# The Astana Soap Opera Continues ...



## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

So after a week in which Astana wins 3 stages but gifts away 2 stage races (P-N and T-A), Lance flaps his gums before his favorite periodical, L'Equipe -- WTF??? -- taking a jab at one of his teammates AND now effectively saying the Giro is training and he wants to be in peak condition for the TdF. Seems to me he previewed the 60-km ITT stage near the Cinque Terre and thinks he can't do it???

From cn.com ...


Lance Armstrong took aim at the performance of his teammate Alberto Contador in an interview with French newspaper L'Equipe. "Contador has a lot to learn," Armstrong said. "He is the best in the world. The only negative thing, and I say this with great respect, is that he is too nervous. He is too strong to be so nervous. He has a good team manager and a strong team. Why get nervous?"

***
Armstrong added that he wants to peak for the first day of the Tour de France. This year's race starts with a 15-kilometre time trial in Monaco, which Armstrong previewed last week.

"*I want to be strong in the Giro but not at my peak*. I want to be at 90%. _*The goal is to do a good Giro, finishing in the top 10 or top 5 or top 3*_, if everything goes well."


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Mmm hmmm.... Mmmhmmm...


He's raced the Giro, oh wait, no, that was George Hincapie. 

Interesting indeed. I knew he was gonna target the Tour for sure, but I did think the Giro was also his goal.

Then again, the Giro mountains tend to be crazy so maybe he can't do it. Of course, I actually hope he can still tear it up on the climbs and leave others in the dust, save for Contador, Basso and a few other great climbers in the GC perhaps. (Not talking about pure climbers who only go for the KoM)

If this is the case, the Tour would indeed be interesting - co leadership with Alberto is a given. Who becomes rider primero, well, the first tough stage would determine that. IMO, it's gonna be great. Why? This way, Alberto and Lance (or whomever else for that matter, i.e. Levi) would really go for it on the mountains and there would be racing against each other, despite also working for one another.

It'll be a race to prove who's the best in their team and once that's set, the rest will then work for that guy. Really cool indeed because I really wanted to see Levi, Lance and Alberto go all out for a day or 2 and determine who's the strongest at that time.

It's a given the 3 of them, and possibly Kloden and Zubeldia as well, would be all in the main threatening group on the big/last climb so this would be really fun to watch who would reign supreme. 

3 leaders, 2 super domestiques, 3 if you add Popo. I can't wait indeed. 

Looks like I may well get cycling.tv this year!


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

come on, uzzie. you cant have three leaders. it flies in the face of teh definition of leader. and i think we all know who the leader will be when it comes time for le tour. i just hope conti is prepared, mentally and physically, for the giro. he is the reigning champ, so that should help. but he was promised, before and after LA came back into the fold, that le tour would be his. now all that is changing? based on what? i hope not losing PN, becasue we all know how i feel about that...

how is this for a one-word analogy:
backslider


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## ProRoad (Oct 13, 2008)

Most of the "Drama" is created by he media that is reporting it. But hey, jump on in!

Should be a fun year.

Brian


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Astana: All Chiefs and no Indians. There is no way Armstrong and Leipheimer will work for Contador and no way Contador will work for them. The contest will be Astana USA v Astana Europe. I suspect that the team isn't nearly strong enough to work two leaders effectively. When the chips are down there will be several stronger and more unified outfits working for a single leader.
This is going to be a great year!!!!


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## godot (Feb 3, 2004)

It will all be okay and Astana will be one big happy family for all the GT's. Remember, the important thing is the cancer message, not the actual races.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

fornaca68 said:


> So after a week in which Astana wins 3 stages but _*gifts away 2 stage races*_ (P-N and T-A)


A quibble perhaps, but I would not say Astana gifted T-A to Scarponi. Kloeden simply couldn't hold the pace of Scarponi and company. His team was weak, and maybe that's what you mean, but Lovkvist's team was pretty strong and that didn't keep him on the podium. As his pre-stage remarks indicated, Kloeden had correctly identified Scarponi as the man to mark, but he simply couldn't mark him. Getting beaten by a stronger rider is not giving the race away. I agree Contador gave P-N away. As I say, merely a quibble.

Certainly the shortcomings of the Astana helpers has to be cause for concern for the team.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

fornaca68 said:


> So after a week in which Astana wins 3 stages but gifts away 2 stage races (P-N and T-A), Lance flaps his gums before his favorite periodical, L'Equipe -- WTF??? -- taking a jab at one of his teammates AND now effectively saying the Giro is training and he wants to be in peak condition for the TdF. Seems to me he previewed the 60-km ITT stage near the Cinque Terre and thinks he can't do it???
> 
> From cn.com ...
> 
> ...


It really amazes me that when a newspaper prints stuff like that, the words "sensationalist" or "tabloid" never enter these discussions. However if they dare question the "cleanliness" of our heroes those same two words are thrown out every second sentence.

