# Rasmussen in Yellow Should Make for Exciting Tour.



## JohnnyChance (Dec 13, 2006)

Ok, we know Rasmussen is not as good at the ITT as the other GC contenders. And he knows this. But, he has said he wants to finish on the podium in the GC this year. So theoretically speaking, he is going to have to build tons of time in the mountains. Which I think should make for some very exciting mountain stages. None of this sissy conservative riding. He has to ride like hes behind, not like hes leading. So if he attacks while in yellow, it should make things very interesting. And if they commit Menchov to help him out, he should be able to do very little work until the last climb of every stage, where he can then fly like the chicken that he is.


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## MikeBiker (Mar 9, 2003)

As thin as Rasmussen is, I think that his stamina will prove lacking as the tour gets into the later Pyrenees stages.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

In this first TT (which is where this is going to get sorted out):

Cancellara is going to win. Anyone dispute that?
Kloden is going to get second, just like in the prologue. I *think* he can get two or three minutes on the chicken.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

*Rasmussen........*



Einstruzende said:


> In this first TT (which is where this is going to get sorted out):
> 
> Cancellara is going to win. Anyone dispute that?
> Kloden is going to get second, just like in the prologue. I *think* he can get two or three minutes on the chicken.


lost 1:16 to Canchelerra in the Prologue and 1:00 to kloden. 

No way the other contenders let him get more than about 5 minutes max.

No one is all that worried about either Mayo or Rasmussen.

Len


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## JohnnyChance (Dec 13, 2006)

i know nobody is worried about Mayo or Ras, but Rasmussen said he intends to go for the GC, and if he has to do that, hes going to have to attack like mad in the mountains, and hope he can build a big lead. I'm not saying its going to happen, but if he does this, it will be damn exciting.


edit: interesting partnership idea, mayo and ras. not that rasmussen ever seems to need help on climbs, he seems to like to solo, but let mayo get a stage win for helping ras one day. mayo could prob help him on flat parts between climbs, and on the descents (ras picks some weird lines).


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

I'm a tad confused by Rasmussen's continual talk of going for GC placing, while Rabo still has their stated team leader (who won't be losing 4+ minutes in a TT) in a good spot. 

Anyone else think that Skeletor is the only Rabo guy who thinks Skeletor is going for GC? 

Rabo is in an interesting spot right now, re: defending the jersey.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

justinb said:


> I'm a tad confused by Rasmussen's continual talk of going for GC placing, while Rabo still has their stated team leader (who won't be losing 4+ minutes in a TT) in a good spot.


Could be talk, but could be setting up a good tactical situation. Send Rasumssen up the road, cause other teams to chase, have your guys sit on their wheels. If they catch, launch a counter attack with fresh legs.


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## mrbull (Jun 14, 2005)

*Ras can CLIMB!*

Rasmussen has proven time and again that he can climb like nobody else, and if he has worked on the rest of his game, he may acually be a contender. Did I hear that this is only his fourth tour? If so, then KOM 2 out of the 3 years he's ridden it.

That being said, am I the only one who thought Kloden looked tough today? If he didn't have to go back for Vino....


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## firstrax (Nov 13, 2001)

I dont know about Rasmussen for GC. I'm just happy to have someone to cheer on for the next few days. Viva La Chicken!


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## oarsman (Nov 6, 2005)

*Kloden did look tough*



mrbull said:


> Rasmussen has proven time and again that he can climb like nobody else, and if he has worked on the rest of his game, he may acually be a contender. Did I hear that this is only his fourth tour? If so, then KOM 2 out of the 3 years he's ridden it.
> 
> That being said, am I the only one who thought Kloden looked tough today? If he didn't have to go back for Vino....


Kloden did look pretty sharp, but, given his injuries Vino looked pretty good as well. With the nature of their respective ailments, I wonder if Vino will just get stronger as he heals whereas Kloden's tailbone fracture might keep getting worse with more and more time in the saddle.


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## justinb (Nov 20, 2006)

dr hoo said:


> Could be talk, but could be setting up a good tactical situation. Send Rasumssen up the road, cause other teams to chase, have your guys sit on their wheels. If they catch, launch a counter attack with fresh legs.



Good call. Rabobank looks pretty strong.


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## oarsman (Nov 6, 2005)

*Agree*



dr hoo said:


> Could be talk, but could be setting up a good tactical situation. Send Rasumssen up the road, cause other teams to chase, have your guys sit on their wheels. If they catch, launch a counter attack with fresh legs.


