# Olympic RR predictions



## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Tour's over folks. Next! Get 'em while they're fresh.

Here's mine. Paolo Bettini. 

Yes you read that right. He is going to deliver. Gold shoes and olive wreaths for this Roman God. 

Did you know that in ancient Rome, "Bettini" was an expletive meaning "damn that guy's fast"


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

Anyone got a partial start list yet? 


I'll go with Valverde, if he shows.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

+1 Valverde


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Bettini


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

Bernard Kohl - he used to be a chimney sweep so should be able to handle the Beijing air better than others...


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## Racer C (Jul 18, 2002)

Boonen can certainly handle snorting a lot of junk into his lungs...


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

I've not seen a course profile, so it's hard to say. If it's like the 2004 race, and if Valverde wants it, then I can't see Bettini stopping him. They are such similar riders style wise, and Valv is 6 or 7 years younger.


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

stevesbike said:


> Bernard Kohl - he used to be a chimney sweep so should be able to handle the Beijing air better than others...


Am I the only one who got a chuckle out of the fact that a guy with the last name Kohl was a chimney sweep?


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## cpark (Oct 13, 2004)

Vladimir Efimkin if he in the team....


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

"Am I the only one who got a chuckle out of the fact that a guy with the last name Kohl was a chimney sweep?"

don't forget to his friends he's probably bernie kohl...


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## Racer C (Jul 18, 2002)

jorgy said:


> Am I the only one who got a chuckle out of the fact that a guy with the last name Kohl was a chimney sweep?


Chimney...Kohl...


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

from about.com

Profile of the Olympic Road Bike Race Course
By David Fiedler, About.com

Riders pass Tiananmen Square during the Olympic Men's Road Race test event in August 2007.
Feng Li/Getty ImagesSponsored Links

Remember the brutal conditions for the bicycle road race at the Athens Olympics in 2004? Searing heat had competitors dropping like flies as the riders wound their way through Athens for over five and a half hours. But current opinion from teams who have scoped the course that riders will face Beijing this summerat the 2008 Summer Olympic Games is that the Beijing route will make Athens seem like a cakewalk, as it is widely considered one of the most challenging in Olympic history.

The course starts at Yongdingmen Gate near the Forbidden City and then heads through Beijing to the Great Wall of China. During the first, flat 80km, racers pass the Temple of Heaven, Tiananmen Square, Yonghegong Palace, and Temple of Earth Park. Near the Great Wall, racers enter the circuit segment of the course, and this is where the serious hills begin. Male riders are slated to complete seven laps of a 24km circuit that climbs 520m per lap. Following completion of the circuit, the race ends in Juyongguan at the Great Wall.

Comparable to a mountain stage of the Tour de France, the Beijing course will favor climbers much more than sprinters, and the continual up-and-down of the circuit phase of the race is where the medalists will be made.

"It goes up, goes up some more and comes down then you go up again," said Australian Cadel Evans (second in the 2007 Tour de France, and an early medalist favorite) after the race. "It's ten kilometres of climbing with some steep sections in it and not much recovery and then one big long downhill but even then it was a headwind all the way down and not so easy." 

The distance and hilliness of the course, coupled with Beijing's dirty air and heavy summertime humidity, will make this a race of attrition as much as anything

===========

On an unrelated note, do these guys freak you out like they do me?


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

Creakyknees said:


> from about.com
> 
> Profile of the Olympic Road Bike Race Course
> By David Fiedler, About.com
> ...


Ok, so a hilly classic, like say Liege Bastogne Liege. Yea, Valverde in a romp.


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## Tugboat (Jul 17, 2006)

7 x 520m is a hell of a lot of climbing. Going to be one of the strong climbers that wins. I'm picking Valverde.


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

Devolder.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

I'll go with Freire. He's proven this tour that he's really a climber in disguise. In the best shape he's ever been and will have the motivation to knock out another win.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

moabbiker said:


> I'll go with Freire. He's proven this tour that he's really a climber in disguise. In the best shape he's ever been and will have the motivation to knock out another win.


That would be cool, but I'd rather see him take his 4th WC. This course sounds a bit too hard though. 520m climb is pretty stout, and doing it 7 times, with each time getting presumably faster as attacks and chases go... I'm not sure Freire can respond that many times on those climbs. It's definitely a Bettini / Valverde / Cunego / Frank Schleck type of race. Think guys who do well in Amstel, LBL.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Here is a link to the profile on Cyclingnews http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/olympics08/?id=stages/road_race

If I'm reading it right, it looks like a steady climb of about 400M of climbing over <10K on each lap. A short second peak before the descent. And a slight uphill finish. 

