# Tour de France 2015



## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Is this a preview of what we can expect from the TdF if they can both stay healthy?

Route du Sud - la Dépêche du Midi 2015: Stage 3 Results | Cyclingnews.com

If you add a healthy Froome and Nibali into the mix, this could be a really fun GC battle to watch. Who do you guys have on your podium?


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Rashadabd said:


> Is this a preview of what we can expect from the TdF if they can both stay healthy?
> 
> Route du Sud - la Dépêche du Midi 2015: Stage 3 Results | Cyclingnews.com
> 
> If you add a healthy Froome and Nibali into the mix, this could be a really fun GC battle to watch. Who do you guys have on your podium?


Contador wins on guts alone.
Nibali second by a whisker.
Quintana third (blown up by the cobbles.)
Fragile Froome and his fragile mental capacity will end up fourth (if he stays in the race at all and doesn't break something on the cobbles.)
Pinot 5th, reaffirming he has the grit to be a GC guy for the Tour.
Barguil 6th (yes, Warren movin on up.)
TJ 7th.
Bardet 8th after he misses a major move or two.
Talansky 9th (he's not that good, he gets lucky here and there this year.)
Valverde 10th.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

robdamanii said:


> Contador wins on guts alone.
> Nibali second by a whisker.
> Quintana third (blown up by the cobbles.)
> Fragile Froome and his fragile mental capacity will end up fourth (if he stays in the race at all and doesn't break something on the cobbles.)
> ...


Some of that I can agree with and some I can't. To say Talansky is "not that good" is a bit of a stretch to me. He beat Contador for Du Dauphine last year, has a number of quality wins and podiums on his palmares and has been top 10 at the TdF, but I do think it's very fair to say that he hasn't done anything to prove that he can finish higher than 10th at the TdF yet. My pre race podium and guesses go someting like this:

1st- Contador: He looks so good and so strong this year, but we will find out in week two or three whether that Giro win took too much out of him.

2nd- Nairo Quintana: He finished 2nd on a similar course in 2013 and he already beat some of the other big boys in March.

3rd- Froome: The du Dauphine final stage was big for him and his psyche. He will have a really strong team that knows how to win this thing and he's not afraid to attack anyone, including the top two. If they slip and he is healthy, he will pounce. 

Other contenders: 

The Champ- Nibali will be in play, but I just don't see him riding away from my top three this year if they can stay upright and out of harm's way. He will have his moments and make his attacks as he has a strong engine, but I think he is the odd man out in this head to head battle royale. 

The French: Pinot and Bardet should excite French fans this year and be a threat for stages, the young rider jersey, and/or the overall. 

The Americans- Tejay and Talansky both could be primed for top 10 finishes, but I am not sure they can do much more than that. If we could combine them into one racer, we might have a great grand tour racer.

The oldies but goodies: I never count out Valverde, Hesjedal, and Rodriguez. They are great fighters and savvy attackers. They all have looked good at various points in the season and could surprise if given the opportunity. 

The entertainers and stage hunters: One of my favorites, Kwiatkowski will show well in the World Champ's kit, Katusha will win stages with their depth as will AG2R, and Movistar.

My long shot pick and the team I would love to see do well: I would love to see anyone from MTN Qhubeka win stages or take a jersey. Louis Meintjes is probably their best hope, but Daniel Teklehaimanot has shown that he can surprise us from time to time and Steve Cummings is a beast, particularly given his age.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

As far as the green jersey goes, the pressure will be on my man Cav to show that he can beat the likes of a finally more on form Sagan, Kittel, a coming into his own Degenkolb, Kristoff, Greipel, who looks like he is ready today, Bouhanni and the always dangerous Michael Matthews. Sprints are so hectic in the TdF and many of these guys have been so up and down this season that i truly can't call this one. My hope is that Cav or the Giant boys pull off the most wins and take home the green jersey.


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## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

robdamanii said:


> Contador wins on guts alone.
> Nibali second by a whisker.
> Quintana third (blown up by the cobbles.)
> Fragile Froome and his fragile mental capacity will end up fourth (if he stays in the race at all and doesn't break something on the cobbles.)
> ...


