# Tour Stage 18 - 189k



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

Haven't seen Stage 17, but I have seen some results. Sounds like sprinters haven't been notified that they aren't supposed to win stages with climbs. Maybe they translated the Norwegian Tous Fous du Tour wrong. Also, reading some discussions of that 20 hour descent it sounded like the roads were rain-slicked, but I'm watching at kilometer52 and it looks like nothing but sun. If that sticks, the riders must have been taking some extreme chances. And that's what makes this race great. How far will you go to win (let's not take this doping)? Voeckler showed a few issues with his "stellar descending capapbilities," and I hear Sanchez pulled a sweet endo. As long as its not and endo-ver easy.

Contador made some digs, but it looks like they didn't stick. Which isn't like him. I'm not sure if he really doesn't have it or the other GC guys are just working together to cover it. Evans has been a man on a mission, and the Schlecks have been...the Schlecks. I wonder if Bjrne Riis is happy he doesn't have to deal with them, even though Conti is painted into a corner. 


On to Stage 18. Dis somebody say stages shouldn't end with descents? Well guess what - four climbs, yo! And all are HC! Not just that, but according to the profile the third HC is halfway up the final climb? Wait, what? Well, that's what it says.

But this is where we start turning our attention from stage winners to the GC guys. So much can happen and it's so tough to guess. I know I get caught up in the emotion and can't predict squat. We know the riders are running out of klicks, so I have to think Contador will go like a bat out of Hell. If there were time bonuses I'm sure he would make an effort to take the stage. But with the lack of said bonuses, it leaves the stage win open for a non-GC contender. That is a good thing I guess.

So, let's hear it. Will Contador get some distance? Will Tommy V keep yellow? Will Frandy (whoever came up with that should trademark it!) Will Evans have a bad day? Will a sprinter win a true mountain stage?


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## jswilson64 (May 20, 2008)

It is definitely time for the fancy men to dig deep into the suitcase of courage, grit their teeth, stamp the pedals, and light the blue touch paper.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Evans will be glued to Contador's wheel throughout the day, giving no quarter. Andy and Frank will hold hands the entire way, and not do a damn thing because they can't just decide who will lead and who will be a domestique. Voeckler will fight like hell itself, and hang onto his yellow by the skin of his teeth, knowing that he will lose it on the Alpe. Danielson and Cunego will crack and lose time again. Basso will be blown away by the accelerations of SteakUmms and Sammy.

Jelle will go nuts, grabbing every point he can get his scruffy hands on. Gilbert and Rojas will nearly come to blows fighting it out for the sprint points early on. Cavendish will face the time cut and just barely make it (maybe thanks to his team car and a tow rope?)

A big break will go away after the sprint. The win will come from a non GC guy. 

Jeremy Roy. He's been a busy beaver.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

jswilson64 said:


> It is definitely time for the fancy men to dig deep into the suitcase of courage, grit their teeth, stamp the pedals, and light the blue touch paper.


When do they climb like scalded cats?


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## Wile_E_Coyote (Jul 15, 2011)

Seems like this tour has seen a lot of waiting. I for one hope the wait is up and we see fireworks.


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## godot (Feb 3, 2004)

Andy will drop a chain, then complain that shifting is hard and shouldn't be part of the tour.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

I predict that this stage will end the "Tour de Stare" amongst the GC contenders. Voeckler will lose the yeller jersery (unless some kind of miracle occurs) and Contador, hungry for at least a podium spot, will put time into everyone in the GC.


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

Sanchez, who will ride with AC, for the win. AC to take time on Evans, but not enough. Evans takes yellow. French hearts are broken. L'Equipe will realise that there will be no french stage winners this year. Sacre bleu!


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

Uphill finish. Yawn.


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## KenS (Jan 28, 2004)

We will get to see whether the book of matches analogy is valid. Contador has been lighting matches the last couple of stages. Tomorrow requires a lot of matches.


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## sneakyracer (Dec 1, 2007)

AJL said:


> I predict that this stage will end the "Tour de Stare" amongst the GC contenders. Voeckler will lose the yeller jersery (unless some kind of miracle occurs) and Contador, hungry for at least a podium spot, will put time into everyone in the GC.


Before the last 2 stages I would have though exactly that. And, while the "top" guys are staring each other some guy, much lower in the GC goes out to win another prestigious TDF stage. 

BUT, yesterday and maybe to a lesser extent, today, was a a prelude to whats in store for tomorrow. Its getting late in the tour and thankfully Contador is stirring things up. Cadel can taste it too so he will be aggressive. The Schlecks are running out of chances so unless they want to gamble on the TT, tomorrow and specially the stage after are huge opportunities to get some time...or loose some. They complained about descents well, they got 2 back to back mtn top finishes to put their money where their mouth is. 

Still, good climbers way behind in the GC might make a run for it on the col Angel and take monster time on the top GC guys if they are staring at each other and saving energy for the last climb, maybe just enough to hold on till the end. BUT, hopefully, the top end guys have some pride and keep the pace up in all the climbs and prevent a group to get too far ahead.


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

I think yellow will be decided on this stage. 

Evans: has been consistently strong, physically and mentally "in the zone" since stage 1. But it will be bothering him that Contador seems to be peaking just when the big peaks are coming. He'll need his team more than ever tomorrow..so long as he doesn't lose too much time to AC, yellow is almost in the bag. But if any stage has Evans meltdown written all over it, its this. 

AC: Berty is on the upswing...I'd say he sold his soul to Diablo as he is riding like a man possessed. I'm guessing he'll attack during the last 5km before the peak at Col d'Izoard (middle climb) working with Sanchez down to Briacon and to the finish, with the hope to leave Evans et al at least 4 min behind at the finish. But I'm guessing the other GC contenders will be strong enough that AC will only gain 2 min.

Frandy: This is there last chance to prove themselves worthy of the yellow jersey.If they do find form, which I doubt, they might just put a leash on AC which would work more to Evans benefit. 

Voeckler: Has his work cut out for him...he might have enough fans to keep him going.

Sanchez: Wildcard.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

i first read "frandy" on BSNYC


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Europcar will drive over the first HC, but will run out of gas on the second HC. The Leopard Trek train will take over and blow the race to smithereens by the time it reaches the last big climb. The breakaway will be caught and dispatched. This leaves just the "heads of state" riding alone from Col du Lautaret onwards. Voeckler will fail and lose minutes. Contador will win, followed by Sanchez and Evans, but the time gaps will be relatively small. Evans will be in yellow. Frandy will lose a little time and generally not impress, but they get one last chance to shine on Alpe d'Huez which they will win together since the camera will not be able to separate them on the line, but to no avail. Ultimately it will be Contador versus Evans in the ITT on Saturday ... and Evans will take it.


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## KenS (Jan 28, 2004)

ukbloke said:


> Europcar will drive over the first HC, but will run out of gas on the second HC.


ukbloke has laid out a very plausible scenario. My disagreement is with the assertion that Europcar will be driving over the the first HC. I think that Europcar will play it much more conservatively. Their reasoning will be that they are just fine if the Anointed Stars just want to mark and stare at each other. Trek Leopard has shown itself to be quite willing to drive in the front in past stages. I think that they are the team most likely to destroy themselves in an attempt to thin the herd. (And it won't work.)


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## Wildcard (Apr 29, 2011)

Oh the dilemma, stay up late tonight and watch this epic stage or save for Alpe d’Huez tomorrow night!!


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## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

Wildcard said:


> Oh the dilemma, stay up late tonight and watch this epic stage or save for Alpe d’Huez tomorrow night!!


Why not both:thumbsup:


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

KenS said:


> I think that they are the team most likely to destroy themselves in an attempt to thin the herd. (And it won't work.)


I don't quite get this tactic either. It worked in 2008, but it's not 2008 anymore, WTH?


