# TdF '13 Stage 13 Jul 12 Predict/Discuss *spoilers*- Final Sprinter's-Request



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

TdF '13 Stage 13 Jul 12 Predict/Discuss *spoilers* 

Past the half-way mark! It is all down-hill from here to Paris! Except for Mont Ventoux on Sunday and a couple more bumps, or "alps" as the French call them, along the way.

Stage 13 is about a hundred miles, and is a sprinter's stage, largely flat. This is the penultimate flat stage, with the final flat stage ending in Paris likely being a Cavendish showcase, so sprinter points will largely be locked in after this stage.

With the entire lot of TdF sprinter points from stages largely being doled out by the end of this stage, there could be some fireworks, and the overall avg speed could get high. A breakaway is unlikely to survive even to the mid-way intermediate sprint at the 65 mile mark.

The next stage, Stage 14, has sprinter points, but due to hills favors a breakaway much more than a sprinter's argy bargy likely to be seen on this stage.

Once Stage 13 is over, we get down to the real RBR armchair-pro discussion of scenarios for unseating Froome, who will crack on what mountain, and, of course, some expert-quality doping speculation.

If you do not already do this as a habit, make sure to look at each day's stage "profile," easy to find at the TdF website, to see what the riders are facing, and keep an eye on the "overall" standings also easily located at the TdF website. Good (and lousy) commentaries are all over the place, including sites such as velonews.

Here, and other places, you can increasingly figure out the details of this challenge - teamwork, drafting, breakaways, short-term alliances, wheel-sucking, cracking, dealing with the wind, why guys are stuffing newspaper in their jerseys, when you can and cannot draft behind or hold on to the team car, downhill skills, etc.

If following the tour is new to you, keep in mind that the stage "profile" cartoons shown at the TdF website are not "to scale;" the climbs are not at 80 degrees straight up into the ether. More like 4% to 8% grades, with short stretches approaching 12% here and there. To me, on the gulf coast, a 4% grade does feel like an 80% grade, but I am not a pro cyclist secretly riding the volcanos of the Canary Islands in the off-season. [Instead, picture a dad pulling a pre-schooler in a kid trailer behind an old mountain bike up the brief 3% grade of a suburban driveway.]


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Damn that was a close result. All of Lotto's boys looked like they hit the deck.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

I thought we were going to see Froome win the bunch sprint today. He was right up front with the sprinters at the finish. He got damn lucky as the crash happened just behind him.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

IMHO - Peter Sagan takes Friday's stage.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

overall, greipel is third in sprinter points, 16 points behind cavendish. generally, he could realistically hope to bridge that in stage 13, but the crash may make that a far reach.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

LostViking said:


> IMHO - Peter Sagan takes Friday's stage.


^ that


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Schleck continues to hover at 8 and a half minutes down, in 17th place.
I think the podium overall will come from this set from 17 on up.

Clear out the guys who are sprinters and breakaway winners who were allowed to break away, and domestiques with their one bright shining moment, and you have just a handful, maybe 8, GC contenders.

any speculation on dark horses from below 17th place for the podium? froome podiumed last year largely by being wiggins' wing-man.

contador has two teammates within the top 17 who might be brought up to the podium in the role as domestique for contador - rogers and kreuziger - both are the kind of riders who might have this happen. if contador makes a big gain on the field, with one of these guys taking him up ventoux or huez, then finishing a few minutes behind him, it could happen.

contador doesn't quite look the same as recent years, but then again he may just be reaching his peak.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

PJay said:


> Schleck continues to hover at 8 and a half minutes down, in 17th place.
> I think the podium overall will come from this set from 17 on up.
> 
> Clear out the guys who are sprinters and breakaway winners who were allowed to break away, and domestiques with their one bright shining moment, and you have just a handful, maybe 8, GC contenders.
> ...


I think podium (aside from Froome) will be from Valverde, Mollema, Contador. 

Perhaps the only other person that has an outside shot is Quintana.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Mollema and Quintana still have another ITT to get through. Quintana lost a boat load of time yesterday, it will happen again. On top of that, Quintana is there to work for Valverde. I see Contador, Froome, and Valverde on the podium.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Oops! Posted in the wrong stage.


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## SFTifoso (Aug 17, 2011)

Cannondale will sit back for the entire race, until they get to the little bump at the end and then they will turn up the wick and try to drop the other sprinters.

Sagan wins.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Well, that stunt worked to drop the Yellow.


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## bballr4567 (Jul 17, 2012)

Brutal wind today.


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Valverde flatted at the wrong time. He's going to have to bust his butt to get across the gap. So much for an easy day for him! He could lose serious time today. This is why the Tour is never over until you get to Paris!


