# Lance's Chances



## Percival (Jul 7, 2010)

So, about 1:40 behind Andy S and :50 seconds behind Contador. Barring crash or injury by those two I simply do not see any possible way Lance can make that time up on those two and contend, I know its early but I am sad to say its over for LA and that sucks, I was hoping this would be an exciting TdF and MAYBE it will be, a flat tire for Andy and a crash for Alberto and Lance is back in it, but thats really the only way.



Or am I calling it too early....



Discuss Lance's chances here for the rest of the tour....


----------



## Speedi Pig (Apr 18, 2004)

It will be interesting to see where Armstrong untimately slots in, but I'd see the greatest threats to beat as AC, Cadel, and Schleck in that order.


----------



## ghost6 (Sep 4, 2009)

I say it's too early. Could be anyone's race.


----------



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Percival said:


> So, about 1:40 behind Andy S and :50 seconds behind Contador. Barring crash or injury by those two I simply do not see any possible way Lance can make that time up on those two and contend, I know its early but I am sad to say its over for LA and that sucks, I was hoping this would be an exciting TdF and MAYBE it will be, a flat tire for Andy and a crash for Alberto and Lance is back in it, but thats really the only way.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think LA's path to victory always included a bad mountain day (or off-form) Contador. His chances weren't all that great to begin with. Considering this, I don't think his chances for victory have changed significantly now that he is 50 seconds behind - the win still requires a bit of a miracle, or at least some bad luck for other major contenders. From what we have seen so far, his form is not as bad as I expected.


----------



## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

Percival said:


> I was hoping this would be an exciting TdF and MAYBE it will be


I would say it has been pretty exciting already. Lance doesn't have to win or even podium for it to an exciting race.

And there is a long way to go.


----------



## wiles (Apr 17, 2005)

*way too early*

Lance's chances are about the same as they have always been, near nil. If you think about the number of variables riding on open roads for 3,000 kilometers immediately in front of 20 million uncontrolled spectators at injury speeds with 200 other riders and motorcycles and team cars, I have always thought it was a gift of grace to just finish the damn race. Lance got the first flat that caused him to lose time in 8 tours. Chances are, this is the first of many mishaps. Ask CVV. On the other hand, when you are blessed, you are blessed.


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

His form is great this year compared to last, and he did well last year.

However, I think Contador will need to be a bit off-form in order for LA to have a serious shot. Personally I'd like to see the old dog and the new dog neck and neck to the end. 

Regardless of how one "feels" about LA, this is the stuff of TdF legend and folklore. I love it. 30 years from now, they'll be talking about it.


----------



## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

The Alps will tell the tale of who is for real.


----------



## Kaleo (Jun 15, 2008)

I don't think Andy is in his best form, and he is not the real threat, he could loose time in the Alps. Cadel is not going to give up his position too quickly, Contador and Lance will have to fight for it. We'll see how Wiggo and the other do in the mountains.


----------



## KMan (Feb 3, 2004)

*Vino....*

Too early to tell obviously.....Conto could have that "unexpected" flat at the wrong time causing some issues for hims as well...as well the same goes for all the other contenders (including Lance for a 2nd time). We are all pretty much in agreement that Lance's form is much better than most expected so who knows, he may be able to keep with Conti in the mountains. I really doubt it, but you never really know until its happening.

Plus....I think Vino might have just gotten a taste of some fresh blood and could be enticed to continue into the dark side for more and just say screw Conti and make a punch on his own during one of the key muntain stages (he is in front of Conti as of now).

....just so many variables, up thru today it is still making for a good race and should continue to do so.

Michael


----------



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

KMan said:


> Too early to tell obviously.....Conto could have that "unexpected" flat at the wrong time causing some issues for hims as well...as well the same goes for all the other contenders (including Lance for a 2nd time). We are all pretty much in agreement that Lance's form is much better than most expected so who knows, he may be able to keep with Conti in the mountains. I really doubt it, but you never really know until its happening.
> 
> Plus....I think Vino might have just gotten a taste of some fresh blood and could be enticed to continue into the dark side for more and just say screw Conti and make a punch on his own during one of the key muntain stages (he is in front of Conti as of now).
> 
> ...


for Vino to do as you (and some others) say - go for GC in the mountains - he would have to be in very good shape, arguably better than Contador. If that's the case and he outclimbs Contador (I seriously doubt it), he SHOULD go for it. But that will never happen.


----------



## Opus51569 (Jul 21, 2009)

As just a general statement....