I was thinking the same thing. Have Rasmussen tear apart the legs of Valverde, Vino, etc, who will have to chase to some degree because even though the chicken cannot time trial they can't let him get another 4 or 5 minutes on a mountain stage, then launch Menchov.

Should be fun.


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## MellowDramatic (Jun 8, 2006)

I'm not sure it's a matter of the other contenders "letting" him get away. If his timing is good enough, he could feasibly put 35-40 seconds on the leaders with a good attack closer to the top of the mountain. If he just nickel-and-dimes the other contenders to death, I think he could reasonably get an insurmountable lead going into the time trials. Either way it's going to be a very exciting next 2 weeks.


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## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

Is he still eating a diet of 100% rice cakes?


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Rasmussen might keep the yellow all the way.

- he gained 3 minutes on the contenders today. There's more mountaintop finishes. He will gain more time.

- the next time trial has a lot of climbing. He is a climber so he'll be fine. Besides, his goal is the GC and he has worked on this ITT.

- all the other contenders are not that good ITTers. Kloden is good but he's working for Vino

- he has a good team.

-----------

Disagree? who do you think will wear yellow to Paris??

fc


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## oarsman (Nov 6, 2005)

*Can't see Rasmussen keeping yellow*



francois said:


> Rasmussen might keep the yellow all the way.
> 
> - he gained 3 minutes on the contenders today. There's more mountaintop finishes. He will gain more time.
> 
> ...


Well:

- He might get a few 10s of seconds on the contenders on the steeper bits in the Pyrenees, but that won't be enough

- the next time trial has a gradual climb which does not suit Rasmussen, and the last time trial is nearly flat

- the other contenders might not time trial like Armstrong or Ullrich (or Cancellara for that matter), but they beat Rasmussen by 'round about 40 seconds on a 8 km stage and while Kloden is working for Vino right now, if Vino does not bounce back Astana will be working for Kloden (and if Vino does come back - he is not all that much behind)

- He does have a a good team: which will probably work for Menchov.

So, who will be in yellow in Paris: haven't the slightest idea. Best guess: Evans (or Valverde, or Menchov, or Kloden, or......)

Whatever one can say, this tour is mighty interesting.


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## crumjack (Sep 11, 2005)

Can anyone name another race he's done this year? Talk about your tour only rider. Personally I would like to see someone else win the tour even if that someone is Wheelsucker Evans.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

crumjack said:


> Can anyone name another race he's done this year?


The Giro. I'm pretty sure he did at least one other big stage race. I recall seeing him going on one or two of these long escapades that didn't bear any fruit.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

francois said:


> Rasmussen might keep the yellow all the way.
> 
> - he gained 3 minutes on the contenders today. There's more mountaintop finishes. He will gain more time.
> -----------
> ...


I have to admit I've not really seen much of the last couple of Tours, but can Rasmussen really outclimb the other protoganists mano a mano?

Haven't most of his previous time gains also come off of these long "tactical" escapes?


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## crumjack (Sep 11, 2005)

Dwayne Barry said:


> The Giro. I'm pretty sure he did at least one other big stage race. I recall seeing him going on one or two of these long escapades that didn't bear any fruit.


Thanks, missed that. I never notice him in anything else and Pez made a reference to him as the guy who races one month of the year.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

*I agree completely.....*



oarsman said:


> Well:
> 
> - He might get a few 10s of seconds on the contenders on the steeper bits in the Pyrenees, but that won't be enough
> 
> ...


Just because he did it one day, doesn't mean he can do it or will be allowed to do it every day. 

His TT skills still suck.

The Pyrenees are much harder. 

I think there are more than a few contrenders that intentionally kept their matches unlit today.

Len


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

francois said:


> Rasmussen might keep the yellow all the way.
> 
> - he gained 3 minutes on the contenders today. There's more mountaintop finishes. He will gain more time.
> 
> ...


No way Razzie keeps jersey. Menchov is still a true Rabo leader.
Mayo is not much of a threat either. Valverde, Evans, Menchov, Kacheckin, Moreau, Sastre, Kloden, Leipheimer and Vino - one of those guys will wear yellow.

Today's decision to let chicken go up the road may have been a mistake, still. Kachechkin and Contador may have been sitting because of working for Vino/Kloden and Leipheimer respectively, but Moreau, Evans and Valverde should have worked together to create a larger margin over Vino/Kloden, Leipheimer, Sastre &Co. They all could have gained another minute or so.


