# RONDE Predictions!



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

Start list is here.

It is hard to argue against Boonen's form this year. Is it the team? The Bike? The pot belge? Well, we don't want this to get moved, so let's leave that there. But this is a Belgian's race to lose.

Chavanel, Gilbert, Ballan, Bossen Hagen, Flecha, Devolder, Cancellara...we could go on and on. There are riders to watch, and riders being watched., but one thing is certain: the winner will be in agony and ecstasy.


Part of me hopes the change in the course is all one big Poisson d'Avril. The other part is a bit more rooted to the earth. This race, along with Paris-Roubaix, could be decided by weather. 


"Looking back, you get a bit nostalgic, but from a competitive point of view, Flanders was one of the most horrible races to ride but one of the greatest races to win." - Sean Kelly​


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Tough to bet against Boonen, but I think Cancellara is also in great form (if he can learn that just riding people off his wheel won't work.) Other than them, Chavanel is on form as well, but may end up working for Tommke.

For a dark horse win, I'm going to go with Sagan. The kid is unreal.


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## T0mi (Mar 2, 2011)

Breschel


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## RkFast (Dec 11, 2004)

One thing is for sure. No matter what happens, Cancellara will say something off putting after the race.


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

robdamanii said:


> Tough to bet against Boonen ...
> 
> For a dark horse win, I'm going to go with Sagan. The kid is unreal.





T0mi said:


> Breschel


Top 3 from G-W is a safe bet.

I know Cancellara wants to factor in the classics but I'm not liking his chances here.

BMC has to be disappointed with their Spring season. Maybe use Thor and Gilbert as decoys to spring Van Avermaet?

Personally I like OP-QS for the win. Chavanel or Bonen. Picking Chavanel FTW.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Chavanel.


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## EDUC8-or (Jan 2, 2009)

Peter Sagan


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Boonen.

I think FC has great form but unless he comes up withe a different tactic and a team all he will do its make selections of QuickStep to profit from. I think BMC will end up withe nothing as their two stars are sick or out of form or whatever. The other danger team to watch will be Garmin IMO lots of solid riders no superstars but they will be looking to make the race.


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## bnoojin (Mar 24, 2002)

5 star favorites are Boonen and Cancellara but they may be neutralized by others watching them and each other...

I want to say Boss Hogg, but I'll have to go with the ultra-aggressive and fast upstart-
Sagan.


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## Sylint (Jul 27, 2009)

Sep Vanmarcke.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Sagan sure has class, hard not to like him. I don't dare make a guess at the Ronde.


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## barteau (Oct 10, 2011)

Boonen :thumbsup:


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

Baden Cooke, outsider strong team around him. maybe Lieuwe Westra
But there will be some competion from Silvan, Big Tom and FC


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

Tomekke or Peter Sagan

Cancellara will attack, push real hard, then get caught and beat on the line.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Boonen, Cancellara, Chavanel, Sagan... oooff... who knows? 

Cancellara is a beast but Boonen is back to being very good again and I think he's a smarter racer than Cancellara. I've got no strong feeling that I would place a bet on. It's going to be one hell of an interesting race to see though.

Did anyone else notice from the photos of the teams doing their course recon that everyone was riding deep carbon wheels? I didn't see any of them riding on traditional alloy box section rims. I know the Ronde pave is much kinder than the Roubaix pave but nonetheless I don't recall ever seeing that before


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Boonen, Cancellara, Chavanel, Sagan... oooff... who knows?
> 
> Cancellara is a beast but Boonen is back to being very good again and I think he's a smarter racer than Cancellara. I've got no strong feeling that I would place a bet on. It's going to be one hell of an interesting race to see though.
> 
> Did anyone else notice from the photos of the teams doing their course recon that everyone was riding deep carbon wheels? I didn't see any of them riding on traditional alloy box section rims. I know the Ronde pave is much kinder than the Roubaix pave but nonetheless I don't recall ever seeing that before


My guess is the techs are still glueing up the alloy rims.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Boonen, Cancellara, Chavanel, Sagan... oooff... who knows?
> 
> Cancellara is a beast but Boonen is back to being very good again and I think he's a smarter racer than Cancellara. I've got no strong feeling that I would place a bet on. It's going to be one hell of an interesting race to see though.
> 
> Did anyone else notice from the photos of the teams doing their course recon that everyone was riding deep carbon wheels? I didn't see any of them riding on traditional alloy box section rims. I know the Ronde pave is much kinder than the Roubaix pave but nonetheless I don't recall ever seeing that before


It's worth noting that the last time FC won this thing, he rode a great Boonen off of his wheel. This race is selective so If FC goes, it'll likely blow the race apart. Last years race was not the usual outcome (small group with peloton chasing).

