# TdF'15 - Stage 20 - Discussion and Spoiler



## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

​*Stage 19 Re-cap:*

[Church Lady voice] "Well, wasn't that interesting?"
Nibbles invited his fellow GC contenders to swim in the Shark Tank for a bit. Good win for last year's champion - a ride for respect. The Skyborgs are finally showing some wear and tear from the many smaller attacks. Quintana took back more time and Conti...well he lost more. He's not even in the same zip code as Froomey-Zoomey!
Just when some of us, myself included, had given up on further drama during this Tour - Stage 19 delivered! This bodes well for tomorrow's Queen Stage.

*General Classification after Stage 19:*
1. Christopher Froome (Sky)
2. Nairo Quintana (Movistar) 2:38
3. Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) 5:25
4. Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) 6:44
5. Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo) 7:56
6. Robert Gesink (LottoNL-Jumbo) 8:55
7. Mathias Frank (IAM) 12:39
8. Bauke Mollema (Trek) 13:22
9. Romain Bardet (Ag2r-La Mondiale) 14:08
10. Pierre Rolland (Europcar) 17:27

*Stage 20:* Modane Valfréjus - Alpe d'Huez. 110.5km

Well Ladies and Gentlemen, here's the stage we have all been looking forward to - the climb of the historic Alpe d'Huez, one of the holiest of holies in the Tifosi's bible. Nairo Quintana is 2:38 back of the Yellow Jersey - it is not impossible that he can mount a last and very serious challenge here. Froome and Sky have shown some signs of weakness - if the stars and moon align, we may be in for a monumental upset! 

*Stage 20 Profile:*


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

After being nonexistant these past couple of stages, I pick Sagan winning this stage.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Skewer said:


> After being nonexistant these past couple of stages, I pick Sagan winning this stage.


Again? 

I will go with hope instead of knowledge as well: Contador! :thumbsup:


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

LostViking said:


> Again?
> 
> I will go with hope instead of knowledge as well: Contador! :thumbsup:


Sagan breaks away at the start of the race with Contador drafting Sagan all the way to the finish line. The remaining Tinkoff Saxo team stay back to control the peloton and block Froome and other GC contenders. Contador overtakes Froome for the yellow jersey. Tinkoff obtains Yellow and Green jersey.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

There was talk before the stage today about nervous riders based on enforcement of the finishing time rule. Today was a coefficient 5 stage, and had an average speed of 31.6 km/h for Nibali. That places the cut at +12% of Nibali's time, which was 4h 22' 53". That would lead to a cut line for those who were more than ~ 31' 30" behind Nibali. The slowest time was Guarnieri (Katusha) 30' 30" behind Nibali. Looks like nobody will get eliminated based on finish time in stage 19.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Skewer said:


> Sagan breaks away at the start of the race with Contador drafting Sagan all the way to the finish line. The remaining Tinkoff Saxo team stay back to control the peloton and block Froome and other GC contenders. Contador overtakes Froome for the yellow jersey. Tinkoff obtains Yellow and Green jersey.


Get out of my dreams!!!!!


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## bradkay (Nov 5, 2013)

I am not sure that there are enough major climbs on this stage for Moviestar to use in attacks on Team Sky. Unless the overall fatigue from the last week has truly worn the Sky boys out, they should be able to deliver Froome to the summit of L'Alpe d'Huez within 2 minutes of Quintana. 

I hope to see serious attacks from the base of the Croix de Fer climb. If they wait to attack on the Alpe they will have waited too long.


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## JCavilia (Sep 12, 2005)

Skewer said:


> Sagan breaks away at the start of the race with Contador drafting Sagan all the way to the finish line. The remaining Tinkoff Saxo team stay back to control the peloton and block Froome and other GC contenders. Contador overtakes Froome for the yellow jersey. Tinkoff obtains Yellow and Green jersey.


Whatever you're smoking, you should share.


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## JCavilia (Sep 12, 2005)

bradkay said:


> Unless the overall fatigue from the last week has truly worn the Sky boys out, they should be able to deliver Froome to the summit of L'Alpe d'Huez within 2 minutes of Quintana.


Unless I'm mistaken, the number of teammates Froom had with him at the start of today's final climb was approximately zero.


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## bradkay (Nov 5, 2013)

JCavilia said:


> Unless I'm mistaken, the number of teammates Froom had with him at the start of today's final climb was approximately zero.


