# Olympic TT



## The Sundance Kid (Oct 2, 2007)

A month ago I would have said Cancellara in a runaway, then he got beat twice at the TdF. Schumacher has the handicap of being a pretty good bet for the RR as well as the TT. Zabriskie hasn't been racing since he crashed out of the Giro so who knows how he'll do? If pressed I'd probably pick those three in that order but I'm sure someone I'm not thinking of will pull out a good ride. What do you guys think?


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Haven't been able to find a TT course profile. The hillier it gets, better it looks for Schumi.

Zabriskie won't do it; there's nothing like post-TdF form, and you just can't train yourself into that. Witness Contador getting dropped at San Sebastian.


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## Racer C (Jul 18, 2002)

Leipheimer looks ready to hit it hard. I bet Schumi is cooked post-Tour.


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## gray8110 (Dec 11, 2001)

I haven't seen a course profile either, but at Cascade, both Leipheimer and Kristin Armstrong said that the Olympic course was almost identical to that TT which was an out and back with a gradual 3-4% climb to the turnaround and a return on the downhill.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Leipheimer pull it out, but my gut says Cancellara. Zabriskie may have superb form since he's had nothing else to work towards in the last 3 months, but I don't think this kind of course suits him.


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

Startlist

If we're not talking about the usual suspects (Cancellara, Schumi, Leipheimer, Z), I think both Menchov and Karpets, as well as Robert Gesink have medal chances. 

K Armstrong is medaling in women's TT.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

After the road race analysis, I'll say Cancellera has strong points in his favor. He's acclimated to the humidity while Schumacher had a lot of trouble with it today.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Schumacher was also conserving himself for sure so it'll be close maybe.


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## coldass (Oct 8, 2007)

Spartacus must be odds-on after that RR. Could Sanchez get two golds? Evans could get a podium (remember he was born in the tropics). Rogers if he can recover.


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

i think cancellara will win it,he really adjusted well to the humidity and pollution...


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

coldass said:


> Spartacus must be odds-on after that RR. Could Sanchez get two golds? Evans could get a podium (remember he was born in the tropics). Rogers if he can recover.


Only thing I can say for sure is that Sanchez can't win the TT.

Fabian for sure has to be the favorite. Rogers went pretty well in the RR, Evans is always a threat. Denis Menchov can put in a good TT too.

I bet Shumacher doesn't get top 3.


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## Guest (Aug 9, 2008)

How many kms did Z race b/4 he dropped out of the RR?

I'd like to think that Levi was doing the RR mainly to get ready for the TT, since he couldn't get his butt over the last climb in time - but maybe that's just wishful thinking.


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## coldass (Oct 8, 2007)

Einstruzende said:


> Only thing I can say for sure is that Sanchez can't win the TT.
> .



Yeah I guess he won't get a start for Spain... But he is a handy at TT and has has good results. A hard course with the humidity will play a huge hand again.

EDIT: I just read the startlist post. He is in. I therefore think he could be a chance. I'd bet on Evans though. It might be too hilly for Spartacus.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Looks like Schumacher pulled out of the road race because of a nasty headache and humidity took its toll on a lot of other riders
Link


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

I want the Swiss freight train to win this one and I hope he does. 

I also hope Levi makes the podium as he has the ability too. Cadel - well, he'll be up there or close.


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## Kris Flatlander (Sep 9, 2006)

I'm picking Levi as well for an excellent showing in the TT. And who knows, maybe Mick Rogers will show the 3 time TT World Champ form of old too.

And as for some people writing off the chances of riders because they haven't done the Tour. A quick look at the RR results shows 4 of the top 7 riders did not do the Tour including Rebellin (2nd), Kolobnev (4th), Rogers (6th), and Botero (7th).


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## Nimitz (Jul 8, 2004)

when is the TT?

and where is the best place to watch it?