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Wildcard said:


> Oh the dilemma, stay up late tonight and watch this epic stage or save for Alpe d’Huez tomorrow night!!


I got up very early to watch the stage today, and crossed paths with my wife who was just returning from a very late night out with her friends!


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

KenS said:


> ukbloke has laid out a very plausible scenario. My disagreement is with the assertion that Europcar will be driving over the the first HC.


Your reasoning and race tactics are impeccable. However, this is the Queen Stage of the TDF and Europcar have the yellow jersey. The French public and the sponsors insist that Europcar and Tommy ride at their appointed spot at the front as soon as the TV coverage starts. They can save some guys for later, but it isn't going to matter in the end.

Actually the start will be very hectic like the last 2 days. It will be hard to establish a breakaway that satisfies all the major teams and is sufficiently neutral to the various competitions. The early intermediate sprint changes the dynamics a lot - I'd guess that there won't even be a breakaway until its done. It could be a full-on finish-line sprint with big sprint trains ahead of the real fireworks!


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I think Contador's gonna win the stage. Don't know who will be in yellow though.


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## Bullvine (Sep 9, 2009)

AC wins the day,

Evans has his one bad day,

The Shuck Bro's hold hands up the hill,

And TV keeps yellow buy 1 min,

GC standing after the final climb is
1st TV
2nd AC
3rd Andy
4th Evans
5th Frank

or maybe not...


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Bert will shoot his pistol on this stage. 

Evans will lose about 30 seconds, not cracking, just can't match the acceleration.

Andy Schleck will crack, but conveniently cover it up with a slipped chain mechanical so he can blame Bert and others for attacking and not waiting for him. Radio will call in Fabian to neutralize the stage, but he's in the autobus and gets booed. 

Voeckler will crack late in the game, still keeping yellow but barely by just a few seconds.

And I agree, Sammy will gain enormous time and be a genuine podium threat.

Elsewhere, we might get some roadside footage on youtube showing Cavendish hitching an uphill ride.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

i just realized conti doesnt have anything to show this tour. well, other than bad luck. does he go for time AND the stage win? getting the stage might give him the time anyway, so...


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

weltyed said:


> i just realized conti doesnt have anything to show this tour. well, other than bad luck. does he go for time AND the stage win? getting the stage might give him the time anyway, so...


He should go for the stage win on the TT. Today should be only about time, winning might happen, but the effort must be measured given the next 2 stages.

Two Leopard-Trek riders in the break? And two for Evans and Sanchez as well? Brings in the team competition (poor Garmin only has one), and provides some potentially interesting tactics to unfold down the line once the GC attacks come.

Good good good! :thumbsup:


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## pedalruns (Dec 18, 2002)

Watching before heading to work, can't wait to see what happens with the race.........BUT just want to say the scenery.. So BEAUTIFUL..... What other sport can compare with this... Enjoy the fireworks and the human suffering!


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Leipheimer could win a stage like this on a very long breakaway. It looks like he's going for it..


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Nevermind. Basso just got into the chase group with levi. No way the peloton is going to let that get away.


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

I still say Contador will attack approx. 5km from the top of this middle HC, with Sanchez in tow.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

I was just thinking "Andy should go, no one is on his wheel but Europcar...."

And BOOM!

Good move, bridging rider up ahead, another beyond that.... if they time it right he can catch a team mate at the top.....


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

I think Andy will bridge with his two teamates and have them herd him down the slope.

Peleton is smashed in the back :/


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Andy bridged to Poosthuma. Monfort not too far ahead. Voeckler et al. 2:00 back! Some Astana guy in the lead. Just kidding - Iglinski at the front (respect!)


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Andy went "Hi ... Bye!" to Poosthuma. Tête de course just topped the 2nd climb.


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

this is getting fun...........


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

ColdRider said:


> Andy went "Hi ... Bye!" to Poosthuma. Tête de course just topped the 2nd climb.


And Leopard-Trek completes the classic move. 

Frank getting dragged along by the chase, Andy with a guide/draft for the approach to the final climb.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> And Leopard-Trek completes the classic move.
> 
> Frank getting dragged along by the chase, Andy with a guide/draft for the approach to the final climb.


Andy bridged to Monfort and is guiding him down. Commentators where going "wtf are TWO guys doing up front..." earlier.

Maillot Jaune +2:00


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Would Frank attack on the later portion of the Galibier (last 5k?) if he feels that his bro is safe and the contenders are weakening?


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## desurfer (Feb 13, 2006)

Please, enough with this bike changing BS. Run what ya brung.


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## slowdave (Nov 29, 2005)

frank is the stronger of the schleck boys i think is should be when het attacks not if.
But how will andy watch him over his shoulder if hes too far ahead?


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

den bakker said:


> you really think that was on purpose? what would be the point? seriously.


I think it was. Different gear ratios would be my guess.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

desurfer said:


> Please, enough with this bike changing BS. Run what ya brung.


you really think that was on purpose? what would be the point? seriously.


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## desurfer (Feb 13, 2006)

den bakker said:


> you really think that was on purpose? what would be the point? seriously.


Yeah, how many times do you think Contador magically has a mechanical at the bottom of major climbs?


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

den bakker said:


> you really think that was on purpose? what would be the point? seriously.


Previouly, Contador has changed bikes before a final climb that weighs less or has different gearing... i sure hope that was a mechanical though... not a fan of the scheduled bike change....


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

Wow Schleck is making up time like mad


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

slowdave said:


> frank is the stronger of the schleck boys i think is should be when het attacks not if.
> But how will andy watch him over his shoulder if hes too far ahead?


I was wondering if Frank would attack, considering there is the possibility that he "pulls" the rest of the group to Andy.

My thinking is for Frank to wait for Andy to "secure" his lead and then go to put more time on Evans/Contador.

Andy should only care about one person and that is Andy.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

Marc said:


> I think it was. Different gear ratios would be my guess.


except the final climb is not much different than the previous ones. No need for anything different than a 21. This is not Zoncolan.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

weltyed said:


> started on a tt machine then switched, if memory serves.


I remember watching that...and LMAO when he lost lots of time as a result.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

i cant wait to actually see this.

and im certain contador changed bikes. he did it during the giro. sometimes lighter wheels and different gearing. heck, somebody did it on the final TT. started on a tt machine then switched, if memory serves.


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

Anyone keeping an eye on Cavendish? He might be using 3x6 wheel drive again..


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Saxo to Euskatel : "Let's make a deal" ?

They talked about the change of bikes on Eurosport yesterday and said that -most of the time- the time you gained was nullified by the time it took to change back. Might not apply to this sort of stage where time gaps can be a lot higher.

Iglinskiy caught. Andy is maillot jaune _sur la route_. +3:00


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Andy's group keeps increasing that gap. It's getting to be pretty unmanageable for the rest of the contenders.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

SilasCL said:


> Andy's group keeps increasing that gap. It's getting to be pretty unmanageable for the rest of the contenders.


OTOH, they're only now at the base of the climb proper.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Marc said:


> OTOH, they're only now at the base of the climb proper.


Sure, but unless Andy is really hurting, it's going to be a pretty tough chase back.


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

He is unlikely to hold that gap though.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

There's reportedly a headwind and AS will be alone soon so he won't hold that gap with Basso, Conti, Evans and Sanchez sharing the work (assuming they do work together for part of hte climb).


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

Andy needs to leave some in the tank for tomorrow and he is not great at teh ITT, so... i'm still thinking Cadel.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

I don't know... That group held the gap across the "flat", if Andy is as good on the Galibier as he was on the Izoard, how do the rest of the bunch catch him?


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

What is Contador thinking? How long can he wait until he begins chasing AS? At least evans started the day with a lead over AS so he can cede some time, but AS is losing this tour IMO


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

llama31 said:


> but AS is losing this tour IMO


you meant AC, right?


