# La Mongie - Stage 12 Analysis.



## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

What a finish! No one could have predicted this (except for the Lance part). What do you think of the stage and how did it fare with your expectations?

How does set up the rest of the Tour?

Here's the top line results for reference:
Stage 12 - July 16: Castelsarrasin - La Mongie, 197.5 km
Results
1 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 5.03.58 (38.98 km/h)
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 
3 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.20
4 Francisco Mancebo Pérez (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 0.24
5 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 0.33
6 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.50
7 Denis Menchov (Rus) Illes Balears - Banesto 0.59
8 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Domina Vacanze 1.02
9 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 1.03
10 Santos Gonzalez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 
11 Georg Totschnig (Aut) Gerolsteiner 
12 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco 1.32
13 Aitor Gonzalez Jimenez (Spa) Fassa Bortolo 1.39
14 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Crédit Agricole 1.59
15 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears - Banesto 
16 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 
17 Pietro Caucchioli (Ita) Alessio-Bianchi 
18 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 2.28
19 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) T-Mobile Team 
20 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 2.30



General classification after stage 12

1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Brioches La Boulangère 51.51.07
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 5.24
3 Sandy Casar (Fra) Fdjeux.com 5.50
4 Richard Virenque (Fra) Quick Step-Davitamon 6.20
5 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 6.33
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 
7 Francisco Mancebo Pérez (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 6.43
8 Jakob Piil (Den) Team CSC 6.53
9 Santos Gonzalez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 7.23
10 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 8.11
11 Jose Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 8.35
12 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 8.50
13 José Enrique Gutierrez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 8.51
14 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 8.57
15 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 8.58
16 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 9.01
17 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 9.11
18 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Domina Vacanze 9.25
19 Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano (Spa) Liberty Seguros 9.42
20 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 9.46
21 Pietro Caucchioli (Ita) Alessio-Bianchi 9.50
22 Georg Totschnig (Aut) Gerolsteiner 9.53
23 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 10.20
24 Aitor Gonzalez Jimenez (Spa) Fassa Bortolo 10.21
25 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 10.26
26 Roberto Heras Hernandez (Spa) Liberty Seguros 10.42
27 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco 10.49
28 Laurent Brochard (Fra) AG2R Prévoyance 10.50
29 Jérôme Pineau (Fra) Brioches La Boulangère 11.46
30 Denis Menchov (Rus) Illes Balears - Banesto 11.49
31 Evgueni Petrov (Rus) Saeco 11.54
32 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 12.06


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

*Tomorrow is still the key day.*

By tomorrow night you will know:


1.) If today was an aberration or not (Did ullrich or hamilton bonk?)
2.) If Lance dug too deep into his reserves?
3.) Were any of the others marshalling their reserves (or not)
4.) Wether Basso dug too deep or not
5.) Who the real podium contenders are.

One day in the mountains only gives a hint, two days straight can tell a real story.

Remember, tomorrow is a harder stage than today.

Voeckler has been heroic but today is his last day in yellow.

Len


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## mr meow meow (Jan 29, 2004)

*this is a whole new tour now...*



francois said:


> What a finish! No one could have predicted this (except for the Lance part). What do you think of the stage and how did it fare with your expectations?
> 
> How does set up the rest of the Tour?
> 
> ...



people will now be watching Basso and Levi although Mayo will always be a threat with all the mountains to come. It ain't over by any means...

BTW- What's with the Asian symbols spread throughout the standings. Is this an encrypted message?


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## Mel Erickson (Feb 3, 2004)

*Here's what I predicted yesterday*

_He's got the team to protect him and keep all the GC contenders under control for the flatter part of the stage. The field will split on Aspin, separating the wheat from the chaf, with maybe someone like Mayo taking a lead. However, the strong teams will have their climbers regroup on the descent and the battle will be on up La Mongie. Lance wins this one, mainly on the strength of the team allowing him to conserve energy and supporting him on the two climbs until he can unleash himself 2/3rd's of the way up La Mongie.

