# Stage 12 Predictions and Chatter (spoilers)



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

I know I usually post the morning-of, but this 60.5k ITT cruise through the Cinque Terre is what we have been waiting for. We have Danilo DiLuca donning a pink skinsuit for the stage. Many of us didn;t see him as being one of teh top two riders. Yet here he is, 1/2 through the race with a 1:20 lead over Menchov. Behind Menchov you have Rogers, Leipheimer, Pellizotti, and Sastre within 2:00. Basso is just outside of that at 2:03


















If the course is as technical as they say, the best powerhouse bike handler, not time trial specialist, may be the one kissing the podium girls. The past two stages have demonstrated both DiLuca's determination to hang on to the maglia rosa as well as some serious gaps in Levi's descending skills. You may say he is just being safe, but at what cost? With the climbs and descents of this ITT, coupled with twists and turns, many are expected to roll in to the start house on standard road rigs. Some may opt to slap on some extensions, but will that weight penalty be worth it? 

So, who will it be? Will the power of the pink give DiLuca wings? Will Basso finally show off? Will Levi find his handling chops? Will Sastre come out and play? Is Lance gunning for a stage win here (he was carving the corners today)? Is Jens a dark horse? Will Garzelli surprise yet again? Are Pippo's injuries too much? Can someone from Garmin please stand up? If only Salvodelli were racing...

And most importantly, how will this stage affect the overall standing?

I haven't a clue.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Savoldelli won't do much. He can't really climb that well now if I'm not wrong. 

Levi's crash was pretty hard. I wonder if he'll be in good shape. 

I'm sure he wants to win it but as far as pink goes, Sean Kelly made a good point that Levi would be more conerned with reducing the gap to Menchov and Di Luca too since there are more mountain stages to come. Additionally, Levi could gain more form as the race progresses too.


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

*But what about*

Rogers?
Can't believe you lads are neglecting him 
Prediction:
1. Rogers will have the TT of his life and take the Maglia Rosa.
2. The "Killer"(geez ) will show the tenacity of a Pitbull on a Pomeranian and stay in top 3 in the GC
3. Bass will have a smashing good TT, and move into top 3.
4. Levi, Levi, Levi. 
5. Lance who 
6. Dark horse Simoni could always do something special, he is a great technical rider, or maybe Lovkvist could shine again.

Crank up the Espresso machine tomorrow AM lads, it'll be great fun.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

-Levi had a nasty crash, which has me a little worried, but I will still cast my vote with Levi.
-Sastre will ride a pretty good TT and keep himself in a good GC position
-DiLuca will lose time and the pink jersey
-Lance will surprise everyone and have a top 10 finish
-Menchov is the dangerous one here. If Levi's crash prevents a stage victory, Menchov will be in pink
-Rogers is a good time trialist, but he will lose time here
-Too many people have written off Basso. He will not be in pink after this stage, but he will gain about a minute on it

I don't know; just a guess.

Off work again tommorow; I love having my weekend in the middle of the week


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## JoelS (Aug 25, 2008)

I have no idea, but I think it'll be interesting.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

Going with the dark horse in the dark kit, Sastre. Levi 2nd in the fade kit


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

I think it will be between Menchov and Di Luca and agree with other poster, Armstrong will likely finish in top 10. If the course ends up being as advertised, Leipheimer will suffer due to his poor bike handling skills and we already know he won't be able to sit in his aero tuck the whole time.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Levi, Rogers and Menchov will be the dangerous ones for DiLuca, out of those three, Menchov looks good to me but I think that they will be the top 3 tomorrow with Menchov ending up in pink.

The other GC contenders like Basso and Sastre may gain some time on DiLuca but they wont be in pink. Basso is trying to stay close and will have to do something in the later mountains... but I think he'll do a decent ride and be one of the main threat for the latter half of the Giro. Sastre will be average, not too far but not too great. Simoni will again lose time... I have no idea how Pellizotti can do...


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

you have DiLuca, Rogers, Menchov, Armstrong, and Simoni in the top five for the stage. who is your pick to take the stage?
(i know i dont have my pick out yet, but im just wonderin)


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

lolz I love the LA analysis!

My side-bet prediction: one of the GC contenders will crash and lose a big chunk of time.
Have you LOOKED at the friggin course map? It looks like my lower intestine! 

Di Luca. Will. Win.


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## rhauft (Aug 8, 2006)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> I have said it before and I will say it again...


of this I have no doubt...


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## Cyclo-phile (Sep 22, 2005)

I'm expecting strong performances from Di Luca, Rogers, and Zabriskie.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

I'm going to go with Menchov for the win. He has won GTs before, has shown fitness already this Giro, and he's always been a good TTer. I think his time has come to put it all together in something other than the Vuelta.

Basso in 2006 could TT with the best of them. Assuming he still has even 90% of that in him, I see him making a move for second.

DiLuca rides out of his skin to take 3rd.

Darkhorse stage win...Cancellara. He's in the race you know...and been really quiet. On paper he's the best pure power rider out there, the question is where is the form? He's shown great TT handling skills before so I don't think the course will be an issue for him.

Other top 10:
Rodgers. Sure he's a three time WC champ, but I don't think he's as good as some of the other guys. Back when he won, guys like Ullrich and Armstrong didn't even race the WC, and I suspect they would have slapped him around and ate his lunch had they wanted to.

We also have Zabriskie and Millar who have been quiet, and once upon a time were great TTers. They should put in top 10 rides as well.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

uzziefly said:


> Savoldelli won't do much. He can't really climb that well now if I'm not wrong.
> 
> Levi's crash was pretty hard. I wonder if he'll be in good shape.
> 
> I'm sure he wants to win it but as far as pink goes, Sean Kelly made a good point that Levi would be more conerned with reducing the gap to Menchov and Di Luca too since there are more mountain stages to come. Additionally, Levi could gain more form as the race progresses too.


