# The TDF thread!



## muscleendurance (Jan 11, 2009)

I know, so near yet so far away!

Things are hotting up, LA is coming into form despite the year he has had, he is not as dominant a TT'er as he used to be, good thing really given theres only 1 50k TT in the tour 

Contador tried hard to win the dauphine, or at the very least the Alpe d'Huez stage and failed miserably [for him]

Frank Shleck beat LA in the final TT of the TOS/TDS. 
Gesink choked in the final TT. 

all seems balanced in the TDF run up, will be so hard to call, I think LA is VERY pleased with his form going into la grand boucle.


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## ghost6 (Sep 4, 2009)

Things are hotting up for sure. Looking forward to it.


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

muscleendurance said:


> Frank Shleck beat LA in the final TT of the TOS/TDS.


For the stage, Lance beat Schleck by 5 seconds. Considering Schleck's infamous TT skills, that is almost like beating him on the stage, though.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

the only way anyone beats Contador is if they knock him down...


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## varian72 (Jul 18, 2006)

Menchov???


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## thehook (Mar 14, 2006)

Looking at the pictures from the TDS. To me it looks like LA is trimming down. And with only 1 TT in the tour. And alot of climbing it will be interesting to see how he does in the Alps & Pyreenes.

And I would not put anything past LA. As far as holding back alot of form in the TDS. To show it where it counts in the Pyreenes.

Sure does look to be an interesting Tour. And Menchov is just laying low. Gotta wonder what he has?

And DO NOT discount big George Hincapie for the podium. Just kidding!

Safe Ride!


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## tommyrhodes (Aug 19, 2009)

To my untrained eye it seems to be a fairly open race at this point. Fingerbang has failed to deliver on the hype and LA seems to be coming into shape. thats not to mention the list of guys with a shot, Evans, Wiggo, Shleck, Sastre(it could happen), Landis.

GO LANCE!!! (or anyone other than Conti)


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## tinkerbeast (Jul 24, 2009)

zombie marco pantani (it could also happen)


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

thehook said:


> Looking at the pictures from the TDS. To me it looks like LA is trimming down.


Have you seen him on the July Outside magazine? He looks sickly he's so thin. He has to be at or near his fighting weight.


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

stevesbike said:


> the only way anyone beats Contador is if they knock him down...


It could happen on the cobbles.


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## irongustavius (Aug 17, 2008)

stevesbike said:


> the only way anyone beats Contador is if they knock him down...


Get Cav onto it.


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## tkavan01 (Jun 24, 2004)

i'm betting on identical results to last year, just different middle parts.


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## colombo357 (Jun 19, 2010)

Jan Ullrich is going to win.


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## C6Rider (Nov 15, 2008)

*from yesterday's TT*



thehook said:


> Looking at the pictures from the TDS. To me it looks like LA is trimming down.
> 
> Safe Ride!


He's not looking that slim, at least not in this picture from Stage 9.


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## Sylint (Jul 27, 2009)

C6Rider said:


> He's not looking that slim, at least not in this picture from Stage 9.


I love that people pull up these pictures after every TT.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Contador will win. That is all.


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## godot (Feb 3, 2004)

tommyrhodes said:


> To my untrained eye it seems to be a fairly open race at this point. Fingerbang has failed to deliver on the hype and LA seems to be coming into shape.


LA second in the TdS. Conti second in the Dauphine. One is rounding into form and one is struggling? How many races has LA won this year? Conti?

Then there's that whole losing a TT to Andy (he's not a GC threat because of TT) Schlek thing. LA used to win the tour in the mtns and TT's. Since he started his comeback he's shown nothing to suggest that he's going to put time into people in the TT's and there are a number of guys that will be lining up for the tour that have proven to be better climbers.

My prediction is that the cobble stage is much ado about nothing. Conti wins GC. Rest of the podium spots are up for grabs, but I think this years podium looks a lot like last years.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

I just wish the Tour will be as exciting to follow as this year's Giro. Last year's (and many of the last few) Tour de France was a boring snor-fest... Probably why the media focused so much on the off the bike Alberto-Lance soap opera.

