# Could Armstrong be bluffing?



## SunnySang (Aug 4, 2008)

Hes done it before against ulle, why not do it again but on a larger scale? Imagine him just sticking behind and getting paced by Klody while all the other contenders w8st their energy responding to contador. If anyone gets too close to contador or for any reason, bruyneel could release Lance and other teams wont expect it?


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

Of course lance could be bluffing. But the only person who could/try to respond to Conti was Andy Schleck. And we saw how that turned out. Today opened up two things: Armstrong's assault on ventoux and the possibility of an Astana 1-2-3. 

However, if he can pull out an ITT that nobody can match, Conti included, it's all back up in the air. And I'm certain he is thinking about it now.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

SunnySang said:


> Hes done it before against ulle, why not do it again but on a larger scale? Imagine him just sticking behind and getting paced by Klody while all the other contenders w8st their energy responding to contador. If anyone gets too close to contador or for any reason, bruyneel could release Lance and other teams wont expect it?


He is going to bluff right into 4th or 5th place. He is in very good shape but just not on the same level as Contador or Schleck. If you look at his performances at Tour of California, or Giro - they were solid but far from spectacular. It's not bluff, it's the law of nature at work. We are all bound to get older and slower at some point in the future. He is aging pretty well, btw.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

Why would anyone "bluff" on one of only 3 remaining chances to take time out of his competitors?

Nope...no bluff, he tried to go & couldn't.

len


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

*Epic bluff*

Denis Menchov has everyone fooled. Mark my words, they're all playing right into his hands.


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## iamnotfilip (Jul 9, 2007)

Really? Even after comments such as:
_“When Alberto went, he showed he was the best in the race, and clearly the best climber. That’s how you win the Tour de France,” Armstrong said. “A day like this showed who was best.” _

I guess one thing's established, not even all of Lance's fans believe what he says. Of course this is all happening in France so it could be just a big French conspiracy.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Len J said:


> Why would anyone "bluff" on one of only 3 remaining chances to take time out of his competitors?
> 
> Nope...no bluff, he tried to go & couldn't.
> 
> len



I still vote for the possum theory. Not because it makes sense, but because it makes me feel less sad. 




And, it would be epic.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

The problem with bluffing in cycling is that the bet always gets called. You can't bluff and have everyone fold like in poker.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> I still vote for the possum theory. Not because it makes sense, but because it makes me feel less sad.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It would indeed be epic.........

Unforunatly, It would be closer to Landis Epic than anything else. 

Len


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

On the third day he will rise and save the world from cancer.


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## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

How do you bluff in a stage race? What a silly thing to suggest. Every opportunity to gain a second on your competition must be seized.

The race goes up the road, time gaps occur and are cumulative (some help for the newbie).


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## oarsman (Nov 6, 2005)

pretender said:


> On the third day he will rise and save the world from cancer.


OK, now that's just mean... in a vaguely amusing sort of way


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

The problem I have, is it seems some of the other names that were previously unable to match LA on other climbs, all of a sudden put time into him.

I'd like to go back and review some of the previous results, as I might be confused on this or as to the circumstances such as flats/crashes etc. 

Seeing that most of the mountains have been downhill/flat finishes may mean simply no one was putting in their biggest effort.

But I am super surprised Evans finished in front of him, and to a point even Sastre. But I'm really glad for Sastre that he had a good turnout today.


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## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

Please, please, please can we all finally give the "Lance is Bluffing" mumbo jumbo a rest? This whole aura of Lance putting on a display of feigned weakness stems from a single stage in 2001. The important point to draw from that stage is that by the finish line Lance had turned the tables and gained key time over his main rival exactly as planned.

Show me one instance *ever* where Lance ever deliberately lost GC time at the end of a stage while executing a bluff, in a race that he actually wanted to win. 

Answer : it's never happened.

Bottom line; if he lost time, there was no bluff. It was because he didn't have the goods.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> The problem I have, is it seems some of the other names that were previously unable to match LA on other climbs, all of a sudden put time into him.
> 
> I'd like to go back and review some of the previous results, as I might be confused on this or as to the circumstances such as flats/crashes etc.


It's a 3 week stage race......ability to recover better, or conversly to not degrade as bad as your competition, is a key attribute to succeeding. (I know you know this).

IMO, what we saw today is the difference between the recovery ability of 30 YO legs and 37 YO legs. Pre-tour, he tested as strong as any other time he raced in the tour, so it's not about the fitness he brought into the tour......so the only thing left is either nutrition & hydration or ability to recover and the cumulative effect over (in this case) 2 weeks of uber hard riding. It wasn't hydration (hje wasn't foaming) and If it were nutrition, we'd of heard that by now.

I could be wrong, but it's the only thing I see that explains the reality of what we saw.

Ockam's razor.

Len


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

I think LL is bluffing. He will show up on Ventoux and decimate the field.


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## raymonda (Jan 31, 2007)

No bluff, he he is just stating the facts. AC is the team leader and best Tour rider, period!


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## clipz (Aug 28, 2008)

agreed!


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## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

JohnHenry said:


> I think LL is bluffing. He will show up on Ventoux and decimate the field.


Sure. And get 30 seconds back on AC. Still a loser.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Len J said:


> It's a 3 week stage race......ability to recover better, or conversly to not degrade as bad as your competition, is a key attribute to succeeding. (I know you know this).
> 
> IMO, what we saw today is the difference between the recovery ability of 30 YO legs and 37 YO legs. Pre-tour, he tested as strong as any other time he raced in the tour, so it's not about the fitness he brought into the tour......so the only thing left is either nutrition & hydration or ability to recover and the cumulative effect over (in this case) 2 weeks of uber hard riding. It wasn't hydration (hje wasn't foaming) and If it were nutrition, we'd of heard that by now.
> 
> ...


