# Rest Day Summary: Winners and Losers so far



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

*Winners:*
the biggest winners by far is Sky team. 3 stage wins with Cav, Froome and Wiggins. Wiggins is much better off than I expected at this point. Team is super-strong. Cav is probably focusing more on Olympics and had some bad luck but still showed he can win with no support whatsoever.

Liquigas. Sagan is amazing! Is likely to hold green to Paris. And Nibali is still in the hunt for podium. What else could they wish for?

Radioshack. I am surprised to say this but they have done well. Win by Cancellara and 7 days in yellow. 2 in top 7 on GC and 4 in top 17, as well as team standings. Not bad for a dysfunctional team - and most of the top GC guys are lesser known riders. Gallopin is one of this year's Tour revelations.

Lotto. Two stages by Greipel and Van den Broeck is still placed well, despite mechanical.

FDJ. The only frenchman who did something great was Pinot, and what an emotional win it was!

*Teams that did OK.*
Astana. Kestiakoff is in polka dot, but missed out on the stage win, big time! Brajkovic has lost too much time to be considered serious threat on GC. Get Vino in a break!

BMC. They did well but I expected Evans to be closer to Wiggins. They stayed out of trouble and Van Garderen is in white now, so it's not all so bad, but Evans needs to attack big time, and has little support in the mountains. Is Gilbert still on the team? Haven't heard much from him.

Katyusha. Menchov is lurking around but other than that nothing to report so far.

Cofidis. They have a new star with Taramae, but they need stage win or white or something. I expected Moncoutie go for polka dot.

Saxo Bank. They did Ok with Morkov in polka dot, I expected less from them.

*Losers:*

Garmin. Everyone crashed, Tyler Farrar never really sprinted well. They lost all their GC men. The whole tour is a big disaster, let's hope Millar or Martin or Zabriskie salvage some of it.

Omega Pharma. They had Martin, Chavanel and Leipheimer/Velits. All had some bad luck and are not doing so well. Maybe they should have brought Boonen to keep Sagan some company?

GreenEdge. No wins, but a lot of close seconds and thirds for Goss. Green may be difficult to accomplish.

Lampre. Scarponi, Petacchi, Hondo - all accomplished little.

Rabobank. What a disaster of a team. Gesink. Mollema. Ten Dam. Luis Leon. Renshaw.

Movistar - Valverde, Rui Costa, Karpets. Not doing so well. Let Kirienka go off the leash and into breakaways!

Europcar - not quite the team of 2011. Tommy Voeckler and Rolland are not doing so great. 

Argos-Shimano - whatever happened to Kittel? Veelers is ok but Kittel was the new young hope.

Every other team, especially french.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Kittel dropped out with massive fever or stomach issues or something.

AG2R has been pushing at breaks, but has come up short thus far.

I'd say the bright spot for OPQS is Chavanel.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

The carrots are big losers too, half the team is out due to crashes (yeah, not surprising), most importantly Sammy Sanchez...


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

thanks for starting this thread. 

the clear winner is sky. all around. wiggins stock is high, but froomes stock is on the rise. not sure what his contract looks like, but if continues through the Tour he may hit paydirt. 

sagan. i thought tour of california was a blip. i was wrong. his prologue was strong and he was able to grab a few stage wins. it may have been the guys shouting in his ear, but he was able to grab cancellaras wheel, something few can do, and tactically beat him. 

greipel. multiple wins is just what he needs.

losers?
garmin. crashes. lady luck is frowning on them. 

radioshack. what? they had yellow a full week! no, cancellara had the maillot jaune for a week. radioshack had drama even before the Tour started. 

tony martin. lady luck must think he rides for garmin.

sammy sanchez was injured from the start. his crash was painful.

cavendish. yes, he has a stage, but he also hit the deck pretty hard. and lost a few he would normally win. could this all be prep for the olympics? who knows. what i do know is his babys momma talks as much in the press as mrs. warner.

anyone involved with the us postal squad. lets just leave it at that.

and the final loser: the last two weeks of le Tour. like the 2011 giro, it is pretty much over before the first rest day. yes, something big can happen, but the odds are wiggins will win. the "drama" now is for second and third. can evans stay of the podium? it is a real possibility he could finish lower than third.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Sammy Sanchez's injury sucked! Watching him cry as his season unraveled was heartbreaking.

I really hope sky has some bad days to tighten up the top three a little.


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## MikeBiker (Mar 9, 2003)

foto said:


> Sammy Sanchez's injury sucked! Watching him cry as his season unraveled was heartbreaking.
> 
> I really hope sky has some bad days to tighten up the top three a little.