Chad


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## jhamlin38 (Oct 29, 2005)

I'd say the TT will be exciting, and there's no telling who's gonna medal. I'd say that schumi is still a favorite. The effect of heat and humidity of one day, has nothing to do with the next day.
If anything, you ride in it for a couple hours, and you're fine.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Nimitz said:


> when is the TT?
> 
> and where is the best place to watch it?
> 
> Chad


If you're in the US, you can access online Olympic streams via NBC here. Change your location so you can get the right times! If you're outside the US then you need to go to your network tv's site that is airing the Olympics, they will probably have it there too.


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## Guest (Aug 11, 2008)

I have to vote for Levi or Z (go USA!!), even though I think Cancellara will take gold based on his awesome form.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

My predictions:

Gold - Cancellara
Silver - Levi
Bronze - Contador (going on a limb here).


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

By the way, here's a list of start time for the men's TT (and you can find the women's TT link there too in case you're interested). I'm guessing this is china standard time.


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## Syndicate 3 (Jun 13, 2008)

I'm going with:

1- Cancellera 
2- Leipheimer 
3- Rogers
4- Evans
5- Z
6- Contador


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## roadie92 (Jan 21, 2008)

I'm going to guess:

Gold- Cancellera 
Silver- Levi
Bronze- Evans
4th place- Contador
5th place- David Z


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Its good to see some respect for Levi. He frequently gets overlooked at the TT despite excellent results. When is the last time Z was a threat? It seems al ong time ago, he seems like a top ten guy in the TT anymore. I think Pate or VDV could possibly beat him these days although it would be close. I like Syndicate and Roadie92's picks except....is Contador really a top 5 guy? I would think at least Schumacher would be in there + Rogers maybe. It would be awesome if Levi wins , but Fabian is a "beast of a man".


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Holy crap! I just looked at the complete start list, is there really only 39 riders? Why is that? I would think at least 100. How many ride the Worlds? No Wiggins by the way.


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

Wiggins, as I'm sure you know, has 2 track events in the next week. He's a strong gold medal possibility in both the madison and individual pursuit. 

Z earned silver in the 2006 Worlds TT.


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Yea, it seems like 06 was about the last time Zabriskie did anything. I do recall Wiggins was doing track, are there any other pro tour types that we should look for on the Track?


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

Wiggins partner in the madison is Mark Cavendish. 

Bradley McGee is riding individual pursuit for Australia. 

Niki Terpstra (Milram) is riding team pursuit, I think, for the Netherlands.


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## Dr_John (Oct 11, 2005)

> Yea, it seems like 06 was about the last time Zabriskie did anything.


I kind of miss him. While not likely, I'd love to see him take it.


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## ewarnerusa (Oct 11, 2007)

1 - Cancellara
2 - Leipheimer
3 - Schumacher


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Dr_John said:


> I kind of miss him. While not likely, I'd love to see him take it.


He's become a professional mustache enthusiast and hawker of the fine DZ Nuts chamois cream. Bike racing's just a hobby now.


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## Guest (Aug 13, 2008)

Dr_John said:


> I kind of miss him. While not likely, I'd love to see him take it.


Well, he's worked harder on his climbing ability - at the expense of his TTing ability it appears.


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## The Sundance Kid (Oct 2, 2007)

bigmig19 said:


> Holy crap! I just looked at the complete start list, is there really only 39 riders? Why is that? I would think at least 100.


Getting 4-39th doesn't really mean much. If you're not a medal contender you might as well hang out in the olympic village and hit on beach volleyball players. In the road race you can help your stronger teammates or get in an early break for some TV time. In stage races I'm sure the guys who aren't going for the overall or going for the stage win would rather stay in bed than ride their TT.


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## gray8110 (Dec 11, 2001)

Kristin Armstrong just got her gold... Longo was 4th... just 2 seconds from a bronze


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Armstrong wins the gold! Let's hope Levi can produce the silver.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

Way to go Kristin; thank god for NBColympics.com live streaming. 

