# Wiggo changed his mind !



## superg (May 9, 2010)

Apparently BW is going to the next TdF to defend this year's victory now. I bet Chris Froome isn't too happy about that, and the same goes for Dave Brailsford.
I would love to know what made BW change his mind.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

superg said:


> Apparently BW is going to the next TdF to defend this year's victory now. I bet Chris Froome isn't too happy about that, and the same goes for Dave Brailsford.
> I would love to know what made BW change his mind.


No way Brailsford wasn't already aware and part of the decision IMO. Froome has to be disappointed and/or upset, but they will probably sell it as two supported captains going from Team Sky. They probably plan to let the race dictate who is the final protected rider in the end. Froome get a couple of riders to support him and so will Wiggins (but who gets which riders is going to be where the real battle begins). This has to be the kind of stuff that drove Cavendish bonkers and led to his leaving to join OPQS.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

Makes sense. I think the 2013 TDF route is reasonably good for Wiggins. He'll be able to diesel up almost every climb and likely limit his losses to Contador. Attempt to take back big time in the TTT and ITT. Not as favorable as this year, but hands down better than either the Giro or Vuelta. Even a mild Giro or Vuelta is going to have ramps much steeper than Wiggins is suited for.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

I thought the Giro was more TT friendly, or at least on paper and according to previous reports.

Between Froome always playing 2nd fiddle and higher odds of Contador racing the TdF, I would have thought shooting for the Giro would have been a safer bet. I'm not a Contador fanboy, but I think any GT will be a race for 2nd place if he's there.


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## phoehn9111 (May 11, 2005)

bad form, bad for the team, Wiggo is a loose cannon. This could
easily get out of hand and cause sky to self destruct.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

phoehn9111 said:


> bad form, bad for the team, Wiggo is a loose cannon. This could
> easily get out of hand and cause sky to self destruct.


Agreed that it's bad form, but as team captain and reigning TdF champion - Wiggo can do as he pleases and Froome will just have to smile and say "Yes,Sir!". 

Brings to mind the Lance and Conti shoot-out - which added tons of drama to that race. 

Question - does Froome have the cujones (<-sp.?) to go Conti on Wiggo? If he does, that will be a dominant sub-polt to what is already, on paper at least, looking to be a good TdF.

But as Spade points out, however it shakes loose, the probability that an on-form Conti wins this one is very high (about as close to guarenteed as you can get), but to see how he does it against what is argueably one of the strongest fields in years on a very tough TdF course, will be exciting to watch.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

LostViking said:


> Agreed that it's bad form, but as team captain and reigning TdF champion - Wiggo can do as he pleases and Froome will just have to smile and say "Yes,Sir!".
> 
> Brings to mind the Lance and Conti shoot-out - which added tons of drama to that race.
> 
> ...


My understanding from what I've read thus far is that Froome will have license to also ride for himself as a sort of co-captain at the TdF. Both will be protected riders with some level of support. Now, I'm not convinced that is going to work well at all, nor am I convinced that Froome will get teh same level of support as Wiggins (the defending champ) will get. It sounds like a big mess waiting to happen to me.

Bradley Wiggins wants to defend next Tour de France despite Chris Froome being Team Sky's lead man | Mail Online


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

1-Contador is going to be super motivated. Wiggo might finish ahead of Froome but he won't win.
2-If Wiggins rides the Giro he is going to be too tired to win the Tour or beat a well rested Froome.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

The interesting variable is that it's unknown which grand tour(s) that Saxo will be invited to. Very difficult for Sky to plan around that.


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## Alaska Mike (Sep 28, 2008)

Saxo is a WorldTour team. They automatically get the invite. The real question is which Grand Tours Contador decides to ride.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Alaska Mike said:


> Saxo is a WorldTour team. They automatically get the invite. The real question is which Grand Tours Contador decides to ride.


+1 If Conti rides, chances are Conti wins.

If Wiggo and Froome fight it out on the roads of France - does that help Sky or hurt it? One of them has to jump out to a big lead at the start so the other has no choice but to ride for the leader on the road. If this does not occur quickly and Sky has clarity on who they are riding for - they will be in trouble.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

LostViking said:


> Brings to mind the Lance and Conti shoot-out - which added tons of drama to that race.
> 
> Question - does Froome have the cujones (<-sp.?) to go Conti on Wiggo? If he does, that will be a dominant sub-polt to what is already, on paper at least, looking to be a good TdF.