The Tour has just reached it's first rest day. The big mountain stages are still to come. All it takes is one climb on which Wiggins overextends himself and bonks for the standings to get competitive again.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Dan Gerous said:


> The carrots are big losers too, half the team is out due to crashes (yeah, not surprising), most importantly Sammy Sanchez...


Dan, that's true, after posting I realized I forgot about Euskaltel. But then again, they are often only minor players, and only come out to play for superlong climbs. I wouldn't expect them to do much this first week.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

55x11 said:


> Dan, that's true, after posting I realized I forgot about Euskaltel. But then again, they are often only minor players, and only come out to play for superlong climbs. I wouldn't expect them to do much this first week.


Except lose their leader, a universally liked star that often animates races, who will most likely not be at the olympics or the vuelta.

Speaking of:

Add the country of Spain to the list of losers. Almost their entire Olympic squad crashed out of the Tour with serious injuries.

Poor Freire, wont be able to contend his swan song in London.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

foto said:


> Except lose their leader, a universally liked star that often animates races, who will most likely not be at the olympics or the vuelta.
> 
> Speaking of:
> 
> Add the country of Spain to the list of losers. Almost their entire Olympic squad crashed out of the Tour with serious injuries.


Valverde is not doing well. Cobo is absent. Luis Leon crashed badly. 
Zubeldia is doing fine, exceeding my expectations.

It may be interesting to look at countries.
UK - fantastic, Wiggins, Froome, Cav.
Germany - Greipel good, Martin and Kittel bad. Voigt doing his job well. Kloden is struggling.
US - all terrible except for Van Garderen. Everyone else underperforms (Leipheimer, Horner, Farrar, Zabriskie, Vande Velde, Danielson). Hincapie plays a good left-tenant.
Italy - Nibali Ok. Help from Basso. Petacchi - too old.
France - all bad except for Pinot and Gallopin. No Voeckler, Rolland, Chavanel, Di Grigorio. Could have been much better.
Australia - Evans - Ok, I guess, but could have been much better. Goss - close second. We'll see about green. Renshaw - fail. I am much more impressed with Rogers and Porte on Sky than with Cooke, O'Grady, Gerrans and Goss on Green Edge.
Belgium - Gilbert MIA. Monfort and Van den Broeck are doing well, considering.
Netherlands - just terrible. Gesink, Ten Dam, Mollema, Veelers, Tankink, Hoogerland - no results to speak of.
Russia - bad, except for Menchov.
Denmark - Morkov good. Sorensen, Bak - nothing so far.

little countries - Slovakia (Sagan, Velits). Estonia (Taaramae), doing well. Luxemburg (both Schlecks) not so much. Ireland (Roche, Martin) - nothing to write home about.


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## MikeBiker (Mar 9, 2003)

55x11 said:


> Valverde is not doing well. Cobo is absent. Luis Leon crashed badly.
> Zubeldia is doing fine, exceeding my expectations.
> 
> It may be interesting to look at countries.
> ...


Don't forget Canada. Hesjedal's injuries may even keep him out of the Olympics.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

55x11 said:


> Valverde is not doing well. Cobo is absent. Luis Leon crashed badly.
> Zubeldia is doing fine, exceeding my expectations.
> 
> It may be interesting to look at countries.
> ...


So, Hinacpie rides pace at the front on a couple of flat stages, and he is "good" but Bak leading out lotto for Griepel's wins doesn't count for much, or Chavanels long distance attacks aren't worth mentioning?

hmmm...


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

weltyed said:


> anyone involved with the us postal squad. lets just leave it at that.


I wish the American riders involved would just give it up and go home. I would rather see P n P spend some time on the young guns from all over the world who are riding well in the tour then watch another segment of how the 'American riders' are doing.


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## roddjbrown (Jan 19, 2012)

I really don't think this is over. We knew Wiggins would take Evans in the time trials, that isn't a surprise. I actually wonder if yesterday took too much out of Wiggins, he looked horrible coming off the bike and come the mountains he might feel that TT in his legs when Evans or Nibali make their move. 

Interesting decision then for Sky will be whether to leave Froome tapping out the pace for Wiggo or make him follow the move (presuming he hasn't burnt too many matches himself).


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

Donning the cape of Captain Obvious, I have to point out that there is an awful lot of hard racing ahead. Many unforeseen things happened in the first week and many more are likely. Until Wiggo proves he can handle big mountain days, and we haven't really had one of those yet, this thing is still very much up for grabs.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Cofidis is one of the losers as of today:

Cofidis Hotel Raided on Rest Day


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

55x11 said:


> Valverde is not doing well. Cobo is absent. Luis Leon crashed badly.
> Zubeldia is doing fine, exceeding my expectations.
> 
> It may be interesting to look at countries.
> ...