As for the wheels, I fully expect that they'll all ride carbon/aero wheels. Their strength is proven now (FC rode Bontragers lightest wheelset at Roubaix last year). There's no good reason not to trust them. The most current models (Zipp, Bontrager) are also much wider and work better with the 27-28mm tires they like to ride @ Roubaix.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

My heart says Sagan, my head says Boonen... but I'm really not sure. I can see Chavanel attacking and Boonen and everybody else sitting on Cancellara's wheel. He would either stop pulling and let Chavanel win or work like a horse then get beaten at the end by Boonen or Sagan...


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

foto said:


> My guess is the techs are still glueing up the alloy rims.


That makes some sense.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

davidka said:


> It's worth noting that the last time FC won this thing, he rode a great Boonen off of his wheel. This race is selective so If FC goes, it'll likely blow the race apart. Last years race was not the usual outcome (small group with peloton chasing).
> 
> As for the wheels, I fully expect that they'll all ride carbon/aero wheels. Their strength is proven now (FC rode Bontragers lightest wheelset at Roubaix last year). There's no good reason not to trust them. The most current models (Zipp, Bontrager) are also much wider and work better with the 27-28mm tires they like to ride @ Roubaix.


The way I see it FC isn't quite as strong as he was in 2010 and Boonen is in much better form compared to then. Boonen is the smarter racer... he seems even more so now. 

With the course change and how well Sagan and Chavanel are going now I say who knows?

About the wheels... I wasn't thinking in terms of the reliability of carbon wheels. I've had deep carbon wheels in years past that were very robust. 

What I think it's about with deep carbon vs box section alloy is better brake performance in sketchy conditions and maybe a tiny bit less risk of pinching a tub on a bad stone. I agree that the wider tire beds on newer carbon rims are likely beneficial.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

TerminatorX91 said:


> The way I see it FC isn't quite as strong as he was in 2010 and Boonen is in much better form compared to then. Boonen is the smarter racer... he seems even more so now.
> 
> With the course change and how well Sagan and Chavanel are going now I say who knows?
> 
> ...


Neuyans (sp? I will never get this language) could hang last year, Gerrans could hang this year, maybe FC isn't quite as sharp as in the past?


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

weltyed said:


> Chavanel, Gilbert, Ballan, Bossen Hagen, Flecha, Devolder, Cancellara...


Chavanel or Boonen, for sure. Both on great form and psyched up for it.
Gilbert just isn't riding well, for whatever reason.Sick, tired, unmotivated?
Ballan, way past his best-before date! Not a chance.
Boassen-Hagen, classy and talented but not a "hardman" of the sort that wins Belgian classics.
Flecha, tough and talented but tactically inept. Will do well but won't win.
Devolder, maybe?
Cancellara-he's in great form but he's not using his head. Reminds of the saying "bull in a china shop".


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Dan Gerous said:


> My heart says Sagan, my head says Boonen... but I'm really not sure. I can see Chavanel attacking and Boonen and everybody else sitting on Cancellara's wheel. He would either stop pulling and let Chavanel win or work like a horse then get beaten at the end by Boonen or Sagan...


This could be Paris Roubaix as well. Boonen and Chavanel are both on top form and could tag team Cancellara. What team support will Cancellara have?


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

Look at the teams! OMQS and Sky are stacked. You could say the same about BMC if Phillipe or Thor had anything resembling form. Cancellara was very impressive in 2010, but his team did the lions share of the work for the first 125km. Radioshak isn't going to be able to do that for him this year.

I'm going with Chavanel.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Cinelli 82220 said:


> This could be Paris Roubaix as well. Boonen and Chavanel are both on top form and could tag team Cancellara. What team support will Cancellara have?


