# 2 Down, 3 to Go. Amstel, Fleche Wallone and L-B-L.



## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

Can someone do the triple? Will Ettix get one right?
Who's gonna crush the Huy?
My 'cycling season' has peaked. But these races still hold interest. 
Can Gerrans repeat? Will Gilbert return to greatness?


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

atpjunkie said:


> Can someone do the triple? Will Ettix get one right?
> Who's gonna crush the Huy?
> My 'cycling season' has peaked. But these races still hold interest.
> Can Gerrans repeat? Will Gilbert return to greatness?


Don't forget: Valverde, JRod.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

55x11 said:


> Don't forget: Valverde, JRod.


Valverde has never won any of these though he seems suited fot it. I think he's past his prime? Kwiatkowski? Mollema? Gallopin?
JRod is a good call as well


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

2 and a half days, the race in 2 days and so little chatter
what happened to this place?


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

I think you have named most of the usual suspects and contenders. Gerrans is recovering from two injuries as I understand it, so I'm not sure how much he will bring to the table. I think Valverde is a legit contender. He finished on the podium in two of the three last year, I think. I would also add in Dan Martin as a potential threat. My favorites are Kwiatkowski, J Rod, Valverde, and Gilbert. I'm clearly pulling for Kwiatkowski. J Rod would be second favorite of those. Gerrans would be there too if his health suddenly improves. My dark horse is Gallopin.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

I completely forgot Matthews. He is actually Orica's protected rider for this race due to Gerrans condition. If his climbing legs are at their best, races like the Ardennes could be ideal for him. It will be interesting to see what he is able to do on the climbs.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

atpjunkie said:


> Valverde has never won any of these though he seems suited fot it. I think he's past his prime?...


Valverde won Flèche Wallone and LBL, twice each. Including Wallone last year in an impressive late uphill sprint. He was also second in LBL last year, outsprinted by Gerrans. 
He is old but not past his prime yet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdUhAHhWwTY

Kwiatkowski is a good pick. Maybe Sagan can finally find something in his legs? Doubtful but who knows.

Mollema, Martin should be in the mix as well.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

55x11 said:


> Valverde won Flèche Wallone and LBL, twice each. Including Wallone last year in an impressive late uphill sprint. He was also second in LBL last year, outsprinted by Gerrans.
> He is old but not past his prime yet.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdUhAHhWwTY
> ...


Sagan is not starting. In fact the whole tinkoff team is a sad sight. A Kreuziger who has not raced for a month and that's about it.


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## thehook (Mar 14, 2006)

Not to make this about Sagan. the guy got 4mill and did nothing!

Bala will kill it!


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

55x11 said:


> Valverde won Flèche Wallone and LBL, twice each. Including Wallone last year in an impressive late uphill sprint. He was also second in LBL last year, outsprinted by Gerrans.
> He is old but not past his prime yet.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdUhAHhWwTY
> ...


yes you are correct. My mind was solely on the Amstel and I said 'all'. My bad.

thanks for pointing out my myopia and error.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

I am sending all the positive vibes I can toward this guy tonight:

Kwiatkowski stronger and wiser than last year ahead of Amstel Gold Race | Cyclingnews.com


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

atpjunkie said:


> yes you are correct. My mind was solely on the Amstel and I said 'all'. My bad.
> 
> thanks for pointing out my myopia and error.


I figured you may be talking about Amstel. Amstel seems to be a bit more open since it can go so many different ways. LBL and FW usually come down to uphill sprint or actual sprint.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Is there a team who doesn't know how to finish as race that is as bad as BMC? That many riders in the select group to include Van Avermaet and Gilbert and the best they can do is 5th? They had at least three riders in the final selection


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

Rashadabd said:


> I am sending all the positive vibes I can toward this guy tonight:
> 
> Kwiatkowski stronger and wiser than last year ahead of Amstel Gold Race | Cyclingnews.com


Strong vibes, they worked!


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

Ettix needed that. Gilbert faded hard. Matthews hung on but Kwiatkowski and Valverdre made a helluva bridge


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

burgrat said:


> Strong vibes, they worked!


