# ToC predictions



## peter.hardie (May 31, 2006)

Am I jumping the gun here? For the podium I'm thinking:

1. Leipheimer
2. Basso
3. Vande Velde

It's not very imaginative, I know, when you look at the results from last year but it's hard to see who'll could displace Leipheimer or Vande Velde from the podium other than Basso, Sastre and Landis. Landis and Sastre don' thave as strong of teams as Astana and Garmin. I assume Lance'll ride for Levi as winning the ToC is important for Levi and he'll expect the favour returned at the Giro.

It'll be interesting to see how Basso stacks up against this field. I figure he'll be strong. He's got something to prove this year. Advantage to Levi as trains for this race and he's got the stronger team.

The top 10 from 2008 were:

1. LEIPHEIMER
2. MILLAR
3. VANDEVELDE 
4. CANCELLARA 
5. LARSSON 
6. ZABRISKIE
7. HORNER 
8. VANDEWALLE 
9. GESINK 
10. MOOS


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## peter.hardie (May 31, 2006)

err..Advantage to Levi as trains for this race and he's got the stronger team...

Rather, he seems to make winning this race a serious goal each year as opposed to treating it as a 'training race'.


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## desmo13 (Jun 28, 2006)

1: Levi (it is HIS race)
2: Landis (he wants it/needs it the most)
3: Someone else whose name starts with "L".. Larson, Lance, Lowe, Lancaster, Louder, Latham, Lill, Lucas, Luis (just because it would be fun to have a "L" trifecta.


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## twain (May 18, 2004)

It's remarkable that Millar got 2nd overall last year. But what an incredible field this year. 
A friend of mine thinks Lance will abandon early--that the race will be too hard 
Things are working out too pat for Levi so I don't think he'll win this year.

Just to be controversial, I'll put out:
1. Tyler Hamilton
2. Hincapie
3. Andy Schleck


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

I'll take a gamble and say Landis wins the GC. Levi takes a close 2nd.


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## funktekk (Jul 29, 2006)

I don't think Basso or VDV are targeting this race. Where as Levi, Rock Racing (several potential race leaders), and Landis are all geared up for this race. I suspect thta Garmin will have a team leader in the mix, but it will probably be on the lesser known guys on the team. Hincapie is a possibility since he is gearing up for the spring classics, but I don't think he has the ITT to hang with some of the other guys.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

None of the Giro/Tour guys will do too well; its early and certain riders and teams peak for this event. Many of the domestic pro teams will be super aggressive this year, seeing how it paid off for BMC last year.


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Do we know anything about Floyd? Has he had any results since having that "little" jpint replacement? Give me Tyler. I cant get over seeing him destroy the entire Garmin squad by himself last year in greenville. They threw 10 guys at him and he still won. As`someone said this is his TDF I guess. Then again the whole thing could be a TT in which case Dave Z only has to survive a few climbs. Ya know, this is going to be fun!
2) Levi
3)VDV


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

Levi has to be the big favorite for this one, he's owned it the past 2 years. I don't think VDV will be on form just yet, long Chicago winter and he and his wife just welcomed baby #2, so he's probably going to play a secondary role. Zabriskie and Danielson are both supposedly on good form right now, so I wouldn't count them out. Landis has a lot he'll want to prove, but it's been awhile since he's raced in anger. Basso looked good earlier this year so I think he may have something to say.

So top 3, Levi, Danielson, Cancellara.


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## Samhain (Jun 14, 2008)

Levi is going to be there for certain. I would like to see Landis in the mix. I think Andy Schleck is going to be a big contender.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

bigmig19 said:


> Do we know anything about Floyd? Has he had any results since having that "little" jpint replacement?


Results are hard to come by when you are suspended. But he did finish second in the 2007 Leadville 100, post-hip replacement. So I doubt that's an issue.


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## Samhain (Jun 14, 2008)

bigmig19 said:


> Do we know anything about Floyd? Has he had any results since having that "little" jpint replacement?


He is pissed and wants to prove himself. Landis is going to be fun to watch. Whether his squad can provide the support he needs to contend is another story.


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## ProRoad (Oct 13, 2008)

Cant wait, getting depressed. My wife saw pro riders at a gas station in santa clarita yesterday. ahh the agony.

Cant wait til Saturday.

Levi
Floyd
Tommy D


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## kmac (Feb 13, 2007)

I don't mean to slam the guy, I don't wish anything bad on him, but how can anyone place any confidence on Danielson's performance? I guess the horse and cart order for me is that I'm not going to expect/predict results from him until he actually starts showing some again.

