# Stage 16: Bagneres-de-Luchon - Pau 199.5km



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

Thomas Voeckler makes it 5 for France! I give the anorexic Robin Williams a hard time for getting into breaks and attacking for what seems like soley camera time. But the Lil Prince did it for France in Stage 15. 

Too bad his win will forever be overshadowed by an attack that was covered by Vino, a slipped chain, and a no-holds-barred counter attack on the maillot jaune while he was experiencing a mechanical incident. The actions of both the attacker and the counter attacker will be debated for days. Weeks even. What we know for a act is the yellow jersey was on one person's back at dawn, and another's at dusk. And that's really all that matters.

In a thread discussing the Andy/Conti tea party events a few days ago, 95zpro said, "We could have the potential to see Andy go from yellow to off the podium if he plays AC's game which appears to be a brilliant strategy! AC to me showed his superiority not by beating Andy but by controlling his actions. Look for Astana to keep pushing the pace and destroying Andy's legs for Saturday." If Andy doesn't make time on Conti, Menchov, and Sanchez, we could be looking at the saddest white jersey wearer Paris has ever seen.

If Thursday's Stage 17 is the Queen stage, Tuesday's Stage 16 is the Princess. Seeing the Tourmalet for the first time this year (yeah, I said first. The tour climbs that col twice this year), it goes Cat1, Cat1, HC, lunch, HC, HC, then basically 60k descent to to sprints and the finishing line. Until the events of Stage 15, most thought the big guns would just stick together (again), have a nice rest day Wednesday, then fire it up for the mountain top finish Thursday. But Andy has "anger in {my} stomach," and revenge on his mind. Some even think Armstrong might work with Schleck to destroy Contador. If that does happen, which would be quite entertaining, in a cat-fight sorta way, I don't think it would go down until Stage 17. LA and the gang work with Saxo, then LA and Andy work together to break Conti. LA gets the stage and Andy gets the time. But Im getting ahead of my tin-foil-hat self. 

Imagine if this race had time bonuses. My money would be on Sammy Sanchez. Heck, with that long dscent my money is still on Sanchez.
Remember during the Giro when people were making fun of Le Tour and its fans? The Tour may not have the sadistic days the Giro did, but this is the best sports soap opera since Shaq asked Kobe how his posterior tasted.
Let's get it on!


----------



## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

I don't think this will be a stage with important time gaps decided. I think Sanchez is a good pick, but Joaquim Rodriguez I think has the best kick of the top climbers in this years Tour. 

This would be a damn hard day for a break to stick, but maybe someone like Gadret, Martinez or Popo will have an inspired day.


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Oh good I was hoping your report/prediction thread was up. I love these (even when you're BBQng/drinking  ) and I thank you for doing them. 

Aubisque tomorrow! I have always wanted to ride that one more than any other and I don't know why.

No predictions from me as I predict I will be wrong. Again.

If either or neither of the two dancing primadonnas win, count me ambivalent. 

Let the carnage ensue!


----------



## Beethoven (Jul 28, 2005)

One of my more pathetic memories of the Pyrenees is trying to climb the Aubisque but being "refudiated" by the Soulor -- that climb is nasty long and nasty steep. The Aubisque from there seemed not that hard.
The descent is too long for long break to stick, I agree. I thinking Hushovd.


----------



## yater (Nov 30, 2006)

Andy Schleck.


----------



## Geoffersonspin (Feb 12, 2010)

Carlos Sastre! 

Side note: Just looking at the profile nearly rips my legs off.


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Beethoven said:


> One of my more pathetic memories of the Pyrenees is trying to climb the Aubisque but being "refudiated" by the Soulor -- that climb is nasty long and nasty steep. The Aubisque from there seemed not that hard.
> The descent is too long for long break to stick, I agree. I thinking Hushovd.



Lucky you! What a great climb. Btw I've always of Soulor/Aubisque as one mountain, or, the Aubisque as the "kiss" to its cousin Soulor. Kiss of death maybe but whatever.  

Nighty night all. Fun starts @ 3:30 AM here on the west coast. Time to program the coffee pot...


----------



## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

I'm having fun picking long shots. Chris Horner.