I am so happy for him. That's a nice win. :thumbsup:

Video: Michał Kwiatkowski's winning sprint in Amstel Gold Race | Cyclingnews.com


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

maybe the Green Bullet on Wed???


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

atpjunkie said:


> maybe the Green Bullet on Wed???


It could easily be him. He's always right there. It certainly looks like it's possible that Matthews could come away with one of these too. I am all in for Kwiatkowski again, hoping he can channel his inner Gilbert from 2011 and sweep them all. 😉 It's highly doubtful given the completion he is riding against, but a guy can dream. Seriously, I think anybody that finished in the top 10 or so on Sunday could be there for the next two.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Post race analysis from cyclingnews: Five conclusions from Amstel Gold Race | Cyclingnews.com


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## TricrossRich (Mar 26, 2014)

AGR 2015.. what an exciting finish. Once you know that Kwiato is the winner... go back and watch the climb. It appears as if he's really suffering... suffering almost too much, especially when you know he wins. I think he was playing possum, making it look like he was out... he then quickly hops on JRod's wheel and gets pulled right up to striking distance.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

TricrossRich said:


> AGR 2015.. what an exciting finish. Once you know that Kwiato is the winner... go back and watch the climb. It appears as if he's really suffering... suffering almost too much, especially when you know he wins. I think he was playing possum, making it look like he was out... he then quickly hops on JRod's wheel and gets pulled right up to striking distance.


I just re-watched Flanders and Kristoff did the same thing to Terpstra. Either that or he has a quick recovery time. It's out there in English as well, but I couldn't find link right now. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvY4PPWmXhI


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## El Scorcho (Dec 14, 2005)

TricrossRich said:


> AGR 2015.. what an exciting finish. Once you know that Kwiato is the winner... go back and watch the climb. It appears as if he's really suffering... suffering almost too much, especially when you know he wins. I think he was playing possum, making it look like he was out... he then quickly hops on JRod's wheel and gets pulled right up to striking distance.


Look how far back Kwiato is when they start the sprint. Amazing piece of work.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

BMC with Gilbert has pretty good record on this hill.

I think if Gilbert broke away from Matthews, he could have held the solo line through to the finish as he has done before on this modified finish. And he almost did break Matthews - in fact if he DID break him towards the end of the steep part but he didn't realize it and backed off, then looked back and Matthews came back. They need mirrors!

Then, if Matthews did any work to hold off the charging pack, he probably would have won. Similarly, if Valverde put his head down and drove from the front when he bridged to Matthews+Gilbert, he would have won, maybe. But the problem is - they were all fully gassed at those points.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

spookyload said:


> Is there a team who doesn't know how to finish as race that is as bad as BMC? That many riders in the select group to include Van Avermaet and Gilbert and the best they can do is 5th? They had at least three riders in the final selection


Check out Quick Step/Etixx in this year's Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.

Four riders in the final break, one Sky rider vs three QS. 

Sky wins.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Cinelli 82220 said:


> Check out Quick Step/Etixx in this year's Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
> 
> Four riders in the final break, one Sky rider vs three QS.
> 
> Sky wins.


yeah, but Stennard was easily the strongest guy there. He was attacked a few times, covered every single one, and then attacked himself. What can you do?

Similarly, Kristoff was just too strong for Terpstra at Flanders. There is no amount of tactics that would have Terpstra get away from Kristoff on that day - when the fastest sprinter gets in a break and drives it himself, your options are limited.

And again, Stybar and whatever the other Ettix young belgian guy's name is - vs. Degenkolb in Paris-Roubaix. Let's face it - once Degenkolb bridged to Van Avermaet, it was game over. It was like asking if Cavendish sprints against Froome in a flat bunch sprint, who would win? Did anyone really have any doubts with Degenkolb (last year's second) rolling in a lead group to the velodrome?