If we've gotten to the point where any GC rider in third place (1:40 and :50 down, respectively) is considered "out" on the 4th day of a 19 day tour... something is seriously wrong with the TdF.

If that's the case, I propose next year they start with a prologue, have stage 1 be a flat stage to decide the green jersey, and have stage 2 finish on top of Ventoux to decide the white, polka-dot and yellow jerseys. The other days everyone can JRA and wave to the spectators on the side of the road...


----------



## real stonie (Mar 30, 2006)

I give the epo suckin' bike sellin' fool zero chances of even sniffing the podium.


----------



## Ghost234 (Jun 1, 2010)

Its too early to tell. The alps are where the Tour is decided, not the opening stages. Typically the sprinters are the ones who do exceptionally well early on. But unfortunately for the sprinters, they usually are the first ones to crack in the mountains. 

Lance and Alberto's best chance of winning is to simply try to minimize the amount of time lost in the opening stages, and maximize their winning time in the more challenging areas.


----------



## sir duke (Mar 24, 2006)

Lance has two chances of winning, slim and none. And slim's outta town. 
Maybe a podium if things go pear-shaped for Conti, Cadel, Schleck, Wiggo et al. At this stage in his career he should be looking at top ten. But it's early doors. This thread should be a stickie.


----------



## zipptrek (Jun 16, 2002)

real stonie said:


> I give the epo suckin' bike sellin' fool zero chances of even sniffing the podium.


 Thems fightin' words.
As far as the EPO goes you have no proof one way or the other.
I bet he makes more money sellin' bikes than you will ever make.
He is smart enough to have won 7 tours and make himself into a millionaire.
Not mention all his work in cancer research.

Go ahead and hate him if you want but there is no need for that kind of talk.


----------



## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

Fighting on the internet, you know what they say.


----------



## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

*Too early, too many factors.*

I think Lance's success is heavily reliant in how much his team can support him - whether it be buffering attacks on hill climbs or pulling him around. It's pretty clear that his own physical performance isn't reigning over Contador. All he's really got is that "X" factor - that is, if it's surely going to show up.

I guess the same could be said for Contador. Yes he can suck the gravity out of hill climbs, but the idea of "working off other riders from other teams" is easier said than done. As far as I see it, unless it's like only 1-2 people following him in a breakaway, no one is actually going to cooperate with him and will try to pull him back to the peloton. Contador also has his own "X" factor: Vino. We don't know if Vino is going to go completely rogue, if Contador can manipulate that to his own advantage, or if Vino is going to make any strong presence in the later stages.

Without Frank, Andy's going to be looking to another "big F" to maintain a buddy system: Cancellara. I don't mean to question that guy's greatness, but he's been kicking ass (including his own) for quite a while this year before the Tour. Who knows what it'll look like for ANYONE in the later stages. As it is, we had 2 stages full of mishaps. The "logic" behind my post would dictate that Lance's chances are still there as Kloden, Levi and the rest of his veteran team are in good condition.

I'm at "anything's possible" until one of them makes a move for me to judge/assume further upon.


----------



## Lazy Spinner (Aug 30, 2009)

Don't count out the power of Lance's team. He's got Horner, Levi, and Kloden to get him up the climbs and all are capable of bagging mountain stages themselves.

That said, you still have to favor Contador on sheer talent and climbing ability.

Here's a question: Why, outside of old fashioned sportsmanship, don't teams form alliances to cover each other's weaknesses? For example, why wouldn't Radio Shack and BMC "work together" to pressure Saxo and Astana? It seems to me that Lance and Cadel could help each other eliminate Andy and Fingerbang then settle it man to man during the final big mountain stage.


----------



## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Don't count out Lance. He's obviously on better form than last year, when he got 3rd. Unless more things go more wrong for him later, Contador is the only rider I see being able to hold his position against Lance, Cadel should do well too. 

A. Schleck will have to have a ride for the ages in the mountain stages to gain more time than he will lose in the long TT and he's not good enough to pull that off in this crowd.


----------



## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

Given how brutal the Pyrenees stages are this year, I just don't see how Armstrong will be able to recover enough to stay competitive, especially considering the accelerations Contador and Schleck can dish out.


----------



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

real stonie said:


> I give the epo suckin' bike sellin' fool zero chances of even sniffing the podium.


dunno about Lance's chances, but chances of this thread getting moved to doping because some folks can't have a discussion without bringing doping into it look pretty good right now.


