# Stat for Stat Contador will WIN the Tour de France



## master2129 (Mar 30, 2007)

I hate to admit it, but Alberto Contador will win the Tour de France again for the 2nd time in his young life. Love him or hate him, the guy OWNS the mountain stages. No one, not even Lance, can hang with him. If his 2nd TT time holds, he will be holding that hideous looking blue cup over his head in Paris. This is my humble prediction.


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## gizzard (Oct 5, 2005)

master2129 said:


> I hate to admit it, but Alberto Contador will win the Tour de France again for the 2nd time in his young life. Love him or hate him, the guy OWNS the mountain stages. No one, not even Lance, can hang with him. If his 2nd TT time holds, he will be holding that hideous looking blue cup over his head in Paris. This is my humble prediction.


It's your humble prediction, but it's as wrong as it is humble. The only thing we learned today was that AC cannot follow team orders. That and the fact that Bradley Wiggins could be a future contender now that he is 7,5kg lighter.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

master2129 said:


> I hate to admit it, but Alberto Contador will win the Tour de France again for the 2nd time in his young life. Love him or hate him, the guy OWNS the mountain stages. No one, not even Lance, can hang with him. If his 2nd TT time holds, he will be holding that hideous looking blue cup over his head in Paris. This is my humble prediction.



Whatever stats you're referring to. The only stat that counts who survives to Paris with shortest elapsed time. We'll see...


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## Frith (Oct 3, 2002)

Oh good!... I was hoping someone would post *another* thread on the theme of Lance vs. Contador.
The forum is certainly lacking in that regard today.

Thx!


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## jsedlak (Jun 17, 2008)

Frith said:


> Oh good!... I was hoping someone would post *another* thread on the theme of Lance vs. Contador.
> The forum is certainly lacking in that regard today.
> 
> Thx!


As much as it is annoying, you got to admit that the other GC guys aren't nearly as exciting as the Astana team dynamic.


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## Frith (Oct 3, 2002)

Totally agree. In fact I think I'll start a new thread about it right now.


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## WAZCO (Sep 16, 2004)

gizzard said:


> AC cannot follow team orders. That and the fact that Bradley Wiggins could be a future contender now that he is 7,5kg lighter.


If AC follows order he won't win the race. I hope Wiggin is the future :thumbsup:


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## mangotreat0808 (Sep 4, 2006)

*Team dynamic and "gifts"*



jsedlak said:


> As much as it is annoying, you got to admit that the other GC guys aren't nearly as exciting as the Astana team dynamic.


And as if we're the only ones spawning threads, angles on the dynamic duo's TDF adventures, here's a non-RBR perspective from Sports Illustrated..

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/austin_murphy/07/10/contador.armstrong/


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## master2129 (Mar 30, 2007)

gizzard said:


> It's your humble prediction, but it's as wrong as it is humble. The only thing we learned today was that AC cannot follow team orders. That and the fact that Bradley Wiggins could be a future contender now that he is 7,5kg lighter.


Wrong? You may be correct. But we'll have to wait and see. Right now, no one can hang with Contadors climbing speed or power. He's unstoppable when going up.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

No gifts!


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## master2129 (Mar 30, 2007)

DZfan14 said:


> No gifts!


My thoughts exactly.

I think Armstrong thought he would just waltz back into the Tour de France to bended knees in the Peloton. Unfortunately, everyone has his number including his own Teammates. Today showed how human Armstrong really is, and even worse, how quickly loyalty to team vanishes when personal glory is right around the corner. Literally.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

I thought Armstrong was the consummate pro today. When Evans attacked, as soon as Lance caught up he took position right in front of Contador. When Contador attacked Armstrong covered everything and rode 2nd/3rd wheel all the way up. What should be noticed was he did all of this easily. Maybe Lance will show him where to attack later in the race. ;-)


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## master2129 (Mar 30, 2007)

davidka said:


> I thought Armstrong was the consummate pro today. When Evans attacked, as soon as Lance caught up he took position right in front of Contador. When Contador attacked Armstrong covered everything and rode 2nd/3rd wheel all the way up. What should be noticed was he did all of this easily. Maybe Lance will show him where to attack later in the race. ;-)


I hope so. This TDF is one of the best I've seen.


