# Riis: Armstrong can't win the Tour again



## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/riis-says-armstrong-cant-win-the-tour-again

"“There are many more hills this year, the route is harder, and it will give Lance major problems. He must pull himself together to make the top-five."


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## jupiterrn (Sep 22, 2006)

He is probably right....but I say probably because others have counted Armstrong out and he has come back to prove them wrong multiple times. And remember Armstrong uses this as fuel to train harder.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Not much TTing either. I like Andy S and the Saxo boys this year.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

It says Riis is also looking forward to a battle between Contador and Armstrong, and perhaps Bradley Wiggins. Jeeze, Riis should give this a little more thought. If he thinks Lance is going to have problems, Wiggins is not going to do any better.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Yeah the course is designed for the climbers this year.


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## bmxhacksaw (Mar 26, 2008)

I like the Schlecks


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## SlowMo (Apr 18, 2006)

Not sure why he would start discounting anyone at this point, regardless of it being LA or any of last years contenders. 

I agree with Coolhand, I wouldn't mind seeing Andy S up there as well. 

On a side note, I'm somewhat excited that AC's team might be a little stronger than originally thought, so that makes things more interesting. (Another side note: I still hope he loses)


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## cydswipe (Mar 7, 2002)

I have to agree with Riis.


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## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

Why does Riis hate America?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I think this is going to be a hard tour; harder than last year. I'm not going to count Armstrong out because I think he will be in better form this year, but the competition is going to be tough. Frank will never get his TT together, but Andy seems to be getting better as he matures. Andy will be more of a threat to Contador this year. It's really too far out to be making predictions, honestly. I remember this time last year that everyone was getting geared up for a huge rivalry between Cavendish and Boonen that never materialized b/c Boonen seemed to fall apart after Paris Roubaix. So, who knows? I, like many others, will be surprised if Wiggins manages to produce a greater performance than 2009. I would have been interested last year to see how Levi would have done in the final time trial, as he seems to be one of the few guys that can compete with Cancellara and Contador. I'm not quite willing to count him out if Lance does self-destruct. He seems to get better and better each year. . . . 

This far out, my dark horse is Evans. He has become more aggressive lately.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Actually the most fun will be watching the beatdown Carlos "Turd in the Punch Bowl" Sastre gets from the Saxo boys. On top of running his mouth this year when relegated to TdF pretender by a decent field of riders, he now has pissed off his former teammates (either of whom could have probably beat him that year). 

http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/andy-schleck/padding-my-resume



> I've said before that Contador and I have a good relationship but it's not like that between me and all my Tour rivals. I'd like to think I'm a happy-go-lucky guy who gets on with anyone but I've read in the press that Carlos Sastre has been critical of our team and me personally. He said he didn't like taking advice from younger riders and to be honest that hurts.
> 
> In the 2008 Tour de France Frank and I sacrificed our chances for him. Not just on the stage to Alpe d'Huez but throughout the race. Then after the race he came out and said that we weren't committed. That really wasn't nice to hear. I pulled at the front of the peloton for entire climbs for that guy. I would really like to know what's going on in his head and why he thinks that we weren't committed.
> 
> I respect Carlos a lot as a rider and I learnt a lot from him when he was at the team. To be honest it's the first time I've ever experienced this type of problem with another rider and like I said I was really upset. However Frank was even more upset as he takes things a bit more to heart than I do. I'll still talk to Carlos at races, like I said he has my respect but he's gone down in my estimations. I hope our relationship improves in the future as I'm not the type to hold grudges.


Here's a hint Carlos, your plan to hide at the Giro is wise as I predict an even bigger butt kicking this year.


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## davidsthubbins (Jun 15, 2009)

Its fun to speculate about LA, Schlecks, Wiggins, etc. It's a mute point, Contador is untouchable.


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## terbennett (Apr 1, 2006)

thechriswebb said:


> I think this is going to be a hard tour; harder than last year. I'm not going to count Armstrong out because I think he will be in better form this year, but the competition is going to be tough. Frank will never get his TT together, but Andy seems to be getting better as he matures. Andy will be more of a threat to Contador this year. It's really too far out to be making predictions, honestly. I remember this time last year that everyone was getting geared up for a huge rivalry between Cavendish and Boonen that never materialized b/c Boonen seemed to fall apart after Paris Roubaix. So, who knows? I, like many others, will be surprised if Wiggins manages to produce a greater performance than 2009. I would have been interested last year to see how Levi would have done in the final time trial, as he seems to be one of the few guys that can compete with Cancellara and Contador. I'm not quite willing to count him out if Lance does self-destruct. He seems to get better and better each year. . . .
> 
> This far out, my dark horse is Evans. He has become more aggressive lately.



I couldn't have said it better myself.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

http://grammar.about.com/od/alightersideofwriting/a/mootmutegloss.htm


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Coolhand said:


> Actually the most fun will be watching the beatdown Carlos "Turd in the Punch Bowl" Sastre gets from the Saxo boys. On top of running his mouth this year when relegated to TdF pretender by a decent field of riders, he now has pissed off his former teammates (either of whom could have probably beat him that year).
> 
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/andy-schleck/padding-my-resume
> 
> ...


I was a bit offended when Lance unretired and said the things he said about the 2008 Tour. I felt that Sastre had accomplished a classy win and I enjoyed watching it happen in 2008. On the other hand, it was watching the 2008 Tour that made Lance feel like he could come out of four years of retirement and win again. Now I realize that he was absolutely right. I am completely convinced now that the 2009 Lance Armstrong, aged and recovering from a bad injury that left him not even performing at his 100% at the time, would have blown the 2008 TDF to pieces. He would have won it comfortably. I don't believe that Frank Schleck could have beaten Sastre in 2008 because his TT is so terribly poor. Pantani showed that a pure climber can win the TDF, but Pantani was also capable of dropping everyone on the climbs, which Frank cannot do. I don't think that 2008 Andy could have won that Tour, but 2009 Andy could have. 
The competition is obviously greater now, and that was obvious on the faces of the Schecks. I remember in 2008 that neither Andy or Frank ever looked like they were in any difficulty whatsoever, and almost seemed to be smiling sometimes. It was so noticeable that Phil and Paul kept commenting on it. This was not the case in 2009. Contador and even Armstrong were able to force them way out of their comfort zone to remain competative, and Lance was even able to finish ahead of Frank on a couple of climbs. I think that the fact that the Schlecks, who were actually better in 09 than 08, appeared to be suffering more is quite telling of that 2008 TDF.

Lance Armstrong, Alberto Contador, Levi Leipheimer, and Andreas Kloden all would have won the TDF in 2008.


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## twiggy (Mar 23, 2004)

Pablo said:


> Why does Riis hate America?


He clearly loves Cancer! 


As much of a Lance-hater as I consider myself, I wouldn't be so quick to count him out. As we all know, he's probably the strongest of the group mentally, and his drive to win and ability to intimidate gives him an advantage.

That said, I'd love to see Contador, Evans, and A Schleck battle it out this year.... I'd be ecstatic if Andy won!


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## HIMEHEEM (Sep 25, 2009)

pretender said:


> http://grammar.about.com/od/alightersideofwriting/a/mootmutegloss.htm


LMAO!


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## Lazy Spinner (Aug 30, 2009)

Let's see how things look after the first week's cobbles. I suspect that Bruyneel is planning to punish the Schlecks and Contador early on. There is also a very good chance that a favorite will get taken out by a crash on those stages.

That stated, Contador and Andy Schleck have to be the smart money faves but I wouldn't count Lance out. A full year of training, a pissed off dispostion where AC is concerned, and not sapped from riding a full Giro makes him dangerous at the TdF.


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## yater (Nov 30, 2006)

davidsthubbins said:


> Its fun to speculate about LA, Schlecks, Wiggins, etc. It's a mute point, Contador is untouchable.


You saved me a little typing....and I'm a Lance fan. I think you meant "moot point", but "mute point" may be more correct here. It's not worth hearing.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

twiggy said:


> As much of a Lance-hater as I consider myself, I wouldn't be so quick to count him out. As we all know, he's probably the strongest of the group mentally, and his drive to win and ability to intimidate gives him an advantage.



You are right. I did not expect Lance to do as well as he did last year. I was expecting him to fall into the bottom half of the top ten in the Alps. I think everyone knew that Contador would win comfortably, but I also think that everyone who seriously follows professional cycling expected Lance to fall apart. Throw in the broken collarbone and time away from training and his odds went down even more. I found it interesting when Contador, Schleck, and Armstrong finished together on Ventoux. Armstrong has always gotten better as the Tour went along, and he obviously did so in 2009 as well. He went from getting dropped in the first alpine stage, to being able to successfully attack Wiggins and Frank Schleck to keep his place on the podium, to finishing with Andy and Alberto on Ventoux. I doubt he would have beaten Contador, but I really wonder if he might have been able to edge out the number two spot if he hadn't gotten injured in the spring. 

