# TDF 2012 favorites?



## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

Well based off what is known of the line ups so far, what do you think?

Tour de France 2012 confirmed riders list

I think BMC is looking strongest. Cadel's looking hot and Tejay/Gilbert/Hincapie is probably the best supporting cast for GC.

Wiggins had nice form so far but I don't see Sky having the ideal build around him.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

Heads will explode, but I think the race is now set up well for Valverde. His form looked great at the TDS and he's a much better climber than Wiggins (and most years Evans). Plus, with no Contador, he'll most likely have the help of Spanish riders from various teams on the high mountain stages if needed.


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## Cpk (Aug 1, 2009)

Jens Voigt


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

AdamM said:


> Heads will explode, but I think the race is now set up well for Valverde. His form looked great at the TDS and he's a much better climber than Wiggins.


*Was* a much better climber. But he's just been banned for being turbo-charged. And in the interim, Wiggo has improved a lot. There has only been one race this year that I recall where they've both been going for it, and that's Paris-Nice. In 2 hilltop finishes, Piti took a grand total of 0 seconds out of Wiggins*. In the mountain TT (does that count as climbing??) Wiggo took a minute out of Valverde in 10k.

Though I have to say that I was pretty impressed with the way Valverde rode in the TdS. He did look strong on Sunday. And I've never seen him work as a team player like that before. He really did work hard right up until the end to ensure Costa won the overall.

* Can you imagine how much time Valverde would've put into Wiggins on the Mende climb 3 or 4 years back?


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

Conventional wisdom is that it's all just Wiggins vs. Evans - if this is really the case (for argument's sake), who is the favorite for third spot on the podium? That's the tough one for me.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

velojon said:


> who is the favorite for third spot on the podium?


Van den Broeck - Can stay with the high and controlled pace on the climbs (which I think we're expecting if Sky are in control), and can TT better than most of the other GC guys.


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

Yeah the extra TT this year is going to kill some of these guys. I wonder if Menchov might surprise a few people (if he can stay upright in the TTs)?  Hesjedal might not be recovered from the Giro and Leipheimer is still not quite back from injury - not too many decent TTers left.


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## bobinvirginia (Apr 14, 2006)

Leipheimer...I'm not a big Levi fan, but this Tour sets up nicely for him. One of the best TT riders especially in a 3 week race and consistent climber. He will limit his losses in the climbs and make up significant time to most of the GC riders in the TT's. I truly think he's a top 3-5 contender...maybe even higher.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Levi has a great shot. He made all of the selections in the last two races. He's on his way up and with so many TT k's I think at least a couple of teams will be riding to control the mountains and set it up for the TT's to make the difference. This Tour is the best possible scenario for Levi. 

If (a big one) his team mate Peter Martin can avoid being dropped in the mountains he could win the thing.

Those outside scenarios aside, this should be the Cadel and Wiggo show.


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## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

AdamM said:


> Heads will explode, but I think the race is now set up well for Valverde. His form looked great at the TDS and he's a much better climber than Wiggins (and most years Evans). Plus, with no Contador, he'll most likely have the help of Spanish riders from various teams on the high mountain stages if needed.


I wouldn't weigh into that idea so much. Sanchez did help with Contador's last gasp-effort in the 2011 TdF (Stage 19 I think?), but I can't imagine Valverde getting such help, let alone enough to be a GC threat.

But I can't say that's impossible. Contador arguably single-manned the TdF twice, starting with his backstabbing Astana crew in 2009. Maybe his 2010 support was alright; Navarro and Hernandez are decent climbers, and Vino is Vino, but he was fighting sickness on top of that. 

Let's not forget what a crash or mechanical can do.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Leipheimer is going to be peaking for the Tour like he hasn't in years, thanks to his leg injury derailing his typical spring stage race peak. There were some of the typical "wheelsucker" comments coming out of his TDS podium but I think he was treating it as a final training ride for his TDF bid. He has been racing more aggressively in the past couple of years in my opinion and this Tour is probably more suited for him than any he will ever experience. I'm going to say the same for Menchov, who has been quiet lately but could do very well on this course and possibly become the sixth rider ever to win all three Grand Tours. In top form, I believe both of these riders could give Wiggins and Evans a run for their money.

The question for that pair though is can they stay upright for three weeks?


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## Opus51569 (Jul 21, 2009)

I think Wiggins has a good shot, depending on which Cadel shows up.

I'm definitely looking forward to Cavendish and Sagan in the sprint finishes.


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

AdamM said:


> Heads will explode, but *I think the race is now set up well for Valverde*. His form looked great at the TDS and he's a much better climber than Wiggins (and most years Evans). Plus, with no Contador, he'll most likely have the help of Spanish riders from various teams on the high mountain stages if needed.


I think there are too many time trial miles. I do think he will be coming into great form, but I don't think it'll be enough to even podium. Either way, this is shaping up to be an interesting Tour. I can't wait!


