# Will Wiggo Crack?



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

I wanted to repost my thoughts from another thread where it is buried in other discussions. The question: Is tour essentially over for GC? Seems like Wiggins has it wrapped up.

I will go against the conventional wisdom a little, and suggest that as dominant as Wiggo was in the first week of racing, it doesn't mean he won't crack later. 

Historic Evidence: 
After all, in 2011 Vuelta he seemed safe to win the overall until he cracked in stage 15 (and he also lost a little bit to Cobo in Stage 14). He lost 1:40 on Angrilu and then another 40s on Pena Cabarga (the most exciting mountaintop finish I have ever seen in my life!). He had 1:40 over Cobo before stage 14 and ended up reversing it to 1:40 deficit to Cobo by stage 17. So people who don't think Wiggins can lose 3 minutes over a few mountain stages should look at history. (True, Wiggins may have not fully recovered from his Tour crash, but he was still much stronger in the first two weeks and not as strong in the final week. One could also argue the field wasn't as strong in Vuelta as it is in this Tour).

And in 2010 Giro before stage 14 Wiggins was actually 3 minutes ahead of Nibali, Basso and Evans on GC. And what happened then? Wiggo lost 25 minutes on stage 15 (Zoncolan). 

In 2009 Tour Wiggo lost more than in a minute to Contador in stage 15, more than 3 minutes to Contador and Schlecks on Treks in stage 17 and then another 43 seconds in time trial in stage 18. 

So he does have a bit of a history of starting super-strong and then suffering meltdown in the final week in the mountains. So even if he is leading by 5 minutes into the third week, I would keep on watching. Interesting stuff may happen.

I know what people will say - this is a different Wiggins, lighter, more powerful, healthy and with support of super-team on his side. I am impressed with him too. 2012 may be very different from 2009, 2010 or 2011. All I am saying, he has not been the strongest finisher and tends to lose tons of time in the last week. It could be experience or it could be physiological, but that's what happened before and maybe it will happen again this year - the team cannot really help once you totally bonk on the mountain.


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

Wiggo has historically cracked on the extreme very steep climbs. 

On the "normal" mountain stages he seems to be able to hang with the lead group.

I think that barring a crash he can reach Paris in yellow.

Obviously the whole field must wait for him if he crashes in yellow, right ?


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

That is the big question, and one Cadel plans to ask him repeatedly over the next 10 days. Possibly as early as tomorrow.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Fireform said:


> That is the big question, and one Cadel plans to ask him repeatedly over the next 10 days. Possibly as early as tomorrow.


I think instead of repeatedly asking Wiggo questions (as annoying as it gets), Cadel should attack instead!


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## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

It's certainly going to be good watching. Interesting that Sean Kelly publicly referred that Wiggins has "always been fragile". If news like this keeps coming out Wiggins might just explode.
Kelly: Wiggins Is Mentally Fragile | Cyclingnews.com


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Cadel commented on the fact that Wiggins team fell apart with the slightest pressure on the last climb Sunday. Froome being the exception of course.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

55x11 said:


> I think instead of repeatedly asking Wiggo questions (as annoying as it gets), Cadel should attack instead!


The attack is the Question.


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## MikeBiker (Mar 9, 2003)

He'll crack like a Walnetto.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

I just can't see Wiggins failing. Although I have no great liking for him, there is no denying that he is a fantastic rider who has made the transition from being a 3 Olympic Gold Medal winning Jack The Lad to Stage Race Monster brilliantly. He has a huge talent and this is his year I reckon.

In the long run, Froome looks to be Sky's world beater for several years to come.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

That is clearly cadels only chance at this point vs wiggins.

The other problem is, he has to take 4 or so minutes out of wiggins and 2 or so out of Fromme to win. 

It's wiggins to lose, followed by Fromme,.....Evans has to perform.

