# TdF '15 Discus'n July 11 Stage 8 spoilers Rennes-Mur de Bretagne



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

TdF '15 Discus'n July 11 Stage 8 spoilers Rennes-Mur de Bretagne

This is a 110-mile ride with great scenery, a good amount of points on the road, and great opportuity for thrills and spills.

There is climb points halfway, on Col de Mont Belair, then sprint points soon aftre they make the descent back down from that col - this is a very interesting set-up and should be great to watch what happens. Please, guys, don't rub tired! Lots of opportunity for a breakaways.

There is an uphill finish in Mur-de Bretagne - the asecnt looks like about 15 meters elevation in a few kilometers, with significant turns, but they are uphill so they are different from the challenges posed by curvy finishes otherwise - once they plateau, the run-in look very straight and clear, although there is a modest descent then a modest uphill in the final hundreds of meters.

It will be interesting to see, with so muich opportunity on the road, how teams conserve energy for the TTT Sunday, the next day - you have to select your best time trialists and the margin for error is very small on the TTT.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Tejay takes this stage.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Skewer said:


> Tejay takes this stage.


-I see it - if the young scrapper wants a stage at all, this is a great day to go for it. He is hanging well thus far. I don't think Froome or Contador are willing to make a huge effort, on the eve of the TTT when they will definitely be needed, to cover TVG getting a minute or two on them.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*a preview of Mont Belair*

a preview of Mont Belair


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*stage profile*

stage profile


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*final 3 miles -*








The pic is the final KM.

this run-in looks interesting on google maps - there is an easy 10 miles straight run into the village of Mur-de Bretagne. Once in town, they have about 3.5 more miles to go.
They hook a right turn on the tight village road and head out of town for about a mile - slight descent to a stream crossing, then slight ascent. They crest that rise, and make a severe, nearly 180-degree left, then they have 1.5 mile of open two-lane country road, then a 90-degree right turn, and a mile of straight country road. This final 2.5 miles looks like generally modest ascent - almost a false flat. The very end is a bit more uphill.

Those zigs and zags can be used by a breakaway, or a solo rider off the front, to hold off the pack.

The sprinters will be salivating for this finish, but it will be hard to keep a lead-out team together across these final 4 miles. Anyone hoping for a win will have to reconnoiter, since the finish is not a typical in-the-village finish, but is 3 more miles or so down the road.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Rolling country side. Weather should be sunny with light breezes. My money would be on either Teejay or Uran for the stage. Teejay is 13 sec's behind Froome. Setting aside the sprint stage for Sagan, if he can win with at more than a 7 second lead over Froome, or any amount of time ahead of anyone else, he could take yellow.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Get out your cigars and light em up...Purito takes this stage!


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Well there's another rider you can drop from the list of contenders. From VeloNews:

_"FOUGRES, France (AFP) — Italian rider Luca Paolini has failed a doping test at the Tour de France, his Katusha team said Friday.

The 38-year-old tested positive for cocaine, which is not banned out of competition but is on the World Anti-Doping Agency’s list of banned substances in competition. ..."_​
Not that it mattered - Paolini was 168 in the GC, @ 46'41" behind.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

ibericb said:


> Well there's another rider you can drop from the list of contenders. From VeloNews:
> 
> _"FOUGRES, France (AFP) — Italian rider Luca Paolini has failed a doping test at the Tour de France, his Katusha team said Friday.
> 
> ...


makes no sense. he was not there for GC in the first place. of course it matters for rodriguez to miss a guy and of course it matters for the team concerning possible stage wins.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

This is the kind of thing Froome does right before he pounces on you and tried to rip your lungs out. 

Froome singles out van Garderen as GC threat - VeloNews.com

Don't believe the hype Tejya, watch your back and keep your guard up!!!!


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## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

Valverde territory? He can probably make it up the climb with the other "fab four" and having Quintana's presence will allow him to attack the flatter bits. Otherwise, he can easily out sprint the other GC guys.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Teejay is thinking stage 8 will be back to the mania of the previous stages this week.

_"Today was a bit calmer but in the last 50 km on these narrow roads, there were a little bit of nerves. Compared to the other days, it was pretty tranquil," he said.