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

ColdRider said:


> I don't know... That group held the gap across the "flat", if Andy is as good on the Galibier as he was on the Izoard, how do the rest of the bunch catch him?


OTOH, Andy is doing an awful lot of work with the rest of the escapees riding his wheel.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

> how do the rest of the bunch catch him?


there's a headwind. if (big IF at this point) evans et al work together, they'll pull back some time


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

ColdRider said:


> I don't know... That group held the gap across the "flat", if Andy is as good on the Galibier as he was on the Izoard, how do the rest of the bunch catch him?


Andy is alone in a headwind and Conti and Sanchez seem to haver an understanding.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Snakebit said:


> He is unlikely to hold that gap though.


That's what I'm thinking, but it's not budging yet.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

asciibaron said:


> you meant AC, right?


Yes, AC is losing it...oops


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

llama31 said:


> (assuming they do work together for part of hte climb).


which never happens


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

Snakebit said:


> Andy is alone in a headwind and Conti and Sanchez seem to haver an understanding.


Definitely. There is a spanish conspiracy brewing, those two are as thick as thieves.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

den bakker said:


> which never happens


well, maybe not basso/voeckler/evans, but conti and sanchez got something cooking


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

Evans was looking around like "wtf, let's go" and nothing.


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

That wind looks like West Texas all last month. Hills are a bit bigger though.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

llama31 said:


> What is Contador thinking? How long can he wait until he begins chasing AS? At least evans started the day with a lead over AS so he can cede some time, but AS is losing this tour IMO


My guess is not wanting to blow up. 

Riding within limit : small time loss
Blowing up / cracking : big time loss


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

Feel bad for Cadel, he's doing all the work


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

Wow! No organized chase. So what should Evans do?


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

Oh dear, Cadel has gone back to his old ways this stage..expecting someone else to provide a wheel to suck on whilst Andy steals precious seconds.


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

llama31 said:


> So what should Evans do?


At some point he has to decide whether he want's to win the Tour or ride wheels...So if he want's to win, he can't wait for others, he has to take it himself. If he can't do that...he will never win.


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## Magsdad (Jun 29, 2005)

Great ride by Andy, finally.

Cadel looks like he wants to just pop it, but is too concerned to go it alone. He's stuck. This is going to be fun!


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

He is the "biggest" favorite amongt the bunch with the most to lose and the "responsability" to drive the bunch is his/team.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

Schleck's lead is now over 4 min...Cadel is letting it slip away. He's got to chase! What a reversal from previous stages.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

llama31 said:


> Schleck's lead is now over 4 min...Cadel is letting it slip away. He's got to chase! What a reversal from previous stages.


That seems to be what the riders are betting on. Evans burning himself out leading the charge.


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## aengbretson (Sep 17, 2009)

I was wondering if Cadel remembered 2007, letting Sastre go too far out thinking he wasn't a real threat... Seems like Contador is saving himself for an attack tomorrow since he isn't working AT ALL.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Evans made his choice for the win driving hard. It was either catch Andy or limit time loss. I don't like the rider, But big props!


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

Voeckler is still right there with Evans


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## jswilson64 (May 20, 2008)

Finally, Andy throws a punch. Good on 'im!


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

5.5k to go, Andy looks good. He looks happy. On an 8% pitch.


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

aengbretson said:


> I was wondering if Cadel remembered 2007, letting Sastre go too far out thinking he wasn't a real threat... Seems like Contador is saving himself for an attack tomorrow since he isn't working AT ALL.


Yep..Cadel working too hard for the other GCs. He'll pay for it tomorrow when the Spaniards attack from the get-go...stage 20 is only 109km.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Does Frank put in an attack to disrupt the pace?

Andy 3:15 up but gap is dropping.

How long can evans climb standing?! Wow.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Much respect to Cadel, I am not a fan, but kudos for the effort on display!


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Andy FTW plus time-trial gap...*

for Andy to put this away, he needs to cross the line first here, which he should do, since the contenders would have to close about a minute per mile at this point...

But he will also need the margin above contador that he will lose in the TT.

(All other things considered, such as these two finishing fairly equal tomorrow - posible, since both are burning similar matches today, and everyone else sees the podium as still up-for-grabs.)

Will he have a sufficient time gap at the end of today?


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

getting ahead of things a little, but it occurs to me that this sets up a very interesting situation for tomorrow on the alpe--do one of the schlecks attack again? which one do the other GC riders cover? does contador have enough in the tank to attack tomorrow?


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Much respect to Cadel, I am not a fan, but kudos for the effort on display!


Same here Hoo... Gap was going down about 10-15sec/km but stabilizing right now. An attack from then bunch is coming!


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

this is nail biting good. 3:09 gap, wow.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Frank has stuck to Contador's wheel the whole time. Nag nag nag. 

And down goes Condador!


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

YES - conti is toast


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Frank has stuck to Contador's wheel the whole time. Nag nag nag.
> 
> And down goes Condador!


There went the vegetarian theory.


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

OMG there goes contador


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Contador in trouble. And explains the earlier non-chase.


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Frank has stuck to Contador's wheel the whole time. Nag nag nag.
> 
> And down goes Condador!


He has a little breathing room now.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*that might be the gap - contador dropped.*

that might be the gap - contador just got dropped - with abt 2.5 k for AC, andy just might open yet another minute on AC here...


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Evans to voeckler : " err you want to keep the jersey?..."


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

Will andy have enough gas for tomorrow/


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

TheDon said:


> Will andy have enough gas for tomorrow/


Yuppers.


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

ColdRider said:


> Evans to voeckler : " err you want to keep the jersey?..."


Disappointing from Voeckler..you have the yellow you should try to defend it. Evans has towed him up the Galibier. 

Andy has really burnt his match on this one.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*wow. anyone but AC rite now*

wow. anyone but AC rite now in final half k


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

Hard to understand a fan trying to touch these guys at this point, theyre so strained a fly could break them.


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## wiz525 (Dec 31, 2007)

How the heck does Voeckler still have a domestique!?! hmmmmmm.......


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

> Will andy have enough gas for tomorrow/


Maybe not, but I bet Frank attacks tomorrow...keep Evans guessing and working


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## rhauft (Aug 8, 2006)

Voeckler keeps yellow for another day!


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

Way to go Tommy


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

Wow VOECKLER for the yellow


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## Henry Porter (Jul 25, 2006)

Voeckler keeps the jersey. Sweet.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

cityeast said:


> Disappointing from Voeckler..you have the yellow you should try to defend it. Evans has towed him up the Galibier.
> 
> Andy has really burnt his match on this one.


Lost in all this was Voeckler hanging on... What-a-ride!!!!

If you look at him at the end of the race, he was digging deep deep deep... That was beyond redline!


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

ColdRider said:


> Lost in all this was Voeckler hanging on... What-a-ride!!!!
> 
> If you look at him at the end of the race, he was digging deep deep deep... That was beyond redline!


No kidding. What, a week-and-a-half of folks saying he was doomed to loose it. Still has it...and stayed with it after AC broke.


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

holy crap TV has impressed me.


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## Sylint (Jul 27, 2009)

Henry Porter said:


> Voeckler keeps the jersey. Sweet.


 
that was a helluva dig at the end.

Great great chase by Evans. Andy looked burnt at the end though. Tomorrow is going to be great.


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## Alaska Mike (Sep 28, 2008)

One of the best Tour stages I have seen. Andy for the attack, Cadel for dragging the chase, Tommy for a super gutsy ride to keep yellow, and Frank for playing a good teammate and still taking 2nd. Tomorrow should be interesting. I doubt Tommy will still be in yellow after today and with Cadel looking for time.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Amazing finish.. wow.. Alberto looked crushed.. Andy really pushed it but payed from the long break. Frank might have given a few seconds to the other guys though with that sprint for second but well played. Awesome.. and damn Voeckler is the man... Anyone else think he might have a chance!!??


