# TdF 2014 Stage 11 Jul 16 Discuss'n Thread (spoilers)



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

TdF 2014 Stage 11 Jul 16 Discuss'n Thread (spoilers)

[Just a reminder: Be careful with "spoilers:" revealing race events in post titles that spoil it for those who are waiting to watch the stage at a later time. Sure, it is dumb to peak in this forum if you don't want to know, but it is the rules.]

So, here we are in the Alps. At least a modest arm of the Alps. I hope you enjoyed your rest day. Keep in mind the competitors spent their rest day riding at least 60 miles somewhere, possibly up a mountain, to keep the energy flowing.

The Specialized website has no recent recalls posted, so the story stands that Contador simply crashed out, versus a revitalization of the steel-is-real argument. Specialized Bicycle Components

This stage covers about 110 miles of sawtooth terrain. For a mountain stage, it is straighter than most. The first three-fifths should not be that difficult for these guys, but the modest climbs and turns present excellent opportunities to develop and cultivate breakaways. The Tour is wide open now for stage victories and for overall winner. The overall win will, as in every year, go to someone who can perform very well on one of the few monster climbs, and hold their own in the time trial. A stage like today can allow someone from a bit down in the standings to pick up some time and possibly end up on the podium, if losses can be otherwise managed.

Probably, each team will see this breakaway opportunity, and will try to plan for something in the breakaway. It is likely that there will be another rare-air, cool-kids lunch-table echelon, likely where the MJ will want to be, ahead of the peleton, with an acceptable breakaway or two ahead of that. Some great riders are quite far down in time, and so there are many who can aim for a day's glory without threatening the likely tour winners. This structure, with breakaways, then a cool-kid echelon, presents great opportunity for one or a few riders to bridge forward - either from peleton to the MJ group, or the MJ group to a leading breakaway. A good breakaway with enough riders allows someone like Tony Martin, Voekler, or Chavanel to have an impressive day up front. A lot of energy has been expended, and so it is possible for anyone to mis-judge energy, ride too hard, and run out of steam.

So, this structure may form in the first three-fifths, leaving the final two-thirds for those who dare: there are five steep climbs in about 25 miles, with points at the top of four of them. Following this is a descent of about ten miles into a town with a name I cannot pronounce, but looks like "Aoxomoxoa." The first half of the descent is difficult, but it flattens out a lot, and the entrance to the town looks relatively tame, with the final kilometer a straight shot for the finish line. If anyone has any legs left, it might be exciting to see a contested finish. Riders may be using the break from pedaling on that downhill to expend energy jockeying for position in the overall standings, and leaders may try to limit damage on this relatively calm end. No Cav to watch out for, but do mind Talansky if he is coming through.

The weather overall is supposed to be clear, with little wind. Podium girls should be advised to wear make-up with an SPF factor. As always, there may be showers up in the mountains, giving us some of that NASCAR appeal.


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## SNS1938 (Aug 9, 2013)

I'm looking forward to this first stage back. All the riders who thought they were at the tour this year to battle it out for 3rd place, are now in a position to work together against Nibali. So so so much better than 2013's skybot/Froome parade.


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## BassNBrew (Aug 4, 2008)

SNS1938 said:


> I'm looking forward to this first stage back. All the riders who thought they were at the tour this year to battle it out for 3rd place, are now in a position to work together against Nibali. So so so much better than 2013's skybot/Froome parade.


The Astana/Nibali parade steamrolls the Sbybot 2013 version. Nibali has this locked up and we haven't even hit his favored terrain.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I think that Astana will be worn out by the time the third week comes around and that Nibbles will be left to fend for himself in the Pyrenees. 

This might be a good stage for Sagan or Greipel.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

I'm calling it, Sagan finally gets his first stage victory this TDF year.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Skewer said:


> I'm calling it, Sagan finally gets his first stage victory this TDF year.


Well his lack of enthusiasm for the intermediate sprint was certainly on display.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

He's saving energy in the end if Kittel and Griepel should be in the last 300 meters.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Poor Talansky is not doing well. I was hoping the rest day would have done him some good, but doesn't look like it.