I guess all that's missing to complete this sideshow are the names Rasmussen, Landis and Ullrich. Maybe we the fans should petition the ASO to let them ride and provide us with some much needed spectacle.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

weltyed said:


> come on, uzzie. you cant have three leaders. it flies in the face of teh definition of leader. and i think we all know who the leader will be when it comes time for le tour. i just hope conti is prepared, mentally and physically, for the giro. he is the reigning champ, so that should help. but he was promised, before and after LA came back into the fold, that le tour would be his. now all that is changing? based on what? i hope not losing PN, becasue we all know how i feel about that...
> 
> how is this for a one-word analogy:
> backslider


Well, ok 3 is a stretch I have to admit.

But, let me clarify - Lance and Alberto. Stronger man becomes the overall guy. Fair? Seems to be.

Levi as chief lieutenant. He'll shelter either Lance or Alberto most of the time, take limited pulls (none on the flats) and be a semi-protected rider.

Wait, Contador is racing in the Giro?? :idea:


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

albert owen said:


> Astana: All Chiefs and no Indians. There is no way Armstrong and Leipheimer will work for Contador and no way Contador will work for them. The contest will be Astana USA v Astana Europe. I suspect that the team isn't nearly strong enough to work two leaders effectively. When the chips are down there will be several stronger and more unified outfits working for a single leader.
> This is going to be a great year!!!!


Yes they have a lot of Chiefs. But Kloden is basically their Chief Indian now if you don't realize.

Leipheimer has worked for Contador on 2 occasions last year. He'll do the same. Why? A consummate professional who keeps quiet and works for the team. He'll want to lead and he'll make his case by riding well in any race he's the leader in the lead up to the tour.

At the Tour, he'll try to be as close as possible to the main group, take lesser pulls maybe etc. If he can go from there, then he'll get his chance. 

As for Armstrong working for Contador, he could, but not before the stage where he loses (if he does that is) time to Contador and is out of the equation for the top step perhaps. Even then, he'd still be the protected rider up till the latter stages. 

It's kinda similar to Levi at the Vuelta last year. He was the protected rider, but he worked for Contador. This time, well, Lance would probably work less than Levi did at the Vuelta last year. 

Once again, I'll highlight last year's Vuelta to say that the team is stronger now and they could well work for 2 leaders. They practically did anyway last year. This time, with the addition of Zubeldia, they have one heck of a mountain goat in their arsenal too. Oh and, Popo can work on the flats or hills for that matter. 

2 leaders, up till one blows up maybe. If not, then well, 2 leaders. 1 chief lieutenant in Levi. One second lieutenant in Kloden. 2 super domestiques in Zubeldia and Popo. Noval, Chechu and Vaitkus perhaps to round it up.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*oh man, that could be good*



uzziefly said:


> Mmm hmmm.... Mmmhmmm...
> 
> 
> He's raced the Giro, oh wait, no, that was George Hincapie.
> ...


OMFG, can you imagine what the climbing stages could be like?

Well at least the peleton can rest easy while they try to kill each other.


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## botto (Jul 22, 2005)

Hello 1986.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

ummmm, lemond vs hinault?



uzziefly said:


> But, let me clarify - Lance and Alberto. Stronger man becomes the overall guy. Fair?
> 
> Levi as chief lieutenant. He'll shelter either Lance or Alberto most of the time, take limited pulls (none on the flats) and be a semi-protected rider.


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## botto (Jul 22, 2005)

weltyed said:


> ummmm, lemond vs hinault?


why didn't i think of that?


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## akrafty1 (Apr 10, 2006)

botto said:


> Hello 1986.



HA! Good one!


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## thebadger (Jul 27, 2002)

All this speculation and not one mention in the selected quote from L'Equipe did Armstrong say Contador wasn't the team leader. In fact, he said Contador is the strongest in the world. Armstrong said he wants to be at his peak. So be it. I would think any participant in the Tour would want to be at his peak at some point during the race.


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## bas (Jul 30, 2004)

blazzing saddles agrees with you in the gifting away of paris-nice.

http://eurosport.yahoo.com/17032009/58/blazin-saddles-clever-contador.html


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## ronbo613 (Jan 19, 2009)

All the makings of a great Tour.

I don't suppose all the other riders and teams are going to mail it in, regardless of how many chiefs Astana has...................


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## Wildstar87 (Apr 5, 2005)

Yeah multiple team leaders, you figure out whoever is the strongest gets the team support.. That worked SO GREAT for T-mobile/Telecom, yeahh!! Oh wait.....


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Wildstar87 said:


> Yeah multiple team leaders, you figure out whoever is the strongest gets the team support.. That worked SO GREAT for T-mobile/Telecom, yeahh!! Oh wait.....


Worked OK for them in 1997.


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## Wildstar87 (Apr 5, 2005)

harlond said:


> Worked OK for them in 1997.


Only because it was obvious who was stronger and Bjarne didn't insist on being the leader, and graciously stepped aside, otherwise it would have fractured, and Ullrich would probably have lost due to team politics, like all the other years they tried it.


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## garbec (Mar 3, 2006)

I wouldn't be surprised if L'Equipe didn't get a little creative with editing Armstrong's quotes or at least not writing them in complete context of the question... after all, creating a riff may sell a few more rags...


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## funktekk (Jul 29, 2006)

I was thinking that Armstrong may be getting a little realism about his condition. Lets not forget, he really got a late start on training up for this year. 

For him to say he doesn't really plan to factor in the podium at the Giro says a lot about his mindset. 

