# Tour Stage 4: 214.5k



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

Well, look has continued his winning ways? After his performance at the Tour of California I thought Sagan would be both tired and out-performed at his first Tour. So far he has not made any mistakes. Yes, he didn't win in the true sprint of Stage 2, but only one can win a stage like that...
I haven't seen teh stage, but it sounds like there was some good racing near the end. The parcours looked a bit sketchy, and with precipitation it could have been pretty bad. All in all, there hasn't been much pavement surfing this Tour. There was some today, along with a few abandons, but we are 4 days in...

Stage 4 is 140k alongt the coast. If there is wind out of the west there could be some eschelons before they hit that turn inland and head East just before the sprint. If a group gets away before then, and it is windy from the west, they could possibly survive, especially with tailwinds. But I'm not Tom Skilling, so I won't rely on atmospheric conditions for predictions.

It is a tad bumpy, with a short wall 12k from the finish. Here is where the question of Cavendish's ability to stick with an accelerating uphill peloton comes into play. I think there is enough road between the rise at 143k to the next big rise before the finish. It looks like a falseflat, but i imagine he will be tucked away in there. If the lead in to the finish is serpentine, Sagan could make it two in a row. That would be three stages in five career tour stage starts (including the prologue.) If you don't count the prologue, it would be three stages out of four. 

There is always Goss, Boss, Chavanel and Gilbert.

But with this looking like a more standard sprint stage, and that points to Cavendish. If you look at the following days, Cavendish might have a chance at getting three in a row. Or he saves his matches today to get the next two and gives this stage to teammate Boassen Hagen.

Or Cancellara decides he needs to solo from about 20k out.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

For a minute I thought the breakaway might stay away for this one but I've changed my mind. 

I'm going to go with Greipel again. His team is working together very well for him and I think he wants it the most.


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## Drummerboy1975 (Mar 14, 2012)

Sagan all the way.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

I'll go with Cav


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## superjesus (Jul 26, 2010)

Every time that I don't pick Sagan, he wins. I want to go with Cav, but...

Screw it, I'm going with Cav.


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## Sylint (Jul 27, 2009)

I'll say Farrar...only because it's the 4th of July.

But I really doubt that will actually happen.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

The coast road is winding and narrow, similar to today's carnage-inducing road. 

But once they turn inland, it's a nice 2-lane highway all the way, not much in the way of undulations, and a bit of downhill run into Rouen.

Cavendish.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

There isn't anyone who has proven they can match the second acceleration Cav has in a sprint. Cav FTW. Greipel will turn himself inside out to try though.


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## EuroSVT (Sep 15, 2011)

Damn...Liquigas has to wear those horrible yellow helmets now?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

EuroSVT said:


> Damn...Liquigas has to wear those horrible yellow helmets now?


I don't mind them. I like the leading team standing out a bit more.


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## EuroSVT (Sep 15, 2011)

I stand corrected, who is leading in team classification? One source says Sky, one says Liquigas


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

letour.fr says Sky is leading. Since they are the official site, I'd guess they are correct. They say Radio Shack is second, 4 seconds behind. Liquigas is in fifth, 29 seconds behind.


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## allison (Apr 19, 2006)

Cav, with Farrar getting boxed out, just off the podium, and Sagan (sadly, again) not looking comfortable in a Tour bunch sprint. He will figure it out, just not today (er, tomorrow, as it were).


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*cav - who will just continue on to london*

cav - who will just continue on to london


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

With a train, I'd say Cav. I'm going with Griepel because having a train pulling him up that hill and driving the pace really high with the down sloped finished *should* make a difference. Still, Griepel should hope Cav gets stuck behind the peloton.


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

Drummerboy1975 said:


> Sagan all the way.


I'm going with Sagan too.


Mainly because there's a climb and a descend before the flat finish. Sagan will take care of that way better than Cav. can.


