# Paris-Roubaix Predictions



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

So, looking at the past three years, the favorites are Cancellara, Flecha, and some guy named Tom. Heartbreaker Hincapie will look to improve his legs after last week's Ronde, but American's have been burned by putting all their Easter eggs in the aging George's basket before. Hausler is looking to improve on his two second-place finishes this season, but the upstart Cervelo Test Team is hurting after touring Flanders. Dark horses include Hoste, who is looking to turn over a new leaf; Chavanel, who has new-found stardom as an MVP teammate; Devolder for a double; or even Roger Hammond.

If Cancellara can find his form after injury, and doesnt break his now-DuraAce chain, he is certain to try and motor away, hitting the velodrome solo for the win. But if he has company in the form of Boonen, expect to see the Belgian kissing his third cobble. While he will be marked by everyone, smart money is on Boonen. 

My pick is a safety: QuickStep blue (but riding in muddy whites) will control the race and *Boonen * will get one more rock for his stone garden.


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## empty_set (Nov 1, 2006)

I'm looking for a Hincapie win. Stapleton says in today's CN that they'll be riding for him. I hope those guys pay him back at some point this season.

Failing that; Boonen, Haussler and Devolder on the podium.


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## rdrcr920 (Jul 27, 2006)

Odds are against him but I'd love to see George win. I don't mind putting all my eggs in one basket.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

Hincapie will never win Paris-Roubaix.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Hey I wonder if I could do a survey and determine the correlation between people who think Hincapie can win, and people who think the Cubs will win the World Series. Maybe cross it against people who think leprechauns are real?


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## rdrcr920 (Jul 27, 2006)

Yeah, I wonder if you could do that survey? That would be really cool!


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

QuickStep all the way. For me the question is who will play the fox Boonen, Devolder or Chavanel. I guess the opposition's option is limited to who they let go away.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

My prediction:


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## Lumbergh (Aug 19, 2005)

George has a remote chance if he ditches the weak equipment in favor of something more sturdy - start with the aero carbon tubies, for example


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Mark Cavendish.


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## Bertrand (Feb 1, 2005)

This is Svein Tuft's kind of race. A long shot, but I'll be pulling for him.


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## kmac (Feb 13, 2007)

Maybe Maaskant from Slipstream for a good result. Maybe not a win, but he seems to have been in the mix recently.


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## FatTireFred (Jan 31, 2005)

*I predict...*

hell


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

ok I'll say Devolder.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

1. Boonen
2. Pozzato
3. Cancellara


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

Its supposed to rain this weekend, so who does well in bad weather? Tough guys with experience. I say Boonen triples.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Creakyknees said:


> ok I'll say Devolder.


Good man, always choose Devolder. 

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

i almost teased this in the write-up with boonen, chavanel, and devolder.



pretender said:


> My prediction:


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## ronbo613 (Jan 19, 2009)

> Hincapie will never win Paris-Roubaix.


Maybe, but if he did win it would sure add to the history of the race.

I'm pulling for him, I'd love to see him win. Boonen can come in second and the _cycle_ will be complete


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## bigpinkt (Jul 20, 2006)

FatTireFred said:


> hell


That is such a good movie

Hincapie.


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## spinwax (Nov 28, 2007)

The Arenberg Trench will decide the race as it has many times in the past. Well, I hope it does, that makes it fun.

No love for Ballan? I would like to see him win. He is a quiet strong man!!


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## cyclejim (Mar 31, 2004)

I wouldn't mind seeing Hincapie win it but lets be honest the guy always seems to find a way to lose. It seems he doesn't have that killer instinct when it really counts to pull out the big ones.


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## thebadger (Jul 27, 2002)

Chavanel had a breakthrough last year and is now on a strong team but its interesting how many are picking him as a favorite when, as far as I can tell, he's only raced Roubaix twice since 2001, hasn't done the race in 6 years and his only finish was in '03... 23 minutes behind. 