Perhaps he is looking to peak at the Tour just so he can hang on for a stage win or at least do a little better than pack fodder.


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## Dank (Nov 26, 2006)

Why aren't you people out riding? Thats where I'm headed now. See you in a month...Keep flapped the gums......


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

I don't know that I would take anything LA says at face value. He is a master tactician and knows how to bluff.


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## botto (Jul 22, 2005)

Dank said:


> Why aren't you people out riding? Thats where I'm headed now. See you in a month...Keep flapped the gums......


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

funktekk said:


> I was thinking that Armstrong may be getting a little realism about his condition. Lets not forget, he really got a late start on training up for this year.
> 
> For him to say he doesn't really plan to factor in the podium at the Giro says a lot about his mindset.


I agree. I think at the ToC ITT he really struggled on the flats -- and that was a relatively short ITT, not a 50- or 60-km jaunt. He hates losing and wants to be on record he isn't going to the Giro to win.


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## desmo13 (Jun 28, 2006)

Lance is going for the Giro, I think he is just getting the dogs off on the wrong scent. I also believe some it is getting his excuses down for not doing as well as the media expects him too. By saying he will only be 90% for the Giro, and concentrating on the TT of the TDF, he can not podium in either and say it was part of his plan.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

desmo13 said:


> Lance is going for the Giro, I think he is just getting the dogs off on the wrong scent. I also believe some it is getting his excuses down for not doing as well as the media expects him too. By saying he will only be 90% for the Giro, and concentrating on the TT of the TDF, he can not podium in either and say it was part of his plan.


These are not the droids you are looking for. . . .


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## ProRoad (Oct 13, 2008)

LOFL. awesome...


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## RkFast (Dec 11, 2004)

Dank said:


> Why aren't you people out riding? Thats where I'm headed now. See you in a month...Keep flapped the gums......


Some of us have lives and have to work or take care of our families. 

[hey, one half-azzed comment deserved another]


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

You all realize that there is great chance the much-hated Levi Leipheimer would surprise nobody if he is ahead of everyone except Fabian after the first TT. Im fascinated that people havnt noticed Levi going from top 20, to top10, to top 5, to top 3 as a TT man! This guy is at his PRIME. Not saying he will win in Paris, I just think it will be curious when the other 3 guys are looking up at him rather than AC or LA after first TT. They will be forced to spite him at some point. Name a superdomestique that was a legitimate top 3 TT man AND a very very good (not great) climber. Nobody has quoted Levi as to his Grand Tour aspirations this year.


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## The_Boy (Oct 25, 2005)

Letting LA and AC duke it out for leadership during the race sounds like a great way to give the upper hand to the competition the following day/week. One of the keys to LA's success was that the team was there for him and only him. What's going to happen when the light blue train is pacelining up the climb and LA and AC are the last two left? Are they going to ride two abreast? That s--- needs to be figured out before they start.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

The_Boy said:


> What's going to happen when the light blue train is pacelining up the climb and LA and AC are the last two left? Are they going to ride two abreast? That s--- needs to be figured out before they start.


This team has its act together more than Astana ... at least they work for one leader.


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## The_Boy (Oct 25, 2005)

Astana will get it together and show them what a Cutter can do.


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## cyclejim (Mar 31, 2004)

The_Boy said:


> Astana will get it together and show them what a Cutter can do.


LOL:thumbsup:


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

bigmig19 said:


> You all realize that there is great chance the much-hated Levi Leipheimer would surprise nobody if he is ahead of everyone except Fabian after the first TT. Im fascinated that people havnt noticed Levi going from top 20, to top10, to top 5, to top 3 as a TT man! This guy is at his PRIME. Not saying he will win in Paris, I just think it will be curious when the other 3 guys are looking up at him rather than AC or LA after first TT. They will be forced to spite him at some point. Name a superdomestique that was a legitimate top 3 TT man AND a very very good (not great) climber. Nobody has quoted Levi as to his Grand Tour aspirations this year.


I'm more than sure Levi will be around in the top 5 at the end. He's one guy who could work for someone and still figure at the end. Of course, he can't work his ass off like in the Giro last year or he'd just drop off. 

But, I have a strong feeling Leipheimer would place top 3 (if not win) the first TT (not prologue because it's a little too short and Fabian would probably take it. Heck, scratch top 3, make that 2nd).

Leipheimer is one of the best TTers in the world right now but the main difference between him and others who were as good previously is this : Consistency. Levi is always up there for TTs, year in, year out, start of the year, end of the year.

As a climber, he's not the most explosive. No doubt. But, he's pretty darned good alright. A little more of a flyer than Denis Menchov is because Levi could actually crank it up a little whereas Menchov just grinds it out and pulls back.

Levi ain't a super domestique. He's 1st Lieutenant. Andreas Kloden is the 2nd Lieutenant. Rest assured that Levi Leipheimer would be able to look after himself, still work hard and figure towards the end, even if it means he's their backup for the GC. Despite that, he'd be their priority after AC/LA to take a podium/top 5 spot so they can have 2 riders (maybe 3) in the top 5 with one winning it, in all possibility.