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

TV has no chance, his TT is the suck. the question is how good will Cadel be tomorrow with Frank attacking to break him.


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

Andy Schlek's ride reminds me a lot of what Floyd pulled off a few years ago...going early, holding off the bunch and making up a bunch of time.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

TheDon said:


> Wow VOECKLER for the yellow





Henry Porter said:


> Voeckler keeps the jersey. Sweet.





rhauft said:


> Voeckler keeps yellow for another day!


The phrase "cold dead hands" comes to mind.

He looked like he wanted to barf before the last climb, he looked bad all climb, he gave it everything. Which is what I expect from him.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Andy and frank are going to need more time on evans so it's going to be interesting for tomorrow.

Contador is 4:00 down. He can hear the fat lady in the background... He is not done yet, but tomorrow us hc/hc/hc finish.


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## Magsdad (Jun 29, 2005)

*Wow!*

Voeckler, Schlecks, Evans.

What a great day of racing. I love this sport!


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Andy, Cadel, Voeckler with incredible rides.

Cadel still in place to win it Saturday, barring disaster tomorrow. Contador is finished. He should just pack it up and go home.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Voeckler or anyone in top 8 could podium.*

Voeckler or anyone in top 8 could podium. 

Question: Considering the talent, and barring a car running over a pack of cyclists, could anyone outside of these eight podium?
voeckler, a schleck, f schleck, evans, cunego, basso, contador, sanchez.


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> The phrase "cold dead hands" comes to mind.
> 
> He looked like he wanted to barf before the last climb, he looked bad all climb, he gave it everything. Which is what I expect from him.


Nobody gave more for the TDF today than Voeckler. He may not even be on the podium but he has as much heart as anyone in the race.


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## boarder1995 (May 9, 2006)

Is the fat lady a butcher too?


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

cityeast said:


> Disappointing from Voeckler..you have the yellow you should try to defend it. Evans has towed him up the Galibier.
> 
> Andy has really burnt his match on this one.


so did Evans so it's probably not much of a problem. 
Frank had a relatively easy ride (things considered). What is Evans going to do when Frank attacks tomorrow?


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## Wile_E_Coyote (Jul 15, 2011)

That was great theatre today. You gotta love sport!


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## izzyfly (Jul 10, 2009)

*(Andy's) Mama's proud today.*

Yes, you can be all that, great athlete, caring son and brother. I know it's one more big mountain ride and the ITT, but I'm going for Andy or Frank, for the win.


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## TheDon (Feb 3, 2006)

Contador attacks like mad tomorrow but doesn't have it in him


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## superflychief (Mar 25, 2008)

Come on guys. Contador is gonna have a big steak tonight and he'll be right back in things tomorrow.


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

superflychief said:


> Come on guys. Contador is gonna have a big steak tonight and he'll be right back in things tomorrow.


what's in the steak, EPO, Trucker's Choice, and some Oxycontin.


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## aengbretson (Sep 17, 2009)

Yes Andy and Frank have to assault Evans tomorrow. Andy has 57 seconds and Frank only 4 on Evans right now. Andy would need one hell of a TT to ensure he stays ahead of Cadel. 

However, that gap isn't too bad for Andy! He was only 30 seconds behind Cadel in the Annecy TT of 2009! I realize that the '09 TT had a sharp climb which may have helped Andy, but Cadel is definitely a better TTer than team Frandy.

EDIT: And I have to say I was impressed with Voeckler. He looked cooked before the Izoard and turned himself inside out to stay with the Evans group. If anyone questions why he wasn't helping just find the footage of him crossing the line and immediately requiring assistance just to stay atop his bike (couldn't summon the strength to dismount!), desperately clinging to a railing and unable to do more than gasp a few words to reporters: "not right now". He may not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning this Tour, but his defense of the yellow jersey will go down in TdF history, ahead of his job in 2004.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

> What is Evans going to do when Frank attacks tomorrow?


Exactly! He'd have to chase and tow Andy along. Then Andy just has to hope he has enough of a TT in him to seal the deal. This is going to be great.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

Big question for tomorrow.

Does Andy have anything left.

How much does Cadel have left?

If Frank attacks....he's attacking Andy as well as Cadel.

Cadel only has to limit his loss to Frank to a few minutes to be OK in the ITT. Andy OTOH needs an additional 1:00 or so on Cadel to win after the ITT.

It's still Cadels race to lose.

My guess tomorrow is that Frank attacks, cadel covers and Andy cracks.

Voekler's ride today was heroic, but I think he's done.

Len


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

den bakker said:


> so did Evans so it's probably not much of a problem.
> Frank had a relatively easy ride (things considered). What is Evans going to do when Frank attacks tomorrow?


Tomorrow is an unusually short stage, 110km. If Tommy and Cadel joined forces properly, the two teams together might be enough to mark Leopard. It's difficult to say, but I think a short stage benefits BMC more than Leopard. I think we'll know the GC winner this time tomorrow.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

cityeast said:


> Tomorrow is an unusually short stage, 110km. If Tommy and Cadel joined forces properly, the two teams together might be enough to mark Leopard. It's difficult to say, but I think a short stage benefits BMC more than Leopard. I think we'll know the GC winner this time tomorrow.


Not sure the length says anything about how hard the stage is. Europcar looks very worn out by now and it's not like Evans was swamped by team mates.


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## wipeout (Jun 6, 2005)

At this point I don't think you can count Voeckler out of anything - tomorrows climbing or even in the 26 mile ITT. He has a legitimate shot at this thing!


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## aaric (Mar 10, 2011)

Len J said:


> Big question for tomorrow.
> 
> Does Andy have anything left.
> 
> ...



^^^This is spot on IMO - going to come down to how much Cadel has left in the tank...Frank looked pretty rested today.


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## DesertDoc (Apr 23, 2009)

*Finally Something to Watch*

It's been a few years since I was actually excited about watching the last few stages of a grand tour. This year 's TDF is a definite exception. 

Great dig by AS and an incredible pull from Cadel to bring down the gap. Voekler looked spent for sure, but his grit and determination are certainly inspiring.

I wish tomorrow's stage started RIGHT NOW! Can't wait to see how this tour ends.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

wipeout said:


> At this point I don't think you can count Voeckler out of anything - tomorrows climbing or even in the 26 mile ITT. He has a legitimate shot at this thing!


Without Cadel today, Voeckler would be a long way back. He has a snowball's chance in hell.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

wipeout said:


> At this point I don't think you can count Voeckler out of anything - tomorrows climbing or even in the 26 mile ITT. He has a legitimate shot at this thing!


He lost time today digging way deeper than anyone else. He'll do the same tomorrow...

and he is not as good a time trialer as Evans and even worse than Andy, so he'll lose minutes on Saturday..........so how exactly do you see him winning? A breakawy into Paris?

Len

PS...before I get called a hater, I've enjoyed his toughness and think today's stage for him was heroic, but he just hasn't demonstrated an ability to stop the time loss.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

We have been treated to a very, very special stage. And we are extremely fortunate that the outcome still hangs in the balance.

I have nothing but praise now for all the contenders.

Merci.
fc


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

I'm not sure if anyone else saw it, but Frank will probably get a warning from the race manager...it was blatantly covered on TV that he was getting towed during a bidon handover. Commentators on german television were talking of a possible 10 sec. penalty.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

cityeast said:


> I'm not sure if anyone else saw it, but Frank will probably get a warning from the race manager...it was blatantly covered on TV that he was getting towed during a bidon handover. Commentators on german television were talking of a possible 10 sec. penalty.


It would be unusual for him to get anything but a fine IME....especially this late in the race. Even, so, 10 seconds w Frank will make no difference, he is too bad an ITT'er.

