# Floyd Landis is a bad mamma jamma. TDG



## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

*Results for today's Time Trial
*


*Provisional*
1 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak 54.14.49
2 Tom Danielson (USA) Discovery 0.03.75
3 Dave Zabriskie (USA) CSC 0.23.91
4 Nathan O'Neill (Aus) Health Net 0.55.00
5 José Enrique Gutierrez Cataluna (Spa) Phonak 1.22.65
6 Jason McCartney (USA) Discovery 1.37.74
7 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery 1.52.84
8 Marco Pinotti (Ita) Prodir 1.55.51

Instantly, this is a two-horse race that will be decided on the big mountain.

Can Zabriskie climb? If he can hang at Brasstown Bald, he'll have a good July.

Brasstown Bald?









francois


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## mrt10x (Aug 10, 2005)

I guess Tommy D has been working on his TT a bit? 20 seconds from Dave Z


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

mrt10x said:


> I guess Tommy D has been working on his TT a bit? 20 seconds from Dave Z


Tommy D done reeeeaaaal good. He might have just taken over TDF leadership from Popovych. Get well soon Hincapie.

francois


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## grampy bone (Feb 9, 2005)

If I remember right, Tommy D is also an amazing climber. Me thinks Landis will have his hands full.


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## 21switchbacks (Aug 6, 2004)

francois said:


> Can Zabriskie climb? If he can hang at Brasstown Bald, he'll have a good July.


I was a little suprised at how well he did in the Friday and Saturday stages last year. He finished with leaders on the Friday stage and on Saturday he stayed with the leaders until the bottom of Brasstown where he ended up losing about 3 minutes - not too bad. That Brasstown Bald is an absolute wall, but Hogpen Gap is no piece of cake either. This year, they are doing it "backwards" where it's shorter but steeper. Descending the side that they are climbing just about gives me a heart attack.

Now that Grajales is back in the race this year, I'm interested to see if he can do something on Saturday.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

francois said:


> *Results for today's Time Trial
> *
> 
> 
> ...



Do you still think Zabriskie will outdo Basso in all 3 ITTs at the TDF?


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

Floyd had to get all the time he could today. He's a climbers for sure, but now Disco can use tactics Quick-Step traditionally employ in the classics. They have three riders, three cards to play, three climbing cards to play. Landis can be isolated and attacked. If climbers from other teams who aren't a threat make their move and any of the three Discos can follow, Landis must show tactical sense and hold his lead. If he does, he's looking better and better for the Tour.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

francois said:


> Tommy D done reeeeaaaal good. He might have just taken over TDF leadership from Popovych. Get well soon Hincapie.
> 
> francois



There's no way in hell Tom D is going to be the Disco leader for the TDF even considering how unimpressive Popo is.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

rocco said:


> Do you still think Zabriskie will outdo Basso in all 3 ITTs at the TDF?


Yes I do. Well, maybe 2 out of 3. He's not looking so hot. Maybe he's peaking for July. Maybe not.

What about you? Do you think Basso will outdo Zabriskie in all 3?

francois


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

hate to break it to you guys, but all the hype about, let's admit it to ourselves - a relatively low key April race, and it's meaning in relationship to a big race in July, is just that - hype. Popovych was third at Giro at age 23 and 12th in last year's Tour while working for Lance. 
Danielson is two years older than Popo, but his best result is 8th at Vuelta last year, at age 27. 

Who would you bet on for the future of the team?

Landis was very impressive in Paris-Nice and he may be able to take TdG, but something tells me Popo will be ahead of Landis (and Danielson) at TdF. Zabriskie will beat Landis at both time trials.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

francois said:


> Yes I do. Well, maybe 2 out of 3. He's not looking so hot. Maybe he's peaking for July. Maybe not.
> 
> What about you? Do you think Basso will outdo Zabriskie in all 3?
> 
> francois



Let's put it this way, Zabriske will not beat Basso in all 3. For all we know even the inconsistent Botero could beat Zabriske in all 3. Winning one 19 km ITT in TDF doesn't really secured the preeminent status that so many seem to be giving him. He may further prove himself in the ITT this year but on the other hand I wouldn't so surprised if he never won another TDF ITT ever again. I wonder how many years have you been seriously following the TDF?


