# 4th Annual "Who will make the Garmin Tour Squad"? thread



## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

Yes it's rapidly approaching that time of year again when the team that is good at everything but not quite great at anything will choose it it's tour squad. 
My initial predictions, barring any injuries between now and July

Locks
VDV - obvious GC choice, healthy for the first time in 2 years.
Hesjedal - co-GC guy, but his ITT will hamper him for anything higher than last year.
Thor - he'll be there, but he's looking old and unmotivated right now, WC curse?
Farrar - I thought about putting him at probable because of WW, but he is there only
option to challenge Cav in the sprints.

Probable
Millar - If he comes out of the Giro healthy he's a lock, plus he's been having a good year.
DZ - It seems DZ has gone back to doing what he's best at, TT. 
Tommy D - I choose him every year, but this year is different for 3 reasons, the Vuelta,
ToC, and he wore his hat the right way on the podium.

Questionable
Dean - He's been suffering from some health issues, Farrar needs him!
Martin - He was supposed to ride the Giro, now he may ride the Tour.
Maaskaant - Classics ruined by injury, Tour vet, helpful in the leadouts
JVS - Climbs well for a big guy, rides well on the flat.
Rasch - Not riding in Italy, may be fresh
Haussler - Originally was not suppose to ride the tour, but with Dean ailing, Tyler mourning
and Thor unmotivated, he may find his way in.
Le Mevel - Wasn't supposed to ride the Tour, probably still won't as the Giro is tough.

Just my opinions, how about all of yours?


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## jhamlin38 (Oct 29, 2005)

Always a good topic, sure to generate some flame throwing. I'll jump in.
Farrar will be in,
Thor will be in.
JVS will be in
Danielson
VDV
Ryder H
Dave Z or Le Mevel.
Miller.
That's who i think will be in
Le Mevel looks like a serious contender. Perhaps moreso than Dave Z. Le Mevel's performance in Italy is better than Dave Z's in Cali. I can't see Hausler *not *on the squad.
I'll probably pull more for VDV than anyone, and be very dissappointed if he cracks. Glad to see him healthy.

Farrar is their best sprint candidate to compete with Cav. However, he pulled from the Giro. Could hurt his chances to make the tour squad? He needs to bag a stage in Romandie or Tour de Suisse. I always pull for farrar, but still think he's a year away from beating cav occassionally. I don't think tyler can win back to back sprint stages like Cav. I think cav is a Generational sprinter.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Ryder for commercial reasons.
As a Canadian, and the only Canadian who will do anything worthwhile in the Tour, he gets tons of press. Canadian newspapers hardly ever mention the Tour, but he will get coverage. And that is good for Garmin sales and Cervelo sales in Canada.
If he won a stage his pic would be on lots of front pages and on the national news.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

I guess Farrar should be moved down to a probable from a lock now. He's publicly questioning his form and saying the team should keep him home if he can't perform. 

Meanwhile, Dan Martin finally showed up at the Dauphine but showed he's a liabilty in the TT. DZ is back to what he does best, a good ITT, and cracking jokes in the grupetto

Let's see how the boys do in Suisse.


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

I think DZ is going to get in because of:

Seniority on the team. Yes, this matters and it might be part of an agreement he has with Vaughters. 
Recent ITT success
Vaughters knows the TTT might be the only stage he'll get and he'll want DZ as part of that

I think Millar also gets in for seniority and ITT/TTT performance reasons unless the Millar->Green Edge rumors are too overbearing. 

And yes, unless he totally blows up in Switzerland, TD will get to ride his first Tour.

Finally, I think JVS does get in as a reward for Paris-Roubaix but also because he has performed well in past TdF's as a solid hill pacesetter.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

In:

Millar - unofficial wise-elder spokesman for the the entire peloton. Lots of PR effect from that alone. Plus his performance has been above average this year.

Ryder - Best shot at high placed GC

Christian - Too old and questionable performance to be GC captain. However, has always been a great domestique to earn his spot.

Thor - Best shot at the green jersey; one of the few in his class who will do solo breakaways just to earn points. 

Johan - Earned his spot and has always been a great flat and hilly terrain domestique.

Dean - Has the experience needed for leadouts.

Questionable:

Dave Z - Yes his performance is better this year but in past years has suffered greatly on 3 week grand tours. Needs to commit to doing breakaways and staying with the breakaway when the road tilts upwards.