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Froome shoulda known better than not to expect that after today's stage thus far....To quote Rick Perry: "Uhhh...Oooops".


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

This is turning into a great stage! The front group has Contador, Cav, Sagan, lots of Saxo....and Froome is gapped. Valverde is completely done. This is fun!


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Poor Ryder. . I hope he will be able to keep going to finish the Tour.


You were right, LostViking. It is very disheartening to watch him slip down.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

burgrat said:


> This is turning into a great stage! The front group has Contador, Cav, Sagan, lots of Saxo....and Froome is gapped. Valverde is completely done. This is fun!


It is fun seeing actual racing on a flat day, for once.


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## roddjbrown (Jan 19, 2012)

Most interesting Tour flat stage I've seen in a couple of years!


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## grandprix (Jul 8, 2012)

I'm unfortunately stuck in an airport today...but the twitter feed is even interesting. 

What caused the split(s)?


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

grandprix said:


> I'm unfortunately stuck in an airport today...but the twitter feed is even interesting.
> 
> What caused the split(s)?


Crosswind, effort, mechanical, and/or inattentiveness, depending which gaps you're talking about.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

With 10km to go, Sagan, I called it. It is his time to shine.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

burgrat said:


> This is turning into a great stage! The front group has Contador, Cav, Sagan, lots of Saxo....and Froome is gapped. Valverde is completely done. This is fun!


Suddenly we have a race again, at least for Contador and Froome. Valverde is done.


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## grandprix (Jul 8, 2012)

Thanks. I was hoping for wind for most of them, though I saw Valverde punctured. 

This will be a great finish if the group holds together. Cav and Sagan, but Cav has teammates.


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## usernametaken (Jul 26, 2010)

GOGOGOGO Saxo!!!


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## roddjbrown (Jan 19, 2012)

Cavendish has Terpstra and Chava, not Steegmans. Sagan has Bodnar. I'm calling Cav on this one


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

And the time gaps are only getting bigger....


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

Froome and Sky are really suffering from the loss of Kiryienka and Boasson Hagen on a stage like today.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Sagan, give Cav an elbow rub.


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## grandprix (Jul 8, 2012)

Too late.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Boooooo, Cavendish won. Sagan needs some of that German juice.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

And the clock continues to role for V.



Skewer said:


> Boooooo, Cavendish won. Sagan needs some of that German juice.


Meh...between the two BigHeads...I'd rather not have to watch Sagan's finish line victory antics.


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

What a great stage. What seemed to be a typical, somewhat boring flat stage was just the opposite. It certainly makes the coming days much more exciting!


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

OPQS won most combative as a team in addition to getting the win!

Rogers said in his interview that they saw everyone was tired and Saxo as a team decided let's go now, we have nothing to lose.


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## r1lee (Jul 22, 2012)

yes, talk about expecting a flat normal bunch sprint. Damn, that was exciting and crazy!

let me guess, who's going to start it? was SKY letting it go so that no more doping questions come up?


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

MoviStar has already said in an interview that they're now riding for Quintana.


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## grandprix (Jul 8, 2012)

nate said:


> Rogers said in his interview that they saw everyone was tired and Saxo as a team decided let's go now, we have nothing to lose.


That is a nice change from the usual conservative tactics, I'm just amazed they pulled it off.


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## Local Hero (Jul 8, 2010)

That was far and away the most exciting and dynamic stage so far.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

nate said:


> MoviStar has already said in an interview that they're now riding for Quintana.


They will hope to atleast get the White Jersey and hope they propell him into a podium position - barring that, perhaps they will help another Spaniard take the yellow jersey?


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Local Hero said:


> That was far and away the most exciting and dynamic stage so far.


Cav and Conti are good at delivering the drama. :thumbsup:


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## r1lee (Jul 22, 2012)

LostViking said:


> They will hope to atleast get the White Jersey and hope they propell him into a podium position - barring that, perhaps they will help another Spaniard take the yellow jersey?


the other spaniard that put them down on time?


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Brilliant stage:
Contador is a great competitor - the race for Yellow in Paris is on.
Cav, after being beaten fair and square yesterday, came back like the true champion he is. No Kittel, No Gorilla, but Sagan dismissed with ease.
Will Froome collapse?
Will Cav get Kittel the next time they go head to head?
This turning into the best TdF in years


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

r1lee said:


> the other spaniard that put them down on time?


Yes, both Movistar and Saxo have an interest in putting time into thier rivals tomorrow - much more effective if they work together - this is btw not unheard of.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

love4himies said:


> Poor Ryder. . I hope he will be able to keep going to finish the Tour.
> 
> 
> You were right, LostViking. It is very disheartening to watch him slip down.