BTW - Ballan is not racing. Thus, the lack of love.


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## loubnc (May 8, 2008)

Boonen, Cancellara, Flecha

Last 20k:

Devolder/Chavanel go all out for Tom. Fabian gets in the front group and hangs on until the sprint. Rabobank steamrolls Flecha up to the front. Katusha/Pozzato crack. Maaskant is fourth. Sorry, George...another top 10, though.


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## bertoni (Jan 10, 2008)

kmac said:


> Maybe Maaskant from Slipstream for a good result. Maybe not a win, but he seems to have been in the mix recently.


That guy is very impressive for his age. I am rooting for him as an upset over the Quick Step train.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I don't consider statistical probability for this race and I put all of my eggs in George's basket.


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## Doctor Who (Feb 22, 2005)

I'll be the pessimist and call a DNF for George. I predict that A) a dog will walk into his path and will maul him horribly, B) a black hole opens up and sucks him in, or C) he flats at an extremely inconvenient moment.

Either way, Big George probably won't win. Noted, though, if he does win, I'll be extremely happy.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

cyclejim said:


> I wouldn't mind seeing Hincapie win it but lets be honest the guy always seems to find a way to lose. It seems he doesn't have that killer instinct when it really counts to pull out the big ones.


I don't really buy into the whole "killer instinct" thing. People used to say the same thing about Miguel Indurain; his humility and gentle demeanor (even in races) drove his rivals crazy: 
"Indurain makes me sick because he's actually a really nice guy. You can't actually work yourself up, there's no hate involved, no anger." -Chris Boardman-

That being said, I don't think George is lacking in anything to win the race. He has the talent for sure and wants to win this race more than any other. Watching Hincapie race Paris-Roubaix is frustrating though; something always breaks or goes wrong. If anything, he might be _too_ aggressive in this race.


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

Creakyknees said:


> Hey I wonder if I could do a survey and determine the correlation between people who think Hincapie can win, and people who think the Cubs will win the World Series. Maybe cross it against people who think leprechauns are real?


The cubs will win, hincapie will not, and leprechauns are not to be messed with.

Haussler FTW.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I don know who's gonna win but it ain't gonna be Hincapie.


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## ProRoad (Oct 13, 2008)

thechriswebb said:


> I don't really buy into the whole "killer instinct" thing. People used to say the same thing about Miguel Indurain; his humility and gentle demeanor (even in races) drove his rivals crazy:
> "Indurain makes me sick because he's actually a really nice guy. You can't actually work yourself up, there's no hate involved, no anger." -Chris Boardman-
> 
> That being said, I don't think George is lacking in anything to win the race. He has the talent for sure and wants to win this race more than any other. Watching Hincapie race Paris-Roubaix is frustrating though; something always breaks or goes wrong. If anything, he might be _too_ aggressive in this race.


Really? Have you ever raced? or won a race? I can hear myself growling (or screaming) on a good day. Any other day I am only in the top 10.. I dont mean to sound rude but I often feel like a caged animal when I really have it going on. 

The killer instinct is very real, and George, as awesome as he is, does not usually have it.

I hope he wins, I will be jumping up and down for him.:thumbsup: 
Brian


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## jhamlin38 (Oct 29, 2005)

if it rains, I'd throw everything out the window.
that said, Pozzatto won't let Boonen outta his sight. and Devolder will be marked by Hoste, leaving Chavanel to have another go of it. 
Rabobank has a set of good guys, in Flecha, Nuyens. 
Ballan hasn't been racing, I don't think. cancellara hasn't had things his way. Maascrant has a small team, as does Astana.
I'd love to see Hincapie set up Cavendish. I don't see George outsprinting anyone he's with, and he'll be marked if he goes long. 
QS is still best overall team...
I can't friggin wait, but prefer LBL more...