So it's easy to pick on Ettix tactics, but I actually DO believe they play their cards fairly well - they are always, ALWAYS there at the end of every race, it's just they have a lot of cards but they are usually trumped! 
But they did win Strada Bianche with Stybar, and now Amstel with Kwiatkowski. And that's with injured Boonen. And they podiumed basically every race. 
What did Saxxo Tinkoff (Sagan) or Lotto (VanMarcke) or Trek or even BMC have done this season? Outside of Katyusha, what other team had better performance in spring classics so far?


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

55x11 said:


> yeah, but Stennard was easily the strongest guy there. He was attacked a few times, covered every single one, and then attacked himself. What can you do?
> 
> Similarly, Kristoff was just too strong for Terpstra at Flanders. There is no amount of tactics that would have Terpstra get away from Kristoff on that day - when the fastest sprinter gets in a break and drives it himself, your options are limited.
> 
> ...


That's the way I see it as well, but intelligent minds can differ I suppose.... Moreover, they won Roubaix last year using the same tactics. They have won Strade Bianchi two years in a row over Valverde, Sep, and a stronger Sagan. They have more wins this season than any other team at 19 and a boatload of podiums. I just don't see how that is failure. They certainly don't win them all, but they get their fair share.


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## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

I had never watched Amstel Gold before watching this year's race. Wow, that may be my favorite setting for a classic, just a beuatiful area of the world.

Did not watch Fleche live, I'll watch tonight.

One other note, this spring must be the nadir of post-Lance American cycling. Americans have produced shockingly little all spring. This isn't a new phenomenon, Americans don't grow up riding the tiny roads of Europe and rarely excel at the rough and tumble pack riding of the European spring. Still, this spring is amazingly poor for American riders. Today, only 2 Americans finished Fleche and the top finisher was Bookwalter who stumbled in at 53rd. Only one American raced Amstel (Alex Howes) and he got shelled off the front as soon as the Europeans turned up the wick and finished in essentially last place. Americans are currently nowhere to be seen in Trentino. I think Christopher Jones was the top American at this year's Paris-Roubaix in 95th (pathetic). Earlier this spring, Americans accomplished precious little at Paris-Nice or Tirreno. Seemingly this spring, if someone crashes it was an American. If someone gets dropped, it was the American contender. Or, more likely, Americans are simply not present at all in the sharp end of the race. What the hell is going on?


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

We really only have two riders that can compete at the highest level in my opinion: Talansky and van Garderen. They both target and focus on the grand tours and races leading up to them, so we don't see much of them this time of year. At times, Phinney looks like he could be a contender in the spring, but it hasn't happened yet and now he is recovering from a serious leg injury. There are also lots of young guys on various teams (Haga, Boswell, Craddock, Rosskopf, Carter Jones, Fairly, Stetina, etc.), but none of them has really done anything to get excited about yet. I feel like the old Garmin guard (Farrar, Danielson, etc.) all peaked a couple of years ago or so and are heading for retirement if they haven't already made that decision (Zabriski and BMC's Hincapie)


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## Hiro11 (Dec 18, 2010)

Rashadabd said:


> We really only have two riders that can compete at the highest level in my opinion: Talansky and van Garderen. They both target and focus on the grand tours and races leading up to them, so we don't see much of them this time of year. At times, Phinney looks like he could be a contender in the spring, but it hasn't happened yet and now he is recovering from a serious leg injury. There are also lots of young guys on various teams (Haga, Boswell, Craddock, Rosskopf, Carter Jones, Fairly, Stetina, etc.), but none of them has really done anything to get excited about yet. I feel like the old Garmin guard (Farrar, Danielson, etc.) all peaked a couple of years ago or so and are heading for retirement if they haven't already made that decision (Zabriski and BMC's Hincapie)


Talansky and TVG are coming up on Romandie and Suisse, we'll see what they do there. TVG has ridden well at L-B-L before, we'll see this year. Regardless, these guys are hardly suited to the spring one day races.

