# TdF 2015 Discus'n Stage 14 Jul 17 Spoilers Rodez-Mende



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*TdF 2015 Discus'n Stage 14 Jul 18 Spoilers Rodez-Mende*

**Note** I originally was off by one day and mistook Saturday's stage to be Friday's. sorry!!**

TdF 2015 Discus'n Stage 14 Jul 18 Spoilers Rodez-Mende


This is a 105-mile mountain stage with no "widow-makers," but a grueling set of significant leg-burners that will test for true grit.

Thus far, we have seen consistent performance from some favored contenders, and some impressive one-day performances from recognized climbers and domestiques. outside of Froome's first-mountain-stage smackdown, we have seen a checkers-match in the pursuit of the podium. I would say "chess match," but we have not quite seen tactics at the chess level. Just ride their legs off.

after the initial 25-mile gradual grind, the riders drop to a painful false-flat of 50 miles, where breakaways might happen as long as the riders are low enough in the standing to not be a threat. Of which there are many, since the first week provided quite a time spread with which to hit the hills.

The final 25 miles includes three climbs where we are likely to see many falling out the back, and probably few serious attacks off the front by overall contenders. Except there is one opportunity for a cotender to make time on Froome - if a rider - hopefully with team, can take a laed on the second to last climb, Cote de Chabrits, then sustain the gap on the short downhill, then sustain the gap on the final climb, Cote de la Croix Neuve, this might be the strategy to take time back from Froome.

Anything against Froome depends on Sky's domestiques falling off the back, and Froome being human.

I don't see much happening on this stage, but if something feasible does get attempted, it might be this jab, if begun at the second-to-last climb.

We have seen one moment of weakness from TJ, and a few from Contador and Nibali. So, TJ empirically remains as the most likely to have some gas in the tank.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Jul 18 profile*

Jul 18 profile


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*One of the tough switchbacks on final ascent D25*

One of the tough switchbacks on final ascent D25


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

One for the sprinters, followed by the climbers. The final ascent to the finish is a b*tch, but not too terribly long.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

I suspect the sprinters will be shelled for the most part by the end of this stage - just trying to make the time cut. J-Rod is a possibility but personally, I'd watch Froomy - he might want to put the final nail in the coffin before the Alpes.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

I don't quite see this stage as a sprinter - too much grueling uphill.
However, the healthy green jersey contest sure has added a lot of pressure to the entire tour thus far.

--Both Contador and Nibali flat?

Instead of looking for PEDs in Froome's pockets, check for carpet tacks.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

PJay said:


> --Both Contador and Nibali flat?
> 
> Instead of looking for PEDs in Froome's pockets, check for carpet tacks.


Wait, what am I saying? It makes more sense to suspect TJ. No, TJ! Stay classy!


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

wow avermaet!

wow breakaway! that was epic - holding off peloton beyond expectation.

no green points at finish today, so sagan looks geat but does not build a gap in green points.

TJ! Hang in there!

I should have reconnoitered the finish - that was hard to follow.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*screen grab Peraud's fall*

screen grab Peraud's fall


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

Looks like the much-maligned (by Tinkov) Peter Sagan will be the saving grace of Tinkoff-Saxo's Tour - time and opportunity have slipped away from Conti - I don't see him bridging the gap to Froomy-Zoomy at this point.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

PJay said:


> I don't quite see this stage as a sprinter - too much grueling uphill.
> However, the healthy green jersey contest sure has added a lot of pressure to the entire tour thus far.
> 
> --Both Contador and Nibali flat?
> ...


those climbs are too much for the Sprinters. A Cat 2, Cat 4 and Cat 2 all in the final 40K
Griepel may grab points @ the intermediate but Sagan will get some points at the end extending his lead


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

LostViking said:


> Looks like the much-maligned (by Tinkov) Peter Sagan will be the saving grace of Tinkoff-Saxo's Tour - time and opportunity have slipped away from Conti - I don't see him bridging the gap to Froomy-Zoomy at this point.


