# Okay here it is... TOUR PREDICTIONS!!



## cannondale_boy (May 6, 2004)

1) Jan Ullrich GC
2) Lance Armstrong.... 35 secs..
3) Santiago Botero.... 1min 25secs..
4) Alexandre Vinokourov 1min 45secs..
5) Floyd Landis... 2min 10secs..


Dont make any money bets but I think this will shore up the top 5...

Whats yours?


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## peterpen (May 5, 2004)

1. Basso
2. Leipheimer
3. Vinokourov
4. Ullrich
5. Armstrong

This is based as much in wishful thinking as in reality, but who knows?


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## proy (Sep 7, 2004)

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Daylight


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## Silver222 (Aug 5, 2004)

1. Armstrong
2. Leipheimer
3. Basso
4. Ullrich
5. Landis


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## nwilkes (Jun 21, 2004)

1. LA - he won 6 in a row
2. Basso - improved TT, but hasn't shown consistent recovery in a long race, if he does everyone will be b*tching about him in 6 years too, also more confident this year & strong suport rivaling Disco
3. Vino - too tough not to podium despite his trainwreck team
4. Leipheimer - Ullrich has the talent, but Leipheimer is a man possessed
5. Ullrich
6-10. Totschnig/Karpets/Acevedo/Botero - all have had exceptionally strong TDFs, but have either peaked too early or will be helping out a teammate or two.

Stage winners (if they ride at all): Cancellara, Flecha, Hincapie, Mayo, Contador (like him even with the hand injury), Ullrich, Vino

Green Jersey: Boonen
KOM: Someone from Euskatel

I miss Eki.

Thanks.


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## Henry V (May 26, 2005)

My prediction: Disco sends Pavel the Gavel on an early stage breakaway. The other teams let him go, snickering at the obvious foolishness of burning out an important strength guy who will be critical on the flats and rolling hills. The Gavel gets five minutes on the field. Shocking the world (and mostly T-Mobile), Lance turns super domestique and literally tows the Gavel up the slopes and launches him to a series of dramatic mountain stage wins. Ullrich tries desperately to catch up in the time trials where Lance can't help, but it's not enough. Once again, through amazing trickery, deception and head games, Team Disco pulls off a TdF win and Lance heads off into retirement with everyone fawning over his unselfish dedication to the team and his boys. Of course, this is all designed to make Lance feel good about himself, so he actually is continuing his self absorbed ways (but only BG and UCH will see the "gesture" for what it is  ). 

Final top five: 

1. Padrnos
2. Ullrich--25 seconds
3. Basso
4. Mayo
5. Landis


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Has Padrnos shown any real climbing or TT ability? Your scenario is a lot more realistic (for what that is worth) with George Hincapie.


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## Henry V (May 26, 2005)

mohair_chair said:


> Has Padrnos shown any real climbing or TT ability? Your scenario is a lot more realistic (for what that is worth) with George Hincapie.


Yes, Georgie would have been more realistic, but then you might have taken me seriously  . 

FWIW, I was rather surprised that Pavel was the one guy who caught up to Paolo in the mountains and brought him some water, at least early in the climbs. He couldn't hang for long and it must have hurt like hell because he doesn't really do that kind of work.


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

Basso - He still can't time trial with Armstrong and Ullrich plus his form is spread over three months.

Botero - Can always be counted out to blow on one of the mountain stages. He'll look good at the start, crash and burn, then redeem himself with a stage victory.

Heras - We'll have to keep checking the results to make sure he's still in the race. Cantador beats him in the G.C.

Landis - Does pretty well but is dropped from the final group on one of the mountain stages.

Mayo - Concentrates on stage wins and ends up with a fairly high finish from the time gains.

Vino - Can't match the time trial pace of LA or Ullrich. Holds tough in the mountains.

Leipheimer - Does better than Landis but is still a little behind Ullrich and Armstrong in both the TTs and the mountains.

Kloden - Rides support for Vino and Ullrich. Doesn't have it at the end of mountain stages. Maybe doesn't have it at all this year.

Rogers - Top tens but falls into the first chase group on a couple of mountain stages at the end.

McGee - Places 14 or 15. Doesn't handle the big mountains well.

Simoni - Wins a stage. 

Beloki - Finishes in Paris and looks good at the end.

Horner - Starts out well and degrades during the three weeks. Probably gets a stage victory.

Garate - Too tired from the Giro.

Piepoli - Wins the KOM.

Popovych - Anxious to prove he can take over for Armstrong. Top ten.

Savoldelli - Content to play lieutenant and then drift into the autobus when his job is done.

Menchov - Goes nowhere and people start questioning the promise he showed a couple of years ago.

Garzelli/Cioni/Pellizotti - Garzelli and Cioni go nowhere after doing the Giro. Pellizotti does the best of the three and places a solid top ten.

Evans - Blows in the mountains.

Ullrich and Armstrong - Despite how they both looked in their final races, last week medical preparation leaves them the class of the field. Armstrong is no longer explosive in the mountains and ends up playing Ullrich's game. Armstrong wins the first stage but as the race goes on starts the preemptive excuses as he falls behind.

1) Ullrich
2) Armstrong (If he doesn't drop out)
3) Vino
4) Leipheimer
5) Basso
6) Popovych
7) Rogers
8) Landis
9) Pellizotti
10) Mayo


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

*Only 1 bold prediction.*

Jan doesn't make the podium again. Vino will be the Kloden of last year. My guess for the podium?
1-LA
2-Basso
3-Levi/Landis/Vino
Ok, so it was more than 1 prediction.....


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*You got me.*



nwilkes said:


> I miss Eki.
> 
> Thanks.


I almost shed a tear when you said you missed Eki. I miss him too. 

But I totally agree with your predictions.

