# Predictions!!! Who gets busted for doping in 2009?



## Bry03cobra (Oct 31, 2006)

Who do you think will get snagged this season? Predictions!!!


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

Greg Lemond


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## Digger28 (Oct 9, 2008)

Good thread actually. 
No way can I see Lance or Alberto getting done. Too well organised with their resources.
My predictions for getting busted:
Menchov
Frank Schleck
Samuel Sanchez
Ballan
Pozzato
David Arroyo
Nibali
Kim Kirchen
Valverde

Couldn't be bothered gettting into a debate with anyone about these riders...The thread heading asked for predictions, so there's mine!!!


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## Bry03cobra (Oct 31, 2006)

I kinda think somebody from SaxoBank will go down. One of the Schleck boys or Fabian C.


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## Digger28 (Oct 9, 2008)

Bry03cobra said:


> I kinda think somebody from SaxoBank will go down. One of the Schleck boys or Fabian C.


Yeah I have a serious suspicion myself against Fabian, so yeah, I'd add his name. I honestly think there were riders from CSC who had signs of blood doping in the 08 Tour, but for various reasons, were never prosecuted.


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## F1nut (Nov 28, 2008)

-Pharmstrong may be limited but not busted

-Pharmstrong will try to use supplements like 
androstenedione and androstenediol. He'll use the testosterone he has prescrip and use exempton for. I would love to see Catlin suceed in runing an IRMS test on pharmstrong but Lance will just run away from the testing control. Catlin's tests mean nothing, they are immaterial; just like Pharmstrong's 5 positive EPO's from 1999. 

-Blood testing is done right before blood doping. Afterwards, its called bleeding. 

-Some without undetectable epo might go down.

-Corticoids are limited. 

_90-99.8%_ of the field will try to use their own blood like they did last year. Total blood volume carbon menoxide would stop this but not bust many. IF there is announced CO2 testing one must have an IQ colder than the fridge their blood is in. Performance Values down the toilet if they stop the blood refills and the human exact epo. Imagining Basso could cleanly come 42:30 on Alp D'Huez rider at the back of the pack would have times 50-55 minutes. Pharmstrong would really struggle to make it totally clean. Maybe 50th-80th really gutting it if he can still get up to 82 VO2 max and 380 watts FTP.

But no. It wont stop. The winner will have about 6 watts per kilo. 










Positives might be similar to this year, or less. Improvement in testing make people simply stop doing it.


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

Digger28 said:


> Yeah I have a serious suspicion myself against Fabian, so yeah, I'd add his name. I honestly think there were riders from CSC who had signs of blood doping in the 08 Tour, but for various reasons, were never prosecuted.


Curious, what brought about the suspicion for FC?


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## Digger28 (Oct 9, 2008)

function said:


> Curious, what brought about the suspicion for FC?


Three riders, some say four, were part of the batch of suspicious samples to be re-tested after the 08 Tour. The riders were Cancellara, Stuart O'Grady, Frank Schleck and some even say Jens. Nobody can tell me that Fabian's performances in the mountains, where he dropped noted climbers, was natural. How many mountain passes did he ride tempo for kilometre after kilometre...impressive stuff from such a bulky rider.


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## WeakMite (Feb 20, 2005)

José Rujano
Egoi Martínez
David Millar
Samuel Dumoulin
Denis Menchov
David López García


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## Exciton (Aug 8, 2008)

The entire Astana team 
... or at least Pharmstrong (well, more a hope than an expectation)


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

Digger28 said:


> Three riders, some say four, were part of the batch of suspicious samples to be re-tested after the 08 Tour. The riders were Cancellara, Stuart O'Grady, Frank Schleck and some even say Jens. Nobody can tell me that Fabian's performances in the mountains, where he dropped noted climbers, was natural. How many mountain passes did he ride tempo for kilometre after kilometre...impressive stuff from such a bulky rider.


