# Cuddles passing on Giro, can he win Le Tour ?



## jhamlin38 (Oct 29, 2005)

Since Contador will be riding the Giro, arguably the hardest edition in memory, will Evans have a legit shot at the top step of the podium? He looks good so far. 

Or, do you all think Contador will remain unstoppable this July, regardless of his efforts in May? 

The Giro has been and always will be my favorite GT. I'd like to see the pros all realize the route is the most challenging, and take it as the best race to win, regardless of the Tour's massive profile/exposure...


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

Cinelli 82220 said:


> Cuddles will never win the Tour.


This.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Cuddles will never win the Tour. 
I'd like to see him win, but he always has a bad day that ruins his chances.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

he might podium, but i doubt he will win. even if conti cant ride, i dont see him able to match andy on teh climbs. he can beat him on the descents and itt, but not the climbs. and that will be his undoing.

that is if andy can get find a killer instinct and stop worrying about his brother.

edit: vino has a better chance at winning than evans, and evans has a much better team.


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

Oh. You forgot to mention the part where he cries about said bad day. Weltyed is right; Vino has a better shot at it than Cuddles.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

If contador goes for the win in the Giro, he won't be winning the Tour. History is generally against him in that respect, and with the Giro's brutal route this year, it's a pretty unlikely year to do the double.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

Everyone should do the right thing and hand it to SPARTICAAAAAAAS!


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## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

If anything, I'd say the Giro is an attempt to contribute to Contador's TdF form.

But <3 Cuddles.


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

Ventruck said:


> But <3 Cuddles.


What. Do you have an Elf fetish?


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Man but just consider the possibilities... the Giro is a dangerous race, big names crash every year... if Alberto breaks a c-bone or even just tweaks his knee or gets some bad road rash, that could throw the Tour wide open. 

I think Evans could seriously give the Schlecks a run for it in that case.


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## Lazy Spinner (Aug 30, 2009)

If Evans can stay within striking distance on the climbs then he can gain serious time in the ITT. That said, I'd still put my money on Andy Schleck.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Too inconsistent, unfortunately. Wont be able to respond to series of attacks that will take place, Bert in attendance or not.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

jhamlin38 said:


> Since Contador will be riding the Giro, arguably the hardest edition in memory, will Evans have a legit shot at the top step of the podium? He looks good so far.
> 
> Or, do you all think Contador will remain unstoppable this July, regardless of his efforts in May?
> 
> The Giro has been and always will be my favorite GT. I'd like to see the pros all realize the route is the most challenging, and take it as the best race to win, regardless of the Tour's massive profile/exposure...


hell no.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

i do agree that riding the giro is probably to build form. but what if its not? could he be racing the giro because there is a possibility he wont be allowed to ride the tour? it seems most suspensions come around the tour, not the giro.


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## zacolnago (Feb 15, 2006)

I hope Evans takes it this year. The Schlecks, and this is my personal opinion, are a bit of an embarrassment to cyclists and need to man up a bit. Cipo was correct when he proclaimed his disgust at how "soft" cycling has become. 

Thank goodness for Gilbert and Spartacus keeping the flag flying for the tough men of cycling, and Evans didn't do too badly in his rainbow jersey year which he honoured with great pride,


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

weltyed said:


> i do agree that riding the giro is probably to build form. but what if its not? could he be racing the giro because there is a possibility he wont be allowed to ride the tour? it seems most suspensions come around the tour, not the giro.


Hard to say, but I think it's a possibility, especially since they haven't made a final decision regarding last year. He'll probably be allowed to race the Vuelta, since it's his home country.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

zacolnago said:


> I hope Evans takes it this year. The Schlecks, and this is my personal opinion, are a bit of an embarrassment to cyclists and need to man up a bit. Cipo was correct when he proclaimed his disgust at how "soft" cycling has become.
> 
> Thank goodness for Gilbert and Spartacus keeping the flag flying for the tough men of cycling, and Evans didn't do too badly in his rainbow jersey year which he honoured with great pride,


Cipo likes to talk. He might think the Schlecks are soft, but they excel in the area where he was well known for hopping off his bike.


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## orange_julius (Jan 24, 2003)

spade2you said:


> Cipo likes to talk. He might think the Schlecks are soft, but they excel in the area where he was well known for hopping off his bike.