Farrar - Doesn't seem very hungry to win right now.

Danielson - Shall we even go there.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

moabbiker said:


> In:
> 
> *Farrar - Doesn't seem very hungry to win right now.*



Farrar has taken some repeated hits and upsets in life over the last couple of years. That stuff adds up. Stretch the rubber band enough times and it starts to loose the snap-back factor....Starling's Law and all.


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Farrar has taken some repeated hits and upsets in life over the last couple of years. That stuff adds up. Stretch the rubber band enough times and it starts to loose the snap-back factor....Starling's Law and all.


Agree. Eventually he'll snap out of it and turn those downturns into positives, including "Wouter would have wanted me to continue racing and winning". But for right now, an absence might be what he needs.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Farrar
Thor
VDV
Danielson
Millar
DZ
Van Summeran
Ryder
Dean/Fischer


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

moonmoth said:


> I think DZ is going to get in because of:
> 
> Seniority on the team. Yes, this matters and it might be part of an agreement he has with Vaughters.
> Recent ITT success
> ...


Danielson's form has been good this season. He seems to be set to get a spot on this team.

DZ in his best TT form in years. The new diet and the more realistic expectations seem to be paying off, he's actually a little heavier and more powerful now. I think that could translate into greater resilience. I think DZ gets in because he has experience and now that they don't expect him to actually be a climber he could have a better result. They definitely want his firepower for the TTT.


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## asv (Aug 13, 2010)

Ryder
VDV
Thor
Millar
Zabriskie
Danielson
Johan

If Farrar doesn't ride:
Dan Martin
Le Mevel

If Farrar rides:
Farrar
Dean


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

IMO, most of the line ups are loaded with way too many old guys with no chance of making an impact. Garmin has a solid group of young riders and I'd think this year would be an ideal chance to get a number of them TDF experience.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

Given Garmin's history they use the Vuelta and recently the Giro for that.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

Locks:
VDV
Ryder
DZ
THOR!

Likely:
Farrar (if he recovers)
Dean (if Farrar recovers)
Hausler
Van Summeran
Le Mevel
Danielson (if only because it finally seems like he got his S--- together and pity will prevail)

The thing about Garmin is they've gone from a team with no objectives to one with too many. To get the best results, they should choose a direction and leave everyone else home. Say, "sprints for Farrar", or "GC for (Ryder/VDV)" and leave everyone who won't help that goal at home, Postal style. Instead, they're committed to Millar, Ryder, Thor and DZ and won't commit 100% to a team goal.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

kbiker3111 said:


> The thing about Garmin is they've gone from a team with no objectives to one with too many. To get the best results, they should choose a direction and leave everyone else home. Say, "sprints for Farrar", or "GC for (Ryder/VDV)" and leave everyone who won't help that goal at home, Postal style. Instead, they're committed to Millar, Ryder, Thor and DZ and won't commit 100% to a team goal.


It's easy to commit to a single team goal if your team has somebody like Armstrong or Cavendish, who are highly likely to deliver results. Going all in on one guy whose most likely result is, at best, 7th place on GC or third in the points competition doesn't strike me as being so sensible (and I'm not talking here about a 1-day race). If the team goal is to get a result, any result, I think the lineup with Millar, DZ, Ryder, Thor, Farrar, and VdV hedges your bets pretty reasonably.


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## Haridic (Jun 9, 2008)

Why isn't Heinrich Haussler cracking any mentions on Garmin's tour squad? He performed well in Paris-Nice and won a few stages in Qatar if I'm not mistaken, he's a hardman and performs particularly well. I'd certainly leave either Millar or DZ at home, seniority be damned you don't need both of them.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Haridic said:


> Why isn't Heinrich Haussler cracking any mentions on Garmin's tour squad? He performed well in Paris-Nice and won a few stages in Qatar if I'm not mistaken, he's a hardman and performs particularly well. I'd certainly leave either Millar or DZ at home, seniority be damned you don't need both of them.


The Tour wasn't in his program this year evidently. I think he wants to make the Worlds roster and do the Vuelta.

A tour team with the old climbers, TT guys, Thor/Tyler and Heinrich would be too schizoid.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Danielson seems to be in better climbing form than Ryder/VDV and anyone else on Garmin. He was the strongest guy in California and he is the GC guy at the TdS. It would seem foolish to leave him off the bus at this point. You don't bring TD to go for a high GC placing, that's too much pressure for him. I think you bring him along to give Ryder some extra help.