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

rocco said:


> Let's put it this way, Zabriske will not beat Basso in all 3. For all we know even the inconsistent Botero could beat Zabriske in all 3. Winning one 19 km ITT in TDF doesn't really secured the preeminent status that so many seem to be giving him. He may further prove himself in the ITT this year but on the other hand I wouldn't so surprised if he never won another TDF ITT ever again. I wonder how many years have you been seriously following the TDF?


I think Dave has to find a way to become more mentally solid if he's going to even finish the Tour.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Jesse D Smith said:


> Floyd had to get all the time he could today. He's a climbers for sure, but now Disco can use tactics Quick-Step traditionally employ in the classics. They have three riders, three cards to play, three climbing cards to play. Landis can be isolated and attacked. If climbers from other teams who aren't a threat make their move and any of the three Discos can follow, Landis must show tactical sense and hold his lead. If he does, he's looking better and better for the Tour.



I don't think multi-threat tactics translate as well to stage races as they do in single day races.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

MaRider said:


> hate to break it to you guys, but all the hype about, let's admit it to ourselves - a relatively low key April race, and it's meaning in relationship to a big race in July, is just that - hype. Popovych was third at Giro at age 23 and 12th in last year's Tour while working for Lance.
> Danielson is two years older than Popo, but his best result is 8th at Vuelta last year, at age 27.
> 
> Who would you bet on for the future of the team?
> ...



Yes it's very early however, Danielson will not even be on the TDF team, Popo won't beat Landis and neither will Zabriskie. There's too much hay being made over Popo and Zabriskie. ...Hell, the same probably goes for Landis. We'll see.


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## 21switchbacks (Aug 6, 2004)

rocco said:


> Let's put it this way, Zabriske will not beat Basso in all 3. For all we know even the inconsistent Botero could beat Zabriske in all 3. Winning one 19 km ITT in TDF doesn't really secured the preeminent status that so many seem to be giving him. He may further prove himself in the ITT this year but on the other hand I wouldn't so surprised if he never won another TDF ITT ever again. I wonder how many years have you been seriously following the TDF?


Zabriskie has done more than that one TT. He had a 1st (in front of Basso) and a 3rd in last years Giro, plus a US TT championship. That stage that he won solo in the '04 Vuelta was epic.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Jesse D Smith said:


> I think Dave has to find a way to become more mentally solid if he's going to even finish the Tour.



I agree... People are making way too big of deal about him.


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## R.Rice (Aug 23, 2004)

Going into this race I wanted to see Landis win it(still do).He just seems like a cool guy.

However,I am more impressed by Tom D's perfomance today.I was expecting Floyd to crush him.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

21switchbacks said:


> Zabriskie has done more than that one TT. He had a 1st (in front of Basso) and a 3rd in last years Giro, plus a US TT championship. That stage that he won solo in the '04 Vuelta was epic.



3rd in last years Giro? DZ was 17 seconds ahead of IB in the Firenze ITT and IB was 20 seconds ahead of DZ in the Torino ITT. US TT championship?... you seriously think that's much of a reason? He's still far from preeminent status in TDF ITTs.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

*context*



R.Rice said:


> Going into this race I wanted to see Landis win it(still do).He just seems like a cool guy.
> 
> However,I am more impressed by Tom D's perfomance today.I was expecting Floyd to crush him.



Yes he did a great job today to finish 2nd but then again this is really his big race of the year.
I see Floyd as consistently strong this spring while Tom D is reaching for the defence of his title. Zabriske, Popo and etc. are still early in their TDF building programs.


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## R.Rice (Aug 23, 2004)

rocco said:


> Yes he did a great job today to finish 2nd but then again this is really his big race of the year.
> I see Floyd as consistently strong this spring while Tom D is reaching for the defence of his title. Zabriske, Popo and etc. are still early in their TDF building programs.


I agree.I was still hoping to see a whoopin'.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

R.Rice said:


> I agree.I was still hoping to see a whoopin'.



We still might.


