# TDF - Yellow jersey predictions



## pr0230 (Jun 4, 2004)

Ive not even looked to see if Andy schleck will be riding in the TDF, but he is my pick to win the Yellow Jersey... I expect a srong showing from CSC for their Last Season with that sponsor.... 

Still want to see ASTANA get an invite... AND TURN IT DOWN!


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Menchov.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

Feels a bit early for this thread, but I'll play along.

I think it comes down to Evans versus Valverde. The question is "Can Valverde continue to TT like he did during the Dauphine?" If he does, then he will be very hard to beat. I've got this feeling that Valverde has one more gear left for the mountains, and I think that Evans might lose just a little time there.

Menchov is a good dark horse, but he is just a tad behind in climbing ability. Damiano Cunego is another dark horse, however his TT is going to cost him, and I don't think the can drop Evans and Valverde with authority in the mountains.

I wouldn't be surprised if some young, relatively unknown comes of age. 

All that to say Valverde will be my pick, Evans second.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Valverde, Menchov, Cunego will try for it, Schleck. Evans cracks and fails, ends up 3rd or 4th. Soler with a really outside chance.


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## zphogan (Jan 27, 2007)

1. Valverde
2. Menchov
3. F. Schleck
4. Evans
5. Cunego


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## tron (Jul 18, 2004)

But....CSC might be banking on Sastre so it might be difficult for F. Schleck. However, maybe they will let him fight it out with Gesnik for KOM


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## roadie92 (Jan 21, 2008)

1.Evans
2. Valverde
3.Menchov
4.Cuengo
......and F. Shleck somewhere in the top 10


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## Qstick333 (Jul 21, 2004)

1. Tom Danielson - heh heh, couldn't resist....


Actually - 

1. Valverde
2. Evans
3. Cunego
4. Schleck
5. Menchov


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Einstruzende said:


> Menchov is a good dark horse, but he is just a tad behind in climbing ability.


Maybe, certainly I don't think of Menchov as one of the great climbers, but Menchov did climb with (or ahead of) Evans in the Vuelta last year, and he mostly stayed with Contador and some of the others in the this year's Giro, which he was riding for training.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

From the time I knew Astana wasn't invited, my pick has been Alejandro Valverde.

It's the same now.

Cadel for 2nd perhaps.

Menchov for the last podium spot. 

Schleck can't TT well enough.

Cunego might fight it out but a top 5 (5th) is more likely in my books. Who knows for sure though but that's my pick.


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## Sprocket - Matt (Sep 13, 2005)

Everybody sounds like they are all in agreement...
The top 5 are all called out... Valverde, Evans, Menchov, Schleck, Cunego...
(btw - those all sound like pretty good picks, barring any crashes, or doping charges, j/k)

Any favs outside of these obvious contenders. Ricardo Ricco? Soler? Lovkvist? 
Some young climber that will be an unknown til he wins a pair of mt stages this season?


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

eh the overall is relatively easy to pick.

let's pick the FIRST wearer after stage 1.

here's the profile - it's a rolling road stage, not a TT.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/tour08/?id=stages/tour081

my pick: Cancellara


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## twiggy (Mar 23, 2004)

Cancellara is a given....he'll likely win the prologue...and if not, expect a win from him within the first week!


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## Sprocket - Matt (Sep 13, 2005)

twiggy said:


> Cancellara is a given....he'll likely win the prologue...


There is no prologue this year.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

I will further add that Frank Schleck won't be in the top 10. 

Where are you folks getting this idea that he is a top 5 GCer?


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

Because all the other real top 5 GC'ers are out of the tour.

I _really_ want Valverde to win it, but I think Evans is slightly better at the 3 week GT than Valverde. I would be elated if Evans loses it to anybody. He makes for a boring tour.


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## Guest (Jun 23, 2008)

Unfortunately for Evans, there are only two TTs and only one in the 50km range - and even that one isn't setup to be a fast route.


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## Jokull (Aug 13, 2007)

Creakyknees said:


> eh the overall is relatively easy to pick.
> 
> let's pick the FIRST wearer after stage 1.
> 
> ...


Freire


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Yeah Oscarito is another of my favorites. The way he rode in Switzerland is a good indicator.

Overall... meh everytime I try to think about it I wake up a few minutes later in a puddle of drool.


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## zphogan (Jan 27, 2007)

iliveonnitro said:


> Because all the other real top 5 GC'ers are out of the tour.
> 
> I _really_ want Valverde to win it, but I think Evans is slightly better at the 3 week GT than Valverde. I would be elated if Evans loses it to anybody. He makes for a boring tour.