I'd never heard of Thorburn (make that Dr Thorburn), but she's got an impressive resume http://www.webcorcycling.com/2007/bios/thorburn.html


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## bradsmith (Mar 23, 2008)

And the men's TT is underway.


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## Jason1500 (Apr 1, 2008)

anyone have a feed with announcers (that can be accessed from USA)?


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## heliskyr (Feb 21, 2005)

Coolhand said:


> He's become a professional mustache enthusiast and hawker of the fine DZ Nuts chamois cream. Bike racing's just a hobby now.


Then again, a broken back does not make for good aero position...

DZ's a good man- hope he can salvage his season with a good ride in the TT.

Though Cancellara's one of the classiest riders in the peleton and I want to see him take gold!


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## coldass (Oct 8, 2007)

*Rogers*

I hear Rogers will be good today. My podium....

1. Rogers
2. Contador
3. Evans


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## Dr_John (Oct 11, 2005)

> anyone have a feed with announcers (that can be accessed from USA)?


What, you don't enjoy the enthralling text commentary from Bicycling Magazine?


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

Jason1500 said:


> anyone have a feed with announcers (that can be accessed from USA)?


nbcolympics.com not sure about announcers though as I have a non-intel Mac, which isn't supported


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## Jason1500 (Apr 1, 2008)

Dr_John said:


> What, you don't enjoy the enthralling text commentary from Bicycling Magazine?


:Yawn: give me someone to listen too, heck, I'd take Al Trautwig solo right now!


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## Jason1500 (Apr 1, 2008)

jorgy said:


> nbcolympics.com not sure about announcers though as I have a non-intel Mac, which isn't supported


yeah thats what Dr John was referring too, they have a live feed with no announcers or commentary...just a live text commentary from Bicycling magazine.


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## Iwannapodiumgirl (Jun 26, 2002)

is weather (smog) considered "good" or "not so good" today?

and is it just me, or do others smile when phil uses the term "crash helmet"?

i'm going for a rogers/evans 1/2... or a spaniard!


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Weather is much cooler than the road race, lower 80s in the city with heat index about 90. cooler in the mountains.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

OMG, Contador destroyed Levi on the first time check.


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

come on cancellara.. u can do it...


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Looks like Schumacher is out of the picture now, clearly struggling.


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## gray8110 (Dec 11, 2001)

moabbiker said:


> OMG, Contador destroyed Levi on the first time check.


Contador destroyed everyone on that first time check... the popular picks of Cancellara and Schumacher aren't looking too good 

Contador, Larrson and Leipheimer look like the final podium unless one of them comes under duress or someone else makes a miraculous recovery.


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## AidanM (Aug 11, 2006)

hahaha im in canada and HACKED into the ndb video server, it was soo easy, just typed in a fake zip code ahah


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

WTH is going on, Contador about to pass his teamate?


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

cancellara will power himself on the downhill.. remember the road race.. he's like a motorcycle.. lol


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

What's with the illegal drafting being allowed to go on?


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

omg,contador is blewing the whole field now...


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## gray8110 (Dec 11, 2001)

Actually he caught that guy on the climb and got passed by him on the descent.. if I were the official, I'd be penalizing Contador for riding in his slipstream for too long.


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

i guess he has no choice? its the shortest line and tat dutch rider happen to be on the way..


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Cancellara now smokes away Schumacher.


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

yes cancellara beat contador on tat checkpoint... woot.... schumacher is destroyed.. caught up by cancellara


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Cancellara earning his paycheck now, putting down the power to be first!


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

holy ****.. larrson of sweden has passed 2 people.. kirchen and karpets.. he's doind well.. csc may get top 2? lol


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Things not boding well for Levi.


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## UK rider (Aug 19, 2004)

Larrson swept up Karpets


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

exciting now... larrson is faster than cancellara at the last time check... there's a chance cancellara can pip larrson for gold at the line...


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Levi comes in clearly not happy with his time.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Looks like Contador started off too strong.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Good ride by Cadel but he's definitely lost some of his TT ability this year.


