# TdF 2014 Stage 13 Jul 18 Discuss'n (Spoilers)



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

TdF 2014 Stage 13 Jul 18 Discuss'n (Spoilers)

On these recent two stages, 11 and 12, there has been some challenging riding, but largely the peleton has been able to keep things in check, and no major changes to the overall standings have resulted. Talansky has been hampered by injury rather than terrain or strategy. Sad to hear that Sagan has been hampered by bronchitis or whatever he has. 

Stage 13 is a rough one. Normally, this type of stage, at this point in the race, would be the point where the race really begins. With some challenging stages early on, this year has been different. Yet, the contest does genuinely begin here. All GC contenders are clustered at the top of the overall rankings, within minutes of each other - the type of time differences that are gained or lost on each of these serious mountain stages. Nibali will have to come out of hiding to defend.

This should be some good viewing.

Overall, about 115 miles. No big deal, I have done that unsupported. But there are a couple speed bumps along the way that are sch great speed bumps, they have been given names: Col du Lautaret (French for "My quads are cramping") and Col de Izoard (French for "Iz I crazee?!?! -I could be down there sipping Beaujolais with Spartacus and Andy Schleck!"). Then, an uphill finish in Risoul that seems to flatten out only for the final KM, a straight run into town.

The ride is like one of those programmed bike rides on the exercise bicycle: those blinking red lights indicate that it goes straight up, then down, then up, then down, then up.

Not much more to say, except that gaskets will be blown, and we are likely to see one or a few riders withdraw once tested in this capacity, as others strive to contain the damage to their time and standings.

I would go with Nibali, but I have my pick-the-less-obvious-guy strategy for overall predictions, and so I will go with TJ.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Sagan does a wheelie up the last climb, finishes way in the back.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Navarro-OUT
Acevedo-OUT
.
.
.


The abandons are mounting.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Dropping like flies.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

I predict Tejay a stage win, time to make his move for the yellow from here on out.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Marc said:


> Navarro-OUT
> Acevedo-OUT
> .
> .
> ...


ouch - those are some strong riders.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

I looked at the wrong day; I looked at Saturday's stage, and described that. So, I will just flip that into the discussion for Saturday. Today's stage is NOT the kind where you could say it is time to really being paying attention.

I just got off teleconference for work and have just tuned in.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Skewer said:


> Sagan does a wheelie up the last climb, finishes way in the back.


It looks like the course for today does not flatten out at the end; Sagan or someone may very well wheelie across the finish line. It looks like the final stretch is a straight shot, but uphill.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

And Fuglsang left some of his shoulder on that turn. Yikes.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Go Horner, show the young 'uns how it's done.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

at 8km to go, why is TJ working so hard at the front for that little group? if they want to ride hard, he should wheel-such. If they won't ride hard, he should attack.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

PJay said:


> at 8km to go, why is TJ working so hard at the front for that little group? if they want to ride hard, he should wheel-such. If they won't ride hard, he should attack.


Too late for TJ, $ucks.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

good move nibali!

and the TJ group is abt to blow up


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Skewer said:


> Sagan does a wheelie up the last climb, finishes way in the back.


If Sagan does a wheelie up a mountain and no camera is around to witness it...did Sagan really do a wheelie?


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

How far down will Ritchie fall? 

Great ride by veteran Chris Horner. Didn't come in the top 10, but fantastic ride by him.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Looks like Nibali will be the yellow jersey winner barring injury that forces him to withdraw or he screws up the time trial.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Porte out of the top 10 GC.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

And most of the remainder of Team Sky got dumped. Tick tock.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

chizhang001001 said:


> looks like the tour is over. this tour is getting more uninteresting


It's never over, until it's over. Never know, Nibali could have a bad day, get sick, crash. But barring that, he will definitely win.