Len


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## troutmd (Sep 7, 2007)

Factor to consider:

*** Its tough being the favorite

*** Its a long time for the team to defend the Yellow Jersey.

*** The seemingly endless pressure of "Which attack to counter-attack"?

*** Man who sit on the White Charger focus of intense media scrutiny ... handlers worried which is discerned by the one being handled, which then transforms into (fill in the blank).

*** The enemy of my enemy is my friend: Tour could see some unholy alliances with (for example) Liquidgas {Szmyd - Basso - Nibali) burning Wiggo's candle on one mountain stage, followed by Shack (Pop followed by Voight followed by Horner, followed by Kloden followed by Zubeldia finished by Schleck) attacking the next, for BMC's 3rd day bonfire. 

*** SKY strategy --- everyone know about the long time trial and has handicapped the time lost/gained.

Wiggo's to lose. If he wins, given these and other factors, he deserves to be the champion.


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

Wiggo can crack and still win with this year's route. He'll probably gain another minute or two in the next 53km ITT, and the mountain stages just aren't nasty enough to create the time splits that would defeat him. Even the "ring of fire" stage in the Pyranees ends in a downhill finish, and with his team support, Wiggo can survive a couple less-than-stellar days. I think hs biggest threat could be Froome, but of course Sky won't let that happen.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Fireform said:


> The attack is the Question.


I know, I know, just having fun. Let's hope Cadel just keeps asking. He has developed his ability to attack lately.


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## Mapei (Feb 3, 2004)

I think Wiggo will crack _after_ he wins the TdF, and probably after the Olympics, as well. He's been holding himself in complete, utter check this past year or so. His blow-up at the innuendo involving his team's possible less-than-ethical activity, and the way he pushed away the cameraman in the aftermath of his victory in the time trial, shows how close to the breaking point he is. Nevertheless, he knows exactly how much longer he must keep his focus. He knows he's the strongest of the bunch, overall. He can check off the days on his calendar, like the proverbial inmate waiting for his sentence to end. Then, bang!


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

I'll lighten some of my verging-on-harsh statements about Wiggo by saying that his observations about Cadel were uncommonly respectful in the interview he did for NBC, and that no one who has won three Olympic gold medals and pushed himself beyond his limits to prepare for this race the way Wiggo has can be said to lack the heart of a champion. Whether he has the legs of a TdF champion remains to be seen, but that will be proven out in time. If he prevails, I hope he gets credit for being as worthy as any.

I'm just hoping for a thrilling race the rest of the way and not a tactical snoozer. I think that's what we're about to get.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Fireform said:


> I'll lighten some of my verging-on-harsh statements about Wiggo by saying that his observations about Cadel were uncommonly respectful in the interview he did for NBC, and that no one who has won three Olympic gold medals and pushed himself beyond his limits to prepare for this race the way Wiggo has can be said to lack the heart of a champion. Whether he has the legs of a TdF champion remains to be seen, but that will be proven out in time. If he prevails, I hope he gets credit for being as worthy as any.
> 
> I'm just hoping for a thrilling race the rest of the way and not a tactical snoozer. I think that's what we're about to get.


Amen to that. For the record, I don't think anyone lacks the heart of the champion. Ok, maybe Andy Schleck comes to mind. He has stomach of anger but not the heart of the champion. At least not lately.


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## flyrunride (May 2, 2012)

To Attack And When to Attack... that is the question! We'll find out soon enough if his form holds. It would be great if Cadel + Nibali + Schleck attacks during the mountain stages. It's been an exciting tour except for those nasty crashes :mad2: I'm crossing my fingers that it doesn't turn into a tactical boring one where they just try to get into the podium/top 10 for recognition and placing


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## InfiniteLoop (Mar 20, 2010)

Wiggo did a lot of training at altitude over the winter along with a lot of upper body stuff so he is, theoretically anyway, in significantly better condition this year than during last years Vuelta or previous years anything. We'll see


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

flyrunride said:


> To Attack And When to Attack... that is the question! We'll find out soon enough if his form holds. It would be great if Cadel + Nibali + Schleck attacks during the mountain stages. It's been an exciting tour except for those nasty crashes :mad2: I'm crossing my fingers that it doesn't turn into a tactical boring one where they just try to get into the podium/top 10 for recognition and placing


I hope Nibbles and Evans attack tomorrow. If they get any time they can extend it on descent!