Levi has been so strong this year that he has to be considered. LA and Levi were mighty chummy in TDG and DL so watch them together in the mountains and Levi will benefit from that synergy. 

Landis predicted by others or Botero by yourself...I am not so sure about Phonak because they are probably suffering from my "spitball theory". Who is it going to be because Botero is suspect on whether he would support Landis and vice versa. Botero is going to be a wildcard there.

Basso...whoa...if he can keep his cookies down he will be strong because CSC is going to be strong ITT and TTT, and he can climb. Nuff said there.

Vino or Ulrich? maybe they both will hit top 5 trying to outdo the other. (This has potential spectating to see who will end up as TM leader...I wonder how long or how strong T-Mobile will remain dedicated to their primary man. Vino may set out on his own agenda.

Other dark horses. Eusketel and Gonzalez, Columbia-Selle Italia-?

KOM...Is Rujano or Parra in this race?

Tell em you heard it right here.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*good thoughts.*



Utah CragHopper said:


> Basso - He still can't time trial with Armstrong and Ullrich plus his form is spread over three months.
> 
> Botero - Can always be counted out to blow on one of the mountain stages. He'll look good at the start, crash and burn, then redeem himself with a stage victory.
> 
> ...


I like your top five(not necessarily the order..lol) and the Savoldelli comment.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*Why should we*

leave Hincappie out of the top ten. If Lance does well somebody on his team will be there besides Popo at the end


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## ClimbElYunque (Jun 21, 2005)

*Landis*

I don't think Landis will be in the top 10. I think he could
lose lots of minutes in in each the mountain finish stages. I
don't think he can answer a serious attack. His
TT a above average at best but great to make a lot of difference
against the top TT riders. 
I think he will lose around 25-30 minutes from the winner.
He will start as the leader of phonak but Botero
will take it over and he becomes a domestique...


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## nwilkes (Jun 21, 2004)

dagger said:


> leave Hincappie out of the top ten. If Lance does well somebody on his team will be there besides Popo at the end


The following came to me whilst deep in a Himalayan trance:

No top ten, but I call a stage win for GH at most. 

KOM goes to Magnus.

Oh, and I predict Ullrich leads part of the race, then rides off the road or endos the MJ away. Oddly enough my Nostradamus-like presience tells me that a German fan wielding a ginormous Uber-Deutschland flag gets the flagpole caught in both Ullrich and Klodens front wheels simultaneously. Both endo and lose massive time. In a perfectly natural reaction the entire German populace blames Jens Voight for not using the Bush pre-emptory strike doctrine against the flag bearer.

Vino breaks away, wins a stage late in teh race and forces his way onto the podium. 

Heras retires from the TDF this year. This just isn't his race, but he goes on to succeed in the Giro.

Whichever GC contender wins the prologue will also take the MJ.
//forgive me


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## magnolialover (Jun 2, 2004)

*Because...*



dagger said:


> leave Hincappie out of the top ten. If Lance does well somebody on his team will be there besides Popo at the end


Hincapie can't long time trial, and can't climb at full out sustained efforts for too long. He'll never make the top 10 of the Tour de France. He's there for the flat parts between mountains on the long mountain days, and he's there to protect Armstrong on the flat stages and make sure he doesn't get gapped. He's not going to get a stage win. The only person on Disco who will get a stage win will be Armstrong. They don't ride for stage wins, they ride to win the race, which is why Armstrong has won the past 6 years in a row.

All of you who think Vino is going to make the podium.. HAHAHAHAHA!!! Ain't going to happen. If he does, I'll fess up as being wrong. Vino is good for attacking, and maybe he'll take a stage, if he's freed up to do so by his boss. He's not good in grand tours day after day. Certain days, yes. Some other days, no.

Botero will blow up somewhere, probably win a TT stage, blow up again, and then win a mountain stage. He's better this year, but still very unpredictable. I'd love to see Botero be top 5, as he's the man, but I don't think he has it in him.

Landis?? Harharharharharhar. Leipheimer will wipe him off the map I hope. I say that just because he likes ZZ Top (Landis, not Leipheimer), and they are probably the worst band ever, and he looks like a menonite version of Kid Rock, which is disturbing and funny all at the same time.

Heras? Can't TT his way out of a paper bag. I could probably beat that little elf in a TT and I suck at them.

Tyler? Woops, doper. Never mind.

Mayo has a good shot at doing something, he's been pretty quiet so far this year. Might be saving it up this year instead of blowing his wad in the early season.

Ullrich will have a melt down, quit bike racing, and join the German circus if he doesn't win this year.


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## jaldridge (Feb 27, 2005)

1 ... Ullrich
2 ... Armstrong
3 ... Cunego


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

*Are you joking?*



jaldridge said:


> 1 ... Ullrich
> 2 ... Armstrong
> 3 ... Cunego


Cunego is out with mononucleosis. Come to think of it Ullrich also looked like he had mononucleosis on the mountains during TDS.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Utah CragHopper said:


> Basso - He still can't time trial with Armstrong and Ullrich plus his form is spread over three months.
> 
> Botero - Can always be counted out to blow on one of the mountain stages. He'll look good at the start, crash and burn, then redeem himself with a stage victory.
> 
> ...



This seems closest to reality at this point except for Ullrich. Ullrich looked very bad on the TDS mountains and once again he will lack the explosive power as diesels over the mountains at TDF. Armstrong will not drop out unless he becomes very ill or injured. Basso will surprise us but he will not win this year. He will not do the Giro next year and he will win the next three TDF.


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## nwilkes (Jun 21, 2004)

magnolialover said:


> Landis?? Harharharharharhar. Leipheimer will wipe him off the map I hope. I say that just because he likes ZZ Top (Landis, not Leipheimer), and they are probably the worst band ever, and he looks like a menonite version of Kid Rock, which is disturbing and funny all at the same time.
> 
> Mayo has a good shot at doing something, he's been pretty quiet so far this year. Might be saving it up this year instead of blowing his wad in the early season.