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*well if I was betting*

I'd go with Tom.QS will control this race and Tom hopefully will pick his moment without sacrificing his entire squad.
Chavanel, I don't see as a great one for these stones. Stijn and Tom will have everyone guessing but it's gonna be Tom.
George has great form and a great team. I too would be pleased but my hope has been waning since the steer tube.
he just seems cursed in this race


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## philippec (Jun 16, 2002)

I'd say that Guesdon has as much of a chance as winning but upon reflection, he has more of a chance given that he has won more classics than Hincapie! ;-)


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

jhamlin38 said:


> I don't see George outsprinting anyone he's with, and he'll be marked if he goes long.



George has a very good sprint and I would put him up against many of the "favorites" in a sprint, including devolder, hoste, chavanel, pozzato, possibly haussler. 

For someone who is pretty low key, congenial and consistent, George seems to provoke a lot of emotion. People who pick him for the win, self included, are often going with their gut. But those who say he has NO chance are also guilty of being overly sentimental. He's been competitive in the race year after year. He's had bad luck, but a lot of good luck in this race too just to be sniffing the podium as he has. And he knows how to prepare for this race. So to say he has NO chance is unreasonable, to put it mildly. 

Go George.


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

ProRoad said:


> Really? Have you ever raced? or won a race? I can hear myself growling (or screaming) on a good day. Any other day I am only in the top 10.. I dont mean to sound rude but I often feel like a caged animal when I really have it going on.
> 
> The killer instinct is very real, and George, as awesome as he is, does not usually have it.
> 
> ...



So what you're saying is that you have the killer instinct and George just doesn't?


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## farm (Jul 10, 2008)

Maaskant will be on the podium. 

Silence-Lotto and Rabobank will go after him this summer.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Here's a short full of old school gnarly wrecks including E Merckx and his wife.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

I don't think Ballan is lining up. 



> No love for Ballan? I would like to see him win. He is a quiet strong man!!


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Creakyknees said:


> ok I'll say Devolder.



If things play out much like last week for the marked man Boonen at the RVV I'm inclined to agree that Devolder could very well be set up for another win at Roubaix. I figure there are about 12 guys who have a chance at being in the mix near the end. I give Boonen, Cancellara, Hoste, Devolder and Flecha something like a 75% chance. Hincapie, Knaven, Hammond and Pozzato I give a 50% chance to be around. Hagen, Maaskant and Haussler are up and coming dark horses that I give a 25% chance to make the final selection. Beyond that is a total anything goes lottery.

It'll be someone who weighs at least 160lbs.


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## spinwax (Nov 28, 2007)

weltyed said:


> I don't think Ballan is lining up.



Ahh, sad to hear. Is Lampre even going to be there? Unfortunately, I have been so wrapped up in work and riding, I have lost touch with pro cycling.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

thebadger said:


> Chavanel had a breakthrough last year and is now on a strong team but its interesting how many are picking him as a favorite when, as far as I can tell, he's only raced Roubaix twice since 2001, hasn't done the race in 6 years and his only finish was in '03... 23 minutes behind.
> 
> BTW - Ballan is not racing. Thus, the lack of love.


I doubt Chavanel could make the podium in Roubaix considering that he weighs only 150lbs.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

*ok*



ProRoad said:


> Really? Have you ever raced? or won a race? I can hear myself growling (or screaming) on a good day. Any other day I am only in the top 10.. I dont mean to sound rude but I often feel like a caged animal when I really have it going on.
> 
> The killer instinct is very real, and George, as awesome as he is, does not usually have it.
> 
> ...


OK, I'll bite. By the way, I didn't take offense to what you said, I just want to clarify my position a little bit. This is a subject that comes up a LOT in cycling discussion, or pretty much any sport that is hard. I'm not saying that aggression, emotion, or will power are not helpful attributes, but I think that some hasty generalizations get made about that. Intelligence, patience, experience, and cool-headedness are attributes that are often disregarded in favor of "killer instinct." That killer instinct bites people sometimes, too (think Contador at Paris Nice). God almighty, this reminds me of when I was in the Army.

