# Any reason to think Conty won't win 7?



## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

He's got 2 and had he raced last year he'd be up to 3. Who is coming up through the ranks that could challenge for the TDF title in the next several years. About the only way he looks beatable is if he fails a control or gets caught up in the politics.

Tony Martin?
A Schleck?
Mini-Phinney?


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

if he change team and the teams sucks like silence lotto... maybe lose few mins in ttt?


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## novagator (Apr 4, 2002)

Assuming he's got 2 now (which is a good assumption, but not a given) he still has 5 more to win...a lot can happen to derail him getting 5 more. That's the thing about LA, like him or not, 7 Tours is an incredible feat given all that can go wrong in cycling.


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## bas (Jul 30, 2004)

he can win 10-12.

but my best guess is that the metal in his brain causes his brain to explode and he'll die of a brain swelling.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

Well 55 riders have tried to win 7 tours and only one has succeeded. I think thats a good reason.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tour_de_France_winners


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## lousylegs (Jul 15, 2005)

Who knows? Certainly looks to have the talent to win several more, especially the way that he has won other grand tours already. 

Question is, will he focus just on the Tour like Armstrong or will he have a more rounded focus?


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

contador won all the 3 grand tour

or can i say that lance has 7 grand tour win,contador has 3 and potentially 4?

he won both giro and vuelta in 1 single yr(2008)


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

culdeus said:


> He's got 2 and had he raced last year he'd be up to 3.


Currently, he only has one.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Any reason why he won't win 18?

One step at a time cowboy. Jeez, is this the interwebs?

fc


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

mohair_chair said:


> Currently, he only has one.


Exactly. And based on 1997, one could argue Ulrich would have had 7-12 Tour wins by now. A lot can happen in the next few weeks and definitely in the next few years. In 7 years Contador will be challenged by someone who is currently 15 or 16 years old.


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## philoanna (Dec 2, 2007)

I think it will be more impressive to win 7 grand tours instead of just 7 tours de france. I would give so much more credit to LA had had at least one win ( or competed in) another GT. Not including this year Giro, which I was happy to see him do.
I said it before, and I'll say it agian, the Tour de France is not the hardest GT.
Look at how many former GT winners were in the top 20 at this years Giro. I am not sure Dirty Bertie would have had an easy time at this years Giro.
Can anyone explain why everyone thinks the Tour is the hardest race in the world. If you start talking about mountains, I'll probably easily find you a harder mountain in th Vuelta and the Giro.
I am not trying to diminish 7 Tour wins. But do you see Roger Federer win only on grass, or clay, or hard surface?
I can go on.
I get so tired of hearing about LA being the best cyclist ever.


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## team_sheepshead (Jan 17, 2003)

AC's challenge will be finding a team that fits him when Astana blows up. There's no way Astana will survive this internecine war. AC doesn't want to ride with LA and LA doesn't want to ride with AC. Who does Johann want to direct? AC or LA? 

And when LA bolts, will Levi, Zubeldia, Popo and Johann go with him?


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

Depends on the testing improvements.  

Winning 7 takes a team, luck, skill, courses that favor your strengths, focus, lack of injury, lack of untimely mechanicals, lack of accidents, as well as relies on your competition being beatable by what you bring. Any one of those can derail the effort.

He certainly has the talent....as to everything wlse, we will see.

len


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

philoanna said:


> Can anyone explain why everyone thinks the Tour is the hardest race in the world. If you start talking about mountains,


The TdF is the hardest race because it attracts the best racers. Its both the strength and depth of the competition who are attracted by the money that goes with winning.


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

team_sheepshead said:


> AC's challenge will be finding a team that fits him when Astana blows up. There's no way Astana will survive this internecine war. AC doesn't want to ride with LA and LA doesn't want to ride with AC. Who does Johann want to direct? AC or LA?
> 
> And when LA bolts, will Levi, Zubeldia, Popo and Johann go with him?


