# Stage 5 Predictions and Chatter (may be spoilers)



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

LPR took it for the third straight day as DiLuca killed the competition, and Soler, with a powerfull hilltop sprint. Man, I wanted that crazy Soler to pull it out. He just went 50 meters too soon. Columbia's Lovkvist is in pink by 

Stage 3 was touted as the first "mountain" stage, but we all know today is the first leg breaker of the Giro. Word has it Simoni trains here, but many predict Basso will attempt to gain time here. Anyone know what the time bonuses are?

Short climb, big descent, big climb.









I though Soler would go today, but he tried yesterday. Cervelo took it easy yesterday, so I iwll pick Sastre to try. I don't think he has the right team, and it will probably be won by a mountain goat, but the heck with it.


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

i woudl like to see rogers make a move


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

I forgot to mention Garzelli in my thread. He's looking pretty good, right now.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

I think it will be Basso, maybe Di Luca if he can stay with Basso to the line.


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## bauerb (Jan 18, 2006)

why is cavendish taking pulls on the lead in to the final massive climb?


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Looks like Soler planning an attack.


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## gizzard (Oct 5, 2005)

LA to lose 45secs to 1 minute today - mechanical problem or not!


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## bigpinkt (Jul 20, 2006)

Basso


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## gizzard (Oct 5, 2005)

What's with LA's white bike? Is this his climbing bike or is there something wrong with the Jackson Pollock bike?


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## swuzzlebubble (Aug 4, 2008)

euro sport: http://www.justin.tv/ferrari_dragon


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

gizzard said:


> LA to lose 45secs to 1 minute today - mechanical problem or not!


If he's lucky? He looks under stress already and has drifted nearly to the back of the large bunch.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*Horner*

Looks and sounds like he is riding GC.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*Liqui Gas*

is gonna use up it's guys too early in the overall.


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## gizzard (Oct 5, 2005)

Dwayne Barry said:


> If he's lucky? He looks under stress already and has drifted nearly to the back of the large bunch.


Agreed. He's already riding like he's looking for parking. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, caboom! Goodnight sweet prince.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

Armstrong has popped at 6.6km to go.


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## swuzzlebubble (Aug 4, 2008)

LA attacking 
OTB!


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

gizzard said:


> Agreed. He's already riding like he's looking for parking. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, caboom! Goodnight sweet prince.


And he's done, looks more stressed than the 3 Astana riders who are staying back with him.

Garzelli and Cunego dropped, guys who won the Giro in the good old days can't even stay with top ~25 riders now.

Bruseghin in trouble too?


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

Cunego popped at 5.5km to go. Wiggins still with leaders but dropped off at 2km. Basso took over at 4km. DiLuca stayed with Basso, then Simoni popped. Levi stayed in 3rd spot and Horner still with Levi. At 3km Basso tried to pull off and everyone sat up. At 2km DiLuca took over and gave it back to Basso. Levi is looking smooth. Sastre who was off caught the leaders at 2km while they were looking at each other. Menchov in there the whole time followed Sastres final attack took the win with DiLuca on his wheel and DiLuca burned up in the sprint with Menchov. Simoni and Soler 46secs back. Cunego lost 2:39. LA and entourage lost 2:59. Basso lost time to Menchov and DiLuca and didn't see him in the top 10 for stage.


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

looks like it. and those liquigas boys look really good up front...


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

looks like Horner and Levi still in the lead group with 3km to go..


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## bigpinkt (Jul 20, 2006)

Horner looks very good. Everyone in that front group looks on the limit. 

This is not even a big stage, wait till they hit multiple passes in a day....going to be chaos


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

wiz525 said:


> looks like it. and those liquigas boys look really good up front...


As much I'd hate to see him win, Levi looks like he's having the easiest time of it in the front group?


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

Dwayne Barry said:


> As much I'd hate to see him win, Levi looks like he's having the easiest time of it in the front group?


yeah he does. He's been tucked away in there for a long time.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

Levi!!!!!


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Can you believe Horner was right there with the lead group?


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

I am impressed by Menchov and DiLuca.

But this is still an early stage


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## akrafty1 (Apr 10, 2006)

I like how Horner is riding! I hope he does well.

LGas looked like it was using old US Postal tactics today. I wonder if that will continue.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

jd3 said:


> Can you believe Horner was right there with the lead group?


yep.

Glad he was with LL. Now that LA lost like 3 minute, perhaps JB will go ahead and commit the rest of the team (including LA) to LL.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

Levi and Chris looked really good. Levi's form never showed any signs of fatigue. He just didn't do the final violent acceleration with Sastre, Menchov, and DiLuca. Of course DiLuca may pay for those two sprints in a row.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Levi is easily hanging on. Too bad he couldn't sprint and lost a few seconds. 

Armstrong said he wanted to be within 2 minutes. Guess he's not in as good a shape as r hoped. Or not. 

Horner was great. Popo cracked a little unfortunately. 

No real attacks but a fast, fast pace instead. 

