# TdF 2015 Stage 2 discussion - warning - spoilers



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*TdF 2015 Stage 2 7am Eastern Time discussion - warning - spoilers*

Stage 2, Utrecht to Zelande, via Rotterdam (watch your language, young man) is about 100 miles of relatively cool coastal ride - looking at the map, the route route looks treacherous for wind. Things start out with a tourist's whirlwind through Utrecht, then west to the English Channel. The final third is basically a route intermingled with the water.

Start time is 1:15pm CEST, which I believe is 7:15am US Eastern Time, 6:15 US Central, 5:15 MTN, 4:15 Pac

The final 5 or six miles are amazingly straight - there is no funny business at the end. So, like today's short Stage 1 time trial, there is huge opportunity for some young turks to get shoulder-to-shoulder with the fearful sprinters and grab some glory. Considering the wind, and the fast end we are likely to see, teamwork and position will be everything.

I can almost guarantee there will be no breakaway - it is too easy for the several sprinter's teams to be desiring a win, or at least a great placement, on this scenic, highly visible early stage. If the peloton breaks up, it will be due to the high speed and high wind.

Overall, a great way to avoid the tragedy of a boring first-week, as has plagued the Tour on many years.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*What about the Zuyder Zee?*







The tour planners passed up the opportunity to incorporate the classic 250-mile Zuyder Zee circuit as a stage!

Oliver Wendell Holmes's poem: Robinson Of Leyden


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*pic: the run-in to the finish line - looking west*

the run-in to the finish line - looking west
it looks like hedge and an elevated roadway to the west as the course runs to the finish line, WSW. This may give a lot of shelter from the wind.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

Tragedy of a boring first week? Last year's first week was mayhem - cobbles, Nibali getting heaps of time, and Froome and others crashing out. If anything, the Tour has over-compensated for the traditional first week (which in old school was a week for riders to ride into form). 

The forecast calls for rain tomorrow, so expect more mayhem. Pancake flat, wide roads won't help. Hopefully, none of the favorites will crash out and ruin the expected showdown in the mountains.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Tragedy of a noring first week is based on history, not just last year.

Yes, the tour may be over-compensating for past years. The last couple Lance wins were snoozers for the first week - the team's nine riders were Lance domestiques controlling the usual warm-up flat stages of the first week in preparation for the mountain stages.

The risk of an exciting, challenging first week is that the Tour risks having a major contender either take a big early lead (kind of like this year's Giro) OR losing a major challenger to a fall, mechanical, or injury - like Froome TdF '14.

My guess is that it is best to have a challenging first week, and hope the great riders keep it between the ditches and keep the rubber side down.


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

"Proper storm" Interesting day :blush2:


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

I'm looking for a favorite or two getting caught out by crosswinds and finding themselves in the wrong echelon. Combine that with the rain and we should have an eventful stage.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

wow that gap from the crash may just be the beginning of the shattering of this ride, if the gap holds when they hit the really bad weather...


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Quintana and Valverde in the chasing group at over a minute down!


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

"Nibali flicks his elbow but there's nobody there! Just a ghost."

*as he decided to try to bridge the gap to the yellow jersey group 43 seconds ahead.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Wish Eurosport had commentary this morning


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

They do, I'm listening to it right now


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

MMsRepBike said:


> They do, I'm listening to it right now


Strange i had none all morning... OTOH no commercials either.

On Eurosport player


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

It was same as usual, same pre-race show with Greg and such. Nothing out of the ordinary. I did notice yesterday though that the player I was using had no sound, but it was just the sound slider thing.

As for today's stage, well, that was interesting. Happy with the win, good to see him get it. Happy with 3rd place too, never giving up and getting yellow for it. 4th place not bothering to throw his bike probably cost his team the yellow, but I doubt he cares.

Oh, and of course... the HUGE time gaps for so many favorites and such.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

MMsRepBike said:


> It was same as usual, same pre-race show with Greg and such. Nothing out of the ordinary. I did notice yesterday though that the player I was using had no sound, but it was just the sound slider thing.
> 
> As for today's stage, well, that was interesting. Happy with the win, good to see him get it. Happy with 3rd place too, never giving up and getting yellow for it. 4th place not bothering to throw his bike probably cost his team the yellow, but I doubt he cares.
> 
> Oh, and of course... the HUGE time gaps for so many favorites and such.


