# Can LA beat AC in 2010?



## sbindra (Oct 18, 2004)

So I bet AC does not go with Team Radioshack. Can LA beat AC in 2010 if he's got a team of dedicated domestiques, just like Postal/Discovery, working for him as the unqualified leader the entire race?

Was it that LA couldn't go, or LA wouldn't go? There were a couple of times he was gapped and he came back pretty strong.


----------



## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

sbindra said:


> Was it that LA couldn't go, or LA wouldn't go? There were a couple of times he was gapped and he came back pretty strong.


In the current environment it doesn't appear so.

Contador has solidified his position as being a notch above the rest in a GT when he's in top shape, and Armstrong basically looks like the ~10-15 other guys in professional cycling that can challenge for the podium in a GT if everything goes right for him.


----------



## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

sbindra said:


> Can LA beat AC in 2010 if he's got a team of dedicated domestiques, just like Postal/Discovery, working for him as the unqualified leader the entire race?


Um...no.


----------



## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Can of worms here...


----------



## ksanbon (Jul 19, 2008)

No.
It didn't appear to me that AC rode close to 100% this year


----------



## grrrah (Jul 22, 2005)

I think the only way is if Levi, Klodie, etc. put constant attacks on him, and he doesn't have a good DS or smarts about which attacks to follow, and starts going after all of them.

Even then, AC still might be able to hang.


----------



## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

ksanbon said:


> No.
> It didn't appear to me that AC rode close to 100% this year


And Armstrong could have ended up as low as 6th if his team hadn't got him time in the TTT and when the split occurred in the wind.

Then you figure in other guys that have shown they can ride at that level and for some reason bombed in this TdF (e.g. Evans, Menchov, Sastre), or simply weren't in the race even if AC faulters you got to figure small odds it will be Armstrong who necessarily picks up the scraps (e.g. this year it would have been A. Schleck).


----------



## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

And Conti will lose the team time trial.


----------



## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Lance will have opportunities but the head to head strength battle is a mismatch. So Lance needs his entire team against Contador.

It's gonna hinge on the presence and distance of the TTT since Contador's team will get schooled.

fc


----------



## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

grrrah said:


> I think the only way is if Levi, Klodie, etc. put constant attacks on him, and he doesn't have a good DS or smarts about which attacks to follow, and starts going after all of them.
> 
> Even then, AC still might be able to hang.


Assuming there are a sufficient number of mountain top finishes, Contador won't need to just hang, he'll just drop all of them. It's quite conceivable he could have won this Tour by a signficantly larger gap if he'd gone for it on either of the last two mountain stages. Whenever he tried to drop riders this Tour, he did it.


----------



## wipeout (Jun 6, 2005)

sbindra said:


> Can LA beat AC in 2010 if he's got a team of dedicated domestiques, just like Postal/Discovery, working for him as the unqualified leader the entire race?


Yes, it is possible.


----------



## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

dagger said:


> And Conti will lose the team time trial.


Which is a huge unknown, starting with whether there will even be one or not.


----------



## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

anything is possible.. conti might crash,flat tire,bad day then LA can beat him but wont win tdf in 2010...


----------



## android (Nov 20, 2007)

A man's gotta know his limitations.

Just my opinion, but it appeared to me that Lance didn't quite know just how hard he could go after the comeback, so he always stayed on the conservative side. Since he didn't crack or blow up, we know he didn't go into the red zone.

I think he's going to spend the next year figuring out *exactly* what he can and can't do. If we see him in the TdF again, he's probably decided he has a real chance of winning again.

He's admitted that AC is stronger. But this is bicycle racing and it's a well known fact that the strongest rider doesn't always win. You need strength, tactical smarts and the situational awareness to bring it all together.


----------



## JohnnyTooBad (Apr 5, 2004)

I think, if LA has a strong enough team, they could play to AC's weakness, which is tactics, and could start attacking the crap out of him in the mountains to wear him down. Make him more tired for the ITT and the mountain finishes. It's hard to say how strong either of them were at this year's TdF, because the only time AC was really attacked was on stage 20, by 1 guy. He didn't have the strongest guys in the GC hammering away at him. And same sort of goes for LA. Yeah, AC made some time in the mountains on those 2 breaks, but LA didn't try to keep up because he was playing for the team.

Basically, who knows. And it also depends on whether LA can get some of his time trialing prowess back. If AC takes a minute+ out of LA in the ITT, Lance would be screwed, unless he can hit back on the TTT.