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## oarsman (Nov 6, 2005)

*exactly*



55x11 said:


> No way Razzie keeps jersey. Menchov is still a true Rabo leader.
> Mayo is not much of a threat either. Valverde, Evans, Menchov, Kacheckin, Moreau, Sastre, Kloden, Leipheimer and Vino - one of those guys will wear yellow.
> 
> Today's decision to let chicken go up the road may have been a mistake, still. Kachechkin and Contador may have been sitting because of working for Vino/Kloden and Leipheimer respectively, but Moreau, Evans and Valverde should have worked together to create a larger margin over Vino/Kloden, Leipheimer, Sastre &Co. They all could have gained another minute or so.


Why they all played silly bugger for second place in the first Alpine stage is beyond me.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

55x11 said:


> No way Razzie keeps jersey. Menchov is still a true Rabo leader.
> Mayo is not much of a threat either. Valverde, Evans, Menchov, Kacheckin, Moreau, Sastre, Kloden, Leipheimer and Vino - one of those guys will wear yellow.
> 
> Today's decision to let chicken go up the road may have been a mistake, still. Kachechkin and Contador may have been sitting because of working for Vino/Kloden and Leipheimer respectively, but Moreau, Evans and Valverde should have worked together to create a larger margin over Vino/Kloden, Leipheimer, Sastre &Co. They all could have gained another minute or so.


Y'all are making valid points.

I'll still go out on the limb and say it's Rasmussen's race. Out of any guy out there, I favor him to wear yellow to Paris. 

If you can stand firmly behind another guy, how bout a friendly wager? Roadbikereview jersey for your local club jersey? Your guy against the chicken. No you can't take the field.

And the peloton didn't really 'allow' rasmussen to go on the break. They knew he was taking flight. They knew he had GC goals. But they were powerless to stop him.

I like his 'no victory salute' at the finish line btw. It's as if he didn't care about the stage win. The goal is GC. He'd rather have the seconds.


fc


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

The betting lines slightly favor Valverde btw:

http://www.bet365.com/home/default.asp

<table class="fixw" xmlns:fo="http://www.w3.org/1999/XSL/Format" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="b1 rh1"><td><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="b1 rh1"><td class="bn3 ntop">Tour De France 2007</td><td class="brr ntop" nowrap="nowrap">Book Closes Jul 17 10:55</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="blk_r_wh"><td colspan="10">
</td></tr><tr class="h1 rh1"><td class="an3">Each-way 1/5 1-2-3 </td></tr></tbody></table> <table class="fixw" id="tableData_31940557" xmlns:fo="http://www.w3.org/1999/XSL/Format" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="blk_r_wh"><td colspan="10">
</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl ntop" width="465">Alejandro Valverde</td><td class="acn wd_odds ntop">4.50</td><td class="ecn_dt" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=7/2#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=44607606#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Michael Rasmussen</td><td class="acn wd_odds">6.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=5/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=47485716#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Cadel Evans</td><td class="acn wd_odds">8.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=7/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=44607611#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Andreas Kloden</td><td class="acn wd_odds">8.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=7/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=44607608#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Alexandre Vinokourov</td><td class="acn wd_odds">9.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=8/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=44607605#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Alberto Contador</td><td class="acn wd_odds">10.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=9/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=47514574#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Christopher Moreau</td><td class="acn wd_odds">11.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=10/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=48128370#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Iban Mayo</td><td class="acn wd_odds">16.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=15/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=47485717#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Denis Menchov</td><td class="acn wd_odds">20.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=19/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=44607610#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Carlos Sastre</td><td class="acn wd_odds">20.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=19/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=44607609#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Andrey Kashechkin</td><td class="acn wd_odds">20.00</td><td class="ecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=19/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=44607613#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr><tr class="c1 rh1"><td class="an4 w b bl">Frank Schleck</td><td class="acn wd_odds">26.00</td><td class="hecn" onclick="javascript: betN('pendingtype=N#odds=25/1#fixture=31940557#fixturepart=47485714#selectionorder=0#Line=#classificationid=38#');">Bet</td></tr></tbody></table>




----------------
http://www.sportingodds.com/t/event...CMARKET&sportGroupIds=3&sportNo=3&ecNo=168688