It is absolutely ridiculous to rule Armstrong out as still being one of the top competitors in the sport. Maybe he isn't as explosive as he was in 1999, but he is still very, very good. Some of you will say that I'm comparing apples to oranges, but his mountain bike victory at Leadville was ridiculous. He was competing against people who were dedicated mountain bikers, and for them that was their Tour de France. He demolished the course record, rode solo off the front for 50 miles, and finished 30 minutes ahead of the guy who had dominated the event for years. Oh yeah, he rode the last 8 miles with a flat tire. I've heard plenty of roadies argue about this, presenting it like he slipped into some dinky little local MTB race and sandbagged a victory. This is absolutely not the case. If you think so, then do a little bit of research about mountain biking and see what you find out. That sounds just as ill informed and silly to me as my friends who know so little about cycling that they ask me if I think I have a chance at winning the TDF  just because I ride a bike with drop bars every day: "come on man, I bet you can do it. It's just biking...it's not like you're playing a hard sport like baseball  " 

Anyway, I used to be a Lance hater myself, big time. Since his return to cycling, he has actually earned my respect. He is the second oldest person to stand on the podium of the Tour de France, and he did that after a four year retirement and an injury. I think Contador is in a class of his own right now, but I would not be surprised at all to see Lance on the podium again. Who knows? Lance is a very smart racer and Contador does make stupid mistakes sometimes. All it takes is one big boo boo. . . .

It's not unthinkable.


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## HIMEHEEM (Sep 25, 2009)

davidsthubbins said:


> Its fun to speculate about LA, Schlecks, Wiggins, etc. It's a mute point, Contador is untouchable.


I find this all amusing and want to go on record predicting a 2010 year for contador that mirrors Carlos Sastre in 2009. He will be teamless, leaderless, wearing that stupid hat.

There its done...


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## twiggy (Mar 23, 2004)

thechriswebb said:


> Anyway, I used to be a Lance hater myself, big time. Since his return to cycling, he has actually earned my respect. He is the second oldest person to stand on the podium of the Tour de France, and he did that after a four year retirement and an injury.



I agree with you, only I'd like to add that I've become more respectful of Lance's dominance as an athlete, and less respectful of his personality.... It kinda seems to me like he becomes more of an ass to his competitors each year.... I know in the public eye he seems nice enough, but it will take me a while to forget about his comments on Sastre's win in '08 and the way him and JB treated Conti in '09!


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## teoteoteo (Sep 8, 2002)

Contador will be the strongest. That will be the same as last year. Even more than last year though it will be unspoken but understood that each Schleck, Evans, Wiggins, Armstrong and whomever else is lumped in the bunch need to work together to ditch Albi because they'd all rather fight each other than Albi. Maybe they'll break him, maybe they won't.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

Albi?


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## ultimobici (Jul 16, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> You are right. I did not expect Lance to do as well as he did last year. I was expecting him to fall into the bottom half of the top ten in the Alps. I think everyone knew that Contador would win comfortably, but I also think that everyone who seriously follows professional cycling expected Lance to fall apart. Throw in the broken collarbone and time away from training and his odds went down even more. I found it interesting when Contador, Schleck, and Armstrong finished together on Ventoux. Armstrong has always gotten better as the Tour went along, and he obviously did so in 2009 as well. He went from getting dropped in the first alpine stage, to being able to successfully attack Wiggins and Frank Schleck to keep his place on the podium, to finishing with Andy and Alberto on Ventoux. I doubt he would have beaten Contador, but I really wonder if he might have been able to edge out the number two spot if he hadn't gotten injured in the spring.
> 
> It is absolutely ridiculous to rule Armstrong out as still being one of the top competitors in the sport. Maybe he isn't as explosive as he was in 1999, but he is still very, very good. Some of you will say that I'm comparing apples to oranges, but his mountain bike victory at Leadville was ridiculous. He was competing against people who were dedicated mountain bikers, and for them that was their Tour de France. He demolished the course record, rode solo off the front for 50 miles, and finished 30 minutes ahead of the guy who had dominated the event for years. Oh yeah, he rode the last 8 miles with a flat tire. I've heard plenty of roadies argue about this, presenting it like he slipped into some dinky little local MTB race and sandbagged a victory. This is absolutely not the case. If you think so, then do a little bit of research about mountain biking and see what you find out. That sounds just as ill informed and silly to me as my friends who know so little about cycling that they ask me if I think I have a chance at winning the TDF  just because I ride a bike with drop bars every day: "come on man, I bet you can do it. It's just biking...it's not like you're playing a hard sport like baseball  "
> 
> ...


To compare the competition at Leadville with the field at the Tour is meaningless. If LA had not won it it would be more relevant. Put the top 5 from Leadville in Europe and they'd not last a week in the Tour, let alone be in contention. It has been said time and again that just finishing the Tour is an achievement in its own right.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

ultimobici said:


> Put the top 5 from Leadville in Europe and they'd not last a week in the Tour, let alone be in contention.


In fairness, the same is true the other way around.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

Coolhand said:


> In fairness, the same is true the other way around.


Put the top 5 from the Tour, put them in Leadville, and they wouldn't last a week, let alone be in contention?


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## ultimobici (Jul 16, 2005)

Coolhand said:


> In fairness, the same is true the other way around.


Putting a stage racer in Leadville would be daft. Putting the Leadville guys in a 100mile race on rough stuff in Europe might be interesting. The full Paris Roubaix course is a bit long so just the last 160km would be fair. Put Boonen, Pozzato etc or any of the top 10 from Roubaix or Flanders at Leadville and I think you might have a Euro podium. I'd eat my hat if any of the Leadvillers finish near the top 10 in France or Belgium.


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## Hand/of/Midas (Apr 15, 2008)

pretender said:


> Albi?



No, this Albi.


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## DanTourino (Oct 29, 2007)

jupiterrn said:


> He is probably right....but I say probably because others have counted Armstrong out and he has come back to prove them wrong multiple times. And remember Armstrong uses this as fuel to train harder.


No he uses FRS Energy as fuel!


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## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

Contador won't make it over the cobbles - the Tour is rough in a lot of ways...


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Lazy Spinner said:


> Let's see how things look after the first week's cobbles. I suspect that Bruyneel is planning to punish the Schlecks and Contador early on. There is also a very good chance that a favorite will get taken out by a crash on those stages.
> 
> That stated, Contador and Andy Schleck have to be the smart money faves but I wouldn't count Lance out. A full year of training, a pissed off dispostion where AC is concerned, and not sapped from riding a full Giro makes him dangerous at the TdF.


On paper Lance should be ranked about third or fourth coming in. However, stranger things have happened, some people crash out of the tour, some get sick, some suffer bad days in the mountains and lose 10 minutes. As far as Tour is concerned, being in top 5 favorites gives a fairly reasonable shot for a win. 

However, all things being equal, Contador is a clear favorite. For some reason I want Andy Schleck to win. He is more likable than Conti, in my opinion. I wonder if all the cobblestone-talk is overrated. These could be fairly ineffective stages, as far as GC is concerned. More climbing favors Schleck. My hope is that with weakened team Astana and lack of Bruyneel experienced guidance, Conti will do something stupid - like forget to eat, attack too early, miss an attack.

Lance will be racing for podium - but it is still quite respectable, considering his path so far. I think Wiggo will fail dramatically - too delicate of a balance between power and weight. I will be rooting for Evans - how can you not? There will be some young new guys - Niebali? - who will be new revelation of the Tour.


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## davidsthubbins (Jun 15, 2009)

I hope LA and all the other contenders can make it a true fight....It'll make for a great tour. I just don't see it happening, AC's just a freak of nature. I still think its a mought point.


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## HIMEHEEM (Sep 25, 2009)

davidsthubbins said:


> I hope LA and all the other contenders can make it a true fight....It'll make for a great tour. I just don't see it happening, AC's just a freak of nature. I still think its a mought point.


The moughtiness of the point is incomprehensible.


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

i honestly dont believe the cobbles will be a factor in this race

people will get excited and it will make for good viewing though

as always, the tour will be won in the mountains


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## Raven1911 (Apr 28, 2002)

ultimobici said:


> Put the top 5 from Leadville in Europe and they'd not last a week in the Tour, let alone be in contention. It has been said time and again that just finishing the Tour is an achievement in its own right.


