# What are the handicaps for top contenders for the 41k ITT



## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Based on past performances, who is the top time trialist in this crop of contenders for the GC. How many seconds/minutes are the others likely to concede?

This is usually a good reference point of how much gaps need to be earned in the mountains to secure their positions given the time trial. This ITT seems really short and hilly actually.
https://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/stage-20
<img src="https://cdn.media.cyclingnews.com/2011/07/01/1/tdf2011_20sp.jpg">

558 meter climb or 1800 foot climb. Is that right?

Current GC for reference:
1	Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar	55:49:57 
2	Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek	0:01:49 
3	Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team	0:02:06 
4	Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek	0:02:17 
5	Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale	0:03:16 
6	Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD	0:03:22 
7	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard	0:04:00 
8	Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi	0:04:11 
9	Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto	0:04:35 
10	Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 
11	Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale	0:04:57 
12	Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team	0:05:07 
13	Arnold Jeannesson (Fra) FDJ	0:05:50 
14	Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad	0:06:03 
15	Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) Team RadioShack	0:07:17 
16	Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne	0:07:27 
17	Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team RadioShack	0:07:51 
18	Rigoberto Uran Uran (Col) Sky Procycling	0:07:55 
19	Jean-Christophe Peraud (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale	0:08:20 
20	Vladimir Gusev (Rus) Katusha Team	0:08:44


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Thanks françois! I was looking over the profile of the parcours over at the official tdf site and noticed it isn't the pancake flat of yesteryears... 

It's going to be answering a few questions for me!


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

I think the Schlecks and Basso need about 3 minutes or more of buffer on Contador and Evans. Jens Voigt agrees with me for the Shlecks...


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

ColdRider said:


> Thanks françois! I was looking over the profile of the parcours over at the official tdf site and noticed it isn't the pancake flat of yesteryears...
> 
> It's going to be answering a few questions for me!


I think Evans and Contador (if healthy and motivated to go for it full-blown) are normally top GC guys, and are about equal. (Levi and Toni Martin are no longer serious GC threats)

I think (*healthy, motivated and in yellow/starting last) Andy Schleck will need a buffer of about 1:30-2:00, and Basso about 45s-1 minute to defend the jersey. Frank Schleck will need 2:30 minutes (unless he uses his front belly-mounted camelbak? Then it's 2:25!). Cunego will need 2:30-3 minutes, he is terrible ITT. Sammy Sanchez is actually not a bad time trialist for a tiny guy and may only need about 60 seconds to hold off someone like Evans - he won a few minor ITTs and was about even with Contador last year (even though still conceded more than a minute to Menchov)


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## serpico7 (Jul 11, 2006)

Based on what we're seeing out of Contador this Tour, I don't think his past ITT performance is a reliable guide of how he's going to perform. In other words, I don't think Schlecks or Basso will need as big a gap on Contador as they might have in recent years.

But against Evans, yeah, they'll need a decent sized buffer. So they've got to drop Cadel tomorrow and in the Alps or pray for Cadel to have one of his classic bad days.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

For reference, here are the times for the same stage from the Dauphine

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/criterium-du-dauphine-upt/stage-3/results


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## The Tedinator (Mar 12, 2004)

Here are the Dauphhine TT results from June:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/criterium-du-dauphine-upt/stage-3/results


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Is there an echo in here?

:wink:


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

MattSoutherden said:


> For reference, here are the times for the same stage from the Dauphine
> 
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/criterium-du-dauphine-upt/stage-3/results


Basso losing 6+ minutes (using as tune-up?), Schlecks, Contador not in it. I think last TdF and Giro provide better markers.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Frank Schleck will lose horrible time in the ITT. That's the only real guarantee here.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

So is it safe to say that these are the relative gaps needed for a win vis-à-vis one another? (ie Cunego needs 3:00 over Evans and about 2:30 over Contador for a "win")

1- Evans 0:00
2- Contador +0:00-0:30
3- Basso +0:45-1:00 (+3:00*)
4- Sanchez +1:00 (outside chance)
4- A Schleck +1:00-1:30 (+3:00*)
5- F Schleck +2:30 (+3:00*)
6- Cunego +2:30-3:00

*DG prediction

Evans was 1-1:30 back from guys like Martin (+1:20) and Wiggins (+1:11). +0:20 to Zabriskie. Brajkovic up there (4th) makes me wonder about the parcous tho, how is this guy's TT?

