# Tour predictions



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

That's my podium for the Tour

1. Tyler. Considering the circumstances last year and him placing 4th, how well he's riding this year, and how strong his team looks, it looks like it might be his time. I'm gonna suggest below that LA has lost a step because of age, and I know Tyler's as old or older, but he started late, so my theory is he doesn't have as much mileage on his legs.

2. Lance. I think age is catching up to him a bit. He's still too strong on the TTs and hills for anyone but Tyler (I think he puts Jan in more distress on hills this year than Jan does to him on flat TTs, and the flat TTs and team TT will hurt Mayo more than he can make up in the hills).

3. Mayo. He might be gearing up to be the next dominating rider, but for now, I think he falls too far short in ITTs and TTTs. Needs a better team around him to take the overall. It's very possible Jan takes this spot, but I like Mayo to win a couple of mountain stages and just edge him out.

No real revelations here, but I guess it's time to really start speculating. There's already a lot of talk happening in other threads, so it might as well have its own thread. I'm interested to see what everyone thinks.


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*predictions...*

cause there is already a thread for Tour predictions...but no one has updated for 3 weeks. Lately, we've been nit picking rider by rider while we armchair quarterback...

But, yes, things are getting more interesting...of the contenders and pretenders, June is showing that only Beloki is clearly way off our expectations (not that we are experts...)

Is it July yet?


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## Italophile (Jun 11, 2004)

*I'd like to agree, jptaylorsg!*

I think the standings in the Dauphine-Libere show what kind of team Tyler has around him! U.S. Postal is still great, and everything they do is geared toward winning the Tour, but the rest of the cycling world is focused on beating Lance at least once! Tyler is the one with the most experience, toughness, and knowledge of Lance's strengths and weaknesses. 

But I think the only thing that can stop Lance from getting #6 is Lance himself. As strong and determined as Tyler is -- I absolutely _love_ the guy! -- Lance is the most obsessive trainer on Earth, can out-TT and outclimb him by just enough, and Postal will commit suicide to get him the win.

I don't care which one wins, since I love them both! But I certainly want Tyler to win at least one TDF before he quits.

As for third place, I would have said Beloki, but it doesn't look good, does it? Very sad, IMO, since he was a real challenger last year when he went down. Ullrich and Vinukourov are on the same team, aren't they? That hurts both of them, though Vinukourov is the more likely podium figure. The way Saeco did the Giro, it is obvious that Simoni is aiming at greater glory in the Tour, but he is not the man on flat ground to do it, and he is no Pantani (may he rest in peace) in the mountains. There will be some surprisingly strong rides from some back-burner riders this year (Bobby Julich?), but Mayo is probably the next great Tour rider. (...Until Cunego matures -- which will be pretty dang soon!)

Thus, I predict:

1. Lance (What the heck will he do when his racing days are over? He'll go mad within six months!)
2. Tyler (Don't quit yet, boy!)
3. Mayo (or somebody else!)

Dino


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## soulsurfer104 (Jun 30, 2003)

*hard to say*

who should be keeping Lance awake at night and why (in order)....

1.) Ullrich- because we have all written him off as fat and slow this year, and i think this is just what he wants. i predict jan will show up lean and mean in july and catch everybody off-guard. 

2.) Hamilton- because if the guy can finish 4th with a major injury like that, imagine what kind of damage he could do riding at full strength. 

3.) Vino- because alex does everything well. he can climb, descend, TT, and sprint....all equally well. he is very versatile and can attack anywhere. 

4.) Mayo- not as much of a threat because he is a pure climber and eats dust on any road that isn't going uphill......but still, he DOES climb stunningly well. 

I want to see Lance win it again. He is a worthy six-time Tour champion, more so than anybody else. I would like to see Lance in 1st, Hamilton in 2nd, and Ullrich in 3rd. Vino and Mayo and Beloki can all fight over 4th. 

Lance, don't get lazy on us. Fight like you have before. Make 'em suffer in the mountains.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

*Not LA*

Lance will not win this year. No matter what everyone says I don't think winning the Tour de Georgia is a worthy gauge of his fitness. Maybe Tyler, maybe Ullrich. Not Mayo though, and not Heras. The long time trial will put them both out of contention.


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## Italophile (Jun 11, 2004)

*Yeah, but that TT is up the Alpe d'Huez!*

That is why a Mayo or Simone might not lose the time he normally would on the TT stage, and that is why Ullrich will not gain the time he normally would! Tyler and Lance, on the other hand, will thrive on that killer TT. Ullrich will not crack the top 5 in this Tour, IMO.

Dino


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

Italophile said:


> That is why a Mayo or Simone might not lose the time he normally would on the TT stage, and that is why Ullrich will not gain the time he normally would! Tyler and Lance, on the other hand, will thrive on that killer TT. Ullrich will not crack the top 5 in this Tour,


You are forgetting about the Besancon TT. This is 60 km. Ulle will kill the competition there.