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

Cancellara for GC, y'all! Too bad he's not on top form yet...


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## 1LaneLam (Jun 19, 2012)

My money is on Wiggins. Overall winner of Tour of Romandie, Dauphine, and Paris-Nice of this year. He can climb and is the world's top 3 in TT, even beating Tony Martin at the Dauphine! 

Only Wiggin can pop his chain off during a TT and still win the stage!


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

1LaneLam said:


> My money is on Wiggins. Overall winner of Tour of Romandie, Dauphine, and Paris-Nice of this year. He can climb and is the world's top 3 in TT, even beating Tony Martin at the Dauphine!
> 
> Only Wiggin can pop his chain off during a TT and still win the stage!


on paper Wiggins and Cadel gotta be the top two favorites. We may all argue for the next few weeks about who is #1 and who is #2 favorite, but I think it could really go either way. I like Cadel's past grand tour experience, which I think gives him (a very slight) edge over Wiggins - the course is practically designed just for him and he has been on fire all year (which could be a bad thing).

For third, I think Valverde, Menchov, Van den Broeck and Gesink (yes, I know, very uneven lately, but I think he has a potential to do really well, finally - similar to Van den Broeck). 
Sorry to say, but I think Levi's podium days are over. Tony Martin will lose tons of time in the mountains. 
Nibali could do well too. I almost forgot about Nibbles. I used to think he will be a huge future star, we'll see if he lives up to the expectations.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

I'm a fan of Valverde, but he won’t go uphill any faster than a bike length or so than the fastest GC rider. If Cadel can drop Wiggins, Valverde should be able to stay with him. 

I like Van den Broeck, too. I'm not sure how he's TTing this year, but I expect him to stay with the GC riders in the high mountains.

I don't how LL is doing, but he could ride right onto the podium. 

I pick Cadel for a repeat right now, with Wiggins nipping at his heels.

July looks exciting!


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

bobinvirginia said:


> Leipheimer...I'm not a big Levi fan, but this Tour sets up nicely for him. One of the best TT riders especially in a 3 week race and consistent climber. He will limit his losses in the climbs and make up significant time to most of the GC riders in the TT's. I truly think he's a top 3-5 contender...maybe even higher.


I like LL but I can't think of a single discipline where he's going to be better than Wiggins (or Cadel) this tour. A chance if those two have seriously bad luck


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

I heard it through the grapevine that Zombie Pantani is expected to be coming into some good form for July. The high altitude braining camp has done wonders for his climbing, and he's really been chewing up the miles on the TT bike in preparation. Stay tuned...


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## tazzmacd (Feb 24, 2012)

Wiggins and Evans will be one two. Levi maybe, I am hoping Ryder pulls out a top 5 that would be impressive.

Anyway you look at it, this year is shaping up to be quite the battle and a very exciting race for sure.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

of course there is wiggo and evans. with the schjlecks out, so some reason the entire race seems open again. not sure why. maybe its because i dont have to theink about frandy.

i have been trying to think of others that are good at time trialing that wouldnt get killed on the climbs. i had been thinking the past few days about levi. back when he was with gerolsteiner i used to get sucked into thinking he could pull off a tour victory, then i came to my senses and realized he is a great one week stage racer. i strated looking at riders i knew and thought he might sneak in there. he has a good team, and without boonen they might give him some help. but there is the injury, the fact he is never explosive (the same thing was said about evans until last year), and the fact he always has at least one bad day in the mountains.

how is egoi martinez at the TT? i can see him put time into wiggo and evans in teh mountains. but the basque look stacked for single mountain stage victories. i dont think they would try sanchez for gc with the TT distance.

what about david millar? with ryder and vandevelde all giroed out, would he have the chops? he has been mia lately. never a good sign. but with all the time trialing he might make a go of it. the problem is i dont see him beating wiggo in the TTs, or sticking with him in the mountains.

i am looking for dark horses here. the one thing i am certain of is we will see plenty of replays showing hoogerlands crash from last year.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

weltyed said:


> of course there is wiggo and evans. with the schjlecks out, so some reason the entire race seems open again. not sure why. maybe its because i dont have to theink about frandy.
> 
> i have been trying to think of others that are good at time trialing that wouldnt get killed on the climbs. i had been thinking the past few days about levi. back when he was with gerolsteiner i used to get sucked into thinking he could pull off a tour victory, then i came to my senses and realized he is a great one week stage racer. i strated looking at riders i knew and thought he might sneak in there. he has a good team, and without boonen they might give him some help. but there is the injury, the fact he is never explosive (the same thing was said about evans until last year), and the fact he always has at least one bad day in the mountains.
> 
> ...


Millar? best placing ever in a GT is 55, and that was before he was born again. seriously? 
Millar? 
David?


