# Tour Stage 17 - 179k



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

I have not seen the stage, but read a bit. Holy God of Thunder! I had been giving Garmin a hard time all season, especially with the way they were handling Thor, Tyle, and Haussler. Seemed like too many sprinters in the kitchen, and Thor was being put on the back burner. Well, one reason you put a dish on the backburner is to slowly develop the flavors ad let it mature until it is just right. Maybe Vaughters would go more for the "no wine before its time" principle, but same idea. And it looks like they have done that with Thor. The tour is not the entire season, but it can sure make your season.

Looks like Andy may be suffering a bit, and Contador was able to chip away at some time. Cadel descended like a madman, and looks to be the biggest GC threat to Voeckler.
Wait, did that really get typed?

Stage 17 is 179k of Alps.Cat3, Sprint, Cat3, Dinner, Cat2 (topping out at the 1/2 way mark), sharp descent, Cat1, looooooooong descent, Cat2 topping out with an 8k descent to the finish.

One of the Sanchezes? The Cat1 into Cat2 could be Contador's savior. Then again, Stage 18 has only 4 climbs Four *HC *climbs, including one as the Galibier summit finish. That final climb doesn't look too steep for Andy. I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's say Roman K.

Stage 17 picks, yall?


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

It looks like a good stage for Voeckler and Sanchez. That's a lot of descending. Philippe Gilber ftw!

fc


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Rojas and Gilbert are going try and take time out of Cav at the intermediate. Break away again like today for the win. I would love to see Roy get a stage after all the work he has done and come up empty. GC contenders will give a crack at cracking Voekler, but not put real work in saving energy for the next days Monster stage.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

What's the weather forecast? If it's raining, look for a replay of today's stage.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

I feel like me might see a reprisal of today. A break going clear and imploding on the final climb with a small group or solo rider going to the win. Behind Contidor attacking doubly so if its raining.


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

Would love to see Movistar and Omega controlling the break more today - if they hadn't let the riders get such a lead Gilbert and Rojas would have bit into Cav's points lead.


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## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

Andy Schleck is already concerned about the descent on this stage so its possible he could loose another chunk of time. http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/aso-denies-descents-in-tour-de-france-are-too-dangerous

I think this stage will pan out similar to the last one with Conti attacking again on the last climb and bombing it downhill into the finish. Cadel to be right there with him.

A breakaway will get the stage win but the GC could be narrowed down again.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

Encore une fois. The last 60k looks like a ski jump. If it rains Andy'll go home, with or without his bike.


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## Chainstay (Mar 13, 2004)

Sojourneyman said:


> Would love to see Movistar and Omega controlling the break more today - if they hadn't let the riders get such a lead Gilbert and Rojas would have bit into Cav's points lead.


It's not the size of the lead but the size of the break that they may try to control. That can only be done by chasing down the larger breaks but that's hard because teams with riders in the break won't help. Rojas and Gilbert can't get in the break themselves because HTC won't let it go.

Cav, of course gets the best team support going.


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## windmic (Jun 11, 2007)

Thor, and Cancellera might be good bets if only based on a break going away and the one with the most ridiculous decending skills hitting the line first. But, there is just altogether too much climbing going on in this stage for the likes of them even if Thor is gaining respect for getting up the hills. I would bet on someone who can climb reasonably well and descend better. Cadel, Ryder are obvious possibilities. Lets not overlook Tommy D. Levi has been hiding out lately, and I can't help but think one of these stages he has marked for a win. I don't think AC has the skills for this stage. Voeckler and Sanchez don't impress me on this terrain either.


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## tricycletalent (Apr 2, 2005)

I'd love to see Sanchez try something Landis-style. I think he should ride across Contador's front wheel, thereafter aptly deserving the nickname dirty sanchez.


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

windmic said:


> Thor, and Cancellera might be good bets if only based on a break going away and the one with the most ridiculous decending skills hitting the line first. But, there is just altogether too much climbing going on in this stage for the likes of them even if Thor is gaining respect for getting up the hills. I would bet on someone who can climb reasonably well and descend better. Cadel, Ryder are obvious possibilities. Lets not overlook Tommy D. Levi has been hiding out lately, and I can't help but think one of these stages he has marked for a win. I don't think AC has the skills for this stage. Voeckler and Sanchez don't impress me on this terrain either.


Not sure if Levi's been struggling lately or if he's just losing time so he can get in a break. It's about time for Radioshack to do something to at least attempt to redeem what has been a disaster for them, so I think Levi getting into a break is an intriguing possibility. But in the end, Andy will win because he will get blown off the top of the mountain by a stiff breeze and land gently at the finish line like an autumn leaf. You heard it here first.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

erj549 said:


> Not sure if Levi's been struggling lately or if he's just losing time so he can get in a break.


