# ToC - who will win it?



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

I must say, of entire 2015, today's stage was a HUGE surprise. Sagan climbing with the best climbers (basically), conceding just 47 seconds.
Can he get 2 seconds back on time bonuses? Cavendish will be sprinting in intermediate sprint, something he almost never does, to protect the jersey. 
Alaphilippe is a revelation of 2015 season, and a new hope for French cycling.


----------



## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

Did Cav say he will be riding in the breakaway? I'm assuming a break will go unless Tinkoff really tries to control it (and potentially burn all their matches and screw up the leadout for Sagan) and will sweep up the intermediate points/time bonuses.

I'm thinking Sagan will probably take yellow coming in 2nd or 3rd in the final sprint. I do wonder if Ettix will pull something super sneaky and try to get Sagan onto their leadout train and not actually sprint or open it up super super early.


----------



## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

Regardless of today's outcome, I think Sagan has shut up the critics (like Tinkov!). His form has been great all spring. It wasn't because he lacked form, motivation, or some psychological issue. All his 2nd, 3rd, and 4ths this spring showed he was always in the mix. He wasn't 'missing' anything-others just rose to his level.


----------



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

Sagan will grab some time Bonuses and take it.


----------



## BacDoc (Aug 1, 2011)

Jwiffle said:


> Regardless of today's outcome, I think Sagan has shut up the critics (like Tinkov!). His form has been great all spring. It wasn't because he lacked form, motivation, or some psychological issue. All his 2nd, 3rd, and 4ths this spring showed he was always in the mix. He wasn't 'missing' anything-others just rose to his level.


Absolutely! Sagan is riding like a champion, amazing pace in the time trial and his effort on Mt. baldy was the definition of heart. No one can say he didn't put in a super effort and the video of him after that climb almost had me puking!

This has been a great race and what a treat to hear Jens Voight doing some commentary. Final stage should be exciting for sure.


----------



## AlanE (Jan 22, 2002)

BacDoc said:


> Absolutely! Sagan is riding like a champion, amazing pace in the time trial and his effort on Mt. baldy was the definition of heart. No one can say he didn't put in a super effort and the video of him after that climb almost had me puking!
> 
> This has been a great race and what a treat to hear Jens Voight doing some commentary. Final stage should be exciting for sure.


Perhaps it's time to refer to Sagan as an "all-around" rider rather than just a sprinter. He's showing what he can do when he's motivated. And he's still pretty young - only 25. Maybe there's a grand tour victory in his future (time bonuses would help)

As for Jens Voight commentary, yes, he always makes me smile. But Christian VandeVeld is pretty bad - he's always tripping over his own words.


----------



## robt57 (Jul 23, 2011)

AlanE said:


> Perhaps it's time to refer to Sagan as an "all-around" rider rather than just a sprinter.


Not ever a sprinter, lack of lead out team in each team he has been on??

Just because he has beat Cav when his lead out ducks don't get in a row does not mean he is a sprinter.

Watching him yesterday on Baldy a I was so reminded of Jan Ulrich to a large degree. 

I hope he stays an all rounded now that he is really settling into his career and getting the big bucks. One of my favs in the Peloton...


----------



## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

robt57 said:


> Not ever a sprinter, lack of lead out team in each team he has been on??
> 
> Just because he has beat Cav when his lead out ducks don't get in a row does not mean he is a sprinter.
> 
> ...


may I suggest a closer look of the first years Sagan was a pro.....


----------



## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

i want sagan to be rewarded for an epic ride. tinkoff have a strong team, and should be able to control the race.


----------



## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

Can a race for overall be any closer?!


----------



## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

^no^ ..and lolz at tyler farrar almost being relevant, albeit in a somewhat perverse manner.


----------



## radripperaj (Mar 7, 2015)

Wow that race was AMAZING! I wanted Sagan to win so bad after watching his effort on Baldy. I have never been this excited and on the edge of my seat watching a race, so Awesome!


----------



## robt57 (Jul 23, 2011)

radripperaj said:


> Wow that race was AMAZING! I wanted Sagan to win so bad after watching his effort on Baldy. I have never been this excited and on the edge of my seat watching a race, so Awesome!