Ullrich will not lose much, if any, time on LA during the Alpe d'Huez TT. Given that it can be ridden at a constant power output without worrying about attacks, Ullrich will do very well.

The only way Ullrich doesn't podium is if he crashes out.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

I predict Jan Ullrich will win.

Actually that should read more like I want Jan Ullrich to win. I will dance in the streets if he wins. He is focused. He is strong. He is training early and on his own terms. He's got a great team. He is motivated.

Last year, he had nothing going for him and had a sideshow for a team. And look what he did... seconds away from the win. If his team time trial didn't cost him a couple minutes he would have been ahead.

He also showed me that he can fight in the mountains. And on level ground or rollers, he is way faster than Lance.

I'm hearing Vino and Salvodelli are out of T-mobile. I'm very, very upset about this.

If Lance wins, I'll be happy and given the competition, and 6 tours, I'll crown him greatest cyclist of all time. Yeah, that's right Eddy.

francois


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## glavint (Jun 10, 2004)

*Alpe d"Huez question*



Utah CragHopper said:


> You are forgetting about the Besancon TT. This is 60 km. Ulle will kill the competition there.
> 
> Ullrich will not lose much, if any, time on LA during the Alpe d'Huez TT. Given that it can be ridden at a constant power output without worrying about attacks, Ullrich will do very well.
> 
> The only way Ullrich doesn't podium is if he crashes out.


Quick question - won't the hairpin turns on the Alpe d'Huez force riders to change their power output? I don't mean this to say that JU won't do well there, more just a point of interest. I've never ridden it, but it would seem like those turns would almost force a rider to have to be constantly changing rhythm, cadence, position etc...?


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*! Vino, The Falcon now Tobias Steinhauser! Jan will racing by himself*



francois said:


> I predict Jan Ullrich will win.
> 
> Actually that should read more like I want Jan Ullrich to win. I will dance in the streets if he wins. He is focused. He is strong. He is training early and on his own terms. He's got a great team. He is motivated.
> 
> ...



in July I think. unless Botero can show some killer 2002 form.


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## carbonfred (May 26, 2004)

*do the math*

I think tour predictions should be begin with the time gaps seen last year. Lance does not seem as strong as '99-02, but doesn't seem weaker than last year and may actually be a bit better off than last year. Let's take rider by rider

#2 last year: Ullrich: he narrowed the gap a lot last year based on losing less time in the mountains and dominating the first time trial. He was winning the last time trial but not by much before he crashed. This year one long time trial has been cut in favor of the Alp d'Huez TT. That works in Lance's favor. Prediction: Ullrich 2 min behind LA.

#3 last year: Vinokourov: out this year

#4 last year: Hamilton. Sentimental choice but 6:17 behind LA last year. Where is he going to get those 6 minutes? Even if he outperforms LA on Alp d'Huez to the same margin as Mt. Ventoux, that would be approx 1 min given that ADH is shorter. Give him another 3 minutes for better fitness this year and no injuries (let's hope). That still leaves him 2 minutes short. I don't see the math for him winning.

#5-6: Zubeldia and Mayo were 6-7 minutes behind. Mayo may be the dominant climber now but he seemed so last year too. I don't see where he going to get those 7 minutes. He will lose less in the team time trial and gain instead of lose on the ADH TT, but that won't add up to 7 minutes, more like 3-4 minutes max. Also he was never really a big GC threat last year and so he was not marked so carefully. This year he will be and if he ever gets yellow, his team will have to really work to protect him, something they have never done. 

DNF: Beloki. Easily could be second or third but his fitness/attitude seem off this year. I look for a team change and a return to the top in 2005.

So in sum, the podium is.....

1. LA
2. Ullrich
3. Hamilton/Mayo


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

glavint said:


> Quick question - won't the hairpin turns on the Alpe d'Huez force riders to change their power output? I don't mean this to say that JU won't do well there, more just a point of interest. I've never ridden it, but it would seem like those turns would almost force a rider to have to be constantly changing rhythm, cadence, position etc...?


Speed has to change power output doesn't. Not to say it will be like a flat TT on a straight road but it's going to be a far cry from trying to respond to the attacks of Mayo and Heras on other climbs. Ullrich will be able to choose the pace he thinks will produce the fastest time. That is generally an even effort.


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*Check the results before...*

Bianchi may not have been a spectacular team, but it was not horrible. Maybe there was no one for support in the high mountains for JU. Maybe the riders were focused on talking to other directors for jobs the next year. But check the results

In the Team Time Trial, here are the results 
1 US Postal presented by Berry Floor 1.18.27 (52.77 km/h)
2 O.N.C.E.-Eroski 0.30
3 Team Bianchi 0.43
4 iBanesto.com 1.05
5 Quick.Step-Davitamon 1.23
6 Team Telekom 1.30

(I hope that shows well.)

The "sideshow team" was only behind USPS *43 seconds*...where is that couple of minutes? Being just *13 seconds * behind a traditional TTT powerhouse like ONCE is a huge accomplishment.

