# when is jan going to attack?



## Bocephus Jones (Feb 3, 2004)

Is he content to just trail Armstrong and get second again? He's not been very agressive at all so far. He's going to have to launch some hellacious attacks soon if he has a chance of catching him at this point. Thought he's have done that Wednesday as soon as the terrain went uphill. Friday's stage should be interesting if Postal carries through on the threats to kick things up a notch. Might be Voeckler's final day in yellow.


----------



## CFBlue (Jun 28, 1999)

*ITTs?*

Maybe he's counting on winning in the time trials, must matching Lance up the hills. Let's watch for his team to press hard before a big climb. 

After the prologue (and TTT), though, it would appear Lance is in decent TT form. Jan may just have to wait for a musette incident to win.


----------



## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Bocephus Jones said:


> Is he content to just trail Armstrong and get second again? He's not been very agressive at all so far. He's going to have to launch some hellacious attacks soon if he has a chance of catching him at this point. Thought he's have done that Wednesday as soon as the terrain went uphill. Friday's stage should be interesting if Postal carries through on the threats to kick things up a notch. Might be Voeckler's final day in yellow.


Never. It's not his way. I don't think I've ever seen him standup and throw himself uphill like most riders do when they attack. When he does go, he attacks "like a postman," where he ups the pace and tries to ride away. I doubt we'll ever see a "hellacious" attack by Ullrich.


----------



## Duane Gran (Feb 3, 2004)

It is to early. You don't see Lance, Tyler or Iban Mayo attacking either. They all know the race doesn't start until there is a mountain top finish.


----------



## jimjo (May 18, 2004)

Duane Gran said:


> It is to early. You don't see Lance, Tyler or Iban Mayo attacking either. They all know the race doesn't start until there is a mountain top finish.


jan attack in the mountains??? when where?? mr deisel engine gear mashing even tempo aint gonna do it hes hoping to hold on until the final TT and then it will be a hope and a prayer to pull a lemond


----------



## bimini (Jul 2, 2003)

*Tomorrow one of the contenders will attack*

It's hard to say who will throw the glove down first. My guess is LA will have a go at it tomorrow. Once there is an attack the contenders will match or counterattack. 

Jan may make a preemptive strike first, but I doubt it. More likely he will make a counterstrike move once one of the contenders makes a move.

LA said in an interview yesterday, "Friday or Saturday". The team director all along has been saying the race will be determined early on. (but this could all be part of the head games they play with each other)

I think we will see if Lance can still climb tomorrow.



Bocephus Jones said:


> Is he content to just trail Armstrong and get second again? He's not been very agressive at all so far. He's going to have to launch some hellacious attacks soon if he has a chance of catching him at this point. Thought he's have done that Wednesday as soon as the terrain went uphill. Friday's stage should be interesting if Postal carries through on the threats to kick things up a notch. Might be Voeckler's final day in yellow.


----------



## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*Big Jan using big cranks: 177.5's to get more leverage on the climbs*

Lets see if he can hang with the likes of Mayo, Guterrez and Tyler etc... My bet he will try to finish in same time as Armstrong they all will let Mayo fly up the mountain ahead of them...


----------



## jimjo (May 18, 2004)

bimini said:


> It's hard to say who will throw the glove down first. My guess is LA will have a go at it tomorrow. Once there is an attack the contenders will match or counterattack.
> 
> Jan may make a preemptive strike first, but I doubt it. More likely he will make a counterstrike move once one of the contenders makes a move.
> 
> ...



i bet mayo is the first one to go then maybe heras look for LA JU and TH to counter. LA wont blow it apart unless he smells weakness otherwise hell wait a little longer until everyone is a little more tired the only reason to go first is if you cant counterattack


----------



## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*Well....*

the whole race is really about to begin.