I participated in a land navigation race when I was an Infantryman in the 10th Mountain Division. I'll admit it; I have a really B-type personality, but this was a time that it served me well. This wasn't a boyscout type orienteering course, it was an extremely grueling several hour suck-fest in full battle kit and boots. I had to run as hard as I could the whole time, and I vomited several times during the race (as was pretty typical for this type of event). When we started, everybody took off as fast as they could, but I stayed back for a few minutes before I started with my map to plot the points. It was soooo hard, but I kept steady and pushed through until I was done. I was pretty surprised when I got back to find that I was the fourth person to come in: a pretty good finish. The leaders checked my points and then told me that though I wasn't the first person to come in, I was the first person to come in with ALL of the correct points. Before the race was over, several people (with strong A-type "I cannot lose" personalities) were caught cheating, and about a dozen people got demoted for breach of integrity. I was declared the winner, much to the surprise of a lot of people in my unit that, though they liked me, thought that I could never be successful at that type of thing because I didn't have that "killer instinct" (exactly the term that they used). 

Well, I was very successful as a soldier and got promoted ahead of people who had been in the army longer than me and got a lot of "soldier of the month" type awards. There were a lot of guys that worked with me though, that predicted that it would be quite a different story when we deployed to war because "I like Webb, and he is a really good soldier and all, but he just doesn't have that killer instinct." So, later on my platoon was responding to an attack on some Afghani policeman while we were deployed to Afghanistan. It turned out to be a baited ambush, and we got hit HARD. We had all been in many engagements by that point, but this took the cake. I was a machine gunner in the turret of a Humvee, and was relieved when we had somehow gotten through the ambush site in one piece. I prepared to respond like the Army protocol was for an ambush, and turn around and level the ambush site with my machine gun from where we were, a short distance away. Then, my superior in the Humvee (one of the main guys who had been making the "killer instinct" argument against me) ordered the driver to drive us back into the ambush. We couldn't argue, it just doesn't work like that in the Army. We drove back in and started doing these crazy strafing runs that were ordered by the leader, and I couldn't argue because I was the guy sticking out of the top of the Humvee getting shot at, and I had to fight back as hard as I could. I got shot, but had to keep fighting while this guy kept telling the driver to turn around and go back in every time we made it through. Then, an armor piercing RPG hit the Humvee and peppered me with shrapnel and blew a hole in my abdomen about two inches wide. Mr. killer instinct froze up and I told him to get out of the truck and run away because it was full of grenades that were going to cook off soon. He dropped his rifle, but kept running away without it while I stayed in the burning truck to give covering fire while he was getting away. That was the worst part. I stayed until my machine gun was hit by an enemy bullet and I couldn't fire it anymore. I figured that those grenades were going to be cooking off soon, so I dove off of the other side of the truck, landed on my face, and crawled away 500 meters away under fire until a very brave medic found me. So, I got evacuated and people started saying all of this hero stuff, and I got some medals, and then Sec. of Def. Rumsfield came and visited me in the hospital and gave me a gift, and all of that crap. When my unit came home and I was getting discharged for my wounds, everything had gone back to the same, and that same leader slandered me for not staying in the Army (I couldn't do Infantry anymore b/c of the wounds, so the Army said that if I wanted to, they could keep me in the Army and let me reclassify into a soft skilled job that I could do, or I could take a discharge if I wanted it. I took the discharge with a clean conscience). I asked that leader what his problem was with me getting out of the Army, and he said: "Well Webb, there is an option for you to stay in, and you aren't taking it. You see, I think that you are scared because you got shot at, and you don't want to go back, and you decided that maybe you just weren't cut out for this kind of work. Nothing really against you Webb, you just don't have that killer instinct." 