I proclaim this TDF too flat for Mayo to do anything but battle for a stage win, then crumple and go back to being a null factor. Last year was his year and he blew it. 

Nice job referencing the mennonites, kid rock and ZZ Top in one sentence. I don't get why Heras even races the TDF anymore.


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## Kvonnah (Sep 26, 2002)

*Very well thought out and objective analysis until...*



Utah CragHopper said:


> Basso - He still can't time trial with Armstrong and Ullrich plus his form is spread over three months.
> 
> Botero - Can always be counted out to blow on one of the mountain stages. He'll look good at the start, crash and burn, then redeem himself with a stage victory.
> 
> ...


The Lance hate clouds your reason. I would like to see Jan beat LA at least once but it ain't gonna happen. Lance will be "da man" one final time. Even if he has lost some explosiveness Ullrich STILL wont be able to follow his wheel.

Just 1 week to go!!


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

Never said I wasn't biased.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

*Heras can't TT?*



magnolialover said:


> Heras? Can't TT his way out of a paper bag. I could probably beat that little elf in a TT and I suck at them.
> 
> Landis?? Harharharharharhar. Leipheimer will wipe him off the map I hope. I say that just because he likes ZZ Top (Landis, not Leipheimer), and they are probably the worst band ever, and he looks like a menonite version of Kid Rock, which is disturbing and funny all at the same time.


Dude go back and check some of those vualta TTs Heras makes the top ten. He can't win em but when he can hang tough when he has the form - NOW the question will be does he have the form.

ZZ top - Yes I concour that everything from the "Sharp Dressed Man" era and after needs to be burned but Beer Drinkers and Hell Raisers still rocks and Rev Billy still gets some of the best tones out of his guitar. This still fact should keep Landis up in the GC


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

Utah CragHopper said:


> Basso - He still can't time trial with Armstrong and Ullrich plus his form is spread over three months.
> 
> Botero - Can always be counted out to blow on one of the mountain stages. He'll look good at the start, crash and burn, then redeem himself with a stage victory.
> 
> ...


I usually don't agree with any of your posts, but except for a reversal of the top two places, I think you did a great of of analyzing the contenders and their chances. I think Vino is suseptable to injury or a crash in a three-week tour, but not before he's given free reign to go for himself once Telecom's ever faithful team management sees Jan lose time on the first mountain stage. 
I've heard a lot of press hyping up the motivation all contenders have because this is their last and final chance to make their mark as the hero who slew the dragon. I think it's more of a case of woodbee hero polishing their armor so they look good once the dragon safely retires on his own.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

I think it's remarkable that so many would pick anyone-other-than-Lance for the win, but at the same time there's no clear consensus as to even who his main challenger is!

I agree with the previous poster who thinks Vino's attacking style is not good for the Tour. But it paid off two years ago, so who knows? He seems in decent shape and didn't waste too much of his form on classics like in the past, so perhaps this could be his year.

People who think Hincapie can make top 10 are on crack. Same goes for Horner. I think his TdS breakaway was EXTREMELY impressive, but let's face it - he had two good days in what is essentialy a low-key Tour tune-up... TdF is going to be a whole different league.
My prediction about Horner is that he will try a few breakaways, but will fail to win a single stage...

Landis will not make top 10 - he was struggling on the mountains during Dauphine and will follow in the path of previous LA domestiques. Leipheimer will make top 10, but not top 5.
His team is strong in TT, but may lack support in the mountains.

Mayo and Heras will not be a factor in GC but may come away with a mountain stage win.
Simoni will not get any results and will drop out during second week. Beloki is done.

Basso will find it difficult to spread his form over three weeks but will reinforce his image as the favorite for the next year.

Savoldelli and Popovych will serve as domestiques to Lance and will not place in top 10.

Ullrich will prove that despite many people writing him off after last year that he is still one of the biggest threats to Lance.

Botero will have a decent tour, and if he concentrates on GC he could make the podium. So is Aitor Gonzales - another semi-dark horse.

Kloden will not be much of a factor.

Here's my top 5:

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Jan Ulrich
3. Ivan Basso
4. Vinokourov
5. Botero

I could see spots 2 through 5 to be rearranged in almost any order and still make a reasonable bet, but I believe Lance has the form and the team to defend his #7.


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## saviour machine (Nov 30, 2004)

I told A guy who works at the LBS after lance won #2 that he would win 7 in a row . He asked what I was smoking.It looks like I was smoking something very good.  Lance will win.


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## 97 Teran (Feb 17, 2004)

*True to a degree, but...*



32and3cross said:


> Dude go back and check some of those vualta TTs Heras makes the top ten. He can't win em but when he can hang tough when he has the form - NOW the question will be does he have the form.


the Vuelta hasn't included Armstrong and Ullrich (and Botero & Rogers, amongst others) for many many years. It's a different league of time triallists at the TdF. Heras will lose MAJOR amounts of time to the top 5-6 riders in each time trial. He'll be fortunate to finish 15th (in each TT, that is.)


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## STinGa (Mar 15, 2003)

*My 2 cents worth, or maybe 15 cents...*

1. Lance...This guy will only lose due to injury. He got hurt a few years ago with dehydration and I don't think he will make another mistake of not being prepared or a lapse in concentration.
2. Leipheimer...he is ready to prove his worth.
3. Vino...has the ability and determination to place. If T-Mobile won't back him, his next team will probably help him along, padding their points for next year. This three leader, too few domestiques issue will allow Leipheimer to beat Vino and Jan.
4. Mayo
5. Jan
6 - 11 should have Kloden, Botero, Basso, Julich, Totschnig, and Popyvich in no certain order.