Yeah baby, great race and finish. Nothing like winning by a 2x4 width. Or as my OZ budz would say, a 4x2... 

Maybe Oleg Tinkov will shut down the public rhetoric, a stupid strategy one could argue to use on passive aggressive testosterone laden athletes. 


Gonna watching for this kid in the future too. Julian Alaphilippe looks to have a lot of heart.


----------



## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

Bar none the best week-long stage race I've ever seen.


----------



## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

robt57 said:


> Maybe Oleg Tinkov will shut down the public rhetoric, a stupid strategy one could argue to use on passive aggressive testosterone laden athletes.


Wishful thinking. This is validation that his negative reinforcement strategy works. I hear these days Tinkov himself is the one yelling orders from the team car. I bet this is going to make everyone super jolly during the 3rd week of the tour when he's yelling insane strategies for Sagan to win green and Contador yellow.


----------



## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

robt57 said:


> Yeah baby, great race and finish. Nothing like winning by a 2x4 width. Or as my OZ budz would say, a 4x2...
> 
> Maybe Oleg Tinkov will shut down the public rhetoric, a stupid strategy one could argue to use on passive aggressive testosterone laden athletes.


why? the goal was a monument not some HC stage race.


----------



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

in all fairness, it was mostly THE media and the fans that were down on Sagan all spring. He was ALWAYS in the mix in the spring classics, but that's never enough. So the media published stories with headlines that implied that Sagan is done, he is overrated, overpaid and his star powers are on decline, stick a fork in him, what a disaster.

Yeah, Tinkoff said some things to the press but he says all kinds of crazy things to the press and if you ask me, most of them are calculated to keep his name and the name of his team in the news cycle. 

Is there any doubt that Sagan *will* win the monument in the few coming years? Who wants to take that bet?


----------



## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

55x11 said:


> in all fairness, it was mostly THE media and the fans that were down on Sagan all spring. He was ALWAYS in the mix in the spring classics, but that's never enough. So the media published stories with headlines that implied that Sagan is done, he is overrated, overpaid and his star powers are on decline, stick a fork in him, what a disaster.
> Is there any doubt that Sagan *will* win the monument in the few coming years? Who wants to take that bet?


correct, when you are up and coming with podiums in the previous years, being "in the mix" does not cut it. 
what does it matter if he wins in years to come if you sponsor him now? 
besides media, fans and team owner. who else is there to be down on him? I sincerely doubt he found it fun to run out of steam with 10km to go several times. 
It seems pretty clear now that his peak was just badly timed. at least he got a little out of it.


----------



## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Hiro11 said:


> Bar none the best week-long stage race I've ever seen.


Well, it was certainly a good last three stages. Sagan raced three great days, and really laid it on the line on Mt. Baldy. Julian Alaphilippe reinforced that he definitely has the class implied by his Spring campaign. 



55x11 said:


> Is there any doubt that Sagan *will* win the monument in the few coming years? Who wants to take that bet?


No thanks!


----------



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

Sagan should get a monument or 2, Fabian and Tommeke are coming to the ends of their careers
but still harder to win a monument to a week long tour
He's taken Ghent Wevelgem, Brabanste Pijl and Harelbeke so he is on the right track

as for the start of his career he did win 2 short stage races early on


----------



## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Hiro11 said:


> Bar none the best week-long stage race I've ever seen.


A seven day stage race with a prologue TT length ITT, four stages won by Cav, and the "queen stage" so difficult an non-climber can only lose a few seconds. Race was won by a field sprint in a criterium style finish. I can think of a few races that are a little more exciting to watch. When your mountain stage is so easy that a classics rider who cooked himself the day before still competes in the finish, you might want to dial it up a few notches in difficulty.


----------



## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

spookyload said:


> A seven day stage race with a prologue TT length ITT, four stages won by Cav, and the "queen stage" so difficult an non-climber can only lose a few seconds. Race was won by a field sprint in a criterium style finish. I can think of a few races that are a little more exciting to watch. When your mountain stage is so easy that a classics rider who cooked himself the day before still competes in the finish, you might want to dial it up a few notches in difficulty.


that climb was so easy that all those great climbers got dropped by a calssics rider. it wasn't the climb, but the man who climbed it.