Froome wont break anything on the cobbles. Remember last year? He didn't even make it TO the cobbles.

Provided neither Froome nor Contador get hurt, I see them battling for the top spot. Nibali and Quintana will duke it out for third.

I'd love to see TJ finish as high as fourth, but that will be tough against the French guys.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Green jersey pick: Kristoff.
White: Pinot
Polka Dot: Probably someone like Arredondo or another absolutely pure climber.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Hesjedal worked too hard at the Giro, can't see him being in the mix in the top 10, but can see him being Talansky's lieutenant and going for a stage win.

My bet is Quintana, then Contador and only because I'm thinking Quintana is going to be fresher. Froome in third, Nibali in fourth.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

love4himies said:


> Hesjedal worked too hard at the Giro, can't see him being in the mix in the top 10, but can see him being Talansky's lieutenant and going for a stage win.
> 
> My bet is Quintana, then Contador and only because I'm thinking Quintana is going to be fresher. Froome in third, Nibali in fourth.


I agree with this. Quintana just seems to have no issue in the mountains. Berty is going to still have the Giro in those legs. Froome is a big dude. There are serious climbs this year, and the one stage that should have been OK for him just got a lot harder today. With the road being closed from Galiber to Alp d'Huez, it is being re-routed. I heard speculation it will go up Glandon instead of Galibier. Having ridden both in 2012, I can tell you that a pure climber is going to like that stage a lot more now. Glandon is a real beast of a climb. While Galibier is steep up that side as well, the descent down the backside and the roll to d'Huez is mostly downhill. The new routing wont give that 30 mile coast to the bottom of Alpe d'Huez. It comes right at the end of the tour, and could seriously put a hurt on Froome and Contador.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Here are Cadel's thoughts:

Tour de France: Cadel Evans analyses the chances of Contador, Nibali, Froome and Quintana | Cyclingnews.com


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

Rashadabd said:


> Some of that I can agree with and some I can't. To say Talansky is "not that good" is a bit of a stretch to me. He beat Contador for Du Dauphine last year, has a number of quality wins and podiums on his palmares and has been top 10 at the TdF, but I do think it's very fair to say that he hasn't done anything to prove that he can finish higher than 10th at the TdF yet. My pre race podium and guesses go someting like this:
> 
> 1st- Contador: He looks so good and so strong this year, but we will find out in week two or three whether that Giro win took too much out of him.
> 
> ...


i hate to just quote you, but lots of this i agree with it. I would add that the first week will be extremely trying, which has the potential to damage the hopes of one of the top GC men--I'm predicting Quintana, for what it's worth (i think he'll lose plenty of time on the cobbles). The other thing to look for is whether Kittel has the form to dominate the sprints as he did last year. If not, then my money is on Cav.


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## quadrat (Aug 26, 2011)

Forget Quintana. "The best climber since Marco Pantani" doesn't have the guts to attack. See Route du Sud. He's comfortable surrounded by team mates. The favourites are certainly Contador and the praying mantis. With some luck both crash out and meet again at the Vuelta, the most entertaining tour each year. No idea why Berti with nine Grand Tours under his belt still does the TdF to himself, it's not made for him. Insipid flat stages; the biscuit takes the one with a max elevation of 6 metres, gentle climbs and too few of them, cobbles, no mountain time trial. Don't rule out Nibali. He has the chance to pull a substantial advantage on the cobbles, and the characteristic mountain stages of the TdF, up the gently inclined slopes and down the steep ones play in his favour. I wish they'd climb Alpe d'Huez once from the other side, but there are no parking lots for a million spectators and so it's never going to happen.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

quadrat said:


> Forget Quintana. "The best climber since Marco Pantani" doesn't have the guts to attack. See Route du Sud. He's comfortable surrounded by team mates.


Didn't Quintana win the Giro last year by attacking? And on a really rotten day?


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## TricrossRich (Mar 26, 2014)

Rashadabd said:


> As far as the green jersey goes, the pressure will be on my man Cav to show that he can beat the likes of a finally more on form Sagan, Kittel, a coming into his own Degenkolb, Kristoff, Greipel, who looks like he is ready today, Bouhanni and the always dangerous Michael Matthews. Sprints are so hectic in the TdF and many of these guys have been so up and down this season that i truly can't call this one. My hope is that Cav or the Giant boys pull off the most wins and take home the green jersey.


