# So, who can beat Contador?



## eyebob (Feb 3, 2004)

That last stage of P-N was impressive. Although he isolated himself on that last climb by stomping away, he showed that even when isolated, no one was going to lose him off their wheel. 

That guy looks unbeatable come July, unless of course, his team completely fails him.  

Yikes.

bt


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## Nimitz (Jul 8, 2004)

some horrible tactics for sure on that last stage...I haven't watched the rest of the race but man what a bad decision to do all that work, you definitely saw some weakness in him even though he still pulled it off.

Chad


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## Bikeauger (Aug 22, 2009)

Based on betting odds (TdF):

Alberto Contador 1.72	
Andy Schleck 6.00
Lance Armstrong 6.50
Alejandro Valverde 17.00
Cadel Evans 23.00
Bradley Wiggins 23.00
Ivan Basso 26.00
Denis Menchov 26.00


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

lance armstrong


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## Retro Grouch (Apr 30, 2002)

I tip my hat to Andy Schleck. 

However, he needs to impove his ITT, not wait on brother Frank to catch up and hope that Alberto makes a tactical mistake. 

I can see the brothers forming an unholy alliance with Armstrong if Lance figures he can't podium.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

If Contador makes a similar mistake in a grand tour with strong, peaking contenders, he will be in big trouble.


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## Gnarly 928 (Nov 19, 2005)

*He sure looks pretty strong right now, but...*

He doesn't look 'un-beatable'. If you watch his winning climbs it seems like he is on the verge of blowing on most of them. He has a great burst to gap the other climbers but then they usually seem to be catching him back...I haven't seen one where he rides away and continues to build the gap...like some riders do.

He also may be a bit macho in his tactics. It seems often he does some not so smart moves. So far, he's managed to prevail despite his "tactics" but that kinda racing is more risky than it needs be and he'll get caught out sooner or later.

I think Armstrong might be the guy to beat him in the Tour, though he'll have to use all his smarts and experience and his strong team and also have some good luck..


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## JoelS (Aug 25, 2008)

Contador will be the one to beat him. If he makes the tactical errors he made in P-N, there's a strong possibility he won't win. He's a heck of a strong rider, his problem is between his ears.


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## CabDoctor (Jun 11, 2005)

Yeah the thing with Contadoper is he will let himself get isolated. He always does. He is the strongest, way stronger than Armstrong. But with that being said, Armstrong is flanked by the other two smartest guys currently riding bikes, Horner and Levi. So those 3 x 21days x Crazy Mind games and Propaganda = A force to be reckoned with.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Interesting to watch his climbing technique over that of the other riders in the P-N.

I'll give him this...he's way more efficient and balanced. Meaning two things: 

1/) his upper body/core strength has obviously not been neglected, giving him added muscles to call on.

And, 2.) he knows how to position himself for greatest efficienecy in driving the bike forward on a climb. 

The two combined = a great advantage.

It was almost humorous to watch the other riders waggle their bikes all over that one climb, in comparison to Cont...they're just not as balanced in strength and technique so...they fatigue faster.

Just mah .02 observation.


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

he has obviously learned a lot from climbing with lance armstrong


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

I'm wondering a few things. Contador is using every races as training until the Tour. You don't get as much out of riding behind others waiting. Maybe he attacked because he wanted higher intensity training? Sure he's happy to have won Paris-Nice but, it's Paris-Nice, not the Tour... and by the last stage, I think he was pretty aware that no one would drop him so, might as well play.

I don't know, at first I thought the medias might be right by saying Contador's weakness was his team but so far this year, Astana (not only Contador) have been racing very well, much better than Radio Shack so far.

Lance? He's a smart racer, has the best tactician as a director and yes has some good workhorses but, in order to use all these things and win a Tour, you also need to be fast, strong and there are a handful of guys stronger than him now.

It's only March so it's hard to know how all the favorites will be in July but I still don't see how anyone can beat Contador. Definitly not Lance.

Andy Schleck will be good but, not as good as Alberto on climbs and TT. He does have a good team that work very well together and are racing smartly though.

Cadel? He's going to be better than last year and he seemed to have found some welcomed aggressiveness but my guess is, even with better support, he will suffer when Contador and Schleck turn the screws and will be looking at a top 5, last podium spot at best.

Liquigas have a lot of firepower but with 3-4 team leaders, they are probably not doing themselves a favor. Can you imagine if Basso, Pellizotti, Nibali and Kreuziger would work together? Not each for his own chances? Maybe then they could get a chance.

Am I forgeting someone? Menchov... He's like a Cadel but emotionaly stronger. Gesink is good too, not on Contador's level either.

So I guess I think unless something bad like a crash or some sickness hits him, Contador should win the Tour.


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## Dajianshan (Jul 15, 2007)

I think Alberto Contador and beat Alberto Contador.

I think his strength could be his weakness. I think the mind games Armstrong played last year could give AC an inferiority complex. It could push him to prove to the world that he deserves respect... or it could push him into making stupid tactical errors and costly mistakes as he feels he has something to prove against LA. There is no doubt about it, Armstrong succeeded in getting into Contador's head and casts a long heavy shadow over AC that he can't easily outrun.


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

Baring injury or illness, no one will beat him at this years grand tours. He is the new guard.
________
Herbal vaporizers


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## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

Not to be a lil' plain here: But wasn't AC's climb at Stage 4 (Paris-Nice) supposedly near freezing? I did miss Stage 7 and know he wasn't so dominant, yet for a guy who probably wasn't in his top form, I wouldn't downplay anything about him just yet - even tactically. Odds are, he's learning on top of that already and it's some good, hard experience.

I do think inevitably, AC will have to bring a pair of mini sub-machine guns at the TDF as opposed to that rinky-dink pistol.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Dan Gerous said:


> I'm wondering a few things. Contador is using every races as training until the Tour. You don't get as much out of riding behind others waiting. Maybe he attacked because he wanted higher intensity training? Sure he's happy to have won Paris-Nice but, it's Paris-Nice, not the Tour... and by the last stage, I think he was pretty aware that no one would drop him so, might as well play.
> 
> I don't know, at first I thought the medias might be right by saying Contador's weakness was his team but so far this year, Astana (not only Contador) have been racing very well, much better than Radio Shack so far.
> 
> ...



