# Schleks/Armstrong and Today's Stage



## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Andy Schlek tested the water today and found himself out of his depth - pathetic. Neither he nor any of the other contenders look interested in taking the fight to Astana except perhaps for Evans.
On the last climb Astana controlled the peleton but the pace set by Kloden and LL was sooo slow they lost time to the breakaway and got caught by the following Yellow Jersey group. Was this as fast as Lance could manage and they were nannying him up to the top?
Thank goodness that AC is around to provide some entertainment.

At least Sanchez rode a great stage and proved that Pinarellos are the fastest bikes.:thumbsup:


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## twiggy (Mar 23, 2004)

Interesting view point, but I'd probably hold myself short of using words like 'pathetic' to describe the efforts of Andy Schleck....that is, of course, unless you can do better?


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

Only a tubby armchair cyclist would call schleck pathetic :thumbsup:


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## philoanna (Dec 2, 2007)

I don't think Astana pushed because they don't want yellow yet. 
I think Lance and Dirty Bertie are both douchebags, but they know what they are doing.
If Lance is hoping that he will be close to Conti for the TT, he will probably be very sorry. Conti is TTing well. Lance probably can't even TT as well as Levi now so he better drop him lest he wants third overall or lower.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Astana did not want yellow today. When the yellow jersey caught up with them they slowed down _so they would not drop him._


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Nothing I have seen Cadel do since the Dauphine up until now attack wise has amounted to anything. The dude just seems to fire blanks.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Erm, Schleck went and then realized he wasn't gonna shed anyone. So why go harder today when he's not a good descender at all?

Klöden and Levi went slower because Armstrong couldn't keep up? Erm, think energy saving and not wanting to waste efforts to distance the yellow jersey group anyway since all the big guys are in the Astana group.

They showed that they wanted to control things, no one else came to the front, so job done. Intentions shown. Cards are in their hands. Also, it was useful to slow down to let Zubeldia catch up so they had a climbing domestique to fetch bottles etc as that was what he did when he was in their group again.

If anything, it shows domination and intention to take control, along with a message that says : We're gonna go hard if we want and you can either tag along or drop back. Today, we just like being in front.


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Except for Conty's little sprint up the hill yesterday, The race is going just like Astana wants it.


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## twiggy (Mar 23, 2004)

jd3 said:


> Except for Conty's little sprint up the hill yesterday, The race is going just like Astana wants it.


If they're still "letting the strongest man be leader" then I'd say that should have been what they wanted anyways....


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## fatctycycl (Nov 9, 2003)

Schelck didn't go to put time on his rivals. He went to try and drop the yellow jersey, forcing Contador into that position and Astana to defend (and perhaps keeping Lance from attacking Contador). It tactics like this that will allow someone other than Lance or Contador a chance at winning.


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## nOOky (Mar 20, 2009)

I think Andy has more in him than what he went with. It looked to me like he was testing the others, almost looking for someone to go with him. I think in the Alps he's going to launch some hellacious attacks, if they don't stick they'll surely give the others some heart ache.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

saird said:


> Only a tubby armchair cyclist would call schleck pathetic :thumbsup:


Wrong! The tubby ones call Evans pathetic:thumbsup: 

It's this skinny one who calls Schlek pathetic. He attacked like a wet rag today


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

albert owen said:


> Andy Schlek tested the water today and found himself out of his depth - pathetic. Neither he nor any of the other contenders look interested in taking the fight to Astana except perhaps for Evans.
> On the last climb Astana controlled the peleton but the pace set by Kloden and LL was sooo slow they lost time to the breakaway and got caught by the following Yellow Jersey group. Was this as fast as Lance could manage and they were nannying him up to the top?
> Thank goodness that AC is around to provide some entertainment.
> 
> At least Sanchez rode a great stage and proved that Pinarellos are the fastest bikes.:thumbsup:



Please explain how Astana doing anymore work than they did today would have been advantageous for them... including Contador.


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## 5500OCLV (Jul 11, 2009)

albert owen said:


> Was this as fast as Lance could manage and they were nannying him up to the top?


Go back to watching baseball.


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## medimond (Apr 26, 2009)

Honestly I think Astana is just executing their Master Plan. Would you rather be on defense all of the time, or be positioned on the offense? You have to look at the entire Tour Holistically. When you look at it day by day it's not going to make a lot of sense. 