I'm not sure why you're thinking Cav has a shot at the green jersey.... IMO, calling the green jersey the Sprinter's jersey is unfair because the true sprinters don't really care about it. In order to win the green jersey, you have to be in position to get points at the mid stage sprints and the true sprinters (Cav, Kittel, Greipel) don't really seem to care about them all. They'd rather focus on save their energy for the stage winning sprints. The green jersey is won by guys like Sagan or maybe Degenkolb or even Matthews... guys that have some firepower, but also have enough climbing ability to get over some of the hills and be in position to win points at the mid stage sprints...


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

TricrossRich said:


> I'm not sure why you're thinking Cav has a shot at the green jersey.... IMO, calling the green jersey the Sprinter's jersey is unfair because the true sprinters don't really care about it. In order to win the green jersey, you have to be in position to get points at the mid stage sprints and the true sprinters (Cav, Kittel, Greipel) don't really seem to care about them all. They'd rather focus on save their energy for the stage winning sprints. The green jersey is won by guys like Sagan or maybe Degenkolb or even Matthews... guys that have some firepower, but also have enough climbing ability to get over some of the hills and be in position to win points at the mid stage sprints...


I hear ya, but I mention him because he is one of only a few men who have won the sprinter's jersey in all three grand tours, including the Tour de France (2011). I think he has one more in him, but it will be tough. The competition is stiffer and the course has to be right and involve less climbing on the sprint and intermediate stages for it to work out for him.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

TricrossRich said:


> I'm not sure why you're thinking Cav has a shot at the green jersey.... IMO, calling the green jersey the Sprinter's jersey is unfair because the true sprinters don't really care about it. In order to win the green jersey, you have to be in position to get points at the mid stage sprints and the true sprinters (Cav, Kittel, Greipel) don't really seem to care about them all. They'd rather focus on save their energy for the stage winning sprints. The green jersey is won by guys like Sagan or maybe Degenkolb or even Matthews... guys that have some firepower, but also have enough climbing ability to get over some of the hills and be in position to win points at the mid stage sprints...


It's also his goal:

Mark Cavendish driven by green jersey ambition at Tour de France (video) - Cycling Weekly


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## FujiSteve (Nov 12, 2014)

quadrat said:


> Forget Quintana. "The best climber since Marco Pantani" doesn't have the guts to attack. See Route du Sud. ......


In TDF terms, Quintana is still too new to be labelled like that.

Quintana will attack when he's told to by the team and/or Valverde, who will be the on-road tactician. If he has any sense he won't do anything in the first two weeks except sit and follow the wheels of Froome, Nibbles and Bertie. There is way too much fuss made over these "attacks". Sure they are crowd pleasing, but they don't win tours these days. Either a super team just wears down the opposition, like Sky did in 2012/2013 or it's last man standing like Nibali last year. 

Schleck made a heroic attack on Evans in the 2011 tour, but it was never going to be enough to make up the time he was going to lose in the TT. Evans never really attacked at any stage during that tour, yet he won it. Can you give me an example of the last time an heroic, solo attack won a non-doped tour?


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

FujiSteve said:


> In TDF terms, Quintana is still too new to be labelled like that.
> 
> Quintana will attack when he's told to by the team and/or Valverde, who will be the on-road tactician. If he has any sense he won't do anything in the first two weeks except sit and follow the wheels of Froome, Nibbles and Bertie. There is way too much fuss made over these "attacks". Sure they are crowd pleasing, but they don't win tours these days. Either a super team just wears down the opposition, like Sky did in 2012/2013 or it's last man standing like Nibali last year.
> 
> Schleck made a heroic attack on Evans in the 2011 tour, but it was never going to be enough to make up the time he was going to lose in the TT. Evans never really attacked at any stage during that tour, yet he won it. Can you give me an example of the last time an heroic, solo attack won a non-doped tour?


Much of what you say here is valid, but I doubt Quintana will be answering to anyone anymore. The guy won the Giro comfortably and has finished 2nd here, he will be the road captain or at least share the duties and he rarely makes mistakes.


