# Three on the podium for Astana?



## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

It's a long way from the finish, but the odds for such an outcome just went way up.
Menchov, Evans and the Schlecks all dropped well down the leader board.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

a little premature but certainly possible given Kloden's and Levi's form. 

I think Levi will pace uphill in the mountains and finish well but not podium. Kloden looks fantastic though

no doubt Lance and Contador will be 1st and 2nd

barring a crash and they both stay healthy

seemed to me that Contador did not put in the same effort today - his pulls were short for whatever reason. Maybe he was having a less than stellar day or was worried about hanging in the group - doubt it though but at the end he was looking back at Lance and the group. He looked like he was suffering but his pulls were brief respectively


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

There is still a long way to go so while it's possible, it may not be probable. 

Someone's gonna work for some other person within the Astana 2,3,4,5 and 7 positions overall so that would mean they would start to slip further down in due time. 

Or not. Haha.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

CARBON110 said:


> no doubt Lance and Contador will be 1st and 2nd


Good to know I can stop watching.

For the record, I don't think Armstrong will podium. If the full team was his, then he would have an outside shot, but he is too old for a podium finish in a grand tour with a split team. Contador should be able to take well over 19 seconds from Armstrong in the mountains or he might as well hang up his bike.

The other Astana riders are going to have to work for the leader, whether it is Armstrong or Contador. I think they'll only have one rider on the podium, but if they have both Contador and Armstrong it will only be because the brutal strength of the Astana team crushes the other teams completely and leaves the other contenders on their own for large amounts of time.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

nate said:


> but he is too old for a podium finish in a grand tour with a split team.


This is false


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*i predict an all-astana podium*

i posted this concept a couple days ago somewhere.
if ever there was a year where it could happen, it would be this yr.
it prolly won't, but hey - if it happens, i look really smart.
you will never have this composition of GC-possible riders, and winning director.

i believe team csc is the main threat to this outcome.


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

nate said:


> Good to know I can stop watching.


Oh, don't stop watching. Look how much fun we've had already! Lance may or may not still have what it takes, but Levi and Kloden are no slouches in the mountains either. Astana can simply play defense with the lead they took today. Somebody is going to have to ride away from them to get a win. Who will it be? Schleck? Sastre? Stay tuned!


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

nate said:


> For the record, I don't think Armstrong will podium. If the full team was his, then he would have an outside shot, but he is too old for a podium finish in a grand tour with a split team. Contador should be able to take well over 19 seconds from Armstrong in the mountains or he might as well hang up his bike.


I'm torn about this. I think I'll reserve judgement until the mountains. I can see a scenario like '07 Tour and Vuelta. Super lieutenants Kloden and Leipheimer set hard tempo for Lance and Alberto. The one (LA vs AC) with the most kick at the top scores the time but both stay close atop the GC. Final TT cements their podium positions.

But if Armstong's legs are too old, then he falls back and Kloden or Leipheimer takes the second podium spot. I'm liking Kloden's chances now since he has less stage race miles in his legs -- thus fresher.

The third podium spot is more difficult to predict. I would have given it to Evans before the TTT. Still, he might snag it as the mountain stages sort out the pretenders. Slow and steady might win the second or third podium spot with a solid ITT. But maybe Andy attacks on an uphill finish and takes enough time to get that last podium

I'd kind of enjoy a scenario where Andy takes off and Contador is the only one with the ability to counter. A. Schleck hangs on for the stage win and takes almost a minute out of Contador and 3-4 minutes out of everyone else. Something like that could have the potential to get him the podium.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

nate said:


> If the full team was his, then he would have an outside shot, but he is too old for a podium finish in a grand tour with a split team. Contador should be able to take well over 19 seconds from Armstrong in the mountains or he might as well hang up his bike.


It's hilarious to see folks make posts like this with so much certainty. 

Two words: We'll see.


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## ChilliConCarnage (Jun 1, 2006)

PJay said:


> ...i believe team csc is the main threat to this outcome.


Since there is no team CSC, i guess it will come true!


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

Contador should do as Beloki did before he crashed out his last Tour which is;

attack attack attack

Vontoux and the ITT will provide second chances to make up any time lost in the mountains

Lance has only to match any other GC rival to take yellow - Contador let Lance waste himself today while gaining on his other rivals - Lance is 19 seconds ahead but Contador will have to attack Lance hard to take yellow - Lance will wait for Contador to make his move 

I don't know why people think lance can't climb? feels like 1999 

nate "for the record" you can stop watching

n00btastic


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

CARBON110 said:


> I don't know why people think lance can't climb? feels like 1999


For me, it's more, he hasn't demonstrated (since his comeback) that he can climb at the same high level that Contador has demonstrated.

By the second or third climbing stage, we will all know.

Len


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## PDex (Mar 23, 2004)

Not bad for a team that has no money.


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## Swish (Jul 31, 2004)

Lance showed exceptional form today, I'm expecting a lot from him the next weeks. Contador wasn't as impressive, but I still see Lance as a more gifted TT-ist than Conta, so i'm not too worried about Contador yet.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Len J said:


> For me, it's more, he hasn't demonstrated (since his comeback) that he can climb at the same high level that Contador has demonstrated.
> 
> By the second or third climbing stage, we will all know.
> 
> Len


As much of a fan as I am, I agree with you.

He climbed well towards the end of the Giro but that wasn't well enough.

