# Conti on the Cobbles



## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

Riding the cobbles for a few days to prepare for the TdF is about as meaningful as preparing for skydiving by jumping out of a kid’s tree house. He missed the opportunity to experience the ludicrous speed of the peloton entering the pave during a race (P-R & RVV). No one is guaranteed smooth sailing over them, but you gotta wonder if he’ll be facing rougher seas than other GC riders.

Did Astana send any TdF riders to P-R or RVV?


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## jupiterrn (Sep 22, 2006)

Black carbon bike on pavers and in the sunlight.....recipe for explosion.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

The Moontrane said:


> Riding the cobbles for a few days to prepare for the TdF is about as meaningful as preparing for skydiving by jumping out of a kid’s tree house. He missed the opportunity to experience the ludicrous speed of the peloton entering the pave during a race (P-R & RVV). No one is guaranteed smooth sailing over them, but you gotta wonder if he’ll be facing rougher seas than other GC riders.
> 
> Did Astana send any TdF riders to P-R or RVV?



Astana only sent a team for RVV but stage 3 will run on P-R roads including the Arenberg forest sector. RVV is not the same thing. It could spell big trouble for Contador. It would be treat to watch if it just so happens to rain that day.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

No point in anyone reccying any TdF stages in advance then - and there was me thinking that was the secret to Armstrong's prolonged TdF success, his attention to detail. Did LA ride Roubaix in 2004, the last time the race crossed the cobbles?


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Fingerbang!


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Bianchigirl said:


> Did LA ride Roubaix in 2004, the last time the race crossed the cobbles?


Don't know, but Armstrong has shown that he is a great bike handler, he races MTB, and in 2004 he had two great cobble riders in Hincapie and Ekimov to marshal him through the pave. Can you say the same about Contador?


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## farm (Jul 10, 2008)

Contador is not Mayo, and Astana is not Euskatel. I don't doubt that the Shack will try something, but I wouldn't count on it working. I don't know if Contador has many friends or much influence in the peloton, but if he does, I would expect him to utilize that also. He's not a wilting flower like Mayo, and he has shown he's not intimidated by Armstrong and Bruyneel.

The idea that riding the secteurs with dePeet can't help is laughable.


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## izzyfly (Jul 10, 2009)

The Moontrane said:


> Riding the cobbles for a few days to prepare for the TdF is about as meaningful as preparing for skydiving by jumping out of a kid’s tree house.


Not a fair comparison, since the assumption is that the "he" above never took to the sky either via bungee jumping, or base jumping. The better comparison might be someone who's an expert in kempo karate, and now finds himself having to compete in mixed martial arts. There will be training involved, but the guy's been in the mean streets, he's been in combat before.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

No GC contender will win or lose the 2010 TdF on these cobbled sections. It will be won, by Contador, in the way that all TdFs get won, on the time trials and a couple of decisive mountain stages.

Boring but true.


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

Agree with pretender - the race will be won in the mountains and the TT's.

That pic almost looks as though it is a pose rather than Conti working out - his clothes are too clean and white - not typical cobbles look.


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## vw_steggie (Mar 27, 2007)

Nice wheels


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## HeluvaSkier (Sep 11, 2007)

The Tour won't be won on the cobbles, but I think the point is that it _could _be lost on the cobbles. I somehow doubt that Contador hasn't thought of this and prepared accordingly though. If all of the GC contenders stick together on the cobbles, I agree the tour will be won just as it always is - mountains and TT. You have to figure that most of the GC guys are going to want to play it safe on that stage, and if anyone attacks, they will probably be chased down the the peloton pretty fast. We won't see a repeat of P-R where there is a 50k TT at the end for the winner.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

pretender said:


> No GC contender will win or lose the 2010 TdF on these cobbled sections. It will be won, by Contador, in the way that all TdFs get won, on the time trials and a couple of decisive mountain stages.
> 
> Boring but true.



The Tour won't be won in stage 3 but I don't agree that it can't be lost there. It's an irrefutable fact, supported by more than 100 years of racing history, that 130 pounders don't do well on the stones... Especially Spanish ones.


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## boneman (Nov 26, 2001)

*Nice wheels*

Ambrosio and Dugast (or whatever they're called now). Great to enlist PVP for some pointers. One thing for sure, it can't hurt for the Tour.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

rocco said:


> Astana only sent a team for RVV but stage 3 will run on P-R roads including the Arenberg forest sector. RVV is not the same thing. It could spell big trouble for Contador. It would be treat to watch if it just so happens to rain that day.


They don't go through the Arenberg forest. Sure Astana didn't have a team at P-R, but is Radioshack's team showing there much better than a no show?


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

SilasCL said:


> They don't go through the Arenberg forest. Sure Astana didn't have a team at P-R, but is Radioshack's team showing there much better than a no show?


It's pretty clear the pace on that stage will be set by saxo bank. IOW, things will go as fast as Andy Schleck can handle. How did he do on the cobbles this year?


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

Funny how 8.5 miles of cobbles are assuming such _immense_ proportions in the context of a 3 week stage race  The cobbles are there for the spectacle but, as a serious contender, Contador is paying them the respect of doing his prep by riding them with one of the best.

I wonder if it's more productive to ride the cobbles once under race conditions, or repeatedly when you have an opportunity to really gauge them and learn their tricks from a master? Something to be said for both approaches I'd reckon but to poo poo someone's prep based on dislike of them as a rider rather misses the point, doesn't it?