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## quadrat (Aug 26, 2011)

FujiSteve said:


> In TDF terms, Quintana is still too new to be labelled like that.
> 
> Quintana will attack when he's told to by the team and/or Valverde, who will be the on-road tactician. If he has any sense he won't do anything in the first two weeks except sit and follow the wheels of Froome, Nibbles and Bertie. There is way too much fuss made over these "attacks". Sure they are crowd pleasing, but they don't win tours these days. Either a super team just wears down the opposition, like Sky did in 2012/2013 or it's last man standing like Nibali last year.
> 
> Schleck made a heroic attack on Evans in the 2011 tour, but it was never going to be enough to make up the time he was going to lose in the TT. Evans never really attacked at any stage during that tour, yet he won it. Can you give me an example of the last time an heroic, solo attack won a non-doped tour?


Yes. Contador at the Vuelta 2012. Right after his return from the ban. Got himself in the break on stage 17, then riding on his own for a good 10 miles and took the lead from the seemingly unassailable Rodriguez. Each stage of this Vuelta was more entertaining than the whole TdF won by Wiggins the same year. Giro 2015 Contador vs Team Astana. Suspiciously strong that one, since when is Tiralongo much better in the mountains than Basso, same age? Contador Giro 2011. Richie Porte told that when Berti had punctures and he waited for him, Contador just zipped past and Porte thought, 'why did I even bother? He didn't need the team.' Contador Tirreno-Adriatico 2014, attacks on two stages back to back on his own far from the finishes. On one of them he picked up the breakaway riders one after another and led the whole bunch to the last climb. Didn't bother to ask to share the lead. Berti is a rare athlete, delivering individual achievements in an era cycling is contaminated by team strategy. This is why he's so popular. Just a few examples, I don't know how you could have missed them all. Maybe selective perception, you mentioned the attack of one of the Schlecks sisters in the 2011 TdF after all. Probably missed the more daring one of Contador on the queen stage of this tour despite his injuries also.


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## TricrossRich (Mar 26, 2014)

here are my picks.

1.Contador
2.Quintana
3.Van Guarderen

I think Froome will crash out at some point.... and i think that Nibali's form will be found out. He'll lose time in the first 2 weeks but start to come back and get a top 10.


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## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

Why do so many think Froome is going to crash out? He's crashed out of one your, yet completed many other grand tours (winning one, btw). Most of the other contenders have also crashed out of at least one grand tour, too.


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## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

Jwiffle said:


> Why do so many think Froome is going to crash out? He's crashed out of one your, yet completed many other grand tours (winning one, btw). Most of the other contenders have also crashed out of at least one grand tour, too.


I should point out that my earlier post in response to rob's about Froome on the cobbles was facetious...I was really pointing out that the cobbles are no more likely to do him in than anyone else, seeing as they haven't done him in before. Granted, Nibali may make time on the others on the cobbles, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because the others crash on them.


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## jspharmd (May 24, 2006)

FujiSteve said:


> Can you give me an example of the last time an heroic, solo attack won a non-doped tour?


A better question would be can you give me an example of a non-doped tour?


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## TricrossRich (Mar 26, 2014)

Jwiffle said:


> Why do so many think Froome is going to crash out? He's crashed out of one your, yet completed many other grand tours (winning one, btw). Most of the other contenders have also crashed out of at least one grand tour, too.


he just seems fragile and whiny to me... he dropped out of last year's TDF from crashes... and lost the Dauphine as well (largely from falling of his bike, IMO).


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## radripperaj (Mar 7, 2015)

TricrossRich said:


> he just seems fragile and whiny to me... he dropped out of last year's TDF from crashes... and lost the Dauphine as well (largely from falling of his bike, IMO).


Didn't Froome break his wrist the day before he dropped out last tour? Having broken many bones myself, I would not call anyone whiny who rides a bike anticipating to go on cobbles with a broken wrist whiny. I would call that person a bad a**.


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## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

radripperaj said:


> Didn't Froome break his wrist the day before he dropped out last tour? Having broken many bones myself, I would not call anyone whiny who rides a bike anticipating to go on cobbles with a broken wrist whiny. I would call that person a bad a**.