I too think Sagan is saving his energy for the end. He seems to be a person who likes to learn from each stage/race he's in and loosing by a hair in the last sprint finish was enough for him to learn to leave something for the very end.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

love4himies said:


> Poor Talansky is not doing well. I was hoping the rest day would have done him some good, but doesn't look like it.
> 
> I too think Sagan is saving his energy for the end. He seems to be a person who likes to learn from each stage/race he's in and loosing by a hair in the last sprint finish was enough for him to learn to leave something for the very end.


Now that talansky has crested that hill, he can gain some good time on the down-hill.

--I don't know what sagan was trying to do earlier in an early breakaway.

Not much is happening today, and the overall speed seems low for this type of stage, at 26mph.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

I hope he can. He's currently 6 min behind the peloton according to Eurosport.

I have to go to a meeting, so I may miss the end of the stage. I hope Talansky holds on to finish the stage and not abandon.


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## pone (Sep 19, 2012)

well, if he does, we'll be sure to see it. they haven't cut away from Talansky riding solo for the last 10 minutes.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

love4himies said:


> I hope he can. He's currently 6 min behind the peloton according to Eurosport.
> 
> I have to go to a meeting, so I may miss the end of the stage. I hope Talansky holds on to finish the stage and not abandon.





pone said:


> well, if he does, we'll be sure to see it. they haven't cut away from Talansky riding solo for the last 10 minutes.


If Talansky finishes I think he won't make the cutoff.

Too bad.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Marc said:


> If Talansky finishes I think he won't make the cutoff.
> 
> Too bad.


That's my worry too.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

love4himies said:


> That's my worry too.


That Garmin are driving the pace and not sending anybody back, they seem to think his goose is cooked too.


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## Retro Grouch (Apr 30, 2002)

I believe Talansky would rather be eliminated than just give up.

He'll be back and this experience will only make him stronger in the future.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Retro Grouch said:


> I believe Talansky would rather be eliminated than just give up.
> 
> He'll be back and this experience will only make him stronger in the future.


Well, he just climbed off the bike and having a long old talk with the DS roadside. Sucky, but for the best considering how banged up he was.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Now that Talansky is gone, it's all up to Tejay.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Retro Grouch said:


> I believe Talansky would rather be eliminated than just give up.
> 
> He'll be back and this experience will only make him stronger in the future.


That ^^

He's nicknamed Pitbull for a reason.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

love4himies said:


> Crap. I was hoping he was going to make it.


He got back on....but at this point 21'+ down with 20+km to go for him. And it is only going to get higher as the mad rush at the end sets in


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Marc said:


> Well, he just climbed off the bike and having a long old talk with the DS roadside. Sucky, but for the best considering how banged up he was.


Crap. I was hoping he was going to make it.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

I don't see a twitter that he abandoned. Does anybody know for sure?

Edit, just saw Marc's post


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## Retro Grouch (Apr 30, 2002)

Talansky is 22 mins back.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Retro Grouch said:


> Talansky is 22 mins back.


Rough math by the Eurosport boys says the cutoff will be around 34 minutes... 13% of the finishing time is the days margin.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Estimate that Talansky has 34 minutes to cross the line. He's 23 back so if he can keep up his pace he may make it.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Go go Gallopin.

Sagan almost followed a wrong line off a curve, yikes.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Marc said:


> If Sagan wasn't too busy looking to anyone else to lead out his chase...
> 
> 
> Great win by Gallopin


Dang gummit Sagan.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

And the countdown begins for Talansky.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Skewer said:


> I'm calling it, Sagan finally gets his first stage victory this TDF year.


If Sagan wasn't too busy looking to anyone else to lead out his chase... 


Great win by Gallopin


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

If Talansky doesn't make the cut-off, I'm wondering of Garmin won't regret keeping at least one rider back to help him out.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Marc said:


> If Sagan wasn't too busy looking to anyone else to lead out his chase...
> 
> 
> Great win by Gallopin


I agree.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

sagan keeps strategizing like 'day late dollar short.' i am surprised.

go talansky, go!