Len


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## cq20 (Mar 24, 2007)

The "autobus" finished outside the time limit today. Cav was in it and has been fined 20 points. Rojas made the time limit, so Cav now holds the green jersey by a lead of 15 rather than the 35 points that he had at the start of the day.


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## jonstringer (Oct 4, 2009)

Now all Evans has to do is enjoy the tow by Frank or Andy. (I use the term "enjoy" loosely.) No one else matters, and his ITT over 26 miles will be devastating to the GC field. HOLD ON VOECKLER!!! I'm not the only person here who would like to see the impossible happen again. Finally, Leopard's tactic was great. "Andy, go for it. If you don't make it fresh-legs Frank will take it." I'm sure the meeting went something like that. Now that Frank has put aside his own agenda for Andy's benefit, he should be allowed to attack at will for his own glory.

*Would be fun if:1. Contador attacks indiscriminately
2. Frank attacks
3. TV holds onto the yellow one more day
4. Evans does none of the pace work (pay back is a b) *


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## FixThatRoadBike (Jul 28, 2006)

cq20 said:


> The "autobus" finished outside the time limit today. Cav was in it and has been fined 20 points. Rojas made the time limit, so Cav now holds the green jersey by a load of 15 rather than the 35 points that he had at the start of the day.


Wait ... what? Is this a standard practice? Or is this just making up the rules as they go along?


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

cq20 said:


> The "autobus" finished outside the time limit today. Cav was in it and has been fined 20 points. Rojas made the time limit, so Cav now holds the green jersey by a load of 15 rather than the 35 points that he had at the start of the day.


I thought missing the cut-off was disqualification.


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## cq20 (Mar 24, 2007)

FixThatRoadBike said:


> Wait ... what? Is this a standard practice? Or is this just making up the rules as they go along?


From position 81 to last (168) were in the autobus.

... and they all got time and or points fines, I believe.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Len J said:


> He lost time today digging way deeper than anyone else. He'll do the same tomorrow...
> 
> and he is not as good a time trialer as Evans and even worse than Andy, so he'll lose minutes on Saturday..........so how exactly do you see him winning? A breakawy into Paris?
> 
> ...


Heck, TV couldn't even hobble off his bike, and looked like he could barely breathe.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

cityeast said:


> I thought missing the cut-off was disqualification.


Normally yes. But the judges can elect to waive that if the rider is thought to still be able to put on a good show in the race.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

cityeast said:


> I thought missing the cut-off was disqualification.


I think the race judges can elect to penalize the group if it contains a large number of the field (which it sounds like it did?)


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## cq20 (Mar 24, 2007)

robdamanii said:


> I think the race judges can elect to penalize the group if it contains a large number of the field (which it sounds like it did?)


It al depends..... or as I saw someone comment "Today there were 88 in the trailing Group*ETTO * and 80 in the leading Group*EPO*"

NB To avoid confusion etc. the figures are correct (I think) but the comment is, of course, made in jest


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## asgelle (Apr 21, 2003)

Marc said:


> Normally yes. But the judges can elect to waive that if the rider is thought to still be able to put on a good show in the race.


Normally no. If more than 20% of the field finishes outside the time limit, the cut off is extended to include 80% plus any additional riders finishing with the same time. Being in a group of about 80, Cavendish was never in any danger of being excluded as long as he was part of that group.

The UCU rules also specify the penalty for points lost when the limit is extended.


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## Yeti guy (Feb 16, 2010)

Hmmmm, Sanchez and Contador's conversation and then disappearing makes me think there are plans, odds of these two popping????? I just don't see it. I'm a newb though.


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

That was an epic attack and ride by Andy. 60 km off the GC group! 
TV is pure grit. Honey Badger don't give a sh1t.
Great ride by Evans too. Not much of a wheelsucker.
Very bad Spanish day. I didn't see that coming.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

kbwh said:


> That was an epic attack and ride by Andy. 60 km off the GC group!
> TV is pure grit. Honey Badger don't give a sh1t.
> Great ride by Evans too. Not much of a wheelsucker.
> Very bad Spanish day. I didn't see that coming.



I wouldn't call this a great ride by Evans. He was the big loser today. I mean really, it was TDF and now he lost 2:15 to his main rival and he is now behind by a minute.

Why he let Andy go is huge mistake. He fought valiantly in the end. Great race!!

fc


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## ohvrolla (Aug 2, 2009)

Going out so early also leads the strong possibility of losing out if caught. Could have Cadel have stayed with Andy the whole way, we'll never know. Think the biggest impact against Cadel was the fact he was doing the work at the front with no help. We'll see tomorrow how both of their legs are.


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## wipeout (Jun 6, 2005)

robdamanii said:


> Without Cadel today, Voeckler would be a long way back. He has a snowball's chance in hell.


Really? Have you seen TV crack yet on any climb? I haven't.


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

francois said:


> I wouldn't call this a great ride by Evans. He was the big loser today. I mean really, it was TDF and now he lost 2:15 to his main rival and he is now behind by a minute.
> 
> Why he let Andy go is huge mistake. He fought valiantly in the end. Great race!!
> 
> fc


He was stuck between a rock and a hard place. If he gambled by trying to chase down Andy on his own and couldn't match him, he would have been toast half way up the Galibier. He was probably expecting Berty or Voeckler to bite first, but they didn't. Have domestics out front didn't help Andy that much and probably wouldn't have helped Evans.The worst thing that Cadel can have tomorrow is a repeat of today..that is the Schlecks go on the attack and no other GCs show any interest. But I really feel the Spaniards will be looking to save face, and Evans might be lucky to get a tow.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

francois said:


> I wouldn't call this a great ride by Evans. He was the big loser today. I mean really, it was TDF and now he lost 2:15 to his main rival and he is now behind by a minute.
> 
> Why he let Andy go is huge mistake. He fought valiantly in the end. Great race!!
> 
> fc


Not sure how you can say that. He'll beat Andy by more than a minute in the TT...so he limited the damage without expending as much energy as Andy did. Evans single handedly limited Andy's gain to something un-important in the final GC standings.

I think that it's possible that the big loser today was Andy......he looked really bad in that last 1,500 meters losing almost a minute of his lead. If he expended as much energy as it appears for as little gain as he got, and it ends up costing him tomorrow, then he killed his chances of the GC today.

We'll see.

len


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

wipeout said:


> Really? Have you seen TV crack yet on any climb? I haven't.


He has lost time on every stage this week, as well as the last 2 Pyrenean staages...so yea, he cracked.

len


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

francois said:


> I wouldn't call this a great ride by Evans. He was the big loser today. I mean really, it was TDF and now he lost 2:15 to his main rival and he is now behind by a minute.
> 
> Why he let Andy go is huge mistake. He fought valiantly in the end. Great race!!
> 
> fc


Was it reverting to old habits? He was probably waiting to follow Contador or another contender, but nobody else had the gas to do it. I think Evans should have taken matters into his own hands by immediately trying to follow, and he may be thinking the same thing right now. Instead, he has put himself in the usual bad position. He could still pull it out, but it will be tough with the Schlecks working together.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

nate said:


> Was it reverting to old habits? He was probably waiting to follow Contador or another contender, but nobody else had the gas to do it. I think Evans should have taken matters into his own hands by immediately trying to follow, and he may be thinking the same thing right now. Instead, he has put himself in the usual bad position. He could still pull it out, but it will be tough with the Schlecks working together.


I don't get this. Frank is not a threat unless he gets 5 minutes up the road or more tomorrow.....which Evans should be able to make sure doesn't happen. Schecks working together was a bullet they tried last week to little gain.

I think Evans did the minimum he had to do today and is perfectly positioned to win now.