I can only do so much speculating or I'll lose my interest.

In the end, it all boils down to a [email protected] shoot, no matter how well prepared one is. That's where the real interesting things happen.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*my guess is*

they will try to beat Contador on the stones like they did Mayo


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

I have a feeling Contador will get taken out on the cobbles during the Tour...


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## frontierwolf (Jun 21, 2008)

I think the whole internal team strife thing at Astana last year was just part of the Bruyneel/Armstrong master plan to break down Contador's mental game. Johan knew that 2010 would be the year that Lance could win again and when July rolls around the seeds of Alberto's defeat will have been germinating for well over a year.


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## Gnarly 928 (Nov 19, 2005)

Contador is certainly a consumate climber. He makes it look...I was going to say Easy..but I think 'simple' would describe his technique better..He is really calm and centered on the bike going uphill. Unlike many good climbers who sometimes remind be of Rodeo cowboys bulldogging a steer, AC seems to be at ease on his bike, like he's not even thinking of getting it up the hill...

If he has a weakness, I think it may show in his TT...He seems way more suited to the mountains than a real 'classic' horsepower TT...Though I admit I've no knowledge of his TT results and history other than last year's tour on TV and that he won Spain's Nats. 

If someone is gonna get time on him, I'm guessing it will come in a real difficult flatish longer TT or if he really blows a mountain stage by showing off. He seems to be the hot rider...


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

If they ever went back to awarding sprint bonuses, I'd say Valverde has the best chance at beating Conti. Else, nobody can match the acceleration that Conti has and none of the "real" favorites can beat him in the TT either so there's no way anyone can gain time on him aside from a crash.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

Gnarly 928 said:


> If he has a weakness, I think it may show in his TT...He seems way more suited to the mountains than a real 'classic' horsepower TT...


He's not as good as Cancellara.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

In this year's TdF, only himself- or Vino. Don't underestimate Vino's love affair with Vino and the control he has over that team.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Coolhand said:


> In this year's TdF, only himself- or Vino. Don't underestimate Vino's love affair with Vino and the control he has over that team.


Is Vino going to be racing the TDF? I thought he wasn't.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

Gnarly 928 said:


> Contador is certainly a consumate climber. He makes it look...I was going to say Easy..but I think 'simple' would describe his technique better..He is really calm and centered on the bike going uphill. Unlike many good climbers who sometimes remind be of Rodeo cowboys bulldogging a steer, AC seems to be at ease on his bike, like he's not even thinking of getting it up the hill...
> 
> If he has a weakness, I think it may show in his TT...He seems way more suited to the mountains than a real 'classic' horsepower TT...Though I admit I've no knowledge of his TT results and history other than last year's tour on TV and that he won Spain's Nats.
> 
> If someone is gonna get time on him, I'm guessing it will come in a real difficult flatish longer TT or if he really blows a mountain stage by showing off. He seems to be the hot rider...


His time trial has always been good and it has gotten better in the last few years. Even time trial specialists have had trouble putting much time into him in lately, and GC contenders have generally done worse. Wikipedia lists eight ITT wins for him under "Major Achievements", and that doesn't include his U23 Spanish TT championship. I'm not sure if there are other less notable ITT he has won.

I agree with others that it will take mental mistakes, accident, and/or injury for him to get beaten in a race he really wants to win. I think mental mistakes are less of a possibility than most people seem to think, though. If a mental error causes him to lose a big race at this point in his career, he will deserve it. He has made enough mistakes to have learned from them at this point.


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## Lumbergh (Aug 19, 2005)

The only rider out there who can beat AC is AC...by the time AC's done riding, Lance will be spoken of about as often as Miguel Indurain...


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

Coolhand said:


> In this year's TdF, only himself- or Vino. Don't underestimate Vino's love affair with Vino and the control he has over that team.


Barring dehydration, injury or any other extreme circumstances, I agree with your statement. Only if the conspiracy comes from within the team can AC be dethroned.

Concerning Radio-Shack, the only prediction I'll make with a very high degree of certainty is that they'll win the Tour of California.


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

Agreed, Armstrong's time has come and gone, the torch has been passed on to Contador.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

Didn't they remove the TTT from the TdF? I thought I heard this somewhere, but my 2nd cup of coffee hasn't kicked in yet. If there were a TTT, I'd say Lance has a shot, but not much more than that. 

From an individual rider perspective, I don't think AC really has any rivals. Last year Astana obviously had LA and AC, but the domestiques of Astana and Bruyneel's tactics gave them that extra edge. With Radio Shack taking most of Astana's backbone support, it's hard to say what will play out next year. 

I have no real predictions, but it could be an interesting year.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

thechriswebb said:


> Is Vino going to be racing the TDF? I thought he wasn't.


I will believe it when the final roster is set.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

A big question will be how can Astana manage defending the yellow jersey through more than a week this year, and through multiple mountain stages?


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

*what decently executed thread!*

This is probably one of the best threads I have read on Lance vs Contador vs the world.

Maybe because July is so far off.

I tend to agree with atp...I think the other teams will try their luck on the cobbles.
If not, I believe Liquigas may have a chance in the mountains but not as much in the TT's.

Schleck, maybe, but again, there is the TT.

Menchov can't stick with it in the mountains, but has the TT skills.

Cadel, unh-uh, I just don't see it.

Maybe Rujano will come storming back?

Lance, he is smart and more devious than most give credit for, IMHO. But I believe 3 weeks of the tour may be too much. Lance has always been dependent on the team dynamic (even with his great strength). I believe the dischord from last year affected he, as much as, Contador. 

If LL and Horner can stay on their bikes and stay healthy, they will be key to dogging Contador. I would say LL understands Contador more closely than any other rider in the pro peleton. With that, he might pass some advantage to Lance, along with his ability to chain himself to another rider's back wheel.

My overall prediction...no one person can go man to man agaianst Contador and win in the tour. It would need to be a combination of factors

This whole isolating himself argument doesn't fly with me. How else does one attack in the end? The only way to really beat him is to stay with him, not _almost_ catch him at the end.
No one has shown an adeptness at doing this of late.