Bianchi put time into Tmobile! Say what you will, but JU was motivated to ride well if he wanted to ride at all (in 2004) and he had a decent enough team (maybe not enough to win, but it was not a joke).


Carbon Fred is half right...you have to start with the defending champion, especially if it is a multiple tour winner...gauge his form and then consider the competition. But, I disagree that it will be that simple...I certainly hope that we have more excitement than that. I hope that we are back here in a month saying how Heras and Mayo have 2-3 minutes on LA/JU from brilliant mountain attacks...but is it enough for the 60k ITT?


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## coreyb (Aug 4, 2003)

il sogno said:


> Lance will not win this year. No matter what everyone says I don't think winning the Tour de Georgia is a worthy gauge of his fitness. Maybe Tyler, maybe Ullrich. Not Mayo though, and not Heras. The long time trial will put them both out of contention.


the TdG may not be a worthy gauge, but then that means you dont have a worthy gauge to tell if he will win or not. futhermore, what is you gauge for Ulrich? you logic is flawed.


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## coreyb (Aug 4, 2003)

looks like no Beloki


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Hey you're right on on Beloki!!! Except DNS.

Maybe, we better pay closer attention to all your other predictions. 

Great analysis btw!! Using last year as a benchmark is elemetary!

francis


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## Italophile (Jun 11, 2004)

*Love the avatar!*

Ja-Zsa!


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## Italophile (Jun 11, 2004)

*Here's how*

With Vino off T-Mobile, Ullrich should get more help, better result than I previously thought. Who else is on that team to help him defend attacks in the mountains? Anyone? Anyone?

Phonak may be a stronger team than T-Mobile, and Tyler may be stronger this season than ever before. He will certainly get more help in the big mountains. If Phonak can stay with the leaders in the TTT, Tyler will finish ahead of Jan.

I lack confidence in Mayo and team on the flat, so I will change my prior prediction from LA,TH,IM, to 

Lance
Tyler
Jan

--And I just hope Joseba Beloki does return next year. He is the victim of bad luck and unsafe road conditions last year, and could very well have deservedly won the TDF some year.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

1) Ullrich
2) Mayo
3) Heras

Green: Boonen
Polka Dot: Virenque

Anybody who shares my thoughts (and hopes) that Armstrong won't win this year, you can get 2 to 1 odds on the Field vs Armstrong at Sportsbook.com. Support those that sponsor cycling!


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## Trevor! (Feb 28, 2004)

I really want to see *Jan* win, and I would have thought he could do it this year, but in the absence of Vinokourov I just don't think that T-Mobil has the ability to keep Jan up there, particularly through the early-mid stages of the race and through the TTT. 

*Lance* Armstrong, though not my favorite rider, has a great chance to take yet another win, he has an automatic advantage of previously wining and wining and wining (you get the picture), and his team is focused like no other in wining the Tour. As somebody quite rightly said they will kill themselves in order to get Lance another win - they will pull out all stops to ensure he's on the podium.

*Tyler* however is who I think is going to be in contention to finish strongly and quite possibly ahead of Lance into first place. If you look at lasts years performance, everything was against him from the first fall, he though the Tour was over but he got a second chance, and continued through the pain to finish in fourth - wow. This year he is with Phonak and we have seen nothing but brilliant performances from the Phonak squad no matter what the event and Tyler has been riding strongly and showing good form preceding this years tour. Furthermore, I think the team shows great determination and strong focus, they seem to be able to get through the Giro fine and I think have the ability to get Tyler onto the Podium and into first. 

In summary I think Tyler can take first, second will between Lance and Jan (My favorite) and finally 3rd will be to whoever loses out on that second and forth......

I think it is Sad that Beloki will not ride the tour, and indeed I think his days will be numbered after this year - Sad..... Vinokourov will be missed too....


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*2-1 ? wow*

for an unprecedented 6th, only 2 contenders are not going to be in form, a single bad day or crash could end any one rider's hopes....2-1 is low for anyone vs. field. Is sportsbook US or Euro like Mr.Bookmaker?


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

mmoose said:


> for an unprecedented 6th, only 2 contenders are not going to be in form, a single bad day or crash could end any one rider's hopes....2-1 is low for anyone vs. field. Is sportsbook US or Euro like Mr.Bookmaker?


Pretty sure they are US, and yes that seems like incredibly good odds. I haven't checked Mr. Bookmaker to see what their odds are right now.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

mmoose said:


> Mr.Bookmaker?


Their odds:
Armstrong 1.7 to 1
Ullrich 3.25 to 1
Hamilton 6 to 1
Mayo 7 to 1
Heras 16 to 1

And nobody else is getting better odds than 40 to 1.
No interesting bets like Field vs. Armstrong, just straight pick the winner.