Len


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

cityeast said:


> He was stuck between a rock and a hard place. If he gambled by trying to chase down Andy on his own and couldn't match him, he would have been toast half way up the Galibier. He was probably expecting Berty or Voeckler to bite first, but they didn't. Have domestics out front didn't help Andy that much and probably wouldn't have helped Evans.The worst thing that Cadel can have tomorrow is a repeat of today..that is the Schlecks go on the attack and no other GCs show any interest. But I really feel the Spaniards will be looking to save face, and Evans might be lucky to get a tow.


Absolutely agreed!

fc


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Len J said:


> Not sure how you can say that. He'll beat Andy by more than a minute in the TT...so he limited the damage without expending as much energy as Andy did. Evans single handedly limited Andy's gain to something un-important in the final GC standings.
> 
> I think that it's possible that the big loser today was Andy......he looked really bad in that last 1,500 meters losing almost a minute of his lead. If he expended as much energy as it appears for as little gain as he got, and it ends up costing him tomorrow, then he killed his chances of the GC today.
> 
> ...


Now that is a good one. Andy was the loser today. OMG!

Cadel was caught with his pants down by a truly brilliant Andy and team. Cadel was left in the front in the headwind to reduce the deficit. He did a very, very good job to fight back albeit late. But make no mistake, he is shelled and he lost 2:15 to a guy that can beat him.

Plus the Schlecks are very confident now.

Cadel is still in it but we have a real battle now.

fc


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

The people that like Evans will say that his ride today was impressive and that he singlehandedly reeled Andy back within TT striking distance.

The people that don't like Evans will say that his ride today was the boring Evans of old with no panache and an unimpressive hobble to the finish after he couldn't find any wheels to "suck." 

By the way, I hate the term "wheelsucker." Something about it makes me cringe.

Great race today. Andy, Cadel, and Tommy all went full throttle to the end of a very, very hard stage. It was good racing and I can't say anything against the performances of any of those three guys. 

For the past several years, I never thought that the first time that I saw Alberto Contador pop on a big climb in a Grand Tour and get left behind by the other GC contenders that I would feel a little bit bad for him. .


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

francois said:


> Now that is a good one. Andy was the loser today. OMG!
> 
> Cadel was caught with his pants down by a truly brilliant Andy and team. Cadel was left in the front in the headwind to reduce the deficit. He did a very, very good job to fight back albeit late. But make no mistake, he is shelled and he lost 2:15 to a guy that can beat him.
> 
> ...


We'll know tomorrow...I'm predicting that Andy losses time to Cadel...if he does, then come back and read what I wrote.

Andy had the same headwind and for a much longer time

Cadel finished much stronger than Andy, making up almost a minute on him in the last 1,500 meters, if that is shelled I'll take it.

Len


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

wipeout said:


> Really? Have you seen TV crack yet on any climb? I haven't.


He has not. He has been top 5 pretty much on every climb. It's been really surprising and I hope it doesn't happen tomorrow.

I really hope he is rewarded with a podium finish.

fc


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Len J said:


> We'll know tomorrow......
> 
> Len


Agreed. It'll be a good one. I'll be happy with any outcome as long as there's fireworks. These top guys are all worthy.

fc


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

Len J said:


> I don't get this. Frank is not a threat unless he gets 5 minutes up the road or more tomorrow.....which Evans should be able to make sure doesn't happen. Schecks working together was a bullet they tried last week to little gain.
> 
> I think Evans did the minimum he had to do today and is perfectly positioned to win now.
> 
> Len


By working together, I mean what they did today. What they've done in the past is share a brain and a finishing time _instead_ of working together.  Working together is letting one go up the road and the other rest on the wheel of their rival. If they do the same thing tomorrow, Evans is done. You are right in another comment that A. Schleck looked cooked, so we'll see what happens. 

I would much rather see Voeckler or Evans win. Voeckler because he is truly an underdog, and Evans mainly because I dislike the Schlecks. However, A. Schleck is good enough, young enough, and has a strong enough team that he could put more time into Evans tomorrow. I think it's more likely Evans will crack tomorrow than Schleck, despite how bad Schleck looked at the finish. Nobody had an easy day today!

So how much time does A. Schleck need? Another minute before the time trial, or another two?


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

francois said:


> Now that is a good one. Andy was the loser today. OMG!
> 
> Cadel was caught with his pants down by a truly brilliant Andy and team. Cadel was left in the front in the headwind to reduce the deficit. He did a very, very good job to fight back albeit late. But make no mistake, he is shelled and he lost 2:15 to a guy that can beat him.
> 
> ...


Agreed with this as well. At least four have a good chance, and I wouldn't write off Bertie just yet. Anything could happen tomorrow but almost certainly nail biting. I'd rather it not be TV as without Cadel he would have waved the white flag today.


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## Wile_E_Coyote (Jul 15, 2011)

thechriswebb said:


> Great race today. Andy, Cadel, and Tommy all went full throttle to the end of a very, very hard stage. It was good racing and I can't say anything against the performances of any of those three guys.


^ This. It's too easy to be critical for the sake of being critical. These guys were great.

I'm mostly interested in how the Schlecks and Evans will play this out tomorrow. Voeckler has no choice but do try and dig deep again if he can.


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## asciibaron (Aug 11, 2006)

Cadel limited his effort until he had to make it count keeping AS within reach tomorrow and then finishing him off in the ITT. BUT, the unknown know is how much of a thorn will Frank be to Cadel - he can mount attack after attack that Cadel MUST respond to - if Jens is up front, look for the hurt.


----------



## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

nate said:


> By working together, I mean what they did today. What they've done in the past is share a brain and a finishing time _instead_ of working together.  Working together is letting one go up the road and the other rest on the wheel of their rival. If they do the same thing tomorrow, Evans is done. You are right in another comment that A. Schleck looked cooked, so we'll see what happens.
> 
> I would much rather see Voeckler or Evans win. Voeckler because he is truly an underdog, and Evans mainly because I dislike the Schlecks. However, A. Schleck is good enough, young enough, and has a strong enough team that he could put more time into Evans tomorrow. I think it's more likely Evans will crack tomorrow than Schleck, despite how bad Schleck looked at the finish. Nobody had an easy day today!
> 
> So how much time does A. Schleck need? Another minute before the time trial, or another two?


I think he needs a minute.......but that assumes they both come to the TT with the same gas in the tank, which is the big wild card.

3 possibilities tomorrow:

1.) Andy has more left than Cadel and puts time into him
2.) They both have the same in the tank tomorrow, and neither gets time on each other
3.) Evans has more in the tank and breaks Andy.

Based on the finish today and the relative efforts expended, I think 3 is more likely than 2 and 2 is more likely than 1....but that's why they race.

Len


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## Snakebit (Mar 18, 2002)

I don't think anyone was laying behind a log today, all the logs got turned over. What we saw was all they had. Tomorrow should be great. Frank Schleck may have finished today's stage the strongest and may blow the Tour up tomorrow................if he can shake Voeckler off his wheel.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

asciibaron said:


> Cadel limited his effort until he had to make it count keeping AS within reach tomorrow and then finishing him off in the ITT. BUT, the unknown know is how much of a thorn will Frank be to Cadel - he can mount attack after attack that Cadel MUST respond to - if Jens is up front, look for the hurt.


Why must he respond? Frank need 5+ minutes on Cadel to be a threat for GC. Frank is almost a non-issue with his TT ability IMO.

len

Edit. Alpe d'huez is only 13.8K...for Frank to put 5 minutes in Cadel on that climb alone would require him to ride almost 12 to 15% faster........for the whole climb...I don't see that happening. So he would have to go early by himself like Andy did today...and Andy was onluy able to get the maximum gap up to around 4 minutees before Cadel started reeling him in.


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## erol/frost (May 30, 2004)

I took pleasure watching AC getting dropped today. And, at the same time, it was a slightly sad sight too as someone above said


----------



## rogger (Aug 19, 2005)

cityeast said:


> I thought missing the cut-off was disqualification.


