# Predictions for Stage 19???



## Ride-Fly (Mar 27, 2002)

OK bubbas, what do you predict for this stage? Will Cadel have his bad day? (I hope not as I want him to wear yellow in Paris) Will AS make another attack in hopes of gaining more time on CE? (He has to think he will lose some major time to CE in the ITT) Will Voekler try to stay when one of the GC favorites attacks? (Does he expect to lose time in the ITT to AS? Definitely CE) Can Berto make a surprise comeback in this stage?

A few interesting combination of things can happen in these last two stages, wouldn't you say? 

I would love to see Cadel or TV win it all. But I would not be disappointed if one of the Schlecks won it. Or even Basso or Berto somehow miraculously pulled it out. 

What a nice Tour this is turning out to be.


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## JoelS (Aug 25, 2008)

I don't think Cadel will let another attack go. He paid for that decision today. Tomorrow should be interesting. Who's gonna crack?


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

Andy burnt a lot of matches today. Frank will be attacking and Cadel will either have to cover or if he can get help let it go and limit the losses. Contador is toast and has to attack hard tomorrow but he doesn't have it in his tank


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

Frank Attacks, Cadel limits the loss to him to 1:30 and Andy cracks and loses 2 minutes to Cadel. Vockler loses 2+ minutes or more.

End of tomorrow cumulative.

1.) Frank -
2.) Cadel +1:34
3.) Andy +2:34
4.) Vockler +2:45

Len


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Sanchez - attacks going for the Mtns Jersey

Frank and Andy - try and play a 1-2 on Cadel but he holds firm since Andy will need more than 2 mins in the TT and Franks needs like 5

Alberto - I think he folds

Basso rides along but does nothing major other than trying to get past Cunego

Vockeler - holds on for a podium spot and dear life

Danielson - trys to hold onto that top 10

Evans - rides into the history books as first Aussie to win the TdF


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## jswilson64 (May 20, 2008)

Well, Andy and/or Frank both need more time on Evans, so expect more of Jens Voigt dishing out pain on the first climb, maybe even up the Galibier. Maybe even Europcar, if they believe they can keep Voeckler in yellow one more day. If he can keep it going into Saturday, anything can happen on the TT - crashes, flats, bad days, and he could still march into Paris wearing it.


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

Evans learnt the hard way today that no other GCs or their teams are prepared to unite against the Schleck bros. Voeckler was, in true french form, prepared to surrender his yellow but got his second wind behind Cadel. 

I think the Evans best chance tomorrow is if the Spanish Armada go for broke to salvage at least a stage win,and he can be towed behind their sails. I think the shortness of the stage will make it particulary interesting, both at the front AND AT THE BACK of the peloton. My prediction: Cavendish will either miss the cut-off or be disqualified for 3x6 wheel driving.


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## JCavilia (Sep 12, 2005)

I predict all hell will break loose. Beynd that, it's mere speculation. I just read over the long thread on Stage 18, and not a single one of us brilliant observers was remotely close to predicting what happened today. So I'm keeping my mouth shut, except to predict that it will be very interesting.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

After today, all bets are off. My only prediction stands that Cadel will be wearing the Malliot Jaune on Sunday.


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## BCSaltchucker (Jul 20, 2011)

All on the Huez: Frank attacks early, sits up after Cadel freight trains up to him with everyone. Andy goes, Cadel hauls them all back with his diesel electric thighs. Frank goes hard and gets a bigger gap, Hesjedal chases, and Cadel chugs will Voeckler, Andy and 6 others in tow. The Contaductor unhitches his caboose from the train. Sanchez attacks, followed by Andy.

Andy and Sanchez reach Hesjedal and Frank. Hesjedal dropped. Also ran non-GC guys in an earlier break all caught and shelled.

Frank attacks 1km from top. Sanchez pulls Andy up to Frank then blows up. Frank tows Andy to the line, Andy lets him win again. Cadel comes in 1 minute behind. Andy gets yellow with a margin of 8 seconds over Cadel in Paris. Frank has the third step on the podium, 3 seconds ahead of Voeckler, or vice versa.