I more concerned about the young guys. For all the hype (at least in the US press) around the new batch of US riders and all of the teams desperate to sign a US rider for marketing exposure, none of the young Americans have yet amounted to much. The three most promising riders: Phinney, Craddock and Dombrowski all currently have physical challenges. Dombro is still recovering and has barely raced for two years (has he raced at all this year?). Phinney will likely never be the same (although I hope I'm wrong in that assessment). Craddock crashed hard at TDU and has been only slowly getting back on the bike. Many other younger Americans have gone nowhere in their first few years.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

atpjunkie said:


> maybe the Green Bullet on Wed???


well looky, looky, looky


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

as seen by the lack of posts on the classics threads, a majority of Americans don't know or don't care about the classics
American riders focus on what will resonate with American fans and that's the TdF and the ToC. I mean there's a longer thread about Horner not riding the ToC than there is Paris Roubaix and Flanders. The US guys will show form for the 1 week warm up tours.

I prefer 1 day races. None of this 'finish safely in the bunch' crap. Go for the win, all-in or wait for next year is far more satisfying


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## misterwaterfallin (Sep 14, 2012)

Hiro11 said:


> I had never watched Amstel Gold before watching this year's race. Wow, that may be my favorite setting for a classic, just a beuatiful area of the world.
> 
> Did not watch Fleche live, I'll watch tonight.
> 
> One other note, this spring must be the nadir of post-Lance American cycling. Americans have produced shockingly little all spring. This isn't a new phenomenon, Americans don't grow up riding the tiny roads of Europe and rarely excel at the rough and tumble pack riding of the European spring. Still, this spring is amazingly poor for American riders. Today, only 2 Americans finished Fleche and the top finisher was Bookwalter who stumbled in at 53rd. Only one American raced Amstel (Alex Howes) and he got shelled off the front as soon as the Europeans turned up the wick and finished in essentially last place. Americans are currently nowhere to be seen in Trentino. I think Christopher Jones was the top American at this year's Paris-Roubaix in 95th (pathetic). Earlier this spring, Americans accomplished precious little at Paris-Nice or Tirreno. Seemingly this spring, if someone crashes it was an American. If someone gets dropped, it was the American contender. Or, more likely, Americans are simply not present at all in the sharp end of the race. What the hell is going on?


Howes went off the front late in Amstel. He didn't have the legs, but was likely setting up Martin or another team mate. He did the same thing last year if I remember correctly.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

atpjunkie said:


> I prefer 1 day races. None of this 'finish safely in the bunch' crap. Go for the win, all-in or wait for next year is far more satisfying


I am so with you on this....


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

I am looking forward to one of season's and cycling's great races tomorrow. It will be fun to see who rises to the challenge. The Classics have been entertaining so far as we have watched the best classics men and puncheurs go head to head and have even had a few surprises here and there- Young Julian:

http://youtu.be/Iys_LK_lyd0


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Gallery: Liège-Bastogne-Liège team presentation | Cyclingnews.com


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

so who do ya think? I'm leaning Kwiatkowski in the arc en ciel


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## El Scorcho (Dec 14, 2005)

atpjunkie said:


> so who do ya think? I'm leaning Kwiatkowski in the arc en ciel


Tough to bet against that guy right now. I could see Valverde on the podium as well.


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

El Scorcho said:


> Tough to bet against that guy right now. I could see Valverde on the podium as well.


I'm with that! Two in a row? With a second at Amstel Gold!


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

atpjunkie said:


> so who do ya think? I'm leaning Kwiatkowski in the arc en ciel


The course is a great one for Kwiatkowski, I also think he throttled it down a little on Wednesday with this race in mind. I will be pulling for him again, but two young French racers scare me a little bit. Those two gents are Gallopin and Bardet. Gallopin has been in really good form this season, is targeting this race as one of his major goals, and he took Wednesday off to rest his legs. This is one of Bardet's major goals of the season as well and that guy can flat out climb. I also wouldn't rule out Gerrans, I have this gut feeling he is playing a bit of possum and wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in the front group near the end. JRod also reportedly wants this one bad, so keep an eye out for him, he should excel on these climbs if he's 100%. It should be fun regardless of how it turns out, but fwiw, Go Kwiat!