I'm surprised to see Chavanel on the "bad" list. He has animated the race and both of his time trials were stellar.


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## troutmd (Sep 7, 2007)

So far everyone knows there is a long ways to go , AND a long TT after the mountains that favors Wiggins.

I won't be surprised if Shack sends Zubeldia et al off for a stage or two to see if Wiggins mental toughness is solid or shaky. Other teams [The enemy of my enemy is my friend] could join in on this fun with Nibali, Cadel, and Denny seeing the remaining mountain stages as their only real chance to defeat Wiggo mentally and/or with sizable time gains.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

foto said:


> So, Hinacpie rides pace at the front on a couple of flat stages, and he is "good" but Bak leading out lotto for Griepel's wins doesn't count for much, or Chavanels long distance attacks aren't worth mentioning?
> 
> hmmm...


I may give you Bak but I thought Henderson was the leadout.
Hincapie has a full time job to protect Cadel. Same goes for Voigt and Popo at the front working for Cancellara all day long.
Leadout for Henderson who will lead out for Greipel is a temp job. But fine, Bak is doing fantastic. 70% of peloton is, by that logic.

Late attacks of Chavanel don't get full credit until they actually stick. See Pinot.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

robdamanii said:


> I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Cofidis is one of the losers as of today:
> 
> Cofidis Hotel Raided on Rest Day


Ding Ding! 

Winner!

A French Judge sending a warrant for a French rider? Hmmmmmmmmmmm!


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

55x11 said:


> I may give you Bak but I thought Henderson was the leadout.
> Hincapie has a full time job to protect Cadel. Same goes for Voigt and Popo at the front working for Cancellara all day long.
> Leadout for Henderson who will lead out for Greipel is a temp job. But fine, Bak is doing fantastic. 70% of peloton is, by that logic.
> 
> Late attacks of Chavanel don't get full credit until they actually stick. See Pinot.


Just a little funny that Hincapie doing his job as a domestique puts him in the good list, but Chavanel going on the attack, taking risks, and animating races isn't good enough, since it didn't stick.

Go USA!


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

juno said:


> Ding Ding!
> 
> Winner!
> 
> A French Judge sending a warrant for a French rider? Hmmmmmmmmmmm!


Where are the mods? You mention doping in here once in the middle of February and the thread gets moved in < 1 hr.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

weltyed said:


> thanks for starting this thread.
> 
> the clear winner is sky. all around. wiggins stock is high, but froomes stock is on the rise. not sure what his contract looks like, but if continues through the Tour he may hit paydirt.
> 
> ...


agreed. especially about the last two weeks. But something unexpected will happen, or so I am hoping.

I realize Wiggins will hate this comparison, but so far the Tour does remind me of Postal days - domination in time trials and blistering pace in the mountains by a whole team (some of which could easily podium) preventing any attacks. This also turns tour into a bore.


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## grandprix (Jul 8, 2012)

troutmd said:


> I won't be surprised if Shack sends Zubeldia et al off for a stage or two to see if Wiggins mental toughness is solid or shaky.


There is quite a lot of climbing still left to do, but the only way Wiggins is going to lose is to crash or crack. And if he does I don't see Froome going down as well. Sky is hammering will be tough to attack.

If nothing else the strange hold they have on GC at the moment should provide the lower placed riders shots at awesome breakaways.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

You think it's impossible for wiggins to crack? I don't. He hasn't proven himself in the big mtn stages yet, though he is in the form of his life. Only time will tell.


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## c_h_i_n_a_m_a_n (Mar 3, 2012)

Very interesting to see how Wiggins performs in the mountains ... Go Wiggo ... Would like to Sky allowing Froome to go and attack when he feels ... though I cannot see that happening ...


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## grandprix (Jul 8, 2012)

Fireform said:


> You think it's impossible for wiggins to crack? I don't. He hasn't proven himself in the big mtn stages yet, though he is in the form of his life. Only time will tell.


No I think Wiggins could definitely crack. But I think the team is riding well enough they could afford to keep several riders around him and still let Froome go up the road, and he is a guy who can outclimb anyone near him on GC.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*penultimate flat, penultimate to penultimate flat*

just as wiggins became the next teen heart throb, and just as i called cadel 'old,' for being 3 yrs older than wiggins, i looked at the stage profiles again.

the penultimate day is a time trial (yes, you knew that).

the penultimate day to the penultimate day is a flat stage.

a flat stage favors the status quo. to buck that, you have to have a strong team.

a time trial favors a good time trialist.

wiggins has a strong team and is a good time trialist.

yes, i know there is a lot of road between now and then, and a lot of that road runs straight up the alps.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

I know Wiggo is off to the start of his dreams, but, maybe to counterweight all those ITT miles, the mountain stages are unusually brutal this year. Two stages open with back to back HC climbs--crack on any of those babies and it's a long fall through the standings for you.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Fireform said:


> You think it's impossible for wiggins to crack? I don't. He hasn't proven himself in the big mtn stages yet, though he is in the form of his life. Only time will tell.