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

larrson did extremely well there... but unfortunately he have to settle for silver.. cancellara totally did well as expected... he won larrson by 33 seconds...

levi got 3rd.. not bad


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Cancellara takes gold!


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

csc takes 1st and 2nd while astana got 3rd and 4th..


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

I'm laughing at how stupid Contador was. He really boinked there.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Contador should get some penalty time for the drafting too. Too much of that gave him major gains.


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

contador was allowed to draft and pace someone to get on the podium? incredible. cheating is the new black.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

alexb618 said:


> contador was allowed to draft and pace someone to get on the podium? incredible. cheating is the new black.


He's fourth so no podium but Cadel once again gets shafted by Contador!


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## OctaBech (Aug 12, 2008)

Amazing Fabian, not alone he's a powerhouse but he's technical rider I've seen, all his energy goes straight into the pedals.

It's going to be interesting to see him as a climber in the future.

EDIT:

If the riders used their own pro bikes then Cervélo sit on:

2 Gold - 1 Kristin Armstrong(GBr) and Fabian Cancellara(Sch)
1 Silver - Gustav Larsson(Swe)
1 Bronze - Karin Thürig(Sch)


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Gotta say my faith has been restored in Levi.


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## Under ACrookedSky (Nov 8, 2005)

moabbiker said:


> Gotta say my faith has been restored in Levi.


Yup, he still doesn't have it.


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

Under ACrookedSky said:


> Yup, he still doesn't have it.


What do you mean? He got third. He beat Contador and Cadel. No other GC beat him.


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## Bry03cobra (Oct 31, 2006)

OctaBech said:


> If the riders used their own pro bikes then Cervélo sit on:
> 
> 2 Gold - 1 Kristin Armstrong(GBr) and Fabian Cancellara(Sch)
> 1 Silver - Gustav Larsson(Swe)
> 1 Bronze - Karin Thürig(Sch)


---------------------
Its been an amazing year for cervelo.
TDF champ
OLY gold TT men
OLY gold TT women
IRONMAN world champ women

3 of those wins on their TT bikes. The IM win was on a P2C.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Official results for those who're waking up in the morning having missed the show!


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

TheDon said:


> What do you mean? He got third. He beat Contador and Cadel. No other GC beat him.


Too bad you win GTs in the mountains, not the time trial.


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

robdamanii said:


> Too bad you win GTs in the mountains, not the time trial.


Yeah. Lance and Indurain were such great climbers  They both won by hanging on in the mountains and TT to victory. Idjut.


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## bramt (Jun 21, 2008)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/cycling/evans-soldiers-on/2008/08/13/1218307011869.html

Looks like Evans has been riding on one knee. No wonder he's lost some TT ability!


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

TheDon said:


> Yeah. Lance and Indurain were such great climbers  They both won by hanging on in the mountains and TT to victory. Idjut.


You just said it yourself. They "hung on" in the mountains. So if you can't climb worth a damn, you lose. And FWIW, Lance was a hell of a climber for what he was. I seem to remember him putting everyone on the road to shame plenty of times.

Levi and Evans are pathetic climbers. There's a reason they're beaten by people who can climb better and don't TT as well. Climbing wins tours, just like you said.

Idjut.


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

are you kidding? evans is probably a top 10 in the world climber, levi top 15-20 in the world - probably better but im being generous to you

i wouldnt say 'pathetic', they are just not specialist climbers unlike sastre/contador/etc


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

robdamanii said:


> You just said it yourself. They "hung on" in the mountains. So if you can't climb worth a damn, you lose. And FWIW, Lance was a hell of a climber for what he was. I seem to remember him putting everyone on the road to shame plenty of times.
> 
> Levi and Evans are pathetic climbers. There's a reason they're beaten by people who can climb better and don't TT as well. Climbing wins tours, just like you said.
> 
> Idjut.