Of course I agree with all of the above.

But I still vote for the possum maneuver.

Because it makes me feel less sad.


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## Guest (Jul 20, 2009)

clipz said:


> based on that statement. i think lance was stating what the press wants to hear, but i highly doubt alberto was following orders. lance is most likely pissed, but he even stated a first place chance is not so much in his favour now because he has to help alberto now for the rest of the time to keep the jersey. alberto in my opinion is an asswipe and a crybaby but is one damn good cyclist!


I would be very surpised if that was not the team order. Have alberto attack, and when andy, or wiggins, or menchov, or whoever tried to follow, lance gets a free tow up, he couldn't even do that. Lance was in perfect position twice during those last 10 min to follow the attacks, but couldn't. It was estimated that alberto was climbing at 6.7 w/kg while lance was only at 6.2. That's a huge difference. Even kloden dropped lance at the end, if he had the legs he would have been there. 
And assuming that alberto was going as hard as he could too, he's going to be putting out more power in the TT than lance as well. The only person who will gain time on him that's anywhere close might be wiggins, the schlecks can't TT with him, sastre, can't menchov is out of it, there's no one else.


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## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

clipz said:


> but i highly doubt alberto was following orders.


Okay genius. Was he supposed to help Kloden push LA up the climb?


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

No. LA is still one of the top Tour riders, but age and being gone form the game so long as shown he is NOT going to win this thing unless Contador crashes. He is just NOT strong enough. This coming form a Fan Boy.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Of course I agree with all of the above.
> 
> But I still vote for the possum maneuver.
> 
> Because it makes me feel less sad.


I vote for epic too.  

I'd Love to see Lance end his career with a victory on Ventoux after a good TT that puts him on the podium.......that would be one for the ages.

len


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Len J said:


> I vote for epic too.
> 
> I'd Love to see Lance end his career with a victory on Ventoux after a good TT that puts him on the podium.......that would be one for the ages.
> 
> len


Awww. You warm the cockles of my wittle heart.


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## Guest (Jul 20, 2009)

DIRT BOY said:


> No. LA is still one of the top Tour riders, but age and being gone form the game so long as shown he is NOT going to win this thing unless Contador crashes. He is just NOT strong enough. This coming form a Fan Boy.


Even if alberto crashed I doubt LA would win. Wiggins showed today that he can outclimb him, and now he will finally get some support (don't know why he didn't have it from the get go). He's the best TT'er in the top 5, maybe top 8, unless conti pulls something out of his ass that is. Andy is going to lose a little time in the TT, but will probably be close to lance (5-10ish), and using today as a guide will put 2 minutes into lance on ventoux.


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## iamnotfilip (Jul 9, 2007)

clipz said:


> ... but i highly doubt alberto was following orders.... alberto in my opinion is an asswipe and a crybaby but is one damn good cyclist!


Because he attacked and made it look like he was *****ing molasses for everyone to cycle through? Twice.

Come on, this is what he's good at, what do you expect him to do? Or were you hoping for an entire tour without attacks.

Lance did OK for his age. He has nothing to be ashamed of. He is almost hanging in there with the very best cyclists of today.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

clipz said:


> based on that statement. i think lance was stating what the press wants to hear, but i highly doubt alberto was following orders. lance is most likely pissed, but he even stated a first place chance is not so much in his favour now because he has to help alberto now for the rest of the time to keep the jersey. alberto in my opinion is an asswipe and a crybaby but is one damn good cyclist!


You're right. Bruyneel told the best stage racer in the world right now not to attack because Bruyneel wanted him to help the third best rider on the team instead. I've heard a lot of crying in this Tour, but not from Contador.


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## lookrider (Dec 3, 2006)

jains89 said:


> I would be very surpised if that was not the team order. Have alberto attack, and when andy, or wiggins, or menchov, or whoever tried to follow, lance gets a free tow up, he couldn't even do that. Lance was in perfect position twice during those last 10 min to follow the attacks, but couldn't. It was estimated that alberto was climbing at 6.7 w/kg while lance was only at 6.2. That's a huge difference. Even kloden dropped lance at the end, if he had the legs he would have been there.
> And assuming that alberto was going as hard as he could too, he's going to be putting out more power in the TT than lance as well. The only person who will gain time on him that's anywhere close might be wiggins, the schlecks can't TT with him, sastre, can't menchov is out of it, there's no one else.


Yeah, I just watched it again. Contador looked at LA and just took off. He gapped Andy Schleck very quickly and LA made no move to get on Schleck's wheel.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/20/sports/cycling/20tour.html?_r=1&ref=sports

_Armstrong, 37, rode most of the final ascent with his jersey unzipped, with his teammate Andréas Klöden nearby. He said he suffered and was nearly at his physical limit at the start of the final climb._


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## Guest (Jul 20, 2009)

iamnotfilip said:


> Because he attacked and made it look like he was *****ing molasses for everyone to cycle through? Twice.
> 
> Come on, this is what he's good at, what do you expect him to do? Or were you hoping for an entire tour without attacks.
> 
> *Lance did OK for his age*. He has nothing to be ashamed of. He is almost hanging in there with the very best cyclists of today.


I would love to see him do some masters stuff. That would be hilarious. 35+ worlds anyone?