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## chizhang001001 (Nov 17, 2013)

looks like the tour is over. this tour is getting more uninteresting


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

love4himies said:


> How far down will Ritchie fall?
> 
> Great ride by veteran Chris Horner. Didn't come in the top 10, but fantastic ride by him.


in other news: Horner beaten by Schleck


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## Roger H (Feb 8, 2002)

chizhang001001 said:


> looks like the tour is over. this tour is getting more uninteresting


Yep. It's getting a little boring.....


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Yellow and green are all but wrapped up. All thats left are the white and polk-a-dot and nobody really cares about those.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

den bakker said:


> in other news: Horner beaten by Schleck


Now that the Schleck's are so unpopular, it is ok to support them. I am rooting for Frank now, I hope he has some good results the next couple years.
Too bad about andy though.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Skewer said:


> Yellow and green are all but wrapped up. All thats left are the white and polk-a-dot and nobody really cares about those.


Pretty premature to say this race is over. There's still 7 stages plus all the Pyrenees. Plenty of time for Nibali to have a bad day, though I want to see him win. Movistar looked really strong today.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Nibali surely staked his claim today. Good move. Plus, he looked very strong.

Is it all over? Not quite - Nibali has to cover.

There are four mountain stages remaining. It is almost impossible for Nibali to win all four. So, he has to lose time to someone.

The MJ can almost always hold position on a flat stage, and time differences for Time Trials at the top of the standings are matters of a minute or less, not 3-4 minutes.

So, the mountain stages are the focus of the end-game.

Since Nibali cannot win all four mountain stages, he logically must lose time to someone who decides to ride hard one of these four days.

That person or those people will be from among the top 8 - all within 6 1/2 minutes of overall lead. If things go the right way for a challenger, any of many of these guys could pick up a couple minutes or more. Riders from far down the rankings will decide to get some single-day glory, and the top-eight challengers can grab on that wheel. The more Nibali is covered, the more likely he will have one mountain where he cracks.

These elite riders can hang together as they did today, with each having the occassional weak day, like Porte had today. But today may be unusual due to the long exposure to heat experienced before hitting an Alp.

Valverde is totally threatening.

This question gets pondered every year, but could this be the year when the final stage determines the winner? The final stretch to Paris, of 20 or 25 miles, approaches Paris from the south; the long-range forecast call for wind out of the north. Not much for building a breakaway, but hey, some crazy things have happened this year.


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## bradkay (Nov 5, 2013)

"Stage 13 is a rough one. Normally, this type of stage, at this point in the race, would be the point where the race really begins. With some challenging stages early on, this year has been different. Yet, the contest does genuinely begin here. All GC contenders are clustered at the top of the overall rankings, within minutes of each other - the type of time differences that are gained or lost on each of these serious mountain stages. Nibali will have to come out of hiding to defend.

This should be some good viewing.

Overall, about 115 miles. No big deal, I have done that unsupported. But there are a couple speed bumps along the way that are sch great speed bumps, they have been given names: Col du Lautaret (French for "My quads are cramping") and Col de Izoard (French for "Iz I crazee?!?! -I could be down there sipping Beaujolais with Spartacus and Andy Schleck!"). Then, an uphill finish in Risoul that seems to flatten out only for the final KM, a straight run into town."

"So, I will just flip that into the discussion for Saturday. Today's stage is NOT the kind where you could say it is time to really being paying attention."


Now I see why you created the thread criticizing Cancellara - you have no real understanding of the sport. You completely dismiss a stage that finishes on a Hors Categorie climb with a Cat 1 climb in the last 60km. You say "115 miles. No big deal, I have done that unsupported" about a stage going over one of the giants of the Alps and finishes on a Cat 1 climb. Have you ever ridden any of these passes? Have you any idea of how tough it is to even stay with the grupetto, much less the leaders of the Tour? 