Hamilton, Ullrich, Mayo and maybe Heras, not necessarily in that order. Of course, there will be a wild card or two in the bunch to spice things up._
Looks like Postal controlled the race through the run up to Aspin. The peleton split on the way up. Some of the stronger teams regrouped on the descent. Landis and Azevedo hauled Armstrong up La Mongie and he came in second. What I missed was the other GC contenders falling back on La Mongie and there were more than one or two wild cards in the bunch to spice things up. Right now it looks good for Armstrong and bad for the rest of the usual suspects. I can't wait to watch this when I get home tonight. My wife will be moaning, "Not the Tour de France again!" Last night I gave in and let her watch ER. Tonight is my night. She can go in the basement, fold clothes and watch whatever program she likes


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## gopokes (Mar 7, 2003)

I think you pegged it Len, the Plateau de Beille may select the final podium. La Mongie, my have already selected the winner, though. The heroic efforts of the young Frenchman, Voeckler, to pursue and retain the Maillot jaune have taken their toll- he will be be relieved of it's burden tomorrow. As far as todays stage, Hamilton's disappointing finish was most surprising. While I think he wished to reserve as much as possible for tomorrow, he clearly suffered and had to work very hard to limit his loss to only 4:00. Tyler needs a very strong ride tomorrow, or his podium hopes will be over. I'm just not sure he has it in him. I felt Ullrich was vulnerable in the mountains, and this stage did nothing to change that opinion. He simply cannot match the quick accelerations of the climbers, and Armstrong. This may prove a very difficult Tour for the big German, but he will still make his mark on the final ITT. I thought Mayo would go for this one today, perhaps he has his sights on tomorrow, though. I believe Mayo still has a very good shot at the podium, and will cause some very anxious moments for the other GC contenders in the days ahead. And finally, where the he!! is Roberto Heras? I thought he would assert himself on this stage, if he had the legs at all. I can only conlcude, he was never really a GC threat, contrary to my pre-race thoughts. I had expected Basso to have a good tour, and he has not dissappointed. I would say he rode even stronger today than I thought he could. I do not see him loosing much time in the mountains, and he has a chance to contend for the podium. Then there is Armstrong. Postal is riding very well, and LA is a master at strategy and reserving his efforts for when the maximum amount of damage can be inflicted. He may not be the best rider in the Tour, (then again, he may) but he is definitely the smartest and has the best team. It began, and remains, his tour to loose. He has shown nothing to make me think that he will.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Where were the heads of state???

With 5 km to go, the heads of state were gone... except for Mayo who got dropped too. What the heck happened? There was still a big crowd around Armstrong, but not the players we predicted. What happened to the exciting Tour? Man, this race will be over before it even hits the the much touted Alp d' Huez time trial. Here's the damage:

Iban Mayo (Euskaltel) 1 min 3 sec 
Jan Ullrich - 2 min 30 sec
Roberto Heras (Liberty Seguros) 2 min 57 sec; 
Tyler Hamilton (Phonak) 3 min 27 sec.

Really a sad performance. Heras was all hype it turns out. Tyler forgot to show up. Mayo is so far gone, he really needed to win with a gap. Jan was the picture of agony. It's not over of course but y'all are so far behind Lance y'all need a miracle. You guys performed so badly that your team mates are ahead of you now in the GC. One of you will lose your team support in this tour. Kloden (t-mobile), Gonzalez, Sevilla, Gutierrez(phonak), Galdeano (Seguros) rank higher now in the GC.

Some revelations:

Lance is ready. Lance is hungry. If he doesn't have a bad day, he's gonna win.

Voeckler is out. By tomorrow night, we won't have to see his overexposed face anymore. Good run though.

Basso is for real. There's been a big undercurrent saying that Basso is a contender. He is a contender. I'm very happy he won today. Bravo!

Team CSC - What a powerhouse! Basso, Sastre, Julich. You're the real climbing team, not Euskatel.

Andreas Kloden - who are you? T-mobile? Good job.

Michael Rasmussen - Good ride. You attacked tooo early. What is this, mountain biking?

Obviously, just one stage. But a lot of revelations in the final 10 kilometers. Every year though, it seems though that the Tour has a lot of boring moments and everything boils down to a few key moments. I am hoping for a lot more excitment like last year.

francois


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## Fogdweller (Mar 26, 2004)

*Heras and Hamilton*

Big surprises today. Neither were climbing on form. I can see Ullrich giving up time but these two should have been in the lead group at the end. Must be some health problems that they're not talking about since both have been on form all season. I don't think I've ever seen a performance like that out of Heras. I was also surprised to see Gonzalez and Gutierrez finish so high when their captain was struggling so badly. I hope Tyler can regain some form soon, he deserves a podium finish.


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## gopokes (Mar 7, 2003)

The landscape sure changed today. Based upon the events on La Mongie, it seems Tyler, Heras and Jan are no longer GC threats, maybe they never were. On the radar screen now is Basso, Mayo (still), and this other German guy Kloden (quietly only 1:09 back of LA). While the winner may already have been decided, I think the chaos among the other GC contenders is very interesting- out with the old and in with the new. I also think there are enough difficult climbing stages remaining to make it very interesting for LA- Mayo, Basso and Kloden all appear quite comfortable in the mountains. Trying to be optomistic here, it's just too early for it to have already been decided. Tomorrow could settle it, or make it quite interesting- hope for the latter.