RE Savoldelli...You've mentioned him in a couple threads...you realize he retired last year?


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

DiLuca will win. He is in outstanding condition, he has done the course several times from what I've read, and the course suits him. Looks like a bite-size version of L-B-L ! Most important of all, he goes last and will get the split times of those ahead of him.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

Einstruzende said:


> I
> 
> Darkhorse stage win...Cancellara. He's in the race you know...and been really quiet. On paper he's the best pure power rider out there, the question is where is the form? He's shown great TT handling skills before so I don't think the course will be an issue for him.


he pulled out today. And then he started to bash the time trial.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> Well, I have no idea, but here is my predictions with editorial - you might not like what I'm going to say, but it will bring color to your day ; )
> 
> Levi - this guy has been overblown since day 1. He's a great support rider and good at TT, but he lacks tech skills and the previous days skills this was on display. Top five, but at the bottom. Levi is proof that American's are a little too lacking in their understanding of various races. I have said it before and I will ay it again, this is the giro, not the sterile tour, you can gain or lose time on areas other than flat TT and mountains.
> 
> ...


I have a quick question:

Everyone has various opinions about the riders that they like, do not like, believe in, or do not believe in. That is quite OK, and I enjoy the discussions and debates on this forum. However, I do not quite grasp how questions over Levi's technical skills is in any way related to Americans and their understanding of races. Were you perhaps saying that Levi's status as a favorite in this race is demonstrative of ignorance on behalf of American cycling fans that believe that he can win?
In some ways I believe that people are counting their chickens before they hatch by questioning the performance of Leipheimer and Basso, counting them out of contention due to "substandard" performance over the first half of the Giro. Both of these riders have been in all of the important breakaways and are well within contention for the leader's jersey. They have both shown that they can improve their form and turn up the aggression in the latter part of a stage race. I may be horribly mistaken, as I am not a psychic, but I would not be surprised to see Basso and Leipheimer on the podium at the end of this race with DiLuca out of contention. Leipheimer is light years ahead of the majority of the pro's in this race, and has stood on multiple podiums in grand tours (more than Menchov and as many as Sastre) so I still fail to understand why so many people consider it so outrageous to consider him a GC contender. I do not mean to go off on a tangent about Levi's ability, as that is a matter for another thread. I will return to the subject at hand.
If the argument that you were making is that Americans are somewhat ignorant of cycling and this is evidenced by support of Leipheimer, I believe you are somewhat mistaken. I can recognize the image, like my coworkers that have never heard of Levi Leipheimer or Dennis Menchov or a "domestique" that are scratching their heads because Lance Armstrong is not winning the Giro, even though I have tried to explain to them multiple times how team dynamics function in cycling and that Armstrong did not intend to win this race in the first place. Those are not the people that believe that he can win. I am American, and I love the cobbled classics of spring and the Giro, and I believe that Levi can win. I am not saying that he "will" win, just that I believe that it is possible and that he is a real GC threat. Did you know that an Italian prior Giro winner cited Levi as his favorite? I have read several interviews with European pro's who cited Levi as the biggest threat in this race. 
Therefore, my question is as follows: How does the belief that Levi Leipheimer can win the Giro d'Italia substantiate the theory that American's are "ignorant of various races?"


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

den bakker said:


> he pulled out today. And then he started to bash the time trial.


Really?

I am pretty disappointed with Fabian this year.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

My picks:

1. Sastre
2. DiLuca
3. Leipheimer.

The Giro will be DiLuca's to lose after this stage.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> I know, I never made the call. I think it might be a dark horse for the stage win, but, I'm a little hesitant to say this - I think De Luca isn't going to lose two minutes and might do a lot better than that. Did you see the guy on the stage yesterday? He clearly has power, to go up a 15% hill, albeit 600 meters, like he did after all those miles is crazy. Then to go on and descend and power to the finish like that - man, that's a display of force and skill. I think barring a crash if he does lose the jersey, it wont be by much.


diluca sticks out in my mind as one who showed he has the chops for tomorrow. but i dont know if one day "recovery" stage is enough. i know he will be gunning. he might still not win the stage but keep the jersey. he stated he wanted two minutes to feel safe, but maybe he needs to feel a bit of pressure, too. 
still not sure whi i wanna pick. sastre is n my mind, too. it will probably be someone nobody thinks.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

thechriswebb said:


> Really?
> 
> I am pretty disappointed with Fabian this year.


Yea, same here. Ever get the feeling that he's one of the guys that might be involved in the rumored biological passport violations? Perhaps he know's he's being watched. Call me a conspiracy theorist ...


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Einstruzende said:


> RE Savoldelli...You've mentioned him in a couple threads...you realize he retired last year?


Yup. I was referring to how he won't be as great if he was in since Welty mentioned him. :thumbsup:


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Menchov is a little clumsy on technicals and loses time or falls off the bike completely. I don't see him taking tops, but still top 10 result. LA needs to save energy for the upcoming stages to position for Levi and he's on record for being a little more risk averse these days so I don't see him coming in even top 10 tomorrow. 

as for Zabriskie, I'd love to see him gain some attention but he doesn't seem to have the motivation.

Levi at the top if his injuries aren't as bad as it seems. Basso second, Sastre third, following by DiLuca.


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

Mhmmm...I'm surprised no ones mentioned Bruseghin? He needs to make up some time to be as competitive as I think he should be, and I think he'll do pretty well. 