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## Mosovich (Feb 3, 2004)

*I had breakfast with Landis on Monday...*

and he said this race is and objective for sure. It was interesting the a reporter from his home town asked him he considered himself a tour contender. He said without a doubt yes, but it took alot of pulling to get him to say that. He's a very modest guy. It was really cool, it was me and six reporters, and I was really the only person asking cycling questions. Robbie Hunter was at the table as well as the director sportif and they said they are definately going for victory here. Very cool and personal event.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

rocco said:


> Let's put it this way, Zabriske will not beat Basso in all 3. For all we know even the inconsistent Botero could beat Zabriske in all 3. Winning one 19 km ITT in TDF doesn't really secured the preeminent status that so many seem to be giving him. He may further prove himself in the ITT this year but on the other hand I wouldn't so surprised if he never won another TDF ITT ever again. I wonder how many years have you been seriously following the TDF?


13 years following the TDF bro.

Hey, I'm just putting my butt on the line with my wild Zabriskie prediction. I know it is the unconventional opinion frought with risk. My real doubt is whether Dave Z will finish the tour.

I'll bet you Zabriskie will beat Basso's time in more of the 3 ITTs. Bet you one bike jersey, winners choice. C'mon, friendly wager!

francois


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## Asiago (Jan 28, 2004)

*not quite*



rocco said:


> Yes he did a great job today to finish 2nd but then again this is really his big race of the year.
> I see Floyd as consistently strong this spring while Tom D is reaching for the defence of his title. Zabriske, Popo and etc. are still early in their TDF building programs.


No doubt he's trying to defend his title at the TdG, but this is for sure NOT his #1 objective of the year, that's in May at the Giro.

Discovery at the Giro. Gonna be interesting with Tom and Paolo. Il Falco is the leader, but the course doesn't suit him and I'm betting Tom gets to ride his own race.


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## FatTireFred (Jan 31, 2005)

grampy bone said:


> If I remember right, Tommy D is also an amazing climber. Me thinks Landis will have his hands full.



uh didn't Tommy D set the record up Mt Washington?


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## bas (Jul 30, 2004)

mrt10x said:


> I guess Tommy D has been working on his TT a bit? 20 seconds from Dave Z


The TT had climbs in it. Zabriske doesn't climb.


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## 24Hours (Apr 26, 2005)

*Don't count Tommy D out by any means...*



FatTireFred said:


> uh didn't Tommy D set the record up Mt Washington?


You are correct... taking it from none other than Tyler Hemo-tin, right?

But what impresses me more is that he set the record one of my hometown favorites: The Bob Cook (Mt. Evans) Hill Climb. That ride takes 28 miles and accends 7,000ft. 

Other notable past winners/ course record holders: Vaughters, Grewal, Engleman.

Tommy D is for real, he just needs to put it all together.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

rocco said:


> Yes it's very early however, Danielson will not even be on the TDF team, Popo won't beat Landis and neither will Zabriskie. There's too much hay being made over Popo and Zabriskie. ...Hell, the same probably goes for Landis. We'll see.


I agree about Zabriskie. He is pretty good in ITT, but there are others that are just as good and who are also much better climbers. 

Landis is not overrated, but it makes me wonder if he is peaking way too early. It's not really possible to stay in top shape from Paris-Nice through TdG all the way to July.

Popo is not overrated either - I don't hear a lot about him at all. But I think it's really too early to judge his shape - Bruneel knows what he is doing and I am sure Popo will be in tip-top shape by July and may surprise us all. 

Remember all the talk about Landis after last year's TdF? How he will be on the podium in Paris and will show Lance who is "da man" etc? Landis was the top Phonak rider (sharing leadership with Pereiro and finished 9th overall. Popo finished 12th, while having done a lions share of work for Lance. Discovery is still very strong - perhaps not as strong as CSC, but much better than Phonak this year. Not having to defend LA's yellow will put some pressure on Ullrich and Basso's teams.

Also, Landis is turning 31 this year, while Popo is 26. I would predict a high finish for Popo, perhaps even top 3, while Landis will be rounding off the top 10 again.

So if anything, I think Popo is somewhat underrated, actually.


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## adaml (Oct 31, 2003)

bas said:


> The TT had climbs in it. Zabriske doesn't climb.