Yeah Cancellara will be on his own, his team is built to get Andy on the second step of the Tour.

As for Flecha, I thought he got sick or hurt and that he's not back into form yet, if it's the case, he wont be there, he struggles to follow Boonen and Cancellara even when he's at his best.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Cinelli 82220 said:


> Cancellara-he's in great form but he's not using his head. Reminds of the saying "bull in a china shop".


I'm always surprised to see this kind of comment, as though pulling to the finish at MSR was the wrong move. His game is attack, drop everyone and finish alone. When he doesn't win this way, he still gets top-3. He knows exactly what he's doing, so does his competition, yet very few can do anything about it. Nobody wins every time.


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## Alaska Mike (Sep 28, 2008)

Boonen or Cancellara. People forget he attacked Boonen at Paris-Roubaix when Boonen wasn't looking, so he's not completely tactically inept. If he can get a gap, he can ride away on the cobbles. Thing is, a lot of people know it and will be watching every move he makes. He needs a strong teammate at the end to block and create that gap, and he's gone.

Boonen is in great shape, so this should be interesting.

All that said, one badly-timed flat in the last part of the race and they can pack it in. A lot of teams are going to be gunning for the win, so I expect there will be more than a few "favorites" there in the end.


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## Undecided (Apr 2, 2007)

davidka said:


> I'm always surprised to see this kind of comment, as though pulling to the finish at MSR was the wrong move. His game is attack, drop everyone and finish alone. When he doesn't win this way, he still gets top-3. He knows exactly what he's doing, so does his competition, yet very few can do anything about it. Nobody wins every time.


Agreed; he knows his strengths and weaknesses and he races to suit them. If he leaves it to the line with sprinters in the group, he knows he doesn't win. What do people want him to do?


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

I won’t pick one above Cancellera. He gets his next Ronde. 

Love to see Chavanel get this one.

Love, love to see Boonen get a third.

Love, love, love to see Gilbert get a third unique monument.


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## captain stubbing (Mar 30, 2011)

Cancellara is a beast but Boonen is back to being very good again and I think he's a smarter racer than Cancellara. 

smarter....really?!

E3-Prijs Harelbeke 2010 - Final kilometers - YouTube

Paris-Roubaix 2010 - Cancellara attacks - YouTube

Fabian Cancellara attack on Tour of Flanders 2010 - YouTube

anyway, agreed between Tom and FC.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Salsa_Lover said:


> Tomekke or Peter Sagan
> 
> Cancellara will attack, push real hard, then get caught and beat on the line.


ditto. agree 100%.


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## bnoojin (Mar 24, 2002)

Dan Gerous said:


> Yeah Cancellara will be on his own, his team is built to get Andy on the second step of the Tour.


haha. but Johan has surely got Andy on a TT program, with a new-fangled praying mantis position and as yet to be revealed top-secret Trek TT bike. They probably took away Andy's car and he's forced to fetch his cappucinos on a 55/12 fixie.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Cancellara is a beast but Boonen is back to being very good again and I think he's a smarter racer than Cancellara.


I remember the race that Boonen lost to Cancellara because he dropped so far back in the pack that he was unable to close the gap when Cancellara put in his attack. Boonen received plenty of criticism for that mental error.

Boonen's sprint gives him a chance to win even when he's closely marked. Not so much for Cancellara. If Cancellara's tactics haven't been as successful lately, I don't think it's because he's not a smart racer, but because getting away by himself, which is about the only way he can win, is more difficult now than it was for him a few years ago because he's more closely marked and because everyone's afraid to work with him in a small group.

Remembering how he rode Boonen off his wheel a few years ago, I'm going to pick Cancellara anyway. But really, after his ride in the Ronde last year, I want to see Chavanel win.


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## Fignon's Barber (Mar 2, 2004)

3 predictions:

1. if its a breakaway winner: chavenel
2. if not breakaway: oscar friere
3. vanavermaet will be highest placed BMC rider


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## karlobike (Jul 3, 2007)

Do not forget that this year has changed the final path, then ....
Sagan.


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## orange_julius (Jan 24, 2003)

Fignon's Barber said:


> 3 predictions:
> 
> 1. if its a breakaway winner: chavenel
> 2. if not breakaway: oscar friere
> 3. vanavermaet will be highest placed BMC rider


Good predictions! It's hard to discount Freire, his return to form this season has been amazing. 