He's undoubtedly improved since then so like you said, we'll need to see to really know.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

nevermind


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

Astana occupies 2 – 5 now – soon to be 1 – 4 after Friday. The next realistic threats are (and I am being generous): VV at 1:16, CS at 2:44 and Cadel at 2:59. None of these three can beat the other 4 (decisively) in the mountains or the TT. Tour Over. Exactly who of the 4 is in yellow only matters to those who are fans of each. I realize there are lots of stages left, blah, blah, blah…the only exciting part left will be in infighting drama on Astana – the rest is predictable. Cadel will wheel suck, Sastre will win a mountain stage. Some (relatively unknown) climber will win the polka dot on a long single break away effort, Cav will be in Green, FC will win another TT, etc, etc, etc – tell me where I am wrong.

I see it this way - None of the 4 need attack on Friday. Popo, Zubeldia & Paulinho can set tempo on the climbs. Levi and Kloden can pull back attacks (if needed) or can take over the pace making (LA and AC can sit in). If Kloden and Levi set tempo on the later parts of the climbs who is going to attack? It would be plain stupid to attack each other in the mountains - except for one mountain - Ventoux. Vontoux will be the perfect spot for one of the 4 to attack if they have the balls to win - and of the 4 who is that likely to be?



Either way I will be watching...


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## philoanna (Dec 2, 2007)

I feel that what Astana is doing is incredible. I don't like it, but it is incredible. This is also why I have felt for years that the Tour is not as cool as a race as the Giro and sometimes the Vuelta. Those races are never over after four days.

"Hang out with your wang out."- Hank Moody


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## MB1 (Jan 27, 2004)

philoanna said:


> ... I have felt for years that the Tour is not as cool as a race as the Giro and sometimes the Vuelta. Those races are never over after four days....


Neither is this one.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Definitely possible, even probable.
Evan's team really is terribly weak and I can't see him overcoming this handicap.
Menchov is having a really hard time.
Schlecks don't impress me as much as Cancellara who just might do well enough to come 3rd in the GC - I doubt it though..
Leaving Sastre as the only possible hope of preventing an Astana 1 - 2 - 3


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

rocco said:


> It's hilarious to see folks make posts like this with so much certainty.
> 
> Two words: We'll see.


My post is hilarious but someone saying Armstrong and Contador already wrapped up first and second is not. I made my prediction, just like you've made sure to reply to almost anyone that questions Armstrong's ability to win. I don't see any hilarity, just a good discussion.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

MB1 said:


> Neither is this one.


I don't get why people keep saying like Astana has this won and has sewn up the top 3 or top 4 even.

In case anyone forgot, there are other riders who can attack too. There is the chance that Levi and Klöden pacing meaning they tire out and drop back after doing their job.

I'm an Astana fan and even I don't think it's anywhere near over at all. 

It's just beginning. Almost.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Who on this thread wants to bet on an Astana podium sweep? There are a bunch of you saying it's almost certain to happen.

I'll put something on the line saying it doesn't happen, you call the stakes and the odds.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

CARBON110 said:


> Contador should do as Beloki did before he crashed out his last Tour which is;
> 
> attack attack attack
> 
> ...


If Contador can't put more than 19 seconds into Armstrong in the mountains at this stage in their careers, Contador might as well hang up his bike. If Armstrong wins, I don't think it will be because he puts a lot of time on Contador in the mountains.

I don't go around calling anyone a n00b for making predictions and I'm not even rooting for Contador, but surely you see that Armstrong got within milliseconds of the lead through brains and experience. 

That experience helps a ton, but it won't be the difference in the mountains if Contador rides like a young star that has won grand tours and is about to enter his prime years in terms of physical prowess. If Contador was a year or two older, I wouldn't be waffling in the slightest, but I do think he lacks experience and is not quite to his physical prime for cycling.


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## kef3844 (May 30, 2008)

I'll just say I hope Astana doesn't sweep the podium. My wish is for Contador to win it and LA off the podium.
I do not think Astana has it sewn up already. They are potentially divided, unlike former Postal or Discovery.


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## kokothemonkey (Jul 7, 2004)

safetyguy said:


> Astana occupies 2 – 5 now – soon to be 1 – 4 after Friday. The next realistic threats are (and I am being generous): VV at 1:16, CS at 2:44 and Cadel at 2:59. None of these three can beat the other 4 (decisively) in the mountains or the TT. Tour Over. Exactly who of the 4 is in yellow only matters to those who are fans of each. I realize there are lots of stages left, blah, blah, blah…the only exciting part left will be in infighting drama on Astana – the rest is predictable. Cadel will wheel suck, Sastre will win a mountain stage. Some (relatively unknown) climber will win the polka dot on a long single break away effort, Cav will be in Green, FC will win another TT, etc, etc, etc – tell me where I am wrong.
> 
> I see it this way - None of the 4 need attack on Friday. Popo, Zubeldia & Paulinho can set tempo on the climbs. Levi and Kloden can pull back attacks (if needed) or can take over the pace making (LA and AC can sit in). If Kloden and Levi set tempo on the later parts of the climbs who is going to attack? It would be plain stupid to attack each other in the mountains - except for one mountain - Ventoux. Vontoux will be the perfect spot for one of the 4 to attack if they have the balls to win - and of the 4 who is that likely to be?
> 
> ...


