# RBR TdF 2018 Predictions! Post by Start Time 2018



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

RBR TdF 2018 Predictions! Post by Start Time 2018

Hello, everyone. Since we are all so smart about road racing, let's show it off: post your predictions before start time for the 2018 Tour de France. Talk is cheap. Can you call it a month before the final stage? A year?

At the end of the 2018 TdF, I will review how well we did. Historically, we have been pretty lousy, with some moments of brilliance.

Bon chance!

Call first, or try first, second, or third-
Yellow/Podium/GC:
Green/points:
Polka-Dot/climber:
White/youth:
Red/combatif:
Team:

Lantern Rouge:
DNF:
Brown/Douche:
Honorable Mention:


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Ok, I will start:

LA!


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

PJay;5169841[/QUOTE said:


> Thanks PJay! Never too soon, hahaha!
> 
> Lets get started before we even see start lists and course details!
> 
> ...


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Froome double this year?*

Froome double this year? Giro and Le Tour?
Or, will his asthma keep him down?


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## azpeterb (Jun 1, 2006)

Louis Meintjes is going to shock the world!!


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## gofast2wheeler (Oct 13, 2011)

Nairo Yellow.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Waiting on the startlist.

Thinking Froome gets his double this year. 
Then a ruling comes down from the CAS and we get to see how consistent/inconsistent the UCI is.


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## KoroninK (Aug 9, 2010)

Also waiting on start list.

However for a different prediction: Landa and Quintana end up in a war with each other and Valverde finishes higher in GC than both of them.


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## mapeiboy (Oct 31, 2007)

Chris Froome , TDF , World race champ . Triple crown .


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## spdntrxi (Jul 25, 2013)

Dan Martin


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

I plan on making a run at our TdF Velogames competition, so I won’t give up all my “secrets” here (which would only likely result in you finishing mid table anyway  ). 

I will go out on a limb and say Froome doesn’t end up racing the TdF. The people that run Le Tour are some of the most influential people in the sport in my opinion and I say they push the right buttons to get a decision before the start. I also think he further damaged people’s opinion about whether he is racing clean by coming back to win the Giro the way he did. I bet alarms are going off for the TdF planners. 

Hinault: Chris Froome should not have started the Giro, he should be suspended | Cyclingnews.com

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features...ome-and-trying-to-understand-the-unbelievable

Other than that, I expect good rides from Bardet, Landa, Quintana, Roglic, Gaviria, Sagan, etc.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Right on queue, ASO may block Froome from the TdF.

https://cyclingtips.com/2018/05/rep...nisers-to-try-to-block-froomes-participation/


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## redlizard (Jul 26, 2007)

My podium is Aru, Bouhanni and Boonen (not necessarily in that order).


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

No way can Froome do the double unless he's inhaling like crazy. 

Gaviria in Green. 

I'll have to think about the rest of the jerseys and placings.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Metaphorically pacing back-and-forth waiting for the finalized Start List...


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## 9W9W (Apr 5, 2012)

KoroninK said:


> Also waiting on start list.
> 
> However for a different prediction: Landa and Quintana end up in a war with each other and Valverde finishes higher in GC than both of them.


You are, if nothing else, consistent as hell!
Long live King Valverde


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## 9W9W (Apr 5, 2012)

redlizard said:


> My podium is Aru, Bouhanni and Boonen (not necessarily in that order).


This would be like the tour of the redeemers, all three need a hail mary to pacify their handlers.


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## 9W9W (Apr 5, 2012)

Rashadabd said:


> I plan on making a run at our TdF Velogames competition, so I won’t give up all my “secrets” here (which would only likely result in you finishing mid table anyway  ).
> 
> I will go out on a limb and say Froome doesn’t end up racing the TdF. The people that run Le Tour are some of the most influential people in the sport in my opinion and I say they push the right buttons to get a decision before the start. I also think he further damaged people’s opinion about whether he is racing clean by coming back to win the Giro the way he did. I bet alarms are going off for the TdF planners.
> 
> ...