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## Mel Erickson (Feb 3, 2004)

*As someone else pointed out*



francois said:


> Where were the heads of state???
> 
> With 5 km to go, the heads of state were gone... except for Mayo who got dropped too. What the heck happened? There was still a big crowd around Armstrong, but not the players we predicted. What happened to the exciting Tour? Man, this race will be over before it even hits the the much touted Alp d' Huez time trial. Here's the damage:
> 
> ...


Azevedo and Rubiera both finished with the same time as Ullrich and ahead of Heras and Hamilton in today's stage. They're both ahead of all of them in the GC standings. Postal looks strong. I'm kind of wondering what happened to Beltran? Was it the USPS strategy to use him, et al, on Aspin and he was too burned out for La Mongie? Haven't had a chance to see any of the race yet, just velonews and other reports. Tomorrow could be very exciting and I get to see it live, whoopee!


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## Niwot (Jul 16, 2004)

*Only one head of state*



francois said:


> Where were the heads of state???


As we saw today, there is only one head of state.

Ullrich is always at his weakest on the first day in the big mountains, but even by his standards this was a subpar performance. Hamilton was also disappointing. Their maillot jaune hopes are gone unless Lance goes down or has a very bad day. Actually, Armstrong is so far ahead of them, and the other GC contenders, that he could have one very bad day and still win.

Basso was superb today. He's a threat if he looks equally good on the Plateau de Beille tomorrow. Can he time trial? Can he handle the pressure of being a genuine contender? Kloden is also a possibility if he can match his level of today. Both of them could make the podium, though Ullrich and Hamilton could still move up to the podium just because they are so strong in the time trial -- assuming they don't lose 2-3 minutes on every mountain stage.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Niwot said:


> As we saw today, there is only one head of state.
> 
> Ullrich is always at his weakest on the first day in the big mountains, but even by his standards this was a subpar performance. Hamilton was also disappointing. Their maillot jaune hopes are gone unless Lance goes down or has a very bad day. Actually, Armstrong is so far ahead of them, and the other GC contenders, that he could have one very bad day and still win.


I am so sad about the Ullrich situation. Here is a quote from Eurosport:
"I had a very bad day," Ullrich said after the finish. "My legs just didn't feel well. We'll see what happens in the next couple of days, but naturally I'm disappointed. At the beginning of the first climb I was freezing and eventually I couldn't keep up with the Lance. I just couldn't get a good rhythm."

Quick word of Ullrich's misfortune filtered to the US Postal crew, which punched the pace ever higher, throwing the race into oxygen debt."

Ullrich was the picture of pain with a permanent grimace. I'm happy he didn't give up. I know he will have a better day. The gap to Armstrong is just so huge now.

I think the temperature changes going through the thunderstorm screwed up everybody's body and rhythm. It wasn't that Lance took off and dominated. It's just that all the contenders had a meltdown.

francois


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

gopokes said:


> The landscape sure changed today. Based upon the events on La Mongie, it seems Tyler, Heras and Jan are no longer GC threats, maybe they never were. On the radar screen now is Basso, Mayo (still), and this other German guy Kloden (quietly only 1:09 back of LA). While the winner may already have been decided, I think the chaos among the other GC contenders is very interesting- out with the old and in with the new. I also think there are enough difficult climbing stages remaining to make it very interesting for LA- Mayo, Basso and Kloden all appear quite comfortable in the mountains. Trying to be optomistic here, it's just too early for it to have already been decided. Tomorrow could settle it, or make it quite interesting- hope for the latter.


Mayo is not threat to Lance anymore. He is 7 minutes out and he'll get crushed on the final Time Trial. 

I hope he wins a stage though.

francois


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## p lo (Sep 26, 2002)

*Mancebo?*

he looked good and showed himself a few times during the last week too. has a shot at the podium or top 5 i think?


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## CFBlue (Jun 28, 1999)

*Lance loves bad weather*

Other than heat, Lance loves bad weather. Recall that almost any time it was cold and/or raining, he's done well compared to other GC guys. He thrives on it. Also, being somewhat of an opportunist, which you gotta be, when he know Ullrich was hurting, he turned it up to 11.


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*First day in the Mountains*

Stage 10 was not the first mountain stage. Y'all have heard Phil and Paul say that the legs react funny the first day in the mountains and that is made worse by the cold rain that moved thru. 