I remember in the 'ole days where Big Mig put in 10mins+ on those crazy-long ITT...


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

The key here is that it is not a 50 mile pancake flat ITT.

It is 28 miles, 2100 feet of climbing. http://races.strava.com/tour-de-france-2011/stage-20/feet

We need the Voeckler 'estimated loss' now too I think.

fc


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

55x11 said:


> Basso losing 6+ minutes (using as tune-up?), Schlecks, Contador not in it. I think last TdF and Giro provide better markers.


I mostly meant as a reference for how different types of rider might fair on the course given the parcours is exactly the same as the Tour ITT.

I think we can ignore Basso's time as he was still recovering from the Etna crash.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

francois said:


> The key here is that it is not a 50 mile pancake flat ITT.
> 
> It is 28 miles, 2100 feet of climbing. http://races.strava.com/tour-de-france-2011/stage-20/feet
> 
> ...


 Looks like he lost 1:58 to Cadel in the Dauphine this year. Same course.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

spookyload said:


> Looks like he lost 1:58 to Cadel in the Dauphine this year. Same course.


This is a good one. Cadel is the best of the contenders so let's put him at 0 seconds.

Cadel - 0.00 seconds
Andy Shleck
Frank Shleck
Alberto Contador
Ivan Basso
Damiano Cunego
Tom Danielson
Thomas Voeckler - +1:58

Wha'ts the time on the others. So it seems like Cadel and Voeckler are almos in a dead heat right now.

fc


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## Cygnus (Nov 26, 2004)

francios (my lord): nice analytical thread on the current status. it helps to understand the strategy of each team and GC rider over the remaining stages. i believe it's too early to give up on andy and frank. 

BTW, you can have all of my little green squares ...if you put an end to the rep madness.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

2010 TDF - With everything on the line last year for Contador and Andy, this is how they did. This was a flattish 52k ITT. They're pretty pathetic.
Results
1	Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank	1:00:56 
2	Tony Martin (Ger) Team HTC - Columbia	0:00:17 
3	Bert Grabsch (Ger) Team HTC - Columbia	0:01:48 
4	Ignatas Konovalovas (Ltu) Cervelo Test Team	0:02:34 
5	David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Transitions	0:03:00 
9	Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team	0:03:33 
29	Juan Antonio Flecha Giannoni (Spa) Sky Professional Cycling Team	0:05:15 
35	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	0:05:43 
36	Dries Devenyns (Bel) Quick Step 
37	Carlos Barredo Llamazales (Spa) Quick Step	0:05:48 
40	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 
41	Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team Radioshack	0:05:59 
44	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:06:14
49	Nicolas Vogondy (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom	0:06:31 
50	Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Quick Step	0:06:38 




Here's the 2011 Dauphne ITT on the thei identical course as 2011 hilly ITT 42k TDF
Results
1	Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad	0:55:27 
2	Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling	0:00:11 
4	David Zabriskie (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo	0:00:58 
6	Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team	0:01:20 
38	Juan Antonio Flecha Giannoni (Spa) Sky Procycling	0:03:15 
40	Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar	0:03:18 
42	Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi	0:03:27 
50	Andrey Kashechkin (Kaz) Lampre - ISD	0:03:44	



I deleted names that are non players. The markers a Tony Martin and Zabriskie, Wiggins. I also just went Top 50 since you know those are the guys that are actually trying to put in a good time.

This data tells me that Contador and Andy Schleck suck at the ITT. Cadel will do well and Voeckler might be decent.

fc


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## Chainstay (Mar 13, 2004)

Voeckler lost 3:18 to Tony Martin in the Dauphine.

