# Stage 17: Pau to Col du Tourmalet - 174km



## weltyed

It all comes down to this. Well, not really. There is still the small matter of the ITT, and ,to a lesser extent, the final two sprint stages. But this is what could decide the podium. Sorta. 

This tour has been anything but the expected, so making a prediction for this stage is rather tough. What can be said is there will most certainly be attacks. If the top four riders get away, we could possibly see one of the most dramitc fights in quite some time.

There are two keys to this stage: how your body responds to a rest day, and who gets the most help the longest. The riders will go Cat4, Sprint, Cat1, lunch, Cat1, Sprint, HC (Col du Tourmalet) summit finish. It's not just the Maillot Jaune on the line, either. This is the last day for the Polka Dots, and that race is close. We also have the points race. Thor has it, Cavs wants it, and Petacchi had it, lost it, had it again, and is under Italian questioning. Thor has proven he can climb, so I expect to see him make a go at the first sprint, but the next sprint is two Cat1's later. 
The Mountains Classification will be quite the battle, but probably peter out after the Second Cat1. This leave the GC race.
I fully expect to see Saxo Bank with at least three men around Andy until halfway up the second Cat1. Cancellar will be pushing the pace up and down the first Cat1. Jens will be in charge of getting Schleck up the second Cat1. He will need someone to follow down the descent, and that will be the tricky part. He may make a pact with SSanchez to attack up that climb so he can follow his wheel on the backside and distance himself from Contador. This would be risky as SSanchez could get more time on Schleck, and I don't know how good SSanchez is at time trialing. Nor have I seen how technical that route is. 

So, I'm gonna lay all that aside and say Contador takes the stage, :45 over Schleck. Not sure if SSanchez or Menchov will cross before Andy. 

Oh, and everyone will wonder why we doubted Astana's power. Vino and two others will get Contador safely to the base of the Tourmalet. And it'll be game over, man.


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## godot

AC and AS prove they're the class of the GC contenders, finish together ahead of the rest. AC "gifts" the stage to AS as a bit of an apology for Tuesday, and then gets ripped on RBR.


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## stevesbike

godot said:


> AC and AS prove they're the class of the GC contenders, finish together ahead of the rest. AC "gifts" the stage to AS as a bit of an apology for Tuesday, and then gets ripped on RBR.


that sounds about right! only alternative is that they mark each other, do some trackstands, and a non-gc climber gets the stage - maybe sastre or even evans since he seems to have taken stage 16 off


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## yater

I agree with everything but the last sentence. I think it'll be game ON at the base of Tourmalet.


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## gh1

Weltyed has it dialed in. I agree.


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## OldEndicottHiway

I just hope someone actually does something. 

Who's currently second to last? I vote that guy. Takes a lot of work to hold your head up high being second to last.


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## WAZCO

As much as I want AS to win, I have a feeling that AC and AS will to focus on each other to much and Menchov will attack and pull a 2008 Sastre stunt. I think Menchov is staying and keeping low so that there's no pressure on him. He'll pull close enough to Conti and then take it away on the ITT. I know it's a long shot but no one thought Sastre had it a chance in 08 and I want to be the one to call it if Menchov miraculously pulls this one off. My guts tells me this is Menchov year.


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## JSR

I say Schleck takes the stage and a few seconds on AC. This presumes that Andy's rest-day time in remedial classes on the proper operation of a drive train is well spent.

JR


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## JohnHemlock

I think it's like Ventoux last year, where 2 or 3 non-contenders go up the road first. AC and AS and one other GC guy mark each other all the way to the top and maybe Andy gets 5-10 seconds. Those two guys are like a lightweight prize fight - lots of dancing but nobody swapping leather.


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## moabbiker

Denis Menchov takes the stage in an incredible upset when Schleck and Bert were watching each other too much.


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## yater

JohnHemlock said:


> I think it's like Ventoux last year, where 2 or 3 non-contenders go up the road first. AC and AS and one other GC guy mark each other all the way to the top and maybe Andy gets 5-10 seconds. Those two guys are like a lightweight prize fight - lots of dancing but nobody swapping leather.


True....but AS knows he's beat in the TT, so I think he'll kill himself tomorrow. I think we'll find out who has it and who doesn't. He can't put enough time into AC to win GC, but he'd like to wear yellow again.


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## Mosovich

*I just hope..*

it's a stage we will talk about for years to come in a positive way.. Great riding and great competition, not dropped chains or mechanicals.. I can't wait!!


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## jd3

We will find out who the best climber is, AC or AS. Andy has to go for it to have a chance on GC and to get his* revenge*. I say Andy.


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## ilmaestro

godot said:


> AC and AS prove they're the class of the GC contenders, finish together ahead of the rest. AC "gifts" the stage to AS as a bit of an apology for Tuesday, and then gets ripped on RBR.


AS doesn't need any gifts from AC.


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## 55x11

jd3 said:


> We will find out who the best climber is, AC or AS. Andy has to go for it to have a chance on GC and to get his* revenge*. I say Andy.


With rainy weather predicted it could be a long breakaway that succeeds as peloton may not be super-motivated to drive hard in the rain. 
Andy attacks non-stop and takes time out of Contador and yellow but not nearly enough of a cushion to preserve it in ITT. I am already a little disappointed in Andy.


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## dwgranda

AC will take the stage if he can. He can't bet on winning the time trial and he'll want to win a stage to validate his overall especially with what's happened.




godot said:


> AC and AS prove they're the class of the GC contenders, finish together ahead of the rest. AC "gifts" the stage to AS as a bit of an apology for Tuesday, and then gets ripped on RBR.


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## The Moontrane

I think a break away with non-GC riders dwindles down to a few, and the strongest takes it. For GC, Contador puts the aforementioned :45 into Schleck. Wait, that doesn’t read right. :ihih:


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## philippec

it's pissing rain here and it's cold - forecast is for more of the same + some mntn thunderstorms this pm. This will no doubt have an impact on the race. We're bagging plans to climb Tourmalet to watch and instead will watch from the roadside in the valley and then on TV in our local café. The descents off of Marie Blanque and the Soulor are tight and technical - I expect Cancelara to go to the front and neutralise those descents to prevent Schleck the younger from falling/drop chaining and losing time! 
oops... Peals of thunder now - tough day ahead!


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## il sogno

godot said:


> AC and AS prove they're the class of the GC contenders, finish together ahead of the rest. AC "gifts" the stage to AS as a bit of an apology for Tuesday, and then gets ripped on RBR.


LOL.


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## il sogno

JSR said:


> I say Schleck takes the stage and a few seconds on AC. This presumes that Andy's rest-day time in remedial classes on the proper operation of a drive train is well spent.
> 
> JR


^^^^^ This.

Andy presents his certificate of completion for the gear shifting class he took on Wed then takes the stage win. 

I think the Tourmalet is better suited to Andy's climbing style. Andy takes the stage but only a few seconds ahead of Alberto.


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## shabbasuraj

Menchy can take this stage. The guy does have some sick uphill acceleration ability also. Maybe Ryder goes nuts after his new contract, and wins?


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## spookyload

AS will be so busy looking behind him as he always does that he won't even notice when AC rides away from him. Seriously, how many pictures are there where is is turned around. We were watching a stage last week and my wife (who understands little of pro cycling) asked me why he was constantly looking behind himself instead of looking ahead and racing.


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## JohnHemlock

We're already 8 or 9 km into the stage and no attacks yet. Screw this, I'm going to watch Hot Tub Time Machine instead of this bs.


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## Creakyknees

I think poor Bjarne Riis has looked so worried / down this Tour.