Right, and that was the fourth categorized climb of the day. It was all the attacks on the earlier climbs - starting from the moment the flag dropped - that wore them down. That is why I am not sure that there are enough climbs on tomorrow's stage - with only two or them, albeit both HC - to do it. The only chance, IMO, is for the attacks to start at the base of the Coix de Fer. If they wait until the Alpe, it isn't going to happen.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

This from Quintana after today's stage:

_"I've been pretty strong but it wasn't enough to dethrone Froome. He defended himself well. I didn't follow Nibali because I thought it was too far away from the finish. I first wanted to make Team Sky work. I thought Team Sky would control Nibali but it wasn't the case. The last 5km seemed to be the most appropriate because the rhythm set by Tinkoff was very high. I've missed the final touch. Tomorrow it'll be all or nothing. We'll also try to keep Alejandro Valverde on the podium. "_​
I expect the same tomorrow as today. Whoever recovers the best overnight will be favored. Contador needs to gain ~ 2' 30" on Valverde to make the podium. Barring a crash, illness or other catastrophe to the others ahead of him, Contador looks out of it. It will be a battle for third between Nibali and Valverde. Expect to see a lot of Movistar guys at the front from the beginning defending both NQ and Valverede. The stage starts with a descent for 25 km, then the battle begins. The question for the Sky guys is can they hang in there to hold off Movistar and NQ through both climbs.

Tomorrow may the the best day of the race.


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## nsfbr (May 23, 2014)

ibericb said:


> This from Quintana after today's stage:
> _"I've been pretty strong but it wasn't enough to dethrone Froome. He defended himself well. I didn't follow Nibali because I thought it was too far away from the finish. I first wanted to make Team Sky work. I thought Team Sky would control Nibali but it wasn't the case. The last 5km seemed to be the most appropriate because the rhythm set by Tinkoff was very high. I've missed the final touch. Tomorrow it'll be all or nothing. We'll also try to keep Alejandro Valverde on the podium. "_​
> I expect the same tomorrow as today. Whoever recovers the best overnight will be favored. Contador needs to gain ~ 2' 30" on Valverde to make the podium. Barring a crash, illness or other catastrophe to the others ahead of him, Contador looks out of it. It will be a battle for third between Nibali and Valverde. Expect to see a lot of Movistar guys at the front from the beginning defending both NQ and Valverede. The stage starts with a descent for 25 km, then the battle begins. The question for the Sky guys is can they hang in there to hold off Movistar and NQ through both climbs.
> 
> Tomorrow may the the best day of the race.


That's a rather insightful, although I suspect not quite honest statement from Quintana. He is basically saying he didn't think that Nibbles would make it stick and that this was a mistake on his part. The tough part is that had he gone with Nibali, it would have been viewed as completely unsportsmanlike. So, what really could be viewed as happening is that Quintana didn't go when Froome had his problem because while it might have been acceptable for someone not in contention to do so, it wasn't okay for him to.

Sadly, I think the fact of the matter is that Nibali was going pretty much right then and there, which is why he took off when he did. I mean he probably was within a minute of taking off and was looking for a good moment. His competitive instincts told him to go and he did. Had that happened just because he saw a good moment that wasn't a mech problem, Quintana probably goes with him, Froome craters and the final day is one for the ages. 

But now we just have one that is going to be a bit closer. 

Unless some idiot throws acid on Froome - I frankly wouldn't be surprised. They need to be arresting people on the course and the lack of any kind of controls on the morons is kind of pathetic.


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## coldash (May 7, 2012)

I expect a Quintana / Valverde to use the 1 / 2 against Froome. I hope it is close and that the best rider wins. What I don't want to see is any idiotic crowd antics.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

They go downhill 15 miles to St Jean de Maurienne. This is like the witch being nice to Hansel and Gretl by feeding them really well - so they would be nice and plump.

The riders pass through this village, then begin the nearly 20-mile climb of Col do le Croix de Fer.

Obviously, this would be a great place to begin some testing. However, even the route through SJ d'Maurienne is troublesome. The riders will cross L'Arvan, a modest river, then hit town, with some quick obtuse-angle turns that will keep anyone from getting up to speed before the next - the peloton will get spread out before half-way through SJdM. In fact, if the crossing of the L'Arvan river is windy, and someone can radio conditions to a team, the river approach would be a great place to plan a do-or-die break.

After this, there is very little road for the peloton to solidify, other than the brief six miles of flat before hitting Alpe D'Huez. After ascending Col do le Croix de Fer, there is a serious 20-mile descent to Allemont where some consolidation may happen, but there are some serious corners on the descent, and the route opts to divert to the southeast side of Lac du Verney in order to add a bit more twist to the road. This Alpine valley may have its own up-valley headwind for the riders, keeping the peloton more distraught.