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## The Weasel (Jul 20, 2006)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Farrar has taken some repeated hits and upsets in life over the last couple of years. That stuff adds up. Stretch the rubber band enough times and it starts to loose the snap-back factor....Starling's Law and all.


If there is a cure for that, it's winning.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

So Dan Martin wins a one day race in Italy today, making his bid for a spot.

Tommy D finishes off the TDS with a very impressive 5th in the TT. Started the Day 2:30 out of the top 5 finishes the day 1:12 out of the top 5. Kind of makes that dropped chain suck that much more.

Garmin's issue at this point is they don't have a true GC contender. VDV will show up, perform well, and barring a crash do a top 10 ride. I still think Ryder is being given too much credit for his ride last year. He climbed very well, but his TT will prevent him from bettering last years performance. Tommy D has all the qualities of a good GC rider, except one very vital one, confidence. I think that if he can handle the pressure without getting himself sick, he could be the Garmin surprise this year.

My current picks
VDV
Ryder
Millar
Farrar
Thor
DZ
Tommy D
Martin
Dean


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

coop said:


> My current picks
> VDV
> Ryder
> Millar
> ...


Yep, that's the nine I also think will make the cut. Although they really won't mean it, you'll hear Garmin say that they'll be happy with a top 10 GC finish. Probably one of [Hejesdal, VDV, Martin, TD] can deliver that.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

moonmoth said:


> Yep, that's the nine I also think will make the cut. Although they really won't mean it, you'll hear Garmin say that they'll be happy with a top 10 GC finish. Probably one of [Hejesdal, VDV, Martin, TD] can deliver that.


I agree, even though I like Maaskant and Haussler.
Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but I wanted to criticize Garmin a bit - too many chiefs and not enough domestiques. Too many goals spread over the entire team.

It would be nice to have a lead-out train for Farrar, but having just Dean and maybe Thor (questionable if he is going for green) is not going to cut it. Thor is probably no longer fast enough for true sprinting, and may try to go for a stage win out of a smaller group, but probably won't try for green.

DZ needs to forget climbing and go for TT wins, but with Cancellara and Martin he and Millar probably have no shot - they have better chances trying for late breakaways with 3K to go. Millar keeps trying but not much luck lately.

Ryder would be a great candidate for breakaway stage wins, but probably will go for GC instead. He did spectacularly last year, but it may be difficult to reproduce again. In a stronger field, he may be realistically in top 10, but outside top 5. Would Garmin be happy with 7th overall?

VdV and Tommy D are in the same, but worse situation. They would be lucky to get top 10, and probably have no shot at top 5, even if things go very well for them. Bringing LeMevel to the team is going to make this only worse. TommyD and VdV need to be domestiques for Ryder. The problem is that they are all about equal in climbing and time trialing. They have a problem similar to radioshack with Levi, Horner, Klodi.

To summarize: Garmin is setting themselves up ideally for several of 2nd and 3rd places for Farrar (and Thor) in bunch sprints, 3rd place in TT, and maybe one or two 6-10th GC spots.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

55x11 said:


> They have a problem similar to radioshack with Levi, Horner, Klodi.


Except Levi, Horner and Klodi have all shown they will quickly go into domestique mode if a teammate has a good GC chance. Note sure Garmin can say that.


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

kbiker3111 said:


> Except Levi, Horner and Klodi have all shown they will quickly go into domestique mode if a teammate has a good GC chance. Note sure Garmin can say that.


We forget so soon. What about two years ago when Wiggins surprised everyone and VdV and Hesjedal immediately started working for him?


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

moonmoth said:


> We forget so soon. What about two years ago when Wiggins surprised everyone and VdV and Hesjedal immediately started working for him?


And Wiggo finished 4th. Garmin will be lucky to have 4th placed rider, but even if they do, the first person off the podium is the top loser, if you will. Same as 2nd place in a stage. 

If UCI team ranking points were awarded based on 2nd place finishes and 4th places in GC, Garmin would be leading the rankings by 1,000 points for the past 5 years. And in hype to results ratio they are in the league of their own.


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## Doctor Falsetti (Sep 24, 2010)

Just heard Tommy D made the team.