Thanks for the clarification, regarding the tempo riding in the 08 TDF, i figure that is within his capabilities since he's at about 5.4W/kg (at 83kg) for an hour (i personally know non doped elite amateurs who are 5W/kg at 80kg), he shelled himself that day and we never saw him the rest of the tour. 5.4W/kg+ tempo will shell a lot of fatiguing pros in a tour.


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## Digger28 (Oct 9, 2008)

function said:


> Thanks for the clarification, regarding the tempo riding in the 08 TDF, i figure that is within his capabilities since he's at about 5.4W/kg (at 83kg) for an hour (i personally know non doped elite amateurs who are 5W/kg at 80kg), he shelled himself that day and we never saw him the rest of the tour. 5.4W/kg+ tempo will shell a lot of fatiguing pros in a tour.


He shelled himself that day? He shelled, to use your word, day after day. It wasn't just the Alpe d'Huez stage. And when have you seen Fabian doing that previously? It just doesn't make sense for Fabian to be able to suddenly do this, at this stage of his career.
A DS, think it was Marc Sergeant of Lotto, who also commented on how bizarre this was.


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## crit_specialist (Mar 21, 2008)

*another small racer: Hilton Clarke*

My doping pick:
Hilton Clarke

How is Hilton Clarke going to get results riding for FUJI-SERVETTO?

About Cancellara and F. Schleck: I hope that they are satisfied with the achievements they have already earned and don't try to repeat the doping program they might have been on in the past. Hopefully they will take a page out of the Dave Z book and just have a few dud years to average out the great years.


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## F1nut (Nov 28, 2008)

function said:


> Thanks for the clarification, regarding the tempo riding in the 08 TDF, i figure that is within his capabilities since he's at about 5.4W/kg (at 83kg) for an hour (i personally know non doped elite amateurs who are 5W/kg at 80kg), he shelled himself that day and we never saw him the rest of the tour. 5.4W/kg+ tempo will shell a lot of fatiguing pros in a tour.



There is no way in F that the rest of that CSC team sat around while Sastre had his IV drip going and then went to take his blood-refill in the morning. Sastre went quicker up Alp D'Huez then he did in 2004 scouting for Alien Basso. 

Cancellara can hold 50k's at his FTP on a dead flat road with no wind, maybe even quicker based on his past TT's. EVEN in the illegal superman position, thats 412 watts. On a Triatholon bike, thats a MASSIVE 537 watts. And thats assuming 50. Maybe were talking more like 52, so thats now 600 watts on a Tri Bike and 460 in the SuperMan position. And that is WITH NO WIND AT ALL AND NO HILLS. 

I have Cancellera averaging 49.6 km/hr on a hilly final TT with two-450 foot hills, 1.5 miles long.
There is NO WAY he did 480 watts without a blood-fill and wacky heart stimulant drugs.


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

Digger28 said:


> He shelled himself that day? He shelled, to use your word, day after day. It wasn't just the Alpe d'Huez stage. And when have you seen Fabian doing that previously? It just doesn't make sense for Fabian to be able to suddenly do this, at this stage of his career.
> A DS, think it was Marc Sergeant of Lotto, who also commented on how bizarre this was.


I don't know whether he doped and don't intend on convincing anyone otherwise. I just want to make the point that there is nothing magical about climbing, if a rider (big or small) has the power to weight ratio, they'll climb well, just because someone is heavy it doesn't mean they can't climb, they just have a lesser chance of winning since there tend to be more lighter riders with better power/weight ratios to contest the win. Most riders will ride their strengths and FC certainly would have trouble _winning_ a mountain stage.

How come no one commented about his TT wins last year? The power requirements to climb at that tempo and his average speed from those TTs are very similar. Also note how he couldn't keep up that temp until the end of the stages, note his finishing times in all the mountain stages, he eventually exploded and fell off the back.