I want Levi to win but we'll have to see. I hope he's in the form of his life this Tour such that he can stick with the main group all the way till the end and hardly lose time to Alberto or Ivan or someone. Then, he could take it in the ITT.

After the first ITT, I bet Levi and Alberto would be nearer the top than Lance would this time perhaps. Although, I hope all 3 of them are just because it makes it more fun to watch and wonder etc. 

As far as overall riders go, Alberto is the best right now and Levi is, as much as people diss him, right near the top. Very good climber, not the best, but has the TT ability to make up for it against everyone (Fabian doesn't count since he can't figure on the climbs). Of course, he might lose a little more than he can make up to the likes of Contador but I can't name anyone else whom he'd not be able to make time back up from a long TT that would smoke him on the climbs (Andy Schleck sucks at TT-ing in terms of the overall GC chase)


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

The_Boy said:


> Letting LA and AC duke it out for leadership during the race sounds like a great way to give the upper hand to the competition the following day/week. One of the keys to LA's success was that the team was there for him and only him. What's going to happen when the light blue train is pacelining up the climb and LA and AC are the last two left? Are they going to ride two abreast? That s--- needs to be figured out before they start.


Not really. 

I'm sure there would be 4 riders - Lance, Alberto , Levi and Andreas. Andreas would probably be the one who works the hardest, after Popovych, Zubeldia, Chechu etc peel off.

Now, there'd be the 3 top Astana guns. It'll be on the final climb or damned near etc. Levi would work, or not, depending on who's chasing the break/who has the maillot jaune etc. 

No problems at all. Levi, the consummate professional would not complain and probably be sacrificed unfortunately, leaving AC and LA. That is, IF Lance Armstrong can hang all the way of course. Otherwise, once they figure out if Armstrong cannot, he'd be the one peeling off, leaving AC and LL up there. Although, I figure Kloden might be able to hang longer perhaps. Who knows though.

Nonetheless, AC & LL or AC & LA or heck, AC & AK (Andreas Kloden) even right up there till the end.

Somebody has to pull the trigger. When? Up to the team orders perhaps but I suppose they'd be given freedom. Then it's free for all.

No problems at all. I mean, shielding 2 riders ain't an issue at all. As far as the final 2 riders riding abreast, well, I think they could work together and take short, equal pulls if needed. This is where the problem lies according to you right? Yeap, true. I agree. Who works for whom? But, having 2 guys all the way right up there is still pretty darned good and a strong possibility indeed.

Besides, by that point, it's almost time to go for the jugular anyway so all bets are off. A little conflicting in the moments leading up to that point, yes. But, it could very well work.


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## kretzel (Aug 1, 2007)

I'll go one further - Contador was making an ally on the Caisse de Parne (sp?) squad with the gift. Sanchez is a Spaniard, on a team that wants to win the Tour but realistically knows they will be helpless against the Astana juggernaut. On the race video those 2 exchanged words before Sanchez' attack, wonder what the conversation was about...


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

kretzel said:


> I'll go one further - Contador was making an ally on the Caisse de Parne (sp?) squad with the gift. Sanchez is a Spaniard, on a team that wants to win the Tour but realistically knows they will be helpless against the Astana juggernaut. On the race video those 2 exchanged words before Sanchez' attack, wonder what the conversation was about...


Those words could well be anything from ¡Adios amigo! to shall we grab dinner later?


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## kretzel (Aug 1, 2007)

uzziefly said:


> Those words could well be anything from ¡Adios amigo! to shall we grab dinner later?


yeah but don't you think my pet theory is more entertaining?


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

kretzel said:


> yeah but don't you think my pet theory is more entertaining?


Maybe Sanchez was telling Contador he liked his 'package'    :yikes:

Erm, or maybe Alberto was telling him to check out his 'package' and Sanchez got scared, so he went away, forcing himself to attack.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

is levi healthy enough? thought he messed up his back during ToC.

i see what you are saying about AC/LA/LL/AK in le Tour, but there are four variables you are forgetting:
1) the Giro
2) internal strife due to not having a *dedicated* leader 
3) its not just astana at le tour
4) these guys are not machines

when it really gets sticky is once the road goes up. lets say astana does manage to get AC/LA/LL/AK up the road (doubtful they would TT the hills). AK and LL peel away. who leads now? you dont just let them battle over it, as they have more stages. this is where you need the defined leader. 
plus, i can see them sending AC up one day and LA the other. i dont see astana burning that many matches on the same day.

regardless, i am really looking forward to the fireworks when caisse, astana, and saxo start GC tactics.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

weltyed said:


> is levi healthy enough? thought he messed up his back during ToC.
> 
> i see what you are saying about AC/LA/LL/AK in le Tour, but there are four variables you are forgetting:
> 1) the Giro
> ...


The tour would be the big goal this year.

Internal strife aside, that would only happen come July so for now, it should be all good.

Yes, it's a Tour with other teams too of course. But, I was just focusing on the Astana aspect of things, given the thread title anyway. I'm sure the other teams would sacrifice one or 2 riders to find out how strong Astana is or who their main man is as well.

Ok now, they'd hopefully be in prime shape in July since that should be their main focus. Of course, that's the ideal situation. 

Up the road with those 4 maybe. 2 guys peel away (I feel it's more probably AC and LL are left actually and if this is the case, then there's no doubt Alberto would be the leader).

