# Lance is in Ullrich's head



## carbonfred (May 26, 2004)

Check out this quote from JU from cyclingnews:

Armstrong, while still racing well and showing that his own preparation was on track, surprised some by only finishing fifth best on the tough Mont Ventoux time trial at the Dauphiné Libéré. Ullrich says he won't be fooled. 

"I'm convinced that Lance bluffed on the Mont Ventoux," Ullrich said at a press conference announcing the T-Mobile Tour roster. "Believe me, he's a lot better prepared than he lets on. And [Johan] Bruyneel's comments about his form not being as good don't convince me either. That's Lance's style, to try to fool his rivals."


I'd bet Lance was stoked to hear that quote. Either way, bluffing or not bluffing, he's got Ullrich second-guessing already. Probably won't matter if one man is in much better condition that the other, but if the difference is small, having your opponent befuddled is perfect. Reminds me of the movie with Arnold Schwarzenegger "Pumping Iron" when he completely pysches out the up and coming Lou Ferigno.


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*I love Ullrich but his genes gave him above average VO2 and below average Gray Matter*

Yes Jan, Lance took a dive in the ventoux TT. He really wanted to embolden all the up and comers like Heras, Mayo Hamilton etc... Just what they need. None have won the tour or even come close to Lance (yes not even close) except Jan - so his master bluff plan was really to give them that last bit of confidence they needed!

Jan, do what you do best and crush everyone with your diesel, but don't let everyone know how stupid your sports mind is, because this will surely give Lance confidence.

-Nik


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*Jan should be in the NBA...*

"I'm convinced..." by who? his posse? Rudy P? His own brain? Hey big guy, if that is what it takes to get you motivated to train harder so be it.

Between Rudy P and "training partner" what's his name...it sounds like he has a posse going. Just like the NBA or NFL players who show huge talent young and get lampreys telling them that they are the greatest to have ever walked the earth. Man, grow up and think for yourself. 

Did LA bluff? maybe, maybe not. Is JU an experianced professional cyclist who may see more telltale signs than some weekend cyclists with nothing better to do? yes. Is LA in JU's brain? yes, and he has been for several years now.

It's amusing to see JU attempting the mind games now. But I would rather see the legs do the talking...


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## jschrotz (Feb 3, 2004)

Old_school_nik said:


> Yes Jan, Lance took a dive in the ventoux TT. He really wanted to embolden all the up and comers like Heras, Mayo Hamilton etc... Just what they need. None have won the tour or even come close to Lance (yes not even close) except Jan - so his master bluff plan was really to give them that last bit of confidence they needed!
> 
> Jan, do what you do best and crush everyone with your diesel, but don't let everyone know how stupid your sports mind is, because this will surely give Lance confidence.
> 
> -Nik



WTF are you guys talking about?? Rule #1 is never to underestimate your opponent, esp. someone like Armstrong. So Jan goes out of his way to say he's not doing that, and that makes him stupid? Remember that this is the guy who did get fooled by Lance's bluffing a few years ago in the mountains when LA was acting like a whipped dog on the days' early climbs only to launch a brutal attack on the final climb of the day. So apparently the new rule is: Fool me once, shame on you. I'm not falling for that $hit again, I'm a moron???? All the guy is saying is that Lance is better than he appeared at Mt. Ventoux. If Jan did get overconfident of his chances based on Lance's ride up Mt. V, you'd be calling him an idiot for doing that too. So make up your minds.


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*Chiiiiiillllllllllllllllllll baby! no need for all the cussing... I agree with you...*

I am sure Lance will be stronger for the tour than he was at TT in Dauphine - and i too am glad jan is concerned about Lance's head games - but staying in the back of the pack and feigning a bad day in the tour and throwing 2 minutes to a young upstart in a major test in a race that he has won 2 times? I really don't see how anyone thinks Lance thrw that ITT.
Why give his rivals hope?
If he goes all out and rushes everyone they KNOW they are going for 2nd place in the TDF. By finishing 5th or 4th or whatever - he opens the door.

To address you other point - I don't think after 3 second place finishes to LA will Jan underestimate him. Regardless of LA does inteh Dauphine ITT.