Amen bro. I'll consider this Tour enjoyable if there are no scandals and anyone wins other than that wanker Evans.


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## enac (Aug 24, 2007)

Devolder


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## twiggy (Mar 23, 2004)

Sprocket - Matt said:


> There is no prologue this year.


Good point....forgot about that! ....oh well, my predicition of a win in the first week still stands though


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## Kris Flatlander (Sep 9, 2006)

enac said:


> Devolder


An excellent dark horse. 

For me...

1. Valverde
2. Cunego
3. Evans (maybe just not making up enough in the TT's to overcome a 1-2 punch of Cunego and Valverde in the high mountains)
4. Menchov
5. Devolder 
(6...10) Sastre, A. Schleck, Soler, Zubeldia, Kohl


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## teffisk (Mar 24, 2006)

nice. I'd like to top 2 to be switched, but probably really accurate


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## Retro Grouch (Apr 30, 2002)

I'm going out on a limb and say Sastre for the top spot. 

Cadel will have to withdraw due to a crash, and Valverde will crack on one of the mountain stages and will not be able to make up the time in the TTs.

If this prediction comes true, I'm buying a lotto ticket.


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## coldass (Oct 8, 2007)

iliveonnitro said:


> I would be elated if Evans loses it to anybody. He makes for a boring tour.


You have no idea do you? 
View attachment 130155


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Evans doesn't make the top spot. That's a guarantee. And he'll whine about his team being too weak again, even thought he'll have uber-domistique riding for him.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

I'll put money on the table that Soler will podium this year.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

moabbiker said:


> I'll put money on the table that Soler will podium this year.


For some strange reason, I tend to agree.

I think Ricco will make a good showing at least in the mountains. Piepoli and Ricco, Soler and Valverde in the mountains will be fun to watch.


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## Guest (Jun 25, 2008)

For the podium:

Cunego
Evans
Valverde

I think the order will depend on who has the best legs and whether or not Valv can manage to not get injured.


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## nicks2192 (Jan 25, 2008)

Fabian cancellara the way the race is set up this year with the TT before the final stage and no prolouge. its his this year


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## rollinrob (Dec 8, 2002)

Danny Pate, He is kinda hiding in peloton waiting to explode like Lance did in 99.... He can climb pretty well and time trial with the best of them. I think he may surprise some people this tour..


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## Mootsie (Feb 4, 2004)

rollinrob said:


> Danny Pate, He is kinda hiding in peloton waiting to explode like Lance did in 99.... He can climb pretty well and time trial with the best of them. I think he may surprise some people this tour..


I like it. A little crazy and waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out there, but I like it.
What actually makes it plausible is that he could get in an early break and pick up some big time chunks.


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## nicks2192 (Jan 25, 2008)

too bad contador wont be there


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## takl23 (Jul 22, 2007)

Valverde. Case closed.


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## Tumbleweed (Jun 6, 2005)

Linus Gerdemann is my dark horse to win.


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## Jokull (Aug 13, 2007)

Tumbleweed said:


> Linus Gerdemann is my dark horse to win.


He's not riding:

Team Columbia for Tour de France: Kim Kirchen, George Hincapie, Thomas Lövkvist, Kanstantsin Sivtsov, Mark Cavendish, Gerald Ciolek, Germany, Adam Hansen, Marcus Burghardt, Bernhard Eisel.


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## teffisk (Mar 24, 2006)

I think valverde will crack when he has the yellow jersey, lose huge chucks and fall from the leaders or crash or something


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## Guest (Jun 26, 2008)

nicks2192 said:


> Fabian cancellara the way the race is set up this year with the TT before the final stage and no prolouge. its his this year


I like Cancellara, but the TTs are too short for him him to make up *huge* time losses in the mountains. Maybe if there were 250km of TTs, including a TTT - then he'd have a chance.


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## ewarnerusa (Oct 11, 2007)

1. Evans
2. Menchov
3. Valverde

I think Valverde will be in yellow and crack on a mountain, just like others have previously mentioned. Evans will inherit the jersey and cover attacks as necessary until he arrives in Paris. Menchov will always be good enough to hang, but not good enough to successfully attack. But I hope Valverde actually does win. Arriba Balaverde!!


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## nicks2192 (Jan 25, 2008)

hes not horrible in the mountains though and as you have seen this year he has his sprinters legs too and no boonen to have to beat out.


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## hayduke1972 (Oct 3, 2007)

Everyone has the wrong Schleck in the top 10...it will be lil' bro Andy. But Sastre is their top guy and a top 5 finisher. Valverde has shown nothing in previous TDF's to believe he can win the overall. He's never even sniffed the podium!