Exactly, then was not the typical ITT course. It had a good bit of climbing and technical descents. That is why Tom did so well and DaveZ didn't do as well. (still a very good time)


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

MaRider said:


> I agree about Zabriskie. He is pretty good in ITT, but there are others that are just as good and who are also much better climbers.


Yeah he can ITT pretty good but he's not as good as some here have indicated. For instance, francois thinks he is going to beat Basso in all 3 ITTs at TDF this year. If Zabriskie was that good he'd have a shot at winning and we pretty much know that ain't going to happen. Not going to happen. He can take that one to the bank.



MaRider said:


> Landis is not overrated, but it makes me wonder if he is peaking way too early. It's not really possible to stay in top shape from Paris-Nice through TdG all the way to July.


Those who give Landis better than a 1 in 20 chance of winning the TDF ever are overrating him. Those who think he has a good chance to getting on the podium in Paris this year are not overrating him.



MaRider said:


> Popo is not overrated either - I don't hear a lot about him at all. But I think it's really too early to judge his shape - Bruneel knows what he is doing and I am sure Popo will be in tip-top shape by July and may surprise us all.


When I say Popo is overrated I'm not referring to him in the moment. Popo is overrated as a TDF contender this year. He's never won an ITT in a grand tour. Lot's of top 10s but no wins. The winner of this years TDF will have win at least 2 out of the 3 ITTs. I seriously doubt he can make the podium this year and he certainly will not win. If he gets in the top 6 position this year then I'd say his future stock is going way up.



MaRider said:


> Remember all the talk about Landis after last year's TdF? How he will be on the podium in Paris and will show Lance who is "da man" etc? Landis was the top Phonak rider (sharing leadership with Pereiro and finished 9th overall. Popo finished 12th, while having done a lions share of work for Lance. Discovery is still very strong - perhaps not as strong as CSC, but much better than Phonak this year. Not having to defend LA's yellow will put some pressure on Ullrich and Basso's teams.


All true but not that simple either. Landis won't be sharing leadership this year and I'd bet he's also better prepared physically and mentally. His TTing is getting better and better. 3 longer ITTs this year will also tip things more in his favor. All the talk about Landis was focused on the wrong year. I've got a feeling this is the year he will do the best TDF of his life which will earn him 2nd or 3rd.



MaRider said:


> Also, Landis is turning 31 this year, while Popo is 26. I would predict a high finish for Popo, perhaps even top 3, while Landis will be rounding off the top 10 again.


True about shelf life but I'd bet the opposite regarding their GC positions. Then again there are so many chances, risks, variables and etc. so who knows?



MaRider said:


> So if anything, I think Popo is somewhat underrated, actually.


We'll see. Only the road knows.


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## howardpowered (Jun 27, 2004)

*Danielson and Landis will smash . . .*

the field in stage 5 of TdG. This is just a prediction of course. We'll see who takes it, but I bet it's Danielson who will have the Brasstown Balls again this year.

As for the Grand Tours, I think that Discovery will keep a similar formula to last year, with Popo slotting into TDF leadership (tough to keep the same level there!). Tommy D will impress at both the Giro and the Vuelta, now that he has a full Grand Tour in his legs. At some point, though, maybe for 2007, Disco is going to have to figure out who gives them the best chance to win Le Tour, and if Popo doesn't show up big time in '06, that may just have to give the spot to Tom or Paolo.

Lots of folks seem to be already counting out Savoldelli at the Giro with Basso, Cunego, and Ullrich racing. Bad idea. It mad me laugh when I read Danielson's interview about the time trial practice run where Landis flew by him going down the hill. He said something about Landis being the best descender/bike handler in the world. I was thinking hey Tom, you've got this teamate that you'll be riding with all through May that's pretty good going down hills too.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Jesse D Smith said:


> I think Dave has to find a way to become more mentally solid if he's going to even finish the Tour.


I'm interested to hear why you say this. He seems tough enough to me, coming back from a bad injury to win a Vuelta stage on a long solo attack and then sticking in the TdF despite his crash last year for quite awhile.