----------



## zphogan (Jan 27, 2007)

I think it boils down to whether Contador has an off day or not. I feel Lance will at some point take serious time out of Cadel Evans. Cadel will fold somewhere, you watch. I also think A. Schleck is not the same as last year and will lose time in the mountains and get shredded in the lengthy time trial. Lance has better legs this year and everyone will see that this weekend.


----------



## trobriand (Apr 2, 2009)

This year looks wide open for a lot of contenders. Contador doesn't look as dominant as last year. 

The green jersey looks like it will be fun to watch this year. To me, the points competition was the highlight of the tour.


----------



## godot (Feb 3, 2004)

Lazy Spinner said:


> Don't count out the power of Lance's team. He's got Horner, Levi, and Kloden to get him up the climbs and all are capable of bagging mountain stages themselves.


Don't forget Janez. He may end up being Lance's best friend in the mountains.


----------



## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Ask me again after the first couple of mountain stages. Then we'll have some answers.


----------



## johnlh (Sep 12, 2008)

wiles said:


> ...If you think about the number of variables riding on open roads for 3,000 kilometers immediately in front of 20 million uncontrolled spectators at injury speeds with 200 other riders and motorcycles and team cars, I have always thought it was a gift of grace to just finish the damn race...


This is why it is so remarkable that he won 7 TdF in a row.


----------



## avbug (Oct 17, 2007)

Ventruck said:


> I think Lance's success is heavily reliant in how much his team can support him - whether it be buffering attacks on hill climbs or pulling him around.


Exactly. The fight between AC and LA is going to come down to respective team support and tactics for the two riders. As I posted in another thread, Lance will likely have something this year that he didn't have last year: a full team supporting him as the team leader. That will level the playing fields considerably, IMO.


----------



## avbug (Oct 17, 2007)

Lance looks strong this year. And he has a full team behind him this year focused on putting him forward -- unlike last year, when his team was indecisive about who to send to the top for a number of stages and then ultimately supported Lance's primary rival. 

I have a feeling most people are basing their best guesses on last year's result, which is really apples and oranges compared to this year's race dynamic.


----------



## danahs (May 24, 2008)

i would like to see lance do a landis style breakaway


----------



## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I think at this point, all the major contenders are still in it. But Lance is the old man of the bunch and he will need a lot of luck to win this thing. 

I give him a 5% chance of wearing yellow in Paris.


----------



## philippec (Jun 16, 2002)

... we all know how well that worked for Landis!


----------



## jsedlak (Jun 17, 2008)

ghost6 said:


> I say it's too early. Could be anyone's race.


this.

He should make up MAJOR time on Schleck in the TT. Not so much Cadel or Contador, in fact he may lose time to them. Of course all it takes is Contador to have a bad day and he is right back in it.


----------



## ultimobici (Jul 16, 2005)

trobriand said:


> This year looks wide open for a lot of contenders. Contador doesn't look as dominant as last year.
> 
> The green jersey looks like it will be fun to watch this year. To me, the points competition was the highlight of the tour.


And he did last year at this point?


----------



## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Way too early to worry about it. If he were 5 min back I'd worry for him but honestly.. He's still got a chance. Luck and tactics plus form..

Such a great race so far!


----------



## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

Obviously, a mechanical at the wrong time, a bad day in the mountains, or an accident can change things dramatically for any of the major contenders.....but without those things happening to his opponents, I'm not seeing Armstrong winning. 

The best thing that could happen for him in the near term, is a peloton split in the upcoming stages that gains him 20 or 30 seconds..........possible, but unlikely.

Ultimately, his margin of error, at this point, is zero. He can't make another mistake and he has to hope the other contenders do.

But there are 16 more days of racing.

Len


----------



## Gnarly 928 (Nov 19, 2005)

avbug said:


> Exactly. The fight between AC and LA is going to come down to respective team support and tactics for the two riders. As I posted in another thread, Lance will likely have something this year that he didn't have last year: a full team supporting him as the team leader. That will level the playing fields considerably, IMO.


 Boy Howdy! I agree with this for sure. The RS team has so many good guys. They are tactically capable of coming up with a way to get a couple of minutes back for Armstrong, especially the way Lance seem to be riding this year..

Those guys are the best collection of minds and bodys in the sport right now. We're used to seeing Bruneel and Lance 'play it safe' riding from a position of 'not losing' the Tour. We haven't seen em 'get creative'. We haven't seen them be 'opportunistic'.

