# Lets speculate about TTing and Climbing



## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

no question there are some strong performances

The following article is courtesy of cyclingnews ( I won't link it since their website blows ) it gives Alberto Contador's results. We all know Armstrong's results

I'm looking at the competition Alberto has had to ride against and although his placings are fantastic I just don't see him beating Lance in a TT. Lance has won 6 out of 7 ITTs in his tour pursuits - those he has won have earned him minutes although he gained his largest time on his rivals in the mountains 

He reminds me of Heras who could climb like the wind ( when he didn't have tendonitis ) and TT well enough to survive and win . . . sometimes 

Certainly the boy king can climb but then again Lance has never been dropped on a climb in the tdf. Even his bad days ( 2 days? ) he lost minimal time and being lighter than ever now climbing should be a strong asset 

Lance put minutes into Ullrich and Beloki, both of whom are tt masters. Landis, Millar, the same and all the rest. Hamilton was a great tter before the mess, Basso, Kloden, and others 

watching Versus today I noticed how much stronger Beloki got with each tdf. Maybe Contador will get faster in time but I still don't see him beating LA

age doesn't mean as much to guys who don't have a day job or their day job is riding a bike. Above all I think LA knows how to train better than anyone else aside from his natural talent. Contador has had to work harder to be a winner it seems. Just my 2cents

Here are Contadors results and remember who he was riding against 

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SNTT top10

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Astana) 1:04:40 
2 Luis León Sánchez Gil (Caisse d'Epargne) 0:00:37 
3 Rubén Plaza Molina (Liberty Seguros) 0:01:05 
4 Francisco Mancebo Pérez (Rock Racing) 0:01:46 
5 José Iván Gutiérrez (Caisse d'Epargne) 0:01:50 
6 Jonathan Castroviejo Nicolas (Orbea) 0:02:01 
7 Carlos Barredo Llamazales (Quick Step) 0:02:18 
8 Eloy Teruel Rovira (Contentpolis - Ampo) 0:02:20 
9 Xavier Tondo Volpini (Andalucia Cajasur) 0:02:41 
10 Arkaitz Durán Daroca (Fuji-Servetto)

Spaniard claims national time trial title

Spaniard Alberto Contador sent a strong message to his Tour de France rivals on Friday when he blasted to his national time trial championship victory: in short, it read, "I'm ready".

The Astana rider powered through the 47.8km course in 1:04:40, putting in an heroic effort over the final 20km to reverse a one-second deficit to Caisse d'Epargne's Luis León Sánchez. By the finish line, Contador had pulled out an extra 37 seconds for good measure to claim the right to wear his national colours at the opening stage of the Tour de France in Monaco on July 4.

The race was the final test for Contador before the Tour, and a last chance to put his new prototype Trek TTX time trial bike through the rigors. It is clear that both passed with flying colours.

For a rider who was happy to crack the top ten in time trials even in the year he won the Tour de France, Contador's improvements in the discipline have been nothing short of remarkable.

His best result in the race against the clock in 2007 was a second place in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. On the way to taking home the maillot jaune in the Tour that year, Contador was 15th in the prologue, sixth in the stage 13 test and fifth on the penultimate stage which was good enough to keep the overall lead.

In 2008, Contador showed improvements in this area, taking 2nd, 4th and 11th in time trials in the Giro d'Italia on his way to the overall victory. After placing fourth in the Olympic Games TT, he went on to show a decided improvement in the Vuelta a Espana, claiming second and fourth in the two individual tests.

This year, his skills in the art of suffering alone have brought him to the top of the results sheet on now four separate occasions and over a variety of distances.

In February, he bested French TT champ Sylvain Chavanel on the way to the win in the 33.7km Tour of Algarve TT. In March, he stunned the cycling world by beating Olympic pursuit champion Bradley Wiggins on a flat and fast 9.8km course to claim the first stage of Paris-Nice.

Later in April Contador won over 24km in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, and Friday he flew to the win over 47.8km.

With two individual time trials awaiting him in the Tour - one of15km in Moncao next week, and one of 40km on the Tour's final week - Contador has shown he has the strength and versatility to succeed over any distance and will be not just limiting his losses, but gaining time on his rivals.

