# Ronde Picks



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

provisional start list is up at cycling news.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/tour-of-flanders-start-list-1

who yall got? after watching spartacus ride everyone off his wheel with his golden-bearing motor, its tough not to go with him. of course boonen has looked good recently. oh, and garmin has a strong team, but will they be able to deliver thor to the line? will stinjn be aching from his crash? can ballan return to form?

who will rule flanders?


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Fabin will be so heavily marked that he won't be able to get away. At least not before 25k to go.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Flanders*

is really hard to do back to back
I'd be happy for Fabian to do it, but the odds are against him and all eyes are on him


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

I'll go with Fabian Cancellara again, with Phillipe Gilbert my second choice.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

1. Cancellara 
2. Matt Goss 
3. Heinrich Haussler

Underdog: Thomas De Gendt


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## Alaska Mike (Sep 28, 2008)

Unless something really surprising happens, Fabian and Tom. Fabian was marked pretty heavily last year, after announcing ahead of time that the Ronde was his main goal for the season. A week later everyone was watching him and he rode away again. Tom was the only rider anywhere near him, and just got caught out in Paris-Roubaix. Once you're off his wheel, you're pretty much done if you don't have a very dedicated group working together to bring it back together.

An untimely flat or mechanical could change things, though. Rain and mud could also make for an interesting race.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

It's Cancellera's race to lose.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

Gilbert
Boonen takes the bunch sprint for 2nd


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

If the race is marked by what they call negative racing, with everyone keying on Fabian, you'd expect it to be someone more lightly regarded who gets away. I'll take a flyer on van Avermaet.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

Sagan or maybe Flecha, Chavanel if Boonen is a no show


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

I hope to see Thor close to the front... but I agree it's Fabian's race to lose.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

harlond said:


> If the race is marked by what they call negative racing, with everyone keying on Fabian, you'd expect it to be someone more lightly regarded who gets away. I'll take a flyer on van Avermaet.



And BMC also has Ballan who has been showing resurgent form lately, right?


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## Kneedragon (Jul 27, 2010)

Cancellara is my pick.

2nd pick would be Haussler. Garmin needs a victory in the classics.


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## FlandersFields (Jul 16, 2010)

Here in Flanders, tension is rising to unseen heights.

The only rider as strong (or stronger) as Canc. is probably Gilbert, but he's totally focused on Luik. He knows he can win Vlaanderen in the years to come. But Gilbert has a very strong team for the Ronde. 

What's great as well is that there have been warnings towards the Flemish supporters not to kick Pozzato from his bike. I'm sure everybody knows why the public opinion doesn't really like Pozzato.  

De Volder and Leukemans are not in good shape. But De Volder, well, I can't stand him...but never count him out. 

But my one and true guess: a lesser known rider will win Flanders. Why? Everybody is going to look at Cancellara when let's say a guy like Hincapie (American forum ) jumps. 

Oh, what the ****. Cancellara will win...


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## slimjw (Jul 30, 2008)

If Cancellara has the same legs he did last weekend it won't matter if he's heavily marked. He will just put it in gear and it will be buh-bye and catch me if you can, gentlemen.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

I have no pick. My gut is telling me that FC and Gilbert will be heavily marked and Pozato could lose it for them.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

I like Garmin for this race, but can't pick a specific winner. They'll have Tyler and Thor on Spartacus' wheel. Everyolne else will jump on breaks one at a time. If a break sticks, just about any Garmin rider could win it. If it doesn't then either Thor or Tyler could follow Fabian and take it at the line.

Oh, and how about BMC with both Hincapie and Phinney lining up? Hasn't George been a pro since before Tyler was born?!

JSR


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## slimjw (Jul 30, 2008)

Pozzato... That guy needs to get out and do something with his legs instead of just riding on Gilbert's heels every time the guy jumps. If he does win, I hope he does so in a gutsy manner.

That said, I would love to see an upset. Nothing better than some dark horse proving everyone wrong and beating the big dogs. Don't know if Thor is targeting the Ronde as much as Roubaix, but would love to see either him or Heinrich win this one. 

I don't think Farrar has the juice for the climbs at this point in his career. I bet he could contend if he wanted but sprints are his bread and butter and he still wants to beat Cav at the tour (heck, he probably wants to FINISH the tour.) so I bet he's still focusing on that.


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## peter584 (Aug 17, 2008)

JSR said:


> Oh, and how about BMC with both Hincapie and Phinney lining up? Hasn't George been a pro since before Tyler was born?!
> 
> JSR


I think they said phinney broke a nail, so he isn't in shape to be there.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Cancellara, Boonen and Hushovd to podium.

Sparticus for the win!