When will Jan attack? He would need a longish 4-5% slope near the end. Over 6%, Jan is at a real disadvantage to the small climbers. But on the 'shallower climbs' he may be able to put that big diesel of his to work and grind the climbers away. The only stage that kinda fits this is stage 15 into Villard de Lans on the Chalimont climb. But being the day before the MTT, I kinda doubt it.

So, seems like he should try to follow wheels until the long tt and hit hard then. In fact, I can't imaging a tour route more anti-Ullrich than this. Even though it don't have mountain top finishes, the late descents will hurt JU as much...


----------



## firstrax (Nov 13, 2001)

When? Thats easy. Sunday night in the hotel lobby after being crowned 6 time runner up.


----------



## jumphress (Jul 15, 2003)

*Jan can't climb?*



mmoose said:


> He would need a longish 4-5% slope near the end. Over 6%, Jan is at a real disadvantage to the small climbers.


Hmmmm. Seems to me Jan has been able to at least stay with the mountain specialists even when on climbs with a profile of 7%. Don't forget that in the Chamrousse MTT back in 2001, Jan lost only 13 seconds to Lance over the final 10 k, which were among the steepest. (Of the 32k course, the final 18.7 km were at 7.1%)

I've seen on forums "The Alpe d'Huez TT doesn't suit Jan because of all the switchbacks." Well, there is a lot of straight road between those turns, and I think Jan will surprise a few folks.


----------



## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*Jan can climb...*

But the question was 'when will he attack'...

I don't see him attacking on the steeper climbs. On the flats, a team will pull him back be it Phonak, CSC or USPS or the peloton. So that leaves some 'shallower' climbs. 

Of course, it's should be a question of when the rivals are in trouble, not just geography. But I was thinking in terms of a premeditated planned attack. 

As for the MTT, it's individual, so can you 'attack' someone else riding individually? Don't make sense to me. Jan might win the MTT. I'd bet he loses minimal time to the real GC contenders. But a diesel needs a bit to get back into the pounding cadence between those switchbacks...so the straights will be 'shorter' to Jan than to others.

Go Jan, give us a good attack and make this race interesting! (I'm just don't see where he will attack in the mountains that would make much sense)

Firstrax, that was cold and cruel...funny and a well placed shot yes, but still cold and cruel...


----------



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Jan has to pull a "Big Mig'*

limit his damages in the Mtns and keep it close enough to have a shot in the ITT. He's the weakest climber of the top contenders, no offense and it's mostly just because he's bigger
than the rest. The added weight limits him usually to 'hanging on' on mountain stages. He's about 35 over Tyler and Roberto and 20-25 over Lance and Iban. Regarding those 'straights' in AlpDH. he has to reaccelerate up each one which he's shown not to be his forte. he's a lo-cadence grinder and climbers do the most damage to him with rhythm changes and burst attacks. The switchbacks of AlDH cause the same tempo changes that these attacks do. I hope the Kaiser does well but I'm judging this with my mind and not heart.


----------



## Niwot (Jul 16, 2004)

*Good analysis*



atpjunkie said:


> limit his damages in the Mtns and keep it close enough to have a shot in the ITT. He's the weakest climber of the top contenders, no offense and it's mostly just because he's bigger than the rest. The added weight limits him usually to 'hanging on' on mountain stages. He's about 35 over Tyler and Roberto and 20-25 over Lance and Iban. Regarding those 'straights' in AlpDH. he has to reaccelerate up each one which he's shown not to be his forte. he's a lo-cadence grinder and climbers do the most damage to him with rhythm changes and burst attacks. The switchbacks of AlDH cause the same tempo changes that these attacks do. I hope the Kaiser does well but I'm judging this with my mind and not heart.


There's only two ways Ullrich can win: (1) The Indurain way, "Hang with 'em in the mountains and kill 'em in the time trial", or (2) A war of attrition where Ullrich has no bad days in the mountains while each of the other top contenders cracks on at least one stage. Number (2) is actually more likely this year because, as you say, Armstrong looks like he'll be at his best in the time trials and the l'Alpe d'Huez TT does not favor Ullrich; he will be fortunate if he loses less than 30 seconds to Armstrong that day.