Expect to see something completely different tommorow!

Tyler always had trouble adapting to first mountain stage even back to his USPS days. JU hates being wet and cold. The Spanish fly climbers don't have the body mass and fat insulation to tough it out on a day like today. (Mancebo is a bit bigger, not a spanish fly)

Don't beleive for a second that the contenders won't bounce back. They will be there tommorow and for the rest of the Tour....but they might be fighting for second and third.

Predictions? There were those of us who predicted good parts of today, we did not nail all of it. See my prediction in the sticky thread (stage by stage).

Big winners:
Basso had a big day and LA offered the stage win to him (when they hit the barriers, LA turned to talk to Basso...) Good Pyranees, bad Alps? But I agree, he looked very comfy at the end there...

CSC: Bjarne loves winning the team prize...good money in it also.

LA: no need to explain...hopefully he did not do TOO much because tommorow is where the real fun is at.

Kloden: getting out from under the shadow! If Kloden continues and Vino recovers, the Tmob juggernaut might implode. It will be interesting to watch the German team in Athen! 

Minor winners
Everyone who finished between LA and JU.
Mancebo good ride. Levi also.
Young surprises: now we have confirmation why JML invited Domina to the Tour. M 
Scarponi showed well. Another young face to watch (but not in the young rider classification, a year too old) Evgeni Petrov Saeco...riding in Simoni's shadow but doing ok for himself. He won the under 23 RR and TT a couple years ago and turned pro with Saeco and has matured. I beleive this is his first tour. 3:27 down today, interesting to watch him become the better Saeco rider in this Tour. (At least he won't whine as much)

Piil ?!? after all those breaks he still hangs in? 32 at 3:09...good grief man, take a day off...wish I had that type of form.

Big Losers:  
Tyler will bounce back and still win tommorow....I hope.

Zubeldia? did not show good form leading up to the Tour...not showing well during the Tour.

Triki Beltran...I raised a bit of a question mark about his a couple days ago...time for more question marks. 

GAME ON today...GAME ON tommorow.


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## gopokes (Mar 7, 2003)

Agreed, Mayo is out of the hunt (barring something really bizzare). But he will make things interesting in the mountain stages and the AD ITT, and could podium.


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## giovanni sartori (Feb 5, 2004)

*This just in*

As for Armstrong, who won here in 2002, the 32-year-old American said he had allowed Basso to win the stage because he is trying to help the Italian's mother in her fight against cancer. 

"He's a hell of a good guy," Armstrong said. "We've been friends for a long time, and off the bike we're trying to work a little bit on his mom's situation, to try and see if she can win the fight against cancer. 

"It's pretty special for me to have been out there with him, and the past week we haven't spoken about the race, we've spoken about his mom. It was a pleasure for me to let him (Basso) win, and he deserved to win. He was super strong."


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

*my analysis: clockwork postal.*

The weather made the first move today, and it was the Postal team that responded. 

On the penultimate climb they set a fast pace. As things developed, they soon learned of trouble they were causing by their pace. So they turned it up from fast to faster. From that point on they burned support at a calculated rate. They calmly and safely surrounded Lance, guiding him to the front for the last climb.

Tick, tick, tick went the team. Falling off one by one.

Ticktickticktickticktickticktick went Lance. He looked like he could go on forever. It was VERY impressive. I think tomorrow he goes for the throat, and tries to get people to start racing for second.


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## george_da_trog (Feb 12, 2004)

francois said:


> Where were the heads of state???
> 
> With 5 km to go, the heads of state were gone... except for Mayo who got dropped too. What the heck happened? There was still a big crowd around Armstrong, but not the players we predicted. What happened to the exciting Tour? Man, this race will be over before it even hits the the much touted Alp d' Huez time trial. Here's the damage:
> 
> ...


Hey francois, it may be time to get a new braclet.

This has been the first action since stage 4, I've been falling asleep on these flat stages and today we finally get a good race. I don't think Jan is out...... wait... yeah I do...he's out.

I was really disapointed in Tyler, Heras and Mayo. Does T-moble get a new team leader?

george


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## Coot72 (Nov 11, 2002)

*Lance's Hammer Revealed*

Lance has the "eye of the tiger" this Tour, and it showed today. His body language has been the key (IMO) all along. The prologue, the aura of confidence when speaking to the press, his ride over the cobbles, the TTT, and the "sprints" the last few days. Lance looked like he was dying to finally be able to ride.

I agree with some of the others....Mayo and Tyler are done. Ullrich usually improves, but he's too tactically challenged to win the GC. Barring crashes, I think the winner has already been decided. 