He broke his wrist, as well as his other hand. Yet tried to continue the next day even though he couldn't hold on to the bars with either hand. So definitely not whiny when it comes to riding through pain.

I'm not a fan of his, though, mainly for how he disrespected Wiggins during the 2012 tour. He did whine about how he believed he was promised co-leadership at that tour. But the whole team had been built with Wiggins in mind, so I seriously doubt that he had been promised such prior to the tour. Even if he had been promised co-leadership, Wiggins was already in yellow, so it showed disrespect to attack him and whine that he thought he was better.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Jwiffle said:


> I should point out that my earlier post in response to rob's about Froome on the cobbles was facetious...I was really pointing out that the cobbles are no more likely to do him in than anyone else, seeing as they haven't done him in before. Granted, Nibali may make time on the others on the cobbles, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because the others crash on them.


Froome also has a history of riding very few spring classics. 

Even Contador and Quintana have ridden a few. I'd say that gives them a slight edge, and Contador survived the cobbles last year, so he has some experience there too.


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## BCSaltchucker (Jul 20, 2011)

love4himies said:


> Hesjedal worked too hard at the Giro, can't see him being in the mix in the top 10, but can see him being Talansky's lieutenant and going for a stage win.
> 
> My bet is Quintana, then Contador and only because I'm thinking Quintana is going to be fresher. Froome in third, Nibali in fourth.


Well Contador and Aru went real hard in the Giro too. Though I think Contador did strategically limit his efforts there, keeping Tour in his sights.

But to me seems obvious Hesjedal is not a podium contender when everyone else shows up (like they didn't in 2012 Giro). And Aru blew Hesjedal away each day Hesjedal seemed destined for mountain stage win this year, despite Aru being a real GC contender more motivated to hedge efforts. Hesjedal will be lucky to get top ten, and could be he peaked in the Giro leaving him prospect for some bad days at the Tour.


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## TricrossRich (Mar 26, 2014)

Jwiffle said:


> Why do so many think Froome is going to crash out? He's crashed out of one your, yet completed many other grand tours (winning one, btw). Most of the other contenders have also crashed out of at least one grand tour, too.


I base my prediction on froome entirely on how he looks on the bike... he simply looks awkward and ungainly, like he's never totally in control....


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## BacDoc (Aug 1, 2011)

TricrossRich said:


> I base my prediction on froome entirely on how he looks on the bike... he simply looks awkward and ungainly, like he's never totally in control....


Did you watch the last 2 stages of the Dauphine? He attacked, dropped everybody, then went on to win those stages by a lot. I'd say his form was pretty good. His style ? Ya looks kind of gangly but when he puts the hammer down that cadence is hard to match. 

Barring injury/crash I think Chris will put in a good result.

Watching the GC guys will be fun but I'm looking forward to the performance of Peter Sagan. Anyone who saw the TOC Mt Baldy stage would surely agree that Sagan was as motivated as anybody. Most thought he would lose 4 minutes or more on that climb, think he only lost 40 seconds. Watching him puke over the guard rail after crossing the finish at the summit says a lot about his drive. Think he is ready for action.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

BCSaltchucker said:


> Well Contador and Aru went real hard in the Giro too. Though I think Contador did strategically limit his efforts there, keeping Tour in his sights.
> 
> But to me seems obvious Hesjedal is not a podium contender when everyone else shows up (like they didn't in 2012 Giro). And Aru blew Hesjedal away each day Hesjedal seemed destined for mountain stage win this year, despite Aru being a real GC contender more motivated to hedge efforts. Hesjedal will be lucky to get top ten, and could be he peaked in the Giro leaving him prospect for some bad days at the Tour.


I agree. 

Hesjedal loves riding in the back of the peloton and he gets caught when the GC guys take off the front and he can't make the cross over to them. I would love to see him ride closer to the front to see how high up the podium he could get.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

Nibali won last year by default. He was just the best of the rest.
I think it will be with Croome and AC.
Not sure if Quintana is ready but he and Nibali will make for some interesting mountain stages!

Sagan for the green though he will need some help from the pure sprinters to take points from a motivated Cav.

Pinot for white.