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## QUiTSPiNiNArOuND (Mar 15, 2002)

No bluff. You don't lose time to other rivals on different teams. If there was the slightest, and I mean slightest chance of a bluff, he would've rode in with Andy. Anyways, great ride by Alberto, I saw no difficulty in him today, made it look really easy out there. I just can't stand the pistol salute.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

lookrider said:


> Yeah, I just watched it again. Contador looked at LA and just took off. He gapped Andy Schleck very quickly and LA made no move to get on Schleck's wheel.
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/20/sports/cycling/20tour.html?_r=1&ref=sports
> 
> _Armstrong, 37, rode most of the final ascent with his jersey unzipped, with his teammate Andréas Klöden nearby. *He said he suffered and was nearly at his physical limit at the start of the final climb*._



That's what I thought. He didn't look comfortable even from the bottom of the climb before any serious attacks were launched, even.

Hoping he recovers well, but that's hard for 37 y/o legs. We'll see. He's not normal anyway.


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## WeakMite (Feb 20, 2005)

No he's not bluffing... he's riding an amazing TdF for 37 year old dude who watched last years tour from the sofa with a beer and a burrito (and a blonde at his feet).

;-)


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

WeakMite said:


> No he's not bluffing... he's riding an amazing TdF for 37 year old dude who watched last years tour from the sofa with a beer (and a "big as your face") in his hand (and a blond at his feet).
> 
> ;-)


You are correct.

But he sure was all bluster coming into the tour & even through the first 2 weeks.

I'd still like him to have a last hurrah.

Len


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## Cyclingchef (Jul 19, 2009)

Remember also that this is really the first mountain finish, besides Andorra, (which wasn't as hard). This was a greater test because even though it was only Cat 1, it was a lengthy climb at the end of a very long stage with several smaller previous climbs. This was clearly the most testing, and telling, stage so far. Lance may have another chance on Ventoux, (remember he has a bit of a vendetta with that mountain, twice), but he will not likely get the best of Contador in the TT, unless he was bluffing all the way back in Monaco... 

Isn't it funny how we sound so disappointed and despairing about a guy who is in 2nd place?
I think that shows how clearly we all see the writing on the wall... Contador is a dominating cyclist.
And I loved the comment of Menchov's sleeper strategy. I think Kenny Van Hummel may also be laying plans.


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> The problem I have, is it seems some of the other names that were previously unable to match LA on other climbs, all of a sudden put time into him.



Yeah, like Menchov.

Oops, that works the other way around. 

Who exactly couldn't match Armstrong on other climbs and now put time into him?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I don't think he is bluffing.

But,
Armstrong of this year would have won last year's tour.


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## repartocorse40 (Feb 23, 2009)

Spunout said:


> How do you bluff in a stage race? What a silly thing to suggest. Every opportunity to gain a second on your competition must be seized.
> 
> The race goes up the road, time gaps occur and are cumulative (some help for the newbie).


i couldnt even read the whole thread...have you watched the tour before? gawd....it only works once...

but..........bluffs usually come riding towards the back...not looking like its the hardest thing youve ever done...lance was hurting today in my book...

they used to talk about lance's face showing nothing...that face belonged to the new king, berto looked like he was doing something today but he didnt look like he was riding away from the best cyclists in the world....AND for you LA fans...he IS number 2 in the hardest bike race in the world so..................


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## Balderick (Jul 11, 2006)

LA seemed, to me, to be riding a controlled race. He did not look totally spent to me, and my take was he was riding for second in the GC and riding conservatively. I do not rule him out yet - I think he is playing it smart.

Question, for me, is what will Johann do now?


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## 5500OCLV (Jul 11, 2009)

pretender said:


> On the third day he will rise and save the world from cancer.


Real mature... Cancer is not something to joke about.


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## repartocorse40 (Feb 23, 2009)

Circlip said:


> Please, please, please can we all finally give the "Lance is Bluffing" mumbo jumbo a rest? This whole aura of Lance putting on a display of feigned weakness stems from a single stage in 2001. The important point to draw from that stage is that by the finish line Lance had turned the tables and gained key time over his main rival exactly as planned.
> 
> Show me one instance *ever* where Lance ever deliberately lost GC time at the end of a stage while executing a bluff, in a race that he actually wanted to win.
> 
> ...


I knew I should have read through but this person is right...you don't bluff by getting ridden away from.....


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## repartocorse40 (Feb 23, 2009)

thechriswebb said:


> I don't think he is bluffing.
> 
> But,
> Armstrong of this year would have won last year's tour.


false


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Balderick said:


> .
> 
> *Question, for me, is what will Johann do now*?



I don't give a crap.


I'm sad and I need a basket of flowers.


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

SunnySang said:


> Hes done it before against ulle, why not do it again but on a larger scale? Imagine him just sticking behind and getting paced by Klody while all the other contenders w8st their energy responding to contador. If anyone gets too close to contador or for any reason, bruyneel could release Lance and other teams wont expect it?



I was on the Verbier today, and I saw his face and he was like he suggested .. "at his limit."


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## iamnotfilip (Jul 9, 2007)

thechriswebb said:


> Armstrong of this year would have won last year's tour.


Perhaps he should enter last year's tour while he still has the good form. :blush2:


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

He is indeed bluffing. He will make his surprise attack next year.

I love the Lance of 09 but why is it so hard to understand that:
- he got shelled
- he was on the rivet
- he wrote a check that he couldn't cash
etc. etc.

I wanted him to do really well but he didn't. It didn't happen. And why do the announcers keep repeating over and over that he did really well for an old man. It didn't work out today and his chances are diminished.