Fighters for the GC: Contador, Evans, Andy Schleck, Basso... and Lance is starting to look like a top 10 finisher (something I was doubting he could do just recently), there is not much TT time this year so Contador and Evans don't have that edge over the others, the climbs will be decisive.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

I wish Wim Vansevenant would come out of retirement and take a shot at regaining the title of lanterne rouge, after dominating the race in 2006, 2007, and 2008.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I wonder about Andy Schleck's form. He hasn't seemed to be firing right all spring. Maybe he'll come to peak form during the Tour. 

Frank Schleck looked like he had been doing some serious work on his time trialing. 

Contador seems to be struggling.


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## ghost6 (Sep 4, 2009)

Anybody but Fingerbang.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

irongustavius said:


> Get Cav onto it.


sweet response!


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

> Contador seems to be struggling


Really? Based on what?


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

*Questions*

Will a decent rider target the polka dots this year from the outset? 

What teams will be revealed had having no sponsors for next year?

Will the much rumored Spanish super-team be finally announced?

How many stages before Vino pulls a Vino?

How many stages till Cav stirs the pot again?

Is this the year anyone cares about the white jersey? 

Garmin versus HTC, does Garmin finally win a battle in this war?


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

varian72 said:


> Menchov???


Nope. Some interesting younger talent on that team though.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

I agree- I think illness and crashes will play a much bigger role this year. Seems like the roads get more and more hazardous every year. More crap is added to each road = more crashes, often at high speed. The flat stages are much more likely to end a GC riders Tour this year that ever before.


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## muscleendurance (Jan 11, 2009)

Coolhand said:


> Nope. Some interesting younger talent on that team though.


you mean Gesink? he's shown his cards and they are not as impressive as some hoped or suggested. I dont think anyone from rabbo will be a podium finisher.


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## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

Michael Rogers could be a chance for podium. His form has been pretty good this season and he has said he is targeting this years tour.


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## 97G8tr (Jul 31, 2007)

Basso/Kreuzieger/Pellizotti should be interesting to watch this year. That, and the usual suspects.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Contador will easily dominate this tour. He has gained the experience to refrain from going all out on the climbs when his competitors simply cannot match him. I wont be surprised to see him enter the Vuelta and dominate there again as well.


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

dougydee said:


> Michael Rogers could be a chance for podium. His form has been pretty good this season and he has said he is targeting this years tour.


I believe you are onto something, mentioning Rogers or even his teammate Tony Martin. They'll be laying low, hiding under the GC Contador vs. Armstrong vs. Schleck brothers banter, and will have further cover on their own team with Cav getting all the attention. 

Definitely watch out for these two riders!


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## cheddarlove (Oct 17, 2005)

And what about Naomi?? 
I mean Wiggins. He did pretty well last year and yet he too has been laying low.
Seems like every time a pro goes off and trains on his own they come to the race a flop big time.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

muscleendurance said:


> you mean Gesink? he's shown his cards and they are not as impressive as some hoped or suggested. I dont think anyone from rabbo will be a podium finisher.


Really? They basically made this a climbing tour. Gesink could do quite well (assuming he doesn't fall off the bike again).


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*yes it*



Sylint said:


> I love that people pull up these pictures after every TT.


never gets old does it? every year during his 7 tour reign and still it persists

I'm not saying he'll win the tour, just saying using those pix as signs he is overweight are silly


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Coolhand said:


> Garmin versus HTC, does Garmin finally win a battle in this war?


Mmm not at the team level, since Garmin has split priorities... but I wouldn't be surprised to see Tyler win a stage or 2, beating Cav would be sweet sweet sweet.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

97G8tr said:


> Basso/Kreuzieger/Pellizotti should be interesting to watch this year. That, and the usual suspects.


Well, I agree with Basso and Kreuziger but Pellizotti will be watching the race on TV... And with Nibali taking a break and a pass on the Tour, less chiefs, more indians, Liquigas will be better off with two leaders than with four.