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## Chainstay (Mar 13, 2004)

I would be thrilled to see Cav surf another one but I'm going with Matthew Harley Goss for this one


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

It looks tailor made for the 2011 Gilbert but he's not 100%. Im hoping the new lighter Cav can get over the hump and win.
The bump at 202km is far enough away that the trains can catch anyone trying to get away, unless it's Cancellara.
Greipel's team is focussed on him but he still got beat in a straight up one on one with Cav. Sure he wants it but I don't think he has the speed to get it. 
Seriously I'd pick Sagan again. Daniel Oss is a great leadout for Sagan and a good sprinter himself.


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Oh, what the hell...Frank Schleck.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

Cavendish should take this one. But I'll be pulling for Greipel.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

Isn't that yellow helmet thing confusing?

Race Leader is in yellow WITH yellow helmet.

They either forbid the yellow jersey to wear a yellow helmet or make the lead team wear a different colour.

Riders behind in the peloton may see the yellow helmets and not know if that's the race leader or the leader team.

Not that it's a very important point or cause too much confusion, but it'd be nice to make a clear distinction.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Weather on the coast: Light wind from SW (so not off the sea). Not a big chance of echelons ripping the bunch apart.

If you look at the percentages of the categorised climbs (not a lot), then that lump at the end is wildly exaggerated by the profile. It's only 4, the peloton will hardly notice it.

Bunch sprint.

... Cav.


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

No wind today, so no echelons along the coast. Pretty chopper shots should compensate, though. Small roads are pretty, and brake blocks will wear thin also today.

Cav will get over that hill like he got over the Poggio a couple of years ago. Lotto-Belisol could dedicate a rider to defend Greipel's rear wheel in the sprint. He'd need to be tough and strong to bump away the comers. though.

Not Sagan today, but he'll be closer than on Monday. Fast learner, that boy.
Greipel.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

il sogno said:


> Cavendish should take this one. But I'll be pulling for Greipel.


It will be sad if Van Denbrouk is on good form this year and gets zero support from Lotto because they built this train that Greipel can't seem to utilize.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

burgrat said:


> Oh, what the hell...Frank Schleck.


Didn't you hear...Frank had a press conference this morning before the start and said he shouldn't be expected to win the stage today. He is not on top form due to the Giro.


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## KenS (Jan 28, 2004)

I think that Cav has the Harry Potter cloak of invisibility tactic worked out and will appear on the front again today.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Oscarito! Chances are slim, but I like the guy.


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Today's a long, fairly boring stage so far. The landscape along the coast is incredible though, especially in HD. They really do a phenomenal job of showcasing the French countryside. 
It would be awesome if Arashiro and the break stayed away. Japan would go nuts.
Not going to happen though. The peloton will reel them in and it'll be Cav. I hope Sagan gives it a shot against Cav.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Cav took the intermediate sprint again? Wow, maybe he is going for green.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Wowza there was a crash.... and there went all the stage predictions


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Goss looked off yet again. Looks like Griepel is Cav's only real challenge on the flat sprints.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

So they figured out how to beat Cav. Don't let him finish. Bad luck. Greipel looked good. Glad to see him win. Sagan quite obviously has a lot to learn about bunch sprints. Terrible position and he doesn't have the power to overcome eight places down. Goss was flat too.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Cav looks pissed


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

gusmahler said:


> Cav looks pissed


Not sure what pissed him off more. Crashing, or having his own personal camera escort to the line.


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## roddjbrown (Jan 19, 2012)

Cav's girlfriend is complaining on twitter about sky not protecting cav. sounds like he's been complaining at home...


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Gee whiz. 

Crash bang boom.

Hope no one was seriously hurt. 

I'm sure Greipel was happy to not play lead out man again...


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## a_avery007 (Jul 1, 2008)

*well, there*

goes the neighborhood.

Good for Lotto, they did a great job for Greipel.

but, Cav would have been there and most likely came around for the win.

don't know who took him out nor have i figured out how Sagan stayed upright..

stay tuned...


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

roddjbrown said:


> Cav's girlfriend is complaining on twitter about sky not protecting cav. sounds like he's been complaining at home...


