# Who will win Tour of California?



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

any predictions? Bradley Wiggins, really? Is it that easy?

What about ten Dam? Acevedo? Dark horses - Craddock? Stetina? Busche?


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Is that race even happening still? i.e. who cares.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

55x11 said:


> any predictions? Bradley Wiggins, really? Is it that easy?
> 
> What about ten Dam? Acevedo? Dark horses - Craddock? Stetina? Busche?


Most or all of those guys should be active and could easily be in the running, but I like Morton from Garmin and Yates from OGE the most (along with Stetina). Tommy D usually brings it in the U.S. races and Craddock and Haga have had success on U.S. soil in the past. Sagan, Cavendish, and Degenkolb should be lighting up the sprints as well.


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

it will depend to what extent the top teams support the event. I haven't heard much form danielson all season, but on paper, he and wiggins come most readily to mind.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

hmm.... You could say that just about every race. 
Giro? who cares... TdF - boring (it really is lately)...

Or you could just enjoy competition in any form it comes, big races, small races, one-week tours, classics, local crits, etc. No need to be a snob about it.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

55x11 said:


> hmm.... You could say that just about every race.
> Giro? who cares... TdF - boring (it really is lately)...
> 
> Or you could just enjoy competition in any form it comes, big races, small races, one-week tours, classics, local crits, etc. No need to be a snob about it.


ToC is on its last legs, no real field, no fans and no interest for me. I'll be watching the Giro.


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## bayAreaDude (Apr 13, 2012)

32and3cross said:


> ToC is on its last legs, no real field, no fans and no interest for me. I'll be watching the Giro.


I go to the stages in my area when I can and there are plenty of fans. Mount Diablo gets crowded. I like seeing how Nate English does against the big guys there. More fun to watch than a flat stage in any of the grand tours for me.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

32and3cross said:


> ToC is on its last legs, no real field, no fans and no interest for me. I'll be watching the Giro.


I've been to at least one stage every year. I've always seen huge crowds at the finish lines and good crowds on the climbs. I've also seen nice little groups at remote crossroads, there just to make a little noise.

It may have lost your interest, but a LOT of people are still into it.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Haa yes, California's Grand Fondo for the pros! 

ATOC is one of those races where the GC seems to take a back seat to stage wins IMO. The real interest here is that Peter Sagan is not alone in it's class this year for stage wins. He will have some competition in the form of Mark cavendish, Tom Boonen (although he's been resting after the classics, he's probably just there to get back to racing and please Specialized), Degenkolb...

I also much prefer the Giro but we can watch both thanks to time zones so, more racing is good!


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## dmaciel (Oct 10, 2012)

I was at the finish line in Santa Rosa last year and the place was packed! I took this pic on one of the three laps.

Don't have a guess who's going to win but disapointed that they are not coming to Santa Rosa this year


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## Rokh On (Oct 30, 2011)

No clue but I'm hoping Ian Boswell does well. Craddock may be a good dark horse. Then there are the usual suspects and anyone of them could have a good showing.


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## BikeLayne (Apr 4, 2014)

32and3cross said:


> Is that race even happening still? i.e. who cares.


I care. I will go to the stage in Monterey on the 17th. I am going with a couple other cyclists and then we will hit up Phils Fish for lunch.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Oh, please, calm down, Debbie Downer - this just shows your ignorance. 

Compare lineups for Tour of California:

World champions: Boonen, Hushovd, Cavendish
Tour de France winners: Wiggins
Top Sprinters: Cavendish, Degenkolb, Sagan (also Boonen, Hushovd - not so fast anymore but former green jersey holders in TdF).
Top Classics Riders of 2014 Season: Degenkolb, Boonen, Sagan, Terpstra, Van
Avermaet, Vandenbergh
US Champions: Freddy Rodriguez (x 4), Matt Busche, Ben King, Tom Zirbel, Taylor Phinney
Other top US riders: Taylor Phinney, Lawson Craddock, Joe Dombrowski, Peter Stetina, Philip Gaimon, Chad Haga, Ian Boswell, Tom Danielson, Ben Jacque-Maynes, Lucas Euser, Alex Candelario, Brad Huff
Other notable riders: Jens Voigt, Lars Boom, Laurens ten Dam, Morton


In comparison to Giro lineup (not a fair comparison, really, 3 week Grant Tour vs. regional one-week race):

World champions: Cadel Evans (ToC had 3)
Tour de France winners: Cadel Evans (1/1)
Top Sprinters: Marcel Kittel (also Pettacchi - semi-retired and not so far anymore, mostly lead-out man now but former green jersey winner at TdF) - ToC had 3/2
Top Classics Riders of 2014 Season: None, really, perhaps add Dan Martin, if you really want to expand/bend the definition of "success", ToC had 6.
US Champions: None (ToC had 5, for 9 championship titles)
Other top US riders: Brent Bookwalter, Tyler Farrar? (these are the ONLY US riders by the way)
Other notable riders: Quintana (cakewalk), Scarponi (over the hill), J-Rod (injured), Rolland (overrated, afraid of descents), Roche (overrated but Giro starts in Ireland), Duran-Duran (dry spell), Cunego (over the hill), Pozzovivo (overrated), Hesjedal (over the hill), Basso (way, way over the hill).