Lots of people cite Sagan as a favorite. Somehow I think the new route, which suggests more of an attrition race, is not a good fit for him. Plus, Boonen may have a point that he needs a mentor.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

orange_julius said:


> Good predictions! It's hard to discount Freire, his return to form this season has been amazing.
> 
> Lots of people cite Sagan as a favorite. Somehow I think the new route, which suggests more of an attrition race, is not a good fit for him. Plus, Boonen may have a point that he needs a mentor.


he's only, like, 14. Sagan has a lot of time to grow.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

harlond said:


> *I remember the race that Boonen lost to Cancellara because he dropped so far back in the pack that he was unable to close the gap when Cancellara put in his attack. Boonen received plenty of criticism for that mental error.*
> 
> Boonen's sprint gives him a chance to win even when he's closely marked. Not so much for Cancellara. If Cancellara's tactics haven't been as successful lately, I don't think it's because he's not a smart racer, but because getting away by himself, which is about the only way he can win, is more difficult now than it was for him a few years ago because he's more closely marked and because everyone's afraid to work with him in a small group.
> 
> Remembering how he rode Boonen off his wheel a few years ago, I'm going to pick Cancellara anyway. But really, after his ride in the Ronde last year, I want to see Chavanel win.


That was in Paris-Roubaix and I never said Boonen was infallible. 

Cancellara road Boonen off his wheel in the 2010 Ronde because he was having one of the best days of racing career while Boonen wasn't 100%. 

Cancellara trying make an attack on the Kemmelberg, 25km from the finish in Wevelgem wasn't a smart move. Boonen has been economical with energy lately wheres Cancellara always relies on brute strength to ride away from everyone even where its practically imposible and he's got two guys on his wheel that he can't drop. His physical gift works spectacularly sometimes but I don't believe he's as tactically smart as Boonen. 

Also, the more I think about this race the more I'm liking Chavanel's chances.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

captain stubbing said:


> Cancellara is a beast but Boonen is back to being very good again and I think he's a smarter racer than Cancellara.
> 
> smarter....really?!
> 
> ...



In 2010 Cancellara was on what will likely be the form of his life and Boonen wasn't healthy.

Match Cancellara and Boonen when their both healthy and on top form and I say you'll find Boonen to be the smarter racer.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Salsa_Lover said:


> Tomekke or Peter Sagan
> 
> Cancellara will attack, push real hard, then get caught and beat on the line.



Totally plausible. 

On the other hand, TB, FC and PS could end up marking each other all day and Chavanel takes the win.

I think of others who could deliver a surprise.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Fignon's Barber said:


> 3 predictions:
> 
> 1. if its a breakaway winner: chavenel
> 2. if not breakaway: oscar friere
> 3. vanavermaet will be highest placed BMC rider


It would be neat to see Friere going out with a Ronde win but I doubt it.


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## allison (Apr 19, 2006)

I think the favorites might shadow-box too much and there'll be a winner from a break or an attack that no one's looking at for the win.

Would be stoked on Boonen, Cancellera, Sagan...


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## Durt (Jul 28, 2008)

allison said:


> I think the favorites might shadow-box too much and there'll be a winner from a break or an attack that no one's looking at for the win.


^This. 
Devolder? Goss?


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## austincrx (Oct 22, 2008)

90% to Tornado Tom, 10% to Sagan (after he follows spartacus and sprints arond him in the finish).


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## Kneedragon (Jul 27, 2010)

Cancellara.

Dark horse picks: Pozzato or Devolder.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Terpstra has a place in this discussion.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

To me, Fabian is too overconfident. Yes he's strong, more than most, if anyone... but he races as if he thinks he is sooo much stronger than the others that he thinks he can drop everyone, everytime... Which is not always the case. Then he complains that the others just stay on his wheel. When you have a locomotive pulling you to the line, away from the rest, not being a wheelsucker would be stupid.

