# Can Tejay van Garderen win a Tour de France (or other major GT)



## Matr1x (May 19, 2013)

I watched how he rode in the Amgen, and he looked calm and ready every stage. He is a young guy, and while not "the best" climber, he is showing marked improvements.

Many say he is a classic or short (7 stage) guy, and a GT is not in the cards. But he did finish 5th in the Tour de France last year, and that was as a support rider for Evans. Meaning to me, he can ride with the big guns.

Whats your take on his future as a GT GC rider?


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## Steinekenbda (Feb 14, 2013)

Why not he's relatively young, and weren't people saying if Evans wasn't defending he really should have been supporting deejay? Based on tour form last year that is


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

You never really know if somebody has the tools to win it or not until they finish in the top 5 ... and even then, that can be meaningless.

He looked good at TOC ... but it's a week long stage race that is used to build fitness for the TDF. How many times did Leipheimer win the TOC and never even get on the podium at the TDF? 3 or 4 times?

There is a big difference between doing well in a one week stage race and a three week stage race. He may have the tools, but we won't know it for a couple more years and even if he does have the tools ... he may never win one. It takes more than talent to win a TDF, there is a lot of luck, planning and mix of opponents that take place to win one.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

There are a number of possible winners out there. It's easy to get caught up in Tejay-mania as one watches the ToC.

The problem is that there are a lot of young riders coming up that may prove to be better all-rounders than Tejay in a couple of years. The history books of cycling are filled with riders who burned brightly for one or two seasons and then were never heard from again.

While I'd be glad to see Tejay be anointed the next great thing - I suspect it would be premature to do so at this point.

Let Andy Schleck be a lesson to us all - the guy has gobs of natural talent and won a TdF (well, sort of) - but will he ever win another? Lots can happen between a golden jersey in Cali and a yellow jersey in France - I'll reserve judgement for now. But I suspect an American rider will win one of the GTs again soon enough (Tejay is one possibility) - but perhaps not the TdF anytime soon.


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## looigi (Nov 24, 2010)

Wookiebiker said:


> You never really know if somebody has the tools to win it or not until they finish in the top 5 ... and even then, that can be meaningless....


Reading this, I assume you know that Tejay finished #5 in the TDF general classification last year, right? And that was after holding back to help Cadel Evans.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

I think TJ is really their first option in the Tour de France this year. Cadel might be able to win the Giro, but no way a 34-year-old guy is going to win Giro-Tour double.Thats just not realistic.


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

looigi said:


> Reading this, I assume you know that Tejay finished #5 in the TDF general classification last year, right? And that was after holding back to help Cadel Evans.


I didn't pay attention to the final results last year ... however, that result doesn't mean squat when it comes to actually winning the TDF due to so many other factors coming into play. He is obviously a talented rider, but as others have said ... we've seen that before. Many times riders are good enough to be very, very competitive, but lack the ability to win it.

He might win it one day, but the question is will he? I could see a situation like Armstrong and Ullrich ... Ullrich was a great rider, but could never get over the top on Armstrong ... the same could happen with Froome and Van Garderen (or another good young rider).


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## jsedlak (Jun 17, 2008)

Can he? Yes.
Will he? I don't know.

He needs a tour similar to one that suits wiggins. And he needs a team that supports him 100%.


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## Yamilo (Sep 18, 2012)

Fireform said:


> I think TJ is really their first option in the Tour de France this year. Cadel might be able to win the Giro, but no way a 34-year-old guy is going to win Giro-Tour double.Thats just not realistic.


36. HUGE difference. Btw i agree with what you said.


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## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

didn't pay too close attention at ToC to know how rounded he is, although from what I gathered he's not as one-sided as Andy.


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## Fignon's Barber (Mar 2, 2004)

Last year I predicted that in 3 years it would be a battle between TJVG and thibeault pinot for a Tour win, maybe even on par with the iconic lemond/fignon battle. I stand by that. That fact that cadel has shown in the Giro that GT aspirations are past him might move Tejay up in the bmc hierarchy, but give him 2 more years and he will be a Tour favorite.


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## looigi (Nov 24, 2010)

Wookiebiker said:


> I didn't pay attention to the final results last year ... however, that result doesn't mean squat when it comes to actually winning the TDF...


Yes. It's an interesting coincidence(?) that you said "You never really know if somebody has the tools to win it or not until they finish in the top 5... and even then, that can be meaningless" and Tejay did happen to finish 5th last year. 

IMO, finishing 5th and getting the white jersey (meaning many years left to keep trying, barring catastrophe) would bode well, but certainly not guarantee winning.

On another note: The question is whether or not you think he will win it. Choosing "time will tell" is a wimpy cop-out. Of course time will tell. It always does.


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

looigi said:


> On another note: The question is whether or not you think he will win it. Choosing "time will tell" is a wimpy cop-out. Of course time will tell. It always does.


The reality is there is no other answer ... unless you can see the future and if you can, I'd like to ask you about some Powerball numbers.

There have been enough "White Jersey" winners that never actually won the Tour to let us know that just because you win that jersey doesn't mean you will win the "Yellow Jersey". There have also been enough non-winners that did win to tell you it doesn't matter if you won "White" or not.

The reality is we don't know and won't know until he either wins one or retires without a win at the TDF. Does he have the tools? Sure, but then so do a lot of other riders that could get in his way.

There is no "Wimpy Cop-Out" answer ... just the truth in this case.


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## bballr4567 (Jul 17, 2012)

With him supporting Evans so much and still having the strength to just go when he needed shows he just might win it. The ToC was pretty good shape up this year as it had insanely hot weather, wind and a pretty decent mountain climb. Can he do it for 3 weeks? One can only hope. 