But the race is not over and he will fight again. Cause that's what he does.

fc


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## repartocorse40 (Feb 23, 2009)

WeakMite said:


> No he's not bluffing... he's riding an amazing TdF for 37 year old dude who watched last years tour from the sofa with a beer and a burrito (and a blonde at his feet).
> 
> ;-)


I just cant get enough of this thread...if you actually think he took time off youve been fooled....time off from competitive cycling maybe...time off from riding absolutely not........


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## hshum (Feb 12, 2006)

I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned what Armstrong's eyes looked like during the post race interview. Anybody who has ridden a long tough bike ride/race knows that once your eyes start looking bloodshot or red, it's a bad sign. Armstrong's eyes were not looking so good.

I'm a huge Armstrong fan and I wish he was bluffing, but I have to face the fact that Contador is stronger and is the leader of Astana. In fact, if Lance rode strongly for Contador throughout the rest of the tour, I would be am even bigger Lance fan. There is something about a champion who sees the facts for what they are and is able to set aside his own ambitions in support for his stronger teammate.

Just my 2 cents.


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## T-shirt (Aug 15, 2004)

_


thechriswebb said:



I don't think he is bluffing.

But,
Armstrong of this year would have won last year's tour.

Click to expand...

_


repartocorse40 said:


> false


 *Search your feelings. You know it to be true.*


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

hshum said:


> I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned what Armstrong's eyes looked like during the post race interview. Anybody who has ridden a long tough bike ride/race knows that once your eyes start looking bloodshot or red, it's a bad sign. Armstrong's eyes were not looking so good.
> 
> I'm a huge Armstrong fan and I wish he was bluffing, but I have to face the fact that Contador is stronger and is the leader of Astana. In fact, if Lance rode strongly for Contador throughout the rest of the tour, I would be am even bigger Lance fan. There is something about a champion who sees the facts for what they are and is able to set aside his own ambitions in support for his stronger teammate.
> 
> Just my 2 cents.


Yup noticed that. He looked pretty wiped.

It's got to be eating him. Hope he recovers well. Rest day tomorrow.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

hshum said:


> I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned what Armstrong's eyes looked like during the post race interview. Anybody who has ridden a long tough bike ride/race knows that once your eyes start looking bloodshot or red, it's a bad sign. Armstrong's eyes were not looking so good.
> 
> I'm a huge Armstrong fan and I wish he was bluffing, but I have to face the fact that Contador is stronger and is the leader of Astana. In fact, if Lance rode strongly for Contador throughout the rest of the tour, I would be am even bigger Lance fan. There is something about a champion who sees the facts for what they are and is able to set aside his own ambitions in support for his stronger teammate.
> 
> Just my 2 cents.


I would have respected his comeback more if he had shown more respect for Contador over the last few months. I pulled for him for every one of his victories but I lost respect this year.


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## T-shirt (Aug 15, 2004)

Len J said:


> It would indeed be epic.........
> 
> Unforunatly, It would be closer to Landis Epic than anything else.
> 
> Len


Maybe that's what we saw today.





Thank you, I nominate myself for troll of the week.


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## loudog (Jul 22, 2008)

not bluffing. had he put the hurt on conty then he'd be the new team leader. hes the help now and looks like he will take it with grace. still a phenomenal performance tho, i bet he takes 3rd overall.


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## T-shirt (Aug 15, 2004)

SunnySang said:


> Hes done it before against ulle, why not do it again but on a larger scale? Imagine him just sticking behind and getting paced by Klody while all the other contenders w8st their energy responding to contador. If anyone gets too close to contador or for any reason, bruyneel could release Lance and other teams wont expect it?


If you mean to protect Conador, hmm, that would be crafty. 

If you mean that he might attack anywhere but in the time trial, then no. His team leader has the yellow jersey; Lance will not attempt to take it away.


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## BergMann (Mar 14, 2004)

Bluff????????
Stop, you're killing me.
Best laugh I've had in a long time - or at least since Phil Liggett claimed on today's Versus coverage that Lance was the "strongest rider in the 3rd week of the Giro." 
Which makes perfect sense, seeing how Menchov left Armstrong for dead each and every day of the race.

It is clear that years of excessive Lance worship have done some serious dain bramage to cycling's collective consciousness.


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## Balderick (Jul 11, 2006)

The ITT will be very interesting. Have to stay up for that one.


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## jerm182 (Jul 18, 2008)

I don't know about possum, but I feel a little older today.


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## Derailer (Apr 28, 2005)

jerm182 said:


> I don't know about possum, but I feel a little older today.


You hit the nail on the head, jerm.


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## lancezneighbor (May 4, 2002)

Yes, bluffing. He bluffed about cancer, he never really had it, it was all a rouse to gain sympathy, he bluffed about retirement. He even bluffed about having a new baby. All of this is a big bluff so that he can surprise everyone by ending up aand try to sneak onto the podium in third place. Yes, a wise crafty bluff to lose time to your major competitors, great strategy. 

I do hope he recovers, does very well in the ITT, and we have a major throwdown on Ventoux. I doubt that will happen though. A very good race this year, though.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Lol..


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## Mr. IROC-Z (Mar 20, 2007)

Lance has been an awesome inspiration to me ever since his cancer fight, but this Alberto Contador is an effing BEAST! He hit that mountain stage like it was nothing. That shitt is trully amazing and I just sat there, with my mouth open staring into the TV.
Unless Lance has some super powers left, not sure this is going to be an 8th win for him.


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Yes LA was bluffing. Not today, for the last 6 months. All designed to take the pressure and attention off Conty. His bluff ended today.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Lance Armstrong used to be right around 7w/kg in his previous Tours (which he won duhh) but this year, that's changed.

It's changed because of his long layoff. It's also changed with the collarbone injury disrupting some serious training. 