Basso is looking good. Kloden too! I'm impressed. 

Coot!


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## rufus (Feb 3, 2004)

didn't hamilton lose time on the la mongie stage a few years ago too? may be just that these climbs don't suit his style. 

while he lost time to armstrong, i was glad to see bobby julich climbing in the ulrich group. while he didn't look great, he didn't look like he was barely hanging on either. i've always been a fan of julich and at least for this first mountain stage, he's probably climbing the best he has since 1998. i'm hoping he can hang in there, maybe pick off a few of the guys currently ahead of him, maybe get a top ten finish.

that riis is a helluva team manager, eh? sastre, basso, piil, julich, all looking at maybe top twenty. and last year he had three finish in the top 15.


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## 996vtwin (May 11, 2004)

giovanni sartori said:


> As for Armstrong, who won here in 2002, the 32-year-old American said he had allowed Basso to win the stage because he is trying to help the Italian's mother in her fight against cancer.
> 
> "He's a hell of a good guy," Armstrong said. "We've been friends for a long time, and off the bike we're trying to work a little bit on his mom's situation, to try and see if she can win the fight against cancer.
> 
> "It's pretty special for me to have been out there with him, and the past week we haven't spoken about the race, we've spoken about his mom. It was a pleasure for me to let him (Basso) win, and he deserved to win. He was super strong."


OMG why dosent Lance shut his pie hole about giving away stages. He did it to Pantini and got schooled the next day. A humble person that gives a gift dosent speak about it!!!
So he says he gives away the stage....and Basso's glory goes down the drain....Lance's mouth is too big.


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## Coot72 (Nov 11, 2002)

*Tyler was sick in 2002*



rufus said:


> didn't hamilton lose time on the la mongie stage a few years ago too? may be just that these climbs don't suit his style.
> 
> while he lost time to armstrong, i was glad to see bobby julich climbing in the ulrich group. while he didn't look great, he didn't look like he was barely hanging on either. i've always been a fan of julich and at least for this first mountain stage, he's probably climbing the best he has since 1998. i'm hoping he can hang in there, maybe pick off a few of the guys currently ahead of him, maybe get a top ten finish.
> 
> that riis is a helluva team manager, eh? sastre, basso, piil, julich, all looking at maybe top twenty. and last year he had three finish in the top 15.


In 2002, Tyler had tendonitis in his wrist or elbow and became sick from the medication he was taking. So Tyler was down and out for a few stages and had a less than stellar Tour.


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## drewski711 (Apr 8, 2004)

According to velonews, Julich said he had great legs today and could have been higher up in the standings but was instructed to sit on Ullrich's wheel and not bring him up. CSC is tough...


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## asmith (Jun 26, 2004)

He may or may not have given away the stage. Only Lance knows for sure. Regardless of how you feel about his comments, you have to wonder if they were another one of his mind games that he uses to help demoralize the Peloton every year.If the Peloton thinks he gave the stage away, they are going to worry about how they will keep up with him tomorrow and in the remaining stages. If they think he bluffed, they might blow themselves up and lose time to him the rest of the tour.

Lance may or may not be the most physically talented rider in the tour, but his talent combined with the teams tactics and his mental games definately make up for any fitness he has lost with age.

Andrew


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*bravo bobby*



drewski711 said:


> According to velonews, Julich said he had great legs today and could have been higher up in the standings but was instructed to sit on Ullrich's wheel and not bring him up. CSC is tough...


if that's the case good work. you may have helped Ivan to the podium.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

drewski711 said:


> According to velonews, Julich said he had great legs today and could have been higher up in the standings but was instructed to sit on Ullrich's wheel and not bring him up. CSC is tough...


Interesting. Julich did look fresh in the end and looked like he could have made up a few seconds.

francois.


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## rufus (Feb 3, 2004)

drewski711 said:


> According to velonews, Julich said he had great legs today and could have been higher up in the standings but was instructed to sit on Ullrich's wheel and not bring him up. CSC is tough...


if that's the case, here's hoping he gets a chance on some of the later stages to ride for himself, and see what he can do. perhaps if basso or sastre falter, or maybe if he does a good effort in the l'alpe duez TT. 

and even then, if he's just relegated to following wheels, depending who else falters, there's lots of opportunity for him to climb the standings.

did i mention i've always liked bobby julich? ever since he was the top amateur finisher in the tour dupont in what, 1991?


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## rufus (Feb 3, 2004)

well, so much for a good ride from julich. he just gives a tease, and then falls back again.


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