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## coreyb (Aug 4, 2003)

Dwayne Barry said:


> 2 to 1 odds on the Field vs Armstrong


looks like it might be field vs armstrong&ulrich


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## BBunny (Jun 16, 2004)

*Tour De Georgia*

*Tour De Georgia* I wouldn't discount this tour. I live in Atlanta and the 'hills' around here are nothing to sneeze at. The local who won the mtn stage trained on it constantly. Lance works hard... all year long, unlike Jan who seems to let himself go during the winter. The difference is Lance loves the bike, the love isn't there, at least to that degree for Jan. I agree with another poster who wondered what Lance would do after the bike...go crazy. I'm sure he'll put all that energy into promote cycling in the states and continue his cancer support. Greg L. needs to find something better to do than critize Lance.


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## RedMenace (Jan 28, 2004)

*Psychology.*

Which is what I think this year's race will come down to.

Tyler: Seems to ride best when he can exceed expectations. A quirk in his nature. Does best when things are going wrong. His best shot at a podium is an early crash that will have everyone saying: "Poor Tyler ... No way he can win now, with that splintered femur sticking through his shorts." If that happens early, look out. To defend Lance, USPS should surround Tyler and take care of him at all times. Given a clear, clean, uneventful Tour, he'll end up 12th.

Ullrich: He's got the 2nd place mojo going in his head. If he were 5 minutes up with one lap to go on the Champs Elysees, he's do a mystifying phantom endo to lose just enough time to wind up in his longed-for 2nd place.

Mayo: When push comes to shove, he still wonders if his ****'s too short to ride with the big boys. He's about to discover that he's perfectly well hung, but not this year. Eyeball to eyeball, he'll doubt and he'll blink. Give him 3rd and get out of his way. This is the last year he'll defer to the silverbacks.

Lance: Winner's mojo and a Texas mean streak (which will re-emerge this year, late, when his back seems nailed to the wall) will carry his old, tired legs to one more win. I think he's weary of the Tour psychologically, but his ego's bigger than his weariness, and he hasn't come this far this year to come unwound like a cheap toy on the side of some godforsaken mountain like Eddy M. did when he tried for six. Not in the cards. His future is not in France, though, so I hope he savors this July.


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*Does anyone know whether the odds are locked in?*

That is, if you make a bet now at 2:1 odds Lance vs the field and the odds narrow between now and the TDF do the odds of you bet change too or are you locked in and only subsequent bets are subject to the new odds? Any gamblers out there?

I wonder what happens if you take the field and then Lance crashes and doesn't race the TDF - I guess you win then?

In horse racing the odds are constantly changing up to race time.

Anyone?

Niko


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*Interesting odds*

LA and JU have slipped a bit...last I checked was 5/25

LA from 1.6 to 1.7 minor downgrade
JA from 2.65 to 3.25 a bit more of a slip (interesting as he had not shown any form then.)
Hammy and Vino 12-1 and now Hammy at 6-1
Mayo and Heras 14-1
Mayo upgraded to 7-1, Heras downgraded to 16-1

I'd have thought Heras should be upgraded also...not because of his direct results, but once the climbers beleive they can win and attack repeatedly, other climbers will benefit also.

Hammy getting more of a nod from the pros analysts than Mayo. That is a bit interesting...Hammy has to ride without crashing (which he should have gotten out of the way already). Tells me that the TT is going to be that more important.


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## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

coreyb said:


> looks like it might be field vs armstrong&ulrich



Yes that's what it looks like now. I'm pretty sure it originally explicity said Field vs Armstrong, and in fact, that was what I was told they were giving by the person who told me about it. Either they wised up or it was a technical error originally? I still might take it.


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## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

Old_school_nik said:


> I wonder what happens if you take the field and then Lance crashes and doesn't race the TDF - I guess you win then?
> 
> In horse racing the odds are constantly changing up to race time.
> 
> ...


I was told this was not like horse racing, that the odds were locked in at the time of the bet. I'm pretty sure that the display on the Sportsbook.com has changed since I first looked at it. It's not clear if both Armstrong & Ullrich must start for the Field vs Ullrich and Armstrong bet to stand. I would assume not, since it explicity says that taking Ullrich or Armstrong for the win is contingent upon them starting.


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*(spoiler) and more on betting*

Thw way Jan climbed today dropping the like of Moos, Julich, and some other climbers - with a TT coming up - Jan is not fat and will certainly be a favorite to beat Lance. If they give me some goods odds to take Jan for the win - i will likely delve into this online gambling thing - funny becasue I was thinking about it anyway, and then you went and posted this info. What do they take off the bat %10 or something goes to the house?

-Nik


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## Italophile (Jun 11, 2004)

*Nailed it! ...nearly*

Brilliant analysis, and you have it right everywhere except Tyler. Tyler is an old hockey player from the rocky shores of New England. He has a kind of mean streak, too, he just talks less like it. Tyler will finish the race healthy and on the podium, at least the second place. If anything happens to LA, Tyler walks away with it. He is too close to retirement to let his super form and strong team go to waste.


