# Paris-Roubaix Discussion



## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

Cancellara's chances of a repeat just got better: 

Super favourite Tom Boonen was clearly unable to answer the attack from Alessandro Ballan (Lampre) and Leif Hoste (Predictor) on the Muur van Geraardsbergen. The Belgian star's chances of a third consecutive victory were blown up in a massive crash in the bunch near Kortrijk after only 60km; apparently there was water on the road due to works next to the road, making it a slippery affair for the peloton. The Belgian suffered a bruised knee and wrist, but he continued the race anyway, eventually finishing 12th. 

"I said it before that you must be extremely lucky to survive crashes three years in a row. It's clear that you can't win the Ronde at 99 percent of your possibilities," Boonen said on Sporza. "Still, I was beaten at my best," he added, not wanting to take away from Ballan's win. 

When the finale was coming closer, Boonen's team-mate Kevin Hulsmans came over to his captain to ask how he was feeling, but Boonen didn't answer his question. "I said: don't ask, just do; because when you're thinking about it, doubts arise quickly," explained Boonen, whose participation in Gent-Wevelgem was already uncertain and now looks even less realistic with Paris-Roubaix coming up in just one week. 

"I don't know if I'll be able to start, we'll have to examine the wrist first," he said. 

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2007/apr07/apr09news


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

I'd say there are 4 equal co-favorites going in; Ballan, Hoste, Cancellera & Boonen.

I think Boonen confirmed at the Ronde what many suspected, that his form just isn't that good right now. I'd actually put him down a notch below the other 3 except he's been so good in the past Boonen and the rest have to get rid of him or there's a 90+% chance he'll take out a sprint.


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

I can't disagree. 

I've always been a big Flecha fan. I'm not sure how his form is this year, but P-R always suprises. I'm hoping he's one.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Well I was thinking Ballan for P-R*

and he suprised me at R-v-V. He's got great form, looked head and shoulders above the rest, but that was on THAT day. P-R.....? I like Cancellara but this race is really hard to win back to back. Again, you have to be good and lucky.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Hoste is my first pick to win PR and if Hoste fails then I think it will be Ballan.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

Pablo said:


> I can't disagree.
> 
> I've always been a big Flecha fan. I'm not sure how his form is this year, but P-R always suprises. I'm hoping he's one.


He showed himself several weeks ago (Het Volk maybe?) but has pretty much disappeared since. But I think he pretty much came out of nowhere last year with a stellar ride at Roubaix, so he might just be hiding his form.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*good news*

Maggy's Back. He's gonna race P-R.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

atpjunkie said:


> Maggy's Back. He's gonna race P-R.


I've considered him but I'm not aware of any indicators that his form is good enough.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

I haven't seen a start list, but how about Bennati instead of Ballan for this one? He was up there till near the very end at RvV, and without all the climbs he could be one of the strongmen for sure.

Out of the other favorites, he is the only one that I think could beat Boonen in a straight up sprint. That is of course if Cancellara doesn't ride away from everyone again. Every indication is that he has that sort of form going into it though.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*he's feeling good*



rocco said:


> I've considered him but I'm not aware of any indicators that his form is good enough.


he was staying 'close' (like his TT performance in Spain) while riding well below max.

he has, as they say, good morale and good senations


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## Kris Flatlander (Sep 9, 2006)

It's Hoste for me, but boy would it be nice to see Maggy take charge again


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

Good feelings and moral can go out the window pretty quickly over the cobbles.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

Kris Flatlander said:


> It's Hoste for me, but boy would it be nice to see Maggy take charge again


Lets be honest here, as nice a guy as Magnus is, he won't ever see the podium of P-R again. Look at his palmares. If it wasn't for that one great day in 2004, pretty much nothing. A stage at the TdF in 1998 is the only other win of note (I don't know, but I'd be willing to bet it was a breakaway that was allowed to go. A Voeckler if you will)


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

I'm afarid your right, although he rode pretty darn well in '05 when Boonen won. Luckily, no one will ever be able to take his victory away from the Clydesdales.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Magnus*

if he can remain injury free (he's been plagued with injuries it seems)
can win another stone
here me now
he's been in the hunt more than once at P-R


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## Pedro (Feb 25, 2006)

Everyone's gonna be watching Cancellara like a hawk but I think he'll pull it off again. He's such a strong time trialler that if he goes at the right time and gets any gap - he's gone. Even if a rider or two latch-on he'll ride 'em off his wheel. I'm assuming he won't crash of course. I like Boonen, but if he's still got nagging injuries going into the race I'm not confident in his chances.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

The weather looks good for Sunday... too bad. Still it's a crap-shoot. I'll take Pozzato.


