# Might Schleck think that



## Hawayyan (Feb 26, 2002)

if he just mirrors Contador and keeps his 30 second lead going into the ITT, that he might be able to stay within that 30 seconds after the ITT and win the TDF?


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

Hawayyan said:


> if he just mirrors Contador and keeps his 30 second lead going into the ITT, that he might be able to stay within that 30 seconds after the ITT and win the TDF?


Still a hill or two to go. I wish Frank was there.


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## louise (May 24, 2010)

If he is thinking that, he's nuts.

In the meantime he's allowing other riders who are better TT'rs than him to gain time.


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## nims (Jul 7, 2009)

louise said:


> If he is thinking that, he's nuts.
> 
> In the meantime he's allowing other riders who are better TT'rs than him to gain time.


Except there is 3 days to go. Contador looks nervous to me, trying to attack all the time. If he was so certain he'd win with the TT he wouldn't be wasting energy on the slopes. 

If schleck can find 30 seconds, I think he could win it. A one minute advantage could be enough.


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## Hawayyan (Feb 26, 2002)

This was from a Velonews article after he took yellow on the 11th:

“I know I need to be in yellow on the start ramp,” Schleck said. “If I go into the time trial in second position I won’t beat Cadel or Alberto. I don’t know what sort of lead I’ll need; I can’t tell you a number now, if it’s one minute, or 10 minutes. I do know that when I have pressure in a time trial, I can go really, really fast. I might not need as much time as you think. I’m not going to pull a time trial like I did at the prologue. I’m going to do better than that.”

I just wonder if he believes 30 seconds is enough?


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

It appeared that today was about showing ac that he couldn't get away while not expending more energy than necessary. It also looked like Andy was never udder stress while ac looked under stress. 

I think Andy is confident he can drop alberto in th coming days. 

Len


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

Contador put 42 seconds on Andy at the Prologue
Samuel Sanchez and Menchov put 13 seconds on Andy.

If we extrapolate that intervals from the 8.9Km to the 52Km for the coming ITT

then Alberto can put 4 minutes on Andy and Sanchez could put 1'15"


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## cpark (Oct 13, 2004)

Just heard Schleck saying "Let Denis Menchov go because he is not a threat for GC".
He must've forgotten DM can TT much better than him.......


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## tinkerbeast (Jul 24, 2009)

Salsa_Lover said:


> Contador put 42 seconds on Andy at the Prologue
> Samuel Sanchez and Menchov put 13 seconds on Andy.
> 
> If we extrapolate that intervals from the 8.9Km to the 52Km for the coming ITT
> ...


if only TT'ing was that simple...


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## mangotreat0808 (Sep 4, 2006)

The name of the game for Andy (not a top ITT rider) is to put more time between him and Bert..for him the only option is to attack on the hills; he also needs to stay on the wheel of a DennisM, or SammyS when they do attack, as they did in the last kilometers, but Andy still stayed with his riding buddy, AC.


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## cpark (Oct 13, 2004)

Salsa_Lover said:


> Contador put 42 seconds on Andy at the Prologue
> Samuel Sanchez and Menchov put 13 seconds on Andy.
> 
> If we extrapolate that intervals from the 8.9Km to the 52Km for the coming ITT
> ...


'

I wouldn't expect the same types on time in ITT.
Seldom, a rider puts on a yellow jersey, and become a different rider.....
I expect AS will do a TT of his life.
If I were AC, he will want to take some more time on Thursday, the only uphill finish left for the tour.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

nims said:


> Except there is 3 days to go. Contador looks nervous to me, trying to attack all the time. If he was so certain he'd win with the TT he wouldn't be wasting energy on the slopes.
> 
> If schleck can find 30 seconds, I think he could win it. A one minute advantage could be enough.


Another 30 seconds will not be enough. Contador will destroy Andy in ITT by at least 1.5-2 minutes. Schleck needs to attack. He is foolish for just sitting on Contador and covering his attacks. And Menchov (who is a great ITT as well) is getting closer - a few days like today and he may lose not just his top spot, but 2nd place as well.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

I may think that Contador is trying to depress Andy. While Andy is trying to flip the script and push C to make time by riding his wheel.