"As for tomorrow, I think we did this stage back in 2011 and it was pretty hectic all day so I expect tomorrow to be more like what we had the rest of the week."_​
Hopefully no more of the group crashes we saw previously this week.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Valverde is a good pick. I think the uphill is nothing like Mur de Huy, so perhaps Sagan or Degenkolb, the strong-man sprinters, can have a good shot. Maybe even other classics men.

But Purito and Valverde are good picks as well. Still, for some reason i want Degenkolb to win one. Or Sagan. Sagan has been so close and so consistent.


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## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

55x11 said:


> Valverde is a good pick. I think the uphill is nothing like Mur de Huy, so perhaps Sagan or Degenkolb, the strong-man sprinters, can have a good shot. Maybe even other classics men.
> 
> But Purito and Valverde are good picks as well. Still, for some reason i want Degenkolb to win one. Or Sagan. Sagan has been so close and so consistent.


If anyone in the GC wants to test each other no way any of the sprinters (and I highly doubt Sagan) will be able to hold their pace up the climb. Seeing how Quintana and Nibali have lost time on the other contenders I think it's a plausible scenario.


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## joeinchi (Sep 24, 2010)

Rashadabd said:


> This is the kind of thing Froome does right before he pounces on you and tried to rip your lungs out.
> 
> Froome singles out van Garderen as GC threat - VeloNews.com
> 
> Don't believe the hype Tejay, watch your back and keep your guard up!!!!


^^^This

Froome will go for the early knock out. He's the real _Tourminator._ :devil:


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

This would be a good one for Valverde. Or Sagan.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

deviousalex said:


> . Seeing how Quintana and Nibali have lost time on the other contenders I think it's a plausible scenario.


Huh?

A tthe end of stage 2 Contador was in 12th place overall time, trailing 1' 00"; Nibali was 33rd, trailing 2' 09". After stage 7 Conti is 7th overall trailing 0' 36"; Nibali is12th trailing 1' 38".


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## jlandry (Jan 12, 2007)

ibericb said:


> Well there's another rider you can drop from the list of contenders. From VeloNews:
> 
> _"FOUGRES, France (AFP) — Italian rider Luca Paolini has failed a doping test at the Tour de France, his Katusha team said Friday.
> 
> ...


"What you get and what you see
Things that don't come easily
Feeling happy in my pain
Icicles within my brain...
cocaine"


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## rideorglide (Dec 3, 2005)

Big nostalgia stage for me -- two of my uncles and an Aunt live near Pontivy not too far from the finish.


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## rideorglide (Dec 3, 2005)

So a lot of time spent all over Brittany as a kid. 
Don't think I brought a bike over from England with me — and when I worked there, I was in my college-age years and either caught the bus to work, or walked everywhere, plus a ton of driving in OPs cars.
The small one-car width hedgerow lines interior roads were a freaky deal at night in the fog. Beep-beep.


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## rideorglide (Dec 3, 2005)

Next stage (12) maybe a Kleenex job ... lived in Vannes for a year in the early 80s, lots of good memories.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

this is cool with the entire peloton coming into the end together!


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

at 3 miles to go, griepel and cavendish dropped, come on Sagan, you can do it. Sagan in green, yellow, and white.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

froome got himself isolated


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## joeinchi (Sep 24, 2010)

Grrr ... Froome, Tejay and Sagan end with same time. Not a very satisfying finish. 

Nibbles lost a little. Where are AC and Nairo?


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

joeinchi said:


> Grrr ... Froome, Tejay and Sagan end with same time. Not a very satisfying finish.
> 
> Nibbles lost a little. Where are AC and Nairo?


contador was in the handful of ten guys right behind froome.

nibali was off the back of that group, and I think Quintana had dropped off the back a km before that.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

PJay said:


> contador was in the handful of ten guys right behind froome.
> 
> nibali was off the back of that group, and I think Quintana had dropped off the back a km before that.