Absolutely not true. Floyd Landis, Cadel Evans and Michael Rasmussen have all done well in the Tour. Granted Landis and Rasmussen have bans now but they did well before being convicted of drug use. These were all MTB riders before turning pro. Not all of them rode in Leadville though, but don't knock MTB riders. I would say Evans has done pretty well in the tour.

In fairness you cannot compare a one day race to the TdF. However, you can compare how well people have peaked for that one race. LA didn't peak very well for the TdF. I don't understand the LA haters here in complaining about his remarks about the 2008 TdF. Look at what he has done for the sport and what he has accomplished. He has the right to say the things he does. I agree he should have had a little more respect for Sastre, but I don't think he was questioning Sastre's ability but his competition he was racing against. He also called out Christian Vande Velde too and I have to agree with his assessment. For Christian to be a contender in the 2008 field IS a bit of a joke. 

If you are calling out LA then you have to address AC as well. Talk about an ass and not respecting anyone on his own team!! He has had problems on other teams as well not just with LA.


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## Sasquatch (Feb 3, 2004)

can you tell us more about Contador's problems with other teams besides Astana/LA?


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## NextTime (Oct 13, 2007)

Armstrong's time trialing iin 2010 will be significantly better than in 2009. 

My prediction . . .


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Coolhand said:


> In fairness, the same is true the other way around.


It's really not true. Leadville is an amatuer event. All of the name contenders besides Lance are long retired MTB pros. Any Tour finisher could probably win Leadville in the same year. World cup would be a closer comparison. Only a few Americans have broke top 10 in the last decade at World Cup level.

I think Lance has a very good chance. I think Contador and his team will fold.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Well, I got precisely the reaction that I expected concerning Leadville. I know that they are two different types of events. To suggest that professional road stage racers are automatically in a higher level of fitness than mountain bike racers is ridiculous, though. The grand tours are special events. I know this. I also agree that it would be unlikely for a mountain biker who had never competed in a road race to do well, but I think that has more to do with inexperience with the tactics than actual physical fitness. I'm sure that with a bit of conditioning that many top pros from the European peloton would be successful in MTB, but I think that given a bit of experience in road races that elite MTB racers could be successful there as well. I wasn't so much making an argument that the winning of a one day race indicated that Lance Armstrong was going to come into the TDF next year and win by a huge margin. I was arguing that he was competing in a very difficult field in a very difficult race against the top athletes in that discipline who have dedicated their entire lives to success in that sport. Those athletes are every bit as physically fit as professional road cyclists, and he absolutely blew them away. He didn't just beat them. He decimated them. That matters. If you compare that to his performance at Leaville in 2008 when he told Wiens to go because he couldn't hold onto him anymore, it reflects a tremendous improvement in his form. Just a couple of years ago, I would have loved to see Lance get dropped by everyone in the first stage, crash, accept a DNF, and admit that he had been cheating all along while weeping at the side of the road. Honestly, I think that a lot of that came from being so irritated with how obsessed everybody was with him and the majority of the U.S. believing that he was absolutely invincible. I feel differently now. He is a very special athlete, whether you like him or not. I will say again that after a four year retirement and an injury, he still placed on the podium of the Tour de France. I really don't think that anyone who actually follows cycling truly expected him to do that. I didn't. I don't think the Tour directors expected it, and I don't think Alberto Contador expected it. He may have even resented it a little bit, as he has been known to voice his frustration with Levi's bad habit of making it to the podium beside him. Who did expect it? People who had raced against him before. Ivan Basso thought he was still going to be the man to beat in the 2009 TDF. 

In a man to man all out race, I think the odds are in Contador's favor. Alberto is kind of a wild gun though, and sometimes age and experience do get the upper hand. He is the boss in the peloton now. He had more control over the peloton in the Giro than the Giro organizers did. He is very, very smart and he knows how to win the yellow jersey and has done so more than anyone else in history. I think a good comparison would be the green jersey competition in the 2009 Tour. There is no doubt whatsoever that Cavendish is the fastest sprinter racing GT's, but Thor is mature, experienced, and knows how to win the green jersey. Cavendish won stage after stage after stage, clearly demonstrating his talent and otherworldly speed. At the same time, Thor managed to finish pretty well in all the mass sprints and was constantly making little tactical moves here and there that went seemingly unnoticed by Cavendish. All it took was one technicality and one relegation, and Cavendish's green jersey was lost and on Thor's back. It doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to think of ways that the yellow jersey could do the same thing. 

Oh well. It is a mewt point.


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## Mr. Scary (Dec 7, 2005)

pretender said:


> Put the top 5 from the Tour, put them in Leadville, and they wouldn't last a week, let alone be in contention?


I guess you haven't seen the latest issue of RBA where Specialized put Andy Schleck against Burry Stander on a road climb and a mountain climb. Stander killed him on the mountain bike and was only slightly slower on the road... There really is a difference between the two sports.


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## Raven1911 (Apr 28, 2002)

Sasquatch said:


> can you tell us more about Contador's problems with other teams besides Astana/LA?


The whole Liberty Seguros team was a mess. There was doping problems throughout. Why do you think they folded?


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Only Rasmussen could match Contador on the attacks. A. Schleck is good and will take second, but he just cannot match the swift acceleration of Contador. I'd say if anything, Cadel Evans will take third this year.


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## Mr. Scary (Dec 7, 2005)

Raven1911 said:


> The whole Liberty Seguros team was a mess. There was doping problems throughout. Why do you think they folded?


Not to mention he is a product of Kelme whose team doctor was the same one at the heart of Operation Puerto.


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## tom_h (May 6, 2008)

Mr. Scary said:


> I guess you haven't seen the latest issue of RBA where Specialized put Andy Schleck against Burry Stander on a road climb and a mountain climb. Stander killed him on the mountain bike and was only slightly slower on the road... There really is a difference between the two sports.


Indeed ... MTBers are strong ... underestimate them at your risk.


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## deadlegs2 (Oct 3, 2009)

tom_h said:


> Indeed ... MTBers are strong ... underestimate them at your risk.



Strong,, but don't be behind them in a pack.


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## btinder (Aug 25, 2007)

Contador will be tough to beat, we all know that. He'd be tough to beat even with a weak team, and he has a decent team.

That being said, I hope Lance wins. His coach, Carmichael, says Lance's numbers now are "as good" as they were in 2004 and 2005. http://velonews.competitor.com/2010/01/news/carmichael-armstrong-months-ahead-of-old-schedule_102597

The question will be whether he has that explosive power he once had. 

One thing thats for sure is he'll be better this year than last year when he managed an impressive 3rd place.


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## Clevor (Sep 8, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> To suggest that professional road stage racers are automatically in a higher level of fitness than mountain bike racers is ridiculous, though.


People forget that when LA retired, the next year I think he participated in a 2-3 hr ATB race, and almost had to quit the race due to cramps. Roland Green lapped the field. LA said it was the hardest two hours he had ever spent on a bike. ATB biking is different; climbing on dirt is murder and it maxes out your heart rate. After the race, LA tried to recruit Roland Green to ride for Discovery Channel.

As for last year's TDF, I watched the stage on Mt. Ventoux when Contador, Schlenk, and LA finished 1-2-3. It looked to me that they worked a deal out so LA wouldn't lose face. They were all talking and consorting with each other on the climb. Also watch Contador, he can stand on his pedals longer than any other pro. He'd stand on his pedals 2-3x longer than the Schlenks on the climb. I think he was holding back in deference to LA. They didn't want to embarrass him.

This year, it's every man for himself. I think Contador will drop LA and it's to be determined if Schlenk can keep up. I'm not entirely sure Contador is entirely clean. He must have learned a lot of tricks riding for Astana and Bruyneel, via his years with LA.


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## btinder (Aug 25, 2007)

Clevor said:


> People forget that when LA retired, the next year I think he participated in a 2-3 hr ATB race, and almost had to quit the race due to cramps. Roland Green lapped the field. LA said it was the hardest two hours he had ever spent on a bike. ATB biking is different; climbing on dirt is murder and it maxes out your heart rate. After the race, LA tried to recruit Roland Green to ride for Discovery Channel.
> 
> As for last year's TDF, I watched the stage on Mt. Ventoux when Contador, Schlenk, and LA finished 1-2-3. It looked to me that they worked a deal out so LA wouldn't lose face. They were all talking and consorting with each other on the climb. Also watch Contador, he can stand on his pedals longer than any other pro. He'd stand on his pedals 2-3x longer than the Schlenks on the climb. I think he was holding back in deference to LA. They didn't want to embarrass him.
> 
> This year, it's every man for himself. I think Contador will drop LA and it's to be determined if Schlenk can keep up. I'm not entirely sure Contador is entirely clean. He must have learned a lot of tricks riding for Astana and Bruyneel, via his years with LA.