Stage 10: The climb to Hautacam
At the base of Hautacam, 24 riders are chasing Remy de Gregorio:
* Evans, Silence-Lotto
* Sastre, Cancellara, A. Schleck, F. Schleck, Voigt, CSC-Saxo Bank
* Kirchen, Columbia
* Duenas Nevado, Barloworld
* Nibali, Liquigas
* Fothen and Kohl, Gerolsteiner
* Menchov and Freire, Rabobank
* Ricco, Cobo and Piepoli, Saunier Duval
* Vande Velde, Garmin-Chipotle
* Astarloza, Euskaltel-Euskadi
* Dupont, Efimkin and Goubert, AG2R
* Roy, Française des Jeux
* Duque, Cofidis

Cancellara and Voigt are quickly dropped.

And here is a quick summary;

Stage 1: 16th 
Stage 2: 64th, pack finish
Stage 3: 81st, 2minutes down
Stage 4: 5th, clearly he held back, look at who put time on him
1. Stefan Schumacher, Gerolsteiner, Germany, 35:44
2. Kim Kirchen, Columbia, Luxembourg, 36:02
3. David Millar, Garmin-Chipotle, Great Britain, 36:02.53
4. Cadel Evans, Silence-Lotto, Australia, 36:11
5. Fabian Cancellara, CSC-Saxo Bank, Switzerland, 36:17.22

Stage 5: 112th, pack finish
Stage 6: 105th, 13minutes down
Stage 7: 100th, 10minutes down
Stage 8: 84th, pack finish
Stage 9: 89th, 16minutes down
Stage 10: 49th, 16minutes down
Stage 11: 105th, 15minutes down
Stage 12: 26th, pack finish
Stage 13: 104th, pack finish
Stage 14: 24th, pack finish
Stage 15: 104th, 21minutes down
Stage 16: 84th, 24minutes down
Stage 17: 47th, 22minutes down
Stage 18: 134th, 7minutes down
Stage 19: 135th, 3minutes down
Stage 20: 2nd, TT lost by 21seconds
Stage 21: 13th, pack finish


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

F1nut said:


> Cancellara can hold 50k's at his FTP on a dead flat road with no wind, maybe even quicker based on his past TT's. EVEN in the illegal superman position, thats 412 watts. On a Triatholon bike, thats a MASSIVE 537 watts. And thats assuming 50. Maybe were talking more like 52, so thats now 600 watts on a Tri Bike and 460 in the SuperMan position. And that is WITH NO WIND AT ALL AND NO HILLS.
> 
> I have Cancellera averaging 49.6 km/hr on a hilly final TT with two-450 foot hills, 1.5 miles long. There is NO WAY he did 480 watts without a blood-fill and wacky heart stimulant drugs.


I don't think you're considering all the other environmental conditions like tailwinds and the other side of those hills...

If you think 49kph on that route = doping, then all of the below are doping, 2 of the top 10 are already caught. 

1. SCHUMACHER Stefan 1h 03' 50" +00'00" 50kph
2. CANCELLARA Fabian 1h 04' 11" + 00' 21" 49kph
3. KIRCHEN Kim 1h 04' 51" + 01' 01" 49kph
4. VANDEVELDE Christian 1h 04' 55" + 01' 05" 49kph
5. MILLAR David 1h 05' 27" + 01' 37" 48kph
6. MENCHOV Denis 1h 05' 45" + 01' 55" 48kph
7. EVANS Cadel 1h 05' 55" + 02' 05" 48kph
8. LANG Sebastian 1h 06' 09" + 02' 19" 48kph
9. KOHL Bernhard 1h 06' 11" + 02' 21" 48kph
10. HINCAPIE George 1h 06' 18" + 02' 28" 48kph

Ps. I know you're using Kreuzotter.de and it isn't that accurate for flat courses...


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## F1nut (Nov 28, 2008)

Its not humanly possible to do over 420 watts, for ANYONE. If you are bigg, your FTP/Kilo is less. 
22°C
16:26:00
Wind : 10 km/h

I have them with 6 mph crosswind for 14kms, 28k or so of tailwind, then 11k of headwind/crosswind.



















It wasnt flat, and the most the wind gave them was 2 mph.... And I dont know if the ASO just lies about which direction the wind was blowing.