1. Evans
2. Menchov
3. Sastre
4. Valverde
5. Cunego

Dark Horse...Kim Kirchen


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## teffisk (Mar 24, 2006)

Sivtsov for polka dot?


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## Raceoftruth (Oct 6, 2007)

Couple of things, first of all it's nice that no ones started whining about how the contenders this year are nowhere near the league of Armstrong, Ullrich, Basso, Vino etc. like they have been the last few years. Is it possible that we've finally got over the Lance withdrawl we had in '06 and (to a lesser extent) '07? Hopefully.

Also, the riders many of you mention have practically no record of consistency over a grand tour. Valverde? Had a great ride at Courchevel in '05 but hasn't had the same level as that at any stage since. Besides, his sprinting ability takes away from his TTing and climbing. Will go ok at Cholet but lose out at Hautacam and on the Bonette-Restefond.

Cunego? Same, good year in 2004 but hasn't been the same since the mono. Stage win and top 10.

Schlecks? Frank is inconsistent and Andy is unproven at this level. The Giro isn't the Tour and he has questioable dedication. Besides, Riis runs a tight ship and will have all the men working for Sastre. 

Evans is the man to beat, consistent in the climbs, great at day-to-day recovery and knows his limitations. He'll conserve energy and make big inroads in the final TT. The only question mark is his team and whether or not they will be able to cope if Cunego, Valverde, or even someone like Ricco decide to attack early. He will probably habe to rely on CSC to help out with the Med riders. 

Tough to pick a top 5 because of crashes, scandals etc. but likely winners would be:

1) Evans
2) Sastre
3) Menchov
4) Valverde

Cunego, Zubeldia, Ricco, Schlecks, Sanchez, Kreuzinger and Devolder would have to have a lucky breakaway to be a chance.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Stijn Devolder has a shot to get into the top 5, well, top 10 for sure. 

Schleck (Frank) ain't a top GC rider and like what einstruzende said, I don't see him having a shot other than perhaps in the top 10 or if he somehow gets into a break, then the top 5 perhaps.


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## teffisk (Mar 24, 2006)

Raceoftruth said:


> Cunego? Same, good year in 2004 but hasn't been the same since the mono. Stage win and top 10.



Cunego may not be at his Giro winning form, but he may be. He has been riding great tho and I think he will have some serious guns to fire in Le Tour.


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## The Weasel (Jul 20, 2006)

Sprocket - Matt said:


> Any favs outside of these obvious contenders. Ricardo Ricco? Soler? Lovkvist?
> Some young climber that will be an unknown til he wins a pair of mt stages this season?


I am somewhat new to this, but I am going to go with Popovych. He's shown that he can climb and attack on his own. He shows that fire. 
Menchov and Valverde will crack again in the mountains.


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## tron (Jul 18, 2004)

I was just checking the start lists. No Karpets for Valverde and no Gesink for Menchov.

It will be interesting to see what Pate can do. He seems amazingly talented and has relegated tt specialist Millar to 3rd or 4th best on his team in that discipline.


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## Guest (Jul 2, 2008)

teffisk said:


> Cunego may not be at his Giro winning form, but he may be. He has been riding great tho and I think he will have some serious guns to fire in Le Tour.


I have a 'feeling' the Cunego was holding back in the Tour de Suisse, so I put him in my top three, but I could easily be wrong. We'll see when what his real form is when the road reaches up to the sky. Valverde wasn't holding back - he was looking for the psychological benefit of a win, IMHO.


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## karatemom (Mar 21, 2008)

First of all, I'd like to mention that I picked Contador for last year's tour during last years prediction thread. So, my picks are one of the Schleks (I think maybe Frank), maybe Cunego, and I like Tyler Farrar, for no good reason. Maybe top 10 for him.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

karatemom said:


> First of all, I'd like to mention that I picked Contador for last year's tour during last years prediction thread. So, my picks are one of the Schleks (I think maybe Frank), maybe Cunego, and I like Tyler Farrar, for no good reason. Maybe top 10 for him.


Farrar is not on the start list, is he?


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

The Weasel said:


> I am somewhat new to this, but I am going to go with Popovych. He's shown that he can climb and attack on his own. He shows that fire.
> Menchov and Valverde will crack again in the mountains.


Crazy talk for two reasons:
Popo isn't on Disco/Astana now, so no "Bruyneel magic", and he is working for the #1 contender! 