Here's a quote from CN's coverage of Stage 8 last year:
_Almost an hour after today's winner, a battered but still game Dave Zabriskie struggled through the huge crowds on the final climb that made it almost impossible for the CSC man to get through to the summit to finish just minutes inside the day's time limit. The former maillot jaune, now last in classement generale may no longer be a contender, but he's no palooka and deserves a prize for most gutsy rider at this year's Tour de France._ 

And here's another one from Stage 9:
_Former Maillot Jaune Zabriskie abandoned due to stomach troubles after 10km, while Cioni counterattacked in pursuit of Rasmussen and bridged across easily to the Danish rider._

Perhaps you're referring to something other than the TdF as the basis for DZ being mentally un-solid. Anyway, I'm not saying he's going to win any TdF ITTs, just wondering what makes him un-solid.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

harlond said:


> Anyway, I'm not saying he's going to win any TdF ITTs



In the TDF that's a huge part of the bottom line. ...and we know he hasn't shown that he's a climber.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

howardpowered said:


> the field in stage 5 of TdG. This is just a prediction of course. We'll see who takes it, but I bet it's Danielson who will have the Brasstown Balls again this year.
> 
> As for the Grand Tours, I think that Discovery will keep a similar formula to last year, with Popo slotting into TDF leadership (tough to keep the same level there!). Tommy D will impress at both the Giro and the Vuelta, now that he has a full Grand Tour in his legs. At some point, though, maybe for 2007, Disco is going to have to figure out who gives them the best chance to win Le Tour, and if Popo doesn't show up big time in '06, that may just have to give the spot to Tom or Paolo.
> 
> Lots of folks seem to be already counting out Savoldelli at the Giro with Basso, Cunego, and Ullrich racing. Bad idea. It mad me laugh when I read Danielson's interview about the time trial practice run where Landis flew by him going down the hill. He said something about Landis being the best descender/bike handler in the world. I was thinking hey Tom, you've got this teamate that you'll be riding with all through May that's pretty good going down hills too.


Excellent viewpoint! I also caught that comment about Landis being the best descender. He certainly is good. In that TT bike of his, his elbows are almost locked together. You have to be a great bike handler to do that. That is why it will be difficult to copy his position.

Il Falco the great descender is exciting to watch. He's been very quiet so far so I am curious about him. On a side note, I heard about his crash history. Very brutal. I'm surprised he still descends so fast after some of those crashes.

BTW, Ullrich is a non-factor in the Giro. He really has no intentions to finish it.

francois


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Mosovich said:


> and he said this race is and objective for sure. It was interesting the a reporter from his home town asked him he considered himself a tour contender. He said without a doubt yes, but it took alot of pulling to get him to say that. He's a very modest guy. It was really cool, it was me and six reporters, and I was really the only person asking cycling questions. Robbie Hunter was at the table as well as the director sportif and they said they are definately going for victory here. Very cool and personal event.


Man, aren't you the lucky one. How do you get to sit with them. Are you a dignitary or a rich guy? Spill the beans.

francois


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Things I learned after reading some reports:

- This was looooong ITT. Many, many commented how hard it was. I think Popovych ran out of gas.

- Floyd ran out of gears. There was an 18% grade??? WTF? He said he bogged down and lost some time. Danielson probably liked the steeps. Zabriskie probably hated them.

- The descent was technical. That's where Floyd won it cause he's the best bike handler in the world <- says Danielson. I suspect Zabriskie's descending was weak.

- The flying squirrel wins again!!









<img src="https://www.wallpaper.net.au/wallpaper/animals/Squirrel%20-%201027x768.jpg" width="300">
fc


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## howardpowered (Jun 27, 2004)

I merely mentioned Ullrich because of how much attention he is pulling away from the other contenders.

Another note about Tommy D is that he seems to finally be developing his 60min TT abilities. A few good summit finishes in the Giro, and he'll have it all:

Prologue skills, positioning skills, long ITT skills, summit finish skills, num chuck skills, bowhunting skills, computer hacking skills. Napoleon's got nothing on this guy.

BTW the squirrel comparison is the funniest things I've seen on this site in a long time.


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## kirkdig (Apr 7, 2006)

Tom Danielson also just set a record for the climb up Lookout Mountain in Golden, CO on April 8th -- broke the old record by almost a minute. 

http://www.tomdanielson.com/pages/lookout.htm

My ride that day included Lookout Mtn but I didn't hear any sonic booms or see any blue blurs so I must have been on the mountain at another time.