That being said, I'm looking forward to both the GC competition and the stage competition between Boonen and Cavendish.


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## peter.hardie (May 31, 2006)

kmac said:


> I don't mean to slam the guy, I don't wish anything bad on him, but how can anyone place any confidence on Danielson's performance? I guess the horse and cart order for me is that I'm not going to expect/predict results from him until he actually starts showing some again.
> 
> That being said, I'm looking forward to both the GC competition and the stage competition between Boonen and Cavendish.


Agreed. Boonen's going to have to start working out strategies on dealing with Cavendish for stage races. It'll be interesting to see if he adjusts from Qatar. I read something where he said he needs to push the pace and ride Cavendish into the ground effectively eliminating him before the sprint.

I just realized that Fuji Cervetto isn't invited so I guess that means no Dominguez who usually manages a stage or two.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

I know he's the sentimental pick, but I just don't see VdV doing anything this early in the season. Every indication has been that he's a little behind on training after his winter in Chicago and his training was focused for July anyway. 

My underdog is someone from the Bissel team. Zirbel showed what he's got last year and the Jacques-Maynes brothers are pretty good.

1.Levi
2.Landis
3a.Danielson (if he has it)
3b. BJM


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

I still want to know how a guy with a year off and a hip replacement is a favorite? Is there even a precedent for that in any sport? Not hip _surgery_, hip *replacement*...like grandma gets! Is Leadville on par with a pro tour event? If Floyd wins it would be the greatest injury comeback of all time. It wont be celebrated of course due to... well.. you know.


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## Patti (May 20, 2008)

It'll be interesting with a more mountainous terrain this year.... I agree that Levi will be in the mix and Floyd may surprise us too. I'd also love to see Dave Z get a stage!

Patti


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## The_Boy (Oct 25, 2005)

bigmig19 said:


> I still want to know how a guy with a year off and a hip replacement is a favorite? Is there even a precedent for that in any sport? Not hip _surgery_, hip *replacement*...like grandma gets! Is Leadville on par with a pro tour event? If Floyd wins it would be the greatest injury comeback of all time. It wont be celebrated of course due to... well.. you know.



From what I read, the hip replacement eliminated the sharp pains he had with the deteriorating hip. So in theory post replacement hip should yeild a better Floyd. Also, not to start a Floyd vs. Lance argument, but I think coming back from cancer beats coming back from hip replacement.


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## funktekk (Jul 29, 2006)

bigmig19 said:


> I still want to know how a guy with a year off and a hip replacement is a favorite? Is there even a precedent for that in any sport? Not hip _surgery_, hip *replacement*...like grandma gets! Is Leadville on par with a pro tour event? If Floyd wins it would be the greatest injury comeback of all time. It wont be celebrated of course due to... well.. you know.


From what I understand it wasn't a replacement, but a resurfacing. It is a relatively new technique, that is only applicable in certain cases.


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## cycledog81 (Jan 8, 2008)

Tyler may a good bet at this point, R&R needs some good results here or they will be gone in June for sure. Danielson "I'm foaming at the mouth" will find a way to crash on a descent or get sick and not finish...again. Floyd maybe the the real unknown here, but his team can't match up to Astana and Garmin. If it is close going into the last stage then it will come down to those that are climbers and didn't get shelled in the TT.


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## ciclisto (Nov 8, 2005)

*Floyd*

Floyd: motivated, rested, resurfaced, no wife, no house, proof to Lance, on his home turf on Palomar, well you get it. Won last time out..........got to go with Landis, Levi, Lance..


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Cancer does not trump hip replacement because with cancer, you either lose or you win (and thankfully he won). No disrespect, but pro hockey, basketball, and football players come back from cancer every year (certainly not like LA situation, granted). With hip replacement, 99.9999% of people are elated to be able to walk around the block pain free as their goal. Name one person in history who had replacement surgery that went on to perform in a sport as difficult as cycling. _Resurfacing _is fancy term for filetting open your entire hip joint and putting two metal components in just like a replacement (you just dont _cut_ bone). Tearing an ACL is akin to a hang-nail compared to joint resurfacing.