I would say you are spot on.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

nate said:


> If Contador can't put more than 19 seconds into Armstrong in the mountains at this stage in their careers, Contador might as well hang up his bike. If Armstrong wins, I don't think it will be because he puts a lot of time on Contador in the mountains.
> 
> I don't go around calling anyone a n00b for making predictions and I'm not even rooting for Contador, but surely you see that Armstrong got within milliseconds of the lead through brains and experience.
> 
> That experience helps a ton, but it won't be the difference in the mountains if Contador rides like a young star that has won grand tours and is about to enter his prime years in terms of physical prowess. If Contador was a year or two older, I wouldn't be waffling in the slightest, but I do think he lacks experience and is not quite to his physical prime for cycling.


might as well hang up his bike? 

lol dayum that's cold and dismissive

I think it is reasonable to assume Lance has been focusing most of his training on climbing and losing some kilos. His recon pre tour means he paid special attention.

Stage 7 and Vontoux means Contador or Lance will have to put all his money into those two finishes unless he plans on jumping one of the many "town" finishes after a col. of course there is the ITT

since there are only really 2 mtn top finishes Astana will put the heat on to drop everyone and whoever survives will win the tour - unless someone has a bad day during the ITT or on Vontoux or stage 7 for that matter 

Friday will come down to Lance and Contador and maybe Kloden 

certainly there could be a good breakaway on one of those undulating mountainish stages but Lance is good at tracking contenders if he is in the lead . . . and then again he is good at escaping too isn't he

I think it is unreasonable to say he can't climb just because he is 37 after he has demolished everyone in the climbs 

but someone said they haven't seen him climb well this year, which is true 

I don't think the ITT will favor either - they both are in great form for TTs

could be a very close Tour - we will know on Friday


mmmmmm more speculation but it is obvious Lance is in great shape and everyone expects Contador to do well because he has won 3 tours and is young


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

SilasCL said:


> Who on this thread wants to bet on an Astana podium sweep? There are a bunch of you saying it's almost certain to happen.
> 
> I'll put something on the line saying it doesn't happen, you call the stakes and the odds.


I will help cover that action. Does anyone remember all the teams with multiple contendors falling by the wayside to a focused team in US Postal/Discovery? AC and LA are not going to work for each other and so cut their helpers down. Ulrich is a very good DS and I am sure he has plans to play the division in Astana as best he can.

US Postal/Discovery often had multiple riders in the top 10 in the first week or so but these riders fell off as they burned themselves in the mountains and dropped off to save something for tomorrow.You think the riders can cover attacks all day and then go with the top riders that were sitting on? If so, they would be leading their own teams.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

CARBON110 said:


> I think it is unreasonable to say he can't climb just because he is 37 after he has demolished everyone in the climbs


When has he demolished other riders in the climbs in the last 3 years? 2005 is a long time ago and does not count. Basso is proof of that.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

CARBON110 said:


> mmmmmm more speculation but it is obvious Lance is in great shape and everyone expects Contador to do well because he has won 3 tours and is young


Stirring the pot here, but how is it 'obvious Lance is in great shape'?

Where are the results from this year that point to that?


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## velomoto (Oct 6, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> This is false


:thumbsup:


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

SilasCL said:


> Stirring the pot here, but how is it 'obvious Lance is in great shape'?
> 
> Where are the results from this year that point to that?


Nevada off course. Jeez, didn't you know that lapping the field in a random crit is more important than races like tour de suisse and national championships?


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

uzziefly said:


> I don't get why people keep saying like Astana has this won and has sewn up the top 3 or top 4 even.
> 
> In case anyone forgot, there are other riders who can attack too. There is the chance that Levi and Klöden pacing meaning they tire out and drop back after doing their job.
> 
> ...


What other riders can attack the Astana 4? Cadel, VV, Sastre - I really want to know. Note: towards the end of the the Giro (can't remember the exact stage), LA was able to hang with Sastre - I found this to be quite telling when I watched it. He was clearly not on form (given his collar bone) and able to stay with the top climbers for the most part.

No one on Astana need attack on any of the mountain stages except Vontoux- they just need to mark the other "condenders." Why waste any energy when you have the lead - you will definitely need it later!. 

If you are AC you must be feeling pretty good after putting 40 seconds into LA on the first TT. Even if LA hangs with AC on Friday - which I bet he sits right on his wheel, AC has got to be thinking he can still put time on him at the next TT. 

If you are LA you must be encouraged, you have 7x TdF under your belt. If you can hang with AC on Friday and if you can get stronger as the tour progresses (which he has in the past) you must be thinking your chances are pretty good - for an old guy that is.

If you are Levi - you are the consummate pro - and simply doing your job - same for Klodi - however if AC and LA falter (possible) you are up. 

Watch on Friday - it will be a pretty boring stage for the top GC hopes and they will all finish in a bunch - with the likes of a Schleck or Menchov sprinting at the end for brownie points!


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## My Own Private Idaho (Aug 14, 2007)

I'd love to know what's going through the mind of the DS of Astana. This could be tough to keep the team working together. They have 7 of 9 riders in the top 20, and all in theoretical striking distance.


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## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

*Pure Speculation*

... but I see it this way:

Kloden, Popo and Zubeldia will be used to burn matches on climbs and pace Contador and Lance up them because they are unlikely to hang with the big climbers day in-day out like LA (if he's as good as he used to be) and Contador should.
Levi will probably be allowed to ride his own race for the most part because if he's on form, he might be able to contest for the podium. Maybe swap Levi and Kloden's roles.

Worst case for Contador is if he's off form (or forgets to eat) and cracks somewhere in the mountains when some other GC climber attacks.