Hanging on during climbs and being fantastic climbers are two very different things. Climbing doesn't win the tour, but bad climbing will lose the tour. If climbing won the tour we'd see more climbers winning the tour than tt'ers. Since the 90's it's been about the time trials.


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## Guest (Aug 14, 2008)

Under ACrookedSky said:


> Yup, he still doesn't have it.


Well since you race, we'll all be waiting with baited breath for you to get invited to the next Olympics and podium. H8tr


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Yea, apparently if you are not a top 3 guy in the world at (fill in the blank), you are pathetic. Levi is awesome, I think he won the TT in the TDF last year once didnt he? Thats a pretty competitive race from what I hear. Mark my words, next time a TT comes up everyone will be taliking about Dave Z again even though he is easily not the top american TT'er, possibly not top 3 right now. Levi's gettin old but that guy has slowly worked his way up to being one of the top TT guys in the world.


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

bigmig19 said:


> Yea, apparently if you are not a top 3 guy in the world at (fill in the blank), you are pathetic. Levi is awesome, I think he won the TT in the TDF last year once didnt he? Thats a pretty competitive race from what I hear. Mark my words, next time a TT comes up everyone will be taliking about Dave Z again even though *he is easily not the top american TT'er, possibly not top 3 right now. * Levi's gettin old but that guy has slowly worked his way up to being one of the top TT guys in the world.



Levi, Vande Velde, and who else? I'm not disagreeing with you, btw, just drawing a blank right now.


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## OctaBech (Aug 12, 2008)

TheDon said:


> Hanging on during climbs and being fantastic climbers are two very different things. Climbing doesn't win the tour, but bad climbing will lose the tour. If climbing won the tour we'd see more climbers winning the tour than tt'ers. Since the 90's it's been about the time trials.


I do not know if it's because you aren't old enough or too old to remember the Tour years with Armstrong but he even made pure climbers eat his dust.

This is why Armstrong was disliked, not due to his nationality but because he had no weakness. The man won on the flat, in iTTs, in TTTs, in the mountains and in sprints with the other GC contenders.
Heck even when more GC contenders joined to isolate Armstrong from his team he still beat the poop out of them(Ulrich all round rider and Iban Mayo specialist climber) in the mountains.

Armstrong was just as much a mountain rider as he was anything else which was proven in the Alpe d'Huez iTT.  



bramt said:


> http://www.smh.com.au/news/cycling/evans-soldiers-on/2008/08/13/1218307011869.html
> 
> Looks like Evans has been riding on one knee. No wonder he's lost some TT ability!


I hope we some day will see Evans without an injury(TdF and Olympics) and a bad team(TdF and Olympics).

A day where he either win or admit he just didn't have it in him.

That and no straight out lies about other teams having 3x the budget of his.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

TheDon said:


> Hanging on during climbs and being fantastic climbers are two very different things. Climbing doesn't win the tour, but bad climbing will lose the tour. If climbing won the tour we'd see more climbers winning the tour than tt'ers. Since the 90's it's been about the time trials.


So you can't win a tour climbing but you can lose it there. That makes absolutely no sense.

Most tours are won in the mountains, NOT in the TT. Fail in the mountains and you're done. Excel in the mountains and you're good. End of story.


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Im just sayin, Levi for sure, possibly VDV as of late, and Z beat Danny Pate by 1 second last year and Pate seems to be getting better. Heck, lately Hincapie (on his days)would challenge him I would argue . Actually he seems like a likable(albeit weird) guy, I just think he gets way too much "favorite" billing when he seems to struggle to stay top 10 this year and last. 06' different story. By all means Im rootin for him though.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

robdamanii said:


> You just said it yourself. They "hung on" in the mountains. So if you can't climb worth a damn, you lose. And FWIW, Lance was a hell of a climber for what he was. I seem to remember him putting everyone on the road to shame plenty of times.
> 
> Levi and Evans are pathetic climbers. There's a reason they're beaten by people who can climb better and don't TT as well. Climbing wins tours, just like you said.
> 
> Idjut.