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## nayr497 (Nov 8, 2008)

What cages are those? I'm guessing some Specialized carbon ones?

I'm still trying to figure out some cages that will work on my ST with larger bottles. I have little clearance but he seems to have a ton, even with his compact geo. I know his frame size is a bit bigger than mine, but still has tons of room (though I also have to estimate since he doesn't have a 2nd bottle)


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

While I agree with the headline, you don’t “give” away time in the TdF. It’s much harder to gain 5 minutes than it is to surrender it.

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/3945/Hinault-Contador-can-give-his-rivals-five-minutes-advantage-still-win-the-Tour.aspx


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

Bianchigirl said:


> Funny how 8.5 miles of cobbles are assuming such _immense_ proportions in the context of a 3 week stage race  The cobbles are there for the spectacle but, as a serious contender, Contador is paying them the respect of doing his prep by riding them with one of the best.
> 
> I wonder if it's more productive to ride the cobbles once under race conditions, or repeatedly when you have an opportunity to really gauge them and learn their tricks from a master? Something to be said for both approaches I'd reckon but to poo poo someone's prep based on dislike of them as a rider rather misses the point, doesn't it?


The final section – 4 star - is 6.5 km from the finish. It can be spectacularly consequential.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

The Moontrane said:


> The final section – 4 star - is 6.5 km from the finish. It can be spectacularly consequential.


except you cannot take much time on the 6k after the cobbles. Especially not on one of the worlds best TTer


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## bdaghisallo1 (Sep 25, 2007)

Bianchigirl said:


> Funny how 8.5 miles of cobbles are assuming such _immense_ proportions in the context of a 3 week stage race


Think back to the Passage du Gois in the '99 Tour and the damage that stretch of road did to many of the GC hopefuls.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

SilasCL said:


> They don't go through the Arenberg forest. Sure Astana didn't have a team at P-R, but is Radioshack's team showing there much better than a no show?



Thank you for the clarification about the Forest of Arenberg. The route descriptions I had read online earlier this year seemed a bit confusing about that. Apparently the stage finishes at the entrance to the Arenberg sector if I now understand correctly. However, they will still have to traverse 11 km of pave' in total including the Pave' Bernard Hinault which is by no means a tame sector.

Now, I answered The Moontrane's question as to whether Astana did Paris Roubiax and the Ronde this year but as to whether this might make a difference as to which team did or didn't, go ahead and think what you want. I'm not biting because it's pointless waste of time. We'll see on July 6.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

den bakker said:


> except you cannot take much time on the 6k after the cobbles. Especially not on one of the worlds best TTer



For the GC guys this stage isn't about winning; it's about not crashing out of the race and not loosing a chunk of time to the main competitors due to a fall or a mechanical.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

bdaghisallo1 said:


> Think back to the Passage du Gois in the '99 Tour and the damage that stretch of road did to many of the GC hopefuls.


Whole different kettle of fish - have you ever ridden the Passage du Gois? It's always slick owing to the fact that the road is only fully exposed at low tide. It's also extremely narrow dropping off to mud flat one side and water the other. Very different challenges to cobbles in open farmland.

Imagine if AC or any of the other GC hopefuls had ridden P-R and crashed - early season prep totally disrupted. Actually, I'm struggling to think which of the real GC contenders _did_ ride P-R? It's one of the things that made the Ardennes so much more interesting than the Flandrian Classics this year - seeing the heads of state testing their legs over Classic terrain.


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## bdaghisallo1 (Sep 25, 2007)

Bianchigirl said:


> Whole different kettle of fish - have you ever ridden the Passage du Gois? It's always slick owing to the fact that the road is only fully exposed at low tide. It's also extremely narrow dropping off to mud flat one side and water the other. Very different challenges to cobbles in open farmland..


I understand the difference. I was simply trying to illustrate that the race can often be lost where least expected, be it causeway or cobbles.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

rocco said:


> For the GC guys this stage isn't about winning; it's about not crashing out of the race and not loosing a chunk of time to the main competitors due to a fall or a mechanical.


This could be a good stage for a late break away - for that very reason. I doubt the sprinters trains will really want to lay on the gas till they get past the cobbles.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

rocco said:


> Thank you for the clarification about the Forest of Arenberg. The route descriptions I had read online earlier this year seemed a bit confusing about that. Apparently the stage finishes at the entrance to the Arenberg sector if I now understand correctly. However, they will still have to traverse 11 km of pave' in total including the Pave' Bernard Hinault which is by no means a tame sector.
> 
> Now, I answered The Moontrane's question as to whether Astana did Paris Roubiax and the Ronde this year but as to whether this might make a difference as to which team did or didn't, go ahead and think what you want. I'm not biting because it's pointless waste of time. We'll see on July 6.


If I remember correctly you dropped plenty of chum in the water last year and things didn't exactly work out.

I wouldn't expect anything different this year, on both accounts.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

SilasCL said:


> If I remember correctly you dropped plenty of chum in the water last year and things didn't exactly work out.
> 
> I wouldn't expect anything different this year, on both accounts.




Somebody's b!tchy today. Feel better now... need a hug?

It's just a bike race. Have you considered that you might be taking this all a bit too seriously?


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

AJL said:


> This could be a good stage for a late break away - for that very reason. I doubt the sprinters trains will really want to lay on the gas till they get past the cobbles.