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

Two to watch.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Menchov put in an extremely poor result at the Dauphine, particularly Alpe D' Huez. You could argue he was bluffing, but come on. Gesink looks to be the stronger of the two.


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## zphogan (Jan 27, 2007)

I have a feeling Armstrong is going to shock the hell out of most everyone and somehow win.


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## Comer (Jan 13, 2009)

The coolest story so far is that Michael Barry is finally getting his chance to ride the TdF. I hope he relishes every moment. Cool the ******* is back too.


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## ghost6 (Sep 4, 2009)

zphogan said:


> I have a feeling Armstrong is going to shock the hell out of most everyone and somehow win.


He might win. After all, he is the guy who has won the TdF more than any other cyclist in history.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

I hope he is competitive

there is a video of Lance climbing stage 6 TDS on youtube, it was not posted here, and though he was with the gang he was really catching up to them, not exactly in the leading group. In fact it appeared he was behind and when Frank sat up near the top lance caught up. It means little if anything but a point to be taken. 

Given his prep this year, it might bode well for him that the Pys are in the third week giving him some more time to finesse his form a bit perhaps

The Schlecks must be thinking this is their big chance I would presume


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## BDB (Jul 8, 2002)

jorgy said:


> Have you seen him on the July Outside magazine? He looks sickly he's so thin. He has to be at or near his fighting weight.


so that's the shirt he was pissed at outside for .

I guess he wore a plain blue shirt.

they photoshopped the cover.




@lancearmstrong said:


> Just saw the cover of the new Outside mag w/ yours truly on it. Nice photoshop on a plain t-shirt guys. That's some lame bullshit.


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## slimjw (Jul 30, 2008)

I won't be surprised if Wiggo's showing is less impressive than last year's. If wrong, I'll happily eat my words, but I agree with cheddarlove's take on the "skipping a bunch of stuff to train for the tour" phenomenon. 

Don't think that Armstrong is going to win it, but I too think he'll be a force at this year's race. I'm not a huge Lance fan, but he will definitely put some salt on the cracker if he's going good. 

Dark Horses; I don't think Sastre can be considered a hope for the overall, but I am rooting for him to win a stage or two if for no other reason than I'd like to see him redeem his season and come back from riding the Giro with a herniated disc (ouch). 

Evans is another one I'd like to see do well. I don't see him on the podium this year after that Giro, but who knows. I know a lot of people hate Cadel, but he rode his *ss off in Italy and showed some quality there in adverse conditions. 

Frankie S. could be a surprise this year as well. Will be interesting to see how all these predictions pan out when the race gets underway!


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## arshak (Jun 13, 2005)

Lance yesterday. He looks totally manorexic. Can see his hip bones sticking out in this photo


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## RRRoubaix (Aug 27, 2008)

arshak said:


> Lance yesterday. He looks totally manorexic. Can see his hip bones sticking out in this photo


LOL- never heard that term. Awesome!

Sadly, I agree w/ Creaky, but I hope and pray it's not "Fingerbang".
Even though I'm a bit conflicted about LA, I hope he kicks ass. (I'm not saying "win", but kick some ass old man!)

Oh, and I hope Zombie Pantani crashes out Boy Racer.


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## Gnarly 928 (Nov 19, 2005)

stevesbike said:


> the only way anyone beats Contador is if they knock him down...


 Cavendisn vs Contador?


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## muscleendurance (Jan 11, 2009)

BDB said:


> so that's the shirt he was pissed at outside for .
> 
> I guess he wore a plain blue shirt.
> 
> they photoshopped the cover.


At the risk of sunding like I actually care, what is the 38 a reference to?
his retirement age I would guess, but BFD??

BEEN FEELIN DANDY :idea:

either way its a fine PS job, very hard to tell :wink5:


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## Chef Tony (Mar 2, 2004)

Dan Gerous said:


> Well, I agree with Basso and Kreuziger but Pellizotti will be watching the race on TV... And with Nibali taking a break and a pass on the Tour, less chiefs, more indians, Liquigas will be better off with two leaders than with four.