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## atimido (Jun 17, 2009)

master2129 said:


> I hate to admit it, but Alberto Contador will win the Tour de France again for the 2nd time in his young life. Love him or hate him, the guy OWNS the mountain stages. No one, not even Lance, can hang with him. If his 2nd TT time holds, he will be holding that hideous looking blue cup over his head in Paris. This is my humble prediction.



It's too early to make a prediction. Just keep watching.


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## LeDomestique (Jan 17, 2007)

master2129 said:


> I hope so. This TDF is one of the best I've seen.


True, pretty good tour so far. The whole Astana freak show only adds to the tour entertainment


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Astana*

runs a tempo so hot it wrecks the peloton
the pace is so brutal no one can attack
Contador squirts away from it like they were Cat 2s


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## 5500OCLV (Jul 11, 2009)

atpjunkie said:


> runs a tempo so hot it wrecks the peloton
> the pace is so brutal no one can attack
> Contador squirts away from it like they were Cat 2s


Looks like you got it right...


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## agm2 (Sep 18, 2008)

davidka said:


> I thought Armstrong was the consummate pro today. When Evans attacked, as soon as Lance caught up he took position right in front of Contador. When Contador attacked Armstrong covered everything and rode 2nd/3rd wheel all the way up. What should be noticed was he did all of this easily. Maybe Lance will show him where to attack later in the race. ;-)


Love him or hate him you gotta admit that Lance is one of the smarter racers out there with regards to tactics. He made the break earlier in the week. He knows when to attack and when to set tempo. How many riders have gotten the yellow jersey this early and held onto it all the way to Paris. There's way to much racing left to do and I think the climbing has just started. My prediction is he'll wait till the time is right to make his move, when the opportunity presents itself. AC is a great rider and climber but he's young and he still makes mistakes, I'm thinking Paris-Nice and missing the break. He'll be a great rider but is still young.

With all that said GO WIGGINS and VDV!


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## rydog9991 (Jul 15, 2008)

Frith said:


> Totally agree. In fact I think I'll start a new thread about it right now.



Did you do it? I've been looking all over for it. :thumbsup:


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

gizzard said:


> That and the fact that Bradley Wiggins could be a future contender now that he is 7,5kg lighter.


bradley wiggins was in the main group because it was not a difficult climb


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Either way, Astana are still sitting very nicely right now. Klöden looked VERY steady before he lost a little time though. Hmm maybe he just doesn't want to work too hard and has resigned himself to being a super domestique without worrying AT ALL about how he places on the GC?

Just a thought.

I say that because while Levi is also the doemstique, it also seems that he would like to place as high as possible in the end - why? Coz he crashed, was dropped a few bike lengths but fought his way back up instead of just staying there. That's why. 

And what about Zubeldia? What a climber indeed as well.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

gizzard said:


> It's your humble prediction, but it's as wrong as it is humble. The only thing we learned today was that AC cannot follow team orders. That and the fact that Bradley Wiggins could be a future contender now that he is 7,5kg lighter.


Cancellara also lost about 7kg apparently from what the commentators said.

Guess he needs to lose more!


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

master2129 said:


> ]he guy OWNS the mountain stages. No one, not even Lance, can hang with him.


If he DOES own them they're on loan to him from Rasmussen. 
I liked the bit where blubbering :sad: Bert got his butt kicked going uphill in 2007.


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## master2129 (Mar 30, 2007)

saird said:


> If he DOES own them they're on loan to him from Rasmussen.
> I liked the bit where blubbering :sad: Bert got his butt kicked going uphill in 2007.


Only reason Rasmussen was climbing so well was because we was so EPO'd up that the only thing he could do was climb.


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

master2129 said:


> Only reason Rasmussen was climbing so well was because we was so EPO'd up that the only thing he could do was climb.


Yeah, contadoper is riding on bread and water.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

saird said:


> Yeah, contadoper is riding on bread and water.


How long before this thread gets moved to that other forum?