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

slimjw said:


> I don't think Farrar has the juice for the climbs at this point in his career. I bet he could contend if he wanted but sprints are his bread and butter and he still wants to beat Cav at the tour (heck, he probably wants to FINISH the tour.) so I bet he's still focusing on that.


Well he finished 5th last year so I think he can get over the climbs just fine provided its with a group.


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

with or without motor ?


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

what's the weather forecast?


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Creakyknees said:


> what's the weather forecast?


High 13 deg. C
Wind 8 Km/h NW
Precip. Prob. 60%


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

*Spartacus on a Huffy*



Salsa_Lover said:


> with or without motor ?


With or without ceramic bearings as well! :thumbsup:


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## FlandersFields (Jul 16, 2010)

spade2you said:


> I have no pick. My gut is telling me that FC and Gilbert will be heavily marked and Pozato could lose it for them.


Gilbert and Boonen have some unfinished business with Pozzato. Can't see him win.


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## Fignon's Barber (Mar 2, 2004)

JSR said:


> Oh, and how about BMC with both Hincapie and Phinney lining up? Hasn't George been a pro since before Tyler was born?!
> 
> JSR


OK, you heard it here first: Phinney in top 20 at paris-roubaix next week. if its good weather, top 12.


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## Fignon's Barber (Mar 2, 2004)

the problem with just marking cancellara is you just can't. his team, be it leopard/saxo/csc simply crank the pace for the first 2/3 of the race, thin the peloton down to the contenders, and then cancellara overpowers whoever is left. tough to beat brute force. my pick: fabian


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Fignon's Barber said:


> OK, you heard it here first: Phinney in top 20 at paris-roubaix next week. if its good weather, top 12.


Lol... no way. I'm a Taylor fan, but... no way.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Museew likes Chavanel.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

Looking past Cancellara and Gilbert, Goss is in great form. Chavanel has been in about every key break this season. Maybe a Sky rider like Flecha or Boasson Hagen?


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

Fignon's Barber said:


> the problem with just marking cancellara is you just can't. his team, be it leopard/saxo/csc simply crank the pace for the first 2/3 of the race, thin the peloton down to the contenders, and then cancellara overpowers whoever is left. tough to beat brute force. my pick: fabian


/\this
the only way to beat him right now, as i see it, is if a break gets away and nobody helps chase. like when boonen started struggling a few years back. riders started saying, "why would i work with him to get to the front when i know he will just bury me at the line."

i still like ballan, though. man, i was cheering for him at msr.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Creakyknees said:


> Lol... no way. I'm a Taylor fan, but... no way.


You know he won the u23 Paris-Roubaix the last two years, right? I'd go so far as to suggest top ten.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

FlandersFields said:


> What's great as well is that there have been warnings towards the Flemish supporters not to kick Pozzato from his bike. I'm sure everybody knows why the public opinion doesn't really like Pozzato.



Who doesn't loathe Pozzato by now? Can anyone remember more of a habitual wheel sucker from the last 20 years?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*hmmmm*

5 added climbs
Devolder could be a dark horse as no one is watching him


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

atpjunkie said:


> 5 added climbs
> Devolder could be a dark horse as no one is watching him


he was who i was looking at (besides fabian), but i thought i read he had a pretty bad wreck this week. not that that would stop a gritty rider, but the preliminary report was he got pretty hurt.


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## guyc (Mar 16, 2011)

OnTheRivet said:


> You know he won the u23 Paris-Roubaix the last two years, right? I'd go so far as to suggest top ten.


Aside from the fact that he's out of action with a knee injury....

And as good as he is, an U23 title is a very different thing to Cancellara/Boonen/Hushovd et al at full tilt. 

I'm going for Cancellara again.


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## Fignon's Barber (Mar 2, 2004)

weltyed said:


> he was who i was looking at (besides fabian), but i thought i read he had a pretty bad wreck this week. not that that would stop a gritty rider, but the preliminary report was he got pretty hurt.


hard to discount a 2 time winner, but I've watched him in 5 or 6 races this past month, and he really hasn't been able to go with any significant moves, plus he isn't in a really strong team anymore.


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## mulkdog45 (Apr 5, 2006)

Would like to watch whoever wins it...So does anyone know where one may catch the action on line? THX


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

LostViking said:


> Cancellara, Boonen and Hushovd to podium.
> 
> Sparticus for the win!


I like those choices, Thor has been in good form lately - but he could get dropped on one of the really punchy climbs before the end (as happened to Boonen last year).

But there are plenty of guys that have already been mentioned that could podium. If a miracle happens and Hincapie podiums, I think I'll cry.


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## Fignon's Barber (Mar 2, 2004)

is nothing sacred!

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/flanders-route-changed-after-cobbles-theft


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Not on 4/1.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

OnTheRivet said:


> You know he won the u23 Paris-Roubaix the last two years, right? I'd go so far as to suggest top ten.