Has Liquigas announced their Tour roster? They have been at been mixing it up all spring at should have a very strong team. I see Basso on the podium.


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## JohnHemlock (Jul 15, 2006)

Lance has announced this is his last TdF. Looking forward to making $100 when he podiums!


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## godot (Feb 3, 2004)

JohnHemlock said:


> Lance has announced this is his last TdF. Looking forward to making $100 when he podiums!


I sure hope Versus got the memo so they can be sure to pay extra attention to LA during their coverage.


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## Andrew1 (May 27, 2009)

LA tweeted a few hours ago that this Tour will be his last. He'll make some noise this year.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

moabbiker said:


> Contador will easily dominate this tour. He has gained the experience to refrain from going all out on the climbs when his competitors simply cannot match him. I wont be surprised to see him enter the Vuelta and dominate there again as well.


Contador has the best chance to win when comparing individual riders but he's got more credible challengers than he's ever had to race against in his career, more than Lance ever had to deal with in his run. His team is unproven as they have lost control of the race many times this year. If he wins (which he should), it could be the hardest fought victory of his career. It should be incredble to watch.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

JohnHemlock said:


> Lance has announced this is his last TdF. Looking forward to making $100 when he podiums!


I am glad you are still upbeat about your portion of the wager, looks like he will make it to the start line so we are on.


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

Without a strong team, ACs biggest threat is being isolated in the mtns. He might be able to cover a few attacks from Andy, Frank, etc. But he can only cover so many. If someone counters at just the right moment then who knows. They might catch him gassed after burning one too many matches. Aside from that, he would need to make a tactical blunder (certainly possible) or have a mechanical to lose time. Those are the only plausible scenarios IMO. No one can climb better than AC when he's on form. But he's going to need a soldier to guard the flock once the road heads up. Maybe, just maybe, Vino's will step up to fill that role.


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## loudog (Jul 22, 2008)

wheezer said:


> Without a strong team, ACs biggest threat is being isolated in the mtns. He might be able to cover a few attacks from Andy, Frank, etc. But he can only cover so many. If someone counters at just the right moment then who knows. They might catch him gassed after burning one too many matches. Aside from that, he would need to make a tactical blunder (certainly possible) or have a mechanical to lose time. Those are the only plausible scenarios IMO. No one can climb better than AC when he's on form. But he's going to need a soldier to guard the flock once the road heads up. Maybe, just maybe, Vino's will step up to fill that role.


i tend to agree with this sentiment tho i'd prefer that fingerbang lose in a humiliating fashion. vino is a psycho and if he's feeling like he can podium then AC could pay the price.

lance does look sickly thin. he just might be in rare form... i'd like to see LA win just for the controversy!


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## thehook (Mar 14, 2006)

Sure would be cool to see the Old Man drop the hammer on the Fingerbang. Conti is the best climber in the world when on form. With that being said. I agree with some of the other posters he will see alot of heat from alot of teams. How many moves can he cover solo? How strong is his team?

Lance needs to have some time in hand on Conti going into the last TT. And by the super low body weight he seems to be in now. He might just try to out climb the climber. And lets not forget the mental factor Conti won both tours with JB running the show. Lets see how it goes for him on the new team. When he gets alot of heat from alot of teams?


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## 97G8tr (Jul 31, 2007)

LA announced this is his last TdF so I hope he can show El Pistalero something this year.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

Andrew1 said:


> He'll make some noise this year.


His mere presence will bring some noise but he'll be a non-factor in the race. I grant him a top-ten finish. He'd be very fortunate to get top five. No podium.

I have spoken.


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## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

Is there a single reason to tune into this race before stage 14?


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## ragweed (Jan 2, 2009)

culdeus said:


> Is there a single reason to tune into this race before stage 14?