I wouldn't be surprised at all if Hushovd or Boonen wins this stage either solo or out of a small break away group.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

I will be ROTFLMAO at this thread if Armstrong is the one who collarbones himself on the cobbles.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

Point taken - just pointing out that the challenges of the Passage (which, incidentally, is the opening stage of next year's race) are somewhat different to the cobbles and that the carnage that occurred there is likely to be replicated on 11kms of cobbles because of its uniqueness.

Mayo lost a shedload of time because he crashed _before_ the cobbles and was having difficulty getting back on when the front group cranked it up on those stretches. But does anyone seriously believe that AC will make the same mistake he did last year and not be glued to the right wheel going into the pave? I would imagine that wheel to be Cancellara or Boonen's rather than Armstrong's.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

Circlip said:


> I will be ROTFLMAO at this thread if Armstrong is the one who collarbones himself on the cobbles.


‘Twould be ironic; same for Wiggins. No one is guaranteed smooth sailing over them.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Contador's biggest time loss risk are these stones. Among the real contenders he's the one with the biggest chance of getting gapped. If he gets gapped and the group doesn't contain many of his rivals (and their stron TTer's for help) then he will lose big time in the wind. He missed a split on perfectly smooth roads last year and he could see that happening before his eyes. This will be different.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

davidka said:


> Contador's biggest time loss risk are these stones. Among the real contenders he's the one with the biggest chance of getting gapped. If he gets gapped and the group doesn't contain many of his rivals (and their stron TTer's for help) then he will lose big time in the wind. He missed a split on perfectly smooth roads last year and he could see that happening before his eyes. This will be different.


Of course it could be a perfectly still summer's day, you never know 

AC is a year older, a year wiser, a year stronger, with a team that is riding for him not against him - if Astana had ridden as a unified team last year you think Contador would have been hung out to dry in that split? So, yes, this will be very different - he'll have 8 ment to shield and shepherd him for a start


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## Pscyclepath (May 22, 2008)

Bianchigirl said:


> AC is a year older, a year wiser, a year stronger, with a team that is riding for him not against him - if Astana had ridden as a unified team last year you think Contador would have been hung out to dry in that split? So, yes, this will be very different - he'll have 8 ment to shield and shepherd him for a start


Mayo, for a number of reasons. lost nearly 4 minutes on the cobbled stage in '04. Even in the mountains, that can be a big chunk of time to make back... 

Astana is the Kazakh national team for all practical purposes. If Contador thinks it was a ***** riding with Armstrong on the team last year, wait until he rides with Vino on that same team ;-)


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

Vino knows he doesn't have a team, a pro tour licence or an invite to any of the big races without Contador - he'll be a good boy and stay on the leash. Besides, Contador can cover anything Vino throws at him. Plus they've ridden together before without any hardship so no reason to believe he'll have a hard time now.

Mayo crashed before the cobbles and couldn't get back on, exacerbated by the hammer going down. Contador is no Mayo - he's not as fragile mentally and physically, he can TT and he's not riding for a team of flyweight climbers like Euskaltel - in fact Astana can afford to cut back on climbing support and stick in more rouleurs because of Contador's ability to look after himself.

Of course anything can happen but for every argument that says Contador will lose shedloads of time there are plenty that says he won't - foremost possibly being that forwarned with knowledge of those 11 kms is definitely forearmed.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

davidka said:


> Among the real contenders he's the one with the biggest chance of getting gapped.


Why ?


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

*Moderators Note*

Its too early for this- the Giro hasn't even started yet. . .


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

Coolhand said:


> Its too early for this- the Giro hasn't even started yet. . .


What's the Giro? :thumbsup:


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

*Just kidding, its a brand of Helmets*



nate said:


> What's the Giro? :thumbsup:


Its that _other_ race in May.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)




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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Bianchigirl said:


> I would imagine that wheel to be Cancellara or Boonen's rather than Armstrong's.



Of course... That's where the Schlecks will be.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

nate said:


> Why ?



Weight... and the Schlecks have the same challenge but having Cancellara's wheel to follow might help... maybe.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Bianchigirl said:


> I would imagine that wheel to be Cancellara or Boonen's rather than Armstrong's.


Considering where the stage ends, it's very likely that Cancellara and Boonen will pounce before the cobbles, and they'll be nowhere in sight by the time AC gets there.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

mohair_chair said:


> Considering where the stage ends, it's very likely that Cancellara and Boonen will pounce before the cobbles, and they'll be nowhere in sight by the time AC gets there.


so Cancellara will leave junior schleck and crashing schleck behind? doubt it.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

mohair_chair said:


> Considering where the stage ends, it's very likely that Cancellara and Boonen will pounce before the cobbles, and they'll be nowhere in sight by the time AC gets there.


Cancellara will be working for the Hanson brothers. Look for Boonen or Hushovd to win the stage.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

rocco said:


> Weight... and the Schlecks have the same challenge but having Cancellara's wheel to follow might help... maybe.


What and AC won't be marking the rider he considers to be his real threat who has the advantage of the best cobble rider of the moment on his team?


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

den bakker said:


> so Cancellara will leave junior schleck and crashing schleck behind? doubt it.


Count on it. Riis will set Cancellara free to go for the win. He has another PR winner on the team to shepherd the Schlecks. Or has everyone forgotten about Stuart O'Grady?


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Bianchigirl said:


> What and AC won't be marking the rider he considers to be his real threat who has the advantage of the best cobble rider of the moment on his team?


That should be his plan, of course.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

rocco said:


> Weight...