You lost all credibility when you claimed Evans was a pathetic climber.

He was the third best climber in the Tour this year. Fourth best in the world if you add Contador.


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## Asiago (Jan 28, 2004)

*you've got to be kidding*



TheDon said:


> Yeah. Lance and Indurain were such great climbers  They both won by hanging on in the mountains and TT to victory. Idjut.


Please tell me you're not serious. although your join date is 2006, so maybe you're just new to the sport. But Lance won 7 tours because he was the best TT'er AND the best climber.

Indurain, yes, hung on in the mtn (but still a great climber in the pro cylcing world) and destroyed everyone in the TT's.

Asiago


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

SilasCL said:


> You lost all credibility when you claimed Evans was a pathetic climber.
> 
> He was the third best climber in the Tour this year. Fourth best in the world if you add Contador.


Climbing does not mean "sucking a wheel up a mountain and being unable to attack".

Being a climber means to be able to attack and ride people off your wheel on a mountain. I've seen neither Cadel nor Levi do that with any consistency.

Sastre is a climber. The Schlecks are climbers. Kohl is a climber. Schumi, Vino, Lance, Botero, Soler, Sevillia, Basso, Kloden, Kreutziger...these are all guys that can stick it on a climb and crack other riders. 

Evans can pace, but I wouldn't call him a climber by far, especially since he's now shown that he can lose a race both in the mountains and in the TT.

Face it, the grand tours in this generation are won in the hills, and Cadel and Levi don't have the legs to do that.


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

bigmig19 said:


> Im just sayin, Levi for sure, possibly VDV as of late, and Z beat Danny Pate by 1 second last year and Pate seems to be getting better. Heck, lately Hincapie (on his days)would challenge him I would argue . Actually he seems like a likable(albeit weird) guy, I just think he gets way too much "favorite" billing when he seems to struggle to stay top 10 this year and last. 06' different story. By all means Im rootin for him though.



Levi, VDV, Pate... I'd buy that.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

robdamanii said:


> Climbing does not mean "sucking a wheel up a mountain and being unable to attack".
> 
> Being a climber means to be able to attack and ride people off your wheel on a mountain. I've seen neither Cadel nor Levi do that with any consistency.
> 
> ...


Weird, I always thought climbing was about going from the bottom to the top, and the guys who get to the top first are the best climbers.

Little did I know that Kreuziger is a superior climber, even though he stayed with or lost time to Evans in the mountains.

I agree that Frank Schleck is a better climber than Evans. Andy would be if he was more consistent and didn't lose tons of time on one stage. Kohl is a maybe, let's see him outclimb everyone when he's a known entity going for the overall.

All the rest of those guys on your list are a who's who of dopers who have retired or been thrown out of the sport. Hypothetically they are all better climbers than Evans, and so is Gaul.

Lastly, please tell me how the 2006 Tour was won in the hills.


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

Asiago said:


> Please tell me you're not serious. although your join date is 2006, so maybe you're just new to the sport. But Lance won 7 tours because he was the best TT'er AND the best climber.
> 
> Indurain, yes, hung on in the mtn (but still a great climber in the pro cylcing world) and destroyed everyone in the TT's.
> 
> Asiago


Indurain and Lance were tt'ers first and climbers second. There is a very good reason a lot of polka dot jersey winners aren't Yellow jersey contenders.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

SilasCL said:


> Weird, I always thought climbing was about going from the bottom to the top, and the guys who get to the top first are the best climbers.
> 
> Little did I know that Kreuziger is a superior climber, even though he stayed with or lost time to Evans in the mountains.
> 
> ...


So you're saying that Sastre is a proven doper? Soler, Schumacher, Kloden, Conti...You must have some crystal ball that WADA would love to have... And it also appears that you're asserting that you can't attack a climb without being a dope fiend, is that right?