----------



## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

Bocephus Jones said:


> Is he content to just trail Armstrong and get second again? He's not been very agressive at all so far. He's going to have to launch some hellacious attacks soon if he has a chance of catching him at this point. Thought he's have done that Wednesday as soon as the terrain went uphill. Friday's stage should be interesting if Postal carries through on the threats to kick things up a notch. Might be Voeckler's final day in yellow.


Until today's stage there has been no reason to attack. The 2 climbs today will sort out who the real contenders are for the tour. Hopefully, Heras or Mayo will show some style and attack on the Col d'Aspin although if the conservativism of the last few years remains all the big chiefs will wait to the final climb to test one another.


----------



## DanM (Apr 17, 2004)

The ONLY thing he's going to attack is a box of Krispy Kremes


----------



## evs (Feb 18, 2004)

*I've never seen him stand on the pedals...*

Wouldn't you think that he'd learn to do that to put a quick gap on his oppents at times then diesel power it after that.I was wondering why I have never seen him stand up the pedals and do the bike dance.It's just one more thing that he could use as a weapon.I know it takes alot out of a rider to do that but if he could combine it with his current style it would be even more impressive and he might be able to put more of a hurting on some of his rivals.I've only seen a few races of Indurian.Did he ever dance on the pedalsin any of his races.I'd think to be an all around rider one would have to learn all the techniques and use them all as well to win the ultimate bike race.Maybe if he did this last year he might have won.

evs(the fun is about to start)


----------



## MountainPro (Jan 14, 2003)

Bocephus Jones said:


> Is he content to just trail Armstrong and get second again? He's not been very agressive at all so far.


he has not been very aggressive, youre right, but neither has Armstrong. One Eurosport commentator said that he rekons Jan is keeping Lance in his sight (keep your friends close and your enemies even closer) that way he can monitor the situation easily. I think he may attack today but i agree with some other guys who said that he will wait for the ITT. I am sure however that if Lance attacks today Jan will try and stay on his wheel to limit any damage before the ITT. 

Perhaps Virenque will attack today and try and go for the GC but really cant see anyone but Jan, Lance and Tyler battling it out in the final stages for the Yellow shirt..


----------



## evs (Feb 18, 2004)

*YES, it's all very interesting, but my point is...*

that to beat Lance he needs to be able to match him when he accelerates on the climbs.Every time I have seen Lance stand up and go faster on a climb , the diesel man loses time because he can't accelerate fast enough to at least stay even with him.I know it's easier said than done but I'd luv to see Jan stand up and dance on the pedals at least once.Once he's up to speed there is no stopping him put that's my point.It takes awhile for him to get up to speed.He's still VERY impressive on the climbs, especially for one of the bigger guys in the tour.
On a side note I just read an article on Tyler Hamilton that his racing weight is 135 lbs.He's a local boy to me and I'd like to see him do good.He's also a great climber and dances on the pedals.
Come to think of it, all the great climbers know how to do the bike dance.Do you think Jan's heart rate would spike to much if he tried to stand on the pedals?I wonder if he ever tried it in training.
I know I try to follow this mt goat we ride with and when I stand up I can accelerate and stay with him on the climbs but it takes a great amount of energy out of me and is harder to recover than if I sit down and let him go a bit then catch up to him later which I think he let's me do.  Granted I weigh 210 and my companion is only 150 but I'm trying to learn from these climbers and be like them.Hopefully one day it will be a legitimate arrow in my arsenal of riding technigues that will make me a better rider.One guy I ride with taught me to let it hang out and blast over the hill and keep going , not slowing down, and recovery on the flats or dowhnhill after the climb.Psycologically it is harder to do than say.Isn't this fun speculating  They all have my deepest respect.From the last place rider the the top riders.