I feel like with Froome deeply disappointing even his critics, it may be time to root for the most boring rider in the pro peloton... Quintana.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2018/startlist


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

TdF 2018 begins Saturday, July 07, at 11:10 local time / CET. That time zone is 6 hours ahead of Eastern Time.
So, 11:10 am CET would be 5:10 am Eastern, 6:10 Central, 7:10 Mountain, 8:10 Pacific.

So, get predictions in before 5:10 Eastern Time!


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

spdntrxi said:


> Dan Martin


Wouldn't that be nice.


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## jetdog9 (Jul 12, 2007)

Sagan wins a stage at most but still comes away Green.


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## KoroninK (Aug 9, 2010)

Time for picks:

Call first, or try first, second, or third-
Yellow/Podium/GC: Nibali
2) Bardet
3) Fuglsang
Green/points: Garviria
Polka-Dot/climber: Majka
White/youth: Jungels
Red/combatif: Latour
Team: Movistar

Lantern Rouge: Rowe
DNF: Kittle
Brown/Douche: Bouhani (is there really another option)
Honorable Mention: Valverde and I Izagirre (they both came back from career threatening injuries and are back at the Tour where those injuries occurred).


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Well, I was so wrong about the Froome getting banned thing.... 

With that being said, he has to be the favorite (as painful as that is to say). No team in the World Tour has the kind of depth they do (and the expertise at using it well). Thomas, Kwiatkowski, and Bernal could all be protected GC riders on other teams. He could easily win again, which is tragic on some levels. 

Movistar has good depth as well, but it seems to be more of a source of conflict than it is a strength for them at the moment. If they can get on the same page, and support one guy 100%, they could be dangerous as well. 

I still think a couple of these experienced GC guys that have had prior grand tour success will give Sky a run for their money. I think Dumoulin, Nibali, Uran, and Quintana are the strongest contenders here IMO. 

As for younguns and less provens, I like Bardet, Alaphillipe, Roglic, Jungles, Yates, Dan Martin, and Zakarin.

When it comes to sprinters, I am all in on Sagan and Gaviria, but I like Colbrelli, Mathews, Groenwegen, Demare, as well for this course. 

My dark horse surprise pic is Martinez for EF Drapac. I think he is on the verge of a breakout this year or next. 

Guys likely to disappoint are Mollema, Cavendish, Greipel, Kittel, TVG, GVA, and Porte. I could be wrong and for some of them, I hope I am, but it's not looking good as of right now.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Rashadabd said:


> Well, I was so wrong about the Froome getting banned thing....
> 
> With that being said, he has to be the favorite (as painful as that is to say). No team in the World Tour has the kind of depth they do (and the expertise at using it well). Thomas, Kwiatkowski, and Bernal could all be protected GC riders on other teams. He could easily win again, which is tragic on some levels.
> 
> ...


Maybe I wasn’t wrong after all:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/aso-try-to-block-chris-froome-from-racing-tour-de-france/


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## coldash (May 7, 2012)

Rashadabd said:


> Maybe I wasn’t wrong after all:
> 
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/aso-try-to-block-chris-froome-from-racing-tour-de-france/


Maybe, maybe not. The general view seems to be that Sky / Froome will win the appeal. As for the actual race, I just want to see some real racing even if it turns out to be the three Movistar team mates against each other and don’t really care who wins - as long as it isn’t Bardet


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## gofast2wheeler (Oct 13, 2011)

Chris banned by ASO see if they can get it overturned. Bullshit. ASO concerned with their image and the TDF, are you kidding me. Does anybody think they did not know about Lance doping, money rolling in during that time due to the whole Lance story. They turned a blind eye. Look at Trek they were built on Lances name your telling me they didn't know what was going on but money rolling in. As soon as it came public they disassociated from him. I think trek should be banned from TDF for ever because they aided doping how's that sound. Froome has a medical condition cut the guy some slack. For an experiment we should do a pacibo and control group of riders one gets salbutmaul other group gets flavored air. Have them ride a big mountain then switch groups and see what there times look like. I truly believe this medication gives nobody an edge but allows then to breath like a person who is not effected by asthma.