----------



## LWP (Jun 6, 2006)

Of course he _can_ beat him. Anything can happen. But, outside of something unexpected/unlucky happening to AC, you have to think it's unlikely. The difference in their strength looked like a lot for a 37 year old to make up on a 26 year old. The mental aspect is important and I'd probably give the edge to Lance in that area but, at the end of the day, if AC can put the hammer down and go and Lance can't the gap will just keep getting bigger until it's too big to think his way across. 
I think AC is probably going to have a lot more to worry about from Andy Schleck next year than Lance. If Andy follows through with his promise and works on the TT between now and then and Frank works on getting himself a little closer to Andy in strength everybody else could be in trouble. 
As a fan of Lance, the rider (_I really don't care about interview-attitudes and all that other stuff people like to throw up as proof that their most-hated sports figure sucks_) it would be kinda cool to see him win one during his return to the sport. As a person who watched the race, I'm not prepared to risk money on it happening.


----------



## Pablo (Jul 7, 2004)

LA will be older and AC will be stronger and more experienced. Maybe LA can will if he sends a one of his "gueras" to distract the Spaniard.


----------



## alias33 (Sep 15, 2008)

how is lance "unqualified?" that sounds like bs to me


----------



## coreyb (Aug 4, 2003)

Dwayne Barry said:


> In the current environment it doesn't appear so.
> 
> Contador has solidified his position as being a notch above the rest in a GT when he's in top shape, and Armstrong basically looks like the ~10-15 other guys in professional cycling that can challenge for the podium in a GT if everything goes right for him.


Agreed. I think LA will potentially look better next year(fully into training cycle + hopefully no mid season injuries), but doubt that he will be sufficiently improved


----------



## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

LWP said:


> Of course he _can_ beat him. Anything can happen. But, outside of something unexpected/unlucky happening to AC, you have to think it's unlikely.


Right, that's really what I was implying in my response. Lance is one of maybe 10-15 guys in professional cycling that could win a GT at this time, assuming something unexpected happens to Contador.

For two years now, Contador has shown no one else can reach his level (although I didn't think until this Tour he really looked untouchable).


----------



## Ride-Fly (Mar 27, 2002)

*Does anyone know how LA in his prime ranks with AC now??*

I wonder if LA even in his prime can hang with AC in the climbs. Seems like AC is on another planet. That being said, I would love to see LA win another Tour!!!


----------



## ping771 (Apr 10, 2006)

I know everyone here is just speculating, but come on, the 09 tour is barely a day over, and we're already talking about the 2010 tour? 

We have no idea what team Contador will ride for next year, so we have no idea what kind of support he'll be getting.

As far as Radioshack, even though we presume that Levi and Horner will be on board, it's not 100% certain. I'm sure Trek is loving the idea of putting the "Radioshack" logo on their bikes.:nonod:


----------



## philippec (Jun 16, 2002)

francois said:


> since Contador's team will get schooled.
> 
> fc


...or not since we don't know the composition of his team yet!


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

Anything's possible, I guess, but considering AC showed he can outclimb and out-TT him, he's got a lot of work to do (unless he's counting on the wind creating a 30-minute break).

TTT could be a factor, but who knows if they'll include it or which team AC will be on. If he's on Garmin, it stands to reason he'd be OK.

I think the biggest variable is Lance's focus and his contract with Radio Shack. It says he's going to be racing marathons and triathlons for them, too, so it would make a big difference how seriously he trains for running and swimming. I can't imagine he can train effectively enough for the Tour to beat Contador if he's also spending time training for triathlons with the intention of seriously competing. I could be wrong, though.


----------



## LWP (Jun 6, 2006)

ping771 said:


> We have no idea what team Contador will ride for next year, so we have no idea what kind of support he'll be getting.


Well, if his performance this year is the indicator, all his team has to do is not let anyone important sneak away in a break and keep him in food and drink and he pretty much takes care of the rest himself. The only other way I can see a team hurting him is in the TTT... and then only if there is one.


----------



## pr0230 (Jun 4, 2004)

*what about Andy!*

The real question is, can he beat Andy and ****adoor.... 

Other wise he will place third again.... 

Lances bigest advantages are: Experience and possible and the endurance of a mature rider... There is going to be a short window for this. 2010 maybe 2011... 

Probably just next year... 

Lance obviously does not have the kick AC has... 
Andy so far can not time trial.... YET... 

Lance will have to have a team that can tempo the pace where Andy & AC will only have few attacks... AC showed some exposure at ventux, he was at the edge... Lance needs to keep both of then there.... 

As a master tactition, Lance will prbably will only attack 3 times in the whole tour next year... He will have to make each one count... This is his big advantage... Possibly his only...