We can all have our wild guesses, can't we?


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

BCSaltchucker said:


> All on the Huez: Frank attacks early, sits up after Cadel freight trains up to him with everyone. Andy goes, Cadel hauls them all back with his diesel electric thighs. Frank goes hard and gets a bigger gap, Hesjedal chases, and Cadel chugs will Voeckler, Andy and 6 others in tow. The Contaductor unhitches his caboose from the train. Sanchez attacks, followed by Andy.
> 
> Andy and Sanchez reach Hesjedal and Frank. Hesjedal dropped. Also ran non-GC guys in an earlier break all caught and shelled.
> 
> ...


If Andy can successfully attack Evans tomorrow and then come back with a very strong TT on Saturday, after the effort he put in today, he deserves to win this year.

I wouldn't hold my breath though.

Len


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

looks like contador must have been feeling the pain today. evans will need to wheel suck andy, if not get time on him...just to be safe. still wondering why he didnt chase today. havent seen, only read, but it sounded like evans let schleck get away and didnt start the chase until late. of all people, he should know that waiting until thet last road stage might come back to haunt you. especially if you have a bad rear wheel change...


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

weltyed said:


> looks like contador must have been feeling the pain today. evans will need to wheel suck andy, if not get time on him...just to be safe. still wondering why he didnt chase today. havent seen, only read, but it sounded like evans let schleck get away and didnt start the chase until late. of all people, he should know that waiting until thet last road stage might come back to haunt you. especially if you have a bad rear wheel change...


Wow...only a 60 mile day......I'd love to do that ride sometime.....telegraph, galibier & then alpe du'huez......what an epic day.

Len


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## BassNBrew (Aug 4, 2008)

Thor attempts a breakway along with Gilbert. Thor drops the hammer on the Alp for his 3rd win.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Len J said:


> Wow...only a 60 mile day......I'd love to do that ride sometime.....telegraph, galibier & then alpe du'huez......what an epic day.


And then you have to turn around and ride back to the car!

Watching these stages makes me want to pack my bags and move to Grenoble. I used to visit there for work back in the day, but never thought to ride the Alps. I do regret that now.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

ukbloke said:


> And then you have to turn around and ride back to the car!


If I did that Ride, my wife would meet me at the top for lunch and drive me home. (because there is no way I could ride any more):blush2:



> Watching these stages makes me want to pack my bags and move to Grenoble. I used to visit there for work back in the day, but never thought to ride the Alps. I do regret that now.


You and me both, just for one season I'd like to live and ride there.

Len


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Rest day I said Andy and Cadel, that's still the case. Best guess? I think Andy tried to grab the race by the throat today. If he is not in complete survival mode tomorrow, he will try again for sure. Leopard-Trek tries the bridge tactic again on the last climb. I say they send Frank up the road if they can can manage it and try to get Andy to attack up to that support and re-evaluate. 

But, again, best guess, Andy and Cadel finish within 30 second of each other. All other GC action behind those two. Coin flip on which is on the upside of that margin.

TV cracks by the middle of the last climb, which will be sad.


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## IcemanYVR (Jul 27, 2006)

Len J said:


> Wow...only a 60 mile day......I'd love to do that ride sometime.....telegraph, galibier & then alpe du'huez......what an epic day.
> 
> Len


I've done it, from St. Jean du Maurienne... it's an epic ride. Took me just over 6 hours. If you ever have the chance, it's sooo worth it 

and if Andy has his legs tomorrow, I'm sure he'll attack on the lower slopes of l'Alpe d'Huez. The first stretch is killer, especially after a long ride.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

32and3cross said:


> Sanchez - attacks going for the Mtns Jersey
> 
> Frank and Andy - try and play a 1-2 on Cadel but he holds firm since Andy will need more than 2 mins in the TT and Franks needs like 5
> 
> ...


