# Worlds RR predictions



## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

I'll start. 










Oscarrrriiiiiiittttoooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Gotta go with Gilbert - he's been on fire this year!


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

Creakyknees said:


> I'll start.


I admit that I'd love to see Oscar win another one. But I'm going against the grain and picking Sagan.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Gripped said:


> I admit that I'd love to see Oscar win another one. But I'm going against the grain and picking Sagan.


after many people dismissed it, I will go with Cavendish. Even though I will be secretly rooting for Gilbert.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

Gripped said:


> I admit that I'd love to see Oscar win another one. But I'm going against the grain and picking Sagan.


I don't know if Sagan is against the grain. He's won a dozen races this year, so he can obviously finish it off. I think he's the only guy Cav hasn't gone head to head with either. The only thing going against Sagan is his only teammates are the Velits'.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Gilbert.
Sagan.
Cancellara.

In that order.


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## The Weasel (Jul 20, 2006)

Gripped said:


> I admit that I'd love to see Oscar win another one. But I'm going against the grain and picking Sagan.


+2 Sagan


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

kbiker3111 said:


> I don't know if Sagan is against the grain. He's won a dozen races this year, so he can obviously finish it off. I think he's the only guy Cav hasn't gone head to head with either. The only thing going against Sagan is his only teammates are the Velits'.


I think Sagan is not a bad pick, actually. Even though he really shines from a smaller group, or if the climbs can soften other sprinters a bit. I think he is the guy who may threaten Cav at some point, depending how he matures - I actually hope he goes for more strength than speed and competes in classics - he could be next Thor/Boonen, fairly fast sprinter who is also super-strong on rollers and pave.


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## wibly wobly (Apr 23, 2009)

I have to say it, I really want Oscar to win again. I doubt he'll do it. Even with his normally up and down form it's been pretty much the worst that I can remember this year.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

Parcours here Course for Road Races - 2011 UCI Road Race World Championship - Landevejs VM 2011

Even 14 laps not likely to kill off all the sprinters in normal circumstances.. Why no love for Farrar?

Bottom line the racers make the race. Will enough teams ride hard enough to stop the really fast guys? Will any other teams help the Brits engineer a bunch sprint. The team is good but I don't think they can emmulate HTC and take on the whole peloton, since every rider should be committed on the day.

Cavendish from a bunch or Gilbert from a small group.


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## DonDenver (May 30, 2007)

*No question about it...*

Absolutely CAV :thumbsup:


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

I would love to see Cav take it, but somewhere deep down tells me it will be someone like Sagan or Lars Boom.


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## allison (Apr 19, 2006)

baker921 said:


> Cavendish from a bunch or Gilbert from a small group.


+1.

:thumbsup:


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

I am rooting for Oscarito.

Maybe Gilbert would take it though


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## Chainstay (Mar 13, 2004)

*Cavendish*

Absolutely Cav. The Brits have their team focused only on him. Gilbert won't get away in a small group. The Brits, Aussies, Germans and Americans won't let it happen

Cav, Goss and Farrar


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Sagan, luckily, doesn't really need a team, he's shown in many cases to work his way alone, choose the right wheel from other teams to get to a winning position. He's my #1.

Freire... he hasn't shown much lately but it's Oscar Freire dammit, he's hard to predict and can win out of nowhere even if common sense says he can't.

Gilbert is a superhuman, he can win everything but on Zoncolan or something... Depends of the race dynamics and who's there at the end. Too many people and teamates working the sprint might be the way to stop him.

Fabian from far isn't that far fetched either, he must be disappointed about his TT performance.

Farrar hasn't shown himself for a long time now, not sure he will be ready for such a hard race.

Cav has a good team, if they do work well together and the race stays controlled, he can get it.

Thor could defend too.

Not sure I agree but I think Boom's pick is interesting...


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

Hushovd will repeat.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

I just watched this video of driving the course. Skip to 14:15 and see what the finish hill looks like, after the last right turn. 







I am changing my prediction to Gilbert.


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## velodog (Sep 26, 2007)

Creakyknees said:


> I just watched this video of driving the course. Skip to 14:15 and see what the finish hill looks like, after the last right turn.
> 
> I am changing my prediction to Gilbert.


Yep, I saw that video a few days ago and it's got Gilbert all over it. Thors' gonna be up there too.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

It does look good for Gilbert... and looks less likely for Cavendish... but I'm sticking with Sagan!