You have to like Bettini for this profile. Valverde, too, if he's on. The challenge for them is that it's a pretty tough climb, done seven times, so...

I think you have to look at climbers. Contador is downplaying his chances, but why not him? 

The American team, Leipheimer, Hincapie, Zabriskie, McCartney, Vande Velde, would seem to have fighter's chance, IMO. Those guys can all climb at pace for a long time. It seems like they could hold together as well as any team, right to the end. Of course, it begs the question as to who would ride for whom. Who is the DS for the US team?

JSR


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

Thanks for posting the profile JSR. I knew it was hilly, but not that hilly. 7 x 10k at 4.5%! 

I have to agree that Contador will figure in this, which makes me wonder, who is Espana riding for?


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

*Cunego*

Cunego. He had a horrible TdF and has a lot to prove -- the perennial come-back kid will do it again. The course suits him and the _Squadra Azzure _will be built around him. I picked him as the winner for Amstel Gold and he will come through again.


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## DASS (Apr 3, 2002)

*hilly!*

Whoah, that profile is ridiculous! I'll take Levi since its all punchy climbs. 7 x 1,500 foot climbs! That's over 10,000 of climbing in smoggy humid heat. Yuck! Levi, maybe Contador. Depends who does better in heat and pollution.

Not sure who's doing exactly, but anyone who's fresh and can climb all day, like Kohl, Schumacher, VDV, Andy Schleck...


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Hot and smoggy. Circuits around a big hill. Most of the usual suspects just finished the Tour. Kind of like.... Athens. Hmmm.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

fornaca68 said:


> Cunego. He had a horrible TdF and has a lot to prove -- the perennial come-back kid will do it again. The course suits him and the _Squadra Azzure _will be built around him. I picked him as the winner for Amstel Gold and he will come through again.


Why him instead of Bettini?


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## Guest (Jul 29, 2008)

It looks like the race will be determined on the last climb, since (duh) it's downhill after that without a real sprint at the end. So, who can explode on the last climb...

Andy Shleck, with a Frank and Kim to keep him out of the wind.
Contrador, with his pick from the spanish armada.

I don't really know - we need to see the teams and the captains.


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## nealrab (Aug 6, 2002)

*Speaking of this...*

anyone know about FULL coverage of this Aug 9th race somewhere??? The TT I think is slated for Aug 13th...where can we get coverage of these??? Pay or free service??? Thanks in advance...


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

AJL said:


> It looks like the race will be determined on the last climb, since (duh) it's downhill after that without a real sprint at the end. So, who can explode on the last climb....


Not exactly - look at the profile closely, the finish is uphill after the descent.

Kind of like the World's courses for the past 2 years.... hmmmm.


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## funknuggets (Feb 4, 2004)

Um, Contador not taken... Ill take him.


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## zphogan (Jan 27, 2007)

funknuggets said:


> Um, Contador not taken... Ill take him.


ditto.

Gold- Contador
Silver- Valverde
Bronze- F. Schleck


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## Guest (Jul 30, 2008)

Creakyknees said:


> Not exactly - look at the profile closely, the finish is uphill after the descent.


It's tough to tell how long that last uphill section is given the scale of the profile. If it's not very long, then the climb will determine the winner, since there are not many super fast decenders out there. If that section is is several kilometers - then it's a different game.


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## Tugboat (Jul 17, 2006)

Pablo said:


> Devolder.


Not in the team anymore. He pulled out of the Olympic team to "concentrate fully on the Tour".

... and that didn't work out too well for him.


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

O'Grady


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

nealrab said:


> anyone know about FULL coverage of this Aug 9th race somewhere??? The TT I think is slated for Aug 13th...where can we get coverage of these??? Pay or free service??? Thanks in advance...


Good question. I checked the Olympic coverage on NBC's site and they only give 30 minutes of clip time to this event. Sigh. Where are all the Versus haters now?


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Will NBC show the mojito commercial? I'm having withdrawal symptoms. Shake it honey!


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## Guest (Jul 30, 2008)

moabbiker said:


> Good question. I checked the Olympic coverage on NBC's site and they only give 30 minutes of clip time to this event. Sigh. Where are all the Versus haters now?


30 minutes! Sheeesh. And curling at the winter games got a bazillion hours of air time - and my oh my, was that action intense or what 

No disrespect to curling fans mind you...


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## crumjack (Sep 11, 2005)

That Al Contador guy might have some luck as others have mentioned. 

Maybe we can get an Asian inspired John Tesh soundtrack during our 30 minute break from the swimming, I mean, Olympic games...