----------



## Donn12 (Apr 10, 2012)

The best race I have seen. I was really pulling for Sagan


----------



## looigi (Nov 24, 2010)

dnice said:


> that climb was so easy that all those great climbers got dropped by a calssics rider. it wasn't the climb, but the man who climbed it.


+1...if you mean what I think you mean.


----------



## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

What a great race! I was rooting hard for Alaphillipe and he came within a few cm! He is going to be involved in some great racing! Sagan did a great job and had well played help. His TT was great... Maybe he's growing from mountain biker to sprinter to solid stage racer? Maybe... 

TofC couldn't have done better.


----------



## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

looigi said:


> +1...if you mean what I think you mean.


i do, and thanks.


----------



## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

spookyload said:


> A seven day stage race with a prologue TT length ITT, four stages won by Cav, and the "queen stage" so difficult an non-climber can only lose a few seconds. Race was won by a field sprint in a criterium style finish. I can think of a few races that are a little more exciting to watch. When your mountain stage is so easy that a classics rider who cooked himself the day before still competes in the finish, you might want to dial it up a few notches in difficulty.


first time I've heard ten dam, gesink and zubeldia referred to as non-climbers


----------



## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

Jwiffle said:


> Regardless of today's outcome, I think Sagan has shut up the critics (like Tinkov!). His form has been great all spring. It wasn't because he lacked form, motivation, or some psychological issue. All his 2nd, 3rd, and 4ths this spring showed he was always in the mix. He wasn't 'missing' anything-others just rose to his level.


Well, apparently Sagan's win has done nothing to shut up Tinkov, as he's now talking about trying to figure out how to get out of paying Sagan's salary.

And he complained they had no plan B for the classics. As if that was Sagan's fault. From what I saw in the classics, they barely had a plan at all-it was just throw Sagan out there on his own and demand, "Deliver!". He was usually isolated in n the classics.


----------



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

I sort of agree with you but I wish the media and the DS took a bit longer-term outlook than the constant hype/panic stories: "Sagan is the best rider ever!" "Sagan's star power is quickly fading!" "Sagan redeems himself" etc. Same with many other riders, not just Sagan. One day Nibali's 2014 season is a major disaster and calls in question whether he should even be the team leader for TdF, the next story just a few weeks later is how dominant he is on cobbles and climbs. Ettix have the stupid tactics and can't get anything right, then they are the smartest riders in the world.. etc. etc.


----------



## Local Hero (Jul 8, 2010)

Totally exciting, awesome race. 

It's nice to see Cav on form. And Sagan pipped him in one of the hectic sprints and then took the overall. Sagan definitely earned that victory.


----------



## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Meanwhile, from the Haters Gonna Hate file:



spookyload said:


> A seven day stage race with a prologue TT length ITT, four stages won by Cav, and the "queen stage" so difficult an non-climber can only lose a few seconds. Race was won by a field sprint in a criterium style finish. I can think of a few races that are a little more exciting to watch. When your mountain stage is so easy that a classics rider who cooked himself the day before still competes in the finish, you might want to dial it up a few notches in difficulty.


----------



## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

den bakker said:


> first time I've heard ten dam, gesink and zubeldia referred to as non-climbers


He was referring to Sagan as the non-climber who out-climbed the climbers such ad Gesink et al.


----------



## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

55x11 said:


> I sort of agree with you but I wish the media and the DS took a bit longer-term outlook than the constant hype/panic stories: "Sagan is the best rider ever!" "Sagan's star power is quickly fading!" "Sagan redeems himself" etc. Same with many other riders, not just Sagan. One day Nibali's 2014 season is a major disaster and calls in question whether he should even be the team leader for TdF, the next story just a few weeks later is how dominant he is on cobbles and climbs. Ettix have the stupid tactics and can't get anything right, then they are the smartest riders in the world.. etc. etc.


Yes, exactly.