2nd-worst case scenario for Contador is that Lance is able to mark every GC climber in the race except for Contador, in which case he's unlikely to be able to attack Lance in yellow without going full-scale mutiny. (While Lance can do what he wants as he's 37 and doesn't need to be on Bruyneel's good side, Contador probably wants to ride for him for the forseeable future)

Best case for Contador is that one of the GC-threat climbers attacks and Lance can't follow, in which case Contador can pursue and bury everyone (if he has the legs). That's really the only way I see him taking this, unless he can take >19 seconds from Lance on the ITT, which is possible, I suppose. It's too bad that he's in this position, but he shouldn't have missed the bus yesterday.

For Lance, it all comes down to his ability to follow attacks up the mountains day-in, day-out. The way the climbing stages are a bit spread out a bit might help him in that regard.

Anything's possible, of course, but this seems the most likely outcome.


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

SilasCL said:


> Who on this thread wants to bet on an Astana podium sweep? There are a bunch of you saying it's almost certain to happen.
> 
> I'll put something on the line saying it doesn't happen, you call the stakes and the odds.


OK, I'll wager ten dollars against your ten thousand.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

TmaxR said:


> OK, I'll wager ten dollars against your ten thousand.


You have that little confidence in your bet? Way to make my point, you guys are all talk.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

nate said:


> My post is hilarious but someone saying Armstrong and Contador already wrapped up first and second is not. I made my prediction, just like you've made sure to reply to almost anyone that questions Armstrong's ability to win. I don't see any hilarity, just a good discussion.



Nonsense, there's vast difference between predicting that LA and AC would be first and second at the end of todays TTT when they were about 5k from the finish and being wrong by .32... excuse me... .22 seconds versus predicting what will happen in the mountains this weekend or in the coming weeks. Not even close.


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## jhamlin38 (Oct 29, 2005)

In my opinion, the riders that can attack Lance and put time in him are Sastre, Schleck, Sanchez maybe Kreuzinger. I don't think Menchov, Evans or VdV can. 
I think the only guy that can put time into Contador is Schleck and maybe, Sastre or Sanchez on a strong day, and AC on a crappy day. 
I think Bruyneel will keep armstrong and Contador 1 and 2, and let them tt it out for a win. Although Contador will probably out kick lance on a mountaintop by 3-5 seconds to clear any of this "confusion" up. He will to show the world, cause he's a proud guy.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

den bakker said:


> Nevada off course. Jeez, didn't you know that lapping the field in a random crit is more important than races like tour de suisse and national championships?


Considering he was 10th in the longer than typical, up and down and technical prologue without any of the best time checks to meter off of and the quantity and quality of the work he did in the TTT compared to AC or anyone else for that matter I think your Nevada City quip is pretty weak. Performances over the last four days of the Tour are a better gauge of current form than what these guys did in crits, nationals or one week tours that happened days and weeks ago. 

It also seems most aren't accounting for the fact that this Tour as far as Tours typically go isn't so much tilted toward the climbers with only two mountain top finishes... even if one is Ventoux. The next TT course is also definitely more favorable to LA than AC.

I'm not saying AC or even someone else won't ultimately win... we'll see. Only the road knows.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

den bakker said:


> Nevada off course. Jeez, didn't you know that lapping the field in a random crit is more important than races like tour de suisse and national championships?



he came in 10th on stage 1 - he not only survived today but put more work in than anyone else on the team that dropped some great riders plus beat the time of every other team - he has a history of progressing and coming into better and better form during the Tour - I thought you guys watched cycling? 

by the way the Nevada Crit has been around for a long time and though it may not be as hard as some races in America much less Europe, lapping a field from the 2nd lap is a good demonstration you're in excellent fitness - say nothing of a 12th place in the Giro - a race he was using for training and a $2mill pay day 

sooooooooo try to put your own prejudices aside and look at the riders performances

Contadaor won the Spanish TT title against really no one but his stage 1 ride was awesome and he did little work comparatively on stage 4 but looked like he was doing just fine especially that last effort - he has won the Giro, the Tour, and the Vuelta which means he knows how to handle stage races. 

He has remained calm and everyone has faith in him. He has had few spectacular performances and his stage race performances haven't exactly shattered the field but everyone knows he is a great rider - Contador has many many more triumphs ahead of him potentially this Tour and some stages to boot

2008 Vuelta ( Barely beat Levi )

Rider Team Time
1 Flag of Spain Alberto Contador (ESP) Contador was awarded the final golden jersey as general classification winner Astana 80h 40' 08"
2 Flag of the United States Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana + 46"
3 Flag of Spain Carlos Sastre (ESP) Team CSC Saxo Bank + 4' 12"
4 Flag of Spain Ezequiel Mosquera (ESP) Xacobeo-Galicia + 5' 19"
5 Flag of Spain Alejandro Valverde (ESP) Caisse d'Epargne + 6' 00"

2008 Giro ( expect him to win here )

Cyclist Team Time
1 Flag of Spain Alberto Contador (ESP) Astana 89h 56' 49"
2 Flag of Italy Riccardo Riccò (ITA) Saunier Duval-Scott + 1' 57"
3 Flag of Italy Marzio Bruseghin (ITA) Lampre + 2' 54"
4 Flag of Italy Franco Pellizotti (ITA) Liquigas + 2' 56"
5 Flag of Russia Denis Menchov (RUS) Rabobank + 3' 37"

