# Tour Stage 1: 198k



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

WARNING! Each prediction thread contains a short recap of the previous stage. Consider each prediction thread to have spoilers of the day before. If the stage has already started, it may contain spoilers of that stage as well.

Two Time Trial specialists coming back from injury and/or illness. One rider who dominated Tour of California. One defending champion (like there could be more than one) One Englishman who views this trime-trial loaded edition as his best chance of a Tour victory ever. 

Fabulous Five For Fabian! Five Tour prologue victories for Fabian Cancellara, and I think four in a row. I doubted his chances after the collarbone injury. Silly me. He won his first Tour stage/prologue on an almost identical course in 2004. He looked cool as a cucumber in the warm Belgian sun today, almost as if the time off for injury was part of his plan. Seven seconds on a course so short is incredible. The mess that is RadioShack will get at least one yellow jersey out of this tour. I felt this was their best shot at getting gold, and they have it, thanks to Spartacus.

Wiggins had an excellent ride, just edging out Chavanel who held the lead for quite some time. American's were treated to a great ride by White Jersey winner Tejay Van Garderen. Former Giro winner Menchov had a good showing at :06 behind Wiggo, with defending champion Evan another :04 back. 

The two biggest losers today were Levi and Tony Martin. The American finished behind Tony Martin, who lost valuable time due to a puncture. Levi is coming back from a shattered leg, but I thought he would be in the top 25 at least. And Martin? Let's hope the bad luck isn't pinned to him already.

Now, on to Stage 1!
198k of Belgian roads. The profile looks lumpy, and has 4 Cat4 climbs. But these are probably climbs like we see in Illinois. There is a long, slow drag to the "summit" finish, making this look like a classics race. I see Fabian striking out from a handful of kilometers out but getting caught on the climb. Will he hold the golden fleece by the end of the day?

This doesn't suit Cavendish, but is reminiscent of a few stages Sagan was able to steal at this year's Tour of California. Past LBL winners currently in the tour include Iglinsky, Gilbert, Vino, Schleck and Valverde. Gilbert looked good today. Let's pick him.


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

I'm thinking that this is exactly the sort of stage that _this year's _Cav will actually be at the finish for, whereas he wouldn't have been last year. I like Sagan or Gilbert for this as well. It's also a good Vino or Valverde stage, and the uphill finish could be a chance for Evans to get some seconds back on Wiggins. There's really a lot of good choices, but I'll go with Sagan since he's been so ridiculous lately.

Edit to add: I think Gallopin's in the mix as well.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Welty, you do know your write-ups over the years are pure gold, right? RBR is lucky to have you contributing, and dare I say they know it. 

As far as tomorrow's stage I as usual, haven't a clue. I do say Cancellara holds on to yellow. 

I also think this year is going to be entertaining. No whiney ("it's/you're/they're not fair!") Andy. No Brilliant Bastard Bruyneel who's quietly slithered under the rock of shame, and no Whipping Boy Clenbuterol Guy. 

If what Wiggins says is true (focused on honing his climbing abilty) and in light of his today's performance, I say he takes the whole TdF. 

It'll be fun to see how the TJ/Evans thing goes, and how well they work together. Hope TJ can hang in there over the long haul. Both looked good today. There's a couple of Nawth 'merican youngsters that are going to be a hoot to holler for. 

Mostly I'll be rooting for the old dudes though. It does my aging heart and the inevitably shrinking ovaries good, to see 39+ year olds in the TdF.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Welty, you do know your write-ups over the years are pure gold, right? RBR is lucky to have you contributing, and dare I say they know it.
> 
> As far as tomorrow's stage I as usual, haven't a clue. I do say Cancellara holds on to yellow.
> 
> ...



awww, shucks. if you think theyre good, maybe you could ship me that curtlo. i know its steel, so is it fun or fast? i might miss a few stages this year. work is crushing right now

wiggo is super thin. he has the weight-to-climbing ratio down this year. but he needs to make it through the three weeks without getting sick. he is so trim he might risk illness. then again, everyone racing risks illness. strange rooms without ac. or diseased ac. strange hotel rooms. strange kitchens. strange water sources...

tj will be fine with bmc and evans. hincapie will lead that team and keep it together. i would be worried if they were on a drama squad like radioschleck. 17 tours? ouch. if evans wins this would make 10 tours in which george rode for the winner. would be nice to see him take a stage, but he is more about the GC help.

you think your boy tyler will get one this year?