Besides, I am pulling for Jan, I hope this does motivate him, as I have said may times in these forums Jan's physique looks simpy awesome this year... maybe it will be his year?

-Nik


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## jimjo (May 18, 2004)

Old_school_nik said:


> I am sure Lance will be stronger for the tour than he was at TT in Dauphine - and i too am glad jan is concerned about Lance's head games - but staying in the back of the pack and feigning a bad day in the tour and throwing 2 minutes to a young upstart in a major test in a race that he has won 2 times? I really don't see how anyone thinks Lance thrw that ITT.
> Why give his rivals hope?
> If he goes all out and rushes everyone they KNOW they are going for 2nd place in the TDF. By finishing 5th or 4th or whatever - he opens the door.
> 
> ...


what he did was open the door for people to attack earlier in the race..everyone's been talking about the alps and the last week but not really noting the pyrenees. I would look to tyler or heras to attack in the pyrenees and hope to just defend up the ITT and conversely i think LA is hoping for that so the other teams will blow up defending the yellow so that USPS can win it in the final week.


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## euro-trash (May 1, 2004)

jimjo said:


> what he did was open the door for people to attack earlier in the race..everyone's been talking about the alps and the last week but not really noting the pyrenees. I would look to tyler or heras to attack in the pyrenees and hope to just defend up the ITT and conversely i think LA is hoping for that so the other teams will blow up defending the yellow so that USPS can win it in the final week.



You act like people weren't going to bury themselves on every mtn. stage in the Pyrenes anyway. No one is going to want to come from behind after stage 13.


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## GatorPV (Jun 29, 2004)

*Not an optimal effort*

I think the source was OLN, but C. Carmichel said Lance would not ride the Dauphine to win. Last year he crashed and he arrived at the Tour too beat up and it cost him early. This year they wanted a good effort but did not want him to spend too much time in the red zone. CC said that all the important stages come late in this years tour so there would be plenty of time to gain additional fitness. What they did last year didn't work (winning the Dauphine) so why do it the same way. It's called strategy and coaching. Mayo can climb after only a week, but can he still climb after two? Also, LA has said the stage following the ITT on L'Alpe is a tougher day. Based on that I would expect him not to win the climb and to hammer the following days.


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## RedMenace (Jan 28, 2004)

*I follow the logic.*



GatorPV said:


> CC said that all the important stages come late in this years tour so there would be plenty of time to gain additional fitness.


But isn't this what Big Mig figured the year he failed at 6?


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*Yes, but big Mig came in way overweight...*

you could even tell just by looking at him - he didn't have those stringbean skinny arms like he did in years past. Looking atthe course profiles for the last 8 days - it is going tobe brutal. i wouldn't be THAT surprised to see a climber win this race - ie heras, mayo, et al...


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## MikeBiker (Mar 9, 2003)

Wasn't the weather cool and wet so that the race pace was slow and Big Mig wasn't able to burn off the fat like he intended?


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*that's what OLN said in there little Big Mig biography segment*

but that is kinda silly - you burn more calories in the heat AND in the cold for different reasons - but even if it was hot, intentionally losing weight during competition in not recommended by anyone. He was just out of shape.

I suppose an argument could be made that you could increase your conditioning during the first week or 2 of the tour, and if the stages were slow than maybe you wouldn't get much extra conditioning in...

It will be interesting Lance is no spring chicken - that is for sure


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*not necessarily true*

first week or so was flat and would have been perfect to ride off those extra 5 or so pounds leaving him at a perfect weight for the Mtns. Had he shown at race weight at the start he may have been underweight and weakened by the time he hit the hills. The wet weather slowed the pace dramamtically and riders were consuming mass calories to stay warm. 
So by the time they hit the hills he wasn't at peak weight, his form was fine as he won all his prep races leading up to the Tour. He just suffered the extra weight and Bjarne let him have it. Mig was like Anquetil where the Mtns were 'damage control' and with the weight he wasn't able to limit his losses. This differs from LA who can win Mtns as easily as the TT's. He's more of an all rounder in the mode of Hinault or Merckx (NOTE: I'M NOT SAYING HE'S AS GOOD AS EITHER SO JUST SHUT IT NOW!) so I doubt it will be an issue.


