# Will Cadel win the Giro?



## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

He looks like his form is taking shape, but the competition should be strong in this year's Giro (Quintana, etc.). What's your guess?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

He can. There are plenty of people around ready to talk his prospects down but I think a podium is a good bet. He looks better than he has looked for the past couple of years and BMC seems to have turned over a new leaf. Cadel is tough. People shouldn't write him off.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

No. 

[RBR says message too short: but stranger things have happened. Like Hesjedal's Giro win or Horner's Vuelta]


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## looigi (Nov 24, 2010)

Cadel strikes me as being a funny (perhaps moody) guy. If he gets the right signals and things go his way, he can be great, but a little bit of adversity can derail him, I think.

Speaking of Horner, is he going to make the Giro after getting hit by that car a couple of weeks ago?


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## Guod (Jun 9, 2011)

No. I don't think he has another grand tour win in him. I do think that he could definitely post a top 10 or possibly podium, but it'd probably take some mistakes by the current leader and him capitalizing to win it.

I don't like saying Cadel probably won't win BTW, it'd be awesome if he did, just unlikely.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I will be cheering for Cadel as my sentimental favorite for sure but.... I remember noticing Quintana a couple of years ago and thinking "this kid is going to win Grand Tours one day." I think this Giro will be his first one. 
1.Quintana
2.JRod
3.Evans

I think looigi is correct. Cadel was one of (if not the) most physically gifted riders of his generation. His emotions often got the best of him though and could cause exponential breakdowns in big races. Firing on all cylinders and in good form = almost unbeatable. He is on form right now and as much as I hate to admit it, the question is over whether or not his 37 year old legs can hold form for 3 weeks. In 2010-2011, he was the best rider in the world. He could out-kick Gilbert, JRod, Contador, and the like in the Ardennes and the only reason he didn't beat Tony Martin in the 2011 TDF time trial was because his DS told him over the radio to slow down in the last few k's because he had the TDF in the bag and should just make sure he didn't crash. 

And there was this stage: Giro d'Italia 2010 - Poggio Civitella - YouTube


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

I actually kind of think he can (though I may just be losing it myself at this point). He looked really good in the TDU and he won his last race. Firing on all cylinders for three weeks is a tough task, but I kind of feel like their team is the best it has been in a long time (maybe ever) right now. BMC misfired again in the Northern Cobbled Classics, but they have looked really good all things considered. Cadel is definitely a tough dude and has already proved he has all the requisite skills to win a GT on the biggest of stages and, with Porte out, I think his chances are good. Quintana, Uran, Rodriguez, Moreno will be bringing their "A" games and make it a fight, but Cadel should be right there in the mix IMO.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

I'll be putting Evans at the head of my Fantasy Giro roster, along with Quintana.


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

he definitely has the "nous" (see what i did there? that's a pro cycling word, folks), and he seems to be on form, so yes, he certainly can. i'd take a wager on him at this point, although quintana is the definite favorite.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

He's certainly at the top of his game right now, so the big question is whether he can sustain a three-week effort. And of course whether he will have the luck required to win a GT.

I disagree with those remarking on the way moods and temperament affect his riding. Certainly there was time when he seemed brittle, not to mention his famous wheel-sucking phase. IMHO he put those limitations behind him when he won the TdF and Worlds. He became one of the most determined riders in the peloton, unfazed by tough competition and willing to make the race when he thought he had to.

I wish him luck.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

It would be great if he won. Quintana is his only threat since Nibali is going to the Tour.

Evans should have focussed on the Tour or Giro last year. Doing both is no good.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

JSR said:


> I disagree with those remarking on the way moods and temperament affect his riding. Certainly there was time when he seemed brittle, not to mention his famous wheel-sucking phase. IMHO he put those limitations behind him when he won the TdF and Worlds. He became one of the most determined riders in the peloton, unfazed by tough competition and willing to make the race when he thought he had to.



I can accept this. He is definitely tough as hell. I hope these past couple of years were a fluke.


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## Rokh On (Oct 30, 2011)

looigi said:


> Speaking of Horner, is he going to make the Giro after getting hit by that car a couple of weeks ago?


Nope. He is now concentrating on the TdF and the Vuelta.


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## dot (Mar 4, 2004)

No. Points jersey possible like he did once.