Lance isn't worried about our entertainment value! The tour isn't some crazy three hour effort (basketball, football or baseball). The tour is a 21 day endurance fest! You have to be upright on a bike on the 21st day and there are many things that you have to do make it possible.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

albert owen said:


> Andy Schlek tested the water today and found himself out of his depth - pathetic. Neither he nor any of the other contenders look interested in taking the fight to Astana except perhaps for Evans.
> On the last climb Astana controlled the peleton but the pace set by Kloden and LL was sooo slow they lost time to the breakaway and got caught by the following Yellow Jersey group. Was this as fast as Lance could manage and they were nannying him up to the top?
> Thank goodness that AC is around to provide some entertainment.
> 
> At least Sanchez rode a great stage and proved that Pinarellos are the fastest bikes.:thumbsup:


This is an absurd analysis & demonstrates a lack of knowledge about stage reacing.

Today was a downhill finish at the end of the first week of the tour. Why would any GC contender expend unnecessary energy with so little opportunity of gaining any time?

Watch the next mountain stage closely..........notice how fragmented the peleton gets on the uphill & then notice how quickly they regroup on the downhills & then think about this stage.

Len


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## lnin0 (Apr 8, 2002)

Andy was never intending on swimming. He was testing the water but only to see who might run hot and cold. It is a game of poker out there and if you get someone to give up their tell, you never know when it will come in handy. 

He was well aware that their would be no point in going over the top alone with a 40 second gap on Astana and a 30 mile ride into the finish.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

lnin0 said:


> Andy was never intending on swimming. He was testing the water but only to see who might run hot and cold. It is a game of poker out there and if you get someone to give up their tell, you never know when it will come in handy.
> 
> He was well aware that their would be no point in going over the top alone with a 40 second gap on Astana and a 30 mile ride into the finish.



In last year's race the Schleks were so busy playing "poker" with the other contenders that Sastre just took off and won the whole thing by being the better racer.
Tactics are for people who lack confidence in their ability to win. Contador didn't need tactics yesterday, he just rode away.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

albert owen said:


> In last year's race the Schleks were so busy playing "poker" with the other contenders that Sastre just took off and won the whole thing by being the better racer.
> Tactics are for people who lack confidence in their ability to win. Contador didn't need tactics yesterday, he just rode away.


did you notice who the schlecks were teammates with? lol


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

den bakker said:


> did you notice who the schlecks were teammates with? lol


Absolutely. That's one of the reasons they were completely outwitted and why Sastre then moved on to Cervelo. Not wholly dissimilar to this year's politicing at Astana.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

albert owen said:


> Absolutely. That's one of the reasons they were completely outwitted and why Sastre then moved on to Cervelo. Not wholly dissimilar to this year's politicing at Astana.


What? You are like the worst person ever at race analysis.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

albert owen said:


> Tactics are for people who lack confidence in their ability to win.


LOL

Quote of the Tour so far.

Thanks for the laugh

len


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

albert owen said:


> Tactics are for people who lack confidence in their ability to win.



???????????????????????



Also, the Carlos Sastre victory last year was result of CSC's good tactics. Nobody was paying very much attention to Sastre because Schleck was in yellow. At just the right time, he attacked and secured yellow. He did not "go" because Frank was playing tactical tiddlywinks; he went because the entire team knew that Frank Schleck couldn't time-trial worth a hoot, and Frank wearing yellow into the TT meant Cadel Evans wearing yellow into Paris. What the Schlecks were doing on that climb was playing the field _for the purpose_ of Sastre making his move. It was tactical brilliance on the part of CSC, and it won the Tour.

Honestly, Contador's "heroic" attack wasn't really that great. It only gained him 2 seconds on Armstrong and fired up more media speculation over the team's unity.  Now European newspapers are calling Contador a hero that decisively destroyed the competition, and American newspapers are calling him a punk that is trying to betray his holiness Lance Armstrong. I haven't heard a single pro (who are usually quick to congratulate someone, even an opponent, on a good move) say anything good about Contador's move. Not the people on his team, not his DS, not Andy Schleck, not anyone who is really in the game and understands the sport better than any of us who have not ridden in the pro peloton.

My humble opinion,

-Chris-


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## jsedlak (Jun 17, 2008)

DZfan14 said:


> Nothing I have seen Cadel do since the Dauphine up until now attack wise has amounted to anything. The dude just seems to fire blanks.


While he may be firing blanks, at least he is doing something. I am glad to see him actually try to attack rather than think he can win simply by wheel sucking. With a little more patience and better tactics I think he has the chance to pull back some time. 