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## ElDepo (Jun 1, 2008)

You guys listen to Bob Roll and Versus too much. The question is who does Radio Shack have that can actually climb with the front group in Paris Nice? RS looked like a non-factor in this race. Granted its March not July. It will be interesting to see what happens at Criterium International. My guess is Contador will lay down the law. It appears Contador is seeking out competition against Lance.

Regarding Contador's tactics on the last stage in Paris Nice, at first I thought he was too aggressive but I think they were smart. First he got the 1 second time bonus at the KOM which gave him an 11 second lead, so even if Valverde won the stage he would only get a 10 second bonus. Also by riding so fast up the last climb, he dropped Sanchez, probably put Valverde in the red zone, he prevented a potential double team attack from Valverde and Sanchez on the downhill run into Nice. I would not want to be at the end of a race with a fresh Valverde and fresh Sanchez going downhill -- that could mean time gaps.

Don't underestimate someone's tactics who has won the Veulta, Grio, Tour, Criterium Intl, etc...these are not small races.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Anyone _can_ be beaten. Contador, because he relies on his ability to just race can always have the odd off-day. But, as a true sportsman, these losses don't bother him or effect his ego, so he always comes back strong.
The only other rider in the peleton who shares this quality is Valverde, who has a better team and sprints better. But he isn't as good a climber or TTer.
All the other top riders (Schleck, Evans, Armstrong) are either too reliant on their teams and tactics, or are simply not quite strong enough to take him on (Mechov, Wiggins for example).

Finally, he doesn't seem anywhere near his best yet. Scarey!!!!


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

Lemond is his prime, or perhaps Fignon. In 2010, no one has the combination of TT, climbing and endurance that Contador currently has. Armstrong did, past tense.
________
NaughtyRed


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

JohnHenry said:


> Menchov can't stick with it in the mountains, but has the TT skills.


except that he falls off his TT bike every time he rides it


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

alexb618 said:


> except that he falls off his bike every time he rides it


Fixed that. He crashed, what, 3 times at the Tour?


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

albert owen said:


> The only other rider in the peleton who shares this quality is Valverde, who has a better team and sprints better. But he isn't as good a climber or TTer.


we can probably not worry about him being a factor for the next couple of years

re menchov, he crashes all the time. still rate him though, his facial expressions when he is suffering are superb.


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

Is Lance even taking it seriously? ALL I ever hear about him is jetting around the place playing the star but is he actually training? And the pictures I've seen he looks on the large side especially with those weightlifter guns he's got - he could probably arm wrestle mike tyson.
Don't get me wrong I am a fan, I'd love to see a 38 year old win the tour - but I certainly won't be a fan if it all turns out to be about money..


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

saird said:


> but I certainly won't be a fan if it all turns out to be about money..


what do you mean *if it all turns out to be about money*


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

i think there appears to be more to consider

watch the climb again, AC was suffering pretty good as expected but I didn't see anything totally earth shattering unless you consider how early in the season his performance is - I mean it was a brilliant effort but he had a hard time dropping Sanchez and couldn't drop everyone






those guys are flying for sure but July is a long way off. His climbing technique is perfect though. To compare him to Lance who seems to be the only other reasonable one to equat him too, Lance would fly at Amstel for example but not near that kind of effort. Amstel is one day, PR is 5. 

I'm sure its fine to have a peak like that this early but still, that's a lot of effort so early. the cycling calender flies by

Armstrong seems to be approaching it differently by doing a slow build to one big peak, kind of staggering instead of trying to build off an early spring "A" race and recover. Recovery is the deciding factor I think between AC and everyone else, he recovers so fast but he was certainly maxed out there


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

CARBON110 said:


> i think there appears to be more to consider
> 
> watch the climb again, AC was suffering pretty good as expected but I didn't see anything totally earth shattering unless you consider how early in the season his performance is - I mean it was a brilliant effort but he had a hard time dropping Sanchez and couldn't drop everyone
> 
> I'm sure its fine to have a peak like that this early but still, that's a lot of effort so early. the cycling calender flies by


I have a completely different take on this, which is that Contador didn't peak at all for P-N, and was instead in (what is for him) early season "B" form. Naturally then, he had to expend a fair amount of effort relative to his current condition. For a rider that recovers as well as Contador seems to though, a few days of harder efforts are not going to cause so much as a hiccup in his overall season planning and peaking.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

CabDoctor said:


> Yeah the thing with Contadoper is he will let himself get isolated. He always does. He is the strongest, way stronger than Armstrong. But with that being said, Armstrong is flanked by the other two smartest guys currently riding bikes, Horner and Levi. So those 3 x 21days x Crazy Mind games and Propaganda = A force to be reckoned with.


The three smartest guys riding bikes are American? What are the odds!


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## California L33 (Jan 20, 2006)

JoelS said:


> Contador will be the one to beat him.


Yup, he races fast, not smart. He needs a Johan in his ear telling him the smart thing to do.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

saird said:


> Is Lance even taking it seriously? ALL I ever hear about him is jetting around the place playing the star but is he actually training? And the pictures I've seen he looks on the large side especially with those weightlifter guns he's got - he could probably arm wrestle mike tyson.
> Don't get me wrong I am a fan, I'd love to see a 38 year old win the tour - but I certainly won't be a fan if it all turns out to be about money..


I am pretty sure you can count on Lance Armstrong taking the Tour de France serious.
I mean, really...


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

Circlip said:


> I have a completely different take on this, which is that Contador didn't peak at all for P-N, and was instead in (what is for him) early season "B" form. Naturally then, he had to expend a fair amount of effort relative to his current condition. For a rider that recovers as well as Contador seems to though, a few days of harder efforts are not going to cause so much as a hiccup in his overall season planning and peaking.


hmmm I like the idea, I mean if that were true just think of the performance we are in for this summer hah!

so this was tot est his form kind of thing, interesting

still guys who win races all year gnerally usually don't win stage races so much, so Bettini or Zabel or the like compared to people who have to carefully choose and rely on a handful of races to test their performance and so come out to win would be my argument to counter that theory - just for discussion sake not to say one is wrong or right


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

CARBON110 said:


> hmmm I like the idea, I mean if that were true just think of the performance we are in for this summer hah!


