# Using WKO to predict a peak



## multirider (Nov 5, 2007)

Does this chart mean that I will "peak" on 7/27/2010 and that is the optimal time to race? 

Does it say that I should do nothing between now and then in order to peak for the race?

Here's the real question: my absolute TOP priority race is on August 14. It is a 100 mile event that I've been training all year for and every other ride/race I've done was with the Aug 14 race in mind.

How do I use WKO to help me arrive at the starting line in "peak" condition?

Thanks!


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

What I got from reading "Training and Racing With a Power meter is that on average most athletes do their best performances with a TSB between -5 and +12.

Having a TSB of +50 would make you very well rested but likely too rested.

You're going to want to put in some work all the way up till your race. You have plenty of time for another couple hard weeks before a taper prior to your event. I'd work hard for another 2 weeks and then plan on having your TSB around +5 to 10. Every athlete responds differently to rest and taper.. Some need more work before their event and some do best with very little fatigue. 

Think back and try to remember how you felt before other events. You want to replicate that feeling. Once you get to that point where you feel like you're ready to pop with stored energy take note of your current TSB and remember it for future events.


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## Alex_Simmons/RST (Jan 12, 2008)

multirider said:


> Does this chart mean that I will "peak" on 7/27/2010 and that is the optimal time to race?
> 
> Does it say that I should do nothing between now and then in order to peak for the race?


No & No.
The CTL, ATL & TSB on that date will also depend on what you do between now and then.

What CTL / TSB combination works for you is dependent on many things, including the type of event being targeted, the nature of your recent training and your individual response to the training.



multirider said:


> Here's the real question: my absolute TOP priority race is on August 14. It is a 100 mile event that I've been training all year for and every other ride/race I've done was with the Aug 14 race in mind.
> 
> How do I use WKO to help me arrive at the starting line in "peak" condition?


The Performance Manager Chart in WKO+ is not a predictive tool. It is a retrospective analysis tool. So you use it to assess previously successful performances so that you can replicate a similar lead in for future events.

You could of course enter in some dummy workouts to see how the chart plays out into the future with different TSS entries, but it's usually more convenient/easier to do that in your own spreadsheet.


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## multirider (Nov 5, 2007)

ZoSoSwiM said:


> What I got from reading "Training and Racing With a Power meter is that on average most athletes do their best performances with a TSB between -5 and +12.


Well, bummer. I thought predicting peaks was the whole point of the Perf Mgmt chart. 

I got out my Training and Racing With Power book and read the 20 pages they list in the index for peaking (pages 121-141). I didn't see anything about using the TSB. *What pages did you find that on?*

I have tried to record how I felt in the Post-Ride notes. I have about 90% "Felt good, not great" kind of comments. A couple of "Felt great!" and one "Felt like Superman", but the TSB was quite different for each.

Upon further reflection of both comments from Alex and ZoSo, I realize that stopping all training would send me sliding down the blue line which, I think, would indicate a loss of fitness. Not good.

I've been riding all week - short (60-90 minute) rides with some intensity (reaching the bottom of HR Z4 for 2-5 minutes). I have a 68 mile race tomorrow that is my "test" event prior to the 100 miler in August. I plan to test my fueling and test my ability to recover from hammering the uphills at high altitude (10,000-11,500 feet). It should be a good simulation / test for my "A" race of the year on Aug 14.

WKO says my TSB was -4.2 yesterday and that it is +1.9 today. I hope that bodes well for my race rest/fitness for tomorrow!


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

You'll do great. WKO is predicting that right now you're well rested. A positive TSB simply means that you're rested and not fatigued.

Kick some ass tomorrow!


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

multirider said:


> Well, bummer. I thought predicting peaks was the whole point of the Perf Mgmt chart.
> 
> I got out my Training and Racing With Power book and read the 20 pages they list in the index for peaking (pages 121-141). I didn't see anything about using the TSB. *What pages did you find that on?*
> 
> ...


You cannot physically "peak" now and again in August, so I recommend keeping the TSB negative until you actually want to peak. It's not always a bad thing, but in this case, it's probably not a good thing.

As for the page to which Alex is referring, I don't know it off the top of my head, but I've read a lot on it. It could be from the wattage listserv, a brief guide on training with power, or just based on experience. Typically, though, -5 to +15 is the goal. Use the lower end (+-5) for longer events/stage races and +5 to +10 for the one-day events. Your body doesn't exactly know what the difference is between +5 and +15 (or -5 and +15, to be honest), but your taper to that point is what will determine your exact peak and optimal TSB.


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## mward (May 13, 2004)

multirider said:


> Here's the real question: my absolute TOP priority race is on August 14. It is a 100 mile event that I've been training all year for and every other ride/race I've done was with the Aug 14 race in mind.!


Leadville 100?