I think that's right. And as much as I like Wiggins, I hope he does crack at least a little bit, otherwise it will be boring to watch.

Before the tour, I thought that Wiggins has not really proven to do well in 3 week tours, and 1-week tours are a whole different animal. At the same time, he is dominating mountains (plus his team) and the time trial by a wider margin than I expected, too. So now I don't know what to think, but my money is on him winning the Tour by a wide margin.

But to go against the conventional wisdom a little, maybe nothing really has changed, and as dominant as Wiggo was in the first week of racing, it doesn't mean he won't crack later. 

*Historic Evidence: *
After all, in *2011 Vuelta* he seemed safe to win the overall until he cracked in stage 15 (and he also lost a little bit to Cobo in Stage 14). He lost 1:40 on Angrilu and then another 40s on Pena Cabarga (the most exciting mountaintop finish I have ever seen in my life!). He had 1:40 over Cobo before stage 14 and ended up reversing it to 1:40 deficit to Cobo by stage 17. So people who don't think Wiggins can lose 3 minutes over a few mountain stages should look at history.

And in *2010 Giro* before stage 14 Wiggins was actually 3 minutes ahead of Nibali, Basso and Evans on GC. And what happened then? Wiggo lost 25 minutes on stage 15 (Zoncolan). 

In *2009 Tour *Wiggo lost more than in a minute to Contador in stage 15, more than 3 minutes to Contador and Schlecks on Treks in stage 17 and then another 43 seconds in time trial in stage 18. 

So he does have a bit of a history of starting super-strong and then suffering meltdown in the final week in the mountains. So even if he is leading by 5 minutes into the third week, I would keep on watching. Interesting stuff may happen.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Its hard to say judging by his past performances, since he just finished an unprecedented spring by winning Romandie, Paris-Nice, and the Dauphine. And he crashed out hard last year, which may, or may not, have had something to do with his form at the vuelta.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

55x11 said:


> I think that's right. And as much as I like Wiggins, I hope he does crack at least a little bit, otherwise it will be boring to watch.
> 
> Before the tour, I thought that Wiggins has not really proven to do well in 3 week tours, and 1-week tours are a whole different animal. At the same time, he is dominating mountains (plus his team) and the time trial by a wider margin than I expected, too. So now I don't know what to think, but my money is on him winning the Tour by a wide margin.
> 
> ...


All of this is true and Evans gets stronger through a GT. Wiggins is still certainly the favorite but the race isn't over.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*"it could happen to anybody."*

these comments, about why I should not quite bet my life savings on Wiggins now that 1/3 of the race is done, and we have barely seen mountains, are valid.

we are probably all b proven wrong.

however, the likelihood of things-not-going-well is there for every rider. even lance armstrong failed to win once. and whomever wants to win will have to overcome the time advantage that wiggins has now. sure, he can crack. so can anyone. he just has that minute-plus on his side right now, plus a few other favorable factors.


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## wtfbbq (Apr 5, 2012)

55x11 said:


> *Losers:*
> 
> Europcar - not quite the team of 2011. Tommy Voeckler and Rolland are not doing so great.


I agreed with your assessment. But what a difference a couple of stages make, huh?


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

wtfbbq said:


> I agreed with your assessment. But what a difference a couple of stages make, huh?


yes, I was just thinking the same thing watching today's stage.
Europcar seem to have recovered nicely and moved into "winners" stage.
Sky continue to dominate.
Evans and BMC are doing worse than first week - at this trajectory Evans won't get on podium and Van Garderen will lose white trying to nurse him back.
Valverde, Gesink, Menchov, Scarponi, etc. seem to be way off form.

I liked today's stage except for sad realization that it may be very boring second half of the Tour. I hope I am wrong.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

55x11 said:


> yes, I was just thinking the same thing watching today's stage.
> Europcar seem to have recovered nicely and moved into "winners" stage.
> Sky continue to dominate.
> Evans and BMC are doing worse than first week - at this trajectory Evans won't get on podium and Van Garderen will lose white trying to nurse him back.
> ...


old, injured, old, old.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Gesink abandonned... Menchov, the silent assassin, silently faded away, Valverde and Scarponi finally riding clean?


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