I am looking to see Horner and Landis crack the top 15, Axel M should be able to better his placing from last year and get into the top 20, and I would not be too surprised to see Hincapie have a nice placing. Definitely inside the top 25, maybe into the top 20.


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

Jesse D Smith said:


> except for a reversal of the top two places...


I put LA and Ullrich last because I cannot guess what will happen with them. 

Armstrong hasn't looked good the entire year. He hasn't looked bad either. He has not been explosive in the mountains the last two years, with the exception of Luz Ardiden 2003 and that may have been fueled by adrenaline after his fall. Indurain has commented on it. Armstrong himself mentioned it after losing a TT. That may be wrong because in 2004 the competition imploded and he didn't need to attack, but I think it is the real reason he is retiring; he sees signs of decline and his personality type cannot stand losing.

Ullrich has always come to the Tour in great shape, and this year he has not had to lose weight. Restricting calories so you can lose six kilos in a month, during which you are supposed to be gaining fitness is not a good plan. Ullrich has looked fairly lean the entire year. I don't agree with those that have written him off. The caveat is that he was suffering in the TdS, even though his results were okay. I think he was doing what he said he would do in Switzerland last year: Use the race for training and mash a big gear to increase the stress. I expect him to be in excellent form during the Tour, and an in form Ullrich beats an in form Vino. There won't be a question of who deserves to be the leader.

Armstrong will not easily beat Ullrich. It will be hard. I hope Ullrich will win but it will be hard for him too.


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## leadag (Jan 4, 2005)

what's this nonsense about armstrong lacking explosiveness in the mountains?

last year he rode the entire tour off his wheel several times, sprinted to two mountain stage wins and blasted past basso going up alpe d'huez enroute to thumping the field..

when the wheels start turning nobody else can keep pace and attacking doesn't make any sense..


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

*true that...*



leadag said:


> what's this nonsense about armstrong lacking explosiveness in the mountains?
> 
> last year he rode the entire tour off his wheel several times, sprinted to two mountain stage wins and blasted past basso going up alpe d'huez enroute to thumping the field..
> 
> when the wheels start turning nobody else can keep pace and attacking doesn't make any sense..


let's see what happens this year.


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## Sintesi (Nov 13, 2001)

proy said:


> 1. Lance Armstrong
> 2. Daylight


 !!


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## Sintesi (Nov 13, 2001)

Henry V said:


> . The Gavel gets five minutes on the field.



He'll need an hour and "5 minutes" but sure, I'm with you. Excuse me, I have to drive my cat to a karate match.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*I appreciate that*



Utah CragHopper said:


> Never said I wasn't biased.


because most of the "biased" won't admit their biasness.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

* Funny.*

 Armchair Director Sportif... that's great!


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## R.Rice (Aug 23, 2004)

*My predictions....*

1)LA
2)Some other guy 7+ minutes back.


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## bsdc (Feb 15, 2002)

1) Armstrong
2) Basso
3) Vino


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## leadag (Jan 4, 2005)

I'll second that:

1) Armstrong
2) Basso
3) Vino / Leipheimer (sp??)


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## igorn (Jun 16, 2002)

*My predictions*

1. Armstrong
2. Ulrich
3. Leipheimer

I'm not Lance fan but the man is strong and in class of his own. If anything happend to Armstrong, Ulrich will take the number 1. Vino has some explosivness and attacking abilities, but he is not strong as Ulrich is, and as a professional he WILL do his job as a powerfull domestique. Klöden will do the same. In all previous years, T-Mobile were been built as a mixed team, but this year they made a team with GC only in mind.


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## lallo (Feb 20, 2005)

1) Basso
2) Savoldelli
3) Menchov
4) Armstrong
5) Heras


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## bsdc (Feb 15, 2002)

Liepheimer? A lot of people have put Levi on the podium. I like Levi well enough, but does he really have a chance?


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## OrangeCat (Apr 7, 2005)

cannondale_boy said:


> Dont make any money bets but I think this will shore up the top 5...
> 
> Whats yours?


Levi Interview.. 
1. Levi Leipheimer!!! I am pumped after reading the interview... He says the water is the big difference!


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*basso's improved TT*

is still about 1.5 mph plus slower than Jan and LA.
Heras, top ten at bestt have the TT strength to crack top 5 and this isn't a climbers tour.
I'm calling Valverde as a darkhorse to do well.
Calling more Americans in top 10 than French. maybe more than any other nation.
Sav. he's there to work folks, why would you pick him, Popo or Azevedo have better shots at high GC's.
I think Vino takes over at T-Mob as I think he's the only one with the stones. but TT will hurt him.
I think LA will retire on top.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*What took you so long?*



atpjunkie said:


> is still about 1.5 mph plus slower than Jan and LA.
> Heras, top ten at bestt have the TT strength to crack top 5 and this isn't a climbers tour.
> I'm calling Valverde as a darkhorse to do well.
> Calling more Americans in top 10 than French. maybe more than any other nation.
> ...


To weigh in on this topic.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*Predictions*



dagger said:


> To weigh in on this topic.


1)The Hulk will make an appearance at the TDF. You might not see him, but he will be there........

2)Jan will have an excuse for not winning

3)The winner? Hey, thats tough, here in the forum you have to be careful because saying LANCE WILL WIN is not a tough sell. Its like he won the last 6 IN A ROW and this year could be the "real deal" because Mr I could not get it done since 97 (Jan).........Hey whio knows? BUT I will go on record with a guess of LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE LANCE


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## moving up (Feb 18, 2003)

magnolialover said:


> Ullrich will have a melt down, quit bike racing, and join the German circus if he doesn't win this year.