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Chavanel for the stage and yellow tomorrow.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

weltyed said:


> awww, shucks. if you think theyre good, maybe you could ship me that curtlo. i know its steel, so is it fun or fast? i might miss a few stages this year. work is crushing right now
> 
> wiggo is super thin. he has the weight-to-climbing ratio down this year. but he needs to make it through the three weeks without getting sick. he is so trim he might risk illness. then again, everyone racing risks illness. strange rooms without ac. or diseased ac. strange hotel rooms. strange kitchens. strange water sources...
> 
> ...



No one can haz my Curtlo, not even you, and that's saying something seeing as your posts during TdF season are the first thing I roll over and wake up to every morning. 

Sorry about your workload (I know how that goes)... but we here will be happy with whatever crumbs you can throw from the table.

Yes, Wigs is a skeleton, but did you see Frank???  The mama in me wants to ship him a sammich.

Tyler? Who knows? This has been less than a stellar year. Dark horse? Maybe wishful thinking on my part.

Lots of interesting players in this year's Tour. 

Funny how we pick apart these guys...but every one of these grand tour riders are the best of the best; a very select group that the masses can't touch even on their best day and/or pharmaceutical interventions.


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## KenS (Jan 28, 2004)

I am going with Chavanel or Gilbert. Both looked strong on the Prologue. Cancellera may try to keep the yellow jersey as it will be days before the Radio Shack protected-rider mess will need to be cleared up.

My fantasy-ride is that BMC tries to set up Hincapie for the win for a thank-you to his strong service. 

(Extreme fantasy is that Voigt and Hincapie can duke it out for the win. A guy can have his dreams, can't he?)


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## boneman (Nov 26, 2001)

Gilbert, Sagan or Goss for this stage. Can't discount Cav and it really depends if they're all together at the finish which kicks up at the end. I like Goss for these lumpy stages, similar to Freire in that he can handle some climbing and has a fast finish.


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## wtfbbq (Apr 5, 2012)

KenS said:


> I am going with Chavanel or Gilbert. Both looked strong on the Prologue. Cancellera may try to keep the yellow jersey as it will be days before the Radio Shack protected-rider mess will need to be cleared up.


I like Gilbert too. This stage has 8k feet of climbing and a little kicker at the end. Rojas and Sagan maybe. But my pick is Gilbert. Chavanel is a good choice like you said with the prologue. Gilbert wasn't far off either.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

gilbert.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

I've been google-driving the finish hill. It's a beeeeeeyotch. See pics. 

But. It's not an uphill finish, there's roughly a K of flat ground before the finish, at least according to the MapMyRide stage map.

Pic 1: yeah that looks steep and narrow and it goes on for a very long ways.
Pic 2: basically a switchback but then it levels off.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I was thinking that this would be a good finish for Sagan but this is the Tour and he is going to have to contend with a bunch of wily, experienced rolleurs. I don't know if Valverde has the form for this. 
Gilbert seems to be just coming on to his form. I'll bet Cadel makes a run for the win here. 

What the heck, I'll go for Sagan. 

Cancellara will have a hard time hanging on to yellow.


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## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

I think it going to come down to Gilbert, Chavanel and Sagan. There might be a couple of GC riders get caught out and loose some seconds to their rivals as well.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

I think Spartacus will remain in yellow today.... barely, but he'll hang to it one more day.


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## EuroSVT (Sep 15, 2011)

Did I just see all of Team Sky rockin' yellow brain buckets?

* nvm, they just explained why


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## Buzzard (Sep 7, 2004)

Boasson Hagen for the win and the white jersey.


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## shoegazer (Nov 2, 2007)

I'd like Boss Hog for this also but perhaps I'm just a Team Sky fanboy


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

i always forget about the boss. he could be the one today...


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

As mentioned above, it is flat for the last 1km. That being said. Cav. Sagan was very impressive in the early season, but he was impressive in races where he was the best sprinter. Goss, Cav, Reshaw, Griepel, and Pettachi weren't there. He was impressive against Hausler though. Like I said above, someone has to beat Cav, and I don't think it will happen today.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

spookyload said:


> As mentioned above, it is flat for the last 1km. That being said. Cav. Sagan was very impressive in the early season, but he was impressive in races where he was the best sprinter. Goss, Cav, Reshaw, Griepel, and Pettachi weren't there. He was impressive against Hausler though. Like I said above, someone has to beat Cav, and I don't think it will happen today.


You think he can make it over all those hills?

Why is sky wearing yellow helmets? Seems like they might jinx themselves like that.


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## EuroSVT (Sep 15, 2011)

The Team Classification leader has been asked by the Tour to wear yellow helmets


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Crashy crashy....idiot photog.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

lotto drilling it.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Damn that was an ending.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Awesome finish. That kid can read a race.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Sagan's debut win, but good ride by Fabian and EBH.
That finish was a lot harder than expected!