Hey, at least Tekla-Polka-Dot kept his jersey


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## rideorglide (Dec 3, 2005)

Love the win for a former mountainbiker Vuillermoz
Happy for Sagan to take on the green jersey for all his work.
Glad Tejay keeps time in the GC.
Oh yes, and Teklapolkadot


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

joeinchi said:


> Grrr ... Froome, Tejay and Sagan end with same time. Not a very satisfying finish.
> 
> Nibbles lost a little. Where are AC and Nairo?


You must be talking Overall GC times?

Gap comapred to Froome:
2. Sagan +00' 11" (no change)
3. Van Garderen +00' 13" (no change)
4. Gallopin +00' "26" (no change)
5. Van Avermaet +00' 28" (no change)
6. Uran +00' 34" (no change)
7. Contador +00' 36" (no change)
.
.
.
13 Nibali +01' 48" (lost 10" overall)
.
.
.
16. Quintana +01' 56" (no change)

In the stage, behind Vuillermoz:
Sagan fnished 4th, Froome 8th, Teejay 10th, Contador 14th, Quintana 17th, all timed @ +00' 10"
Nibali 30th @ +00'20"


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Skewer said:


> at 3 miles to go, griepel and cavendish dropped, come on Sagan, you can do it. Sagan in green, yellow, and white.


Some? Sagan was in the group given 0' 10" off the lead. Greipel came in 130th, +6' 12" off the lead, and Cav was 163rd, +9 09" off. The only Etixx rider behnd Cav was his lead-out man, Renshaw with the stage same time.

In overall GC Cav dropped from 44th to 64th, Greipel dropped one position from 59th to 60th.


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## joeinchi (Sep 24, 2010)

ibericb said:


> You must be talking Overall GC times?
> 
> Gap comapred to Froome:
> 2. Sagan +00' 11" (no change)
> ...


Yes, overall GC. Was hoping for some movement, i.e. Froome extending his gap over his GC rivals. Nibbles was the one exception but hardly a knockout blow.

Perhaps they were saving a bit for the TTT. Froome/Sky actually lost time to BMC (0:35) and Astana (0:31) at last month's Dauphine, so they were probably very happy to maintain status quo w/ out extreme effort.


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## BacDoc (Aug 1, 2011)

Rooting for TJ and Sagan, both riding well and looking relaxed.

Think Alberto is watching and waiting, conserving energy and calculating his strategy. I really think he is the sharpest knife in the drawer and one of the best strategists of the GC riders.

This has been one if the best tours I've seen with lots more to come.


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## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

ibericb said:


> Huh?
> 
> A tthe end of stage 2 Contador was in 12th place overall time, trailing 1' 00"; Nibali was 33rd, trailing 2' 09". After stage 7 Conti is 7th overall trailing 0' 36"; Nibali is12th trailing 1' 38".


I'm not sure what you're saying here. What I was saying is that Nibali may have wanted to attack to make up for lost time on stage 2 where he lost time to Contador/Froome.

Anyways looks like Nibali is not in form and missing his top-end. I think he'll fall out of real contention once we hit the high mountains.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

deviousalex said:


> I'm not sure what you're saying here. What I was saying is that Nibali may have wanted to attack to make up for lost time on stage 2 where he lost time to Contador/Froome.
> 
> Anyways looks like Nibali is not in form and missing his top-end. I think he'll fall out of real contention once we hit the high mountains.


I wasn't sure what you were saying, so I guess we've about equally confused each other. 

True, Nibali's big loss was in the 2nd stage. He was 0' 43" back in the overall GC after the TT, and Conti was 0' 58" back, At the end of stage 2 Nibali trailed Conti by 1' 09". After yesterday Nibali trailed Conti by 1' 03". After today's poor showing in the stage he falls to 1' 12" behind Contador. There has hardly been much change since the 2nd stage. 

Nibli was not at all happy after today's stage, calling it " a bad day". Apparently Martinelli wasn't to pleased either. More here.

It will be interesting to see what happens next week once the mountains come into play.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

BacDoc said:


> Rooting for TJ and Sagan, both riding well and looking relaxed.
> 
> Think Alberto is watching and waiting, conserving energy and calculating his strategy. I really think he is the sharpest knife in the drawer and one of the best strategists of the GC riders.
> 
> This has been one if the best tours I've seen with lots more to come.