Guess that means Levi is off the back or on the ground too when they hit the cobbles also then? Not that anyone would ever suggest that Levi is prone to crashes. Or Horner for that matter. Geez, now that I think about this Shack will be lucky to make it off the cobbles with any of their climbers intact. Is Brajkovic on their Tour squad also? OMG, the 3 of them together probably don't weigh 400 pounds combined.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Pscyclepath said:


> Mayo, for a number of reasons. lost nearly 4 minutes on the cobbled stage in '04. Even in the mountains, that can be a big chunk of time to make back...


When I think of riders to compare Contador to, Mayo isn't really near the top of my list. They are both smaller Spanish riders, and both climb well (past tense in Mayo's case) but that's the only similarities I can think of. Beyond that they are mountains apart in results and proven ability to adapt to conditions in order to rack up strong stage finishes and GC wins event after event, year after year.



Pscyclepath said:


> Astana is the Kazakh national team for all practical purposes. If Contador thinks it was a ***** riding with Armstrong on the team last year, wait until he rides with Vino on that same team ;-)


If the interpersonal between Contador and Vino relationship spins any further down the well of despair, Astana's profound lack of team unity may even cause them to stop crying on each others' shoulders  ;

http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/4553648652/


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Bianchigirl said:


> What and AC won't be marking the rider he considers to be his real threat who has the advantage of the best cobble rider of the moment on his team?


If AC has half a brain he'll follow Big George's wheel. Dude is like a sure thing whenever it comes to anything with cobbles.


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## farm (Jul 10, 2008)

Circlip said:


> If AC has half a brain he'll follow Big George's wheel. Dude is like a sure thing whenever it comes to anything with cobbles.


No. He has crashed at least twice at PR, when it mattered. Granted, one time was the broken steerer, but the other time (when he and Boonen were chasing Museeuw) he just rode into the ditch. George would also be a good bet to miss any big moves. I'd stay off his wheel.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

farm said:


> No. He has crashed at least twice at PR, when it mattered. Granted, one time was the broken steerer, but the other time (when he and Boonen were chasing Museeuw) he just rode into the ditch. George would also be a good bet to miss any big moves. I'd stay off his wheel.


Surely this must be the product of your overly active imagination. Big George is a race favorite every year at RVV and P-R. Velonews tells me, so it must be true.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Bianchigirl said:


> Of course it could be a perfectly still summer's day, you never know
> 
> AC is a year older, a year wiser, a year stronger, with a team that is riding for him not against him - if Astana had ridden as a unified team last year you think Contador would have been hung out to dry in that split? So, yes, this will be very different - he'll have 8 ment to shield and shepherd him for a start


True, it could be a nice calm day. Astana rode for Conti at last year's tour. Armstrong and Popo driving that break worked for Conti, not against. When you have multiple GC threats and one gets in a move all the other teams have to chase. It was the correct thing to do tactically but it happened because Conti missed the split.

To say Astana rode against Contador is way off. If they wanted to work against him they would have simply stopped feeding him. I think he's the Tour favorite but I'll also bet he's going to miss his team from last year, the one that could go to the front and control the Tour every single day. He will have something less than that this year.


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## shomyoface (Nov 24, 2007)

Bianchigirl said:


> Funny how 8.5 miles of cobbles are assuming such _immense_ proportions in the context of a 3 week stage race  The cobbles are there for the spectacle but, as a serious contender, Contador is paying them the respect of doing his prep by riding them with one of the best.
> 
> I wonder if it's more productive to ride the cobbles once under race conditions, or repeatedly when you have an opportunity to really gauge them and learn their tricks from a master? Something to be said for both approaches I'd reckon but to poo poo someone's prep based on dislike of them as a rider rather misses the point, doesn't it?


There are many factors other than the cobbles. Firstly, Spartacus will be in yellow and trying to defend for the first week, he will probably given free rein and he alone can split the peloton. Those smart and heavy enough will follow. If it's windy the constant direction changes and open land can lead to a split (just like last year) at any time. And lastly, rain. If it's wet, everything changes again. I think they could the funnest stages to watch. The other aspect of the cobbles is Schleck throwing away the Tour chance hers close to home. Other riders have already proven their skills her including Wiggins.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

Bianchigirl said:


> Vino knows he doesn't have a team, a pro tour licence or an invite to any of the big races without Contador - he'll be a good boy and stay on the leash. Besides, Contador can cover anything Vino throws at him. Plus they've ridden together before without any hardship so no reason to believe he'll have a hard time now.
> 
> Mayo crashed before the cobbles and couldn't get back on, exacerbated by the hammer going down. Contador is no Mayo - he's not as fragile mentally and physically, he can TT and he's not riding for a team of flyweight climbers like Euskaltel - in fact Astana can afford to cut back on climbing support and stick in more rouleurs because of Contador's ability to look after himself.
> 
> Of course anything can happen but for every argument that says Contador will lose shedloads of time there are plenty that says he won't - foremost possibly being that forwarned with knowledge of those 11 kms is definitely forearmed.


I really do hope that Vino will support Contador, but I’ll believe it after he’s subordinated his own ambitions to supporting Contador through the last mountain stage. Make it so.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

Circlip said:


> Guess that means Levi is off the back or on the ground too when they hit the cobbles also then? Not that anyone would ever suggest that Levi is prone to crashes. Or Horner for that matter. Geez, now that I think about this Shack will be lucky to make it off the cobbles with any of their climbers intact. Is Brajkovic on their Tour squad also? OMG, the 3 of them together probably don't weigh 400 pounds combined.


I raised the issue with GC riders in mind so, as well as LL has done in the Tour, he will be domestique deluxe with Armstrong at the helm.