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Sagan aside from being a animal is cagey beyond his years.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

foto said:


> Awesome finish. That kid can read a race.


And outfox the experienced hands.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Marc said:


> Crashy crashy....idiot photog.


He was standing on the wrong side of the barriers where riders wouldn't expect someone to be standing. Idiot and jerk. 

Amazing how many people stand right out in front of the riders as they come flying past! There was a marshal standing in the roadway who almost got run over too.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

spookyload said:


> As mentioned above, it is flat for the last 1km.


Lol at that being flat. The official tour site says it's 5.8% grade for the penultimate km and 2.9% for the last km. Tomorrow has a flat last km and the first test to see just how good Sagan is in pure sprints.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Marc said:


> And outfox the experienced hands.


Well, as soon as he and Cancellara were away together I knew how it would play out. It was kind of classic actually. There was the moment there when Cancellara turned around and looked at Sagan to do some work that showed that he knew what was going to happen and that it was useless to ask somebody else to help him work to the line. Sagan is the worthy winner of the stage and it hurts my ears a bit when I hear Cancellara complain about it but Cancellara's attack was brutal and he did the work that led them to the line.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Marc said:


> Crashy crashy....idiot photog.


I cussed at my screen when I saw that guy. Moron.  :mad2:


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> Well, as soon as he and Cancellara were away together I knew how it would play out. It was kind of classic actually. There was the moment there when Cancellara turned around and looked at Sagan to do some work that showed that he knew what was going to happen and that it was useless to ask somebody else to help him work to the line. Sagan is the worthy winner of the stage and it hurts my ears a bit when I hear Cancellara complain about it but Cancellara's attack was brutal and he did the work that led them to the line.


Cancellara didn't just look at him, before that I think he waved with his hand for Sagan to come up and not just suck his wheel....the look only came after Cancellara realized Sagan was using him as a lead-out.


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## a_avery007 (Jul 1, 2008)

yes another good win, but when is Fabian going to figure out a different strategy?
lets see how this kid does on a flat sprint, slight downhill of slight uphill.
my money will be on Cav.
This kid is having the same kind of year as Gilbert last year, unreal!


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

somebody help me translate this?

"victoire d'un suceur de roue au tour de france"

Google says:
"victory of a nozzle of wheel to the tour de france"

Talking about Sagan... is this an insult?


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> Well, as soon as he and Cancellara were away together I knew how it would play out. It was kind of classic actually. There was the moment there when Cancellara turned around and looked at Sagan to do some work that showed that he knew what was going to happen and that it was useless to ask somebody else to help him work to the line. Sagan is the worthy winner of the stage and it hurts my ears a bit when I hear Cancellara complain about it but Cancellara's attack was brutal and he did the work that led them to the line.


Well, Sagan won the race by going with the winning move, and that is what we saw here. Sagan was chasing after chav, and it looked like he was fading. Turns out he knew that wasn't the winning move, that it was too far out. That takes a lot of talent to be able to make that calculation.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

a_avery007 said:


> yes another good win, but when is Fabian going to figure out a different strategy?
> lets see how this kid does on a flat sprint, slight downhill of slight uphill.
> my money will be on Cav.
> This kid is having the same kind of year as Gilbert last year, unreal!


Hold your horses, I didn't see Sagan win any classics this year.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

Creakyknees said:


> somebody help me translate this?
> 
> "victoire d'un suceur de roue au tour de france"
> 
> ...


suceur - English translation - bab.la French-English dictionary

More like "victory of a wheel sucker at the TdF"


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

foto said:


> Hold your horses, I didn't see Sagan win any classics this year.


I think he meant in the sense of having won a crap load of stage race wins and jersies this year.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

foto said:


> Well, Sagan won the race by going with the winning move, and that is what we saw here. Sagan was chasing after chav, and it looked like he was fading. Turns out he knew that wasn't the winning move, that it was too far out. That takes a lot of talent to be able to make that calculation.