With the amount of climbing in ITT, I am revising my own previous estimates - if Andy is in yellow, he may defend final ITT with only 1 minute remaining. Frank is not a good time trialist but only because he never had to put in a very good time trial. Remember that he won (very unexpectedly) 2010 TdS in the final time trial - he was only 5 seconds behind Armstrong and a minute or so behind Cancellara/Martin. He may surprises us all.


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## ohvrolla (Aug 2, 2009)

Andy needs more time tomorrow. Last year's time trial was a little misleading in that Contador didn't put in a very good time trial, effectively making Andy look better than he was. I'd have to look it up as far as the time difference, but Menchov blistered the both of them in the time trial. My guess is Andy is in yellow at the start of Saturday, but not at the end. 

Of course Cadel didn't reel in Sastre so you never know who's gonna have a good day and who's gonna have a bad day after three weeks of racing.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

Cunego wins the stage. Andy picks up another 25 seconds on Evans.


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## CrazyCuz2K (Sep 8, 2009)

ohvrolla, spot on.... I don't think any rider will know how they'll feel after 3 weeks of racing and 5 HC climbs the past two days. Evans is faster than the Schlecks/Voeckler, by what margin... it's anyone's guess. TV's still got a fighting chance... he's made this year's race so much more animated. Everyone loves the hometown underdog story... even if he's french 

-- I can say that as my half brother is french


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## Magsdad (Jun 29, 2005)

In a horrible accident that will be forever remembered as "Black Friday", both Schleck brothers will be out of the Tour de France when their Treks simultaneously asplode on the drive side, creating a massive hole in the road, which also takes out the wheelsucking Evans and Voeckler. All that will be left of the frontrunners will be a tiny, half-flaming suitcase of courage, sadly laying empty by the side of the road.

I don't think I can watch.

Either that, or Cadel and Frank are going to duel it out. I don't think either man is willing to give it up.


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## pigpen (Sep 28, 2005)

Predictions?
PAIN!


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## NUTT (Apr 15, 2008)

Pain for certain.

Jens Voigt & Leopard-Trek push the pace, Frank & Andy trade attacks on the Alpe d'Huez; they are racing Cadel Evans and not worried about Voeckler or Contador. Neither Voekler nor Contador will be able to bridge the gap on an attack & it will be Andy, Frank, Cadel.

Late attack puts Andy in front of Cadel / Frank by 30 seconds, 3-4 minutes ahead of Voeckler / Contador. 

Andy goes to the ITT in Grenoble w/ 1:30 on Cadel and only loses a minute.

Paris is 1, 2, 3: Andy, Cadel, Frank.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Prediction: There will be a long queue at the massage table.

fc


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

Here's a question? What if Andy looks to be struggling tomorrow , paying for his efforts today? Should Evans then attack? He may prefer to preserve some energy for the TT but sometimes you gotta take what your competition gives you. And sometimes your best defense is offense.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

llama31 said:


> Here's a question? What if Andy looks to be struggling tomorrow , paying for his efforts today? Should Evans then attack? He may prefer to preserve some energy for the TT but sometimes you gotta take what your competition gives you. And sometimes your best defense is offense.


Everyone knows that Andy *might* be weakened tomorrow, but they won't know for sure until well into the final climb. The status quo is a winning situation for Evans. He needs to follow whichever Schleck is on the front, but that's not easy when there are two working against you. The question is whether they will send Frank up the road in a reversal of today's strategy - it has some merits but that is a big ask and a big, possibly unnecessary, risk now that Andy is back in front. I think they will come to Alpe d'Huez together, they will all trade attacks, and simply the fastest man up the mountain takes the stage. Then all to play for in the ITT.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

I dunno, I think Evans feels pretty good about his chances against Frank Schleck, but less so against Andy. On a normal day, he should be able to beat AS by well over a minute and take yellow after the ITT. But you can't always count on having a normal day. If Andy looks bad tomorrow, he'd be wise to try to grab some time back, even if he brings Frank along. I think the variable is Frank--when will he attack? I think he will, because they'll want to soften Evans up some more before Saturday.