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## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

30 minutes. Seriously?


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## hobie1 (May 7, 2008)

I'm also for Valverde. 

Does anyone know what bikes they will be riding? One sponsor for the whole Spanish or Aussie team?


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## Tugboat (Jul 17, 2006)

hobie1 said:


> I'm also for Valverde.
> 
> Does anyone know what bikes they will be riding? One sponsor for the whole Spanish or Aussie team?


Their usual pro-team bikes.


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## hobie1 (May 7, 2008)

So the Spanish team will have different bikes? Pinarello for Valverde, Cervelo for Sastre, etc.?


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

crumjack said:


> That Al Contador guy might have some luck as others have mentioned.
> 
> Maybe we can get an Asian inspired John Tesh soundtrack during our 30 minute break from the swimming, I mean, Olympic games...



Personally, I can't wait for the artistic shots of the peloton spinning past the Forbidden City, with the Asian-inspired Tesh music in the background. Figure on a 3:1 ratio of shots like this versus shots of actual racing/attacks/important moments in the race.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

if they get the French director in charge of the Tour production, expect it to be 10:1.


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## jsedlak (Jun 17, 2008)

Tugboat said:


> Their usual pro-team bikes.


Off topic, but what would happen if they joined a team and didn't like the bike? Could they go get a different brand, or what?


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## Guest (Aug 1, 2008)

jsedlak said:


> Off topic, but what would happen if they joined a team and didn't like the bike? Could they go get a different brand, or what?


 They ride their pro bikes thousands of miles a year - a new bike would have very different handling and wouldn't be worth the risk, IMHO.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

their contract with their team ties them into the team bikes.


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## The Sundance Kid (Oct 2, 2007)

JSR said:


> Here is a link to the profile on Cyclingnews http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/olympics08/?id=stages/road_race
> 
> If I'm reading it right, it looks like a steady climb of about 400M of climbing over <10K on each lap. A short second peak before the descent. And a slight uphill finish.
> 
> ...


Contador will work for Valverde (and rightly so). The Yanks have no shot. Take a look at those names and check for the best they've ever done in the Ardennes classics or a hillier world champs race. Riding tempo up a climb in the Tour is one thing, but climbing with the best and then winning a small group sprint is another thing. Best US medal hope is Jill Kitner in womens BMX. Maybe something from the track events. I'll be pulling for Vandevelde et al, but I don't like their chances. Is NBC showing any of the track racing. I'd love to see how Cav does against the world's fastest on the track.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

The Sundance Kid said:


> The Yanks have no shot.


I'm sure you're right, and I'm probably just being a "homer", but I'm sticking by my analysis. Here's why:

This is Levi, Lance, and Santiago Botero on the Cote du Domancy in the Dauphine' in 2005. This was the last stage and they went around seven times on the old World Champs course in Sallanches. Popovych and Hincapie were off the front, while these three rode everyone off their wheels. Popo and Goerge stayed away, Lance third in a sprint.

View attachment 134479


The profile for that stage can be found here (couldn't link it). http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/jun05/dauphinelibere05/?id=stages/dauphinelibere057

It is a very similar pitch to the Beijing profile, although Beijing gains more over a longer stretch each time around. (And yes I know the situations are very different, but there you have it.)

I dunno. If any one of the Americans could get in the right break they'd have a chance, IMHO. 

Hopes springs eternal for the Good Ol' USofA!


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## Tugboat (Jul 17, 2006)

The Sundance Kid said:


> Is NBC showing any of the track racing. I'd love to see how Cav does against the world's fastest on the track.


As the current world champion (with Wiggins) in the madison, I'd say that Cav is already one of the world's fastest on the track.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Well some good news update on watching the road race live: Seems that we US residents may be able to watch the road race live online streaming after all, through NBC's online link. Apparently, the "less popular" events are to be streamed live online! A whole 6.5 hour block set aside, YAY. 

Starts 8/8 8:00pm Pacific. Link

As has been mentioned, don't even bother watching the next day's taped replay coverage on TV, as it's guaranteed to be awful.

Also, looks like it might be Craig Hummer and Paul Sherwin as the main announcers!


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

JSR said:


> Who is the DS for the US team?


Apparently it's Jim Ochowicz.


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

The Sundance Kid said:


> Contador will work for Valverde (and rightly so). The Yanks have no shot. Take a look at those names and check for the best they've ever done in the Ardennes classics or a hillier world champs race. Riding tempo up a climb in the Tour is one thing, but climbing with the best and then winning a small group sprint is another thing. * Best US medal hope is Jill Kitner in womens BMX. Maybe something from the track events. I'll be pulling for Vandevelde et al, but I don't like their chances. * Is NBC showing any of the track racing. I'd love to see how Cav does against the world's fastest on the track.