2007 Tour De France ( beat Evans by 23 seconds and Levi by 31 ) 

k Rider Team Time
1 Flag of Spain Alberto Contador (ESP) Discovery Channel 91h 00' 26"
2 Flag of Australia Cadel Evans (AUS) Predictor-Lotto + 23"
3 Flag of the United States Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel + 31"
4 Flag of Spain Carlos Sastre (ESP) Team CSC + 7' 08"
5 Flag of Spain Haimar Zubeldia (ESP) Euskaltel-Euskadi + 8' 17"

Lance is a Tour specialist and beat the best riders in the world by 5 + minutes - again and again. He is an excellent rider, one of the best in the world at climbing and simply because it has been 4 years won't change that given his preparation, attention to training, and experience. 37 isn't exactly over the hill fellas even if you're racing against guys 13 years younger 

by the way the last Tour LA won, 4 years ago, he was faster than ever - my guess is next year he will be stronger than he is now - and older 

=)

lets watch and enjoy what happens - all we can do is guess - but conjecture is such fun! of course I expect nothing more than dismissive, flippant, sarcasm from both of you Silas and den because, well, that is who you are here on RBR and I'm sure you expect me to disagree with equal conviction and lack of style - sure I want Lance to win, not because I'm just a fan boy but because it will piss off all the right people and give a great deal of inspiration to thousands as his story will continue in bike racing and cancer. That doesn't mean he deserves to win, he only deserves to win if he beats the best but the guy is great to watch on a bike. If Contador wins I will be equally happy


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

jptaylorsg said:


> (While Lance can do what he wants as he's 37 and doesn't need to be on Bruyneel's good side, Contador probably wants to ride for him for the forseeable future)


That's a huge stretch that I'm not buying at all.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

So 10th in the TT and 12th in the Giro (16 minutes down) means he's in great shape? Seems hyperbolic to me.

I would say Levi is in much better shape, he did better in the Giro and opening TT.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

uzziefly said:


> I don't get why people keep saying like Astana has this won and has sewn up the top 3 or top 4 even.
> 
> In case anyone forgot, there are other riders who can attack too. There is the chance that Levi and Klöden pacing meaning they tire out and drop back after doing their job.
> 
> ...



It's not just the physical labor of time trial and mountain stages... they have to survive all of the stages in one piece and in good health. There are 0 forgone conclusions to be made about the final GC until they're 1K (or whatever the rule is now) from the finish line in Paris or at least until the they reach the top of Ventoux.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

SilasCL said:


> So 10th in the TT and 12th in the Giro (16 minutes down) means he's in great shape? Seems hyperbolic to me.
> 
> I would say Levi is in much better shape, he did better in the Giro and opening TT.


you can say anything you like - it's a forum

there doesn't need to be condemnation or malice

In any case yeah I'd say he has performed well


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

SilasCL said:


> Who on this thread wants to bet on an Astana podium sweep? There are a bunch of you saying it's almost certain to happen.
> 
> I'll put something on the line saying it doesn't happen, you call the stakes and the odds.


if Lance had sat in like Contador did today you would say he isn't up to the task or he looks weak or that was unfair - lets face it Silas your preconceptions really influence your opinions - on top of it your tone in your posts is really negative and you seem exceptionally conceited


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

SilasCL said:


> So 10th in the TT and 12th in the Giro (16 minutes down) means he's in great shape? Seems hyperbolic to me.
> 
> I would say Levi is in much better shape, he did better in the Giro and opening TT.



There's no arguing whether he is in great shape... the question is whether he is in Tour winning phenomenal shape. Finishing in 10th in the 1st TT with no top quality time checks to meter off of and the quality and quantity of work he did today in the TTT are good signs. He also raced smarter yesterday and nobody wins the Tour with super legs alone. If you're looking for the latest "what have you done for me lately" signs of who's best prepared it's hard to quibble over who's in the top 10 places on GC after the last 4 days.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

CARBON110 said:


> you can say anything you like - it's a forum
> 
> there doesn't need to be condemnation or malice


Sure, I just wish the discussion was a bit more grounded in reality and evidence. I think it makes for a more interesting discussion if people bring some facts, and not just stuff like, Lance is in great shape, he's the same weight as in 2005 (straight from LA's twitter) or Lance knows how to mentally defeat the competition. It's either lame or cliche.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

CARBON110 said:


> if Lance had sat in like Contador did today you would say he isn't up to the task or he looks weak or that was unfair - lets face it Silas your preconceptions really influence your opinions - on top of it your tone in your posts is really negative and you seem exceptionally conceited


Thanks for going personal, guess what, I don't give a crap what you think about me, I just wish there was a higher quality discourse in this forum.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

rocco said:


> There's no arguing whether he is in great shape... the question is whether he is in Tour winning phenomenal shape. Finishing in 10th in the 1st TT with no top quality time checks to meter off of and the quality and quantity of work he did today in the TTT are good signs. He also raced smarter yesterday and nobody wins the Tour with super legs alone. If you're looking for the latest "what have you done for me lately" signs of who's best prepared it's hard to quibble over who's in the top 10 places on GC after the last 4 days.


I didn't mean to split hairs. If you want to argue about what great shape means, go for it.

I took it to mean that he was in shape to win the tour, or podium. I was asking for some evidence to back that up. He's having a great first week, no one would disagree. But the top 10 GC has a few guys I wouldn't expect to be in the top 100 when they get to Paris.


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

Must be purely by chance that EVERY SINGLE GC contender is behind LA at this point in the race.