No idea for polka dot. It seems like that is about being in the right places at the right times the last few TDF's.

I am just hoping the tour is not decided on crashes or illness. I want to see the best teams put their guys in a position to win and watch them battle man on man. LA changed the tour forever by building teams to win. I don't think one man's heroics will win a tour again with a weak team.
If someone can than my hat is off to them as long as they piss and sample clean.


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## Special Eyes (Feb 2, 2011)

I heard that Kittel is out.. True?


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Special Eyes said:


> I heard that Kittel is out.. True?


Yes 
Tour de France 2015: Mark Cavendish?s path cleared by Kittel?s absence | Sport | The Guardian

Good news for Cav though!


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

AJL said:


> Yes
> Tour de France 2015: Mark Cavendish?s path cleared by Kittel?s absence | Sport | The Guardian
> 
> Good news for Cav though!


Yeah, weird illness stuff... Virus of some kind? Vague. But serious...


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Cav's goal is to win stages. He has been talking about beating Merckx's record of stage wins for five or six years. Consistently high placings in a hilly Tour will take too much energy from him. Better to save energy for sprint finishes he can win.

A green jersey means nothing to him compared to winning a stage and crossing the line with a victory salute. If Cav wins the green jersey not many non-cyclists will care. If he wins the sprint on the Champs Elysees it will be on the front page of most papers in Europe and every paper in the UK.

For GC? Froome, Contador, Quintana. Froome is rested, on form, confident, and has a superb team, probably the best team overall. Contador might be tired but he is such a cool poker player you can never tell. He is also the closest anyone has come to Merckx or Hinault in mental toughness. Quintana is fresh and has a good team. He will have much more confidence than in 2013.

Nibbler and the Frenchies were lucky the two real contenders crashed out last year. SaxoTinkoff had no real plan B, and Sky blew themselves up trying to support Little Ricky so everyone else was doubly lucky.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Cinelli 82220 said:


> Cav's goal is to win stages. He has been talking about beating Merckx's record of stage wins for five or six years. Consistently high placings in a hilly Tour will take too much energy from him. Better to save energy for sprint finishes he can win.
> 
> A green jersey means nothing to him compared to winning a stage and crossing the line with a victory salute.
> 
> ...


He has actually made it clear that winning another green jersey (2011) is a major goal this year. That is because the changes to the points rules make it a real possibility to do both for the first time in years. You get major bonuses for wins on flat stages. They are calling it the anti-Sagan rule.

Mark Cavendish eyes Peter Sagan's Green Jersey in the Tour de France | Other Sport | Sport | Daily Express


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## aclinjury (Sep 12, 2011)

Jwiffle said:


> He broke his wrist, as well as his other hand. Yet tried to continue the next day even though he couldn't hold on to the bars with either hand. So definitely not whiny when it comes to riding through pain.
> 
> I'm not a fan of his, though, mainly for how he disrespected Wiggins during the 2012 tour. He did whine about how he believed he was promised co-leadership at that tour. But the whole team had been built with Wiggins in mind, so I seriously doubt that he had been promised such prior to the tour. Even if he had been promised co-leadership, Wiggins was already in yellow, so it showed disrespect to attack him and whine that he thought he was better.


it also has something to do with Wiggins not sharing the profitst to Froome immediately after the win. When it comes to money, not cool to withhold funds eh.

As for respect and disrespect, big deal. Contador attacked and dropped Armstrong when they were on Astana with Armstrong the leader. Nobody seem to disrespect Contador for that.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

juno said:


> Nibali won last year by default. He was just the best of the rest.
> I think it will be with Croome and AC.
> Not sure if Quintana is ready but he and Nibali will make for some interesting mountain stages!
> .


Nibali won last year because he was the best, period. On the stages that were his rival's undoing (cobblestones), he was beating classics specialists (Cancellara). The way he decimated the remaining rivals in the mountains showed that nobody would have been able to contain him, though it's fair to consider how easily he would've been able to ride in this manner with SKY and Saxo riding for a leader.

To win the TdF, one has to be among the "rest". The race always has attrition. It'll be interesting to see who comes out of the 1st week in position to challenge.


