# Can Cancellara win L-B-L and Lombardia?



## farm (Jul 10, 2008)

I'm having a hard time visualizing that big dude taking races I associate with guys like Bettini and Cunego, but if he thinks he can do it, I'm not inclined to contradict him. What do people think?

(And I do think he looks thinner this year, but I wonder how much more he can lose.)

Anyway, if he does go for it, I'll be rooting him on: it would be colossal.
Also, I wonder if Boonen was slightly relieved to hear about this.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

I think he could win LBL if everything worked out just right. Not saying he would win, but that it's possible, IMO.

Not sure about Lombardia...that's got a lot of long climbs.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

farm said:


> I'm having a hard time visualizing that big dude taking races I associate with guys like Bettini and Cunego, but if he thinks he can do it, I'm not inclined to contradict him. What do people think?
> 
> (And I do think he looks thinner this year, but I wonder how much more he can lose.)
> 
> ...


Short answer is not in 2010. Definitely not LBL in 2010.

If he looses more weight he'll definitely loose some of the power as well. Personally I don't see why he would want to change anything. IMO he's already the MVP at Saxo Bank unless Riis found a new sponsor who's only concern is the TdF.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

MG537 said:


> Short answer is not in 2010. Definitely not LBL in 2010.
> 
> If he looses more weight he'll definitely loose some of the power as well.


He lost weight last year and this year. How did his power do?


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

den bakker said:


> He lost weight last year and this year. How did his power do?


He's listed at 6'1" and 176lbs. (186cm 80kg at team-saxobank.com). How much more would he have to loose in order to be competitive at a race like L-B-L? Maybe go down to 165lbs? 160lbs?
Firstly, for someone of his body-type would that be a healthy weight?
Secondly, wouldn't he have to loose some muscle mass in order to get down to that weight? I don't see much body fat he could loose?

Of course I'm just speculating but if you have some links or info to share, please do.


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## mtbbmet (Apr 2, 2005)

If you look at his performances in the Olympics, 2009 worlds, and as a Schleck domestique at the Tour it would seem pretty apparent that he has the climbing ability to win those races. He could win Lombardia this year if he puts his mind to it. He's usually good for a late season peak.


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## euro-trash (May 1, 2004)

MG537 said:


> He's listed at 6'1" and 176lbs. (186cm 80kg at team-saxobank.com). How much more would he have to loose in order to be competitive at a race like L-B-L? Maybe go down to 165lbs? 160lbs?


He could win LBL right now. His body type is not ideal for it, and he will never likely be a favorite, but with his power, he could win with the right circumstance. With his current team, if he got a gap after La Redoute, and the Schleck Bros, Kurt , or Mattie were in the group (it's likely at least one would be left), there would apprehension in towing them to the line and FC could ride clear. 


Lombardia: FC is definitely not suited to it, but there are so few people racing at 100% that time of year, he could win if he were at the peak of his form. This year, so many riders will go to Australia for Worlds and won't race again, or will be a shell of their former form when they return to Europe. If he were able to recover from the trip quickly, he could have a great shot.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

MG537 said:


> He's listed at 6'1" and 176lbs. (186cm 80kg at team-saxobank.com). How much more would he have to loose in order to be competitive at a race like L-B-L? Maybe go down to 165lbs? 160lbs?
> Firstly, for someone of his body-type would that be a healthy weight?
> Secondly, wouldn't he have to loose some muscle mass in order to get down to that weight? I don't see much body fat he could loose?
> 
> Of course I'm just speculating but if you have some links or info to share, please do.


I'm not the one saying lower weight=less power  
That must be some old info on the team web page, which would not be the first time by a long shot. 








No way he is comparable in weight to Boonen. Wiki has him at 77, which would put him relatively close to Andrea Tafi.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

euro-trash said:


> He could win LBL right now. His body type is not ideal for it, and he will never likely be a favorite, but with his power, he could win with the right circumstance. With his current team, if he got a gap after La Redoute, and the Schleck Bros, Kurt , or Mattie were in the group (it's likely at least one would be left), there would apprehension in towing them to the line and FC could ride clear.