I dunno what the deal was. I had audio-just the raw race audio, and like I said no commercials. Commentary was fine yesterday. Course this is on my paid Eurosport subscription on UK Eurosport. 

Had to resort to listening to the Phil/Paul menagerie. To quote Paul: "Well that went much as how we expected"...yea phil, it went exactly how you talked about it at the start-except for the weather, and the crashes, and the strings of flats, and the winner of the stage. Other than that, it went _precisely _how you predicted it.


Ugly weather but exciting stage.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Wow did Etixx screw that up. Did too much work and left Cav with a weak leadout that he blew but jumping too early, and to top it off flicked Tony and handed Fabian the jersey.


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

not a happy team bus tonight.


other busses are probably even unhappier. Astana, Movistar, AG2R, etc.

And a wild one tomorrow.


This is great for us spectators.


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## bluelena69 (Apr 19, 2005)

I thought Cavendish had grown up but today showed what a self-centered punk he still is. This after all of the work Martin does pulling his ass to the line all year. I think we also learned that he is not only a punk, but that he looks to have Tyler Farrar-level speed anymore.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

32and3cross said:


> Wow did Etixx screw that up. Did too much work and left Cav with a weak leadout that he blew but jumping too early, and to top it off flicked Tony and handed Fabian the jersey.


Their fate had as much to do with other teams forcing it on them, which is good tactics. The leadout goes however fast it does, Martin wasn't able to hang, can't do anything but attempt to keep Fabian out of the top-3, which is what I believe Cav was trying to achieve by going for the line far earlier then he knew he could win from, just trying to put enough other sprinters between Fabian and the line. Only fell 1 place short. Hat's off to Fabian, seems he still has the fire in his belly after all.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

davidka said:


> Their fate had as much to do with other teams forcing it on them, which is good tactics. The leadout goes however fast it does, Martin wasn't able to hang, can't do anything but attempt to keep Fabian out of the top-3, which is what I believe Cav was trying to achieve by going for the line far earlier then he knew he could win from, just trying to put enough other sprinters between Fabian and the line. Only fell 1 place short. Hat's off to Fabian, seems he still has the fire in his belly after all.


I disagree, Etixx only needed to keep the break clear not drive as hard as they could to open that huge gap they don't have a GC rider (sorry Uran has shown he can't hang in the MTNs) that would put pressure on Saxo/BMC/Lotto and Sky to work harder earlier all of them had numbers. As it was Etixx committed Tony to working early while Fabian sat in the only way that works out for Etixx is if either Tony got the Yellow OR Cav won (really it should have been both) as it was they not nothing. Cav going early had more to do with Etixx running out of riders and nothing to do with him trying to help Tony. Simple as that Etixx over estimated their chances.

Tomorrow Tony will get shelled with Cav and lose any chance of yellow they only hope they have is that Uran/Kwiatkowski hang on.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

32and3cross said:


> Wow did Etixx screw that up. Did too much work and left Cav with a weak leadout that he blew but jumping too early, and to top it off flicked Tony and handed Fabian the jersey.


^ this


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

If Tony can keep close over the next few days, I imagine they will go all in on stage 9 during the TTT. He is second now, and if he keeps it close, could easily take the yellow jersey away from Trek as Ettix is a former TTT champion team.

I was completely embarrassed watching the interviews afterwords. NBC did a **** job of it and the banter where Bobke and VdV tried to call out Cav and talk **** was downright dumb. If either of those two dip shits had won anything in the Tour, or their career for that matter, have a shot. If not, STFU. The best part of the post race was when Tony Martin simply rode away from the clown interviewing him on the finish line.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

well, my forecast did not take into account the weather forecast - some smart riders knew to stay in good position on a day when many would say it was not that critical, it seemed like the ride would be day-n-night with a stormy finish, and Mother Nature had different plans.

The lead group had just enough riders to sustain a pace equivalent to the peloton, and the peloton had just enough bad weather and road furniture to keep them in check. This is what made the day, but I am still surprised that the breakaway held it even with the weather clearing up toward the final quarter of the ride.

Like often happens, the winds behind the stormy front were quite calm. This made a unique viewing event for us, and a conundrum for many of the riders.