Cipo's caveman-like exterior hides a caveman-like interior. But I think it's unfair what you said about Cipo. He almost always finishes the Giro d'Italia, in the years when they had more brutal climbs than the Tour de France, to take home the Ciclamina. He knew he couldn't finish two grand tours a year in reasonably good shape, so he chose his home tour. Although I have to hand it to Robbie McEwen and his wheelies.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

orange_julius said:


> Cipo's caveman-like exterior hides a caveman-like interior. But I think it's unfair what you said about Cipo. He almost always finishes the Giro d'Italia, in the years when they had more brutal climbs than the Tour de France, to take home the Ciclamina. He knew he couldn't finish two grand tours a year in reasonably good shape, so he chose his home tour. Although I have to hand it to Robbie McEwen and his wheelies.


and how many times did cipo promise that this year he would finish the tour only to head back home? if he knew he could not finish two he might have considered only starting one.

edit/ several of those years the giro had a fairly weak lineup as well, the tour was ridden much harder.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

zacolnago said:


> I hope Evans takes it this year. The Schlecks, and this is my personal opinion, are a bit of an embarrassment to cyclists and need to man up a bit. Cipo was correct when he proclaimed his disgust at how "soft" cycling has become.
> 
> Thank goodness for Gilbert and Spartacus keeping the flag flying for the tough men of cycling, and Evans didn't do too badly in his rainbow jersey year which he honoured with great pride,


wait, how is it that Schlecks are embarrassment to cyclist? What precisely makes Andy Schleck less of a man? Skinny legs?

Evans lovers need to remember that he always bonks at some point in late stages. Evans' best chance to win the Tour was when Carlos rode away solo and Evans was outwitted by none other than... wait for it.... Andy and Frank Schlecks - those soft men of cycling.

Last year in Giro we seem to remember that Evans was strong on Zoncolan and other climbs but we forget that he finished off-podium. In 2009 Vuelta he was third, even though he could have won.

Now it's 2011 and he is not getting any younger - and there is plenty of young riders who will be ahead of Evans at the tour. He would be lucky to podium.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

Nahhh! You guys are all wrong.

This is the year Sastre does the Giro-Tour double.
First he wins in Italy and then his team gets invited to the tour last minute, to replace Saxo, for reasons we dare not speak about in this forum and hands Saxo 2.0/Leopard their candy a$$ses back to them for not fully supporting him in the past.
Just you wait and see.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

55x11 said:


> In 2009 Vuelta he was third, even though he could have won.


To be fair, had he not lost about 50 seconds to a botched rear wheel change, he would have been a hell of a lot closer.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

weltyed said:


> i do agree that riding the giro is probably to build form. but what if its not? could he be racing the giro because there is a possibility he wont be allowed to ride the tour? it seems most suspensions come around the tour, not the giro.


Thats my thoughts too.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

weltyed said:


> edit: vino has a better chance at winning than evans, and evans has a much better team.


I don't see that BMC has a stronger team for the TdF than Astana, especially in the mountains. Not that I think Vino has any chance at all.


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

Yea. I was thinking as I watched the Tour of Romandie and seeing Evans wearing the yellow that he best enjoy it because it's likely the only yellow he'll wear.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

robdamanii said:


> To be fair, had he not lost about 50 seconds to a botched rear wheel change, he would have been a hell of a lot closer.


It was also won by a guy who shouldn't have been allowed to race in the first place.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

IF Contador races the Tour, he'll be the favorite as he's the only GC favorite to climb and TT well. I would then put Andy, Cadel and Basso as slightly less favorites that could all win if Contador as a problem... but I think Cadel can win as much as Andy can.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

55x11 said:


> wait, how is it that Schlecks are embarrassment to cyclist? What precisely makes Andy Schleck less of a man? Skinny legs?


without getting into alleged "help" the schlecks may have taken part, what makes the schlecks seem weak is what at first made them seem great: they used to ride as their own mini-team. now, however, that is a weakness. neither seem bite down for a win. and andy is preoccuppied with making sure frank is there.

and the track stands on the climbs last year were ridiculous. you may not be able to beat contador, but at least give it a try.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

orange_julius said:


> Cipo's caveman-like exterior hides a caveman-like interior. But I think it's unfair what you said about Cipo. He almost always finishes the Giro d'Italia, in the years when they had more brutal climbs than the Tour de France, to take home the Ciclamina. He knew he couldn't finish two grand tours a year in reasonably good shape, so he chose his home tour. Although I have to hand it to Robbie McEwen and his wheelies.


How is it unfair? He's the one that called the Schlecks soft. If he abandoned on the last week or didn't make the elimination time, I'd give him that. The guy simply gave up on the first climb of every TdF. As for the Giro, I'm not seeing the amount of completed, but if memory serves me, it was ~50% of the time.


