# Bradley Wiggins Can't Win



## Frith (Oct 3, 2002)

If he finishes in yellow it will be because "this tour favours time trials". Even though TT specialists like Martin, Cancellara etc will be nowhere near the top at the end and he's proved in the past that he is very much an all rounder.

If he doesn't finish in yellow it will be because "he peaked too soon". Even though none of us has any evidence to support that besides what races he's won this season.

There have been far more TT heavy Tours De France in the past and while he's lucky that this one has two plus a prologue there is no avoiding going uphill.

I personally think if he wins it's because he's spent a year working hard towards it and he along with the people and resources at Sky were capable of delivering. I also think we're about to enter into a new era of training wisdom post-lance that says that you don't have to peak so sharply and that in fact it's easier to get it right if you hover near top form for an extended period.

All that said, Evans is awesome, and it's going to be fantastic watching the two of them battle it out while keeping any opportunistic attacks in check.


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

well its a good thing he listens to real experts instead of us armchair experts banter on this forum. its fun to give our opinion tho.
even if he doesn't win the tour, he's still had an awesome year and the best of his career which equals a winner to me


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

In a way, I hope he doesn't win. Much like Lance and his high cadence, I don't think we'd ever hear the end of elliptical chainrings.


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

spade2you said:


> In a way, I hope he doesn't win. Much like Lance and his high cadence, I don't think we'd ever hear the end of elliptical chainrings.


But they're 17.356% more efficient! They save you 29.4585830 watts at 42.567 kph!! They save you 14.857 seconds on a 40.8489234 k TT!!!


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

*Too Much Tour Focus*

Brad Wiggins could win every race he entered, but some will still say "Yeah but he didn't win the Tour".

The Tour is just one of many races in the season. It's not the be-all-and-end-all of bike races.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Frith said:


> If he finishes in yellow it will be because "this tour favours time trials". Even though TT specialists like Martin, Cancellara etc will be nowhere near the top at the end and he's proved in the past that he is very much an all rounder.
> 
> If he doesn't finish in yellow it will be because "he peaked too soon". Even though none of us has any evidence to support that besides what races he's won this season.



I don't get what you are saying.

If he finishes in yellow, I predict he will win the Tour.
If he doesn't finish in yellow, I predict he will not! 

On a serious note, I suspect Wiggo will be dropped at one of the serious climbs by key GC contenders. Just like he was dropped at Vuelta last year.
Whether they take full advantage of it, is up to them.


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## Dajianshan (Jul 15, 2007)

Something always happens to him.


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## trailrunner68 (Apr 23, 2011)

Frith said:


> There have been far more TT heavy Tours De France in the past and while he's lucky that this one has two plus a prologue there is no avoiding going uphill.


There is when the race director neuters the mountain stages. There are two proper mountain stages that end with an ascent this year. Two mountain stages end with a short climb but do not feature huge amounts of climbing prior to the finish. Four mountain stages end with a descent. The course is designed to keep the contenders within reasonable time gaps until the time trial on the penultimate stage.

It looks like the fix is in.

I hope that Menchov upsets the race director's plans.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

Dajianshan said:


> Something always happens to him.


and something will happen this Tour.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

spade2you said:


> In a way, I hope he doesn't win. Much like Lance and his high cadence, I don't think we'd ever hear the end of elliptical chainrings.


Not much noise last time the winner used ovals.


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

I really don't believe in "he peaked too soon".

Honestly, how many time do we have to argue w/ this one?


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## B.Garcia (Nov 21, 2011)

I think some of us are forgetting that there is bad luck at the tour. Last year, crashes plagued the tour and who knows this year could be no different. Not only does the winner have strong in the ITT's and mountains but they also need a little bit of lady luck just to stay up right. Just saying.
Regardless on who wins, there will always be speculation that they "peaked to soon", "were to tired"(pretty much the same thing) or that they "weren't ready" even for the tour


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## Iwannapodiumgirl (Jun 26, 2002)

Frith said:


> If he finishes in yellow it will be because...
> 
> If he doesn't finish in yellow it will be because...


are you still removing splinters from your backside?


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## superjesus (Jul 26, 2010)

Dajianshan said:


> Something always happens to him.


That's what everyone said about Cadel.


