# Armstrong will not finish in Top 5



## Macilvennon (Jun 22, 2009)

*Armstrong will not finish in the Top 5 of this years TDF.*

*My Top 5 for GC:*
(1) - Alberto CONTADOR
(2) - Bradley WIGGINS
(3) - Levi LEIPHEIMER
(4) - Cadel EVANS
(5) - Andréas KLÖDEN

Want to put a bet on?


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## tri-ac (Aug 4, 2008)

kloden is working too hard already...probably will fall out of the top 10


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## tom_o (May 6, 2004)

When we get into week 3, Kloden and Leipheimer will be dragging AC and Armstrong up cols, then seeking the refuge of the gruppetto. No way they finish that high up, imo.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Macilvennon said:


> *Armstrong will not finish in the Top 5 of this years TDF.*
> 
> *My Top 5 for GC:*
> (1) - Alberto CONTADOR
> ...



Ah July. The tribbles are breeding again.


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## bmxhacksaw (Mar 26, 2008)

Macilvennon said:


> Armstrong will not finish in the Top 5 of this years TDF.[/B]


Whuchyu been smokin' son?


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Ah July. The tribbles are breeding again.


You mean these?
View attachment 171322


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## ping771 (Apr 10, 2006)

Macilvennon said:


> *Armstrong will not finish in the Top 5 of this years TDF.*
> 
> *My Top 5 for GC:*
> (1) - Alberto CONTADOR
> ...



These are your expectations or your educated guesses? Wiggins will fade in the 3rd week and Kloden too will not make it to podium. I still think that Lance will podium though.


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## cammccarty (Jul 21, 2008)

My predictions for the podium

1. Alberto
2. A. Schleck
3. Lance

THen Lance will punch Alberto in the face for taking his spotlight.


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## svrider (Jan 14, 2009)

For me, as far as Lance is concerned, the jury is still out. It think top 10 for sure. Above that I'll have to reserve judgement until I see him actually put out an effort. He hasn't had to yet. 

I could see him dropping a few spots.


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## karatemom (Mar 21, 2008)

I think Lance will definitely podium. Evans will finish fourth at best. Contador will win. Hmmm...I can't decide about positions 2 and 4---maybe A. Schleck. Maybe Leipheimer. 
I'll say Nibali for 5th, just because there's usually someone no one is expecting. Besides, I like the Liquigas bikes.


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## Rot Weiss Essen (Nov 10, 2008)

If Wiggans finishes in second at the TDF that would be the biggest suprise of the season IMO ! Sorry, I just don't see that happening with Ventoux and the alps still coming.


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## Rot Weiss Essen (Nov 10, 2008)

ANd how in the hell is Evans in a better position to finish in the top five than Lance is? Explain that one to me?


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

I'm beginning to believe Armstrong is going to surprise us all.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

jd3 said:


> I'm beginning to believe Armstrong is going to surprise us all.



Count me out amongst those in the "surprised" group.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

MG537 said:


> You mean these?
> View attachment 171322


   

Cute little buggers, aren't they?


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## Argentius (Aug 26, 2004)

*No way.*

not at all.

Is this just a troll or a hope?

Kloden and Leipheimer are strong riders, but will be working, not winning.

Evans -- where exactly is he going to make up 3:00+ on Lance? You really think he'll drop him?

No way.


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## IAmCosmo (Jul 26, 2005)

http://www.thinkgeek.com/geektoys/plush/ac6e/


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Argentius said:


> not at all.
> 
> Is this just a troll or a hope?
> 
> ...



And here I thought you might post something funny. Just had to go being serious again, did you?


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## Argentius (Aug 26, 2004)

Why so serious?


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## iamnotfilip (Jul 9, 2007)

Lance pretty much has to bonk on Ventoux or the TT not to finish on the podium. And I don't see him doing anything that stupid.

Pretty amazing achievement, considering his age and lack of pro racing in the last few years. Even Contador winning the whole thing is not as amazing. The only one who can outshine him is Wiggins if he manages to stay with the boys on all the mountains, but somehow I doubt this.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Argentius said:


> Why so serious?



Just messing with the tribbles today...

Oh wait. These might be a bit before your time.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Count me out amongst those in the "surprised" group.


I'm surprised he's been as strong as he has.

I'll be more surprised if he can carry his fitness to Paris and end up on the Podium.

