# Oh, Levi



## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

He still thinks he has a shot at the TdF podium.

I guess he's not the only delusional one if someone at Omega Pharma-Quick Step is just as delusional.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

jorgy said:


> He still thinks he has a shot at the TdF podium.
> 
> I guess he's not the only delusional one if someone at Omega Pharma-Quick Step is just as delusional.


it's not that unreasonable, and he has done it before (unlike someone like Horner, for example), and has performed very well this year (three mini-stage race wins - all one week long, but still!). He has to believe he can do it, and realistically, he is one of 6-8 riders who could have a shot at a podium position (especially if Contador is banned).


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

If all the top tier players are out of the running for some reason, then put your money on Levi. He's one of the best of the second tier players for sure, and could easily make the podium. That's a pretty big if.


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## numchuks (Feb 8, 2008)

I recall plenty of posts last year saying the same thing about Cadel.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

No point in riding a GT if you don't see yourself as a GC contender, stage winner, or domestique. 

That being said, I don't see his chances being terribly high, but I wish him the best.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

numchuks said:


> I recall plenty of posts last year saying the same thing about Cadel.


Those posts would be stupid. Cadel was second twice before he finally won it. You can't say the same about Levi.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

mohair_chair said:


> Those posts would be stupid. Cadel was second twice before he finally won it. You can't say the same about Levi.


Third a few years back as well as a 2nd place in the Vuelta ain't too shabby.


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## Lazy Spinner (Aug 30, 2009)

Shhhhhhh! Don't tell Juan Jose Cobo that he doesn't have a shot at ever winning a grand tour. Wiggins is just too strong.

Levi's got as good a chance as anyone. This past TdF showed that crashes, minor injuries, poor team TT efforts, and failing to stick the dagger in the field allows a consistent rider with decent TT skills the chance to beat you.


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## sir duke (Mar 24, 2006)

The only way Levi gets on the podium is to give it a clean before Contador, Frandy, Evans or even Voeckler step up. I'd put Basso up there before Levi.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Levi could have made the podium this year if it weren't for the awful luck he the team had. He's got a long list of wins over many of the best racers in the Tour (including a few before and after this year's Tour). That said, with athletes and age, the down slope is usually far steeper than the up slope. Guys his and Horner's age can fall out of it without much notice.


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## bnoojin (Mar 24, 2002)

jorgy said:


> He still thinks he has a shot at the TdF podium.
> 
> I guess he's not the only delusional one if someone at Omega Pharma-Quick Step is just as delusional.


agreed. I had to chuckle at that one.

Levi on the Tour podium...is as probable as, well... as something very improbable...


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Lazy Spinner said:


> Shhhhhhh! Don't tell Juan Jose Cobo that he doesn't have a shot at ever winning a grand tour. Wiggins is just too strong.
> 
> Levi's got as good a chance as anyone. This past TdF showed that crashes, minor injuries, poor team TT efforts, and failing to stick the dagger in the field allows a consistent rider with decent TT skills the chance to beat you.


I think this is right on the mark. So much can happen in a GT that a guy thats a very very good TT man and good climber can certainly find himself there. Look at some of the 3rd places in the past. Say Conti doesnt start, Schleck is off form and throw in a freak crash and BOOM he's at least podium.
On the down side, I thought of Levi as lower first level/upper 2nd level climber right there with Cadel... until this Tour. I dont believe Cadel was ever quite as good a climber as he was this year.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

spade2you said:


> Third a few years back as well as a 2nd place in the Vuelta ain't too shabby.


Not bad. Being 37 is what is counting against him. This year he was totally flat in the Tour, but looked amazing in races that don't count. Great for smoking Tour of Utah and US Pro Cycling. There was a real field in those races, but the real contenders there were only racing for team commitments. Doubt Andy Schleck cared much about it. He needs to focus on peaking for the Tour if that is what he wants to win, not second tier short races.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

spookyload;3587038 Great for smoking Tour of Utah and US Pro Cycling. [/QUOTE said:


> at least give credit for tour de suisse as well.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Does he "_have a shot_" sure. Good TT & Good Climber- he has a shot at the podium. Heck it seems like 50% of the GC contenders crash out or have a bad stage and take themselves out. So it could happen.

Is it _likely_? No.


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## Weav (Jun 21, 2009)

My money's on a Lance comeback, part deux


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## quadrat (Aug 26, 2011)

Very improbable, indeed. Isn't he one of the last contemporaries of Greg LeMond, and isn't he at RadioShack, the team which will boast the Schleck brothers? Please don't count the win at the USAPCC, if this travesty of competitive sports had been won by anyone else than a veteran American rider, there would be no second edition.


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## Chainstay (Mar 13, 2004)

mohair_chair said:


> Those posts would be stupid. Cadel was second twice before he finally won it. You can't say the same about Levi.


What? A stupid post on this forum? Not possible


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## orange_julius (Jan 24, 2003)

jorgy said:


> He still thinks he has a shot at the TdF podium.
> 
> I guess he's not the only delusional one if someone at Omega Pharma-Quick Step is just as delusional.


As the top-seeded American GC hope, he is guaranteed to bring a lot of press attention. Doesn't matter if the hope is delusional or not, what matters is enough people believe it ;-). Win for Specialized, getting all the press. They can do an ad campaign even.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I didn't know he was talking to HTC highroad.


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## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

I'm not gonna slam his ambition. I don't think he had quite the team setup last year to make a sure judgement about him.