US medal chances: 

Levi and Z have an outside medal hope in men's TT, that just got a little better with the absence of Evans. Sarah Hammer is a prohibitive medal favorite in the individual pursuit. Jennie Reed is a prohibitive medal favorite in the match sprint, and the keirin if she gets a start there. Taylor Phinney has an outside chance at a medal in individual pursuit. 
Donny Robinson is a prohibitive gold medal favorite in men's BMX, and Kyle Bennett should be in the mix as well.. Kintner has a shot as well. I think Kristin Armstrong and Amber Neben have a better chance of doing well in the road race than any of the US men's contingent.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

if USA does not clean up in BMX, then I'll know for sure that I'm in the wrong universe.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

harlond said:


> Why him instead of Bettini?


Bettini has nothing to prove and is getting long in the tooth. Cunego wants to desperately erase from his memory his three-week nightmare in July.


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## roadie92 (Jan 21, 2008)

Have to go with Bettini, he has not done much this year so should be fresh for this.


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## The Sundance Kid (Oct 2, 2007)

Setting up Lance for the sprint win doesn't mean you can do it yourself. Winning on the last day of a stage race is different from winning a classic/world champs medal/olympic medal.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

The Sundance Kid said:


> Setting up Lance for the sprint win doesn't mean you can do it yourself. Winning on the last day of a stage race is different from winning a classic/world champs medal/olympic medal.


Fair enough, but just to be clear, what I saw was George off the front, winning the stage, and Levi a minute back with Lance and Botero hammering everyone else off there wheels.

It definitely was NOT a big one-day race. 

JSR


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Cunego has withdrawn from the Olympic team, according to CN.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Freire will win. He shouldn't be able to but he will.


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## The Sundance Kid (Oct 2, 2007)

Tugboat said:


> As the current world champion (with Wiggins) in the madison, I'd say that Cav is already one of the world's fastest on the track.


He damn well is, I just only get to see it on TV every four years. Track lends itself very well to TV and I am pumped to get to see it.


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## The Sundance Kid (Oct 2, 2007)

nevermind


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

The Sundance Kid said:


> I agree Cunego is a great darkhorse pick. I don't know how technical the circuit is, but Cunego is miles ahead of the average grand tour GC guy as far as bike handling. Bettini is too old. The Italians would be wise to talk up Bettini and then work for Cunego. Spain is stacked. They have a lot of cards to play.



Cunego has pulled out following San Sebastien, citing lingering concerns from his TdF crash. Still, I think you could substitute Rebellin for Cunego in your post and still be correct. 

Contador has announced he is focused more on the TT, and will ride for Valverde. That will make V very hard to beat, I would think. 

Current start list here.

EDIT: sorry, Sundance, quoted you before you edited your post.


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## Kestreljr (Jan 10, 2007)

jsedlak said:


> Off topic, but what would happen if they joined a team and didn't like the bike? Could they go get a different brand, or what?


Sometimes riders have customs bikes made for them- or they rip the stickers off another brand and put the sponsors stickers on the bike. But, I think you have to have a pretty good reason to do this, more then just "I don't like the feel of sponsor X's bike".


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## California L33 (Jan 20, 2006)

stevesbike said:


> "Am I the only one who got a chuckle out of the fact that a guy with the last name Kohl was a chimney sweep?"
> 
> don't forget to his friends he's probably bernie kohl...


Yup, saw photo's of Bejing's sky today. I think the odds are with the chimney sweep for sure  

Olympic games or not, I wouldn't blame anyone for pulling out for their health. It's one thing to run a hundred meters in that filth, but a bike road race or marathon? Come on.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Nobody going for Schumacher ? He'll be interesting to keep an eye on, for sure.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

After San Sebastian you have to say it's down to those guys who finished in the break. 

1 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 5.29.11 (43.562 km/h)
2 Alexandr Kolobnev (Rus) Team CSC-Saxo Bank 
3 Davide Rebellin (Ita) Gerolsteiner 
4 Paolo Bettini (Ita) Quick Step 
5 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Liquigas 
6 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 
7 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 
8 Stéphane Goubert (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 
9 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0.02
10 David Moncoutié (Fra) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone

Zubeldia didn't make the Beijing trip, not sure who else isn't going.


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

Which climbers come form the most polluted countries? They have an advantage. Eastern Europeans maybe?