So, this became Lance's strategy: Lose more weight and become even lighter than he ever was for the Tour, such that his power to weight ratio can climb back up. Of course, this means sacrificing a little bit for his TT now because he can afford to. Why? The first TT was very short anyway. The TTT was gonna have him on the best team out there so he'd not lose time. It's only the final ITT that would cause him to lose some time. It might be very important but that's a risk he had to take.

He took that risk and shed some muscle and raised his power to weight ratio because he knew he needed to be right up there in the mountains if he could ever stand a chance. This was his best shot at finishing as high as possible on the GC. He knew Alberto was gonna be great in the mountains and could see that his TT was improving.

He knows he's very likely 2nd best on his own team (2nd best because the team was also gonna support him hence, rendering Klöden and Leipheimer as lieutenants already so to speak).

So, he tried, he tried very hard indeed. And damn, he did very well. But yesterday was just a little too hard unfortunately. I really wished he could have been right there with at least Frank Schleck. But you can see the power wasn't there to accelerate away etc.


I really, really wanted Lance to win this Tour and had hopes that he could actually. I knew his numbers weren't at that magical 7w/kg that would have enabled him to win the Tour. Recovery? Sure, that might be slower or harder now but with the way LA takes care of himself in races and training, I doubt it's hampering him any more than say, well, nothing actually. He probably just needs a longer massage and a few more miles at the start of races to get his legs rolling again but that's just it IMHO.

Now, as to whether he's bluffing? I don't think so, as much as I wish it was so. Why? Few reasons:

1)Bluffing would be stupid because he lost over a minute to Alberto today. That makes it very, very hard on himself anyway.

2)Lance this year has been a lot more light-hearted and seems to be enjoying racing a whole lot more as we can see from the videos with Levi especially etc. He's also more sincere when he tells the public that he was just not strong enough, or that he really tried but couldn't etc. Levi's persona has rubbed off on him too. As has his joker self has rubbed off on Levi it seems. (I still think the Giro video of him sleeping in his room is done by monsieur Leipheimer!)

3)Yes bluffing is a tactic but his description of how he tried etc leads me to believe even more that he's not and that he was cooked. Sure, that could be a ploy etc. But something about his interviews this year is different. And more honest so to speak.

4)Again, LA is one of the best (if not the best) tacticians out there. He does what he wants on the road because he can. He mind reads the others like he was sizing them up for his dinner. He is a predator and the rest are all his prey. 

5)Being such, he KNOWS losing this much time isn't good for him. It NEVER IS. Unless he was at 7w/kg and Alberto was only at 6w/kg, only then can he afford to lose this much time because he can then smoke Alberto like a Ferrari smoking a 20 year old beat up Honda.


Now I'll add a few more things: Armstrong looks great. No denying that. Hell, he's better than all but 8 other riders in the peloton for the Tour anyway. Did he save a bit of energy? Possible. But that's also perhaps so he won't blow up. Could he have lost less time? Maybe a little less. Maybe he wanted to take the gas off a tad just because he wanted to conserve. But conserve for? Again, this brings it to a : No, he just could not go harder without going over the red zone unfortunately.

He slowed the group down to wait for Klöden as a matter of fact. Sure, that's to let Alberto go ahead but it's also so that the 2 of them can work their way to their own GC spots instead of just having himself work alone. 

Lastly: That damned collarbone injury. If not for that, he'd be losing less time on the stage without doubt. Maybe just 40seconds plus. Perhaps. But very likely, less time than he did today.

In any case, full credit to the man to have came back after such a long layoff and a recent injury to ride so well.

I hope he podiums (2nd). And yes, if you haven't guessed, I'm a hugeee fan. 


Final words: Alberto Contador is looking more and more like Lance Armstrong was in his 7 Tour wins. Same attacking style. He just goes for the jugular. He can TT pretty damned well. He'll get better in TT-ing. He'll be smarter in time. Hey, I'm sure everyone else sees the resemblance now right?


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## cogswell23 (Aug 15, 2007)

uzziefly said:


> He took that risk and shed some muscle and raised his power to weight ratio because he knew he needed to be right up there in the mountains if he could ever stand a chance. This was his best shot at finishing as high as possible on the GC. He knew Alberto was gonna be great in the mountains and could see that his TT was improving.


Could be wrong, but I don't think this is true. He certainly looks bigger to me, especially upper body, than I've ever seen before...


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## nims (Jul 7, 2009)

My 2 cents, Contador wins this year. Contador lets LA have ventoux (else Contador might not make it to paris alive ;p)

And anyway, Lance has always said the tour was a warm up for the leadville 100. He really wants to beat the lance of mtb (weins has 7 wins at the leadville 100, 1 year older than lance I believe).


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

He's done. I would say he was bluffing all the way until today. Until the climb up to Verbier.


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## rogger (Aug 19, 2005)

JohnHenry said:


> I think LL is bluffing. He will show up on Ventoux and decimate the field.


Iban Mayo is going to win the Tour. :wink5:


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

nims said:


> My 2 cents, Contador wins this year. Contador lets LA have ventoux (else Contador might not make it to paris alive ;p)
> 
> And anyway, *Lance has always said the tour was a warm up for the leadville 100*. He really wants to beat the lance of mtb (weins has 7 wins at the leadville 100, 1 year older than lance I believe).


Hell no. The Tour is HIS race.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

cogswell23 said:


> Could be wrong, but I don't think this is true. He certainly looks bigger to me, especially upper body, than I've ever seen before...


Lots of reports have said Armstrong is about 2kg lighter than his previous Tour weights.

I think some reports are from Trek's Ben Coates and Liz Kreutz and Carmichael too IIRC over Twitter.