If Froome goes Conti on Wiggo, will all the Sky guys line up in front of Wiggo and try to drag him to the front? IMO, Brailsford will probably try to nail down the plan b/4 the race, in proper English fashion.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

Alaska Mike said:


> Saxo is a WorldTour team. They automatically get the invite. The real question is which Grand Tours Contador decides to ride.


I thought they were still Continental.


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## aclinjury (Sep 12, 2011)

If Conti is in the race, if Valverde is in the race, if Rodriguez is in the race, you can bet the farm that these guys will start the attack early, say... at the base of any climb! They are not going to wait for the Sky train, Sky train won't keep up, and it will be obliterated quickly.

In such scenario, Froome will have NO choice but to give poor old Wiggo the "Conti look" and then takeoff with the 3 Spaniards.

There is only 1 time trial stage, and between Wiggo and Conti, Wiggo has the edge, but only slightly. Not nearly enough.

In 2012 TdF, remember that part where Froome was directed to hold back after having taking off (on a climb) because apparently Wiggo was hurting from trying to keep up. It's my opinion that had Froome allowed to freelance in 2012, he would beat Wiggo. In 2013, there will be more climbing and less TT'ing. And despite what Wiggo wishes to do in 2013, once the climbing stages start to heat up, the natural order of things will come to pass real quick, that is to say, Conti, Valverde, Rodriguez, Froome, Schleck, will be leaving the Sky Train and the rest of the peloton behind (including Wiggo) and there's nothing Sky/Wiggo can do about it. At this point, Brailsford and Sky management will have no choice but to pour support into Froome.

ehh.. Wiggo is just being Wiggo.. talking. But when the climbing starts, the natural order of things will take over.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

Froome doesn't climb or time trail as well as Contador, so I don't see where if you're Sky (with Froome) you have an advantage to build around? I think you can make a case that Wiggins could win with a similar strategy to what Armstrong used - limit losses on the climbs and plan to win the individual and teams time trails by big margins. Combine the TTT and ITT and you may have two, maybe minutes cushion to give on the climbs. I'm not saying it would happen, but at least going in you'd have a strategy to win that doesn't require Contador having an unexpected problem.


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## Alaska Mike (Sep 28, 2008)

spade2you said:


> I thought they were still Continental.


Team Saxo-Tinkoff has been at the top level of cycling (under various names) since 2000, which is likely one of the reasons they still have a license. If Riis can avoid being kicked out for past doping transgressions, he'll likely rebuild the team into something much stronger than it was before the Schleck-led exodus.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Alaska Mike said:


> Team Saxo-Tinkoff has been at the top level of cycling (under various names) since 2000, which is likely one of the reasons they still have a license. If Riis can avoid being kicked out for past doping transgressions, he'll likely rebuild the team into something much stronger than it was before the Schleck-led exodus.


They have a nice start with additions like Roche, Duggan and the others they have signed this offseason. It's probably the strongest support Contador has had in years.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

Alaska Mike said:


> Team Saxo-Tinkoff has been at the top level of cycling (under various names) since 2000, which is likely one of the reasons they still have a license. If Riis can avoid being kicked out for past doping transgressions, he'll likely rebuild the team into something much stronger than it was before the Schleck-led exodus.


I thought they were continental because they didn't have many points last year. Contador's points don't count. Last I heard they weren't a top shelf team at the moment. Because of that, they're not guaranteed the invite.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

I don't recall Armstrong losing time on climbs...


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## Alaska Mike (Sep 28, 2008)

spade2you said:


> I thought they were continental because they didn't have many points last year. Contador's points don't count. Last I heard they weren't a top shelf team at the moment. Because of that, they're not guaranteed the invite.


They've never lost their top-tier license, despite sponsorship, doping, and points woes over the last few years. Katusha could make it uncomfortable for them in the next couple months, but I doubt their license will be pulled.


> As a result of the hearings held on 19, 21, 22, 28 November and 7 December, the Licences Commission has issued a UCI WorldTour licence to the following teams:
> 
> AG2R La Mondiale 2013-2016
> Euskaltel Euskadi 2013-2016
> ...