He's already there - it's a three ring circus called T-Mobile with three (maybe 2 and a half) leaders competing to attract attention. With two stages in Germany this year, it will be interesting to see if they can pull together as a team or a repeat of LeMond challenging his leader.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

*I think it will be a free for all......*

with Lance not even finishing.

Calm down.............

Here is my logic.....Lance has had 6 straight tours where he has had very little bad luck and none of it at a critical juncture of the race. No real accidents (One fall, but relativly minor, and everyone waited for him), no mechanicals on the last climb of a mountain stage or in a TT where big time can be lost. Now some of that is preperation and great team tactics, but, when you look at most of the other 5 time winners, they have all ( with the exception I think of Indurain) had something "steal" a win from them. Merckx punched in the stomach, Hinault with the bloddy face, etc. I just think his "luck" will run out. Winning the tour is a combination of great preperation and team tactics, great genetics, and luck. I don't think Lance will finish this year. Just a feeling.

If he doesn't (or if he just doesn't have it) there are several pretenders to the crown. Somone else did a good run down of them. If Lance goes out early, watch out for the usual suspects, plus Popovich. Salvadelli won't do it after the Gire, but Popo might sneak in for a podium.

Levi will never win.......he'll excite us by staying close, but he will lose a couple of minutes late in the mountains and then fight for a podium.

Basso will be hard to win after the Giro, but his TTing could win it for him if he was able to recover.

I wouldn't bet against Jan.

Len


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## nwilkes (Jun 21, 2004)

Len J said:


> with Lance not even finishing.
> 
> Calm down.............
> 
> ...


I would disagree with teh LA hasn't had bad luck. He's fallen and bonked more than a couple times I think. Disco/Postal just seem smarter and more prepared than anyone else so the entire race doesn't go to sh*t when someone flats in the TTT (Phonak). LA is rarely put into dicey situations and when he is there is a corps of strongmen there to help him. In addition Jan and LA are just really tough, Jan gets sick and essentially wastes the first half of last years TDF, but still places really high. Meanwhile that "man of iron" Iban Mayo drops out completely.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*was delightfully off-line*

was I missed or is this an offhanded slag?

I'm no homer and I'm not pulling for him but I think the whole 'retiring thing' is just to provide motivation. he's gonna want to go out on top and giving himself an ultimatum provides him with the fuel to train. Personally I'd rather he done the Tour and finished with the Vuelta (hopefully pursuing a double) after all the Vuelta is where his comeback started and it would bring it full circle. but alas it's not the media event that the TdF is. If he was Samurai he'd finish there.


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## bsdc (Feb 15, 2002)

Some people are lucky and some aren't. Lance is lucky ... or is it prepared ... or is it that he's so dominant that he doesn't have to push the limit. Either way, he's the favorite and it's going to take very bad luck to unseat him. The other contenders have to deal with poorer preparation, not as good a team and the bad luck that comes with pushing to the limit to get an edge.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Good Luck*

sometimes is increased with good preparation and planning. knowing what situations to avoid can help a heap but he's also had his share of spills.
2003 Dauphine and TdF crashes (needed serious therapy and constant work)
2000 Bonk on the Mountain
2003 Musette incident
so he hasn't had a completely accident free Tour career.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

*True enough but.....*



atpjunkie said:


> sometimes is increased with good preparation and planning. knowing what situations to avoid can help a heap but he's also had his share of spills.
> 2003 Dauphine and TdF crashes (needed serious therapy and constant work)
> 2000 Bonk on the Mountain
> 2003 Musette incident
> so he hasn't had a completely accident free Tour career.


he hasn't had the knockout incedent that others have had. (merckx, Hamilton, Hinault etc).

I just think it's time.

Len


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## cannondale_boy (May 6, 2004)

*2003 Tdf*

Of all his victories I really enjoyed the '03 the best, probably not alone here. If Lance does win, which he probably will, I hope it to come down to the final TT. That would be quite the showdown... and running against more than just Ullrich too. I agree with Sherwin and Liggett that this will be Lances hardest tour. 

Psychologically, people will say this is the last time I can attack armstrong and now is the time.... (I'm looking at you Ullrich and your attack on Luz Ardiden!!) 

I really dont believe anyone else can beat Armstrong besides Jan, so I'm hoping he can say at least once that he got it right and beat the Texan.. Maybe force armstrong out of retirement and back on the juice to race in '06!!) 

That last line was in there for my close friends in the forum. Keep it friendly.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

cannondale_boy said:


> Of all his victories I really enjoyed the '03 the best, probably not alone here. If Lance does win, which he probably will, I hope it to come down to the final TT. That would be quite the showdown... and running against more than just Ullrich too. I agree with Sherwin and Liggett that this will be Lances hardest tour.
> 
> Psychologically, people will say this is the last time I can attack armstrong and now is the time.... (I'm looking at you Ullrich and your attack on Luz Ardiden!!)
> 
> ...


I get a little irritated when people suggest (mostly in other threads) that they want a "weaker" Armstrong to make for a closer, more exciting race. This smacks a bit of a handicap, or "everyone is a winner"-"let's not keep the score" type approach. The beauty of the sport is that the strongest man wins. And while 2003 was the nailbiter, and an amazing spectacle with crashes and almost "made for TV" tour, I don't think that next year when Armstrong retires and supposedly the playing field will be more level (and more mediocre), that the Tour will be much more exciting. Neither do I think that Giro or Vuelta are much more exciting than the Tour just because they are typically closer to each other. 

This argument is sort of reminiscent of Chicago Bulls in late 1990ies, and sheer dominance of Michael Jodan - the game was so much fun to watch!!! He kinda spoiled it for me and now I don't follow basketball as closely. I think having a super-star like Jordan who could come out and win the game when Bulls are 10 points behind with 3 minutes to go was absolutely amazing to watch. And I am sure college basketball leagues were much more closely matched, but does close score all you really need for an exciting game?