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## DaveG (Feb 4, 2004)

Rashadabd said:


> Well, I was so wrong about the Froome getting banned thing....
> 
> With that being said, he has to be the favorite (as painful as that is to say). No team in the World Tour has the kind of depth they do (and the expertise at using it well). Thomas, Kwiatkowski, and Bernal could all be protected GC riders on other teams. He could easily win again, which is tragic on some levels.
> 
> ...


The last couple of years I really haven't had anyone to root for. But if Froome is allowed to ride, I will root against him. If there is such a thing as Karma, maybe he'll have a bad day. Unfortunately I think both the Giro and Tour will have asterisks next to the winners name


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

gofast2wheeler said:


> Chris banned by ASO see if they can get it overturned. Bullshit. ASO concerned with their image and the TDF, are you kidding me. Does anybody think they did not know about Lance doping, money rolling in during that time due to the whole Lance story. They turned a blind eye. Look at Trek they were built on Lances name your telling me they didn't know what was going on but money rolling in. As soon as it came public they disassociated from him. I think trek should be banned from TDF for ever because they aided doping how's that sound. Froome has a medical condition cut the guy some slack. For an experiment we should do a pacibo and control group of riders one gets salbutmaul other group gets flavored air. Have them ride a big mountain then switch groups and see what there times look like. I truly believe this medication gives nobody an edge but allows then to breath like a person who is not effected by asthma.


It always amazes me how many Pro Cyclists have asthma … you would think for world class athletes, they would have well functioning bodies. However, it seems the % is off the charts when compared to the general population … kind of interesting.

I see similar results at local events … always surprises me when I show up to a local race and see all the inhalers being used before the race starts.

Who knew asthmatics were drawn to cycling?  :idea: :mad2:


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## coldash (May 7, 2012)

Wookiebiker said:


> It always amazes me how many Pro Cyclists have asthma … you would think for world class athletes, they would have well functioning bodies. However, it seems the % is off the charts when compared to the general population … kind of interesting.
> 
> I see similar results at local events … always surprises me when I show up to a local race and see all the inhalers being used before the race starts.
> 
> Who knew asthmatics were drawn to cycling?  :idea: :mad2:


Actually, given the extreme nature of the endurance aspect of cycling and other like sports, it doesn’t surprise me all that much especially given that these guys get repeated medical examination that will pick up this and other things at an early stage. 

In general medicine / health matters the number of people with some conditions e.g. bicuspid aortic valve, CLL etc is increasing year on year simply because they are being picked up thru routine medicals before they become symptomatic. These conditions are much more prevalent in the general population than previously thought. The more medical examinations that are done, the more we find out. It also explains why some chronic cancer survival rates are improving. The people concerned aren’t actually living longer but their condition is being picked up at an earlier age and they are aware of the condition for a greater number of years.


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

coldash said:


> Actually, given the extreme nature of the endurance aspect of cycling and other like sports, it doesn’t surprise me all that much especially given that these guys get repeated medical examination that will pick up this and other things at an early stage.
> 
> In general medicine / health matters the number of people with some conditions e.g. bicuspid aortic valve, CLL etc is increasing year on year simply because they are being picked up thru routine medicals before they become symptomatic. These conditions are much more prevalent in the general population than previously thought. The more medical examinations that are done, the more we find out. It also explains why some chronic cancer survival rates are improving. The people concerned aren’t actually living longer but their condition is being picked up at an earlier age and they are aware of the condition for a greater number of years.



You make some excellent points and they are well founded. Endurance athletes are at some level of greater risk for developing asthma. But the numbers are staggering. 40% of pro cyclists vs 8% of general population. This is just a news article but it is a helpful overview of the topic, I think. 


http://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/latest-news/the-truth-about-cycling-and-asthma-317941


That said, there is good research supporting the PED effect in non-asthmatic athletes. I wouldn’t make accusations of outright malpractice by sports docs. But THERE IS a PED effect and therefore it would be an advantage to being diagnosed. I am not certain of the amount of wiggle room in making a diagnosis. I’ll look into it and my docs at work. It requires a TUE because it is a PED. It is a banned substance for a reason. Finding a way to employ its advantages would be in a riders interest. 