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## CFBlue (Jun 28, 1999)

So, either Jan is dead wrong and is an idiot or he is right on and you guys are the idiots.


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## reklar (Mar 15, 2003)

Manhattan said:


> So, either Jan is dead wrong and is an idiot or he is right on and you guys are the idiots.


Even if Jan isn't right about Armstrong's form, he's right not to underestimate LA. So even if he's wrong, he's not an idiot--at least not for that statement.


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## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

Manhattan said:


> So, either Jan is dead wrong and is an idiot or he is right on and you guys are the idiots.



Or LANCE did give everything on the Ventoux but still wins the Tour in the final week because he dropped weight and his form improved over the roughly 5 weeks in between. Or the guys who could beat him at the tour crash out, get sick, have a single bad day because they don't eat enough, dehydrate, suffer in the cold, etc., etc. 

If only the world was black and white


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## GatorPV (Jun 29, 2004)

*Just making an assessment.*

Every year regardless of who is riding well and/or how out of shape JU is, LA says Jan is the guy I fear the most. Each year he has been right. So Jan says the results on the Ventoux mean nothing, that he believes LA could have done better. JU knows who the man to beat is. It is likely that three weeks of riding will bring surprises but that doesn't make anyone an idiot. Prognosticators get paid hansomely to discuss on camera the same things we're doing for free. Maybe we are idiots... I want to get paid for these in depth thoughts.


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## LSchoux (Apr 1, 2004)

GatorPV said:


> Every year regardless of who is riding well and/or how out of shape JU is, LA says Jan is the guy I fear the most. Each year he has been right. So Jan says the results on the Ventoux mean nothing, that he believes LA could have done better. JU knows who the man to beat is. It is likely that three weeks of riding will bring surprises but that doesn't make anyone an idiot. Prognosticators get paid hansomely to discuss on camera the same things we're doing for free. Maybe we are idiots... I want to get paid for these in depth thoughts.


Here's my FREE grain of salt ...  

I fear that the Tour will be a rather dull affair. I can imagine Heras and Mayo, Basso and Hamilton, Armstrong and Ulle with a few of their domestiques and the odd dark horse rider (Moreau, Chavanel or others) in the front group on every mountain top finish. The Pyrenees will be a Mayo-Heras duel with maybe one of the other guys to chip in a few attacks... Mayo and/or Heras will come out on top with a couple of stage wins. Lance and Ulle are a few seconds behind, nothing more. Before the Alpe D'Huez Stage Lance will be about 40-80 seconds behind whoever is leading. He may not win that stage by a large margin but he will be up there and gain enough time on the Yellow jersey that he will be in yellow at the conclusion of that TT. 

Ulle will loose some time on him there but may be able to gain some back in the second time trial a few days later. 

The podium will be Armstrong in Yellow, Ulle and Tyler rather close together for either 2nd or 3rd place (Ullrich announced today that he did not want to be 2nd again-so we can make that Hamilton 2nd and Ullrich 3rd) Mayo and Heras are 4th and 5th (in whatever order) and Basso, Moreau and the rest of the pack make up the rest of the list. 

That is my guess... Of course there may be the odd factors: heat, cold, rain, sun, musette bags and crazed fans... If Lance comes through unharmed by either of these... and stays clear of crashes... No 6 is in the bag. 

Now, Lance, Ulle and all the other boys...., go out there and proove me wrong !