I am in absolute awe of professionalism of team Discovery/USPostal and Lance personally, and of course Johann. Say whatever you want, Lance/Disco haters, but Lance/Bruneel sure know how to win the Tour and can do/have done it in a number of different ways. They know how to structure a winning team, how to train race-specifically for those three weeks in July. To me, watching their performance is sort of like watching ElGuerrouj run a mile - you know he is a favorite and it probably won't even be close, but the way he "floats" when everyone begins to struggle is an amazing thing to see.

I hope that nobody gets sick and nobody gets injured in the Tour, and that everyone performs up to their potential. If it means the race is not going to be close - fine by me. I want to see a real race - not a race handicapped by injuries, crashes and illnesses, but a simple race against the clock, may the strongest man win, even if it means winning by 10 minute margin. Whatever it is, bring it on!


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## boneman (Nov 26, 2001)

*Lance, again.......maybe*

I had the good fortune to be in Europe for all 6 of Lance's victories and been on the Champs d'Elysées to watch the final stage. Much as I'd like to see someone else win this year as I found the 2003 and 2004 versions to be incredibly boring, I believe that Armstrong's motivation, mental strength and preparation continue to be a step above the rest of the peleton. That being said, he's at the age where all the aforementioned stuff may not help.

1) Armstrong- record speaks for itself and a very strong and totally dedicated team.

2) Basso- he could surprise but I don't think it will be this year as he's not yet consistent enough, time trialing has improved but is it enough? Strong and motivated team with Riis who's done a superb job since becoming a DS.

3) Ullrich- He could have won in 1996, then did so in 1997. If he had half of LA's focus and determination he'd have won more at a cost to Armstrong. This guy is just frustrating. I met him at the World's in Lisbon and he's a really nice person with the public. Maybe too nice a person. Godefroot is a proven DS although the Rudy Pevange matter is a distraction. Team is a strong one. I don't buy the too many leaders rap, not with Godefroot running the show.

Leipheimer- Good enough to place highly but ultimately not a winner in the high climbs and not a winner in the TT's. Plus, the team is not the strongest in mountain support.

Landis- Same issue as Levi. Nicer team but again, no podium.

Rogers- With no Tricky Dick to shephard around, this could be interesting. World Champion TT'r two years on the trot and a decent climber. We shall see. My dark horse although what horse dyes their hair like he does?

Botero- Maybe a stage but he's never put it together on a consistent basis. My Halloween guy, trick or treat.

Heras- Superb climber who wasted his best years riding for, versus against, Armstrong. TT ability is slightly ahead of mine which means no podium. Nice team and could take a stage in the mountains. Will race for GC, hence no polka dot jersey.

Kloden- Paris-Nice 2000, 2nd TDF 2004. Haley's comet is almost more frequent in appearances.

Ille Balaers- Any team that is sponsored by the Balaeric Islands has got my vote. A beautiful part of the World. Mancebo and Valverde could each podium and I would say the latter has a better shot. Strong rider with a strong mindset. The other guy on this team I love is Vladimir Karpets. The name, the tufted beard, the hair and his strength amaze me. I'm surprised he can climb like he does. Only a matter of time before he breaks through.

Pellizotti- I've been waiting for some results the past few years for the next big thing out of Italy, pre-Cunego, and will still be waiting.

Mayo and Zubeldia- After the great results by these two in 2003, a complete blow-out in 2004. Full facial considering all the pre-Tour hype. Have they gone backwards or the rest of the teams gone forward? Zubeldia's the better all arounder and you never see much of this Basque team until the Tour. Hard one to read but no podium for Mayo, maybe for Zubeldia. Team is comprised of billy goats, reminding me of the great mid-90's Kelme squad.

Green Jersey- The Flemish speaking fast man from Down Under- McEwen beats out Boonen with the Cookie Monster in third.

Mountains- Botero (part of Phonak's strategy to send him up the road), followed by Mayo and then either Garate or Basso.

le Grand Boucle, I'll not be in Paris this summer and I'm missing it already. The food, the wine, the museums, the French women, never mind the spectacle.

Just read Utah CragHopper's fine analysis before posting this. Nice work.


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## howardpowered (Jun 27, 2004)

*Goodies for Good Guesses?*

1) Armstrong
2) Basso
3) Rogers

I think the moderators should give an RBR kit to anyone who picks the top three in exact order. Whatcha think?


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

*I agree...*



MaRider said:


> I get a little irritated when people suggest (mostly in other threads) that they want a "weaker" Armstrong to make for a closer, more exciting race. This smacks a bit of a handicap, or "everyone is a winner"-"let's not keep the score" type approach. The beauty of the sport is that the strongest man wins. And while 2003 was the nailbiter, and an amazing spectacle with crashes and almost "made for TV" tour, I don't think that next year when Armstrong retires and supposedly the playing field will be more level (and more mediocre), that the Tour will be much more exciting. Neither do I think that Giro or Vuelta are much more exciting than the Tour just because they are typically closer to each other.
> 
> This argument is sort of reminiscent of Chicago Bulls in late 1990ies, and sheer dominance of Michael Jodan - the game was so much fun to watch!!! He kinda spoiled it for me and now I don't follow basketball as closely. I think having a super-star like Jordan who could come out and win the game when Bulls are 10 points behind with 3 minutes to go was absolutely amazing to watch. And I am sure college basketball leagues were much more closely matched, but does close score all you really need for an exciting game?
> 
> ...


It's a great race with great competitors and it is what is.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*Just noticed you weren't around with such a juicy topic*



atpjunkie said:


> was I missed or is this an offhanded slag?
> 
> I'm no homer and I'm not pulling for him but I think the whole 'retiring thing' is just to provide motivation. he's gonna want to go out on top and giving himself an ultimatum provides him with the fuel to train. Personally I'd rather he done the Tour and finished with the Vuelta (hopefully pursuing a double) after all the Vuelta is where his comeback started and it would bring it full circle. but alas it's not the media event that the TdF is. If he was Samurai he'd finish there.