He has no room to complain. He could have chosen any team he wanted. He chose a team going for Yellow. I'm sure Rabobank (Renshaw's team) and Orica Green Edge (Goss's team) would have loved to have him on their team.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

I think Cav has a point. It's surprising to see how little support Sky is giving him. Just strange seeing the World Champion getting no help at all to stay safe. Perhaps Sky and Cav should have worked that out before they signed him? You either build a team of big power guys to win sprint stages in grand tours, like HTC or bring mostly climbers to compete general classification.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

And really, it was just bad luck. He actually had at least one other Sky guy with him, possibly two (not sure if Eisel was still there). Sagan didn't have protection, was right next to Cav, and happend to make it through.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Eisel was there, he crashed too.

Sky's goal was to win the Tour... They said it when starting the team (goal then was to win the Tour with a british rider within 5 years), it's never been a secret and with this year's route being Wiggins' best chance, Cav, and his wife, should have known better. And having a whole team dedicated to him has not prevented Cav to crash in the past... he even caused massive crashes himself. But what does Peta know? She's not a directeur sportif, she's a wife and mother, she's wrong to be mad at Sky, but her reaction's understandable...

Did Sagan just bounced a flying bike off with his body before swerving to avoid crashing? He's been called Chuck Norris by teammates before, now Terminator...


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

Aren't the Sky guys supposed to protect Wiggins, the captain and highest GC ranked?

Well, at least they could have send two guys and Wiggins would still have had 4 guys with him.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Ridin'Sorra said:


> Aren't the Sky guys supposed to protect Wiggins, the captain and highest GC ranked?
> 
> Well, at least they could have send two guys and Wiggins would still have had 4 guys with him.


As pointed out above, Cav did have 2 guys with him.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

gusmahler said:


> As pointed out above, Cav did have 2 guys with him.


Than what is he complaining about? He's not the captain.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

He's not complaining. His girlfriend is.


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## superjesus (Jul 26, 2010)

AdamM said:


> I think Cav has a point. It's surprising to see how little support Sky is giving him. Just strange seeing the World Champion getting no help at all to stay safe. Perhaps Sky and Cav should have worked that out before they signed him? You either build a team of big power guys to win sprint stages in grand tours, like HTC or bring mostly climbers to compete general classification.


Allow me to respond with an exerpt from a VeloNews article about the final Stage 2 sprint.



VeloNews said:


> “The chance to help the team win the Tour is something special,” Cavendish said. “I know I can still win stages without a full train. I’ve done it before and I’ve shown it again.”
> 
> In fact, Cavendish waved off the two riders who are designated to help him in the sprints during this Tour. With about 5km to go, he read the race and decided he didn’t need the help of Bernard Eisel and Edvald Boasson Hagen.


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

she has big cans, so he can complain all she wants IMHO


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Sounds like maybe it was Bernie going down first that took Cav out, so it could've been the people that Sky had protecting him that were his downfall.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*someone*

kind of undercut Robbie Hunter
I couldn't tell who it was but that was the start of it

Sadly I predicted Griepel in the wrong thread, this was the one I thought he'd win, yesterday was too hilly for the pure sprinters


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

atpjunkie said:


> Sadly I predicted Griepel in the wrong thread, this was the one I thought he'd win, yesterday was too hilly for the pure sprinters


Well, this is the first time I made a prediction this year and picked Griepel. I don't think Cav would have gone down if he had a train. I remain confused over why Cav went to Sky, except they they offered him big $$s.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

AJL said:


> Well, this is the first time I made a prediction this year and picked Griepel. I don't think Cav would have gone down if he had a train. I remain confused over why Cav went to Sky, except they they offered him big $$s.


Well, there it is. What's to be confused about?


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Eisel crashed with Cav. Bossen Hagen finished in the top 10 and Michael Rogers also made it past the accident. That means there were 3 Sky riders with Cav. Why do people keep saying he had no support?


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