+1 - This. Conti is sitting back watching Froomie while Sagan is pulling on the Green Jersey so one third of Tinkoff's goal is in the bag. If Froomie falters in the slightest, Conti is going to fly up the road. Otherwise, Conti is just going to stay close, chipping away seconds here and there - then attacking in the last few mountain stages. It'll be interesting to see how the TTT sorts out and how Porte holds up.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Bummer for Dan Martin - looks like his timing was all wrong. Heard he was boxed in.


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

This Tour has been AWESOME! So much going on. And hey, is it just my perception... Sagan is basically racing by himself. He's using other teams, figuring things out on his own? Making his move on his own... Imagine if he had a team? Again, looking for feedback, but it looks like he is racing by himself against team efforts. If that IS the case, he's a badass.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

ibericb said:


> Some? Sagan was in the group given 0' 10" off the lead. Greipel came in 130th, +6' 12" off the lead, and Cav was 163rd, +9 09" off. The only Etixx rider behnd Cav was his lead-out man, Renshaw with the stage same time.
> 
> In overall GC Cav dropped from 44th to 64th, Greipel dropped one position from 59th to 60th.


You are pretty much on point. The team, including Sagan, is focused on winning yellow and the Giro-Tour Double with Contador. Sagan is expected to do his part to keep Contador safe, but once he is, he has the green light to contest sprints. He will have little help in doing so though. He's good and can manuver his way around bunches and slip into other team's trains without them knowing.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Yep, for Tinkoff it's been all about keeping Contador in position before the mountains begin next week. He's in a great spot. But so is Uran with Etixx.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Sagan is on the Contador team. His job is to be sure Conti is in the right position to go once they hit the mountains next week. This week has been the sprinter's week, where Sagan shines, and that ended today. In the previous 3 TdF's he finished with the green jersey, but his GC Time best was 42nd last year. He's not a winning climber in the mountains.


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## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

PBL450 said:


> Sagan is basically racing by himself.


So just like when he was on Cannondale then? 



ibericb said:


> Yep, for Tinkoff it's been all about keeping Contador in position before the mountains begin next week. He's in a great spot. But so is Uran with Etixx.


Uran won't have the support that Contador will with strong climbers on Tinkoff. Also, I just don't think he can beat Contador mano e mano either.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

deviousalex said:


> Uran won't have the support that Contador will with strong climbers on Tinkoff. Also, I just don't think he can beat Contador mano e mano either.


Probably right. But for now, he's in there and proabably the most real threat to Contador.


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## upstateSC-rider (Aug 21, 2004)

BacDoc said:


> Rooting for TJ and Sagan, both riding well and looking relaxed.
> 
> Think Alberto is watching and waiting, conserving energy and calculating his strategy. I really think he is the sharpest knife in the drawer and one of the best strategists of the GC riders.
> 
> This has been one if the best tours I've seen with lots more to come.


Sometimes I think the same of Conty but then other times he defies logic, like attacking during the Giro when he really didn't have to.
Either way he has panache and I'd rather see him win the robot-like Froome.

Not too worried about Nibali, they haven't tackled any big climbs yet.


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## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

ibericb said:


> Probably right. But for now, he's in there and proabably the most real threat to Contador.


More than Froome?


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

deviousalex said:


> More than Froome?


Once they're in the mountains, Froome is no threat to Contador.


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## BacDoc (Aug 1, 2011)

ibericb said:


> Once they're in the mountains, Froome is no threat to Contador.


Watch the last 2 stages of the Dauphine - Froome flew up those climbs like Lance hitting Alp Duez


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

BacDoc said:


> Watch the last 2 stages of the Dauphine - Froome flew up those climbs like Lance hitting Alp Duez


Had my head up my arse this morning, and was thinking Sagan not Froome. Not enough coffee or something. Yeah, you're right. In fact in 2013 when Froome took the TdF he bested Conti up Alp d'Huez placing 7th vs. Conti's 11th. Looking back, once Froome took yellow after stage 8, he kept it the rest of the race. There were two ITT's later in that race that winning both helped cement his position. He won't have that to play this year. It should be an interesting battle.


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