From Allemont, the road is pleasant until Bourg-d-Oisans. This would be a great moment for the riders to stop and get some chocolates for the girlfriend, or get their kids a little gift for when they get back home. I am sure Lance and Sheryl had some cuddly moments down here before he tutored her up Huez.

This six-mile interlude will be interesting. If you think you can at least wheel-suck your way to a top-ten, you better tidy it all up here. In fact, the final 3 miles is the easiest pedaling of the entire 2015 route. But, like the initial downhill, this is just to fatten you for the kill.

Alp.D.'.Huez. Baby Huez is nowhere to be seen. How bad could it be if Sheryl Crow smoothly crested the summit with that smitten, flirtatious hair-toss and the Ultra-Brite Smile?

Well, they say there are 18 switchbacks. Some say 24. Some swear they counted 126. The remaining riders will ascend over 1,000 meters (un mil metres) in about 9 miles. Now that the peloton is a gun-free, drug-free, zone, they will only have dreams of glory, Alpine Masseuses, and genuine Champagne to spur them on to the mercifully gentle final two miles of this storied ascent.

For anyone who has anything more than the nominal energy to simply finish, there is plenty of opportunity for glory, or to at least please the jersey sponsors.

The contest for MJ has been lukewarm for much of this tour, but we now have relatively close time gaps, and a route that give no mercy beyond the frist few miles and a couple miles before the final climb.

Enjoy. And, I look forward to collecting all of my bets from you Sunday morn at church.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Huez switchbacks*

Huez switchbacks. Up D211 from SW to NE.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*quelques photos de Alp d'Huez*

quelques photos de Alp d'Huez


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

No big deal. Sheryl Crow knocks out Alpe D'Huez in 90 minutes. but we have no idea if she was on the EPO.
Crow Proves Love With Grueling Bike Trip | Contactmusic.com

www.cyclingnews.com - the world centre of cycling


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

nicely done, PJay,:thumbsup:


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## joeinchi (Sep 24, 2010)

NQ makes his move!


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

joeinchi said:


> NQ makes his move!


thomas, puls, and roche are smoked!
porte hangin in there.

I think froome is pedaling tired.


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## joeinchi (Sep 24, 2010)

Final attack. It's on!


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Porte = MVP TdF 2015.


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

not a great stage. not even the fans could animate this stage.


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## coldash (May 7, 2012)

Some big gaps there. Let's see the W/Kg figures. I see the "Clinic" is going mad over Quintana's time.


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## MoonHowl (Oct 5, 2008)

I am certainly highly skeptical about Team Sky but in the event I am wrong; congrats to Froome.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Le Tour is salvaged by the Alps. Some seriously inspired rides for placings and stage wins that past couple of days. In retrospect - this sure was a tour route for Quintana, that day he was caught out by the wind really hurt his chances for winning. The Tour is merciless!


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Movistar's moves today, tactics wise, were a thing of beauty. From the softening attacks, to the use of the breakaway rider, sweet to see. Froome had such a solid lead, and he managed things quite well to limit losses, but for a few moments I thought ...

Good way to end the GC, very fun to watch.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Movistar's moves today, tactics wise, were a thing of beauty. From the softening attacks, to the use of the breakaway rider, sweet to see. Froome had such a solid lead, and he managed things quite well to limit losses, but for a few moments I thought ...
> 
> Good way to end the GC, very fun to watch.


I enjoyed it too. Just wondered why they waited for the last 2 stages to try to erase 3 minutes


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## bradkay (Nov 5, 2013)

"In retrospect - this sure was a tour route for Quintana, that day he was caught out by the wind really hurt his chances for winning. The Tour is merciless!"

Considering that he lost 1:28 on that day and lost the Tour by 1:12, you are spot on.

I agree with ATPjunkie. He should have attacked on the previous alpine stages as well, though they might not have realized how tired Sky was getting at that point. As it was, they waited too late.


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## viciouscycle (Aug 22, 2009)

But, who knows just how fresh Quintana was, how many riders on his team were fresh? If he had attacked earlier then they have to defend the lead which is always harder to do. Sky and CF did a awesome job defending attacks over many days and through the mountains. An awesome finish!