We may see some 'fancy footwork' like Saxo's done this year, in the coming days...Though Armstrong and Bruneel seem to be 'fair' when it comes to "The Code" of The Tour, I could see them putting the hammer down (with some finesse) like FC and Shleck did (slightly) on the cobbles, if one of the other teams has a problem. With the strength of RS's team and no lead to lose, I can see them trying some punishing stuff. It certainly changed things in the standings when Saxo did it.

I was thinking maybe yesterday the Shack team might try something, seeing them all on the front ...and the other teams were pretty nervous about that, too...But I guess they gotta get rid of Cancillara before they'll attempt to nail Schleck back.
Exciting tour this time..


----------



## InfiniteLoop (Mar 20, 2010)

Two things nobody's mentioned.

1 - Anger. Lance wasn't happy with Contador going against the teams plans last year to get both of them and Levi on the podium and then allow Lance and Contador to have a showdown for the top spot. Anger provides a huge capability to overcome age issues.

2 - Motivation. Doesn't take too much to imagine Contador winning 8 tours. He's very young and very dominant. An eighth win for Lance with one less for Contador provides a LOT of motivation.


----------



## godot (Feb 3, 2004)

Gnarly 928 said:


> I was thinking maybe yesterday the Shack team might try something, seeing them all on the front


Why do you think Shack would waste their time and energy trying something to get time on GC on flat, sprinters stage with no crosswinds to catch people out?

Had they tried something they would have wasted a lot of energy, and just gotten brought back in by the sprinters teams with 5k to go anyway.

My guess is the reason they were on the front was because it's safer up there.


----------



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

godot said:


> Why do you think Shack would waste their time and energy trying something to get time on GC on flat, sprinters stage with no crosswinds to catch people out?
> 
> Had they tried something they would have wasted a lot of energy, and just gotten brought back in by the sprinters teams with 5k to go anyway.
> 
> My guess is the reason they were on the front was because it's safer up there.


Why did Radioshack ride on the front yesterday?
Apparently they made a deal with Columbia for their support in later stages:

http://www.bicycling.com/tour-de-france/expert-analysis/wheeling-and-dealing


----------



## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

Entirely too early, although it's a good thing they made it through the first 3 stages. I was figuring Frank Schleck would have been a serious overall threat, but in order to make things "exciting", it was better to take riders out of the tour early.


----------



## LWP (Jun 6, 2006)

spade2you said:


> I was figuring Frank Schleck would have been a serious overall threat, but in order to make things "exciting", it was better to take riders out of the tour early.


WTF?    

Are you saying it was some kind of WWF-inspired script? 

"Ok, _you_... you are going to break some ribs on the descent today and we'll have... ummm... you... yeah, that'll work... _you_ are going to break a collarbone on the cobbles so make it look good!" 

Or was it a random sneak attack? 

"We'll toss some oil on the descent and see who we get then we'll toss some loose sand on the cobbles at some point and get us another one, that should keep it fun."


----------



## karatemom (Mar 21, 2008)

I don't think you can ever count Lance out. He's a tremendous competitor--I don't think I like him much as a person, but as a cyclist, he can still do amazing things. And it's only the 5th day, people. An awful lot can happen.


----------



## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

LWP said:


> WTF?
> 
> Are you saying it was some kind of WWF-inspired script?


Not quite as low brow, but basically. I'm not against the classics, but too much carnage too early on in the race. There will be enough crashes without cobbles. From a GC perspective, I think losing time on the cobbles is lame the way it happened to many riders. The other roads on the first 2 stages were pretty horrible. 

While the public seems to enjoy crashes. (yes they do) I'd rather see strategy and fitness win a race.


----------



## rydbyk (Feb 17, 2010)

InfiniteLoop said:


> Two things nobody's mentioned.
> 
> 1 - Anger. Lance wasn't happy with Contador going against the teams plans last year to get both of them and Levi on the podium and then allow Lance and Contador to have a showdown for the top spot. Anger provides a huge capability to overcome age issues.
> 
> 2 - Motivation. Doesn't take too much to imagine Contador winning 8 tours. He's very young and very dominant. An eighth win for Lance with one less for Contador provides a LOT of motivation.



Contador winning "8 tours". Come on. I think Lance's 7 wins has desensitized your views of overall wins. 3 to 4 would be amazing by anyone's standards. 8? Doubt it. I would say that it will be another 2 -3 decades before Lance's record is beat. Actually, now that I think about it...could be another century...

As far as Lance's chances go. By July 13....we will have a GREAT idea of who is really IN this race for first.

My question is: Where will Cadel Evans be after the mtn. stages. I am hoping he falls second to Lance somehow...


