# Stage 3 Predictions and Chat



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

yesterday was a pretty exciting stage, with weather, crashes, attacks, punctures, and an anchor protecting his team leader by not helping on a climb and then taking the stage. some "you get the jersey, i take the stage" back scratching.

Stage 3:
https://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2009/feb09/california09/graphics/profile3.gif








cavs?

so today, what will happen? a lot depends on weather and if they cut the time at the entrance to the circuits. there are 50 miles from the zenith of patterson pass to the finishline. i see chipotle trying to work with a few teams and get zabriski over the humps, setting up some ITT. hamilton worked pretty hard yesterday, but flatted. not sure of technical the day's descent is, either. if hincapie makes that break, he will take it. unless jen voigt is there, too...

i go hincapie today.

tomorrow i see landis trying to make a go of it on the hillier stage 4, but the brothers schleck shutting him down. dont be surpised if popo is in the mix, too.


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## bauerb (Jan 18, 2006)

i think we see the sprinters trying to maintain contact over the bumps, then some awesome leadout trains shaping up. GC contenders sit in and just hold steady on the time gaps. sprinter teams will not allow a sprint to not happen today


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## JoelS (Aug 25, 2008)

I don't think a breakaway will happen today, at least not one that lasts. Likely a sprint finish. Then Cav, Boonen, or Hushovd likely.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

I think the GC guys take the day off on this one. It's a shame Sierra Rd. is at the beginning of the stage. It'll allow some KOM breakaway to happen, but there is just too much flat at the end to stay away. I say the sprinters have their day.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

When the map of this stage first came out, I didn't get the point of including Sierra. I still don't. It's a tough climb, 5 miles into the race, which means it will likely be uncontested and completely meaningless. After the past two hard days, I expect the whole race to stay together until the last 100 meters, when whoever is going for the KOM breaks off to snag the points. The descent is also fast and steep, and the hard right turn onto Calaveras Road (transition from steep downhill to steep uphill, aka "the wall") could treacherous. They should have just gone up Calaveras the whole way.


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## majura (Apr 21, 2007)

Maybe an early break an km 0 for KOM contenders and those wanting to keep sponsors happy. Astana will be in control, with the sprinters' teams helping a bit and after the last climb it's going to be Columbia up front then Mr Cavendish will cross the line for a cup of tea.


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

This is a perfect stage for raw power climbers with great breakaway skills. Jens! Judging from his performance at Paris-Nice - Ventoux last year, this would be perfect for him, now if only someone goes along with him to help on the flat section.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

BMC, Columbia, Ouch, Garmin, Astana get into a break. Break gets gobbled up and sprint finish favours Cavendish, Hushovd second, Boonen third.


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## Andrea138 (Mar 10, 2008)

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Cavendish won't maintain contact over the climbs. If his team can get him back on the group before the finish, he's my pick... though otherwise, I'm w/Function... look for the classics guys like Jens.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Freire, unseen until he just comes out of nowhere to win past the expected favorites Cavendish, Boonen, Thor, Chicchi... Probably wont happen but I like when he does that.


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## RkFast (Dec 11, 2004)

And the forecast is for another rainy, cold day. 

This is ridiculous. You cant race in conditions like this day after day. This event have got to be moved to another time of the year.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

Cavendish could stop and have a picnic at the top of the climbs and still have time for his team to get him back into contact (there's over 50 miles of flat to the finish). If a break stays away it will be because it contains no threats and the big teams would rather not contest a sprint if the conditions are wet etc. Yes, the race should be moved to pre-Giro. Lance is already saying this many times and now that ToG is gone there's a spot. Much better time of year, and as LA says could get into the Sierras more for some serious climbing


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Cavendish has said that he is working on his climbing. This stage may give some idea as to his climbing ability this year. If he wants green at Le Tour, he has got to get over the mountains.


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

RkFast said:


> And the forecast is for another rainy, cold day.
> 
> This is ridiculous. You cant race in conditions like this day after day. This event have got to be moved to another time of the year.


I was glad to see Lance Armstrong say something similar yesterday. It's been said in here a few times already over the past year: _*this is the rainy season for California*_. Nobody should be surprised, including the organizers, Versus, the governor, the riders, the visitor's bureau, or California fanboys telling us how beautiful the scenery is there. The ToC lucked out for those first two years but the last two are the norm. There is a great field this year but the Euro teams are going to quickly wise up and stop sending their teams to a sure bone-chilling and risky race. 