----------



## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

Jwiffle said:


> He was referring to Sagan as the non-climber who out-climbed the climbers such ad Gesink et al.


they lost time. surely they are not climbers then when a non-climber beats them?


----------



## jetdog9 (Jul 12, 2007)

The stars that were supposed to perform did, some young kids impressed, and there was drama right up to the end, it was fun. Another climbing stage would have been fun, but I'm glad Sagan won GC and you'd think it wouldn't have happened if that were the case.


----------



## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

That was a thrilling race. Hats off to Sagan--Mt. Baldy IS a climb, and if you can beat Cavendish anytime, in any sprint, even once, you are by definition a sprinter. He just has more up his sleeve that that one trick.

He was in the mix on virtually every sprint. The best placed of the pure sprinters in the GC was Logan Owen, in 52nd. Cav finished 67th, Tyler Farrar 73rd, Zico Waeytens 85th and Wouter Wippert 116th. Sagan lost 47 seconds on stage 7, while Cavendish lost more than 21 minutes. Sagan has a special mix of talents.


----------



## Seattleblu (Jul 28, 2006)

How long is Sagan's Contract? I'd be shopping it soon if it's only for 1 yr. Love watching him race.

Also love seeing the pov camera's...nerve's of steel when Sagan came under Farrar and beat everyone. *Giro 2015 - Velon*


----------



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

Fireform said:


> That was a thrilling race. Hats off to Sagan--Mt. Baldy IS a climb, and if you can beat Cavendish anytime, in any sprint, even once, you are by definition a sprinter. He just has more up his sleeve that that one trick.
> 
> He was in the mix on virtually every sprint. The best placed of the pure sprinters in the GC was Logan Owen, in 52nd. Cav finished 67th, Tyler Farrar 73rd, Zico Waeytens 85th and Wouter Wippert 116th. Sagan lost 47 seconds on stage 7, while Cavendish lost more than 21 minutes. Sagan has a special mix of talents.


Logan Owen is a twenty year old Espoir on the Bissel Devo Squad

he's a cx racer and road racer, he's a puncheur, I wouldn't classify him as a pure sprinter


----------



## Cni2i (Jun 28, 2010)

Donn12 said:


> The best race I have seen. I was really pulling for Sagan


Me too especially after most discounted him on the Mt. Baldy stage. I believe one of the announcers mentioned that he was down over 30 mins on this exact same stage several years back! He obviously didn't have the same incentive as he wasn't in yellow then, but still....what a tremendous effort. And on the final stage where he had to react to all those explosive attacks from Etixx and late break-away attempts...and still take 2nd on the intermittent sprint and third on the final sprint. Major props to Sagan.


----------



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

that's just strengthens the point. Maybe the top sprinter was Haedo in 53rd, 36min back or perhaps Van Poppel in 65th, 41 minutes behind Sagan - still, thats quite a gap!

I was *REALLY* surprised at how well Sagan did on Baldy (even though short time trial certainly helped) but also how so many teams came away with nothing. Or basically nothing. Farrar, Goss, Dombrowski, Craddock, Gesink, Zubeldia, Gaimon, King(s), Rosskopf, Brajkovic, Ten Damm, VanMarcke, Morton, Zirbel, Rodriguez, etc. They weren't even in the mix!

Ettix took 5 stages, 4 out of 5 by Cav. Sagan took another 2 plus GC. Aside from Hincapie breakaway guy on Mt. Hamilton stage, that's it?

Still, great week of racing and the most suspenseful last two stages I have witnessed! Giro (which I also watch religiously) was so-so, we had the same trio of Aru, Contador and Porte punch each other in deja-vue like style (without any GC changes) with breakaway winning basically every mountain stage. Not so interesting if you ask me.

But a GC guy sprinting and a sprinter climbing for GC, with the race decided by 4 mm, and time bonuses on "ceremonial final stage", that's exciting!!!!


----------



## ph0enix (Aug 12, 2009)

I remember thinking last week (I think after stage 4) that the ToC is the type of tour that Sagan could actually win ...and he did. I'm happy for him. I want to see him as a GC contender in in a grand tour in the future.