I don't believe for a second that the Schlecks held back to save face for Armstrong.


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## philippec (Jun 16, 2002)

btinder said:


> His *coach*, Carmichael, .



LOL, cough, cough.....


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

pretender said:


> Put the top 5 from the Tour, put them in Leadville, and they wouldn't last a week, let alone be in contention?


As mentioned below- the lack of technical skills would have half of them DNF any serious endurance event. Whereas riders like Cadel Evans have come over from the mountain side of things are done well pretty quickly. 

Now could a really good Classics hard man like Stijn Devolder do well in those events if he gave up the road and trainer specifically over time for those events- yes. But it would take him time to get the skills and the experience. The average spindly Spanish or Italian climber- I doubt they could ever get very good at it.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

davidka said:


> It's really not true. Leadville is an amatuer event. All of the name contenders besides Lance are long retired MTB pros. Any Tour finisher could probably win Leadville in the same year. World cup would be a closer comparison. Only a few Americans have broke top 10 in the last decade at World Cup level.
> 
> I think Lance has a very good chance. I think Contador and his team will fold.


I was thinking more of the high level pro endurance mtn bike scene in generally. Any course that is decently technical. As the current world champion has shown, the switch from dirt to road isn't _that_ tough (seeing most of them already train on the road).


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Coolhand said:


> Actually the most fun will be watching the beatdown Carlos "Turd in the Punch Bowl" Sastre gets from the Saxo boys. On top of running his mouth this year when relegated to TdF pretender by a decent field of riders, he now has pissed off his former teammates (either of whom could have probably beat him that year).
> 
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/andy-schleck/padding-my-resume
> 
> Here's a hint Carlos, your plan to hide at the Giro is wise as I predict an even bigger butt kicking this year.


Go back and take a look at the TT results from the year Carlos won, had either Schleck been in the Jersey (unlikely withe Andy as he was 10 mins bhind the day before not sure quite how you thought he was a winner there) they would have lost to Evans as Frank went from 2nd on GC to 6th where as Evans made up hardly any time on Sastre. Over all Carlos was a better rider than either Schleck that year no way they could have beat him they just would have lost the tour.

While Sastres tirade was not cool he did apologize for it. It makes some sense Carlos was pissed last year he was defending champion and deserved some respect which we wasn't getting. Tell ya what when Andy wins a tour (and I agree he might) he can start dumping on Carlos (stange you don't really see Carlos dumping on anyone) til then its Carlos 1 Andy 0.

As afr as working for Carlos neither Andy or Frank did til after he had the jersey on few flat stages. Up til that point they were pretty clearly to me working for themselves.


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

He did finish on the podium with a *terrible *run-up to the tour, training-wise. Seems everyone forgot that. AC is top dog 4sure, but if he crashes or anything, how is LA a dark-horse? With his preferred training/run-up to the tour to be in effect this year, he's practically a favorite (of the non-AC favorites).


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## yater (Nov 30, 2006)

Clevor said:


> People forget that when LA retired, the next year I think he participated in a 2-3 hr ATB race, and almost had to quit the race due to cramps. .


I did this race. It was a ~5hr marathon race. No one lapped the field and Lance did DNF. Roland Green wasn't there. Lance lost his water bottle on the backside of an 18 mile loop and cramped. My gf took a few pics...



















Lance's rig


















Notice the missing water bottle:


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

*My two cents*



moabbiker said:


> Only Rasmussen could match Contador on the attacks. A. Schleck is good and will take second, but he just cannot match the swift acceleration of Contador. I'd say if anything, Cadel Evans will take third this year.


1) Alberto
2) Andy
3) Cadel

L.A. In the top six.

(This scenario based on no serious injuries)

Carlos was peeved that he wasn't getting respected - he was right. He should not have said that about Andy and Frank - but he recanted.
Has L.A. Recanted? No.
I respect L.A. for his achievements and Foundation - but find it difficult to like him.

Just a mood point, I suppose.


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## HIMEHEEM (Sep 25, 2009)

Clevor said:


> As for last year's TDF, I watched the stage on Mt. Ventoux when Contador, Schlenk, and LA finished 1-2-3. It looked to me that they worked a deal out so LA wouldn't lose face. They were all talking and consorting with each other on the climb. Also watch Contador, he can stand on his pedals longer than any other pro. He'd stand on his pedals 2-3x longer than the Schlenks on the climb. I think he was holding back in deference to LA. They didn't want to embarass him.


You have got to be kidding!!!
I suppose Frank dropped from the group, not because he was dropped but he wanted to give up third to Armstrong? 
Could it be that Contador's time standing while climbing was because he needed to?
You are right, its probably a 180 man conspiracy to make LA look good.:thumbsup:


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

btinder said:


> I don't believe for a second that the Schlecks held back to save face for Armstrong.


That makes two of us. The Schlecks were attacking all the way up Ventoux and repeatedly getting caught by Contador and Armstrong.


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## yo mamma (Aug 10, 2009)

HIMEHEEM said:


> You have got to be kidding!!!
> I suppose Frank dropped from the group, not because he was dropped but he wanted to give up third to Armstrong?
> Could it be that Contador's time standing while climbing was because he needed to?
> You are right, its probably a 180 man conspiracy to make LA look good.:thumbsup:


In 2010, instead of post-Tour criteriums, they're gonna help OJ look for the real killers.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

LostViking said:


> 1) Alberto
> 2) Andy
> 3) Cadel
> 
> ...



I'm not sure if this is what you were talking about, but Lance did apologize to Carlos for the things that he said about his Tour win. He did so publicly, and Carlos said that on a ride Lance rode up beside him and apologized personally as well. 

You're right though; mood point for sure.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

The more mud people sling at Armstrong the more he'll push it. I'm willing to bet that he will blow us all away by July. Even if he doesn't win overall he will be in the top few.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

*Moderator's Note*



Mr. Scary said:


> Not to mention he is a product of Kelme whose team doctor was the same one at the heart of Operation Puerto.


Guys- save that stuff for the Doping Forum please. Let's not have to move this thread.


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## lemonlime (Sep 24, 2003)

teoteoteo said:


> Contador will be the strongest. That will be the same as last year. Even more than last year though it will be unspoken but understood that each Schleck, Evans, Wiggins, Armstrong and whomever else is lumped in the bunch *need to work together* to ditch Albi because they'd all rather fight each other than Albi. Maybe they'll break him, maybe they won't.


Interesting point, here. Remember in 2003 when LA was in the toughest spot of any his tour wins and the rest of the field failed to really work together to bring him down? Instead you had Mayo and Vinokourov out on solos and a few other attempts, but no concerted effort with the other contenders that would have, IMO, been an end to LA's consecutive win streak at four.

So T3, how's the boss' form so far?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

lemonlime said:


> Interesting point, here. Remember in 2003 when LA was in the toughest spot of any his tour wins and the rest of the field failed to really work together to bring him down? Instead you had Mayo and Vinokourov out on solos and a few other attempts, but no concerted effort with the other contenders that would have, IMO, been an end to LA's consecutive win streak at four.
> 
> So T3, how's the boss' form so far?


Yeah, I recall Lance recently saying that his form in the 2009 TDF was better than 2003. He has also said himself that he could have lost that one if the rest of the field had worked against him better.


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

My guess is there will be the same results as the 2009 Tour, but in a more dramatic fashion.

As for the mtb vs road arguments -- I'm sure there is very little difference between the creme de la creme mtb and road riders. The difference is that road has a deeper market.

Also realize that they both have completely different training regimens. I've yet to hear of a 3 week grand tour for mountain bikes.


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## lesper4 (Jul 15, 2008)

These are all great points but I would love to see more cross competitions (as an exibition event maybe) between mountain and road riders.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

lesper4 said:


> These are all great points but I would love to see more cross competitions (as an exibition event maybe) between mountain and road riders.


That makes one of you.


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## HIMEHEEM (Sep 25, 2009)

lesper4 said:


> These are all great points but I would love to see more cross competitions (as an exibition event maybe) between mountain and road riders.


Are you suggesting some sort of "cyclocross"


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

Coolhand said:


> Not much TTing either. I like Andy S and the Saxo boys this year.