Who did he beat? Pozzivivo? What a win! 
Seriously, he's been dropped by serious guys in all races this year.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Horner admits to be a hot weather rider, he wouldn't be a good Giro contender. Evans, well, I can't stand the man, so I'm sending him lots of bad vibes hoping that works (even though I do admit he is riding really well this year). My money would be on Quintana. He is a fantastic climber and he now has good experience at grand tours. My heart is with Garmin hoping Martin will podium, but not sure if he could beat Quintana on the climbs.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

55x11 said:


> [RBR says message too short: but stranger things have happened. Like Hesjedal's Giro win or Horner's Vuelta]


Hey now,they are great riders and both deserved the wins.


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## sir duke (Mar 24, 2006)

love4himies said:


> Horner admits to be a hot weather rider, he wouldn't be a good Giro contender. Evans, well, I can't stand the man, so I'm sending him lots of bad vibes hoping that works (even though I do admit he is riding really well this year). My money would be on Quintana. He is a fantastic climber and he now has good experience at grand tours. My heart is with Garmin hoping Martin will podium, but not sure if he could beat Quintana on the climbs.


Why the dislike for Cadel, did he step on your cat or something?


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

sir duke said:


> Why the dislike for Cadel, did he step on your cat or something?


No his damn security guard practically pushed me out of the way as he was riding from signing in at the Montreal Grand Prix. Every other rider was friendly (Froome, Sagan, Ryder, Danielson) and would respond when spoken to by the fans, and he just snarled and wouldn't respond to any fan saying hello to him. Almost like he was holier than thou. And yes, he probably would step on my cat just to be a bully.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Cadel certainly looks like he did what he had to do to be a Giro contender. I haven't checked the route in details so I'm not sure if it favors him or if it favors guys like Purito or Quintana. He can probably win if all goes well but I'd say he's probably more in line for a podium, especially if Quintana is at his peak (he's been quiet lately so who knows?). Purito is also probably good for a podium and can usually gain seconds here and there by sprinting away from diesels like Cadel on steep uphill finishes. He did crash a few times in the Ardennes so he was not his usual self there but I hope he'll be on top form for the Giro, he makes racing fun to watch.

Who else are in it to win anyway?

Basso 'might' hit the top 5? Maybe?

Scarponi is not looking too good after he got busted for being 'helped' by Dr. Ferrari (didn't learn his lesson after getting busted with Fuentes ).

Dan Martin is looking in shape but, can he be good for a whole 3 weeks?

Uran? He's not shown much this year yet... Not sure I see him winning a Grand Tour.

Is Betancur doing the Giro? Did he lose his winter fat?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Dan Gerous said:


> Purito is also probably good for a podium and can usually gain seconds here and there by sprinting away from diesels like Cadel on steep uphill finishes.


We will see where Cadel is this year but at his best, he has just as much kick as guys like Purito, Valverde, and Gilbert on steep uphill finishes and has beaten them in the Ardennes (and similar stages in stage races) in the past. One of his strengths in stage races has been in being one of the best sprinters among the GC crowd and picking up bonus seconds here and there in the manner you described.

Fleche Wallonne 2010: Final kilometer - Mur de Huy - YouTube

Tour De France 2011 - Stage 4 - Last 5km - YouTube

And this one starting at about 20:36 - Cadel Evans best moments - YouTube



I think he could have won Liege this year too.... (based on Pozzovivo's form).


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

good analysis. There is always a new guy, or old guy that many people discount.
I think Basso is done, Scarponi probably too.
Favorite is Quintana, and Purito has finished second in so many races and grand tours, it's hard to bet against him finishing second again. Uran will be

Nothing against Cadel - I will be rooting for him to some extent, but the history is against him winning. Nothing to do with his moodiness or mindset, it's just his aging 37-year old body (then again, see Horner) and the deep field with many solid contenders.

As to why *some* people find Cadel annoying - I can see that. Whiny high-pitch voice. Delusions of grandeur (who has a giant portrait of themselves above their fireplace?).
He doesn't seem to be terribly liked by his teammates. Which probably cost him one or two grand tours (remember the wheel change disaster in Vuelta with a teammate up the road who wouldn't stop for him?). There must be something there.


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## TehYoyo (Sep 16, 2012)

No. Cadel's past his prime and he's not coming back, imo. He's been touted as a GC contender for the past 2 or 3 years, but imo he hasn't been in contention since TvG started riding circles around him in the Tour.