10 - Pate 
9 - Sastre
8 - Basso
7 - Lance
6 - Wiggins
5 - Di Luca
4 - Menchov
3 - Bruseghin
2 - Levi
1 - Rogers


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> I'll also add that I have never scene Levi put in a formidable uphill attack. I'd even go so far as to say Cadel Evens, as rider consider a bore, puts in more attacks and rides more aggressively. Levi is a ride-at-pace mountain climber and a good flat TT. This is where he gets his time and he has proven that time and again. Amstrong is too, but guess what, Armstrong used to attack. Not every year, but most of the years. Yes, you can win a grand tour by climbing at pace and getting time back on the TT. But the giro, this particular giro and where we're at - the guy has sat back way too often and lost time on silly areas. 20 seconds, 10 seconds there. You can't do that, not to people who have won the event before and in general you just shouldn't do it. Again, least we forget Di Luca has won before and he has won Liege and Amstel two classics all GC riders contend.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why is Levi's team boring? Because they haven't done any work up till yesterday for a short bit?

No breaks? Popo has been attacking here and there to be fair.

Just sayin. 

Basso sat back as well fwiw. AND, Levi only lost time (13 seconds) because of the crash on stage 2 (well, could be stage 3 but you know, that early stage) and many, many riders got caught out at the back because of that.

About his descending, well yeah, but not everyone can be the best at all aspects of bike riding now can they? If they were, you'd have clones of Contadors, Armstrongs, Valverdes etc perhaps. 

Other than that, he's been with the front group on the climbs, even did make an attack with Rogers etc but decided not to go for it (the small group) because there was a crash at the back. Why attack so early on anyway? Again, Basso hasn't. Sastre hasn't. He tried to go once when Di Luca won while in pink but couldn't (Sastre that is). Menchov attacked once. It's still early to go all out and keep attacking over and over.

Di Luca does it because he also HAS to in view of some of the longer mountain stages and also due to his worry about the TT. Sure, the course suits him with the technicalities etc. But, it's also long enough at a high pace and that doesn't suit him. 

Of course, you'll probably disagree.


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## oily666 (Apr 7, 2007)

The Giro is looking more like a tune up for Levi and Co. Livestrong wants the TDF. If Basso had the groceries, we'd have seen something by know. DiLuca is in the best form of his life and with a course so technical many riders won't even be on TT bikes, I have to put him in the top three for stage 12. The stage is less of a TT and more of a long classics style break away so, the Killer will do well. Even if he's beaten, I don't think it will put his GQ standing in jeopardy.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

levi will do well and make up some time.
i think menchov will take it, though, i would rather levi.

di luca. cracks.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

JohnHenry said:


> levi will do well and make up some time.
> i think menchov will take it, though, i would rather levi.
> 
> di luca. cracks.


Now, as a Levi fan, I don't mind if Di Luca cracks, but that's just wishful thinking! 

I hope he doesn't crack since that won't make for a very interesting race. Hmm.. Maybe it might.


As for my pick, as usual, Alberto Contador. Ok, no, I'll change seeing as I've never been right these few days.

I pick, Winona Ryder.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

uzziefly said:


> Now, as a Levi fan, I don't mind if Di Luca cracks, but that's just wishful thinking!


I stand by my prediction. Di Luca not in the top 10 or at least, near the butt end . may i eat crow.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

JohnHenry said:


> I stand by my prediction. Di Luca not in the top 10 or at least, near the butt end . may i eat crow.


They shoot crow over here. 

Shall I send them your address so they can FedEx em over? 

I'll stick to wildebeest thank you very much. And petting lemurs and rubbing hula girls.

Yes, ton of c()de in there but like you don't know!


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## KMan (Feb 3, 2004)

*VeloNews predictions*

VeloNews posted predictions. Not that I agree - just posting them for the thread.

www.MLKimages.com

Given all the factors, the likely stage result is 1. Leipheimer, 2. Armstrong, 3. Rogers, 4. Menchov, 5. Basso. A more certain forecast is that the time gaps will be huge!


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## gizzard (Oct 5, 2005)

Creakyknees said:


> lolz I love the LA analysis!
> 
> My side-bet prediction: one of the GC contenders will crash and lose a big chunk of time.
> Have you LOOKED at the friggin course map? It looks like my lower intestine!
> ...


+1 Creaky, I reckon we'll see a crash today and I think Di Luca will be in pink at the end, although the time gaps will be smallish. We're still just over half way and there is a lot of racing to go.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

i guess i need to pick, being as the bottom few have left the start house. i finally watched got a chance to watch yesterdays stage, and LA looked good. then i remembered how he handled the bike during the final ITT the year the chicken had the yellow skin suit and baked it 4 or so times. of course, those were all the mechanics fault, right?

its a total toss-up. i wanna pick sastre, but he says this is not his thing. i also think LA might shock everyone and throw down, especially as tomorrow is a flat stage and he has been told he has old, short legs and a long tongue.
i will just go with levi. i mean, he has let me down in the past, so i wont be crushed when diluca pulls "the ride of his life."

on a side note, do you think the garmin guys use the "virtual training partner" function during the ITT? they send guys out hard to get time-check data. wouldnt it make sense, if time allowed, to swap out an SD card and run the VTP? i would prefer that to JV constantly jawing in my ear, "goodgoodgood. keepgoing. youredoinggreat. fasterfasterfaster.yougotthis.goodgoodgood. keepgoing. youredoinggreat. fasterfasterfaster.


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

*Zabriskie*

is most certainly NOT having the ride of his life today.... Thought he would do better than this.
Something off in the Primavera last night??


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> Well, I have no idea, but here is my predictions with editorial - you might not like what I'm going to say, but it will bring color to your day ; )
> 
> Levi - this guy has been overblown since day 1. He's a great support rider and good at TT, but he lacks tech skills and the previous days skills this was on display. Top five, but at the bottom. Levi is proof that American's are a little too lacking in their understanding of various races. I have said it before and I will ay it again, this is the giro, not the sterile tour, you can gain or lose time on areas other than flat TT and mountains.
> 
> ...


