# Can Wiggens hold on and win the Vuelta?



## gizzard (Oct 5, 2005)

*Can Wiggins hold on and win the Vuelta?*

Will Wiggins become the first British cyclist to win a Grand Tour when the Vuelta reaches Madrid on September 11, or will he implode on the Anglirú on Sunday 4? My gut feel is that if he's in the lead after stage 15, he could go all the way. Yes, no, maybe?


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

Wiggins, if you please.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

I think anything is possible with this Vuelta.


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## gizzard (Oct 5, 2005)

kbwh said:


> Wiggins, if you please.


My bad. Fixed it.


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## Sven_Nijs (Jul 14, 2011)

I think he's maybe shown his hand too soon, will be forced to tire the team out over the coming days doing the 'defending the jersey' thing and therefore have less support when he needs it (assuming _*he*_ maintains his form) towards the end.
I think Sky (the team _and_ the sponsor) do deserve to win a GT after all the effort they've put in but I'm not sure it'll be this one.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

I agree with Sven Nijs... wait, did I just wrote that? 

I think he will podium but, Nibali's looking good for a repeat, very close, no need to overuse his team for now, he can attack much more than Wiggins, uphill or downhill...


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Sven_Nijs said:


> I think he's maybe shown his hand too soon, will be forced to tire the team out over the coming days doing the 'defending the jersey' thing and therefore have less support when he needs it (assuming _*he*_ maintains his form) towards the end.


I don't think Wiggins has shown his hand too soon, I think the design of the Vuelta, which had serious uphill finishes fairly early, weeded out the guys to whom you could safely give the jersey. All the contenders have been at the front of the GC for days, and in those circumstances, every guy who really thinks he has a chance to win has to take time whenever he can. Seems to me Wiggins' Vuelta is going perfectly. The specialist climbers like Rodriguez are minutes down on him, and the guys who are close to him, like Nibali, are guys Wiggins should be able to climb with if he's on form. Also, the next two stages are lumpy. Once the breakaway goes, Sky only has to ride to keep the gap reasonable, and there's a good chance some other team will ride for the stage win.

I like Wiggins' chances, but Nibali is awfully close. Rodriguez needs to attack from farther out. Taking back 7 seconds a stage isn't going to get it done.


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## Dajianshan (Jul 15, 2007)

No! I say don't think so simply because he never seems to win anything anymore. He is always hyped and hyped by the British cycling press... and then crashes out, gets injured or merely drops off the radar.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

gizzard said:


> Will Wiggins become the first British cyclist to win a Grand Tour when the Vuelta reaches Madrid on September 11, or will he implode on the Anglirú on Sunday 4? My gut feel is that if he's in the lead after stage 15, he could go all the way. Yes, no, maybe?


I'd like him to keep the jersey all the way, but I doubt he will be able to do it. Nibali is only 11s back, and he is a better climber, with good experience on how to win Vuelta and rode well in other GTs. Wiggo always struggles when mountains get really steep, and I think we will see Nibali get a minute out of Wiggo on one or several stages. Nibbles can also get time on the descent.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Dajianshan said:


> No! I say don't think so simply because he never seems to win anything anymore. He is always hyped and hyped by the British cycling press... and then crashes out, gets injured or merely drops off the radar.


You mean unlike the Dauphine where he took the lead in the TT and couldn't hold on in the mountains?

Oh, wait... :wink5:

While the patriotic Brit in my would love to see it, I'm somewhat worried about Wiggo's date with Angry Lou on Sunday.*

On the other hand, he wasn't just hanging in on the steepest sections on Monday, he was turning the screw. Though the steepest bits then were about 13%, the last 6.5km af the Angliru _average_ 13%. Even Skeletor is gonna have to skip breakfast to keep up then, methinks.

* Yes, yes. That would be Angrilu rather than Angliru, but it's close enough.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

I think he can but for me Nibali is favourite. I think he is a single pace grinder on the mountains and the strength of the team will be critical. Froome has been riding out of his skin but yesterday the other team riders fell back quite quickly. I shall enjoy watching.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

MattSoutherden said:


> You mean unlike the Dauphine where he took the lead in the TT and couldn't hold on in the mountains?
> 
> Oh, wait... :wink5:
> 
> ...


1:11 lead in one-week TdF tune-up race is a bit easier to defend than 0:11 second lead in 3-week Grand Tour. We'll just have to wait and see.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

This year's edition is probably the most boring grand tour I have ever viewed, but after 13 stages of racing, only one minute separates 7 riders (!!!) from the leader's jersey leading to this weekend's 2 summit finishes -- including the Angliru.