Levi has been pretty successful at losing time, that's for sure. He doesn't seem like the daring breakaway type to me. Maybe he can grind out a win on a summit finish while the others play cat and mouse, but that doesn't seem likely either. I think RadioShack will just ride out the tour while looking forward to heading home. Maybe they can dominate the Tour of Colorado?


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## F45 (Nov 25, 2010)

tricycletalent said:


> I'd love to see Sanchez try something Landis-style. I think he should ride across Contador's front wheel, thereafter aptly deserving the nickname dirty sanchez.


Not likely. Sanchez has been acting like Contador's unofficial domestique.


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## serpico7 (Jul 11, 2006)

dougydee said:


> Andy Schleck is already concerned about the descent on this stage so its possible he could loose another chunk of time.
> 
> I think this stage will pan out similar to the last one with Conti attacking again on the last climb and bombing it downhill into the finish. Cadel to be right there with him.
> 
> A breakaway will get the stage win but the GC could be narrowed down again.


Agreed.

If you're Contador and you know that the whole descent thing is in the Schlecks' minds from Stage 16 and they're worried about the finish on Stage 17, why not do the same thing again, rain or no rain? Unlike the Shlecks, Contador knows how to hurt a vulnerable competitor.

I'd love to see AC mount a surprise attack during the second half of the Cat 1 climb, splinter the favorites group, take whoever can keep up over the top, fly down, scamper over the Cat 2 and sail on home. He could eliminate everyone but Evans tomorrow. But that's probably too risky given the upcoming stages. So an attack on the final climb is more realistic, but that's the one his rivals will be expecting. Of course, with Contador, expecting an attack and being able to accelerate with him are two different things.


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## Wildcard (Apr 29, 2011)

It si going to be a cracker!!

WIll be a breakaway of two or three and there will be a Team Sky rider in there maybe Simon Gerrans.

Contador and Evans to get more time on the rest.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

Any chances for Contador to break down? They guy has a Giro on him.

Sure there are more chances for that in the next two grueling stages... OTOH, stupid steep slopes is what he does best, so the next stages Galibier-Alp suit him better in that regard.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

F45 said:


> Not likely. Sanchez has been acting like Contador's unofficial domestique.


For good reason. Whenever Sammy Sanchez attacks, Contador is never the one who reels him back in.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

Maybe Tejay Van Garderen will be able to win this one.


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

This descent is nuts! These guys are overcooking it all over the place. Hivert has blown 3 turns. And Voeckler 2 already. Even Sammy blew one but caught back up quickly. taking all the risks!


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## aengbretson (Sep 17, 2009)

What a descent by Contador! I was afraid he'd blow things up, great work by Frandy, Evans, et al. to wipe out that gap on the flat afterwards...


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## serpico7 (Jul 11, 2006)

Great job by Schleckettes/Evans group to nail it back by the line.

Andy and Frank could learn from Contador's attitude. The man is 3x TdF champ, and arguably the best climber in the world, and even after failing to get a gap on the climb, he went for the jugular on a narrow, shaded, technical descent. He will try to take advantage wherever he can. He understands that bike racing is more than just climbing and he knows how to attack a competitor's weakness.

I'm not a fan of El Pistolero, but I have a lot of respect for his racing attitude.


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## Wile_E_Coyote (Jul 15, 2011)

serpico7 said:


> Andy and Frank could learn from Contador's attitude. The man is 3x TdF champ, and arguably the best climber in the world, and even after failing to get a gap on the climb, he went for the jugular on a narrow, shaded, technical descent. He will try to take advantage wherever he can. He understands that bike racing is more than just climbing and he knows how to attack a competitor's weakness.


^ This

To be a champion, you have to take risks. And the best of the best always work out a way to win.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

F45 said:


> Not likely. Sanchez has been acting like Contador's unofficial domestique.


Well, the two climbs in the Pyrenees where he rode away from Contador and gained time on him say otherwise. All I see is Sanchez, a contender for the podium, working with Contador when it is in his interest to do so.

With Basso losing 27 seconds to the other contenders today, Sanchez's podium chances are again improved.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

Contador had to attack because of his time gap. The rest let him go, confident they would catch him on the descent/run-in. 

The net effect, was both took a chance.....and contador lost. He ended up burning a match with no gain.

IMO

Len


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## serpico7 (Jul 11, 2006)

harlond said:


> All I see is Sanchez, a contender for the podium, working with Contador when it is in his interest to do so.
> 
> With Basso losing 27 seconds to the other contenders today, Sanchez's podium chances are again improved.