Didn't happen in the 2001 Colmar to Pontarlier stage either.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

Len J said:


> Why must he respond? Frank need 5+ minutes on Cadel to be a threat for GC. Frank is almost a non-issue with his TT ability IMO.
> 
> len


in 09 Frank lost 2m34 to contador on 40km. at the end of the tour. 
edited. 
Would Evans really be 2 and a half minute faster than an 09 Contador?


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

wipeout said:


> Really? Have you seen TV crack yet on any climb? I haven't.


Yeah, I have seen him crack. He's consistently lost time over each mountain stage. Maybe he didn't shatter and fall off the back, but he's consistently lost time, as evidenced by his 15 second lead after today.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

den bakker said:


> in 09 Frank lost 2m34 to contador on 40km. at the end of the tour.
> edited.
> Would Evans really be 2 and a half minute faster than an 09 Contador?


You are correct and I am incorrect...I suspect it's more like 3 minutes than 5.

Len


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## CrazyCuz2K (Sep 8, 2009)

Len,

I think you're overdoing the ITT, yes Cadel is a better TT'er than both Andy and Frank but not 5 minutes faster than Frank more like 3 minutes faster at 26 miles and probably between 1 - 1:30 faster than Andy. Of the top 8 GCer's, Frank looked like he had the freshest legs.

Tomorrow, Leopard Trek are going to do the same thing, they'll have Jens (who took it easy at the end) push it on le Col du Galibier and have two riders in the break (Fulsang/Cancellara). Frank will attack an already tired field on the harder steeper side of the Col and open up a large gap on le peleton. Andy will mark (wheelsuck) Evans the whole time all the way up Alpe-D'Huez and have Evans chase. The biggest question is if the rest of the GC contenders work with Evans to chase or not... and give him a break as he work extraordinarily hard today because no one could/would lend him a hand. There's only 4 GC riders in legitamate contentions for the maillot jaune, the rest are protecting their positions and looking for podium finishes so they may not help Cadel, just mark him and try to gain time on him as he is 4th. The only riders I see helping Cadel would be Europcar, but even they couldn't help him today because they just didn't have the legs. I can't see them being any better tomorrow after 10 days of defending the maillot jaune. 

Should be incredibly exciting!!! Chapaeu to all the top GC riders as they've made this one of the most intriguing Tours in a while where strategy plays such an incredible role with such a level playing field. Having two GC contenders on the same team makes the strategem even more intriguing... makes you wonder how well Radioshack could have competed with there 4/5 horses if they weren't caught in 'ALL' the crashes.


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## boleiro (Jun 11, 2010)

Thank you Andy for Attacking. While its been an intriguing TDF so far with such an open field, I've felt the GC pack has been playing it too safe. You have to try to win, too many of the leaders have been defensive and shy to really attack the group. Congrats to AS for a brave and very risky move to finally add some heat to this tour.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

CrazyCuz2K said:


> Len,
> 
> I think you're overdoing the ITT, yes Cadel is a better TT'er than both Andy and Frank but not 5 minutes faster than Frank more like 3 minutes faster at 26 miles and probably between 1 - 1:30 faster than Andy. Of the top 8 GCer's, Frank looked like he had the freshest legs.
> 
> ...


I agree with this. Cadel probably knows how much lead he is likely to be able to overcome in the ITT against both Andy and Frank. But in the heat of the battle, he can't take huge gambles. It's usually better to mark a move right away than to do all the work to chase it down later. Frank will almost certainly try to get away on the Galibier, Cadel would be wise to cover it immediately. If Frank continues to surge early in the stage, then Cadel has to make a choice. As far as I know, he's more of a diesel than a turbo, so repeated accelerations will wear on him. If Frank continues to attack on the Galibier, he may have to let it go and wait till the Alpe to turn on the diesel and limit his losses, just like today. He's still in pretty good shape, but I don't think he can ride conservatively tomorrow.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Frank should have taken off earlier ... way earlier on the last climb. He dropped them all with just a few yards to go. He could have gained significant time without pulling the chasers towards Andy.

fc


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

jonstringer said:


> Now all Evans has to do is enjoy the tow by Frank or Andy. (I use the term "enjoy" loosely.) No one else matters, and his ITT over 26 miles will be devastating to the GC field. HOLD ON VOECKLER!!! I'm not the only person here who would like to see the impossible happen again. Finally, Leopard's tactic was great. "Andy, go for it. If you don't make it fresh-legs Frank will take it." I'm sure the meeting went something like that. Now that Frank has put aside his own agenda for Andy's benefit, he should be allowed to attack at will for his own glory.
> 
> *Would be fun if:1. Contador attacks indiscriminately
> 2. Frank attacks
> ...


I wonder if Evans would feel so confident that he can take a minute out of Andy in ITT with 2,000 ft elevation change. Maybe. I would try to get a bit closer, and definitely not let Frank get away with anything.

Andy and Frank won't tow anyone though - they have to attack Evans, and hope that Voeckler gets dropped in the process.

The podium of Andy, Cadel and Frank looks quite possible, something that looked very unlikely yesterday.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

weltyed said:


> Haven't seen Stage 17, but I have seen some results. Sounds like sprinters haven't been notified that they aren't supposed to win stages with climbs. Maybe they translated the Norwegian Tous Fous du Tour wrong. Also, reading some discussions of that 20 hour descent it sounded like the roads were rain-slicked, but I'm watching at kilometer52 and it looks like nothing but sun. If that sticks, the riders must have been taking some extreme chances. And that's what makes this race great. How far will you go to win (let's not take this doping)? Voeckler showed a few issues with his "stellar descending capapbilities," and I hear Sanchez pulled a sweet endo. As long as its not and endo-ver easy.
> 
> Contador made some digs, but it looks like they didn't stick. Which isn't like him. I'm not sure if he really doesn't have it or the other GC guys are just working together to cover it. Evans has been a man on a mission, and the Schlecks have been...the Schlecks. I wonder if Bjrne Riis is happy he doesn't have to deal with them, even though Conti is painted into a corner.
> 
> ...


My faith in Andy Schleck is fully restored after today's amazing performance. He won with panache of a true champion, it took a lot of balls to attack the way he did and make it stick! Nobody could even respond when he went, or they must have thought it was doomed to begin with.

Awesome, awesome stage. Poor Cuddles has to do a lot of work himself, as often is the case. I will be happy if either of those two guys win, they were both quite instrumental and active - I am now rooting for Andy, and against Voeckler, his breakaway benefited tremendously from a crash behind and I am opposed to tour race winners decided basically due to a crash.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Andy Schleck was awesome today. I am amazed that he had it in him to commit himself 100% and he proved me 100% wrong. I am still far from being a fan and never will be, he simply annoys me beyond words. But credit where credit is due - today he was not the world's most boring cycle racer.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

FixThatRoadBike said:


> Wait ... what? Is this a standard practice? Or is this just making up the rules as they go along?


I thought if a certain fraction of peloton was outside of the time limit they could not be eliminated. I also think it's bogus to take points off Cav for being in that huge autobus, even if he was outside of timelimit (so was Chavanel, Cancellara, Martin, Hushovd, Gilbert etc.). 20 points is a bit too harsh - just make them pay money. It seems almost as if they deliberately trying to stack the race for points to be a bit more competitive in Paris.

Schleck may win the polka dot jersey if he does well tomorrow though (Vanendert and Sanchez are too high on GC to be allowed in breakaways). This may be interesting


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## krott5333 (Oct 2, 2009)

that was the best and most exciting stage thus far


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

cityeast said:


> Have domestics out front didn't help Andy that much and probably wouldn't have helped Evans.