----------



## malanb (Oct 26, 2009)

> Contador winning "8 tours". Come on. I think Lance's 7 wins has desensitized your views of overall wins. 3 to 4 would be amazing by anyone's standards. 8? Doubt it. I would say that it will be another 2 -3 decades before Lance's record is beat. Actually, now that I think about it...could be another century...
> 
> As far as Lance's chances go. By July 13....we will have a GREAT idea of who is really IN this race for first.


Well that would be soooo boring. If contador takes the same approach as LA , and stops riding any other important tour. Thats the only reason Lance did good on TDFs. Not saying he is a bad Athlete but he just got obsessed with TDF. Contador is a better rider than LA. and I hope he wins more Giros and Vueltas too.


----------



## dasho (Apr 8, 2002)

*I don't think LA will do as good...*

as he did last year.

Although he may be stronger, some good riders such as Menchov were hurt by the team time trial last year not to mention Basso and Vino not being there. And Evans and Schleck look good also.

I'd be surprised If he gets a top 5 but with LA one never knows


----------



## LesDiablesRouges (Jul 17, 2009)

By reading this thread you'd think there's no reason to ride the tour. 

I think people are failing to realize that A. Schleck would need a 3+ minute lead going into the time trial to have a shot of winning and he may actually need 4+. A Schleck is middle of the pack time trialer at best. 

LA had to follow Contador arround last year and wasn't able to attack. 

This year is compeltely different. He has full team support and his team is stronger than Contadors.

Not to mention we've yet to see the climbing form of any of the riders. 

Way too early to determine who's won or lost this race.


----------



## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

malanb said:


> Well that would be soooo boring. If contador takes the same approach as LA , and stops riding any other important tour. Thats the only reason Lance did good on TDFs. Not saying he is a bad Athlete but he just got obsessed with TDF. Contador is a better rider than LA. and I hope he wins more Giros and Vueltas too.


I dunno. With LA's strategy working so well, I more or less would see AC following in the same footsteps. I think he'd do well in them, but I can't really see him doing much outside of France by choice.


----------



## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

il sogno said:


> I think at this point, all the major contenders are still in it. But Lance is the old man of the bunch and he will need a lot of luck to win this thing.
> 
> I give him a 5% chance of wearing yellow in Paris.


That's funny. So does Vegas.


----------



## dana109 (May 1, 2009)

It's obviously too early to tell, but I don't think he ever had a chance to win. It isn't just Contador, Evans is having a great year in the rainbow jersey, and I think there could be some guys not mentioned here who have good luck/good legs on the right mountain stage and move up, no one was talking about Basso early on in the Giro, it was just cadel and vino, but having good legs and a strong teamate with you in a critical mountain stage can gain you up to 5 minutes or even more. There are still a lot of people who can win. Lance may be one of them, but I don't think it's likely.


----------



## LesDiablesRouges (Jul 17, 2009)

Shades of 85 and 86 tours here.


----------



## Percival (Jul 7, 2010)

AdamM said:


> Given how brutal the Pyrenees stages are this year, I just don't see how Armstrong will be able to recover enough to stay competitive, especially considering the accelerations Contador and Schleck can dish out.


Great thread so far, I am really enjoying reading everyone's take on this topic, like many of you I just want to see a real competitive finish involving Lance and Contador, like one poster said, this is the stuff of TdF folklore and legend and indeed they will be talking about it 30 years from now, its exactly what I wait all year for.

That said, the above quote is about where I stand, I think Lance can make up some time in the TT but not enough and I really am having a hard time imagining him getting 15-30 seconds on Alberto in the Alps etc so I dont know how he will ever make up that damn time lost on the cobbs, but, I agree that it is entirely too early to write him off, a crash or a flat tire or injury to any other GC rider and Lance is back in it, not that I wish that on anyone but it would be great to see the old dog and the new dog neck and neck in the end, something to tell the grandkids about someday even.:thumbsup:


----------



## Percival (Jul 7, 2010)

Ventruck said:


> I think Lance's success is heavily reliant in how much his team can support him - whether it be buffering attacks on hill climbs or pulling him around. It's pretty clear that his own physical performance isn't reigning over Contador. All he's really got is that "X" factor - that is, if it's surely going to show up.
> 
> I guess the same could be said for Contador. Yes he can suck the gravity out of hill climbs, but the idea of "working off other riders from other teams" is easier said than done. As far as I see it, unless it's like only 1-2 people following him in a breakaway, no one is actually going to cooperate with him and will try to pull him back to the peloton. Contador also has his own "X" factor: Vino. We don't know if Vino is going to go completely rogue, if Contador can manipulate that to his own advantage, or if Vino is going to make any strong presence in the later stages.
> 
> ...