----------



## California L33 (Jan 20, 2006)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Assuming there are a sufficient number of mountain top finishes, Contador won't need to just hang, he'll just drop all of them. It's quite conceivable he could have won this Tour by a signficantly larger gap if he'd gone for it on either of the last two mountain stages. Whenever he tried to drop riders this Tour, he did it.


He dropped Kloden. He didn't drop the Schlecks. If Contador doesn't get smarter, he'll 'prove himself' right out of yellow next year.


----------



## lousylegs (Jul 15, 2005)

android said:


> A man's gotta know his limitations.
> 
> Just my opinion, but it appeared to me that Lance didn't quite know just how hard he could go after the comeback, so he always stayed on the conservative side. Since he didn't crack or blow up, we know he didn't go into the red zone.
> 
> ...


Didn't Lance admit that he blew up on the very first mountain top finish this year?


----------



## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

jptaylorsg said:


> I think the biggest variable is Lance's focus and his contract with Radio Shack. It says he's going to be racing marathons and triathlons for them, too, so it would make a big difference how seriously he trains for running and swimming. I can't imagine he can train effectively enough for the Tour to beat Contador if he's also spending time training for triathlons with the intention of seriously competing. I could be wrong, though.


The mixed conditioning could help his overall fitness and maybe even help him. Swimming would certainly help is core and upper body while running would increase his strength to compliment cycling. He would really need to be on the bike a lot as well of course..


----------



## California L33 (Jan 20, 2006)

Cycling is a team sport, and AC has shown his ability to make mistake after mistake, winning in spite of inattention and dumb moves. 

I'd like to see Lance win, but it'll still be a long shot. He'll need a super team, Johan, and and AC who hasn't learned anything.


----------



## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

California L33 said:


> He dropped Kloden. He didn't drop the Schlecks. If Contador doesn't get smarter, he'll 'prove himself' right out of yellow next year.


The only time he didn't drop the Shlecks when he tried was when he made one aborted attack.


----------



## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

I'd say probably not, but it will obviously depend on the teams that each respective member has. Astana was a power house. If anyone had to win it alone, obviously Conti could probably do that compared to other riders, but this isn't quite the case. 

Will Team Radio Shack be any good? Assuming AC goes to Caisse d'Epargne, will they be any good next year?


----------



## Italophile (Jun 11, 2004)

android said:


> A man's gotta know his limitations.
> 
> Just my opinion, but it appeared to me that Lance didn't quite know just how hard he could go after the comeback, so he always stayed on the conservative side. Since he didn't crack or blow up, we know he didn't go into the red zone.
> 
> ...


These are all very good observations. Contador has displayed little understanding of the situational awareness that Lance exhibits daily during the Tour. That is a problem for AC, but not as big as the problem that LA faces: Father Time.


----------



## Italophile (Jun 11, 2004)

francois said:


> It's gonna hinge on the presence and distance of the TTT since Contador's team will get schooled.


Oh, I don't know. I can imagine a Caisse d'Epargne team headed by AC doing pretty dang well in the TTT. And, seriously, who is Columbia going to put up for GC next year? Wouldn't they be wise to go after Contador? That team could stay with a Radio Shack squad, too, methinks.

But it will all come down to the ITT and the mountains, as always, and AC will gain minutes over LA in the high country, while holding his own in the TT.

Lance will be struggling next year to regain his podium place. AC and Andy Schleck will be joined by improved young riders like Nibali and Kreuziger, and the old man will have to leap over all of them to get that top step. That is a very, very tall order.


----------



## Prolene (Jul 30, 2006)

Even LA admitted on a CNN interview that the strongest man has always won the TDF, this year included. It's difficult to imagine LA being more fit than AC next year.


----------



## mendo (Apr 18, 2007)

When do they release next year's course? Radio Shack could be a powerhouse in a TTT if they have one (Taylor Phinney!), and that could mean a couple of minutes,

But no, Lance can't match Contador or A. Schleck in the mountains. Or that's how it looks at this point.


----------



## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

*The 3 Things Lance Needs to Beat AC in 2010.*

1. TTT is a Must. The 2010 TdF needs to have a TTT at least as long as this year's. There he can grab a minute, maybe two, against Contador. Unless Saxo Bank or Garmin sign Contador -- a minute or two gain is realistic.

2. Get the Old ITT Form Back. The 2010 TdF needs a long, flat ITT similar to the ITT stage Levi won in 2007. That's the profile that suits Lance. And Lance himself has to dramatically improve on the ITT. His 2009 ProTour ITT performances in Solvang, Cinque Terre (he basically spinned around Rome so throw that out), Monaco and Annecy were sub-standard historically speaking for Lance. If he can get himself back to a 2005 ITT performance level -- HUGE if -- then he comes close to canceling out AC's gains on the ITT. 