Thanks for listening 
evs


----------



## MountainPro (Jan 14, 2003)

evs said:


> Once he's up to speed there is no stopping him put that's my point.It takes awhile for him to get up to speed.He's still VERY impressive on the climbs, especially for one of the bigger guys in the tour.


you also have to consider the differing riding styles of the two riders, Lance uses the new and improved high cadence technique which works well in the hills and appears to work well in the TTs too but Jan is a big fat traditionalist preferring the power/high gear techniques which leave little room for getting out of the saddle on the hills or on the flat, its very effective on the time trials but appears to be rather an erratic and inconsistent technique when climbing, or maybe thats just Jan. Its common to see both rideres on the climb with Lance out of the saddle apparently sprinting up the climb and Jan behind labouring away in the saddle but usually keepng up, I think he should change his technique and try and save energy on the long climbs, flip down one gear and 'dance in the pedals' and he should beat Lance...


----------



## HAL9000 (May 1, 2002)

*If today is any indication...*

He can't.


----------



## Bocephus Jones (Feb 3, 2004)

HAL9000 said:


> He can't.


no kidding. how much time did he lose today? obviously if he had the kick in him he's have cut his losses more when armstrong went out front.


----------



## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

HAL9000 said:


> He can't.


If he wasn't sick or something, then he should be ashamed of himself. Climbing along side of Julich and Brochard for most of the climb has got to be utterly demoralizing. Heras and Hamilton were even worse off! Two of Tyler's domestiques rode with the front group long after he was dropped and hung on until it was down to about 10 riders.


----------



## limba (Mar 10, 2004)

Lol.Lance broke some legs today.


----------



## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

limba said:


> Lol.Lance broke some legs today.


Not really. He never really attacked. It got whittled down to about 10 riders, all the USPS domestiques were gone. A couple of tentative attacks that cracked a few more riders and then Sastre made one stick. If I remember correctly Kloden went first and Basso sat on him. Armstrong was out of the picture but then he rode up to Kloden/Basso and went over them, and Basso latched onto his wheel until Armstrong pulled back Sastre. At that point all three kinda worked together until Sastre cracked, and then Basso and Armstrong rode together to the finish. If he had the legs today to really hit them, he held back in anticipation of tomorrow when he could potentially put the nail in the coffin for everybody. OTOH, maybe he was riding a pretty much his limit today?


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

*He looked pretty good*

On the climb, he looked about like he always does on these climbs, and I think you're right about him not really attacking. He looked to have a pretty good rhythm going and maintained it. I think Basso beat him to the line fair and square, though. I can't imagine he graciously gave up the stage win and time bonus. He likes to get at least a stage, and this was a perfect opportunity. I think he tried, but Basso was just a bit stronger at the end. He sure looked comfortable next to Lance. Maybe he'll contend? Looks like Jan and Tyler, Heras might be done, unless LA has a breakdown. I don't see any of them putting that kind of time into him anywhere. Just my opinion.



Dwaynebarry said:


> Not really. He never really attacked. It got whittled down to about 10 riders, all the USPS domestiques were gone. A couple of tentative attacks that cracked a few more riders and then Sastre made one stick. If I remember correctly Kloden went first and Basso sat on him. Armstrong was out of the picture but then he rode up to Kloden/Basso and went over them, and Basso latched onto his wheel until Armstrong pulled back Sastre. At that point all three kinda worked together until Sastre cracked, and then Basso and Armstrong rode together to the finish. If he had the legs today to really hit them, he held back in anticipation of tomorrow when he could potentially put the nail in the coffin for everybody. OTOH, maybe he was riding a pretty much his limit today?


----------



## wongsifu_mk (Mar 5, 2002)

*USPS, not Lance, broke legs today*



Dwaynebarry said:


> Not really....OTOH, maybe he was riding a pretty much his limit today?


Props to that mean-ass team. Azevedo earned his salary and proved his worth as Heras' "replacement". Hincapie's climbing today, after his rouleur stages, is better than I've ever seen.