I started another thread on tactics and team racing and I am trying to learn more about this sort of thing, I see some things in your post that pique my interest, first:

What does it mean to buffer an attack on a hill climb?

Second, how does one "Pull someone back to the peloton?"


Thanks in advance.


----------



## Percival (Jul 7, 2010)

> I think Lance's success is heavily reliant in how much his team can support him - whether it be buffering attacks on hill climbs or pulling him around. It's pretty clear that his own physical performance isn't reigning over Contador. All he's really got is that "X" factor - that is, if it's surely going to show up.
> 
> I guess the same could be said for Contador. Yes he can suck the gravity out of hill climbs, but the idea of "working off other riders from other teams" is easier said than done. As far as I see it, unless it's like only 1-2 people following him in a breakaway, no one is actually going to cooperate with him and will try to pull him back to the peloton. Contador also has his own "X" factor: Vino. We don't know if Vino is going to go completely rogue, if Contador can manipulate that to his own advantage, or if Vino is going to make any strong presence in the later stages.
> 
> ...



I started another thread on tactics and team racing and I am trying to learn more about this sort of thing, I see some things in your post that pique my interest, first:

What does it mean to buffer an attack on a hill climb?

Second, how does one "Pull someone back to the peloton?"


Thanks in advance.


----------



## Percival (Jul 7, 2010)

> Boy Howdy! I agree with this for sure. The RS team has so many good guys. *They are tactically capable of coming up with a way to get a couple of minutes back for Armstrong,* especially the way Lance seem to be riding this year..
> 
> Those guys are the best collection of minds and bodys in the sport right now. We're used to seeing Bruneel and Lance 'play it safe' riding from a position of 'not losing' the Tour. We haven't seen em 'get creative'. We haven't seen them be 'opportunistic'.
> 
> ...



Same as my post above, I have no idea what it means to say that LA's team is "Tactically capable of coming up with a way to get a couple of minutes back for him."


What exactly does that mean, what sort of tactics would a team use to get a couple of minutes back for their leader? Sorry if these are stupid questions I just really want to start watching the TdF in a more informed manner so I can understand what is really going on and not just see a bunch of guys riding bikes.


----------



## Percival (Jul 7, 2010)

> Boy Howdy! I agree with this for sure. The RS team has so many good guys. T*hey are tactically capable of coming up with a way to get a couple of minutes back for Armstrong*, especially the way Lance seem to be riding this year..
> 
> Those guys are the best collection of minds and bodys in the sport right now. We're used to seeing Bruneel and Lance 'play it safe' riding from a position of 'not losing' the Tour. We haven't seen em 'get creative'. We haven't seen them be 'opportunistic'.
> 
> ...



Same as my post above, I have no idea what it means to say that LA's team is "Tactically capable of coming up with a way to get a couple of minutes back for him."


What exactly does that mean, what sort of tactics would a team use to get a couple of minutes back for their leader? Sorry if these are stupid questions I just really want to start watching the TdF in a more informed manner so I can understand what is really going on and not just see a bunch of guys riding bikes


----------



## bismo37 (Mar 22, 2002)

LesDiablesRouges said:


> By reading this thread you'd think there's no reason to ride the tour.
> 
> I think people are failing to realize that A. Schleck would need a 3+ minute lead going into the time trial to have a shot of winning and he may actually need 4+. A Schleck is middle of the pack time trialer at best.
> 
> ...


^^^ all this. 

It will be exciting to see how things pan out in the mtn stages. Last year, LA couldn't counterattack when AC went off the front. AC was his teammate and LA adhered to team protocol by not countering his teammate's attack.

It will be interesting to see Cadel perform. I have a feeling he will shine in the mtns, have one bad day, choke and fall out of podium contention. 

Schleck may surprise us with some damn good TTing yet. Remember Pantani's crazy fast TT out of nowhere in 1990s?


----------



## Sasquatch (Feb 3, 2004)

jeebus said:


> ^^^ all this.
> 
> Schleck may surprise us with some damn good TTing yet. Remember Pantani's crazy fast TT out of nowhere in 1990s?


no doubt, he was on the juice when he did that. i dont think A Schleck will be able to produce a performance like that, he has already said so in an interview in Procycling.


----------



## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

Percival said:


> I started another thread on tactics and team racing and I am trying to learn more about this sort of thing, I see some things in your post that pique my interest, first:
> 
> What does it mean to buffer an attack on a hill climb?
> 
> ...