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## MellowDramatic (Jun 8, 2006)

FLECHA. More wishful thinking than anything else, but I would love to see him win.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Ya know... more I think about it I'm thinking Tommeke might come out of a week's rest... recovered and hotter than all season. 

Remember how he tore up Flanders last year and didn't quite have it next Sunday? D'ya think he learnt a lesson? I don't know either.

And Fabian, after a nice interval session last Saturday and a moderate hard ride... oh Wednesday or so... just to put a real fine edge on the blade maybe... hmm... dang this is fun.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

Creakyknees said:


> Ya know... more I think about it I'm thinking Tommeke might come out of a week's rest... recovered and hotter than all season.
> 
> Remember how he tore up Flanders last year and didn't quite have it next Sunday? D'ya think he learnt a lesson? I don't know either.
> 
> And Fabian, after a nice interval session last Saturday and a moderate hard ride... oh Wednesday or so... just to put a real fine edge on the blade maybe... hmm... dang this is fun.


I'd agree with all that. I get chills watching Fabian apply the power and start to ride people off his wheel. 2006 PR, 2007 E3, and this past RvV (though it didn't amount to much). It seems once he gets that engine going, forget about it.

With PR being not as hilly as the Belgian races, it sets up perfect for him too. There won't be enough hills to allow people to close the gap once he puts the pedal to the metal.


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## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

PR is not hilly at all.

Last year, Cancellara's attack on the cobbles shed all chasers away. If he does this again on Sunday, he will win. Only a few (Tom) might hold his wheel. Cancellara may come under some nasty team tactics marking him, but if the cobbles are bad he is g-g-g-gone.


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## mtbbmet (Apr 2, 2005)

I'm taking an outside bet on Disco.
Be it Devolder, Gusev, or Vaitkus.
Not sure which one yet, but I have good feelings about Gusev. Just hope he don't get DQ'd again.
Flame away.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Gusev and Vaitkus*

is a good longshot call


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## MaestroXC (Sep 15, 2005)

mtbbmet said:


> I'm taking an outside bet on Disco.
> Be it Devolder, Gusev, or Vaitkus.
> Not sure which one yet, but I have good feelings about Gusev. Just hope he don't get DQ'd again.
> Flame away.


I agree. Disco was very active in Flanders, I think like last year they'll have a few guys able to make the final selection and at the very least get on the podium.

That said, I'd like to see O'Grady take home the rock, and I hope that Tyler Farrar is able to show his face and do something. That guy is the US's best hope for a PR victory in the next 10 years, mark my words.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Aside from the obvious favorites I like

Steffen Wessemen
Raivis Belohshoviks
Leon Van Bon


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

OnTheRivet said:


> Aside from the obvious favorites I like
> 
> Steffen Wessemen
> Raivis Belohshoviks
> Leon Van Bon


Good long shot might be Scheirlinckx, he's ridden pretty good in the past at Roubaix, was good at Flanders but really gets almost no press. I'd love to see Franzoi be able to ride for himself and try to make the finale.


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## mtbbmet (Apr 2, 2005)

atpjunkie said:


> Maggy's Back. He's gonna race P-R.



He just beat Savoldelli in a 8.8km ITT. I'd say his form is good.


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## MaestroXC (Sep 15, 2005)

MaestroXC said:


> and I hope that Tyler Farrar is able to show his face and do something. That guy is the US's best hope for a PR victory in the next 10 years, mark my words.


Aaaaand, dammit. Tyler breaks his kneecap today in G-W, on the descent that seemed to take everyone else out as well, thanks to sketchy riding and water bottles bouncing all over the place.


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

MaestroXC said:


> Aaaaand, dammit. Tyler breaks his kneecap today in G-W, on the descent that seemed to take everyone else out as well, thanks to sketchy riding and water bottles bouncing all over the place.


I feel bad for him and American cycling, but isn't sketchy riding and water bottles flying out of cages just par for the course in the Classics?


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Good long shot might be Scheirlinckx, he's ridden pretty good in the past at Roubaix, was good at Flanders but really gets almost no press. I'd love to see Franzoi be able to ride for himself and try to make the finale.


It surprises me that Nijs hasn't made the jump fully to the road. He had some great P-R rides a few years ago with just residual cross fitness. It seems he's done everything in cross and a classics win would be next on the agenda but he isn't even on the Rabo start list.


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

Wasn't Roger Hammond a big cyclocrosser? I thought that he talked about how hard of a transition it is from 'cross to the road.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

OnTheRivet said:


> It surprises me that Nijs hasn't made the jump fully to the road. He had some great P-R rides a few years ago with just residual cross fitness. It seems he's done everything in cross and a classics win would be next on the agenda but he isn't even on the Rabo start list.