Well done!


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

Einstruzende said:


> Yea, same here. Ever get the feeling that he's one of the guys that might be involved in the rumored biological passport violations? Perhaps he know's he's being watched. Call me a conspiracy theorist ...


It's more than a feeling.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

we are now at the top 20, so 3 minute intervals are in effect.

i cant wait to see this tonight. they are talking that the time cut is now 25%, yet some may still be cut.


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

squadra said:


> is most certainly NOT having the ride of his life today.... Thought he would do better than this.
> Something off in the Primavera last night??


Zabriskie's primavera doesn't come with the special sauce.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

armstrong on the course. this will be interesting. at least he was in the top 20. imagine if he took off at the 1 minute intervals...


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## hawker12 (Oct 19, 2003)

Thanks to Universal Sports for the commercial-free feed, it's been meraviglioso!!


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

what bike setups are they using? anyone running extensions or are they all standard road bike? with climbing wheels or deep dish/trispoke?


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## kmac (Feb 13, 2007)

weltyed said:


> what bike setups are they using? anyone running extensions or are they all standard road bike? with climbing wheels or deep dish/trispoke?


Lots of clip on aero bars on the standard road bike and wheels. Not many deep dish wheels.


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

FondriestFan said:


> Zabriskie's primavera doesn't come with the special sauce.


Indeed!


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

*Whats interesting*

is that in the past few years, no one, in the Giro anyway, is making those huge solo breakaways like we saw MP do in the '99 version, just riding away from the field.
Stronger field, better doping controls  no "Special Primavera" sauce ?


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## JohnStonebarger (Jan 22, 2004)

Armstrong isn't even using an aero helmet? WTF? How hot is it?


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## rhauft (Aug 8, 2006)

Sastre on course with full aero kit including Cervelo P3, skinsuit & aero helmet...


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Armstrong at 6th fastest after 18km.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

squadra said:


> no "Special Primavera" sauce ?


Don't kid yourself. There is probably less, but none is utterly ridiculous.


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## kmac (Feb 13, 2007)

Di Luca on course with no clip on aero bars. Looks like just standard set up.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

JohnStonebarger said:


> Armstrong isn't even using an aero helmet? WTF? How hot is it?



Apparently very hot and humid but I'm too lazy to look it up.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

Good shots of the first descent with the cameras following Armstrong. Looks very technical, hard to not see Levi losing 10s of seconds to riders like Armstrong and Di Luca thru that section.


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## rhauft (Aug 8, 2006)

Levi on course with road bike/clip-ons & road helmet...


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Lance @ 29seconds off and 5th after the second time check.

No non aero helmet disadvantage there


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Janez Brajkovic is SLAYING it.

18 secs faster than Wiggins who is over a minute plus faster than Visconti's 2nd intermediate.


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

gah, di lucas looks so unweidly when not flying uphill...


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

uzziefly said:


> Janez Brajkovic is SLAYING it.


Garzelli appears to be the man to judge the favorites against so far.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

By the way, Edvald Boasan Hagen had a VERY good time.

He sure is looking more and more like an all rounder ala Valverde, but can TT better.

He's got a very bright future ahead of him IMO. Great job!


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Garzelli appears to be the man to judge the favorites against so far.


Hmm but I haven't heard Garzelli's times here on EuroSport or I missed it.

So, it's Wiggins who takes the overall lead for now at 1:36:28 for now ahead of Visconti.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Levi goes fastest at the first time check.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Brajkovic takes fastest at 1:35:43


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

uzziefly said:


> Levi goes fastest at the first time check.


Lets see how much he loses on the descent now.

Garzelli was 30-40 second faster than Brajkovic at the 2nd and 3rd time checks.

Armstrong looks like he cooked himself, way back at 3rd time check.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Good shots of the first descent with the cameras following Armstrong. Looks very technical, hard to not see Levi losing 10s of seconds to riders like Armstrong and Di Luca thru that section.



Brajkovic is flying and LL had a very good time at the 1st check but Menchov just came through best. Hmmm...

Hard to see Garzelli not being in the top 3


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Menchov goes fastest after the first intermediate!!!


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Lets see how much he loses on the descent now.
> 
> Garzelli was 30-40 second faster than Brajkovic at the 2nd and 3rd time checks.


11 ahead of Jani at the end...


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

*Oh man*

My horse Rogers is messing the bed, so to speak


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

Levi looks to have only lost a handful seconds on the descent to the likes of Garzelli and Armstrong.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Levi looks to have only lost a handful seconds on the descent to the likes of Garzelli and Armstrong.


What a difference descending alone and taking risks can make vs. descending in a pack sometimes.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

squadra said:


> My horse Rogers is messing the bed, so to speak


Basso isn't setting the world on fire either.


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

Some surprises this morning. Thought Basso would be doing MUCH better.
What did the anouncer say, Rogers is having a "Grotty" day in the saddle LOL! So true.


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## kmac (Feb 13, 2007)

Lance finishes in currently 6th. Looks tired.


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

Man, Levi is having a great ride. I think this is what we all wanted to see, Levi firing on all 12 cyclinders.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

why is sastre in full-on TT? he said himself he isnt the greatest TT. i would think with this technical course they would all be on roadies.

maybe cervelo said they needed him to ride the P3?


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

Menchov looks to be in a world of hurt


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

Menchov is tearing this up


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

squadra said:


> Man, Levi is having a great ride. I think this is what we all wanted to see, Levi firing on all 12 cyclinders.


Only problem is Menchov is having an even better one


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

Oops, never mind.....
No wonder he looked to be hurting, he is tearing it apart!