<table class="TmplSimple" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl0_rowSel" class="normalRow"><td class="team">Valverde, Alejandro</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel12155331" value="NB^12155331^46404369^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Valverde, Alejandro^7/2^4.50^+350^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">7/2</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl1_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Rasmussen, Michael</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel12155324" value="NB^12155324^46404371^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Rasmussen, Michael^21/5^5.20^+420^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">21/5</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl2_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Evans, Cadel</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel12155312" value="NB^12155312^46402290^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Evans, Cadel^6/1^7.00^+600^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">6/1</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl3_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Vinokourov, Alexandre</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel12155332" value="NB^12155332^46404373^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Vinokourov, Alexandre^13/2^7.50^+650^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">13/2</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl4_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Kloden, Andreas</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel12155318" value="NB^12155318^46402678^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Kloden, Andreas^7/1^8.00^+700^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">7/1</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl5_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Christophe Moreau</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel14504530" value="NB^14504530^46402303^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Christophe Moreau^10/1^11.00^+1000^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">10/1</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl6_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Alberto Contador</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel14556092" value="NB^14556092^46404372^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Alberto Contador^12/1^13.00^+1200^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">12/1</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl7_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Kashechkin, Andrey</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel12155317" value="NB^12155317^46402333^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Kashechkin, Andrey^16/1^17.00^+1600^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">16/1</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl8_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Sastre, Carlos</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel12155326" value="NB^12155326^46402334^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Sastre, Carlos^18/1^19.00^+1800^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">18/1</td> </tr> <tr id="sportAction__ctl4__ctl2__ctl9_rowSel" class="normalRow"> <td class="team">Mayo, Iban</td> <td class="odds"><input id="sel12155321" value="NB^12155321^46402309^1378393^1665264^Tour De France 2007 - Outright Winner<br>Outright Winner^Mayo, Iban^20/1^21.00^+2000^652560^1^1^0^0^0^0^1^1" type="hidden">20/1</td></tr></tbody></table>


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## rufus (Feb 3, 2004)

Len J said:


> Just because he did it one day, doesn't mean he can do it or will be allowed to do it every day.
> 
> 
> Len


I think he can do it every day. But if the peloton doesn't let him, that just plays into Rabobank's, and Menchov's, plans. 

Gonna be a lot of guys killing themselves to go with him when he goes.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

francois said:


> Y'all are making valid points.
> 
> I'll still go out on the limb and say it's Rasmussen's race. Out of any guy out there, I favor him to wear yellow to Paris.
> 
> ...


What happens if neither my guy nor Rasmussen are wearing yellow? Do we call the whole thing off? If so, I will go with Valverde, even though I don't really like the guy.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

I like Moreau or Schleck at 11-1 and 26-1 respectively. Both can do well in the TT, and climb well too.

Agree with DB that I've never seen Rasmussen break away on the final climb. He gets his time in breakaways...which no one will allow him to get in anymore. Good luck going into the next TT with a 3 minute advantage.


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## JohnnyChance (Dec 13, 2006)

SilasCL said:


> I like Moreau or Schleck at 11-1 and 26-1 respectively. Both can do well in the TT, and climb well too.
> 
> Agree with DB that I've never seen Rasmussen break away on the final climb. He gets his time in breakaways...which no one will allow him to get in anymore. Good luck going into the next TT with a 3 minute advantage.



ive seen him jump from his group near the top of a lot of climbs to get KOM points. he usually just breaks away, gets the points, and then drops back, and usually nobody in the group really wants those points either and doesnt chase, but he doesnt seem to have any problem turning it on for a burst of acceleration. i would think if you could ride 100k thru the alp or pyrs solo, you could make that translate into a waiting all day, and going nuts on the last climb to blow everyone else up.


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## oarsman (Nov 6, 2005)

*I'll bite*



francois said:


> Y'all are making valid points.
> 
> I'll still go out on the limb and say it's Rasmussen's race. Out of any guy out there, I favor him to wear yellow to Paris.
> 
> ...


But I don't belong to a cycling club anymore. However, if Rasmussen wins, you get a Vancouver Rowing Club singlet. My guy is Kloden - if he wins, a Roadbikereview jersey comes my way.

Are we on?


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

francois said:


> If you can stand firmly behind another guy, how bout a friendly wager? Roadbikereview jersey for your local club jersey? Your guy against the chicken. No you can't take the field.


Shoot, I'll take that wager. The field! Wow. I'll go on the record as saying I think Menchov will take it -- the chicken's team leader. I'd like to see Moreau win since he's show some panache so far and he did so well at the Dauphine but I don't think he'll keep his form through the Pyrenees.