OK, sorry, once I get going on that stuff I have a hard time stopping. The killer instinct thing just strikes a raw nerve sometimes. If anything good came from that injury, the partial paralysis of my right hand forced me to give up kayaking ( I used to be really good; I taught whitewater kayaking clinics full time, paddled with pro's, and felt like I had a pretty good chance of making it myself) and I took up cycling. The poor grip-strength in my right hand doesn't hinder me there, and I have become absolutely smitten with the sport. Anyway, I promise that I am trying to make a point about Paris Roubaix and cycling in general. People are soooo caught up in "killer instinct" and I hear great athletes like George, and especially Levi Leipheimer get dissed for it (I'm not saying that you did that, just that some people do). On the flip side, I see people like Riccardo Ricco get busted for cheating, but people defend them because "he just has such a drive to win that he will do anything to get it. It's just his nature; his killer instinct". George is an outstanding athlete, and has every bit of drive and talent necessary to win Paris Roubaix. He has been top-ten many times and has stood on the podium. If George Hincapie ends up being 90 years old, and has to be lifted from his power chair and put on his bike at the beginning of Paris Roubaix, I'm still going to put all of my eggs in one basket and bet on him. 

....But he'll probably get hit by a meteor and DNF.

-Chris-


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

jhamlin38 said:


> if it rains, I'd throw everything out the window.
> that said, Pozzatto won't let Boonen outta his sight. and Devolder will be marked by Hoste, leaving Chavanel to have another go of it.
> Rabobank has a set of good guys, in Flecha, Nuyens.
> Ballan hasn't been racing, I don't think. cancellara hasn't had things his way. Maascrant has a small team, as does Astana.
> ...


I don't think Pozzato is capable of controlling the situation with Boonen on the P-R cobbles like he could in RVV. I hardly give him a 50% chance of making the final selection to battle it out for the win. Chavanel is too light weight at 150lbs. to win on P-R stones. Cavendish isn't on the start list. I think it's possible that Hincapie couldn't beat Flecha, Devolder or Hoste in a sprint. QS is obviously the strongest team.


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

jhamlin38 said:


> I'd love to see Hincapie set up Cavendish. I don't see George outsprinting anyone he's with, and he'll be marked if he goes long.


I hate to say this, but Hincapie working for Cavendish in PR would be such a waste.


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

Well, Cavendish isn't starting so I guess that rules that little scenario out. Boonan. Just because. George almost wins but crashes horribly coming into the velodrome. Or something like that.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> So, later on my platoon was responding to an attack on some Afghani policeman while we were deployed to Afghanistan. It turned out to be a baited ambush, and we got hit HARD. We had all been in many engagements by that point, but this took the cake. I was a machine gunner in the turret of a Humvee, and was relieved when we had somehow gotten through the ambush site in one piece. I prepared to respond like the Army protocol was for an ambush, and turn around and level the ambush site with my machine gun from where we were, a short distance away. Then, my superior in the Humvee (one of the main guys who had been making the "killer instinct" argument against me) ordered the driver to drive us back into the ambush. We couldn't argue, it just doesn't work like that in the Army. We drove back in and started doing these crazy strafing runs that were ordered by the leader, and I couldn't argue because I was the guy sticking out of the top of the Humvee getting shot at, and I had to fight back as hard as I could. I got shot, but had to keep fighting while this guy kept telling the driver to turn around and go back in every time we made it through. Then, an armor piercing RPG hit the Humvee and peppered me with shrapnel and blew a hole in my abdomen about two inches wide. Mr. killer instinct froze up and I told him to get out of the truck and run away because it was full of grenades that were going to cook off soon. He dropped his rifle, but kept running away without it while I stayed in the burning truck to give covering fire while he was getting away. That was the worst part. I stayed until my machine gun was hit by an enemy bullet and I couldn't fire it anymore. I figured that those grenades were going to be cooking off soon, so I dove off of the other side of the truck, landed on my face, and crawled away 500 meters away under fire until a very brave medic found me. So, I got evacuated and people started saying all of this hero stuff, and I got some medals, and then Sec. of Def. Rumsfield came and visited me in the hospital and gave me a gift, and all of that crap. When my unit came home and I was getting discharged for my wounds, everything had gone back to the same, and that same leader slandered me for not staying in the Army (I couldn't do Infantry anymore b/c of the wounds, so the Army said that if I wanted to, they could keep me in the Army and let me reclassify into a soft skilled job that I could do, or I could take a discharge if I wanted it. I took the discharge with a clean conscience). I asked that leader what his problem was with me getting out of the Army, and he said: "Well Webb, there is an option for you to stay in, and you aren't taking it. You see, I think that you are scared because you got shot at, and you don't want to go back, and you decided that maybe you just weren't cut out for this kind of work. Nothing really against you Webb, you just don't have that killer instinct."


