# FTP rate of progression?



## Wesquire (May 27, 2015)

Anyone know of any rough guidelines for how quickly FTP can be increased? I know this will vary wildly from person to person, but just a best guess on how many watts you can gain in a year?


----------



## Poncharelli (May 7, 2006)

I've wondered about this too, not so much about rate of progression but improvement limit. 

My first FTP test was in 2007 and resulted at about 220W, at 170 pounds. After years of training, and aging over 40, I've improved to about 280W, but weigh less some years (minimum 160). 

So can most people only improve about 100W? do gifted racers just inherently put out 250-300W FTP untrained? 

but I think in general riders who make it to Cat 1/2, usually do it pretty quick. Cat 5 to Cat 3, one year; Cat 3 to 1 the next. I have one friend who did it slow, like 1 category a year, and keeps improving, to the point that he got stars and stripes last year; but I think that was because he got into cycle racing when he was older (34ish).


----------



## Wesquire (May 27, 2015)

I don't have a power meter, but based on the calculators I've used and my maintainable pace going from 17.5 mph to ~20 mph, my FTP has probably increased close to 50 or 60 watts in the last couple months. I've only been cycling a few months though, so I'm sure this rate of progression will severely decrease.


----------



## Poncharelli (May 7, 2006)

Wesquire said:


> I don't have a power meter, but based on the calculators I've used and my maintainable pace going from 17.5 mph to ~20 mph, my FTP has probably increased close to 50 or 60 watts in the last couple months. I've only been cycling a few months though, so I'm sure this rate of progression will severely decrease.


Closer to 43W, for that range of speed. 

Forces on Rider


----------



## Wesquire (May 27, 2015)

Poncharelli said:


> Closer to 43W, for that range of speed.
> 
> Forces on Rider


Depends on rider weight and aerodynamics. I weigh ~220lbs so you have to account for that.


----------



## Poncharelli (May 7, 2006)

Wesquire said:


> Depends on rider weight and aerodynamics. I weigh ~220lbs so you have to account for that.


that's good then. the power increase is good but potential weight loss can really help riding ability. Starting from 220 has more potential for performance increase than starting from 170, depending on your body structure of course.


----------



## Wesquire (May 27, 2015)

Poncharelli said:


> that's good then. the power increase is good but potential weight loss can really help riding ability. Starting from 220 has more potential for performance increase than starting from 170, depending on your body structure of course.


I'm never going to be a climber. I'm only 15% body fat right now. I won't ever get under 200lbs unless I lose a good bit of muscle. On the up side, I have a good base to be a crit type sprinter. I've basically got Chris Hoy's physique. I'm also only 24 years old, so I guess everything could still change.


----------



## pedalbiker (Nov 23, 2014)

Poncharelli said:


> So can most people only improve about 100W? do gifted racers just inherently put out 250-300W FTP untrained?
> 
> but I think in general riders who make it to Cat 1/2, usually do it pretty quick. Cat 5 to Cat 3, one year; Cat 3 to 1 the next. I have one friend who did it slow, like 1 category a year, and keeps improving, to the point that he got stars and stripes last year; but I think that was because he got into cycle racing when he was older (34ish).


Yes to the above. I've known some very good riders who basically rolled out of bed with a 300+ watt threshold. 

I took eight years off and within a couple of weeks of riding again was at 305 but about a year later 345. Never been any higher than that. 

It's very rare to be a 1 in two years. Extremely rare. An upgrade a year is a good trajectory (so about 4+ seasons), but the vast, vast majority will never do that. Going from a 3 to a 1 in one season is very aggressive.


----------



## pedalbiker (Nov 23, 2014)

Wesquire said:


> Depends on rider weight and aerodynamics. I weigh ~220lbs so you have to account for that.


It's a flat out guess, nothing more. One day 200 watts may get you 20 mph, one day it's 17.5 Without a powermeter you have absolutely no idea so guesses are just that.


----------



## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

pedalbiker said:


> It's a flat out guess, nothing more. One day 200 watts may get you 20 mph, one day it's 17.5 Without a powermeter you have absolutely no idea so guesses are just that.


Exactly. Of course, EVERYONE has ridden solo 20mph century rides or at least claims to. I ride a lot of the same lumpy courses, but wind is always a big variable. Faster speeds have generally meant that it's not windy.


----------



## Alex_Simmons/RST (Jan 12, 2008)

Wesquire said:


> Anyone know of any rough guidelines for how quickly FTP can be increased? I know this will vary wildly from person to person, but just a best guess on how many watts you can gain in a year?


I have seen between 10% and 100% improvement in about 6 months. It's multifactoral and impossible to answer for an individual without specific prior knowledge about them.


----------



## Alex_Simmons/RST (Jan 12, 2008)

Poncharelli said:


> I've wondered about this too, not so much about rate of progression but improvement limit.
> 
> My first FTP test was in 2007 and resulted at about 220W, at 170 pounds. After years of training, and aging over 40, I've improved to about 280W, but weigh less some years (minimum 160).
> 
> ...


My difference in FTP spanned a 170W range.


----------