The only question that remains is who will be better and claim the right to be team leader - Contador or Lance Armstrong?


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## brentster (Jul 12, 2007)

I never thought of a 135 pounder as being a TT juggernaut. Pretty cool.


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

*Uncharted territory*

_Speculation_ in the Pro Cycling forum? Do we dare?


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## btinder (Aug 25, 2007)

CARBON110 said:


> Know question there are some strong performances
> 
> The following article is courtesy of cyclingnews ( I won't link it since their website blows ) it gives Alberto Contador's results. We all know Armstrong's results
> 
> ...


Suuuuuch a long post man : )

Good diagnosis though.

We'll have to see. I thought Lance's biggest obstacle would be his ability to recover over the course of a three-week race, but he actually improved over the Giro, so it looks like it won't be a big issue.

Contador is such a talent, but Lance is no slouch in the ability department and has tactical know-how and experience on his side. Before Lance came back he looked at the times for the Tours he's been away, and saw they were all won by much slower times then his wins, even Contadors. I wouldn't put too much stock in that observation because anything can happen in a race but I imagine Lance is aware of Contador's ability and he believes he can win. 

Its gonna be fuuuuun to watch.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

The only things you missed: Lance hasn't trained competitively for the Tour for over 3 years and also had a setback before the Giro with something called a collarboney fracturitis :wink:


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Just curious, but when did Lance last win a TT? I honestly don't remember, anyone?


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## Nimitz (Jul 8, 2004)

SilasCL said:


> Just curious, but when did Lance last win a TT? I honestly don't remember, anyone?


2005 final time trial of the TdF, he finished 2nd in the prologue to david Z

hes won 11 time trials out of his 22 stage wins and 3 team time trials.

It'll be interesting to see how he does against Fabian Cancellara with his dominating win @ the Tour De Suisse....he beat Tony Martin by 1:25, and Dekkar was 2+ mins back....I can't wait for this years Tour to start..going to be DRAMA!

Chad


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

You know, Lance in his best form, against Fabian Cancellara.... I've always wondered who'd win. 

Flat out course: FC maybe. 

Anything less flat: LA

IMO that is. Maybe not of course. But damn, I really wish Lance was at his best just so I can get the answer to a question I've had for sometime now.

//Did LA race the TT WC before? I'm sure he'd have won a couple of times at least had he done so right?


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

contadors national TT competitors werent all that great, really. at least not in the TT discipline. so you expect him to win if he is gonna compete in the tour. it would be more of a challenge for him to win the spanish national road champions jersey.

dont forget, LA was (supposedly)targeting the giro before the collar bone incident. that setback just lined him up to peak during le tour instead.

i still think astana is gonna try to go for the GT cycle, starting with this tour. 2009 tour, vuelta, and 2010 giro, tour, vuelta. i expect to see horner at the vuelta (if something doesnt happen to one of the selected riders this week).

it will be interesting to see how this all plays out. hindsight is 20/20, so i look forward to revisiting this after the season is over.


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

QUOTE: "Before Lance came back he looked at the times for the Tours he's been away, and saw they were all won by much slower times then his wins, even Contadors."

That's not true. On the benchmark climbs like Col d'Aubisque Contador's times were faster than Armstrong's (just ask David Walsh).


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

Walsh has a big axe to grind but who cares

this was published a few days ago and is an interesting insight 

http://www.smh.com.au/news/sport/ar...-joke-of-a-tour/2009/06/26/1245961404480.html

interesting interpretation and quite a bit of arrogance but look at objectively - it certainly spins the antagonism/competition thing. Of course some clever editing can do that too

Alberto did say it will be settled on the bike, lets let the legs settle it or something a week ago - Alberto also seems to use the press as his publicist "I'm ready" thing 

the only set back I can see is the collarbone break - that could have set back training for quite a bit but I think given LA's training program and Chris C. help comparing his watts/endurance to Tours past - Lance is there to win and it will be in the mountains all the way to Ventoux 

there seems little love between the two - I think that can be confirmed by the fact they have not raced together or trained together

LA is riding the tour mountains right now so that should tell us something 

look forward to it! 

great discussion by the way, I really enjoy the different perspectives here


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

Jesse D Smith said:


> _Speculation_ in the Pro Cycling forum? Do we dare?