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

den bakker said:


> Millar? best placing ever in a GT is 55, and that was before he was born again. seriously?
> Millar?
> David?


i know. right? who is garmin gonna put their eggs with? ryder and vdv are probably sapped from the giro. who will they run for gc? millar is fun to pick as a looooooooooong shot, based primarily on his TT abilities. i doubt he can climb. 

but im looking outside.

i forgot to add menchov, but he has been lost since winning the giro. and i dont see him breaking evans or wiggo on the mountains.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

weltyed said:


> i know. right? who is garmin gonna put their eggs with? ryder and vdv are probably sapped from the giro. who will they run for gc? millar is fun to pick as a looooooooooong shot, based primarily on his TT abilities. i doubt he can climb.
> 
> but im looking outside.
> 
> i forgot to add menchov, but he has been lost since winning the giro. and i dont see him breaking evans or wiggo on the mountains.


here's the deal, a team does not need a captain for GC, no point in wasting a team or even a part of it on it. no need to pick random crap names for it just "to think outside the box". 
especially when there are names like Dan Martin to pick that at least has some shot at top 10. Or the rider that actually got 8th last year.


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## PDex (Mar 23, 2004)

weltyed said:


> i know. right? who is garmin gonna put their eggs with? ryder and vdv are probably sapped from the giro. who will they run for gc? millar is fun to pick as a looooooooooong shot, based primarily on his TT abilities. i doubt he can climb.
> 
> but im looking outside.
> 
> i forgot to add menchov, but he has been lost since winning the giro. and i dont see him breaking evans or wiggo on the mountains.


Danielson?


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

weltyed said:


> i know. right? who is garmin gonna put their eggs with? ryder and vdv are probably sapped from the giro. who will they run for gc? millar is fun to pick as a looooooooooong shot, based primarily on his TT abilities. i doubt he can climb.


Question ^^.



PDex said:


> Danielson?


Answer^^.

He's no threat to win but the Top-5 at the tour often contains a couple of good guys who had the luck to not get battered. He could be one of those along with Levi (who as won a tour TT and finished 2nd within 30sec. of Contador before).


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

davidka said:


> Question ^^.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


of course in the mean time, Contador is now without a diaper but Leipheimer is close to needing one again 
Leipheimer has not had a good GT result in this decade.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

I'm skeptical of ranking Wiggins as a strong favorite because nothing in his grand tour history suggests it. In three week stage races he has a regular pattern of blowing up on key climbs and his time trail results have tended to be good, but nothing at all like dominating performances. If we're going to base TDF performance on one week stage racing then Leipheimer would be a multiple times winner. I hope Wiggins can get over his past and break through similar to Evans, but until he actually does it, reserving a place on the podium or in the yellow jersey seems to be a reach.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

MattSoutherden said:


> Van den Broeck - Can stay with the high and controlled pace on the climbs (which I think we're expecting if Sky are in control), and can TT better than most of the other GC guys.


I liked Jurgen as the dark horse also, but I just saw the Lotto roster is set up to bolster Griepel in the sprints. He won't have any help in the mountains. It will be all on him.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

I agree that Leipheimer will never have a better shot than this year. The only other dark horses I see are Gesnick and Brajkovic. Possibly Sanchez but I doubt it due to ITT.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

!) Cadel
2) Wiggo
3) Valverde?

Barring something unforseeable, the fight will be for the bottom step at the podium. I'm thinking Valverde, but Ryder with his Giro win is looking tempting.

Looking for great things from Sagan - but think he will drop-out with Cav to prepare for the Olympics.

Would like Jens to get a stage win in a breakaway! That would be great.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

PDex said:


> Danielson?


wasnt thinkin of him. he wasnt on that short list, and they have been working him like he is prepping for le Tour.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

thechriswebb said:


> Leipheimer is going to be peaking for the Tour like he hasn't in years, thanks to his leg injury derailing his typical spring stage race peak. There were some of the typical "wheelsucker" comments coming out of his TDS podium but I think he was treating it as a final training ride for his TDF bid. He has been racing more aggressively in the past couple of years in my opinion and this Tour is probably more suited for him than any he will ever experience. I'm going to say the same for Menchov, who has been quiet lately but could do very well on this course and possibly become the sixth rider ever to win all three Grand Tours. In top form, I believe both of these riders could give Wiggins and Evans a run for their money.
> 
> The question for that pair though is can they stay upright for three weeks?


 Typical wheelsucker comments? He was called out by fellow riders in each of the last 2 stages! Levi of a couple of years ago may have been able to hang with Wiggins in a tour TT, but not anymore. when he loses time in the TT's where is he going to make it up? Sky will be pulling a USPS/Disco on the front and all levi will be able to do is suck, oops "follow" wheels.