But as a new pro he will most likely be working for his leaders so I will go so far to suggest 20mins down.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

atpjunkie said:


> 5 added climbs
> Devolder could be a dark horse as no one is watching him


Ah, I missed this. Looks like the organizers are trying to take some snap out of Cancellara in particular to avoid another 25K ITT win. Hmm....


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## zoikz (Sep 5, 2003)

This may be a year that will propel Fabien to the best classics rider we have ever seen. It boggles the mind on how good he actually is. Total and utter domination. There is nothing you can do against him, no team tactic that can isolate him. Once it comes down to the last 20-30k, he doesn't need anyone. It's not a chess game, it's a shoot out and he's coming with a howitzer.


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## pulser955 (Apr 18, 2009)

Does any one know if I can watch the race online? In english. I only have a PlayStation hooked to the TV and no cable just the net.


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## Red Sox Junkie (Sep 15, 2005)

Has to be Fabian. They can mark him all they want, but I don't think it will matter. He'll use one of the hard climbs as a launching point and it will be pretty thinned out by then. There won't be much of an organized chase as everyone will have been on the rivit for the previous 50 km. If he looks as good as he did in E3 (or Flander/roubaix '10) he'll ride away and they won't be able to keep his wheel.


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## ewarnerusa (Oct 11, 2007)

Chavenal


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

weltyed said:


> /\this
> the only way to beat him right now, as i see it, is if a break gets away and nobody helps chase. like when boonen started struggling a few years back. riders started saying, "why would i work with him to get to the front when i know he will just bury me at the line."
> 
> i still like ballan, though. man, i was cheering for him at msr.


Unless the Flemish gods throw a broken chain into his spokes. Otherwise this is Fabian's race to loose. 
I'm pretty sure Trek will be throwing in a few extra incentives for FC to do the double again this year.


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## nfosterma (Jan 24, 2007)

Agreed


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

pulser955 said:


> Does any one know if I can watch the race online? In english. I only have a PlayStation hooked to the TV and no cable just the net.


I'm afraid if you want live streaming it's not going to be English. Look at it this way, it'll give you a chance to work on you Flemish. Seriously, after 3 years of watching sporza (cyclocross& road) I can sorta grasp what they are saying. 


http://www.procyclinglive.com/livestream/


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Pulling for Thor in PR but he might be able to do it here. Everybody is so focused on FC right now; he will have quite a time getting away.

I think Chavanel might have it in him.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

slimjw said:


> Pozzato....


LOL only if he wheelsucks his way right across the finish line and whoever did all the work gets disqualified.


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## peter584 (Aug 17, 2008)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Not on 4/1.


I read the whole article and it didn't hit me until the very end.


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

Matt Goss surprises everyone and beats them all in a bunch sprint. You heard it here 1st


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## Frith (Oct 3, 2002)

wrong reply button


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Kram said:


> Matt Goss surprises everyone and beats them all in a bunch sprint. You heard it here 1st


With Canca potentially neutralized this is looking more and more probable. Goss is bad ass.


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

FlandersFields said:
 

> Luik


Where? :hand: 

Is it drying up or will the riders be dependant on good Speedplay cleat and carbon sole traction on the Koppenberg, as we prefer to see it?


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Goss got his strategy down pat - just hang onto Fabian's wheel and let him do the work, then beat him at the line. Has what it takes too.


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## captain stubbing (Mar 30, 2011)

moabbiker said:


> Goss got his strategy down pat - just hang onto Fabian's wheel and let him do the work, then beat him at the line. Has what it takes too.


haha.......just like Tom Bonnen did last year!


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

moabbiker said:


> Goss got his strategy down pat - just hang onto Fabian's wheel and let him do the work, then beat him at the line. Has what it takes too.


He's going to need to be in a group in front of Canca over the Muur, no way he'll hold his wheel there, but the Bosberg, he has a better chance.


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## RRRoubaix (Aug 27, 2008)

I'm just bummed Quick-Step lost Terpstra. Things not looking too good for Big Tom tomorrow... (assuming there were in the first place)
Poo!


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## shomyoface (Nov 24, 2007)

It will be interesting if a break gets away early with a rider from Garmin, Leopard or Quick Step.....none of those teams will chase leaving others (Sky etc) to do the chasing. With no radios the hunt could be difficult........especially in the rain and with the bergs coming thick and fast toward the end. 

I believe there will be a break of 6-8 get away and the winner will be....Lars Boom or a rider from Vacansoleil (perhaps Leukemans).


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

shomyoface said:


> or a rider from Vacansoleil (perhaps Leukemans).


Thomas De Gendt


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## mjones68 (Sep 26, 2010)

I think Rollin From FDJ can make a top 10 and even better at Paris-Roubaix


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## shomyoface (Nov 24, 2007)

OnTheRivet said:


> Thomas De Gendt


After his performance at Paris-Nice I figure he's rebuilding for a new peak.............but good choice though, he was awesome in the leaders jersey.