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## juswannaride (May 13, 2009)

Im making no predictions on who will do what, Im enjoying the racing and amazed that Lance is still riding great. Team Astana does look very strong - the ttt showed that today and they all rode well together. It also awesome to see so many great riders riding in the tour...wish I was there to see it up close.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

SilasCL said:


> Thanks for going personal, guess what, I don't give a crap what you think about me, I just wish there was a higher quality discourse in this forum.


read your posts - that is how you sound not who you are - very different things. 

I think you sound like a smart guy, but like myself more than I'd like to admit - could use a little refinement that's all - doesn't mean it is true and my apologies if it upset you but you don't always need to be excessive in expressing your disdain - 

a little more friendly or inviting might elevate the discussion to where you want it to be

again, I could have stated that better so my apologies for not being more tactful - now I feel like I'm in an encounter group lol


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

CARBON110 said:


> read your posts - that is how you sound not who you are - very different things.
> 
> I think you sound like a smart guy, but like myself more than I'd like to admit - could use a little refinement that's all - doesn't mean it is true and my apologies if it upset you but you don't always need to be excessive in expressing your disdain -
> 
> ...


I accept this, I'll try to lighten up.


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## identifiler (Dec 24, 2005)

I think Lance has gone through a transformation from staying away, just like when he was sick. I think you will see a guy who will have more of a classic profile, he will climb put he will not be explosive. It will be like a grand diesel rather than like a climbing hop, the likes of valv, conti, sastre even cadel will do. 

It will have a lot to do with experience and hill grade. As of today, a lot of folks lost any hope for GC. This may even turn into an Astana only tour... There will need to be some serious collaboration of attacks out there to chew away at that train...


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## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

rocco said:


> That's a huge stretch that I'm not buying at all.


Which part? I'm just saying that playing politics is probably more beneficial for Contador than Lance considering he has a longer career in front of him. Not much of a stretch.


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## philoanna (Dec 2, 2007)

I was not really talking about the dominance of Astana as much as I was talking about how I truly do not feel that the tour is the hardest of the grand tours. 
With that said, with Astana's roster, the only real race will probably be in that team. If it wasn't for the TTT, it might still be a race. Now Lance or Dirty Bertie will get a lead in the early mountain stages and Astana will only have to protect and sit in till Paris. 
The other contenders lost too much time.
That's not Lance'es or Dirty Berties's fault that Astana brought such talent however.
Either way, the tour is lame and the Giro is cooler.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

jptaylorsg said:


> Which part? I'm just saying that playing politics is probably more beneficial for Contador than Lance considering he has a longer career in front of him. Not much of a stretch.



It's extremely unlikely that LA and JB are going to operate from different play books and there's very, very little chance that AC is going to stick with whatever team JB is the DS of next year.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

2005 TdF Standings after Stage 4. I think most of those DSC riders dropped quite a bit being burned up for their GC contendor.

Pos. N° Name Surname Team Nat. Gaps
1 001 ARMSTRONG Lance DSC USA 
2 004 HINCAPIE George DSC USA 00' 55"
3 028 VOIGT Jens CSC GER 01' 04"
4 023 JULICH Bobby CSC USA 01' 07"
5 008 RUBIERA José Luis DSC ESP 01' 14"
6 007 POPOVYCH Yaroslav DSC UKR 01' 16"
7 019 VINOKOUROV Alexandre TMO KAZ 01' 21"
8 005 NOVAL GONZALEZ Benjamin DSC ESP 01' 26"
9 029 ZABRISKIE David CSC USA 01' 26"
10 021 BASSO Ivan CSC ITA 01' 26"
11 022 ARVESEN Kurt-Asle CSC NOR 01' 32"
12 006 PADRNOS Pavel DSC CZE 01' 32"
13 009 SAVOLDELLI Paolo DSC ITA 01' 33"
14 011 ULLRICH Jan TMO GER 01' 36"
15 026 SASTRE Carlos CSC ESP 01' 36"
16 002 AZEVEDO José DSC POR 01' 37"


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

2004

General classification after stage 4

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 14.54.53
2 George Hincapie (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.10
3 Floyd Landis (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.16
4 Jose Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.22
5 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.24
6 José Enrique Gutierrez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.27
7 Viatcheslav Ekimov (Rus) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.30
8 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.36
9 Santos Gonzalez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.37
10 Bert Grabsch (Ger) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.41
11 Jens Voigt (Ger) Team CSC 0.43
12 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.44
13 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.47
14 Erik Zabel (Ger) T-Mobile Team 
15 Mikel Pradera Rodriguez (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 0.55
16 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 
17 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.57
18 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 1.00
19 Francisco Mancebo Pérez (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 1.01
20 Kurt-Asle Arvesen (Nor) Team CSC 1.04
21 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 1.08


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

They swept the final podium and top 5 in 2003!!!!