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

1. Wiggo, he's been on top a lot this year, will he fade?
2. Evans, mostly quiet this year, different prep or has he aged fast?
3. Nibali, on paper may be a better climber, but not so for TT
4. Menchov, in the past as good as the top 2 in TT, but hasn't shown much lately
5. Schleck, will have to attack a lot (yeah for us) to make up for the minutes he'll lose in TT
6. VDB, does everything well, but probably not well enough
7. Levi, use to TT as good as top 2, will probably snipe a couple of seconds at a finish after sucking wheels up a climb
8. Gesink, if he can stay upright, will move up to possible podium, needs consistency
9. Garmin, I think Ryder will fade, VDV is the American VDB, Tommy D will need a shepherd, Martin will out climb everyone, but can't TT at all
10. Samu, will always be there could finish anywhere between 3rd and 10th

It will take a combination of attacks to break up the SKY train. They're not going to beat Wiggo by out TTing him, so if they'll have to put him under as much pressure as possible whenever they can .


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

*My prognostications*

-Sagan grabs yellow at the prologue.
-Voeckler won't be allowed into any more breaks. Ever.
-Wiggins is toast by week 3. There's a reason everyone but him trains in peaks. This isn't swimming, after all.
-Cav gets Sagan'd multiple times.
-Johnny Hoogerland avoids all run-ins with barbed wire and takes a breakaway stage win.
-Frank Schleck abandons. (Duh)
-Hesjedal works for VDV and Danielson. If Conti couldn't do the double, why do people think Ryder can, eh?
-Jonathan Vaughters' sideburns get into the breakaway on the 4th stage and take the win.
-Vino goes on a crazy and ballsy uphill attack at the end of a mountainy stage, only to be caught right before the line, again.
-All the Spanish riders, regardless of team, band together, and one of them achieves the 3rd rung of the podium. 
-Jens makes crazy faces while going uphill.
-Chris Horner gives candid post-race interviews whiles smirking a lot.
-VDV gives candid post-race interviews while wheezing a lot (somebody get the poor man an inhaler, stat!).
-Pierre Rolland takes a top five finish.
-Evans takes the GC.
*-Something completely unexpected happens, and we all talk about it at significant length.*


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Evans and Valverde are my picks as they haven't hit top form so far. I don't think that Wiggins, the best rider of the year so far, can maintain his form.


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

-Hesjedal works for VDV and Danielson. If Conti couldn't do the double, why do people think Ryder can, eh?

That's a reasonable assumption, however, I don't think the Giro-Tour double is as impossible as some, and Contador could be the next to do it. Last year's Giro was unusually brutal, and he didn't have great team support, but if all the planets line up, it could happen. Who would have predicted the double for Pantani or Stephen Roche? Agree that it's a reach for Hesjedal, but...


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

1. Evans
2. Wiggins
3. Gesink if he can keep out of trouble... or Nibali? He seemed, and said he was, way off in California and in the Dauphiné...

Even with a perfect preparation, I wouldn't think Levi can podium but he's on the way to be at his best for the Tour and he's a good TTer, he could make it into the top 5.

Fabian said months ago he would race for his own goals in the Tour (mostly preparing for the Olympics), that he wouldn't kill himself for teammates. That and the soap opera of RadioSchleck, I think it will be a free for all in that team. Horner will try to stick with the GC favorites, Fränk too, the rest will try to go in breaks and/or stage wins.

Green: Sagan. Cav will pull out before the last stages to get ready for London.


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## wesb321 (Oct 1, 2011)

Somebody mentioned Fabian. At 180 lbs I don't ever see him climbing at the level of a Frank or Cadel for example. Fabian is capable of doing some serious damage in a couple of stages in the tour. As an over all podium winner I never see it happening.

I really look forward to seeing some battles and Mark's trade marked style sprints soon!


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## tazzmacd (Feb 24, 2012)

erj549 said:


> -Hesjedal works for VDV and Danielson. If Conti couldn't do the double, why do people think Ryder can, eh?


A Nation can hope for the impossible can't it!!! Besides, this years tour is a little more suited towards a double then other years


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

tazzmacd said:


> A Nation can hope for the impossible can't it!!! Besides, this years tour is a little more suited towards a double then other years


Alright, I won't rain on your Canuck parade, eh?


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

den bakker said:


> of course in the mean time, Contador is now without a diaper but Leipheimer is close to needing one again
> Leipheimer has not had a good GT result in this decade.


Stranger things have happened. Cadel put himself among the oldest TdF winners ever last year. If ever there were a situation where Levi could benefit at the Tour (favorites all being TT-leaning riders), this is it.


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## Rokh On (Oct 30, 2011)

Alejandro Valverde. I'm thinking Movistar will be a bigger impact than many expect.


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## Local Hero (Jul 8, 2010)

I like Sagan. I like him a lot. But how can we speak of Wiggans's early peak and presume that Sagan's peak is still to come?


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Local Hero said:


> I like Sagan. I like him a lot. But how can we speak of Wiggans's early peak and presume that Sagan's peak is still to come?


There is an interesting article in cyclingnews.com that points out that Wiggins has only entered 5 races this year (two wins and a 2nd). I don't know how that will effect his ability to carry his fitness through July but it makes that an even more interesting question.