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

levi up :30 at the time check.

BUT RAINDROPS???


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

Menchov just crushed Levi's time.


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

bahaha, the guy touching Di Luca and Danilo swatting at him. The guy's hat then flies off.


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## kmac (Feb 13, 2007)

I love this TT format. This is a significant "race of truth!"


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

> Menchov just crushed Levi's time.


Crushed it? Man, he stomped on it, picked it up, tore it in two and threw it in the trash!
The lads who picked Menchov for today were on it.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

menchov faster than levi at the check


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

FondriestFan said:


> Menchov just crushed Levi's time.


Looks like it's going to be Menchov, Levi, Di Luca with Di Luca in striking distance for the mountains.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

menchov better not have cooked himself at that check.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

menchov in virtual pink now?
he better not have cooked it....

levi better get his descending in order and diluca better just grind it out


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

Looking at the times, a certain Texan should be happy with how he performed in his first real test this srping. All things considered, and pretty good time.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

pippo had a good ride.


levi coming in...1:34:39
the lead for now.


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

No wonder Rogers had a poor ride, he has a giant sperm on his head!


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

Oh those Russians.....


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

menchov is a golden god


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Menchov lost 20 seconds to Leipheimer on the descent fwiw. Levi does descend pretty alright/well today alright.

Has Levi dropped some form? Is Menchov coming into form?

Will either topple Di Luca in the days to come.

Can Sastre leapfrog these guys instead?

Not a bad ride by Lance at all indeed.

Fantastic ride by Bradley Wiggins!!


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

squadra said:


> All things considered, and pretty good time.


Unfortunately we don't get to consider all things, so it's really hard to say how happy he should be with it.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

*Lol*

You read it here, first.
http://forums.roadbikereview.com/showthread.php?p=2171811&page=2

Menchov for the stage

LL does well.

diLuca didnt crack, but he did finish bottom half of the top 10. 

Looks like descending and being able to stay in your ITT "boring bubble" isn't what it is all about after all...LL still did great


Way to go LL!!! Menchov did pretty freakin' well for guy with no _panache_ *lol*

Hey, Uzzie! Looks like you can keep your shipment of crow.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

cant wait to watch it tonight...


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

weltyed said:


> why is sastre in full-on TT? he said himself he isnt the greatest TT. i would think with this technical course they would all be on roadies.
> 
> maybe cervelo said they needed him to ride the P3?


He used more traditional road bars.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

This was a fantastic TT, a true test on varied terrain.
Menchov - fantastic ride !!!! 
Now let the race begin!!! Sastre, Di Luca, Menchov etc are going to give us a great truly great contest. 
The sub-plot provided by Lance/Levi will be interesting. 
The sprinters tried to upset Cav, but have failed even thoiugh he is obviously less than 100% fit.
Giro v TDF - no contest. Giro wins hands down - better racing, better scenery.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

oops!


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Nice stage! Menchov's previous stage win makes me think he could hold the pink all the way, he's climbing well but knowing DiLuca, he'll give it all he has to regain the lead in the mountains coming and with his explosiveness, it might just happen... Levi is also well postitioned and has a strong and smart team although I don't see him dropping Menchov. Both could be dropped only by very strong and quick accelerations (DiLuca? Sastre?).

For the others, I don't think anyone can recover enough time, Sastre will attack but he's 2:52 behind and there is no way the others will let him get away too much... Maybe the Liquigas team will switch the leadership from Basso to Pellizotti who seems much better positioned now but Basso predicted he'd be stronger in the last week, I don't scratch him off just yet, if he can have some great days like he did in his last two Giros, he still could be dangerous but can he do it post suspension? Gibo is far but in the top 10, knowing him, he'll try something and maybe finish in the top 5.

How's the last TT looking? How much will it serve to re-shuffle the top riders? Menchov, DiLuca, Levi... I think that's our final podium right here but in what order?


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

anyone else notice that LA was frequently reaching behind himself? looked to me like his collarbone might be bugging him and he had to stretch occasionally. 

also at one point I thought I saw him take a musette ?????


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## iamnotfilip (Jul 9, 2007)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> Astana is boring because they are a team of 150 pound climbers...


Agreed. Plus Levi is overhyped on this forum, much like all American riders, but I guess that is understandable as most posters here are American. Levi is a good, actually a great rider, but just doesn't have the heart to push it to the next level when it really matters.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

you must have missed Horner and Levi lighting it up a few stages ago on a final climb, forcing Di Luca to bridge. Also Merckx was as dominant a climber as there ever was - but as a historian of the sport you know that you can't really compare his era to today. Races then were more controlled, the division between team leader and domestique was much clearer, and there were no race radios, which have changed tactics. 

Levi is aggressive when he can and when it makes sense. He rides the ToC aggressively, he rode the US national championships incredibly aggressively a few years ago. He'll no doubt make some attacks over the rest of the Giro to try and take time back from Menchov.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

Originally Posted by bikesarethenewblack
Astana is boring because they are a team of 150 pound climbers...

p.s. you added about 15 pounds to Levi..


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

stevesbike said:


> Originally Posted by bikesarethenewblack
> Astana is boring because they are a team of 150 pound climbers...
> 
> p.s. you added about 15 pounds to Levi..


I think he got it right, Lance makes the team average higher...


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## Mosovich (Feb 3, 2004)

*Diluca's bars..*

He didn't have extentiions like everyone else.. What's up with that? Seems like Sostre made a good bike choice.. Drop bars on a TT bike! What will we see next??


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

stevesbike said:


> p.s. you added about 15 pounds to Levi..