For a Guy that doesn't quite have a stage win and doesn't quite have the green jersey, Sagan is having an impressive Tour. And he's fun to follow.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

PBL450 said:


> For a Guy ...and doesn't quite have the green jersey, Sagan ....


Haven't been paying attention, have you.

See here.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Expect a repeat of yesterday, until they get to Sainte-Enime at 137 km. From there to finish the climbs will separate the pack a bit. Don't really see any difference in team strategies than yesterday. That final short climb to the finish may be another Mur de Huy type finish. Weather could be a factor - quite warm with rain showers and thunderstorms expected over most of the course. Barring crashed and mechanicals, no shake-ups.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

After 1 hr 34 min of riding the TdF Beta tracker shows the leaders group behind the lead break by 05' 13". My guess is the reel-in will begin after the intermediate sprint. Uran Uran is in that lead group, and Sagan is out there somewhere.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Biblical looking clouds as ES has labeled them.... And they do look like they are going to burst. Going to be another wet day


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Yep - they're going to get wet, which will help with cooling.

Just figured out that the break group out front, now 08' 22" ahead of the leaders group isn't a threat at all - the smallest gap in that group is over 17 minutes. They'll let it go, and narrow the gap a bit in the climbs.

Not much to expect until they start that first cat 2 climb up to Cote de Sauveterre, still nearly 50 km ahead.


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## joeinchi (Sep 24, 2010)

ATTACK!!! (finally)


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Wow nice win by MTN...poor Frenchmen denied again


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

wow! what an incredibly boring race and, then-bang!--t all went off on that last climb. awesome result for mtn-qhubecka, who could have expected that?!! 

i love froomie's killer instinct-sprinting for a one second advantage after sitting on the wheel of his top opponent. brilliant stuff!:thumbsup:


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Great finish, both for the stage, and by the overall leaders following. Love the attack by Quintana, and Froome's last 100 m blast. Changes at the top coming. Tejay slips.


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## joeinchi (Sep 24, 2010)

Jeez, Cummings put the hammer down to take the stage for MTN.

Speaking of hammers. Froome looked vulnerable for a second (without Thomas or Porte) but reeled in NQ and then gave him a little something at the end. Amazing. Looks like Tejay drops to 3rd, now some 20 sec behind Quintana.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

I think this puts NQ back in the hunt for real. But with the Alps looming, and Poorte's unfortunate flat up that last climb as an example, Tejay is far from out of the race, and Conti and Nibali are out of it yet either. It's not over until they get to Paris.


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

and, just so we can continue to no longer have nice things: froome confirms that a fan threw a cup of urine in his face..


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

ibericb said:


> I think this puts NQ back in the hunt for real. But with the Alps looming, and Poorte's unfortunate flat up that last climb as an example, Tejay is far from out of the race, and Conti and Nibali are out of it yet either. It's not over until they get to Paris.


...except it is so completely over...unless Froome has a 10-minute long mechanical in the Alps. Nibali and Contador are all but done, they can't even keep up pace on Cat 2 mountains and Quintana can't even get a second long gap on Froome in said mountains....even when Froome is isolated from his team.

That is pretty much the only way the Yellow is coming off his back. Shoot, the Lanterne Rouge competition is more action packed and tighter than the Yellow.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

dnice said:


> and, just so we can continue to no longer have nice things: froome confirms that a fan threw a cup of urine in his face..


Yeah, and someone punched Porte on a climb yesterday. A cup of urine in the face - and then having to race on in the heat - totally gross :eek6:


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Marc said:


> ...except it is so completely over...unless Froome has a 10-minute long mechanical in the Alps.


Don't know what happened after Porte flatted on the last climb, other than a full minute after he stopped he was still waiting for the team car. Had he been with group following the leaders, he would have been back 30-45 seconds behnd Froome. As it turned out he finished back 15 minutes . I doubt he had a 15 minute mechanical, but it probably cost him at least 3 min's. A minute after he pulled over he was still waiting for the car. Three minutes would be enough to drastically change things at the top of the overall GC contenders list.