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## GatorPV (Jun 29, 2004)

*Nice salt*

The first two weeks seems pretty blah, Doesn't appear to be anything to shake things up till stage 15. At that point the tour will be won in three stages 16, 17, 19. I keep wondering why anyone would want the yellow before then. It will take a lot of work prior to that to keep it, only to be toast by the time the road goes up. I suppose a few sponsors will appreciate the screen time that the yellow jersey will bring. I would imagine anyone with a real shot at the podium would try to avoid the burden until stage 15, 16,17. A strong pace early (first 2 weeks) could effectively take Mayo and Heras out of it before the mountains. If that happens it becomes a three person race with Tyler, Jan and Lance. That is of course if there are no mishaps or sickness. If he comes in fit, LA has the advantage of only needing to cover those two guys and then try to hurt them In the last week. I think this course works to his advantage. All he has to do is stay close till the final 5 days. Few riders in the world seem strong enough to make up ground or pull away in the final week besides LA and Jan. Time will tell, it's just a shame we have to wait two weeks before it gets really interesting. 
Anyone have contacts at OLN cause this is good stuff


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## euro-trash (May 1, 2004)

I agree for the most part, but the GC battle begins on stage 12. As for a team killing themselves to protect the jersey, while true, Fassa will do a large amount of work to keep the race together the first 11 days, decreasing the work for GC leader's team.


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*Scott Sunderland says...*

that one of those "boring early stages" has cobbles and that a lot of riders, particularly the spanish climbers, have never ridden on them and may lose time. The implication was that there could be some crashes or pileups and such.. whcih will keep people on their toes those first few days.

BTW, in regards to salt, 2 cents and prognosticating, that is what these boards are for! Talking respectful trash, being backseat TDF quarterback's, about every minute detail down to what Tyler is eating the day before the race starts and such....


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## svend (Jul 18, 2003)

*More cents*



GatorPV said:


> The first two weeks seems pretty blah, Doesn't appear to be anything to shake things up till stage 15. At that point the tour will be won in three stages 16, 17, 19. I keep wondering why anyone would want the yellow before then. It will take a lot of work prior to that to keep it, only to be toast by the time the road goes up.


I agree but will go out on a limb and say that the most important stage will be 17. Strategy will play a huge factor on ITT as it most likely will not pay to go 100% with such a brutal stage the next day. Most of the posts so far have left it out with everyone focused on 16. Stage 17 at 204 km with three cat 1's an HC and a small cat 2 for good measure has the potential to blow the field apart. After that point the rest of the race will simply be damage control for whoever is in yellow. Of course, if it's close, then 19 will decide. 
My guess is that USPS would like nothing more than to have someone else defend the yellow for the first couple of weeks.


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## LSchoux (Apr 1, 2004)

Old_school_nik said:


> that one of those "boring early stages" has cobbles and that a lot of riders, particularly the spanish climbers, have never ridden on them and may lose time. The implication was that there could be some crashes or pileups and such.. whcih will keep people on their toes those first few days.
> 
> BTW, in regards to salt, 2 cents and prognosticating, that is what these boards are for! Talking respectful trash, being backseat TDF quarterback's, about every minute detail down to what Tyler is eating the day before the race starts and such....


Cobbles...make me laugh...

I was also very excited hearing that there would be cobbles in the Tour. The last time I watched/can remember it was the 1989 TdF when there wer cobbles (and Fignon flatted)...

But I checked the course and there are I believe only 2 sections of cobbles, for a total of less than 3 kilometers. Ha Ha ! 

And talking cobbles...These are smooth, well-groomed cobbles. No pointy, old, cracked, delapidated Paris-Roubaix-cobbles. So really... with a little bit of good manners and discipline in the pack, a little bit of luck (no rain) and no heroics by Belgian or Northern French riders who feel that they have to "proove" themselves, these "cobbles" will not even affect that stage's outcome... all In My Humble Opinion


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## GatorPV (Jun 29, 2004)

svend said:


> ...the most important stage will be 17. Strategy will play a huge factor on ITT as it most likely will not pay to go 100% with such a brutal stage the next day. Most of the posts so far have left it out with everyone focused on 16....


On the LA Chronicles they discussed the fact that 17 is the most difficult day of the tour. It will have a profound impact on who will win this years tour. If you go easy on 16 to conserve energy you could find yourself way back. On the other hand, if you go all out you could find yourself in no man's land the next day. It will take a serious man to conquer these two days and still be in contention. I will probably take these two days off work to watch it live. The winner comes from these two stages.


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*Sorry, I got it wrong, Sunderland said Spanish riders aren't used to...*

Eating Peach COBBLER not riding on cobblestones.. my bad. 