Assuming a dead flat speed of 48km/hr in neutral conditions; thats 460 watts on a legal bike. It would take him( Cancellara), 580 watts on a road bike with no skinsuit on and no deep dish rims. IF he could drop 20% power onto his TT bike, thats 466 watts. Most dont drop more than 15% onto the TT position from what I'm reading.


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## pedalruns (Dec 18, 2002)

Bry03cobra said:


> Who do you think will get snagged this season? Predictions!!!


My predicition is...... that any Astana current riders will NOT test postive... Just like the Discovery and USPS teams, never a positive for any 'current' rider... Johan Bruyneel and Lance will continue this amazing record... (of course I hope I'm wrong)

Any other riders on other teams... watch out.


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## function (Jun 20, 2008)

F1nut said:


> Its not humanly possible to do over 420 watts, for ANYONE. If you are bigg, your FTP/Kilo is less.
> 22°C
> 16:26:00
> Wind : 10 km/h
> ...


A few things; 

1) 2mph 'wind assistance' is a _lot_ of power at those speeds, so it's not something you can ignore.

2) The course is zigzagging everywhere affecting how the wind interacts with the rider, i really don't think you accounted for that in your calculations

3) The course has a lot of fast downhills!

I really don't think you can trust your kreuzotter calculations here... Also, i don't know why you think no one can do over 420W FTP, where are you getting that number from?


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## F1nut (Nov 28, 2008)

A big guy doesnt have a lot more power than a light rider, unless they are jacked. Look at the final TT of the 1990 Tour de France:

LeMond at 148 pounds wins it in a slightly downhill TT. Indurain finished somewhere back behind, even though he was sitting 10th overall in the race and weighs 175-180 pounds.

I think someone who is big gains more from a jacked Heamatocrit than a smaller rider.


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## Justridinalong (Dec 31, 2008)

pedalruns said:


> My predicition is...... that any Astana current riders will NOT test postive... Just like the Discovery and USPS teams, never a positive for any 'current' rider... Johan Bruyneel and Lance will continue this amazing record... (of course I hope I'm wrong)
> 
> Any other riders on other teams... watch out.


They are very very well orginized, but the UCI has it out for lance.


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## CabDoctor (Jun 11, 2005)

I say Mark Cavendish gets popped.


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## hooj (Apr 8, 2006)

CabDoctor said:


> I say Mark Cavendish gets popped.


But he's such a nice guy...how could a nice guy take drugs? Nono...just kidding about that nice guy thing.

But seriously. Cavendish is one of the few pure sprinters in pro tour, if he needs to put out power before the sprint, he goes out the back door. I'm sure someone will post a youtube clip to prove me wrong. I would be very surprised to find out that he would do PEDs.

Cancellara on the other hand...I like his riding though...


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## F1nut (Nov 28, 2008)

Being a great sprinter on dead flat stages/1-day races *REQUIRES high FTP and VO2 max power*. All those sprinters are jacked to some degree, because they need to save energy for the sprint. Now there oxygen/kilo wont be that great because they are heavier. Typically you see 60km-hr in the 10k before a finish. That takes 800+ watts so drafting in the field only brings that down to a lesser degree!

So, maybe they dont blood-dope; maybe some of them do. For sure they are using epo to get a heamatocrit close to 50. There is plenty of hockey players that blood dope! From experience, I can say you can finish on a super-smooth, resurfaced road and your still cranking out craploads of power to follow any kind of half-a** leadout before a field sprint. 

Its certainly possible to win _'a stage' _cleanly but there's no way in bloody heck he wins a whole bunch like that on various terrain!


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## CabDoctor (Jun 11, 2005)

Exactly, not to mention the psychological profile he has. Very arrogant sprinter. People with that type of pride usually will do anything to upkeep their public image, i.e. a winner, even if it requires the sacrifice of ethics behind the scenes.