While most are looking gawking at Tejay's slip and NQ's rise, along with Contador moving up a notch over Galopin, the bigger story is probably that Froome increased his lead over each of the next the next 9 by both rider and position. None of the others in the top 10 gained anything on Froome.


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## coldash (May 7, 2012)

Yet another storming finish from Valvede (he reminds me of Dick Dastardly). He remained with Contador for a while and then sprinted up to join the Quintana / Froome pair with ease. Movistar are looking very strong. It's no surprise they have the team classification at this point.

Meanwhile more examples of "class" from spectators today were Luke Rowe being spat on and Rohan Dennis being punched.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

ibericb said:


> Don't know what happened after Porte flatted on the last climb, other than a full minute after he stopped he was still waiting for the team car. Had he been with group following the leaders, he would have been back 30-45 seconds behnd Froome. As it turned out he finished back 15 minutes . I doubt he had a 15 minute mechanical, but it probably cost him at least 3 min's. A minute after he pulled over he was still waiting for the car. Three minutes would be enough to drastically change things at the top of the overall GC contenders list.


which is only of relevance if a) Froome is completely isolated, no team mate to hand a wheel and b) the attack was already ongoing (or someone really wants to paint a target in his back for the rest of his career).


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

den bakker said:


> which is only of relevance if a) Froome is completely isolated, no team mate to hand a wheel and b) the attack was already ongoing (or someone really wants to paint a target in his back for the rest of his career).


All true for that situation. The point, however, is stuff happens. Is it likely something so drastic will happen to Froome? No. But it remains a reasonable probability. NQ is 3" 10" back, TVG, 3' 32". 

It ain't over 'til it's over. Ever hear of "The Play" from 1982 in U.S. college football (Stanford vs. Cal Golden Bears?


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

ibericb said:


> It ain't over 'til it's over. Ever hear of "The Play" from 1982 in U.S. college football (Stanford vs. Cal Golden Bears?


no and even the epic play of 30 years would probably bore me


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Spectators are getting more and more obnoxious. 
The flares are idiotic and a safety hazard. Breathing that smoke while gasping for air on a climb has to be harming the rider's lungs. It is assault IMO and interfering with the race.
Now they are punching riders? Why would punch Porte? He's a likable guy.
Throwing urine in people's faces is totally messed up. I'd like to see some Gendarmes straighten out that jerk. Hope it's on video somewhere.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

den bakker said:


> Froome is completely isolated


They had five or six around him all day but they paid the price at the end. That's a tired team.

What was Sky thinking when they had Porte -- Froome's most important climbing domestique -- go back for bottles at such a critical moment? A rare but serious tactical mistake by Sky. And then he flats bringing the bottles back to the front. 
He probably finished so far down because his time doesn't matter anymore. Polka dots and second place one day, a few days later out the back. That must be devastating to your morale.
Nice to see him get that push by Cavendish!


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

ibericb said:


> All true for that situation. The point, however, is stuff happens. Is it likely something so drastic will happen to Froome? No. But it remains a reasonable probability. NQ is 3" 10" back, TVG, 3' 32".



Well, we have another rest day on Tuesday. I'm sure all the top GC guys will be 'pumped up' and ready to go...

I wouldn't like it if Froome crashed out of the Tour, that sad way to go out, but a bonk or badly timed mechanical - that would be fair and add some interest to this tour. I don't like having a tour that's one on stage 10


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

den bakker said:


> no and even the epic play of 30 years would probably bore me


Given your nationality, you'd either claim an epic American football play of yesterday bored you, or would object to the whole game on the basis of its savage violence.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

ibericb said:


> Given your nationality, you'd either claim an epic American football play of yesterday bored you, or would object to the whole game on the basis of its savage violence.


neither, I just don't "get it" I guess. It's not true in the sense that I understand but don't care much  And I must admit the commercial breaks really makes it less interesting.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

AJL said:


> Well, we have another rest day on Tuesday. I'm sure all the top GC guys will be 'pumped up' and ready to go...
> 
> I wouldn't like it if Froome crashed out of the Tour, that sad way to go out, but a bonk or badly timed mechanical - that would be fair and add some interest to this tour. I don't like having a tour that's one on stage 10


Meh, the GC is usually like that. The most interesting race in the race are the stages...the GC, well, you usually know who is in the hunt to win it when it starts-and then all competitors but one manage to lose it.