Since he hadn't found a sponsor and the Schlecks are leaving, you think?


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## Creakyknees

Weather for Col du Tourmalet, 65120 Barèges, France - Add to iGoogle
59°F 
Current: Showers
Wind: N at 2 mph
Humidity: 94%
Thu

54°F | 48°F


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## Len J

My prediction is that one of the top 4 crashes on the last descent in the rain.

Len


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## Creakyknees

top of the col du marie blanque, first climb


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## Creakyknees

Flecha in the break, got the radio word that Sastre's coming. Flecha goes to the front and pushes. He doesn't want Sastre in the break, he's too high on GC.


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## LostViking

Andy,

Fight on the mountain, fight on the flat, race the TT of your life, and fight all the way to Paris - that's how to react to Chaingate!

May the best man and the best team win!


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## Haridic

Doing your bit for us on the ground hey Creaky?  
Looks amazing hahaha, probably won't feel amazing for the majority of the peloton though


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## OldEndicottHiway

LostViking said:


> Andy,
> 
> Fight on the mountain, fight on the flat, race the TT of your life, and fight all the way to Paris - that's how to react to Chaingate!
> 
> May the best man and the best team win!



Imho, I still think Andy and Saxo needed to try _something_ two days ago instead of hedging all bets on today's stage. 

And that weather, yuck! 

Hey, I think my second to last guy may be in one of the breaks. Yay for second to last guy!


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## OldEndicottHiway

philippec said:


> it's pissing rain here and it's cold - forecast is for more of the same + some mntn thunderstorms this pm. This will no doubt have an impact on the race. We're bagging plans to climb Tourmalet to watch *and instead will watch from the roadside in the valley and then on TV in our local café. *The descents off of Marie Blanque and the Soulor are tight and technical - I expect Cancelara to go to the front and neutralise those descents to prevent Schleck the younger from falling/drop chaining and losing time!
> oops... Peals of thunder now - tough day ahead!



That actually sounds like a not bad way to spend the day, if you can't ride. :thumbsup:


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## nismo73

Do I have to watch that Astana guy with the big nose and breathe right strip on the whole time today?


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## philippec

glad 2 be off the bike 2day. Sux 2 b Sastre!


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## QuiQuaeQuod

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Imho, I still think Andy and Saxo needed to try _something_ two days ago instead of hedging all bets on today's stage.
> 
> And that weather, yuck!



What should they have tried? I see no tactic they could pull on that stage to do anything, not even with their full team. The only tactic that would make sense for that stage profile would be to tire Astana and AC in some way, but that doesn't make sense before a rest day.

The weather.... after a rest day.... someone is going to crack in some way, either a crash as Len said or just not having the legs. 

Personally, I love the weather for this stage. Suffer more, cyclists, suffer more for my entertainment!!!!


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## philippec

philippec said:


> glad 2 be off the bike 2day. Sux 2 b Sastre!


caravan!


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## OldEndicottHiway

dr hoo said:


> *What should they have tried? I see no tactic they could pull on that stage to do anything, not even with their full team.* The only tactic that would make sense for that stage profile would be to tire Astana and AC in some way, but that doesn't make sense before a rest day.
> 
> The weather.... after a rest day.... someone is going to crack in some way, either a crash as Len said or just not having the legs.
> 
> Personally, I love the weather for this stage. Suffer more, cyclists, suffer more for my entertainment!!!!



I realize that. I've tried to think what they could have done... it would've taken an incredible amount of timing and luck. But if Andy really wants "all or nothing" as he said, he needed a hail mary pass, going 4th and long. Problem is, I don't think his team is/was strong enough for that.

Just my ponderings here, is all...


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## OldEndicottHiway

Philippe thanks for posting these pics. Makes me feel in some way I'm there.


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## godot

Is the dinosaur band on the Caisse thingie playing "taps" for Sastre?

What exactly is going on that thing?


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## pretender

nismo73 said:


> Do I have to watch that Astana guy with the big nose and breathe right strip on the whole time today?


You could try to do something worthwhile with your life.


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## philippec

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Philippe thanks for posting these pics. Makes me feel in some way I'm there.


the steak-frites was nom-nom and I think that all of Huesca is in this café! Olé!!


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## PJay

*thx phillipp!*

thx phillipp!

the way this race has gone, i am worried we will se a bad downhill crash or two.

if it is not schleck, then i say schleck will lay it all out there and gain 2 minutes.


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## Opus51569

Sheep!!!


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## Creakyknees

lolz! dangerous


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## LWP

Sheeps in the mist?


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## penn_rider

That was pretty cool....


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## Creakyknees

attack on the descent Andy~! get Fabian and Jens to lead you down


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## MaddSkillz

Crap! Where is the live feed? Cyclingfans is down!!! Oh Noes!!!!


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## dwgranda

With the tour tracker you can sometimes watch the stage from the drop of the flag. I watched it last night while on the trainer. I'm impressed that these guys never look like they're working all that hard unless it's like the last climb. But yesterday the race was blown to pieces right from the start, all of these guys looked like they were going blow up right from the start. Lots of climbing domestiques found themselves getting dropped on the first climbs. I don't think Saxo could have tried something even if they wanted. 




OldEndicottHiway said:


> I realize that. I've tried to think what they could have done... it would've taken an incredible amount of timing and luck. But if Andy really wants "all or nothing" as he said, he needed a hail mary pass, going 4th and long. Problem is, I don't think his team is/was strong enough for that.
> 
> Just my ponderings here, is all...


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## Creakyknees

OMG they are GUNNING it on the lower slopes


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## PJay

*so, menchov and sanchez are totally in the mix, right?*

so, menchov and sanchez are totally in the mix, right?

along with gunslinger and Schleck?

there is no room for anything other than total effort, which either works, or leads to you getting totally shelled out the back. this will be epic.


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## JohnHemlock

somebody attack somebody!!!


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## nayr497

Watching on EuroSport and the announcers keep on saying how everyone in the pack is nervous and anxious...I know that feeling. "Am I going to make it? Do I have it in my legs to keep up?" A feeling you both hate and love. Always nice to know the pros feel it too

Eck. Yellow bibs for Contador...all the yellow doesn't look so good.

LOVE Kiralenko's (sp.?) hair, the little mullet deal flapping in the back!


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## Creakyknees

go Andy!


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## jd3

I just saw Didi. First time I've seen him this tour.


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## jptaylorsg

*Ryder!*

Hesejdal is hanging with Sanchez and Menchov. Go Ryder!


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## asciibaron

i'm waiting for Andy to give Conti the Lance look back and then motor away.


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## godot

If AS can't shake AC - the match up between Menchov and Sanchez may end up being more fun to watch


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## godot

asciibaron said:


> i'm waiting for Andy to give Conti the Lance look back and then motor away.


that was a different "era" if you know what i mean.......


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## Brad the Bold

This is awesome.

Win, lose, or draw, I love this stage and the battle AS is taking to Contador.


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## nayr497

It is always amazing to me that these guys are all extremely talented cyclists...but even some of the best just can't hang with the two best.

Crazy to be that good, but then just not quite good enough to hang with the best.


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## godot

60 second gap with 6km to go - unreal


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## jd3

This is a bike race!!!!!!!!


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## PJay

*are they at the final steep part yet?*

are they at the final steep part yet?

schleck needs to go for the 2 minutes now or never.


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## godot

hard to imagine him getting 2 minutes in km


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## Creakyknees

2k they are still together


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## shabbasuraj

AS all talk.. no attacks

boring


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## shabbasuraj

AS has failed... CONTY just laughed at him all the way up, as the km rolled away


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## Snakebit

One more big surge coming soon.