If you can't attack, you can't win. If you define "climb" as "sit in the bunch and wait for something to happen" then I can't change that, but climbing is not just sucking wheels, unable to take a dig. I'll say it again, that is not how you win a grand tour. Sitting in and EXPECTING to win a final TT will not win you a grand tour; you must do well in the mountains (which does not mean sitting in the bunch and "climbing" with the bunch). End of discussion. This very thing happened to Evans this year. He didn't/couldn't go after Sastre on l'Alpe and expected to get it back in the iTT. That strategy didn't work so well, did it? 

Everyone from at least the past 15 years has won the tour in the mountains, not the TT. A TT seals the deal and you can certainly lose a tour with a poor performance, but (I'll say it again since it seems to have been ignored) if you blow the mountains, you lose a tour. If you can't put in time in the mountains, you lose. Period.

And how was '06 won in the mountains - http://fry.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/tour06/?id=results/tour0617 Now if you want to talk about the technicality of how it was won, ask the patch slapped on the guy's yambag.

And as an aside, lets see who beat Cadel to the top of the hills this year?

Stage 10:
X 1 Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Saunier Duval - Scott 4.19.27 (36.08 km/h)
X 2 Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Saunier Duval - Scott 
3 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 0.28
4 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) Gerolsteiner 1.06
5 Vladimir Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale 2.05
X 6 Riccardo Riccò (Ita) Saunier Duval - Scott 2.17
7 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 

Stage 17:
1 Carlos Sastre (Spa) CSC-Saxo Bank 6.07.58 (34.32 km/h)
2 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 2.03
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 
4 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 2.13
5 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC - Saxo Bank 
6 Vladimir Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale 2.15


Consistently, I see Sastre, Efimkin and Schleck ahead of Evans. I'd say Andy S. is just as good if not better than his brother, if not for a bad day on Hautecam. Sanchez is still among some of the best. Valverde, I question. Forget SD guys, just because we'll play the "doping is evil and makes you a pariah" game. Kohl won the KOM and placed 3rd on GC. Coincidence?

Climbing with an aggressive, attacking style will put you in position to win a grand tour. Being able to ride a halfway decent TT will assure that. Falling over 3 times (a la Chicken) can guarantee you lose a grand tour in a TT. So back to the original point...Evans failed somewhere, and it certainly wasn't in the TT. Or maybe it was the TT, AND the mountains. Only he will ever know, and he'd rather blame his team than his own shortcomings.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

TheDon said:


> Indurain and Lance were tt'ers first and climbers second. There is a very good reason a lot of polka dot jersey winners aren't Yellow jersey contenders.


Because the KoM is almost always won by someone who is willing to go off on single suicide breakaways and is not a known GC threat. The KoM is won not primarily because of skill in the mountains, but because the peloton will let them go out on wild breaks. If Mig or Lance had tried to solo for KoM points they never would have gotten 10 yards out of the peloton.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

robdamanii said:


> So you're saying that Sastre is a proven doper? Soler, Schumacher, Kloden, Conti...You must have some crystal ball that WADA would love to have... And it also appears that you're asserting that you can't attack a climb without being a dope fiend, is that right?
> 
> If you can't attack, you can't win. If you define "climb" as "sit in the bunch and wait for something to happen" then I can't change that, but climbing is not just sucking wheels, unable to take a dig. I'll say it again, that is not how you win a grand tour. Sitting in and EXPECTING to win a final TT will not win you a grand tour; you must do well in the mountains (which does not mean sitting in the bunch and "climbing" with the bunch). End of discussion. This very thing happened to Evans this year. He didn't/couldn't go after Sastre on l'Alpe and expected to get it back in the iTT. That strategy didn't work so well, did it?
> 
> ...


What about Jan in 97? I vote that he won that one in the TTs and hung on in the mountains. Same goes for Indurain in 95.

The last few tours have been won by one of the best climbers in the race, no argument from me there.