3. Limit Losses on the Mountains. Typically on these mountain stages the lead GC guy attacking claims 10 seconds for every km he's ahead. That's not a lot. Lance needs to cede no more than 30 seconds on each of the inevitable 3 or possibly 4 mountain-top finishes -- so figure he loses 2 minutes on the climbs to AC in the aggregate. 

4. Summary. So if Lance can pick up close to two minutes on the TTT, cancel out AC's ITT gains with similar performances by Lance, and lose about two minutes on the climbs, it's damn close. Then it comes down to mind games, being in the right place, not getting gapped. Remember in the 2009 TdF Lance picked up 41 seconds in stage 3 and another 4 seconds in stage 19 -- basically 45 free seconds.


----------



## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

mendo said:


> But no, Lance can't match Contador or A. Schleck in the mountains. Or that's how it looks at this point.


I think we should keep in mind A. Shleck had an exceptional ride this year, he nearly matched Armstrong and other TT "specialists" in their event. You've got to wonder if this was an exceptional performance by him, as much as say, Evans was having an off year.

If you look at cycling the last couple of years, Contador is in a league of his own and then there are maybe 10-15 guys who can podium/win a GT given how everything shakes out. I think it's too early to say A. Schleck has lifted himself above that scrum.


----------



## hac (May 27, 2009)

ZoSoSwiM said:


> The mixed conditioning could help his overall fitness and maybe even help him. Swimming would certainly help is core and upper body while running would increase his strength to compliment cycling. He would really need to be on the bike a lot as well of course..


Disagree. The only way he stays anywhere near competitive for next year's Tour is if he dedicates all of his time to cycling specific training -- you know, kinda like he did from '99 - '05. Recall, that one of the major reasons given for Lance's post cancer improvement in the mountains was his reduced weight (13 - 15 lbs.??, something like that). The weight he lost wasn't baby fat. It was the upper body musculature he gained from all the swimming during his triathlon years.

To challenge in the next Tour LA needs to improve both his climbing and TT performance. The idea that LA can do that while also putting in significant time swimming and running in order to compete in triathlons at some semblance of a high level seems fanciful at best. 

The Radio Shack press release talking about running and tri's, and '10 Tour was truly puzzling.


----------



## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

> These are all very good observations. Contador has displayed little understanding of the situational awareness that Lance exhibits daily during the Tour.


Seems to me Contador had great situational awareness. I mean he figured out that Brunel's plan didn't include him winning the TDF and flipped the script as they say on Versus. 

Contador and Andy Schleck were practically toying with the rest of the rest of the field on Saturday.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

fornaca68 said:


> 3. Limit Losses on the Mountains. Typically on these mountain stages the lead GC guy attacking claims 10 seconds for every km he's ahead. That's not a lot. Lance needs to cede no more than 30 seconds on each of the inevitable 3 or possibly 4 mountain-top finishes -- so figure he loses 2 minutes on the climbs to AC in the aggregate.



Please explain your math. The way it's written, it looks like you're suggesting that if a rider finishes a stage 1 km ahead of a competitor, he only gains 10 seconds on him. I must be misunderstanding you, because that's ludicrous.


----------



## terzo rene (Mar 23, 2002)

Lance already had an entire team working for him this year, with the exception of Contador.

It really depends on the course - if ASO wants another LA win they can arrange it by coming up with an even more watered down course than this year with a 150km TTT. But if there are 4 mountain top finishes on tough climbs then LA is cooked.

to the extent LA follows through on the press release multi sport talk he has no chance anyway. Any time spent on other sports will directly reduce his cycling performance.

I love all the tactical talk of multiple guys attacking Contador in the mountains to concoct a win. How are those multiple guys' attacks are going to matter to a rider who drops them all - and gains 30 seconds in the first km - with his first counter attack? If they go early every other contender's team in the race will bring them back after they hang out front and fry for a while.


----------



## UpTheRoad (Jul 27, 2009)

grrrah said:


> I think the only way is if *Levi*, Klodie, etc. *put constant attacks *on him,


You lost me there.


----------



## smbrum (Jul 9, 2008)

if contador races the tour in 2010, the only person that can beat him is....him. his efforts, or lack thereof, shown he is on a completely different level than any other current rider.


----------



## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

No. Contador is still improving and he needed nowhere near 100% of his ability to win this year.