I think Nijs makes too much money on cross and likes it too much to potentially sacrifice his status there by committing to the road. Andri Vanderpol was the last guy to do both really successfully. Although I believe Nijs rode the Tour of Belgium last year and did fairly well.

Franzoi has not had the same results in cyclocross he was getting prior to riding full road seasons with Lampre, and he really hasn't achieved anything on the road other than showing himself in day-long breaks.

The closest anyone has come to real success in both recently are Gadret and Boom. Gadret was riding to a near podium place in the Giro last year before he broke his collarbone and has his moments in cross. Boom gets good results in both. But neither of those guys ride full cross seasons.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

Pablo said:


> Wasn't Roger Hammond a big cyclocrosser? I thought that he talked about how hard of a transition it is from 'cross to the road.


He was junior world champion. He rode some cross races up until a few years ago when his road team wouldn't allow him to do so.


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## mtbbmet (Apr 2, 2005)

Hammond still does the occasional cross race. He was the 05 british champ, and was in contention for the repeat last year till he rode off the course. He loves it, and will continue to do it on a limited basis.
And I would say that 3rd at world's is pretty good for Franzoi. I think that you are talking out of your backside about him having better seasons before he was riding FT on the road. He has never been any better than he has the last two years. I would say he has remained rather constant.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

mtbbmet said:


> I think that you are talking out of your backside about him having better seasons before he was riding FT on the road. He has never been any better than he has the last two years. I would say he has remained rather constant.


I guess we'll have to disagree or maybe I'll go and look up some results. My impressons are that his season 3 years ago he was pretty consistently making the front selection at the big races throughout the season and often in the hunt for the podium. Last couple he typically doesn't finish as high and world's last year was really an exceptional ride.

Looked up world rankings, I guess I thought his slip started earlier than it really did 

2007 16th
2006 7th
2005 6th

So definitely last season was subpar. When did he first do his full season with Lampre?

Was it last year or two years ago?

Looked that up as well. I don't see him listed until the 2006 team. So I'll stand by my contention that the road season has hurt his cyclocross, I just thought it started a year earlier.


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## jukebox (Sep 6, 2005)

mtbbmet said:


> I'm taking an outside bet on Disco.
> Be it Devolder, Gusev, or Vaitkus.
> Not sure which one yet, but I have good feelings about Gusev. Just hope he don't get DQ'd again.
> Flame away.


+1

Or Flecha.


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

Dwayne Barry said:


> I think Nijs makes too much money on cross and likes it too much to potentially sacrifice his status there by committing to the road.


I agree. He's the king of cross. Why risk that?


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## mtbbmet (Apr 2, 2005)

Look harder.
Franzoi turned pro in 2005 with Lampre. Before that he rode for the Saeco Elite development team. He rode a full northern classics program in 05 and 06 and finished his first P-R in 05 in a very respectable 30th. Last year he was co captain of the P-R team with Ballan but only finished 56th.
So there's that.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

mtbbmet said:


> Look harder.


No, I'll take your word for it. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if he can get back to the top in cyclocross continueing to ride full road seasons. Or maybe he'll adopt the Boom strategy or stop road racing sooner in season.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*and he said he did that*



mtbbmet said:


> He just beat Savoldelli in a 8.8km ITT. I'd say his form is good.


on just above base fitness and exertion


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*and was British CX Nat champ*

I think he did a few cx races in Disco kits


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*the last 2 seasons*

he had some injuries. he crashed out in the classics 2005 Ghent
and 2006 P-R hurt his standings

I think he also crashed a dragster


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

atpjunkie said:


> on just above base fitness and exertion


You're not impressed by a 5 mile ride? I'm shocked. He's obviously going to win Roubaix now.


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## rogger (Aug 19, 2005)

Creakyknees said:


> The weather looks good for Sunday... too bad. Still it's a crap-shoot. I'll take Pozzato.


There's no "good" weather in Paris-Roubaix, it's either mud or dust. It hasn't rained much in Northern France for the last couple of weeks so the dust clouds will probably be blinding anyone but those pulling the race.


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

Good point. "A Sunday in Hell" shows that even good weather is pretty dusty. Still, I think a lot of us are holding out for epic weather, a la 1994.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

Pablo said:


> Good point. "A Sunday in Hell" shows that even good weather is pretty dusty. Still, I think a lot of us are holding out for epic weather, a la 1994.


I admit to wanting "epic" weather, however I gotta realize that It's rare that I would ride in the rain for 30 miles, so perhaps I should understand that they don't want to do it for 250km. 

In other words, I'll take what I can get!


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

I can't watch the race... :mad2: :mad2:


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## rogger (Aug 19, 2005)

uzziefly said:


> I can't watch the race... :mad2: :mad2:


Hah-hah!


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