Yep. Where Contador lands will be the biggest factor.

If Andy Schleck learns how to time trial he will be a formidable opponent for years to come. Plus, he is on a bang-up team.

Nibali will also probably become a strong opponent.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

baker921 said:


> The TdF is the hardest race because it attracts the best racers. Its both the strength and depth of the competition who are attracted by the money that goes with winning.


Bingo.

Not only the best teams, but the best racers on those teams.

I personally think the Giro is more entertaining, but for pure difficulty of the competitiion it's the Tour hands down.

Len


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Len J said:


> Not only the best teams, but the best racers on those teams.


Normally, I'd agree with this. But not last year, when the Tour didn't invite Astana. Astana was clearly the best stage racing team in cycling in 2008, and excluding them from the Tour lowered the competition dramatically.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

mohair_chair said:


> Normally, I'd agree with this. But not last year, when the Tour didn't invite Astana. Astana was clearly the best stage racing team in cycling in 2008, and excluding them from the Tour lowered the competition dramatically.


True enough...but that is the exception...year after year, with few exceptions, the competition is toughest at the tour.

len


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

It might shake out in this one, but Contador hasn't been nearly as dominant in his GT wins as Armstrong was, which makes him seem more beatable.

Much, much more likely a doper will be caught these days. Then again McQuaid guarantees Conti is clean, so it would seem no passport problems in his future. OP seems to be good and dead in Spain.

Armstrong was fantastically lucky to never have illness or injury take away a Tour or two. What's the chance Conti will be as fortunate?

I'd say very, very long shot he will win 7 TdFs, reasonably likely he'll win as many or more GTs than Armstrong.


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## Fixed (May 12, 2005)

*Pantani?*



culdeus said:


> He's got 2 and had he raced last year he'd be up to 3. Who is coming up through the ranks that could challenge for the TDF title in the next several years. About the only way he looks beatable is if he fails a control or gets caught up in the politics.
> 
> Tony Martin?
> A Schleck?
> Mini-Phinney?


Contador's riding style reminds me a lot of Pantani. How many did he win?


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

this yr giro definately more entertaining than tdf so far...

if contador go to saxobank,he got the firepower for sure but saxobank concentrating on andy for now..


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## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

Dwayne Barry said:


> It might shake out in this one, but Contador hasn't been nearly as dominant in his GT wins as Armstrong was, which makes him seem more beatable.


This is only because of the short TTs and the lack of mountain finishes.


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## cpark (Oct 13, 2004)

novagator said:


> Assuming he's got 2 now (which is a good assumption, but not a given) he still has 5 more to win...a lot can happen to derail him getting 5 more. That's the thing about LA, like him or not, 7 Tours is an incredible feat given all that can go wrong in cycling.


He has a good shot if he stays away from Jan Ullrich's off season diet plan......


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## enac (Aug 24, 2007)

culdeus said:


> He's got 2 and had he raced last year he'd be up to 3. Who is coming up through the ranks that could challenge for the TDF title in the next several years. About the only way he looks beatable is if he fails a control or gets caught up in the politics.
> 
> Tony Martin?
> A Schleck?
> ...


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Fixed said:


> Contador's riding style reminds me a lot of Pantani. How many did he win?


Their styles might be similar, but they couldn't be more different as riders.


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## Fixed (May 12, 2005)

*performance*



mohair_chair said:


> Their styles might be similar, but they couldn't be more different as riders.


Their abilities and performances seem similar, is what I meant. How are they different, other than that thing we won't mention here in this particular forum?


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

culdeus said:


> This is only because of the short TTs and the lack of mountain finishes.


All of the GTs he's won have been like that?


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## masterken911 (Jun 17, 2009)

i think andy schleck will give ac some battle when ac turns 30 while schleck enters his prime age, say 3 years from now?? i think ac will win about 5 tdf and 3 tour of spain when all said and done and he ( ac ) and big miggie will be debate as the spain's great cyclist.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Fixed said:


> Their abilities and performances seem similar, is what I meant. How are they different, other than that thing we won't mention here in this particular forum?