----------



## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

jptaylorsg said:


> I think the biggest variable is Lance's focus and his contract with Radio Shack. It says he's going to be racing marathons and triathlons for them, too, so it would make a big difference how seriously he trains for running and swimming. I can't imagine he can train effectively enough for the Tour to beat Contador if he's also spending time training for triathlons with the intention of seriously competing. I could be wrong, though.


If Armstrong is swimming that's gonna add some upper body weight. Not good for contesting a Tour against Contador and Schleck.


----------



## PMC (Jan 29, 2004)

It is nice to think about from a "Go USA" point of view but to think that a 38 year old rider (who will be pushing 39) has any shot at winning the tour is not being realistic.

The only reason he didn't lose by more this year is because they were on the same team and there were no real attacks on Vontoux. Next years tour will be different but I don't see the results being any better for LA assuming the top guys don't get taken out in a crash or something along those lines. 

Mano-a-mano I don't think it can happen, those days are gone for good.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

Right, and it will affect his fitness in ways that might be beneficial to him overall, but not necessarily as a bike racer.

I just don't expect someone to be able to win the TDF - against riders who beats him this year - without having a training regimen that is very specific to cycling.


----------



## JohnHemlock (Jul 15, 2006)

ksanbon said:


> No.
> It didn't appear to me that AC rode close to 100% this year


+1. He was never in any difficulty in the Alps whatsoever.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

pr0230 said:


> AC showed some exposure at ventux, he was at the edge... Lance needs to keep both of then there....


You must have watched a different stage than I did. The only thing that kept Contador from riding away from everyone except Andy Schleck is that he didn't need to attack, and A. Schleck kept breaking off his attacks when he saw that he couldn't shake Contador and brother Frank couldn't follow the attacks.

Contador breezed up the mountain under very little pressure.


----------



## Farmer Tan (Jan 25, 2009)

ping771 said:


> We have no idea what team Contador will ride for next year, so we have no idea what kind of support he'll be getting.
> 
> 
> > Indeed.
> ...


----------



## lucer0 (Apr 13, 2007)

I only saw two serious attacks by AC this year - Verbier where he dropped everyone, and the maligned and quickly-abandoned one where he dropped Kloden. The rest of the time he was perfectly content to sit on a wheel and stall. Now imagine if he was attacking on every climb - you think a 38 year old could keep up? LA has already proven he can't time trial as well anymore. If Radio Shack has a solid squad they might make up some time in the TTT, but not enough.


----------



## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Italophile said:


> These are all very good observations. Contador has displayed little understanding of the situational awareness that Lance exhibits daily during the Tour. That is a problem for AC, but not as big as the problem that LA faces: Father Time.


AC does lose seconds here and there, but it really doesn't matter. Had AC been given free reign, assuming team support, he would have easily put 10 minutes into Armstrong this year. So long as AC gets on a decent team next year (i.e. they don't lose five minutes in the TTT, etc.), then it will be his race to lose.


And, FWIW - I do hope the ASO goes with a prologue and a nice 50-60km 'power-man's' ITT next year (no categorized climbs!) and keeps the TTT.


----------



## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Gotta be kidding me. The real threat will be the Schlecks -- I use the plural since they will work in tandem to crack Contador with Andy obviously being the leader. His time trialing improved immensely in just one year and likely to continue on the rise.


----------



## Snakebitten (Jun 26, 2008)

From the way it looked this year NO. Buttt, LA didnt get full training and did suffer a severe injury so Ill give him the benefit that he will be better with a full years prep. AC beating "better" no one will know till the next TDF is done. It may just come down to the teams next year. The one that takes care of their respective GC contender best will win. Cant count either one out.

One things for sure. Next years TV rating will be phenominal as this has developed into the Thrilla in Manilla type of air around cycling. Wish LA was doing the Giro so we could see a preview of him and AC battling it out but LA is doing the Cali race instead


----------



## Snakebitten (Jun 26, 2008)

Sorry double post.......:blush2:


----------



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

jptaylorsg said:


> Right, and it will affect his fitness in ways that might be beneficial to him overall, but not necessarily as a bike racer.
> 
> I just don't expect someone to be able to win the TDF - against riders who beats him this year - without having a training regimen that is very specific to cycling.



I wondered here in another thread about the same thing. Another poster stated he's not slated to do marathons/Tri's until after TdF.

That said, he has a hell of a job getting prepped, ahead of him. He'll be knocking on door number 39 by this time next year.