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## shabbasuraj

AC: What? where are your attacks?
AS: Huh? I am attacking
(awkward silence)


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## den bakker

Snakebit said:


> One more big surge coming soon.


too late for anything but the stage


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## Creakyknees

fans going wild in the road... get out of the way morons!


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## shabbasuraj

1 km to go... AS has failed.
Sorry CONTY just PWNED him....


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## shabbasuraj

AS nothing... just fast pacemaking.. no attacks... nothing .... SAXO game plan fail.


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## shabbasuraj

Boring.. AS all talk on rest day.. nothing in the tank.. CONTY laughing all the way up.


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## godot

hope AS wins the stage as AC hasn't done much other than mark him


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## shabbasuraj

Conty looks like he is enjoying himself.


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## Snakebit

den bakker said:


> too late for anything but the stage


That's ok. These two both deserve it. separated by a slipped chain, it don't get any better.


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## PJay

*To win GC, AC doesn't have to do anything.*



godot said:


> hope AS wins the stage as AC hasn't done much other than mark him


To win GC, AC doesn't have to do anything.


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## OldEndicottHiway

Schleck was "gifted" at the line.


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## jd3

Anticlimactic.


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## Maximus_XXIV

AC gives AS the stage win. Huge Jacka$$ that he is...


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## shabbasuraj

Stage was gifted... nothing worse than WINNING a gifted stage. AS will now have to put an asterisk on that win....sux.


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## den bakker

Snakebit said:


> That's ok. These two both deserve it. separated by a broken spoke, it don't get any better.


 fixed it for ya.


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## jptaylorsg

Ryder 4th! Nice ride by him!


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## Creakyknees

bummer... he gave his all anyway


nice rides for Hesdahl and Horner


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## PJay

*AC gifts stage, is no longer world's most hated man, wins GC*

AC gifts stage, is no longer world's most hated man, wins GC.

a good day at the office.


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## shabbasuraj

AS got punked... and got punked while talking trash...


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## Maximus_XXIV

Menchov collapsed? I do not see him.


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## godot

Ryder 4th!!!!! sweet

SSanchez gets some time on Menchov


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## skyphix

The smile and wink by AC after the stage was a little cocky, but it was exciting until you realized they weren't going to sprint


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## petalpower

PJay said:


> AC gifts stage, is no longer world's most hated man, wins GC.
> 
> a good day at the office.



Yep.

Even threw in the *wink*:thumbsup: to Schleck afterwards. What a let down.


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## Maximus_XXIV

den bakker said:


> fixed it for ya.


Nah, separated by a neutralized stage...


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## pretender

shabbasuraj said:


> Stage was gifted... nothing worse than WINNING a gifted stage. AS will now have to put an asterisk on that win....sux.


No asterix needed. Andy earned that stage by pulling the entire way. He tried his best to crack Contador but couldn't, and it would have been wrong for Contador to contest the stage win.


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## shabbasuraj

This stage would have more attacks if they took away the first col. .... dumb stage... waste of a tourmalet..


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## petalpower

pretender said:


> No asterix needed. Andy earned that stage by pulling the entire way. He tried his best to crack Contador but couldn't, and it would have been wrong for Contador to contest the stage win.



I think AC could have won today handily. This was damage control from the other day.


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## Maximus_XXIV

pretender said:


> No asterix needed. Andy earned that stage by pulling the entire way. He tried his best to crack Contador but couldn't, and it would have been wrong for Contador to contest the stage win.


Absolutely! :thumbsup:


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## jd3

RS earned their team lead with that one.


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## Maximus_XXIV

They even hugged after crossing the line. How sweet.


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## pretender

petalpower said:


> I think AC could have won today handily. This was damage control from the other day.


I agree that Contador could have won the stage, but IMO couldn't put any serious time into Schleck. He attacked once and Schleck was right there.

Both guys realized they weren't going to crack the other.


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## nayr497

You sure have a lot to say about the "dumb" stage, eh.


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## jptaylorsg

*Sanchez FTW*

After the spill Sanchez took and the pain he was in, to hang in there and even put a few seconds on Menchov. What a great ride!

Talk about HTFU. He embodied that today.


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## pretender

shabbasuraj said:


> This stage would have more attacks if they took away the first col. .... dumb stage... waste of a tourmalet..


The stage would have had more attacks if Contador wasn't already wearing the yellow jersey.


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## PJay

*same as last year, on mentoux*



petalpower said:


> I think AC could have won today handily. This was damage control from the other day.


same as last year, on mentoux; AC held back to help Astana, could have sprung up the slope quicker. As I remember.


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## shabbasuraj

Maximus_XXIV said:


> They even hugged after crossing the line. How sweet.


I saw them kiss too


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## petalpower

pretender said:


> I agree that Contador could have won the stage, but IMO couldn't put any serious time into Schleck. He attacked once and Schleck was right there.
> 
> Both guys realized they weren't going to crack the other.


I dunno. It just seemed to me that when AC attacked, it seemed as if Schleck was on the edge of getting dropped.


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## pretender

petalpower said:


> I dunno. It just seemed to me that when AC attacked, it seemed as if Schleck was on the edge of getting dropped.


Perhaps. I still feel Contador would have added some insurance to his lead if he could have.


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## LWP

I hope some of the people that jump into these threads aren't as negative in their everyday life as they are about everything that happens in the race. It's like people are just hovering over their keyboard waiting to be the first one to say something negative. That was an awesome effort by AS, not "sitting on his arse after talking trash". Did anybody _really_ think he was going to just stroll off and leave AC on a climb? Nobody can do that right now. That was racing the way it should be, a non-stop battle to the top and a handshake at the finish... no drama except that created by forum pundits. Whether AC let AS cross the line first or not, he worked for that win and owes an asterisk to nobody.


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## pretender

LWP said:


> I hope some of the people that jump into these threads aren't as negative in their everyday life as they are about everything that happens in the race. It's like people are just hovering over their keyboard waiting to be the first one to say something negative. That was an awesome effort by AS, not "sitting on his arse after talking trash". Did anybody _really_ think he was going to just stroll off and leave AC on a climb? Nobody can do that right now. That was racing the way it should be, a non-stop battle to the top and a handshake at the finish... no drama except that created by forum pundits. Whether AC let AS cross the line first or not, he worked for that win and owes an asterisk to nobody.


If you don't like strong opinions, maybe the internet just isn't your thing?


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## paredown

The AS --AC duel was a draw --and awesome -- but farther down the field it was sure interesting.

Great finish by Chris Horner & LA. Levi disappeared though..

Astonishing ride by Ryder Hesjedal--he looked ragged as all get out when he finished, but Phil and Paul keep sounding surprised at how he starts every stage looking fresh...


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## shabbasuraj

Stage was gifted .. not a solo flight. A simple slap in the face, especially all the smack talk.... everytime he looks at his palmarès, he will remember the gift.

C'est la vie


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## godot

Good on Chris Horner moves up to 10th on GC


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## shabbasuraj

Ryder what a ride. But will he back here next year? Or is this just a FLUKE.?

( a la BRADLEY WIGGENS '09)


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## shabbasuraj

shabbasuraj said:


> Menchy can take this stage. The guy does have some sick uphill acceleration ability also. Maybe Ryder goes nuts after his new contract, and wins?


Menchy could not hold tuff.. o now he has to fight like heck to get that 3rd.. 

Ryder? new contract? awesome finish! (as predicted)


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## LWP

pretender said:


> If you don't like strong opinions, maybe the internet just isn't your thing?