If it's AC & LA left, well, I see your point for sure and I mentioned that this is where it gets interesting.

Your theory is highly plausible indeed and in fact, I'll go further to say that when one man goes, the other would also try to shed the rest of the group not long after the first man goes. This is in view of his own hopes in the GC so that he won't lose too much time as well etc.

All in all, this would make for a very nice Le Tour indeed. I don't think it'd be boring at all with the blue train this year - Alberto is one who would attack anyway. Lance wants to prove his abilities. Levi is having ambitions and Kloden is also keen. That's just from Astana.

Saxo Bank will launch Schleck. Caisse will have a strong team too. 

Can't wait.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*remember*



uzziefly said:


> The tour would be the big goal this year.
> 
> Internal strife aside, that would only happen come July so for now, it should be all good.
> 
> ...


I seem to recall a Mr Armstrong telling the world the Jan Ullrich was the strongest cyclist on the planet.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

ttug said:


> I seem to recall a Mr Armstrong telling the world the Jan Ullrich was the strongest cyclist on the planet.


He wasn't 38 back then though.

He'll be in top shape but I do feel age might play a little bit of a factor once everyone is in top form come July.


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

You guys are forgetting about one key stage - the stage 4 TTT, I see it this way:

Stage 1: 15 km TT – LA just said he wants to peak here – why? Because if he can win this stage even by a few seconds he will be in yellow – this means he is the leader – and with LA in yellow why would you not ride to protect the yellow especially when you have…
…the Stage 4 TTT - Astana will crush on the TTT – they will probably win it by quite a margin – and might even occupy all top 9 spots on the GC at this point (this is a no time bonus tour!)…
…next you have the first mountain stage on day 7 – So you have LA in yellow with a 2+ minute lead over everyone else – all you have to do is control the pace on the first big climbing stage and if LA is really feeling punchy (he should be well rested at this point) he just punches it for 10k @ 7% (and a 20 minutes effort) and it is game, stage, tour over! He can now sit on for the next two weeks. Basically LA just needs a 15k ITT, the TTT and a hard as he can go 20 minute effort and the tour is OVER.

Anyone remember 1999???


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

I'm picking Garmin for the TTT. Lance will NOT have what he needs to win this tour, not with the talent in the peloton.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

safetyguy said:


> You guys are forgetting about one key stage - the stage 4 TTT, I see it this way:
> 
> Stage 1: 15 km TT – LA just said he wants to peak here – why? Because if he can win this stage even by a few seconds he will be in yellow – this means he is the leader – and with LA in yellow why would you not ride to protect the yellow especially when you have…
> …the Stage 4 TTT - Astana will crush on the TTT – they will probably win it by quite a margin – and might even occupy all top 9 spots on the GC at this point (this is a no time bonus tour!)…
> ...


Oh man....Contador would be p!ssed.


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## grrrah (Jul 22, 2005)

weltyed said:


> is levi healthy enough? thought he messed up his back during ToC.


I don't think its as bad as the press makes it. a couple weeks ago after he decided to skip MSR, he won a local grass-roots road race. I know its no where near the pro-tour level, but I would think he would be resting a serious injury, or sticking to structured workouts.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

safetyguy said:


> You guys are forgetting about one key stage - the stage 4 TTT, I see it this way:
> 
> Stage 1: 15 km TT – LA just said he wants to peak here – why? Because if he can win this stage even by a few seconds he will be in yellow – this means he is the leader – and with LA in yellow why would you not ride to protect the yellow especially when you have…
> …the Stage 4 TTT - Astana will crush on the TTT – they will probably win it by quite a margin – and might even occupy all top 9 spots on the GC at this point (this is a no time bonus tour!)…
> ...


Umm, what gives you any indication that Lance will have any chance at winning the first TT? He'll probably finish third on his own team behind Levi and Contador. Plus this thing has Fabian written all over it. As far as Astana crushing on the TTT, Garmin and Saxo will probably have a lot to say about that. Hell, I'll even throw Columbia and Liquigas in their as well.


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## jukebox (Sep 6, 2005)

What about Lance faltering at the giro, and Levi possibly becoming leader there?


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

coop said:


> Umm, what gives you any indication that Lance will have any chance at winning the first TT? He'll probably finish third on his own team behind Levi and Contador. Plus this thing has Fabian written all over it. As far as Astana crushing on the TTT, Garmin and Saxo will probably have a lot to say about that. Hell, I'll even throw Columbia and Liquigas in their as well.


LA has stated publicly that he wants to peak for the stage 1 TT (15k is not a prologue)…

So IF (this is the key word), if he can win it he will be in yellow… (The same can be said for AC and Levi). So looking ahead to stage 4:

Please name a team (by individual) that stacks up better on paper than Astana for the TTT. I don’t see one. So IF Astana performs on the TTT then they are in the lead and in clear control of the rest of the tour. IMHO the TTT is the key to this race – put a guy in the lead here from Astana and I do not see any other team being able to put significant time into them during the mountain stages.

One big attack in the mountains - like the first mountain stage - by one of Astana’s leaders (i.e. LA) basically cements the deal. One can easily swap LA for AC – if AC is on better form then it is the same scenario as above. We can go down the list further, Levi for AC, Klodi for Levi – no other team has this depth.