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## Andrew1 (May 27, 2009)

Well, looks like we know where this one's headed. 

To answer the OP, I'll just defer to this awesome ad. It even has it's own thread, but is worth watching again:


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## master2129 (Mar 30, 2007)

Like I predicted. Contador will win the 2009 TDF with flying colors. I can't wait for Ventoux. R.I.P. Lance. Contador has your number.


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## Borti (Aug 1, 2008)

I still think for his age and time away - Lance performed exceptionally today. You cannot even compare a Contador from two years ago to his form now. He has gotten better while Lance has gotten worse (but still maintains the position of one of the worlds best at 37).

Lance beat some exceptional cyclists today - he really did. He was only beat by those who are the absolute best of the best (Sastre, Schlek's, Evans (Wiggins?) and of course, Contador).

I wonder how the skeptics position would have changed if Lance came back and said, "I am doing this for worldwide Cancer awareness and I will be riding in support of our Team Leader: Alberto Contador." I think he would have garnered more sympathy and some may have found his cause more noble and authentic. Now I cannot hold back the thought that Lance thought he was going to storm the field and prove he is the best with 3 years off of the bike and age working against him. Who knows... still some bike racing left but it is not looking that great for him.


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## lookrider (Dec 3, 2006)

master2129 said:


> Like I predicted. Contador will win the 2009 TDF with flying colors. I can't wait for Ventoux. R.I.P. Lance. Contador has your number.


There's a lot of time left.......
















for LA to lose more time..


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## Snakebitten (Jun 26, 2008)

LA got nothing to be ashamed of. He beat the heck out of most of the peloton. He finished 9th folks at 37yo. He beat much much younger guys and is in 2nd place. Even if he doesnt win the TDF [doesnt look likely now] the man has competed at the highest level at 37yo, coming back from a 3 1/2 years off and a broken colar bone. Sorry but I dont see a loser in LA at all. That being said all hail the new chief of the TDF. AC is now the man to beat period. Imagine LA's tactical mind with AC ability and thats just downright scarry. AC is no fool but you gotta admit he isnt "yet" on LA's level in terms of mindset and tactics. He will get there fast if he absorbs as much as he can from LA while he is still around.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*as I said he would*

today Saxo wound it up and Contador rode away
last week he was just testing
If I was Contador I'd be making nice w. Johann and Lance. Without the organization, team work and TTT dominance, his lead wouldn't be as comfortable
If I was Lance I'd become his mentor. If somebody is gonna break your record, might as well say "I helped him do it". Lance should become a DS/development and race masters level CX in the off season to satisfy his itch to compete on a bike. He could be like Ned.

So Lance should be a faithful dom and hope for a podium finish. Johann and Contador should mend any fences as together they are better than alone.


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## karatemom (Mar 21, 2008)

I agree no one can match Contador's accelerations on a hill (God, I wish I could do that!) but as far as the overall race goes, I think it will be closer than people think. Lance did a good job of limiting his losses today, and he is the smarter rider and better tactician. If AC has a bad day...there is still quite a bit of the Tour left.


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## juswannaride (May 13, 2009)

master2129 said:


> My thoughts exactly.
> 
> I think Armstrong thought he would just waltz back into the Tour de France to bended knees in the Peloton. Unfortunately, everyone has his number including his own Teammates. Today showed how human Armstrong really is, and even worse, how quickly loyalty to team vanishes when personal glory is right around the corner. Literally.


Id like to see you ride as well as he does at his age...armstrong is awesome but I have my own opinion as to why he is back. anyways i do like all the riders on the astana team.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

juswannaride said:


> Id like to see you ride as well as he does at his age...armstrong is awesome but I have my own opinion as to why he is back. anyways i do like all the riders on the astana team.


Master2129 did not unretire and try to oust the GC leader of a pro tour team. Someone else did. Then he 'limited' his losses to 1:28 while being paced by a team mate.


