# So, who will Andy's biggest competition be in the 2011 TDF?



## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I'm kind of excited to to think of a little more competition this year. Who might give Andy a run for his money? Is there potential for a duel, or will Andy be the clear overall favorite; head and shoulders over everyone else?


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Great question. Is there a climber who can hang with him for most of the race...yes. The question I see is will there be someone with ITT skills good enough to cause him a problem and still maintain the climbs? Sanchez? Roche? Evans?


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## frpax (Feb 13, 2010)

His biggest competition?

UCI Doping watchdogs! LOL!!!

No, I actually like the young Schleck boy. He is the clear cut favorite at this point. Evans seems likely, since he's sitting out a lot of the Spring races and (supposedly) focusing on the TdF this year. Sanchez could give him a good run...


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## pagey (Oct 30, 2009)

Richie Porte maybe Cadel


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Ivan Basso.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

I think former winner Sastre could give him a run or maybe 3rd (2nd) place from last year and multi time GT winner Menchov ..... oh wait. Hold on what was that about more competition?


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

davidka said:


> Ivan Basso.


Ditto for Basso. If on good form, Basso is the biggest threat by far.
Cadel too. 

Plus Sammy Sanchez, Frank the Schleck and new kids: Gesink, Janez Brajkovic, Kreuziger, Van den Broeck. Is Niebali doing only Giro? What about Scarponi and Arroyo? Joaquin Rodriguez? Someone will step up.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

his shifters.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

55x11 said:


> Ditto for Basso. If on good form, Basso is the biggest threat by far.
> Cadel too.
> 
> Plus Sammy Sanchez, Frank the Schleck and new kids: Gesink, Janez Brajkovic, Kreuziger, Van den Broeck. Is Niebali doing only Giro? What about Scarponi and Arroyo? Joaquin Rodriguez? Someone will step up.


I think Nibali is focusing on the Giro, rest during the Tour, and again during the Vuelta. Attempting the double would seem to be too much of a long shot these days. 

It will be interesting to see how the 2011 TdF plays out. The AC/AS alliance seemed boring, but it allowed them to work together and put a lot of space between the #3 and #4 riders, which made it easier for them to duke it out later and not have to worry about the other riders. 

It will be interesting to see how Kreuzinger does on his own since he's mostly been riding as support for the GC guys. Maybe Vino will get to ride on his own. 

I'm not sure what Radio Shack has planned. Brajkovic seems good and Horner might have another year or two left, provided he doesn't crash out. With the two Robbys, will they focus more on stage wins? 

Not to focus on the doping aspect, but when Contador wasn't there in 2008, there was some pretty bad doping going on. 

Regardlss, this could be good or awesomely bad.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Basso and Evans. They're both not doing past errors of trying to race the Giro competitively first, they're putting all their energy into the Tour.


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## 196nautique (Sep 23, 2005)

I think he is losing lots of sleep worrying about Tom Danielson.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Dan Gerous said:


> Basso and Evans. They're both not doing past errors of trying to race the Giro competitively first, they're putting all their energy into the Tour.



Minus one ugly crash, Cadel may have won the tour last year anyway. He's my pick for this tour.

My dark horse is (go easy on me here) Horner.


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## WAZCO (Sep 16, 2004)

32and3cross said:


> I think former winner Sastre could give him a run or maybe 3rd (2nd) place from last year and multi time GT winner Menchov ..... oh wait. Hold on what was that about more competition?


Both are not doing the TDF this year since their team didn't make to cut. Unless Riis hire one or both them to replace AC. I doubt Sastre would want to work for Riis again.


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

Andy's biggest competition is himself and whether he can "Will" himself or get over the mental issues he has delt with over the past couple of years of finishing 2nd place.

If he can do that, especially if Frank stays healthy and can ride with him for the entire race...it's more who will be 2nd. There are plenty of challengers that in Basso, Evans, Menchov, etc.


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## mcfly (Feb 19, 2004)

if basso is on form i think he will be the one closed to schleck, i dont think cadel can hang if schelck desides to go...he and liphimmer are about the same, they just dont attack in the tour...they more like follow and hang on and wait for someone to crack and i dont think schleck will crack....excuse the spelling errors! love him or hate him LA attacked even when he was wearing yellow...the past couple of tours you just dont see guys attack the way he did and thats what you have to do to win the tour.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

WAZCO said:


> Both are not doing the TDF this year since their team didn't make to cut. Unless Riis hire one or both them to replace AC. I doubt Sastre would want to work for Riis again.


Right Im being sarcastic here, the Tour is already shaping up to be a farce of sorts thanks to its organizer.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

32and3cross said:


> Right Im being sarcastic here, the Tour is already shaping up to be a farce of sorts thanks to its organizer.


exclude Saxo Bank (they have no real contenders for anything - Ritchie Porte, come on!), and include Sastre/Menchov.