No one is smiling in this picture:


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

The Moontrane said:


> I raised the issue with GC riders in mind so, as well as LL has done in the Tour, he will be domestique deluxe with Armstrong at the helm.


But how are LL and Horner going to be domestiques to LA when they're out of the Tour after crashing out on the cobbles, given that they are both prone to crashing AND are also flyweights? That leaves LA with none of his lieutentants for support in the mountains. Shack is going to be totally screwed over by the cobbles.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

Circlip said:


> But how are LL and Horner going to be domestiques to LA when they're out of the Tour after crashing out on the cobbles, given that they are both prone to crashing AND are also flyweights? That leaves LA with none of his lieutentants for support in the mountains. Shack is going to be totally screwed over by the cobbles.


In your opinion, who _won’t _ crash on the cobbles?

Contador gets my opprobrium because I expect him to win - that it should be decided in the Mts and TTs as has been stated - but he passed on the opportunity to get some ludicrous speed race preparation for the cobbles.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Circlip said:


> Guess that means Levi is off the back or on the ground too when they hit the cobbles also then? Not that anyone would ever suggest that Levi is prone to crashes. Or Horner for that matter. Geez, now that I think about this Shack will be lucky to make it off the cobbles with any of their climbers intact. Is Brajkovic on their Tour squad also? OMG, the 3 of them together probably don't weigh 400 pounds combined.



They may have problems too. A team leader could have Cancellara, Boonen, Flecha, Hincapie and Hoste on his team leading the way but they can't put him on their shoulders and carry him over the stones.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Circlip said:


> But how are LL and Horner going to be domestiques to LA when they're out of the Tour after crashing out on the cobbles, given that they are both prone to crashing AND are also flyweights? That leaves LA with none of his lieutentants for support in the mountains. Shack is going to be totally screwed over by the cobbles.



How much would a whole team of 160 to 180 pound domestiques help a team leader in the mountains?


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

rocco said:


> How much would a whole team of 160 to 180 pound domestiques help a team leader in the mountains?





rocco said:


> They may have problems too. A team leader could have Cancellara, Boonen, Flecha, Hincapie and Hoste on his team leading the way but they can't put him on their shoulders and carry him over the stones.


But OMG OMG OMG it's cobbles!!! What don't you understand about the apocalyptic potential of those veritable Stones of Gory Death masquerading as innocent little pavers?


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

The Moontrane said:


> In your opinion, who _won’t _ crash on the cobbles?
> 
> Contador gets my opprobrium because I expect him to win - that it should be decided in the Mts and TTs as has been stated - but he passed on the opportunity to get some ludicrous speed race preparation for the cobbles.


And I repeat, why would AC risk his whole TdF preparation riding a potentially dangerous race for _11 kilometres of cobbles_. He is doing what he needs to do in a controlled, intelligent way - besides, no amount of preparation, under race conditions or not, can replicate what will actually happen on the day.

Since the previous 2 stages cover roads used in F-W and L-B-L, do I take it we'll be giving due credit to AC for his 'ludicrous speed race preparation' and casting our opprobium on GC riders like, um, a certain Texan for not racing the Ardennes Classics as he had originally planned to do? :wink:


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## shomyoface (Nov 24, 2007)

One factor that may be influential is whether Saxo Bank have a sponsor for 2011. If not, Cancellara will be told to keep the yellow jersey and win the stage, leaving the Scheck's bouncing their 120 girlie bodies over the cobbles with AC. A decisive move by the Spring Classic's favorites over the final cobble section (and wind and rain) may set up the best bike handler for the yellow on the first mountain stage. I think these few days in the Western Europe flatlands is gonna be fun.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

shomyoface said:


> One factor that may be influential is whether Saxo Bank have a sponsor for 2011. If not, Cancellara will be told to keep the yellow jersey and win the stage, leaving the Scheck's bouncing their 120 girlie bodies over the cobbles with AC. A decisive move by the Spring Classic's favorites over the final cobble section (and wind and rain) may set up the best bike handler for the yellow on the first mountain stage. I think these few days in the Western Europe flatlands is gonna be fun.


Schleck (both of them) are just shy of 150lbs. If the team does not have a sponsor before the Tour they are in long term big trouble, as admitted by themselves.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

den bakker said:


> Schleck (both of them) are just shy of 150lbs. If the team does not have a sponsor before the Tour they are in long term big trouble, as admitted by themselves.



Looks like Andy Schleck is listed at 140lbs and Frank at 130.


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## SlowMo (Apr 18, 2006)

*Why does AC have to ride the cobbles?*

I think that it's a given that AC is going to win the tour, so i think it would serve all his fans well to simply allow him to ride in the SAG wagon until the cobbles are over. In all actuality, maybe they should let him start racing in the mountains since it's evident "that's where the race will be won"?

Some of you crack me up - I'm rooting for every rider on the course that's not wearing an Astana uniform at this point.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*there will be an unholy alliance*

between Saxo, RS, BMC and maybe another squad to try to eliminate Contador
I'm sure the Schlecks like their chances against LA better then pistolero
Astana and Alberto better be paying serious attention


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

atpjunkie said:


> between Saxo, RS, BMC and maybe another squad to try to eliminate Contador
> I'm sure the Schlecks like their chances against LA better then pistolero
> Astana and Alberto better be paying serious attention



Don't forget Sky... will they bring Flecha?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*good addition*



rocco said:


> Don't forget Sky... will they Flecha?