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## rogger (Aug 19, 2005)

"Cuddles" as in "cuddles his own"? I doubt he will be beating others.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

weltyed said:


> without getting into alleged "help" the schlecks may have taken part, what makes the schlecks seem weak is what at first made them seem great: they used to ride as their own mini-team. now, however, that is a weakness. neither seem bite down for a win. and andy is preoccuppied with making sure frank is there.
> 
> and the track stands on the climbs last year were ridiculous. you may not be able to beat contador, but at least give it a try.


DISAGREE.
He (Andy) gave it his best shot. He came very close to beating Contador - closer than anyone else has come in years. Closer than Evans, Wiggo, Menchov, Armstrong, Basso or anyone else. Trackstands were not ridiculous, they were strategic. Did you want Andy tow Contador to the finish line? This was one way to isolate him. It didn't work, but it has solid logic behind it.
Andy is clearly not as strong as Contador in ITTs, even though he did get pretty close to challenging him in the final ITT last year, but he is just as strong (if not slightly stronger) in the mountains. He attacked again and again on Tourmalet, but there is only so much one can do. This was all without Frank who crashed out and was his biggest support. Frank is a better domestique on the steep climbs than any teammate he could ever find. In 2009 it was only Frank and Conti who could follow, once Klodi, Armstrong, Wiggo and others were dropped.

You can't blame Andy for trying his best and being second best. Sometimes we all get beaten by riders stronger than us, nothing you can do.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Kram said:


> Yea. I was thinking as I watched the Tour of Romandie and seeing Evans wearing the yellow that he best enjoy it because it's likely the only yellow he'll wear.


But he won that yellow just coming off an injury to one of his quads. He's more aggressive than he used to be - has the best team around him in years. Aside from a few glitches, his build up is going well. I'd be surprised if he doesn't podium.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

I am still holding out hope for LL


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

the most embarrasing moment I have seen in cycling in my whole life was to see Andy Schleckette and Clenbutador riding hand in hand and then Conti caressing Andy's cheek.

Fully agree with Cipo, today's cycling is dominated by effette alfeñiques

Cuddles, Motorcus and Gilbert FTW


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

55x11 said:


> DISAGREE.
> He (Andy) gave it his best shot. He came very close to beating Contador - closer than anyone else has come in years. Closer than Evans, ....


thats not what the official stopwatch says

2007: Alberto Contador (ESP) bt Cadel Evans (AUS) by 23sec
2010: Alberto Contador (ESP) bt Andy Schleck (LUX) by 39sec


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

yurl said:


> thats not what the official stopwatch says
> 
> 2007: Alberto Contador (ESP) bt Cadel Evans (AUS) by 23sec
> 2010: Alberto Contador (ESP) bt Andy Schleck (LUX) by 39sec


well that's a useful metric. 
by that logic Offredo was really really close at winning milano san remo this year.


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

at least its a scientific measurement. more valid than a woulda coulda shoulda chain slip.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

yurl said:


> at least its a scientific measurement. more valid than a woulda coulda shoulda chain slip.


Chaingate had nothing to do with his loss. He gave Contador that much time day 1. Everyone seems to overlook the fact he gave 40+ seconds in the prolouge. You don't give up that much time in a short ITT if you are serious about winning.


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## zacolnago (Feb 15, 2006)

Salsa_Lover said:


> the most embarrasing moment I have seen in cycling in my whole life was to see Andy Schleckette and Clenbutador riding hand in hand and then Conti caressing Andy's cheek.


Thanks for the reminder. I think I feel a bit ill now. Can you imagine Cipo and Zabel caressing one another after a close sprint finish.


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## zacolnago (Feb 15, 2006)

spade2you said:


> It was also won by a guy who shouldn't have been allowed to race in the first place.


And the Spaniards pulled a really fast one on Cadel when he punctured, which pretty much cost him the race.


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## PlatyPius (Feb 1, 2009)

This is the year Jens Voigt takes charge and wins everything.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

zacolnago said:


> And the Spaniards pulled a really fast one on Cadel when he punctured, which pretty much cost him the race.


Exactly. Without Valverde and that untimely puncture, he should have easily won that one. His team support was also pretty modest. I really felt bad for him.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

If Conti is in it, he wins it. Simple.

Andy an easy number 2.
The race is for the third podium spot - Evans or Basso are my best bets at this time,
but I've been surprized before!


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

LostViking said:


> If Conti is in it, he wins it. Simple.
> 
> Andy an easy number 2.
> The race is for the third podium spot - Evans or Basso are my best bets at this time,
> but I've been surprized before!