And about 25lbs to Brajkovic. Somebody feed that guy a meal. It's like the second coming of the Chicken.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Creakyknees said:


> anyone else notice that LA was frequently reaching behind himself? looked to me like his collarbone might be bugging him and he had to stretch occasionally.
> 
> also at one point I thought I saw him take a musette ?????


He did take a musette. Pretty sure Levi did as well, I saw him toss his bottle, then they cut away and when it cut back to him he had a new bottle and was eating a gel.

Lance always is reaching back to adjust his shorts. Maybe he gets a lot of wedgies???


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

I believe Levi can take 40 seconds from Menchov with some of the stages to go, but Di Luca is nearly unstoppable. Think Levi can take more than 6s off Di Luca, including the time bonuses? Remember, Levi can't sprint as well as Di Luca if it comes down to it.


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

iliveonnitro said:


> I believe Levi can take 40 seconds from Menchov with some of the stages to go, but Di Luca is nearly unstoppable. Think Levi can take more than 6s off Di Luca, including the time bonuses? Remember, Levi can't sprint as well as Di Luca if it comes down to it.


Wouldn't surprise me if Levi & Sastre take off early on Blockhaus. I'm not sure if Di Luca can hang on the longer climbs.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

that final ITT is pretty short at just 14.4k. there are a few bumps at the start, then it levels out. lots of twists and turns. levi will have to chip away at some of menchov's time before they get there. the gap wont stay at :40, but i think he would need it to be closer than that. i am not certain how the time bonuses are spread out over the next few stages, but levi will need to win at least one stage and prevent menchov from winning another stage and time bonus for him to be comfortable goin in to the ITT.

too bad astana lost horner. they could use someone to attack and bait menchov. can LA, Popo, and Brak do this work? maybe send brak up tehroad to steal the time bonuses? Popo and LA to work?

remain stages that end going up:
14, 16, 17, 19.

EDIT: the reason i said levi needs to win a stage is to get that time bonus. i dont see rabobank letting him finish ahead of menchov unless it is a stage win. 4 chances at summit-finish stages. if levi cant close, astana needs someone up there to take over and nip the line, and bonus, from menchov. it would be in menchovs best interest to sit on levis wheel and attack on the final climb, as levi has trouble accelerating. 

does astana start cutting deals with barloworld and soler?


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## squadra (May 20, 2009)

iamnotfilip said:


> Agreed. Plus Levi is overhyped on this forum, much like all American riders, but I guess that is understandable as most posters here are American. Levi is a good, actually a great rider, but just doesn't have the heart to push it to the next level when it really matters.


Not through any fault of his own, but he was always expected by the masses to don LA's mantle of Uber Grand Tour Machine, big shoes indeed. IMHO, he was and should have been a better classics rider, but has always sacrificed power to keep his mass down to be a competive GC tour rider.
Unfortunatly, Levi has never been a take-the-bull-by-the-horns kind of rider. Now is the time for him to throw down the gauntlet and make some sort of bold move, well, not RIGHT now, but on the next big stage. He can't ride defensively, which has always been his modus operandi.
I had my doubts about his form, but todays performance was outstanding, and i happily eat humble pie regarding it. Hope Tex gives him a big pep talk.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Circlip said:


> And about 25lbs to Brajkovic. Somebody feed that guy a meal. It's like the second coming of the Chicken.



I'm not so sure the Chicken would have performed as well in that ITT.


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

*My biggest surprise*

Gilberto Simoni
I never would have thought he would finish within 45 seconds of Armstrong and Basso, and actually beat David Millar.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

Jesse D Smith said:


> Gilberto Simoni
> I never would have thought he would finish within 45 seconds of Armstrong and Basso, and actually beat David Millar.


I am a Gibo fan. I hope he comes up with something (a stage win)!


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Jesse D Smith said:


> Gilberto Simoni
> I never would have thought he would finish within 45 seconds of Armstrong and Basso, and actually beat David Millar.


Simoni has so many career Giro podium finishes I would never discount his ability to come up with the goods on his own home turf. Not only that, but he should hire himself out as a consultant to Boonen for how to get yourself off the hook for burying your face in a pile of blow that would make Al Pacino jealous.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

rocco said:


> I'm not so sure the Chicken would have performed as well in that ITT.


What do you get when you mix Chicken with a TT bike, sharp descents, and a bit of moisture? Pure entertainment. Possibly a new record also for most bike changes in a single GT stage.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

Circlip said:


> Simoni has so many career Giro podium finishes I would never discount his ability to come up with the goods on his own home turf. Not only that, but he should hire himself out as a consultant to Boonen for how to get yourself off the hook for burying your face in a pile of blow that would make Al Pacino jealous.


mmmmmmmmm, cocaine laced candy.


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## KenS (Jan 28, 2004)

Creakyknees said:


> anyone else notice that LA was frequently reaching behind himself? looked to me like his collarbone might be bugging him and he had to stretch occasionally.


LA has a habit of adjusting/tugging the left side of his shorts. Is that what you meant?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Einstruzende said:


> Yea, same here. Ever get the feeling that he's one of the guys that might be involved in the rumored biological passport violations? Perhaps he know's he's being watched. Call me a conspiracy theorist ...


I desperately want to disagree with you right now........but I can't


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

JohnHenry said:


> You read it here, first.
> http://forums.roadbikereview.com/showthread.php?p=2171811&page=2
> 
> Menchov for the stage
> ...


I already sent it. Looks like you'll just have to keep it in reserve mmkay?

Kthxbai.


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## PhatTalc (Jul 21, 2004)

Wouldn't surprise me if Menchov gained 40 more seconds on Leipheimer. I don't think LL has shown he can win this- if he had got the Pink Jersey in the Cinque terre TT and gained a minute on Menchov, then I would believe. Still, lots of racing to go.