Yeah but it would be nice for once if it didn't involve Lance and Contador.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

uzziefly said:


> //Did LA race the TT WC before? I'm sure he'd have won a couple of times at least had he done so right?



No, but he tried a couple times. Same with they Olympics.


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## btinder (Aug 25, 2007)

stevesbike said:


> QUOTE: "Before Lance came back he looked at the times for the Tours he's been away, and saw they were all won by much slower times then his wins, even Contadors."
> 
> That's not true. On the benchmark climbs like Col d'Aubisque Contador's times were faster than Armstrong's (just ask David Walsh).


I'm talking about times overall. The TdF has been raced slower since "the Lance Years."


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

LA also has become risk averse. Look at the giro at how he wasnt interested in risking harm to himself on the TTs and the whole crit course fiasco. No doubt a lot of that comes from wanting to return alive to his family. Certainly cant blame him there.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

Am I really hearing this? What is wrong with you people. In a TT without some significant climbing, Cancellara can crush anyone. Are you seriously thinking Lance has a chance against him? I would bet my house that Monaco goes to the Swiss flag skinsuit.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

FC is going to rule the road in Manaco. No doubt about it.. Watching him win the Swiss tour drives that nail home. 

However.. How will be survive after 20 stages going into that last TT? Lance might have the advantage there. 

No matter what.. this year the tour is going to be crazy.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*question*



uzziefly said:


> The only things you missed: Lance hasn't trained competitively for the Tour for over 3 years and also had a setback before the Giro with something called a collarboney fracturitis :wink:


GREAt analysis, but what do you folks think about a climb like Ventoux being stuck so far near the end near paris?


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

CARBON110 said:


> The following article is courtesy of cyclingnews ( I won't link it since their website blows ) it gives Alberto Contador's results.
> 
> 
> > If I decide you blow can I come by and steal some stuff off you?


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

gh1 said:


> Am I really hearing this? What is wrong with you people. In a TT without some significant climbing, Cancellara can crush anyone. Are you seriously thinking Lance has a chance against him? I would bet my house that Monaco goes to the Swiss flag skinsuit.


have you seen the profile? It's a 4th category climb


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

32and3cross said:


> CARBON110 said:
> 
> 
> > The following article is courtesy of cyclingnews ( I won't link it since their website blows ) it gives Alberto Contador's results.
> ...


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

.....


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

any guesses as to what mountain stage the first showdown will occur?

anyone watch velonews tv on the subject?


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Levi could probably take the last ITT IMO too. 

Lance used to be around 490W at his peak form in the Tours of the past. He was under 400 based on what someone mentioned (not sure how true) before the Giro (leading to it) so I doubt he'll come anywhere near that 7W/kg figure he used to be having before.

Sure, he's lost some weight when compared to before. But that also means less power too. And I don't think the lesser weight makes up his power to weight ratio enough to be as high as it was before.

He'll be good enough for a top 10 finish for sure IMO. Top 5? Possible. Wait, what the hell am I saying?

Back to the TT: Not strong enough to take it but will be up there in the top few times.

Climbing: Oh yes, that's why I mentioned power to weight. Not high enough to take time away from Contador perhaps. 

//I do hope I'm wrong honestly. So let's see.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

CARBON110 said:


> 32and3cross said:
> 
> 
> > CARBON110 said:
> ...


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

Uzzie,

I haven't been following much of cycling but from what I read LA's watts are close to what they use to be. In one training week his numbers jumped 50+ watts from some videos I watched of him training in Austin with CC. It's vague but it was something like that and that was months ago

I jumped on his videos website off of livestrong and nearly all of them are in the mountains and this week he is riding several tour mtn stages. I don't know if that tells us anything but it sounds like he has spent a lot of time riding hills

http://www.livestrong.com/lance-armstrong/videos/


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## ping771 (Apr 10, 2006)

CARBON110 said:


> Uzzie,
> 
> I haven't been following much of cycling but from what I read LA's watts are close to what they use to be. In one training week his numbers jumped 50+ watts from some videos I watched of him training in Austin with CC. It's vague but it was something like that and that was months ago
> 
> ...