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## rollinrob (Dec 8, 2002)

Last I heard both Menchov and Sastre were not going to the Tour since their team has NOT been selected for the Tour!

Taken from Cylcing news..
Geox-TMC's participation in the event this year. The Spanish team has already been excluded from the Tour de France although race director Julian Guillen stated separately that Alberto Contador would be welcome at the race.

Geox-TMC's two captains have both done well in the Vuelta in the past; Denis Menchov won the race in 2005 and 2007 while Carlos Sastre has finished on the podium three times.


I think it will be a Basso, Nibali, Schleck, or Gesink to take the podium this year.


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## Undecided (Apr 2, 2007)

196nautique said:


> I think he is losing lots of sleep worrying about Tom Danielson.


I was just thinking that this is his year. He's a star for the future.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

55x11 said:


> exclude Saxo Bank (they have no real contenders for anything - Ritchie Porte, come on!), and include Sastre/Menchov.



Agreeded exclude Saxo AND/OR Astana IMHO to at least follow suit what they did with Astana after the last doping screwup (Vino).


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Basso. Dude has the package to get it done over three weeks, nothing spectacular just solid in all aspects and a stellar team. Mostly he's just unflappable amidst all the pressure, which is huge for the Tour.


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## PDex (Mar 23, 2004)

196nautique said:


> I think he is losing lots of sleep worrying about Tom Danielson.


^^^This^^^

You heard it here, second.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

If everybody sits around and just marks him like the tour has been recently, he wins. If teams keep putting him under pressure keep attacking, then somebody may get lucky. Sanchez, Basso, and Evans will challenge. Garmvelo will be interesting. VDV and Hesjedal are not really attacking style riders, but I don't think you'd want to let either on up the road.


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## otiebob (Jun 25, 2002)

JohnHenry said:


> his shifters.


HAHA - Well played.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

I think that if Andy and Frank stay healthy, the fight is for second or third with most of the likly contenders lining up: Basso, Evans, Frank and Menchov (if Riis, or someone else, can get him out of his contract).

I'll go out on a limb and call it:
TdF Podium -
1) Andy S.
2) Frank S.
3) Cadel E.


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## tinkerbeast (Jul 24, 2009)

Andy is a tactical idiot... this time when he decides to play waterboy in yellow i'm pretty he'll get boonen'd


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Likely candidates: Basso, Evans, and perhaps Sammy if he's in shape. 

Menchov and Sastre can't attend, to which Menchov would've been a serious threat since he would've had Sastre to pace him for support and throw everyone off balance. It's an absolute disgrace for the tour not to invite them!

We'll see what Cadel can do. He still has a solid two years or so left in his career so maybe he'll do it this time, we'll see.

Also, don't rule out Gesink. Now that he's free to dominate Menchov's old team, and Freire likely to sit out the Tour, he will have full team support.


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

I've had a mancrush on him since I started riding in 2006. Basso FTW. Evans 3rd.

Then again, something weird will happen and Evans will drop to 58th place by the 12th stage.


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

Possible would be, 
Sanchez
Sastre
Evans
Hushovd
his brother Frank
Menchov

And those younger riders who won the stages on the last TDU.


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

1) CVV
2) Danielson
3) Wiggins

You heard it here first.


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## felix5150 (Mar 15, 2009)

thechriswebb said:


> Minus one ugly crash, Cadel may have won the tour last year anyway. He's my pick for this tour.
> 
> My dark horse is (go easy on me here) Horner.


I'm hoping Cadel has a good tour this year and is also my pick. I had the opportunity to speak with Horner in December, and he mentioned he wanted to focus on the Giro while levi's here in CA for the TOC. If that happens, doubtful he would be rested enough for the tour.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

moabbiker said:


> Menchov and Sastre can't attend, to which Menchov would've been a serious threat since he would've had Sastre to pace him for support and throw everyone off balance. It's an absolute disgrace for the tour not to invite them!
> 
> .



I agree. Four Grand Tours between the two of them and no invite. Absurd.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

felix5150 said:


> I'm hoping Cadel has a good tour this year and is also my pick. I had the opportunity to speak with Horner in December, and he mentioned he wanted to focus on the Giro while levi's here in CA for the TOC. If that happens, doubtful he would be rested enough for the tour.


I would love to see Horner do well in the Giro, but the competition will be tough. Now that Menchov and Sastre are planning to work together in the Giro, I think the dynamic of the race will be different. That said, I think Horner is a bit underrated. No crashes and he will be competitive.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Wonder if Ricco will be back for the tour.