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

francois said:


> Excellent viewpoint! I also caught that comment about Landis being the best descender. He certainly is good. In that TT bike of his, his elbows are almost locked together. You have to be a great bike handler to do that. That is why it will be difficult to copy his position.
> 
> Il Falco the great descender is exciting to watch. He's been very quiet so far so I am curious about him. On a side note, I heard about his crash history. Very brutal. I'm surprised he still descends so fast after some of those crashes.
> 
> ...


What makes you think he has no intention of finishing it? I haven't been able to find any interviews with him stating his indications.


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

harlond said:


> I'm interested to hear why you say this. He seems tough enough to me, coming back from a bad injury to win a Vuelta stage on a long solo attack and then sticking in the TdF despite his crash last year for quite awhile.
> 
> Here's a quote from CN's coverage of Stage 8 last year:
> _Almost an hour after today's winner, a battered but still game Dave Zabriskie struggled through the huge crowds on the final climb that made it almost impossible for the CSC man to get through to the summit to finish just minutes inside the day's time limit. The former maillot jaune, now last in classement generale may no longer be a contender, but he's no palooka and deserves a prize for most gutsy rider at this year's Tour de France._
> ...


Cyclesport did a story on CSC's unique training camp where Riis takes them on a sort of survival camp led of a former Danish Special Forces dude. They had to camp out, hike around, perform team tasks that tested their leadership, courage, and ability to endure under various circumstances. Apparently Dave displayed a poor attitude and showed little in the way of heart, patience, adaptability, confidence, and performance under pressure. I think he did well in the Tour's prologue when all eyes were on Jan, Ivan, and Lance. I'd sure like to see him grow and overcome this, but I just think it's not in his makeup.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Jesse D Smith said:


> What makes you think he has no intention of finishing it? I haven't been able to find any interviews with him stating his indications.


I'd bet he's less likely to actually take the start at Seraing than start and not finish.


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

MaRider said:


> I agree about Zabriskie. He is pretty good in ITT, but there are others that are just as good and who are also much better climbers.
> 
> Landis is not overrated, but it makes me wonder if he is peaking way too early. It's not really possible to stay in top shape from Paris-Nice through TdG all the way to July.
> 
> ...


Landis didn't get the full support of his team in last year's Tour. Oscar Pereiro spend the entire Tour chasing stage wins, using poor tactics to drop Botero at every opportunity when they could have worked together, whining when he lost to George, but finally getting his personal glory. I don't know how much difference he could have made, but Landis could sure use the extra help if a podium is truly their goal.


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## SeeVee (Sep 25, 2005)

He is a bad mamma jamma and a really nice guy!


After stage one, he was riding the last 100 meters backwards. I yelled his name and stopped and said a few words. He took a picture with me and was really cool about it. I saw him two days later in Chatanooga before the TT, and he remembered me. Really a nice guy.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

I don't think the winner of 2006 TdF has to neccessarily win ANY time trials. A huge chunk of time can be gained or lost in the mountains, no matter what people say about less mountains this year. People make the race, not the moutnains. 

Look at 2005 - Basso was second while he was only 5th in the last ITT and nowhere near top 10 in prologue. Prologue doesn't really gain anyone that much time, and in the other two ITTs one could conceivably stay in top 5 and maybe concede a few minutes here and there but gain a lot of time in the mountains. So perhaps time trials are the ones that are overhyped this year? 

Maybe it's too early to talk about possible contenders, but aside from Basso and Ulrich - the two obvious choices, there's Mancebo and Valverde as likely top riders. Of course Leipheimer, Landis, Popo, Vino, Evans. Perhaps some of the youngsters like Kashechkin, Karpets, Grivko could step up. Hopefully Sevilla can live up to the hype of his past.
There's always a couple of new names too. 

I think that battle within top 10 will be quite interesting this year.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

MaRider said:


> I don't think the winner of 2006 TdF has to neccessarily win ANY time trials. A huge chunk of time can be gained or lost in the mountains, no matter what people say about less mountains this year. People make the race, not the moutnains.
> 
> Look at 2005 - Basso was second while he was only 5th in the last ITT and nowhere near top 10 in prologue. Prologue doesn't really gain anyone that much time, and in the other two ITTs one could conceivably stay in top 5 and maybe concede a few minutes here and there but gain a lot of time in the mountains. So perhaps time trials are the ones that are overhyped this year?
> 
> ...