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## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

Old_school_nik said:


> Thw way Jan climbed today dropping the like of Moos, Julich, and some other climbers - with a TT coming up - Jan is not fat and will certainly be a favorite to beat Lance. If they give me some goods odds to take Jan for the win - i will likely delve into this online gambling thing - funny becasue I was thinking about it anyway, and then you went and posted this info. What do they take off the bat %10 or something goes to the house?
> 
> -Nik


I took the Field vs. Armstrong & Ullrich at 2 to 1. I waffled back and forth and almost took Ullrich at 11 to 5. I figured the slightly better odds on Ullrich weren't worth it when you think of all the misfortunes that could happen even if Ullrich (or Armstrong) has the best legs in the race.


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## Spoiler (Jul 6, 2002)

1. Armstrong
As far back as the Tour of Georgia, He kept emphasizing just how how hard the very end of the Tour is. Tour of Georgia only tells us that he still enjoys winning. Ventoux is a mystery. It certainly made for a good test. I would have guessed that Lance would test himself hard and try to win that stage and forget about forcing the team to try to help him take the overall. If Mayo himself admits he was on peak form, probably will not improve, and only hopes to not lose form too soon. USPS has an even stronger TTT squad this year, so they should win. I believe the '03 excuses of injury, dehydration, and early peak. I think he's in better form than last year.

2. Tyler Hamilton
He knows how to peak just like Lance. He seems to have had no problem taking the role of leader without acting bossy. Tyler has no problem keeping up in the long time trials and if Mayo loses form, Tyler could take Alpe d'Huez. Phonak should make a second place TTT team. 

3. Jan Ulrich. He may be in form, but not '03 form. I've said I think Lance is in better than '03 form. Both Tyler and Jan have said they are not content to just podium, but I think Tyler is has more confidence. He doesn't know what it's like to be healthy/injury free and still get beaten. Jan does. 

others: Mayo-Peaked too soon. Individual time trials and team time trials are two strikes against him before the Tour even starts. 
Heras-I haven't seen many record breaking results, but I still remember how everybody including Bob Roll firmly declared him cycling's best climber after he killed everyone in the final Vuelta time trial. He really could use Johan B. to talk him up the Alpe for a win. 
What would be cool would be to see Brad McGee do well, but he may be peaked for the Giro, take a break, then peak for the Olympics. 
I'd be interested in seeing whether Cunego is riding. He could go for the climbers jersey. I'd be more interested in seeing whether Simoni learned anything from last year and is able to to more than win one stage. 

I hope Cipo wins at least one stage. Petacchi's dull. I hope Robbie McEwan get's DQ's from a stage win, especially if he's wins after joining a five-man breakaway of 100km, containing no other sprinters.


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*more like 3 cents here...*

Is this the attempt at 6? Or is it the attempt for the 7? EZ already has 6 and the 'record'. Can he get the 7th green? Virenque has 6 also and tied for the 'record'. Can he stand alone with a 7th polka dot?

Watch out for Hondo. He has shown some surprising short TT ability and is a heck of a sprinter. But Pettachi will have Pozzato leading him out, watching the kid deliver his team leader will probably be more interesting than Pettachi's actual win. Hushovd contesting the intermed sprint points will stay in the competition.

Sorry atpjunkie, I'm not going with a echelon split in stages 1-3. I'm voting for stage 8 crosswind where USPS, CSC and Phonak hit the front hard and force a split. Maybe one EE boy will be caught out, but one won't. Liberty Sig won't be caught out as a team, but Heras might be napping in the back. Some big name will lose thier GC hope from an echelon split or a cobble crash.

TTT, LS/USPS fight out the win. at 30-45 seconds back CSC and Tmob. 45-60 seconds Phonak and IllesBarsomething (keeping Menchov/Mancebo in the fight). 90+ Credit Ag and Rabo. Around 120 seconds EE, Cofidis QS, Fasso, Gerol, Allesio. Eating max time ChocJack, Saeco, AG2R, Lampre, Lotto, Domina.

By the first rest day, 3-5 pretenders will already be out of the GC picture.

Without Vino, Stage 10 will be boring and transitional with a small non-threatening break allowed to form, it only gets 3 minutes. Who does the chasing will be a more important question.

Stage 12, if raining, LA won't resist the temptation to execute the field. But, he might find that someone found some rain climbing legs and stick with him. If it is dry, I want to see a kamakazee descent off the Aspin and someone press the advantage on LaMongie. Maybe Simoni. Maybe LA. 

Stage 13 the only stage that could be a critical result in and of itself. When the camera is on Tyler he has not disappointed yet. With Americans in the theater watching, he will find some enormous strength on the Plateau...but only get a 30 second gap. Maybe the win bonus will put him in yellow. Oh yea, Virenque will go early and grab a bunch of kom points, but Tyler will pass him at 5k to go. Tyler will ask Virenque about 'au bloc' before sprinting away to the win. (reference to '99 Tour smack talk)

Stage 15, Virenque goes early again for points. Other non-GC go with him. They stay away this time though as the GC boys are content to watch themselves (and Virenque suffer horribly the next day)

Stage 16, small time gaps...Mayo does a historic Double. Heras and Hammy within 25 seconds. LA at 30, JU at 50.