Pantani often rode on emotion and could be reckless in his pursuit of wins or revenge. Contador is cool and calculated and rarely shows any emotion at all. The silent assassin.


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## Fixed (May 12, 2005)

*really?*



mohair_chair said:


> Pantani often rode on emotion and could be reckless in his pursuit of wins or revenge. Contador is cool and calculated and rarely shows any emotion at all. The silent assassin.


Did you see Contador yelling at all the spectators close by on the climb yesterday? Looked like he was about to punch them. He looks very wound up on the podium, too. Not so sure he's not equally emotional.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

philoanna said:


> I think it will be more impressive to win 7 grand tours instead of just 7 tours de france. I would give so much more credit to LA had had at least one win ( or competed in) another GT. Not including this year Giro, which I was happy to see him do.
> I said it before, and I'll say it agian, the Tour de France is not the hardest GT.
> Look at how many former GT winners were in the top 20 at this years Giro. I am not sure Dirty Bertie would have had an easy time at this years Giro.
> Can anyone explain why everyone thinks the Tour is the hardest race in the world. If you start talking about mountains, I'll probably easily find you a harder mountain in th Vuelta and the Giro.
> ...


Winning 7 TdFs is far more impressive than winning 7 Giros or 7 Vueltas, and also more impressive than winning a random assortment of grand tours. The Tour is still far more difficult and prestigious to win than Vuelta or Giro. I am sure even Menchov, Simoni, Cunego, Heras, Savoldelli, Garzelli and Vino will agree - they would gladly trade everything they won for a single Tour victory.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

culdeus said:


> He's got 2 and had he raced last year he'd be up to 3. Who is coming up through the ranks that could challenge for the TDF title in the next several years. About the only way he looks beatable is if he fails a control or gets caught up in the politics.


1. He doesn't have '2' yet.
2. When he gets to 5 TDF wins, then it will be time to speculate; about whether he'll get 6...


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

History. If he can even join the 5 time winners, that would be massively impressive. 

One bad crash, one serious health issues, one bad team choice, any chronic injury issues, develops a love of strudel . .


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## El Caballito (Oct 31, 2004)

A.C. + Johan Bruyneel = at least 7


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## Tschai (Jun 19, 2003)

philoanna said:


> Can anyone explain why everyone thinks the Tour is the hardest race in the world. If you start talking about mountains, I'll probably easily find you a harder mountain in th Vuelta and the Giro.


Regardless of which has the harder stages, the fact that 11 of the last 13 Giro winners were Italian pretty much answers your question.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

Coolhand said:


> History. If he can even join the 5 time winners, that would be massively impressive.
> 
> One bad crash, one serious health issues, *one bad team choice*, any chronic injury issues, develops a love of strudel . .


I somehow don't see Contador ending up in a team like AG2R. I see him more with Caisse d'Epargne. Valverde can have the Ardennes classics and maybe a few one week races sprinkled in and Contador can have his grand tours. Conti works for Valv at LBL and Valv (if invited) works for Conti at the TdF.


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Conti's position in the sport for years to come will have a lot to do with the team he picks. The LA, JB combination has been the dominate team for 10 years. If they continue, and I think they will, Conti best think twice before he leaves them.


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## terzo rene (Mar 23, 2002)

If ASO keeps flattening the courses he's got no chance at all. Plus all it will take is some relative to get stopped at a border and it's all over even if Puerto is dead and buried.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

For Conti to get 7 or 8 TdFs, he really needs IMO Johan behind him. Johan knows how to build GC-heavy teams. He has never had strong one-day race/Classics teams, it's all stage racing for Johan. That distinguishes him from Bjarne Riis (Saxo) and Stapleton (Columbia) who are the other two powerful teams in the peloton. 