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10912897


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

ASO might be actually playing for a stalemate until the TdF starts and then it will be too late. Froome can appeal away, but the Tour will have started. 

Tour de France organiser to block Chris Froome from racing - Cycling Weekly


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

Rashadabd said:


> ASO might be actually playing for a stalemate until the TdF starts and then it will be too late. Froome can appeal away, but the Tour will have started.
> 
> Tour de France organiser to block Chris Froome from racing - Cycling Weekly


I am truly ambivalent about this... From a race perspective I would love to watch a tour without him in it. From a cycling perspective, you want to see dopers caught and dealt with. But from a rational perspective, I think that it is inconceivable that he not be able to race. All we know is leaked information. Everyone deserves the protection of a fair process. If he is banned then he is cheated of one of the most basic protections offered anywhere governed by the rule of law. But I’d love to see it...


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

PBL450 said:


> I am truly ambivalent about this... From a race perspective I would love to watch a tour without him in it. From a cycling perspective, you want to see dopers caught and dealt with. But from a rational perspective, I think that it is inconceivable that he not be able to race. All we know is leaked information. Everyone deserves the protection of a fair process. If he is banned then he is cheated of one of the most basic protections offered anywhere governed by the rule of law. But I’d love to see it...


It’s a nice sentiment and I get what you are saying, but his rights have to balanced against ASO’s and I am confident they will mount a fairly strong argument that their product could be irreparably harmed by allowing him to proceed with the issue unresolved. The real culprit is the UCI. They have to get better at resolving these things consistently and in a timely manner. Especially given that other riders have recently been suspended for excess amounts of the same drug.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

I just set up a Froome TdF 2018 doping discussion thread in the Doping Forum.
Enjoy!

Now, back to Predictions talk.

(Attempts to change topic...) How has Valverde physical recovery gone?


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## 9W9W (Apr 5, 2012)

there's only one person qualified to answer the Valverde question.... that one user who stalks him level 11. We await.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

PJay said:


> I just set up a Froome TdF 2018 doping discussion thread in the Doping Forum.
> Enjoy!
> 
> Now, back to Predictions talk.
> ...


Here you go:

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/...ing-2017-tour-crash-heading-years-race-384494

But you want us to make predictions about the race without discussing the fact that the 4X winner and defending champion might be banned from competing????


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

Rashadabd said:


> Here you go:
> 
> https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/...ing-2017-tour-crash-heading-years-race-384494
> 
> But you want us to make predictions about the race without discussing the fact that the 4X winner and defending champion might be banned from competing????


He will be there... I certainly understand the position of the organizers, but what we know is only leaks and that I see all... I’ll be happy to eat my words. My question is, the three headed hydra? How does Movistar Work this?


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

PBL450 said:


> *He will be there...* I certainly understand the position of the organizers, but what we know is only leaks and that I see all... I’ll be happy to eat my words. My question is, the three headed hydra? How does Movistar Work this?



We'll see. I don't really see what grounds Sky has to appeal it....Heck I don't understand why Sky are appealing to the French Olympic Committee and not civil courts. The ASO's rule cited for justification is much more of a "standards/moral" clause than a sporting matter. On this side of the pond, ASO's case would fairly well be a slam dunk.

What would be funny (and great)...is if Sky played hardball, and ASO retaliated by kicking all of Sky out, and re-invited Team Aqua Blue Sport back in their place.


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## KoroninK (Aug 9, 2010)

PJay said:


> I just set up a Froome TdF 2018 doping discussion thread in the Doping Forum.
> Enjoy!
> 
> Now, back to Predictions talk.
> ...