Sagan's win was deserved and I don't discredit that one bit. I actually get irritated when people complain about it when this happens and I hate the term "wheelsucker." Sagan admits that he couldn't work with Cancellara and that he did what he had to do to win. Sagan wins stage 1 of the 2012 Tour de France; Cancellara leads

People want to see panache and displays of brutal strength and get angry at cyclists for more calculated tactical victories. I guess that means that people think that at the line Sagan should have said "Cancellara was the strongest here and the "rules" say that nobody likes a wheelsucker so the respectful thing to do would be to not go around and win the stage right now." That is very silly. People forget from their armchairs and studies of the "rules" that these athletes are employees of their teams and that their job is to win races. Winning races keeps sponsors happy and pays their team. Also, regardless of who was the strongest (and Cancellara was today) people don't always realize that drafting Cancellara to the line isn't like kicking back for a free wagon ride and that winning a big race like a Tour stage (or MSR earlier this year or Flanders last year) is a feat that requires incredible talent and brutal strength however it is accomplished. Sagan's victory was fair and deserved.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> Sagan's win was deserved and I don't discredit that one bit. I actually get irritated when people complain about it when this happens and I hate the term "wheelsucker." Sagan admits that he couldn't work with Cancellara and that he did what he had to do to win. Sagan wins stage 1 of the 2012 Tour de France; Cancellara leads
> 
> People want to see panache and displays of brutal strength and get angry at cyclists for more calculated tactical victories. I guess that means that people think that at the line Sagan should have said "Cancellara was the strongest here and the "rules" say that nobody likes a wheelsucker so the respectful thing to do would be to not go around and win the stage right now." That is very silly. People forget from their armchairs and studies of the "rules" that these athletes are employees of their teams and that their job is to win races. Winning races keeps sponsors happy and pays their team. Also, regardless of who was the strongest (and Cancellara was today) people don't always realize that drafting Cancellara to the line isn't like kicking back for a free wagon ride and that winning a big race like a Tour stage (or MSR earlier this year or Flanders last year) is a feat that requires incredible talent and brutal strength however it is accomplished. Sagan's victory was fair and deserved.


I don't buy it. Sagan could have taken a short pull and still have won, but now everyone and their mothers know that RSNT has no back-up plan for a Cancellara attack.


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

Creakyknees said:


> somebody help me translate this?
> 
> "victoire d'un suceur de roue au tour de france"
> 
> ...



Translation "victory of a wheelsucker at the TDF"

Sagan did it right, Cancellara made the same move, same mistake.

Fabian was demotivated on the post race interview with Jalabert, he told, " I did what I could, the best defense is to attack, but I am not an sprinter and at the end on the last 10 meters they beat me. ( to Jalabert ) please tell me what can I do better ?"

Jalabert just answered, well he ( Sagan ) is very strong but also very smart, that's all. in other words he didn't answered the question ( but did gave him a big hint) to FC, he has to be smarter if he wants to win.

The answer IMHO ( armchair DS ) is that FC has to understand that doesn't work, if he is carrying a sprinter on his wheel he will not win.

He has to slow down and let the guys on his wheel realise that if he doesn't take a pull or go in front they will be caught by the peloton.

So they will be forced to help ( and at the same time spend energy and level things for FC ) otherwise the bunch will caught them. that's all.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Cancellara needs to risk losing in order to win in those situations.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Creakyknees said:


> somebody help me translate this?
> 
> "victoire d'un suceur de roue au tour de france"
> 
> ...


Definitely an insult.

My French isn't outstanding but it essentially means that he won by gripping Cancellara's wheel.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

foto said:


> Cancellara needs to risk losing in order to win in those situations.


This is one of the best racing lessons I ever learned (and still the hardest to execute in practice)


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Salsa_Lover said:


> The answer IMHO ( armchair DS ) is that FC has to understand that doesn't work, if he is carrying a sprinter on his wheel he will not win.
> 
> He has to slow down and let the guys on his wheel realise that if he doesn't take a pull or go in front they will be caught by the peloton.
> 
> So they will be forced to help ( and at the same time spend energy and level things for FC ) otherwise the bunch will caught them. that's all.



I don't think this can work. When the breakaway (Cancellara, EBH, and Sagan) got to the line, the peloton was catching them; they all got the same time. If Cancellara had turned off the gas to get Sagan to work, they would've gotten caught. It is as simple as that. The truth of the matter is that the only way that Cancellara can ensure his victory is to break everyone else off and get to the line by himself. If he gets there with a sprinter, he will probably lose. That said, I think his best tactic is to do what he is doing. He can mostly ensure that they will get to the line before everybody else and he will get a high placing and sometimes his pace is high enough that he ends up riding everybody else away and wins anyway.


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## EuroSVT (Sep 15, 2011)

Sagan has shown several times this year that he isn't a wheelsuck so...
Is it just a few sour-pusses that have that opinion or what? I thought it was 
thrilling & clean. 

But I've seen some Euro's online complaining too. Was just wondering what 
some of you RbR Vets had to say, because for some reason I'm starting to respect your
opinions


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Cancellara is strong but races like a blockhead and Sagan knows this. Winning is not just about who's strongest otherwise they should just compare SRM numbers. At 22 Sagan has more tactical nous than Cancellara at 31. I love watching Cancellara get outfoxed again and again, when will he learn? Sagan and Gerrans just High Fived each other.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Look, there was a real difference between this and MSR. Gerrans actually took 2 turns, they just weren't fast enough. Sagan didn't even make a gesture.