Lack of a ttt will hurt, too.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

HIMEHEEM said:


> Are you suggesting some sort of "cyclocross"


You better patent that term before somebody steals it from you


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## muscleendurance (Jan 11, 2009)

ZoSoSwiM said:


> I'm willing to bet that he will blow *us* all away by July.


aha! Ive uncovered a Pro in RBR here  
Cadel is that you


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

thechriswebb said:


> I was arguing that he was competing in a very difficult field in a very difficult race against the top athletes in that discipline who have dedicated their entire lives to success in that sport. Those athletes are every bit as physically fit as professional road cyclists, and he absolutely blew them away. He didn't just beat them. He decimated them. That matters. If you compare that to his performance at Leaville in 2008 when he told Wiens to go because he couldn't hold onto him anymore, it reflects a tremendous improvement in his form.
> 
> .


It wasn't a difficult field, it was a group of decent MTB racers, not one of whom could break top 10 at a NORBA national, let alone an international event. Lance's fitness had come far from the previous year, but like Dave Weins himself said after the race, "that wasn't the same guy that won the Tour 7 times". His margin of victory was expected this year.


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## lesper4 (Jul 15, 2008)

no not a combination of the two sports but an event where you switch courses / bikes. road and mountain but not combined.


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## California L33 (Jan 20, 2006)

I think I may be the only Lance fan here, but another win is going to be a really tough nut to crack.

Note to all future champions- don't go out on top. You'll get the itch. Let somebody beat you then think about retiring and you won't spend years thinking, 'What if?'


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## ultimobici (Jul 16, 2005)

Raven1911 said:


> Absolutely not true. Floyd Landis, Cadel Evans and Michael Rasmussen have all done well in the Tour. Granted Landis and Rasmussen have bans now but they did well before being convicted of drug use. These were all MTB riders before turning pro. Not all of them rode in Leadville though, but don't knock MTB riders. I would say Evans has done pretty well in the tour.
> 
> In fairness you cannot compare a one day race to the TdF.


 Which is why I posted this


> _Putting a stage racer in Leadville would be daft. Putting the Leadville guys in a 100mile race on rough stuff in Europe might be interesting. The full Paris Roubaix course is a bit long so just the last 160km would be fair. Put Boonen, Pozzato etc or any of the top 10 from Roubaix or Flanders at Leadville and I think you might have a Euro podium. I'd eat my hat if any of the Leadvillers finish near the top 10 in France or Belgium._


I don't see any former Pro MTB riders there at all.


> However, you can compare how well people have peaked for that one race. LA didn't peak very well for the TdF. I don't understand the LA haters here in complaining about his remarks about the 2008 TdF. Look at what he has done for the sport and what he has accomplished. He has the right to say the things he does. I agree he should have had a little more respect for Sastre, but I don't think he was questioning Sastre's ability but his competition he was racing against. He also called out Christian Vande Velde too and I have to agree with his assessment. For Christian to be a contender in the 2008 field IS a bit of a joke.
> 
> If you are calling out LA then you have to address AC as well. Talk about an ass and not respecting anyone on his own team!! He has had problems on other teams as well not just with LA.


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

Am I the only one who remembers the less than optimal training lance did for the tour last year ? Not saying he should have won, but common sense says hell be even better this year which puts him right there. 
Is shredding your clavicle and riding the Giro his normal training regimen? Not hardly. Admit it, everyone was surprised how he finished last year (training, age, in-fighting). Its scary that he could still beat everyone but 2 with horrible training at his age. I still believe his finish last year shed more light on his _natural _talent than any of his wins. Im likely alone.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

bigmig19 said:


> Am I the only one who remembers the less than optimal training lance did for the tour last year ? Not saying he should have won, but common sense says hell be even better this year which puts him right there.
> Is shredding your clavicle and riding the Giro his normal training regimen? Not hardly. Admit it, everyone was surprised how he finished last year (training, age, in-fighting). Its scary that he could still beat everyone but 2 with horrible training at his age. I still believe his finish last year shed more light on his _natural _talent than any of his wins. Im likely alone.


Armstrong's prep for 2009 Tour was far from "horrible". In fact, an injury can often be a blessing in disguise for training. Recall that Contador was vacationing in Spain the week before the 2008 Giro, which he of course won.

If Armstrong had been terribly out of form before the 2009 Tour, we would have witnessed him coming into form in the latter stages. Instead, his performance was consistent throughout; strong, but outside of the elite circle.

Also remember that Armstrong's podium finish was due in large part to (1) the flukey flat stage with the split and (2) team time trial. When push came to shove in the alpine stages, he couldn't hang with the elites, nor did he have especially strong ITTs.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

His tactical sense will get him spots as well. Lance knows how to race and he'll have all the support in the world to do what he need to do. If he has better training this year and no injuries who can honestly say he won't be a contender? Flaming lance right now must be the cool thing to do. I'm no fanboy that worships him but I recognize he's incredibly talented. 

We love our shining stars but we love to watch them fall even more...


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

ZoSoSwiM said:


> His tactical sense will get him spots as well. Lance knows how to race and he'll have all the support in the world to do what he need to do. If he has better training this year and no injuries who can honestly say he won't be a contender? Flaming lance right now must be the cool thing to do. I'm no fanboy that worships him but I recognize he's incredibly talented.
> 
> We love our shining stars but we love to watch them fall even more...


It's not about "flaming" Armstrong. If you simply take a dispassionate, rational look at his performance this year and last, you will come to basically the same conclusion as Riis.


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## lesper4 (Jul 15, 2008)

What do they same in most team or individual sport when someone not expeted person / team wins...thats way we play the game! 

I think LA has as good a chance as any elite cycliest to win. He is a smart rider he is in good shape and has surrounded him self with a good team / manager. No matter what the results this conversation will be fun to look back on after the tour. Kind of in hinesight(sp).


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

The only reason people are using Leadville as an an exemple is because Lance was there... but it's not a top level mountain bike race. The course is non-technical and the participants are far from being the best in the world, even not the best of the US (US mountain bikers are far from the best in the world). Leadville is over-rated thanks to Lance's media-magnetism. I still have a lot of respect for Wiens, Tinker Juarez and those guys but Wiens is a retired pro, eats a lot of donuts and doesn't even train that much, Tinker is one of the icons of this sport, but he's like 78 years old...

But a more significant road to mtb would be Gilberto Simoni (never as good as a good Lance, or Alberto...), he did race and finish top 10 in some mtb World Cups against much stronger mountain bikers.

Back on topic, I agree with Riis (and some here), Lance was 3rd last year but mostly because his team was the strongest in the TTT. No TTT this year, Lance will be stronger than in 2009 yes but still not good enough to hang with Contador and Schleck on the climbs...

It's early to make any predictions but, given everyone can stay healty and train according to their plans, I think Contador will win again, followed in no particular order by Andy Schleck, Cadel Evans (just having George alone will give him better support than his whole team the last few years and hopefully he can have luck on his side, or lack of bad luck), maybe even Ivan Basso (he too should be stronger this year than last year)... I think Lance will make the top 10.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

"Back on topic, I agree with Riis (and some here), Lance was 3rd last year but mostly because his team was the strongest in the TTT. No TTT this year, Lance will be stronger than in 2009 yes but still not good enough to hang with Contador and Schleck on the climbs..." - DG

+ 1


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## HIMEHEEM (Sep 25, 2009)

pretender said:


> nor did he have especially strong ITTs.


This in all reality is situation critical for Armstrong. His previous wins included some fairly stellar ITT performances. Without some Marked increase in his ITT's versus last year(and the absence of the TTT), his chances of pulling off a win(or podium finish) are in doubt. That doesn't mean we should count out the shack team as a whole. I realistically am more intersted in the team direction and support for other riders who just might (provided they remain upright) have a good tour.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

pretender said:


> It's not about "flaming" Armstrong. If you simply take a dispassionate, rational look at his performance this year and last, you will come to basically the same conclusion as Riis.


Also, the removal of the TTT, the relative lack of TT's and the decent (aka non-2008 ish) field, plus the advanced age of Armstrong means it is very unlikely he wins unless several other riders come up short, are injured, get sick ect.

However, its a 3 week race- anything could happen. In any event, I think it likely were are looking at another solid TdF. Giro may be good too.