If Fabian wants to win, he has to be smarter about when/where he attacks. In the 2010 Ronde, he attacked at the right moment and quickly had a huge gap... but lately, he just goes but not always at times and places that can get him a gap that will stick, he needs a gap, not accelerate and pull the strongest others along. And in 2010, he had a strong team working for him for a long time. Bennati? Dopopo? On such a course? Those are no O'Grady! His comments that QuickStep have the responsibility in the race shows he knows this, he hopes he can just follow Boonen and his team until the finale... But if Boonen, Chavanel and Terpstra are still there at the end, they can just tag team him to wear him down...

Didn't notice Freire was racing? Not sure the course is good for him though...

Rabobank has Lars Boom and Matti Breschel, if Boom doesn't try to push Boonen out of his line, they could be a dangerous duo.

Oh and I predict some Euskaltel riders will crash... 

Should be an interesting race that's for sure.


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## slimjw (Jul 30, 2008)

Undecided said:


> Agreed; he knows his strengths and weaknesses and he races to suit them. If he leaves it to the line with sprinters in the group, he knows he doesn't win. What do people want him to do?


I agree with this as well. The guy is arguably the best TT'er of his generation and he uses that massive engine along with great bike-handling skills to ride everyone off his wheel and win alone. If it comes down to a sprint he knows he will be outgunned by the likes of Boonen, who is certainly a more "complete" classics rider. 

That said, I do think some criticism is fair when it comes to the timing of some of his attacks. At times he appears overconfident in his ability to hold off the world and goes too soon or at the wrong place. Last year I think he was suffering a bit of hubris after his domination the year before. This year remains to be seen. 

Tough to predict this year but Boonen looks in better form than he has for a couple years and is certainly motivated but will have his work cut out for him against Canc and his own teammate, Chavanel, who is also looking very mighty right about now.


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Not much is being said about BMC, which is fielding a very strong team. Going out on a limb, I'll say Thor for the win!

*BMC Racing Team Roster:
*Alessandro Ballan (ITA)
Marcus Burghardt (GER)
Philippe Gilbert (BEL)
George Hincapie (USA)
Thor Hushovd (NOR)
Manuel Quinziato (ITA)
Michael Schär (SUI)
Greg Van Avermaet (BEL)


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

TerminatorX91 said:


> That was in Paris-Roubaix and I never said Boonen was infallible.
> 
> Cancellara road Boonen off his wheel in the 2010 Ronde because he was having one of the best days of racing career while Boonen wasn't 100%.
> 
> ...


Remember too that during the Ronde/Roubaix double he had Riis in his ear directing him. Who'd he have last year (I'm not sure, but I know it wasn't Riis.) 

That may help this year as well.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

JSR said:


> Not much is being said about BMC, which is fielding a very strong team. Going out on a limb, I'll say Thor for the win!
> 
> *BMC Racing Team Roster:
> *Alessandro Ballan (ITA)
> ...


That's because the BMC riders are either not in shape (Gilbert and Thor), injured (Van Avermaet and Quinziato) or past their prime (Ballan and Hincapie)... I'd be very suprised if a BMC rider does better than hit the top 10... maybe Thor, he's the kind of rider, like Freire, that can quickly go from off-form to quite strong but...


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

I don't think FC is doing it wrong per se, his main strenght is the TT where he can motor high pace for a sustained long time. So he uses that strenght to win.

He attacks on brute force and if noone can hold his wheel he will surely win. This is the plan A and has been successful many times

The problem is there is no plan B when this plan A fails. 

Usually teams organise their paved classics putting a man on the breakaway and keeping a good finisher in the bunch. If the breakaway fails, then they have another card to play on the bunch finish.

FC's current team doesn't play this card, and he doesn't know where to stop plan A. maybe because there is no plan B in his mind.

For example in Milano San Remo, when he realised he had 2 guys on his tail that he could not drop, and one is a good finisher, then he should realise that the game is over and fall back so his man on the bunch can have an option to win. But he doesn't do that and keeps going, virtually giving the win as a gift to that other guy. Well I think he thinks didn't lose anything in MSR , because had he left the bunch to catch them then most probably Sagan would have won. So the only plan B is keep going and hope he can beat the good finisher on the line, which in my mind is flawed because he is giving the advantage to the "wheelsucker" that would be fresher.


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## allison (Apr 19, 2006)

I dunno, Thor is looking pretty fit (hott). Is that a Honey Stinger in his hand?