Griepel is an experienced rider, and mastered the day. As did Cancellara. Almost anyone would be happy with the day Cav had, except for Cav, missing a time bonus by less than half a wheel.

Time is just about to tap on the shoulder of Cancellara - within five years, it will not be so scary for competitors to see Cancellara rubbing shoulders and handlebars in such rare-air echelons. Well played, Spatacus - at the end, he had a more direct line right ahead of him, just to Cav's right, but he glides in the slipstream of the next two riders to his right to narrowly nick third. Wow. That is experience and is close to instinct.

Griepel - always a gritty rider seizes the day.

Quintana - not sure what to say.

Contador - being himself. Sitting well-positioned in the catbird seat waiting for that one moment to pounce, and otherwise being one of the greatest defenders within the recent several years, at least. Today was definitely not the day to go for the overall GC, but he gets a minute on challengers on Day 2 - well played, senor.

Patriots: TJ looked a bit weak at the end of all of this. It is nice to see him in the rare air of the top ten, but can he hold - was he at the edge of his reach, or just waiting for his moment?

Froome - this kind of stuff is why I did not put Froome, an awesome rider, in my top three. Froome is not out of the running by a long shot, but you have to wake up early to out-ride and out-smart Contador.

Sagan - Sagan looked good today, overall. Tinko Saxo looks great. Their long-shot expensive gamble is beginning to look less crazy.


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## coldash (May 7, 2012)

PJay said:


> Froome - this kind of stuff is why I did not put Froome, an awesome rider, in my top three. Froome is not out of the running by a long shot, but you have to wake up early to out-ride and out-smart Contador.


Me no understand. Froome finished the stage 4 seconds ahead of Contador.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

Ettix thought they had a cross tail but the wind switched to cross head. Had it been a tail cross Cav could have been fine. Because it came into his face all he did was serve as a lead out

Cav is like Boonen, if they aren't in a place to win they shut down. They are in the moment and thinking of their team mates in that 1-2 seconds just isn't there. Some guys think more tactically, some guys are so in the moment they don't. 
I'm not blaming Cav and I'm sure he's beating himself up over both the loss and Martin's shot

from his feed with a pic of the finish

"Look at this photo. If I could hang on for 3rd, I could hang on for the win... Some imbeciles think cycling is a computer game. Problem is, social media & TV are platforms for them to be heard. Gutted for Tony Martin. Congratulations Andre Greipel."


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

32and3cross said:


> I disagree, Etixx only needed to keep the break clear not drive as hard as they could to open that huge gap they don't have a GC rider (sorry Uran has shown he can't hang in the MTNs) that would put pressure on Saxo/BMC/Lotto and Sky to work harder earlier all of them had numbers. As it was Etixx committed Tony to working early while Fabian sat in the only way that works out for Etixx is if either Tony got the Yellow OR Cav won (really it should have been both) as it was they not nothing. Cav going early had more to do with Etixx running out of riders and nothing to do with him trying to help Tony. Simple as that Etixx over estimated their chances.
> 
> Tomorrow Tony will get shelled with Cav and lose any chance of yellow they only hope they have is that Uran/Kwiatkowski hang on.


They knew a huge, desperate group was chasing and other teams were motivated to gain time on GC (Etixx wasn't the only team working). They hoped they could beat Fabian with several other sprinters present. It didn't work out, even though they did it right. That's racing..


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## gofast2wheeler (Oct 13, 2011)

Watching the race and listening to Bobke during post race I side with Bobke. This is the Tour and everybody knows the stakes. Team car I hope would have let Cav know what order Fabian would need to finish for Tony to where yellow. Very poor managed race or Cav just gave up. I am a fan of Cav but hate when he just stops pedaling when someone starts to pass him. You should pedal as hard as you can until you cross the line. Tony was very dejected and you could tell he was disappointed at what happen. Myself I would have gone down swinging no effort on Cavs part it looked like but nobody knows really what Cav was thinking about except him but this is why we watch and comment and they get paid big bucks. Just think if Cav kepted pedaling over line and Fabian still came in third no controversy. Team sport people.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Sorry - I was looking at overall standings when I was lookingfor the day's standings, and missed him being in the right place at the end.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

32and3cross said:


> I disagree, Etixx only needed to keep the break clear not drive as hard as they could to open that huge gap they don't have a GC rider (sorry Uran has shown he can't hang in the MTNs) that would put pressure on Saxo/BMC/Lotto and Sky to work harder earlier all of them had numbers. As it was Etixx committed Tony to working early while Fabian sat in the only way that works out for Etixx is if either Tony got the Yellow OR Cav won (really it should have been both) as it was they not nothing. Cav going early had more to do with Etixx running out of riders and nothing to do with him trying to help Tony. Simple as that Etixx over estimated their chances.
> 
> Tomorrow Tony will get shelled with Cav and lose any chance of yellow they only hope they have is that Uran/Kwiatkowski hang on.


EXACTLY! Agreed. I was surprised to see how often they used Tony Martin (mouth open, gasping for air, obviously spending himself) early on in the break. Same for Kwiatkowski. I guess they were really confident that Cav would deliver if the break stayed away. They had 6 Ettix men in the break, and they initiated it, so they may have figured they might as well do something, which is admirable. 

But if I were them I would have sat up once the gap stabilized at 40-50 seconds and then have super-leadout with Martin taking the long pull with ~2K to go then Kwiatkowski go for a medium-range pull, then Renshaw light it up for Cav and they would have the stage win and perhaps even yellow jersey, no problem. Instead they had a super-early, mis-timed, crappy leadout, if one can even call it that, that left Cav at the front way too early. THAT was the problem, not Cav not throwing the bike for 3rd. With sprinters you have to condition them to be in either "ON or OFF" mode. You can't ask them to sprint fast for the win, but also to save something for later in case they need to throw their bike for third.

Having said all that, admitting that Ettix could have played their cards a bit better in the end, I am tired of reading article after article about how Ettix were the big losers in the end. Really?! It wasn't Quintana/Valverde, Nibali, JRod, Talansky, Perod, etc. Basically everyone. Ettix made the move that made the day, drove it all the way till the end, and while they messed it up with a sprint from a small group, they had a pretty fantastic setup today. They moved their GC man Uran up (he needs it) and were so close to getting the stage win AND yellow. They set themselves up for greatness, but made a small mistake - so now they are the biggest losers, but in alternative universe they would be geniuses who initiated the move, got the break, drove it and got yellow and stage. 

This is the problem with modern report cycling reporting. They do this as if this one stage is a commentary on entire field's ability and fail to realize that there is certain randomness in outcomes that is difficult to predict or control no matter how good you are. In their eyes, from today's results Greipel is a genius, Sagan sucks yet again (how many second places = "first loser" can he get?) and Cav is a super-slow inconsiderate prick who hates his own teammates. Tomorrow it will be Cav who is a genius, or maybe Sagan is fantastic and totally worth his million$, and Greipel is washed-up and needs to retire immediately. The cycling press is so reactionary they fail to see the big picture and patterns. 

I swear, cyclingnews had an article after yesterday how Nibali is already destroying his GC opponents in the time trial. By like 5 seconds!


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

I disagree. Think about it. Someone asks you to give 100% for 30 seconds. How much more can you give after giving it ALL after those 30 seconds?

The correct answer is NOTHING. You should feel like falling off your bike at that point. If you can give a single pedal stroke, this only means you did NOT give your 100% for 30 seconds.

I agree with Cav. Too many fans think it's a video game. You press a button and you go a little faster. Cav went all out for the stage win. He pushed himself way past the redline. Once Greipel goes around him, he HAS to shut it down. You can't expect him to save something for second sprint while giving it ALL. This is a feature (not a bug) of a great sprinter. They go all out, but save nothing. It's ALL or Nothing for them. As it should be.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Sagan would have destroyed Cavendish and Griepel if he didn't get a flat tire.


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## 9W9W (Apr 5, 2012)

55x11 said:


> You can't expect him to save something for second sprint while giving it ALL. This is a feature (not a bug) of a great sprinter. They go all out, but save nothing. It's ALL or Nothing for them. As it should be.


I wasn't expecting him to go video game faster, but I wasn't expecting him to sit up on his bike either. Are you denying he sat up on his bike and coasted across the line? You're telling me those four extra pedal strokes would have fried his circuits for the next two weeks? C'mon now.

What Cav needs is a cup full of urine tossed at him again, and he just may get it.