That's one hell of a story and thank you for your service. 

With all do respect to all who have served I think "Mr. killer instinct" sounds like the sort of arse-hole who'll get a lot of guys killed needlessly and if he's lucky enough not to get himself killed along the way he'll manage to weasel his way up the ranks. I wouldn't want to work with guy like that let alone go into any sort of dangerous situation with him.

Rant over.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

wheezer said:


> George has a very good sprint and I would put him up against many of the "favorites" in a sprint, including devolder, hoste, chavanel, pozzato, possibly haussler.


I think not with Pozzato and Haussler. I think Chavanel might be able to beat him in a sprint too but it's very doubtful that Chavanel would be in such a position at the end.


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## ProRoad (Oct 13, 2008)

wheezer said:


> So what you're saying is that you have the killer instinct and George just doesn't?


LOL. Nope. I don't really think I am qualified to say whether he has it or not. Talk is cheap.. 

George is my number one favorite to win Rubaix and his great career speaks for itself. 

I am just saying that I believe in killer instinct. From personal experience, I never would have won anything without it. Some days I had it, others I didn't.

These guys are the top Pro's in the world. Most of us, including me, will never be in their league.

Brian


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## jhamlin38 (Oct 29, 2005)

*thechriswebb*

very good story. Its great to hear that you're still active and enjoying life (and alive). Eff that dude that dissed you for not staying in the service. In the long run, what's better for you and your life? Certainly not trying to live by some other dude's opinion. 

as for George. I shouldn't say there's NO way he can win. Of course there is. I was soooo disappointed when Tomeke rode away from him in the velodrome that year. 

that said, I was more thrilled when he won that mountain stage in the tour with disco. Probably my favorite victory in recent memory. Right up there with Cancellara motoring away to his victories over the past couple years...

I can't wait... I hope good luck comes to George, Cancellara, Flecha, Devolder, Maascrant, and everyone. It sucks when a mechanical takes a favorite out of the running. I'm just a big fan of the classics.

I'd like to see Cav go for PR.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

rocco said:


> That's one hell of a story and thank you for your service.
> 
> With all do respect to all who have served I think "Mr. killer instinct" sounds like the sort of arse-hole who'll get a lot of guys killed needlessly and if he's lucky enough not to get himself killed along the way he'll manage to weasel his way up the ranks. I wouldn't want to work with guy like that let alone go into any sort of dangerous situation with him.
> 
> Rant over.