For all the jockeying the ASO tried to do to keep Sagan's green jersey from being just as inevitable, they certainly did make it inevitable.


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## joeinchi (Sep 24, 2010)

ibericb said:


> It ain't over 'til it's over. Ever hear of "The Play" from 1982 in U.S. college football (Stanford vs. Cal Golden Bears?)


I've heard of it. I was there.

That was considered a lock, as well. With time running out, John Elway drove the Cardinal the length of the field for the go ahead. What a fitting way for the future #1 pick and NFL Hall of Famer to end his collegiate career.

Unfortunately, they left 6 seconds on the clock. And you know the rest.


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## jetdog9 (Jul 12, 2007)

In case you've never seen it, this is exactly how it happened:


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Not everybody cares about football. Let's stick to bicycle racing please.


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## jetdog9 (Jul 12, 2007)

OK then... my wife and I have been glued to the TV for every Tour de France over the last 3-4 years or more. We ride for kicks but aren't advanced/serious folks...

...seems to me at this point the GC is a bore to even think about, no? Every attempt to get time back on Froome has been shut down by himself, and beyond that he's got at least 2 guys supporting him that are as strong as the other actual contenders. Barring crash, is there really anything in the Alps stages to give others hope?

My wife has always liked Sagan since seeing him in the Tour of California, we usually root for him and all of the near misses are crazy. Tomorrow's stage his last chance for a stage win this year? 2 green jerseys in a row without a stage win? Really thought he had a chance today even with climbers in the breakaway.

Sorry, the stuff I'm typing is probably what other folks have already said.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Cinelli 82220 said:


> Not everybody cares about football. Let's stick to bicycle racing please.


It's not about football. I cited it as a well known example of unusual things that happen to drastically alter the outcome when all seems done. It's an good example of the old adage about counting your chickens before they hatch. It just happened to come from football.

What's comical about it is that it was so apparent to everyone that Stanford had won with 5 sec's remaining that their band was coming out onto the field in what turned out to be the middle of the final play. Sadly, for them, they were wrong.

14 stages of 21 done. It's not over, until t's over.


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## jetdog9 (Jul 12, 2007)

It was my fault for adding the joke, let's move on. Sorry.


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## gofast2wheeler (Oct 13, 2011)

I agree that's messed up people punching and throwing urine at the Sky boys. With everybody having cell phones it must be on camera on someone's phone. Someone should come forward and report these people, then give then a blanket been at station. That will fix that. With cameras so small I think all riders should have then on for there protection. The fans are right on top of the cyclists, anything can happen. By the way, Froome looked strong today, no pressure from NQ attacks. Tejay I think will loose podium finish, Alberto and Valverde right behind and Valverde looks strong right now.


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

Cinelli 82220 said:


> Not everybody cares about football. Let's stick to bicycle racing please.


As a side... I care a crap load about US college football. And road cycling. I even like ice hockey and speed skating. I realize this is a cycling forum, but some of us do like other sports as well. There is nothing out of line about an American Football reference. My own Scarlet Knights had a miracle finish a few years ago... The point is well warranted... The race leaders, any one of them, could have an epic fail at any moment. And it totally happens... Bear in mind, Froome was long out of this race just last year.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Froomey could still break both wrists.
Even Merckx had a freak accident, breaking his jaw when it looked like his Tour was in the bag. He got punched by a fan in the same race. Still finished second.


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

All it takes is one ill timed moment of wheel overlap. Ask Tony Martin.


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