Last time I checked, Basso lost the 2005 TDF. He lost it by 4 minutes and 40 seconds.
Prologue - 1:24
ITT - 1:54
-------------
total - 3:18

So basically, Basso was wiped out by those two time trials. If there was a third one (like in 2006) that's another two minutes.

1:02 was also lost to Armstrong in the mountain top finish of Courchevel.

ITTs and mountain top finish are the key stages in the tour. It is when the top 10 of the tour gain and give time.

Of course, many, many things can happen in the other thousands of miles in the tour. But not often and not as predictable. Few contenders can really shake things up in a flat finish. Vinokourov is the exception to this as he can shake things up anytime.

It has been said, been said that it is the riders that make the race, not the course. I believe in that. Thank god too cause this 2006 TDF course is weak! 3 mountain top finishes? That's it??? No Team Time Trial? Two hour long ITTs?

It's a good thing there's no clear favorite this year since that will make things interesting. It would be nice to see Boonen and Petacchi mix it up.

[ I think that battle within top 10 will be quite interesting this year.]
Agreed 100%!

francois


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

francois said:


> Last time I checked, Basso lost the 2005 TDF. He lost it by 4 minutes and 40 seconds.
> Prologue - 1:24
> ITT - 1:54
> -------------
> ...



I think we are in total agreement - but what I meant with Basso is that if you take Lance out of Tour 2005 and leave everything else the same (I know, big assumption there), Basso would have won the Tour while not even making top 3 in either of two ITT.

I think everyone is correct that the importance is shifted towards ITTs this year, but I wouldn't discount the mountains - even if there are fewer mountain top finishes, I would expect teams to set the pace even higher prior to the mountains, so whatever mountains are there, they will be super-hard and will break things up. That's what I meant when I said that the riders make the race, not the course. You put 189 super-fit riders in a three week race and the race is going to be very hard no matter what. 

After tomorrow's LBL, I am already pumped up for Giro and the Tour.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

MaRider said:


> I think we are in total agreement - but what I meant with Basso is that if you take Lance out of Tour 2005 and leave everything else the same (I know, big assumption there), Basso would have won the Tour while not even making top 3 in either of two ITT.
> 
> I think everyone is correct that the importance is shifted towards ITTs this year, but I wouldn't discount the mountains - even if there are fewer mountain top finishes, I would expect teams to set the pace even higher prior to the mountains, so whatever mountains are there, they will be super-hard and will break things up. That's what I meant when I said that the riders make the race, not the course. You put 189 super-fit riders in a three week race and the race is going to be very hard no matter what.
> 
> After tomorrow's LBL, I am already pumped up for Giro and the Tour.



Gotcha!

This year, with the field more wide open. I am hoping for a lot more fireworks in the mountain stages without uphill finishes. It should happen since there is no dominating climber or dominating team.

Last year, everyone was just waiting, waiting to get spanked by Lance and Discovery on the uphill finish. The race was over after the prologue!

The competitive field will make up for the course I hope. Venga, venga to the Giro. I am watching it daily!!

francois


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## R.Rice (Aug 23, 2004)

Floyd wins it!!


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## Under ACrookedSky (Nov 8, 2005)

R.Rice said:


> Floyd wins it!!


I thought Landis would lose the overall for sure on that last climb, just like last year. But he seems to have kicked it up a notch this year. Three for three (if you don't count crashing out of the Criterium International).

It looks like leaving Disco/Postal was the right choice.


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## Guest (Apr 22, 2006)

Wow, pretty epic stage end, well, for the TdG anyway  

Tommy D needs a pinch of *killer instinct* me thinks. Floyd's has it already - and it shows. Seems to me that TD's climbing skills are better than Floyd's. Maybe the altitude wasn't high enough for TD to show off his stuff


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## R.Rice (Aug 23, 2004)

AJL said:


> Seems to me that TD's climbing skills are better than Floyd's.


You couldn't tell that today considering he attacked a few times and Floyd immediately covered him.