Thanks for the kind words. I want to emphasize that I'm not attacking anybody with this post. I just remember a time when no matter how good at my job I was, some jerk that didn't perform as well as me, that had served extra duty at some point for failing a urinalysis, would be considered "better" because he had "killer instinct" and senselessly yelled at his soldiers a lot. It might seem like a strange analogy to some people, but I see so many parallels in cycling that it drives me nuts. People believe that there is this special "something" that some people have that matters more than skill or experience, and I just don't subscribe to it. Yeah, aggression and drive can go a very long way in a sport like cycling, but it isn't the end-all. I also think that sometimes a cocky bad attitude is mistaken for "killer instinct", and sometimes a person that pours their all into something gets overlooked because they suffer in silence, or labor for somebody else on their team (like George or Levi), or attack with a pleasant smile and let others win stages that they could have won (like Indurain) because they already have the overall lead and don't feel the need to rub it into everybody's face. A lot of A-type people that accused me of "not having killer instinct" in that race I was talking about talked some serious trash, but they still didn't finish as fast as me, even though they cheated. And, I'm going to state again, that I think that it is possible that the reason that George always bites it at Paris Roubaix is because he is so emotionally invested in that race, and that he attacks it as furiously as he does.... Just a possibility I've considered. 

-Chris-


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## ProRoad (Oct 13, 2008)

thechriswebb said:


> OK, I'll bite. By the way, I didn't take offense to what you said, I just want to clarify my position a little bit. This is a subject that comes up a LOT in cycling discussion, or pretty much any sport that is hard. I'm not saying that aggression, emotion, or will power are not helpful attributes, but I think that some hasty generalizations get made about that. Intelligence, patience, experience, and cool-headedness are attributes that are often disregarded in favor of "killer instinct." That killer instinct bites people sometimes, too (think Contador at Paris Nice). God almighty, this reminds me of when I was in the Army.
> 
> I participated in a land navigation race when I was an Infantryman in the 10th Mountain Division. I'll admit it; I have a really B-type personality, but this was a time that it served me well. This wasn't a boyscout type orienteering course, it was an extremely grueling several hour suck-fest in full battle kit and boots. I had to run as hard as I could the whole time, and I vomited several times during the race (as was pretty typical for this type of event). When we started, everybody took off as fast as they could, but I stayed back for a few minutes before I started with my map to plot the points. It was soooo hard, but I kept steady and pushed through until I was done. I was pretty surprised when I got back to find that I was the fourth person to come in: a pretty good finish. The leaders checked my points and then told me that though I wasn't the first person to come in, I was the first person to come in with ALL of the correct points. Before the race was over, several people (with strong A-type "I cannot lose" personalities) were caught cheating, and about a dozen people got demoted for breach of integrity. I was declared the winner, much to the surprise of a lot of people in my unit that, though they liked me, thought that I could never be successful at that type of thing because I didn't have that "killer instinct" (exactly the term that they used).
> 
> ...


That is a hell of a story! I commend you for your service and for keeping us safe here at home. My 19 yo next door neighbor was also a Humvee gunner and did not come home.

I hope the Government takes good care of you in the future.

I see that there is a very specific meaning to the term "killer instinct" from your experience.

I really love the sport of cycling and I am glad that you do too.

Go George!

Brian


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## roadie92 (Jan 21, 2008)

1.Boonen or Devolder
2.Pozzato
3. Maaskant or Cancellar


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

good story thechriswebb. perhaps the best i've heard on the BB. 

so has anyone taken thor? he's on form and perhaps, with hammond and haussler, has the best pieces to play against boonen/chavanel/devolder.


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

*Let's talk about why Boonen CAN'T win.*

Since he seems to be the people's choice, how exactly is Boonen supposed to win? What's the name of the guy who's going to bring Boonen to the line? And how is it that he's going to go solo? As we saw in Flanders, he will be neutralized, but not only by Pozzato. Boonen can create the scenario where they have the numbers and someone like Devolder or Chavanel turns themselves inside out for him, but it will only take a Hincapie, or Pizzato, or Flescha, haussler, etc to be in that group and you'll see that QS will not like their chancs. They showed us that when they had the numbers in Flanders with Devolder (?) pulling for Boonen and with Pipo in the group, QS shut it down. So who's going to bring Boonen to the line? There's too many guys showing early form this year to let Tom go by himself. So how is he going to win? He can't.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

function said:


> I hate to say this, but Hincapie working for Cavendish in PR would be such a waste.