Of course a lot can happen in a three week race – flat tire, crash, illness, etc. but barring these I think my speculative scenario is a likely one.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

levi will NOT be the leader at le Tour.

but maybe you meant giro? is there a start list for teh giro yet?


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

safetyguy said:


> Please name a team (by individual) that stacks up better on paper than Astana for the TTT.


Um, Garmin.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Columbia and Saxo Bank as well. The TTT could be amazing this year!

:thumbsup:


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

pretender said:


> Um, Garmin.


Astana has 5-6 extremely good TTers - no other team has 5, or 4 or even 3??? So again, explain to me how Garmin or Columbia or Saxo stacks up better than Astana.

LA, AC, Levi, Kloden, Popo, Horner, Zubeldia...

Not saying that Astana is guaranteed to win - but I see them putting serious time into the other GC contenders - poor Evans he is alredy going to be down several minutes by the end of stage 4, Sastre too probably...


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## botto (Jul 22, 2005)

safetyguy said:


> Astana has 5-6 extremely good TTers - no other team has 5, or 4 or even 3??? So again, explain to me how Garmin or Columbia or Saxo stacks up better than Astana.
> 
> LA, AC, Levi, Kloden, Popo, Horner, Zubeldia...
> 
> Not saying that Astana is guaranteed to win - but I see them putting serious time into the other GC contenders - poor Evans he is alredy going to be down several minutes by the end of stage 4, Sastre too probably...


it's not about the parts, but the sum of all parts. duh.


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## gray8110 (Dec 11, 2001)

safetyguy said:


> Astana has 5-6 extremely good TTers - no other team has 5, or 4 or even 3??? So again, explain to me how Garmin or Columbia or Saxo stacks up better than Astana.


Garmin:
Zabriskie, Millar, Vande Velde, Wiggins, Tuft, Hesjedal, Pate. All have been national or world TT champs and/or have previous top 5s in grand tour TTs. There are even more national/world/Olympic TT podiums in there as well.

Astana and Garmin are very close on paper in that respect. Columbia and Saxo Bank don’t have the sheer time trial talent, but they have a history of doing well in TTTs that can’t be discounted. The thing is, a TTT has very little to do with who has the strongest time trialists. The efforts really aren’t the same at all – a TTT is more like a breakaway and technique and execution play as much of a role as sheer force.


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

gray8110 said:


> Garmin:
> Zabriskie, Millar, Vande Velde, Wiggins, Tuft, Hesjedal, Pate. All have been national or world TT champs and/or have previous top 5s in grand tour TTs. There are even more national/world/Olympic TT podiums in there as well.
> 
> Astana and Garmin are very close on paper in that respect. Columbia and Saxo Bank don’t have the sheer time trial talent, but they have a history of doing well in TTTs that can’t be discounted.  The thing is, a TTT has very little to do with who has the strongest time trialists. The efforts really aren’t the same at all – a TTT is more like a breakaway and technique and execution play as much of a role as sheer force.


I will play a bit more, let me ask you this simple question: Which Team would you rather have:

LA, Levi, AC, Kloden, or

DZ, Millar, CV, Wiggins?

Now factor in their slow (ha) guys... barring some mechanical or crash I don't think it will be that close. Even if Garmin manages to win CV (and I like him alot) will be completly outclassed in the mountains. But I too am looking forward to stage 4.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

Vande Velde beat Armstrong by the same margin that Leipheimer beat Zabriskie in the ATOC ITT.

I'll take Garmin over Astana in the TTT, thankyouverymuch.


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## cervelo-van (Aug 29, 2008)

Hey people I am a real newbie to all this cycling, but I did read Johan Bruneel book, and psychology played a big part with him and Armstrong. I suspect that some of this may be seeding the media with doubts about who is their leader and that there might be some dissent in the Astana camp.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

The importance of media psych-out games is exaggerated atmho.


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

pretender said:


> Vande Velde beat Armstrong by the same margin that Leipheimer beat Zabriskie in the ATOC ITT.
> 
> I'll take Garmin over Astana in the TTT, thankyouverymuch.


OK np on my end with you taking them - indeed, I personally like them and many of thier riders - I am not saying that they can't win just that they do not match up as well.

Lets recap - 8 TdF titles, 2x 2nd place, several 3 - 5th places vs. Gamin TdF palmares... So while it is possible for Garmin to win - at this point not very probable... but we digress.

My original point is that the TTT will likely be decisive - couple that with one major effort in an early mountain stage and the TdF will be over.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

safetyguy said:


> Please name a team (by individual) that stacks up better on paper than Astana for the TTT. I don’t see one. So IF Astana performs on the TTT then they are in the lead and in clear control of the rest of the tour. IMHO the TTT is the key to this race – put a guy in the lead here from Astana and I do not see any other team being able to put significant time into them during the mountain stages.


Garmin:

Wiggins
VandeVelde
Millar
Hesjedal
Zabriskie
Tuft

Add 3 more who won't matter because the 5th across the line is the ticker. Astana doesn't have a prayer in the world, and I'll go so far as to say they have a pretty damned solid TTT team themselves.