Just look - he's volunteered to Lieutenant for TvG this Tour, very classy of him.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

55x11 said:


> As to why *some* people find Cadel annoying - I can see that. Whiny high-pitch voice. Delusions of grandeur (who has a giant portrait of themselves above their fireplace?).
> He doesn't seem to be terribly liked by his teammates. Which probably cost him one or two grand tours (remember the wheel change disaster in Vuelta with a teammate up the road who wouldn't stop for him?). There must be something there.


Have you heard anything of trouble with his teammates since he left Lotto? I know he had trouble there but I haven't heard anything since he transferred to BMC. At least publicly, it appeared like he brushed up his social skills around that time. 

For years, I have heard people denounce him for his high pitched voice and very clefted chin..... I never really understood those things as reasons to dislike someone so much. 

I am not 100% sure about Scarponi but I do think that Basso is done. We could always be wrong but he hasn't looked good for a long time. .


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

No. He'll have one bad day and an insanely frustrating mechanical.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

spade2you said:


> No. He'll have one bad day and an insanely frustrating mechanical.


Not unbelievable...... Here is a possible scenario: 

Cadel will be looking really good for the whole race and going into stage 19, he is in the points jersey and sitting 2nd overall, less than one minute off of Quintana (Quintana in pink) and 15 seconds ahead of Purito. Based on a strong ITT earlier in the race people are predicting that he will take the Maglia Rosa on that stage. Then, he rides an unexplainable and unjustifiably bad ITT and loses over two minutes to Quintana and Purito, falling to 3rd overall. On Zoncolan though, he is looking really strong again and looks poised to keep his podium position. He and Quintana start to ride away from Purito halfway up the climb though and it starts to look like he might be able to get his 2nd place on the podium back. He is leading up the climb, marked by Quintana when, 3k from the finish, his rear derailleur inexplicably falls off. He is seven minutes ahead of his nearest teammate and neutral service is not to be found. He jerry-rigs his bike and for some reason has to ride the rest of the climb in the big ring. He impressively limits his losses in his laborious chase but loses over five minutes and finishes the Giro 6th overall.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> For years, I have heard people denounce him for his high pitched voice and very clefted chin..... I never really understood those things as reasons to dislike someone so much.


I'm with you on that one... It's not that much different than not liking someone because he's black or jewish...


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Dan Gerous said:


> I'm with you on that one... It's not that much different than not liking someone because he's black or jewish...


Actually its a lot different. Think about what you are saying and how simple minded it can seem to a reader. How many centuries of pogroms have there been against cleftd chinned people? How many centuries of chattel slavery and subjugation? Race and ethnicity were the galvanizing factors and pretexts for this hate and violence. Not less than ideal facial features or tonality.


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

Well if he does it'll make me feel a little better about the SLR01 I'm about to purchase


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## dot (Mar 4, 2004)

I like him since he's a former MTBer and I'm kinda former MTBer too . But if he wins that'd be a miracle. I think he's getting further and further over the hill or probably he just lacks looks of a true GT winner. 

By the way, Nino Shurter is racing Tours of Romandie and Schweiz!


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

I wish him well - It'll be a haul though up against the like of Uran and Quintana.

At present, I'm thinking:

1) Quintana
2) Uran
3) J-Rod
4) Majka
5) Evans

But a lot can happen out on the road - you can't count Evans out of a podium yet.


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## dot (Mar 4, 2004)

points jersey and a stage would be cool too.


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## sir duke (Mar 24, 2006)

love4himies said:


> No his damn security guard practically pushed me out of the way as he was riding from signing in at the Montreal Grand Prix. Every other rider was friendly (Froome, Sagan, Ryder, Danielson) and would respond when spoken to by the fans, and he just snarled and wouldn't respond to any fan saying hello to him. Almost like he was holier than thou. And yes, he probably would step on my cat just to be a bully.


Then go hate on his security guard. 'Practically'? Well, he did or he didn't. Which is it? OK so Cuddles didn't want to play ball just because the fans were there. You ever have days like that? Some people don't like playing the PR game. Take it or leave it. Maybe he hates people who like cats. Life can be unfair sometimes.