Valverde is high on my list but I have this sneaking suspicion that he doesn't have the heart to win -- yet. I think he'll finish this year but beating back those demons from the past couple tours will get him in the end.

Team Astana is going to succumb to their aches and pains.

Leipheimer will be close but not close enough.

Evans will play it too safe. Top 6.

I like Menchov because he can turn in a decent TT. He can climb acceptably well. And, like other have said, might well use the chicken as a set up for the decisive attack.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

oarsman said:


> Why they all played silly bugger for second place in the first Alpine stage is beyond me.


Because they feared each other more than they feared Rasmussen.


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## campyhag (Feb 4, 2004)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Because they feared each other more than they feared Rasmussen.


I think you have it right.


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## Lifelover (Jul 8, 2004)

francois said:


> If you can stand firmly behind another guy, how bout a friendly wager? Roadbikereview jersey for your local club jersey? Your guy against the chicken. No you can't take the field.
> 
> 
> fc


I'll take Leipheimer! A local Fat Frogs Jersey (any size) vs a RBR Jersey in XXL.









Let me know


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## serious (May 2, 2006)

I find it a little silly to try to predict a race winner at this point, but I am certainly loving every minute of the Chicken's dominance on Sunday's climbs.

Frankly, I would love to see Rassmussen do well overall and perhaps hit the podium too. But as a minimum, I do hope he gets KOM again. The Pyreneese are generally steeper and shorter, so Ras would have even more of an advantage than on the flatter longer climbs, where working alone is a bit harder.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

serious said:


> I find it a little silly to try to predict a race winner at this point, but I am certainly loving every minute of the Chicken's dominance on Sunday's climbs.
> 
> Frankly, I would love to see Rassmussen do well overall and perhaps hit the podium too. But as a minimum, I do hope he gets KOM again. The Pyreneese are generally steeper and shorter, so Ras would have even more of an advantage than on the flatter longer climbs, where working alone is a bit harder.


Silly??? We're just having a little fun man.

I was actually not interested in the TDF at the start this year. But the racing is good. And the cast of characters is entertaining.

fc


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Lifelover said:


> I'll take Leipheimer! A local Fat Frogs Jersey (any size) vs a RBR Jersey in XXL.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You are on man. That jersey is awesome!!! Although you did not do it justice with that bike.

And since you picked Levi, I'll wager a full rbr kit for a jersey.

fc


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

oarsman said:


> But I don't belong to a cycling club anymore. However, if Rasmussen wins, you get a Vancouver Rowing Club singlet. My guy is Kloden - if he wins, a Roadbikereview jersey comes my way.
> 
> Are we on?


We are on young man. You are Kloden with Vancouver Rowing club. 

regards,
fc


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Gripped said:


> Shoot, I'll take that wager. The field! Wow. I'll go on the record as saying I think Menchov will take it -- the chicken's team leader. I'd like to see Moreau win since he's show some panache so far and he did so well at the Dauphine but I don't think he'll keep his form through the Pyrenees.
> 
> Valverde is high on my list but I have this sneaking suspicion that he doesn't have the heart to win -- yet. I think he'll finish this year but beating back those demons from the past couple tours will get him in the end.
> 
> ...


Very good analysis! The chicken will fly on the uphill finishes for sure. If the contenders chase, Menchov will stalk them for the kill!

The only dilemna is if the yellow is under pressure, will Menchov work for Rasmussen?

fc


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

55x11 said:


> What happens if neither my guy nor Rasmussen are wearing yellow? Do we call the whole thing off? If so, I will go with Valverde, even though I don't really like the guy.


We are on. You are Valverde! If neither of our guys win, we call the whole thing off!

fc


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

SilasCL said:


> Agree with DB that I've never seen Rasmussen break away on the final climb. He gets his time in breakaways...which no one will allow him to get in anymore.


I think this is at the heart of the issue... will he gain time on the the uphill finishes??

I think he will. Who's going to disallow him? Who's going to hang with him?

A lot will depend on nutrition and team tactics to get him to the base of the final climb with minimum effort.

The biggest threat is Kloden. But he's gotta shed his domestique badge.

fc


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

SilasCL said:


> I like Moreau or Schleck at 11-1 and 26-1 respectively. Both can do well in the TT, and climb well too.


I like Schleck but I don't think he's got the total package for a win. He turned in a great ride yesterday but will he be able to keep it up through the Pyrenees? I'm doubtful. Also, the Schleck/Sastre dual leader thing can't be helpful. However, CSC has got to feel pretty good that the field is as wide open as it is since almost anything can happen.