Can't recall.


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

5500OCLV said:


> Real mature... Cancer is not something to joke about.


sure it is. humor helps us deal with **** we can't control. get over yourself.

as for LA - today is a rest day. 1:37 is doable esp. if AC has a terrible TT. of course, it's his team mate, so... well, LA is #2.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

nims said:


> My 2 cents, Contador wins this year. Contador lets LA have ventoux (else Contador might not make it to paris alive ;p)
> 
> And anyway, Lance has always said the tour was a warm up for the leadville 100. He really wants to beat the lance of mtb (weins has 7 wins at the leadville 100, 1 year older than lance I believe).


Yes, Conty and about 5 other riders sit up and soft pedal so Lance can take Ventoux.


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## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

nims said:


> Contador lets LA have ventoux (else Contador might not make it to paris alive ;p)


Unless you mean he lets LA have 7th on Ventoux, this makes no sense at all after what we say yesterday.

Yesterday was a tough stage, but it was far from the toughest in this Tour. Ventoux comes after a few more tough stages. He might surprise, but I think on Ventoux LA tries to limit losses and hang onto the podium by a fingernail. 'Twill be tough, though, because the Schlecks will be attacking Contador all the way up (and in the mountain stages leading up to it. The whole field is going to be wiped going into Ventoux.


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## KMan (Feb 3, 2004)

*no bluff*

I agree that Lance was hurting on the climb just like everyone else - no bluffing. I didn't see it mentioned here yet, but if you look at the race, Lance looked to slow a bit so Kloden could catch back on...and Lance was actually pulling the group he was with for 2km and Kloden was hanging on the back...it was either between the 5 to 3km to go or 4 to 2km to go. It was at this point that Kloden took over the lead to pace to the finish. I really think the teams goal is a 1,2,3 Astana podium since it's never been done. Hence Kloden going at it solo at th finsing ahead of Lance so to keep Wiggins in site. Lance knows that Conti has more top end attacking speed right now (which Lance does not have due to lack of racing) so his tacktic could be to work on 2nd and 3rd for Astana.

www.MLKimages.com


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## takmanjapan (Mar 24, 2004)

*I not sure*

After reading all the posts and watching the last 2.5 hours of the race part of me thinks he is bluffing since he spent the last 80km or so in the back of the bunch with 2 Garmins and was nowhere to be seen when Astana was chasing the break down.

He didnt keep up on the final climb (with Kloden as his minder - I thought it would have been Popovych since they have more history) and could be trying to lose time and be out of the final GC picture in order to be down enough so he can have a shot at breaking away and winning on the Ventoux. Seen it with lots of other Giro winners and past GC guys who lose a bunch of time so they can get some rope and try to win a stage and salvage their pride. 

I think Lance can live with not winning the GC but REALLy wants a stage - especially the queen stage (Ventoux).




il sogno said:


> He's done. I would say he was bluffing all the way until today. Until the climb up to Verbier.


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## KMan (Feb 3, 2004)

*thoughts*



takmanjapan said:


> After reading all the posts and watching the last 2.5 hours of the race part of me thinks he is bluffing since he spent the last 80km or so in the back of the bunch with 2 Garmins and was nowhere to be seen when Astana was chasing the break down.
> 
> He didnt keep up on the final climb (with Kloden as his minder - I thought it would have been Popovych since they have more history) and could be trying to lose time and be out of the final GC picture in order to be down enough so he can have a shot at breaking away and winning on the Ventoux. Seen it with lots of other Giro winners and past GC guys who lose a bunch of time so they can get some rope and try to win a stage and salvage their pride.
> 
> I think Lance can live with not winning the GC but REALLy wants a stage - especially the queen stage (Ventoux).



Not saying I agree with your thought process here, but when I was watching the stage, I was wondering why Lance all of a sudden was riding so far back - he has never done that in any previous stages....why now on this mountain top finish stage? I did see shortly after that I think it was Popo bringing water bottles up and Lance followed him up to the front??

We'll all just have to read about it in his next book.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*he did appear to soft pedal*

the group to get Kloden back on

but could not respond to the counters

I too think he was limiting losses and is hoping for a podium for himself and Kloden


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## tom_o (May 6, 2004)

Everything about his mannerisms is different now. Shoulders are more hunched. Little to no standing on the pedals. No high cadence. No 'pop'.

He'd pedaling squares, sadly.

I wanted to see him win #8, but he's just not the same rider that he was 3 years ago.


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## 5500OCLV (Jul 11, 2009)

asciibaron said:


> sure it is. humor helps us deal with **** we can't control. get over yourself.


You're right, it's just been one of those weeks...


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## SicBith (Jan 21, 2008)

nims said:


> My 2 cents, Contador wins this year. Contador lets LA have ventoux (else Contador might not make it to paris alive ;p)
> 
> And anyway, Lance has always said the tour was a warm up for the leadville 100. He really wants to beat the lance of mtb (weins has 7 wins at the leadville 100, 1 year older than lance I believe).



Weins has 6 wins this will be #7 and the hardest one yet. Oh... and he's in the 40-45 (43yr old) class not the 35-40 class.


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## karatemom (Mar 21, 2008)

I really doubt that Contador is going to give anything to Lance, and especially not Ventoux. This is the TdF--no gifts, remember?

I think if Lance actually won it would be really great drama, and a comeback story to rival his last comeback story. But I'm not sure it's realistic.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

When Andy Schleck countered, Lance's job would have been to sit on Andy's wheel. He just couldn't, you could see from the video he has no snap to his legs. Then the next move was Frank Schleck trying to bridge and he did his very best to get into the Kloden group and hang.