To reinforce this concept, let us recall 2008 when Contador won the Giro after supposedly being on vacation at the beach (literally or figuratively, who knows...) up to a week prior to the start, with Astana being giving an 11th hour invite.

Ot it just means we watched a P-N that was hotly contested between several riders in varying degrees of "B" condition. While Contador's level may go up for July, so too will the rest of the bunch, although subtle shifts in relative fitness can and will occur that will shake up some positions from event to event.

Let the masses of casual fans be damned, as a year-round follower of the sport I'd rather have riders go old school and race to the best of their abilities through many parts of the year, rather than one or two major peaks. The casual July fans wouldn't notice the difference if the average speed at the TdF bumps off 1-2km/h. Riders competing and making time against one another either in single stages or on GC is what provides the entertainment, not the average speed. 

It's the riders who are specializing and peaking only for specific events who are screwing up the entire enthusiast fan experience, since then other riders must do the same if they want any sniff at a high placing. As the hard core fans, we're the ones who get screwed, since we could be watching the best compete against the best in earnest many months of the year, instead of the current nonsense.

I realize I'm preaching to the choir here. Rant over.


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## emsf5 (Jun 2, 2008)

Would we even be talking about Contador if JB didn't pluck him out of the ashes of O.P.?


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

emsf5 said:


> Would we even be talking about Contador if JB didn't pluck him out of the ashes of O.P.?


Would we even have been talking about JB for the past 4 years if he had not beeen fortunate enough to stumble across Contador getting back on track toward his early career promise after his brain aneurysm?


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

JohnHenry said:


> I am pretty sure you can count on Lance Armstrong taking the Tour de France serious.
> I mean, really...



Whether he takes it or not who cares...gonna be good to see him stomping the pedals in this TdF for perhaps the last time. Since I get to actually "be there" this year, gonna make it all the sweeter. :thumbsup: 

Like it or no, the guy is an icon in the TdF, and raised the bar in modern bike racing all around.

There are a few riders over the years that have been an absolute pleasure to (me personally) see ride and race, for varying reasons. I'll count LA in that number.


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## Fogdweller (Mar 26, 2004)

Circlip said:


> To reinforce this concept, let us recall 2008 when Contador won the Giro after supposedly being on vacation at the beach (literally or figuratively, who knows...) up to a week prior to the start, with Astana being giving an 11th hour invite.


True, he was on vacation when he got the call but he was also in rocket shape when he left for vacation. He'd won the Vuelta a Castilla y León and the Vuelta a País Vasco with two stage wins in each (TTs and climbing stages). The vacation angle was a PR stretch by the team that seems to get repeated over and over again. While he wasn't peaked for grand tour form, he was hardly caught flabby with a daquari in hand. I don't think there's any way this guy looses the tour if he keep the rubber side down, even with team of moderate depth behind him and up against the super teams of LeShack and Saxo.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Whether he takes it or not who cares...gonna be good to see him stomping the pedals in this TdF for perhaps the last time. Since I get to actually "be there" this year, gonna make it all the sweeter. :thumbsup:
> 
> Like it or no, the guy is an icon in the TdF, and raised the bar in modern bike racing all around.
> 
> There are a few riders over the years that have been an absolute pleasure to (me personally) see ride and race, for varying reasons. I'll count LA in that number.



amen!







interesting


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Fogdweller said:


> The vacation angle was a PR stretch by the team that seems to get repeated over and over again. While he wasn't peaked for grand tour form, he was hardly caught flabby with a daquari in hand.


OK, you caught me.


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## California L33 (Jan 20, 2006)

emsf5 said:


> Would we even be talking about Contador if JB didn't pluck him out of the ashes of O.P.?


I think we probably would.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

California L33 said:


> Yup, he races fast, not smart. He needs a Johan in his ear telling him the smart thing to do.


Was Johan telling him what to do last year?


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

MG537 said:


> Was Johan telling him what to do last year?


He did but didn't listen to him, worked out fine.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

Dan Gerous said:


> He did but didn't listen to him, worked out fine.


My point excatly.


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## California L33 (Jan 20, 2006)

Dan Gerous said:


> He did but didn't listen to him, worked out fine.


But is he so good he can ignore tactics every time and still win? You can bet every team is looking at the mistakes he's made and are going to try and make him make them again, and make them costly. Or maybe Contador is a genius, and is making 'mistakes' he knows won't hurt.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

California L33 said:


> But is he so good he can ignore tactics every time and still win? You can bet every team is looking at the mistakes he's made and are going to try and make him make them again, and make them costly. Or maybe Contador is a genius, and is making 'mistakes' he knows won't hurt.


Tactics mostly matter if you have riders of more or less equal abilities going against each other. Something like the 2008 edition when the Schlecks and Sastre triple teamed Evans. However if it was Contador riding for Lotto that year, I doubt that Sastre would've walked away with the yellow jersey.
That being said, the only places I can see Contador loosing time are the cobbles and on a really windy day.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

circlip, until I came across your posts I had plenty to say about models of race preparation but you said it all for me - Contador is something that fans like you and I have been waiting to see for a while now, the 'real thing' as opposed to a 'made' rider.


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

Bianchigirl said:


> circlip, until I came across your posts I had plenty to say about models of race preparation but you said it all for me - Contador is something that fans like you and I have been waiting to see for a while now, the 'real thing' as opposed to a 'made' rider.



The mighty one has spoken, Contyador no longer even needs to visit doping controls ever again :idea:


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## Don Duende (Sep 13, 2007)

Eddy Merckx thinks the Schlecks can do it but not Lance. Past his prime.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/09/forbes-india-interview-eddy-merckx-tour-de-france-winner.html


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Bianchigirl said:


> circlip, until I came across your posts I had plenty to say about models of race preparation but you said it all for me - Contador is something that fans like you and I have been waiting to see for a while now, the 'real thing' as opposed to a 'made' rider.


I wouldn't exactly stake my life on the 'real' aspect, as we've all seen too many icons go down already in the past, or else be perpetually wrapped in a dark cloud along the proverbial lines of "Where there is smoke, there is fire".