Yep, I see it the same way.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Len J said:


> Contador had to attack because of his time gap. The rest let him go, confident they would catch him on the descent/run-in.
> 
> The net effect, was both took a chance.....and contador lost. He ended up burning a match with no gain.
> 
> ...


I agree Alberto had to attack because he needs to take back time on Evans et al any place he can. However I don't think they "let him go" Berto took some pretty big risks and Evans got a bit caught out no one really wanted to gamble thay could bring Contidor back but he didn't give them a choice and went for it. They did bring him back but at least he tried something rather than just sitting around hoping someone would hand him the race.


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## jswilson64 (May 20, 2008)

Sheesh, when are the Shleck boys going to do something besides counter-punch. Well, not even that, more like just covering up - they're not punching at all. I looked at today, tomorrow and Friday thinking Andy would HAVE to do something today, or at least try. Now he has left it all for Thursday and Friday, and personally I think Friday is too late. I really think they missed their opportunity in the Pyrenees to put the hurt on 'Bert, and now I feel their chance is gone.

I think it's time for a secret agreement between ASO, UCI, and WADA. Voeckler gets grabbed up by some goons this evening and shot up with every PED on the planet, and goes on to win the TdF. He has ridden admirably and deserves it so much more than the wheel-covering Schlecks.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

32and3cross said:


> I agree Alberto had to attack because he needs to take back time on Evans et al any place he can. However I don't think they "let him go" Berto took some pretty big risks and Evans got a bit caught out no one really wanted to gamble thay could bring Contidor back but he didn't give them a choice and went for it. They did bring him back but at least he tried something rather than just sitting around hoping someone would hand him the race.


I disagree. It looked to me like they were OK with him getting some advantage on the climb. That tells me they were comfortable they could chase him down. Evans has chased down every other attack but this one...there are only a few reasons why:

1.) He couldn't. I don't buy that based on what he has done w every other attack.

2.) he chose not to.

IMO

Len


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Len J said:


> Contador had to attack because of his time gap. The rest let him go, confident they would catch him on the descent/run-in.
> 
> The net effect, was both took a chance.....and contador lost. He ended up burning a match with no gain.
> 
> ...


He didn't gain on the Schlecks, but he did gain on Voeckler, and is now likely to podium at the absolute worst.

Also, while he certainly went hard on the descent and flat, didn't his competitors have to do a similar effort to catch him, especially considering they lost time on the descent? There were not that many riders to do the work in that group.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

SilasCL said:


> He didn't gain on the Schlecks, but he did gain on Voeckler, and is now likely to podium at the absolute worst.
> 
> Also, while he certainly went hard on the descent and flat, didn't his competitors have to do a similar effort to catch him, especially considering they lost time on the descent? There were not that many riders to do the work in that group.


No since they were in a a larger group they each had to spend less time on the front - that is IF everone was working but Im guessing it was Evans and Frank doing the biggest share.


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

32and3cross said:


> I agree Alberto had to attack because he needs to take back time on Evans et al any place he can. However I don't think they "let him go" Berto took some pretty big risks and Evans got a bit caught out no one really wanted to gamble thay could bring Contidor back but he didn't give them a choice and went for it. They did bring him back but at least he tried something rather than just sitting around hoping someone would hand him the race.


Yep, AC has nothing to lose and everything to gain, it's the opposite for Evans who may as well be wearing yellow as he is the benchmark the other GC's are gauging. Evans would have preferred today to lose a couple of seconds and play it safe than overcook it and lose a lot like Voeckler did. That decent has to be one of the most treacherous I've seen, narrow, deceiving and plenty of things to run into.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

SilasCL said:


> He didn't gain on the Schlecks, but he did gain on Voeckler, and is now likely to podium at the absolute worst.
> 
> Also, while he certainly went hard on the descent and flat, didn't his competitors have to do a similar effort to catch him, especially considering they lost time on the descent? There were not that many riders to do the work in that group.


Meh. Contador seems to constantly get knocked for attacking too often. At least this time, more people are also knocking the Schlecks for not attacking enough. 

I'm solidly in the camp that believes Contador not only is fun to watch because he doesn't just play by the numbers to attack only when expected, but he also knows himself better than the peanut gallery and is pretty good at judging the risk versus reward of his attacks. You can't argue with his grand tour results.

Give me an aggressive rider like him with that kind of talent over passive contenders like the Schlecks any day of the week. 

It's also nice to see Evans get more aggressive over the past couple years. Even though I find it hard to like Evans, just think if he had ridden this way his whole career. Is he just in better shape, or has he gotten more determined and aggressive as well? I lean towards the latter.