Vacansolelil has a spot there, wonder if boy wonder will give it a shot.

IF he is back, he could be a solid candidate for the podium.


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## Mr. Scary (Dec 7, 2005)

Armstrong.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

LostViking said:


> I think that if Andy and Frank stay healthy, the fight is for second or third with most of the likly contenders lining up: Basso, Evans, Frank and Menchov (if Riis, or someone else, can get him out of his contract).
> 
> I'll go out on a limb and call it:
> TdF Podium -
> ...



I don't see Frank on the podium. He is great in the mountains, but not so great (Pantani, Rasmussen) that he can offset his very poor TT skills. There are plenty of guys in this race whose combination of mountain and TT skills outweigh Frank's pure climbing ability (Leipheimer, Evans, Horner, maybe Basso). He will probably be in the top ten. 

Again, I think it is TOTAL bull that Menchov and Sastre didn't get invited. :mad2: 

Between the two of them: 
4 GT victories including all 3 GTs
10 Podium finishes
16 Top five finishes
22 Top ten finishes
2 Mountains Classifications
1 Young Rider Classification
1 Combination Classification
14 GT Stage wins

Does any other professional team have that much consistent Grand Tour talent on their team?


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## nathanbal (Feb 23, 2009)

Frank will work for Andy anyway.

Andy, Cadel and Basso will gun it out.


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## tgregory00 (Dec 2, 2010)

Menchov
Hesjedal
F. Schleck*


*If you know, he doensn't die on a TT.


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## RRRoubaix (Aug 27, 2008)

Mr Scary said:


> Armstrong


TOTALLY!!
:lol:




tgregory00 said:


> Menchov
> Hesjedal
> F. Schleck*
> 
> ...


Errr... you're aware that Menchov won't be at Le Tour, yes? Sad, yes, but his team, Geox, was inexplicably not invited so ASO could invite such luminaries as Saur-Sojasun instead. 
(insert thumbs-down emoticon here)


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

This just in!

"Italy's La Gazzetta dello Sport reported today that Saxo Bank's owner, Bjarne Riis may contract 33-year-old Menchov. Riis built his team for a Grand Tour leader, last year it was Andy Schleck and this year it was to be Alberto Contador."

Might have to change my TdF podium prediction!

Read more: http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/7...ontadors-spot-at-Saxo-Bank.aspx#ixzz1CZKLccOb


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## Mark Kelly (Oct 27, 2009)

As long as Cadel doesn't end up in yellow at the end of the first week (like he did last year) he's a real chance. Andy can out - climb him, Cadel can out - everything - else Andy. If he does end up in yellow early he'll have to lose it, his team's not strong enough to defend for that period of time. I just hope team management let him lose it by some method other than the crash and burn route.

That being said, whoever wins the "queen stage" up Alpe d'Huez usually wins the tour and it's hard to see Cadel beating Andy and Ivan Basso up that monument. On the other hand I can't see Andy winning it either, unless the team manages it the way CSC launched Carlos Sastre in '08 but everyone will be wise to that one now.

If Ivan's team works together the way they did in last year's Giro, he's going to be really tough to beat. We know he has the capacity to win super tough climbs - witness him on the Zoncolan last year.

My heart says Evans, Basso, Schleck but I fear it's more likely Basso, Evans, Schleck.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Mark Kelly said:


> As long as Cadel doesn't end up in yellow at the end of the first week (like he did last year) he's a real chance. Andy can out - climb him, Cadel can out - everything - else Andy. If he does end up in yellow early he'll have to lose it, his team's not strong enough to defend for that period of time. I just hope team management let him lose it by some method other than the crash and burn route.
> 
> That being said, whoever wins the "queen stage" up Alpe d'Huez usually wins the tour and it's hard to see Cadel beating Andy and Ivan Basso up that monument. On the other hand I can't see Andy winning it either, unless the team manages it the way CSC launched Carlos Sastre in '08 but everyone will be wise to that one now.
> 
> ...


Schleck gotta be a favorite. Basso is a close second, and Evans third. 
Basso was really impressive in last year's Giro, but it is TdF that counts. Schleck's two second place finishes should make him a favorite. He knows how to peak for it. Basso needs to time it right. Evans is a better time trialer than the other two, but: a) Schleck will probably improve some more this year (as they all do) and b) Evans is a bit flaky sometimes and could lose a big chunk of time at one of the mountain stages, once he cracks.


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## Mark Kelly (Oct 27, 2009)

55x11 said:


> Schleck gotta be a favorite. Basso is a close second, and Evans third.
> Schleck's two second place finishes should make him a favorite.


A favourite, yes. The favourite, I'm not so sure. To me, he's too reliant on one strength (climbing) and has too many weaknesses (TT, tactical nous, toughness, bike handling).