PS- for the record, I got Talansky disappointing everyone and TJ's heart shattering into a million pieces. my - rather dark pics - riding high.


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## Tschai (Jun 19, 2003)

55x11 said:


> I disagree. Think about it. Someone asks you to give 100% for 30 seconds. How much more can you give after giving it ALL after those 30 seconds?
> 
> The correct answer is NOTHING. You should feel like falling off your bike at that point. If you can give a single pedal stroke, this only means you did NOT give your 100% for 30 seconds.
> 
> I agree with Cav. Too many fans think it's a video game. You press a button and you go a little faster. Cav went all out for the stage win. He pushed himself way past the redline. Once Greipel goes around him, he HAS to shut it down. You can't expect him to save something for second sprint while giving it ALL. This is a feature (not a bug) of a great sprinter. They go all out, but save nothing. It's ALL or Nothing for them. As it should be.


BS. Cav sat up and that's why he didn't get third. It's that simple. No buttons involved. Don't sit up and your team has yellow, perhaps for 7 more stages. That's huge. That's a successful season. He expects his teammates to work for the team. Sitting up was selfish BS.


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## aclinjury (Sep 12, 2011)

I'm pretty sure Cav sat up because his tank was completely emptied. Oxygen to the brain was lacking. All muscles were at the point of seizing. Probably seeing color spots in his mind as oxygen deprivation intensified. That was why he sat up. Don't you people think that a top sprinter like Cav, if he could even attempt another second, he would have? After all, HE had a lot more at stakes than all internet coaches. 

And this is coming from a guy who doesn't like Cav.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Skewer said:


> Sagan would have destroyed Cavendish and Griepel if he didn't get a flat tire.


Unlikely


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## Blue CheeseHead (Jul 14, 2008)

55x11 said:


> I disagree. Think about it. Someone asks you to give 100% for 30 seconds. How much more can you give after giving it ALL after those 30 seconds?
> 
> The correct answer is NOTHING. You should feel like falling off your bike at that point. If you can give a single pedal stroke, this only means you did NOT give your 100% for 30 seconds.
> 
> I agree with Cav. Too many fans think it's a video game. You press a button and you go a little faster. Cav went all out for the stage win. He pushed himself way past the redline. Once Greipel goes around him, he HAS to shut it down. You can't expect him to save something for second sprint while giving it ALL. This is a feature (not a bug) of a great sprinter. They go all out, but save nothing. It's ALL or Nothing for them. As it should be.


You give it your all to the finish line. The top 3 finishers did. Cav got what he earned, as did Cancellara.


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## jspharmd (May 24, 2006)

aclinjury said:


> I'm pretty sure Cav sat up because his tank was completely emptied. Oxygen to the brain was lacking. All muscles were at the point of seizing. Probably seeing color spots in his mind as oxygen deprivation intensified. That was why he sat up. Don't you people think that a top sprinter like Cav, if he could even attempt another second, he would have? After all, HE had a lot more at stakes than all internet coaches.
> 
> And this is coming from a guy who doesn't like Cav.


I didn't see Cav's muscles locking up. I know what it looks like when your muscles lock up, I've seen videos of this happening (myself included). I think Cav gave it his all, from a long way out, and then gave up when he didn't have the win. It is clear that he looked right and stopped pedaling. I don't always agree with the announcers, but the instinctive comment that "Cav only races for the win..." seemed spot on. He may have, in that moment, forgotten that a win wasn't his only objective. He may have even thought that there was no way Cancellara could have nipped him at the line after his sprint effort. Regardless, he gave up and lost. It was a mistake, and I'm sure he hates that he made it. I don't think it was arrogance or not caring about Tony Martin. I don't think Cav is like that. Listen to some of his post win interviews, he always credits his teammates.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

aclinjury said:


> I'm pretty sure Cav sat up because his tank was completely emptied. Oxygen to the brain was lacking. All muscles were at the point of seizing. Probably seeing color spots in his mind as oxygen deprivation intensified. That was why he sat up. Don't you people think that a top sprinter like Cav, if he could even attempt another second, he would have? After all, HE had a lot more at stakes than all internet coaches.


I agree with you. The data from the race shows he went through the finish line at the same speed as Griepel. He simply had no more power to accelerate. It was a bummer for Tony M., but that's racing.


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