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

Rashadabd said:


> The course is a great one for Kwiatkowski, I also think he throttled it down a little on Wednesday with this race in mind. I will be pulling for him again, but two young French racers scare me a little bit. Those two gents are Gallopin and Bardet. Gallopin has been in really good form this season, is targeting this race as one of his major goals, and he took Wednesday off to rest his legs. This is one of Bardet's major goals of the season as well and that guy can flat out climb. I also wouldn't rule out Gerrans, I have this gut feeling he is playing a bit of possum and wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in the front group near the end. JRod also reportedly wants this one bad, so keep an eye out for him, he should excel on these climbs if he's 100%. It should be fun regardless of how it turns out, but fwiw, Go Kwiat!


And Michael Valgren! He has wins here in U23. Big jump to the pro peloton but a rider to watch...


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

PBL450 said:


> I'm with that! Two in a row? With a second at Amstel Gold!


Great finish. Isolated, forced to chase, still takes the sprint. Kwiatkowski broke on the San Nicolas, sad because Stybar killed himself in support, but their team mate got 2nd


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

Yeah, just in case anyone was unaware, Valverde is a BEAST! Nice rides by all of the top finishers, Julian is making some serious waves. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the Kwiatkowski contract talks and/or who the team backs as the leader in the future. I am sure it's a nice problem to have though.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

The finish:http://youtu.be/wqOS0FUK70M


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

rashadabd said:


> the finish:http://youtu.be/wqos0fuk70m


yesssss!!!!


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

PBL450 said:


> yesssss!!!!


It's sad we are still talking about stuff like this. I am choosing to believe/hoping he earned this one fair and square: Analysis: The curious case of Alejandro Valverde - VeloNews.com


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

Rashadabd said:


> It's sad we are still talking about stuff like this. I am choosing to believe/hoping he earned this one fair and square: Analysis: The curious case of Alejandro Valverde - VeloNews.com


not sure why cycling fans are so obsessed with discussing doping in this era. sure it happens, but the evidence doesn't appear to support that it's a significant issue in today's peloton, so perhaps best left to the dwinling few who populate the doping forum methinks.


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## Rashadabd (Sep 17, 2011)

dnice said:


> not sure why cycling fans are so obsessed with discussing doping in this era. sure it happens, but the evidence doesn't appear to support that it's a significant issue in today's peloton, so perhaps best left to the dwinling few who populate the doping forum methinks.


To be fair, I think we are discussing it because the UCI is discussing it, because the media is covering the UCI discussing it, because it is THE major item on the UCI's agenda, because two Astana riders and a handful of others were caught doping last year, because Astana "almost" lost their license over it last week, etc....


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## PBL450 (Apr 12, 2014)

Rashadabd said:


> It's sad we are still talking about stuff like this. I am choosing to believe/hoping he earned this one fair and square: Analysis: The curious case of Alejandro Valverde - VeloNews.com


It is very sad. An asterisk attached to every accomplishment? It's clear why the suspicion... He did his time. He has kept quiet nd and he is riding his bike and winning. I so hope he's clean. I really do.


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## dnice (Jul 12, 2012)

Rashadabd said:


> To be fair, I think we are discussing it because the UCI is discussing it, because the media is covering the UCI discussing it, because it is THE major item on the UCI's agenda, because two Astana riders and a handful of others were caight doping lsat year, because Astana "almost" lost their license over it last week, etc....


Ever go out on a date with someone who, no matter how hard you try, always finds a way to bring every conversation back to their ex?...That's the UCI!
They probably coudn't succesfully operate a free water stand at the end of a marathon. Now, we're really on topic!:thumbsup:


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

dnice said:


> Ever go out on a date with someone who, no matter how hard you try, always finds a way to bring every conversation back to their ex?...


no. 
must be the company


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

dnice said:


> not sure why cycling fans are so obsessed with discussing doping in this era. sure it happens, but the evidence doesn't appear to support that it's a significant issue in today's peloton, so perhaps best left to the dwinling few who populate the doping forum methinks.


I think this is kind of naive. My guess is the majority are still hopped, just getting more stealthy about it

times/speeds haven't significantly dropped since the so called peak of the era

marginal gains...


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