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## bigmig19 (Jun 27, 2008)

I never said he was in "horrible form", just that for this creature of habit and detail, his training last year was completely hay-wire.....and still beat everyone but 2! And he's old! So if that isnt a testament to his natural talent, then what of the rest of the peloton? Would you really be that surprised if he nailed it in the TT with proper training this year? He was never THE best climber in a tour, hell be better though. He just needs AC to miss the start one day to win of course. Lots of vaiables in the tour, look at Levi last year.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*age*



Coolhand said:


> Also, the removal of the TTT, the relative lack of TT's and the decent (aka non-2008 ish) field, plus the advanced age of Armstrong means it is very unlikely he wins unless several other riders come up short, are injured, get sick ect.
> 
> However, its a 3 week race- anything could happen. In any event, I think it likely were are looking at another solid TdF. Giro may be good too.


If I recall, the oldest TDF winner was 36 (anyone here have a differenty stat?). Lance is pushing 40. The fact he podiumed last year is miraculous. BUT, itsd a climbers TDF this year. Lance cant climb as he used to. Its a fact, he has admitted it, we have seen it. A top 10 certainly possible, a GT win...dont think so. UNLESS as others have pointed out, everyone has a bad day, the stars do not line up etc etc. Ironicaly this is starting to sound alot like the excuses Ullrich would make up when he came in second


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

In Ullrich's defense, I'm wondering how many Tours he could have won if he had as good a team (teamates, director, doctors) as Lance had during his Tour streak. T-Mobile had good riders but were big zeros in strategies and working as a team, Bianchi/Coast was a low level team...


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*good points*



Dan Gerous said:


> In Ullrich's defense, I'm wondering how many Tours he could have won if he had as good a team (teamates, director, doctors) as Lance had during his Tour streak. T-Mobile had good riders but were big zeros in strategies and working as a team, Bianchi/Coast was a low level team...


T mobil had some top notch riders, no slouchers. BUT, they would shaft another rider to get a jersey which is what happened to Jan when they thought another rider had a better chance and of course, tried to employ tactics which shafted the team.

I do agree that Jan made Team Bianchi


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*never the best TDF climber??*



bigmig19 said:


> I never said he was in "horrible form", just that for this creature of habit and detail, his training last year was completely hay-wire.....and still beat everyone but 2! And he's old! So if that isnt a testament to his natural talent, then what of the rest of the peloton? Would you really be that surprised if he nailed it in the TT with proper training this year? He was never THE best climber in a tour, hell be better though. He just needs AC to miss the start one day to win of course. Lots of vaiables in the tour, look at Levi last year.


I would agree that LA was never the best climber as far as all time. But looking at the 2001 TDF, it was an exhibition. The man climbed like a maniac that year. Of all of the others, 03, possibly the most exciting overall, but his climbing,.....nope, not the best. 99 was fun to watch...but 2001, IMO, he was the best climber that year.


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## HIMEHEEM (Sep 25, 2009)

bigmig19 said:


> I never said he was in "horrible form", just that for this creature of habit and detail, his training last year was completely hay-wire.....and still beat everyone but 2! And he's old! So if that isnt a testament to his natural talent, then what of the rest of the peloton? Would you really be that surprised if he nailed it in the TT with proper training this year? He was never THE best climber in a tour, hell be better though. He just needs AC to miss the start one day to win of course. Lots of vaiables in the tour, look at Levi last year.


I don't think anyone would be surprised with a spectacular performance from LA in any respect. He has proven himself for many years. Our collective opinions (were we all in agreement) would not be enough to unseat him but the bad news for him is that he is not being matched up against opinions, he is up against some of the most talented guys the sport has seen (that just happen to be more than a decade his JR.) equally dedicated to training, and on teams with as much talent and support as his if not more. If he has spectacular form and perfect training, he is still in for the run of his life.


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## SlowMo (Apr 18, 2006)

*Don't forget...*

there was a couple of stages last year that LA played a pretty good domestique for AC. I know people want to continue on that he was all for himself, but I clearly recall him staying back on some breaks so the group he was with didn't follow him. He then made sure he dropped them if/when he made his break. 

Doesn't matter - this is a new year. I don't think Riis' comments were demeaning towards anyone, just giving his opinion. Since we all have one, I think Riis is off base. I think last year helped LA get alot more conditioned for this one, hence I think he'll ride a stronger race. No TTT hurts, but his form will be better this go round too. Nothing "horrific" about his conditioning last year whatsoever, but again, it only helps him now that he's got another year since his comeback. Not predicting a win, but predicting AC's going to suffer regardless now with LA attacking him (since he definitely has nothing to lose and a non-favorite according to the apparent people of knowledge) and the Schleck bros. doing multiple attacks as well.


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## Pscyclepath (May 22, 2008)

ultimobici said:


> Putting a stage racer in Leadville would be daft. Putting the Leadville guys in a 100mile race on rough stuff in Europe might be interesting. The full Paris Roubaix course is a bit long so just the last 160km would be fair. Put Boonen, Pozzato etc or any of the top 10 from Roubaix or Flanders at Leadville and I think you might have a Euro podium. I'd eat my hat if any of the Leadvillers finish near the top 10 in France or Belgium.


The coolest thing about Leadville this year is that it was won by a guy who rode the Tour de France to practice for it ;-)

Anyway, it's a long, long time until the first rider goes down the ramp in July for the Tour. and it's a long way from there to Paris. Anything can happen along the way, and these guys need to make it to the summer in fair enough shape to toe the mark at the Tour first...


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## teoteoteo (Sep 8, 2002)

lemonlime said:


> Interesting point, here. Remember in 2003 when LA was in the toughest spot of any his tour wins and the rest of the field failed to really work together to bring him down? Instead you had Mayo and Vinokourov out on solos and a few other attempts, but no concerted effort with the other contenders that would have, IMO, been an end to LA's consecutive win streak at four.
> 
> So T3, how's the boss' form so far?


2003 was great, I was on Luz Ardiden right where LA caught back on. 

Not sure on the form, watched him test for a few minutes in December and like you'd expect from a pro he puts out ungodly watts and looks fluid doing it, but I'll see when you do.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

davidka said:


> It wasn't a difficult field, it was a group of decent MTB racers, not one of whom could break top 10 at a NORBA national, let alone an international event. Lance's fitness had come far from the previous year, but like Dave Weins himself said after the race, "that wasn't the same guy that won the Tour 7 times". His margin of victory was expected this year.



I'm sorry. I guess I don't know what I am talking about. Consider my argument withdrawn.


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

Riis is playing mind games with his comments. I think LA will do better than Andy - but neither will win the tour.


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## HIMEHEEM (Sep 25, 2009)

pdh777 said:


> Riis is playing mind games with his comments. I think LA will do better than Andy - but neither will win the tour.


I don't know, he seems more like a guy going into a fist fight with a gun in his pocket. He is confidently realistic about his team, and why not? He got two of the best climbers, the best TTist, and a supporting cast willing to sacrifice to make it happen.

On the other hand,(this is based on my interpretation of your comment) If Contador does pull off the win this year, It will certainly set the record straight as to his assumed position as the greatest rider in the game. Previous comments in this thread referred to Ullrich and what he could have done with a good team behind him. We all know that the team means everything and Contador will not have that opportunity this year. We will be able to see if he truly is the inexperienced youngster or if his success came "in spite" of Bruneel and the team tactics. If he can stand alone, which he will likely have to, he will get my vote (however reluctantly due to the hard to stomach finger stupidity).


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## btinder (Aug 25, 2007)

pretender said:


> Armstrong's prep for 2009 Tour was far from "horrible". In fact, an injury can often be a blessing in disguise for training. Recall that Contador was vacationing in Spain the week before the 2008 Giro, which he of course won.
> 
> If Armstrong had been terribly out of form before the 2009 Tour, we would have witnessed him coming into form in the latter stages. Instead, his performance was consistent throughout; strong, but outside of the elite circle.
> 
> Also remember that Armstrong's podium finish was due in large part to (1) the flukey flat stage with the split and (2) team time trial. When push came to shove in the alpine stages, he couldn't hang with the elites, nor did he have especially strong ITTs.


Apparently you didn't watch the same Tour as the rest of us did.

Armstrong DID come into better form as the Tour went on. He was dropped on the first alpine stage and at the end of the Tour was able to counter the attacks the Schlecks through at him on Ventoux.

And face facts: he had HORRIBLE training last year. He broke his collarbone in several places and missed 3 weeks of necessary training. Not to mention it was his first year back in racing after 3 years of lay off. That's quite significant.


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

Based on last years tour - Conty is without a doubt the strongest rider


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

Based on last years tour - Conty is without a doubt the strongest rider - based on TT's and climbing. If he is in the same condition he will be very tough to beat, by anybody.