----------



## The_Boy (Oct 25, 2005)

I didn't read through all 3 pages, so if this has been mentioned I apologize. Three things that will help Lance attempt an 8th win next year that didn't happen this year:

- A hand picked team dedicated to helping him win (to include Johan). 
- A full year of robot-like training specifically for the TDF, just like the old days. 
- A grudge he can openly express via his actions on the bike.


----------



## ksanbon (Jul 19, 2008)

moabbiker said:


> Gotta be kidding me. The real threat will be the Schlecks -- I use the plural since they will work in tandem to crack Contador with Andy obviously being the leader. His time trialing improved immensely in just one year and likely to continue on the rise.


+1 - he went from 11th last year to 2nd this year against much better competition. Just ask Sastre and Evans.


----------



## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

Snakebitten said:


> It may just come down to the teams next year.(


Unless Armstrong makes a huge gain in form compared to this year, he won't have a chance against Contador. No matter how strong your team you still have to perform in the TTs and the final climbs, they can't push you.


----------



## Snakebitten (Jun 26, 2008)

Dwayne Barry said:


> Unless Armstrong makes a huge gain in form compared to this year, he won't have a chance against Contador. No matter how strong your team you still have to perform in the TTs and the final climbs, they can't push you.


Hmmmm. I agree for the most part but if he did this well with that big layoff, colar bone, age and shortened training Id give him the benefit that next year he may be alot better than this year. The problem with that scenario though is assuming that AC and the Schlecks, Wiggins, Nibaldi, VDV stagnate at the level they are this year. LA is fighting an uphill battle that isnt in his favor. 

Truth be told he is better than 98% of the guys "this" year with all he faced prior to the TDF start so Im not ready to count the man out yet regardless of the person he may or maynot be. Ill wait and see but I cant help rooting for a fellow old bean. But I dont have blinders on.


----------



## masterken911 (Jun 17, 2009)

the only AC is NOT going to win the tour if he would've accident/injury. andy schleck may gives AC some battle since we assume andy schleck is going get better especially his TT. may be armstrong will train like crazy this off season and comes back stronger next year.


----------



## Henry Porter (Jul 25, 2006)

No way imo. AC will dominate him next year unless a ton of things happen in Lance's favor. Can't see it even being close.


----------



## ThaFurnace (Nov 16, 2005)

I hope AC CRUSHES Lance.


----------



## raymonda (Jan 31, 2007)

The best climber and TT will win the Tour and that is AC.


----------



## gregario (Nov 19, 2001)

No. Although I wonder if a team time trial will make a difference. I'm not a big fan of the TTT. It penalizes good guys on weak teams.


----------



## gregario (Nov 19, 2001)

ThaFurnace said:


> I hope AC CRUSHES Lance.


ditto.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> I wondered here in another thread about the same thing. Another poster stated he's not slated to do marathons/Tri's until after TdF.
> 
> That said, he has a hell of a job getting prepped, ahead of him. He'll be knocking on door number 39 by this time next year.


Much as I've slammed his interpersonal skills, I have to default to the old, "If anyone can do it, it's probably him ..." line. He has remarkable abilities and drive as an athlete.


----------



## Hawayyan (Feb 26, 2002)

*Why would Armstrongs team mates attacking...*

AC have any bearing whatsoever? All AC has to do is stay on Armstrongs wheel, forget the other Radio Shack guys, because we all know if one of them comes close to taking the lead, Armstrong will put the kibosh on that, and just attack Armstrong when he feels the time is right. No way Armstrong plays second fiddle to another team mate next year. I bet that on Radio Shack, the second placed rider on the team probably gets no closer than 10th or further down on GC after blowing themselves up for him. The "we could've had maybe the top three spots in the race" mentality is coming to an end.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

Snakebitten said:


> Hmmmm. I agree for the most part but if he did this well with that big layoff, colar bone, age and shortened training Id give him the benefit that next year he may be alot better than this year.


There is some basis to this argument, I guess, but the collar bone injury was in March, so blaming it that much is a bit of a stretch. These guys deal with those types of injuries constantly in their training. Lance began riding himself into shape on a fairly similar schedule this year to the one he usually used when he was winning Tours. In fact, one could say that in riding the Tour of Cali and Giro to gain form, he actually trained more than he used to. One of the criticisms of him used to be that he didn't race enough and he rode into form (a bit) in the first week or so of the Tour.
And the age thing will be there next year as well, +1.
I would be willing to bet that he's hopeful he can match his form from this year and use a dedicated team to pull off an upset - along with some catastrophic mistakes from Contador (like being unable to spell "team").