General classification after stage 4

1 Victor Hugo Pena (Col) US Postal-Berry Floor 13.44.44
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal-Berry Floor 0.01
3 Vjatceslav Ekimov (Rus) US Postal-Berry Floor 0.05
4 George Hincapie (USA) US Postal-Berry Floor 
5 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 0.23
6 Roberto Heras (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 0.27
7 Pavel Padrnos (Cze) US Postal-Berry Floor 
8 Floyd Landis (USA) US Postal-Berry Floor 0.28
9 Joseba Beloki (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 0.33
10 Jorg Jaksche (Ger) ONCE-Eroski 0.38
11 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 0.39
12 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Team Bianchi 
13 Isidro Nozal (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 0.44
14 Angel Vicioso (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 0.51
15 Tobias Steinhauser (Ger) Team Bianchi  
16 Mikel Pradera (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 0.58
17 Angel Casero (Spa) Team Bianchi 
18 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 1.01
19 Marcos Serrano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 1.04
20 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) iBanesto.com 1.11
21 Félix Garcia Casas (Spa) Team Bianchi 1.15
22 Denis Menchov (Rus) iBanesto.com 1.19
23 Evgeni Petrov (Rus) iBanesto.com 1.21
24 Pablo Lastras (Spa) iBanesto.com 1.24
25 Juan Antonio Flecha (Spa) iBanesto.com 1.25


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

2002. Nice line up for Once...

General classification after stage 4

1 Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 14.51.50
2 Joseba Beloki (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 0.04
3 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service 0.07
4 Jörg Jaksche (Ger) ONCE-Eroski 0.12
5 Abraham Olano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 0.22
6 Roberto Heras Hernandez (Spa) US Postal Service 0.25
7 Isidro Nozal (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 0.27
8 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 0.28
9 George Hincapie (USA) US Postal Service
10 Marcos A.Serrano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski 0.30
11 Floyd Landis (USA) US Postal Service 0.32
12 Alvaro Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
13 José Luis Rubiera Vigil (Spa) US Postal Service 0.35
14 Viatcheslav Ekimov (Rus) US Postal Service 0.35
15 Laurent Jalabert (Fra) CSC-Tiscali 0.37
16 Tyler Hamilton (USA) CSC-Tiscali 0.53
17 Andrea Peron (Ita) CSC-Tiscali
18 Pavel Padrnos (Cze) US Postal Service 0.55
19 Carlos Sastre (Spa) CSC-Tiscali 1.00
20 Benoit Joachim (Lux) US Postal Service 1.09
21 Nicki Sørensen (Den) CSC-Tiscali
22 Serguei Gontchar (Ukr) Fassa Bortolo 1.36
23 David Millar (GBr) Cofidis 1.40


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

safetyguy said:


> What other riders can attack the Astana 4? Cadel, VV, Sastre - I really want to know.
> 
> Watch on Friday - it will be a pretty boring stage for the top GC hopes and they will all finish in a bunch - with the likes of a Schleck or Menchov sprinting at the end for brownie points!


Everyone *can* attack: Schlecks, Sastre, Kreuziger, Kirchen, Menchov, Rogers, Karpets, Pellizotti, Evens, Gesink, etc. If Astana decides to let them go, one by one, simply because they are 2+ min behind, it could turn risky. Lack of clear non-Astana GC favorites could make it difficult to decide who to follow.

Also, if Astana decides to "protect" all 4 riders at the top of GC, they won't have any domestiques left.

Either way, this is long way from over. Still two and a half weeks to go.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

CARBON110 said:


> might as well hang up his bike?
> 
> lol dayum that's cold and dismissive
> 
> ...


I don't think it's dismissive. I just think, if Contador wants to live up to the promise and wins he has shown already, he _has_ to beat Armstrong. Armstrong knows how to train for this race and has the experience, but I feel like it is still Contador's race to lose. Armstrong will take advantage of every mistake if he is physically able, which means Contador needs to 1) not make any more mistakes 2) make sure it comes down to physical ability. If Contador doesn't do that against all the GC contenders, he obviously doesn't deserve to win.

I also never said Armstrong can't climb. Armstrong was one of the best Tour de France riders ever, some would argue _the_ best, and I think it is an insult to Armstrong the seven-time Tour de France winner to think Armstrong now is just as fit and strong. If he does win, more power to him, but I think it will reflect on the rest of the field's lack of ability just as much as it will on Armstrong's strengths.

One thing is for sure. It is shaping up to be a good Tour despite Astana's probable domination of the other teams.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

I totally agree 

good simplicity and clarity in your post


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

Recovery gets harder with age. One of the reasons why no one has won the Tour at 37. We have a ways to go.

http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20070221.142049/index.html


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## twitch1 (Feb 3, 2009)

The big man from Austin, TX will podium... No doubt about it. There is no doubt about it that the man can climb, yall dont worry about him in the mountains. As far as recovery getting harder with age, Lance is a machine... What recovery needed. He is still the same Lance as always. I mean come on he helped his team pull back 40 seconds. Thats not a small amount of time to do in that distance. Astana will put Lance on top... If not in the yellow at least 2nd. I'm going with the yellow. Who can stop talking about Lance... He's the greatest. His standings throughout the year dont mean anything, for all we know he was using everything as practice and not pushing it and giving it is all. That may have been a team plan. A plan to make the rest of the cycling world think that he isnt the same as he has always been. The man is a cancer survivor, and knowing a couple of cancer survivors, they are some tough SOB's.


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## twitch1 (Feb 3, 2009)

Let me correct myself a little... He gained 39 seconds if i am not mistaken and is 1 second behind the yellow jersey. I havent checked the final standings tonite due to being at work so my time may be a tiny bit off, but from what i heard its only 1 second behind. 40 freakin seconds... I dont see anyone else doing that, do you. Contadour is a great cyclist but this is The Lance Armstrong, The legend... We will be talking about him for as long as their is cycling.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

oops...