The ToC should grab the Tour of Georgia slot in April while they can.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

stevesbike said:


> Cavendish could stop and have a picnic at the top of the climbs and still have time for his team to get him back into contact (there's over 50 miles of flat to the finish). If a break stays away it will be because it contains no threats and the big teams would rather not contest a sprint if the conditions are wet etc. Yes, the race should be moved to pre-Giro. Lance is already saying this many times and now that ToG is gone there's a spot. Much better time of year, and as LA says could get into the Sierras more for some serious climbing



Wasn't part of the problem with the TOG the fact that it was in April. Most of the big Euro teams are deeply settled in for the Euro season. The teams have spent a lot of time and money and effort for the Classics season and are re-grouping for grand tours. I highly doubt they'd want to go through the logistics nightmare of sending a competitive team to California as a tune up for the Giro when there are already tune up races in their own back yard. 

Outside of Euro teams with American interest, who was the biggest Euro squad to do the TOG, Saunier Duval?

I fear the TOC is stuck with where it's at. They could try and move it back a week or two, but then you start moving into Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Euro teams aren't going to move those off of their schedules.


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## TWD (Feb 9, 2004)

moonmoth said:


> The ToC should grab the Tour of Georgia slot in April while they can.


You know, I was thinking the same thing yesterday. From a tourism standpoint, the weather in February isn't doing them any favors. 

Case in point, I was planning on heading down from Oregon to watch the race and get some good training miles in with some "nicer" weather. 

When I saw the forecast for ATOC looked the same as what I see out my window every day I bagged the trip. I've been training in the same crap weather all winter for free, I don't need to go down to California and spend a bunch of money in gas/food/hotels/camping etc..to get rained on some more.


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## kmac (Feb 13, 2007)

Weather update: its still raining. My office is about 5 miles from Sierra Road, so I imagine its raining there too. Another wonderful day at the office for the riders.


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

Ouch. Levi just crashed. Looked as though he just wasn't paying attention for a second and overlapped wheels in front. On a spare bike and getting paced back to the group.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

I want to see an all out fight for the sprinters.. Columbia is starting to pick it up. Pretty much ensuring the break is soon to be caught. I hope! I just wanna see some action!

Levi at least looks ok!


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Ok... so that rosca chick just talked to the Garmin guy... Anyone else want to flick her from the show?

Seriously.. Dumb!


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

ZoSoSwiM said:


> Ok... so that rosca chick just talked to the Garmin guy... Anyone else want to flick her from the show?
> 
> Seriously.. Dumb!


she wasn't as bad today


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

Bad sign for the breakaway. Columbia-High Road moving up to take over the chase. Some QuickStep guys at the front too.
Cervelo up riding for Thor as well.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Looks good to me.. the breakaway looks a little sloppy imo..


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## nrs-air (Jan 23, 2007)

Gap of 2:45 with ~19 miles to go. I think it's gonna be close. Not having versus at school suuuucks.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Versus just dropped coverage for the NHL.. figures..

Oh well.. tour tracker it is..


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## Cat 6 RCR (Jun 2, 2008)

*Curse you Versus*



nrs-air said:


> Gap of 2:45 with ~19 miles to go. I think it's gonna be close. Not having versus at school suuuucks.


Having Versus sucks. They left the race for hockey. :mad2:


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)




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## uno-speedo (Oct 26, 2004)

It only gets better dosen't it


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## frenchyxc (Jul 30, 2008)

the video on versus.com is surprisingly quite good, albeit rather small....

and no every-5-minutes commercial breaks...this might actually be a blessing in disguise


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## uno-speedo (Oct 26, 2004)

True, true.


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

where on the site is it? can't find it. THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Unbelievable....to think that I defended their coverage the other day too.  

tourofcalifornia.com video is also pretty good


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## uno-speedo (Oct 26, 2004)

I take that back.

"Is it Boonen or Bonen"

Commentator sounds REALLY excited.


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## Andrea138 (Mar 10, 2008)

It's good except for the dorky commentators.


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## uno-speedo (Oct 26, 2004)

http://tracker.amgentourofcalifornia.com/

And there is commercials.......arghhhhh


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

Down to 1:35

The peloton's timing this one pretty much right. QS and High Road at the front now.


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## phrisbee (Jul 12, 2007)

Where on versus.com can I see the end of the stage?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Where Is The Link On Vs.com?? I Cant Find It And Tour Tracker Sucks!!!!!


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## Mersault (Jan 3, 2005)

Cat 6 RCR said:


> Having Versus sucks. They left the race for hockey. :mad2:


I was like WTF?, but go to the amgen site to see the race ending live...


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

I couldn't get the versus video to load...go figure.

Use this one: http://tracker.amgentourofcalifornia.com/


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## tristan86 (Oct 7, 2008)

I also can't find it. These commentators on the tour tracker are terrible.


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## frenchyxc (Jul 30, 2008)

should be right on the front page under featured video...just click play on the little menu bar TOC icon thing and itll start


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## Mersault (Jan 3, 2005)

phrisbee said:


> Where on versus.com can I see the end of the stage?


http://tracker.amgentourofcalifornia.com/


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

i can't get it to come up on versus either

I'm using the tracker ^^^


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## Andrea138 (Mar 10, 2008)

They're pedaling in anger now! (Phil would slap these guys silly if he heard their commentating).