I'd love to see Moreau take it. As I said in another post, I don't think his form will last long enough. He was flying high at Dauphine and he's going 100% now. That's a long time to hold top fitness.


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## JohnnyChance (Dec 13, 2006)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Because they feared each other more than they feared Rasmussen.



its not about fearing rasmussen. its about fearing vino, kloden, levi, menchov, and sastre. you have the opportunity to put big time between yourself and half of the GC contenders. stop playing games, put the hammer down, and if the guys behind you can stay on your wheel, let them suck and then fight for 2nd place in the stage. valverde and moreau should have said, look, were obviously not getting rid of each other, lets do some work together, and bury the rest of the field. then they each have 4 or 5 less guys to worry about for GC. sure, they still have each other to worry about, but they still do now, along with the guys who in the end, only lost 30 or 40 seconds to them.

i believe it was stage 11 last year, levi, menchov and floyd in a break. floyd was more concerned with the overall than the stage, so he did most of the work to the finish. he knew that levi or menchov would be able to outsprint him for the stage win, but it worked out for him because the work he did lead to the yellow jersey, and a bigger lead on the other GC contenders.


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

francois said:


> Very good analysis! The chicken will fly on the uphill finishes for sure. If the contenders chase, Menchov will stalk them for the kill!


One other wildcard I forgot to mention ... don't count out Contador. Remember that stage race he won in the early season? He finished with about the same time as Moreau in the TT. Which means he doesn't suck at the TT. If he finishes okay in the stage 13 TT, he could blow things apart in one of the following three stages.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Gripped said:


> One other wildcard I forgot to mention ... don't count out Contador. Remember that stage race he won in the early season? He finished with about the same time as Moreau in the TT. Which means he doesn't suck at the TT. If he finishes okay in the stage 13 TT, he could blow things apart in one of the following three stages.


Contador is a major player. In a TT earlier this year too, he beat Cadel by a minute. I don't know much about him but he looks like an explosive climber.

Disco is going to back him now I think. Levi has no chance of taking yellow to Paris (ok, tiny). Contador but has a better chance of winning the whole thing. Of course he's so young and has never done anything like this grand tour. But at least he's got Bruyneel.

fc


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## blackhat (Jan 2, 2003)

francois said:


> .... how bout a friendly wager?
> fc



Ill take the mangled vino against your chicken if nobody else has him. the dark arts of the team doc should have him good as new by weeks end. I have no club jersey for you but should the chicken pull off this unlikely feat I've got a box of dozen or so Elite TDF bottles from last year that I never opened with your name on them.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

JohnnyChance said:


> its not about fearing rasmussen. its about fearing vino, kloden, levi, menchov, and sastre. you have the opportunity to put big time between yourself and half of the GC contenders. stop playing games, put the hammer down, and if the guys behind you can stay on your wheel, let them suck and then fight for 2nd place in the stage...


I'm not argueing about what should have been...just stating what I think was the psychology. It is often very hard to get cooperation in that sort of situation because some riders are afraid to help because they might get dropped, some are fine with the situation as is and just content to be there, etc.

And as soon as you get 1 or 2 not contributing, no one else wants to end up the sucker who does all the work only to be dropped near the top.

Yesterday demonstrated the value of having a good mountain domestique who can still be there on the last climb.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Dwayne Barry said:


> I'm not argueing about what should have been...just stating what I think was the psychology. It is often very hard to get cooperation in that sort of situation because some riders are afraid to help because they might get dropped, some are fine with the situation as is and just content to be there, etc.
> 
> And as soon as you get 1 or 2 not contributing, no one else wants to end up the sucker who does all the work only to be dropped near the top.
> 
> Yesterday demonstrated the value of having a good mountain domestique who can still be there on the last climb.


This tour favors the opportunist.

The Peloton is disorganized and fears itself and not one rider.

fc


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

francois said:


> This tour favors the opportunist.
> 
> The Peloton is disorganized and fears itself and not one rider.
> 
> fc



That's what I'm thinking. A Moreau attack over the Galibier would be great.


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## serious (May 2, 2006)

francois: *Silly??? We're just having a little fun man.*

Sorry, I did not mean it in a bad way. I realize we are just having fun.


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## nostromo (Apr 1, 2006)

On versus I saw the chook say 'I think its quite clear I am the leader in the team right now'.


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