Of course I thought he should have done the Giro, TDF, and Vuelta.


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## jaldridge (Feb 27, 2005)

rocco said:


> Cunego is out with mononucleosis. Come to think of it Ullrich also looked like he had mononucleosis on the mountains during TDS.


 Not joking, just unaware of Cunego's illness. With that bit of news, I predict:

1... Jan Ullrich
2... Lance Armstrong
3... Floyd Landis


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## svend (Jul 18, 2003)

1) Armstrong 
2) Basso
3) Someone else unheralded (a Kloden type from out of the blue)

Would like to see Basso in the #1 but not sure if he is quite ready.
LA, still the man to beat. Will the relative good fortune hold for one more tour.
Ullrich, definate contender, and with this years route may surprise me.
Vino, another wild card who will be near the top.
Levi and Landis top 10, won't be close enough for the podium push
Botero, stage win, may crack top 10
Heras may make top 10 but I wouldn't put money on it
Valverde will be near the top.

Going with ATP, more Americans in top 10 than any other country


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## pantau (Jan 30, 2005)

boneman said:


> Illes Balaers- Mancebo and Valverde could each podium and I would say the latter has a better shot. Strong rider with a strong mindset. The other guy on this team I love is Vladimir Karpets. The name, the tufted beard, the hair and his strength amaze me. I'm surprised he can climb like he does. Only a matter of time before he breaks through.


great team! a bit underrated in this forum.... mancebo will make the top five or win the climber's jersey. valverde is going to win one or two stages while karpets takes the maillot blanc...


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## FishrCutB8 (Aug 2, 2004)

*There can be only one....*

It has to Iban Mayo. Here are the facts: He races on an Orbea. Bicycling magazine chose it as the Bike of the Year. It's a no-brainer...


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## R.Rice (Aug 23, 2004)

*Well,Ullrich*

Looks like Jan had a crash today...

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/tdf2005/news/story?id=2098527


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## wheezer (Sep 21, 2004)

*Look at ESPN!*



R.Rice said:


> Looks like Jan had a crash today...
> 
> http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/tdf2005/news/story?id=2098527


check out ESPN with the TdF "scoop!" booyah!


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## team_sheepshead (Jan 17, 2003)

1. Armstrong
Incredibly good luck, great genes and an unbreakable will. The hunger is still there. Listen to him talk and he speaks as much about the shame of losing as the joy of winning.
2. Basso (at :50)
Nice guys don't finish last, but they don't finish first this time. His improved ITT will shock people. The TdF will come down to the last ITT on the second-to-last day. Some real drama.
3. Valverde
As others have stated, certainly a team to watch. Mancebo, Karpets, etc. Can you imagine if they still had Menchov? Basso and Valverde will battle for years to come.
4. Vinokourov
He takes over the mantle when Ullrich DNFs. I have a feeling something weird will happen with him in '05--sort of hitting the bottom of the bad luck barrel. He'll get sick or something, lose 5 minutes on the Cormet-de-Roselend and another 5 on the climb to Courchevel. 
5. Landis
This guy was the next great hope, remember? Botero will pace him well in the mountains.


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*Valverde is a fresh addition*



team_sheepshead said:


> 1. Armstrong
> Incredibly good luck, great genes and an unbreakable will. The hunger is still there. Listen to him talk and he speaks as much about the shame of losing as the joy of winning.
> 2. Basso (at :50)
> Nice guys don't finish last, but they don't finish first this time. His improved ITT will shock people. The TdF will come down to the last ITT on the second-to-last day. Some real drama.
> ...


But will he not be supporting Mancebo?

But you can substitute Leipheimer with Landis. Levi has really taken on the seriousness to place or "try" for the win.


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## nwilkes (Jun 21, 2004)

team_sheepshead said:


> 1. Armstrong
> Incredibly good luck, great genes and an unbreakable will. The hunger is still there. Listen to him talk and he speaks as much about the shame of losing as the joy of winning.
> 2. Basso (at :50)
> Nice guys don't finish last, but they don't finish first this time. His improved ITT will shock people. The TdF will come down to the last ITT on the second-to-last day. Some real drama.
> ...


Landis' form right now is underwhelming. Botero may do better to pace himself, not Flying Floyd.

Going with the Frenchman winning the KOM, I'm calling Mancoutie malloit a pois (as if it matters).

I wonder how far up Popyvych will place?


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## STinGa (Mar 15, 2003)

*whooo, getting spooky isn't it....*



nwilkes said:


> Oh, and I predict Ullrich leads part of the race, then rides off the road or endos the MJ away. Oddly enough my Nostradamus-like presience ...
> 
> Whichever GC contender wins the prologue will also take the MJ.
> //forgive me


Looks like Jan had a crash today...

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/tdf20...tory?id=2098527


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## giovanni sartori (Feb 5, 2004)

1. Armstrong
2. Vino
3. Basso
4. Leipheimer
5. Ullrich
6. Karpets
7. Landis


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## RoadRacer06 (Jun 6, 2005)

1) Armstrong
2) Basso
3) Vino / Leipheimer


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

*Sorry*



RoadRacer06 said:


> 1) Armstrong
> 2) Basso
> 3) Vino / Leipheimer


Bidding on this item has ended. Try again next year.