I could see a small-to-medium-size select group at the end, and Cancellara taking a flier up the finishing grade with 1km to go. With Valverde or Gilbert in hot pursuit that would be an exciting finish. However, more likely for this year Cancellara will be working for a team mate to repay them for their support in Flanders and likely Paris-Roubaix.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

The problem with LBL 2010 is he's going to be on the steep downside of his post-peak fitness curve. 2011, who knows.

But Lombardia... yeah he could be on form for that. Winning it though is a different ballgame.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

euro-trash said:


> He could win LBL right now. His body type is not ideal for it, and he will never likely be a favorite, but with his power, he could win with the right circumstance. With his current team, if he got a gap after La Redoute, and the Schleck Bros, Kurt , or Mattie were in the group (it's likely at least one would be left), there would apprehension in towing them to the line and FC could ride clear.


It would surprise me quite a bit if FC participates in this year's LBL. Judging by his performances he was already in top form or very near it for E3 and Flanders and there is no reason to believe that he won't be there for Roubaix. Now LBL is 2 weeks after that. He would have to stay at the top or near for a whole month.
Besides the Ardennes classics were always the domain of the Schleck brothers and Andy is defending champion at LBL. I don't see Riis changing that formula.
I don't know if Matti Breschel will participate in any of the Ardennes classics and if by Kurt you mean Asle-Arvesen, he's riding with SKY this year.

As far as Giro di Lombardia is concerned, that is far off into the future and many things can happen by then.


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## Tugboat (Jul 17, 2006)

I'd be willing to gamble that by the end of his career he'll have bagged a win in all 5 monuments.


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## farm (Jul 10, 2008)

Tugboat said:


> I'd be willing to gamble that by the end of his career he'll have bagged a win in all 5 monuments.


(According to some googling) it would put him in a group with these guys: Roger De Vlaeminck, Rik Van Looy and Eddy Merckx. (Kelly came close.) That's a good group.

I love the audacity of it. He could clearly just keep doing what he has been doing and rack up a bunch more wins.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

*He’s Got the Goods*

I feel privileged to watch his career unfold. He sets new goals and pursues them. Was Bettini the last rider to have won 3 of 5 monuments? Who else has potential AND is willing to ride all 5? Gilbert comes to mind.

Cancellara was an instigator in the World’s RR last year, showing that he can be competitive in a hilly race. I think he’ll ride for LBL next year, but possibly Lombardia this year. Where the climbs are and their steepness make a difference, but here are some stats for both the world’s course and L-B-L (If anyone can provide Lombardia’s elevation gain, pls do): 

L-B-L 
http://www.slipstreamsports.com/2009/05/01/ryder-hesjedals-garmin-edge-705-data-liege-bastogne-liege 
162 miles, 
elevation gain 4,245 meters =13,929 feet 


2009 WC 
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/76th-uci-road-world-championships-cm/mens-elite-road-race 
162.9 miles 
elevation gain 4,655 meters = 15,273 feet


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*he's a machine*

I don't think he has much desire for the others. I could see him taking a summer break and repeaking for Lombardia, I just don't see him sacrificing the Ronde and P-R for L-B-L


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

atpjunkie said:


> I don't think he has much desire for the others. I could see him taking a summer break and repeaking for Lombardia, I just don't see him sacrificing the Ronde and P-R for L-B-L


He said, "My dream is five monuments and I have three now. There aren’t so many riders in the peloton that have three. My motivation is always geared towards _more than one race._ Okay, now I have [Flanders], but in the next few years, it's possible I'm going to work on other ones."


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

I am a huge fan of Cancellara but lets be real. LBL and Lombardy are the climber classics, sure its possible but exceedingly doubtful. Any race that Schleck wins kinda rules out any chance. Totally different body types and you have to go with what you have. I hope he wins P-R but the rest is fairly impossible. There are many riders out there training for their peaks in a couple of weeks, waiting for their turn at glory. I think Evans is going to ride LBL, His body type of almost climber is more suited for LBL.