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## Guest (Apr 22, 2006)

R.Rice said:


> You couldn't tell that today considering he attacked a few times and Floyd immediately covered him.


True that. 

We won't get a direct comparison again this year, but we'll see how TD does in the alps in the Giro and how Floyd does in the alps in the TdF. I imagine that the stages will be more like the Mt. Evans Hill climb. TD's weight is around 135 lbs (61kg) but he can pump out at least 425 watts (~7 watts/kg). Anyone have stats on Floyd's power/weight or even LAs for comparison?


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

AJL said:


> True that.
> 
> We won't get a direct comparison again this year, but we'll see how TD does in the alps in the Giro and how Floyd does in the alps in the TdF. I imagine that the stages will be more like the Mt. Evans Hill climb. TD's weight is around 135 lbs (61kg) but he can pump out at least 425 watts (~7 watts/kg). Anyone have stats on Floyd's power/weight or even LAs for comparison?


I don't know about watts but in the early 90's when he raced MTB's for my friends company his VO2 tested in the low 80's, yikes. After seeing Floyd give everyone some stick on the Joux Plane in 2004 you gotta figure he's at or above the magical 7watts/kg. Also, I guarantee Floyd would give Salvoldelli a run for his money on descending, I've seen Floyd do stuff on a bicycle that would blow your mind.


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## Guest (Apr 24, 2006)

OnTheRivet said:


> IAlso, I guarantee Floyd would give Salvoldelli a run for his money on descending, I've seen Floyd do stuff on a bicycle that would blow your mind.


Sounds right OnTheRivet - to be a good mtnb racer you need to control your fear of fast technical decents. It's interesting that in the 2004 LA gave Floyd the go ahead to take a stage (against Kloden I think), but the decent wasn't very technical and Floyd couldn't gain enough time. LA eventually took the sprint - he didn't want a T-mobile guy winning after being spit at by too many germans on the way up the climb.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

AJL said:


> Sounds right OnTheRivet - to be a good mtnb racer you need to control your fear of fast technical decents. It's interesting that in the 2004 LA gave Floyd the go ahead to take a stage (against Kloden I think), but the decent wasn't very technical and Floyd couldn't gain enough time. LA eventually took the sprint - he didn't want a T-mobile guy winning after being spit at by too many germans on the way up the climb.


and of course we all know how good Michael Rasmussen is in terms of controlling his bike - another convert from mountain biking.

I really think it's too early to declare Floyd the best descent specialist in the world, on-par with Savoldelli - the falcon has demonstrated his amazing descending ability consistently and for many years, while Landis has yet to show us a single successful descent breakaway.


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## Guest (Apr 24, 2006)

MaRider said:


> and of course we all know how good Michael Rasmussen is in terms of controlling his bike - another convert from mountain biking.



Come on - not the same at all. Da Chicken was having problems in the ITT - he picked the wrong wheels, was nervous as all hell at the start and it all went sideways after that. As far as downhill breakaways - this will be the year to do it. If Landis wants to be the boss at this year's TdF, he'll have to show all his skills to put a bit of fear into the other riders. And despite FL comments, I think he wants the win and "boss man" status at the TdF, ala LA. But, if he gets the yellow jersey - he'll ride a bit more on the safe side.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

AJL said:


> Come on - not the same at all. Da Chicken was having problems in the ITT - he picked the wrong wheels, was nervous as all hell at the start and it all went sideways after that. As far as downhill breakaways - this will be the year to do it. If Landis wants to be the boss at this year's TdF, he'll have to show all his skills to put a bit of fear into the other riders. And despite FL comments, I think he wants the win and "boss man" status at the TdF, ala LA. But, if he gets the yellow jersey - he'll ride a bit more on the safe side.


Not the same at all, but I can't see Landis going in solo breakaway on the downhill in TdF. He is a marked man. 

Landis better save his energy for when it counts - two long ITT's and mountain finishes.

Latest trends of Landis worshippers (he is a god in ITT, he is the best climber, and now apparently he can descend as well as Savoldelli) reminds me of LA fandom. With Landis there's a good chance it's just that - hype. He is a solid GC contender, best american hope for podium and somewhat of an underdog. Let's leave it at that.


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