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

He'll make it 2km to go and 5 min to do it.


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## Retro Grouch (Apr 30, 2002)

19:04:24 CEST


Talansky makes the time cut.


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## Winn (Feb 15, 2013)

Retro Grouch said:


> 19:04:24 CEST
> 
> 
> Talansky makes the time cut.



I wonder if he'll show up tomorrow...


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Winn said:


> I wonder if he'll show up tomorrow...


He's said he's in terrible pain, hopefully he will be able to ride tomorrow. It would be a shame after today's effort. 

But I have to say, shame on Garmin for not keeping one guy back to take the pull for him and to give him moral support. It's almost like they abandoned him and I bet JV is going to get a lot of flack for that.


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## Buzzatronic (Mar 18, 2013)

PJay said:


> sagan keeps strategizing like 'day late dollar short.' i am surprised.


I think the problem is Sagan is a "freestyle" sprinter AND the Cannondale team isn't so great and leading him out even he was willing to follow them.

Bummed he hasn't gotten a stage win yet, I would have expected at least one by now.


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## paredown (Oct 18, 2006)

Buzzatronic said:


> I think the problem is Sagan is a "freestyle" sprinter AND the Cannondale team isn't so great and leading him out even he was willing to follow them.
> 
> Bummed he hasn't gotten a stage win yet, I would have expected at least one by now.


He's a marked man--if he leads out, someone with a little more pure speed pips him at the line; if he waits, no one else wants to lead out, 'cause they know he is deadly at positioning himself to get by at the line. In those moments of hesitation, that's when a freelancer attacks and gets away--we've seen it twice now.

He'll get his stage win--I'm confident.


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## paredown (Oct 18, 2006)

love4himies said:


> He's said he's in terrible pain, hopefully he will be able to ride tomorrow. It would be a shame after today's effort.
> 
> But I have to say, shame on Garmin for not keeping one guy back to take the pull for him and to give him moral support. It's almost like they abandoned him and I bet JV is going to get a lot of flack for that.


I think it had been discussed, and Andrew knew he was on his own if he fell off the back. 

It was the same area of the lower back that looked like it was spasming at the finish before the rest day, so his day off did not settle it down.

Once you have enough damage so that you can't relax on the bike, or have to favor one side over the other it gets very hard to do those long days at speed.

Impressive that he got back on and finished on his own--he is certainly mentally tough enough to be a Tour winner one day.

FWIW, Ted King blogged about riding in pain and the decision to abandon--this should make the armchair critics take notice:

Yeah | I Am Ted King


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

paredown said:


> I think it had been discussed, and Andrew knew he was on his own if he fell off the back.
> 
> It was the same area of the lower back that looked like it was spasming at the finish before the rest day, so his day off did not settle it down.
> 
> ...


Andrew is definitely a hero in my books. I couldn't imagine racing with such pain and I don't think anybody would blame him for even not starting today, let alone doing 80km by himself. I'm sure he'll be remembered for a long time.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

I hope i don't get flamed for this, but the smartest thing Talansky could have done is quit and prepare for Vuelta/Worlds. 

The way he is riding in pain, it seems very unlikely he can recover and get over his injuries completely and be competitive enough to win a stage later on (but stranger things have happened). He got a lot of camera time today, but I think he needs to be focused on getting healthy again, not suffer through injured back all for nothing.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

55x11 said:


> I hope i don't get flamed for this, but the smartest thing Talansky could have done is quit and prepare for Vuelta/Worlds.
> 
> The way he is riding in pain, it seems very unlikely he can recover and get over his injuries completely and be competitive enough to win a stage later on (but stranger things have happened). He got a lot of camera time today, but I think he needs to be focused on getting healthy again, not suffer through injured back all for nothing.


Why the Vuelta? They have Ryder and I think Dan that are planning to go and that is why they are not at the Tour now. 

My thoughts are that Andrew is a bit stubborn and a whole lot of fight in him and the team is leaving the decision to him to make.


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