I'm thinking squads with GC hopefuls that also have cobble experience and muscle


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

I don't know who Sky intends to bring in support of Wiggins but they have guys that get along very well on the Pave.


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

SlowMo said:


> Some of you crack me up - I'm rooting for every rider on the course that's not wearing an Astana uniform at this point.


Now why is it I imagine you were rooting for everyone _wearing_ an Astana jersey last year? :wink:


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## Bianchigirl (Sep 17, 2004)

Well, we know Riis is happy to accept a brown envelope from Bruyneel so a Saxo/RS alliance is not out of the question :wink:

I'm sure Flecha would love a win on the cobbles - all 11 kms of them - but I'm not sure whether Wiggins will condone taking a rider to potentially win one stage :wink:

Interesting to actually trace the route and rate the cobbles perhaps? http://www.letour.fr/2010/TDF/COURSE/us/300/etape_par_etape.html


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

I think Flecha would be a good worker on anything but the high mountains, he's ridden the tour several times I believe (I know he has a stage win). I bet he gets a start.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

atpjunkie said:


> between Saxo, RS, BMC and maybe another squad to try to eliminate Contador
> I'm sure the Schlecks like their chances against LA better then pistolero
> Astana and Alberto better be paying serious attention


It's going to be a mess because of the DSs will be screaming at the GC guys to ride up front to avoid as many crashes as possible. On the other hand, appointed stagiaires will be drilling it for marque win as far as TdF stages go.


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## nayr497 (Nov 8, 2008)

In the photo on page 1...anyone know what bottle cages are on Contador's bike? I'm guessing some Specialized carbon cages?

Thanks! (I asked on pg. 1 but haven't seen a response and still curious)


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

nayr497 said:


> In the photo on page 1...anyone know what bottle cages are on Contador's bike? I'm guessing some Specialized carbon cages?
> 
> Thanks! (I asked on pg. 1 but haven't seen a response and still curious)


Post it to the Bottlecage forum.


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## yo mamma (Aug 10, 2009)

Has anyone posting in this thread ridden the cobbles of northern France? I have (a little) and while I'm no expert and don't have years of experience on the cobbles I can tell you there is a very good reason why no GC contender aside from Merckx or Hinault has ever won P-R. It is freakishly hard to go fast on the cobbles at any weight, and it is decidedly easier for a more powerful rider to do so than a light weight. Bike handling will count for a lot, but it won't be the be all, end all of the stage. In my limited experience in riding the cobbles one thing I noticed is how hard it is to accelerate on them or to change lines once you're committed. What this means is that it only takes one bone head to lose his concentration for a second or so and you find yourself behind an unclosable gap. Given his greater experience on these sorts of roads and his experience at mtb racing, I'll go out on a limb and say that unless he has some sort of mechanical or flat or gets caught behind some other guy's crash, LA will put 3 to 5 minutes, maybe more, into AC on the cobbled stage. Whether that will be enough to win the Tour is doubtful, but it should make things very interesting.


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## PhatTalc (Jul 21, 2004)

yo mamma said:


> Has anyone posting in this thread ridden the cobbles of northern France? I have (a little) and while I'm no expert and don't have years of experience on the cobbles I can tell you there is a very good reason why no GC contender aside from Merckx or Hinault has ever won P-R. It is freakishly hard to go fast on the cobbles at any weight, and it is decidedly easier for a more powerful rider to do so than a light weight. Bike handling will count for a lot, but it won't be the be all, end all of the stage. In my limited experience in riding the cobbles one thing I noticed is how hard it is to accelerate on them or to change lines once you're committed. What this means is that it only takes one bone head to lose his concentration for a second or so and you find yourself behind an unclosable gap. Given his greater experience on these sorts of roads and his experience at mtb racing, I'll go out on a limb and say that unless he has some sort of mechanical or flat or gets caught behind some other guy's crash, LA will put 3 to 5 minutes, maybe more, into AC on the cobbled stage. Whether that will be enough to win the Tour is doubtful, but it should make things very interesting.


Have you checked out some of the lightweight riders who finished in the main bunch on the infamous stage that Mayo lost time on in 2004? Leipheimer didn't lose time, nor did Roberto Heras. Carlos Sastre and Michal Rasmusen somehow ended up in the main bunch with Armstrong and Ulrich. However, accidents can happen. For example, Thor Hushovd ending up with Mayo's group. 
Contador might lose 5 minutes on the cobbles, but he might gain 5 minutes if he gets lucky and Schleck or Armstrong end up slipping up. So if Rasmusen can stay with the leaders over 3.5km of cobbles, can Contador do it over 11km? Probably.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

yo mamma said:


> Has anyone posting in this thread ridden the cobbles of northern France? I have (a little) and while I'm no expert and don't have years of experience on the cobbles I can tell you there is a very good reason why no GC contender aside from Merckx or Hinault has ever won P-R. It is freakishly hard to go fast on the cobbles at any weight, and it is decidedly easier for a more powerful rider to do so than a light weight. Bike handling will count for a lot, but it won't be the be all, end all of the stage. In my limited experience in riding the cobbles one thing I noticed is how hard it is to accelerate on them or to change lines once you're committed. What this means is that it only takes one bone head to lose his concentration for a second or so and you find yourself behind an unclosable gap. Given his greater experience on these sorts of roads and his experience at mtb racing, I'll go out on a limb and say that unless he has some sort of mechanical or flat or gets caught behind some other guy's crash, LA will put 3 to 5 minutes, maybe more, into AC on the cobbled stage. Whether that will be enough to win the Tour is doubtful, but it should make things very interesting.