Now, Sagan did _absolutely_ the right thing, since these days FC isn't looking very clever, and he is an easy read. But like Salsa Lover mentioned, there are things FC can try to get people to work a little, he just hasn't tried them...yet.


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## EuroSVT (Sep 15, 2011)

What about Horner? Seemed he was back at the team car quite a bit today, and I believe he said he hurt his knee? I don't know, I didn't care either way if he went to TdF, but I was skeptical. Just seemed strange (to me) that on stage 1 he might already be having issues. Or maybe I read way too far into that?


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## gordy748 (Feb 11, 2007)

I think Sagan's getting a hard time of it. Cancellara's break was clearly the winning move, but so close to the finish should Sagan really feel motivated to try to keep the gap on the peleton or just go for the win?

Racing is all about being smart. I remember a few years ago when my rowing club entered a local cycle race (all fit a decent cyclists); there were about 20 riders from our club there in one team. How could anyone race against that? Well quite easily actually; at the start the rowers all charged ahead racing each other letting everyone else draft behind. In the end not a single person from my club made the top 10.

Sad to say for Fabian but he's a pure time triallist; he only wins when he can TT away from the peleton.


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

OnTheRivet said:


> Cancellara is strong but races like a blockhead and Sagan knows this. Winning is not just about who's strongest otherwise they should just compare SRM numbers. At 22 Sagan has more tactical nous than Cancellara at 31. I love watching Cancellara get outfoxed again and again, when will he learn? Sagan and Gerrans just High Fived each other.


Sagan played it so cool and made Cancellara tow him to the line. He has great instincts it seems.


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## BassNBrew (Aug 4, 2008)

Yeah, Cancellara really stinks. I guess that's why they make him wear the yellow jersey.

Personally I think Sagan's move was lame. After Cancellara did all that work...Sagan could have done a 15-20 sec pull. Sagan got lucky that the yellow jersey sacked up and took it to the field today. Sagan could have easily been in the top 5 overall and had a shot at yellow later in the week if he had chipped in a little bit...and still won today.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

BassNBrew said:


> Yeah, Cancellara really stinks. I guess that's why they make him wear the yellow jersey.
> 
> Personally I think Sagan's move was lame. After Cancellara did all that work...Sagan could have done a 15-20 sec pull. Sagan got lucky that the yellow jersey sacked up and took it to the field today. Sagan could have easily been in the top 5 overall and had a shot at yellow later in the week if he had chipped in a little bit...and still won today.


I still think that they would have gotten caught if Sagan had gone up front to set the pace. I think Sagan agrees with me. Gilbert or Boss-Hog would have won.

Cancellara would have loved to win the stage but his primary objective was to keep the yellow jersey and he did that well.


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## ghost6 (Sep 4, 2009)

BassNBrew said:


> Yeah, Cancellara really stinks. I guess that's why they make him wear the yellow jersey.
> 
> Personally I think Sagan's move was lame. After Cancellara did all that work...Sagan could have done a 15-20 sec pull. Sagan got lucky that the yellow jersey sacked up and took it to the field today. Sagan could have easily been in the top 5 overall and had a shot at yellow later in the week if he had chipped in a little bit...and still won today.


Lame? Sagan's move won him the stage. He didn't force Cancellara to "pull" him. I get a kick out of how so many people minimize wins when their favorite riders lose.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

BassNBrew said:


> Yeah, Cancellara really stinks. I guess that's why they make him wear the yellow jersey.
> 
> Personally I think Sagan's move was lame. After Cancellara did all that work...Sagan could have done a 15-20 sec pull. Sagan got lucky that the yellow jersey sacked up and took it to the field today. Sagan could have easily been in the top 5 overall and had a shot at yellow later in the week if he had chipped in a little bit...and still won today.


This is what racing is about: you do the littlest work possible in order to win the race. It's called tactical racing.

I love Cancellara, but his only tactic is to "TT home and ride people off my wheel" and that doesn't work when you tow a sprinter along with you.


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## adelaarvaren (Oct 30, 2004)

ghost6 said:


> Lame? Sagan's move won him the stage. He didn't force Cancellara to "pull" him. I get a kick out of how so many people minimize wins when their favorite riders lose.


Sagan did win, and he did the tactically correct thing. However, need he look so pleased with himself? He sat on through a flat stage, then barely pipped a Time Trial rider at the finish... It's not like he went from 200M out against Cavendish and won...