Stage 17 Tmob/USPS/Phonak all send riders to the front to make the day as hard as possible and punish the tired climbers. All the pretenders suffer horribly and are reminded how big the big men really are. Few are able to keep pace with the real strong men of the Tour...diverse group of 8 finish together

Stage 18, the strong teams keep it together for a fairly unremarkable stage.

Stage 19, JU show his wrath via a huge gear and salvage an otherwise unremarkable Tour. He will pull back a good number of places...maybe something like 10th place up to fourth-second. Hammy and LA have a wonderful battle and finish close to each other, but far enough away from JU for people to say that the Olympics will be JU crushing the field. Four minute gaps between first and fifth places. Climbers lose more time than they thought possible.

Stage 20, no last minute green jersey battle. What a shame. May have been the best part of the last two years...

Tour 04 will be a changing of the guard. Old Guard Zabel, Cippo and Virenque will limp along. Yes they may still make a splash now and then in the BIG Tour, but not many waves. Will Armstrong get his 6th? will he start to fade? will he make excuses? or will he come back next year and fight just as hard and give us yet another great show?
If I have to chose, #6 for LA, and 2005 a very anticlimatic #7...but I hope for more contention than that.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*I like that stage 8 call*

either way USPS, CSC and possibly T-Mob will dash some hopes. Someones going to get caught asleep, it happened to Vino this year already and seemed to set the tone for his season. I'm calling old guard for #7. Zabel may not be the fastest anymore but IMHO he will finish and reaching Paris with a handful of 2nd thru 5ths and possibly some inters still beats 5 wins in the first 10 days and hitting the team car when it gets steep.


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## jwad (Jul 1, 2003)

Without Vino, Stage 10 will be boring and transitional with a small non-threatening break allowed to form, it only gets 3 minutes. Who does the chasing will be a more important question.


While stage 10 may not make much of a difference in the GC standings, I'm guessing it wont be boring. Its on Bastille Day, and is the first stage with a significant amount of KOM points.


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## euro-trash (May 1, 2004)

Ulrich and Tyler will be 1-2. I keep waffling on who will win.


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## Mike Prince (Jan 30, 2004)

*Here's mine*

Without reading all of the responses, here's my picks:

1. Ullrich
2. Tyler
3. Lance

Tyler is riding awesome and has a strong team to support him. Ullrich has taken it to a new level, and even without Salvodelli, Evans and Vino T-Mobile still has a strong team. Lance is riding well, but Phonak will take time out of USPS in the TTT and Tyler will put time into Armstrong on Alpe D'Huez. On the flat time trial, Ullrich will crush them both to win Le Tour.

I would have picked Mayo for 3rd, but the loss of one of the Euskatel riders stacks the deck against him. Mayo will probably take the ITT on Alpe D'Huez, but fade late in the race as his team dwindles.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Not a Jan bash*

I like Jan as well but if any Tour was designed to work against him it's this one. AdH isn't his type of climb, there's some hellishly long climbing days where his weight will work against him (even at his most slender Jan spots most 5-20 lbs) and many have downhill runs to the finish (not his forte either). I'm hoping the Kaiser has a great tour but this one seems stacked against him.


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## boneman (Nov 26, 2001)

*Well, since it starts tomorrow....*

1) Ullrich- He is in his prime years and has always rounded into form, since 1996-1998, late. Usually too late. Looks like he's got it right this time. Losing Vinokourov hurts their ability to launch a two-pronged attack on the climbing stages. I also believe that he will lose time to LA on the Alp d'Huez ITT. However, LA is finally going to feel the effects of age, lack of racing miles and lifestyle leading to an Ullrich win.

2) Armstrong- Tough one to call. Will age finally catch up? Does he have enough racing miles? Can he manage living in the US, racing in Europe, caring for his kids and being in love? If it came down to mindset, he will win but for me, too many unknowns. I'd love to see him get 6 on the trot. I've been going across the Channel the past few years to see the Tour and last year, even the Parisian's have taken to him which is a good as it gets. Why second and not first you ask? The weather. It's supposed to be as hot as it was last year In Europe and the factors that I mentioned earlier will come into play.

These two are the class of the field.

Mayo- Excellent climber and decent in the TT although after the Alp D'Huez stage, didn't show at the front and followed wheels, even through the Pyrenees. We shall see but I don't think he will podium this year although his team, with Zubeldia, looks good for the non-flat terrain.

Hamilton- Older than Lance but he too has incredible determination. Superb climber and time trialer. With Sevilla and Camenzind on the team, should have decent support so I rate Tyler as a good bet for the podium.

Heras- If only Roberto could TT on the flat. My bet to win the ITT on Alp D'Huez. Decent team but only podium step is 3rd. I'll take Hamilton over Heras on that bet.

Michael Roger- My dark horse for 3rd. Rode for Bettini and Virenque last year. Tireless worker who can climb and TT. Big engine, strong mind and another product of the Aussie sporting system.