What was that push about between Lance & Floyd?


----------



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*being a larger rider.....*

it is harder to 'dance on the pedals'. the increase in weight and upper body mass (and the drain from supporting it while standing) causes larger riders to go anaerobic and into lactic overload faster than our diminutive friends. the increase in weight also means his wattage has to be much higher just to 'hang on'. so sometimes the 'old school' low cadence BIG POWER works for bigger guys and prevents us from 'blowing' and losing even more time. so on climbs like today and tomorrow at equal wattage Jan would lose somewhere between 266-300 ft per mile on a 10% grade to LA (given his weight is 15-20 over LA).
so for you flyweights, one of thses days when you ride with your Clydesdales buddies, throw a pack or bag on with 20-50 lbs of weight and we'll gladly welcome you to our world of pain. I'm just bummed Magnus dropped out.


----------



## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

wongsifu_mk said:


> Props to that mean-ass team. Azevedo earned his salary and proved his worth as Heras' "replacement". Hincapie's climbing today, after his rouleur stages, is better than I've ever seen.
> 
> What was that push about between Lance & Floyd?


I think it was kinda deceptive in that the USPS train broke the legs of many of the pre-race favorites like Ullrich, Hamilton, Heras, but these guys were dropped relatively early and were in the company of guys who really never have or can climb at the very front of a big mountain. Then Armstrong was alone with still about 10-15 guys most of whom were not big names (Karpets, Menchov, 2 or 3 of Phonaks "domestiques" (not Sevilla), Kloden, Sastre and Basso, Mayo, Mancebo, Mercado?, Serrano?). Mayo was really the only big favorite to still be there once it was down to the select group with no USPS guys left to pace. If today was any indication, Basso is the guy to challenge Armstrong for the win, but I'm sure that picture will change, probably by tommorrow.


----------



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*and how about...*

T-Mobs Horrid teamwork? a leadout guy screws Zabel of some Green Jersey pts, they drop Jan a couple seconds on a stage, he barely leaps to not get the time penalty. why isn't Kloden not helping his leader? Has Jan thrown in the towel? This sort of stuff would never happen at USPS, I'm beginning to think Jan isn't the dim bulb on that tree.
these 'tactical errors' are awful and not they type of tactics that put guys on the podium.


----------



## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

atpjunkie said:


> T-Mobs Horrid teamwork? a leadout guy screws Zabel of some Green Jersey pts, they drop Jan a couple seconds on a stage, he barely leaps to not get the time penalty. why isn't Kloden not helping his leader? Has Jan thrown in the towel? This sort of stuff would never happen at USPS, I'm beginning to think Jan isn't the dim bulb on that tree.
> these 'tactical errors' are awful and not they type of tactics that put guys on the podium.


Well since pushing isn't allowed how exactly was Kloden suppose to help Ullrich? Ullrich had Guerini with him, who could have obviously ridden faster if he wasn't nursing Ullrich. One guy would seem like enough when there really is little advantage other than psychological to have someone pace you.

And really Hamilton, then Ullrich, and then Heras were all dropped long before the going ever got tough. Hamilton was dropped when there were probably still 40 guys or so left in the group. Unless Ullrich was sick (or bonked) and Kloden implodes it would appear Kloden has a better shot at the podium than Ullrich. Kloden looked very good on the climb.


----------



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*agreed*

why I was wondering if Jan had thrown it in. I just don't think you'd ever see USPS riders leaving their captain unless it was ordered. it was Tylers complaint about CSC, and today as you stated he was dropped and Sevilla had a better run. maybe all the contenders let their doms go as they were all having off days.


----------



## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*let the doms ride*

I agree that the GC boys were so off, they let some others ride. Tyler motioned once or twice to teammates to not wait for him.