LSchoux said:


> Cobbles...make me laugh...
> 
> I was also very excited hearing that there would be cobbles in the Tour. The last time I watched/can remember it was the 1989 TdF when there wer cobbles (and Fignon flatted)...
> 
> ...


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Seeing most elite riders can only peak for 4 weeks at most, those that peaked now will start to fade at the end of the Tour. After winning the Tour de Georgia, Armstrong thought he was too close to peaking so he backed it off a bit not to repeat last years' mistakes.

Hamilton is coming in a little hot, and may fade a bit towards the end. The wild card is Mayo who clearly appeared to peak for the Daupine (maybe by accident) and may struggle the second half of the tour- especially on the very long ITT into Bresacon (sp?)

Ullrich looks to be peaking at the right time as well, but that is to be expected in such a veteran tour rider. The question for him, is can he deal with the rapid tempo change hill attacks of Heras, Mayo and Armstrong. That has been his Achilles heel in the past, and it doesn't appear to be any different this year, especially with Viko gone.


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## carbonfred (May 26, 2004)

*Probable Lance strategy*

Here's how I think things will play out. Lance is getting older and is now trying to do something no other five time winner has ever done. I think his strongest suit right now is his endurance. If you look back at his five wins, the the point at which he really took over has come later and later. The difficulties of this tour's last week works in his favor in that respect. He no longer can be completely dominant either in the mountains or in the time trials. But he is still a superb all-rounder and will likely out time trial the climbers and out climb the time trialists. I think his strategy will be very conservative. There is no need to put his stamp of authority on any stage, he's already done that many times. In fact, the winning strategy may not to be to win any stages, except the team time trial. I think Alp d'Huez will be mostly for bragging rights and won't amount to much in the end. The top contenders may only be a minute apart that day. Lance should just play his strategy each and every day of being consistently good. Let Mayo win on ADH and let Ullrich win the long ITT, but don't let either get much time. I'd bet dollars to donuts that is how Carmicheal and Armstrong are going to play it.


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## LSchoux (Apr 1, 2004)

Old_school_nik said:


> Eating Peach COBBLER not riding on cobblestones.. my bad.


Ahhhh... that explains it....  

Give me Peach Cobbler (or even Apple Cobbler) any day over Spanish Churros !

Gee... 340-odd days of TdF withdrawal have left their mark... Let's Get It On !


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

carbonfred said:


> Here's how I think things will play out. Lance is getting older and is now trying to do something no other five time winner has ever done. I think his strongest suit right now is his endurance. If you look back at his five wins, the the point at which he really took over has come later and later. The difficulties of this tour's last week works in his favor in that respect. He no longer can be completely dominant either in the mountains or in the time trials. But he is still a superb all-rounder and will likely out time trial the climbers and out climb the time trialists. I think his strategy will be very conservative. There is no need to put his stamp of authority on any stage, he's already done that many times. In fact, the winning strategy may not to be to win any stages, except the team time trial. I think Alp d'Huez will be mostly for bragging rights and won't amount to much in the end. The top contenders may only be a minute apart that day. Lance should just play his strategy each and every day of being consistently good. Let Mayo win on ADH and let Ullrich win the long ITT, but don't let either get much time. I'd bet dollars to donuts that is how Carmicheal and Armstrong are going to play it.


Maybe, except for the desire to pick up the time bonuses for winning, especially if the time gaps are under a minute. I would predict Armstrong takes two stages this year, both with uphill finishes.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*Success is already here*



Coolhand said:


> Maybe, except for the desire to pick up the time bonuses for winning, especially if the time gaps are under a minute. I would predict Armstrong takes two stages this year, both with uphill finishes.



At this point, Jan has changed his mind again and actually admitted that golly gee, the Alpe De Huez TT could be where the TDF is lost. This is of course, completely the opposite of what he was saying in April. BUT, again, look at the stage after Alpe De Huez. If you cant recover from the TT, the Tour will be over at that point. 

The headgames are here folks and if you are nervous about your form with less trhan a month to go before the Tour, its time to go home. Armstrong is too ego driven to come to a Tour in bad shape.Thats not an option for him. This is not Lance bashing, its a fact. Now with the LA confidential accusations, he has stated that he is more motivated than ever.