I think that his ITT is what really sets him apart. The fact he finished 4th in the prologue, stage 9 ITT and 7th in the stage 19th ITT is huge. He is a very strong rider where he can gain lots of time rather easily. 

At 24, we have quite a few years to find out. I dont think he will win this year but he certainly should be BMCs #1 rider.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

TJVG doesn't have the pop on the climbs to come out and say "yes he will crush it". With Rodriguez not racing the Giro this year, he will be fresher for the Tour. Froome will have great legs too. Can TJVG keep up with Rodriguez on the attacks? I don't think he can. He has many years to go still and the right combination of stages and the right group of people will allow for it some day.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

spookyload said:


> TJVG doesn't have the pop on the climbs to come out and say "yes he will crush it". With Rodriguez not racing the Giro this year, he will be fresher for the Tour. Froome will have great legs too. Can TJVG keep up with Rodriguez on the attacks? I don't think he can. He has many years to go still and the right combination of stages and the right group of people will allow for it some day.


I agree with what you've said. Then again, with the Tour, JRod and Froome could get sick or injured or have a bad day and Teejay could wind up on top step of the podium...or not.


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## looigi (Nov 24, 2010)

Wookiebiker said:


> The reality is there is no other answer ... unless you can see the future...


I disagree. The question is can he, not will he. Certainly he can, but that's not saying he will. It might take some unlikely confluence of factors to enable him to win, but it could happen. Last year for example. If two of the leaders came down with something and the other two crashed out (and/or if Cadel abandoned early so he wasn't holding Tejay back) he conceivably could have been #1. Not likely, but not impossible either.


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

looigi said:


> I disagree. The question is can he, not will he. Certainly he can, but that's not saying he will. It might take some unlikely confluence of factors to enable him to win, but it could happen.


From that line of thinking ... Cavendish "Could" win the TDF if the right circumstances took place. Will he, NO! But if everything fell into place he could.

That's why the question is stupid and the only answer is wait and see. Tons of riders "Could" win, but only a very select few will.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Fireform said:


> I think TJ is really their first option in the Tour de France this year. Cadel might be able to win the Giro, but no way a 34-year-old guy is going to win Giro-Tour double.Thats just not realistic.


Whether Cadel wins the Giro or not, he's going to be very tired. At 34 you don't bounce back. And this Giro has been tough with the lousy weather.


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## kmunny19 (Aug 13, 2008)

not too soon, but I think its possible. (Easy answer, I know.) I like him, and was glad to see him win the ITT for toc, not just do well in it, but I think he'd need to get the type of ITT results/courses suited to his liking that Wiggins did last year to contend.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Tejay will win the 2013 Tour de France.


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## SFTifoso (Aug 17, 2011)

I hope he does. It would be nice to have a proper American winner again.


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

I predict this thread will go bye-bye before too long.


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## ph0enix (Aug 12, 2009)

Creakyknees said:


> Tejay will win the 2013 Tour de France.


I sure hope he does. Didn't think it would happen so soon but he seems ready.


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## looigi (Nov 24, 2010)

Wookiebiker said:


> From that line of thinking ... Cavendish "Could" win the TDF if the right circumstances took place. Will he, NO! But if everything fell into place he could....


OK, so you're probably not big on sportsbooks. So, what's your think on the Cubs winning the Series next year, wait and see?


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

BMC announced before the ITT today that Cadel would be a protected rider at the Tour based on his performance at the Giro. Halfway through the ITT, that decision looks less justified. He's on pace to lose nearly 3 minutes to Nibali today.


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

looigi said:


> OK, so you're probably not big on sportsbooks. So, what's your think on the Cubs winning the Series next year, wait and see?


Not really ... especially if you know how they work. It's not about who's going to win, but how they can make the most money. 

The betting line moves based on money bet, not who is the better team. They open the line based on where they think people will bet evenly on the line and change it based on where the money is put down. If one side gets a lot more money put down on it, they change the line to bring in more money on the other side to balance it out ... so why would anybody look to them for who/what team is better?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

I think Cadel will realize he used too many matches @ the Giro
or maybe he's mailing in the rest of this Giro (hence the poor TT) and saving something for the Tour


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## bballr4567 (Jul 17, 2012)

harlond said:


> BMC announced before the ITT today that Cadel would be a protected rider at the Tour based on his performance at the Giro. Halfway through the ITT, that decision looks less justified. He's on pace to lose nearly 3 minutes to Nibali today.


Yup. 2:36 behind today. 4:02 in the GC. Not very good.


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## r.shoemaker78 (Feb 23, 2012)

I would love to see TJVG win but I just don't think this is the tour for him. Add to that BMC saying Snuggles will be a protected rider and other distractions that naturally follow the tour. There are also to many other great riders that will have full team support.

Maybe in a year or two when Evans is completely out of the picture and the team is 100% dedicated to TJVG, perhaps with some help in the form of a more ITT friendly tour...he COULD win.

Just my thoughts


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

harlond said:


> BMC announced before the ITT today that Cadel would be a protected rider at the Tour based on his performance at the Giro. Halfway through the ITT, that decision looks less justified. He's on pace to lose nearly 3 minutes to Nibali today.


Wow, sandbagging the Giro to save something for the TdF, nice way to take a dump on the Giro/Italian fans . If I were one of the Giro organizers, I'd make some noise over BMC's entry next year.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Wookiebiker said:


> Not really ... especially if you know how they work. It's not about who's going to win, but how they can make the most money.
> 
> The betting line moves based on money bet, not who is the better team. They open the line based on where they think people will bet evenly on the line and change it based on where the money is put down. If one side gets a lot more money put down on it, they change the line to bring in more money on the other side to balance it out ... so why would anybody look to them for who/what team is better?


Excellent point by the Wookie! +1


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