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## LauraM (Oct 27, 2010)

Levi is one of my favorite riders. And I would love to see him with the Tour. However, he rarely has the explosive power on climbs that you see in most Tour winners. When someone like Contador (when he's on form) jumps out of the saddle and starts flying up a climb, Levi can't follow. The only time I personally saw otherwise was in the ToC. But it didn't appear that the other top level riders were really competing to win the ToC, so I don't know that it really counts. No one can question his talent in a TT, but unless others have bad luck, I don't see that being enough for him to win the Tour.


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

Lazy Spinner said:


> Shhhhhhh! Don't tell Juan Jose Cobo that he doesn't have a shot at ever winning a grand tour. Wiggins is just too strong.
> 
> Levi's got as good a chance as anyone. This past TdF showed that crashes, minor injuries, poor team TT efforts, and failing to stick the dagger in the field allows a consistent rider with decent TT skills the chance to beat you.


A GT requires such a huge commitment to try and win it that there is substantial opportunity lost with regard to other races. NILF--nothing in life is free. Levi's focus on Le Tour comes at the cost of him not being able to race or win races for which he is actually better suited. You don't see a rider like Gilbert spinning his wheels focusing on races for which he is not suited.

That's the sentiment I was trying to convey. Yes, I realize he's been on the podium in the Tour before. But that was quite a few years ago.


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

jorgy said:


> A GT requires such a huge commitment to try and win it that there is substantial opportunity lost with regard to other races. NILF--nothing in life is free. Levi's focus on Le Tour comes at the cost of him not being able to race or win races for which he is actually better suited. You don't see a rider like Gilbert spinning his wheels focusing on races for which he is not suited.


What exactly are these races that LL is missing out on, in order to ride the Tour and contend for the podium? Tour of Austria? Tour of Poland? We did, in fact, see Gilbert spinning his wheels to win that early TdF stage and keep the yellow jersey for a while. Those were his TdF goals. Cavendish and Farrar have their GT goals, too. So what's wrong with a rider with elite GC skills making a stretch goal of getting to the TdF podium? He didn't say he would win it. Would his new team have signed him if he believed he only had top-30 GT skills at the Tour?


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## bnoojin (Mar 24, 2002)

I have to say I'm surprised by the Levi support, I'm not a fan but he's definitely one of the best American riders out there. 
But, one simply has to look at the number of *38 year old *Tour de France podium placings to see that history is strongly against his being a podium rider.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

bnoojin said:


> I have to say I'm surprised by the Levi support, I'm not a fan but he's definitely one of the best American riders out there.
> But, one simply has to look at the number of *38 year old *Tour de France podium placings to see that history is strongly against his being a podium rider.



This is true but age seems to be less limiting than it used to be; there was a 38 year old on the podium a couple of years ago and this year we had the oldest person to win the Tour in modern cycling history. Levi is as strong of a rider as he's ever been; him not winning GT's doesn't have anything to do with his age. By the end of a GT, the more explosive riders just manage to accumulate enough edge to beat him and pending some bad luck by Schlecks/Contador it will probably continue that way. I like to point out that in the '08 Vuelta he got to the finish in the same realtime as Contador while riding in support of him but Contador managed to gain enough in time bonuses by being explosive in the end to win the race. 

Levi also has a very bad habit of crashing out of the TDF while in very good position.


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## bnoojin (Mar 24, 2002)

thechriswebb said:


> This is true but age seems to be less limiting than it used to be; there was a 38 year old on the podium a couple of years ago and this year we had the oldest person to win the Tour in modern cycling history. Levi is as strong of a rider as he's ever been; him not winning GT's doesn't have anything to do with his age. By the end of a GT, the more explosive riders just manage to accumulate enough edge to beat him and pending some bad luck by Schlecks/Contador it will probably continue that way. I like to point out that in the '08 Vuelta he got to the finish in the same realtime as Contador while riding in support of him but Contador managed to gain enough in time bonuses by being explosive in the end to win the race.
> 
> Levi also has a very bad habit of crashing out of the TDF while in very good position.


I appreciate your points but I think age is just as limiting as it's ever been. the modern endurance athlete hasn't changed much but races less and targets specific goals more than say the 80's. the 38 yr old you referred to has a Tour pedigree that makes that podium appearance an exception. I'm pretty sure you're not comparing that rider to Levi in ability/potential are you?
Levi is an excellent rider well aware of his limitations which makes me surprised to hear him mention the Tour podium, I suppose its part self-promo and self-belief/delusion to make such a declaration. But increasing age to a Grand Tour rider is not forgiving and the Tour least of all. The Vuelta in '08 (the least competitive of all the Grand Tours) is not in the same league and that was 4 years ago (...from '12 Tour). 
Vegas odds (or more appro Belgian bookmaker's) would be extrememly high...


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## jpaschal01 (Jul 20, 2011)

This is just the first step in Specialized marketing Levi. Look at the fact, Specialized needs an American presence in the US races (Cali, Utah, Colorado) that they lost when Highroad folded. Saxo Bank and Astana aren't going to give them that. They work with Omega Pharma-Quick Step to return as bike sponsor and they help bring Levi to the team. To help sell, they promote him as a TDF GC hopeful. In reality, we all know he will line up with a goal of finishing Top 10, whick is a great goal. If he has a great tour, it could be higher. But everything would have to be perfect for him and near disasterous for some others for him to finish on the podium. But then again, the tour was disasterous for all of Radio Shack this year...


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

LL has countered the claims that he needs to retire soon because of age with (a) he started racing professionally (relatively) late and (b) he purposely limits his season to targeted races and doesn't ride classics. Dunno if this will buy him three more years but it is a different career profile than most other riders.


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