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## the_rouleur (May 3, 2014)

I think Rodriguez will win. Cadel certainly has a chance and starting third favourite will suit him better than going in as outright favourite. When there is less pressure on him it seems to suit him more.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

sir duke said:


> Then go hate on his security guard. 'Practically'? Well, he did or he didn't. Which is it? OK so Cuddles didn't want to play ball just because the fans were there. You ever have days like that? Some people don't like playing the PR game. Take it or leave it. Maybe he hates people who like cats. Life can be unfair sometimes.


Nooooo, not going to hate his security. He's only doing his job. Probably afraid of the wrath of Cadel. He was a rude $hithead, plain and simple. He even muttered under his breath for people to get out of his way. I didn't understand him, but hubby is bilingual and did.

Not sure why the cat thing was brought up in your posts???? Are you butthurt I don't like the man? Or trying to bait me for some unknown reason?


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## sir duke (Mar 24, 2006)

love4himies said:


> Nooooo, not going to hate his security. He's only doing his job. Probably afraid of the wrath of Cadel. He was a rude shithead, plain and simple. He even muttered under his breath for people to get out of his way. I didn't understand him, but hubby is bilingual and did.
> 
> *Not sure why the cat thing was brought up in your posts???? Are you butthurt I don't like the man? Or trying to bait me for some unknown reason*?


No and no. But I wonder if you had considered a viewpoint other than that of the fan. Your initial rant about not liking him seemed somewhat childish and self-centred, the kind of thing the scorned fan sometimes resorts to. You can choose to like him or not, he can choose to smile or not. I'm guessing he can live with not being everyone's fave. The cat thing? Just my British SOH..


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

the_rouleur said:


> I think Rodriguez will win


Too much time trialing this year. Remember he lost it in the time trial on the last day. Ouch. But he will win a stage for sure. I don't know how good his team is in TTT's.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Well, Cadel certainly looked like a contender today!


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

JSR said:


> Well, Cadel certainly looked like a contender today!


The folks at cycling news agree with you:

Evans Shows His Strength On Giro D'Italia Stage 5 | Cyclingnews.com


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## RaptorTC (Jul 20, 2012)

Today definitely helped his cause.


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## Old Man (Apr 8, 2012)

RaptorTC said:


> Today definitely helped his cause.



You mean the horde of unfortunate pavement fodder helped his cause.. Humpffff….


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Hmmmmmm, we might want to re-consider!


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## dot (Mar 4, 2004)

LostViking said:


> Hmmmmmm, we might want to re-consider!


Yep. I didn't think he's able to win but at the moment he is the smartest and I wish him The Luck.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

I just want to point out that this guy is not all bad (though I am sure he can act a fool as much as any of as on any given day):

Photo Essay: The 2014 Giro d'Italia enters the Alps - VeloNews.com


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## cale262 (Apr 28, 2010)

At the beginning of the race I would've said "No", I was really hoping for J-Rod to take this one...that certainly isn't going to happen now. Today I still don't think Evans is going to take it and believe he would've had a better chance at a second TDF tittle. Lots of riding to come though, let's see how it plays out


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

I think Cadel rode great for ten days. Maybe he needs to consider shorter races to target. He just seems to lose it when the mountains pitch up sharply. Quintana and Uran have the zip in the pedals to tackle the steep stuff. With the addition of the uphill ITT, this race almost seems like it was built for Quintana to win.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Disappointed by his Giro, Cadel Evans ponders his future - VeloNews.com



> “Of course, I am not satisfied with the result,” Evans said. “Maybe in time I will be able to appreciate the effort we made and how we rode as a team — we rode very, very well. We rode far beyond what I had hoped for and the results in the first 10 days were indicative of that.


I think at 37, he did a phenomenal job at the Giro. You can be smart all you want, but you need the stamina to get up those mountains and the young climbers have that.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

He did well (37? let's not forget Horner won Vuelta at 41 just last year!). 
Evans did surprise me. He did use his smarts and his team and a bit of luck to get into pink and hold it for a while. But he was also losing time on every mountain stage. EVERY mountain stage. And quite a bit too. So it's not like he lost some and he gained some. 
I think Evans will retire after this season. He needs to hand it off to younger guys on BMC, like Tejay van Garderen.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

There area a hundred race winning pros with no chance to ever contest a GT, many of the biggest stars in the sport can't. Cadel still wins and is still a top-10 GT rider. His inability to win the Giro is hardly a reason to consider retirement if he decides he still wants to race. Ending an extremely long career (World Cup pro in his teens) to be home with his family would be a better reason.


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