But, I think Kloden is gonna break out for himself. Maybe it's the last year of his contract and he is sick of the Tmobile machine of making domestiques out of very good riders. Tow Zabel to the line, but accidentally get 2nd place and the 12 second time bonus...tow JU up a mountain and drop him...good to see a rider show some [email protected] The German team in Athens will be very interesting.

This would never happen on USPS. Yes, because USPS has a 5 time defending champ. This tour looks more and more like it was designed anti-Ullrich. Let Kloden ride in the mountains for himself if the Tour is designed more for him the Big J.


----------



## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

atpjunkie said:


> why I was wondering if Jan had thrown it in. I just don't think you'd ever see USPS riders leaving their captain unless it was ordered. it was Tylers complaint about CSC, and today as you stated he was dropped and Sevilla had a better run. maybe all the contenders let their doms go as they were all having off days.


Well when Tyler was dropped he had 2 or 3 Phonaks with him, and still there were at least 2 maybe 3 still in the Armstrong group much later at the top of the climb. I'm not sure where Sevilla was, but I don't think he was in the final 10-15 man selection. Tyler went out the back almost as soon as the climb got the least bit steep, and was riding at the back of the group up the Col d'Aspin as well. As for Jan, he was suffering like a dog, so I don't think he's thrown the towel in, he certainly wasn't taking it easy at all, and really was climbing with a group of guys that he had no business being with. It wasn't so much as Armstrong rode particularly well today, but that all his main pre-race rivals rode very badly judging by the company they were keeping.


----------



## Steve-O (Jan 28, 2004)

*I'm almost wondering*

I'm almost wondering if this is some kind of strategy for tomorrow... Hamilton, Heras, et al, save their legs and attack Armstrong as a bunch in tomorrows stage? Could their be some collusion going on?

Steve (can't wait to see OLN tonight)


----------



## 97 Teran (Feb 17, 2004)

*Jan Ullrich is simply not an attacking rider*

I'm not particularly a Lance fan aside from appreciating that he's an amazing rider, but it mystifies me that people complain about his winning style (I understand people being tired of him winning again and again, that's understandable to a degree)- but is it really more interesting for an Indurain-type rider to win? Somehow I don't think so. And that is exactly what Jan would be, were he to ever win again (I don't think, mentally, he can- even if Lance doesn't ride next year) - an excellent time triallist who just does very well in the mountains relative to everyone else except 5 or 6 climbers. BUT, one who does @#$k all in the mountains, or flats for that matter, in terms of aggression. Ullrich obviously realizes that Lance and several other riders are as good and better than he is at fast climbing, but by NEVER taking a chance, never attempting a flat stage breakaway, never attacking early or at all- he resigns himself to (at best) a 2nd place finish before stage 1 even starts. And that, quite simply, is sad for such a talented rider. Beloki finally woke up and decided to at least try to earn his pay (for the first time) in last year's Tour, but Ullrich has yet to even try it. 

I had thought this Tour would be the most outstanding Tour of the past few years in terms of GC competition but so far the 'contenders' have been pretty pathetic 'pretenders.'


----------



## reklar (Mar 15, 2003)

Dwaynebarry said:


> I think it was kinda deceptive in that the USPS train broke the legs of many of the pre-race favorites like Ullrich, Hamilton, Heras, but these guys were dropped relatively early and were in the company of guys who really never have or can climb at the very front of a big mountain. Then Armstrong was alone with still about 10-15 guys most of whom were not big names (Karpets, Menchov, 2 or 3 of Phonaks "domestiques" (not Sevilla), Kloden, Sastre and Basso, Mayo, Mancebo, Mercado?, Serrano?). Mayo was really the only big favorite to still be there once it was down to the select group with no USPS guys left to pace. If today was any indication, Basso is the guy to challenge Armstrong for the win, but I'm sure that picture will change, probably by tommorrow.


Yeah, LA kept looking around...you could see the wheels spinning in his head--"This is all that's left? Tyler , Mayo or Heras must be hiding behind a couple of these guys."


----------