----------



## Circlip (Jul 26, 2005)

jptaylorsg said:


> Please explain your math. The way it's written, it looks like you're suggesting that if a rider finishes a stage 1 km ahead of a competitor, he only gains 10 seconds on him. I must be misunderstanding you, because that's ludicrous.



You are misunderstanding indeed. The meaning is that for every km the attacker spends out in front of the chasers there's typically about 10 seconds gained. That speaks nothing of the actual distance of separation other than the trend, since it depends largely on the grade and the cumulative fatigue of the riders involved. This isn't a hard rule, of course, since attackers often get pulled back partially or completely, but it's an interesting rough metric.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

Circlip said:


> You are misunderstanding indeed. The meaning is that for every km the attacker spends out in front of the chasers there's typically about 10 seconds gained. That speaks nothing of the actual distance of separation other than the trend, since it depends largely on the grade and the cumulative fatigue of the riders involved. This isn't a hard rule, of course, since attackers often get pulled back partially or completely, but it's an interesting rough metric.


I see the math in that. I would suggest that the climb up Verbier didn't exactly follow this metric, though.


----------



## Snakebitten (Jun 26, 2008)

jptaylorsg said:


> There is some basis to this argument, I guess, but the collar bone injury was in March, so blaming it that much is a bit of a stretch. These guys deal with those types of injuries constantly in their training. Lance began riding himself into shape on a fairly similar schedule this year to the one he usually used when he was winning Tours. In fact, one could say that in riding the Tour of Cali and Giro to gain form, he actually trained more than he used to. One of the criticisms of him used to be that he didn't race enough and he rode into form (a bit) in the first week or so of the Tour.
> And the age thing will be there next year as well, +1.
> I would be willing to bet that he's hopeful he can match his form from this year and use a dedicated team to pull off an upset - along with some catastrophic mistakes from Contador (like being unable to spell "team").


Were splitting hairs here jp lol....I mentioned the colar bone along with a few other things so it wasnt "blaming it that much" but as a series fo thing he had to over come to get to where he is now. But I get your point of view.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

Snakebitten said:


> Were splitting hairs here jp lol....I mentioned the colar bone along with a few other things so it wasnt "blaming it that much" but as a series fo thing he had to over come to get to where he is now. But I get your point of view.


And I definitely get your point of view. Splitting hairs is the point of these forums, right?


Edit: emoticon fail


----------



## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

jptaylorsg said:


> I see the math in that. I would suggest that the climb up Verbier didn't exactly follow this metric, though.


It shouldn't "exactly follow" the metric. It's a rough guide. Conti attacked up Andora de Arcolis with 2 km to go and gained 20 seconds on the GC heads of state. In that instance, it followed the metric, but there was a brutal headwind that day, so he should have gained maybe another 10 seconds the way he was flying up the mountain compared to the others.

The numbers are approximations is all. No science to it. My point being that if Armstrong loses about 30 seconds on each of 4 mountain top finishes, he's out of pocket 2 minutes. If there's a TTT and Conti is on a Silence-like team that can't TTT if there lives depended on it, Lance's TTT compensates for his time losses on the mountains (i.e., he should pick up 2 minutes against Conti's TTT performance). It then becomes Lance vs. Conti on the traditional two ITTs. Again -- huge if here -- Lance needs to become a top 3 ITT guy again to close the gap on Conti and thus have a chance to beat him. If Lance doesn't materially improve his 2009 ITT performances, it's lights out before Rotterdam 2010.


----------



## Hawayyan (Feb 26, 2002)

*I was thinking the same thing*

The TTT should count towards the Team standings, but not the GC. If the team leader is in second position in the TTT, and the last, lets say the next guy crashes out and takes out 4 guys with him, why should he be penalized.


----------



## slow_twitch (Jul 26, 2009)

jptaylorsg said:


> You must have watched a different stage than I did. The only thing that kept Contador from riding away from everyone except Andy Schleck is that he didn't need to attack, and A. Schleck kept breaking off his attacks when he saw that he couldn't shake Contador and brother Frank couldn't follow the attacks.
> 
> Contador breezed up the mountain under very little pressure.


Couldn't agree more. Alberto and Andy seemed to, and can be understood to, have been holding back in both of the last mountain stages. Lance, Wiggins, Frank Schleck, and Kloden seemed to all be "on the rivet" battling over that last podium spot, and I can't see them reaching any higher. Tactics only take you so far.

Lance's return is amazing, but to think he can win . . . Every year his fabled ability to recover between stages will go down: that is inevitable. This was his best chance, and he made a great show of it. I think he'll regret coming back next year.