There's a huge difference between strong opinion and negativity for the sake of negativity. I realize the internet is the safezone where the weak become the bullies and the unintelligent google information so they can sound intelligent when they post but to say Schleck just sat on his arse and didn't try to race today isn't opinion, it's complete bs. To say he has to put an asterisk next to his win because (_maybe_) Contador could have crossed the line first with a little more effort is also bs. Andy pushed it from the bottom to the top and crossed the line first. He won... no disclaimer required.


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## ohpossum

Robbie riding on the back wheel across the line! 

Go Robbie! (heal up quick!)

op


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## shabbasuraj

Cycling is all psychological. CONTY gifted the stage.. sure AS deserved it, (whatever that means) in terms of a GENTLEMENS aggreement.... but Conty gifted it.. and he knows it, and now he has that mental edge.. no one but him himself will benefit from that knowledge.


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## QuiQuaeQuod

shabbasuraj said:


> AC: What? where are your attacks?
> AS: Huh? I am attacking
> (awkward silence)


The whole climb was the attack. AS could not drop AC in an explosive attack, so doing basically a TT up the hill and hoping for a sign of weakness (after a rest day and given the weather) was the only realistic chance he had to get the time gaps he needed to take the GC... given the TT to come.

30 seconds or a minute would not be enough, and unless he somehow broke AC, more time was not going to happen. So what he did was his best (but not good) chance.


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## LWP

shabbasuraj said:


> Cycling is all psychological. CONTY gifted the stage.. sure AS deserved it, (whatever that means) in terms of a GENTLEMENS aggreement.... but Conty gifted it.. and he knows it, and now he has that mental edge.. no one but him himself will benefit from that knowledge.


I didn't say he deserved it, I said he worked for it. I wasn't arguing with the people saying AC gave him the stage, I was arguing with the people saying Schleck sat on his butt and didn't race. That was a non-stop race from the bottom of the climb that destroyed everybody except Contador.


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## nayr497

LWP said:


> I hope some of the people that jump into these threads aren't as negative in their everyday life as they are about everything that happens in the race. It's like people are just hovering over their keyboard waiting to be the first one to say something negative. That was an awesome effort by AS, not "sitting on his arse after talking trash". Did anybody _really_ think he was going to just stroll off and leave AC on a climb? Nobody can do that right now. That was racing the way it should be, a non-stop battle to the top and a handshake at the finish... no drama except that created by forum pundits. Whether AC let AS cross the line first or not, he worked for that win and owes an asterisk to nobody.


Well said and I agree. For some reason the TdF is bringing out a lot of people who can't just enjoy the race but feel the need to be complete jerks. I guess it provides the opportunity to add some folks to my ignore list 

What is normally fun bantering and cheering about cycling in here has suddenly become more like college football trash talking. It's lame.

Nothing like people angry with their 9-5, wife and kids criticizing a guy who just rode up a mountain at that speed


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## shabbasuraj

Ya the TT up the col was an attack.

I still think that altering the pace may have worked a bit... say half way up when he realized that CONTY was in pure wheelsucking mode. 

To UNHITCH some riders, you have to break their mental state, you have to get them thinking about other things then just steady paceline work.

You have to slow it down weave a bit when space permits. Play the chess game, make them nervous, make them wonder what is going on and keep them guessing as to when you might launch an attack.

Clearly TT up a col, is not gonna work with 2 awesome climbers, pacing each other, stride for stride.


----------



## LWP

shabbasuraj said:


> Ya the TT up the col was an attack.
> 
> I still think that altering the pace may have worked a bit... say half way up when he realized that CONTY was in pure wheelsucking mode.
> 
> To UNHITCH some riders, you have to break their mental state, you have to get them thinking about other things then just steady paceline work.
> 
> You have to slow it down weave a bit when space permits. Play the chess game, make them nervous, make them wonder what is going on and keep them guessing as to when you might launch an attack.
> 
> Clearly TT up a col, is not gonna work with 2 awesome climbers, pacing each other, stride for stride.


The next time you're pulling Contador up the Tourmalet, show us how it's done... I missed your last demonstration.


----------



## wiz525

shabbasuraj said:


> Ya the TT up the col was an attack.
> 
> I still think that altering the pace may have worked a bit... say half way up when he realized that CONTY was in pure wheelsucking mode.
> 
> To UNHITCH some riders, you have to break their mental state, you have to get them thinking about other things then just steady paceline work.
> 
> You have to slow it down weave a bit when space permits. Play the chess game, make them nervous, make them wonder what is going on and keep them guessing as to when you might launch an attack.
> 
> Clearly TT up a col, is not gonna work with 2 awesome climbers, pacing each other, stride for stride.


wow. you don't think Andy knows this as well?? to assume he doesn't is just ignorant.


----------



## QuiQuaeQuod

shabbasuraj said:


> Clearly TT up a col, is not gonna work with 2 awesome climbers, pacing each other, stride for stride.


Clearly, track stands and multiple surging attacks did not work earlier in the tour, did it? AC has always had a strength in the number of times he can lift the pace, over and over and over. He showed that all his career, he showed that in this tour. AS had next to no chance today imo, so trying something different had little downside. Other than a lower level of easy to see drama for the viewers.


----------



## albert owen

Wonderful battle. Schleck is significantly better than last year. 
Contador is becoming one of the All Time Greats. He is ruthless, tough as nails and supremely talented. But - above all - he obviously loves racing. 
He is relishing the challenge thrown down by Andy Schleck. So different from the petty internecine rubbish he had to put up with last year.


----------



## thesmokingman

I can't help thinking way back to Stage 8 (iirc) when Andy stopped attacking because he made the deal with AC to not attack. It really is impossible trying to break the best climber on a day he's been building up to. Stage 8 was a lost opportunity.


----------



## shabbasuraj

LOL we all thought AS knew how to operate SRAM double tap shifting also...?


----------



## LesDiablesRouges

Chapeau to Sastre. His move didn't work but had he bridged the gap it's possible he'd would have been in 3rd place right now.

Tactically I think Saxo made the wrong choice. I felt they didn't disguise an attack well enough by waiting until the Tourmalet climb. Schleck had to go for Merckxian type break today.

He'll finish 2nd with Menchov 3rd Sanchez 4th Van Den Broeck 5th

However that being said even using the right tactics it was still going to be hard to drop Contador.


----------



## PJay

*gift is wrong word. maybe deal, or compromise.*

gift is wrong word. maybe deal, or compromise.
contador does not win much by winning by 2 seconds, but he would not have been in position to win by 2 seconds if he had not ridden on Schleck's wheel the whole way up.

It is almost like a stalemate, but where an acceptable outcome is agreed that maximzes the benefit to both, rather than big risk (of big loss) for chance at big gain.

limit chance for big gain, but limit chance for big loss.


----------



## PJay

*with 20/20 hindsight, i think i agree.*



LesDiablesRouges said:


> Chapeau to Sastre. His move didn't work but had he bridged the gap it's possible he'd would have been in 3rd place right now.
> 
> Tactically I think Saxo made the wrong choice. I felt they didn't disguise an attack well enough by waiting until the Tourmalet climb. Schleck had to go for Merckxian type break today.
> 
> He'll finish 2nd with Menchov 3rd Sanchez 4th Van Den Broeck 5th
> 
> However that being said even using the right tactics it was still going to be hard to drop Contador.


with 20/20 hindsight, i think i agree. this would have favored Andy's slow grind to the finish line.

by slow grind, i mean a TT ride to top, not an up-hill leap like typical mountain attacks. please no one jump on my case for a comment inferring "slow" from my comfy desk.