He took 3 and a half years off, he did a fine job yesterday. He was TIRED. He just doesn't have the legs he used to. Nothing to be bummed about. Still has 7 mellow johnny's. 

The only "disappointment" for him was not taking yellow from Cancella by that .2-second margin. He would have had yellow through Andorra. That I think is all he really wanted, was to don the Mellow Johnny one more time. It would have been a great story.


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## bertoni (Jan 10, 2008)

thechriswebb said:


> I don't think he is bluffing.
> 
> But,
> Armstrong of this year would have won last year's tour.


With or without Contador?


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## dave_gt (Jul 25, 2008)

This type of thread is soooo funny. Opinions are like certain anatomical parts and everybody has them but who really wants to hear them? 

37 years is old?  What a joke...like 35 was old when he won the last Tour...two or three years makes him old now?

Tom Watson is old at 59? BS again... golf is not exactly a strenuous sport, look at the obese players in the PGA, but don't talk about age.

This is a typical armchair quarterback type of thread.:thumbsup:


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## bertoni (Jan 10, 2008)

karatemom said:


> I really doubt that Contador is going to give anything to Lance, and especially not Ventoux. This is the TdF--no gifts, remember?
> 
> I think if Lance actually won it would be really great drama, and a comeback story to rival his last comeback story. But I'm not sure it's realistic.


I agree, Contador is going to keep the pedal down all the way to show his dominance.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

fornaca68 said:


> When Andy Schleck countered, Lance's job would have been to sit on Andy's wheel. He just couldn't, you could see from the video he has no snap to his legs. Then the next move was Frank Schleck trying to bridge and he did his very best to get into the Kloden group and hang.


Yeah, that's what I thought. No bluffing, he just couldn't do it. When he was at the back of the pack, with his team up front, I thought he was sandbagging it to save energy for an attack. I was wrong - he was saving energy just to keep as close to a podium finish as possible.

BTW, I really wish Levi was still in the tour, could have made things even more interesting.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

5500OCLV said:


> Real mature... Cancer is not something to joke about.


You're right, but it can be used for one's own benefit/profit.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

nims said:


> My 2 cents, Contador wins this year. Contador lets LA have ventoux (else Contador might not make it to paris alive ;p)
> 
> And anyway, Lance has always said the tour was a warm up for the leadville 100. He really wants to beat the lance of mtb (weins has 7 wins at the leadville 100, 1 year older than lance I believe).


Will the Schlecks let Armstrong have Ventoux? I doubt it.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

il sogno said:


> Will the Schlecks let Armstrong have Ventoux? I doubt it.


The only way (based on yesterdays performance) tha LA wins ventoux is if he loses enough time between now and then that he is allowed to get in a break early on that stage and he solos later and lasts for the win.

head to head, he showed that he couldn't match the accelerations of several of the other GC contenders. 

Len


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

karatemom said:


> I really doubt that Contador is going to give anything to Lance, and especially not Ventoux. This is the TdF--no gifts, remember?
> 
> I think if Lance actually won it would be really great drama, and a comeback story to rival his last comeback story. But I'm not sure it's realistic.


And if Contador was the ultimate team player and slowed down a bit to let Lance have Ventoux, what makes anybody think that two Schlecks, one Bradley along with one Cadel, followed by Carlos followed by Denis and the partridge in the pear tree would just gift the queen stage to Lance?


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## terzo rene (Mar 23, 2002)

5500OCLV said:


> Real mature... Cancer is not something to joke about.


 every cancer patient i've known does, and none have ever been offended when i did. being able to laugh about it is one of the best things you can do to cope.


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## Dad Man Walking (Sep 19, 2002)

uzziefly said:


> Lots of reports have said Armstrong is about 2kg lighter than his previous Tour weights.


Don't know if that's true or not, but look again at his arms when he's finishing the climb yesterday. Pretty nice guns for a bike racer. Not where a climber wants the weight. So if he's packing it there, he's not packing it where he needs it... Enough said.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

takmanjapan said:


> After reading all the posts and watching the last 2.5 hours of the race part of me thinks he is bluffing since he spent the last 80km or so in the back of the bunch with 2 Garmins and was nowhere to be seen when Astana was chasing the break down.
> 
> He didnt keep up on the final climb (with Kloden as his minder - I thought it would have been Popovych since they have more history) and could be trying to lose time and be out of the final GC picture in order to be down enough so he can have a shot at breaking away and winning on the Ventoux. _*Seen it with lots of other Giro winners and past GC guys who lose a bunch of time so they can get some rope and try to win a stage and salvage their pride.
> *_
> I think Lance can live with not winning the GC but REALLy wants a stage - especially the queen stage (Ventoux).


You see this from guys who have lost their podium chances, not from guys who still have a shot at the podium.


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

Who thinks he'll come back next year and try to win it?


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## Peanya (Jun 12, 2008)

Everyone knows this, including both Lance and Alberto, is truly a bluff. I think it's more for dramatic effect. It surely is making this exciting!


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## lancezneighbor (May 4, 2002)

saird said:


> Who thinks he'll come back next year and try to win it?


That is what he is talking about now. Maybe it depends on if he believes his training was inadequate or if he decides age is catching up.


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## offthefront66 (Apr 9, 2006)

Was Armstrong bluffing....absolutely not! Ventoux though is a very different type of climb then Verbier and is suited more to a climber who likes to keep a steady rhythym versus exlosiveness like Verbier. I suggest that if Armstrong is top 3 in the TT he will have a good ride on Ventoux. Why? Ventoux is the type of climb that requires a steady hard tempo....Levi is that type of climber and has done well on Ventoux. Armstrong now is also a climber like that and a solid TT will show he has good sutained power which will bode well for Ventoux.