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

As Ive said a hundred times before, Levi finishes on the podium in GRAND TOURS in races involving the elite of the elite cyclists and he is still ripped as "not taking the next step", "below average skills", "cowardly", "non agressive", "over hyped"...exactly how high is the bar here? If you are not Eddie or Lance you're terrible? Levi won the TOC and the US pros (NOT the first one in SC) so that makes him over-hyped? He has olympic medals, GT podiums...geez the guy is top .25% of all cyclists but he sucs? Get a clue. Someone actually reffered to him as a "good" cyclist!! Dave Z is a good cyclist (12 minutes back in the TT), Levi is great.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

bigmig19 said:


> As Ive said a hundred times before, Levi finishes on the podium in GRAND TOURS in races involving the elite of the elite cyclists and he is still ripped as "not taking the next step", "below average skills", "cowardly", "non agressive", "over hyped"...exactly how high is the bar here? If you are not Eddie or Lance you're terrible? Levi won the TOC and the US pros (NOT the first one in SC) so that makes him over-hyped? He has olympic medals, GT podiums...geez the guy is top .25% of all cyclists but he sucs? Get a clue. Someone actually reffered to him as a "good" cyclist!! Dave Z is a good cyclist (12 minutes back in the TT), Levi is great.


well said - lots of people who rip him don't understand grand tour tactics, or think it's still the era of Merckx where riders can just go up the road.


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## kingfisher (Mar 6, 2009)

Levi is the John Stockton of cycling.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

bigmig19 said:


> As Ive said a hundred times before, Levi finishes on the podium in GRAND TOURS in races involving the elite of the elite cyclists and he is still ripped as "not taking the next step", "below average skills", "cowardly", "non agressive", "over hyped"...exactly how high is the bar here? If you are not Eddie or Lance you're terrible? Levi won the TOC and the US pros (NOT the first one in SC) so that makes him over-hyped? He has olympic medals, GT podiums...geez the guy is top .25% of all cyclists but he sucs? Get a clue. Someone actually reffered to him as a "good" cyclist!! Dave Z is a good cyclist (12 minutes back in the TT), Levi is great.


+10000


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

Anyone see the podium girl pic with the one on the right? Heh, there was a pic in the Podium Girls that got deleted. 


....anyone know where I might find it again. :idea:


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## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

For all the talk about how beautiful the scenery was to be for that stage either the cameras did a ###### job of showing it or else they were wrong. That area is really great though. Shame.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

spade2you said:


> Anyone see the podium girl pic with the one on the right? Heh, there was a pic in the Podium Girls that got deleted.
> 
> 
> ....anyone know where I might find it again. :idea:


what was up with teh pic? why would it get deleted?


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## JCavilia (Sep 12, 2005)

weltyed said:


> what was up with teh pic? why would it get deleted?


The young lady was -- how to put it? -- not wearing all the usual garments, and the camera angle (low in front of the stage) was rather revealing. The version that appears on Pez is cropped.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

bigmig19 said:


> As Ive said a hundred times before, Levi finishes on the podium in GRAND TOURS in races involving the elite of the elite cyclists and he is still ripped as "not taking the next step", "below average skills", "cowardly", "non agressive", "over hyped"...exactly how high is the bar here? If you are not Eddie or Lance you're terrible? Levi won the TOC and the US pros (NOT the first one in SC) so that makes him over-hyped? He has olympic medals, GT podiums...geez the guy is top .25% of all cyclists but he sucs? Get a clue. Someone actually reffered to him as a "good" cyclist!! Dave Z is a good cyclist (12 minutes back in the TT), Levi is great.


Of course, bike racing is about winning and Levi hasn't won.

Of course he sucks. He's a loser, no guts, no final kill.

Statistics say so.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I am starting to get tired of posting all of the time to defend Levi. 

I think I will stop.

The people that do not like him never will. There are many who say "Levi will never and can never win a grand tour." He can finish on a dozen more podiums in his career and that attitude will not change. If Levi does manage to win a grand tour, the victory will not be truly accepted and will be blamed on overly tactical or heartless tactics. He can continue to put in outstanding performances on difficult stages with a look of effortlessness and fluidity, and people will continue to call it "boring." He can continue to destroy the most feared and talked about stages in grand tours, like Angliru or yesterdays time trial, and people will continue to completely disregard it. On the merciless Angliru he dropped many of the worlds best climbers and finished right behind his teammate THE worlds greatest climber, and people still think that he is only competitive in time trials. For months everyone has been talking about yesterdays' epic time trial. People wrote off Levi, saying that this is the Giro and not Le Tour and Levi just can't hang in the more challenging Giro. This course would be too difficult, too hilly, too technical, and would favor a more aggressive and well rounded rider. Well, the day after a bad crash and a slow (perhaps sore and stiff) start, he finished second, light years ahead of more "courageous" riders, and throughout the remainder of the course he was actually faster than Menchov. The amount of time that he made up after the beginning of the course was amazing. Yet STILL, Levi is bland, boring, soul-less, and incapable of greatness. Levi is just now peaking, and may have 5 more years of good riding in his legs. His palmares might add up and put him up near the historical greats. He may continue a career of above average class and cleanness, but he will always be Levi. He will always be the somewhat sickly looking, smiling, slightly dorky, nice, humble, and classy guy that never looks like he is suffering on a bike and is obviously from a backwoods area of America in Montana. No matter how many revered GC contenders that actually know him and race with him continue to say that they consider him a threat, there is a type of cyclist and cycling fan that will never like him because he does not convey the stereotypical attitude of European cycling and will never really be popular in the "good old boy's club" of snobby, wannabe elite cyclists that will continue to justify the fact that they are not and will never be nearly as talented as Levi because at least they look and act the part of a proper roadie and he doesn't.