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## gordy748 (Feb 11, 2007)

I don't think he'll win, for the following reasons:

1) he can time trial but so can a lot of others. I don't think he will gain so much time in the first TT stage in time for...
2) the mountains. I'm not so sure this is a TTer's tour, there are some ridiculous mountain stages. Sky are good but I haven't yet seen them control the peleton uphill, they seem to be more there or thereabouts but never at the front. I think this will expose Wiggo because...
3) climbing and descending. He's a better climber this year but I think he's still disadvantaged to Cadel. Then there is descending; Cadel's got away from him several times on the Dauphine, which gives Cadel the advantage because...
4) it's a long 3 weeks. I'm not sure I buy into the "long period at near-peak performance" training program compared to the clear steady improvement regime. Lance (God bless him, seems noone else will) was never so fast as Wiggo in the build-up to the Tour.

That said, I seem to have the kiss of death this year; every team I supported through the Stanley Cup and NBA playoffs lost to the other team. So while I don't think he'll win, I'll still sneak in a cheeky $10 bet Wiggo will.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

gordy748 said:


> I don't think he'll win, for the following reasons:
> 
> 
> 2) the mountains. I'm not so sure this is a TTer's tour, there are some ridiculous mountain stages. Sky are good but I haven't yet seen them control the peleton uphill, they seem to be more there or thereabouts but never at the front. I think this will expose Wiggo because...


did you see dauphine last month?


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## gordy748 (Feb 11, 2007)

den bakker said:


> did you see dauphine last month?


That I did. I honestly wasn't that impressed with Sky, certainly not when compared to the domination showed by, say, Banesto with Indurain or Postal with Armstrong. Like I said, there or thereabouts but Cadel got away a few too many times.


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## EuroSVT (Sep 15, 2011)

There were a few moments at Dauphine where Cadel looked to be holding back. And no I'm not saying that simply because it's what Phil said today


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

gordy748 said:


> That I did. I honestly wasn't that impressed with Sky, certainly not when compared to the domination showed by, say, Banesto with Indurain or Postal with Armstrong. Like I said, there or thereabouts but Cadel got away a few too many times.


well you are entitled to your opinion of course


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## nacnac3 (Dec 27, 2002)

I thought Cadel tried to hit Wiggo today on that last climb. Its not exactly a mountain stage but Cadel couldn't pull away.

We'll see what happens when the mountains hit but right now, I'd say Wiggo has to be the favorite.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

gordy748 said:


> I don't think he'll win, for the following reasons:
> 
> 1) he can time trial but so can a lot of others. I don't think he will gain so much time in the first TT stage in time for...
> 2) the mountains. I'm not so sure this is a TTer's tour, there are some ridiculous mountain stages. Sky are good but I haven't yet seen them control the peleton uphill, they seem to be more there or thereabouts but never at the front. I think this will expose Wiggo because...
> ...


Wiggo has been excellent in the TT all year with lots of wins. Others can TT but this year nobody has as well as him over distances and Wiggins said allowing Cadel his gaps on the descents was intentional risk management.

Lance was always flying in June up until the last year or two. He almost always won his warm up races. He was also a practitioner of the method Wiggins in employing (staying near top-fitness instead of peaks/valleys). We'll see if Wiggins can achieve the same result.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

I don't want to see Cadel or Wiggo win, simply because the Fanboy British Press have already pronounced that there really is nobody else capable of winning. I would love to see someone like Valverde leaving a steaming pile of poo all over that theory.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

Yup... that's the only bad thing about Brits winning... We never hear the end of it. 

They still bring up the Football WC they won in '66 while Brazil has won 5, the Web Ellis Cup they've won while the whole southern hemisphere has won it twice, how great were Jim Clark and Jackie Stewart like if Fangio and Schumacher didn't exist, etc.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

DZfan14 said:


> I don't want to see Cadel or Wiggo win, simply because the Fanboy British Press have already pronounced that there really is nobody else capable of winning. I would love to see someone like Valverde leaving a steaming pile of poo all over that theory.


yes god forbid sport criteria would get in the way of sticking it to those pesky brits


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

den bakker said:


> yes god forbid sport criteria would get in the way of sticking it to those pesky brits


I wish I could be as sophisticated as you. But until then I will thoroughly enjoy rooting against Wigan.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Ridin'Sorra said:


> Yup... that's the only bad thing about Brits winning... We never hear the end of it.
> 
> They still bring up the Football WC they won in '66 while Brazil has won 5, the Web Ellis Cup they've won while the whole southern hemisphere has won it twice, how great were Jim Clark and Jackie Stewart like if Fangio and Schumacher didn't exist, etc.


