# How do you see this TDF playing out?



## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

So for Evans to win, he will need to take 3 1/2 to 4 minutes out of Wiggins, and 1 1/2 to 2 minutes out of Fromme between now and the last ITT (assuming that today's performance repeats itself in that ITT. 

1.) So how does that happen? Where does that happen?

Only 2 Mountain finishes left (11 and 17).......so you would think the Wiggins crack has to occur there.

Unless Both Wiggins and Fromme have burned most of their matches, it's hard to see Evans better than third........

Anybody see a credible scenario?

Len


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Evans doesn't necessarily have to rely on mountain finishes to win, because he descends better than Wiggins also. 

So he could, for example, break on the last mountain of 14, and hold off Wiggins to the end of the stage.










Same for stage 16


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Stage 10 Wednesday could suit Evans also. If sky can keep the man-train going for two more weeks, its going to be tough for Evans to gain time.

But he fights, and I expect he will be putting the pressure on if/when sky eases up on the tempo riding.

I bet Evans and Nibali are going to consider ganging up for their own mutual benefit to try to get an edge on sky.


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## Unica (Sep 24, 2004)

gusmahler said:


> Evans doesn't necessarily have to rely on mountain finishes to win, because he descends better than Wiggins also.
> 
> So he could, for example, break on the last mountain of 14, and hold off Wiggins to the end of the stage.


There's no way Cuddles could take out that much time on the descents, unless Wiggo crashes.

There's 40 odd KM's from the top of the Peguere to the finish as well, so even if he did get time on the descent, Sky have enough distance to chase him down.

What we saw today wasn't Wiggo winning the Tour, but Evans losing it.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

gusmahler said:


> Evans doesn't necessarily have to rely on mountain finishes to win, because he descends better than Wiggins also.
> 
> So he could, for example, break on the last mountain of 14, and hold off Wiggins to the end of the stage.
> 
> ...


 
Both of those are a long way to hold a lead on a descent. How technical are those descents?

Len


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

Evans can't get that much time back on his own. Wiggins would have to crash or have an absolutely disastrous bonk. Evans may be able to apply enough pressure to make Froome use himself up defending Wiggins, but I think even that is extremely unlikely.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

nate said:


> Evans can't get that much time back on his own. Wiggins would have to crash or have an absolutely disastrous bonk. Evans may be able to apply enough pressure to make Froome use himself up defending Wiggins, but I think even that is extremely unlikely.


That's the way I see it too. 

Hope it tightens up...but not counting on it.

Len


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## superjesus (Jul 26, 2010)

It's looking like it's Wiggins's tour to lose.

I'd like to see Froome and Wiggins duke it out like Contador and Armstong on Astana.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Len J said:


> Both of those are a long way to hold a lead on a descent. How technical are those descents?
> 
> Len


I'm not talking about making a break on the descent. I'm talking making a break on the ascent, then holding the lead through the descent. Wiggins/Froome can catch up if it were flat, maybe not if its a descent. Also not saying it's likely, just that it's possible.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

"Snailstrong" for the win! I really hope someone attacks early on stage 11 and puts some drama into this. Otherwise we're going to see a boring 2 weeks.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

gusmahler said:


> I'm not talking about making a break on the descent. I'm talking making a break on the ascent, then holding the lead through the descent. Wiggins/Froome can catch up if it were flat, maybe not if its a descent. Also not saying it's likely, just that it's possible.


 
I understood your post that way.

Like you say it's possible, but probably a low probability.

It would be fun if he could get a minute here and a minute there.

Len


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

If, IF Wiggins gets isolated on the mtns, I would like to see Evans and Nibali trading attacks. They aren't huge mountain attackers, but that's what it would take to break wiggins. 

IMO.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Len J said:


> I understood your post that way.
> 
> Like you say it's possible, but probably a low probability.
> 
> ...


I think that's right, but I agree, difficult to get much time. Especially since Sky is so strong.

I thought Cadel's experience will put him over Wiggins, but now it seems that the differences in their time trialing is greater than I anticipated (Dauphine was a wake up call, but I thought Evans is peaking for Tour). Considering that Wiggins climbed as well as Cadel so far, and that he has better team, and that he time trials better, barring a crash or an injury, it is difficult to see how Wiggins can lose it right now.

He can even afford a fairly substantial meltdown on one of the climbs but as long as his team is around him, he can limit his losses and still win comfortably. Evans has to attack, and I wonder if his form is as good as Wiggo's. In fact, I begin to wonder of Froome can take 2nd overall now. I used to think Nibali was going to be on podium, but Froome is a better candidate now - better climber AND time trialist. The only question is - how much does he need to sacrifice for Wiggins?