----------



## izzyfly

nice to see two composed, 'relaxed' gentlemen on a tear, leaving a cloud of mist in their wake !


----------



## LostViking

Those two are just to evenly matched on the mountains - sadly, the TT will seal this race.


----------



## physasst

dr hoo said:


> Clearly, track stands and multiple surging attacks did not work earlier in the tour, did it? AC has always had a strength in the number of times he can lift the pace, over and over and over. He showed that all his career, he showed that in this tour. AS had next to no chance today imo, so trying something different had little downside. Other than a lower level of easy to see drama for the viewers.



Exactly. AS cannot match AC's ability to attack on a climb. In fact, I don't think that there is currently a rider alive who can. He can uptempo faster and better than anyone. Even Bruyneel said that about him. AS tried to simply lift the pace to a level that he hoped AC could not maintain. But he could. The whole climb was an attack, and was a thing of beauty to watch.


----------



## thesmokingman

LostViking said:


> Those two are just to evenly matched on the mountains - sadly, the TT will seal this race.


They're not evenly matched, as I'd put money that AC is a slightly better climber. AC's ability to accelerate up steep grades trumps Andy high pacing going up.


----------



## CrazyCuz2K

http://www.letour.fr/2010/TDF/LIVE/us/1700/journal_etape.html#zone162914 

This is AS POV, he did what he could and knew there was no was going to lose AC on the climb. It was a gentleman's agreement that AS accepted from AC giving AS the win for doing all the work up the climb. AS gets the battle and AC gets the war. I know some people can't comprehend it since in America it's all about winning and screwing over your competition but AS was the better rider today and AC acknowledged it. Just as over the three week period AC it'll prove the AC is the better rider, both are even on the mountains but the TT is where AS needs to improve upon to compete with AC. Hopefully time with Cancellera will prove beneficial.


----------



## LWP

physasst said:


> AS tried to simply lift the pace to a level that he hoped AC could not maintain. But he could. The whole climb was an attack, and was a thing of beauty to watch.


^This... I was beginning to think I watched a different race than most of the people here.


----------



## shabbasuraj

CrazyCuz2K said:


> http://www.letour.fr/2010/TDF/LIVE/us/1700/journal_etape.html#zone162914
> Hopefully time with Cancellera's ELECTRONIC CYCLING MOTOR will prove beneficial.


fixed

But ya they are no longer teammates in 2011


----------



## snowman3

shabbasuraj said:


> Stage was gifted... nothing worse than WINNING a gifted stage. AS will now have to put an asterisk on that win....sux.


By that account, the outcome is doomed either way. If AC takes AS at the line, AC gets blasted for sucking wheel most of the climb and then going for a "win". 

No shame at all in winning a gifted stage. They both rode well and one of them chose to let the other guy have the spotlight. Perfectly fine.


----------



## shabbasuraj

True, but watching the vid, CONTY had some more in the tank with 2-3 km to go... 






(allegedly).


----------



## yater

ha.........



> This message is hidden because shabbasuraj is on your ignore list.


----------



## LostViking

*Hair Splitting*



thesmokingman said:


> They're not evenly matched, as I'd put money that AC is a slightly better climber. AC's ability to accelerate up steep grades trumps Andy high pacing going up.


Don't want to get into a hairsplitting contest - but even when two riders are "evenly matched" one will always have a slight edge - but IMHO for all intents and purposes they are even if the one can't consistantly drop the other. 
That said - they are flesh and blood and will have good days and bad ones - not enough head-to-head battles to make the call yet - I'm looking forward to years of these two butting heads on the mountains!


----------



## shabbasuraj

They are actually NOT evenly matched. CONTY can effectively operate SRAM shifting while attacking.












(allegeldy).

AC gave it his best again, but he is a bridesmaid this year.


----------



## shabbasuraj

Now the question will be, Will MENCHY step up to the plate and take second place GC in the ITT, or will SCHLECKY self implode (a la THE CHICKEN) on the final day... 

I think SCHLECKY might find himself off the podium as 50+ km is a serious distance, and the man might get seriously gapped.. like by 90 seconds half way in.


----------



## Brad the Bold

+1 

How many back to back posts does he have in this thread? Obviously he believes that opinions are more valid when repeated loudly and frequently.


----------



## MTBRoad

thesmokingman said:


> I can't help thinking way back to Stage 8 (iirc) when Andy stopped attacking because he made the deal with AC to not attack. It really is impossible trying to break the best climber on a day he's been building up to. Stage 8 was a lost opportunity.


I agree with you 100%. I think Andy had him on the ropes that day and AC knew he was in trouble. He talked the youngster into stopping the attacks and working together. AC won the mental battle that day when he could have lost time. Andy had an opportunity to possibly finish him and he didn't take advantage.


----------



## Salsa_Lover

IMHO Conti is holding back the big cannons.

I haven't seen him really trying to destroy Andy.

just one of two tries and the just pacing.


----------



## 55x11

petalpower said:


> Yep.
> 
> Even threw in the *wink*:thumbsup: to Schleck afterwards. What a let down.


*wink* = translation: You may have won the stage, but that's only because I gifted it. Nice try but you are still my b!ich and I own you - you will see on Saturday.


----------



## shabbasuraj

55x11 said:


> *wink* = translation: You may have won the stage, but that's only because I gifted it. Nice try but you are still my b!ich and I own you - you will see on Saturday.


Maybe not even.. AC is going to be in a world of hurt all by himself. (just saying)


----------



## paredown

jptaylorsg said:


> After the spill Sanchez took and the pain he was in, to hang in there and even put a few seconds on Menchov. What a great ride!
> 
> Talk about HTFU. He embodied that today.


^^ this ^^

He hit on the sternum, knocked the wind out of himself--then paced back up. Then dress the wounds (took some time too, since they had to check his sternum/chest area) & then did not say die.

Awe-inspiring ride!


----------



## Thorlac

shabbasuraj said:


> AS nothing... just fast pacemaking.. no attacks... nothing .... SAXO game plan fail.


You're really quite idiotic to listen to  I am sure Conta think you do him honor 

Andy had the harder job today, since he needed to attack. Defending should be somewhat easier...

So now Conta probably wins the TdF *because* Andy lost the chain after losing Conta a few stages back... Yeah, the "best" rider won, because he attacked the MJ when he had a technical failure 

If you really like Contador as much as it seems - don't dis Andy for this stage, he dropped ALL other riders, but Contador - and Contador *failed* with his single attack, and spend the rest of the time on Andy's wheel.


----------



## 55x11

Thorlac said:


> You're really quite idiotic to listen to  I am sure Conta think you do him honor
> 
> Andy had the harder job today, since he needed to attack. Defending should be somewhat easier...
> 
> So now Conta probably wins the TdF *because* Andy lost the chain after losing Conta a few stages back... Yeah, the "best" rider won, because he attacked the MJ when he had a technical failure
> 
> If you really like Contador as much as it seems - don't dis Andy for this stage, he dropped ALL other riders, but Contador - and Contador *failed* with his single attack, and spend the rest of the time on Andy's wheel.


Andy did his best, with a well-timed attack, and he put in serious time in everyone except Contador. He also was able to stay with Contador when he attacked - and that's after a super-long pull at the front. The two are just too closely matched in terms of climbing. Too bad Andy cannot ITT well, otherwise it would have been exciting all the way till the end.

To another poster - Schleck will not be in danger of losing 2nd to Menchov. But he has no shot at top spot against Contador. The podium is more or less decided.