I don't believe an Astana rider will be on the top step of the podium this year. I believe it will go to another team, both because of the infighting in Astana's camp, and because the whole team has a cocky attitude that they will triumph. And hubris is the fall of many a sportsman.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

safetyguy said:


> OK np on my end with you taking them - indeed, I personally like them and many of thier riders - I am not saying that they can't win just that they do not match up as well.
> 
> Lets recap - 8 TdF titles, 2x 2nd place, several 3 - 5th places vs. Gamin TdF palmares... So while it is possible for Garmin to win - at this point not very probable... but we digress.
> 
> My original point is that the TTT will likely be decisive - couple that with one major effort in an early mountain stage and the TdF will be over.


Seriously, previous performances by Lance Armstrong are a moot and wasted point in this discussion. He does not and will not have the same form he had when he won 7 straight. This makes him baggage.

Garmin wins the TTT. Saxo Bank wins the 1st ITT.


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## gray8110 (Dec 11, 2001)

safetyguy said:


> I will play a bit more, let me ask you this simple question: Which Team would you rather have:
> 
> LA, Levi, AC, Kloden, or
> 
> ...


Drop LA and Wiggins from your list and Slipstream <a href="http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/giro08/?id=results/giro081">won the TTT in the Giro</a> last year and Astana wasn't competitive. Judging by LA's TTs in Cali compared to Wiggins in Paris Nice... right now I'd take Garmin in a TTT. Garmin isn't a great team to support CVV in the overall - nor would I consider CVV a 5-star contender, but Astana hasn't shown that they have the TTT prowess that Disco & USPS had. All four of your Astana guys are overall TDF contenders - in that respect, there is no comparison.


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## tidi (Jan 11, 2008)

*don't forget*

that Lance will not put himself on the line if he cannot win. period. 
however i do believe the giro will be a major factor for the tour because this year is new territory for Lance.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Safetyguy, are you serious in that you think LA would be able to beat Fabian in the first ITT?

I'm an Astana fan, and also a LA fan might I add but hey, I'm not drinking what's in your tea. Why? Coz that first stage has either FC or LL written all over it in more likelihood than not.

Or, AC even. Lance Armstrong will be an asset to Astana without a doubt, but he might not be as good.

And, your comparison of Astana's TTT squad vs Garmin is off in that you bring Astana's previous GT palmares into the equation when comparing the TTT abilities of the squad. 



safetyguy said:


> pretender said:
> 
> 
> > Vande Velde beat Armstrong by the same margin that Leipheimer beat Zabriskie in the ATOC ITT.
> ...


Comparing apples to beets here. 

Garmin focuses on the TTT - Astana doesn't. That in itself plays a HUGE difference as to how either team will approach it. It's their main stage for the Tour because it would showcase them as a team. Sure, Farrar might feature and win one or 2 sprints but that's something else. 

Of course, Astana has a very strong squad and they'd more likely than not, finish in the top 3 for that stage. 

But, if they don't work together enough in a TTT situation, they won't be able to fully harness their abilities as well. Also, it's not about how strong you are, it's about how the weakest rider is used best. No point having Levi hammer all the way and drop the rest of the team. 

Astana has LL and AC as their top 2 dogs in the TTT with Kloden close behind and LA after that. Then it's Popo. Garmin has Dave Z, Wiggins and well, I'm not sure who's stronger but, all I can say is that, names do not constitute who win a TTT especially.

Without doubt, Astana would use this year's reintroduction of the TTT to try and pull away from the other GC contenders because they have the strongest squad in a TTT based on the other top dog GC guys perhaps. 



//And, to those who say there'll be a lot of infighting between Astana, it's all our speculation and what the media makes it to be. Johan is a master tactician and he'll sort things out come July, no doubt.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

robdamanii said:


> I don't believe an Astana rider will be on the top step of the podium this year. I believe it will go to another team, both because of the infighting in Astana's camp, and because the whole team has a cocky attitude that they will triumph. And hubris is the fall of many a sportsman.


When did they show cockiness? :idea:


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## heathb (Nov 1, 2008)

I don't keep up with all this stuff like you guys, is it true that LA has no intentions of trying to win the Giro?

The way I see it he should kill himself trying to win that Giro. Then he should skip the TDF and try for another at the Vuelta a España.

Then he should retire.

For me the Giro and Vuelta have retained the heart and soul of cycling. And the course of these races are much more interesting to watch.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

uzziefly said:


> When did they show cockiness? :idea:


The whole team attitude (but very much mostly Alberto) is that of "we are the best, look at us on paper, nobody will beat us" and they just gave away Paris-Nice. Tirreno I don't believe they were expecting to win anyway, so that's not an issue.

That kind of attitude will come back to bite them in the a$$ eventually. Contador is too young to be sidled with that kind of attitude and that kind of handicap, and it will eventually crack him (if it didn't already in PN.)