I'm happy for Cav too!


----------



## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Seattleblu said:


> How long is Sagan's Contract? I'd be shopping it soon if it's only for 1 yr. Love watching him race.
> 
> Also love seeing the pov camera's...nerve's of steel when Sagan came under Farrar and beat everyone. *Giro 2015 - Velon*


Absolutely loved the on bike camera view - sure shows one how Sagan gets the wins. He sure came in tight, fast and just muscled Farrar out of the way!
The camera showing Cav's win on the last stage showed just how fast he can accelerate.

Fun race to watch!


----------



## radripperaj (Mar 7, 2015)

spookyload said:


> A seven day stage race with a prologue TT length ITT, four stages won by Cav, and the "queen stage" so difficult an non-climber can only lose a few seconds. Race was won by a field sprint in a criterium style finish. I can think of a few races that are a little more exciting to watch. When your mountain stage is so easy that a classics rider who cooked himself the day before still competes in the finish, you might want to dial it up a few notches in difficulty.


Honestly I think this was actually one of the best stage races I have seen. I like the amount of each type of stage this race had. This was the type of race that several different types of riders were fighting for the win. How awesome was it to see sagan, who is mostly a sprinter type killing himself on the climb. Then to see Alaphilippe, who is mostly GC/Climber type fighting for an intermediate sprint bonus. I wish more stage races would have a setup like this. I hate that the everybody only tries on the courses that are suited for them and everyone knows its going to be a climber type that wins the overall. It might be interesting if they gave huge time bonuses for the top three in sprints for the grand tours. That way sprinters might actually try harder on the climbs. plus the GC guys would be a little more worried about the flat stages instead of just waiting for mountains.


----------



## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

radripperaj said:


> I wish more stage races would have a setup like this. I hate that the everybody only tries on the courses that are suited for them and everyone knows its going to be a climber type that wins the overall. It might be interesting if they gave huge time bonuses for the top three in sprints for the grand tours. That way sprinters might actually try harder on the climbs. plus the GC guys would be a little more worried about the flat stages instead of just waiting for mountains.


Interesting idea, but Sagan is an more of an all-rounder who can sprint really well. Our type flight sprinters (Cav, Kittel, Griepel and a few others) just die on HC climbs - especially when there is more than one. That, and having more teams trying to drill it at the front just before the sprints would be utter chaos and likely lead to allot of injuries - IMHO.


----------



## Robert1 (Mar 27, 2012)

It was so cool to see Sagan. You have to wonder how much of his suffering and pushing himself was due to Tinkoff's owner Oleg publicly bashing and humiliating Sagan on Twitter. I'll bet Sagan really felt like he needed to redeem himself. I don't think I've ever seen him suffer like he did after the baldy climb. I really hate when people in power use these types of tactics but it did seem to inspire him to go to the next level.





radripperaj said:


> Honestly I think this was actually one of the best stage races I have seen. I like the amount of each type of stage this race had. This was the type of race that several different types of riders were fighting for the win. How awesome was it to see sagan, who is mostly a sprinter type killing himself on the climb. Then to see Alaphilippe, who is mostly GC/Climber type fighting for an intermediate sprint bonus. I wish more stage races would have a setup like this. I hate that the everybody only tries on the courses that are suited for them and everyone knows its going to be a climber type that wins the overall. It might be interesting if they gave huge time bonuses for the top three in sprints for the grand tours. That way sprinters might actually try harder on the climbs. plus the GC guys would be a little more worried about the flat stages instead of just waiting for mountains.


----------



## quatre24 (Mar 18, 2008)

Without the Big Bear stage that changed the plans around for many racers. Odds are Sagan would not have won the GC without the TT stage change. As for Mt. Baldy there is dirt service road that goes left from the base of the kicker wall into the ski lift parking lot, avioding last about 200feet gain in 0.7 miles currently, under the ski lift. Road heads to the top of Baldy Notch at 7800feet elev with a resturant and other buildings at the top. Adds three to four miles with about 1400 feet more climbing. From the village to the notch 3600 feet in 7-8 miles.


----------