He's recovered fine. However, he's not going into the Tour at or near peak and has no intention on being near peak during the Tour. The National Championships you could see that. His TT was a bit off, and a closer to inform Valverde should have been able to go with Gorka when he attacked. The Tour isn't one of his goals, however that doesn't mean he won't end up with a top 10 GC out of it.


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## coldash (May 7, 2012)

Better add Froome back into your possible winners list

UCI statement on anti-doping proceedings involving Mr Christopher Froome



> The UCI has considered all the relevant evidence in detail (in consultation with its own experts and experts from WADA). *On 28 June 2018, WADA informed the UCI that it would accept, based on the specific facts of the case, that Mr Froome’s sample results do not constitute an AAF.* In light of WADA’s unparalleled access to information and authorship of the salbutamol regime, the UCI has decided, based on WADA’s position, to close the proceedings against Mr Froome.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

coldash said:


> Better add Froome back into your possible winners list
> 
> UCI statement on anti-doping proceedings involving Mr Christopher Froome



Back on schedule to be yet another boring GC non-contest. Oh well.

Only thing worse is having to listen to English language commentators want to verbally-grope Froome.


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

PSA FWIW just read W. Keldeman is out of TdF.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## KoroninK (Aug 9, 2010)

Marc said:


> Back on schedule to be yet another boring GC non-contest. Oh well.
> 
> Only thing worse is having to listen to English language commentators want to verbally-grope Froome.


Actually a reason to not bother watching this year's Tour.


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## OhSnap (Jun 21, 2012)

With the new Cannondale SS isn't Riggo the clear favorite? Maybe? Prob not??


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## 9W9W (Apr 5, 2012)

OhSnap said:


> With the new Cannondale SS isn't Riggo the clear favorite? Maybe? Prob not??


Only if fixed gear. 

I actually thought long and hard about putting him on the inhalers!, ultimately I decided against it.


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## AlanE (Jan 22, 2002)

I've been predicting Julian Alephelippe to win a grand tour at some point in his career, so he's my pick until he does.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

1. Bardet
2. Landa
3. Froome

Green/points: Sagan

Polka-Dot/climber: Quintana


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## OhSnap (Jun 21, 2012)

1. Rigo
2. Landa
3. Porte

Green...Peter
Polka....Barguil


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

TdF '18 has begun! Predictions closed! After the penultimate stage, I will review our predictions, and see how smart we really are about pro cycling.

Bon chance! Allors!


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Bump. I am figuring out now how well we have done...


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Predictions Results:

Assuming that, per usual, Overall Podium does not change on final ride into Paris, here is how we did on Predictions. For the various categories, noted in order from earliest/farthest out prediction:

Overall, it looks like PBL450 would have won the most money, if he were a betting man.

All three podium places: 1 Thomas, 2 Dumoulin, 3 Froome
no one

Two podium places, correct place:
no one

Two on Podium, one in correct place:
PBL450: "Yellow/Podium/GC: Froome 2nd- Dumoulin 3rd- Landa"

One on podium, correct place:
Moontrane: "1. Bardet 2. Landa 3. Froome"

One on podium, not correct place:
no one

Green: Sagan
jetdog9
Moontrane
OhSnap

Polka Dot: Alaphilippe
no one

White: Latour
no one

Team: Movistar
KoroninK

Red: Landa
no one

Honorable mentions:
PBL450: "DNF: Kittle"
KoroninK: "DNF: Kittle"
redlizard: "My podium is Aru, Bouhanni and Boonen (not necessarily in that order)."
il sogno: "No way can Froome do the double unless he's inhaling like crazy."
KoroninK: "Honorable Mention: Valverde and I Izagirre (they both came back from career threatening injuries and are back at the Tour where those injuries occurred)."
Marc: "Back on schedule to be yet another boring GC non-contest. Oh well."


Kiss of Death Prediction:
Rashadabd: "Guys likely to disappoint are Mollema, Cavendish, Greipel, Kittel, TVG, GVA, and Porte. I could be wrong and for some of them, I hope I am, but it's not looking good as of right now."

---Thanks for playing! See you next year!!


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