Don't forget Evans has also twice finished second and Basso has finished second and third.


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

Plus Evans is on the wrong side of 30 vs A. Schleck who is 25 turning 26. Andy has much more upside and will only get stronger.


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## DarkoBWM (May 29, 2010)

Tony Martin


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

tranzformer said:


> Plus Evans is on the wrong side of 30 vs A. Schleck who is 25 turning 26. Andy has much more upside and will only get stronger.


To Mark Kelly: this ^^^^

Basso lost his ability to accelerate in the mountains the way he did when he was , let's just say "younger". Evans never had it - he tried to attack more recently but it's not even on the same level as Contador/Schleck attacks. Both Basso and Evans are grinders now, while Schleck has the ability to "fly" up the mountain with a sudden surge. He can put substantial time on those two if he is in top shape. Basso's and Evans' second place finishes were a few years back, and they are going over the hill and down, whereas Schleck is still young and is still improving. Time Trialing is a big weakness for him, still, but a year can bring a lot of improvement. Let's not forget he beat Contador at last ITT. I think Schleck is THE man to beat.

I wonder how Menchov enters the calculation, if he joins Saxo. He is by no means favorite but could be in the mix for 3rd place, or higher if someone falters.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

tranzformer said:


> Plus Evans is on the wrong side of 30 vs A. Schleck who is 25 turning 26. Andy has much more upside and will only get stronger.


There have been WAYYYYY more over 30 winners than under 26 winners.


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

OnTheRivet said:


> There have been WAYYYYY more over 30 winners than under 26 winners.


Evans will be 34 next month. There are quite a few young riders who are quality GT condeners: Nibali, Gesink, Van den Broeck, Igor Anton, A Schleck...etc. It has been a long time since there have been so many quality/talented young riders. 

I don't know this answer but how many TdF winners have won their first title at the age of 34 or older? Bet you there have been more first time winners under the age of 30 for their first win (in the modern era). Just don't see Evans doing it this year.


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

Just did some quick research: 

Youngest winner: age 20 (Henri Cornet, 1904) 
Oldest winner: age 36 (Firmin Lambot) 

Now looking at the last 40 years of winners and at what age their first win took place: 

Merckx: 24
Luis Ocana: 28
Bernard Thevenet: 27
Van Impe: 29
Bernard Hinault: 23
Zoetemelk: 33
Laurent Fignon: 22
LeMond: 25
Roche: 27
DelGado: 28
Indurain: 27
Riis: 32
Ullrich: 23
Pantani: 28
Armstrong: 27
Pereiro: 28
Contador: 24
Sastre: 33

Out of the 18 winners since 1969, 0 riders have won their first TdF at the age of 34 or older. That is 0/18= 0%. 15/18 were under the age of 30 for their first win= 83%. 

It will be very very very hard for Evans to win his first title at age 34 as the past 40 years have shown. He is one year older than last year, which means his body doesn't heal itself quite the same, you don't have quite the same endurance, you don't have quite the same strength, you don't have quite the same explosive acceleration out of the saddle, you don't do quite as well in the mountains. Now A. Schleck will have 1 more year of experience in his legs and his body will be in better shape and stronger than in years pass. Except for a catastrophic crash on A. Schlecks part, there is no way on earth Evans can hold his wheel. Not to mention the fact that Andy has a stronger GT team behind him than Evans does with BMC.


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## The Weasel (Jul 20, 2006)

55x11 said:


> Joaquin Rodriguez?


He would actually be my best bet with Andy and Basso battling for second.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Basso.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

tranzformer said:


> Just did some quick research:
> 
> Youngest winner: age 20 (Henri Cornet, 1904)
> Oldest winner: age 36 (Firmin Lambot)
> ...


+ Andy Schleck, 25 (winner of 2010 TdF)


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

55x11, I hadn't heard any indications by ASO/TdF that made it official that Contador was stripped of his 2010 title, so I left it off. But once it is official, you are correct.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

tranzformer said:


> 55x11, I hadn't heard any indications by ASO/TdF that made it official that Contador was stripped of his 2010 title, so I left it off. But once it is official, you are correct.


One other thing - Andy has already won three white jerseys at TdF, joining Jan Ulrich as the only two people who did it. 
Also, FWIW, if/when Contador is stripped of 2010, he will have won yellow and white at the same time - similar feat to Ulle'97 and Contador'07. I just hope he doesn't follow in their footsteps...


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## ChilliConCarnage (Jun 1, 2006)

55x11 said:


> ...Also, FWIW, if/when Contador is stripped of 2010, he will have won yellow and white at the same time - similar feat to Ulle'97 and Contador'07. I just hope he doesn't follow in their footsteps...