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## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

aclinjury said:


> it also has something to do with Wiggins not sharing the profitst to Froome immediately after the win. When it comes to money, not cool to withhold funds eh.
> 
> As for respect and disrespect, big deal. Contador attacked and dropped Armstrong when they were on Astana with Armstrong the leader. Nobody seem to disrespect Contador for that.


Whaaaa? Wiggins didn't share because Froome had disrespected him. 

And Contador was the leader of Astana, not Armstrong. He was there first as leader, Armstrong just tried to bully his way into leadership. I seriously cannot understand how you see it any other way.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

davidka said:


> Nibali won last year because he was the best, period. On the stages that were his rival's undoing (cobblestones), he was beating classics specialists (Cancellara). The way he decimated the remaining rivals in the mountains showed that nobody would have been able to contain him, though it's fair to consider how easily he would've been able to ride in this manner with SKY and Saxo riding for a leader.
> 
> To win the TdF, one has to be among the "rest". The race always has attrition. It'll be interesting to see who comes out of the 1st week in position to challenge.


Maybe so, but I think with both Sky and TS grinding away like the top teams do then he would have been left out in the cold by his team, We see it every year now. The LA legacy, bring a strong team, wear everyone else out, place your guy in a position to put time on everyone else.
Let's hope we can watch the top three GC teams battle it out this year!


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## Stoneman (Mar 1, 2009)

I see Froome losing time to the others during the first week. He's just not a strong guy on the flats and can't handle a bike like the others. He also looks too lean already and I suspect he'll suffer a bonk at least one day in the mountains.

I see Nibali gaining time on the cobbled stage and coming out ahead of the GC favorites before the big mountain stages arrive. This will favor him as I don't see him arriving in top form until week 2 of the TdF. 

Quintana is my pick for the win. He's prepared well by riding some of the cobbled classics this spring and he's just back from living at altitude in Colombia. He's smart and very mature for such a young rider. 

Contador is a great champion but I just think by week 3 the fatigue will be too much against a fresher Quintana.


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## love4himies (Jun 12, 2012)

Stoneman said:


> I see Froome losing time to the others during the first week. He's just not a strong guy on the flats and can't handle a bike like the others. He also looks too lean already and I suspect he'll suffer a bonk at least one day in the mountains.
> 
> ...


No problem, Porte will be there to bring him an illegal gel or two.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

How deep in the climbing bench for Movistar and Astana? I really haven't been keeping up as well on cycling news sites this year to know. Nibbles seem to have a good team last year, but given the lack of competition, that's not a very useful indicator. I wonder if Spanish pride will work out for part of the race with Movistar and TS working together (especially in the Pyrenees).


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## gofast2wheeler (Oct 13, 2011)

I'm picking AC. Nibali won't hold in the climbs. Quintana is dangerous but will be broken by other climbers. Froome maybe if Porte is able to marshall him up the hills. Everybody says Quintana is the best climber but if I remember Froome spanked him when he won his tour. Also when Quintana won the Giro he played possum till that one climb where there was controversy. AC is the better at strategy during races and will be keen on Quintanas tactics. Should be real exciting if we see a four man dual up the mountains. Get the DVR fired up. Ohhh yea!!!


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## Oxtox (Aug 16, 2006)

ABC...

anyone but Contador.


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## FujiSteve (Nov 12, 2014)

quadrat said:


> Yes. Contador at the Vuelta 2012.......
> 
> ..snip...snip..
> ....
> Just a few examples, I don't know how you could have missed them all. Maybe selective perception, you mentioned the attack of one of the Schlecks sisters in the 2011 TdF after all. Probably missed the more daring one of Contador on the queen stage of this tour despite his injuries also.



I deliberately missed them because when I said "Tour", I was talking about only the TDF. I thought that was obvious because this is a TDF thread. 

Anyway, to answer your points, I don't rate anything that happened in the Vuelta because it's a much easier race with shorter stages. And I didn't miss Contador's attack in 2011 because it didn't win him the TDF did it?


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## aclinjury (Sep 12, 2011)

I'll go with Froome. How can so many people not pick Froome?