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

spade2you said:


> I thought they were continental because they didn't have many points last year. Contador's points don't count. Last I heard they weren't a top shelf team at the moment. Because of that, they're not guaranteed the invite.


Earlier this past week, the UCI released the list of world tour teams and Saxo made it along with Argos and Katusha was left off the list to everyone's surprise. Katusha is appealing and may file a law suit. Saco bought a bunch of riders to provide them with enough points.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

the decision between the last teams was not based on points. there would be no point waiting until december to announce it if that was the case.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

Rashadabd said:


> Earlier this past week, the UCI released the list of world tour teams and Saxo made it along with Argos and Katusha was left off the list to everyone's surprise. Katusha is appealing and may file a law suit. Saco bought a bunch of riders to provide them with enough points.


Missed that particular article. Thought Riis was sweating a few months ago. 

The Tour it is. Now that Wiggo is hinting at The Double, I highly doubt it.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Not sure what is motivating wiggo here, but the double seems highly unlikely.

Wiggins Hints At Giro-Tour Double Attempt | Cyclingnews.com

If Froome stays home to prepare for the Tour, can wiggo win the Giro without him? At this point, my guess is Wiggins is free to say whatever he feels like is coming out of his pie hole...


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## aclinjury (Sep 12, 2011)

AdamM said:


> Froome doesn't climb or time trail as well as Contador, so I don't see where if you're Sky (with Froome) you have an advantage to build around? I think you can make a case that Wiggins could win with a similar strategy to what Armstrong used - limit losses on the climbs and plan to win the individual and teams time trails by big margins. Combine the TTT and ITT and you may have two, maybe minutes cushion to give on the climbs. I'm not saying it would happen, but at least going in you'd have a strategy to win that doesn't require Contador having an unexpected problem.


yes Froome can't keep up with Conti when the gradient starts to point north of 13%, in which case nobody can except for Rodriguez. This was what happened at Vuelta. However, while 2013 TdF will be steeper than 2012, it will not be like Vuelta. In such a scenario, Froome can somewhat keep up. Time trial wise, Froome is a tad behind Conti, but on a good day, Froome has a chance to beat him. While on paper Froome may lose out to Conti in both areas, but in an actual race upsets can happen given a small advantage of Conti.

But for Wiggo, we know he will get killed on the climb by Conti. This is pretty much a guarantee. On the time trial front, Conti is not going to get killed by Wiggo, far from it. And if Conti decides to drop the hammer on Wiggo and forces him to chase on a few of the climbing stages, then it's questionable that Wiggo will have anything left to beat Conti in the time trial.

One can certainly look at the Froome-Wiggo-Conti from many perspective. If Conti is on form, then neither will win. However, IMO Froome has a better chance of beating a not-on-form Conti, and maybe catch Conti off guard. 
IMO, Sky's strategy should be 
1) get Froome ready to take advantage of a slipped up Conti
2) pray than Conti slip a bit (lots of things can happen during the race).


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

aclinjury said:


> yes Froome can't keep up with Conti when the gradient starts to point north of 13%, in which case nobody can except for Rodriguez. This was what happened at Vuelta. However, while 2013 TdF will be steeper than 2012, it will not be like Vuelta. In such a scenario, Froome can somewhat keep up. Time trial wise, Froome is a tad behind Conti, but on a good day, Froome has a chance to beat him. While on paper Froome may lose out to Conti in both areas, but in an actual race upsets can happen given a small advantage of Conti.
> 
> But for Wiggo, we know he will get killed on the climb by Conti. This is pretty much a guarantee. On the time trial front, Conti is not going to get killed by Wiggo, far from it. And if Conti decides to drop the hammer on Wiggo and forces him to chase on a few of the climbing stages, then it's questionable that Wiggo will have anything left to beat Conti in the time trial.
> 
> ...


Pretty much. Disqualifications aside, Conti has won 7 out of 8 grand tours since 2007. His 5th place (removed) in the 2011 TdF was almost certainly due to having to ride The Double. 