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## Chainstay (Mar 13, 2004)

NUTT said:


> Pain for certain.
> 
> Jens Voigt & Leopard-Trek push the pace, Frank & Andy trade attacks on the Alpe d'Huez; they are racing Cadel Evans and not worried about Voeckler or Contador. Neither Voekler nor Contador will be able to bridge the gap on an attack & it will be Andy, Frank, Cadel.
> 
> ...



That's exactly what I'm afraid of. I don't want to see Cadel finish second a third time. He did so much today and everyone including the yellow jersey sat on his wheel.

Maybe Cadel will get some help tomorrow. Basso should be strong and Contador should recover. Some guys owe him favours


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## izzyfly (Jul 10, 2009)

*Recovery as a function of age.*



llama31 said:


> I dunno, I think Evans feels pretty good about his chances against Frank Schleck, but less so against Andy. On a normal day, he should be able to beat AS by well over a minute and take yellow after the ITT. But you can't always count on having a normal day. If Andy looks bad tomorrow, he'd be wise to try to grab some time back, even if he brings Frank along. I think the variable is Frank--when will he attack? I think he will, because they'll want to soften Evans up some more before Saturday.


But when AS attacked it wasn't until Evans was about 3 and some odd minutes gaped that Cuddles woke up and did a blistering chase up. All that catching up - with a big gear has to take a toll, he was basically breaking the headwind, and pulling TV and everyone else up. So who's more cooked after stage 18, Cuddles, or AS? - I think age (how old, or young) these two guys are may be factor on their recovery for tomorrow's stage.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Chainstay said:


> Maybe Cadel will get some help tomorrow. Basso should be strong and Contador should recover. Some guys owe him favours


I think only Voeckler owes any kind of favor to Cadel. Their interests are somewhat aligned anyway (to keep up with the Schlecks). The other GC teams will be looking to take advantage of whatever situation they can to defend their positions or move up.


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## SeeVee (Sep 25, 2005)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Rest day I said Andy and Cadel, that's still the case. Best guess? I think Andy tried to grab the race by the throat today. If he is not in complete survival mode tomorrow, he will try again for sure. Leopard-Trek tries the bridge tactic again on the last climb. *I say they send Frank up the road if they can can manage it *and try to get Andy to attack up to that support and re-evaluate.
> 
> But, again, best guess, Andy and Cadel finish within 30 second of each other. All other GC action behind those two. Coin flip on which is on the upside of that margin.
> 
> TV cracks by the middle of the last climb, which will be sad.


No way in HELL is the peleton going to let Frank get off the front.


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## ohvrolla (Aug 2, 2009)

Tomorrow will be interesting. Voeckler has a real shot at a podium and I think would chase Frank which helps Cadel. Contador could have a good day, put in a couple minutes on Voeckler, and with the time trial would be enough to pass Voeckler and probably Frank to get on the podium. Would think Frank would have to mark any move by Contador because of that. Evans and Andy will mark anything the other does, so I think we're down to several dynamics that will play out tomorrow.

Worst thing about tomorrow, I'm working 7:00am to 7:30pm Fri-Sun this weekend.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Sammy.*

Sammy.

Everyone rounds up in a circle to conduct the assassination of each other, and shoots successfully.

Sammy Sanchez emerges from the smoke and pedals to podium.

Fit Voeckler in if you want: France would love a win, and authorities might look the other way if Voeckler happened to take a shot of Floyd Landis' whiskey tonite.


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## tricycletalent (Apr 2, 2005)

NUTT said:


> Pain for certain.
> 
> Jens Voigt & Leopard-Trek push the pace, Frank & Andy trade attacks on the Alpe d'Huez; they are racing Cadel Evans and not worried about Voeckler or Contador. Neither Voekler nor Contador will be able to bridge the gap on an attack & it will be Andy, Frank, Cadel.
> 
> ...


This is what they all fear is gonna happen, and Cunego, Tommy D, Tommy V, Taaramae, Uran Uran are all just gonna sit and hope that their closest on GC will have a shitty day. 