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

I bet Wiggo will just sit behind his donestiques, and let them do their job. He will defend his yellow until the end, no matter what.

In my opinion Wiggo won't attack unless Cadel does.


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## WAZCO (Sep 16, 2004)

velojon said:


> Wiggo can crack and still win with this year's route. He'll probably gain another minute or two in the next 53km ITT, and the mountain stages just aren't nasty enough to create the time splits that would defeat him.


If he cracks, he'll have a hard time recovering for the long TT. The key is make him crack on stage 17. Then put a blister high speed on stage 18 the day before ITT. This will make it hard for him to recoup for stage 19. That's alot to ask for I know but strategically that should do the damage. However, considering Brads history, if Sky wants the yellow they should allow Froome to roam freely in case Wigo can't hang in.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

Cadel has no choice but to attack and keep attacking. If he can get help from Nibali and Teejay so much the better. He's not fool enough to let Wiggo run out the clock. He may wait a while until he thinks Wiggo is tired, but then he may not. I don't think Cadel is afraid of him in the mountains. The attacks will come.


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## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

I don't think Cadel has anything to lose. He has a TdF already in his back pocket so he may as well attack and risk losing then just sit on wiggins hoping he cracks.


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## ti-triodes (Aug 14, 2006)

dougydee said:


> I don't think Cadel has anything to lose. He has a TdF already in his back pocket so he may as well attack and risk losing then just sit on wiggins hoping he cracks.



That's the thing. You know Cadel has been grinding it out year after year until he finially got the recipe right last year. Wiggo is still pretty much untested and has problems in the past in the high mountains.


However, I have a feeling this is Wiggo's year.


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## Guest (Jul 11, 2012)

55x11 said:


> I think instead of repeatedly asking Wiggo questions (as annoying as it gets), Cadel should attack instead!


I disagree. IMO Cadel should instead "send a message" to Wiggo on the upcoming mountain stages. Shouldn't be too hard for Cadel to arrange something like that as I hear they have good deals on unlimited texting plans in Europe...


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## AlphaDogCycling (Sep 18, 2011)

I think saying that Wiggo "cracked" is not accurate. A better statement would be that he was "cracked". The question is: after the drubbing in the ITT, is anyone else willing to to throw caution to the wind and try and crack Wiggo. Or better, are someones willing to go for the win, and potentially give up their podium chance?

My guess is that we are going to see what happened in the Armstrong era: people start riding to protect their podium spot and not for the win. So unless Wiggo does something dumb - doesn't eat / drink enough - or has a stupid crash, Sky is too strong for anyone one person to crack Wiggo.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

It would be pretty amazing to see Wiggins hold the jersey all the way to Paris. 

IMHO, riders arent going to start riding for holding a step under Wiggins. It is too early.

Personally, I would let the jersey go (yes, yes..i know that is a lot of time to give up). I feel there will be a real clamor for yellow, beginning stage 10. The rest of the field knows there are only 2 men on SKY to beat.
The last ITT does favor Wiggins, now or two days ago. It does not favor a Wiggins who spends basically the entire mountains in defensive posture.


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## Mike T. (Feb 3, 2004)

If I was Wiggo I'd let Cuddles go up the road on a solo attack just enough to lose the jersey by 15 seconds. Then I'd sit back for the next week and a half looking at Nibblets and Menchov going "What you gonna do about that?" knowing full well that I could get that 15 seconds back in the final TT in a heartbeat. Then the pressure is off Wiggo & Sky and on Cuddles to stop the other two going up the road.

But, Wiggo, Brailsford and Yates are too proud to lose the yellow jersey for a while. That might be their undoing if they're not careful.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

I think Wiggo can still win even if he "cracks". But if he does crack so badly, I think it will be more interesting see what they do with Froome. He can win the overall if Wiggo cracks and they turn him loose. That would actually be way more interesting than seeing Cadel or Nibs overtake Wiggo.