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## soulsurfer104 (Jun 30, 2003)

*ranting because im bored*

magnolialover, that was a great post. you should do race commentary. hilarious.

anyway yeah, lance has already won. if nothing horrible happens (bad crash, psycho french farmer with a pitchfork, etc), then i see no reason to think that he isn't going to hammer everybody. again.

however, for some reason, i get this feeling that something horrible is going to happen, someone shooting lance or something. if that happens, i hope it's while he is attacking up a mountainside, in all his rage and glory. i just think there are too many people who hate him, and i really have a bad feeling about this year's tour.

on the so-called "contenders"....

ullrich looks horrible, but then i hate saying things for certain, because nothing is ever 100% certain. when i saw armstrong catch and pass ullrich in the prologue, i thought "well jan, youre fat and out of shape again. your tour is already over." but later in the day i was in my car and was pondering. i know pondering is dangerous, but i did it anyway. what if jan is trying to beat lance at lance's own game? what if jan is putting up the biggest bluff of all time? although he was slow in the prologue, i noticed that he wasnt exactly as fat as last year, and so may not be as out of shape either. what if he is trying to make everyone let their guard down? what if he is going to let everyone relax, and then launch a massive attack with the Mob??? unlikely because i dont think jan is that smart or that evil, but it would certainly make things interesting.

basso looks good, but not great. he did a fantastic TT in the giro, he'll finish on the podium in paris if he is still climbing as well as last year.

mayo's only chance at a podium finish is to get a massive amount of time on everybody in the mountains, enough to compensate for his time trialing ability (or lack thereof). if nothing else, mayo has a kick-a$$ team kit. love those uniforms. if they didn't clash with my bike i'd buy one.

heras. what about him? he goes uphill real fast, but midgets dont time trial well. at all. he and mayo can fight for the KOM jersey.


sorry folks, but as long as nothing horrible happens, lance is going to end his career by b1tch-slapping all of you.


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## mandre (Jul 6, 2005)

*secret plan!*

that supposed secret plan of Ullrich's might have worked.. but lance has got a fixed eye on him.

i'll probably get a lot of flame for this, but i don't get why people hate lance so much.. he's a great racer and has brought much of the population of america to focus more on the cycling world. he's probably the best thing to ever happen to cycling in america.

and since this is a prediction thread i gotta say lance is going to win, he's in the best shape of his life and has got more desire than any other race on the road.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

*I agree...*



mandre said:


> that supposed secret plan of Ullrich's might have worked.. but lance has got a fixed eye on him.
> 
> i'll probably get a lot of flame for this, but i don't get why people hate lance so much.. he's a great racer and has brought much of the population of america to focus more on the cycling world. he's probably the best thing to ever happen to cycling in america.
> 
> and since this is a prediction thread i gotta say lance is going to win, he's in the best shape of his life and has got more desire than any other race on the road.


A lot of the time people say screwed up and just plain dumb stuff on this discussion site.
It blows my mind on a daily basis. I think they need to add another forum called I See Dumb People.


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## KenB (Jul 28, 2004)

mandre said:


> ...he's a great racer and has brought much of the population of america to focus more on the cycling world. he's probably the best thing to ever happen to cycling in america.


 That's why they hate him. If you haven't noticed, American's aren't overly popular around the world anymore, specifically in Europe. Lance represents all that they hate about us and he's beaten them consistently on their own turf six times now. If the French are getting any of OLN's broadcasts with all of the slams and jabs at the them....

I want him to win just to continue spiting them.


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## Blue Sugar (Jun 14, 2005)

*Wishful thinking, I'm afraid.*

Armstrong will probably win again and then, thankfully, retire. Ullrich could beat him if he had the maturity and work ethic to prepare properly. Armstrongs tactic of training all yar for the Tour, racing no other races (except mabe a few) should not be allowed by the tour organization. They should require all riders to qualify by racing.


cannondale_boy said:


> 1) Jan Ullrich GC
> 2) Lance Armstrong.... 35 secs..
> 3) Santiago Botero.... 1min 25secs..
> 4) Alexandre Vinokourov 1min 45secs..
> ...


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

*Also... wishful thinking.*



Blue Sugar said:


> Armstrong will probably win again and then, thankfully, retire. Ullrich could beat him if he had the maturity and work ethic to prepare properly. Armstrongs tactic of training all yar for the Tour, racing no other races (except mabe a few) should not be allowed by the tour organization. They should require all riders to qualify by racing.


If only if.

Call Jean Marie LeBlanc, Christian Prudhomme and Hein Verbruggen and see what they think.


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

*And the winner is...BONEMAN*

After a quick review, is appear boneman just might have been the only one to call it. 
The big losers are the ones who predicted Lance wouldn't even finish. Second biggest losers are probably the ones who pulled a Mayo and joined Botero bandwagon. 
Me, I totally missed the T-Mobile loyalty boat. Instead of abandoning Jan once Vino looked good, they stuck with the hometown boy and let Vino audition for new teams on his own.


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## justice29 (Jul 11, 2003)

*Predictions*



magnolialover said:


> Hincapie can't long time trial, and can't climb at full out sustained efforts for too long. He'll never make the top 10 of the Tour de France. He's there for the flat parts between mountains on the long mountain days, and he's there to protect Armstrong on the flat stages and make sure he doesn't get gapped. He's not going to get a stage win. The only person on Disco who will get a stage win will be Armstrong. They don't ride for stage wins, they ride to win the race, which is why Armstrong has won the past 6 years in a row.
> 
> Mayo has a good shot at doing something, he's been pretty quiet so far this year. Might be saving it up this year instead of blowing his wad in the early season.
> 
> Ullrich will have a melt down, quit bike racing, and join the German circus if he doesn't win this year.



This is why one shouldn't make predictions. ;^)

Hincapie wins a very difficult mountain stage.

Two Discovery riders (aside from Lance) win stages.

Mayo is a non-factor.

Ullrich actually looked pretty good for a guy with two hard crashes under his belt.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*MaRider wins! whats his prize?*

MaRider wins! whats his prize?


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