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## lalahsghost (Aug 27, 2007)

Swish said:


> Lance showed exceptional form today, I'm expecting a lot from him the next weeks. Contador wasn't as impressive, but I still see Lance as a more gifted TT-ist than Conta, so i'm not too worried about Contador yet.


Do you think he was intentionally holding back and reserving energy for recovery/wednesday?


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

Brother Maximus, We get your point that the TTT can sweep the better part of a team to the top of the leader board. I think a distinction this year is how many of the anointed GC contenders fell well down the board today and the quality and depth of the Astana team. This is a very strong team! Four former podium finishers, two of which have won the whole ball of wax a combined 8 times! Oh, and I believe 3 of the four have been team leaders ( check that, FIVE have been team leaders).
The odds against a 1,2,3 finish are high, but I think the possibility has never been greater.


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

rileymeister said:


> How about we stop talking about Lance F$%#@&% Armstrong. What about all of the other great riders in the tour? I am so fed up with hearing about Astana this or Astana that and about Lance that I could just about puke. I hope Astana just implodes on itself, it will after the tour for sure when Vino returns to the team, bye bye Bruyneel.


Your welcome to start another thread about any @#$%^&ing rider or team you want.
No one is forcing you to hang here.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

So Astana is going to protect 3 riders for 2.5 weeks. That does not leave a lot of riders doing work controlling stages and break aways in the mountains and flats.

http://www.europeloton.com/2009/03/can-astana-sweep-1-2-3-at-2009-tour-de.html


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

Maximus_XXIV said:


> So Astana is going to protect 3 riders for 2.5 weeks. That does not leave a lot of riders doing work controlling stages and break aways in the mountains and flats.
> 
> http://www.europeloton.com/2009/03/can-astana-sweep-1-2-3-at-2009-tour-de.html


They do not necessarily have to protect three to place three. No one is saying it's a done deal, just that if it is ever going to happen, this is the team that might do it.
Thanks for the link. This one is of interest too: http://www.europeloton.com/2009/07/wrecking-machine-astana-time-trial.html


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## philippec (Jun 16, 2002)

twitch1 said:


> The big man from Austin, TX will podium... No doubt about it.


I highly doubt he will podium.... no doubt about that!!


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## juswannaride (May 13, 2009)

I see Lance wearing yellow atleast once during the tour, as for the rest who knows, enjoy the race guys...with so many great riders this year its anybodies game.


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## KMan (Feb 3, 2004)

*too old...too hard??*

Just be carefully with your predictions. Lance has been feeding the press that this is much harder than he expected......and we know from past experience that Lance likes to use the media to his advantage. I think in all reality he has something in the tank that may catch a few off guard. My thought is not enough to beat Contador (unless Contador cracks on a stage), but enough that he could pull 2nd due to the present time gaps.

Michael




nate said:


> Good to know I can stop watching.
> 
> For the record, I don't think Armstrong will podium. If the full team was his, then he would have an outside shot, but he is too old for a podium finish in a grand tour with a split team. Contador should be able to take well over 19 seconds from Armstrong in the mountains or he might as well hang up his bike.
> 
> The other Astana riders are going to have to work for the leader, whether it is Armstrong or Contador. I think they'll only have one rider on the podium, but if they have both Contador and Armstrong it will only be because the brutal strength of the Astana team crushes the other teams completely and leaves the other contenders on their own for large amounts of time.


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## twitch1 (Feb 3, 2009)

true true... there are many great riders and this years race promises to a very good show. But i am still holding true to my statement of lance either making the top 2 or winning *AGAIN*... I believe astana will protect their 3 top riders the whole time but will assist each other to keep the top 3 near the yellow jersey in case something happens to one of the top 3 the other 2 could wouldnt be far off the lead. I think they are going to take if day by day to see which one needs the most help to stay close to the yellow. Just my opinion.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

twitch1 said:


> true true... there are many great riders and this years race promises to a very good show. But i am still holding true to my statement of lance either making the top 2 or winning *AGAIN*... I believe astana will protect their 3 top riders the whole time but will assist each other to keep the top 3 near the yellow jersey in case something happens to one of the top 3 the other 2 could wouldnt be far off the lead. I think they are going to take if day by day to see which one needs the most help to stay close to the yellow. Just my opinion.


That sounds nice but is a 180 from the JB and LA strategy since 1999. It is also a strategy that failed many teams against LA since 2000.


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

Maximus_XXIV said:


> That sounds nice but is a 180 from the JB and LA strategy since 1999. It is also a strategy that failed many teams against LA since 2000.


Well first not many teams - really only one team - and it failed because one rider attacked the designated team leader. That team BTW is nothing like the Astana team with 8x TdF wins on it. The other team had 1x TdF win. 

My point FWIW - is that Astana does not need to attack AT all. They just need to sit on the other contenders in the mountains - none of the other contenders are really explosive attackers and it does not appear - that any of the contenders can put on more than a minute or two on the fantastic Astana 4. Yes I would expect a few of the 4 to have at least one bad day in the mountains, I would expect one or two of them to get dropped. On the other hand I would expect a few of them to have a really good day or two. So based on their current standings, previous performances, experience and their respective form this year - who is this likely to be?

I still stick to my Friday prediction - except for a breakaway - all the contenders will be closely marking each other and will finish mostly together - with no big time gaps amongst them. 

Actually tomorrows finish might be a lot more exciting with a steep and sustained (1.5k) climb.... Some of us might even be surprised how well FC can climb...


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

I agree FC will be looking to keep his lead tomorrow. He will ride his heart out.


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