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## mtbbmet (Apr 2, 2005)

gh1 said:


> I am a huge fan of Cancellara but lets be real. LBL and Lombardy are the climber classics, sure its possible but exceedingly doubtful. Any race that Schleck wins kinda rules out any chance. Totally different body types and you have to go with what you have. I hope he wins P-R but the rest is fairly impossible. There are many riders out there training for their peaks in a couple of weeks, waiting for their turn at glory. I think Evans is going to ride LBL, His body type of almost climber is more suited for LBL.


Not to be rude, but do you have any evidence that says that he can't climb? Sure, he's not going to drop Contador in the last km's of a tour climb. But he can ride hard enough on the front working for the Schlecks to drop 9/10th of the field on the opening slopes of a climb. He almost won a very hilly olympics, and a very hilly worlds. I say he can climb more than well enough to contend for both of those races. He won't ride LBL this year, but he could peak again for Lombardia this year. He's already said he likely won't ride the ITT at worlds cause it's no longer a challenge for him, so a peak for GdL is possible.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

LBL will be tough for him to win in his current circumstances, because there are other guys on his team who are much better suited for it. Would Andy Schleck step aside to give him the chance?

MSR is the oddity in his palmares. As a hardman, he should win Roubaix and Flanders, but going against sprinters at MSR? No way.

But then MSR is kind of the oddity for Bettini, too. Bettini should win LBL and Lombardia, but MSR? Maybe. At least Bettini has proven to have a sprint over the years, so maybe it's not so much an oddity as it seems.


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## farm (Jul 10, 2008)

mohair_chair said:


> MSR is the oddity in his palmares. As a hardman, he should win Roubaix and Flanders, but going against sprinters at MSR? No way.
> 
> 
> I don't think MSR is that weird for FC. I don't remember how it played out, but he's one of the best descenders around, and he's shown that he can beat the sprinters with an early jump (e.g., TdF stage 3 a couple years ago.) I think he could do it again if he made it a priority.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

mtbbmet said:


> Not to be rude, but do you have any evidence that says that he can't climb? Sure, he's not going to drop Contador in the last km's of a tour climb. But he can ride hard enough on the front working for the Schlecks to drop 9/10th of the field on the opening slopes of a climb. He almost won a very hilly olympics, and a very hilly worlds. I say he can climb more than well enough to contend for both of those races. He won't ride LBL this year, but he could peak again for Lombardia this year. He's already said he likely won't ride the ITT at worlds cause it's no longer a challenge for him, so a peak for GdL is possible.


Evidence? Well I guess you can review the results he has but seriously, he weighs more than 30lbs more than an elite climber. Hey, go with it and you can document our conversation and throw it right back at me if he wins. Also, towing climbers on the opening slopes of a climb, aint winning.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Didn't they come up with a new finish line for the MSR he won? I'm not sure if that was a one-time thing or if they have used the same finish ever since.


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## farm (Jul 10, 2008)

mohair_chair said:


> Didn't they come up with a new finish line for the MSR he won? I'm not sure if that was a one-time thing or if they have used the same finish ever since.


I think it's been the same since then, at least it looks that way to me on the videos.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Right now (after he dominated PR), it's hard to say that there are any classics that are out of reach for Fabian. I suspect he would ride for Andy in L-B-L, but Lombardia is another matter.

Sparticus is ripping up the roads right now - but how long can he maintain this level?


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

He won MSR by attacking the lead out train 2-3k to go. They were stymied, couldn't believe anybody could go faster than they were and he just opended the gap. He's done this on a couple of occasions. A Tour stage in yellow comes to mind.