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## Don Duende (Sep 13, 2007)

1) Levi
2) Cancellara
3) Landis
4) Hamilton

Expect a tight field among the contenders the top ten riders will be within 30 seconds of the leader. Due to weather maybe 50% will abandon the race. Expect some surprises with younger lesser known riders contending.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

I think the last stage is being underestimated; Armstrong was right in his cyclingnews interview - Cole grade after Palomar is a tough section. The field will definitely split up Palomar, and a few could get away on Cole grade. It will be hard to organize a chase, and Cole grade road after the initial climb is a twisting rolling road perfect for a couple of riders to stay away on. From there, it's basically a downhill run in to the finish. Easy to get a minute or more there...I'll predict jens voigt and oscar sevilla get away.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I don't know, Hincapie can ride a pretty good ITT when he feels like it.....I just can't tell where the ToC is on his priority list this year. If he goes for it I think he'll be on the podium. I'm pretty sure he will go for a stage win, either way. 

1. Levi
2. Basso
3. Hincapie?


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

I think in a mild upset no one from Astana wins the race. Basso or Rogers make a nice choice, as both can TT/Climb, and they might want to show the other big names that they're still around.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

While the TT is still going to be very important this year, I don't know that it will be the ultimate decider it has been in the past. The stage 2 finish has time break written all over it. The Climb right before the finish sets up a great opportunity to break the field apart and there is very little time to organize any type of chase. If the right rider at the right time attacks hard, that may end up being the move of the race.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Latest news reports Landis just crashed on a training run and is "bruised up pretty good". If it's at bad as it seems he may be out of contention even if he still shows up. Too bad, I was really looking forward to him slaughtering the field. Guess we'll have to wait till next year.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jOrpa6-Qymlp2BMFqKm3ViA_O1VgD96ACERG0


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## Alaska Mike (Sep 28, 2008)

bigmig19 said:


> Name one person in history who had replacement surgery that went on to perform in a sport as difficult as cycling.


Hermann Maier


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## jmlapoint (Sep 4, 2008)

I sure hope Lance has a Great Ride!


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## UK rider (Aug 19, 2004)

Don't mind who wins really. I think it'll be a good race though, in terms of it's position in the calendar it will be perfect to see who is performing well in preparation for the European Spring.
This year they are showing it in it's entirety, either live or recorded (mostly live I think – late night), on British Eurosport, which is a first. That, and the track World Cup, it's going to be a bit of a tv -cycle-fest next week!


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## Don Duende (Sep 13, 2007)

Revised list after Landis crash and Hamilton announcement:

1) Levi
2) Cancellara
3) Horner
4) Zirbel

Meanwhile Hamilton revealed that his mother is currently battling breast cancer, and that his focus has been elsewhere over the past few months.

“I’ve been back in Boston for most of the last five weeks,” he said. "And the weather out there hasn’t been so good for training, so I have spent three of the last five weeks on the indoor trainer. So I will take myself off of the list of favorites. But we have got some strong riders in guys like Oscar Sevilla, (Enrique) Gutierrez, Francisco Mancebo or Chris Baldwin who can fill that void. I w


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

RR needs a win, and hamilton needs to prove he can ride clean with eth big guns. i dont know what other races they have him slated to race, so this may be the big one for him. and he is in stars and stripes.

landis hasnt raced in a long time. i think he will have the same struggles tyler had last year. granted, tyler had not really been training when he threw a leg over the toptube, but i hear landis likes the lager and in and out burger.

there are many wildcards, like danielson (garmin doesnt wanna burn too many matches on better talent) and tyler farrar. there is kim kirchen, the schlecks, and horner.

my best guess (and its a guess):
1) levi (strongest team, and this is levis wining race for the year)
2) danny pate (not sure what his race sched is)
3) mick rogers

of course, you could have the former postal top 5:
1) levi
2) hincapie
3) hamilton
4) landis
5) zabriski

if this were zabriskis only race, i would pick him based on the TTs and the climbs. but i think they need him for europe too much.


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## ronbo613 (Jan 19, 2009)

Seems like a pretty good setup for Levi, I'd really like to see Hincapie win, or at least do well, I would really like to see George win Paris-Roubaix or one of the big classics. He's a tough rider and would be a respected champion in any race he wins.
Hamilton has a lot to prove, Landis is a question mark, especially after his recent training crash and Basso should be strong, also with something to prove. They will all be under tight media scrutiny with doping questions, so we'll see how that plays on these guys.

I'm just glad to see big time racing cranking up again.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

Landis' "crash" sounds suspiciously like one whose effects will last just long enough to miss the big pre-tour press conference and a grilling on his return.