Simoni- After losing to Cunego in the Giro where he looked flat (not enough racing miles, again), I think he will have a good Tour. Another potential winner for the ITT on Alp D'Huez. They're not fielding their strongest team so I think it's only stage wins for Simoni

Ivan Basso- When Ferretti lets someone go who is this young and having a decent palmares, you have to wonder. That being said, I thought Riis was the DS of the Tour last year with 3 stage victories, each by different riders, each on different terrain and each in different styles. They say Basso's spent a lot of time working on his TT shortfalls. We shall see. Strong rider, can stay with the best on the climbs but a follower there, plus the TT question. No podium this year.

Julich & Leipheimer- Top 10, possibly top 5 for Levi and that's it.

Polka Dot- Virenque followed by Menchov

Green- Petacchi followed by McEwen

White- Michel Rogers

Prologue winnter- Bradley McGee


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## SuperB (Jul 1, 2004)

Here's mine:

1. Lance
2. Tyler
3. Jan

C'mon, LA is going to take 6. Just to be different, I'll pick Tyler over Jan for a 1-2 U.S. punch, something most people aren't even considering. I think LA is more determined than last year and will be much better. I think Jan is really hurt by the loss of Vino. With Vino, I would definitely put Jan at 1 or 2. Remember Tyler's performance last year with the bad wing. Like LA, I think Tyler will have a tremendous performance and has just enough team support to podium.


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## izibo (Jul 2, 2004)

Hey All,

First of all, I just discovered this site and the forums and it is really nice to have a place to make worthwhile discussions about the tour 

Now, moving on. I think all of us can agree that we really have no idea what Lance's conditioning is. Early season stuff was right on track, but then what the heck happened on Ventoux? Was he going easy like he said, was he playing mind games, or is he just out of shape?

I think that we should be able to tell pretty quickly which one of the Lance's we are dealing with. While the prologue definately suits a guy like McGee over Lance or Ullrich, I think Lance will want to make an impact on his opponents pysche from the very first day.

Therefore, I predict that if Lance takes the prologue (or gets second behind McGee) then he will win the overall. While those 5 seconds between first and third may not be a lot time wise, I think it says a great deal about his form and determination to win..


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## GatorPV (Jun 29, 2004)

boneman said:


> 1) However, LA is finally going to feel the effects of age, lack of racing miles and lifestyle leading to an Ullrich win.
> 
> 2) Armstrong- Tough one to call. Will age finally catch up? Does he have enough racing miles? Can he manage living in the US, racing in Europe, caring for his kids and being in love? If it came down to mindset, he will win but for me, too many unknowns. I'd love to see him get 6 on the trot. I've been going across the Channel the past few years to see the Tour and last year, even the Parisian's have taken to him which is a good as it gets. Why second and not first you ask? The weather. It's supposed to be as hot as it was last year In Europe and the factors that I mentioned earlier will come into play.



All this talk of LA's age, lack of racing miles? lifestyle? living in US? and Love?
No one prepares all aspects of this race more than LA , Johan and C. Carmichel. LA didn't live in the US he came back and spent time with his kids and won a race (read Tour de Georgia). That should cover the living in the US, kids and lack of racing you mention.
As for Love- last year he was on the verge of divorce dealing with a seperation, make-up and seperation. This year he is in love, happy and focussed. Now for the heat and the weather last year- In the lead up to the 03 Tour USPS worked too hard to win the Dauphine during which LA suffered a nasty crash. Johan and CC have both said he came to the Tour a bit toasted and with some nagging issues. This year they specifically did not try to win the Dauphine so they would be fresher. That alone makes what happened on the Ventoux TT irrelevent. No one should make the mistake of using last year to forcast what he will do this year. He is far more ready this year than last.
All that said I expect a crash or illness will shake up the leaderboard this year and allow for someone unexpected to ride forward and make a mark. I think the stages 15-17 will take some serious time out of JU and potentially leave him off of the podium ( would have been different with Vino in the mix). If no mishaps I think LA wins after that it is anybodies guess on the rest of the podium. I like Levi as a darkhorse to podium. He wants to make up for his misfortunes of last year. My top four are a USPS reunion with 1)LA, 2)Tyler, 3-4)Heras & Levi. A great way for USPS to leave cycling. Call me a homer!


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## Kvonnah (Sep 26, 2002)

*Mine*

Tour predictions:

Podium will be LA, Tyler, and Jan but I'm not sure of the order yet.

Postal will have to be very attentive in this tour. I think in order for Lance to win they are going to have to win the TTT so they can get the max 2:30 up on Euskitel as well as try for a split on the cobbles and or windy stages. I think Mayo and Herras will be the men they will have to mark in the mountians (and Phonak and T-Mobile will be marking Lance) so they can limit as much loss as they can. Mayo or Herras WILL win L'alpe d'Huez Hamilton, Lance and Jan will have to stay as close as they can to their times.