Who's the biggest (size) rider to win LBL and Lombardia? Let's not forget, the guy is from Switzerland, it's not exaclty flat there. Others here are probably right, for him to have a team working for him on this would mean safer bets stepping aside.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

davidka said:


> He won MSR by attacking the lead out train 2-3k to go. They were stymied, couldn't believe anybody could go faster than they were and he just opended the gap. He's done this on a couple of occasions. A Tour stage in yellow comes to mind.
> 
> Who's the biggest (size) rider to win LBL and Lombardia? Let's not forget, the guy is from Switzerland, it's not exaclty flat there. Others here are probably right, for him to have a team working for him on this would mean safer bets stepping aside.


If Andy (and/or Frank) Schleck is still not on form, he could be co-leader or leader of Saxxo Bank.
I think he can do it if the team is fully behind him. He cannot attack Schlecks if they are targeting it for the win. Or can he?


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## waldo425 (Sep 22, 2008)

"He’s up there with best riders of all time in the Classics and going forward I can see him winning Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Lombardia," said Kelly, who won Liège-Bastogne-Liège twice and Lombardia three times.

I don't have a clue personally. I think that it will be interesting either way.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

55x11 said:


> If Andy (and/or Frank) Schleck is still not on form, he could be co-leader or leader of Saxxo Bank.
> I think he can do it if the team is fully behind him. He cannot attack Schlecks if they are targeting it for the win. Or can he?


The Ardennes classics are the domain of the Schlecks. Andy is defending champion at LBL. I don't see Riis putting up with the type of shenanigans we all saw from Astana in 2009.
Besides FC has proven time and again that he is one hell of a team player.
Thirdly he won't be targeting any of the Ardennes this year. If he rides, it will be in support of the brothers Schleck. 
Giro di Lombardia is still months away.


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## Eric_H (Feb 5, 2004)

Umm, you guys are all forgetting Fabs won the GC at the Tour of Switzerland last year. Now it was not exactly the most mountainous Tour de Suisse in the history books but still shows he is capable of almost anything. Plus the Olympic RR in Beijing was also a climbing course and if you look at the lead group (Sanchez, Rebellin, Kolobnev, A Schleck, Rogers, Fabs) he would have been the guy most would say is NOT a climber. And as mentioned his performance in last year's worlds RR was impressive as well. Seemed like L-B-L and Lombardy winners like Cunego and Valverde were having a hard time containing Cancellara that day.

L-B-L is a climber's race but less and less so each year. First off the climbs are steep and longer than Flanders but they are still power climbs of 1-4 km and favor punchy riders who can put out a high wattage for 3-7 minutes over and over. Advances in rider preparation (take that any way you want) and equipment have sort of reduced L-B-L to a race that comes down to the favorites playing a waiting game and attacking within the last 25 km. Rarely does the race winning move happen from La Redoute anymore. The recent style of racing at L-B-L helps Cancellara to get close enough to the finish to win. The addition of the Cote de la Roche aux Faucons where Andy Schleck attacked last year seems to be the new selection point but it is only 1.5 km and 20 km from the finish. The final climb up to the finish in Ans is not that steep, he could easily ride away in the right situation.

Lombardy in theory would be the hardest of the monuments for Cancellara to win, but again the race has evolved in recent years to where the real action all happens in the final 25 km. The Ghisallo is now more of a softener and pre-selector and usually serves to make up the front group of 20 maybe, but does not decide the race. The final two climbs (Civiglio and San Fermo) are difficult, no doubt about it but I think well within the capability of Fabs to pull it off in the right situation with super form. Civiglio and San Fermo are not that different in length and gradient than the L-B-L climbs.

Final datapoint for me: Before his purple patch of form last fall, I would have said Phil Gilbert was not a candidate for Lombardy as he had never shown the ability to climb that well either. And we all know what happened there....


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

I was surprised to discover that Oscar Friere has done well at LBL the last two years. He finished 14th last year (same time as 3rd place), and was 11th the year before behind teammate Dekker. Cancellara could do it.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Eric_H said:


> Final datapoint for me: Before his purple patch of form last fall, I would have said Phil Gilbert was not a candidate for Lombardy as he had never shown the ability to climb that well either. And we all know what happened there....