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## mward (May 13, 2004)

Hey here's some stuff about using TSB for tapering before an event, it's for runners but probably applies: http://home.trainingpeaks.com/articles/running/tapering-with-wko.aspx


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## Alex_Simmons/RST (Jan 12, 2008)

iliveonnitro said:


> As for the page to which Alex is referring, I don't know it off the top of my head, but I've read a lot on it.


Don't think I referred to anything in particular, but the chapter on this topic only appears in the 2nd edition of the Allen/Coggan book, _Training and Racing with a Power Meter_. It's all laid out in Chapter 8.

The Performance Manager wasn't publicly available when the first edition of the book was published. Some of us were fortunate to be beta testers for it well before it went live though.

When I say the Performance Manager isn't predictive, what I mean is in the sense of how it is implemented in WKO+. It's not easy/convenient to generate future scenarios and play "what if?" based on future daily TSS.

I have my own spreadsheets for doing that. There are some floating about, probably one or two over at the files section of the wattage list.


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## multirider (Nov 5, 2007)

iliveonnitro said:


> You cannot physically "peak" now and again in August, so I recommend keeping the TSB negative until you actually want to peak. It's not always a bad thing, but in this case, it's probably not a good thing.


Sorry, I'm not clear on which "it" you are referring to -- a positive TSB? or a negative TSB? or something else?

I felt great for the race on Saturday. Neglected hydration and fueling for the first 35 miles and paid for it the rest of the race. Started feeling bad approx mile 35, started consuming energy drink heavily in an attempt to catch up, that backfired, huge stomach ache, couldn't eat or drink which made things worse, was really miserable and suffering from about mile 70 through the end. It could have been a good race, but I got too excited and too focused on power/HR in the first 35 miles and blew the other critical component of fueling.

I need to do a little more research on TSB. I don't understand it. The running article referenced above is interesting. Other recommendations are welcome.


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## multirider (Nov 5, 2007)

Alex_Simmons/RST said:


> There are some floating about, probably one or two over at the files section of the wattage list.


Sorry, kind of a newbie to all this - floating around where? What is "the wattage list"? Where is "the files section"? Thanks.


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## mward (May 13, 2004)

I think he means this: http://groups.google.com/group/wattage/about?pli=1


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## multirider (Nov 5, 2007)

mward said:


> Leadville 100?


Yep, that's correct - my "A" race for the year is the Leadville 100. Are you racing it? Trying to "peak" for it?


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## multirider (Nov 5, 2007)

iliveonnitro said:


> It's not always a bad thing, but in this case, it's probably not a good thing.


I'm still not clear on what isn't always a bad thing but probably isn't a good thing in this case. A negative TSB? Or a positive TSB? Or something else? If either a negative or positive isn't a good thing in this case, why or why not?

I'm eager to learn. Very interested in guidance and the reasoning behind it. 

The TrainingPeaks article referenced above was quite interesting. I've done some 5 and 6 hour rides, did an 8 hour effort last weekend, but haven't done the anticipated 9-10 hour effort of the Leadville 100. So I'm sure I need to be rested. But how rested? I recover pretty quickly. After utterly destroying myself this past Saturday due to poor hydration/nutrition (spent 2 hours in the EMT tent shaking uncontrollably and other symptoms; consumed 110 ounces of water and Gatorade before having to pee), I had a good day on Tuesday, then felt great and really killed it last night with big (for me) power numbers.


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## mward (May 13, 2004)

multirider said:


> Yep, that's correct - my "A" race for the year is the Leadville 100. Are you racing it? Trying to "peak" for it?


Next year. I'm coming off a 2 year layoff, been training for the last year but my legs aren't ready for that yet. I am doing Rapture in Misery though, same day. 6 hour solo. We'll see how it goes. Good luck. Let us know how it goes, please. Especially me, I'd like a full report, if there's one to be had. Friend of mine did it last year, finished in 11:45. I want that belt buckle, it's like the pimp cane of mountain biking.


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

multirider said:


> I'm still not clear on what isn't always a bad thing but probably isn't a good thing in this case. A negative TSB? Or a positive TSB? Or something else? If either a negative or positive isn't a good thing in this case, why or why not?
> 
> I'm eager to learn. Very interested in guidance and the reasoning behind it.
> 
> The TrainingPeaks article referenced above was quite interesting. I've done some 5 and 6 hour rides, did an 8 hour effort last weekend, but haven't done the anticipated 9-10 hour effort of the Leadville 100. So I'm sure I need to be rested. But how rested? I recover pretty quickly. After utterly destroying myself this past Saturday due to poor hydration/nutrition (spent 2 hours in the EMT tent shaking uncontrollably and other symptoms; consumed 110 ounces of water and Gatorade before having to pee), I had a good day on Tuesday, then felt great and really killed it last night with big (for me) power numbers.


I was referring to having a negative TSB is not always a bad thing, even through races. In fact, usually the opposite.


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