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## LostViking (Jul 18, 2008)

I suspect Wiggo is going to crash at some point and lose time he can't make up to Cadel, who is probably the better bike handler of the two,

I also suspect VDV will crash-out. Not something I hope for, but something I suspect based on previous Tours. 

Levi might be top ten, but not a podium contender IMHO. 

FrAndy are going to be too busy negotiating with other teams so Frank will perhaps be in the top five if he cares to be. 

Valverde can climb and TT pretty well and will benefit from Cadel and Wiggo marking eachother - third step on the podium is not an unreasonable expectation. 

Spartacus or Wiggo will win the first TT and wear Yellow for a couple of stages - Wiggo might not want it this early and throttle back a bit so Spartacus, not a GC threat, and Radio Shanty do the grunt work in the early stages.

Sky can just wheelsuck and keep Wiggo safe and Cav in a position to freelance some stage wins - if Sagan allows it.

Or

The Tour is full of surprizes and none of this imagining pans out!

Either way, I think it will be a fun Tour to watch - especially because it seems Silly Season has started early this year and the talking heads will have lots to speculate about!


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

erj549 said:


> -Wiggins is toast by week 3. There's a reason everyone but him trains in peaks. This isn't swimming, after all.


Why do you think he's not training to peak for the Tour?


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Sky TdF roster announcement. I hope for Wiggins' sake that it doesn't cost too much energy to help Cav out with the sprint stages. This never worked out well (splitting the team's ambitions) for T-Mobile or Lotto.

Team Sky announces powerful team to help Bradley Wiggins win the Tour de France


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

davidka said:


> Sky TdF roster announcement. I hope for Wiggins' sake that it doesn't cost too much energy to help Cav out with the sprint stages. This never worked out well (splitting the team's ambitions) for T-Mobile or Lotto.
> 
> Team Sky announces powerful team to help Bradley Wiggins win the Tour de France


worked fairly well for deutche telekom though.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

den bakker said:


> worked fairly well for deutche telekom though.


I agree that it's possible, just not probable.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

den bakker said:


> worked fairly well for deutche telekom though.


 Some think that Jan's biggest disadvantage to LA during those years was riding with a team that gave 3-4 support riders to Erik Zabel against a 9-man team that was all in for LA. Telekom showed strength for sure, just have to wonder how much stronger they could've been if every effort had been spent in the interest of the GC chase.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

spade2you said:


> I agree that it's possible, just not probable.


meh, compared to leipheimer taking it this year, it's almost a shoe-in


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

den bakker said:


> meh, compared to leipheimer taking it this year, it's almost a shoe-in


Ha! Fair enough!


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Doesn't look like they've split much. Bernie is the only real nod towards Cav. Everyone else has been on Wiggo's squads this year.

EB is pretty versatile, and he's a great sprinter in his own right, I wonder if he's been practicing a lead-out of Cav?


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

AdamM said:


> I'm skeptical of ranking Wiggins as a strong favorite because nothing in his grand tour history suggests it. In three week stage races he has a regular pattern of blowing up on key climbs and his time trail results have tended to be good, but nothing at all like dominating performances. If we're going to base TDF performance on one week stage racing then Leipheimer would be a multiple times winner. I hope Wiggins can get over his past and break through similar to Evans, but until he actually does it, reserving a place on the podium or in the yellow jersey seems to be a reach.


4th at the tour doesn't suggest anything to you?


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

AdamM said:


> I'm skeptical of ranking Wiggins as a strong favorite because nothing in his grand tour history suggests it. In three week stage races he has a regular pattern of blowing up on key climbs and his time trail results have tended to be good, but nothing at all like dominating performances. If we're going to base TDF performance on one week stage racing then Leipheimer would be a multiple times winner. I hope Wiggins can get over his past and break through similar to Evans, but until he actually does it, reserving a place on the podium or in the yellow jersey seems to be a reach.











that was in a race where he broke his collar bone 2 months before the start. that race was also less than a year ago. does he have to crap rainbows before he would be considered a contender?


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## WAZCO (Sep 16, 2004)

*Janez Brajkovic..,*

I'm going with the Slovenian. I know he's not in the radar right now but I think pull an upset among the favorites!


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## OhSnap (Jun 21, 2012)

erj549 said:


> -Sagan grabs yellow at the prologue.
> -Voeckler won't be allowed into any more breaks. Ever.
> -Wiggins is toast by week 3. There's a reason everyone but him trains in peaks. This isn't swimming, after all.
> -Cav gets Sagan'd multiple times.
> ...


I have been readying theses forums for a long time and enjoy them but this post got me registered. 

I think your observation about Voeckler is spot on. I really enjoyed watching him try so hard last year to hold onto yellow that I began rooting for him. I obviously know none of these guys but just love the heart he shows and hope the knee injury is not serious. I have never rooted for a frenchman before but I will for Voeckler.

Anxious for the Sagan/Cav rivalry.

For what its worth my guesses.....
Yellow-Evans
Green-Sagan
Poka-Hoogerland
Team-Liquigas only because I have a Cannondale
Rooting-For it to start!