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

1 minute gap for those of you who are having trouble loading


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## phrisbee (Jul 12, 2007)

http://www.versus.com/videoPlayer/?catID=453


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

35 second gap, cars have been pulled out behind leaders


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Louder has attacked the lead group and is off the front solo


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Louder and Mollema together and hammering


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## tristan86 (Oct 7, 2008)

phrisbee said:


> http://www.versus.com/videoPlayer/?catID=453



Thanks!


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## uno-speedo (Oct 26, 2004)

This is going to be a good finish!


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

two leaders have about 15 second lead with one circuit lap to go


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

So Close!!!


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Talk about super coordinated! Swept up so close.. great effort in the break!


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Two leaders were just caught


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Cervelo and Quick Step in control


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

All Cervelo at the front now.


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

1km to go and Cervelo still on front


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Thor takes it!!!!!!!!


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Thunder!!

Great leadout for Cervelo!


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

Thor!!!!!


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Hincapie broke off to lead out Cavendish but, Cavendish didn't follow him


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

That was a great leadout by Cervelo, well played.


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## uno-speedo (Oct 26, 2004)

Thor had a huge lead going into the sprint. 4-5 bike lengths.


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Top 5
Hushovd, 
Friere, 
Renshaw
Farrar
Cavendish


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## Andrea138 (Mar 10, 2008)

Nice time for a brain fart, Cav!


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

The overhead view showed how big of a gap Cervelo had before Thor even started. They did a great job!


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

uno-speedo said:


> Thor had a huge lead going into the sprint. 4-5 bike lengths.


Heck yea he did, threw down the hammer hard :thumbsup:


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## T-Doc (Apr 4, 2002)

how could Cav missed Georges lead out...did he just want to stay on Thor? I would have been pissed if I was hincapie


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

Hincapie looked pretty ticked off. I assume Cavendish thought he had a better wheel


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## funktekk (Jul 29, 2006)

I gotta say I am super pissed that versus cut off the coverage, but on the other hand their web viewing is top notch.

Great finish, glad Cervelo got the result.


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

I think that I may just stick with the web coverage for the rest as long as I don't listen to the commentary


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

that was 100% freaking text book lead out, looked like Columbia from last year. Mr Renshaw needs some time in detention, I think he's the one who missed Big George's move!!


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

cbuchanan said:


> I think that I may just stick with the web coverage for the rest as long as I don't listen to the commentary



The sad thing is that Frankie Andreu sounds like a condesending ass for someone who spent time in the sport.


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## B15serv (Apr 27, 2008)

I cannot believe that versus cut the end of the race in favor of a hockey game between two of the worst teams in the NHL. And not even the game but a pregame. Someone at VS. needs to be fired. The worst part is that they have two channels... they could have switched the HD feed to hockey and the stage play out on the regular channel till its over.


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## cbuchanan (Mar 6, 2006)

coop said:


> The sad thing is that Frankie Andreu sounds like a condesending ass for someone who spent time in the sport.


I have had that same feeling for years. I'm actually so used to listening to him ramble that I can tune him out. :lol:


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## ProRoad (Oct 13, 2008)

B15serv said:


> I cannot believe that versus cut the end of the race in favor of a hockey game between two of the worst teams in the NHL. And not even the game but a pregame. Someone at VS. needs to be fired. The worst part is that they have two channels... they could have switched the HD feed to hockey and the stage play out on the regular channel till its over.


agreed!

I was soo pissed yesterday when the recording stopped on two tvs to change to that "holy @$%*" show. I took several hours to come down from that one. Thanks VS.

Brian


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Yea... versus cutting out at the end like that was total BS... they bait us the whole time then drop us.. they went over time the other day without a problem..


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Thor rules. So much for guaranteed Cavendish win. Columbia usually does not get a lead out wrong but that one was laughable...Columbia jerseys parting like the red sea all over the place.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

*Cavendish*



bigmig19 said:


> Thor rules. So much for guaranteed Cavendish win. Columbia usually does not get a lead out wrong but that one was laughable...Columbia jerseys parting like the red sea all over the place.


The way it looked, Hincapie would have been better off trying to take the sprint himself instead of pushing hard to carry out sprinters that weren't paying attention. Cav is fast enough that he still could have been a competitor in that sprint, even with Cervelo's perfectly played lead-out. His acceleration in the last 100 meters is incredible...... I remember him being interviewed earlier in the race and he said "I know I am the fastest; not the best tactically, but I am the fastest". I hadn't seen the tactical weakness before so I didn't know what he was talking about, but that was some serious foreshadowing! Now I know exactly what he meant.


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