Contador and Sammy lost today. They both know that winning the TT against the likes of Hagen, who has saved himself for the TT, Cancellara, and the rest is totally implausible. They will NOT wait if they have the legs, they have way too much time to make up, and they know that BOTH Schlecks are unlikely to have a bad day simultaneously. They both don't give a f0ck about the minor placings, and they will both be heavily disappointed in the end about how they had to race due to that initial crash. They will attack Landis-style early, and put a lot of exciting pressure on the race. Liquigas and Lampre will do Leopard's job at chasing them down.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

SeeVee said:


> No way in HELL is the peleton going to let Frank get off the front.



On the last climb they might not have a choice. And in any case, any move on the last climb by Frank assumes he will be caught, and Andy will come over the top when that happens. That's kind of the point of sending him, to force people to track him down.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

ohvrolla said:


> Tomorrow will be interesting. Voeckler has a real shot at a podium and I think would chase Frank which helps Cadel. Contador could have a good day, put in a couple minutes on Voeckler, and with the time trial would be enough to pass Voeckler and probably Frank to get on the podium. Would think Frank would have to mark any move by Contador because of that. Evans and Andy will mark anything the other does, so I think we're down to several dynamics that will play out tomorrow.
> 
> Worst thing about tomorrow, I'm working 7:00am to 7:30pm Fri-Sun this weekend.


I think some assumptions are off IMHO

1) aside from one stage (where Voeckler managed to hang on), Contador has not showed me he can outclimb Voeckler in this tour. I keep killing off Voeckler climbing stage after climbing stage and guess what?... He is still up there. Unbelievable.

2) Frank won't kill himself covering for a podium position. It's either win or bust (for him or his bro). He might cover Contador to help his bro, but not for a podium position.

I see few scenarios. Frank attacks early in the hope that Evans tows Andy up and sets up a counter attack. Frank plays super domestique and stays with Andy till the last 5km. Evans has a "luxury" that he can sit and react. Status quo would be great for him. The schleck bros need 1:00 (A) or 2:00 (F). Contador might go for broke if he feels good because Andy and evans still have to cover him.


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## nickl75 (May 5, 2010)

*Descent of the Galibier*

What is the decent of the Galibier like? Maybe Voeckler, Contodor & Sanchez attack the Schlecks on the descent. If Voeckler could get a couple of minutes there he might be able to defend a podium position, and Sanchez & Contodor might still be hoping to get onto the podium too. 

It's not far from the end of the descent to the start of Alpe-d'Huez. If they (and Evans) got away then I'd expect Evans to win the tour (and maybe the stage too).


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

fornaca68 said:


> Cunego wins the stage. Andy picks up another 25 seconds on Evans.


Cunego did not impress me so far. He never did anything. Just sayin'.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

nickl75 said:


> What is the decent of the Galibier like?


We saw it on the climb today, and it is a pretty typical Alpine descent - some tight bends, some steep parts near the top, but not overly technical. However, once they make the right turn it is a long gradual downhill towards the Alpe. This is not the kind of descent where you can stretch out a significant lead ... if you are being chased in anger. I think there will be some testing on the climb, but it will all be together at the bottom of the Alpe amongst the few remaining GC contenders.


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## jwcurry83 (Jun 21, 2010)

Leopard Trek is not finished IMO... I am beginning to think that they were playing with everyone in the Pyrenees just to launch these explosive attacks on the two toughest days of racing in the Alps. I think we are going to see the final parts of the plans unfold tomorrow that are going to lead the Schleck's to the podium in Paris.


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## kiwiiceberg (Aug 6, 2006)

BMC replicate Leopard Trek, two guys in the break, Evans attacks on the second to last climb, gets the gap and holds on up Alp DHuez. Schlecks, Voekler etc finish together 30 seconds down.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

I think that long descent down the Galibier could be key. If there's a good steakhouse in Modane, AC might attack up the Galibier. The Schlecks won't attack on the way up it because any advantage they gain will be lost when TV, AC, CE and SS come steamrolling down the other side. Cadel may attack on the descent and go for the stage win if he feels good. He needs a lead on the Schlecks at the bottom of the Alp, because they're going to attack for all they're worth on the last climb. Certainly, he's not going to let anyone get away tomorrow.