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

I really don't think Voeckler caused any of the contenders any worry. He cracked in the mountains and lost time on the last tt.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

WAZCO said:


> I'm going with the Slovenian. I know he's not in the radar right now but I think pull an upset among the favorites!


nice choice for a dark horse.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

WAZCO said:


> I'm going with the Slovenian. I know he's not in the radar right now but I think pull an upset among the favorites!





weltyed said:


> nice choice for a dark horse.


That is an extremely dark horse. Has he ever done well over 3 weeks?

I was looking over the route. There are only 2 summit finishes in this Tour. Looking more like a TTer's race every day.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

davidka said:


> That is an extremely dark horse. Has he ever done well over 3 weeks?
> 
> I was looking over the route. There are only 2 summit finishes in this Tour. Looking more like a TTer's race every day.


That's what I thought. But I just looked over the route again, and some of the mountain stages without MTFs have some really steep and nasty climbs. Sky showed some real dominance in controlling the Dauphiné, but more severe stages over 3 weeks will be something else.

July is shaping up to be very interesting indeed (and not just because our second is due on the 29th :yikes


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

foto said:


> I really don't think Voeckler caused any of the contenders any worry. He cracked in the mountains and lost time on the last tt.


He still did pretty well in the last mountain for a guy who was never much of a GC rider and put in a top 10 TT. Had Flecha and Hoogerland not been crashed out of that breakaway, I think he would have been seriously flirting with a podium finish.


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

MattSoutherden said:


> Why do you think he's not training to peak for the Tour?


He has a new swimming (which, I will note, is not biking) coach who is having him be at 95-96% throughout the entire season and ignoring the whole peaking style of preparation. It's served him well so far, but I can't see how he's going to stay that strong through the rigors of a three-week tour. We shall see.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

WAZCO said:


> I'm going with the Slovenian. I know he's not in the radar right now but I think pull an upset among the favorites!


Hopefully the wind doesn't break his 70lbs body in two in the first week...


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

If Ryder will make ala Pantani move, he can no doubt win this year's TDF.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

vismitananda said:


> If Ryder will make ala Pantani move, he can no doubt win this year's TDF.


Pantani's moves worked because a significant amount of competition was removed or "abandoned" that year for reasons that I should hope are obvious. Festina alone had a stacked lineup of guys who were fresher and could have possibly exceeded Pantani's climbing.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

spade2you said:


> He still did pretty well in the last mountain for a guy who was never much of a GC rider and put in a top 10 TT. Had Flecha and Hoogerland not been crashed out of that breakaway, I think he would have been seriously flirting with a podium finish.


Voekler dropped out of Dauphine due to knee pain. Not a great way to lead up to le tour. Of course he is French and this is le tour which has always been a great motivator for the French.


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## mrcreosote (Sep 9, 2010)

erj549 said:


> He has a new swimming (which, I will note, is not biking) coach who is having him be at 95-96% throughout the entire season and ignoring the whole peaking style of preparation. It's served him well so far, but I can't see how he's going to stay that strong through the rigors of a three-week tour. We shall see.


I read recently that his approach is more about "don't use races as training" - he has him on a more-or-less continuous training regime, rather than expecting to use the first week of the tour to ride into fitness.


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## spade2you (May 12, 2009)

spookyload said:


> Voekler dropped out of Dauphine due to knee pain. Not a great way to lead up to le tour. Of course he is French and this is le tour which has always been a great motivator for the French.


I am not doubting he will be unable to repeat last year's tour, I was just not bashing what he did last year in the mountains and final TT. Given that he built up most of his time in a breakaway, it's doubtful that he'll be allowed to do that again.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

spade2you said:


> I am not doubting he will be unable to repeat last year's tour, I was just not bashing what he did last year in the mountains and final TT. Given that he built up most of his time in a breakaway, it's doubtful that he'll be allowed to do that again.


With limited mountains to make up the time, I agree completely. Tommy will be kept very much in check


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

spade2you said:


> Pantani's moves worked because a significant amount of competition was removed or "abandoned" that year for reasons that I should hope are obvious. Festina alone had a stacked lineup of guys who were fresher and could have possibly exceeded Pantani's climbing.


Of course everybody knew about that tour, "Tour de Dope". I just wanted to say that Ryder is in great form and in no doubt can win.


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## FlandersFields (Jul 16, 2010)

Wiggins will win it easily. Cadel has an utter shite team, so it'll be difficult for him. But he's the only one who can stay within a minute from Wiggins in TT. Froome is also an advantage Cadel just don't has.

Mollema and Gesink will fall before the first week is over. But if-if they stay upright they have chance for top 5.

VdB, strong but too much TT km's. As a Belgian rooting for him, but when I'm honest...

Spanish, Italians...too much TT.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

OK.....old dark horses.....Andreas Kloden. I have come to respect him over the years. Probably has the best shot out of RNT. Who knows what Franics is going to do. If he or Horner lose significant time to Kloden in the first ITT (stage 9) they should give him the reins.
He could make Wiggins and Cadel nervous on his way to a 3 spot if he is in form.


