# Lance Wins Florida.



## Scott in MD (Jun 24, 2008)

(This would be in the triathlon forum if it wasn't Lance.) Lance won Ironman Florida 70.3.... By ten minutes.... He went 2h01 on the 56 mile bike.... that basically gives him a mile and a half head start on most other racers, but he still went 1h15 run, which is pretty freakin' good considering no one else was anywhere near him. Wow.


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

Do they test the winners and/or keep a bio passport record ?


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Is his goal to do Ironman in Hawaii this year? I don't know anything about tri, but what are his chances in Kona if he sets his sites on it?


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## Scott in MD (Jun 24, 2008)

Yep, he is racing Kona. Usually 8h10 will podium, but Crowie went 8h03 last year ... and someone is bound to go sub-8 in perfectamundo conditons some time. I would think lousy bike conditions help him. Lance was fifth out of the water today in Florida 70.3 (<25mins) and swam 1m22 behind first-out-of-H2O and former Olympic swimmmer Andy Potts in St Croix 70.3 ... so figure with swim and 2 transitions Lance is well under an hour. The 3rd fastest bike of all time is 4h20. Add those up and then he could run 3h and that would give him sub-8h20. Could he run 2h45 and win? Well, he ran 1h15 today ... so yeah, he could run 2h45 and win. Wow.


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## jeffmuldoon (Aug 12, 2011)

Salsa_Lover said:


> Do they test the winners and/or keep a bio passport record ?


Not sure of the exact protocols but yes the do anti doping controls. I'm sure they test the winners and they do test in-between races etc.


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## cyclusaddictus (Dec 8, 2011)

Just shy of a 45 km/h ITT. That helps...


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## rgg01 (Jun 21, 2011)

I don't think he'll be anywhere near winning Kona but he will be competitive and if it was age groups we were talking about he'd be in with a shout. Tri basically is a running race with some swimming and biking thrown in, he will lose time on the swim, he's ok but not really up to this standard, he will obviously murder the course record on the bike, but the top guys will take 30 minutes off him at least on the run. But whatever he does I'm totally impressed that he can take up this sport and almost will himself to be competitive.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

rgg01 said:


> I don't think he'll be anywhere near winning Kona but he will be competitive and if it was age groups we were talking about he'd be in with a shout. Tri basically is a running race with some swimming and biking thrown in, he will lose time on the swim, he's ok but not really up to this standard, he will obviously murder the course record on the bike, but the top guys will take 30 minutes off him at least on the run. But whatever he does I'm totally impressed that he can take up this sport and almost will himself to be competitive.


you do know which sport he started out in right?


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## JasonB176 (Aug 18, 2011)

So he averaged about 28MPH for the cycling part. How does this compare to his individual time trials that he's done in the past? Were there any that were 56 miles long?


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## rgg01 (Jun 21, 2011)

I'm well aware of his past, but he's a 41 year old guy who hasn't seriously raced tri's for 20 years and he's basically back to being a beginner, albeit a superhuman one.


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## Scott in MD (Jun 24, 2008)

rgg01 said:


> Tri basically is a running race with some swimming and biking thrown in ....


So clearly you've raced a lot of triathlons, yeah? Because racers spend more time on the bike than swim and run combined .... so I was thinking this is not a well-informed opinion.

He's a better swimmer than most other pro racers ... won't give up much time on the winner in the water. I think in tough windy bike conditions he could go top 5. And Kona bike is tough and windy. 

I guess we'll see.


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## hatone (May 8, 2011)

Gotta give credit where it's due. Winning this at the age of 40 is truly remarkable.


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## JasonB176 (Aug 18, 2011)

JasonB176 said:


> So he averaged about 28MPH for the cycling part. How does this compare to his individual time trials that he's done in the past? Were there any that were 56 miles long?


To answer my own question, I researched to find that he did the 29.1 mile 2000 Olympic Time Trial in 58:15 for an average of 29.97MPH. It's impressive that he can now go twice that distance still averaging 28MPH twelve years later.


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## Scott in MD (Jun 24, 2008)

rgg01 said:


> I'm well aware of his past, but he's a 41 year old guy who hasn't seriously raced tri's for 20 years and he's basically back to being a beginner, albeit a superhuman one.


Actually, he hasn't seriously raced tris for about 20 hours, since yesterday. He has two top five finishes in half-iron distance races, and has been training triathlon specific for well over a year now.

Regarding "basically a beginner...." Heck, I'm basically a beginner. 3h45 is not beginner stuff. 3h45 really is a world-class number.