Getting caught?


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

ChilliConCarnage said:


> Getting caught?


haha thats what i was thinking


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Schleck won't win in 2011, he'll be 2nd again. He hasn't got the ability to lead, he's a follower who needs towing.
His best chance is for this year's winner to fail a test, then he "wins" two in a row.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

albert owen said:


> Schleck won't win in 2011, he'll be 2nd again. He hasn't got the ability to lead, he's a follower who needs towing.
> His best chance is for this year's winner to fail a test, then he "wins" two in a row.


So who will be first then?

Andy Schleck's problem is not that he is a "follower". In both 2009 and 2010 he was the one pushing at the front most of the time. It is just that Contador (and ONLY Contador) was able to follow him in the mountains, knowing that he has an advantage in time trial. They did it again and again, just shadowing each other, sometimes stopping to a halt.

So his problem is not the lack of ability to lead, it was lack of ability to shake off Contador. I like how we want to make everything into some sort of mental problem, where the reality is probably much more prosaic and has to do with fitness, not some mental ability to "lead", whatever it means - Contador was just basically equal to Schleck in climbing ability, and no amount of psychobabble can all of a sudden make you climb faster than your body allows it.

Without Contador in the race and with improving ITT ability (Schleck doesn't need to win ITT's, just not lose huge chunks of time as he did in prologue), and with strong team support that hopefully includes his brother Frank, I believe Andy Schleck will be the favorite to win 2011, with perhaps only Basso as the question mark.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

I'm kind of getting more excited for the prospects of some serious riding at the TdF this year - especially if Menchov gets in it via Saxo Bank.

Nice potential shoot-out between the bros. Schleck, Basso, Menchov and some of the others mentioned here.

Maybe not so boreing afterall?


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

55x11 said:


> So who will be first then?
> .


Evans


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

albert owen said:


> Evans


Now that's an example of a wheel-follower! Even though to his defense, he tried to change this last year at Giro, a bit.


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## PlatyPius (Feb 1, 2009)

His shifters, and how to use them.


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

albert owen said:


> Evans



Who does BMC have to send to TdF to help Evans? They have a strong Classics team and a lot of promising young riders, but they severely lack in the kind of riders a GC contender needs. Andy has: F. Schleck, Cancellara, Fuglsang, O'Grady, Voigt...etc. who will all ride themselves inside out for Andy. Don't see a squad remotely close to that for BMC this year.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

While it's true Evans will have little to no support in the high mountains, it's nothing new to him. And he's been shown to do just fine with that if he didn't peak too early like last year. Andy Scleck on the other hand will crumble if he faced the same. More reason Evans is a true winner.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

OK I'll rise to the challenge ;-)
To compare Evans to Schleck is to compare a lion with a poodle. The idea that Schleck would have put himself "on the line" like Evans has, countless times (viz. last year's Mud Bath stage at the Giro) is laughable.
Schleck is essentially passive and reliant on others. He always waits for others to make their move, or brother Frank to hold his hand or FB to boss the peleton while he gets back on. Thus he is not a Leader, but a Follower. 
In contrast to LA and AC; leaders both with enormous personalities!

PS If I had wanted to say wheelsucker, I would have.


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## CoLiKe20 (Jan 30, 2006)

JohnHenry said:


> his shifters.


got a chuckle out of that


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

moabbiker said:


> While it's true Evans will have little to no support in the high mountains, it's nothing new to him. And he's been shown to do just fine with that if he didn't peak too early like last year. Andy Scleck on the other hand will crumble if he faced the same. More reason Evans is a true winner.


Evans will either bonk or crash in the TdF like he always has. To think that a true GC contender could ride the TdF without strong support in the mountains/protect the yellow jersey is laughable. You are also comparing A. Schleck who has finished 2nd twice as a 24 and 25 year old, vs. Cadel who's career best is 2nd in 2007 along with mediocre finishes of 26th and 29th the past two years. To compare a young rider who hasn't had as much experience with one who has been in the pro peleton much longer doesn't make sense. However from a career standpoint their two records couldn't be any more different. Andy Schleck's career placings in the TdF just CRUSH Cadel Evan's. Now that Schleck has more experience riding, watch out. At this point in their careers, 2011, there is no comparison who is the better GC rider.


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## FlandersFields (Jul 16, 2010)

I ride my bike to Paris when Jurgen VdB makes the podium.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

moabbiker said:


> While it's true Evans will have little to no support in the high mountains, it's nothing new to him. And he's been shown to do just fine with that if he didn't peak too early like last year. Andy Scleck on the other hand will crumble if he faced the same. More reason Evans is a true winner.