I think Postal, Phonak and T-Mobile will be able to limit thier losses to the pure climbers and the race will come down to the FINAL TT (not L'alpe) and whoever wins that TT between Lance, Tyler, and Jan will win the tour.

THIS is gonna be good!!


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## torquecal (Nov 9, 2002)

*My Picks*

1st: Samuel Dumoulin
2nd: Sebastien Hinault
3rd: Frederic Guesdon

Polka Dot: Mikel Pradera
Green: Marcus Zberg


Longshot for the podium: Gilles Bouvard


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## AcesFull (Jun 10, 2003)

*Latest futures market and prognostication*

I really like Tyler with Oscar in support. What a combo. If Tyler can keep the rubber side down, he should hit the podium. 

This is a very exciting parcours for the fans. With so much loaded on the last week and riders talking about saving their fitness, I believe a strong but unknown rider like Cunego could win in a similar fashion as the Giro.

If I were the wagering type, I would put my $ with my mouth at:

http://tinyurl.com/2tmrv

You can get the entire field for around 2-3 versus Armstrong or entire field for 3-2 against LA and JU. 

This is a good bet if I hadn't lost all my money on the last sure thing.


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## hrv (Dec 9, 2001)

1. Lance

2. Tyler, if he can keep from crashing his 100% Carbon BMC TT bike into un-recognizable shards.

3. Ullrich. Maybe the least trained but the most talented/gifted. 

GO LANCE!!!


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## crankee (Aug 2, 2003)

*I'll play*

1. Lance (because he's Lance)

2. Tyler John Tyler (only a Texan will get this)

3. Jan-Boy (scary strong and fast, but he'll manage to screw it up again)

My parallel universe picks are:

1. David (it's EPO time!) Millar

2. Oh Danny Boy DiLuca (a shame, really)

3. Phillipe Gaumont (who? Oh yeah, the other Cofidis guy)

Here's hoping he'll have a great Tour: Christian Vandevelde - the forgotten American (Liberty Seguros)


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## Traveller (Aug 21, 2002)

*TDF winner*

My experience in cycling and following TDF is fairly limited. However, here is my podium :
1. Lance: Reason is simple enough, last year when he was suffering they couldn't beat him, this year he has no such baggage. His hunger seems to be the same or more, and because he wants to tell the world that he is still the strongest rider in the world.

2. Tyler

3. Jan


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## Thor (May 25, 2004)

My son's prediction (yes, that's 6):


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## Inspector Gadget (Apr 5, 2002)

*The Team Car Race*

Who will win the race to the team car and on what stage? Cipo or Pettachi? My bet is on Cipo. He already got dropped on two climbs in the flat stages. I cringe at what he will do when the real climbing starts. Actually, with a wave of the hand he'll be off the Tour at the first mountain stage. At least he's gone farther than 3k so far.
As for the podium: What I think:
1. Lance
2. Tyler
3. Jan

What I would like:
1. Tyler 
2. Lance 
3. Jan

I am sure my team car prediction will ruffle a few feathers, but since I've seen a pretty fair share of Lance bashing here, then I can take a few shots at two who can't even finish a Tour. And if they do, then I'll be wrong and I can live with that.


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## Rouleur (Mar 5, 2004)

*Before the Pave and TTT...*

Before the debacle on the pave, I truly thought that Mayo could win the whole enchilada. My pre-stage 3 prediction was:

1. Mayo
2. Ullrich
3. Armstrong
4. Hamilton
5. Mancebo
6. Zubeldia
7. Scarponi
8. Leipheimer
9. Heras
10. Julich

It was cool to see Postal lay down the wood in the TTT. I have to hand it to Euskatel for riding the way they did even after stage 3.

I don't have a revised list. Just goes to show the crazy nature of le Grande Boucle.


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## MountainPro (Jan 14, 2003)

I was really not a fan of armstrong until recently...probably because i am from the UK i can look at the race from a fairly unbiased viewpoint since our only rider (David Millar) was caught taking drugs and kicked out of Le Tour 04. 

i have to say however, that LA will annihlate the competition this year, yesterdays team time trial was simply a piece of beautiful poetry by the US Postal team, Lance deserves to win and if he doesnt it will be a crime. 

there is no one capable of beating him in the individual time trial, Ullrich has got no chance on that stage, he is good in the mountains but only Pantani would have given Lance a run for his money here but sadly it cannot be. 

so yeah, 

1st Armstrong

the next few will be Zabel, Hamilton, McEwan, Julich and possibly Ullrich and an outside chance of Kirsupu. 

i had big hopes for Magnus Backstedt but now he is well down the table...so who knows.

i want to throw in Liephiemer and Mancebo..somewhere in the top 10...possibly. 

too many goo riders this year, we shall wait and see.


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## rclements16 (May 3, 2004)

*You're way too obsessed with high school football.*

They always loose in the quarterfinals ... except for the year of EC.



crankee said:


> 1. Lance (because he's Lance)
> 
> 2. Tyler John Tyler (only a Texan will get this)
> 
> ...


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