A big problem for Cadel is that he doesn't have enough acceleration to drop TV, TV won't pull at gunpoint, and TV is kind of an unknown quantity as a ITT guy. I don't think he was kidding when he told an interviewer he thinks people are underestimating TV.


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## nOOky (Mar 20, 2009)

I think A.S. is shot, his brother will stay with him to pace him along. Sanchez will attack, A.C. will follow for the heck of it, Cadel will stay with them, and Frank will be faced with the decision to stay with his brother or attack them himself, and seal his brothers doom with a stage win.
T.V. will possibly stay with the lead group and retain yellow one last day.
A.S. will ride one of his better ITT's the following day, but it won't be enough and Cadel should be in yellow.
By the end of the day:
1. Cadel
2. A. Schleck
3. F. Schleck or T.V.

All of this depends on how shot A. Schleck is of course


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## Cygnus (Nov 26, 2004)

*i said this a few days ago:*

"i believe it's too early to give up on andy and frank."

http://forums.roadbikereview.com/showthread.php?t=255611

everybody was raging on andy at the time. 

maybe the only thing you can expect is the unexpected.

of course, the smart money is on evans given his TT prowess over those ahead of him, but he burned a bit to cut into andy's lead today. tomorrow's mt stage will be interesting.


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## ilmaestro (May 3, 2008)

llama31 said:


> Here's a question? What if Andy looks to be struggling tomorrow , paying for his efforts today? Should Evans then attack? He may prefer to preserve some energy for the TT but sometimes you gotta take what your competition gives you. And sometimes your best defense is offense.


Evans is probably going to be feeling it tomorrow too.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

NUTT said:


> Pain for certain.
> 
> Jens Voigt & Leopard-Trek push the pace, Frank & Andy trade attacks on the Alpe d'Huez; they are racing Cadel Evans and not worried about Voeckler or Contador. Neither Voekler nor Contador will be able to bridge the gap on an attack & it will be Andy, Frank, Cadel.
> 
> ...


looks very plausible, I was thinking the same thing - could have written very similar post. I think time gaps to Voeckler and Contador will be smaller though. 1-2 min


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## ilmaestro (May 3, 2008)

Evans attacks. Voeckler and Frank Schleck follow him, Contador looks weak and drops off a bit. Andy drops off a bit too, but the top 3 remain Voeckler, AS, FS.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Here's my prediction for tomorrow - I will be up at 6am PDT to watch the stage.

Versus is at 5am, and should have live race coverage from the very start at 5:30am. There'll be plenty of ads for me to fast forward through before catching up with the live coverage.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I think someone in a breakaway will win the stage. Maybe Egoi Martinez or Remy DiGregorio.

I think the major players will have a "piano" day tomorrow because of the effort it took to get through the Galibier stage. It's possible that someone like Contador or Sammy Sanchez might have sat up to conserve their legs for the Alpe. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Frank win it again.


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## Wildcard (Apr 29, 2011)

alright lets get this show on the road!!


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Ugh, I won't have time to see this stage till tomorrow 

Evans needs 30 seconds on Andy, but unless Andy is blown, I doubt he'll get it. If Evans stays with Andy, he may have enough juice left to do the ITT of his life. The next couple of days are going to be 'edge of your seat' days, like yesterday was.

If Voeckler is able to hold onto yellow today - I will be amazed, I'm sure Andy wants the yellow jersey for the ITT to give him some wings!


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

cadel on his off day?


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

And Phils commet " how is Alberto so well today and so bad yesterday?" Floyd anybody?


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## Wildcard (Apr 29, 2011)

Go Aberto!!


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

I think I just read that TV hung on but Frank Schleck got dropped. Ok...


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Little update for friends with no feed...