Using today's GC and assuming the estimates by ColdRider and assuming nothing else happens in the Tour the result would be roughly like this

Evans wins (hurray!)
Voeckler second at about 1:30
Contador third at about 2:20
Schlecks, Basso and Sanchez all within 10-30 seconds of Contador

Third is really too close to say Contador

There needs to be a lot of attacking by everyone but Evans I would say. Should be fun


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Your data is misleading. Contador definitely doesn't suck at the ITT. He has won plenty of time trials over the years. 

Also, there is not a 558 meter climb on the course. That's the elevation at the top. It's more like a 300 meter climb from the lowest preceding point, and it's fairly gradual.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

mohair_chair said:


> Your data is misleading. Contador definitely doesn't suck at the ITT. He has won plenty of time trials over the years.
> 
> Also, there is not a 558 meter climb on the course. That's the elevation at the top. It's more like a 300 meter climb from the lowest preceding point, and it's fairly gradual.


Give more data then. I'm such googling for dollars. It is likely that Contador and Schleck were cooked from all the climbing.

I got the total climb from Strava:
http://races.strava.com/tour-de-france-2011/stage-20/feet

DISTANCE- 27 mi 
ELEVATION- 2,105 ft 

That's net altitude gain by gps. More altitude gain is better for contador.

Stage 18 is this:
Distance-126 mi 
ELEVATION-18,398 ft

fc


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Yes. The data from last year is a little misleading. As can be comparison of TT performances generally.

Last year, the last ITT was a long flat course, and the wind picked up later in the day. So while the TT riders lower on GC like Cancellara and Martin went off early, the contenders who went later had the strongest headwind. 

If you look at the 2009 ITT, then Contador beat Cancellara. Does that mean we can expect the same in all TTs?

Also, general comparison from TT to TT is tough as anyone who's not a GC contender in the race, or a TT exponent who is after the stage win, will generally just ride easy on the day and save themselves for another day.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Well, I'm not going to detail all the ITT that Contador has won. There are plenty, in big races, against big names. He was also the Spanish Time Trial champion. 

Stage 18 from 2009 is a pretty good data point. It was late in the race and there was a climb in the middle. Contador beat Cancellara that day, which should tell you something about his ITT abilities.

Annecy - Annecy (ITT) 40.5km

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:48:31 
2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:03 
12 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto 0:01:14 
16 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:01:29 
21 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:44 
35 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:34 

Here is the opening ITT from 2009:

Monaco - Monaco (ITT) 15.5km

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank	00:19:32 (47.80km/h)
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	+0:00:18
5 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto	+0:00:23
10 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana	+0:00:40
18 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	+0:01:00
67 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	+0:01:36


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

@ Mohair - In mine/DG projection, we have Contador *almost* equal to Evans in ITTs . Based on your data points, I can see that my/DG projection for A/F Schleck are pretty close. The wildcard/unknown for me is Basso. I know Cunego can't TT to save his life  Contador *can* TT no doubt.

François's 2010 data point puts Contador about where he should be vs ITT monsters on a flat parcours +/- wind situation. He is around Leipheimer time (did they start close to each other?). I remember reading that A Schleck had ridden a good ITT that year.

The 2009 Stage 18 surprised me a bit, then and now. I can't recall if there were "weird" situation. But the opening prologue is where I would see them : Contador/Evan on par/close to each other. Andy/Frank around 1min/10k down.


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## Wildcard (Apr 29, 2011)

I just think it is not as easy as looking at past results.

Evans can time trial but at all previous late time trial in the tour he hasn't preformed, but that doisent mean that if he is in yellow or dam close it wont give him the edge he needs.