The hilly bike at Vegas 70.3 World Championship sets up for him a little better than Kona ... I wonder if he will race Vegas in September.


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## gordy748 (Feb 11, 2007)

Scott in MD said:


> So clearly you've raced a lot of triathlons, yeah? Because racers spend more time on the bike than swim and run combined .... so I was thinking this is not a well-informed opinion.
> 
> He's a better swimmer than most other pro racers ... won't give up much time on the winner in the water. I think in tough windy bike conditions he could go top 5. And Kona bike is tough and windy.
> 
> I guess we'll see.


Play nice... I know a couple of (ex) pro triathletes. To be a good pro you need to be very good at all three disciples, but nobody is best at all three. But if you want to be the best, the one discipline to have in your pocket is running. 

1) You cannot make up that much time in the swimming, but you can lose it.
2) The wind resistance generated at the speed triathletes cycle at means that you have to be almost impossibly stronger to have a significant, winning margin at the run transition.
3) The variation in speed between a good and poor runner is much wider than a fast or slow cyclist. And the slower speed means that there is more time to be gained being quicker in a 10k run than a 40k bike ride than you may think.

It's not to say that you can't win a triathlon being a slow runner, but you're much less likely to win.

Personally I think Lance has a very small chance at best of winning in Hawaii, but have no doubt he'll be competitive. And good for him; he may have taken drugs, but at a time when the entire peloton was high as kites. He's still a winner in my book. :thumbsup:


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## Scott in MD (Jun 24, 2008)

Re: Playing nice. Yep, agree.

I appreciate the interesting thread amd diverse opinions .... always interesting in here when the topic is LA.... and this is a different topic than usual.


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

gordy748 said:


> Play nice... I know a couple of (ex) pro triathletes. To be a good pro you need to be very good at all three disciples, but nobody is best at all three. But if you want to be the best, the one discipline to have in your pocket is running.
> 
> 1) You cannot make up that much time in the swimming, but you can lose it.
> 2) The wind resistance generated at the speed triathletes cycle at means that you have to be almost impossibly stronger to have a significant, winning margin at the run transition.
> ...


Tris can be lost in the water, but are WON on the run. If Lance wants to podium in Kona, he needs to get out of the water in the top 1%, kill it on the bike (he should) and run a top 3 time in the run. he basically news to become one the the better Tri runners. can he do it? I think so, but we will see. Like someone said, he is on of the better swimmers, most likely best biker, so he needs to make tim in the run to win.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

JasonB176 said:


> So he averaged about 28MPH for the cycling part. How does this compare to his individual time trials that he's done in the past? Were there any that were 56 miles long?


The TdF ITTs are shorter, usually in the mid-30s in terms of miles. 

FTR, he did the 1999 stage 8 ITT in 30.7 mph.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Sick performance. In earlier interviews of him, he said something about his goal being about 3 minutes ahead after the bike stage. He was 10 minutes ahead yesterday.

That's not the most impressive part, he actually had faster running times than anyone in the top 5!


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## Rokh On (Oct 30, 2011)

LOL when I saw this thread was moved I really started laughing. I thought for sure a certain Lance "supporter" had commented and the thread was moved to the doping forum


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## al0 (Jan 24, 2003)

It does not matter how much time is spent in each discipline, what matters how big are gaps (and gaps may be not correlated with time spent). 


Scott in MD said:


> So clearly you've raced a lot of triathlons, yeah? Because racers spend more time on the bike than swim and run combined .... so I was thinking this is not a well-informed opinion.
> 
> He's a better swimmer than most other pro racers ... won't give up much time on the winner in the water. I think in tough windy bike conditions he could go top 5. And Kona bike is tough and windy.
> 
> I guess we'll see.


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## Urb (Jul 19, 2010)

Not reasonable to expect him to win Kona. Anything top 10 would be amazing this year. Takes time to put all the pieces together and something you can only learn in true race conditions. That is evident in his 1/2 irons this year. He is Lance and has a lifetime of experience and understanding of what it takes to win and I'm sure he'll perform sooner than later.