Yet, at the same time Contador has managed to keep his nose remarkably clean compared to so many of his contemporaries that it does give me room for a bit of hope. For the price that he must carry around on his head in relation to any credible reports of the negative variety, there's precious little smoke wafting around from staff, riders, journos, etc. except for that which is derived purely on measures of performance in the saddle.

Hoping I haven't condemned this thread to a journey to the other forum now, so long as the mods see this as a positive enough viewpoint to avoid thread reclassification. :blush2:


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## LCFrecrider (Jan 4, 2006)

slightly OT, but did anybody else think Contador looked a lot bigger this year - especially in the legs. Check out these images, for example:

<img src="http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/07/23/contador_wideweb__470x358,0.jpg">

<img src="http://www.chechurubiera.info/i/contador%20pn%20st7.jpg">

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/68th-paris-nice-his/stage-7/photos/110493

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/68th-paris-nice-his/stage-7/photos/110409


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

Yeah I was thinking that - maybe he's looking to do massive damage in the tt but still retaining a enough of a slight build to see off the wimpy schleck in the mountains (who will get steeeeeeeam rolled in the tt).


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## California L33 (Jan 20, 2006)

LCFrecrider said:


> slightly OT, but did anybody else think Contador looked a lot bigger this year - especially in the legs.


I'm so glad we're talking about legs, but yes, it's been mentioned, upper body, too.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

Circlip said:


> I wouldn't exactly stake my life on the 'real' aspect, as we've all seen too many icons go down already in the past, or else be perpetually wrapped in a dark cloud along the proverbial lines of "Where there is smoke, there is fire".
> 
> Yet, at the same time Contador has managed to keep his nose remarkably clean compared to so many of his contemporaries that it does give me room for a bit of hope. For the price that he must carry around on his head in relation to any credible reports of the negative variety, there's precious little smoke wafting around from staff, riders, journos, etc. except for that which is derived purely on measures of performance in the saddle.
> 
> Hoping I haven't condemned this thread to a journey to the other forum now, so long as the mods see this as a positive enough viewpoint to avoid thread reclassification. :blush2:


Oh I'm not naive enough to believe anyone is 'clean' in pro cycling - what I mean is that Contador has shown great promise as a GT rider from the start of his career when he was winning U23 TTs (by his own admission he is a TTer who learnt to climb), he didn't suddenly and miraculously make the switch post injury/illness.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

*Moderators Note*



Bianchigirl said:


> Oh I'm not naive enough to believe anyone is 'clean' in pro cycling - what I mean is that Contador has shown great promise as a GT rider from the start of his career when he was winning U23 TTs (by his own admission he is a TTer who learnt to climb), he didn't suddenly and miraculously make the switch post injury/illness.


And off we go.

Note- a continued pattern of doping hijacks will not go well.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

No attempt at a 'doping' hijack at all - I made a comment and another poster chose to interpret it in that way - not, as I have stated above, the way the remark was intended. I merely mentioned my personal position on the problem that plagues the sport in response to that misinterpretation.

For the record, I think the sport has to look forward to find the rider who will challenge Contador, not backwards and I think - as more GC contenders come out of the woodwork in response to Contador's revised schedule (Andy Schleck has just confirmed for Catalunya) we seem to be seeing a break with the 00s models of GT preparation and, as circlip stated so well, that only benefit us as 52 week fans.


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## pianopiano (Jun 4, 2005)

*Some clarification please?*

I honestly don't comprehend why this thread is in the doping section. I do understand the basic rule that if anyone at all says anything referring to dope, or suspected doping, ie: "I don't think he's clean", etc., the thread will instantly be considered 'hijacked' and promptly moved here. But it doesn't make any sense to me. I am a follower of another popular cycling forum where there is absolutely no issue with discussion of cyclists and doping appearing at the same time, in the same place. It's actually rather refreshing.
So, why is there a separate section for 'pro cycling' and 'doping' here? Is this a way to protect our sensibilities, or just a fear that all pro cycling will somehow become tainted if it comes into contact with a taboo subject? 
Thanks.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

Apparently some posters assume that being a 'real' v a 'made' rider refers to doping - personally I was referring to riders who appear to have it all naturally as opposed to those who have to work hard at it. 

piano, I agree: unfortunately doping - along with buying and selling stages and violence and intimidation - is part of the pro game and not indivisible from it. To immediately consign a thread to a 'doping' forum seems heavy handed and over sensitive at best.

Though it's amusing that references to Conta_doper_ are allowed to stand unchallenged by the moderator.


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## Big-foot (Dec 14, 2002)

:hand: Coolhand's hair-trigger, once again.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Big-foot said:


> :hand: Coolhand's hair-trigger, once again.


Mismatched smilies confuse me. You should probably stick with one, or a consistent theme.

:arf: or use this one. He seems so happy. . .


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## orangeclymer (Aug 18, 2009)

CabDoctor said:


> He is the strongest, way stronger than Armstrong. But with that being said, Armstrong is flanked by the other two smartest guys currently riding bikes, Horner and Levi. So those 3 x 21days x Crazy Mind games and Propaganda = A force to be reckoned with.


If AC is way stronger (which he isn't) then why is LA such a threat?? LA is equal to AC with 1 exception, LA has a much better head on his shoulders in race tactics.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

*Its not the penalty box*



Bianchigirl said:


> Apparently some posters assume that being a 'real' v a 'made' rider refers to doping - personally I was referring to riders who appear to have it all naturally as opposed to those who have to work hard at it.
> 
> piano, I agree: unfortunately doping - along with buying and selling stages and violence and intimidation - is part of the pro game and not indivisible from it. To immediately consign a thread to a 'doping' forum seems heavy handed and over sensitive at best.
> 
> Though it's amusing that references to Conta_doper_ are allowed to stand unchallenged by the moderator.


Did you report it? PM me? Anything? Believe it or not I don't read or see every post. And the vast majority of Moderator time is spent fighting spammers. By the time this one had my attention posts like the ones you noted and were involved with had happened- numerically it made more sense to keep the posts and move the thread. 

Someday in the future, we will be able to have a Landis/Armstrong/Conty/Lemond thread that actually stays on topic. Its my dream.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Beets!