Also in the past he hasnt had a team that has look after him this well and this long into a tour in previous years.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Wildcard said:


> I just think it is not as easy as looking at past results.
> 
> Evans can time trial but at all previous late time trial in the tour he hasn't preformed, but that doisent mean that if he is in yellow or dam close it wont give him the edge he needs.
> 
> Also in the past he hasnt had a team that has look after him this well and this long into a tour in previous years.


I agree and I think overall we are not saying "Cadel will put X time because he put X time at such and such event". We are trying to *estimate* how much time gain/lost can be had/expected according to various past events. Just trying to get a ballpark figure on what _could_ be seen. Educated guesstimates if you will 

Recapping / Bumping this up because it looks like this is where all might come down to... The "race of truth". Short version... I think our projection are pretty good, Voeckler is not there but we "could" project him in there if need be... If we follow the 2011 Dauphiné as a good datapoint, the time gaps might be smaller than projected (Evans->Voeckler +1:58)

*55x11 / DG / Coldrider Projection*
1- Evans 0:00
2- Contador +0:00-0:30
3- Basso +0:45-1:00 (+3:00*)
4- Sanchez +1:00 (outside chance)
4- A Schleck +1:00-1:30 (+3:00*)
5- F Schleck +2:30 (+3:00*)
6- Cunego +2:30-3:00

*2011 Dauphiné - Same Course - 42.5km*
Stage 3 - Early in the Dauphiné. Evans was amongst the leaders (ended up 2nd on GC that day) and Voeckler was 15th. Gap is +1:58 // +25s/10km

0- Tony Martin -1:20
0- Wiggins -1:09
0- Zabriskie -0:22
*1-Cadel - 0.00 seconds*
2- Andy Shleck
3- Frank Shleck
4- Alberto Contador
5- Ivan Basso
6- Damiano Cunego
*7- Thomas Voeckler - +1:58*

*2010 TDF - 52k ITT*
Flat ITT - Specialist dream. Early winds? This one was with everything on the line for Alberto (+5:43) and Andy (+6:14). Gap is ~30s : +6s/10km.

Results
1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 1:00:56
2 Tony Martin (Ger) Team HTC - Columbia 0:00:17
5 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Transitions 0:03:00
9 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team 0:03:33
*35 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:05:43*
40 Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
41 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team Radioshack 0:05:59
*44 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:06:14*

*2009 TDF S18 - 40.5km*
Late in the race. Flat parcours with a bump in the middle. Not sure on what the conditions, meteo and race-wise, was. To Contador : Evans +1:14 // +19s/10km. Andy 1:44 // +26s/10km.

*1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:48:31*
2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:03
*12 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto 0:01:14*
16 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:01:29
*21 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:44*
35 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:34 

*2009 Prologue - 15km*
Probably flat TT... To Contador : Evans +0:05 // +3s/10km. Andy +0:42 // +28s/10km.

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 00:19:32 (47.80km/h)
*2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana +0:00:18*
*5 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto +0:00:23*
10 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana +0:00:40
*18 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank +0:01:00*
67 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank +0:01:36


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

ColdRider said:


> I agree and I think overall we are not saying "Cadel will put X time because he put X time at such and such event". We are trying to *estimate* how much time gain/lost can be had/expected according to various past events. Just trying to get a ballpark figure on what _could_ be seen. Educated guesstimates if you will
> 
> Recapping / Bumping this up because it looks like this is where all might come down to... The "race of truth". Short version... I think our projection are pretty good, Voeckler is not there but we "could" project him in there if need be... If we follow the 2011 Dauphiné as a good datapoint, the time gaps might be smaller than projected (Evans->Voeckler +1:58)
> 
> ...


In 2009 final ITT Cadel was way off GC - he was like 30th or something, so it didn't matter. This was the ITT with big hill in the middle that Contador miraculously won over Cancellara. Andy and Frank didn't do so bad - Andy was only 20 sec behind Armstrong.

In 2009 prologue, it was technical, twisty-turny streets on wet roads. A lot of riders took it very conservatively, some crashed. Armstrong and Schlecks took it very "gingerly" around wet corners.


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