Saw your thread, but I find it better to answer those two questions here.

Your other thread was leaning on the idea of drafting as a mechanism to null a breakaway - and that does explain what I'm saying - but to expand on that...

On a hill, rhythm is delicate and plays a major role in the success of one's climb. If one were to be tailed - especially in numbers - there comes a big threat and chance that their rhythm will break and their breakaway would be rendered ineffective. This can be done by simply crowding the rider...that is, if that rider hasn't been able to trump any of the threats through outright superior pedaling performance.

"Pulling" is really a case of helping someone else draft and get the benefit of reserving their power until the time of a self-planned attack or response to another GC's contender's attack. Good exhibition would be how Mark Renshaw works as a "leadout man" for Cavendish: Lets him suck wheel until they're at the set distance for Cavendish to take off and make a run for the win.


----------



## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

jeebus said:


> Schleck may surprise us with some damn good TTing yet. Remember Pantani's crazy fast TT out of nowhere in 1990s?


And Scarlet Johanson might surprise me by having warmed up my bed when I come home.


----------



## bismo37 (Mar 22, 2002)

edit: posted in wrong spot


----------



## bismo37 (Mar 22, 2002)

I agree. I'm not doubting Pantani was juicing for that Tour. Nor do I think Schleck has a winning TT in him, but stranger things have arisen in the Tour. All I'm saying is: every now and then we see this out-of-the-ordinary performance by some riders played off as "inspiration from wearing the maillot jaune".


----------



## bismo37 (Mar 22, 2002)

edit;;; i'm an idjut.


----------



## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

We will have a much better idea of the Texan's chances after this weekend, and possibly after Saturday's stage.


----------



## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*Stage 9*

Wait til stage 9, that will be the deal


----------



## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

ttug said:


> Wait til stage 9, that will be the deal


I bet it will not be a decisive stage. The classic climbs come early on in the stage, and even the final climb (hors) is over 30km from the finish.


----------



## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*possible*



pretender said:


> I bet it will not be a decisive stage. The classic climbs come early on in the stage, and even the final climb (hors) is over 30km from the finish.


Thats true as well, but if you wanted tio make a lead and make it hurt and you had 50 seconds on a contedah.....well, there you go


----------



## LesDiablesRouges (Jul 17, 2009)

Knight of the Round table,

They pull riders back by grabbing their jersey and pulling them back while yelling get back here. It's similar to that Mortal Kombat character throwing his harpoon and pulling his opponent close to him.  

Joking of course.

The team tactics aren't really that complicated in theory the difficulty is meauring them with all the variables in a given race day. 

For example.on these early stage except for stage 3 you'll a few guys breakway early on and build fairly large leads and yet the peloton has been able to pull them back meaning they've been able to reel them in. 

The best way to think of it in a non technical way is to think of the peleton as a tidal wave and the escapees are trying to escape a tidal wave. On reletively flat stages it's nearly impossible to avoid the peleton because 

a group of 170+ riders allows for massive drag coefficients which basically allows for the peleton to expend far less energy as opposed to the escapees and as a result the escapes eventually tire and the peloton raises the pace and they normally catch the escapees.

Where doesn't work is on big mountain stages because the exhaustion rate is different and the racers have different climbing capacibilities which vary greatly.

The concept concerning Armstrong is that he uses his teammates to set hellacious pace on the climbs esssentially forcing people to stay up by matching the pace and then when he senses weakness he attacks. 

Having teammates near on the climbs helps if someone else attacks as they can form a group and rotate the front position allowing him wind protection and basically allowing him to save energy on climbs.

In this particular race the sentiment is that Contador is storng enough that he will be able to unleash massive attacks which will cripple the field and that he is strong enough to be able to mark all the important attacks and strike at the times when there is weakness.


----------



## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

If Armstrong is ever to use traditional tactics it won't/can't come until 14 at least. 8 and 9 just aren't set up for him at this point.


----------



## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

LA in difficulty today per Eurosport.


----------



## erol/frost (May 30, 2004)

And that`s that. 

Wow. Really didn`t see this coming, at least this early. Maybe a mix of crashes, the heat, the humidity?


----------



## LeDomestique (Jan 17, 2007)

*Levi*

Too sad, I guess he crashed at the wrong time...bit of bad luck really. Then took lots of energy to go back to the peloton uphill. As you say...that's that.

Now there's Levi going for RS

cheers


----------



## ronbo613 (Jan 19, 2009)

> And that`s that.