1 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 
2 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:04 
3 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07 
4 Fredrik Kessiakoff (Swe) Pro Team Astana 0:00:09 
5 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:00:19 
6 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:00:36 
7 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Leopard Trek 0:01:04 

Wiggins is one of my least favorite riders (the way he handled his Garmin departure was so bush-league) but objectively I think he will ride very steady in the mountains and Nibali won't be able to hold his wheel. These two summit finishes are going to show how clean the peloton is -- you won't see guys out of the saddle rocketing off with 5 km to go to the finish. This new era of clean (clean-er?) GT riding favors steady grinders like Evans, Nibali and Wiggins. It will be a select bunch gruppo compatto and the "forcing" getting guys dropped in the last 1 or 2 kms. Wiggins won't get dropped.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

Despite drop-out on the pictures todays racing was great. Nibali attacking twice on the descents and cleverly picking up a 6 second intermediate sprint time bonus. With the TTs out the way GC guys seem to be fighting for every second. No one seems to be sitting back expecting to get 2 or 3 minutes on a big mountain finish.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Really interesting. I doubt Wiggins will be able to take red to the end unless he can gain time somewhere. There seem like plenty of places where others' could attack him, but I don't really see any finishes that suit him any more. Can he really keep drilling the climbers when we hit the 20%+ sections of the Angliru? Time will tell.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

baker921 said:


> No one seems to be sitting back expecting to get 2 or 3 minutes on a big mountain finish.


Unless EPO or some other substitute makes a comeback, those days appear to be over. 20 to 40 seconds -- if that -- is the most one can generally expect on a summit finish these days.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

fornaca68 said:


> Unless EPO or some other substitute makes a comeback, those days appear to be over. 20 to 40 seconds -- if that -- is the most one can generally expect on a summit finish these days.


I don't think we have seen (so far) the type of finishes that would have allowed for more than 10-20-30 seconds here and there among top climbers.
In Giro earlier this year we saw huge gains, but it was due to the super-hard course rather than doping.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Well, one hard summit finish done and dusted. Everyone apart from Mollema losing time. Wiggins looked absolutely finished when he crossed the line.


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## BirdLikeClimber (Aug 20, 2011)

I think Wiggins will suffer on Algliru big time but as Joaquim is out of it now and he can stick with the bunch its his to lose


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## BAi9302010 (Mar 7, 2002)

Nibali has reminded me of Contador in the first half of the Tour. He hasn't had the legs, so he's basically been bluffing so far the whole race. His only real attack came on the descent on stage 6 at the finish. During the TT and on all of the real climbs, he's either just hung on or been dropped. 

Wiggins has looked great, but as others have said, the Angliru is going to be the real test for his chugging diesel engine. If he and Froome stay as close as they are, he better hope that Froome doesn't start getting ideas of his own....you only have so many opportunities in your career to win a Grand Tour, Damiano Cunego back in 2004 is the perfect example.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

MattSoutherden said:


> Well, one hard summit finish done and dusted. Everyone apart from Mollema losing time. Wiggins looked absolutely finished when he crossed the line.


I changed my opinion, I think he will hold on after all. Nibali was the one serious contender for the win, now that he dropped back, Wiggo's chances improved dramatically.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Interesting to see what happens if Mollema (or someone else within 2 mins) goes on the Angliru and puts Wiggins in difficulty. Will Sky send Froome after them? Will they use Froome to try and pace Wiggo back?


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## PSC (Mar 10, 2004)

Personally, I hope Froome wins. He beat Wiggins in the TT and he has been setting tempo in mountains and is still only 7 seconds back. If Wiggins cracks on the Anglirú, I hope they let Froome have his chance, that is if he doesn't crack too.


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## 88 rex (Mar 18, 2008)

Kind of funny to read this thread after watching the Angliru stage.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

I'm very glad to see Wiggins crack. He's nothing that he's hyped up to be. Like Levi, he should stick to week long races.


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## The Tedinator (Mar 12, 2004)

Waiting for the obligatory "you shouldn't criticize (insert rider here) because you couldn't carry said rider's water bottle. How many races have you won?" comment..................


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

I vote for Froome as MVP so far.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

The Tedinator said:


> Waiting for the obligatory "you shouldn't criticize (insert rider here) because you couldn't carry said rider's water bottle. How many races have you won?" comment..................


there is a difference between "Wiggins loses ground to pure climbers on a climb", and something along the lines "Farrar is a terrible bike handler" or "What's with crashes in TdF, my group rides full of Cat 5 are better bike handlers than this"


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

The Tedinator said:


> Waiting for the obligatory "you shouldn't criticize (insert rider here) because you couldn't carry said rider's water bottle. How many races have you won?" comment..................