OH - MY - WORD

20km in - small break on the front @ 2:00. Contador launched a bomb at the feet of the climb and blew up the peloton. Initially, A Schleck bridged. Then Evans/Frank and finally Voeckler. Not content, Contador took 3 deep breath and launched again, this time he dropped Frank... Evans/Andy/Voeckler hanging on. Cunego OTB. Basso in no-man's-land.

Break @ 1:00 now. Contador attack annihilated Leopard's team and chiefly Frank is out of the picture. It's going to be mano y mano y mano y mano until the end... No help, no domestique driving it up to the end.

I thought initially the Contador attack helped Andy by softening Cadel, but now Andy has no help at all...


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

slowdave said:


> And Phils commet " how is Alberto so well today and so bad yesterday?"



Bad days are followed by good days all the time, and let's keep in mind it is early in the stage. Going from "doing well" to cracked usually doesn't happen on the first climb of the day.

The move though, that blew me away. It totally made no sense. Unless maybe he has a Spanish coalition up in the break? In any case, way to at least throw down, even if it does lead to a burn out at the base of the last climb of the tour. He looks good... now. 

Cadel now has another man with him, dropped back from the break. Good move that, given the pace Contador is dishing out.


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## Wildcard (Apr 29, 2011)

Contandor, AS, CE, TV just powering on!!


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## matchmaker (Aug 15, 2009)

WTF Alberto attacks on the foot of the first climb! Man this is going to be a total slugfest. They are going to have to hit it hard for three climbs in a row. That means anything is possible.

I wonder why they just didn't let Alberto take a minute or so on the climb before reeling him in on the descent. Making the race this hard from the start is no benefit to the real podium contenders.

Alberto sure blows up the whole race with this manoever. I am thinking he must be like: "Well, if I can't win this, I am going to make the others suffer at least".


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## Wildcard (Apr 29, 2011)

Cadel has issues and now has to be paced back


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## matchmaker (Aug 15, 2009)

This is crazy. Evans can't follow and we are only in the first kilometers of this stage. What a coup by Alberto. But maybe he is helping Schleck unconsciously.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

OH - MY - WORD part deux?

Spanish Inquistion on riders form... CONTADOR attacks again. A Schleck on his wheel. Voeckler is spat out and Evans slowed down to a crawl.

Evans stopped and checked his rear wheel. Then Stopped and checked... 3rd stop for a bike change. +0:30 down now.


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## matchmaker (Aug 15, 2009)

Voelkler dropped. Evans seemingly having mechanical problems. Alberto with a crazy move blew up the race. Man this is great. This will be epic.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Cadel needs to work with Basso to reel in the Yellow... and get Europcar involved in the chase. I actually think Voeckler should drop back to the peloton. There is a long run in after the next climb, so there is plenty of time to catch them up while conserving energy.

Patience is the play right now for the chasers. Tempo. Measured effort over a long time.


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## Tshea1 (Jul 17, 2011)

Contador looking strong early no one could have thought after how poor he looked at the end yesterday that he would attack on the first climb and cadel falls behind after having to stop and check his back wheel... nor schleck or contador stopped to play fair ....interesting. Frank dropped on the first climb building up for a great finish


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

Interesting that AS is following Contador with a 4:30 lead on him. He may want to conserve some energy for the TT.

Also interesting that the lead headline on CyclingNews is that Contador's TdF hopes were dashed on the Galibier...maybe not....


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

llama31 said:


> Interesting that AS is following Contador with a 4:30 lead on him. He may want to conserve some energy for the TT.
> 
> Also interesting that the lead headline on CyclingNews is that Contador's TdF hopes were dashed on the Galibier...maybe not....


Any time he can put on Evans, he'll take. Every minute he takes on Evans is one more minute buffer he can take into the ITT.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

matchmaker said:


> Evans seemingly having mechanical problems.


He switched bikes, wonder what the issue was. 

Worse, he stopped twice, once to check it, once to switch bikes.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Cadel needs to work with Basso to reel in the Yellow... and get Europcar involved in the chase. I actually think Voeckler should drop back to the peloton. There is a long run in after the next climb, so there is plenty of time to catch them up while conserving energy.
> 
> Patience is the play right now for the chasers. Tempo. Measured effort over a long time.