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## MarshallH1987 (Jun 17, 2009)

It wouldn't surprise me to see lance bluffing but he lost quite a bit of time to contador on that last climb. If your going to bluff you just look hurt, not actually lose tons of time.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

this is one of the funniest threads I've read in a long time - maybe Tommy Danielson is bluffing too - his strategy is to really suck for a few more years then take everyone by surprise on Alpe d'huez in the 2011 Tour and gain 12 minutes.


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## stefang31 (Jul 21, 2009)

il sogno said:


> Will the Schlecks let Armstrong have Ventoux? I doubt it.


This is a funny thing for you to say, if you watched stage 16 today, there's no "letting" about it with the Schlecks, Armstrong will TAKE whatever he wants, the Schlecks are irrelevant and couldn't hold a candle to Armstrong.

As far as bluffing on stage 15, no, I think he was caught off gaurd, we must remember the collar bone injury so recently, so second in the TDF is all he can do, at 37? Ha, wait till next year, when Armstrong rides on a different team, and then the true bluff will be called!


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*wait a minute*



stefang31 said:


> This is a funny thing for you to say, if you watched stage 16 today, there's no "letting" about it with the Schlecks, Armstrong will TAKE whatever he wants, the Schlecks are irrelevant and couldn't hold a candle to Armstrong.
> 
> As far as bluffing on stage 15, no, I think he was caught off gaurd, we must remember the collar bone injury so recently, so second in the TDF is all he can do, at 37? Ha, wait till next year, when Armstrong rides on a different team, and then the true bluff will be called!


Look, there is a point where he is called the old man for a reason.

He will be looking at being almost 39 next year.

While its awesome to see this form..........I dont see a day in the TDF when Lance gets off his walker, wipes drool off his bib and smokes a group on the climbs.......

I can just see it now, Liggett in a retirement home, Bob abd Paul visit him for a prune danish and there goes Lance on Team Fossil. Nope


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## stefang31 (Jul 21, 2009)

ttug said:


> Look, there is a point where he is called the old man for a reason.
> 
> He will be looking at being almost 39 next year.
> 
> ...



Not usually arguementative, but my response to this is, let's look at the evidence, who is 37 years old, and in second place in the Tour, and just recently got up off the ground with a broken collar bone and peddled to that second place position in the TDF? So we have this staring in our faces, you can "old man" and "drool" and "bib" all you want, but the evidence points to this old man being somebody that won't go away. "Smoking" a group might not be what he can do anymore, but beat them he is, and will!


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*LA tired from pulling?*

here is the final reasonable LA defense:

LA has been at the front of the astana team a lot helping control the peleton, or recently up front in a chaser group without help all the time. Plus, he pulled a lot on the ttt.

Hypothetically, in a parallel universe, he could be doing a little better if he had been able to sit in the rocking chair except for the well-timed outburst, like AC has been able to do.

when LA has won, he has won plus has typically done a lot more than wheel-suck while waiting for the tt or to bust open on one or two mountain stages.

With that in mind, it really makes the case that Ventoux is looking unrealistic - LA has worked harder than the average domestique - but LA will have a tour he can be proud of, since he likely will be somewhere in top 10.


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## cyclejim (Mar 31, 2004)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Yup noticed that. He looked pretty wiped.
> 
> It's got to be eating him. Hope he recovers well. Rest day tomorrow.


Did you guys happen to watch the stage from 2004 that they played right after the stage? His eyes looked exactly the same then. At first I said the same thing as you, but then I noticed they looked the same in 2004...


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## cyclejim (Mar 31, 2004)

cogswell23 said:


> Could be wrong, but I don't think this is true. He certainly looks bigger to me, especially upper body, than I've ever seen before...


Agreed, his arms are way bigger than at any other time in the past.


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## Opus51569 (Jul 21, 2009)

*Head v. Heart*

In my head I have a hard time seeing a bluff. I think time catches up with all of us, even Lance. In my heart, though, I would love to think he watched Schlek and Contador go off the front and thought, "Go ahead and wear him down for me, Andy. I'll see you both on Ventoux." When Schleck stopped the attack, he had to go or risk both a time gap and Contador still in good form.

My head says no, but in my heart I still want to believe. Either way, the way he closed that gap was great to watch.


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## stefang31 (Jul 21, 2009)

*not bluffing but not giving all*

Hey, here's the conclusion that was easily visible today, he most likely couldn't keep up with Contador and it's questionable whether he might keep the wheel of the Schleks, but he certainly isn't giving everything he's got, especially after SMOKING Wiggins today at the end of the race, and in defense of Armstrong, despite his age, I still think a tour victory is a possibility, yes, at age 38, in the 2010, when he races for his own team and doesn't have to lay down for a teammate. But he sure has lost that acceleration he once had on the steep climbs.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

In 2010 he needs to beat AC and the Schleck bros and maybe Wiggins with more experience in the high mountains. Uphill battle...


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## fab4 (Jan 8, 2003)

Lance is not bluffing. He is just not the same anymore and people should be realistic. He's doing very well for a 38 year old farth though considering he was also out for almost 4 years. He just could not follow the accelarations of the young guns anymore. Podium is still very realistic even though he is now in 4th place. Klöden, Armstrong and Wiggins can make up time on the Schlecks in the time trial, but the Ventoux climb will settle the final classification. Lance is a stud for his age.


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## identifiler (Dec 24, 2005)

who says wiggo won't be with Lance ? JV gonna get washed IMO...


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