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

foto said:


> I bet Evans and Nibali are going to consider ganging up for their own mutual benefit to try to get an edge on sky.


Yep, I predict some cooperation between BMC and Liquigas during the mountain stages.


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## BassNBrew (Aug 4, 2008)

yellow - over. Two weeks of rather boring racing GC wise. I suspect with the long TT looming everyone has thrown in the towel and will get 2 weeks of training rides in preparation for the Olympics.

green - over. Cav will have to stick around to fetch Wiggins water. Sagen will wrap up the crown prior to the last stage.

polka-dot - will be very interesting and probably the only reason to watch.

team title - RSNT will focus on this to consider the tour a success while no one cares.

white - who cares.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

jorgy said:


> Yep, I predict some cooperation between BMC and Liquigas during the mountain stages.


I don't know, seems to me this sort of cooperation seldom comes to pass. Usually people with a good chance at the podium defend their spot. Given the gap Cadel faces, seems far more likely that he'll cover a Nibali attack than that he'll watch it go. Hope I'm wrong, but seems to me a close race leads to more fireworks.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

I think Cadel would rather DNF trying to win then defend 3rd. How many more tours is he going to ride?


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## raymonda (Jan 31, 2007)

Game over, but I hope not.


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

superjesus said:


> It's looking like it's Wiggins's tour to lose.
> 
> I'd like to see Froome and Wiggins duke it out like Contador and Armstong on Astana.


I think ^this.
the biggest treat to Wiggins is Froome.
I'd like to see Nibali and Evans attack, Froome will be the one most suited to cover in the mountains and if Wiggins gets dropped on a mountain and Froome gets away, look to see fireworks in the team bus  Vuelta #2


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Anything can happen. Ask Ryder or many others. I'm looking forward to a great battle ahead!


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

gusmahler said:


> Evans doesn't necessarily have to rely on mountain finishes to win, because he descends better than Wiggins also.
> 
> So he could, for example, break on the last mountain of 14, and hold off Wiggins to the end of the stage.
> 
> ...



My W.A.G.: Wiggo bonks on the second HC climb or the first cat. 1 climb on Stage 16. That's_ if_ he's clean.

Evans cuts time in half.


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## ohvrolla (Aug 2, 2009)

I like it CDA 455. Stage 16 would be my hunch at getting back some time. Doesn't flatten out near the end like 14 does plus there is enough climbing to put Wiggins in difficulty if Evans IS the better climber of the two.


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

Len J said:


> That's the way I see it too.
> 
> Hope it tightens up...but not counting on it.
> 
> Len


I agree. Without a crash, major collapse or a flat, this is Wiggins rave to loose.
Nibali an Evans should team up, or this could get boring for the next 2 weeks.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

Wiggo and SKY look so strong that I do not see him being isolated. BMC just does not look strong enough to break SKY and Evans can't do it alone.
Stuff happens though, unless Evans can take advantage of a tactical error or somehow Wiggo cracks on a hill it is all but over.


We all know that all it takes to win the tour is a superior training regimen.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

My WAG is a boring two weeks remaining. With Ryder, Danielson and Sanchez out we lost three guys who would take a shot during the mountains that could have put a little pressure on SKY.
Unless RSNT's superior training regimen is better then SKY's I do not see them making any impact.
Who knows though. I would like to see them go for broke.
Maybe Frances will tempo them up a mountain with Horner then Kloden burning it up and leaving Zubeldia, Monfort and Gallopin to try a shot at something.
Outside of Sky and whatever strategy BMC and Liquigas can cobble together they still have the strongest team. They appeared to have some legs on the last mountains, we will find out this week.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

Donning the cape of Captain Obvious, I have to point out that there is an awful lot of hard racing ahead. Many unforeseen things happened in the first week and many more are likely. Until Wiggo proves he can handle big mountain days, and we haven't really had one of those yet, this thing is still very much up for grabs.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

every year i think teams will gang up and every year it doesnt happen. 

wiggo and sky control from here on out. if bmc can force sky to work hard in eth mountains, they might be able to give cadel some support with wiggo alone. but i dont see taht happening. evans might take a stage, but i doubt it. 

let the stage hunting begin!


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## Kneedragon (Jul 27, 2010)

Cadel will take back some time in the high mountains, but Wiggins will crush him in the last TT. Froome is capable of a podium easily (and maybe even the win), but he'll likely lose some time helping Wiggins. Might see a nice battle for the 3rd podium spot between Nibali, Van Den Broeck, and Menchov.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

BassNBrew said:


> yellow - over. Two weeks of rather boring racing GC wise. I suspect with the long TT looming everyone has thrown in the towel and will get 2 weeks of training rides in preparation for the Olympics.
> 
> green - over. Cav will have to stick around to fetch Wiggins water. Sagen will wrap up the crown prior to the last stage.
> 
> ...


agreed, but I actually think white is more important than team title. Never thought much of team title until it started getting more attention recently.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Three sprints left (13, 15, and 20). I predict one each for Goss, Griepel, and Cavendish. Sagan will do well enough to maintain the green jersey lead.