----------



## Snakebitten (Jun 26, 2008)

jptaylorsg said:


> And I definitely get your point of view. Splitting hairs is the point of these forums, right?
> 
> 
> Edit: emoticon fail


:mad2: Damnit thats true. Maybe we should have a running bet on the board for next TDF on who will win between LA and AC next year. The winner gets a pistolero hat and a Gollum poster signed by AC or a bottle of Livestrong Depends signed by LA depending on who wins...


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

Snakebitten said:


> :mad2: Damnit thats true. Maybe we should have a running bet on the board for next TDF on who will win between LA and AC next year. The winner gets a pistolero hat and a Gollum poster signed by AC or a bottle of Livestrong Depends signed by LA depending on who wins...


If you throw in an iPhone with pre-set Twitter account, I'm in.


----------



## Snakebitten (Jun 26, 2008)

jptaylorsg said:


> If you throw in an iPhone with pre-set Twitter account, I'm in.


Bet  .


----------



## hotshot (Apr 18, 2008)

Ok dont flame me to hard...But..my personal option....I gotta through out the doping thing...I think that AC might be on something...Coke, Pepsi, Mountain Du, big mac......something.....can't see anyone at 135 pounds and 5' 10" recovering so fast each day and not hurt...I think its to light a weight. My bones hurt and I got sore pretty easy when I was down to 185 back in the days.. 218 now. Cant even dream of another 50 pounds off the body and do or die hard core racing... Still think he is to light for his height.. Micheal Jackson comes to mind..... But what do I know..I am just some dude on the internet...talking smack...


----------



## Spanky_88007 (Aug 28, 2008)

*And...*



ThaFurnace said:


> I hope AC CRUSHES Lance.


I hope they both get their butts handed to them by one of the Schlecks.


----------



## Ken (Feb 7, 2004)

Phil Ligget said, "AC could've won without a team, he's that good."


----------



## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Ken said:


> Phil Ligget said, "AC could've won without a team, he's that good."


He did win without a team.


----------



## gebbyfish (Apr 26, 2002)

There is no way. AC didn't look like he needed a team this year and at times, he was improving his position, despite the team this year!


----------



## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Can he? Yes. Will he? We'll see.


----------



## fab4 (Jan 8, 2003)

It's going to be hard for Lance to beat Alberto. Contador is very talented like Lance but also much younger. Team mates will be the difference. If Lance has a stronger team than Contador then he will have a good chance to beat Alberto.


----------



## jhamlin38 (Oct 29, 2005)

If they're both on equally strong teams, I seriously doubt it contador looks to be the guy that can win the triple a few times (Giro, Tour, vuelta) and as many as 10 straight tours. I think he's THAT GOOD! 
I hope he can surround himself with good people to make it happen!


----------



## fab4 (Jan 8, 2003)

If Contador stays healthy throughout his career he might win more grand tours than Lance. Hopefully through hard work and dedication.


----------



## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

fab4 said:


> If Contador stays healthy throughout his career he might win more grand tours than Lance. Hopefully through hard work and dedication.


The way he's riding, he only needs to stay healthy for another couple of years to beat Lance's Grand Tour total. He's only three short of him right now. He's shooting for Merckx and Hinault.
He needs to mix in the classics, too, of course, to be in the argument for best ever.


----------



## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

gregario said:


> No. Although I wonder if a team time trial will make a difference. I'm not a big fan of the TTT. It penalizes good guys on weak teams.


Yes it does, but it is such a beautiful expression of cycling and teamwork.


----------



## stevesbike (Jun 3, 2002)

I wouldn't start counting those wins just yet. Andy Schleck is further along than Contador was at 24. Schleck's time trialing is better than Contador's was a couple of years ago as is his aggressiveness on climbs. If Schleck continues to develop he'll be capable of beating Contador.


----------



## kokothemonkey (Jul 7, 2004)

The only Contador we know is Contador under Bruyneel. I think there will be some major changes to his performance when he is out from under a cushy team that crushes all others in the TTT.


----------



## SwiftSolo (Jun 7, 2008)

sbindra said:


> So I bet AC does not go with Team Radioshack. Can LA beat AC in 2010 if he's got a team of dedicated domestiques, just like Postal/Discovery, working for him as the unqualified leader the entire race?
> 
> Was it that LA couldn't go, or LA wouldn't go? There were a couple of times he was gapped and he came back pretty strong.


It will likely depend on the quality of AC's team. Given equal quality of wheels to suck the answer is likely "no". If LA assembles the right team and AC goes to one of the current Also Rans it will be interesting. It is clear to me that when it becomes a chess match--LA wins.


----------