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## Henry Porter (Jul 25, 2006)

Andrew1 said:


> Well, looks like we know where this one's headed.
> 
> To answer the OP, I'll just defer to this awesome ad. It even has it's own thread, but is worth watching again:


I can't stand it if only because evolution isn't about the strong surviving.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

karatemom said:


> I agree no one can match Contador's accelerations on a hill (God, I wish I could do that!) but as far as the overall race goes, I think it will be closer than people think. Lance did a good job of limiting his losses today, and he is the smarter rider and better tactician. If AC has a bad day...there is still quite a bit of the Tour left.


Let's see........

As far as LA is concerned:

- Couln't go with the top 8 GC contenders today....check
- Couldn't go on a less than HC climb.....check
- 37 year old legs that need more recovery than 30 YO legs....check
- coming into the hardest week of the tour.....check
- Multriple hard climbing dys ahead....check
- An ITT ahead that LA has to see as a large chance to get some time back........check (Which means he will have to dig deep....see the comment about recovery above)
- Finally Ventoux, one of the hardest climb in the tour, and everyone's last chance to get time......check.

As to Contador......

There are only 3 things that can stop him wearing yellow in Paris now:

- Bonk
- Accident
- Untimely mechanical
- Positive test.

len


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## oarsman (Nov 6, 2005)

Len J said:


> Let's see........
> 
> 
> There are only 3 things that can stop him wearing yellow in Paris now:
> ...


Actually, that's 4  

And you forgot one: deliberate lacing of his food with salmonella or e.coli.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

oarsman said:


> Actually, that's 4
> 
> And you forgot one: deliberate lacing of his food with salmonella or e.coli.


I thought of another one while I was typing the 3. :mad2: 

LOL on the lacing.....see NASCAR

Len


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## master2129 (Mar 30, 2007)

I really love what Lance brings to the Tour. No doubt it has been a great climatic build up to this final week. I still think that Ventoux will bring some unexpected fireworks from LA. But I think Contador has something special in his legs. His power is ridiculous. His accelerations are downright silly when you think about the conditions he does this type of attack in. But he survives and gains time. I think Lance is actually kind of relieved. I totally respect his honest analysis and candor during his post race interview. I will always be a Lance Fan. But this tour, and possibly future tours, belongs to Conti. All hail to Astana.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Len you forgot*



Len J said:


> - Couln't go with the top 8 GC contenders today....check
> - Couldn't go on a less than HC climb.....check
> - 37 year old legs that need more recovery than 30 YO legs....check
> - coming into the hardest week of the tour.....check
> ...


 - dropped by Cadel Evans - check


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## juswannaride (May 13, 2009)

Maximus_XXIV said:


> Master2129 did not unretire and try to oust the GC leader of a pro tour team. Someone else did. Then he 'limited' his losses to 1:28 while being paced by a team mate.


Armstrong isnt the first pro to unretire from a sport...I do believe Lance is back for a reason but I'm not sure winning the tour is his number 1 goal there. Like I said before I have my opinion of why he is back and it isnt to win the whole thing. Anyways "being paced by his team mate" Looks to me like Armstrong paces Conti most of the way from what I watch on Versus...so a little pace work from Kloden for Armstrong is OK by my standards, and even saying that some of the best riders on the other teams have the pace riders doing the work as well so I wouldnt go pointing fingers at JUST Armstrong when everyone else is doing it too.:thumbsup:


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

Andrew1 said:


> Well, looks like we know where this one's headed.
> 
> To answer the OP, I'll just defer to this awesome ad. It even has it's own thread, but is worth watching again:


Lance and others are going to need a whole lot more than 'passion' and 'race smarts' to get up Ventoux first.


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## master2129 (Mar 30, 2007)

function said:


> Lance and others are going to need a whole lot more than 'passion' and 'race smarts' to get up Ventoux first.


I actually tried to ride up Ventoux in my late 20's. I was walking my bike at 20K. It is very hard to breathe up there. And I thought I was in shape. I don't care how hard you train. It is going to be tough for Contador and every guy in the Peloton to make it up that crazy climb. In my mind, I think there will be some big surprises that will shock a lot of spectators and fans. I know I will be glued to the tube during the live feed of that stage. :thumbsup:


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## swuzzlebubble (Aug 4, 2008)

http://www.sportsscientists.com/2009/07/tour-2009-contador-climb.html


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