Tomorrow should be good too. I think a successful break looks likely. Maybe Popo even. Hmm.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

from what i tread, the last 20k will be something to watch tonight. the last 8k will be incredible. lots of big names trying to hurt each other.

why the three asatna guys to shelter LA? were they all dropping back at the same time? if not, they must really trust horner to not crack. 
the past two years i have really been digging what horner can do. and he looks like hes having fun. he is great for on-the-road tactics. i think he won over LA when the radios went dead during ToC and he was the one who said they needed to get the metal out.
my favorite tale is of him riding the racer with the mechanical to the line.

my favorite part of today's CN write up was this:


> 16:07 CEST
> Carlos Sastre sitting up at the tail end of the single-file chasers and in front of a large group of favourites. He has Volodymir Gustov by his side.
> 
> *Up front, Voeckler has defied our prediction by attacking in reverse. Oh, but he notices the little red light on the TV camera and digs deep to get back up to the break*.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I think the three Astana guys were working with Lance because the lead group had gone out of their reach. Once the "heads of state" turn it up, the other guys on the team just can't keep up. Horner is a great teammate. Levi is looking pretty good.


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## wsriii (May 23, 2006)

I think Basso spent a bit too much time on the front at the end. Sastre was the interesting rider to me today. Came right up from the group to the front and then got things animated. It was a fun stage to watch.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

wsriii said:


> I think Basso spent a bit too much time on the front at the end. Sastre was the interesting rider to me today. Came right up from the group to the front and then got things animated. It was a fun stage to watch.


I noticed that about Basso, too. I think Levi is playing it smartest right now, keeping himself comfortably in the GC through the early stages to attack later. I would think that Basso burned himself a little too much today, but if he felt like he had the legs to push it today, then I guess he knows what he is doing better than me. 
Yeah, there were a lot more fireworks from Sastre than I expected today; fun race to watch.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

some hills tomorrow, but nothing too bad? following day sees a descent finish. basso has time to rest the next few days


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## KMan (Feb 3, 2004)

*rider*



thechriswebb said:


> I noticed that about Basso, too. I think Levi is playing it smartest right now, keeping himself comfortably in the GC through the early stages to attack later. I would think that Basso burned himself a little too much today, but if he felt like he had the legs to push it today, then I guess he knows what he is doing better than me.
> Yeah, there were a lot more fireworks from Sastre than I expected today; fun race to watch.


the strongest rider won't always win the CG, often it will be the smartest. Levi I think over the last two years has really up'd his game on the mental and tatical side. Not the most animated rider to watch by a long shot, but if he can be dull and win, I'm sure he'll take that anyday as would the rest of us. It's a 3 week race with some work early and late in the race which is not your typical tour set up. I think any of the final GC podium riders will be those that play their cards well early in the Giro. Staying in contention so as not to loose massive amounts of time, but still having enough in the final week to tackle some major climbing again.

Michael
www.MLKimages.com


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## bikesarethenewblack (Dec 30, 2008)

thechriswebb said:


> I think the three Astana guys were working with Lance because the lead group had gone out of their reach. Once the "heads of state" turn it up, the other guys on the team just can't keep up. Horner is a great teammate. Levi is looking pretty good.


Not so sure about this, more like the head of the astana state, read Armstrong, didn't ride - so they didn't ride. Their pace was dictated by what Armstrong could ride, not what anyone else was riding. 

Levi left with just Horner - that guy traded a lot for a little fame in silly little tour of california. Too bad, he could have had a chance with a real team.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

weltyed said:


> some hills tomorrow, but nothing too bad? following day sees a descent finish. basso has time to rest the next few days


The next hard stage is stage nine. More than enough time to rest.

We've seen the select group of climbers, the next big shakeup will likely be the TT. Not sure who I would bet on out of that group.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

weltyed said:


> some hills tomorrow, but nothing too bad? following day sees a descent finish. basso has time to rest the next few days



Another 5 days until the queen stage but 12 and 17 are the stages that will matter the most... maybe stage 21.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> Not so sure about this, more like the head of the astana state, read Armstrong, didn't ride - so they didn't ride. Their pace was dictated by what Armstrong could ride, not what anyone else was riding.
> 
> Levi left with just Horner - that guy traded a lot for a little fame in silly little tour of california. Too bad, he could have had a chance with a real team.


i agree with the first statement, but i think horner is probably happy where he is. he was so frustrated in europe the first time, im surprised he stuck with cycling. some are happy just working.
the world needs ditch diggers, too.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Basso is known as a good climber but one that keeps a high steady pace, he doesn't accelerates, then slow down then attack again, he apparently doesn't respond well to constant changes of pace. My guess is he didn't want too many attacks that he knew could put him in trouble so kept a high pace. Combined with easier days to come and not being too close to be in the pink jersey, he and his whole team will be able to rest in the next few days after spending so much energy. I think he did the right thing... and some doubted the strength of his team, I think they are managing the situation very well and will be fighting with Astana mostly. Now that Lance is way behind, Astana might stop wasting riders on him and focus on Levi like they should...


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

SilasCL said:


> The next hard stage is stage nine.