Commentators on eurosport are saying the same. Drop back. Gather up and drive. Leekygas/bmc/euskatel would be interested in bringing the gap down.

Good news : switched to ipad for rbr!

Bad news : have to leave in about 30min with 30 mins travel time [email protected]&$


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## matchmaker (Aug 15, 2009)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Cadel needs to work with Basso to reel in the Yellow... and get Europcar involved in the chase. I actually think Voeckler should drop back to the peloton. There is a long run in after the next climb, so there is plenty of time to catch them up while conserving energy.
> 
> Patience is the play right now for the chasers. Tempo. Measured effort over a long time.


The descent of the Telegraph is quite short, not really enough to reel in the breakaway.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

matchmaker said:


> The descent of the Telegraph is quite short, not really enough to reel in the breakaway.


I was speaking to the next climb and subsequent descent, not the Telegraph descent. Sorry if I was ambiguous.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

ColdRider said:


> Any time he can put on Evans, he'll take. Every minute he takes on Evans is one more minute buffer he can take into the ITT.


Yeah, and Contador is doing most of the work, but not all of it. But there's a long way to go, with a long descent. I'm not sure it was worth following contador but whatever.


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

And with the chasing and breaking away that has gone on today and yesterday. The real question is who will have the legs to smash out 42km on rolling terrain at 45km+


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

slowdave said:


> And with the chasing and breaking away that has gone on today and yesterday. The real question is who will have the legs to smash out 42km on rolling terrain at 45km+


Cancellara or Martin?


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

llama31 said:


> Yeah, and Contador is doing most of the work, but not all of it. But there's a long way to go, with a long descent. I'm not sure it was worth following contador but whatever.


Both Evans and Schleck were with Contador in the beginning, are you suggesting Schleck should have sat up????


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

slowdave said:


> And with the chasing and breaking away that has gone on today and yesterday. The real question is who will have the legs to smash out 42km on rolling terrain at 45km+


Exactly. I think AS should have let Contador go...the chances of staying away from Evans on the descent of the Galibier were not good and he wasted some energy trying, energy he'll need tomorrow. Evans is now catching back up. I think he can drop Evans on the Alpe and gain another 30-60 sec there. He should have just waited for that. But maybe he's feeling really good and didn't feel like he was digging too deep to stay with Contador.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

den bakker said:


> Both Evans and Schleck were with Contador in the beginning, are you suggesting Schleck should have sat up????


I definitely think he should have done no work...he took some pulls. There's just no point with a long descent...the odds of Evans chasing back on are high. And that's what he's doing. With the efforts of yesterday and the TT tomorrow, these guys need to be smart about how they use energy.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

llama31 said:


> I definitely think he should have done no work...he took some pulls. There's just no point with a long descent...the odds of Evans chasing back on are high. And that's what he's doing. With the efforts of yesterday and the TT tomorrow, these guys need to be smart about how they use energy.


Yes Andy took some pulls. On the other hand Cadels team was blown to bits, Cadel had to jump on the climb, which hurts, and has to do most of the work on the descent catching up. All the time while Frank is tugged in nicely for an early attack on Huez Cadel _has_ to cover.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

> Yes Andy took some pulls. On the other hand Cadels team was blown to bits, Cadel had to jump on the climb, which hurts, and has to do most of the work on the descent catching up. All the time while Frank is tugged in nicely for an early attack on Huez Cadel _has_ to cover.


True. Seize the opportunity when it comes I guess.


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

and its all together now


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

This has to be set up for frank, who has sat wheels for 2 days, BUT he did get dropped on the first climb of the day....


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

I'd love to see Evans take this stage, not likely given that he's not an explosive rider, but that would be a sweet win going into the TT


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

This has to be set up for frank, who has sat wheels for 2 days, BUT he did get dropped on the first climb of the day....


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

Is Cadel attacking and getting time?


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

Alberto!


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

Could the French win their stage?


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