As far as I am concerned what Cadel needs to do is send his team to the front on the next mountain top finish and drive the pace up to an absolutely insane speed before the base. Then he needs to just ride everyone off his wheel with a steady lung wrenching pace. It is clear his TTing ability is better, so use it.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Are you suggesting that Sastre wasn't also competing with his team mates in 2008? Or that he didn't blow them away on the 17th stage and take Yellow from Frank Schlek? Or that the seeds of his falling out with Riis and his leaving for Cervelo weren't sown during last year's TdF?

If you are, then I'll trade tactics lessons from you for a couple of history lessons.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

albert owen said:


> Are you suggesting that Sastre wasn't also competing with his team mates in 2008? Or that he didn't blow them away on the 17th stage and take Yellow from Frank Schlek? Or that the seeds of his falling out with Riis and his leaving for Cervelo weren't sown during last year's TdF?
> 
> If you are, then I'll trade tactics lessons from you for a couple of history lessons.


I'll step up to the plate and suggest that. CSC/Saxo was praised for riding as a team last year. Without his teammates, Sastre never would have gotten away. Historize me!


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

albert owen said:


> Wrong! The tubby ones call Evans pathetic:thumbsup:
> 
> It's this skinny one who calls Schlek pathetic. He attacked like a wet rag today



Whatever you say tubs :thumbsup:


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

albert owen said:


> Are you suggesting that Sastre wasn't also competing with his team mates in 2008? Or that he didn't blow them away on the 17th stage and take Yellow from Frank Schlek? Or that the seeds of his falling out with Riis and his leaving for Cervelo weren't sown during last year's TdF?
> 
> If you are, then I'll trade tactics lessons from you for a couple of history lessons.



Albert Owen,

I am not trying to give you tactics lessons. Also, I will not take the path of insulting the competence of your race analysis. I do enjoy talking about race tactics though, and I presented my perspective which is different than yours in the spirit of good conversation.

The history lesson will be unnecessary, I watched every minute of every stage in the Tour last year. I do not think that Sastre was "competing" with Frank Schleck. If that were the case, then I think that both Schlecks would have followed Sastre up the road. It was a vicious attack, but I think that Frank and Andy could have hung (at least close enough to keep yellow). Bjarne Riis is not an idiot, and I cannot imagine that he wanted Frank Schleck defending yellow in the TT. As I see it, Alpe D'uez in 2008 played out exactly how Riis wanted it to. 

I think the seeds of the Sastre/CSC split were sown after the TDF. It has been suggested that Sastre did not get the recognition from the team that he deserved and that Riis wanted to form the team around Andy this year, perhaps favoring Andy's youth over Sastre's experience. I also think that Sastre has stronger feelings for the equipment that he uses and definitively prefers Cervelo over the Specialized bikes that CSC switched to. That may have been a small factor. 


It is my belief that it is impossible to win a Grand Tour without the use of strong tactics.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

I think Andy Schlek was off form today, possibly he had forgotten to eat. Yes his attack seemed half hearted but he had 2 attempts at taking a bottle from Cancellara then threw it away. He then went back to the car and again took a bottle which he threw away and finally appeared to take a can of fizzy drink. Its really difficult to maintain focus and concentration even for the most gifted riders.


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

baker921 said:


> possibly he had forgotten to eat.


Dropping a couple of pounds might do him some good, it didn't do any harm to bradley wiggins


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Imho*



thechriswebb said:


> Albert Owen,
> 
> I am not trying to give you tactics lessons. Also, I will not take the path of insulting the competence of your race analysis. I do enjoy talking about race tactics though, and I presented my perspective which is different than yours in the spirit of good conversation.
> 
> ...


last year, the Schlecks served as decoy
Sastre was the man and they served his victory up perfectly
and this analysis would fall perfectly under Riis playbook


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

albert owen said:


> Are you suggesting that Sastre wasn't also competing with his team mates in 2008? Or that he didn't blow them away on the 17th stage and take Yellow from Frank Schlek? Or that the seeds of his falling out with Riis and his leaving for Cervelo weren't sown during last year's TdF?
> 
> If you are, then I'll trade tactics lessons from you for a couple of history lessons.


Andy Schlecks riding on stage 17 speaks for itself. He shut down everything in the chase group and never went himself even though it was clear to most he was not near his limit. 
Keep the history lessons


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

fatctycycl said:


> Schelck didn't go to put time on his rivals. He went to try and drop the yellow jersey, forcing Contador into that position and Astana to defend (and perhaps keeping Lance from attacking Contador). It tactics like this that will allow someone other than Lance or Contador a chance at winning.