That being said, he is a young'un, and it is his first tour stage win, and he is definitely the sprinter to watch this year.


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## EuroSVT (Sep 15, 2011)

Pete will have a new rig tomorrow :thumbsup:
It's called "Tourminator" ha-ha!


* And agreed, he could, and I'm sure will, tone it down. Kid is 22, stage 1 of his 1st TdF...I'd be a little excited too. We all did things at that age we look back and say "I wish I would have handled that better".


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## wtfbbq (Apr 5, 2012)

robdamanii said:


> This is what racing is about: you do the littlest work possible in order to win the race. It's called tactical racing.
> 
> I love Cancellara, but his only tactic is to "TT home and ride people off my wheel" and that doesn't work when you tow a sprinter along with you.


I see this differently. Cancellara's move was his surge on the last of the steeps. If no one gets his wheel, game over. Sagan gets his wheel because Sagan was reading the ending perfectly. Sagan latching the wheel was the winning move (obvious in retrospect). When Sagan gets on, there is no way in he'll he pulls. Even if they are overtaken, he still has a good chance at the win. Not so with Cancellara.

So Cancellara has a choice at this point, sit up and have no chance at the stage win, or keep going. Bossen-Hagen was coming up as well. Given that mix the finish, while predictable, wasn't certain. Cancellara was smart to forge on and hope for an opportunity. He didn't do anything wrong and pursued the best shot at a win. If Sagan doesn't react perfectly or uses too much energy catching, then things look a lot better for Cancellara.

All three, Sagan, Cancellara, and Bossen-Hagen made their opportunities. In such situations, at most one will work out.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

wow. this post-race talk is retty fun. my .02, not that it means anything...

cancellara has one basic way to race: alone. in my memory, his race/stage winning moves come from striking out by himself. it is an attack of pure power. but diesel power. this can win in individual events, like a time trial. it can also win if executed at the right moment and location. 

sagan, and pretty much everyone else in pro cycling, know this. even cancellara knows this. thats why he does it. the problem is because people know this, they also know to keep an eye on fabian. sagan, or the one talking in his ear, was SMART to stay near the front and keep an eye on cancellara. not only is his MO to ride people off his wheel, he was in yellow. cancellara made the same move last year. heck, he did it earlier this year. double heck, he has been winning tour stages and classics with the same move.

as far as him being willing to lose in order to win, i think he is doing that. the only problem is he is not deciding that earlier enough after the attack. and he has smart sprinters following him. the second he saw Boss bridging, he should have soft pedaled. but this is counter-intuitive. 

what we have is a powerful rider with one trick. and everyone knows it. sagan, and boss, were smart enough to watch and strong enough to put in the power when needed. 

i only see two other ways cancellara can win. one is to get in an early break that succeeds, then with 25k left drill it to the line. he has done this before. but because he has done this, they will never let that break succeed.
the other way is to have his team block. that takes considerable planning, communication and execution. it could have hapened today. there was a bend before that last pitch. cancellara has left boonen in the dust in a similar spot. 

and sagan being a wheel sucker? 
part.
of.
racing.
at least he can finish, which more than i can say for other wheel suckers.
and i dont really consider what he did today wheel sucking. he followed THE attack that would win the stage. if he hadnt gone, cancellara would win. once cancellara saw him and asked him to work? at that moment fabian tipped his hand. i am no mind reader, nor great race tactician, but if i were sagan and i saw cancellara do that? game over, man. game over. it was cancellara saying, "i know you can beat me in a sprint. help me pull away and lets make this sporting. let me catch my breath and we can decide it together." true scorpion on the frogs back. sagan knew this. he also knew what fabian feared: losing. if caught, cancellara would stand no chance at winning the stage. sagan? he could beat most of the guys in that group a few meters back. 

the race was all but over the meter sagan got on the radioshack riders wheel.

and that is racing. knowing the course. knowing your competition. knowing the odds.


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

Salsa_Lover said:


> Translation "victory of a wheelsucker at the TDF"
> 
> Sagan did it right, Cancellara made the same move, same mistake.
> 
> ...



Wow; Same old story, same old song and dance?!


FC has to figure out how to not attract sprinters in a break  !


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

I see it like wtfbbq... for Cancellara it was fighting for a win, or just sit up and automatically give it away.

Sagan knew it, and made the right choice. At the very least Spartacus tried.