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## ohvrolla (Aug 2, 2009)

Glad to see Tommy D make the cut then. He's finished top 10 in the Vuelta and would be great to see a similar result in the TdF. Seems to be on better form than anyone else on Garmin's squad right now.


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## kbwh (May 28, 2010)

kbiker3111 said:


> Except Levi, Horner and Klodi have all shown they will quickly go into domestique mode if a teammate has a good GC chance. Note sure Garmin can say that.


Hushovd converted himself to domestique with bravura on the road to Roubaix at least.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

How long until Tom D comes down with mono or avian bird flu or something? Fate has never wanted him in this race and I'm not sure why anything would change now.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

kbiker3111 said:


> How long until Tom D comes down with mono or avian bird flu or something? Fate has never wanted him in this race and I'm not sure why anything would change now.


 Ahh let the haters keep on hating. Tommy D earned his spot on the team this year. He didn't get it because of "post Lance" hype that hung over him for many years. While he has had some rather strange ailments in the past, he's been pretty darn healthy for a cyclist. He also seems to be in the right place mentally, which was always one of his question marks.

I'll never understand why some people get more enjoyment out of someone's struggles rather than seeing someone who has struggled, succeed.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Hope I'm wrong, but I agree with 55x11 Garmin is spreading the mustard too thin. They do this every year.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

DZfan14 said:


> Hope I'm wrong, but I agree with 55x11 Garmin is spreading the mustard too thin. They do this every year.


If you don't have a true contender you take what you get, and maybe you get lucky and find yourself on the podium. Looking at the GC riders on the team, not one of them jump out and say grand tour contender.

Of the potential GC riders for the tour, I'd say build around VDV. He's the most consistent rider and he's avoided crashing this year. Let plan B be Hesjedal and Danielson. Hes-J is consistent, climbs well, but his TT is just average. Danielson is a better climber and so far this year better at TT, but his consistency will always be a question.

I just don't think Dan Martin is a Grand Tour GC rider yet. He's a great talent, but his TT is bad (think Schlecks but worse), and he's been dogged by allergies that affect his climbing.

I don't see LeMevel riding the tour this year. He killed himself the first 10 days of the Giro and they probably want someone for Tyler and Thor.

Still waiting to see how Talansky and Stetina progress!


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

coop said:


> My current picks
> VDV
> Ryder
> Millar
> ...


They'd have a decent TT Team with that line up, a decent chance in the sprints with Millar and DZ starting the lead out with Thor, Dean and Farrar to follow. Tommy D looks up to being a mountain domestique this year and Millar have been good at getting in breaks. Not great, but a couple a Stage wins would make their tour a success.


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## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

From Velonews:

http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/06/news/image-of-garmin-cervelo%E2%80%99s-tour-squad-becomes-clearer_180400

"ASO lists Garmin-Cervélo’s preliminary TDF squad as Tom Danielson (USA), Julian Dean (New Zealand), Tyler Farrar (USA), Ryder Hesjedal (Canada), Thor Hushovd (Norway), David Millar (Great Britain), Johan Vansummeren (Belgium), Christian Vande Velde (USA) and David Zabriskie (USA).

Alternates listed are Andreas Klier (Germany), Brett Lancaster (Australia), Cameron Meyer (Australia) and Ramunas Navardauskas (Lithuania)."


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## Mootsie (Feb 4, 2004)

Jwiffle said:


> From Velonews:
> 
> http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/06/news/image-of-garmin-cervelo%E2%80%99s-tour-squad-becomes-clearer_180400
> 
> ...


If JV was waiting to gain maximum media impact, I guess he waited just a bit too long. Now the sizzle is off the steak.


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## Mootsie (Feb 4, 2004)

JVS out and Ramunas Navardauskas in. There you have it.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Mootsie said:


> JVS out and Ramunas Navardauskas in. There you have it.



JVS out, seriously . I'd think just on the basis of his PR win he'd deserve to be on the Tour team, unless his form is bad.


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## orange_julius (Jan 24, 2003)

AJL said:


> JVS out, seriously . I'd think just on the basis of his PR win he'd deserve to be on the Tour team, unless his form is bad.


Navardaukas has really impressive palmares, I think he'll be a great classics rider and stage hunter in the grand tours. 

Maybe JVS himself isn't interested in riding the Tour?


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