Exactly, what I thought. But, having Andy go it alone (without Schleck the Elder) wouldn't cause a reaction unless he had bolted further ahead. This make me think he was just testing his legs and letting the other GC climbers know he had plenty left in his tank. No big deal, and hence no big reaction.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

He's already listed at 6'1" 150 lbs!


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

In the spirit of goodwill and harmony, I'll simply agree to differ with you all. I obviously read last year's stage 17 and Sastre's relationship with Riis completely differently.

As far as tactics are concerned - By definition, if you have two equal forces then tactics come into play. A weaker force can occasionally prevail against a stronger force through the use of good tactics. I say again - a superior force has no need for tactics....


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

albert owen said:


> As far as tactics are concerned - By definition, if you have two equal forces then tactics come into play. A weaker force can occasionally prevail against a stronger force through the use of good tactics. I say again - a superior force has no need for tactics....



Riding tempo at the front is a tactic that teams with "superior force" use all the time. Deciding when to ride tempo and when not to ride tempo is a tactical decision. Saying they don't need tactics is like saying the superior football team does not need "plays" to win the superbowl... it ignores the basics of the sport.

Astana's team strength is the REASON for their CHOICE in tactics... it is not reason to abandon tactics entirely.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

I think that you are certainly correct by your definition of the term. Astana ride tempo at the front of the Peleton could be described as a tactic. However, if this is the case then the word has very little meaning. I see the word as implying great thought and cunning is involved in the decision to ride at the front. 

I see tactics as a means by which inferior overcomes superior forces by guile, psychology and superior intelligence. With radios in use this hardly ever applies to cycling.
I, therefore, still maintain that (for example) Contador blowing Armstrong away on the Ventoux (I hope) will be down to physical ability and willpower not intelligence and guile.


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## danl1 (Jul 23, 2005)

albert owen said:


> As far as tactics are concerned - By definition, if you have two equal forces then tactics come into play. A weaker force can occasionally prevail against a stronger force through the use of good tactics. I say again - a superior force has no need for tactics....


You are obviously attempting to make parallels to warfare... In which case you are hopelessly misguided. Weaker forces commonly prevail against greater forces through the use of tactics: The USA would not be a country and Viet Nam would be a democracy if this weren't true. 

And that fact - that the lesser opponent can prevail - proves conculsively that tactics are critical. The strong fail only because of poor tactical decisions. 

As for cycling, the analysis is further misguided. Force differentials out on the road are limited by human physiology, meaning that every team is essentially equal. Sure some are stacked a bit stronger, but on any given day any random domestique can go up the road. It's simply not possible to amass 'overwhelming force' on the bike... And if you do, the opposing team can easily take advantage of that strength. 

A simple example: A drafting rider uses 20-30% less energy than one out in the wind. The 'superior force' you imagine would need to be 30-40% stronger to purely overwhelm - and human physiology makes that impossible. Hence, tactics reign supreme.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*huh, who is this person*



albert owen said:


> In last year's race the Schleks were so busy playing "poker" with the other contenders that Sastre just took off and won the whole thing by being the better racer.
> Tactics are for people who lack confidence in their ability to win. Contador didn't need tactics yesterday, he just rode away.


Eddy Merckx used tactics, Coppi, Hinault, Moser, Sean Kelly etc etc etc

These folks are Cycling Gods and the notion that tactics are for the weak is at best,IMPAIRED.

How do you think AC just rode away? WOW, this a whopper


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*huh*



albert owen said:


> I think that you are certainly correct by your definition of the term. Astana ride tempo at the front of the Peleton could be described as a tactic. However, if this is the case then the word has very little meaning. I see the word as implying great thought and cunning is involved in the decision to ride at the front.
> 
> I see tactics as a means by which inferior overcomes superior forces by guile, psychology and superior intelligence. With radios in use this hardly ever applies to cycling.
> I, therefore, still maintain that (for example) Contador blowing Armstrong away on the Ventoux (I hope) will be down to physical ability and willpower not intelligence and guile.


You have zero concept of professional racing at all. Most of the folks racing at that level are near equal, strtegy, experience etc etc work to foil an opponent. Its pure tactics and it is a pure joy to watch. Its been that way since I recall Merckx and in his prime, Eddy would have been waiting for AC every day.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

albert owen said:


> I think that you are certainly correct by your definition of the term. Astana ride tempo at the front of the Peleton could be described as a tactic. However, if this is the case then the word has very little meaning. I see the word as implying great thought and cunning is involved in the decision to ride at the front.
> 
> I see tactics as a means by which inferior overcomes superior forces by guile, psychology and superior intelligence. With radios in use this hardly ever applies to cycling.
> I, therefore, still maintain that (for example) Contador blowing Armstrong away on the Ventoux (I hope) will be down to physical ability and willpower not intelligence and guile.