Contador didnt appear to really go after Andy with those attacks. I think they were digs to test Andy (which he responded accordingly). But the whole coming to almost complete track stands and starts shows Contador controlling Andy's actions. It is all mental. Physically, climbing they appear equal. It really is Andy's to make the move. Following C won't cover it. 



31 seconds isnt enough in the ITT.

I am probably wrong.


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## 95zpro (Mar 28, 2010)

JohnHenry said:


> I may think that Contador is trying to depress Andy. While Andy is trying to flip the script and push C to make time by riding his wheel.
> 
> Contador didnt appear to really go after Andy with those attacks. I think they were digs to test Andy (which he responded accordingly). But the whole coming to almost complete track stands and starts shows Contador controlling Andy's actions. It is all mental. Physically, climbing they appear equal. It really is Andy's to make the move. Following C won't cover it.
> 
> ...


I agree with you, just covering AC's attacks ain't going to cover it. AC didn't look like he was pushing too hard at all with his attacks; just the icing on the cake after his teammates did most of the damage with their tempo riding at the front. It appears that he is probably taking the snap out of Andy's legs for the TT while also allowing Sanchez and others to gain time on Andy. 

We could have the potential to see Andy go from yellow to off the podium if he plays AC's game which appears to be a brilliant strategy! AC to me showed his superiority not by beating Andy but by controlling his actions. Look for Astana to keep pushing the pace and destroying Andy's legs for Saturday. :thumbsup:


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## dwgranda (Sep 8, 2009)

I think Contador was expecting an attack from Andy since he thinks Andy wants more time. Then he would counterattack when Andy had wasted some energy. When that didn't come he tried some stuff at the end but decided it wasn't worth it. It's a waiting game now, maybe they mark each other until the last possible moment.

Why didn't Contador attack when Andy went to the back on the penultimate climb? Did he think it was too far, or didn't want to take a risk on the descent? Makes me think the plan for the day was to wait for Andy to attack.



JohnHenry said:


> I may think that Contador is trying to depress Andy. While Andy is trying to flip the script and push C to make time by riding his wheel.
> 
> Contador didnt appear to really go after Andy with those attacks. I think they were digs to test Andy (which he responded accordingly). But the whole coming to almost complete track stands and starts shows Contador controlling Andy's actions. It is all mental. Physically, climbing they appear equal. It really is Andy's to make the move. Following C won't cover it.
> 
> ...


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## T-shirt (Aug 15, 2004)

GoGo was saying on the Velo News stage preview that Alberto would probably try gain some time back from Andy today. In that case, Andy must feel pretty good about today's results.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

dwgranda said:


> I think Contador was expecting an attack from Andy since he thinks Andy wants more time. Then he would counterattack when Andy had wasted some energy. When that didn't come he tried some stuff at the end but decided it wasn't worth it. It's a waiting game now, maybe they mark each other until the last possible moment.
> 
> Why didn't Contador attack when Andy went to the back on the penultimate climb? Did he think it was too far, or didn't want to take a risk on the descent? Makes me think the plan for the day was to wait for Andy to attack.


it might have been considered bad form to attack at that point...but contador was riding a way back, as well.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

T-shirt said:


> GoGo was saying on the Velo News stage preview that Alberto would probably try gain some time back from Andy today. In that case, Andy must feel pretty good about today's results.


Yeah, I'm sure Andy is basing his tactics on the Velonews team guesses, they're not much better analysts than many people here, they do have a hottie showing the stage previews though. 

I would think Andy listens more to Contador himself saying he would maybe attack but would not risk too much, would try to not lose too much energy and be conservative unless he sees Andy having a bad day.

I think both Schleck and Contador think the right time to make a meaningful attack is on the finish up the Tourmalet... But to me, Contador is clearly in the driver's seat. He has the TT on his side obviously but, even with all the comments before the Tour saying how Astana has a crappy team, they aren't, they are one of the strongest team, maybe even better than Saxo right now.


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## jsedlak (Jun 17, 2008)

Lot's of racing to go.


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## soup67 (Feb 26, 2004)

dwgranda said:


> Why didn't Contador attack when Andy went to the back on the penultimate climb?


Contador was in the back too-- Andy marked C all day, from what I saw.


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

That track stand bit sure got Paul's attention.