I don't think it's _that_ simple. At the moment, he's not sure if he'll be allowed to ride The Tour, so he may have to go for it in the Giro. If you recall last year, Basso finished in the autobus at the 2010 tour due to fatigue from the Giro.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

spade2you said:


> I don't think it's _that_ simple. At the moment, he's not sure if he'll be allowed to ride The Tour, so he may have to go for it in the Giro. If you recall last year, Basso finished in the autobus at the 2010 tour due to fatigue from the Giro.


32, less than 1 hour after Contador is the new autobus?


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

den bakker said:


> 32, less than 1 hour after Contador is the new autobus?


Phil and Paul commented that he had to finish in the autobus one day in the mountains, which they also mentioned was the first time he had ever done that.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

spade2you said:


> Phil and Paul commented that he had to finish in the autobus one day in the mountains, which they also mentioned was the first time he had ever done that.


plus i dont basso is riding the giro this year, right? crazy to not defend the title, but shows he is shooting for le tour. if conti is not in the tour, it will be a pretty good one. andy, basso, evans, vino (at least breakaways, and im sure he will put in some digs until the longer itt), to name just three. armstrong will wish he stuck with racing.

will geox be there? menchov could be part of it.

are there time bonuses this year?


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

weltyed said:


> plus i dont basso is riding the giro this year, right? crazy to not defend the title, but shows he is shooting for le tour. if conti is not in the tour, it will be a pretty good one. andy, basso, evans, vino (at least breakaways, and im sure he will put in some digs until the longer itt), to name just three. armstrong will wish he stuck with racing.
> 
> will geox be there? menchov could be part of it.
> 
> are there time bonuses this year?


Basso isn't doing the Giro, but it was the 2010 Giro effort that had him a little tired for The Tour. 

Geox will be there. I think Sastre and Menchov will have to go for it at the Giro. I'm not sure if they'll be guaranteed a slot in the Tour since Geox hasn't really done much so far. 

I think there are time bonuses, but not 100% certain. We'll find out soon enough.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

@Spade - I see your point, but "the double" has been done before and I suspect if anyone is capable of pulling it off, Conti could be that guy. 
Also, we are assuming that Conti will win the Giro if he is in it - maybe not. Like Andy, he probably sees the Tour as the one he most "needs" to win.
So the question: Conti has already said he thinks this will be the toughest Giro he has ever ridden - will he risk burning himself out to win the Giro if it means he can't win the Tour? I suspect he will let the Giro go before sacrificing his chance to win this year's Tour.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Contador won't allow himself to lose. He will turn himself inside out to win the Giro, and he'll not be thinking just how much it will take out of him.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

LostViking said:


> @Spade - I see your point, but "the double" has been done before and I suspect if anyone is capable of pulling it off, Conti could be that guy.


The double hasn't been done since '98 and there's a good chance the last doubles weren't done under 100% clean circumstances. I don't just mean Pantani. 

I don't think today's Contador can pull off the double. A few years ago, maybe. This year, probably not.


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## Gnarly 928 (Nov 19, 2005)

What is the more relevant question is which riders are going to be suspended or declared under investigation as a result of the Giro and therefore excluded from the Tour.

Somehow, there always seems to be a convenient scandal that gathers lots of press attention to cycling just in time for the Tour...Is this an 'every year' marketing ploy now?

I'm rooting for Schleks. "Schlecks on Treks"...are those good bikes?


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## brblue (Jan 28, 2003)

*A tour with less traditional climbing, maybe*

Adding my 2c:

Last couple of years it seems to me evans has become a more punchy rider and lost somewhat in his climbing ability.

It shows in the first moutain stage of 2010 tdf when he is just about to lose contact with the lead climbers and then rejoins on the flat part towards the finish.
he wins the 2010 fleche on the sprint on the false flat towards the finish, while on the climb, contador + leaders had > 1 bike length advantage and evans looked like losing it
he is dropped by sanchez on the legendary climb of the vuelta, whe

I see him having the same abilities as vino - regarding attacks & such, the second strongest tt rider from the "usual" GT contenders (he could beat contador if the latter has a less-than-stellar day), for sure the best sprinter of them, but to the same extent, the second bad climber (i see only vino as a worse climber than evans).

That said, i think he could win a less mountaineous tdf , with more tts, and few stages finishing with a long climb.
With his current rider profile, he could gain time in a short mountain tt, or on a stage that finishes in a short climb where he'd have to sprint against the other contenders.

For entertainment's sake, I think a more sprinting and less climbing evans is better, thoug i'd prefer him doing all. Otoh i prefer him having weaknesses and doping-related trouble..

good luck
br.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

*A loose Pistolero?*



robdamanii said:


> Contador won't allow himself to lose. He will turn himself inside out to win the Giro, and he'll not be thinking just how much it will take out of him.