Sure looks like it.
Seems like all the bad luck he avoided in winning seven times has got dumped on him for his final ride.


----------



## malanb (Oct 26, 2009)

mmm everyone had crashes this year in tour, heat is the same for everyone, saddle sores too. He should have stayed home


----------



## muscleendurance (Jan 11, 2009)

ronbo613 said:


> Sure looks like it.
> Seems like all the bad luck he avoided in winning seven times has got dumped on him for his final ride.


Id swear I could see the moment when he realised this himself and laughed to himself [or to a bystander] and just wanted the road to open and fall in!


----------



## king of Norway (Jan 10, 2002)

The shaq-tracker just reported that Alphonse wants his bike back.


----------



## Hairy Palms (Feb 8, 2010)

I guess the real question now is, will he stay in the tour and work for Levi?

Now if Andy can find someone from his team to work with he can win this.

I loved it when Andy went and AC couldn't.


----------



## jsedlak (Jun 17, 2008)

Interesting. Just saw the crash. I wonder what will happen. Would be awesome if he rode for Levi, or attacked in a desperate attempt, or rode for Schleck....


----------



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*I hope to see him*

turning himself inside out to help Levi get a high finish

that would be a fitting farewell

and maybe one flyer when they hit the Pyr.


----------



## tuffguy1500 (Jul 17, 2008)

atpjunkie said:


> turning himself inside out to help Levi get a high finish
> 
> that would be a fitting farewell...


this + eleventy. Lance's farewell tour just went from trying to win 8 to passing the torch. Seeing another American on the TOP of the podium would be awesome. Or Andy, he's awesome too.


----------



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

tuffguy1500 said:


> this + eleventy. Lance's farewell tour just went from trying to win 8 to passing the torch. Seeing another American on the TOP of the podium would be awesome. Or Andy, he's awesome too.


I hope to see him with 9 waterbottles in his jersey, a-la Poppo, bringing them up to Levi and Klodi at the front.

People will tend to blame saddle sores, crashes, flat tires - but the reality seems to be more simple - I think LA was just in bad form today, climbing-wise. Whether it's isolated incident, or true in general, we will learn soon (not that it matters).


----------



## C6Rider (Nov 15, 2008)

*2 true*



55x11 said:


> I hope to see him with 9 waterbottles in his jersey, a-la Poppo, bringing them up to Levi and Klodi at the front.
> 
> People will tend to blame saddle sores, crashes, flat tires - but the reality seems to be more simple - I think LA was just in bad form today, climbing-wise. Whether it's isolated incident, or true in general, we will learn soon (not that it matters).


AMEN !


----------



## malanb (Oct 26, 2009)

the question is... can Lance be a good loser?

i dont think so


----------



## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

I'm hoping Lance acts like a true champion and works for Levi now...but somehow I doubt it. I suspect he will find a reason to pull out.


----------



## awc5004 (Jul 19, 2009)

From the Team RadioShack site:

*"Armstrong was also asked if today was his last day on the Tour, and he answered with an emphatic “No! Like I said, I felt strong before and I’ve proved before today that my condition is good. I just couldn’t recover from the fall. This is a long race. Obviously the Tour is finished for me but I can stay in the race, try to win stages, help the team and really try to appreciate my time here and appreciate that I’m not coming back here. No tears from me, you know. I’ve had a lot of years here where it’s been very different so I’m not going to dwell on today.” Asked if it was the end of an era, Lance said, “No, I think that era ended a long time ago.” 

Read more: http://www.livestrong.com/teamradioshack/news_i-m-not-going-dwell-today/#ixzz0tQH2fO00 "*


----------



## scarecrow (Oct 7, 2007)

Lance won't pull out b/c he has sponsors to think about. He hit the deck pretty hard, he's lucky not to be in the hospital. I was impressed they got him back to the front of the field that was some strong riding by his team.

If I am JB I use Horner/Jani to try and get a stage win while the others work for Levi. Nobody is going to let Lance go up the road unless he is 20+ minutes down.


----------



## barhopper (Aug 10, 2009)

55x11 said:


> I hope to see him with 9 waterbottles in his jersey, a-la Poppo, bringing them up to Levi and Klodi at the front.
> 
> People will tend to blame saddle sores, crashes, flat tires - but the reality seems to be more simple - I think LA was just in bad form today, climbing-wise. Whether it's isolated incident, or true in general, we will learn soon (not that it matters).





The crashes today were not LA's fault.............. just really bad luck.


----------



## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

He clipped a pedal.


----------