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*I thought...*

I remember LA in the cyclingnews interview that stage 17 was more "surprisingly hard" than "the hardest stage". It is hidden behind the mtt. It's not the longest mountain stage either. Stage 17 should be a long day in terms of time though. It will be interesting to see what the winners time is on Stage 17 vs Stage 13 Plateau de Beille.

I've gone back and reread the tour presentations and interview with the directors (who should be more expert than us). The more I read, the more tricky the course seems to be. There is not a day that stands out as critical and if you win it, you've won the Tour. It seems more of a pitfall Tour....there are several difficulties on several days that could ruin anybodies GC hopes. Early, it's the TTT, cobbles and crosswinds. Later, mountains (but not too many) and TTs (but not long- l'Alpe or overly flat-Besancon).

Keep the GC time spread close to keep it exciting, but fill the course with traps to keep the riders on thier toes. We may have a surprise if Postal/Tmod/Phonak decide to push hard and early on 17...EE maybe caught out with tired legs.


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## CFBlue (Jun 28, 1999)

*well, well, well*

judging from all the Freds on this forum's thread, ahem ahem... who said that Jan was totally psyched out by Armstrong when Jan said that he felt Armstrong was alot stronger than he appeared to be a month ago... well, well, well. What happened to all those Freds now? Especially now after Armstrong's time trial display in the Prologue once again showed that he was the man to beat. I guess Ulrich was right all along for not underestimating Armstrong!!!! And for Freds on this forum, get a clue! Unfortunately, for Jan, even though he proved himself to be right, he's probably not going to win this Tour.


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## Damian (Feb 19, 2004)

*Ullrich in armstrongs head*



carbonfred said:


> Check out this quote from JU from cyclingnews:
> 
> Armstrong, while still racing well and showing that his own preparation was on track, surprised some by only finishing fifth best on the tough Mont Ventoux time trial at the Dauphiné Libéré. Ullrich says he won't be fooled.
> 
> ...


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## carbonfred (May 26, 2004)

Manhattan said:


> judging from all the Freds on this forum's thread, ahem ahem... who said that Jan was totally psyched out by Armstrong when Jan said that he felt Armstrong was alot stronger than he appeared to be a month ago... well, well, well. What happened to all those Freds now? Especially now after Armstrong's time trial display in the Prologue once again showed that he was the man to beat. I guess Ulrich was right all along for not underestimating Armstrong!!!! And for Freds on this forum, get a clue! Unfortunately, for Jan, even though he proved himself to be right, he's probably not going to win this Tour.


Since I started this thread and my name has Fred in it, I will respond. I guess you missed the point of my first posting. Which is that Lance has kept Ullrich guessing and those mind games are working for Lance.You could say that the prologue shows Lance has good form and it was right for Ullrich not underestimate him. But couldn't you say to JU before the tour, just do your prep to the max and not worry about anyone else? That would be good advice. So whether he was right or wrong in estimating LA should have no bearing on his own training. He's letting LA confuse him.


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## CFBlue (Jun 28, 1999)

*freds' heads are spinning.*

Obviously the freds are pyscholanalyzing every little thing that comes out of Ulrich's mouth and getting confused because their interpretation is different than what Ullrich is actually saying. I think Lance stamp of dominance over such a short Prologue course showed that he is on. Jan was right. Freds' heads are spinning.


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## _jim_ (Apr 30, 2003)

*lol*

lol I have to agree with Mr Manhattan. While a pile of crap this thread has turned into.


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*One Fred responds:*

I only had one issue about what Jan said and it was about semantics really. That LA would actually intentionally lose 2 minutes to...Mayo et. al. I explained myself earlier in this thread.. Everyone is on the record that lance went his hardest, even after the fact Chris Carmical said he went 100% on both prolouge and TT up Ventoux - just because Lance is stronger now than he was then doesn't mean he f***ing used Ventoux as a bluff - that still seems silly. I always said Jan was RIGHT not to underestimate Lance.

Now can we get back to second guessing the TDF organizers for changing the TTT rules please?

-Fred for a day


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