As an armchair DS, I would have thought giving the Giro to Wiggo, fully support Cav in the Tour, and Froome to the Vuelta would have made the most sense on paper.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

den bakker said:


> the decision between the last teams was not based on points. there would be no point waiting until december to announce it if that was the case.


True, but Saxo needed the extra points to even be in the discussion (without Contador's points).


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Rashadabd said:


> They have a nice start with additions like Roche, Duggan and the others they have signed this offseason. It's probably the strongest support Contador has had in years.


I think they picked up Michael Rogers and Roman Kreuziger as well? Both can help in the mountains.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

spookyload said:


> I think they picked up Michael Rogers and Roman Kreuziger as well? Both can help in the mountains.


Rogers would be an excellent domestique. I would think Kreuzinger would be a good domestique or decent GC leader on the other GTs.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

spookyload said:


> I think they picked up Michael Rogers and Roman Kreuziger as well? Both can help in the mountains.


Mick Rogers is on Saxo now? Very interesting, do you have a link?


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

AJL said:


> Mick Rogers is on Saxo now? Very interesting, do you have a link?


Michael Rogers quits Team Sky for Alberto Contador's Saxobank-Tinkoff | road.cc | Road cycling news, Bike reviews, Commuting, Leisure riding, Sportives and more


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

spade2you said:


> As an armchair DS, I would have thought giving the Giro to Wiggo, fully support Cav in the Tour, and Froome to the Vuelta would have made the most sense on paper.


Nobody on Sky will be supporting Cav!
Cavendish to join Omega Pharma-QuickStep in 2013


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

baker921 said:


> Nobody on Sky will be supporting Cav!
> Cavendish to join Omega Pharma-QuickStep in 2013


Well aware. I think Sky should have played their cards a little better. Supported Cav is almost surely guaranteed the green jersey. Fully supported Froome or Wiggo? Not so much against Contador.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

spade2you said:


> Well aware. I think Sky should have played their cards a little better. Supported Cav is almost surely guaranteed the green jersey. Fully supported Froome or Wiggo? Not so much against Contador.


Tour Yellow >> Tour green.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

foto said:


> Tour Yellow >> Tour green.


Well aware. Green jersey >> no jersey.


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

That was my question as well. And aside from Wiggo, even if Froome rides support in the Giro, he will lose some edge in the TDF vs. Conti, who will be doing a slow training build through May-June. If Sky dilutes their talent pool too much, they could come up dry in both races.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

velojon said:


> That was my question as well. And aside from Wiggo, even if Froome rides support in the Giro, he will lose some edge in the TDF vs. Conti, who will be doing a slow training build through May-June. If Sky dilutes their talent pool too much, they could come up dry in both races.



True. Perhaps they got a shade greedy after this year. 1st and 2nd in GC as well as a bunch of stage wins. They had to be taking it in. It's too bad Cav wasn't supported enough to take th points classification. That would have been sheer dominance not seen in many yearsl.


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## ratherBclimbing (Apr 2, 2007)

spade2you said:


> Well aware. Green jersey >> no jersey.


Then by transitive logic I'm left to assume that Yellow Jersey >> no jersey.

Gold star!


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

*Froome clears the air*



superg said:


> Apparently BW is going to the next TdF to defend this year's victory now. I bet Chris Froome isn't too happy about that, and the same goes for Dave Brailsford.
> I would love to know what made BW change his mind.


Wiggins: Numbers are a nice problem to have


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

spade2you said:


> True. Perhaps they got a shade greedy after this year. 1st and 2nd in GC as well as a bunch of stage wins. They had to be taking it in. It's too bad Cav wasn't supported enough to take th points classification. That would have been sheer dominance not seen in many yearsl.


I'm not trying to be argumentative, but I think Sky had a pretty successful season in 2012. Cavendish still won some stages and some other races and got a lot of help for the Champs Elise stage etc and they got a full year of seeing "Sky" on the WC's jersey.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

foto said:


> I'm not trying to be argumentative, but I think Sky had a pretty successful season in 2012. Cavendish still won some stages and some other races and got a lot of help for the Champs Elise stage etc and they got a full year of seeing "Sky" on the WC's jersey.


It was extreme success for sure. T-Mobile managed to get 1st and 2nd in GC, plus young rider's jersey, and green jersey. Not sure if that's even possible again.


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