Contador is a more powerful rider than Armstrong. Look at the TT results from last year.


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## Jokull (Aug 13, 2007)

yo mamma said:


> Has anyone posting in this thread ridden the cobbles of northern France? I have (a little) and while I'm no expert and don't have years of experience on the cobbles I can tell you there is a very good reason why no GC contender aside from Merckx or Hinault has ever won P-R. It is freakishly hard to go fast on the cobbles at any weight, and it is decidedly easier for a more powerful rider to do so than a light weight. Bike handling will count for a lot, but it won't be the be all, end all of the stage. In my limited experience in riding the cobbles one thing I noticed is how hard it is to accelerate on them or to change lines once you're committed. What this means is that it only takes one bone head to lose his concentration for a second or so and you find yourself behind an unclosable gap. Given his greater experience on these sorts of roads and his experience at mtb racing, I'll go out on a limb and say that unless he has some sort of mechanical or flat or gets caught behind some other guy's crash, LA will put 3 to 5 minutes, maybe more, into AC on the cobbled stage. Whether that will be enough to win the Tour is doubtful, but it should make things very interesting.


Armstrong doesn't really have "greater experience" on the cobbles though does he? At least not when you compare him to the other GC riders as a whole. It isn't as if he has ever ridden Paris-Roubaix, and the Tour of Flanders cobbles, or even the ones used in the TdF in 2004 are hardly comparable. Given that Contador is one of the most powerful time-triallers in the sport at the moment, I think it is premature to write off his chances yet. 

Using your logic, Wiggins should be the super-favourite now: he rode Paris-Roubaix and finished 25th in 2009 - that really is greater experience than the other GC favourites.


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## yo mamma (Aug 10, 2009)

Jokull said:


> Armstrong doesn't really have "greater experience" on the cobbles though does he? At least not when you compare him to the other GC riders as a whole. It isn't as if he has ever ridden Paris-Roubaix, and the Tour of Flanders cobbles, or even the ones used in the TdF in 2004 are hardly comparable. Given that Contador is one of the most powerful time-triallers in the sport at the moment, I think it is premature to write off his chances yet.
> 
> Using your logic, Wiggins should be the super-favourite now: he rode Paris-Roubaix and finished 25th in 2009 - that really is greater experience than the other GC favourites.


You're absolutely right, the Flanders cobbles are nothing like the rougher sectors of the Roubaix cobbles, at least not as bad as Arenberg (which won't be used during the Tour stage) and the Carrefour sector (which I don't if it is or is not being included in the Tour stage). Some of the Flanders cobbles are pretty nasty in their own right, but they're compounded by the slope of the hills they're on. Anyway, Roubaix cobbles are worse, like you say.

I'm not limiting my assessment purely on experience on the cobbles, but more so on suitability for the cobbles. I'm not saying that LA is 'suited' for them in so much as AC definitely is not suited for them, and I think RadioShack will do a better job of driving the pace into and through the cobbled sections than Astana can counter. Especially if there are crosswinds, there could be huge splits resulting from the gaps that are sure to occur due to the cobbled sectors. Just my opinion.


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## CabDoctor (Jun 11, 2005)

Yeah everyone is going to drive it on the cobbles. As ugly as it is to say, RS, sky, saxo etc couldn't ask for anything better than for Conti to crash out of the tour on the cobbles. So they're just going to freight train it as hard as they can. Keep the speed boarding on uncontrollable, and see what the result is. Even if he doesn't crash, he may have to back off so much that he lose time on this stage. 


Or he may just be able to keep up......


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## yo mamma (Aug 10, 2009)

SilasCL said:


> Contador is a more powerful rider than Armstrong. Look at the TT results from last year.


Please tell us you don't really think that being able to TT fast is purely a function of power.


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## olli (Jan 30, 2009)

conta getting his bike ready

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFY-J9FVo9s


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## PhatTalc (Jul 21, 2004)

yo mamma said:


> Please tell us you don't really think that being able to TT fast is purely a function of power.


Did he say it was purely a function of power?

You told us that Armstrong will take 3-5 minutes out of Contador because of his power. Do you really believe that? If you do, how do you explain how Michael Rasmussen was able to stay with Armstrong the last time the tour did cobbles.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

yo mamma said:


> You're absolutely right, the Flanders cobbles are nothing like the rougher sectors of the Roubaix cobbles, at least not as bad as Arenberg (which won't be used during the Tour stage) and the Carrefour sector (which I don't if it is or is not being included in the Tour stage). Some of the Flanders cobbles are pretty nasty in their own right, but they're compounded by the slope of the hills they're on. Anyway, Roubaix cobbles are worse, like you say.
> 
> I'm not limiting my assessment purely on experience on the cobbles, but more so on suitability for the cobbles. I'm not saying that LA is 'suited' for them in so much as AC definitely is not suited for them, and I think RadioShack will do a better job of driving the pace into and through the cobbled sections than Astana can counter. Especially if there are crosswinds, there could be huge splits resulting from the gaps that are sure to occur due to the cobbled sectors. Just my opinion.


who is it on radioshack that is going to drive the pace on the cobbles?


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

yo mamma said:


> Please tell us you don't really think that being able to TT fast is purely a function of power.


They are more or less the same height, so I would guess their drag is similar. Weight matters a bit, but Contador put plenty of time in on the flat sections of the TT too.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

olli said:


> conta getting his bike ready
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFY-J9FVo9s


Thanks - cool video


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

SilasCL said:


> If I remember correctly you dropped plenty of chum in the water last year and things didn't exactly work out.
> 
> I wouldn't expect anything different this year, on both accounts.