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

Contador is gaining a fan out of me over the past few days. Definitely fun to watch and seems to do whatever the hell he thinks is best. that makes for good racing.

But the Schlecks were the big winners today by not losing time. There was no way they were going to attack anywhere with the descents at the end. Would have been pointless. so to not lose time today is a W for them.

On a side note, i guess i never realized how poor of a descender Basso is. I'm assuming he crested the summit with the group and still lost time to Schleck et al. and did so yesterday as well.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

wiz525 said:


> On a side note, i guess i never realized how poor of a descender Basso is. I'm assuming he crested the summit with the group and still lost time to Schleck et al. and did so yesterday as well.


Maybe Basso stopped for refreshments on the same patio as Hivert and Voeckler?


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

nate said:


> Meh. Contador seems to constantly get knocked for attacking too often. At least this time, more people are also knocking the Schlecks for not attacking enough.
> 
> I'm solidly in the camp that believes Contador not only is fun to watch because he doesn't just play by the numbers to attack only when expected, but he also knows himself better than the peanut gallery and is pretty good at judging the risk versus reward of his attacks. You can't argue with his grand tour results.
> 
> ...


I wasn't knocking him...I said he had to try because of his time defecit.

My only point is he has had to burn a match the others didn't....don't know if that will hurt him or not, but it's something to watch, because you know he is going to attack tomorrow and Friday and then have the ITT.

Len


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

wiz525 said:


> On a side note, i guess i never realized how poor of a descender Basso is. I'm assuming he crested the summit with the group and still lost time to Schleck et al. and did so yesterday as well.


I read somewhere he crashed. Maybe he's a bad descender, I don't know, but Voeckler is a pretty good descender and he crashed twice, and Sanchez at one point locked up his front brake so hard his rear wheel was six inches off the ground. That was a hairy descent.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Len J said:


> I disagree. It looked to me like they were OK with him getting some advantage on the climb. That tells me they were comfortable they could chase him down.


I don't understand how they could think that in these particular circumstances. There was only 3K of flat after the descent, so very little distance in which to close the gap. Andy gave up a minute in yesterday's descent. So while this was shorter, the possibility of a gap too large to be closed down in 3K is real. Moreover, the chasers don't know at the point that Contador and Sanchez get away what the gap will be at the bottom, and they don't know who is going to be in the group and willing to chase when they get to the bottom of what they know is a difficult descent. There's always uncertainty and ambiguity, but I just can't imagine the Schlecks or Basso concluding that they could let two excellent descenders like Contador and Sanchez ride away that close to the finish.

Cadel may feel he has enough of a gap on Contador that he can concede some time or that he could close any gap on the descent. But I still find it hard to believe he would just let Contador ride away that close to the finish.


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

harlond said:


> I read somewhere he crashed. Maybe he's a bad descender, I don't know, but Voeckler is a pretty good descender and he crashed twice, and Sanchez at one point locked up his front brake so hard his rear wheel was six inches off the ground. That was a hairy descent.


ah. hadn't heard that yet, but will look into it. And agree, to see Voeckler and Sammy overcook it shows just how hairy that descent was. They're 2 of the best.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

harlond said:


> I read somewhere he crashed. Maybe he's a bad descender, I don't know, but Voeckler is a pretty good descender and he crashed twice, and Sanchez at one point locked up his front brake so hard his rear wheel was six inches off the ground. That was a hairy descent.


I think the pressure got to Voeckler today and he felt that he had to try and follow Contador - that surely did him no favors. Good eye, I didn't notice Sanchez' back wheel coming off the ground.


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## ksl316 (Jul 30, 2008)

wiz525 said:


> On a side note, i guess i never realized how poor of a descender Basso is. I'm assuming he crested the summit with the group and still lost time to Schleck et al. and did so yesterday as well.


Read an article couple of years ago describing his descending skill as a 50lb sack of potato's going downhill.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

harlond said:


> I don't understand how they could think that in these particular circumstances. There was only 3K of flat after the descent, so very little distance in which to close the gap. Andy gave up a minute in yesterday's descent. So while this was shorter, the possibility of a gap too large to be closed down in 3K is real. Moreover, the chasers don't know at the point that Contador and Sanchez get away what the gap will be at the bottom, and they don't know who is going to be in the group and willing to chase when they get to the bottom of what they know is a difficult descent. There's always uncertainty and ambiguity, but I just can't imagine the Schlecks or Basso concluding that they could let two excellent descenders like Contador and Sanchez ride away that close to the finish.
> 
> Cadel may feel he has enough of a gap on Contador that he can concede some time or that he could close any gap on the descent. But I still find it hard to believe he would just let Contador ride away that close to the finish.