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## RRRoubaix (Aug 27, 2008)

shomyoface said:


> After his performance at Paris-Nice I figure he's rebuilding for a new peak.............but good choice though, he was awesome in the leaders jersey.


Agreed!
LOVE it when riders from a snubbed team, in this case Vacansoleil, kick some ass! (Take that ASO!)


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*when was the last time*



Kram said:


> Matt Goss surprises everyone and beats them all in a bunch sprint. You heard it here 1st


Flanders ended in a bunch sprint?


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

It's easy to forget that FC walked down one of the bergs a couple years ago with a broken chain and that he required a bike change at a critical moment last year (as well as @ E3). Even with his talent, it takes a bit of luck to win a cobbled classic

That said, the guy makes his own luck and it the favorite to win. He can't be marked when he's 100%. You can bet that Boonen won't find himself at the opposite end of the break again.


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## cyclelogic72 (Dec 1, 2006)

Really late to the party on this one...

Barring a Boonen or Hushovd victory (over Cancellara--come on, Hushovd is super-hungry and besides Hausler and Farrar, Cervelo has Klier AND Hammond as super-domestiques. Yikes! Oh, and a guy named Peter van Petegem in the team car. Phew!), I too am going to throw in for Leukemans and the tactics of the strong Vacansoleil team as an outside chance but, of course, only in the event that he manages to go off the front with some elite group leaving the favourites marking each other behind. Anyway, barring mechanicals, I can't see Boonen--or Cancellara, or Hushovd--allowing a break to succeed. My 2 cents. Can't wait to see this.

Someone mentioned Taylor Phinney's chances at a strong Paris-Roubaix showing because of his back to back Under-23 (i.e. 'Espoir') PR victories. At first blush, sure, it seems probable, but I think we need to remind ourselves that the race he won is not nearly as difficult--only 179kms (Junior PR is 123kms) vs the pro race of 260kms--there are just fewer and fewer riders who can be strong at the end of a 260km race over multiple pave sections. Not to knock Phinney, but keep in mind, too, that many of the very top young Euro talents with Classics potential have already turned pro at 20, 21 and so don't even ride the 'Espoir' PR. This may be the main reason that a result in the Under-23 PR shows little evidence of future main event glory. The three most successful future-pros since the inauguration of the Espoir PR in 1967 are Marc Madiot (Winner '79), Stephen Roche (yep) ('80) and, what do you know, Thor Hushovd ('98). Oh, and Popovich won one year, too, but he's a pro of lesser rank. Marc Madiot (PR '85, '91) is the ONLY one of the past 'Espoir' victors to have (so far) gone on to win the main event.


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## Doctor Falsetti (Sep 24, 2010)

I don't see Boonen as a factor. He got lucky last week but I do not think his form is strong enough to make the final selection. 

My hope is that the finale will include 3 Garmins, who tag team Cancellera like Domo did to Hincapie at PR


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## Doctor Falsetti (Sep 24, 2010)

Man, was I wrong. Boonen is looking strong today


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

Doctor Falsetti said:


> Man, was I wrong. Boonen is looking strong today


I was thinking just the opposite but I'm comparing him to the years when he won it. He looked to be working very hard to cover moves & looked like it was so hard when he tried to cover Boom's move he sat down.

The years he won he was practically soft-pedaling to stay at the front.

I also don't know why he was working so much. Cancellera rode perfect, nearly completely hidden until he made his move.

Over now unless he bonks, crashes or mechanical.


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## Doctor Falsetti (Sep 24, 2010)

Dwayne Barry said:


> I was thinking just the opposite but I'm comparing him to the years when he won it. He looked to be working very hard to cover moves & looked like it was so hard when he tried to cover Boom's move he sat down.
> 
> The years he won he was practically soft-pedaling to stay at the front.
> 
> ...


I kinda wonder if Boonen's aggressiveness was a cover. Maybe a way to keep Cancellera from attacking? If so it did not work. 

To be fair in the past it has been common for him push hard on the middle climbs to shed some of the field, which is what he was doing today. When the move came he got stuck in traffic and was not as strong to follow. 

Next week should be very interesting


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

He got stuck but it appeared almost volutnary. I think he was gassed and knew FC was getting away. IF Q/S meant to get FC to attack early then that part worked. I think FC wishes Boonen could have followed. Chavanel was the strongest imo. He was away the longest and repeatedly covered FC when nobody else could. If Q/S wasn't so Belgo-centric they should ride for him a few times, I bet he'd deliver.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I really liked Chavanel for this one. I'm glad to see him on the podium; I still think he could have won. 

I'm also glad to see that George isn't finished yet.


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