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Salsa_Lover said:


> I don't think FC is doing it wrong per se, his main strenght is the TT where he can motor high pace for a sustained long time. So he uses that strenght to win.
> 
> He attacks on brute force and if noone can hold his wheel he will surely win. This is the plan A and has been successful many times
> 
> ...


Cancellara and Sagan on the same team could be a formidable duo in the spring classics.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Dan Gerous said:


> To me, Fabian is too overconfident. Yes he's strong, more than most, if anyone... but he races as if he thinks he is sooo much stronger than the others that he thinks he can drop everyone, everytime... Which is not always the case. Then he complains that the others just stay on his wheel. When you have a locomotive pulling you to the line, away from the rest, not being a wheelsucker would be stupid.
> 
> If Fabian wants to win, he has to be smarter about when/where he attacks. In the 2010 Ronde, he attacked at the right moment and quickly had a huge gap... but lately, he just goes but not always at times and places that can get him a gap that will stick, he needs a gap, not accelerate and pull the strongest others along. And in 2010, he had a strong team working for him for a long time. Bennati? Dopopo? On such a course? Those are no O'Grady! His comments that QuickStep have the responsibility in the race shows he knows this, he hopes he can just follow Boonen and his team until the finale... But if Boonen, Chavanel and Terpstra are still there at the end, they can just tag team him to wear him down...
> 
> ...


Yep...


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## captain stubbing (Mar 30, 2011)

*Tony Martin*

This guy has a big engine and can climb as well, so just wondering why he isn't a participant/contender in the early one day classics?


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## JackDaniels (Oct 4, 2011)

Salsa_Lover said:


> FC's current team doesn't play this card, and he doesn't know where to stop plan A. maybe because there is no plan B in his mind.


Yeah, I don't think when you are putting out the effort to ride away from the best bike riders in the world, after 5 or 6 hours, your mind is going through a lot of contingency options. But the other favorites were playing their cards as well by not going with him and thinking the break would fail.

If Boonen thinks FC is 1-2% stronger, then he should be able to at least hold his wheel.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

captain stubbing said:


> This guy has a big engine and can climb as well, so just wondering why he isn't a participant/contender in the early one day classics?


I was also wondering about Tony Martin, not specifically for De Ronde but... I think I saw him being very sub-par à la Philippe Gilbert early in the season but haven't seen him since. Injured? Sick? His zombification is finally complete?


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

TerminatorX91 said:


> That was in Paris-Roubaix and I never said Boonen was infallible.
> 
> Cancellara road Boonen off his wheel in the 2010 Ronde because he was having one of the best days of racing career while Boonen wasn't 100%.
> 
> Cancellara trying make an attack on the Kemmelberg, 25km from the finish in Wevelgem wasn't a smart move. Boonen has been economical with energy lately wheres Cancellara always relies on brute strength to ride away from everyone even where its practically imposible and he's got two guys on his wheel that he can't drop. His physical gift works spectacularly sometimes but I don't believe he's as tactically smart as Boonen.


When either man is in top form they both race boldly, I think I've seen more of this from Boonen than Cancellara. Boonen has attacked and isolated himself numerous times when he had 3-4 team mates with him. When they feel good (and sense the others don't), they go.

FC can do it again. The new finish is an unknown. If FC doesn't make his signature move stick, Boonen wins the sprint. Sagan is great but I'd be surprised if he's got race winning kick after a race this hard. There's not much sitting in once De Ronde heats up so only the strongest have a chance in the end. I thought the same thing about Cav before he roasted everyone at MSR in 2009 though...


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

this thread needs more video.


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## pianopiano (Jun 4, 2005)

*surprise winner*

Sylvain Chavanel


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)




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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

piano said:


> Sylvain Chavanel



I wouldn't be surprised.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Great race.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I'm really liking Chavanel for this one. Boonen is my second pick.

I don't think that Cancellara has lost any strength or form lately; i just think that the peloton is on to him. In the past, riders would let him go, turn up the gas, and start an impossible chase. I think that now, whereas in the past riders would be afraid to burn a match too early, they have realized that it is to their advantage to go ahead and essentially do an all-out sprint to catch him when he goes. I think that unless he catches his rivals not paying attention, it will be very hard for him to continue delivering those brutal wins in the future when racing against the big guns. 