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## Bob Wade (Jun 22, 2011)

*Kona*

Lance is a tremendous athlete no matter the sport; cycling, running (NYC Marathon), or triathlons. Expecting him to win at Kona in his first attempt might be a little much though. As everyone pretty much agrees he can dominate the bike, with enough to make up for any swim deficiency. His run might be enough to crack the top 5, but the fourth leg of any IM, and especially Kona is nutrition. Ask such athletes as 2 time champ Chris McCormack or 3 time champ Craig Alexander, or many others,the slightest mistake can ruin the whole race. I just personally believe that going from a 1/2IM to an IM is a whole different race. Great discussion by the way. :thumbsup:


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

Bob Wade said:


> Lance is a tremendous athlete no matter the sport; cycling, running (NYC Marathon), or triathlons. Expecting him to win at Kona in his first attempt might be a little much though. As everyone pretty much agrees he can dominate the bike, with enough to make up for any swim deficiency. His run might be enough to crack the top 5, but the fourth leg of any IM, and especially Kona is nutrition. Ask such athletes as 2 time champ Chris McCormack or 3 time champ Craig Alexander, or many others,the slightest mistake can ruin the whole race. I just personally believe that going from a 1/2IM to an IM is a whole different race. Great discussion by the way. :thumbsup:


Your so right! Nutrition and prep for a Ironman is critical, let alone Kona! Things is, he was near a pro/Olympian quality swimmer at 16. But time away and the opens sea at Kona is another story. I can see a top 4-8 finish his first time out. But winning or a podium in his first race there, would be a miracle.


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## Scott in MD (Jun 24, 2008)

Don't look now but LA just won Ironman Hono 70.3 against a seriously fast field. Haters gonna' hate .... But dude's got game. You still think he's just doing this as a hobby?


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## Scott in MD (Jun 24, 2008)

LA gave up six (yep, six) seconds on the fastest swimmer, then proceeded to beat Lieto on the bike and crush the course record held by two-time Kona World Champion Macca. Olympian Greg Bennett said today was hottest/windiest conditions he's ever raced in. Hater's gonna' hate, but I'm thinking Kona is not a publicity stunt.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

He seems to have figured out the 70.3 thing pretty well, but he's gotta get some points at the full distance. I'm not a tri-guy, but I should think a full IM is pretty tough thing, even for an athlete of Armstrong's ability.

JSR


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Ironman Nice is up next (June 24). I've read that the Nice course is more difficult than today's course due to a hilly bike section. With age, Lance hasn't climbed as well as in the past, but that should be another good test from him. I agree with JSR above, that full Ironman length is a whole different level than 70.3, but I got to say that I'm personally impressed that he's transferred over to tri so well at 41 y/o. I'm no fanboy, but at least he's not sitting on his butt and growing old and fat (unlike me!).


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## Moops (Feb 18, 2010)

We'll see how he does at 140.6 in Nice, but Lance is proving to be a serious contender. On the bike he is unmatched (obviously) and on the swim and run he ain't no slouch! I didn't follow cycling when he was at the top of the sport, but I'm watching him now in Ironmans and it's hard not to be impressed. I'm excited to see how he will force all the other IM pros to elevate their game.

A big bonus to Lance going back to tri's is that if he gets to Kona he might be the force that tips the scales so NBC will broadcast some live coverage from Kona this year.


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## Scott in MD (Jun 24, 2008)

I heard WTC is donating $1M to Livestrong Foundation as a result of LA's decision to race Kona... so they also feel like he will bring a lot of attention. Anybody else hear this?


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

burgrat said:


> Ironman Nice is up next (June 24). I've read that the Nice course is more difficult than today's course due to a hilly bike section. With age, Lance hasn't climbed as well as in the past, but that should be another good test from him.


He hasn't climbed as well compared to elite cyclists, not compared to triatheletes. I'd guess that his advantage over the other cyclists will be even bigger on hillier courses.


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## early one (Jul 20, 2010)

3:50:55 for the 70.3 in Kohala. IMHO not bad for a 41 year old retiree.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Going from 70.3 to full IM distance is a whole 'nuther thing for sure but lets remember, in 1999 when he won the Tour, he was not a pro rookie, he was a seasoned, winning pro that had done decently in only one grand tour before (the 98' Vuelta). That tells me that he and his coaches are good at figuring out what is necessary to win tremendously hard events without necessarily doing many of them to learn. He also smashed the Leadville 100 MTB course record despite having done only a handful of MTB races in his career.

However unlikely it is that he doesn't win Kona, I would not write him off. He held and grew his gap on the running leg over Greg Bennett last weekend, who I'm told should have overhauled him for 4-5 min in the run.


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## David Loving (Jun 13, 2008)

I thought he ran triathlons as a youngster in Plano, TX. None of this is new to him IIRC.


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## ronderman (May 17, 2010)

Lance had a facebook contest to guess "his" finishing time. I guessed 4 days, 22 hours, 56 minutes and 13 seconds. 

Still not sure if I won or not, but I got a lot of "likes."


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

no spoliers!!!


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