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## tober1 (Feb 6, 2009)

He outlines his thoughts pretty well here. 
Am I the only one that's really starting to like AS? 

http://www.steephill.tv/players/ver...id=/MnodeQDvLPRdeNtuGN5zp1kuBePG4i0T/500/720/


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## thesmokingman (Dec 27, 2008)

Andy is in la la land. That TT is going to kill him. Where does he think he will crack Contador to gain the time he needs going into the TT?


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

JohnHenry said:


> it might have been considered bad form to attack at that point...but contador was riding a way back, as well.


would have been bad form when he went back to the car. Then he sat in the last third of the pack on the rest of the climb. At that point he would have been fair game but astana did not take the bait.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

tober1 said:


> He outlines his thoughts pretty well here.
> Am I the only one that's really starting to like AS?
> 
> http://www.steephill.tv/players/ver...id=/MnodeQDvLPRdeNtuGN5zp1kuBePG4i0T/500/720/


I must say his definition of a short steep climb is different than mine


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

tober1 said:


> Am I the only one that's really starting to like AS?


I dont think so...


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## 97G8tr (Jul 31, 2007)

thesmokingman said:


> Andy is in la la land. That TT is going to kill him. Where does he think he will crack Contador to gain the time he needs going into the TT?


Not sure - but he probably needs upward of 2minutes.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

He shouldn't only keep an eye on Contador, Menchov too, he's close enough to maybe put Andy in 3rd after the TT.


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## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

Personally couldn't make anything out of today.I doubt that was the best AC could do as a move against Shleck - seemed more like testing the waters. But I can just as well say that I'm not sure is AS is sleepin' on the attacks as well.

Basically, I think that "show" they put on was nothing compared to what will come tomorrow or the day after. I think things are more in AC's favor, although I'm coming to believe Schleck's ability to execute and his drive is no less. AC just has the wins under his belt to create a better read on the Tour "forecast".


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Dan Gerous said:


> He shouldn't only keep an eye on Contador, Menchov too, he's close enough to maybe put Andy in 3rd after the TT.


Schleck should ask Vaughters for advice - with his help Schleck can finish 4th on GC and 2nd on numerous stages.


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## louise (May 24, 2010)

the only reason Andy is even this close to being in contention is that Cancellera paced him through the cobbles.

Without Cancellera running the big diesel that day Andy is 2+ minutes back, not even considered to be a threat/

He has talent and strength, just doesn't have the smarts to use them yet.

He will probably win someday, but not in the next 2 or 3 years.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

this:



95zpro said:


> We could have the potential to see Andy go from yellow to off the podium if he plays AC's game which appears to be a brilliant strategy! AC to me showed his superiority not by beating Andy but by controlling his actions. Look for Astana to keep pushing the pace and destroying Andy's legs for Saturday. :thumbsup:


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## VKW (Jul 26, 2009)

Salsa_Lover said:


> Contador put 42 seconds on Andy at the Prologue
> Samuel Sanchez and Menchov put 13 seconds on Andy.
> 
> If we extrapolate that intervals from the 8.9Km to the 52Km for the coming ITT
> ...


Did Andy start the prologue in the morning? If so, that time could have been shorter if he had done the TT when the roads were dryer.

If you compare last year, the ITT was 40.5Km. Contador finished 1'45" ahead of Andy. Extrapolate that interval from 40.5Km to the 52Km for the last ITT then the advantage is 2'15" for Contador.

Andy needs to gain more time in the coming stages. Short of a strategic mistake or crash, I don't see Andy winning on pure ability alone.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

55x11 said:


> Schleck should ask Vaughters for advice - with his help Schleck can finish 4th on GC and 2nd on numerous stages.


Heh. 

:thumbsup:


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## Perico (Mar 15, 2010)

A few comments:

1) Schleck has done very well in races on the Pave, so I doubt he would have lost time to AC, who has never raced on the pave.

2) People talk about head games, but at what point does AC have to be wondering if Schleck has something more then anyone knows for the ITT since he is not doing what everyone says he must do.

3) AC definitely is not anywhere close to what he was last year. He looked like he was putting out a lot today, judging from all of his grimacing. He also had to put in some serious work to close the gaps today, when last year he would have cruised back up.