The crit in Milan? I think stage 10 is really the next extra hard stage.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

rocco said:


> The crit in Milan? I think stage 10 is really the next extra hard stage.


Whoops, stage 10 is what i meant. Thanks.


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

weltyed said:


> i agree with the first statement, but i think horner is probably happy where he is. he was so frustrated in europe the first time, im surprised he stuck with cycling. some are happy just working.
> the world needs ditch diggers, too.


I think he was referring to Levi. That if he had an entire team behind him he'd win a GT.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

jorgy said:


> I think he was referring to Levi. That if he had an entire team behind him he'd win a GT.


Did he mean literally behind him, as in pushing him up the hill?

Because that's the only way that sentence works for me.

Not a Levi hater, just a realist. He's really good but not a GT winner (so far).


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

Damn. Way to go Wiggins. I think he's inspired by being the anti-Cav as far as track riders are concerned...


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

Sojourneyman said:


> Damn. Way to go Wiggins. I think he's inspired by being the anti-Cav as far as track riders are concerned...



Good for Wiggo!! But in my opinion Garmin is in shambles. Wiggo and Farrar are the only 2 riding worth a poo. The other six appear to be just existing. 21st out of 22 in the team classification. Not good JV, not good.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

SilasCL said:


> Did he mean literally behind him, as in pushing him up the hill?
> 
> Because that's the only way that sentence works for me.
> 
> Not a Levi hater, just a realist. He's really good but not a GT winner (so far).



until the start of this giro I thought there would be no way Levi would ever win a GT. But there is something different about him this year. He seems to be racing with his head. And he has a strong team. Horner at the start, and others in the second week. Final week is the test. 

I also think Contadors absence has a lot to do with it. If Conti was there, there would be definite questions about leadership.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

jorgy said:


> I think he was referring to Levi. That if he had an entire team behind him he'd win a GT.


I think he was too.

Levi left Postal for exactly this reason. First with Rabobank to be their TdF contender, then to Gerolsteiner presumably to do the same. He didn't live up to anyone's expectations at either team (don't know what could be more of a "real" team then the 3 he's been on) and now that he's been riding with Discovery/Astana he's had the best results of his career and minus Lance and Lemond, among of the best stage race palmares of any American. Lance has spoiled you when you can't be proud of what Levi has accomplished.

I too thought it was strange that LA has 3 teammates around him. Losing just under 3 minutes means they didn't just sit up and usually when a team is serious about winning the GC they tell all dropped domestiques to ease off and just come in under the time cut so they can be more fresh for upcoming stages. LA could've ridden in @ 2:58 by himself, he didn't need their help.

Oh, and Horner's ride shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, he's been a stud since he turned pro with Nutra-Fig. Something tells me Cadel will be complaining really loudly about Silence-Lotto letting him sign with Astana.


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## bikesarethenewblack (Dec 30, 2008)

davidka said:


> minus Lance and Lemond, among of the best stage race palmares of any American. Lance has spoiled you when you can't be proud of what Levi has accomplished.
> 
> I too thought it was strange that LA has 3 teammates around him. Losing just under 3 minutes means they didn't just sit up and usually when a team is serious about winning the GC they tell all dropped domestiques to ease off and just come in under the time cut so they can be more fresh for upcoming stages. LA could've ridden in @ 2:58 by himself, he didn't need their help.


Yea, third best ever - not counting Tyler who owned the giro with a broken bones - or that stupid mountain bike racing kid name Floyd who won the tour. Let's not be so naive and say they did drugs and Levi didn't. 

So if the Astana guys were smart to hang back at three minutes, so too must have the Liquigas guys and the LPR guys, right?


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

bikesarethenewblack said:


> Yea, third best ever - not counting Tyler who owned the giro with a broken bones - or that stupid mountain bike racing kid name Floyd who won the tour. Let's not be so naive and say they did drugs and Levi didn't.


What about Hampsten? Only other American to win a GT.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

weltyed said:


> until the start of this giro I thought there would be no way Levi would ever win a GT. But there is something different about him this year. He seems to be racing with his head. And he has a strong team. Horner at the start, and others in the second week. Final week is the test.
> 
> I also think Contadors absence has a lot to do with it. If Conti was there, there would be definite questions about leadership.


I think the change in Levi started last year. In my opinion, he felt like he had a chance in the tour last year, and it kind of set him off when he didn't get to ride it. I remember last year that the normally docile Levi flipped out when he didn't get to ride in the TDF. Even Contador didn't seem that upset, and he is the one that usually pitches baby fits while Levi keeps quiet. When he showed back up in the Vuelta, he was a different animal. He dusted guys like Sastre and Valverde and finished such a close second to Contador that he almost wet himself (I still think he could have won). Either way, if Contador hadn't been there, Levi would have won that GT comfortably, and he has won every stage race that he has competed in since then. You can never know what will happen, but I think that Levi "having what it takes" to win a grand tour is not debatable.


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## bikesarethenewblack (Dec 30, 2008)

jorgy said:


> What about Hampsten? Only other American to win a GT.


No doubt - and to boot LeMond got fourth twice in Roubaix, but something tells me some of these people don't know that.


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