----------



## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

Going out on a limb...Cav will not win!


----------



## Mordy (Aug 30, 2006)

A long break will have a chance to stick if there are enough people in it, but the GC guys are going to hit it too hard. The early climbs will keep the sprinters out of it. I am guessing a fairly large group will be sprinting for it.


----------



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*only a young man*

only a young man could do something as unlikely as ride hard over this sawtooth stage.
p1$sed off would help, too.

AS.

or a young man not in contention shooting for a stage win. I cannot come up with a scenario for LA winning this stage, unles the CIA, the Muslim Brotherhood, and UFOs are involved, and WADA turns its head for a moment.


----------



## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Don't think we'll see too much fireworks here. It's a long long way after the end of the final climb, even after the downhill mountain run. We'll probably see the primo GC contenders bunched together and it comes to a sprint or late solo attack. I'll go for Vino.


----------



## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I think Sammy Sanchez will take this one. He needs to put time into Menchov and this is probably his last, best chance.


----------



## rogger (Aug 19, 2005)

Schleck will show up on a fixie. No more dropped chains for Andy!


----------



## JohnHemlock (Jul 15, 2006)

Lance. Vino, and Horner are in the break, should be good today.


----------



## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Phil,Paul and Bobke are starting the broadcast day with a pretty good argument.


----------



## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Look at Lance go


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Oh gawld. Casar and LA together off the front = PhilippeC's worst nightmare. 


Andy's stunt at the start line...roll-eyes.


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

jd3 said:


> Phil,Paul and Bobke are starting the broadcast day with a pretty good argument.



Missed it. I kept hitting the snooze button in my sleep. Have coffee. It's all good now.


----------



## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Lance is giving P&P lots to talk about.


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

jd3 said:


> Lance is giving P&P lots to talk about.



Yawn. I still like to watch the old effer ride (when he's actually on the bike instead of under it)... but I wish Casar had been able to hang on.


----------



## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

JohnHemlock said:


> Lance. Vino, and Horner are in the break, should be good today.


Horner will keep the break from getting some insane lead, given his time gap to the leaders. That means better racing, imo.

Reading the commentary on live coverage, plus seeing the later action, Lance looks like he is riding to win today. I wouldn't put money on it, but at least he is going for it.


----------



## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

this is a day for sprinters.


----------



## penn_rider (Jul 11, 2009)

This group may have a chance,, depends on gap and how many are left over the top...


----------



## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

asciibaron said:


> this is a day for sprinters.



After 2 HC climbs?


----------



## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

Marc said:


> After 2 HC climbs?


my point exactly.


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Hmmm. Just pondering if Saxo (Andy) will rue the day they didn't put more pressure on Sanchez on the Aspin if he truly was in trouble and shake out the peloton a bit . 

Could conceivably be a mistake that knocks Andy off the podium in the final analysis.


----------



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Can 10 minutes get swallowed up in 35 miles of downhill?*

Can 10 minutes get swallowed up in 35 miles of downhill?

I think the breakaway has critical mass to remain in front.


----------



## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

PJay said:


> Can 10 minutes get swallowed up in 35 miles of downhill?
> 
> I think the breakaway has critical mass to remain in front.


My winner pick of Chris Horner is not looking so wild now.


----------



## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

PJay said:


> Can 10 minutes get swallowed up in 35 miles of downhill?
> 
> I think the breakaway has critical mass to remain in front.


I think they are goney, unless Cavendish suddenly appears and crashes everyone in the break...


----------



## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Andy's stunt at the start line...roll-eyes.


enlighten us?


The break will look silly if Barredo keeps away.


----------



## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

Well, this was unexpected. And sad all at the same time.


----------



## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Sojourneyman said:


> The break will look silly if Barredo keeps away.



The break is full of old dudes, who know what they are doing. They look to be measuring things to keep from allowing early counter attacks.


----------



## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Sojourneyman said:


> enlighten us?
> 
> 
> The break will look silly if Barredo keeps away.


Caught within sight of it.