Here's some chum. 

This or worse could be Contador's fate in stage 3.


//Nose-antlers to you.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Bwahahahaha!

That is all.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

yo mamma said:


> Has anyone posting in this thread ridden the cobbles of northern France? I have (a little) and while I'm no expert and don't have years of experience on the cobbles I can tell you there is a very good reason why no GC contender aside from Merckx or Hinault has ever won P-R. It is freakishly hard to go fast on the cobbles at any weight, and it is decidedly easier for a more powerful rider to do so than a light weight. Bike handling will count for a lot, but it won't be the be all, end all of the stage. In my limited experience in riding the cobbles one thing I noticed is how hard it is to accelerate on them or to change lines once you're committed. What this means is that it only takes one bone head to lose his concentration for a second or so and you find yourself behind an unclosable gap. Given his greater experience on these sorts of roads and his experience at mtb racing, I'll go out on a limb and say that unless he has some sort of mechanical or flat or gets caught behind some other guy's crash, LA will put 3 to 5 minutes, maybe more, into AC on the cobbled stage. Whether that will be enough to win the Tour is doubtful, but it should make things very interesting.


Oops, should read "LA will ride in the gutter, flat and lose time to most of his rivals after having to catch back on with a huge solo effort burning many matches while doing it".


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

mohair_chair said:


> Don't know, but Armstrong has shown that he is a great bike handler, he races MTB, and in 2004 he had two great cobble riders in Hincapie and Ekimov to marshal him through the pave. Can you say the same about Contador?


After today, yes, Contador is the better rider of the two on the cobbles.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

Maximus_XXIV said:


> Oops, should read "LA will ride in the gutter, flat and lose time to most of his rivals after having to catch back on with a huge solo effort burning many matches while doing it".


Winning the Tour is about burning the fewest matches, and LA burned some on stage 3.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

Contador's bike handling skills were great today.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

moabbiker said:


> After today, yes, Contador is the better rider of the two on the cobbles.


it's interesting how before today's stage the folks who were mentioned as losing potentially huge amounts of time listed:
Contador, Andy Schleck, Bradley Wiggins, as well as crash-prone Menchov. And Armstrong was supposed to gain time on all of these guys. Instead precisely the opposite happened.


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## Jokull (Aug 13, 2007)

Ha! I'm glad this thread has been resurrected. Tell me again about how much more suited to the cobbles Armstrong is compared to Contador and all the other GC candidates...


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Jokull said:


> Ha! I'm glad this thread has been resurrected. Tell me again about how much more suited to the cobbles Armstrong is compared to Contador and all the other GC candidates...



Well flatting just when Conti join the group LA was in didn't help - otherwise he could have just marked wheels. But, that's life on the pave.


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## muscleendurance (Jan 11, 2009)

yep he came out of it smelling of teflon!
kind of a shame for the race, would have been good to see him lose 1 or 2 min
today maybe, would have made for an interesting race, still should be, but not quite the edge of seat kind of interesting. Sad to see armstrong down 1 minute already, his tour might be over already for the win, if bert had of lost 1min+ to armstrong it might have gone anyway. Now it will be a tall order...on top of an already tall order for armstrong  but you just never know with him.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Jokull said:


> Ha! I'm glad this thread has been resurrected. Tell me again about how much more suited to the cobbles Armstrong is compared to Contador and all the other GC candidates...


Not to sound like LA lover, but he actually did handle cobbles very well (arguably as well if not better than Contador), his wheel didn't. The way he rode back into the 3rd group (a lot of it solo) was quite impressive.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*close*



boneman said:


> Ambrosio and Dugast (or whatever they're called now). Great to enlist PVP for some pointers. One thing for sure, it can't hurt for the Tour.


Ambrosio Nemesis and FMB Paris Roubaix tyres.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*I couldn't tell*

but did Conti ride 32 3x today ???
I noticed both Lance and George on CF wheels early and Alu fronts later

yup
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/97th-tour-de-france-gt/stage-3/photos/129310

and rode the crown. took some classes from Peter Van Petegem


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

Respect for tradition. He was able to finish on 31 spokes. Wait, now who was supposed to be the wily vet?


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

atpjunkie said:


> but did Conti ride 32 3x today ???
> I noticed both Lance and George on CF wheels early and Alu fronts later
> 
> yup
> ...


I was surprised to see LA ridding the gutter so much - I heard it was pretty sharp at the edge. George did a good job of placing Evans b/4 he flatted - good tactics. LA need Rast in front of him, not Paulinho (or was it Popo?).


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## ronderman (May 17, 2010)

Is it just possible that some of us can sit back, but aside our opinions and admit Conti, Vino had a good ride over the cobbles and Andy and Cadel had the best ride. Everyone else lost time. When you can't keep up on the mountains you fall back or get dropped. On the cobbles you crash or pick crap lines and get flats and the like. Losing time in the tour is never, ever good. Losing almost a minute is pretty damn bad - to spin it any other way seems a bit self-serving.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

Lolol!


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*when everytime they flat*



pretender said:


> Respect for tradition. He was able to finish on 31 spokes. Wait, now who was supposed to be the wily vet?


they go back to the 'ole standard' why not just start the race that way?

Conti went and studied with PvP, he rode regular wheels and stayed mostly on the crown
snapped a spoke and still got home okay

score one for the kid


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