----------



## QuiQuaeQuod

This might be a good time to mention that the White Jersey exists because riders that young are not EXPECTED to win the GC.

Which means we might be seeing something very special from AS in years to come.


----------



## thesmokingman

The podium was decided after stg 8.


----------



## LostViking

*"El Pistolero is strong, huh?" - Andy Schleck*

@ CrazyCuz2K - Thanks for the link - Andy's interview makes interesting reading:

“I’m satisfied with the stage win but I also wanted to turn white into yellow but unfortunately it wasn’t possible. I really tried hard, you have to believe me about that. I changed rhythm and I tried everything but I think we’re on the same level on the climbs. Alberto attacked and I could go with him – it was a quick response – but in the end he didn’t sprint to win the stage because I did the most work. I have a lot of respect for that, it shows that he’s a great champion. 
“I tried to find out how he was feeling. You need to look at someone to see how he was coping. I think you can find out a lot if you look someone in the eyes. He didn’t have the sunglasses on today so it was possible to see, that’s why I looked so many times. But he always looked good and that’s kind of what killed me. 
“El Pistolero is strong, huh? I could no drop him. He was always there. I wanted to find out if he was getting weak but he didn’t succumb. He even attacked me to show, ‘Hey, listen young boy, I’m still here! You better stop playing these games with me.’ 
“I’m super happy to win this stage today – it’s the Queen stage of this year’s Tour. To win on the Tourmalet is like a win on Alpe d’Huez. 
“When I turned to talk to him, I said: ‘You pass?’ And he didn’t. I would have done the same. Why should he pass me? In the end, he let me win the stage and I’m super happy.”

I think Andy has a great attitude - his time will come.


----------



## WAZCO

dr hoo said:


> This might be a good time to mention that the White Jersey exists because riders that young are not EXPECTED to win the GC.
> 
> Which means we might be seeing something very special from AS in years to come.


Ulrich won it when he was 23 I guess he wasn't expecting to be a GC. Sadly/Greatly that was the only time he won it.


----------



## shabbasuraj

55x11 said:


> Schleck will not be in danger of losing 2nd to Menchov. But he has no shot at top spot against Contador. The podium is more or less decided.


I guess the only position to be decided is third as SAMMY and MENCHY are close. But still 4 min down. But then again, they still have to race. I still think 50 km ITT there can be some wicked gaps.. but then again, the thing is all flat. 

1	Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana	83:32:39 
2	Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank	0:00:08 
3	Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi	0:03:32 
4	Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank	0:03:53


----------



## 55x11

Good news everyone - due to Contador being on track to winning the TdF without winning a single stage (I expect Cancellara to take ITT on Saturday), we are all being spared the horrible, terrible, corny fingerbang salute. Today's gift to Schleck was a signature of a great champion - not so much because he decided NOT to outsprint Andy after wheelsucking for 10K, but because Alberto realizes that public is tired of being finger-banged and he is willing to sacrifice his fingerbanging for the good of the fans throughout the world. This, to me, is what makes someone a great champion.


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## shabbasuraj

LWP said:


> The next time you're pulling Contador up the Tourmalet, show us how it's done... I missed your last demonstration.


Tomorrow morning perhaps?


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## Thorlac

55x11 said:


> Good news everyone - due to Contador being on track to winning the TdF without winning a single stage (I expect Cancellara to take ITT on Saturday), we are all being spared the horrible, terrible, corny fingerbang salute. Today's gift to Schleck was a signature of a great champion - not so much because he decided NOT to outsprint Andy after wheelsucking for 10K, but because Alberto realizes that public is tired of being finger-banged and he is willing to sacrifice his fingerbanging for the good of the fans throughout the world. This, to me, is what makes someone a great champion.


I agree Contador showed class by not trying to win the sprint, after letting AS pull him 10K. I hope he will keep it up


----------



## Thorlac

PJay said:


> with 20/20 hindsight, i think i agree. this would have favored Andy's slow grind to the finish line.
> 
> by slow grind, i mean a TT ride to top, not an up-hill leap like typical mountain attacks. please no one jump on my case for a comment inferring "slow" from my comfy desk.


Honestly - EVERYONE knew AS had - and was going to - attack today. That knowledge alone limits the value of any tactics greatly.


----------



## pretender

Tactics are hugely overrated by a substantial number of regular posters.


----------



## Thorlac

yater said:


> ha.........


Please let me know - how do I ignore him?


----------



## Thorlac

Salsa_Lover said:


> IMHO Conti is holding back the big cannons.
> 
> I haven't seen him really trying to destroy Andy.
> 
> just one of two tries and the just pacing.


You're right - but not because he didnt want to... The ONLY time he left AS behind, was when he passed Andy, while Andy was trying to get his chain back on. Claiming he didn't notice Andy had technical problems is like claiming he was temporary blind.

Imo he couldn't outpace Andy or he would have. He might be the better ITT, but what if he gets a flat or other difficulties? Then 8 seconds wont be a comfortable lead... Karma cuold still decide this Tour  Imho Contador has not proven to be the better rider. Andy won one stage well ahead of Conta, and Conta hasn't been able to drop Andy at any time yet. As said time and again, the ITT might just be it - but for Contador to bet on the ITT *is* a gamble - anyone can get a flat or worse.


----------



## LesDiablesRouges

Thorlac said:


> Honestly - EVERYONE knew AS had - and was going to - attack today. That knowledge alone limits the value of any tactics greatly.


That's the problem really. Schleck and Contador are virutally even except the ITT. 

Schleck needed to be attacking on every mountain stage and with multiple assaults and not just on the last climb. The only way Contador was going to lose the tour to Schleck was if he crashed, or was attacked by sheep, or if Andy caught him with an attack when Contador was having a bad day/moment. Clearly the sheep attack was most effective despite not working ...:biggrin5:


----------



## Thorlac

LesDiablesRouges said:


> That's the problem really. Schleck and Contador are virutally even except the ITT.
> 
> Schleck needed to be attacking on every mountain stage and with multiple assaults and not just on the last climb. The only way Contador was going to lose the tour to Schleck was if he crashed, or was attacked by sheep, or if Andy caught him with an attack when Contador was having a bad day/moment. Clearly the sheep attack was most effective despite not working ...:biggrin5:


But that leaves us with the fact, that the only stage Conta took time from AS, was when AS lost his chain... I really don't like LA much, but I don't think he ever won a Tour *that* way.


----------



## nate

Thorlac said:


> But that leaves us with the fact, that the only stage Conta took time from AS, was when AS lost his chain...


Incorrect.


----------



## pretender

Thorlac said:


> But that leaves us with the fact, that the only stage Conta took time from AS, was when AS lost his chain...


Contador put 42 seconds into Schleck in the 9km prologue.


----------



## thesmokingman

pretender said:


> Contador put 42 seconds into Schleck in the 9km prologue.


It's hard to make the case for AS making any dent into AC's bid for the overall when AC can drill into AS silly numbers in the TT. It's just silly. AS needs to go home and get some motors or really friggen train for TT.


----------



## karatemom

Yeah, he lost 42 seconds in a 9K time trial--what's the ITT on Saturday? 50K? So, Andy could lose, like, 7 minutes? I hope Andy still realizes that he's awesome after the ITT--he needs to train harder. And I know all you AC haters are disappointed he did the classy thing today--if Andy gets along so well with the guy who just beat him, surely the rest of us can cut him a break.