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## Local Hero (Jul 8, 2010)

Opus51569 said:


> I'm definitely looking forward to Cavendish and Sagan in the sprint finishes.


For me, the Green jersey competition is more interesting than the Yellow Jersey. 

Cavendish is a faster sprinter. If it's a field sprint on a flat(ish) stage, Cav takes it 10 out of 10 on the open road. On the other hand, many of the intermediate sprints come after climbs. Sagan will be there. He has the depth to get to those more difficult sprints minutes ahead of Cav. 

This is where team tactics come into play: Will Sky have someone to mark and neutralize Sagan if he breaks away? Does Sky have the depth to cover a non-GC threat like Sagan while going for both Yellow and Green?

What about sprints with a technical run in? Cav is no slouch but Sagan has superb bike handling skills. 

Of course, the entire tour will be exciting. I'm interested to see how it plays out.


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

Another old dark horse - Menchov. Quiet so far this year, but just won the Russian ITT (I know, not the big leagues), proven 3-week contender, has geared all his training for the TDF this year, REALLY wants it, and may have the good ITT/decent climber combination to be in the mix.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

velojon said:


> Another old dark horse - Menchov. Quiet so far this year, but just won the Russian ITT (I know, not the big leagues), proven 3-week contender, has geared all his training for the TDF this year, REALLY wants it, and may have the good ITT/decent climber combination to be in the mix.


Yes, another workhorse who I would like to see make a run.

Maybe this will be the 'GEEZER' tour, brains and experience against the young guns.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

I have this horrible feeling that Wiggo will have a good tour. This is never a good sign. But he is preferable to Cadel.

I am really looking forward to seeing the results of the super long TT this year. I think this works in Wiggin's favor.


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

DZfan14 said:


> I have this horrible feeling that Wiggo will have a good tour. This is never a good sign. But he is preferable to Cadel.
> 
> I am really looking forward to seeing the results of the super long TT this year. I think this works in Wiggin's favor.


Why is he preferable to Cadel? I know Cadel was accused of being boring and whiny in years past, but since his WC title, he's really been ballsy and animated most of the races he's been in. Like an all-out downhill attack at the TDS just to gain a handful of seconds? That's just plain fun to watch.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

erj549 said:


> Why is he preferable to Cadel? I know Cadel was accused of being boring and whiny in years past, but since his WC title, he's really been ballsy and animated most of the races he's been in. Like an all-out downhill attack at the TDS just to gain a handful of seconds? That's just plain fun to watch.


For me picking between Cadel and Wiggo is like deciding to live in Libya or Syria.

Really, I find Cadel's meltdowns to be more entertaining than his wins. But you're right he really hasn't had one of his famous outbursts since winning his WC.


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

DZfan14 said:


> For me picking between Cadel and Wiggo is like deciding to live in Libya or Syria.


Ha!

I think either of them will be lucky to be on the podium. Seems it could be an interesting and different tour.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

juno said:


> I think either of them will be lucky to be on the podium.


Interesting to at least hear your reasoning.

By my quick calculations, there have been 23 World Tour stage races in 2011/12. Of these, Cadel has won 3, and been on the podium 5 times. Wiggins has won 4, and been on the podium 6 times. That seems to suggest that these guys should be right up there for the podium, no?

As an aside, Sky will have a team that has taken 11 podiums in those races, and 5 wins.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

I can't see who could compete against Wiggo and Cadel right now. The route suits them and they're in shape. Alberto's not there, Nibali is so-so, Basso's worse, one Schleck's not there and the other one is... well he's a Schleck... Valverde hasn't been his usual doped-self lately, Menchov is a has-been, Brajkovic? Van Den Broeck? Gesink? Naaa. Hesjedal... I can't believe he'll be able to be competitive for three more hard weeks... I think Wiggo and Cadel will fight for the win, the others for the remaining podium spot.

Of course, it may not all go according to plans. Crash, caught behind a split napping, sickness and there are always some riders that surprise and perform quite well (Rolland and Froome last year for exemple). Nothing's carved in stones yet!


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Dan Gerous said:


> I can't see who could compete against Wiggo and Cadel right now. The route suits them and they're in shape. Alberto's not there, Nibali is so-so, Basso's worse, one Schleck's not there and the other one is... well he's a Schleck... Valverde hasn't been his usual doped-self lately, Menchov is a has-been, Brajkovic? Van Den Broeck? Gesink? Naaa. Hesjedal... I can't believe he'll be able to be competitive for three more hard weeks... I think Wiggo and Cadel will fight for the win, the others for the remaining podium spot.
> 
> Of course, it may not all go according to plans. Crash, caught behind a split napping, sickness and there are always some riders that surprise and perform quite well (Rolland and Froome last year for exemple). Nothing's carved in stones yet!


Vino!