Sorry about that. 
Consolation Prize: Dan Martin in Top-ten on GC today!


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## bballr4567 (Jul 17, 2012)

Freaking amazing stage today. The wind was brutal and the amount of tactics was outrageous. Just a fun stage aside from Cav winning but we knew it was coming. Cannondale has to bring a better team next year or Sagan is just going to collect points and not win.


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

I think they are just estimating the power numbers. And I think they are estimating kind of high. E.g., one update I saw said a random hour in the middle of a flat stage was at like 320 watts. 

But if you look at the SRM site (e.g., Le Tour de France Stage 12), where they post actual power meter data, the riders will average about 250 watts for an hour.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Edvald was a horrific loss for Sky.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

LostViking said:


> Sorry about that.
> Consolation Prize: Dan Martin in Top-ten on GC today!


Thanks.

The mother in me just wants to give him a big hug and say "It's OK, Canada will still love you, regardless" 

The competitor in me wants to say "Harden the F. up ignore the pain in your ribs and pedal them legs" Ok, not really, I truly just want to give him a hug.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Now that's what I call a bike race.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

ukbloke said:


> Now that's what I call a bike race.


I've only seen the begining of the stage - when the first echelons formed - can't wait to get home and watch all of it (perhaps a couple of times!) on my DVR.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

LostViking said:


> I've only seen the begining of the stage - when the first echelons formed - can't wait to get home and watch all of it (perhaps a couple of times!) on my DVR.


It is not often that you get a "one day classic" embedded inside a Grand Tour stage ... and with impact on the GC. I might watch it again too.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Normally I watch sprint stages on triple-fast-forward until the final 10km. Today I spotted OPQS all at the front, and thought to myself that's a little odd, rewound a bit, and watched the whole thing unfold. It seemed that the critical moments were during the ad break, maybe I'll have to wait for a Eurosport feed to see that. Same thing happened for the Saxo Bank move - I'd like to see the critical 5 seconds that Cav described where he sprinted to catch the tail of the newly formed echelon.


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## r1lee (Jul 22, 2012)

ukbloke said:


> Normally I watch sprint stages on triple-fast-forward until the final 10km. Today I spotted OPQS all at the front, and thought to myself that's a little odd, rewound a bit, and watched the whole thing unfold. It seemed that the critical moments were during the ad break, maybe I'll have to wait for a Eurosport feed to see that. Same thing happened for the Saxo Bank move - I'd like to see the critical 5 seconds that Cav described where he sprinted to catch the tail of the newly formed echelon.


I think Saxo's lucky that Cav was able to sprint that quick gap. I think if he was left behind, there was no way that Saxo's would be able to pull the rest of the way to the finish without OPQS.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Note that 3 teams did the work on the day. Nice to see them destroying the team of the guy with the lead that way.

Now, when Saxo went to the gutter and put the hammer down, they did a great job. You can see them create the break QUICKLY, see it worked, and then commit. But I am very impressed WHEN they did it. Because when involves where. They were staying back and conserving, then came to the front. Snapped it off, got up a few seconds. (btw, check out Cav and Chavanel congratulating each other at the back after making the split... they knew what a good move it was and were thrilled to have caught it.)

That happened on a long straight, of course.

But if you look at the road as the time gap goes from 11 seconds ahead to 22 seconds ahead, you will see the slight snaking of the road. Get out of sight, it helps on a break. This is known.

So, well done Saxo. VERY well planned, very well executed. :thumbsup:


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## bballr4567 (Jul 17, 2012)

I did see where Cav and Chav were literally high fiving themselves. I laughed pretty good and I knew that Cav would likely win. Had he waited two more seconds it would of been almost impossible to catch.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Now, when Saxo went to the gutter and put the hammer down, they did a great job. You can see them create the break QUICKLY, see it worked, and then commit. But I am very impressed WHEN they did it. Because when involves where. They were staying back and conserving, then came to the front. Snapped it off, got up a few seconds. (btw, check out Cav and Chavanel congratulating each other at the back after making the split... they knew what a good move it was and were thrilled to have caught it.)
> 
> .
> 
> So, well done Saxo. VERY well planned, very well executed. :thumbsup:


Apparently Saxo wasn't going to push at first. They considered it inappropriate because of Valverde's puncture. As soon as they decided that he had fallen out of contention, they went to the front and drilled it. 

It was a hell of a move. It sounds like it was a pretty intense place to be. Contador was yelling at the team to push it and he was going in and taking pulls himself. M Rogers couldn't stand up at the end; he had to crawl up the stairs into the team bus. He said it was the hardest effort of his life.