Froome will take it, and no it won't be because Contador is not well rested. Contador raced Sud after Giro, so he was already well rested or else his manager wouldn't let him.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

TricrossRich said:


> I'm not sure why you're thinking Cav has a shot at the green jersey.... IMO, calling the green jersey the Sprinter's jersey is unfair because the true sprinters don't really care about it. ...


I believe there has been changes to the green jersey scoring system this year that heavily weight stage wins over intermediate points.



juno said:


> Maybe so, but I think with both Sky and TS grinding away like the top teams do then he would have been left out in the cold by his team...!


Astana has been that team of late. They were incredible at the Giro and the talk is that they were the "B" team. It's always hard to tell who (and who's team) will arrive truly ready. I hope week 1 goes by fairly cleanly. The classics style racing is exciting but when 1/2 of the favorites don't make it to the 1st mountain stage it's pretty disappointing to me.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

FujiSteve said:


> I deliberately missed them because when I said "Tour", I was talking about only the TDF. I thought that was obvious because this is a TDF thread.
> 
> Anyway, to answer your points, I don't rate anything that happened in the Vuelta because it's a much easier race with shorter stages. And I didn't miss Contador's attack in 2011 because it didn't win him the TDF did it?


You think the Vuelta stages are easier?

By far, the par course of the Tour are the easiest: shallow, steady gradient climbs that lend well to team support. 

Vuelta/Giro, not so much.


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## NJBiker72 (Jul 9, 2011)

robdamanii said:


> You think the Vuelta stages are easier?
> 
> By far, the par course of the Tour are the easiest: shallow, steady gradient climbs that lend well to team support.
> 
> Vuelta/Giro, not so much.


Agree. Some of the Vurlta climbs make TDF look like the Tour Of Iowa.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I'm hoping for Contador to take the win but he might be too tired from his Giro efforts. 

I think this is a good Tour for Quintana because of the dearth of TT miles. For the same reason, it's a bad Tour for Froome. 

I think the podium will be Contador, Nibbles and Quintana. Not necessarily in that order.


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## FujiSteve (Nov 12, 2014)

robdamanii said:


> You think the Vuelta stages are easier?
> 
> By far, the par course of the Tour are the easiest: shallow, steady gradient climbs that lend well to team support.
> 
> Vuelta/Giro, not so much.


If you are just looking at the physical profile of the stages, then sure you can make that comparison. But any race can be made harder or easier by the effort of the riders and teams. Now I know that not every team in the TDF tries to win every stage, but there are many more teams and many more higher quality riders trying to win any particular stage of the TDF then there are of the Vuelta, regardless of the profile of the stage. 

Remember that stage early in the 2013 TDF? It looked flat and easy on paper. Then the crosswinds started, Contador's team had enough experience to take advantage and they took more than a minute out of Froome that day. 

I'll repeat my claim that early, solo, heroic attacks just will not work in the TDF.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

aclinjury said:


> I'll go with Froome. How can so many people not pick Froome?
> 
> Froome will take it, and no it won't be because Contador is not well rested. Contador raced Sud after Giro, so he was already well rested or else his manager wouldn't let him.


I also pick Froome FTW, with Quintana second, and Contador third. 

I'd like to see Contador succeed with the double. Failing that, a repeat by Nibali.


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## RRRoubaix (Aug 27, 2008)

robdamanii said:


> Froome also has a history of riding very few spring classics.
> 
> Even Contador and Quintana have ridden a few. I'd say that gives them a slight edge, and Contador survived the cobbles last year, so he has some experience there too.


I'd agree w/ this. There for a long time, you didn't need to worry about ASO throwing in cobbles and such, but now you do.



TricrossRich said:


> he just seems fragile and whiny to me... he dropped out of last year's TDF from crashes... and lost the Dauphine as well (largely from falling of his bike, IMO).





radripperaj said:


> Didn't Froome break his wrist the day before he dropped out last tour? Having broken many bones myself, I would not call anyone whiny who rides a bike anticipating to go on cobbles with a broken wrist whiny. I would call that person a bad a**.


Exactly. No one racing a 3 week grand tour is a pu$$y. Don't get me wrong- a lot of top racers seem like they're on the edge of being unhealthy- but the beefy/healthy ones ain't ever going to win the Tour. (Big Mig was the last- and his probably don't count anyway).


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