Riis, I think he is using pshycological warfare at this point - realistically, he needs to have Andy be able to TT better to get a win - this will cost him. Further it doesn't matter what other team members are able to do individually - neither Frank or Spartacus - if Andy can't reduce his own minutes. The team can help in get into position for climbing but he has to deliver the goods and TT.

LA is as big an unknown this year as last - due to:
1) his injuries last year - how much did they affect him
2) How much will another year of training help him
3) How much will age affect him


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

btinder said:


> Armstrong DID come into better form as the Tour went on. He was dropped on the first alpine stage and at the end of the Tour was able to counter the attacks the Schlecks through at him on Ventoux.


His performance on Ventoux was commendable and he beat who he needed to, namely Wiggins.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

pretender said:


> His performance on Ventoux was commendable and he beat who he needed to, namely Wiggins.


And Frank.


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## hipcheck5 (Dec 11, 2009)

Let's keep in mind that Armstrong and Johan are pretty smart when it comes to winning Le Tour. I am betting LA will be doing a whole lot of climbing to prepare this year. Will he win? Who knows. Will he be better prepared this year? Yes, barring injury.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Well, Contador is the man right now, and has so far demonstrated himself to be the strongest in the sport at this time. No one can argue that the odds are not in his favor. Not a single one of us can say for sure who will win in July, though. If this is an argument over whether or not Armstrong can be competitive this year, then I don't think anyone can seriously argue against that. Armstrong was competitive in 2009, and most people believe that it is possible for him to come into the 2010 Tour in better form. I am not predicting an Armstrong win; I'm just saying that barring some sort of injury, we have no reason not to believe that he will be a competitive factor in the race. 

I don't think that out-climbing Contador is going to be a possibility. We've only seen one person do that, and I don't expect that he will ever be seen in the TDF again. Lance's only fighting shot is to be able to ITT like he could ten years ago. If he wants to win the Tour, he will have to beat Contador in the time trials. I wonder if Contador will be able to maintain what he did last year in time trials; he kind of scared me. It freaked me out when he started putting away guys like Zabriskie and Cancellara in ITT's.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Passion and drive are impressive things... Work your whole life for something and see how much you're able to push. 

No matter what this years tour will be full of excitement. Might just have to buy the over prices DVD set after. haha.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

ZoSoSwiM said:


> Passion and drive are impressive things... Work your whole life for something and see how much you're able to push.
> 
> No matter what this years tour will be full of excitement. *Might just have to buy the over prices DVD set after.* haha.



Me too. Because, you know, I'll be there.  

Who knows what this year will bring. 

Cont I still just can't seem to "like". There's just something about that boy that grates on me like fingernails on a chalkboard. Could be a completely stellar person for all I know...but, still. 

The Schlecks seem like nice kids, I wouldn't mind seeing them (or LA) put Cont into the puke-zone. Not at all.


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

*VAM Perspective*

So look at it from a w/kg or VAM perspective:

09 - tour AC ~ 6.73/w/kg, LA ~6.25, or VAM of 1850 v 1720 (Verbier). Now that was an ET performance to say the least. 

LA has to improve about 7% to stay with AC. BTW I don't think LA has ever completed a (TdF) climb at over 1800 vam. 

So even at his best LA probably could not have beat AC in 09. So 2010 does not look that good for LA or any other contender...


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

> Cont I still just can't seem to "like". There's just something about that boy that grates on me like fingernails on a chalkboard. Could be a completely stellar person for all I know...but, still.[


It's that pistolero act - grates on me too.


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## fontarin (Mar 28, 2009)

pdh777 said:


> It's that pistolero act - grates on me too.


I could never quite place it either, but that's probably what I dislike about him too.


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## btinder (Aug 25, 2007)

pdh777 said:


> It's that pistolero act - grates on me too.


And he's always wearing that damn pistolero hat. UGH.

Here's a pic of it if you're unfamiliar:
https://cyclocosm.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/hat.jpg


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

btinder said:


> And he's always wearing that damn pistolero hat. UGH.
> 
> Here's a pic of it if you're unfamiliar:
> https://cyclocosm.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/hat.jpg


If he wore a pirate hat or something it might be mildly interesting but that thing is just dull. And irritating..


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## orangeclymer (Aug 18, 2009)

thechriswebb said:


> Well, Contador is the man right now, and has so far demonstrated himself to be the strongest in the sport at this time. No one can argue that the odds are not in his favor. Not a single one of us can say for sure who will win in July, though. If this is an argument over whether or not Armstrong can be competitive this year, then I don't think anyone can seriously argue against that. Armstrong was competitive in 2009, and most people believe that it is possible for him to come into the 2010 Tour in better form. I am not predicting an Armstrong win; I'm just saying that barring some sort of injury, we have no reason not to believe that he will be a competitive factor in the race.
> 
> I don't think that out-climbing Contador is going to be a possibility. We've only seen one person do that, and I don't expect that he will ever be seen in the TDF again. Lance's only fighting shot is to be able to ITT like he could ten years ago. If he wants to win the Tour, he will have to beat Contador in the time trials. I wonder if Contador will be able to maintain what he did last year in time trials; he kind of scared me. It freaked me out when he started putting away guys like Zabriskie and Cancellara in ITT's.


Wrong on many counts. LA is far and away the best climber to ever ride the TDF period with or without Contador in the field. Contador cannot ride TT's like LA either.

09 became a training yr for LA once he got injured make no mistake. He sized up his competition is all he did for the entire 09 TDF and readied himself for 2010 so buckle up ladies cuz the man is back.


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

safetyguy said:


> So look at it from a w/kg or VAM perspective:
> 
> 09 - tour AC ~ 6.73/w/kg, LA ~6.25, or VAM of 1850 v 1720 (Verbier). Now that was an ET performance to say the least.
> 
> ...


There are 10,000 different people who analyzed VAMs at the TdF this year. None of the people can agree, and most of them far over-state it.

State your source.


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

You said "Evans"!!! Hahahahahahaha. That is all.....


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## Raven1911 (Apr 28, 2002)

I will have to say that the argument of LA vs. AC is valid, HOWEVER, I think LA's TEAM will be much better and will support him better in the tour. I haven't looked at AC's team very well, but I know Johan will make sure the whole team works as a team. AC could be better, but will get nowhere without a team in the tour.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

orangeclymer said:


> Wrong on many counts. LA is far and away the best climber to ever ride the TDF period with or without Contador in the field. Contador cannot ride TT's like LA either.
> 
> 09 became a training yr for LA once he got injured make no mistake. He sized up his competition is all he did for the entire 09 TDF and readied himself for 2010 so buckle up ladies cuz the man is back.


I like Lance's chances but Lance has not proven that he can climb or TT with Contador. This is a matter of looking at the scoreboard. Conti won the last long TT over Cancellara who is clearly the best TT rider of this generation, he'd also won TT's in many other racers against specialists. He also handled all comers in the mountains. In effect, he won the Tour the same way as Lance used to, by beating everyone in every discipline.

FWIW, it's January and everyone is assuming perfect preperation for both Lance and Conti. We've got months of hectic races in which any of the contenders could get injured.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

iliveonnitro said:


> There are 10,000 different people who analyzed VAMs at the TdF this year. None of the people can agree, and most of the far over-state it.
> 
> State your source.



I'm not sure I'm a believer in the VAM's from 09 myself. The numbers some are attributing to Contador on Verbier extend so far beyond anything that anyone has ever done in the TDF that it seems fishy to me. I am not an expert on this, but there are many that would argue that Contador's wattage was overestimated by about 70 watts on that stage. People are also comparing his VAM on that stage to VAM's others achieved on climbs that were much longer than that one. I think VAM is a good tool to measure someone's climbing prowess, but I do not believe that one is comparing apples to apples one hundred percent of the time with VAM, either.


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## a_avery007 (Jul 1, 2008)

conti is one of the best climber's ever (raz was better) and turned into a great tt'er
lance is a great climber and a great tt'er

lance has the far superior team hands down, but remember no team tt this year so lance will not gain any time that way, if it was he would get 1-2 minutes easy..

now how conti beat spartacus is a totally different conversation....


will still pull for anyone but contisnore, and remember never, ever count lance out, regardless what you think of him personally..

how he got 3rd last year still blows me away...


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

orangeclymer said:


> Wrong on many counts. LA is far and away the best climber to ever ride the TDF period with or without Contador in the field. Contador cannot ride TT's like LA either.
> 
> 09 became a training yr for LA once he got injured make no mistake. He sized up his competition is all he did for the entire 09 TDF and readied himself for 2010 so buckle up ladies cuz the man is back.





Did you watch the TDF in 09? 