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## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

32and3cross said:


> ToC is on its last legs, no real field, no fans and no interest for me. I'll be watching the Giro.


...can't tell if trolling. It seems to me that the ToC has been growing in popularity over the past couple of years. Last year's parcours was packed with spectators, much more so than any 2HC European race I can think of.

Back to the question at hand. I'm picking Stetina. Mainly because I want to see him ride well and because BMC seems to have sent a fairly strong team.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

Hiro11 said:


> ...can't tell if trolling. It seems to me that the ToC has been growing in popularity over the past couple of years. Last year's parcours was packed with spectators, much more so than any 2HC European race I can think of.


and tv viewers? after all they make up the main share.


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## skitorski (Dec 4, 2012)

32and3cross said:


> ToC is on its last legs, no real field, no fans and no interest for me. I'll be watching the Giro.


To each his own.


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

I'm watching the Giro now and when the ToC starts I'll be watching that too. There's riders to watch at both, and hell there's racing to watch. I don't really care about the riders to be honest, they're just added bonus. I care about the race and the equipment it's being executed on. The humans are just a necessary evil, lol.


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## David Loving (Jun 13, 2008)

I'm in the central time zone - Giro in the morning and TofC in the afternoon. Any race with Jens in it is my first choice.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Peter Sagan will win the Green Jersey again.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Cavendish won stage 1. Sagan finished 4th.


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

Great photo finish. Great day of racing.


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## Sun Rider (Jul 8, 2012)

What's the status of Tejay van Garderen? Don't see him listed with BMC for the ToC or the Giro.


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

Sun Rider said:


> What's the status of Tejay van Garderen? Don't see him listed with BMC for the ToC or the Giro.


I believe BMC is having him lead for the Tour this year.



> Tejay van Garderen announced the end of his spring racing campaign with a simple but sincere tweet that also confirmed he had retired from the Tour de Romandie."It's been a rough spring. Time to hit the reset button," he wrote on his personal Twitter account on Friday afternoon.
> The talented American is expected to now take a break before building up for the Tour de France, where he will the sole leader for BMC.
> Van Garderen has battled through a roller coaster spring campaign. He started the season with an impressive second place at the Tour of Oman behind Chris Froome (Team Sky) but was forced to quit Paris-Nice on stage one due to illness. He bounced back to finish third overall at the Volta a Catalunya and win the decisive mountain stage to Vallter 2000-Setcases. He was sixth overall at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and was targeting success at the Tour de Romandie but crashed hard in the prologue time trial.
> He continued in the race despite racing in pain but opted to retire during Friday's mountain stage to avoid worsening his injuries.
> ...


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## Sun Rider (Jul 8, 2012)

Thanks for the info on Tejay.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

While I too prefer the Giro, you can bet I'm watching the Tour of Cali as well.

My bet - Sagan for the win in Cali.


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## Guod (Jun 9, 2011)

The Giro has been less interesting than the ToC so far. Yesterday's ToC stage was pretty crazy with a few GC guys trying to make something happen in the crosswind. I know the Giro will pick up as soon as some climbs come in, but for now it's been a bit low key (minus the TTT crash). I'm just not a sprint fan, I like attacks and climbs.

I have to disagree with the ToC being a race that's fading in popularity. It's getting coverage on NBC Sports vs putting it on Universal, that's a bigger stage. Last year's was pretty damn good. A lot of drama with the weather and it being Tee Jay's prelude to bigger things (possibly).

I dunno, I can't say the ToC is a crap race. They got a lot of talent again this year and it's a good route. It should be pretty good. At the same time, the lack of a clear dominant GC contender should provide a fun race in the Giro.


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## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

The ITT today ought to be very interesting. I'd like to see Phinney take it, but it's hard to bet against Wiggins. Phinney had a very strong ride yesterday, caught the big split and rode on the front for the rest of the race. Wiggins is obviously very tough this year as well. If Stetina had made the split, I could see the whole race blowing up yesterday. 

Watch out for Tom Zirbel today, he's got a huge engine and has a lot to prove.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Anybody saw the Jamis rider who thought he won the stage but there was still one lap to go. What an idiot. lol


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

Skewer said:


> Anybody saw the Jamis rider who thought he won the stage but there was still one lap to go. What an idiot. lol


He will never live that down.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Sagan, Team Cannondale, great stage 7 victory.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

I felt really bad for him. He made a great move and he was so happy. 