There's that aspect, but this race isn't over. Froome isn't too far behind. Geox now has to defend the jersey, which they might be able to do. Much like the Schlecks at the TdF, they now have the option of sending a GC rider up the road and forcing the chase. By that same token, I wonder if Menchov will be allowed to attack and allow other riders to chase. 

As for Wiggo needing to stick to shorter stage races, meh. What's the point in never going for it??


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## The Tedinator (Mar 12, 2004)

No doubt. But did anybody in their right mind think that Wiggins was going to carry red all the way to Madrid?


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

The Tedinator said:


> No doubt. But did anybody in their right mind think that Wiggins was going to carry red all the way to Madrid?


If Voekler can place 4th in the TdF, anything is possible this year! 

I think the awesome thing about this Vuelta is that the end result can be anyone's guess. If'n you didn't need to Google Froome and Cobo, you're probably not telling the truth.  It's awesome that they're doing so well, but they're virtually unknown at this particular level. Still a good amount of racing left. Might as well sit and enjoy it.


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## KenS (Jan 28, 2004)

Gack -- What a super-tough last 6.5 km! Just before they lost the camera-bike on the Wiggins group, it looked like Wiggo was just about to fall over as he went around a curve.


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## The Tedinator (Mar 12, 2004)

I was mainly commenting on the trend here that you can't say anything negative about a pro rider. Wiggins may be over-hyped, but he rode up ramps that would reduce a mere mortal to walking and pushing the bike.

I just never have bought in to the media portrayal as a serious 3 week GT contender.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

spade2you said:


> There's that aspect, but this race isn't over. Froome isn't too far behind. Geox now has to defend the jersey, which they might be able to do. Much like the Schlecks at the TdF, they now have the option of sending a GC rider up the road and forcing the chase. By that same token, I wonder if Menchov will be allowed to attack and allow other riders to chase.
> 
> As for Wiggo needing to stick to shorter stage races, meh. What's the point in never going for it??


not many opportunities left to take time. Stage 17 is the only one with short uphill finish, time gaps will be small, so bonuses are the only way to do it. But JRod and others will be targeting it too, so it's difficult to see Froome taking the win. With Menchov as super-domestique, Cobo will be well protected.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

The Tedinator said:


> I was mainly commenting on the trend here that you can't say anything negative about a pro rider. Wiggins may be over-hyped, but he rode up ramps that would reduce a mere mortal to walking and pushing the bike.
> 
> I just never have bought in to the media portrayal as a serious 3 week GT contender.


podium and 46seconds behind and suddenly you're not a contender anymore. That makes sense.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

55x11 said:


> not many opportunities left to take time. Stage 17 is the only one with short uphill finish, time gaps will be small, so bonuses are the only way to do it. But JRod and others will be targeting it too, so it's difficult to see Froome taking the win. With Menchov as super-domestique, Cobo will be well protected.


True on fewer opportunities, although the opportunity to crack or crash at any given time never goes away. :ihih:


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## The Tedinator (Mar 12, 2004)

den bakker said:


> podium and 46seconds behind and suddenly you're not a contender anymore. That makes sense.


No Schlecks, Contador, Evans, or Leipheimer. And still just a podium contender? Fail.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

The Tedinator said:


> No Schlecks, Contador, Evans, or Leipheimer. And still just a podium contender? Fail.


you're a gt contender when you end up on the podium less than 1 minute from the winner. you can now run with the goal posts to suit your needs further, I simply responded to what you wrote.


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## The Tedinator (Mar 12, 2004)

Like I said earlier; Wiggins is/was a world class track and Olympic rider, and has transitioned to a road rider of great TT prowess and one week stage race threat, but I just never bought in to the fact that he can be a 3 week GT threat. Making the podium on a greatly diluted Vuelta does not change my opinion.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

The Tedinator said:


> No Schlecks, Contador, Evans, or Leipheimer. And still just a podium contender? Fail.


* Leipheimer!* Now I know you're having a laugh!


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

baker921 said:


> * Leipheimer!* Now I know you're having a laugh!


Leipheimer has beaten several GT winners in GTs and finished the '08 Vuelta equal to Contador in real time (while on his team).


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I do think that from a career perspective that it is almost mandatory that Wiggins win this race.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Now the question is - Can Wiggins hold on and get on the podium?


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