I'll be shocked if he wins

Len


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

iamnotfilip said:


> Lance pretty much has to bonk on Ventoux or the TT not to finish on the podium. And I don't see him doing anything that stupid.
> 
> Pretty amazing achievement, considering his age and lack of pro racing in the last few years. Even Contador winning the whole thing is not as amazing. The only one who can outshine him is Wiggins if he manages to stay with the boys on all the mountains, but somehow I doubt this.


Nope.

He could lose time in both stage 15 & Ventoux as well as in the ITT IF he is not as strong in the third week as he historically has been. Remember, the biggest challange of aging is recovery after hard efforts....If his 37 YO legs conspire against him, it will be in the third week.

He only has to lose a few minutes in total to leipheimer , Kloden, Martin Wiggins, Vande Velde or Andy Scheck....any 2 of them could do that easily if he tires at all.

Not saying it will happen, only that it's not a low probability event.

Len


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Len J said:


> I'm surprised he's been as strong as he has.
> 
> I'll be more surprised if he can carry his fitness to Paris and end up on the Podium.
> 
> ...



The Giro ended up being a training race for him. Then it was off to train at altitudes 10,000 feet or better. To me it appears he's peaking during the race, which is what I was hoping for.

Looking forward to that apres Tour chit chat with you.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> The Giro ended up being a training race for him. Then it was off to train at altitudes 10,000 feet or better. To me it appears he's peaking during the race, which is what I was hoping for.
> 
> Looking forward to that apres Tour chit chat with you.


He certainly seems in good form....it's a long race.

I've been known to be wrong......

Len


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## Argentius (Aug 26, 2004)

Aw, I know about the trouble with tribbles.

I think the rabbits on the trail for my commute are actually they.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Macilvennon said:


> *Armstrong will not finish in the Top 5 of this years TDF.*
> 
> *My Top 5 for GC:*
> (1) - Alberto CONTADOR
> ...



I'll bet you whatever dope you're smoking. 

BTW, did you notice that Wiggins was gapped, lost 15 seconds and slipped down to 7th on GC today?


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## ClassicSteel71 (Mar 5, 2009)

cammccarty said:


> My predictions for the podium
> 
> 1. Alberto
> 2. A. Schleck
> ...


Then Hinault will have to pull LA off AC before he ends him. I knew this was gonna be the best tour in years.


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## waldo425 (Sep 22, 2008)

I think it's too early to call but I think Lance is riding strong and well. I don't know if he can do it but I'm rooting for him to land in the top 5 -10.


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## cpark (Oct 13, 2004)

Macilvennon said:


> *Armstrong will not finish in the Top 5 of this years TDF.*
> 
> *My Top 5 for GC:*
> (1) - Alberto CONTADOR
> ...


I think he will.
Two riders who I don't think will finish in top 5 are Wiggins and Levi.

Wiggins - need to lose another 5kg and he will be a serious contender.
Levi - doesn't pay attention as much as he should. Like today he lost valueable 15 seconds.....


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

rocco said:


> I'll bet you whatever dope you're smoking.
> 
> BTW, did you notice that Wiggins was gapped, lost 15 seconds and slipped down to 7th on GC today?


A bunch of people got gapped....and a bunch of high GC people were close to getting gapped.