 Quote: "I don't know if that tells us anything but it sounds like he has spent a lot of time riding hills". That's an understatement if I ever heard one. We, non-professional recreational riders/racers, ride hills. Lance and his contemporaries ride "mountains."


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## mtbbmet (Apr 2, 2005)

gh1 said:


> I would bet my house that Monaco goes to the Swiss flag skinsuit.


I'll take that bet.
And I'll make you another that says the Swiss skinsuit is nowhere near Monaco on Saturday. Say your mom's house?
So if the Swiss champ fails to make the start I own your house, and your mothers. If he does start, and does not win, I just get your house. Kay?


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

No one has won a GT at Armstrong's current age. Not one win in over 200 editions (all 3 counted).

With that in mind, I think it's safe to say Armstrong won't dominate the TTs. He'll be above average to be sure, but he could very well be 4th just on Astana, as Contador will be flying, Levi can of course TT well, and Kloeden is a great TTer as well, and younger than Armstrong by about 5 years.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

since when have we learned anything from history 


I think he has it in him - I think he is riding to kick ass not follow wheels - he is an American and a Texan to boot 

no one has previously won 7 tours either and until recently riders retired at a fairly early age

CAN'T WAIT!


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## tbgtbg (Mar 13, 2009)

CARBON110 said:


> since when have we learned anything from history
> I think he has it in him - I think he is riding to kick ass not follow wheels - he is an American and a Texan to boot
> no one has previously won 7 tours either and until recently riders retired at a fairly early age
> CAN'T WAIT!


Well, I can't wait either and I hope LA can kick arsss... but, as others have mentioned here, I think the big problem with him will be recovery. Being younger certainly does help in that department. However, I suspect he knows this and will ride smart and will be competitive.


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## arshak (Jun 13, 2005)

32and3cross said:


> CARBON110 said:
> 
> 
> > 32and3cross said:
> ...


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

CARBON110 said:


> Uzzie,
> 
> I haven't been following much of cycling but from what I read LA's watts are close to what they use to be. In one training week his numbers jumped 50+ watts from some videos I watched of him training in Austin with CC. It's vague but it was something like that and that was months ago
> 
> ...


I also read that actually. But I also posted what I heard too. So, that's why I'm a little unsure.

Either way, whether he's at his best or not, he'll be the best he can be on such short notice and after a setback that's for damn sure. And it'll be better than a lot of people's best too fwiw.

It's just whether he's gunning for the overall or, if he's riding in support (if he's not in contention after the key stages). 

But he'll be near the front group or perhaps even in all the select groups till very near the end for sure.


I hope he's in great form actually. It'll be nice to watch indeed. IMO that is.


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## arshak (Jun 13, 2005)

One word to refute your logic : Longo


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

arshak said:


> One word to refute your logic : Longo


What?


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## mtbbmet (Apr 2, 2005)

arshak said:


> One word to refute your logic : Longo


 Yup.
She'll have another 15 national titles by the time she turns 60.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

32and3cross said:


> CARBON110 said:
> 
> 
> > 32and3cross said:
> ...


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## Jesse D Smith (Jun 11, 2005)

kbiker3111 said:


> Yeah but it would be nice for once if it didn't involve Lance and Contador.


Many are more comfortable with the easy National Enquirer speculation. Little or no racing insight is necessary.


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## deltasierra (Aug 9, 2008)

uzziefly said:


> Lance used to be around 490W at his peak form in the Tours of the past. He was under 400 based on what someone mentioned (not sure how true) before the Giro (leading to it) so I doubt he'll come anywhere near that 7W/kg figure he used to be having before.


Linky/Source please.


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## pedalruns (Dec 18, 2002)

I am not a Lance fan... but I've been following him since he was a kid and beat professional tri guys (it is hard not to follow LA being from the same town he grew up in).... 

You guys are under estimating his competitive drive, his need to win, his need for power, his EGO... I don't care how old he is, what history tells us.... love or hate LA... this is perfect for him, all the people telling him he is to old, etc., he is feeding off this big time.... 

LA and Contador are going to be in an all out war for the top step in Paris... whether LA can overcome him, who knows... I think it will be very close.


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