I haven't counted him out though and still consider him a favorite.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Salsa_Lover said:


> I don't think FC is doing it wrong per se


What I wrote didn't come out right...he is doing what worked in the past. At Milan-San Remo he simply did it at the wrong time. If he had jumped when a couple of lesser riders were on his wheel he could have gapped them and rode away to win. But Gerrans and Nibali were too good to drop.

Maybe he is still frustrated from last year's Spring campaign, and his anger overrides his logic. He was definitely the stronger rider there. He needs a team that can deliver him fresh to a point near the finish where he can jump away cleanly.


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

Salsa_Lover said:


> I don't think FC is doing it wrong per se, his main strenght is the TT where he can motor high pace for a sustained long time. So he uses that strenght to win.
> 
> He attacks on brute force and if noone can hold his wheel he will surely win. This is the plan A and has been successful many times
> 
> ...


All good points. I hope he doesn't come up with a Plan B, though because Plan A is so damn exciting to watch, even when it fails spectacularly. It can certainly not be said that FC leaves anything out on the road.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

“I lost by trying to win, the others rode only to make me lose”


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## scottmilk9 (Jul 31, 2006)

Im going with a dark horse, "Sagan"!


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## Icculus (Mar 14, 2007)

Big George!


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Icculus said:


> Big George!



Have you ever seen George up close in real life?


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## hawker12 (Oct 19, 2003)

Icculus said:


> Big George!


Naw..he's saving himself for Roubaix.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

I would love to see Lars Boom win just so I could say, "Here comes the BOOM!"

I don't know how much the teams have prepped on the new course. My guess is a lot. If Fabian can pick the right place AND TIME to ride away SOLO, he will win. But I don't think that will happen this go-around. Teams have shown the way to beat to him: never let a gap form and make him lead. Fabian will always work to pull the riders away from the Group because he can't win in a field sprint. Well, not a true field sprint. We have seen him hit the gas with 1k to go and take the victory. Even with his trick new bike I am not sure Spartacus can pull it off.

BMC is fielding a good team, but I am not sure they have all the pieces together. Thor really seemed to enjoy stage poaching his way through France last year, Hincapie is there for pace-setting and tutoring (and American Fanbois), and for some reason I just don't see it.

Boonen and Company have the target on their backs. They will need to control the race and have a designated springboard moment. Their worst nightmare would be for Boonen to flat with only Chavanal him 25k from the finish in a group of heavy hitters.

I don't know why, but I keep coming back to Devolder. We have seen him take it. Twice. While lots of Belgain cheer will be targeted to Boonen, Stijn uses that fuel to best Boonen's Ronde record.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

weltyed said:


> I would love to see Lars Boom win just so I could say, "Here comes the BOOM!"
> 
> I don't know how much the teams have prepped on the new course. My guess is a lot. If Fabian can pick the right place AND TIME to ride away SOLO, he will win. But I don't think that will happen this go-around. Teams have shown the way to beat to him: never let a gap form and make him lead. Fabian will always work to pull the riders away from the Group because he can't win in a field sprint. Well, not a true field sprint. We have seen him hit the gas with 1k to go and take the victory. Even with his trick new bike I am not sure Spartacus can pull it off.
> 
> ...



Anyone on any team could have a flat at a bad time and place. You seem to be not considering Terpstra and Steegmans with regard to the strength of Omega Pharma - QuickStep.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Well after pondering the contenders for a while, I think OP-QS is the team to beat and that puts Tommeke and Chavanel as my first picks. FC is in good form and will be dangerous, I just don't see him getting away this year. This is a tough Ronde this year, I wonder who will be strong at the end besides the favorites. How badly will the three loops through Oudenaarde beat up the riders? It could be extremely selective b/4 the 15KM home straight. This could be a really good race, though the weather is unfortunately going to be nice.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Anyone on any team could have a flat at a bad time and place. You seem to be not considering Terpstra and Steegmans with regard to the strength of Omega Pharma - QuickStep.


i know. i hate it when people talk about mechanicals at bad times and all. but i still think it would be bad if they had positioned the 1-2punch and then boonen mechs out. i guess i keep rerunning his time in the forest during paris-roubaix.


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