In this thread from a couple years ago Gilbert got a mention but was certainly not one of the likely candidates to win all 5 monuments: 
http://forums.roadbikereview.com/showthread.php?t=128422
Then again he did have decent results in the Ardennes classics that year, 4th in LBL and Amstel, so Lombardia is less of a long shot.

Cancellara has never shown that ability, but I don't think he has ever gone for the win in those races.


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## euro-trash (May 1, 2004)

mohair_chair said:


> LBL will be tough for him to win in his current circumstances, because there are other guys on his team who are much better suited for it. Would Andy Schleck step aside to give him the chance?


His team (granted it may not continue past this season) is why he could win in any given year. I'm not going to pick him to win, but it could happen. The only way I envision him winning is by going on the false-flat after La Redoute. This would be a logical place for him to attack to set-up his teammates that are better suited to the finish. However, if the chase doesn't start right away and he was to get 1 minute going into the St. Nick climb (and right after La Redoute who is going to pull like made while dragging at least one of his teammates?) he could certainly stay away for the win. 

Again, it's not probable, but it CAN happen (which is how the OP phrased the question).

The Schlecks, even if they are in form, wouldn't/couldn't do anything about it as they'd be under strict orders to just sit-on. In the event he was brought back, they would be there for the counter. So in that sense, it's a likely move to occur if he does make it over La Redoute with the leaders, and one done in the name of teamwork. Since he's so strong, he could end-up staying away.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

Eric_H said:


> Umm, you guys are all forgetting Fabs won the GC at the Tour of Switzerland last year. Now it was not exactly the most mountainous Tour de Suisse in the history books but still shows he is capable of almost anything. Plus the Olympic RR in Beijing was also a climbing course and if you look at the lead group (Sanchez, Rebellin, Kolobnev, A Schleck, Rogers, Fabs) he would have been the guy most would say is NOT a climber. And as mentioned his performance in last year's worlds RR was impressive as well. Seemed like L-B-L and Lombardy winners like Cunego and Valverde were having a hard time containing Cancellara that day.
> 
> L-B-L is a climber's race but less and less so each year. First off the climbs are steep and longer than Flanders but they are still power climbs of 1-4 km and favor punchy riders who can put out a high wattage for 3-7 minutes over and over. Advances in rider preparation (take that any way you want) and equipment have sort of reduced L-B-L to a race that comes down to the favorites playing a waiting game and attacking within the last 25 km. Rarely does the race winning move happen from La Redoute anymore. The recent style of racing at L-B-L helps Cancellara to get close enough to the finish to win. The addition of the Cote de la Roche aux Faucons where Andy Schleck attacked last year seems to be the new selection point but it is only 1.5 km and 20 km from the finish. The final climb up to the finish in Ans is not that steep, he could easily ride away in the right situation.
> 
> ...


Not forgetting at all and watched that entire race online. I am huge fan of Cancellara but weight is weight no matter how you look at it. One rule of thumb is that on a hilly course that 1lb equals a 1% disadvantage. Not sure what Schleck weighs but i would guess that puts FC at about a 30-40% disadvantage on these two races. Not saying he cant do it but its exceedingly doubtful. Most people rode the tour de suisse as a warm up for TDF and it also had a fairly long, flatish TT at the end which is where FC is the ultimate king.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Could Cancellara win the Tour de France?

There's some hyperbole in this article. There's no way he could compete with Contador, but if Contador wasn't there or wasn't fit or had a catastrophe ... who knows? It's not clear to me that Cancellara would take the time out to whittle himself down to a Grand Tour GC contender.


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## MaddSkillz (Mar 13, 2007)

Peak form or not... I think the question is if FC in non-peak form could still pull away from most riders in the pro-peloton. He completely thrashed them in the PR. I'd say there's some wiggle room.


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