I think Montfort did a great job. He paced Andy down the descent really well. The commentators said the he was a good descender and they barely lost anytime on the descent. I thin they actually put at least 30 sec if not a whole minute.

Then on the "flat", lost no time at all... Pootshuma was more of a "welcome to Poosthuma/thank you for visiting" kind of a deal.

Andy needs at least another minute to make the ITT interesting and about 2 mins to have clinch it. I half agree with Len that frank is a really awful but he needs to be +3:00 by tomorrows end to have any chance. I'll give props to AC, he sure animated and rode like the defending champ.

FYI, Cadel took 45 sec in the last 3km, not 1min in 1.5k. I know because i timed the time gain between 4km to 3km to go (3:15 -> 3:00 gap)  So it was 3:00 -> 2:15 in the last 3 km.


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## ohvrolla (Aug 2, 2009)

albert owen said:


> Andy Schleck was awesome today. I am amazed that he had it in him to commit himself 100% and he proved me 100% wrong. I am still far from being a fan and never will be, he simply annoys me beyond words. But credit where credit is due - today he was not the world's most boring cycle racer.


If he had any desire at all to win he definitely had to man up and make a bold attack today. Waiting until the 2km mark trying to get 30 seconds wasn't going to win it. Incredible ride and it will be interesting to see the legs of Andy and Cadel tomorrow. One with a loooong breakaway on a mountain stage and one who towed the peloton behind him gaining time back.


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## asgelle (Apr 21, 2003)

55x11 said:


> I thought if a certain fraction of peloton was outside of the time limit they could not be eliminated. I also think it's bogus to take points off Cav for being in that huge autobus, even if he was outside of timelimit (so was Chavanel, Cancellara, Martin, Hushovd, Gilbert etc.).


A check of the rules and results reveals all. If more than 20% of the field is outside the time limit, the limit is extended to include 80% of the field plus all riders finishing with the same time as the final group. The rules also call for all riders outside the time limit to lose points equal to what is awarded to the winner, 2.6.032. Even a cursory check of the results would show that all riders in the final grupetto lost 20 points.

It would be hard to apply one rule to extend the time cut and then ignore one referring to that extension, the deduction of points.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

asgelle said:


> Even a cursory check of the results would show that all riders in the final grupetto lost 20 points.


There are nearly 50 riders with negative points, and 16 with -20 points! It would have been a disaster to kick 49 riders off the Tour with 3 stages to go. Well played to Rojas for getting the equivalent of a stage win's worth of points over Cavendish today!


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## Rajdog (Dec 9, 2009)

*Maybe, but...*



godot said:


> Andy will drop a chain, then complain that shifting is hard and shouldn't be part of the tour.


I'm pretty sure he could drop a chain, complain for 20 min. and STILL beat your ace to the top...


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

francois said:


> I wouldn't call this a great ride by Evans. He was the big loser today. I mean really, it was TDF and now he lost 2:15 to his main rival and he is now behind by a minute.
> 
> Why he let Andy go is huge mistake. He fought valiantly in the end. Great race!!
> 
> fc


While there's no doubt in my mind that Cadel was a loser today, I disagree that letting Andy go was a big mistake by Cadel. It was a calculated gamble, and probably the right one. Andy attacked from 60K out into a headwind. At the point where Andy attacked, Cadel had few teammates around him, but Sanchez, Basso, Voeckler, and Contador were still there, all with teammates. Cadel can't cover every attack; that's a sure way to lose. He calculated that the teammates of the other contenders would make the chase, and they did. They were not very effective, but Cadel couldn't have predicted that. He calculated that other contenders would ride hard when their teammates gave out. None of them could, but again, Cadel couldn't have predicted that. I think he made a sensible choice, not a mistake. It turned out badly when Andy turned out to be stronger than anyone expected--who among us wasn't surprised when the lead stretched out to 4:30--and nearly everyone else turned out to be weaker than expected--who among us predicted that Contador and Sanchez would crack and that Basso would do nothing to bring Andy back. And when Cadel's calculated risk went bad, he went to the front with 10K to go and limited the damage as best he could, which was pretty damn good. I'm not a big Cadel fan, but I think he rode a very smart race, very tough-minded.


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## Buzzard (Sep 7, 2004)

francois said:


> Frank should have taken off earlier ... way earlier on the last climb. He dropped them all with just a few yards to go. He could have gained significant time without pulling the chasers towards Andy.
> 
> fc


You're probably right, but that's a huge risk. Leopard played it perfect today. I think if Frank or Andy can gap Cadel tomorrow, Cadel is finished. Schlecks will ground pound Cadel tomorrow. Cadel has to find the legs to play offense or he's toast. 

What an awesome stage! The next couple of days should be quite entertaining as well.


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## idon'tknow (Jan 6, 2007)

francois said:


> Frank should have taken off earlier ... way earlier on the last climb. He dropped them all with just a few yards to go. He could have gained significant time without pulling the chasers towards Andy.
> 
> fc


I think Frank didn't want to help anyone get closer to Andy, and he was thinking about tomorrow. Everyone looked cooked, ...except Frank. Tomorrow, if Frank attacks and Andy gets towed by Evans, Evans will be hurting that much more then Andy on the TT. 

This was a brilliant move by the Schlecks.


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## Swish (Jul 31, 2004)

Len J said:


> He lost time today digging way deeper than anyone else. He'll do the same tomorrow...
> 
> and he is not as good a time trialer as Evans and even worse than Andy, so he'll lose minutes on Saturday..........so how exactly do you see him winning? A breakawy into Paris?
> 
> ...


He was said to be toast long before the big mountains, yet here he is, still in yellow. I think that shows quite an ability to stop time loss on all but one of the contenders. As we've seen before, the yellow jersey can carry the wearer and his team far. I don't think he'll keep the maillot jaune in Paris, but I do feel he's still gonna make it very close.

Btw wonderful stage today, Cadel should've taken the initiative earlier..Contador was cooked so couldn't do anything. It's Cadel's tour to lose imo, He needs to be more aggressive, plot his own course instead of just being reactive.


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## paredown (Oct 18, 2006)

aengbretson said:


> And I have to say I was impressed with Voeckler. He looked cooked before the Izoard and turned himself inside out to stay with the Evans group. If anyone questions why he wasn't helping just find the footage of him crossing the line and immediately requiring assistance just to stay atop his bike (couldn't summon the strength to dismount!), desperately clinging to a railing and unable to do more than gasp a few words to reporters: "not right now". He may not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning this Tour, but his defense of the yellow jersey will go down in TdF history, ahead of his job in 2004.


This--having ridden to the point of having to be held up at the end of a hill climb--I know this feeling but it was x1000. TV was so far into the red zone I surprised he didn't actually black out as he crossed the line. You could see how toasted he was when he tried to make an effort close to the top (prolly when he got word that he could stay in yellow) and Cadel had to get take over the lead again....


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

AJL said:


> I predict that this stage will end the "Tour de Stare" amongst the GC contenders. Voeckler will lose the yeller jersery (unless some kind of miracle occurs) and Contador, hungry for at least a podium spot, will put time into everyone in the GC.


Late to the party but...

OK, this stage ended the "Tour de Stare", aside from that, I was dead wrong. Ballsy move by A.Schleck - simply an awesome assault. Anyone who has called Cadel Evans a wheelsucker has been put in their place - he gained 1&1/2 to 2 minutes on Schleck - mainly on his own. Finally, Voeckler turned himself inside out to to keep the maillot jaune - chapeau to great display of suffering by the Frenchman!


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Len J said:


> ...
> I think that it's possible that the big loser today was Andy......he looked really bad in that last 1,500 meters losing almost a minute of his lead. ...
> 
> len


I'll have to call this one. Andy won the stage, won back the hearts of racing fans, put himself in a position to win the TDF. This was one of the ballsiest, most successful attacks in a while. Win!

fc


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