Before you go around criticizing these guys and putting down their efforts, I suggest that you try to join them. Barring that, go ride "La Marmotte" or an "Etape du Tour". While neither of those rides is anywhere near the intensity of riding the tour doing so might humble you enough to stop belittling their efforts.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

bradkay said:


> Now I see why you created the thread criticizing Cancellara - you have no real understanding of the sport. You completely dismiss a stage that finishes on a Hors Categorie climb with a Cat 1 climb in the last 60km. You say "115 miles. No big deal, I have done that unsupported" about a stage going over one of the giants of the Alps and finishes on a Cat climb. Have you ever ridden any of these passes? Have you any idea of how tough it is to even stay with the grupetto, much less the leaders of the Tour?


Concerning my estimation of the difficulty of this Alp-strewn 115-mile ride, I was being sarcastic, and really was putting myself down in that statement.

It is the internets, so I guess I need to put a sarcasm tag there. Will do next time.

I like to watch TdF because I cannot ride like that. It is a spectator sport. It was invented to sell daily newspapers. To get people doing armchair-quarterbacking in cafes all over France because that is good for business.

And that is what RBR folks are doing here. Less than in years past, since the TdF is losing popularity even among regular cyclists. The negative talk about LA would fill a phone book, yet none of us could outride LA on a clean day.

I understand that. I can still criticize a riders' judgment and so on, within limits.


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## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

den bakker said:


> in other news: Horner beaten by Schleck


Yeah but Horner was pacing Costa today... He's looking good for the Vuelta, that's going to be an EPIC race.


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## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

One other thought: TVG can probably TT better than anyone else ahead of him in the GC except Nibali and potentially Valverde. If things break his way, he has a good shot at a podium. Podium in the Tour is nothing to sneeze at.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Hiro11 said:


> Yeah but Horner was pacing Costa today... He's looking good for the Vuelta, that's going to be an EPIC race.


If it stays hot for the rest of the tour, I bet Horner climbs up the GC a bit, would love to see him make it into the top 10. He loves racing in the heat.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Hiro11 said:


> One other thought: TVG can probably TT better than anyone else ahead of him in the GC except Nibali and potentially Valverde. If things break his way, he has a good shot at a podium. Podium in the Tour is nothing to sneeze at.


Finishing the Tour is nothing to sneeze at, in my books, but to podium is amazing.


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## Rich Gibson (Jul 26, 2013)

den bakker said:


> in other news: Horner beaten by Schleck


Horner dropped back to drag his team lead back. Frank will crack.
Rich


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

Rich Gibson said:


> Horner dropped back to drag his team lead back. Frank will crack.
> Rich


Lighten up.


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## hfc (Jan 24, 2003)

I think Nibs has it locked up, barring, of course, big crash, or Rasmussen-like time trial. Still has been and I think will continue to be a great Tour. I don't see Valverde as a huge threat; he's not one to excel on multiple big climb days and I think the Pyrenees will drop him out of the top 5. Good show today by The Jay.

I was glad to see Schleck flashing up near the front of the race, but have never been a big fan of the brothers S. I'll never forget how they blew the L-B-L when they were off the front with I think Gilbert, did absolutely nothing and let him take the win.


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## upstateSC-rider (Aug 21, 2004)

Hiro11 said:


> One other thought: TVG can probably TT better than anyone else ahead of him in the GC except Nibali and potentially Valverde. If things break his way, he has a good shot at a podium. Podium in the Tour is nothing to sneeze at.


That's what I was wondering, how much better is teejay than #3 or #4?

On a sidenote, what is Sky's Plan C?


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

sky plan b is stupid. whats riis plan b? what's garmins plan b?


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## duriel (Oct 10, 2013)

This race is OVER!!!!

No one still riding can match that thumb sucker!


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

foto said:


> sky plan b is stupid. whats riis plan b? what's garmins plan b?


I know Garmin didn't have a plan B going in. Not sure why, maybe because they were saving their GC hopefuls for races they may have a chance to podium at, but judging from the crashes at the Tour, they may have more competition than they expected at the Vuelta.


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## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

love4himies said:


> If it stays hot for the rest of the tour, I bet Horner climbs up the GC a bit, would love to see him make it into the top 10. He loves racing in the heat.


If Lampre lets Horner of the lease a bit, he's going to be dangerous in the Pyrenees.


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