He is not an idiot, this happens - easy to get confused especially when your brain is oxygen deprived and you subconsciously just want the finish line to come quickly. And there is no radios.


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## jeffj (Nov 25, 2004)

What's the saying? 

"Comedy is tragedy that happens to someone else."

The camera just barely caught that "Oh sh!t" moment when he seemed to realize that he shot the wad a lap early. It was unfortunate, but I like that he had the guts to take a shot, and it made a somewhat predictable ending a bit more interesting.


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## chudak (Jul 28, 2012)

I know Wiggo took a nice lead early on but is anyone else sick of the announcers, especially Paul Sherwin, fawning all over him? I know he's a compatriot and all but the boot licking and the "sir" is getting old. 

Could they at least try and be somewhat objective?


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

55x11 said:


> I felt really bad for him. He made a great move and he was so happy.
> 
> He is not an idiot, this happens - easy to get confused especially when your brain is oxygen deprived and you subconsciously just want the finish line to come quickly. And there is no radios.


That was painful to watch. I said, "oh no....he's not. No. OH $^# GO GO GO GO GO"


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

55x11 said:


> I felt really bad for him. He made a great move and he was so happy.
> 
> He is not an idiot, this happens - easy to get confused especially when your brain is oxygen deprived and you subconsciously just want the finish line to come quickly. And there is no radios.


The bell clanging in the background would have been my clue


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## Tig (Feb 9, 2004)

Meet Lawson Craddock, our super US prospect. To see him hold onto third has been a thrill for me. I remember seeing him at state MTB XC races just 9 years ago as he dominated the junior Expert class and later road and track.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Tig said:


> Meet Lawson Craddock, our super US prospect. To see him hold onto third has been a thrill for me. I remember seeing him at state MTB XC races just 9 years ago as he dominated the junior Expert class and later road and track.


He definitely has the potential and the background to get there, but we'll see. I really like him. He seems like a pretty funny guy as well. He's probably the best of the group that is a few years behind Tejay VG, Andrew Talansky, and others. Matthew Busche, Stetina, Ben King, Larry Warbasse, etc. were all highly thought of as juniors and developmental riders, but it seems like they have peaked at the solid, but not great level. Taylor Phinney looks like he may be in the really good, but not great category when it comes to road racing and the almost great category when it comes to TT. Any of them could take the jump to the next level, but none has so far. I am hoping Tejay and Talansky light up the TdF this year and that Craddock is right behind them.


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Here's the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NDYpOJgyZQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

bell was way too late - he was celebrating before the bell. Assuming he could even hear it.

It's a lot easier to watch it after the fact and pass judgement, but I suspect most of us could have easily made similar mistake under the circumstances. And we probably did make a mistake or two like that or much worse, throughout our lives. Only we didn't have it televised to millions of people on their couches just so they could say "what an idiot!".


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## tihsepa (Nov 27, 2008)

Skewer said:


> Anybody saw the Jamis rider who thought he won the stage but there was still one lap to go. What an idiot. lol


Idiot? I bet you couldnt hold that guys wheel in your car. It takes a big man to call people names. A bigger one to get out there and race your ass off. lol


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## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

Tig said:


> Meet Lawson Craddock, our super US prospect. To see him hold onto third has been a thrill for me. I remember seeing him at state MTB XC races just 9 years ago as he dominated the junior Expert class and later road and track.


He did ride well. Overall, a solid week for most of the young Americans. I'd like to see them do a bit better in Europe before I get too excited, though.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Rashadabd said:


> He definitely has the potential and the background to get there, but we'll see. I really like him. He seems like a pretty funny guy as well. He's probably the best of the group that is a few years behind Tejay VG, Andrew Talansky, and others. Matthew Busche, Stetina, Ben King, Larry Warbasse, etc. were all highly though of as juniors and developmental riders, but it seems like they have piqued at the solid, but not great level. Taylore Phinney looks like he may be in the really good, but not great category when it comes to road racing and the almost great category when it comes to TT. Any of them could take the jump to the next level, but none has so far. I am hoping Tejay and Talansky light up the TdF this year and that Craddock is right behind them.


The US certainly doesn't have anyone that looks like he will be dominant. Although with Taylor Phinney, I have hopes for him in TTs and the classics. I expect his career will be in its prime by his mid to late twenties until his early 30s.