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## Uprwstsdr (Jul 17, 2002)

Cadel's only chance is if Dr. Evil steals Wiggins mojo.


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## MoonHowl (Oct 5, 2008)

Maybe Wiggo will drop his chain


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## flyrunride (May 2, 2012)

I'm hoping some would attack and make this a more exciting race. It would be interesting if the weather turns too, maybe harsh winds or some rain? Not so someone would crash out but to make it more challenging for them tactic wise. We'll see next week if Sky could hold such pace and if/when the rest will attack (they do have to)


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## BassNBrew (Aug 4, 2008)

55x11 said:


> agreed, but I actually think white is more important than team title. Never thought much of team title until it started getting more attention recently.


I mostly agree. The thing about white is that often the best young rider is supporting the team's GC guy and not riding his own race. The jersey usually goes to the best young rider without a gc contender later in the race. I also think the defintion of young is a little broad. Some of these guys are eligible for half of the career.

The team title is a joke imo. We can't win anything of importance so let's latch onto the team title.


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## LesDiablesRouges (Jul 17, 2009)

Seeing as the racers haven't done a HC climb yet it's a bit too early to declare Wiggins the winner. Granted, he's on the best form and the climbing threats aren't great TT'ers save for perhaps Evans. 

It's going to require a crash, bonk or a Merckxian effort barring the remaining teams ganging up to force the action.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

LesDiablesRouges said:


> Seeing as the racers haven't done a HC climb yet it's a bit too early to declare Wiggins the winner.


I hope you're right. I'm not really a fan of either Wiggins or Evans, but I do want the race to be interesting.


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## Squidly (May 17, 2011)

Most seem to think that the battle for yellow is over. Are the time trial stages overvalued? Personally I'd be a lot happier with just 1 TT.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

Squidly said:


> Most seem to think that the battle for yellow is over. Are the time trial stages overvalued? Personally I'd be a lot happier with just 1 TT.


It depends on your perspective.

One of the great things IMO, about the tour is that the course is not the same every year.......and the organizers try to taylor the course to different things each year......some years are brutal climbing years, others have a TTT in them, some years have 2 ITT's some have 1..........

Everyone knew this years course would favor a good TT'er who could also stay with the other leaders in the mountains over someone who was an OK TT'er and a very good climber.

All that said, and as much as I think this is Wigg's and Fromme's TDF to lose the top 2 spots........2 weeks of racing is a long time and effort left....a lot can happen.

One bad day in the mountains, one mechanical at the wrong time, one wreck and everything can change.

Len


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## LesDiablesRouges (Jul 17, 2009)

Squidly said:


> Most seem to think that the battle for yellow is over. Are the time trial stages overvalued? Personally I'd be a lot happier with just 1 TT.


As mentioned above sicne there is variance the answer is no.

Heck they also sometime have a mountain time trial to Alpe D'Huez which is a true test of climbing ability.

The reason TTs have carried more value is the lack of daring attacks. The last inspired attack on Yellow was Floyd Landis in 2006. The TDF has changed from a liberal go for broke approach to a ultra conservative limit your losses and pick up small gains.

Like everyone else I'm hoping that the big lead early will force those chasing Sky to go big offensives rather than trying to protect podium places.

If not I'd like to see what the young guns can do.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

LesDiablesRouges said:


> As mentioned above sicne there is variance the answer is no.
> 
> Heck they also sometime have a mountain time trial to Alpe D'Huez which is a true test of climbing ability.
> 
> ...


Did you miss last year?


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## LesDiablesRouges (Jul 17, 2009)

foto said:


> Did you miss last year?



No attack stood out to me so you'll have to refresh my memory.

EDit Scratch that: Jelle Vanendert's effort was special as was Pierre Rolland's attack but neither were real GC threats.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Andy Schleck, Galibier.


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## ohvrolla (Aug 2, 2009)

juno said:


> My WAG is a boring two weeks remaining. With Ryder, Danielson and Sanchez out we lost three guys who would take a shot during the mountains that could have put a little pressure on SKY.
> Unless RSNT's superior training regimen is better then SKY's I do not see them making any impact.
> Who knows though. I would like to see them go for broke.
> Maybe Frances will tempo them up a mountain with Horner then Kloden burning it up and leaving Zubeldia, Monfort and Gallopin to try a shot at something.
> Outside of Sky and whatever strategy BMC and Liquigas can cobble together they still have the strongest team. They appeared to have some legs on the last mountains, we will find out this week.