Schleck didn't crumble in the last two tours. Evans did.
Last year at Tourmalet (Stage 17) Evans finished 12 minutes behind Schleck, and he previously lost yellow jersey on stage 9 to none other than Schleck by finishing 8+ minutes behind him. If that's not *CRUMBLING* I don't know what is.

I think it's quite likely that Schleck puts 5+ minutes into Evans on one of the mountain stages.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

tranzformer said:


> Evans will either bonk or crash in the TdF like he always has. To think that a true GC contender could ride the TdF without strong support in the mountains/protect the yellow jersey is laughable. You are also comparing A. Schleck who has finished 2nd twice as a 24 and 25 year old, vs. Cadel who's career best is 2nd in 2007 along with mediocre finishes of 26th and 29th the past two years. To compare a young rider who hasn't had as much experience with one who has been in the pro peleton much longer doesn't make sense. However from a career standpoint their two records couldn't be any more different. Andy Schleck's career placings in the TdF just CRUSH Cadel Evan's. Now that Schleck has more experience riding, watch out. At this point in their careers, 2011, there is no comparison who is the better GC rider.


True to that. Somehow Evans never gets good support, even if the team is strong - remember Vuelta? He had a rider up front who didn't wait for Evans - at all, and his tire change was dismal. Evans had his best shot at winning 2008 Tour, which he lost due to lack of support in the mountains - Schleck brothers just played him like a *poodle*, while Sastre quietly rode off and won the Tour.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

You guys are selling Evans short. He has one of the best engines in the sport and has a lot of experience. He had a great season last year and his "mediocre" finish was due to a broken bone, which he carried for the rest of the tour.


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## anq (Jan 9, 2011)

The correct answer is the doping controls.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

tranzformer said:


> Evans will either bonk or crash in the TdF like he always has. To think that a true GC contender could ride the TdF without strong support in the mountains/protect the yellow jersey is laughable. You are also comparing A. Schleck who has finished 2nd twice as a 24 and 25 year old, vs. Cadel who's career best is 2nd in 2007 along with mediocre finishes of 26th and 29th the past two years. To compare a young rider who hasn't had as much experience with one who has been in the pro peleton much longer doesn't make sense. However from a career standpoint their two records couldn't be any more different. Andy Schleck's career placings in the TdF just CRUSH Cadel Evan's. Now that Schleck has more experience riding, watch out. At this point in their careers, 2011, there is no comparison who is the better GC rider.


Nice how you omitted Cadel's 2nd place on the second occasion in 2008. Let's see, 2007 Evans beaten by Contador, who had a fairly decent team with Levi doing a lot of the leg work. 2008 Evans beaten by Sastre, who had a very strong team, maybe one of the best ever. Meanwhile, those two years, Evans essentially teamless (Robbie McEwen probably the best support he had). I think Evans did damn well!

By your definition then, Andy Schleck hasn't proven anything more than Cadel has since neither has won. Let's not get into the possible "Pereiro" type win that Andy might take for 2010.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

55x11 said:


> Schleck didn't crumble in the last two tours. Evans did.
> Last year at Tourmalet (Stage 17) Evans finished 12 minutes behind Schleck, and he previously lost yellow jersey on stage 9 to none other than Schleck by finishing 8+ minutes behind him. If that's not *CRUMBLING* I don't know what is.
> 
> I think it's quite likely that Schleck puts 5+ minutes into Evans on one of the mountain stages.


Well if you believe Schleck, then you will not doubt that he would have won the tour last year by beating Contador if it were not for chaingate. 

Frank even stated that if he were there, he would never have allowed Andy to attack like that. 

Being #2 is not #1 and I call that crumbling when the difference wasn't due to physique or severe injury such as a broken bone that really a rider would withdraw a race from, but due to not having a teammate with you to tell you how to race.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

55x11 said:


> Now that's an example of a wheel-follower! Even though to his defense, he tried to change this last year at Giro, a bit.



More than a bit.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

moabbiker said:


> Being #2 is not #1 and I call that crumbling when the difference wasn't due to physique or severe injury such as a broken bone that really a rider would withdraw a race from, but due to not having a teammate with you to tell you how to race.



This. :thumbsup:


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I hate that wheelsucker Cadel Evans. He never animates races. He is so boring. He needs to grow a heart and start racing or get out of the way. 












Here too: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxdg41QEQyU


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

moabbiker said:


> Well if you believe Schleck, then you will not doubt that he would have won the tour last year by beating Contador if it were not for chaingate.
> 
> Frank even stated that if he were there, he would never have allowed Andy to attack like that.
> 
> Being #2 is not #1 and I call that crumbling when the difference wasn't due to physique or severe injury such as a broken bone that really a rider would withdraw a race from, but due to not having a teammate with you to tell you how to race.