I would imagine Conti is going to look at Caisse d'Epargne but I doubt they have the budget to take the last year on his contract.


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

masterken911 said:


> i think andy schleck will give ac some battle when ac turns 30 while schleck enters his prime age, say 3 years from now?? i think ac will win about 5 tdf and 3 tour of spain when all said and done and he ( ac ) and big miggie will be debate as the spain's great cyclist.


AC is 25. They are basically the same age.


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## nsw2516 (Jul 21, 2009)

As good as Contador is...refresh my memory....but didn't Rasmussen have his number before he got pulled??

How long before another Rasmussen comes along...and doesn't get pulled??


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## waldo425 (Sep 22, 2008)

I think that he could do it if he stays with a good team and wants to devote himself to the tour. Nothing right now says otherwise. Although, theres some very promising riders coming up that will give him hell (which I wouldn't have it any other way --- less boring.)


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Contador, IMO, will also start to focus on the Tour actually. He seems to be only keen on this one race IMHO. He was bummed he couldn't race the tour last year, but that's a given since he was the champion the year before.

But, he clearly states he wants to focus on it this year. And I think should he win, he'lll want to defend it for sure. He doesn't really care about the other tours at all. Not even the Liege where he could actually win.

He'll go for it. But it's not a given if he'll win it.

But damn, he looks like a Lance Armstrong in the way he rides and attacks and he can TT very well now too. He'll only get better if everything goes well. Oh and, he'll also learn to ride smarter and be more cerebral like Lance is I suppose.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

uzziefly said:


> Contador, IMO, will also start to focus on the Tour actually. He seems to be only keen on this one race IMHO.


Isn't he supposed to race the Vuelta this year?


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

I am a huge Contador fan. He rides full of emotion and spirit and he loves to race.
Will he win 7? I think not. His kind of personality is adrenelin driven and the lights will surely go out in a couple of years I think. Like Indurain he will dominate for a while yet and then live happily ever after.
Armstrong is a completely different kettle of fish. He won 7 because he is driven by ego and that massive chip on his shoulder. He's been proving a point for years and can't stop.


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## monocognizant (Sep 12, 2008)

I don't see Conti being the leader that Armstrong is/was. To win 7 "consecutive" tours takes more than just strength. Maybe if he gets on the right team but, otherwise I don't see it. He's going to have a bullseye on him and without a strong team he's not going to be able to defend himself.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Isn't he supposed to race the Vuelta this year?


I didn't think so. Could be wrong. Seems to be a trend now that riders wanna do 2 GTs.


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## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

I really hope he does not focus on the TdF. It just isn't right. I'd be more impressed if he went and won more events, the 3 GTs in succession, etc. 

5 TdFs plus Giros and Vueltas: I think he would rather be compared to Eddy Merckx than LA.


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## nsw2516 (Jul 21, 2009)

monocognizant said:


> I don't see Conti being the leader that Armstrong is/was. To win 7 "consecutive" tours takes more than just strength. Maybe if he gets on the right team but, otherwise I don't see it. He's going to have a bullseye on him and without a strong team he's not going to be able to defend himself.



Yep....most people overlook Armstrong's management/leadership skills....there will always be super-talented riders (eg Ulrich)...but to do what Armstrong did requires a lot more than just being a super-talented rider...


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## wipeout (Jun 6, 2005)

albert owen said:


> He won 7 because he is driven by ego and that massive chip on his shoulder.


Yeah, right... That "chip" is called cancer.


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## masterken911 (Jun 17, 2009)

El Caballito said:


> A.C. + Johan Bruyneel = at least 7


i thought ac is 27, not 25.


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## vandalbob (Dec 13, 2001)

I think Contador can win several. He's certainly shown his talent in winning three grand tours so far. He'll need some luck along the way; what multi-time winner hasn't had some luck? Look how quickly Jens went down today. That could be any of the other racers, including Contador.


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