Perhaps you are right. Wonder if Riis has any more control over Conti than Johan did?
If Conti can't turn on the brakes by himself, will Riis be able to hold him back and save himself for the Tour?
Conti - during the Astana Tour dabacle - demonstrated that he is willing to go it alone.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

LostViking said:


> Perhaps you are right. Wonder if Riis has any more control over Conti than Johan did?
> If Conti can't turn on the brakes by himself, will Riis be able to hold him back and save himself for the Tour?
> Conti - during the Astana Tour dabacle - demonstrated that he is willing to go it alone.


I'm not sure anyone can reach him. He really has this mentality of "if I don't like what johann/bjarne/whoever says, I'll do what I like" and that could really hurt him at this point.

He's in a tough spot though. The CAS has been cracking down hard on dope (judging by the bio-passport cases) so he's probably sweating bullets that he'll not be riding le Tour. So he'll go for the win in the Giro to make up for the possibility of not riding the tour (although if I understand the suspension correctly, he'd lose all racing results from during the suspension, so the Giro win would be erased.) So, imagine he wins the Giro, and is somehow cleared by CAS to race the tour. Now he's burned out from the Giro and finishes 35th at the Tour. 

Could be a very real possibility.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

spade2you said:


> Basso isn't doing the Giro, but it was the 2010 Giro effort that had him a little tired for The Tour.
> 
> Geox will be there. I think Sastre and Menchov will have to go for it at the Giro. I'm not sure if they'll be guaranteed a slot in the Tour since Geox hasn't really done much so far.
> 
> I think there are time bonuses, but not 100% certain. We'll find out soon enough.


I thought Geox WILL NOT be in the Tour for sure.

Even without Contador (and it looks more likely that he may race the Tour after all?) the Tour will have plenty of strong contenders: Andy Schleck would be clear favorite with Basso a strong favorite too. But many youngsters - Gesink, Kreuziger, Martin, Brajkovic, Van Den Broeck, Porte, maybe Hesjedal, etc. will step up at some point. Nibali is certainly super-strong candidate out of that young group but I think he is not doing TdF or if he does it, it will be in support of Basso. 

Evans is closer groupped with a radioshack trio of Kloden, Leipheimer and Horner - old timers past their prime who can still deliver the goods. But I like Kloden out of that "old geezers" group - he is on top form this spring at least and if he climbs like he did in 2009 he can be a serious threat. Evans had a more up/down spring so far, and he didn't have a good season last year, at least as far as grand tours are concerned.

Another, perhaps more interesting question is what happens at the Giro.


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## claphands (Apr 24, 2009)

MG537 said:


> Nahhh! You guys are all wrong.
> 
> This is the year Sastre does the Giro-Tour double.
> First he wins in Italy and then his team gets invited to the tour last minute, to replace Saxo, for reasons we dare not speak about in this forum and hands Saxo 2.0/Leopard their candy a$$ses back to them for not fully supporting him in the past.
> Just you wait and see.


+1 I'll along with this. I've always liked Carlos. Might as well add the Vuelta too.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Contadoper ain't winning Jack Schit now that he's under the microscope. Bad beef ain't gonna cut it this time and without that 3rd week transfusion he's going to suffer and TT as he's supposed too, like crap.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

OnTheRivet said:


> Contadoper ain't winning Jack Schit now that he's under the microscope.


as shown by his season so far


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

brblue said:


> Adding my 2c:
> 
> That said, i think he could win a less mountaineous tdf , with more tts, and few stages finishing with a long climb.
> With his current rider profile, he could gain time in a short mountain tt, or on a stage that finishes in a short climb where he'd have to sprint against the other contenders.


Also, bring back time bonuses. Makes the riders work hard and attack in the finishing straight because those few extra seconds can make every difference. GC riders who have superior sprinting talent get the award they rightly deserve.

Unlike the tour, where you have all this "gifting" of stages nonsense.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

moabbiker said:


> Also, bring back time bonuses. Makes the riders work hard and attack in the finishing straight because those few extra seconds can make every difference. GC riders who have superior sprinting talent get the award they rightly deserve.
> 
> Unlike the tour, where you have all this "gifting" of stages nonsense.


I think that bonus points are appropriate for shorter stage races (especially one week races) because they do animate the end of the race more than otherwise. My concern with points in GTs is that it would just encourage the use of illegal substances - since GC contenders can't just stay in the slipstream for all but a couple of important stages. They would have to fight it out for all but the sprinters stages and thus have a tougher time recovering.


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