Ok, we established that finishing #2 = "crumbling". And did Evans win 2010 Giro with his attacking style and no fractures? I forget...


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

If this was 2007-2009 Evans then sure. But there is no way that he will be able to have the same performance that he did in 2011 as when he was 4 years younger. There is a limiting factor on performance in all sports, it is called age. 










x-axis= age
y-axis= performance










Where was Cadel on this? Oh yea A. Schleck road away from him and the rest of the peleton at a cool age of 23 years old. Yep, he sure is washed up.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I wouldn't say that taking 2nd is "crumbling." 

Evans did crumble in the 2009 TDF.


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

moabbiker said:


> Nice how you omitted Cadel's 2nd place on the second occasion in 2008. Let's see, 2007 Evans beaten by Contador, who had a fairly decent team with Levi doing a lot of the leg work. 2008 Evans beaten by Sastre, who had a very strong team, maybe one of the best ever. Meanwhile, those two years, Evans essentially teamless (Robbie McEwen probably the best support he had). I think Evans did damn well!
> 
> By your definition then, Andy Schleck hasn't proven anything more than Cadel has since neither has won. Let's not get into the possible "Pereiro" type win that Andy might take for 2010.



If I don't remember correctly, in 2009 Cadel had terrible form and barely finished in the top 30. Sure he had an injury in 2010, but Tyler Hamilton didn't have problems riding a broken collarbone to finish in the top 5 in 2003. 

The reason I didn't include 2007 and 2008 was because I was focused on the last 2 years as it would give a better idea of their general performance and abilities. Trying to compare Lance in 2010 to how he was in 2004/2005 doesn't make much sense. Same thing trying to compare Evans in 2011 back to 2007/2008. 2009/2010 are closer data points to this year.

If you want to compare Cadel Evans in his prime vs. A. Schleck in his prime (yet to get there) then we might have an argument worth discussing. But Evans is on his way down as a legitimate GC contender.


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## Guest (Feb 4, 2011)

Dirty Sanchez...


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Evans looked pretty good in '09 and '10, save the substandard TDF performance in '09. He was a mechanical away from a GT victory in the '09 Vuelta, won the rainbow jersey, beat Andy Schleck in La Fleche Wallonne, and had a killer Giro performance with my favorite stage win from the year and the points and Azzurri d'Italia Classification. He's worn the leader's jersey in the past three GT's hes participated in. I can think of others that have done that, but I am trying to think of someone else who has actually worn the leaders jersey in three sequential GT's. Why do you think he is on his way down? Is it because of his age and the expectation that he should be on his way down? I don't really buy that. Also, he is only 33, which isn't as old as it used to be. 

What Tyler Hamilton or anyone else did while injured shouldn't be used against someone else while they are injured. I don't think that athletes should have the expectation of giving top notch performances with bad injuries and I cringe a little when people do. I would have thought nothing less of Tyler or his abilities if he had quit the Tour with that broken collarbone. Evans and Hamilton have some other differences in their record that shall remain unnamed but could apply here.


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

thechriswebb said:


> Evans looked pretty good in '09 and '10, save the substandard TDF performance in '09. He was a mechanical away from a GT victory in the '09 Vuelta, won the rainbow jersey, beat Andy Schleck in La Fleche Wallonne, and had a killer Giro performance with my favorite stage win from the year and the points and Azzurri d'Italia Classification. He's worn the leader's jersey in the past three GT's hes participated in. I can think of others that have done that, but I am trying to think of someone else who has actually worn the leaders jersey in three sequential GT's. Why do you think he is on his way down? Is it because of his age and the expectation that he should be on his way down? I don't really buy that. Also, he is only 33, which isn't as old as it used to be.


No it is because he will be 34 in 10 days. LA won his LAST TdF at age 33. Not his first. Any reason you think Cadel Evans should be able to defy the last 40 years of TdF first time winners and win his first TdF at age 34? The data just isn't there to make that a highly plausible scenario with the increased level of competition: A. Schleck, Sammy Sanchez, Van Den Broeck, Gesink, Hesjedal, F. Schleck...etc.

Merckx: 24
Luis Ocana: 28
Bernard Thevenet: 27
Van Impe: 29
Bernard Hinault: 23
Zoetemelk: 33
Laurent Fignon: 22
LeMond: 25
Roche: 27
DelGado: 28
Indurain: 27
Riis: 32
Ullrich: 23
Pantani: 28
Armstrong: 27
Pereiro: 28
Contador: 24
Sastre: 33


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

Also I'm not sure if anyone mentioned this, but Janez Brajkovic could be an interesting rider now that he doesn't have Contador or LA in front of him on the team. I haven't heard anything about his GT race plans, but if he is in the TdF he would be very very interesting to watch as he can climb and TT.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Oh, there's great competition. Cadel hasn't won a GT yet, but I think that his results have been so consistent that the data doesn't really separate him very much from someone who has. He finished 2 Tours within a minute of the win, which makes his physical ability comparable to someone who has won twice. There are plenty of people who feel that Basso is the greatest contender for the 2011 Tour but he is the same age as Evans. He has won two Giros, but has never finished as close to yellow as Cadel (I know he finished 2nd once, over 4 minutes away from Lance Armstrong). Evans certainly has as good of a chance as Basso. 