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## gofast2wheeler (Oct 13, 2011)

Congrats to Froome and Team Sky. Froome was in trouble today but big Richie comes thru in the clutch. Richie is a big loose to Sky. He could help TJ win Tour or in my mind be there GC rider with TJ riding for him when at BMC. Also props to G man he was instrumental in Froomes win as well. NQ should have went right at bottom of Alp that would have been the difference if he could have keep pace till finish. Overall this Tour route suited NQ abilities to a tee going forward if Tour has ITT NQ will never win. Now I must go order my Pina frame, just kidding.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

bradkay said:


> "In retrospect - this sure was a tour route for Quintana, that day he was caught out by the wind really hurt his chances for winning. The Tour is merciless!"
> 
> Considering that he lost 1:28 on that day and lost the Tour by 1:12, you are spot on.
> 
> I agree with ATPjunkie. He should have attacked on the previous alpine stages as well, though they might not have realized how tired Sky was getting at that point. As it was, they waited too late.


agreed. but getting caught out in a crosswind is like getting dropped on a climb. It's part of the race and it is a personal and team failure.
Tiny climbers are the most susceptible to this, they need to be ready when riding with cross winds

I can remember when Iban Mayo was slated to win the tour with a strong showing in the Dauphine. He never stood a chance, his rival slammed it to the curb and rode echelon and dropped him and his Tour hopes before he ever saw a climb.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> I enjoyed it too. Just wondered why they waited for the last 2 stages to try to erase 3 minutes


Hey, I said every team with GC hopes should have been throwing attacks at Froome for the last 2 weeks! 

They needed Froome to crack, and he cracked a bit on the last day. If they had cracked him the day before.... then I think they had a shot. But as hard as they tried, he held his lead until the end, and left too much work for Q to do.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

I believe a few of the teams had their hopes tied to a leader, and when it became clear that wouldn't work, the team supporters took it easy. When Nibali cracked, it seems Astana largely gave up. When BMC lost Tejay, they seemed to settle into the pack. When It became clear that Contador wouldn't make, most of Tinkoff seemed resigned to the fact. They tried, until, it didn't make sense for them to try any longer. The problem was Sky was well rested and prepared for the start. They certainly faded in the last two stages in the Alps. Only Movistar was still ready and willing to mount the attack. It nearly worked.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

atpjunkie said:


> I enjoyed it too. Just wondered why they waited for the last 2 stages to try to erase 3 minutes


I don't get that either, unless nobody had the legs to do it knowing they would be shut down by Sky.

I, of course, enjoyed the stage, but all in all, I found this tour to be pretty unexciting. I love watching Contador dancing on his pedals and attacking, but didn't see a lot of good attacks. Maybe it was the heat????


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

ibericb said:


> I believe a few of the teams had their hopes tied to a leader, and when it became clear that wouldn't work, the team supporters took it easy. When Nibali cracked, it seems Astana largely gave up. When BMC lost Tejay, they seemed to settle into the pack. When It became clear that Contador wouldn't make, most of Tinkoff seemed resigned to the fact. They tried, until, it didn't make sense for them to try any longer. The problem was Sky was well rested and prepared for the start. They certainly faded in the last two stages in the Alps. Only Movistar was still ready and willing to mount the attack. It nearly worked.


Ummmmm, Cannondale gave it a good go. They had a great plan and lost it on the Dutch corner. Too bad.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Movistar and Tinkoff both did try earlier, but it never worked. They had to wait for Sky to start sagging, evident in stage 19. By that point Tinkoff was largely gone Even then, it wasn't easy. Tinkoff tried the double, and Contador couldn't do it. Over the past 70 years few have.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

love4himies said:


> Ummmmm, Cannondale gave it a good go. They had a great plan and lost it on the Dutch corner. Too bad.


At best they were hoping for a stage win. Talansky had a good show in stage 17, but steadily faded after that. They never really had a chance.

The one that really faded was Etixx, after Tony Martin crashed. I thought at that point they might try to pull either Uran or Stybar up into contention. But it never happened.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

ibericb said:


> At best they were hoping for a stage win. Talansky had a good show in stage 17, but steadily faded after that. They never really had a chance.
> 
> The one that really faded was Etixx, after Tony Martin crashed. I thought at that point they might try to pull either Uran or Stybar up into contention. But it never happened.


I was talking about stage 20 .


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

word is, Froome developed a little chest bug the latter days of the Alps, maybe that explains his inability to respond like he did earlier in the Tour


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

love4himies said:


> I was talking about stage 20 .


Yes, Hejesdal made a good try yesterday. But that too was simply for the stage. My comment to which you previously replied (_"Ummmmm..."_ and pointed to Cannondale), however, was much broader than stage 20. It was in response to QuiQueQuod's post suggesting every team with GC hopes should have been throwing attacks for the last 2 weeks.


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