Good racing there from both.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

wtfbbq said:


> I see this differently. Cancellara's move was his surge on the last of the steeps. If no one gets his wheel, game over. Sagan gets his wheel because Sagan was reading the ending perfectly. Sagan latching the wheel was the winning move (obvious in retrospect). When Sagan gets on, there is no way in he'll he pulls. Even if they are overtaken, he still has a good chance at the win. Not so with Cancellara.
> 
> So Cancellara has a choice at this point, sit up and have no chance at the stage win, or keep going. Bossen-Hagen was coming up as well. Given that mix the finish, while predictable, wasn't certain. Cancellara was smart to forge on and hope for an opportunity. He didn't do anything wrong and pursued the best shot at a win. If Sagan doesn't react perfectly or uses too much energy catching, then things look a lot better for Cancellara.
> 
> All three, Sagan, Cancellara, and Bossen-Hagen made their opportunities. In such situations, at most one will work out.


See, there's the problem. With Boss and Sagan on his wheel, he has no chance at the win anyway. 

As I said, his only hope is to ride everyone off his wheel. Everyone's wise to that now and watching him like a hawk. He needs some new schtick.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

erj549 said:


> Sagan played it so cool and made Cancellara tow him to the line. He has great instincts it seems.


Sagan played it cool? He sat in and let Cancellara pull him to the line. When you see Spartacus go that close to the end and know he did the same thing last year in three, it doesn't take great instincts to know you are about to get the best lead out of your life.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Cancellara's only other choice was to sit up at 500m and let Gilbert or whoever in the field overtake them. That would have looked a lot worse. Sour apples kind of stuff.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

spookyload said:


> Cancellara's only other choice was to sit up at 500m and let Gilbert or whoever in the field overtake them.


And Sagan would probably still have won.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

spookyload said:


> Sagan played it cool? He sat in and let Cancellara pull him to the line. When you see Spartacus go that close to the end and know he did the same thing last year in three, it doesn't take great instincts to know you are about to get the best lead out of your life.


But why does that make Sagan the devil for taking that perfect leadout?


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

OnTheRivet said:


> And Sagan would probably still have won.


Mabye, but they did finish at the same time as the group. Cancellara backs off ealier and Sagan has a long way to go by himself.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

robdamanii said:


> But why does that make Sagan the devil for taking that perfect leadout?


LOL. He isn't the devil. Everyeone used to say Cav had the best leadout man with Renshaw. I think Sagan just one upped that.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

spookyload said:


> LOL. He isn't the devil. Everyeone used to say Cav had the best leadout man with Renshaw. I think Sagan just one upped that.


That is a pretty damn good point.

Imagine Bennati with Cancellara leading him out....


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

Salsa_Lover said:


> He has to slow down and let the guys on his wheel realise that if he doesn't take a pull or go in front they will be caught by the peloton.


This is the right read IMO. Sagan had a lot more to lose in that situation than Cancellara. At that point Cancellara is going to keep the yellow jersey whatever happens. The only goal for Sagan and Boasen Hagen is to win the stage, and if the peloton catches them that task becomes much harder. If Spartacus takes his foot off the gas just a moment longer, one of those guys has to attack and then he has a fighting chance.

Carping about the outcome is pointless, though. The objective is to get to the line first. Cancellara was ideally positioned for one of his patented breaks, and Sagan was in the right place to capitalize. Sagan rode a smart, clean race and used the tools at his disposal to win the stage, and nobody else did.

On another note, I don't remember seeing the major GC contenders scrambling at the finish of Stage 1 in quite some time.


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## Sumguy1 (Apr 5, 2008)

What's the story on Sagan's chicken dance?


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## the mayor (Jul 8, 2004)

EuroSVT said:


> What about Horner? Seemed he was back at the team car quite a bit today, and I believe he said he hurt his knee? I don't know, I didn't care either way if he went to TdF, but I was skeptical. Just seemed strange (to me) that on stage 1 he might already be having issues. Or maybe I read way too far into that?


He had to drop back and pull Schleck back up,,,,,how Schleck got behind with an uphill finish coming up is anyone's guess. Horner finished 55 seconds down.
And you have to love Belgian love:
Horner: I hurt my knee
Belgian: Get back in the race and stop thinking about it....
Tough love...without the love.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

Sumguy1 said:


> What's the story on Sagan's chicken dance?


I took it to represent wings. And to be pretty cool if so.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Fireform said:


> I took it to represent wings. And to be pretty cool if so.


According to an article, it was supposed to be a body building pose. I think that was a fail if that was the goal.


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

Definitely a fail in that case, lol. 

He certainly proved his doubters wrong though. Cav may have a big problem on his hands.


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## frankdatank1337 (Jul 25, 2010)

adelaarvaren said:


> Sagan did win, and he did the tactically correct thing. However, need he look so pleased with himself? He sat on through a flat stage, then barely pipped a Time Trial rider at the finish... It's not like he went from 200M out against Cavendish and won.