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## rgg01 (Jun 21, 2011)

The stage before the ITT is a flat, group sprint, Cav has said now he's staying till Paris, if this is the case it'll make sense for Sky to have the whole group at the front, no-one will be tiring Brad out that day. I'm not sure I've seen that Cadel has that much on Brad, he's tough and Sky obviously respect him, but I don't think he can take the 3-4 minutes he'll need to have a chance, and Nibali, who is a better climber than either of them is just too far back. IMHO it's not over, but unless something dramatic happens Brad should win.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

rgg01 said:


> The stage before the ITT is a flat, group sprint, Cav has said now he's staying till Paris, if this is the case it'll make sense for Sky to have the whole group at the front, no-one will be tiring Brad out that day. I'm not sure I've seen that Cadel has that much on Brad, he's tough and Sky obviously respect him, but I don't think he can take the 3-4 minutes he'll need to have a chance, and Nibali, who is a better climber than either of them is just too far back. IMHO it's not over, but unless something dramatic happens Brad should win.


I agree with this. Cadel really needs two great days and Wiggo to have two bad days in order to get his time back and build up enough of a lead.


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

DZfan14 said:


> I think Wiggo can still win even if he "cracks". But if he does crack so badly, I think it will be more interesting see what they do with Froome. He can win the overall if Wiggo cracks and they turn him loose. That would actually be way more interesting than seeing Cadel or Nibs overtake Wiggo.


Team Sky said in an interview that Froome is the "Plan B" if something happens to Wiggo along the race, but they still insist that they won't give too much attention to Froome as they aim their support for Wiggo. They want Wiggo to win.


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

Yep. As I said over in the forum that shall not be named, the fact that Wiggins doesn't have a ready answer for doping questions suggests a lack of preparedness on his part.

If I were Cadel, I might call some Aussie journalists to keep digging at him...


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## Allthatflash (Jun 7, 2012)

I really don't understand this if you have your guys pushing till they run out of gaas but yet your following him at the same speed how do you the one following up th at hill at full speed don't crack before the guys in front of you do? And esp after atacks after attacks? but yet the guy in Yellow is still right behind his guys? Cadel tioday should have taken off with Tom Voigler cuz no one caught them at the end.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

Allthatflash said:


> I really don't understand this if you have your guys pushing till they run out of gaas but yet your following him at the same speed how do you the one following up th at hill at full speed don't crack before the guys in front of you do? And esp after atacks after attacks? but yet the guy in Yellow is still right behind his guys? Cadel tioday should have taken off with Tom Voigler cuz no one caught them at the end.


These are pros. They ride fast enough uphill, even very steep hills, that there is still an advantage to drafting those in front of you. There is also a mental part to that even when the drafting effect is minimal. You will see that the longer, steeper climbs leave only the best few guys while everyone else gets dropped off the back. These best few are invariably the GC threats, often with a couple other guys that are good climbers, guys having one good day who can't do it as consistently, but not real threats for the GC. 

Until all the domestiques are gone it is their job to set the pace that their leader desires.

Evans couldn't have taken off with Voeckler. None of the other GC contenders, particularly Wiggins and Sky, would have let him. All it would do was spoil Voeckler's break. They let Voeckler and the other riders get away because none of them are threats to win it all. That's why you only see riders that are down on GC by many minutes in the long breaks.


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## mrcreosote (Sep 9, 2010)

Fireform said:


> That is the big question, and one Cadel plans to ask him repeatedly over the next 10 days. Possibly as early as tomorrow.


Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?














Are we there yet?


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

mrcreosote said:


> Are we there yet?


today

.. or its gone


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## AlphaDogCycling (Sep 18, 2011)

If he could, Cadel should have gone with Nibali today. The two of them plus Sagan and Burghardt (sp?) working together could have stayed away. Only 2 mountain stages left, and Cadel needs to take about 4+ minutes out of Wiggins prior to the last ITT to have a shot at winning. 