All BS'n aside, Radioshanty do look to have a squad to launch Zubeldia or Monfort. Both are top ten in GC and put in respectable rides in the time trial so why not.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

LesDiablesRouges said:


> No attack stood out to me so you'll have to refresh my memory.
> 
> EDit Scratch that: Jelle Vanendert's effort was special as was Pierre Rolland's attack but neither were real GC threats.


I think he is referring to Andy Schleck's attack.

Evans managed to chase it down close enough to catch Andy in the ITT but it was an all out go for broke long distance attack that did help Andy get into yellow, albeit briefly.


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## austincrx (Oct 22, 2008)

It's obvious so far that Wiggins is not trying to attack on any mountains, there are not sky men in the break, and his riding style is really not suited to an attack so much as just churning out a fast, steady pace up a climb. So if Evans has men up the road, then maybe he's planning to attack like Schleck did last year, maybe on the 2nd to last climb, and bridge to his men in the break, then use them to take him up the last climb, where he'll try to get away and hold a gap on the decent to the finish.

In my head it makes sense, but it all depends on if he can get away from the Sky train or not.


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## LesDiablesRouges (Jul 17, 2009)

thechriswebb said:


> I think he is referring to Andy Schleck's attack.
> 
> Evans managed to chase it down close enough to catch Andy in the ITT but it was an all out go for broke long distance attack that did help Andy get into yellow, albeit briefly.


Thanks, apparently my brain has gone to mush as I forgot about that one.


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## LesDiablesRouges (Jul 17, 2009)

austincrx said:


> It's obvious so far that Wiggins is not trying to attack on any mountains, there are not sky men in the break, and his riding style is really not suited to an attack so much as just churning out a fast, steady pace up a climb. So if Evans has men up the road, then maybe he's planning to attack like Schleck did last year, maybe on the 2nd to last climb, and bridge to his men in the break, then use them to take him up the last climb, where he'll try to get away and hold a gap on the decent to the finish.
> 
> In my head it makes sense, but it all depends on if he can get away from the Sky train or not.


No reason for Wiggins to attack. He's going to take at least one minute from his GC rivals on the next TT save for perhaps Froome, and he's already well out in front by nearly 2 minutes.

I don't think Evans can sit around waiting for the perfect time to attack. I think he really blew a good opportunity to gain time. Granted, maybe JVDB doesn't pick up that 40 seconds if Evans goes along with him. 

If Evans wants to win this race he's going to need to make serious attacks in every mountain stage until the end.


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

MoonHowl said:


> Maybe Wiggo will drop his chain


I hope not.

Not the famous Schleck-Conti event again.


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

MoonHowl said:


> Maybe Wiggo will drop his chain


is it easier to drop a chain on an elliptical chain ring


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## Guest (Jul 12, 2012)

vismitananda said:


> I hope not.
> 
> Not the famous Schleck-Conti event again.


Didn't Andy Schleck still win* that race?


I've had fairly limited vieweship of the TDF (I followed the last half of last year's race, this year, and last half of 2006 -- at that time I wasn't a cyclist but had a roommate that was into it), but it does seem like the race for CG is disproportionately determined by time-trial results. 

Seems like this could be different if more teams were willing to form alliances (ie this year Evans/Nibali/Radioshack guys). While I could understand some teams don't want to help out opposing riders, wouldn't it be better for someone to "assist" an opponent in winning an end in 2nd when the alternative is you and your potential ally get 3rd/4th (no particular order)?

The other thing is if the stages were designed to encourage more attacks such as more finishes on mountaintops, or immediately after descents (offering less flatland for the peloton to regain on the breaks).


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

PhotonFreak said:


> Didn't Andy Schleck still win* that race?
> 
> 
> I've had fairly limited vieweship of the TDF (I followed the last half of last year's race, this year, and last half of 2006 -- at that time I wasn't a cyclist but had a roommate that was into it), but it does seem like the race for CG is disproportionately determined by time-trial results.
> ...


It was Thomas Voeckler who won that 15th stage to be exact. But still Andy Shcleck has won the overall, coz after that Coni was banned.

Yes it is possible to form alliances between rivals, but later on in the race those riders will attack each other to aim for the GC. I suppose their sponsors want them to win the overall, not just finished in the top 10 or podium places. That's why director sportiff send their best riders on this kind of race to support their respective leaders to win. This will also show how strong your team is, competing w/ other potential riders.


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