It is certainly true that strong physical performances are a highlight of this sport and that there is certainly a time to "go." On the other hand, tactics are necessary to get the cyclist to the position where they can do so. We are all human and even the most impressive athletes have limits. There is a time to attack, and there is a time to cooperate with everyone else. A Grand Tour is three weeks long, and the people that win Grand Tours do so because they know how to achieve the best result at the end of that time. We obviously have different interpretations of what happened with Carlos Sastre last year, but it is noteworthy that he didn't go into the Pyrenees and attack every single climb. He hid behind the Schlecks (whether they were in on it or not) and exploded out at just the right moment. I would call that tactics, through my definition of the word. It takes a tremendous amount of strength and power (and mental toughness) to ride away from the worlds greatest athletes on a H.C. climb. That is obvious. What may not be as obvious is that to be able to accomplish that feat, he had to conserve, maneuver, and use a little bit of guile to get himself to the point where he could hit is opponents hard when they were weak. If Sastre had not played his cards exactly right, he would not have been able to pull that move off successfully, and he is one of the worlds greatest climbers. I do not think that his use of smarts belittles his physical performance at all. 

In my opinion, a strong professional cyclist, riding the Tour by himself without any regard to tactics whatsoever, would be ridden off of the time cut by the first rest day. 

Whoever blows away whoever on Ventoux, they will use tactics to get themselves to the point where they attack. The mental aspect is a big part of an athletes overall strength. 

To hear him speak, Armstrong sounds more concerned with Sastre than Contador, by the way. I would wager that it is Sastre's intelligence that Armstrong is afraid of. Physically, Contador can climb just as well as Sastre. 

I think I agree with Armstrong. Sastre may very well appear out of nowhere and take the race away from everybody who is not paying him any attention. It would be a tactical masterpiece, and I would love it. 

I am definitely a Sastre fan.


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## SwiftSolo (Jun 7, 2008)

albert owen said:


> I think that you are certainly correct by your definition of the term. Astana ride tempo at the front of the Peleton could be described as a tactic. However, if this is the case then the word has very little meaning. I see the word as implying great thought and cunning is involved in the decision to ride at the front.
> 
> I see tactics as a means by which inferior overcomes superior forces by guile, psychology and superior intelligence. With radios in use this hardly ever applies to cycling.
> I, therefore, still maintain that (for example) Contador blowing Armstrong away on the Ventoux (I hope) will be down to physical ability and willpower not intelligence and guile.


I think that everyone is trying to tell you that, no matter how superior you are, if you simply go out to win every stage of the tdf, you will not make the podium. You must conserve your energy for those occasions when you are most likely to gain time against those who matter. If you do not, the race will go to those physically inferior but tactically superior.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

SwiftSolo said:


> I think that everyone is trying to tell you that, no matter how superior you are, if you simply go out to win every stage of the tdf, you will not make the podium. You must conserve your energy for those occasions when you are most likely to gain time against those who matter. If you do not, the race will go to those physically inferior but tactically superior.


Yep, that's it in a nutshell.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

SwiftSolo said:


> I think that everyone is trying to tell you that, no matter how superior you are, if you simply go out to win every stage of the tdf, you will not make the podium. You must conserve your energy for those occasions when you are most likely to gain time against those who matter. If you do not, the race will go to those physically inferior but tactically superior.


With this I agree:thumbsup:


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

albert owen said:


> With this I agree:thumbsup:


Then we are all in agreement.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

thechriswebb said:


> Whoever blows away whoever on Ventoux, they will use tactics to get themselves to the point where they attack. The mental aspect is a big part of an athletes overall strength.
> 
> To hear him speak, Armstrong sounds more concerned with Sastre than Contador, by the way. I would wager that it is Sastre's intelligence that Armstrong is afraid of. Physically, Contador can climb just as well as Sastre.


The mental aspect is very important - and Armstrong is somewhat oddly (not!) using that against Contador. I think part of Armstrong's Sastre comments are based on the fact that Sastre is a smart and seasoned rider who tends to come into great form for the last week of the tour. On the other hand, Armstrong is also playing a mind game with Contador and the other GC contenders.

Armstrong will accept a Contador win if he has too, but he'll make Alberto earn every second of that margin over his own time.


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