----------



## shabbasuraj

karatemom said:


> Yeah, he lost 42 seconds in a 9K time trial--what's the ITT on Saturday? 50K? So, Andy could lose, like, 7 minutes? I hope Andy still realizes that he's awesome after the ITT--he needs to train harder. And I know all you AC haters are disappointed he did the classy thing today--if Andy gets along so well with the guy who just beat him, surely the rest of us can cut him a break.


For this reason, SAMMY and MENCHY can actually ride right by SCHLECKY over 50km. Weirder things have happened.


----------



## yater

Thorlac said:


> Please let me know - how do I ignore him?


Click on his name and hit "ignore so-and-so" (I don't remember his name).


----------



## pretender

karatemom said:


> Yeah, he lost 42 seconds in a 9K time trial--what's the ITT on Saturday? 50K? So, Andy could lose, like, 7 minutes? I hope Andy still realizes that he's awesome after the ITT--he needs to train harder.


That's silly math and a silly conclusion to make. Contador beat Schleck by 1:44 in last year's ITT. A 50km time trial is vastly different from a 9km prologue.

I'm pretty sure that Schleck trains hard enough, and his time trialing will improve with age.


----------



## dwgranda

Contador gets along with all the guys in the peloton. I'm sure Boonen would give him a break, we should too.


----------



## pretender

yater said:


> Click on his name and hit "ignore so-and-so" (I don't remember his name).


Using the ignore button is dorky enough, but telling the world you did only encourages the guy.


----------



## shabbasuraj

dwgranda said:


> Contador gets along with all the guys in the peloton. I'm sure Boonen would give him a break, we should too.


+1 lol


----------



## shabbasuraj




----------



## nayr497

What is going on with that photo of Boonen and Contador? 

I've never seen that...is it real or a fake? Sea World after winning the Super Bowl?


----------



## BobH

Maybe Andy can arrange to have the "Attack Sheep" in the ITT...


----------



## tinkerbeast

dwgranda said:


>


ahh... a lesser known uci pro tour race: the dolphin-e libere

that dolphin seems to be attacking contador.. wonder if his chain came off


----------



## nayr497

Anyone have the video of the final 10 kms? Keski normally posts them...must be out riding today. I can't always find them on youtube.

Ah ha ha the Dolphin race, I see


----------



## M-theory

Thorlac said:


> But that leaves us with the fact, that the only stage Conta took time from AS, was when AS lost his chain... I really don't like LA much, but I don't think he ever won a Tour *that* way.



In addition to the prologue, Conti also took 10 seconds from Andy on the stage where he passed Vino, costing Vino the stage. Everybody was annoyed that Contador attacked his own team-mate and argued that the 10 second gain on Schleck wasn't worth it. But it does prove that AC was able to attack and gain some time. Whereas Schleck gained all his time on the controversial stage 3 cobblestones where Conti broke a spoke.


----------



## Salsa_Lover

Thorlac said:


> You're right - but not because he didnt want to... The ONLY time he left AS behind, was when he passed Andy, while Andy was trying to get his chain back on. Claiming he didn't notice Andy had technical problems is like claiming he was temporary blind.
> 
> Imo he couldn't outpace Andy or he would have. He might be the better ITT, but what if he gets a flat or other difficulties? Then 8 seconds wont be a comfortable lead... Karma cuold still decide this Tour  Imho Contador has not proven to be the better rider. Andy won one stage well ahead of Conta, and Conta hasn't been able to drop Andy at any time yet. As said time and again, the ITT might just be it - but for Contador to bet on the ITT *is* a gamble - anyone can get a flat or worse.


Conti put 30 second on Andy at the prologue. ( Conti 27", Andy 57" )

Andy got 73 seconds on Conti at the 3rd Stage on the pavés thanks to Frank's crash and Conti's mechanical ( Andy 4h 49' 38", Conti 4h 50' 51" )

This is the main fact, this is what gave the half minute advantage to Andy that allowed him to get the Yellow later on.

they exchanged 10 seconds one climbing stage each.

Conti took 39 seconds on Andy thanks to the dropped chain event, remember here that Andy had took 73 thanks to Conti's mechanical.

This put Conti on the lead by 8'

So in fact they are mano a mano, the race is even although Conti still has a deficit of 34seconds due to mechanicals in this race.


----------



## ultimobici

Salsa_Lover said:


> Conti put 30 second on Andy at the prologue. ( Conti 27", Andy 57" )
> 
> Andy got 73 seconds on Conti at the 3rd Stage on the pavés thanks to Frank's crash and Conti's mechanical ( Andy 4h 49' 38", Conti 4h 50' 51" )
> _(While riding full gas to take the jersey from Chavanel who had flatted)_
> This is the main fact, this is what gave the half minute advantage to Andy that allowed him to get the Yellow later on.
> 
> they exchanged 10 seconds one climbing stage each.
> 
> Conti took 39 seconds on Andy thanks to the dropped chain event, remember here that Andy had took 73 thanks to Conti's mechanical.
> 
> This put Conti on the lead by 8'
> 
> So in fact they are mano a mano, the race is even although Conti still has a deficit of 34seconds due to mechanicals in this race.


Interesting that Contador was vilified for his actions in the Pyrenees yet Saxobank's actions on the pavé didn't raise so much as a peep.


----------



## 55x11

Salsa_Lover said:


> Conti put 30 second on Andy at the prologue. ( Conti 27", Andy 57" )
> 
> Andy got 73 seconds on Conti at the 3rd Stage on the pavés thanks to Frank's crash and Conti's mechanical ( Andy 4h 49' 38", Conti 4h 50' 51" )
> 
> This is the main fact, this is what gave the half minute advantage to Andy that allowed him to get the Yellow later on.
> 
> they exchanged 10 seconds one climbing stage each.
> 
> Conti took 39 seconds on Andy thanks to the dropped chain event, remember here that Andy had took 73 thanks to Conti's mechanical.
> 
> This put Conti on the lead by 8'
> 
> So in fact they are mano a mano, the race is even although Conti still has a deficit of 34seconds due to mechanicals in this race.


Contador did not lose time on pave due to the spoke - that problem developed much later in the race, when he was already in the second group chasing Andy, Cancellara etc. In fact for a while when peloton got split up (something that was expected to happen by the way) he was in third group, behind Armstrong and Popo, who were in second group on the road. Cancellara, Hushovd, Evans and Andy were riding on the front, which is part of the pre-race strategy (since it also costs a lot more energy). It wasn't exactly man-to-man competition, more like teammate competition (Vino vs. Cancellara, as well as Voigt and O'Grady driving the front group before) and strategy - but definitely not simply due to mechanical.

To the other poster below (asking why there's no outrage that Schleck and Cancellara didn't wait for Contador when the splits started forming on pave): This is quite different situation as opposed to benefiting from a random case of bad luck, such as Andy's dropped chain, or Sanchez crashing badly today. I don't see why it's so difficult for some people to understand. For example, Contador, Menchov and Schleck could have all attacked when Sanchez was on the ground today, effectively eliminating him from top 10 on GC. Technically it would be perfectly within the rules to do so. Doesn't mean it would have been the right thing to do.


----------



## ultimobici

55x11 said:


> To the other poster below (asking why there's no outrage that Schleck and Cancellara didn't wait for Contador when the splits started forming on pave): This is quite different situation as opposed to benefiting from a random case of bad luck, such as Andy's dropped chain, or Sanchez crashing badly today. I don't see why it's so difficult for some people to understand. For example, Contador, Menchov and Schleck could have all attacked when Sanchez was on the ground today, effectively eliminating him from top 10 on GC. Technically it would be perfectly within the rules to do so. Doesn't mean it would have been the right thing to do.