Ben King is a domestique, who might do something once in a blue moon from a break. Stetina is a good mountain domestique, but probably will never be a serious GC guy. It seems like Stetina has already been around for a good long while. Tejay is TBD. I think he can be a player in the GTs but never really be considere a favorite. Same goes for Talansky.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

DZfan14 said:


> The US certainly doesn't have anyone that looks like he will be dominant. Although with Taylor Phinney, I have hopes for him in TTs and the classics. I expect his career will be in its prime by his mid to late twenties until his early 30s.
> 
> Ben King is a domestique, who might do something once in a blue moon from a break. Stetina is a good mountain domestique, but probably will never be a serious GC guy. It seems like Stetina has already been around for a good long while. Tejay is TBD. I think he can be a player in the GTs but never really be considere a favorite. Same goes for Talansky.


I agree. I pull for them all and will follow their careers, but if I was asked if I thought any of them are at the same level as the really promising young riders right now like Kwiatkowski, Bouhanni, Majka, Kittel, Sagan, Dennis, Yates, Degenkolb, Swift, Nizzolo, Sep VM, etc., the only one that I could give the nod to is Tejay given his ToC and USPCC victories and his top 5 finish and white jersey in the TdF. Phinney would be the second, but I just feel like he could use a few more victories on his palmares (though he added some meaningful things this year). We keep talking about his potential in the Classics, but he really hasn't shown us much as pro yet in the spring. Talansky is third with a second at both Tour of Romandie and Paris Nice, a victory at Tour de L'Ain and a top 10 at the TdF.


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## Tig (Feb 9, 2004)

Yep, we'll see how he does.
I'd say he has a pretty good start so far:

*2009*
1st Stage 1 (ITT) Edgar Soto Memorial
1st Stage 2b (ITT) Tour du Pays de Vaud
2nd World Junior Time Trial Championships
4th Overall Trofeo Karlsberg

*2010*
1st National Junior Road Race Championships
1st National Junior Time Trial Championships
1st Overall Trofeo Karlsberg

1st Stages 2 & 3 (ITT)

1st Stage 1 Tour de New Braunfels
1st Stage 1 (TTT) Regio Tour
2nd Overall Trophée Centre Morbihan

1st Stage 2 (ITT)

3rd World Junior Time Trial Championships
3rd Overall Tour du Pays de Vaud

1st Prologue & Stage 4 (ITT)

3rd Paris–Roubaix Juniors

*2011*
1st Stage 2 (ITT) Le Triptyque des Monts et Châteaux
1st Stage 10 Tour de la Guadeloupe
1st Stage 2 Hotter'N Hell Hundred
2nd National Under-23 Time Trial Championships
4th Overall Tour de Berlin
4th Overall Tulsa Tough

*2012*
2nd National Under-23 Time Trial Championships
3rd Pan-American Under-23 Time Trial Championships
3rd Overall Cascade Classic
3rd Copperas Cove Classic
5th Overall Tour of the Gila

1st Stage 5

*2013*
2nd Overall Le Triptyque des Monts et Châteaux

1st Stage 2

7th Overall USA Pro Cycling Challenge
8th Overall Tour of California

1st Young rider classification

*2014*
3rd Overall Tour of California

1st Young rider classification


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Tig said:


> Yep, we'll see how he does.
> I'd say he has a pretty good start so far:
> 
> *2009*
> ...


Yep, he has the pedigree, but a lot of that is junior accomplishments and they all have that. We will see if he can keep it up as a pro. I hope he does.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Not in disagreement. But In Phinney's defense, up until this season in the classics, he has pretty much been in a support role. And even this season it seems like GVA has been BMC's guy.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

DZfan14 said:


> Not in disagreement. But In Phinney's defense, up until this season in the classics, he has pretty much been in a support role. And even this season it seems like GVA has been BMC's guy.


It's somewhat true, but he really has been given the opportunity to go for it in the classics the last few years for the most part. He is one of the guys that if he has it in his legs and is in position, he can go (the other two being Hushovd and GVA). That reality is what has allowed to him to finish 7th in MSR before, and 7th in Omloop, and 15th in Paris Roubaix in 2012. He just hasn't been able to put together the race that moves him higher than that. He had a couple of nice moments this year, but it seems to only end up as a break away that gets brought back rather than a move that helps him end up in the final pack. In my opinion, he has all of the physical gifts of someone like Sep VM, but he hasn't been able to pull it all together in the same way for some reason. Hopefully, with more experience and Alan Pieper's help, he gets there.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

I agree. ToC is great at revealing top US talent. I think Craddock was revelation for me from last year's ToC. (sorry I don't follow MTB XC junior races) Dombrowski was top kid revelation the year before. 

Come to think of it, Sagan was sort of "discovered" during ToC back in 2010. Sure, he had some decent results in Paris-Nice a few months before then, but surviving 10K+ ft climb that dropped all but a dozen or so of GC climbers is a unique skill that shows versatility.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Here's Phinney's thoughts:

Phinney, on his classics critics: 'I don’t have anything to be worried about' - VeloNews.com


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## Rokh Hard (Nov 25, 2013)

Wiggo.


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