Even though I have picked Valverde, Evans is the only person racing that has shown consistency and durability in the Tour. I just cannot believe there would be a situation where Popo is allowed to go out and put time into Evans, so long as Evans is in the race. Think of Hinault/LeMond, 1985.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Einstruzende said:


> Crazy talk for two reasons:
> Popo isn't on Disco/Astana now, so no "Bruyneel magic", and he is working for the #1 contender!
> 
> Even though I have picked Valverde, Evans is the only person racing that has shown consistency and durability in the Tour. I just cannot believe there would be a situation where Popo is allowed to go out and put time into Evans, so long as Evans is in the race. Think of Hinault/LeMond, 1985.


I agree with you, but then there is Cunego/Simoni 2004, and Ullrich/Riis 1997. Still, I agree with you, because while I like Popo, I'm not sure he's on the level of Cunego, much less Ullrich.


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## karatemom (Mar 21, 2008)

harlond said:


> Farrar is not on the start list, is he?


Hmmm..you appear to be right. I thought he was, but I guess not. This doesn't really bode well for my Tour predictions in general. Okay, I'll go with Cunego. Maybe Menchov.


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## The Weasel (Jul 20, 2006)

Einstruzende said:


> Crazy talk for two reasons:
> Popo isn't on Disco/Astana now, so no "Bruyneel magic", and he is working for the #1 contender!
> 
> Even though I have picked Valverde, Evans is the only person racing that has shown consistency and durability in the Tour. I just cannot believe there would be a situation where Popo is allowed to go out and put time into Evans, so long as Evans is in the race. Think of Hinault/LeMond, 1985.


I did think of that, but I just don't believe Evans is the #1 contender. Obviously he's Silence-Lotto's GC guy, but even though he's moved up in places, I still think #1 eludes him. Popo was 8th(?) last year, and if Cadel struggles (which I think he will-pressure will get the best of him), Popo is now the guy. I think he'll be riding strong the whole tour, so that if the situation arises, he can do it. Remember, I was replying to a post thatsaid go outside the regular top picks. Last year Levi wound up having to ride for Alverto, even if it was only for a couple stages at the end.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

The Weasel said:


> I did think of that, but I just don't believe Evans is the #1 contender. Obviously he's Silence-Lotto's GC guy, but even though he's moved up in places, I still think #1 eludes him. Popo was 8th(?) last year, and if Cadel struggles (which I think he will-pressure will get the best of him), Popo is now the guy. I think he'll be riding strong the whole tour, so that if the situation arises, he can do it. Remember, I was replying to a post thatsaid go outside the regular top picks. Last year Levi wound up having to ride for Alverto, even if it was only for a couple stages at the end.


I'm a Popo fan, but he didn't exactly show himself to be immune from pressure for Discovery the year after LA retired. He had a chance to assert himself on GC that year and he didn't do it. I'm no fan of the whinger Evans, but he's pretty good at avoiding the bad day.


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## danielc (Oct 24, 2002)

I'm sorry but has valverde finished a tour yet? I thought he was always caught up with bad luck.


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

danielc said:


> I'm sorry but has valverde finished a tour yet? I thought he was always caught up with bad luck.


6th in 2006 or was it 07.


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## Richard (Feb 17, 2006)

I have to go with Valverde. His time trialing has improved significantly and he can climb with the best of them.

Now if he just doesn't fall off his bike.


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## Run1stBike2nd (Oct 28, 2005)

Evans
Sastre
Menchov

I'd go with Valverde, but I predict that he'll crash out. I'll actually be pulling for Cunego, but he can't TT well enough.


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## Retro Grouch (Apr 30, 2002)

*Well, close enough.*

Got the ultimate fate of Cadel all wrong, but I picked the top dog for the win. Off to the liquor store I go to buy $5.00 worth of Super Lotto Quickpicks 



Retro Grouch said:


> I'm going out on a limb and say Sastre for the top spot.
> 
> Cadel will have to withdraw due to a crash, and Valverde will crack on one of the mountain stages and will not be able to make up the time in the TTs.
> 
> If this prediction comes true, I'm buying a lotto ticket.





PJay said:


> what numbers are you playing?


*07 15 32 37 44 MEGA 19* Good luck! I don't mind splitting the 40 million jackpot.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*good call retro grouch*

what numbers are you playing?


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## cpark (Oct 13, 2004)

Retro Grouch said:


> Got the ultimate fate of Cadel all wrong, but I picked the top dog for the win. Off to the liquor store I go to buy $5.00 worth of Super Lotto Quickpicks
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Good call.
I'm gonna get a power ball ticket with the number you used....


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*summary of our picks in the Pjay prediction thread*

hey everyone-
i just reviewed our predictions, and put a summary in the other predictions thread. Congrats, Grouchy


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