IMO - no one can beat him if he's in top shape. It won't be easy for him, but he'll triumph in the end. He'll pick mountain stages to stick around the pack of select GC riders and some to absolutely floor it.

He'll lose minimal time (assuming he doesn't take time, which is very, very likely) in the TT to the other GC favorites. He'll lose to Fabian but Fabian isn't a GC rider. Unless he sheds a lot of weight and becomes Wiggins but not this year perhaps.

That is all.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

orangeclymer said:


> If AC is way stronger (which he isn't) then why is LA such a threat?? LA is equal to AC with 1 exception, LA has a much better head on his shoulders in race tactics.


Because AC is _much_ younger and in his prime. Plus the course and lack of a TTT help him. 

Andy S is the best shot at beating him this year, but it would be an upset. That said, illness, injury or mis-timing his peak could always happen- but I wouldn't count on it. 

The Giro may be the more competitive race this year- can the "new" Cadel win it?


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

uzziefly said:


> Beets!
> 
> IMO - no one can beat him if he's in top shape. It won't be easy for him, but he'll triumph in the end. He'll pick mountain stages to stick around the pack of select GC riders and some to absolutely floor it.
> 
> ...


 _I disagree_- the young GC guys are too young, and old GC guys are too old. And the fake GC guys (Christian VDV, Wiggo, anyone on Cervelo) are going to be rocketed out the back on the climbs. Andy S need to learn to TT at a contender level. The race of yellow could be very boring this year. 

Take away his radio, add a long TTT with no time protection, and maybe its a race. Maybe.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Coolhand said:


> The race of yellow could be very boring this year.


Might be unfortunately, but there are any number of situations such as mechanicals at inconvenient times, crashes, etc. that might throw a wrench into any attempt at clear domination. I personally find it amazing that the more successful TdF riders historically with multiple GC wins manage to stay out of serious trouble for so many years in a row to win 5, or even 7 times. Ignoring the physical side completely, that does seem to speak to an attention to detail, and powers of concentration day in / day out that almost defy logic and probability. That's quite the skill in of itself.

We can all recall some minor gaffes, but major unexpected incidents took any of the multiple winners out of a leading position completely? Very rare. Contador does seem to have the calm outlook most of the time that probably accompanies this trait, but it's a few years too soon to say if he can achieve the same type of "luck" to stay out of trouble when it counts.



Coolhand said:


> Take away his radio, add a long TTT with no time protection, and maybe its a race. Maybe.


Long TTT obviously, but I'm not inclined to agree about the radio. On at least one stage in the 2009 TdF Contador seemed to be lacking the benefit of in-race tactical information that some of his team mates were privy to. Contador certainly doesn't seem to need a radio to tell him when to attack on a climb. The success to fail ratio of Contador's attacks for sticking, or accomplishing their intent, seems remarkably high to me despite the common portrayal of him as a tactically inept rider. If that's inept, I want some! The old-fashioned system of reporting time gaps on the board would probably suffice just fine for the GC riders to maintain their necessary positions relative to valdi GC threats, and defend against Oscar Pereiro types of scenarios in the daily breaks. It's the sprinters' teams who need the radio more urgently to close the gaps in time for the finale.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

So the first few stages could be the most exciting for us. No overall favorite (or wannabe favorite) who wants a remote chance of beating Contador knows they wont drop him in the mountains and are likely to be pretty even or even lose time in TT stages. I'm guessing Saxo Bank, Radio Shack and BMC will be merciless in the cobbled and windy stages early on, if they can manage to gain time there, they will be able to ride more defensively and try to limit their losses to Contador later on... Everybody will ride like the pre World Champ Cadel and Levi!


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Circlip said:


> Long TTT obviously, but I'm not inclined to agree about the radio. On at least one stage in the 2009 TdF Contador seemed to be lacking the benefit of in-race tactical information that some of his team mates were privy to. Contador certainly doesn't seem to need a radio to tell him when to attack on a climb. The success to fail ratio of Contador's attacks for sticking, or accomplishing their intent, seems remarkably high to me despite the common portrayal of him as a tactically inept rider. If that's inept, I want some! The old-fashioned system of reporting time gaps on the board would probably suffice just fine for the GC riders to maintain their necessary positions relative to valdi GC threats, and defend against Oscar Pereiro types of scenarios in the daily breaks. It's the sprinters' teams who need the radio more urgently to close the gaps in time for the finale.


On the radio I was more thinking of letting a long break go that each of the contender teams (while the DS are freaking out in the cars) dare the other to chase first and it gets a 30min gap (which year was that 2002?), and a dark horse holds on to win.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Coolhand said:


> On the radio I was more thinking of letting a long break go that each of the contender teams (while the DS are freaking out in the cars) dare the other to chase first and it gets a 30min gap (which year was that 2002?), and a dark horse holds on to win.


Yes, that's the Pereiro scenario (hey, it rhymes!) I was referring to. For the GC riders, I don't see where the radios are any more effective than the boards in providing that sort of information - unless you are referring to discussion between DSs arguing over who will work on the front to bring back the escape. Without radios they would figure out way to work it out and get it done 99 times out of 100.

I still maintain that the much more accurate real time reporting of gaps, and corresponding instructions to their riders, is more important for sprinters or other teams angling for stage wins than it is for GC riders, who only have to be concerned about relative placings to other GC threats and not so much about timing the catch perfectly.


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## 2ndGen (Oct 10, 2008)

eyebob said:


> That last stage of P-N was impressive. Although he isolated himself on that last climb by stomping away, he showed that even when isolated, no one was going to lose him off their wheel.
> 
> That guy looks unbeatable come July, unless of course, his team completely fails him.
> 
> ...


*He rides like life...it doesn't matter what happens right up until the end of any major event,
it's how one plows through and gets to the finish line!*

*Reminds me of this quote: 
*
"Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. 
Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. 
Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. 
Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. 
Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. 
The slogan Press On! has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race." 
_*Calvin Coolidge*_




*His name in Spanish means "counter" kind of makes me wonder if the magic number for "Contador" is 8! 
Or maybe it's "2 down, 6 to go!"*


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## 2ndGen (Oct 10, 2008)

Wait a minute, did I just do something wrong by responding to the original subject &
by not talking about doping in a Pro Racing thread that was moved to the doping forum? 