----------



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*i think i saw LA chain hop. Fedrigo should have waited.*

in that final dash, i think i saw LA chain hop. Fedrigo should have waited.

either way: not a bad job for a 38-year-old. goodnite, LA.


----------



## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

culdeus said:


> Well, this was unexpected. And sad all at the same time.



Nah, that's racing, and it was a heck of a good stage and finish. Lance picked the wrong wheel to follow (which made sense to follow) at the end to really have a chance, and went a bit too early, imo. Given his legs seemed a bit weak, so every single thing would have had to go right for him to be

GREAT day for Horner!


----------



## Oracle7775 (Sep 16, 2009)

So, was that LA's best try for a stage win, or just a tuneup for LA's real bid for a stage Thursday on the Tourmelet?

Regardless, with two riders in the break, it was a good day for Radioshack in the team standings.


----------



## LWP (Jun 6, 2006)

dr hoo said:


> Nah, that's racing, and it was a heck of a good stage and finish.


+1... I'm a fan of Lance and would have smiled if he'd managed to take the stage but I'm good with the way it went. Fun racing to watch in that front group. Would have been a boring stage without it.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

Oracle7775 said:


> So, was that LA's best try for a stage win, or just a tuneup for LA's real bid for a stage tomorrow or Thursday on the Tourmelet?
> 
> Regardless, with two riders in the break, it was a good day for Radioshack in the team standings.


Seems to me that if he had the legs to attack on a big climb, he was better off trying it today and using his time trialing skills to take him home. If he couldn't bust that breakaway on the last climb today, I don't see a lot of hope for him to bust the GC leaders Thursday on the uphill finish.

He has done amazing things before, though.

The late-30s guy I'm really impressed with in this Tour is Moreau, actually. I'd love to see him take the KOM.


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

jptaylorsg said:


> *The late-30s guy I'm really impressed with in this Tour is Moreau, actually. I'd love to see him take the KOM*.



It was fun to see the two oldest, shriveled prunes ride into Pau in the same group. :thumbsup: 

Good stuff.


And kudos to Thor. Back in green.


----------



## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

i told you the sprinter would win.


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Sojourneyman said:


> *enlighten us?*
> 
> The break will look silly if Barredo keeps away.



Seems he chose to "protest" his return to the white jersey by going to the back of the peloton before the start, instead of lining up with all the other jersey leaders.

It's over and done. It's time to move on with the race.


----------



## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

jptaylorsg said:


> The late-30s guy I'm really impressed with in this Tour is Moreau, actually. I'd love to see him take the KOM.



That will be something to watch on Thursday for sure. Among other things.


----------



## tron (Jul 18, 2004)

what was horner/lance's plan at the end? Seems like they should have worked together for something but both ended up doing half-assed sprints. It looked like horner was boxed in and lance just did not have it.


----------



## paredown (Oct 18, 2006)

Sojourneyman said:


> enlighten us?


OEH is referring to Andy lining up at the back of the peloton on the roll out, instead of the front row with the other jersey wearers...


----------



## paredown (Oct 18, 2006)

Maybe Horner was hoping to come off Moreau's wheel and get the win?

Someone else on the "final kilometer" thread points out that from the overhead shot, you can also see Lance choosing the wrong wheel/going the wrong direction

As LA said post race, "It's a long time since I've had to sprint."


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

paredown said:


> Maybe Horner was hoping to come off Moreau's wheel and get the win?
> 
> Someone else on the "final kilometer" thread points out that from the overhead shot, you can also see Lance choosing the wrong wheel/going the wrong direction
> 
> *As LA said post race, "It's a long time since I've had to sprint*."



Wasn't the last time coming in with Kloden, Jan, and Landis? I didn't see how he was going to pull it off today. Good ride by all those guys though. Without them it may have been another episode of the Afternoon Tea with Bert and Andy Show. And some nice scenery.

The only interesting thing going on in the peloton itself, was trying to figure out which of Cont's frontmen have better race-faces...those guys are great!

I liked LA's post-race interview. Quite...pensive, a bit nostalgic but at the same time glad to hang up the "Lance Hat" at the end of this Tour. Wish I could've been there to see the last hurrah. Would've been great. He's got other things to worry about now...yoiks.


----------