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

Dan Gerous said:


> It does look good for Gilbert... and looks less likely for Cavendish... but I'm sticking with Sagan!


Yeah; PG likes those hill climbs to the finish line.


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## Eric_H (Feb 5, 2004)

Edvald Boasson Hagen could win on this finish.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

cda 455 said:


> Yeah; PG likes those hill climbs to the finish line.


it's not a hill climb though. The finish is not nearly as hard as the video might portrait.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

*it's not a hill climb though. The finish is not nearly as hard as the video might portrait.* 
+1
Just watched the girls U23. No spoiler but the dynamic could have been Cav himself. Blistering acceleration from 6/7 riders back in the last 150 and won by a distance.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Sean Kelly on Cyclingnews is saying Cav is not in top form (despite his wins at ToB) and the winner will likely come from a small group or breakaway.


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## ewarnerusa (Oct 11, 2007)

1. Cav
2. Goss
3. Bennati


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Bennati? He still rides?


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

bigmig19 said:


> Bennati? He still rides?


season or in general? he is only 30. Won second to last stage in the vuelta so why not do worlds?


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

Dan Gerous said:


> It does look good for Gilbert... and looks less likely for Cavendish... but I'm sticking with Sagan!


Long race which might not be advantageous for Sagan since he's young. Gilbert is canny and has lots of racing experience. Mediocre sprint so he either needs the right group or the right circumstances in the final kms. Cav and Farrar could both win this but both are big question marks with fitness. Neither really seems in top form.

I put Thor in the same boat as Gilbert.

Long race with a fairly but not entirely flat profile with a small rise at the end. The strong teams should make the race hard for each other. Teams that don't think they have the sprinter for the end are going to look to split the filed with at least one of their men in the split. It comes down to who can last the longest in that front group and how big it is -- and whether the big sprinters have any team mates.

So you want a sprinter that can last the distance who can make things happen without teammates.

That said, I'm still picking Sagan. I just hope he stays with the leaders.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

Men's U23, another big bunch finish. Looking good for Cav, Goss, Farrar, Greipel and Bennati rather than the classics riders. However the course is narrow and twisty and the whether keeps threatening rain. If it's wet it could be carnage and anybody's race.


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## Chainstay (Mar 13, 2004)

The weather forecast is sunny and 17 for Sunday with light winds so the race should come down to the riders. 

Still picking Cav. I'm not sure why Kelly and others are questioning his condition. The worlds team were tacking on extra training miles after some of the Tour of Britain stages. His stage 8 victory was smokin' and it was a long sprint


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Cav was using the Tour of Britain for training, so they can't rate his condition by his performance there.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

Cinelli 82220 said:


> Cav was using the Tour of Britain for training, so they can't rate his condition by his performance there.


He won the opening and closing stages and was second to Renshaw on a third. I think thats probably a pass!


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

Gripped said:


> So you want a sprinter that can last the distance who can make things happen without teammates.


Saw the U23. Very fast race. Looked very much like a Hushovd type finish. Not speedy enough for Cav and not steep enough for Fast Phil.

But I'm Norwegian and biased. That said I guess the race is too long for Boasson Hagen (and Sagan). But I've guessed wrong before.


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## C6Rider (Nov 15, 2008)

*Hope it's Hushovd*

Would be nice to see him repeat as world champ in his last race for Garmin-Cervelo. If not him, then I'd like to see Gilbert take it. And if not Gilbert, then anyone else but Cavendish. I think Thor is ready to win, especially after the Vuelta snub...if that is what really happened.


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## bruce_wayne (Apr 30, 2010)

Greipel lurking. lurking...


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

There's going to be a lot of guys in the finishing pack. Fastest survivor will probably be Thor. Going with him. Best luck to Freire though.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Sagan has defied skeptics his whole career, just ask Patrick LeFevere. The kid (Sagan) for the win.


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## T0mi (Mar 2, 2011)

I predict boredom will win until the last 10km then Boassen-Hagen, Hushovd or Goss could take the win.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Farrar is my sentimental favorite but I doubt it and would also like to see Thor do it again. Maybe the gorilla will take this one?


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

Seeing how the course is racing, this one is gift wrapped for Cavendish.


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## DonDenver (May 30, 2007)

AdamM said:


> Seeing how the course is racing, this one is gift wrapped for Cavendish.


Well...gift wrapped...no. 

He had to work at the end much like opening up one of those bullet-proof plastic sealed electronics packages.


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