I wouldn't mind seeing Contador lose to Armstrong, but the odds are clearly in Alberto's favor. 

Contador rode some wicked TT's in 09. 

Lance was and is a very fine climber, but far and away the best ever to ride the TDF? That would be a tough argument to make. I guess you could quote the TT on Alpe D'Huez, but climbing TT's are different. There are several people that one could argue as the best ever. Pantani in his prime was pretty unbeatable. In recent tour history, the best climber was probably the chicken. He isn't that popular, but it's hard to picture him not in the polka dot jersey. The numbers aren't that impressive on paper, but Lemond/Hinault owned the mountains so dominantly in 86 that it wasn't even close. I would also be interested to see what Coppi could have done with a 15 pound bike with modern race wheels. For several years he was never caught on a breakaway.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I'm also in the camp of those who say the tour is seven months away and anything can happen between now and then. Fabian Cancellara has been trying to improve his climbing.... :-D


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## ultimobici (Jul 16, 2005)

orangeclymer said:


> Wrong on many counts. LA is far and away the best climber to ever ride the TDF period with or without Contador in the field. Contador cannot ride TT's like LA either.
> 
> 09 became a training yr for LA once he got injured make no mistake. He sized up his competition is all he did for the entire 09 TDF and readied himself for 2010 so buckle up ladies cuz the man is back.


LMFAOROF!!!! Contador is more successful in GT terms than LA was at the same age, having won 3 by 28 to LA's 1. The way he rode in the mountains this year without a shield like LA used at his peak was stunning. It was reminiscent of a combination of Lemond's 86 & 89 Tours, no team/despite the team. Contador has time on his side, at 29 he is 10 years LA's junior. His recovery will be quicker. That's not to say he'll walk off with it. Rather LA needs to exploit every opportunity and then some. 

My money says AC with the Schlecks. LA will be top 10 if he finishes.

BTW, AC is Spanish Time Trial Champion so winning against Cancellara a couple of days after FC buried himself for the Schlecks isn't that suprising at all.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Did anyone watch Paul Sherwin's interview with Lance Armstrong last night? I think he said it best himself. The modern Lance seems to be a much more humble character than the Lance of a decade ago. He admitted Alberto's dominance and repeatedly referred to him as the best in the sport right now, calling Alberto a "5 star favorite" and himself a "2 star favorite." He also revisited the controversial Contador attack that dropped Kloden, which he had said cost Astana an opportunity for a 1-2-3 finish. He said that now that he thinks about it, the probable outcome of Contador NOT attacking there would have been Andreas in 2nd or 3rd, and him (Lance) in 4th or 5th. Concerning this year's Tour, Lance says that he can win, but not by pure physical dominance. He said that it is possible that he can play his cards correctly and that the situation could just turn in his favor. He cited the 2003 Tour, and claimed that he only won that Tour because he got lucky and things just worked out for him.

I think that is a fairly balanced and reasonable perspective, and it is in the same manner that I believe that it is possible that he could win this year; not really likely, but possible.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

I think the real question is who will beat whom between Armstrong and Wiggins.


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

We don't know if Wiggins finish last year was real or a fluke - this year will tell.

Was he a one hit wonder or will he be consistently good?


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

pdh777 said:


> We don't know if Wiggins finish last year was real or a fluke - this year will tell.
> 
> Was he a one hit wonder or will he be consistently good?


Wiggins is far from being a climber. Couple his lack of climbing with a bunch of GC favorites having a bad day at the tour, and he was lucky to get 4th.

He'll be lucky to make top 8 next year. It's a climber's Tour. Here is my preliminary top 13, with only my top 3 choices ranked:

1. Contador
2. S Schleck
3. Armstrong
4-12. Evans, Sastre, Kloden, Nibali, F Schleck, VandeVelde, Menchov, Gesink, Basso
13. Wiggins

Wiggins *might* beat: Kloden, Nibali, Vande Velde, Tony Martin, Kreuziger, Pellizotti, and one random person who has a bad day in the 4-12 category above.


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## yo mamma (Aug 10, 2009)

pdh777 said:


> We don't know if Wiggins finish last year was real or a fluke - this year will tell.
> 
> Was he a one hit wonder or will he be consistently good?



Wiggins = Julich


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

orangeclymer said:


> Wrong on many counts. LA is far and away the best climber to ever ride the TDF period with or without Contador in the field. Contador cannot ride TT's like LA either.
> 
> 09 became a training yr for LA once he got injured make no mistake. He sized up his competition is all he did for the entire 09 TDF and readied himself for 2010 so buckle up ladies cuz the man is back.


Let me guess, you have a Trek and never knew what the Tour was before 1999...


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

iliveonnitro - good preliminary picks

Come to think of it Wiggins will have a harder time this year due to the climbing - Agree Wiggins will be lucky to get top ten.
VDV could be an interesting x factor if healthy - he should be the undisputed team leader going in.
IMHO LA and Andy are equals due to LA's superior TT skills, and Andy's possible superior climbing skills. Although I think on the climbs LA could mark him pretty consistently. LA could realistically get 2nd


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## safetyguy (Mar 17, 2006)

I can send you plenty of sources and we could indeed argue about VAM, vo2max and w/kg all day... But how about you just look at the times: 

AC was 3.4% faster than Schleck and 7.5% faster than LA - this means his VAM and/or w/kg were the exact same % better - so even if say AC w/kg were say (only) 6.5 then LA would be exactly 7.5% lower. Now go ahead and do the math on Mt.V and see the difference in times and then express them as a % of time - this will equal the difference in VAM and w/kg.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Lance is still an X-factor. If he were to reach the same form he had at his last tour win (hard to imagine this many years on but work with me here..), we'd see another 7 minute rout. Contador's 07' Tour win was impressive but it was gifted by Chicken's expulsion (he had handed Conti's hat to him until then), the same Chicken that was routinely ridden of Lance's wheel whe he was in his prime. Let's not forget just how dominant Lance was. He attacked at the bottoms of climbs and took minutes, not at the top for seconds. Same goes for Basso, if he gets back to 06' form, lookout.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

davidka said:


> Lance is still an X-factor. If he were to reach the same form he had at his last tour win (hard to imagine this many years on but work with me here..), we'd see another 7 minute rout. Contador's 07' Tour win was impressive but it was gifted by Chicken's expulsion (he had handed Conti's hat to him until then), the same Chicken that was routinely ridden of Lance's wheel whe he was in his prime. Let's not forget just how dominant Lance was. He attacked at the bottoms of climbs and took minutes, not at the top for seconds. Same goes for Basso, if he gets back to 06' form, lookout.



I agree with you, but you have to consider that 07 Contador is not the same as 09 Contador. His TT has improved. 2007 Contador lost 2'17" to Levi in the 2007 final TT, and I imagine Rasmussen probably would have lost at least another minute on top of that. Contador wouldn't have been able to pull the yellow jersey off of his shoulders then, but now Contador can TT in the same caliber as Leipheimer and Cadel, who placed 1st and 2nd in that stage. So, a modern Contador could have taken 4 minutes out of Rasmussen in 07 and won the tour theoretically.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

thechriswebb said:


> Did anyone watch Paul Sherwin's interview with Lance Armstrong last night? I think he said it best himself. The modern Lance seems to be a much more humble character than the Lance of a decade ago. He admitted Alberto's dominance and repeatedly referred to him as the best in the sport right now, calling Alberto a "5 star favorite" and himself a "2 star favorite." He also revisited the controversial Contador attack that dropped Kloden, which he had said cost Astana an opportunity for a 1-2-3 finish. He said that now that he thinks about it, the probable outcome of Contador NOT attacking there would have been Andreas in 2nd or 3rd, and him (Lance) in 4th or 5th. Concerning this year's Tour, Lance says that he can win, but not by pure physical dominance. He said that it is possible that he can play his cards correctly and that the situation could just turn in his favor. He cited the 2003 Tour, and claimed that he only won that Tour because he got lucky and things just worked out for him.
> 
> I think that is a fairly balanced and reasonable perspective, and it is in the same manner that I believe that it is possible that he could win this year; not really likely, but possible.



Indeed it should be an excellent and interesting race whatever the outcome, given the players. 

We can all agree on that, I'm sure.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Indeed it should be an excellent and interesting race whatever the outcome, given the players.
> 
> We can all agree on that, I'm sure.



agreed


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

davidka said:


> Same goes for Basso, if he gets back to 06' form, lookout.


i think we all know this is unlikely!

the tour this year will be pretty good viewing, bert will win his third, lance will lose again... :thumbsup:


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