Is talk of the original subject "now" considered







?

What's the protocol here now?


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

no mention of a clean pro as far as i can tell?


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## 2ndGen (Oct 10, 2008)

Ok, so now, the thread is about thread etiquette?
ls it going to be moved to another section? 
Like to The Lounge maybe?

:lol:

And, I refuse to use the "d" [dope/doping/etc...] word!  
And I don't want to add internet chum to the conversation.
I'm not into it and am not much into the soap opera drama of being a cycling Pharisee when it comes to that. 

I want to talk about Alberto Contador here!
That is, "if" I'm allowed to talk about the original topic!

:lol:


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

*Moderator's Note*

Had to delete a personal attack and issue a posting vacation. Let's keep this one on track as there are lots of good thoughts in this thread. 

_____________

/Mod hat off

*Circlip* I was thinking earlier: in either the 2000 or 2002 TdF the teams refused to chase a break and it got massive amounts of time. There were strong teams in the race, they just were trying to force the other to chase first. With radios I think that would be curtailed a bit, without maybe there is a chance this happens. I guess that's a grudging vote for the radio ban. I just want to see a competitive race for the yellow. Don't think its going to happen though- I think this will be like 2001. Green might be non-competitive as well. 

Does a "good" racer shoot for the polka dots this year rather than entertain slim hopes at a podium finish?


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Coolhand said:


> _I disagree_- the young GC guys are too young, and old GC guys are too old. And the fake GC guys (Christian VDV, Wiggo, anyone on Cervelo) are going to be rocketed out the back on the climbs. Andy S need to learn to TT at a contender level. The race of yellow could be very boring this year.
> 
> Take away his radio, add a long TTT with no time protection, and maybe its a race. Maybe.



Well, I was basically inferring that no one is strong enough in general to beat him, young or old.

Andy can't TT like Shaq can't score a free throw, sorta. 

Wiggo - he'll get better this year perhaps but he's a grinding kinda climber.

Valverde? Yeah but he's not as good as Contador. 

Oh well.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Coolhand said:


> I just want to see a competitive race for the yellow. Don't think its going to happen though- I think this will be like 2001. Green might be non-competitive as well.
> 
> Does a "good" racer shoot for the polka dots this year rather than entertain slim hopes at a podium finish?


Gawd, what I would pay to watch a GC battle in which the yellow changed hands a few times between the contenders over the course of three weeks, rather than weed out all but 2-3 riders after the first couple of challenging stages (ITTs or MTFs). What we're far more likely to get is another 3 weeks of watching for any signs of drama that the GC favourite will crack, or that we'll see some stupendous performance from a challenger, only to have Paris arrive once again delivering only the expected result. Same goes for green. I guess that's just the nature of the beast.

Dots never attracted me. Almost by unstated definition it's for the best climber who isn't interested in GC, while the true best climber is often the GC winner. Green has enough delineation for me that I can accept it as a proper race within the race.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Circlip said:


> Gawd, what I would pay to watch a GC battle in which the yellow changed hands a few times between the contenders over the course of three weeks, rather than weed out all but 2-3 riders after the first couple of challenging stages (ITTs or MTFs). What we're far more likely to get is another 3 weeks of watching for any signs of drama that the GC favourite will crack, or that we'll see some stupendous performance from a challenger, only to have Paris arrive once again delivering only the expected result. Same goes for green. I guess that's just the nature of the beast.
> 
> Dots never attracted me. Almost by unstated definition it's for the best climber who isn't interested in GC, while the true best climber is often the GC winner. Green has enough delineation for me that I can accept it as a proper race within the race.


I agree with everything you said. Alas, its down to hoping the breakaways stay away for me and things like that. Looks like the Giro is going to be a fun race this year though.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

The Giro is almost always a much better race to follow than the Tour IMO.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Dan Gerous said:


> The Giro is almost always a much better race to follow than the Tour IMO.


Yeah, the organizers have been much more aggressive with the stage design and overall courses. I am interested to see how Cadel 2.0 does.


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## KILMISTER (Mar 12, 2010)

I'm interested in seeing what Menchov does, he already won the Vuelta and the Giro, and the Tour will be his main goal this year as far as I know.

I do not see any rider beat Contador though.

Who will be beside him on the podium in Paris is a much more difficult question...


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Coolhand said:


> Yeah, the organizers have been much more aggressive with the stage design and overall courses. I am interested to see how Cadel 2.0 does.



I am totally pulling for Cadel in the Giro this year.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

thechriswebb said:


> I am totally pulling for Cadel in the Giro this year.


Me too- Cadel 2.0 is fun to watch.


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

It will be interesting to see what the GC condender's blood values are this year subsequent to the second rest day. The concept of autologous micro level blood doping seems intiguing as a means to circumvent exogenous performance enhancers (r-epo or derivatives, growth hormone, exogenous testosterone and the like). Not saying I condone it, or wish for it, but it certainly has been the allegation by numerous sources. Unfortunately i,ntegrating pro cycling forum with doping is the reality of the situation as history has shown.
________
Park Lane Jomtien Resort Condo


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Surprised to see people questioning Contador's TT prowess. He it the premier TTer in grand tours, he beat Cancellara in the long TT at last year's Tour and FC was VERY dissapointed (indicating he felt he was on his best form). He's strong, he's a great climber and I have to believe Lance is most worried about whether or not he'll be able to get back onto terms in the TT (the one area where he didn't manage to make an impression in last year's Tour IMO). 

All that said, I think Contador has already made the move that will cost him the Tour. He didn't get out of his Astana contract. They're not going to be able to be well enough organized (if even strong enough) to do much for him when it counts. He'll fall on the cobbles and lose 5+ minutes because his team won't be able to bring back the Saxo and RS crews. He'll get isolated early in mountain stages and not be able to cover everyone, every day. There's the risk of some unknown Kaz rider dropping a positive and preventing him from going, again. Assuming Astana handles the condition that Vino doesn't race (my prediction) without getting their invitiation pulled...