Cobbles.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

> With that being said. I agree with some of the other posters he will see alot of heat from alot of teams. How many moves can he cover solo? How strong is his team?


Why would say Saxo not cover an attack by Basso or Armstrong? 

Once teams have positions to defend, I don't see how Contador is the only one needing to cover breaks.


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## godot (Feb 3, 2004)

culdeus said:


> Is there a single reason to tune into this race before stage 14?


Most likely not, stage 3 maybe.


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

godot said:


> Most likely not, stage 3 maybe.


There's a decent chance of some fireworks on Stage 3 and maybe a good chance it will be instigated by LA. Don't underestimate how light AC will feel under 13 k of tough cobbles. And remember how Iban Mayo was basically eliminated at a similar stretch back when he looked like he was threatening for GC. His Tour basically ended at the cobbles of that Tour. Stage 3 will almost definitely be a litmus test for this year's Tour, especially with the disparity between experience vs. youth that is likely to play out more so than years past. Further, I don't know how much Stage 3 favors the Schlecks. Sure, they have Spartacus to shepherd them through, but how much will that matter if he grinds them to a pulp in the process. Lance, Cadel and Rogers might be eyeing Stage 3 as a chance to hold the favorites' feet to the fire. Could be either more interesting than you think or as interesting as it's been predicted. But I don't think it will be a sleeper.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

AdamM said:


> Why would say Saxo not cover an attack by Basso or Armstrong?
> 
> Once teams have positions to defend, I don't see how Contador is the only one needing to cover breaks.


It'd be a gamble but Contador is in the position LA was in during his run. For Conti, 2nd place might as well be a DNF, he has to win and that can be exploited to at least burn off his team earlier than he'd like. If he's isolated he may have to let someone like Menchov , Levi or Kruezinger go up the road. If he does and finds himself in a group with no friends the minutes will fall away. If he loses minutes to someone like that he will have a hard time getting any of it back because everyone will have incentive to chase him. He's good but not take 2 minutes in a stage good like Lance was.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Velonews has a great summary of the stage profiles here. 

Some of the really big climbing stages do not finish at the top. I dont' know what that means, but there it is.


JSR


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

I watched the tour preview show last night on versus.. The schlek brothers will be fun to watch. Contador might be the best individually but without protection he's got a hard fight on his hands..


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## Mishrak (Jun 30, 2010)

Without Peirero on his team, I think Astana has one of the weakest and most patchwork teams they have ever had. Contrast that to TRS who has arguably one of the strongest teams he's ever had. There's a bit of dissension on Astana, although it's been covered up a bit in the press. Pereiro getting snubbed? That's pretty sad, honestly. I'd rather have a slightly aging former TDF winner and experienced veteran as my domestique than a neo-pro who's still trying to figure out how to get through a feed zone. Meanwhile, TRS has one goal, and one goal only: Lance Armstrong in yellow. 

You can't judge last year's Tour to see how he's going to do. He had way too many factors working against him to win that Tour and I don't even think that was his goal. He's looked progressively stronger as this season has gone on and I expect him to win the Tour. I'll be shocked if anything less happens.


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## Brad the Bold (Jun 8, 2010)

muscleendurance said:


> At the risk of sunding like I actually care, what is the 38 a reference to?
> his retirement age I would guess, but BFD??
> 
> BEEN FEELIN DANDY :idea:
> ...


To me BFD has always stood for Big F***in' Deal.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

> If he's isolated he may have to let someone like Menchov , Levi or Kruezinger go up the road. If he does and finds himself in a group with no friends the minutes will fall away. If he loses minutes to someone like that he will have a hard time getting any of it back because everyone will have incentive to chase him.


Again, how does intentionally giving up time to someone like Kruezinger or Basso help Andy Schleck? 

I think this being the last TDF for Armstrong the bunch will just disregard attacks by Levi, Klodi and Brajkovic. I mean do folks really think if another RS rider gets a big lead that Armstrong's going to play a support role? It would be hilarious for Contador and the others to call the bluff and let Levi or Brajkovic go up the road and get a big lead on Armstrong just to see how fast Bruyneel would bring them back.