Evans is an unusual physical talent and I think that age is limiting athletes a little less than it used to.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Evans could win this year. It's not likely but well within the realms of possibility. This is probably his best chance in a number of years (since losing to Sastre?), and he should build his whole season around the TdF to give it one last shot. Unfortunately for the fans, his best shot is to revert to his familiar strategy - wheel-suck to the penultimate stage and make time up in the TT. He can't take time out of the pure climbers in the mountains, and he doesn't have the team to defend the yellow out on the open roads. It should be an interesting year for him.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

ukbloke said:


> Evans could win this year. It's not likely but well within the realms of possibility. This is probably his best chance in a number of years (since losing to Sastre?), and he should build his whole season around the TdF to give it one last shot. Unfortunately for the fans, his best shot is to revert to his familiar strategy - wheel-suck to the penultimate stage and make time up in the TT. He can't take time out of the pure climbers in the mountains, and he doesn't have the team to defend the yellow out on the open roads. It should be an interesting year for him.


I agree he *could* win. But the chance of him winning is dwindling down every year. He is slowing, and other riders get faster. He is becoming a bit like Levi, he struggles and loses time on one or several stages in three week Grant Tour. Giro last year was a perfect example. He loses time to Scarponi, Basso and Nibali and basically loses the chance to podium in Stage 19. It's very hard to see how the pure climbers like Basso and Schleck wouldn't be able to reproduce this and drop Evans at one of the mountain stages.


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## roadie92 (Jan 21, 2008)

Van den Broeck for the win!


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## SROC3 (Jul 20, 2009)

if Taylor Phinney is ridign the Tour this year I think he'll be one who might surprise everyone.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

SROC3 said:


> if Taylor Phinney is ridign the Tour this year I think he'll be one who might surprise everyone.


I could see him doing well the first week, but he's not much of a climber.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

I think we can safely say, not Ricco'!


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Contador?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-ban-to-be-overturned


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## zion rasta (Aug 15, 2004)

Basso, if he does not ride the Giro. Do not discount Ryder Hesjedal.... Menchov maybe.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

zion rasta said:


> Basso, if he does not ride the Giro. Do not discount Ryder Hesjedal.... Menchov maybe.


For once and all Menchov's team is NOT in the race so he won't be winning.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

I dunno, either Sastre or Menchov.......:thumbsup:


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

SROC3 said:


> if Taylor Phinney is ridign the Tour this year I think he'll be one who might surprise everyone.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

55x11 said:


>



I will agree with 55x11 here the only suprising Taylor will do is if he wins the prolog or a stage.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

32and3cross said:


> I will agree with 55x11 here the only suprising Taylor will do is if he wins the prolog or a stage.


I think doing well in the prologue and taking a sprint could potentially put him in yellow the first week, but that's about it. 

He might do alright, but I think BMC will be there mostly to support Evans.


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## OnForm (Feb 11, 2011)

TeJay


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Is Phiney even doing the Tour de France this year? Not so sure...


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

Dan Gerous said:


> Is Phiney even doing the Tour de France this year? Not so sure...


I doubt they've got that figured out yet. I know he had to miss the Tour of Qatar due to knee issues, so who knows how his health or form will play out this year. He'll do the TdF sooner or later.


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## Retro Grouch (Apr 30, 2002)

*My Top 3 Rivals to Andy*









*Jani Brajkovic*









*Denis Menchov*

....and my _Dark Horse_ pick:









*Alphonse*


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## Quixote (Aug 26, 2008)

Jens Voigt.


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## dot (Mar 4, 2004)

the most major competitor will be boredom. Every one else is already eliminated or will be in due course if the need arises. Don't count on Evans, he's god bad luck ingrained.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

RS has a few potential young GC riders, but I'm unsure how Johan is going to go about the GTs this year. With the two Robbies, will he switch his focus to stage wins? Hopefully they get an invite to the Giro and/or Vuelta.


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## tranzformer (Dec 27, 2007)

spade2you said:


> Hopefully they get an invite to the Giro and/or Vuelta.


Why wouldn't they? They are a ProTour team and aren't dependent upon being a wild card team.


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