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## Digger28 (Oct 9, 2008)

Sorry guys, there's no way high up or low down that Cavendish dopes. He gets carried to the kilo to go, and yes he has outstanding speed in that last section, but sprinters in general are the cleaner part of the peleton.
Cavendish, ever since he was a stagiaire with T-Mobile, has always been vociferously anti-doping. He never gives those ambiguous, non-comittal responses, which other dopers have done in the past.


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## F1nut (Nov 28, 2008)

Digger28 said:


> Sorry guys, there's no way high up or low down that Cavendish dopes. He gets carried to the kilo to go, and yes he has outstanding speed in that last section, but sprinters in general are the cleaner part of the peleton.
> Cavendish, ever since he was a stagiaire with T-Mobile, has always been vociferously anti-doping. He never gives those ambiguous, non-comittal responses, which other dopers have done in the past.


No F-Way he was clean for that NO F-WAY!!!!! He's doping like 1900 watts in a sprint after 200 kilometers racing days in a row!! Ride for 5 hours at 65% of VO2 max with surges and stuff and than try to sprint at 2,000 F-watts!!!!

If he's clean than he's some kind of total freak to beat all those Italian Sprinters! Pettachi comes back from his lay-off and rides the TOur, bet the house Cavendish beats him, "clean!"

Maybe Evans could be clean, MAYBE. Thats a stretch!


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## T-Dog (Mar 21, 2008)

Armstrong and the Schleck sisters.


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## bianchi bob (Mar 23, 2008)

Cancellera, Kirchen, F and A Schleck, Dave Millar and just about every on Rock Racing.


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## CabDoctor (Jun 11, 2005)

bianchi bob said:


> Cancellera, Kirchen, F and A Schleck, Dave Millar and just about every on Rock Racing.


Why DM? He's pack fill now, I would imagine he's clean.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

If Millar is doping, he's not doing it really well...

Someone at CSC maybe. Riis being Riis, I don't think he's sincere at all when he talks about doping, and internal doping control programs could very well be just a way to prevent their riders to get caught by outside, official tests. Frank Schleck already got lucky with his Fuentes link, if he has brains, he has stopped stretching his luck... Andy too since they seem to do everything the same.

I'd like Valverde to finally get caught as well as some Astana riders but I think Johan's teams always had some sort of internal doping tests to make sure they don't get caught and the chances of them failing in that area should be pretty slim with all the experience they have dodging tests... But Lance announced a super testing program when he said he was back but he has not done it really, he's 'too busy'... Astana are as shady as ever if you ask me.


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## ziggurat22 (Jul 13, 2005)

Maurice Garon and Joop Zoetemelk.


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## lalahsghost (Aug 27, 2007)

Oscar Pereiro was hurt in the AToC, no? I had a sneaky hunch about him for some reason this year, but who knows now...


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## framed (Oct 25, 2005)

Justridinalong said:


> They are very very well orginized, but the UCI has it out for lance.


Are you kidding? The UCI isn't out to get anyone, except maybe a few sacrificial lambs, and Lance ain't one of those.


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

F1nut said:


> Its not humanly possible to do over 420 watts, for ANYONE. If you are bigg, your FTP/Kilo is less.
> 22°C
> 16:26:00
> Wind : 10 km/h
> ...


F1 - use Krutzer to do Lemonds TT to win the TdF over Fingon (Similar course profile) now compare that to FC's numbers. BTW I believe it is fairly well know that FC will be a tour threat in the years to come - the guy is a very (very) good climber.


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## fab4 (Jan 8, 2003)

*Lance Is Dope*

This is the year they will finally get Lance Armstrong for doping.


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## Mootsie (Feb 4, 2004)

It will be some Italian or Spanish dude.


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## lalahsghost (Aug 27, 2007)

Mootsie said:


> It will be some Italian or Spanish dude.


REAL SPECIFIC there


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## bornin53 (Sep 3, 2005)

*Oscar Pereiro Did Not Race the AToC*

you may have confused him with Oscar Freire, who was injured in the crash when Kim Kirchen got his rain jacket caught in the spokes of his front wheel. Freire either fractured or broke a couple of ribs in that crash and is missing MSR because of it.


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