Not going to happen. Tour over, barring a crash.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

AlphaDogCycling said:


> If he could, Cadel should have gone with Nibali today. The two of them plus Sagan and Burghardt (sp?) working together could have stayed away. Only 2 mountain stages left, and Cadel needs to take about 4+ minutes out of Wiggins prior to the last ITT to have a shot at winning.
> 
> Not going to happen. Tour over, barring a crash.


There's 4 mountain stages left. But none of them are super hard.


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## AlphaDogCycling (Sep 18, 2011)

@foto - I should have been more precise: only two mountain top finishes left.


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## yongkun (Aug 9, 2010)

The breakaway would have cursed and swear at cadel if he were to join them in their escapade. It would definitely be doom for them. Sky turn off the engine to rest those legs once they saw the breakaway are of no threat to GC. You can't just chase every break, only those that matters.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

Banking on the strongest man on the competition to crack up is planning for failure. I don't think any sane DS would lead you to that.

IMHO, Cadel's only option is to team up with Nibali and attack, then deal with Nibali. Actually, it's their only shot at it as together they could crack up Wiggins and Froome.

Neither Nibali or Cadel had done as good as Wiggins/Froome on the ITT, so they rather do it in the mountains. The catch there is that if they burn themselves on the mountains, they will lose more time in the ITT.

I think Wiggins has it in the bag.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

Can Wiggo Crack? Does he have yellow in a choke hold?
He, Forte and Froome did not even look like they were breaking a sweat yesterday.
But... if the others can't hurt SKY in Stage 11, I doubt he will crack after that.

I am surprised at how weak BMC and Liquigas have looked in the mountains compared to SKY. What was BMC's strategy for Cadel repeating? "Hear, take this American kid and see what he can do. If he cracks start handing out cash for help in the mountains"

It also 'appears' that RSNT is getting their legs under them. They 'appear' to be the only team that can throw 3 or 4 guys at SKY, but what would be the point? Unless they do something really big soon they do not even have a shot at a podium spot.
They wouldn't just have to crack SKY, they almost need to blow up the whole peleton to place somebody. Even if Candy Andy was here I do not think he would be on the podium because he would need 3 or 4 minutes going into the last ITT.


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## nOOky (Mar 20, 2009)

I think it's in the bag for him. This year's tour route favors a certain type of rider, and it ain't favorable to a strong man in the mountains. Last years tour was monstrously mountainous compared to this year. At least if my memory serves me correctly, I was too bust caught up in the Voekler excitement like most everybody else


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## Max09 (May 3, 2011)

nOOky said:


> I think it's in the bag for him. This year's tour route favors a certain type of rider, and it ain't favorable to a strong man in the mountains. Last years tour was monstrously mountainous compared to this year. At least if my memory serves me correctly, I was too bust caught up in the Voekler excitement like most everybody else


He is definitely on good form I don't know that he has the race in the bag just yet, there is alot of racing ahead. One mishaps or lack of recovery he could lose some time, one thing is for sure it's going to be fun to watch...


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## flyrunride (May 2, 2012)

Wiggo's team is cracking everyone else. With Froome around I don't think Nibali can gain much from Wiggo and Evans cracked already.... Oh well, still ways to go but looking like it will be a win for Sky. Can't believe no team could match them right now, I would've thought some of the sky guys should have burned up by now leading the peloton.


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## Rokh On (Oct 30, 2011)

Wiggins ... not my guy and not my team. Oh well. I don't find this years tour particularly exciting at all. I absolutely hated the crashes. I do agree that at this point, it's Wiggins to loose and I think he probably can ride the yellow all the way to Paris. How can he not? All he has to do is continue hanging close to BMC. I've also learned I have become not so much of a fan of "wheelsucker" but that is for another thread.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

The only way to enjoy this Tour now is to follow the battles, not the war. I mean, stages as single races can be enjoyable and attacks for their own immediate merits... But the GC win is pretty much over unless Wiggins or Froome get sick, crash or something along those lines. I don't see how anyone can pull the many minutes needed before the last TT to win.