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

Contador isn't Mayo - the latter was a fragile climber on a minor Spanish team who had absolutely no pedigree over the cobbles. Contador will have riders of the calibre of Tiralongo, Iglinsky, Noval, Pereiro and Vinokourov to shepherd him through any early difficulties. And Contador is predominantly a TTer - he can roule when he needs to.

As for Vino not racing - Prudhomme has already said that's the price he'll have to pay for having the defending champion in the race.

I think the problem is that Contador clearly gets into Armstrong - and his legion of fanboys - heads far more than any of them want him to. I see the full on gastroentiritis has been downgraded to 'gastroenteritis like symptoms' - enough to pull out of MSR, suggest a huge loss of form for CI and explain the loss of the Cartman like girth LA has been sporting. By letting his legs do the talking like a true champion AC has initmidated LA far more effectively than the other way round.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Coolhand said:


> Me too- Cadel 2.0 is fun to watch.


Agreed. I've never been a fan of Cadel (neither his riding style nor his personal interactions and comments about his team etc), but it seems the move to BMC really does agree with him. He appears to be happy to have the support of the team and really likes where he is right now. All that makes him a more dynamic rider to watch.


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## martinrjensen (Sep 23, 2007)

*why is this thread in the Doping forum?*

I haven't read much about doping here. Shouldn't this be in the regular forum?


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

Bianchigirl said:


> Contador isn't Mayo - the latter was a fragile climber on a minor Spanish team who had absolutely no pedigree over the cobbles. Contador will have riders of the calibre of Tiralongo, Iglinsky, Noval, Pereiro and Vinokourov to shepherd him through any early difficulties. And Contador is predominantly a TTer - he can roule when he needs to.
> 
> As for Vino not racing - Prudhomme has already said that's the price he'll have to pay for having the defending champion in the race.
> 
> I think the problem is that Contador clearly gets into Armstrong - and his legion of fanboys - heads far more than any of them want him to. I see the full on gastroentiritis has been downgraded to 'gastroenteritis like symptoms' - enough to pull out of MSR, suggest a huge loss of form for CI and explain the loss of the Cartman like girth LA has been sporting. By letting his legs do the talking like a true champion AC has initmidated LA far more effectively than the other way round.


Agreed, 100%. Media spin will only get Armstrong so far, race results will be noted in the history books.
________
Laguna Beach Resort Jometien Condos


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

I wonder if this is why we'll see Armstrong pull out of CI - in order to preserve the myth of a credible rivalry. After all, not much great PR to be had out of a potential pasting, is there?


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

Lance is literally pooping his pants!
________
ROLL BLUNTS


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## Big-foot (Dec 14, 2002)

*This post...*



rubbersoul said:


> Lance is literally pooping his pants!


...is useless without pics.


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

Big-foot said:


> ...is useless without pics.


that`s just sick..


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

rubbersoul said:


> that`s just sick..


No, sick comes from the mouth - poop comes from the bum (generally).


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## willhs (Apr 10, 2009)

I think I'm starting to get this right -- to be an elitist cyclist you have to have disdain for Lance and Trek.

So, "I hear Trek makes good bikes" and Lance is teh suck.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

willhs said:


> I think I'm starting to get this right -- to be an elitist cyclist you have to have disdain for Lance and Trek.
> 
> So, "I hear Trek makes good bikes" and Lance is teh suck.


That would be incorrect. The joke is "*Does Trek make good bikes?*" Based on 10,000 posts in General over the years. 

Elite and hating Lance, completely unrelated. There is a very vocal sub-group on RBR that thinks Lance/RS/Johan = the Devil. And they are _very_ happy to share their opinions and worldviews on this topic. That doesn't make them right or wrong, just random people on the internet with opinions. If you find them annoying- use the ignore feature in user options.


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

Lance does some good work for cancer awareness. My point simply is that Contador will beat him in this year's tour. Could be wrong, but that's my prediction.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

albert owen said:


> Anyone _can_ be beaten. Contador, because he relies on his ability to just race can always have the odd off-day. But, as a true sportsman, these losses don't bother him or effect his ego, so he always comes back strong.
> The only other rider in the peleton who shares this quality is Valverde, who has a better team and sprints better. But he isn't as good a climber or TTer.
> All the other top riders (Schleck, Evans, Armstrong) are either too reliant on their teams and tactics, or are simply not quite strong enough to take him on (Mechov, Wiggins for example).
> 
> Finally, he doesn't seem anywhere near his best yet. Scarey!!!!


Anything can happen. Does anyone remember how Iban Mayo or Simoni or Cunego were supposed to be running away with TdF crown, or at least become serious threats for a podium? I, for sure, thought Basso was going to be easily a multiple Giro/TdF winner a few years ago, same with Valverde.

With so many changes at Astana, I would wait till actual TdF, cobbles and fast-paced weeks of flat stages and all to see who emerges as the leader before making any predictions. 

For now Contador must be considered a hands-down favorite to win, but as always, he is one bonk, one illness, one crash, one missed breakaway away from missing out entirely.


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## willhs (Apr 10, 2009)

55x11, that was the most insightful post on this thread.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

55x11 said:


> Anything can happen. Does anyone remember how Iban Mayo or Simoni or Cunego were supposed to be running away with TdF crown, or at least become serious threats for a podium? I, for sure, thought Basso was going to be easily a multiple Giro/TdF winner a few years ago, same with Valverde.
> 
> With so many changes at Astana, I would wait till actual TdF, cobbles and fast-paced weeks of flat stages and all to see who emerges as the leader before making any predictions.
> 
> For now Contador must be considered a hands-down favorite to win, but as always, he is one bonk, one illness, one crash, one missed breakaway away from missing out entirely.


But unlike Mayo, Simoni and Cunego, Contador has proven his worth even under very unfavorable conditions. Although the Lance/Johan twitterama campaign says otherwise, I think Contador is very mature and relaxed when dealing with setbacks and those two child like name calling and media string pullings.

Basso would probably have a few Grand Tour wins today if it wasn't from his ban. And he's probably not doping now, or at least not as much...

But, yes, we can't do much other than see Contador as a heavy favorite. Nothing is carved in stone before the actual race takes place.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

willhs said:


> 55x11, that was the most insightful post on this thread.


probably helps to quote it in big threads like this one.


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