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## djazz (May 16, 2009)

spade2you said:


> Anyone see the podium girl pic with the one on the right? Heh, there was a pic in the Podium Girls that got deleted.
> 
> 
> ....anyone know where I might find it again. :idea:


here


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

I do think there's a difference between a guy like Levi that seems to give it his all and someone like Evans, who made a deal a few years ago with Bettini at the world championships that he'd pull a break to get 8th place and not try to win so he'd end up with enough points to be the UCI #1 rider of that year. That's a wanker.


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## tkavan01 (Jun 24, 2004)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> Telling people to "get a clue" isn't very nice and shows an defensiveness that's not needed. I



wow, coming from you and your great knowledge of probability and statistics, made me spit milk out my nose all over the keyboard.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> Telling people to "get a clue" isn't very nice and shows an defensiveness that's not needed. It's an opinion - but let's get into fact - Levi has not won a grand tour. Period. Not up for debate. He may, but as of this posting, he hasn't. Di Liuca, Sastre, Menchov, Cunego, Gibo - these guys have all won grand tours. Most have won big one day classics. Levi is not in this list. Again, period. right now he's more Beloki than any of the other names.
> 
> As for saying something silly, and it is silly, that "people don't get it, riders don't jsut ride away." Whatever, and I mean, whatever. Do you mean ride away like Levi did in ToC where he took back the race? Or do you mean like Di Luca has during this giro, or Cunego has during his. Or Basso did during his - this list can go on and on and one - but the one certain factor is Levi has never, ever attacked during a grand tour. I know it's opinion, but would you REALLY call Levi a dynamic rider? I doubt it.
> 
> ...


After my big rant a couple of hours ago, I'm actually going to partially agree with you. There was a time (Rabobank, Gerolsteiner) when Levi was the main GC contender and he failed to deliver. Throughout Levi's career he has been a good professional, the consummate teammate, and a consistent threat in time trials. Yet, I agree that he failed to produce any fireworks. 

Back then, my argument was that Levi was a talented professional that deserved his place in the pro peloton. The opposing argument back then was that Levi was a complete dweeb and a waste of time. 

The evidence that I cite for my current argument (that Levi can win a grand tour) is substantiated by the Levi of the past two years. Something that warrants consideration is the fact that Levi did not start cycling seriously until he was far older than most pro's that are able to ascend into the highest ranks. He was almost 25 when he turned domestic pro, almost 27 when he joined the pro tour, and 28 when he first started to produce legitimate results in Europe. Due to his incredible fitness that he developed in his pre-cycling skiing career, Levi was able to produce just enough spotty results to keep attention on him, but he did not yet have the experience to deliver consistently. It was easy to forget that considering that he was 30, an age where many pro's are peaking. He could deliver in time trials, where tactics weren't as complicated and he could rely on his fitness to do well. 

So, if we think about it that way, it makes sense that Levi would be more dangerous now than he was five years ago, as long as he has managed to avoid the past-30 decline (which is very possible) that many people begin to go into. If Levi had turned pro at 19, an age that we would more typically see a big future talent turning pro, then he would have had the experience that he has now at the age of 29. So, my argument is that if you removed the image of Levi Leipheimer from the equation and replaced him with a 29 year old named Francisco Mario Biondi that resembled Fausto Coppi in appearance and demeanor, and gave that person the exact same record that Levi has, that the attitude towards him would be very very different right now. 

I believe that Levi's improvement over the past couple of years is consistent with the amount of miles that he now has in his legs. Unlike the average person, Levi has not allowed his physical condition to deteriorate as he moved into his 30's, and it seems to have improved. He is riding more aggressively these days, and has been showing that he is more than a one trick pony (as I am beginning to see Cancellara) that tries to do well in time trials and get top-20 finishes while helping somebody else win grand tours. He is even beginning to publicly say things like: "I like to win" and "I want to win."

I think a good example is Menchov. He has been professionally cycling for about the same amount of time as Leipheimer, and though he has won a couple of grand tours, he has carried some of the same criticisms in the past. He has been blamed for lacking in panache and for making big errors at critical times. He has a lot more miles in his legs now, and I think that he is positioning himself to be a very, very dangerous rider, perhaps even dominating. Yet, people seem to have a much more difficult time swallowing that Levi may be doing the same thing. 

Ultimately, my argument is that Levi's impressive achievements over the past couple of years has been largely ignored, and that the reasons for this are very unfair. I think that he is showing the best form of his career, and there is no reason not to believe now that he is at least capable of going all the way, and perhaps doing so in a dramatic fashion that he has lacked in the past. Carlos Sastre is another guy that has been pro for even longer than Levi, and has had about the same amount of success in grand tours over the past decade; always close, but no cigar. Sastre was never good enough at time trials to go all the way, but we all remember last year's tour. In the last stages of the tour, Sastre exploded out to take the yellow jersey, and gave a time trial performance far superior to what was expected. What was the difference? I would wager experience. Now, at the age of 34, Sastre is more formidable than he has ever been. I think that everyone can see this in Sastre, but not Levi. Although their careers were very similar, with Sastre a little stronger in the mountains and Levi a little stronger in the TT, I do not recall people doubting and even reviling Sastre the way that they do Levi now. I have already explained why I think that is (nothing against Sastre; I am a fan).

I'm not casting accusations at everyone that doubts that Levi can win, as I know that many people said that they like him but are just betting on other people. 

As a mild mannered American who has won races and been ignored in favor of people that I consistently defeated but "seemed" more aggressive than me (not in cycling; when I was in the military I participated in competitive land navigation races, a very grueling endurance sport in it's own right) I guess this whole issue kind of hits me in a sore spot so I take it a little more personally than maybe I should, for the record.


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