I wasn't referring to Saxobank attacking Contador at all.
I was pointing out that Schleck had Cancellara driving hard when the Jersey holder Chavanel suffered two mechanicals, including a spectator "helping" by removing the wrong wheel.
Why is Contador wrong and Schleck given a pass?


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## 55x11

ultimobici said:


> I wasn't referring to Saxobank attacking Contador at all.
> I was pointing out that Schleck had Cancellara driving hard when the Jersey holder Chavanel suffered two mechanicals, including a spectator "helping" by removing the wrong wheel.
> Why is Contador wrong and Schleck given a pass?


Seriously?

Because Chavanel was nowhere close to Schleck when he flatted (I believe he flatted 3 times). He was well off-the-back, not in Schleck-Cancellara-Evans-Hushovd group.
Because Schleck did not "attack" Chavanel the moment Chavanel flatted - he was going at the same rate as he would otherwise.
Because mechanicals on pave are common, expected and part of the pre-race strategy (do you ride on pave or do you ride in the ditch, etc.). 

And frankly, at that moment Schleck did not even care about taking time out of Chavanel, only about taking time out of Contador, Armstrong, Menchov etc. Chavanel's position was simply NOT a factor in Schleck's riding strategy.

Previous day in Spa when everyone was sliding on oil, the small surviving peloton was right NOT to attack and take advantage of it, since the oil and multiple crashes were NOT expected, and therefore added a random element that would have severely affected the outcome of the whole Tour. The cobbles in the Arenberg stage were an expected element, as were splits in the field and to large extent the mechanicals. Including cobblestones in Arenberg was a bad idea, in my opinion, but once included, they can only be raced under the general strategy of classics like Paris-Roubaix or Flanders - where nobody waits if Cancellara breaks his chain, Hushovd crashes or Hincapie loses his steerer. Once incorporated, cobbles then become an element of the race, like crosswinds or mountains.
They should have allowed Hushovd to sprint in Spa, though - that was a dumb decision that may cost him green in the end.


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## LostViking

Just saw the finish on VS.

Normally I think the word "Epic" is totally overused - but that was amazing. A battle of champions with a shroud of fog thrown in for effect - epic!


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## atpjunkie

*a great battle*

AS did what he could and was checked at every move
Contador thought he could spring away but Andy rode right back to his wheel
Contador did the class move at the line
these 2 are leagues better than the rest
the TT will show who the better of the 2 is


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## Ventruck

*Sorry if I'm ignant of similar posts*



Salsa_Lover said:


> IMHO Conti is holding back the big cannons.


But I agree with this. How I break it down:

-Today was testing the waters for AC once he found himself distant from Menchov and Sanchez. All he had to do was observe AS the whole time, while saving himself for anything that might need the greater portion of his legs for the other stages. 

-His "test" was the attack. I don't look at AC's move as some type of nulled attempt to break Andy. If anything, he was going to see if AS was responsive at all with a a higher (not highest) tempo because if not, AC would likely proceed and land that as his "move". Apparently AS was still functioning well enough, so AC didn't make that breakaway last long since it didn't seem so worthwhile - or at least a pushover to still be hot on other stages. 

-That being said, AC didn't prioritize extending his lead, or taking the stage for that matter. He is the better judge of Schleck's condition, but I assume he's confident given the observational fact that AS was looking a bit worn compared to himself. Time was put into Menchov and Sanchez, who are arguably the bigger threats in the upcoming stages.

The stage was a success for both riders despite the lack of a "show" or putting time on each other. They spaced themselves from Menchov and Sanchez, and both riders were able to evaluate each other...although I'm thinking AC has things more in favor. With AC last in the TT line-up, his effort is going to be entirely judged the two guys below Schleck. Quite frankly, without a mechanical or cramp, AC can take this Tour with just those 8 seconds if he wanted. He virtually can not lose in a non-mountain stage against AS.

Note: stress that "IMO" applies all over my post.


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## moabbiker

shabbasuraj said:


> Now the question will be, Will MENCHY step up to the plate and take second place GC in the ITT, or will SCHLECKY self implode (a la THE CHICKEN) on the final day...
> 
> I think SCHLECKY might find himself off the podium as 50+ km is a serious distance, and the man might get seriously gapped.. like by 90 seconds half way in.


Menchov is a serious TT threat but with the 3.75 minute gap, I think AS is pretty safe. One reason today I think AS didn't attack & play games but instead kept a steady pace is because he really had Menchov on the radar more than AC. 

AS isn't a clumbsy TT'er just he doesn't get into an ideal aero position so loses boatloads of time.


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## ilmaestro

ultimobici said:


> Interesting that Contador was vilified for his actions in the Pyrenees yet Saxobank's actions on the pavé didn't raise so much as a peep.


What's interesting is that you'd imply they are analogous. They are not. Going into the cobbles it was said clearly ahead of time that nobody would wait, that the race was on, after having equalized the race the day before.

What happened on the climb was #2 attacking #1 after a mechanical directly in front of him on one of the most crucial moments of the entire tour. A little different.


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## Mapei

godot said:


> AC and AS prove they're the class of the GC contenders, finish together ahead of the rest. AC "gifts" the stage to AS as a bit of an apology for Tuesday, and then gets ripped on RBR.


Wow. You're the Amazing Kreskin. Karnak the Magnificent. The Oracle of Delphi.


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## il sogno

Thorlac said:


> But that leaves us with the fact, that the only stage Conta took time from AS, was when AS lost his chain... I really don't like LA much, but I don't think he ever won a Tour *that* way.


He took 10 seconds with his attack in Mende.


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## ultimobici

55x11 said:


> Seriously?
> 
> Because Chavanel was nowhere close to Schleck when he flatted (I believe he flatted 3 times). He was well off-the-back, not in Schleck-Cancellara-Evans-Hushovd group.
> Because Schleck did not "attack" Chavanel the moment Chavanel flatted - he was going at the same rate as he would otherwise.
> Because mechanicals on pave are common, expected and part of the pre-race strategy (do you ride on pave or do you ride in the ditch, etc.).
> 
> And frankly, at that moment Schleck did not even care about taking time out of Chavanel, only about taking time out of Contador, Armstrong, Menchov etc. Chavanel's position was simply NOT a factor in Schleck's riding strategy.
> 
> Previous day in Spa when everyone was sliding on oil, the small surviving peloton was right NOT to attack and take advantage of it, since the oil and multiple crashes were NOT expected, and therefore added a random element that would have severely affected the outcome of the whole Tour. The cobbles in the Arenberg stage were an expected element, as were splits in the field and to large extent the mechanicals. Including cobblestones in Arenberg was a bad idea, in my opinion, but once included, they can only be raced under the general strategy of classics like Paris-Roubaix or Flanders - where nobody waits if Cancellara breaks his chain, Hushovd crashes or Hincapie loses his steerer. Once incorporated, cobbles then become an element of the race, like crosswinds or mountains.
> They should have allowed Hushovd to sprint in Spa, though - that was a dumb decision that may cost him green in the end.


My issue is not that Saxobank rode hard on the cobbles, rather that Contador is vilified for not sitting up when AS cocked up a gearshift. 

Nothing broke, he hadn't flatted, as Ryder Hesjedal said "If you draw your sword and you drop it, you die". AC didn't attack to profit from AS's misfortune. He had been attacked by AS and was responding. Hence my contention that there is a double standard.


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## Salsa_Lover

^^^ this

and to complement Ventruck's post.

Seems that the Conti attack wasn't to really leave Andy behind, but to tell Andy, who was going full gas and changing tempo to try to tire AC, "hey look at me, I have plenty of gas left"


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