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## joep721 (May 4, 2009)

Dan Gerous said:


> The only way to enjoy this Tour now is to follow the battles, not the war. I mean, stages as single races can be enjoyable and attacks for their own immediate merits... But the GC win is pretty much over unless Wiggins or Froome get sick, crash or something along those lines. I don't see how anyone can pull the many minutes needed before the last TT to win.



Exactly! The Yellow Jersey will be worn by Wiggons the rest of the tour. Sky has too many strong riders . Like you said, short of something unexcepted the GC has been decided.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

joep721 said:


> Exactly! The Yellow Jersey will be worn by Wiggons the rest of the tour. Sky has too many strong riders . Like you said, short of something unexcepted the GC has been decided.


I still hope to see the others keep fighting. Nibali, Van Den Broeck seem to do so... and even if he lost some time and that he realistically can't win, Cadel will probably fight until the end.


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## joep721 (May 4, 2009)

Dan Gerous said:


> I still hope to see the others keep fighting. Nibali, Van Den Broeck seem to do so... and even if he lost some time and that he realistically can't win, Cadel will probably fight until the end.


Dan,

Agreed, but everytime (and I haven't watched today's stage yet) someone tries to attack, someone from Sky ups the tempo and pulls them back into the fold. I don't think there is a rider out there in GC contention that can do a serious attack (like AS did last year on stage 18) to cause panic with the Sky team. And with the time gaps, I don't think anyone can really hurt Wiggins - because of the TT. Once I saw this year's route I had a sick feeling that this year's tour would be won by a TT specialist with a strong team to support him in the mountains. I'm not a fan of this year's route - it's an Olympic friendly route.

As you said, the fun now will be watching the stage battles and the other jersey battles (Goss vs Sagan). I'm not a Sky fan but I think the fat lady may have already sung.


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

Agree that GC is probably done, but I disagree with the idea that Wiggins will necessarily take another 2 minutes in the final ITT. After 3 tough weeks, he may not seem quite so perky, while some others could actually be gaining form after slow starts. Unlikely, I know, but I'm grasping for any scenario that might be a little more exciting. Having Wiggins just chugging along now is like watching paint dry.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

anything can happen in a time trial.

just ask riis.


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## Mud (Feb 5, 2002)

I don't think Cadel can get the time he needs in the big mountains, because he always appears to be riding solo. As long as I can remember watching Cadel in the pro peloton, he always seems to be the only guy from his team in the break/lead/etc. To me, his teams have always been conspicuous by their absence. I just don't see how the pack of Sky riders will let him get away, with no organized assault on them at any point.


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## joep721 (May 4, 2009)

velojon said:


> Agree that GC is probably done, but I disagree with the idea that Wiggins will necessarily take another 2 minutes in the final ITT. After 3 tough weeks, he may not seem quite so perky, while some others could actually be gaining form after slow starts. Unlikely, I know, but I'm grasping for any scenario that might be a little more exciting. Having Wiggins just chugging along now is like watching paint dry.


Velojon, I hope you didn't think I was suggesting that. I'm just saying - Wiggins has been on fire this year and if someone was to close the gap to him, say Cadel attacks and gets up by a few seconds leading into the TT, then Wiggins will take the yellow jersey back on that stage. He won't have to do too much to take back the yellow.


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## jsedlak (Jun 17, 2008)

Mud said:


> I don't think Cadel can get the time he needs in the big mountains, because he always appears to be riding solo. As long as I can remember watching Cadel in the pro peloton, he always seems to be the only guy from his team in the break/lead/etc. To me, his teams have always been conspicuous by their absence. I just don't see how the pack of Sky riders will let him get away, with no organized assault on them at any point.


TJ was there with him today. He seems to be getting better and better too. :thumbsup:


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

Well as of post stage 11, Cadel has cracked up, losing time to Wiggo and might lost a Podium spot. 

Too bad.

Chris Froome was awesome back there.


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