Great point. Remember when Lewis Hamilton showed up the scene? He had barely turned a wheel in F1 and the fanboy Brit press pronounced him better than Senna.. He may not even be as good as Jenson Button.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

DZfan14 said:


> I wish I could be as sophisticated as you. But until then I will thoroughly enjoy rooting against Wigan.


yes quickly, make it about me. 
I think even the brits have little hope Wigan will do well.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

DZfan14 said:


> Great point. Remember when Lewis Hamilton showed up the scene? He had barely turned a wheel in F1 and the fanboy Brit press pronounced him better than Senna.. He may not even be as good as Jenson Button.


Hamilton is fun to watch. Pretty much like Cancellara on St.1, you know he's winning or going down in flames (read, the kid has no brains :lol.

Unfortunately, he races for McLaren (a British squad) and the whole BBC broadcast becomes an ode to Hamilton or Jenson.

I will expect the same about Wiggins and Cavendish.

If Wiggins wins a TdF expect the comparisons with Indurain and Armstrong coming from the British press.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Ridin'Sorra said:


> Hamilton is fun to watch. Pretty much like Cancellara on St.1, you know he's winning or going down in flames (read, the kid has no brains :lol.
> 
> Unfortunately, he races for McLaren (a British squad) and the whole BBC broadcast becomes an ode to Hamilton or Jenson.
> 
> ...


That's already started!


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

Wiggins and Evans are still the favorites until someone proves otherwise. They both look very strong and their teams are strong enough to get them to the hills.

Should be some fireworks at stage 7 & 8. A good chance for someone to get way and make them sweat before the next ITT. They will have to control those stages somewhat.

This Tour definitely has a different feel to it. I just hope the crashes don't affect the racing and we can see who can race and who can't.


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## 67caddy (Nov 4, 2009)

Wiggins weakness is his descending skills. Not that he's horrible, but not as good as Cadel or Nibali. Cadel has shown that if you can gap him before the summit and Wiggins is isolated, he's going to lose huge chunks of time. There are two stages where this scenerio can come into play. I suspect that guys like Sanchez, Nibali and Evans will be ready to exploit it fully. If Wiggins can keep from losing a few minutes on these two stages, he has a pretty good chance of winning. Ulrich was a horrible descender early in his career, he probably would not have taken his one Tour GC victory without the help of Bjarne Riis to lead him downhill. Descending skills are the one thing that most people never take into account when considering GC chances.


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## Timbuctoo (Apr 23, 2009)

Yeah, Evans needs to get a minute on Wiggins up the final climb on Saturday's Stage 7. There's a little downhill section just prior to the final climb, Evans should gap Wiggins there and go hard with two other climbers up the final climb. 
Stage 8: He needs to attack a little earlier than he left it in the Dauphine, the Col de la Croix could be another launching pad for Cadel and some other decent decenders.
Wiggins will have all the other GC contenders fighting against him on every uphill section in the last two weeks, together that would advantage those like Cadel or Nibali to hold off Wiggins in the final TT. I put guys like Heisjedal and Menchov in the same style/style as Wiggins (defensive in the mountains).
Stage 7 will let everybody see whether climbing or TTs will win the Tour.


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## FlandersFields (Jul 16, 2010)

gordy748 said:


> That I did. I honestly wasn't that impressed with Sky, certainly not when compared to the domination showed by, say, Banesto with Indurain or Postal with Armstrong. Like I said, there or thereabouts but Cadel got away a few too many times.


You can't compare these eras. Banesto and Postal were 'eating different food'. Sky is by far the best team this year. Problem is, this year they've already had numerous falls AND they lost Sivtsov, who was an obvious key player on the team. Still Bradley will win.


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## roddjbrown (Jan 19, 2012)

Wow, there's a lot of Wiggins/Britain/Sky/The British Press/British Fanboys.

WHO has compared Wiggins to Indurain or (the great?/USADA favourite) Lance Armstron? Link?

Personally I'm British, I do like Sky both because of them being British and the presence of certain riders. Wiggins isn't one of those riders funnily enough, because I don't think he's ever going to make me jump out of my seat in excitement. 

He's a bit of a grinder and if he wins I suspect I'll be happy but I'll probably have had less of a fun 3 weeks as it'll be a ground out win.


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