I think they knew:

a.) They had a large enough group to chase (which they did)
&
b.) That there was enough time to make up most of the gap. 

I suspect they were watching how large the gap was and acting accordingly. Each of the GC contenders at this point in the race, has to balance a hard effort against what is going to be required in the next 3 days and what is at stake. 

Cadel knows he can afford to lose a small amount of time to Contador today, to potentially be stronger the next 3 days and still win.

The Schecks know that they blew yesterday, and Andy at least probably figures he can afford a small gap and still be OK. 

Sanchez and Contador OTOH, need time.

I'm sure there was a lot of instruction for the team cars as to what to do or not do. 

The only other option is that you think they couldn't go, and while that might be true of Andy, I haven't seen anything yet that indicates that that is true of Cadel.

The tour is a series of decisions about using or not using energy.

What do you think happened?

len


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## jonstringer (Oct 4, 2009)

The best tactical move that Frandy has made thus far is paying other riders to make AC crash. This is a fact btw, not supported by any evidence whatsoever.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Len J said:


> I think they knew:
> 
> a.) They had a large enough group to chase (which they did)
> &
> ...


I don't think they knew what the gap was until they were on the flat. On the descent, the conditions were too difficult for the motorcycles to move back and forth very much, so I think it was all a fog until they were off the mountain. That's from what I could see.

From the article about Cadel now on CN, it appears that what happened is that Contador attacked on the descent and Cadel and Cunego got stuck behind Andy. After watching Voeckler go off the road twice, Cadel eschewed risktaking until the flats when he, the Schlecks,and Cunego were able to close the gap. I don't think anybody wanted AC and SS to get away. While the four of them probably used less energy than AC and SS, they still had to use more energy to chase back on than they would have used otherwise. 

Maybe Andy should have let Cadel or Cunego lead, but probably he thought he had a better chance of avoiding being dropped by leading.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

harlond said:


> I don't think they knew what the gap was until they were on the flat. On the descent, the conditions were too difficult for the motorcycles to move back and forth very much, so I think it was all a fog until they were off the mountain. That's from what I could see.
> 
> From the article about Cadel now on CN, it appears that what happened is that Contador attacked on the descent and Cadel and Cunego got stuck behind Andy. After watching Voeckler go off the road twice, Cadel eschewed risktaking until the flats when he, the Schlecks,and Cunego were able to close the gap. I don't think anybody wanted AC and SS to get away. While the four of them probably used less energy than AC and SS, they still had to use more energy to chase back on than they would have used otherwise.
> 
> Maybe Andy should have let Cadel or Cunego lead, but probably he thought he had a better chance of avoiding being dropped by leading.


I was half wattching....didn't Contador gap them on the climb........they knew what the Gap was the entire climb. That is when they let him go....when he attacked on the climb.

Other than that I agree with you.

len


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

Just had to. We've got two guys in this race and four wins. Beat that.

(...ok ok ok. Isle of Man has one guy and God knows how many wins...)


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Len J said:


> I was half wattching....didn't Contador gap them on the climb........they knew what the Gap was the entire climb. That is when they let him go....when he attacked on the climb.
> 
> Other than that I agree with you.
> 
> len


Nope he gapped them attacking on the descent and Cadel was blocked by Andy.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

32and3cross said:


> Nope he gapped them attacking on the descent and Cadel was blocked by Andy.


D'uh......teach me to try to work and watch at the same time.

Len


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

kbwh said:


> Just had to. We've got two guys in this race and four wins. Beat that.
> 
> (...ok ok ok. Isle of Man has one guy and God knows how many wins...)


If Edvald Boasson Hagen plans to keep on winning stages, he needs to change his name so we american fans know what to call him:
Baby Thor (aka Mini-Thor, or, if you are italian, Thorino)
also acceptable:
Eddy Haagen-Dazs.


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## The Tedinator (Mar 12, 2004)

I think Bobke called him "Eddie-Bo-Hog". I like that. Edvald is da man!


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

His teammates call him Eddy Boss.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

kbwh said:


> His teammates call him Eddy Boss.


Or just "the boss", I hear. :thumbsup:


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

AJL said:


> Or just "the boss", I hear. :thumbsup:


you mean Armstrong's old nickname? I don't think it's such a good idea. Unless Springsteen can make it cool again.


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## paredown (Oct 18, 2006)

ukbloke said:


> Maybe Basso stopped for refreshments on the same patio as Hivert and Voeckler?


LOL'd--repped for that! 

(Props to both of course for neither hitting the fence, car, nor going over the edge...)


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