-I like to watch Cavendish sprint in the stage races; awesome to watch.

-If I found out that Hincapie was working for Cavendish in PR, I would turn my TV off. 

-Cav isn't competing in this one, so nothing to worry about.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

wheezer said:


> Since he seems to be the people's choice, how exactly is Boonen supposed to win? What's the name of the guy who's going to bring Boonen to the line? And how is it that he's going to go solo? As we saw in Flanders, he will be neutralized, but not only by Pozzato. Boonen can create the scenario where they have the numbers and someone like Devolder or Chavanel turns themselves inside out for him, but it will only take a Hincapie, or Pizzato, or Flescha, haussler, etc to be in that group and you'll see that QS will not like their chancs. They showed us that when they had the numbers in Flanders with Devolder (?) pulling for Boonen and with Pipo in the group, QS shut it down. So who's going to bring Boonen to the line? There's too many guys showing early form this year to let Tom go by himself. So how is he going to win? He can't.



Granted Boonen is a marked man but RVV and P-R are very different races and the form that the riders are in isn't static either so what happened last week likely will not repeat tomorrow. Furthermore, guys most likely to make the final selection (Boonen, Cancellara, Devolder, Hoste... maybe Hincapie, Flecha and or Pozzato) are going to do their best to mark each other's moves. It will come down to luck (no flats/mechanical failures or no stoppages at train crossings) and being able to power away from everyone else over the stones or winning a mini bunch sprint.


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## flyingheel (Aug 30, 2008)

1.) Hoste
2.) Cancellara
3.) Boonen (over small chase group)


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

with thor's fall in flanders, and initial reports of a broken wrist, i think the bet would be on HH or hammond before thor. HH has said he is already feeling the season in his legs, so it falls to hammond. 
but the god of thunder may be doing better than we think.



wheezer said:


> so has anyone taken thor? he's on form and perhaps, with hammond and haussler, has the best pieces to play against boonen/chavanel/devolder.


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

wheezer said:


> Since he seems to be the people's choice, how exactly is Boonen supposed to win? What's the name of the guy who's going to bring Boonen to the line? And how is it that he's going to go solo? As we saw in Flanders, he will be neutralized, but not only by Pozzato. Boonen can create the scenario where they have the numbers and someone like Devolder or Chavanel turns themselves inside out for him, but it will only take a Hincapie, or Pizzato, or Flescha, haussler, etc to be in that group and you'll see that QS will not like their chancs. They showed us that when they had the numbers in Flanders with Devolder (?) pulling for Boonen and with Pipo in the group, QS shut it down. So who's going to bring Boonen to the line? There's too many guys showing early form this year to let Tom go by himself. So how is he going to win? He can't.


He managed to carry himself to the line last year...


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## scottmilk9 (Jul 31, 2006)

I'm going with Hausler, dark horse would be hincapie.


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## El Caballito (Oct 31, 2004)

Go Hincapie!!!


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## kggb (Jul 2, 2005)

My prediction : Rain
That means everybody have a chance today


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

rocco said:


> I don't think Pozzato is capable of controlling the situation with Boonen on the P-R cobbles like he could in RVV. I hardly give him a 50% chance of making the final selection to battle it out for the win. Chavanel is too light weight at 150lbs. to win on P-R stones. Cavendish isn't on the start list. I think it's possible that Hincapie couldn't beat Flecha, Devolder or Hoste in a sprint. QS is obviously the strongest team.



Pozzato might make me eat my words afterall.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

I change my pick. 

Alberto Contador.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*and that is the way*



function said:


> He managed to carry himself to the line last year...


it goes at P-R
there are usually no helpers in the final 100K. it is mano a mano
one carries oneself to victory
and again on almost every stretch of Pave Boonen was the protagonist. He personally did much of the herd thinning. 
I'm glad it ended as it did. After much wheel sucking Pozzato had to go it alone with a 10 second gap to close. He couldn't do it. The strongest man won


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