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

AdamM said:


> Again, how does intentionally giving up time to someone like Kruezinger or Basso help Andy Schleck?
> 
> I think this being the last TDF for Armstrong the bunch will just disregard attacks by Levi, Klodi and Brajkovic. I mean do folks really think if another RS rider gets a big lead that Armstrong's going to play a support role? It would be hilarious for Contador and the others to call the bluff and let Levi or Brajkovic go up the road and get a big lead on Armstrong just to see how fast Bruyneel would bring them back.


It's a valid point but how may times have you seen a group of "favorites" watch an attack go up the road and they each look at each other, "are YOU going to cover? You want me to cover?" while the attacking rider stretches out the gap. If one of the Schlecks goes, there's Lance is going to leave ALL the chasing duties up to Contador. I don't know if Andy would do the same if the tables were turned but I think that's what you do if you want to win and not settle for a podium spot.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

wheezer said:


> It's a valid point but how may times have you seen a group of "favorites" watch an attack go up the road and they each look at each other, "are YOU going to cover? You want me to cover?" while the attacking rider stretches out the gap.


this is how Sastre won TdF, and come think of it Landis too (and Pereiro almost did). This is also how Sastre re-gained all the lost time back in this year's Giro, and Rasmussen almost ended up on podium in TdF one year, if not for the most disastrous ITT of all time.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

wheezer said:


> It's a valid point but how may times have you seen a group of "favorites" watch an attack go up the road and they each look at each other, "are YOU going to cover? You want me to cover?" while the attacking rider stretches out the gap. If one of the Schlecks goes, there's Lance is going to leave ALL the chasing duties up to Contador. I don't know if Andy would do the same if the tables were turned but I think that's what you do if you want to win and not settle for a podium spot.


Something else to think about. The guy who needs this win more than Contador is... Armstrong. This is it for him and he didn't do this comeback to sit back and ride support for anyone if he can help it. So unless it's Armstrong in the break, Radio Shack will be the ones with the most incentive to chase.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Mishrak said:


> Without Peirero on his team, I think Astana has one of the weakest and most patchwork teams they have ever had. Contrast that to TRS who has arguably one of the strongest teams he's ever had. There's a bit of dissension on Astana, although it's been covered up a bit in the press. Pereiro getting snubbed? That's pretty sad, honestly. I'd rather have a slightly aging former TDF winner and experienced veteran as my domestique than a neo-pro who's still trying to figure out how to get through a feed zone. Meanwhile, TRS has one goal, and one goal only: Lance Armstrong in yellow.
> 
> You can't judge last year's Tour to see how he's going to do. He had way too many factors working against him to win that Tour and I don't even think that was his goal. He's looked progressively stronger as this season has gone on and I expect him to win the Tour. I'll be shocked if anything less happens.


Pereiro's form hasn't been great and when he went down hard in 2008, never recovered to where he was even before then. The training camp they had likely suggested Pereiro was simply in no position to be taking up a valuable slot on the tour squad. So not being snubbed, just not up to form. Does no good if Pereiro can't even hang in the mountains, plus nobody's going to let Pereiro go solo in a breakaway. Astana has a strong team for Contador. De La Fuente and Navarro will power on the steepest climbs out there. Tiralongo while not great will help too. Maxim Iglinsky will keep the cobbles issue to be even less of an issue than what it's already overblown to be, and they got good rollers on the team too. Grivko will be valuable for breakaways for the team to rack on a stage win on his own. Overall, very balanced. Astana sacrificing Allan Davis for the sprints is a good move. And of course, the biggest machine gun on the team is Vino, who had awesome form in the Giro for his abilities.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

cross post / re-post: complete google maps, schedules etc here:

http://paris.thover.com/article/332...-earth-and-the-route-and-time-schedule.html#P


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## Jokull (Aug 13, 2007)

culdeus said:


> Is there a single reason to tune into this race before stage 14?