4) What a bizarre stage. When was the last time you saw the top two contenders go up an HC climb 20+ people from the front, especially the second to last climb of the day. I don't think I have ever seen a leader send his whole team to the front and then sit 10 spots back from them. Add that to AS just marking AC and it was strange.


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## bill1109 (Feb 5, 2006)

What in the world is AS going all the way back to the team car for? That is a very dangerous thing to do...does he not think he can be attacked when doing that? Either he is saving something no one has ever seen for the Tourmalet or he is being a bit too confident...if Contador takes off while he's back at the team car the race is over. His time trialing ability while only 40 sec in front of Contador is another reason I'd think he'd show more caution. Oh well, interesting days ahead and it's fun to watch them. Still think Contador is just waiting for the right time...and if not he can just wait until the time trial.


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## nOOky (Mar 20, 2009)

I hope AS's strategy is to save his energy and attack on the last big climb of the Tourmalet. Perhaps it looks to him like AC is having a harder time of it, but he doesn't want to expend excess energy and then not be able to respond to AC's attacks in the coming days in case it's a ruse. I think we'll see a great stage race that day, and we shall see if AC is as cooked as he would have it appear, or if he will drop AS and the ITT will become a moot point.
Either way I don't see any surprises from anyone else, those two will finish 1-2 in Paris.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

thesmokingman said:


> Where does he think he will crack Contador to gain the time he needs going into the TT?



Probably lots of places in the back of his mind. Riders are like that.

But I would guess by the way he rode today he hopes to jump on any weakness that shows up, then if there was no cracking by AC to that point, go for everything after the rest day. Sometimes riders just don't do well after a rest day in the middle of mountain stages. And looking at the riders, I don't see AC losing time with the form he has now. Not his greatest form, but he looks like he can hold anyone's wheel at least. So maybe AS thinks he needs to see cracks before he makes the attempt to break him?

Anyone know how the AC and AS do after rest days? Has either shown any weakness in such a situation? Because I have not even close to a clue.


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## Lazy Spinner (Aug 30, 2009)

AC doesn't look all that strong or confident compared to year's past. Was there something missing from his Tour preparations going in? Should he have injected, er, done some sort of special training prior to the race?

Ooops! Now I've gone and done it...


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## raymonda (Jan 31, 2007)

55x11 said:


> Another 30 seconds will not be enough. Contador will destroy Andy in ITT by at least 1.5-2 minutes. Schleck needs to attack. He is foolish for just sitting on Contador and covering his attacks. And Menchov (who is a great ITT as well) is getting closer - a few days like today and he may lose not just his top spot, but 2nd place as well.


Agreed! If Andy can TT with Contador........he is dirty. He needs to make a move in the mountains!!!!!


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## raymonda (Jan 31, 2007)

tinkerbeast said:


> if only TT'ing was that simple...


For Contador it is. For Andy it is not. He will lose at least 2 minutes and 45 seconds to Alberto in the TT, if he is lucky.


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## denversean (Jun 14, 2004)

I srsly want some of what half of these posters are smoking. Schleck has been pro for what - 3 years now? Andy didn't need the cobbles to be 2nd in this race. He and Contador are just about equal in climbing ability, and the next best contender is a long way off. Last year he was tasked with looking out for his brother in the beginning of the race. Does anyone not remember him practically coming to a stop on a couple of the early mtn stages to wait for Frank?

Let's just say that he is simply borrowing the Maillot Jaune this year and ends up finishing 2nd. If you include the Giro, he's been on the podium for 3 of the first 4 tours he's raced and this is the first year he's not a dom.

As for not attacking this stage, he said himself the climb didn't suit him. Considering that Contador couldn't drop him either, I would say he played it perfect tactically. I'm positive that we'll see more attacks when the gradient becomes more manageable in the next few stages and I guaranteee we'll see the two best riders in the tour this year distance themselves even further from the rest of the pack. He's a phenomenal talent and he's done the jersey proud thus far.

Nice work by Riblon today - it's been an amazing tour so far.


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## yater (Nov 30, 2006)

tober1 said:


> .
> Am I the only one that's really starting to like AS?


He's the new golden boy imo. The next week should be VERY entertaining. Andy will have to step it up and make some attacks stick if he wants to win this thing. I can't wait to see it.