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## BassNBrew (Aug 4, 2008)

gusmahler said:


> I think they are just estimating the power numbers. And I think they are estimating kind of high. E.g., one update I saw said a random hour in the middle of a flat stage was at like 320 watts.
> 
> But if you look at the SRM site (e.g., Le Tour de France Stage 12), where they post actual power meter data, the riders will average about 250 watts for an hour.


They are basing their numbers on one rider doing all the work. When they said peleton was averaging 380 over a certain stretch, that was the average of the power output for all the riders during their stints at the front of the race. You can basically knock off 30% and have the power for most of the guys just sitting in.


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## SFTifoso (Aug 17, 2011)

Skewer said:


> Boooooo, Cavendish won. Sagan needs some of that German juice.


Sagan will be the next Fabian Cancellara, with more climbing and sprinting ability. Cav can keep being a one trick pony.


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## Ridin'Sorra (Sep 7, 2004)

r1lee said:


> the other spaniard that put them down on time?


As mentioned before, Saxo did not attack until Valverde was lost anyways. 

This is turning in a beat-Sky-to-death-fest... and I'm liking the show as it has involved semi-coordinated attacks from several teams to take down a dominant one.

Attacks have came from everywhere... Movistar, OPQS and Saxo up to now. Who's next?

I think it will still be Movistar and Saxo Vs Sky.

Funny how Contador has gained alliances somehow. At the last Vuelta, he got help from Tiralongo and others in a decisive stage and now from Movistar.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

good description from velonews...
?Let?s go!?: How Saxo took it to Froome in the crosswinds


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

never trust the Belgians and the Dutch in a cross wind
Valverde was a consequence of OPQS wanting to drop Griepel and Kittel
Belkin moved their man up the GC
Sagan is a great rider but he is no pure sprinter


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## SFTifoso (Aug 17, 2011)

thechriswebb said:


> Apparently Saxo wasn't going to push at first. They considered it inappropriate because of Valverde's puncture. As soon as they decided that he had fallen out of contention, they went to the front and drilled it.
> 
> It was a hell of a move. It sounds like it was a pretty intense place to be. Contador was yelling at the team to push it and he was going in and taking pulls himself. M Rogers couldn't stand up at the end; he had to crawl up the stairs into the team bus. He said it was the hardest effort of his life.


Hard men! Tomorrow they'll probably just sit back and not help at all with the breakaway chase. I hope they keep taking the fight to Sky, and keep eating away at Froome's lead. I don't want a 2012 TDF repeat.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

So, uhhhhh, is Cav still washed up and needs to retire?


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

spade2you said:


> So, uhhhhh, is Cav still washed up and needs to retire?


^^^ somebody rep that guy

"Cavendish has won twenty-five Tour de France stages putting him third on the all-time list and fourth on the all-time list of Grand Tour stage winners with forty-three victories."

That's a few more than Kittel.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

And Valverde, who's a "savvy rider" according to P&P... was sitting at the back before the first split went down, managed to make the split, began sitting at the back again and, what, got tangled in the feed zone? Tsk.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Cancellara's real strength is TT, while Sagan's is a bit more like Boonen or Hushovd - strong sprinter, maybe not the fastest, but fast enough from smaller group and good at classics.

As to Cav being "one trick pony", I think he will laugh all the way to 34 stage wins.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

55x11 said:


> As to Cav being "one trick pony", I think he will laugh all the way to 34 stage wins.


If you're going to have just one trick, that's a pretty neat trick to have.

His biggest mistake this year (from an armchair quarterback) was thinking that he had a shot at green. His only chance there is if Sagan is DNF, and that's out of Cav's control. He'd have been better off focussing his condition and form on his one trick. It'll be sure interesting to see if he will win the Paris sprint this year. Four lead-out trains fighting throgh those corners onto the Champs? Sweet.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Creakyknees said:


> And Valverde, who's a "savvy rider" according to P&P... was sitting at the back before the first split went down, managed to make the split, began sitting at the back again and, what, got tangled in the feed zone? Tsk.


This is the same P/P who said Andy Schleck had "good form" while he was riding, and loosing time, on the TT


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

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55x11 said:


> As to Cav being "one trick pony", I think he will laugh all the way to 34 stage wins.


That's going to be harder to reach with Griepel and Kittel on form with their own lead-out trains. As far as the sprinters go, I can hardly wait for Paris; that is going to be a battle royale for sure!

==========================================

I was sad to see Valverde losing out, but what a gutsy move by QS that far out. Then I nearly fell out of my seat when Saxo blew off the front and was clearly making time. What an awesome day of racing


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