That seems a little unfair.

Stage 2: a mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege - should be good racing
Stage 3: a mini Paris-Roubaix - the cobbles should be interesting
Stage 7: a summit only 4 km from the finish - should make the first selection of the race
Stage 8: a summit finish
Stages 9 and 10 both enough mountains to make a selection (unfortunatly followed by enough descent for a regrouping...)
Stage 12: the summit of a steep climb only 2 km from the finish


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

wheezer said:


> There's a decent chance of some fireworks on Stage 3 and maybe a good chance it will be instigated by LA. Don't underestimate how light AC will feel under 13 k of tough cobbles. And remember how Iban Mayo was basically eliminated at a similar stretch back when he looked like he was threatening for GC. His Tour basically ended at the cobbles of that Tour. Stage 3 will almost definitely be a litmus test for this year's Tour, especially with the disparity between experience vs. youth that is likely to play out more so than years past. Further, I don't know how much Stage 3 favors the Schlecks. Sure, they have Spartacus to shepherd them through, but how much will that matter if he grinds them to a pulp in the process. Lance, Cadel and Rogers might be eyeing Stage 3 as a chance to hold the favorites' feet to the fire. Could be either more interesting than you think or as interesting as it's been predicted. But I don't think it will be a sleeper.


I'm concerned with how Levi and Jani will handle the cobbles. Levi's as light or lighter than Conti, and has a history of crashing out. If he stays upright, but loses significant time, his danger factor decreases, making him a weaker card for RS to play, sending him up the road in the mountains. 
Tactically, it will be a very challenging stage. Teams, riders, and directors will have to have a plan, and be able to alter the plan depending on how it breaks up. 
Outside of the riders, it will be a test for the announcers to skillfully call the race and not miss anything.


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

Levi and Jani will be non-factors for the GC, although they'll play a significant support role. As far as who's going to feel pressure to chase breakaways, Lance will either play poker face or possum but either way, as I see it, this is his greatest advantage over the other GC faves. He won't be the first to chase if either Andy or Conti is there to do it. After winning seven of them, he's not going to lose at the game of tactics, despite the fact that this is his last Tour. If the tour comes down to strength, fitness and power climbing, Alberto wins. If Lance can actually withstand the pace when it matters most and it comes down to tactics, my bet is on Lance.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

1) Conti
2) Andy
3) Cadel

Basso is my wildcard to mess with this podium.

Lance not in top five - maybe top ten.

This will be great race to watch, not just the ride but the tactics - but may not be able to match up to this year's Giro in racing drama. Looking forward to lots of good Lance and Cav sound-bites as the psych wars are waged!

Cav will have a great Tour I suspect - in green at the end for sure.

Good luck to Team Saxo Bank on their last great campaign!


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## fab4 (Jan 8, 2003)

My GC podium prediction:

1) Armstrong
2) Basso
3) Contador


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

JohnHemlock said:


> Lance has announced this is his last TdF. Looking forward to making $100 when he podiums!


You can donate my $100 now or wait till the end of the tour. Its up to you.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Red Herrings!

Lots of wild theories have been bantered about - let's crack open the can and check in:

Lance will beat Contador and win the Tour = Someone might, but it isn't going to be Lance.
Conti can't ride cobbles = Not - did just fine thank you very much.
Andy can't win without his brother Frank = Won his first TdF stage ever without Frank.
Astana not strong enough and will not be able to support Conti in the mountains - Umm, wrong!
Sparticus needs an engine in his bike = Wrong again, Sparticus IS an engine! Scan him.
Cadel is not a true GC threat = As of this post, Cadel is in yellow.
Radio Shack is the strongest team = Jury still out on that one, at the moment Astana and Saxo seem to have dibs on that claim.
A former LBL or PR champ will win Stage 2 = Chavenal - no victories in either.

Those are just the ones I can think of off-hand - anybody else got some Red Herrings to share?


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

shabbasuraj said:


> Two to watch.


As predicted.
I guess these gents are up to the task.


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