Keep in mind, I actually do like Astana and LA, but I do believe they are not the dominant, impossible to beat team that they are painted to be.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

robdamanii said:


> The whole team attitude (but very much mostly Alberto) is that of "we are the best, look at us on paper, nobody will beat us" and they just gave away Paris-Nice. Tirreno I don't believe they were expecting to win anyway, so that's not an issue.
> 
> That kind of attitude will come back to bite them in the a$$ eventually. Contador is too young to be sidled with that kind of attitude and that kind of handicap, and it will eventually crack him (if it didn't already in PN.)
> 
> Keep in mind, I actually do like Astana and LA, but I do believe they are not the dominant, impossible to beat team that they are painted to be.


Mmm maybe. Then again, most of the best have some form of cockiness (based on other sports and all of course.)

It's confidence to some, arrogance to others. Not saying it's either but I do think a little of it is necessary at times. 

I think you get what I mean but I also understand what you're saying. So, all good! :thumbsup:


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## desmo13 (Jun 28, 2006)

I can't put a pin on something Astana, AC, LL, LA etc. have done warrant your claims of Arrogance/cockiness above and beyond any professional athlete.

But, if there was some there, 1 stage in the ToC, and 2 Stages in Paris-Nice probably shook it out of them.


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## ProRoad (Oct 13, 2008)

Astana has solid tour winning experience, period. Add to that the fact that everyone on the team will bring their A+ game due to the Lance factor. Which is, everyone on the team has always seamed to lift it up a notch when he is there, no matter who is the leader.

Arrogance? no.

No other team even knows what this factor is, they will all be as good as they can be, which is not good enough to beat Astana/Johan.

Remember, a tour is three weeks long....

And I think Lance will gladly be working for Contador by the third week.

Brian


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## Mosovich (Feb 3, 2004)

*Here's what you're all forgetting..*

LA is doing the Giro and I'm sure he'll want and get the A team.. You think those guys can work their arses off and then turn around and be at peak form for the Tour? You are drinking some crazy stuff. Also, if LA doesn't give it his all in the Giro, he needs an arse whooping.. I mean the Tour is not the end all be all, but to me, if you want to be a true champion, you try your best to win more than one race.. Cavendish proved today he wants to be a true champion.. LA finished 125, but I'm glad to see him doing other races.. I just would really like to see him try Flanders or Roubiax. Fignon won San Remo twice.. I know LA is a better champion than him..


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

safetyguy said:


> I will play a bit more, let me ask you this simple question: Which Team would you rather have:
> 
> LA, Levi, AC, Kloden, or
> 
> ...



I think you're overestimating Lance, Astana, and the route as well. Garmin has stated that the first TT and the TTT are their main goals, in hopes of VDV putting time into the other GC riders. Whether or not that happens who knows. I see the first TT as a Cancellara tutor session, especially if he misses out on the Spring Classics. Levi, VDV, Evans, and probably Contador will all be in the top 10. Lance hasn't yet shown that pop he use to have in the old days, so a top 20 would be respectable for him.
As for VDV being outclassed in the mountains, the route isn't quite as decisive as it has been in the past. Only 3 mountain top finishes. The first 2 I think VDV could minimize losses because they're not real long. Obviously Ventoux will be the big decider so who knows?


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

uzziefly said:


> Mmm maybe. Then again, most of the best have some form of cockiness (based on other sports and all of course.)
> 
> It's confidence to some, arrogance to others. Not saying it's either but I do think a little of it is necessary at times.
> 
> I think you get what I mean but I also understand what you're saying. So, all good! :thumbsup:


Indeed. They definitely did get a wakeup call in Paris-Nice and ATOC. Things will probably change, but I don't think that Astana will occupy the top step of the Tour podium this year.


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## identifiler (Dec 24, 2005)

Vuelta ttt prologue results:

1 Liquigas 8.21 (55.33 km/h)
2 Euskaltel - Euskadi 0.08
3 Caisse D'Epargne 0.09
4 Quick Step 0.10
5 Team CSC - Saxo Bank 0.11
6 Tinkoff Credit Systems 0.12
7 Rabobank 0.13
8 Astana 0.14

I have no clue what the TTT route looks like but twist and turn, side winds and execution will Astana way outdone easily by Garmin. 

Why ? Because everyone knowns exactly each others spot and whom they pull, Garmin has specifically trained for TTT, have the players. TTT much like the 4 x 100m is about how you transfer the lead and Astana will not be ready for this task. They have the wattage, they have poor execution, very much like they did in PN and TA already. Sorry folks, if you only look at individuals for TTT results, you are sorely mistaken. Just look at how the spaniards stuck to each other in the Vuelta in the winding streets of Grenada. Euskatel kicking Astana's butt... wow...


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## identifiler (Dec 24, 2005)

BTW the teams that lost most where the ones that had the fifth racer bonking early, the goal is not to have 2-3-4 strong man, the goal is to equal the perfect sum of each 5 players top performance on a single given day. The teams behind where the ones that had the fifth racer getting dropped because of really bad pulls as opposed to constant train.


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

safetyguy,u must be kidding rite...

i really see cancellara all over for the 1st itt.. and i think garmin has a better chance of finishing top in ttt than astana as well...

astana has so many joint leaders and liutenants.. will they give it all out at the ttt? or will they hold back to conserve their energy? some of them might hold back a bit to conserve,that will slow down their ttt for sure....

my choice would be garmin for ttt.... they train specifically for this stage,and i believe they will get it,unless something cocks up of course.. lol


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