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## rkgriffin (Jun 28, 2010)

I agree with the most part with denversean. Today's climb didn't suit Andy and he still did well not to get dropped. I think he will attack but he isn't going to announce it to everyone. He is going to pretend that he wants to just follow Alberto but then he will attack. I am sure he has a certain mountain picked out. It is just a shame Frank is out of the race. Frank could have paced him half way up the climb.

Now if he can drop Alberto is another thing... not sure he can so Andy better have the TT of his life.


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## thesmokingman (Dec 27, 2008)

rkgriffin said:


> I agree with the most part with denversean. Today's climb didn't suit Andy and he still did well not to get dropped. I think he will attack but he isn't going to announce it to everyone. He is going to pretend that he wants to just follow Alberto but then he will attack. I am sure he has a certain mountain picked out. It is just a shame Frank is out of the race. Frank could have paced him half way up the climb.
> 
> Now if he can drop Alberto is another thing... not sure he can so Andy better have the TT of his life.



Well yea Andy is gonna have to attack on some mountain at some point, otherwise where's the time gonna come from? Not going to announce it? He pretty much told Contador that he's attacking tomorrow, and that he felt good. What he really needs is for some of the other GC guys to attack Contador and soften him up like in Stage 8.

Maybe he could switch numbers with Sparticus later too... hehe.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

bill1109 said:


> What in the world is AS going all the way back to the team car for? That is a very dangerous thing to do...does he not think he can be attacked when doing that? Either he is saving something no one has ever seen for the Tourmalet or he is being a bit too confident...if Contador takes off while he's back at the team car the race is over. His time trialing ability while only 40 sec in front of Contador is another reason I'd think he'd show more caution. Oh well, interesting days ahead and it's fun to watch them. Still think Contador is just waiting for the right time...and if not he can just wait until the time trial.


I was puzzled by Andy going to the car and hanging so far back too. If I was Contador, I would attack right there - he wasn't going back due to mechanical, it wasn't in the middle of feed zone - he was going back for a chat - was he bored?
Attacking there was fair game. Ok, maybe I wouldn't do a full blown real attack, but one of those fake attacks just to teach him a lesson. Send Fuglsang or one of 7 or 8 Sorensens (no relations to each other) the Saxobank has on the team to the car next time, Andy. Rookie mistake.


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## yater (Nov 30, 2006)

55x11 said:


> I was puzzled by Andy going to the car and hanging so far back too. If I was Contador, I would attack right there - he wasn't going back due to mechanical.


The rest of the field didn't know that at the time. That's my best guess.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

55x11 said:


> Attacking there was fair game. Ok, maybe I wouldn't do a full blown real attack, but one of those fake attacks just to teach him a lesson. Send Fuglsang or one of 7 or 8 Sorensens (no relations to each other) the Saxobank has on the team to the car next time, Andy. Rookie mistake.


having Nicky bring the water would have had Andy sit on the roadside waiting 10 minutes...
Fuglsang was dropped and it was pretty clear Chris Anker was done for as well at that time. That's exactly Andy's problem, the team is not worth much as soon as they hit the mountains.


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## DrRoebuck (May 10, 2004)

I think Andy's waiting for the last big mountain day (read: mountaintop finish) to try an attack on Contador. Doesn't make sense do it any earlier and give Conti the chance to make the time back up before the TT.

I like both of these guys but it's hard not to root for AS.


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## DrRoebuck (May 10, 2004)

55x11 said:


> Schleck should ask Vaughters for advice - with his help Schleck can finish 4th on GC and 2nd on numerous stages.


That made me lol.


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## rydbyk (Feb 17, 2010)

I am rooting for Andy. I have no idea how it will all play out, but I can't wait to see more...getting really exciting IMO...:thumbsup:


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

Len J said:


> It appeared that today was about showing ac that he couldn't get away while not expending more energy than necessary. It also looked like Andy was never udder stress while ac looked under stress.
> 
> I think Andy is confident he can drop alberto in th coming days.
> 
> Len


I'd guess Andy will keep a very close eye on Contador's face and pedaling action, hoping to catch him on a bad day. Both riders are very nervous, hoping they are not the one to have the bad day.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

den bakker said:


> That's exactly Andy's problem, the team is not worth much as soon as they hit the mountains.


Yep, not without his brother there. Absent that abandonment, I am sure we would be seeing different tactics.


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