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

" I cannot over advise the potential protagonists of the next Tour not to limit their reconnaissance trips to the high mountain stages, but on the contrary, to widen their field of study: the Monts du Boulonnais for example, La Planche des Belles Filles in Haute-Saône and the climbs in the Swiss Jura on the road to Porrentruy, will provide an ideal terrain for major offensives. As for the Col du Grand Colombier, in Ain, and the Mur de Péguère, in Ariège, which the riders will climb for the first time, their steep slopes will definitely make a deep impression on them"

- Christian PRUDHOMME
Tour de France 2012 - Editorial

Anybody found any online google maps of the routes yet?


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## juno (Jul 18, 2008)

MattSoutherden said:


> Interesting to at least hear your reasoning.
> 
> By my quick calculations, there have been 23 World Tour stage races in 2011/12. Of these, Cadel has won 3, and been on the podium 5 times. Wiggins has won 4, and been on the podium 6 times. That seems to suggest that these guys should be right up there for the podium, no?
> 
> As an aside, Sky will have a team that has taken 11 podiums in those races, and 5 wins.



True, more of a gut then anything. It seems that teams have been having tragic implosions the last few tours. Evans and Wiggins have strong experienced teams, but we have seen that happen before to strong experienced teams.

Are they the likely favorites, yes. And everyone seems to think it will be down to just the two of them.

The format this year makes me believe it will be more wide open. Less climbing then usual and and no TTT may affect the commonly developed strategies of eliminating contenders in the mountains and then consolidating the win or hanging on to the win in the ITT. If both of them can ride a strong prologue and TWO strong ITT's without any mountain screw-ups it probably will be down to them.

It seems that in the last dozen years teams have been intimidated by Armstrong and Contador teams that they knew they could not contend with in the GC category. The races that those two were not in, or did poorly, made teams be a little more aggressive in the GC category.

Perhaps this year teams are less intimidated with Evans and Wiggins and teams may try to be more aggressive to look for any cracks. I feel that if those two don't dominate or ride very strong from the get go it could be one of the best free-for-alls we have seen in years.
Probably just wishful thinkng, but I want to see some aggressive riding from more then two or three teams going for the GC.


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

Agreed - As strong as Wiggins & Sky have looked, he often has difficulty getting through all 3 weeks without a crash or a bad day. Evans' team is not stellar in support in the high mountains and he is pushing the age barrier at 34. I don't think any contender is intimidated.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

juno said:


> The format this year makes me believe it will be more wide open. Less climbing then usual and and no TTT may affect the commonly developed strategies of eliminating contenders in the mountains and then consolidating the win or hanging on to the win in the ITT. If both of them can ride a strong prologue and TWO strong ITT's without any mountain screw-ups it probably will be down to them.


Thanks for following up. 

I agree that the format this year looks interesting. At first glance, it looks like a somewhat foregone conclusion that Wiggins and Evans are going to be 1-2 / 2-1, but delving a little deeper, some of the stages are quite interesting. There are some really nasty climbs spread around the transition stages, and if some of the climbers want to take the race by the scruff of the neck we could see some great chases for seconds between small groups in the last 10-15k.

The fact that Wiggins is shorter odds that Armstrong was in 2004, after having won 4 straight Tours, is ridiculous imho.

One thing's for certain, I'm looking forward to July.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Ventruck said:


> Well based off what is known of the line ups so far, what do you think?
> 
> Tour de France 2012 confirmed riders list
> 
> ...


to put this thread in perspective, let's look back at speculations about 2011 Tour about this time. I bet very few people (outside Australia) would have picked Cadel. Contador looked invincible after Giro win (almost as impressive as Wiggins looks now, considering TTs) and Andy Schleck was expected to rival Contador again. Van den Broeck and Gesink were considered serious contenders, along with Cadel, but probably more in second tier, behind Contador and Schleck. Nobody thought Tommy Voeckler would challenge for podium.

Someone should dig up those threads from June of 2011, should be interesting.


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## velojon (Mar 8, 2006)

True True - Although we seem to agree who SHOULD win the first two spots, there does not seem to be quite the air of inevitablility about it that there was in the Contador/Armstrong years. The one image I can't escape however, is Wiggins in the Dauphine on the Joux Plane climb with FOUR teammates getting an armchair ride. Aside from his ITT chops, this is what's going to winit for him.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

velojon said:


> True True - Although we seem to agree who SHOULD win the first two spots, there does not seem to be quite the air of inevitablility about it that there was in the Contador/Armstrong years. The one image I can't escape however, is Wiggins in the Dauphine on the Joux Plane climb with FOUR teammates getting an armchair ride. Aside from his ITT chops, this is what's going to winit for him.


possible but "armchair rides" didn't get him to win Vuelta, and likely cost Chris Froome a win overall.

All I am saying is there is a limit of how much team can help.


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## vismitananda (Jan 16, 2011)

Sandy Casar, no doubt will always be in a breakaway. ^_^


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