+1
My exact feelings. 
Sagan did a great job and won the race fairly. The only problem I had was with his demeanor after the win.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Sagan is a beast. He will be the Michael Jordan of cycling.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

Ridin'Sorra said:


> I see it like wtfbbq... for Cancellara it was fighting for a win, or just sit up and automatically give it away.
> 
> Sagan knew it, and made the right choice. At the very least Spartacus tried.
> 
> Good racing there from both.


+1!

I love watching both of these guys. Cancellara is arguably the strongest rider out there and he plays to that. Sagan, at 22, shows cagy instincts and can finish strong. He reminds of Bettini. Fabian just had the wrong guy grab his wheel, that's all.


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## peter584 (Aug 17, 2008)

That's poor sportsmanship/integrity. He could have made the gesture of taking at least one pull. Sagan was saying something eerily similar about one of the spring classics. I thought he was more of a warrior.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

peter584 said:


> That's poor sportsmanship/integrity. He could have made the gesture of taking at least one pull. Sagan was saying something eerily similar about one of the spring classics. I thought he was more of a warrior.


It's more like knowing your opponent. Sagan knows that Fabian will not soft pedal back to the chase, he also knows that his best chance is to ride Fabian's wheel. He could have put in a token pull, but Fabian is in yellow. and he made the move. You sleep in the bed you made!


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

peter584 said:


> That's poor sportsmanship/integrity. He could have made the gesture of taking at least one pull. Sagan was saying something eerily similar about one of the spring classics. I thought he was more of a warrior.


You've obviously never raced, have you...


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## ghost6 (Sep 4, 2009)

robdamanii said:


> You've obviously never raced, have you...


I agree. It's mind boggling that some believe that Sagan was supposed to help Cancellara that close to the finish line during an attack initiated by Cancellara.


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

For some reason/s, Spartacus haven't learned his lessons on people sucking behind his wheels. 

Well, that's cycling you'll never know what's coming.


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## captain stubbing (Mar 30, 2011)

vismitananda said:


> For some reason/s, Spartacus haven't learned his lessons on people sucking behind his wheels.
> 
> Well, that's cycling you'll never know what's coming.


many suggestions that FC needs to change his tactics yet no one has offerred any idea how??

for a time trialler he is a damn awseome road racer......i don't see the other TTers doing this sort of stuff, and he has won a heap of titles doing what he does best.

coming 2nd racing the way he does is much better than finishing 10th in a bunch sprint! what other non-sprinter gets on the podium as much as he does.

btw, i don't have a problem with the way sagan rode, both achieved their goal of retaining the yellow and winning the stage respectively. well done to both!


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## foofighter (Dec 19, 2008)

Sagan is proving to be strong, smart, and a great bike handler. He knows who he's working against and is smart enough to do what it takes. It's exciting to watch him...especially today when he was doing the semi Cpt Morgan salute


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

captain stubbing said:


> many suggestions that FC needs to change his tactics yet no one has offerred any idea how??
> 
> for a time trialler he is a damn awseome road racer......i don't see the other TTers doing this sort of stuff, and he has won a heap of titles doing what he does best.
> 
> ...


Cancellara needs to be on a team with a strong sprinter as a back-up. then he could soft pedal and people like sagan would have to really consider whether to go back to the group or take a turn at the front.

I don't think there is any way to know if Sagan could have taken it grouppo compacto after burning matches to jump on Cancellara's wheel.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Cav used to get all this critical carping when he started beating up on the Oldies. Now it is Sagan's turn to get comments from the Peanut Gallery.
Accept it folks: Sagan is the New Kid on the Block and he'ssimply brilliant.


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## superjesus (Jul 26, 2010)

vismitananda said:


> For some reason/s, Spartacus haven't learned his lessons on people sucking behind his wheels.
> 
> Well, that's cycling you'll never know what's coming.


Unless we're talking about Cancellara's racing tactics (which we are). Then we know _exactly_ what's going to happen.


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## JackDaniels (Oct 4, 2011)

Professional bike racers get paid to win races. Sagan's win was tactical and smart.

It was simply devoid of any style.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

Sagan will probably have a tougher time getting in a position like that again unless he has his own blockers.
Some teams may block him once just to make him show some respect for the Yellow. 
More teams may block him to keep him from doing that to their guys. 

Who knows what these pro racers think. I am sure there was some interesting discussions about that finish on the team bus's or at the team meals.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*people let's note*

Boss Hog didn't have the legs to come around Fabian as he spent them chasing. Sagan was at the right place at the right time and had the legs to jump on the winning move
I thought he played it well, but after playing it as such I thought his salute was less than classy


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