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## SlowBikeRacer (Nov 7, 2005)

I think Evans will be 4th place.


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

Creakyknees said:


> After San Sebastian you have to say it's down to those guys who finished in the break.
> 
> 1 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 5.29.11 (43.562 km/h)
> 2 Alexandr Kolobnev (Rus) Team CSC-Saxo Bank
> ...


Riders in red won't be in Beijing. 

This is starting to look more and more like a Italy-Spain showdown. Maybe the Vladimir's (Efimkin, Karpets) can keep Menchov in the mix as well.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

justinb said:


> Riders in red won't be in Beijing.
> 
> This is starting to look more and more like a Italy-Spain showdown. Maybe the Vladimir's (Efimkin, Karpets) can keep Menchov in the mix as well.


The Russians should ride well, Karpets appears on form so he might be their leader rather than Menchov?

Germans should be in the mix for Schumacher.

Also Lux for Kirchen since the two Schlecks will be there to work for him.

Should be very tactical given the small team numbers, the main protagonists will have to be very judicial with when and how they use up their team mates.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

*Compared to 1980*

I couldn’t find a profile for the 1980’s course in Sallanches, which has been referred to as one of the hardest. How does this week’s RR course measure up to 1980’s?


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## Sprocket - Matt (Sep 13, 2005)

Creakyknees said:


> if USA does not clean up in BMX, then I'll know for sure that I'm in the wrong universe.


Careful Creaky... The Aussie's have an AMAZING amount of talent in the BMX world...
I'm hoping that the US takes it too, but I"m just saying.


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## cocoboots (Apr 13, 2006)

cunego for the gold in RR

Sprocket-matt is right. Aussies have had some great BMX, DS riders for years

Aussies and USA split BMX medals.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

The Moontrane said:


> I couldn’t find a profile for the 1980’s course in Sallanches, which has been referred to as one of the hardest. How does this week’s RR course measure up to 1980’s?


This is from the Dauphine' at Sallanches, meant to replicate the World's course. I'd think the meaningful part is exactly the same as the World's course.

JSR

edit: oops http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/jun05/dauphinelibere05/?id=stages/dauphinelibere057


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

*Link?*



JSR said:


> This is from the Dauphine' at Sallanches, meant to replicate the World's course. I'd think the meaningful part is exactly the same as the World's course.
> 
> JSR


l think you are referring to a link...?


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## Bertrand (Feb 1, 2005)

Gotta be Sven Tuft.


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## hooligan (Sep 30, 2006)

Bertrand said:


> Gotta be Svein Tuft.


werd my Canadian homie

a medal would be nice from him or ryder or micheal


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

The Moontrane said:


> l think you are referring to a link...?


Oops. http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/jun05/dauphinelibere05/?id=stages/dauphinelibere057


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

I just can't get over Spain's lineup for the race ...


> Alberto Contador (Spain)
> Oscar Freire (Spain)
> Samuel Sánchez (Spain)
> Carlos Sastre (Spain)
> Alejandro Valverde (Spain)


How can they lose with that lineup?


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## Dr_John (Oct 11, 2005)

> Have to go with Bettini, he has not done much this year so should be fresh for this.


Yeah, I saw a photo of his arrival in China. He's as lean as I've seen him for awhile, so I suspect he's more than ready.


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## pomole (Aug 26, 2003)

geez, i dont know how the team tactics go in the olympics, but here are my guesses based on country. i think this one is coming down to a sprint. 

1. kim kirchen/luxembourg: there are only 3 guys from Lux but boy are they good. Kirchen is strong and can handle the hills. schleck's karma is in the right place too.
2. schumacher/germany: if he can pass the dope tests. the germans have a really strong team. I would say voigt has a chance too.
3. rebellin italy: i havent seen bettini race smart once this season. however rebellin had a nice early season and this race smells like a classic.


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## jhamlin38 (Oct 29, 2005)

It is looking like a fantastic race and seems like tons of climbing, if I'm not mistaken, far more than an LBL, MSR, Lobardia. Probably more like a spanish classic. I'm gonna have to go with Contador. Is the profile inclusive of a 12-14km climb done several times? Seems as If spain can controll the peleton, contador has a real good shot if he's in good form.


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## Sprocket - Matt (Sep 13, 2005)

Win, lose or draw... If Big George Hincapie is there (which he is)...
That's who I'm routing for... he might not have a chance, but I don't care... Love that guy!!!

Bettini should be fairly fresh, and looking for the repeat, so that's not a bad pick.
Ryder (even if he's Canadian) is racing for the Garmin team, so a medal would do wonders for them too.


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