40. Alberto Contador (ESP/AST) 0:00.

41. Andreas Kloden (GER/AST) 0:00.

42. Egoi Martinez (ESP/EUS) 0:00.

43. Peter Velits (SVK/MRM) 0:00.

44. Brice Feillu (FRA/AGR) 0:00.

45. Yaroslav Popovych (UKR/AST) 0:00.

46. Lance Armstrong (USA/AST) 0:00.

47. Luis Leon Sanchez (ESP/GCE) 0:00.

48. Carlos Sastre (ESP/CTT) 0:00.

49. Anthony Geslin (FRA/FDJ) 0:00.

50. Rui Costa (POR/GCE) 0:00.

51. Koen de Kort (NED/SKS) 0:00.

52. Mickael Delage (FRA/SIL) 0:00.

53. Simon Spilak (SLO/LAM) 0:15.

54. Stijn Vandenbergh (BEL/KAT) 0:15.

55. St�phane Auge (FRA/COF) 0:15.

56. Julian Dean (NZL/GRM) 0:15.

57. Alexandre Pichot (FRA/BBO) 0:15.

58. Fabian Cancellara (SWI/SAX) 0:15.

59. Cyril Lemoine (FRA/SKS) 0:15.

60. Johannes Fr�hlinger (GER/MRM) 0:15.

61. Vladimir Efimkin (RUS/ALM) 0:15.

62. Jeremy Roy (FRA/FDJ) 0:15.

63. Kim Kirchen (LUX/THR) 0:15.

64. Bradley Wiggins (GBR/GRM) 0:15.

65. Grischa Niermann (GER/RAB) 0:15.

66. Bingen Fernandez (ESP/COF) 0:15.

67. Vladimir Karpets (RUS/KAT) 0:15.

68. Mikel Astarloza (ESP/EUS) 0:15.

69. Sylvain Chavanel (FRA/QST) 0:15.

70. Heinrich Haussler (GER/CTT) 0:15.

71. Haimar Zubeldia (ESP/AST) 0:15.

72. Alexander Botcharov (RUS/KAT) 0:15.

73. Volodomir Gustov (UKR/CTT) 0:15.

74. Maxime Monfort (BEL/THR) 0:15.

75. Joost Posthuma (NED/RAB) 0:15.

76. Nicki S�rensen (DEN/SAX) 0:15.

77. Levi Leipheimer (USA/AST) 0:15.

Len


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

15 seconds wont mean squat when Levi gets dropped in the alps


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Wiggins and Leipheimer are the guys who started the day in the top 10 on GC that actually lost time (15 seconds) and position. Wiggins from 5th to 7th and Leipheimer from 4th to 5th. That doesn't bode very well for Macilvennon's prediction but we'll see... Macilvennon says he or she will bet on it but I haven't noticed anything specific about how much.


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## teoteoteo (Sep 8, 2002)

Len J said:


> Nope.
> 
> He could lose time in both stage 15 & Ventoux as well as in the ITT IF he is not as strong in the third week as he historically has been. Remember, the biggest challange of aging is recovery after hard efforts....If his 37 YO legs conspire against him, it will be in the third week.
> 
> ...



But I think he knows when he needs to be strongest for the Tour this year and targeted the last bit. There is a reason he has alluded to the last week in a few interviews, he even did coming out of the bus the morning after AC picked up time on Arcalis. His lead in this year was unique and he was a bit behind because of the collarbone. He didn't get weaker as the Giro went on, he got stronger....


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## Macilvennon (Jun 22, 2009)

I can't believe that Wiggins and Leipheimer lost 15 seconds today. I would put this down to carelessness more than their inability to stay with the leaders.

As for my prediction at the start of the post, I think that Armstrong will totally crack on either stage 17 or 20 (with stage 20 to Mont Ventoux being more likely). I really do like Armstrong, but the lack of respect he has shown to Contador has left a stale taste in my mouth.

I think that Wiggins will come very close to winning the TDF. His Time Trailing ability coupled with his new found climbing skills will put him very close to Contador in Paris !

I think that Leipheimer, Kloden and Evans will be best of the rest even though Leipheimer and Kloden will have their domestique duties looking after Contador and Armstrong.


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## grrrah (Jul 22, 2005)

1. Contador
2. A. Schleck
3. Sastre
4. LA
5. Cadel

I think LA and Cadel can't hang with the top 3 during one of the big attacks, but both can hang during the rest/most of the race.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Macilvennon said:


> I really do like Armstrong, but the lack of respect he has shown to Contador has left a stale taste in my mouth.



How's that... examples?


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## loudog (Jul 22, 2008)

armstrong needs only to keep up with conty then outshine him in the ITT. he will be 1st or second.


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## Macilvennon (Jun 22, 2009)

rocco said:


> How's that... examples?


Before the race started Armstrong and the Astana team stated that Contador was the team leader. I recall after a stage 3 or 4 days ago Armstrong stating that there were multiple leaders in the team (i.e - Armstrong, Contador, Kloden and Leipheimer).

When Armstrong took 30-40 seconds out of Contador on stage 3 and overtook him on GC by about 20 seconds he stated that Astana should give him their full backing......implying that Contador should play second fiddle?

Armstrong has been playing mind games with Contador since the tour began, and to be honest I think Contador is saying very little cause he knows that he will destroy Armstrong in the Time Trial and Mont Ventoux stages!


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## karatemom (Mar 21, 2008)

Len J said:


> Nope.
> 
> Remember, the biggest challange of aging is recovery after hard efforts....If his 37 YO legs conspire against him, it will be in the third week.
> 
> ...


Who is Martin Wiggins?

Anyway, that part about recovery after hard efforts when your're older is true. But, still...he is Lance Armstrong. Even his name makes him sound like a knight.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

karatemom said:


> Who is Martin Wiggins?



Good grief... he omitted a comma between names, isn't that obvious?