The only assertion I'm making is that Evans is one of the top 4 climbers right now, and you've done nothing to disprove that. Cherry picking two of the mountain top finished and declaring them the ultimate arbiter of climbing ability is misleading at best.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/tour08/?id=results/tour086
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/tour08/?id=results/tour0815

Those are the other two, and the only guys who consistently outclimbed Evans are the ones I mentioned. You can try to make some obscure point about how a climber needs to be able to attack with a certain style to be a climber, but it's just baloney. By that standard Bettini is a climber more so than Ullrich, and who would you bet on to win a GT?


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

And I'm making the assertion that on any given day there are a dozen people that will outclimb Evans because he has no ability to attack on the slopes. And I'm also making the assertion that he will continue to lose grand tours until he can do that. The same goes for most competitors. If you rely on the final iTT to win, you rarely will.

And I picked those two mountaintop finishes because those were the two points in which the climbers, which you claim Evans is one of the top four in the world, can put major time into their rivals. He did not, and he will not in the future. Same goes for Levi.

A great TT rider does not make a tour winner. Sorry.


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## bnoojin (Mar 24, 2002)

robdamanii said:


> So you're saying that Sastre is a proven doper? Soler, Schumacher, Kloden, Conti...You must have some crystal ball that WADA would love to have... And it also appears that you're asserting that you can't attack a climb without being a dope fiend, is that right?
> 
> If you can't attack, you can't win. If you define "climb" as "sit in the bunch and wait for something to happen" then I can't change that, but climbing is not just sucking wheels, unable to take a dig. I'll say it again, that is not how you win a grand tour. Sitting in and EXPECTING to win a final TT will not win you a grand tour; you must do well in the mountains (which does not mean sitting in the bunch and "climbing" with the bunch). End of discussion. This very thing happened to Evans this year. He didn't/couldn't go after Sastre on l'Alpe and expected to get it back in the iTT. That strategy didn't work so well, did it?
> 
> ...



it would appear you never watched an Indurain Tour victory.


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

This argument never fails to entertain. Clearly you "can" win by climbing ridiculously well alone(see Pantani) but others have won just climbing good and ripping the TT. I think the statement "it can be lost in the hills" is acurate. Lose 15 minutes in the mountais and who cares about TT, stay with em in the mountains and you gotta shot.
Now as far as Evans goes, I know this much, every single time there is a key mountain stage, (world class) guys get spit out the back slowly but surely until there is just 1-5 guys left and Cadel is virtually ALWAYS one of them. Thats a fact. He aint Pantani,LA or even Sastre, the crazy good climbers, but he is a helluva lot better day to day than "top 12". He's always there! And please dont bring the polka dot jersey into this, there are threads a plenty about that pseudo-climber-points race (nearly never won by the best climber). Sorry, the dots are my pet peeve.


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

bigmig19 said:


> This argument never fails to entertain. Clearly you "can" win by climbing ridiculously well alone(see Pantani) but others have won just climbing good and ripping the TT. I think the statement "it can be lost in the hills" is acurate. Lose 15 minutes in the mountais and who cares about TT, stay with em in the mountains and you gotta shot.
> Now as far as Evans goes, I know this much, every single time there is a key mountain stage, (world class) guys get spit out the back slowly but surely until there is just 1-5 guys left and Cadel is virtually ALWAYS one of them. Thats a fact. He aint Pantani,LA or even Sastre, the crazy good climbers, but he is a helluva lot better day to day than "top 12". He's always there! And please dont bring the polka dot jersey into this, there are threads a plenty about that pseudo-climber-points race (nearly never won by the best climber). Sorry, the dots are my pet peeve.


+1

hindsight is 20-20, but most of us thought Evans had done enough prior to the final ITT. It didn't turn out that way, but I think it's telling that many were surprised that Sastre hung on/Evans didn't deliver in the final TT.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

justinb said:


> many were surprised that Sastre hung on/Evans didn't deliver in the final TT.


Delighted, actually.


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