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## UK rider (Aug 19, 2004)

Don Duende said:


> Revised list after Landis crash and Hamilton announcementQUOTE]
> 
> 
> what was the 'Hamilton announcement'?


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## Gnarly 928 (Nov 19, 2005)

Who'll win? 

I think it's really cool that Levi might get a little payback from LA, if indeed Lance does work to help Levi into a good GC finish. I mean, after all the work Levi's done for LA over the years it's perfect (if it really happens) to have some of that come back to him..That is like a Disney story line...

Ya think it may even happen?

Don Hanson


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## kmac (Feb 13, 2007)

I wonder how they all ride in the snow? There is currently snow over a whole bunch of the climbs. Forecast is for rain more on than off for the whole week. Pretty cold (for California) too. Hope those Euro racers weren't expecting too much fun in the California sun!


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## roadie92 (Jan 21, 2008)

1. Levi
2. Landis
3. A. Shelck
4. Hamilton
5. Cancellara


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

UK rider said:


> Don Duende said:
> 
> 
> > Revised list after Landis crash and Hamilton announcementQUOTE]
> ...


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## twain (May 18, 2004)

Weird post in Tyler's blog; doesn't mention his mother

_"FEBRUARY 16: I'm frustrated and disappointed to not be competing in the Tour of California. I had looked forward to riding alongside my Rock Racing teammates throughout the up coming week. 

While I won't be able to support them out on the road, I plan, along with Santiago Botero and Oscar Sevilla, to attend the race and provide as much encouragement as possible to our team's talented riders and staff.

I want to express special gratitude to Michael Ball for doing everything he could to try and resolve the situation that developed over the last week. The sport of cycling desperately needs sponsors and leaders who are willing to stand up and fight for the rights of the riders and demand consistency and fairness across the board. I admire his commitment to this sport as well as this team. It's an honor to wear the Rock Racing kit and I look forward to helping Michael achieve his goals for this year throughout the rest of the season."_

http://www.tylerhamilton.com/cms/tylers-blog


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## toronto-rider (Aug 16, 2002)

twain said:


> Weird post in Tyler's blog; doesn't mention his mother
> 
> _"FEBRUARY 16: I'm frustrated and disappointed to not be competing in the Tour of California. I had looked forward to riding alongside my Rock Racing teammates throughout the up coming week.
> 
> ...


That was from last year.


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## Miiles (Oct 25, 2008)

kmac said:


> I wonder how they all ride in the snow? There is currently snow over a whole bunch of the climbs. Forecast is for rain more on than off for the whole week. Pretty cold (for California) too. Hope those Euro racers weren't expecting too much fun in the California sun!


I drove up Sierra Road today, the major stage 2 climb, and all the snow was well above the road. Not even in the same mountains, I don't think we'll see any snow there.


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## Hollywood (Jan 16, 2003)

Miiles said:


> I drove up Sierra rode today, the major stage 2 climb, and all the snow was well above the road. Not even in the same mountains, I don't think we'll see any snow there.


still a fairly crappy & cold forecast for a place that doesn't usually see much rain  

I watched last year's final stage at the Rose Bowl in the pouring rain as well. Those guys did not look like it was a good day on a bike.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Final team rosters:

http://www.velonews.com/article/87172/tour-of-california-releases-final-rosters-for-the-race

Everybody's bringing the HEAT! 

I'm daydreaming about the ultimate long break containting Hincapie, Tuft, Rollin, Voigt, Sutherland, Menzies, O'Grady and Horner on the nastiest, longest day of the race.


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## teffisk (Mar 24, 2006)

I think Columbia is more in it for the win than people think. And I certainly thing Landis is ready. The Astana boys might be a little over confident and Levi might have a Georgia-type experience this year and let the win slip away from him. There is just too much fire power to make any valid predictions. Its early in the season but it seems like everyone is ready to race. Seems a countless number of articles reporting riders saying "I've never had this much form in February." I think Garmin, Columbia, and Liquigas and going to steal the show from Astana.


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## ultimobici (Jul 16, 2005)

Just saw the actual start times for the prologue.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2009/feb09/california09/?id=startlist_prologue

What's with the skewed order? Landis off second to last?


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## cclaeys (Aug 6, 2008)

mick rogers
Jeff Louder
Zabriskie

I am kind of a contrarian though

realistically:

leipheimer
Vande Velde 
schleck - pick one


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

Landis is the last winner before Levi, hence the start order...


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

how about Zirbel to win the prologue?


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