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Argentius said:


> not at all.
> 
> Is this just a troll or a hope?
> 
> ...


I don't know. There's probably not another person in cycling that is as good at getting himself on the podium while helping somebody else as Leipheimer. In various places, he and Contador have stood on a lot of podiums together while on the same team.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

teoteoteo said:


> But I think he knows when he needs to be strongest for the Tour this year and targeted the last bit. There is a reason he has alluded to the last week in a few interviews, he even did coming out of the bus the morning after AC picked up time on Arcalis. His lead in this year was unique and he was a bit behind because of the collarbone. He didn't get weaker as the Giro went on, he got stronger....


Which is why I said we just don't know.

He could, but he might not.

Len


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## saird (Aug 19, 2008)

cpark said:


> Wiggins - need to lose another 5kg and he will be a serious contender.


If he lost 5kg he'd float away into the clouds on the first gentle breeze.


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## Peanya (Jun 12, 2008)

jd3 said:


> I'm beginning to believe Armstrong is going to surprise us all.


I'm thinking this too. He's doing what he can to stay where he is, and probably knows the intricacies of the race better than anyone. I was expecting him to go for the yellow for a little bit though.
EDIT: I'd be surprised if he falls back. As for me, I'm rooting for him.


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## yater (Nov 30, 2006)

Macilvennon said:


> Armstrong has been playing mind games with Contador since the tour began, and to be honest I think Contador is saying very little cause he knows that he will destroy Armstrong in the Time Trial and Mont Ventoux stages!


I'm a LA fan. I've raced him here in Tx and like the guy. I want him to win but AC looks STRONG and is sitting in right now. I think he will try to destroy everyone when they hit the alps. I hope LA can counter but either way, I can't wait to watch it.


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

Wiggins will lose 5+ minutes in the mountains.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Macilvennon said:


> When Armstrong took 30-40 seconds out of Contador on stage 3 and overtook him on GC by about 20 seconds he stated that Astana should give him their full backing......implying that Contador should play second fiddle?


Got a link to a quote of him saying that?

If you're going to make bets on who's going do what on GC based your personal biases about which cyclist's personalities you like or dislike the most then you're almost bound to be disappointed. I'm still wondering what you're willing to bet... I'm sure there must be at least one person here who would be happy to take some of your money.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

iliveonnitro said:


> Wiggins will lose 5+ minutes in the mountains.



Highly likely.


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## Travis (Oct 14, 2005)

grrrah said:


> 1. Contador
> 2. A. Schleck
> 3. Sastre
> 4. LA
> ...


that looks pretty good, I am fan boy enough to swap Sastre and LA though!


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## cruso414 (Feb 20, 2004)

if it were a race on who could throw there bike from side to side and not go anywhere, Cadel would be in yellow. Wiggins beating LA in the mountains.......NOT. Sastre is a joke, he won't even sniff the podium. I am still leaning towards an Astana podium sweep, The whole peleton appears to be playing nice until the Alps.


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## philippec (Jun 16, 2002)

loudog said:


> armstrong needs only to keep up with conty then outshine him in the ITT. he will be 1st or second.


my money is on LA being unable to do either....


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## Rot Weiss Essen (Nov 10, 2008)

Just where is Evans all of a sudden going to make up the three minutes he is down to get on the podium? Not in the ITT and not in the Alps because Astana will pull back every effort or attack he makes. It just isn't going to happen for Evans this TDF and his team isn't strong enough to help him overcome what he is already down! End of story!

I totally expect Astana to dominate in the Alps, there might be a handful that hang with them for awhile, but by the time they do Mt. Ventoux Astana will shred everyone and will leave Lance and Alberto to decide.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*prediction half-way into the race? bold.*

I am going to wait until the day before the final stage before I make any predictions.

Actually, there is a predictions thread already, for those bold or foolish enough to venture a prediction before start time -- before any of the degrees of freedom were eaten up.

http://forums.roadbikereview.com/showthread.php?t=145545


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## BuenosAires (Apr 3, 2004)

It's funny to me that people continue to understimate Lance Armstrong. He knows better than anyone how to prepare for and win the Tour. I won't be surprised if he wins again. So what are we betting?


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## nOOky (Mar 20, 2009)

As much as I'd like to see LA take it all, I see him in second place on the podium. Being an old man myself, I know that exuberance and experience only take you so far. I think AC is going to take off up mountain, and LA won't be able to match the pace, thereby losing just enough time to lose his time gap over Contador. I can see Andy Schleck in third, 4th and 5th who cares


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