# Official Tour de France - Stage 7 Barcelona → Arcalis (224km)



## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

Bam! Time for the first mountain stage! The GC will definitely start shaping up for this stage.

Anything can happen. An early break may stick with the GC guys duking it out later, only interested in putting time into other GC riders. Or, a certain few may just shred the field leaving no mercy for anyone.

The third week is the toughest week, so an early GC lead may be hard to hold for the rest of the tour.

Which climber will take it?


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

haha. Climber

Fabien! Fabien!


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## mjdwyer23 (Mar 18, 2009)

Kloden


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## bubbha70 (Aug 8, 2004)

Carlos Sastre.


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## yancy0303 (Feb 13, 2008)

Pelozotti.


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## Fredke (Dec 10, 2004)

iliveonnitro said:


> Which climber will take it?


Igor Antón


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## kokothemonkey (Jul 7, 2004)

All questions answered tomorrow.

Lance.


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## Jim Nazium (Feb 3, 2004)

Contador.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

Alberto Contador


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

Inigo Montoya


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

iliveonnitro said:


> Bam! Time for the first mountain stage! The GC will definitely start shaping up for this stage.
> 
> Anything can happen. An early break may stick with the GC guys duking it out later, only interested in putting time into other GC riders. Or, a certain few may just shred the field leaving no mercy for anyone.
> 
> ...



This one needs a "who will take the stage?" and "who will be in yellow?".


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## 04R1000 (Feb 8, 2004)

Alberto Contador


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

Levi or Pelizotti or Pereiro...i suck at picking.


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## masterken911 (Jun 17, 2009)

ac will win the stage by 30 seconds over sastre and levi. armstrong?? he'll be over a minute back.


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## zphogan (Jan 27, 2007)

Little bit of a flyer, but I'll take Kreuziger.


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## FondriestFan (May 19, 2005)

Van de Velde.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

I've been wrong every time so I might as well be wrong again on purpose:

Pee Wee Herman.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

Sastre


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## dave2pvd (Oct 15, 2007)

Roche


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I don't know.

Would like to see LL, VDV, or Sastre.

Cadel? He looked angry today on stage 6; never seen him look like that before.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

kokothemonkey said:


> All questions answered tomorrow.
> 
> *Lance*.



That would be very cool. :thumbsup:


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Sastre would have a chance. It's a bit of a grinding climb, so maybe Cadel makes for it, or Menchov. 

Hrm.... Cadel is quite far back, but they're not going to give him a leash at all, since he's dangerous in the TT. Menchov could still be cooked from the Giro. Lance may have a go, but AC will likely hang with him, and probably out sprint him for the win unless Lance is cagey.

I'm going to say.....

Sastre


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Alberto Contador, if he wants it. He could 'gift' it to one of his Astana teammates if he wanted to pay it forward, so long as one of them can keep up front with him at the top. Contador would still be a protected rider would be able to keep his nose out of the wind.

Looks like a good place to separate the men from the boys would be just after the 196km mark on that steep grade - perfect for Contador.

If Andy Schleck really has the form to be on the podium this year, I think he will need to show it on this stage.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*another easy answer*

IMO, MAYbe Contador


BUT per my earlier rant thread, I think it will be a buch sprint and Cavendsih will take it by at least 15 minutes.....


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

I don't know who will win the stage but I do know this: after tomorrow the GC portion of the Tour will be effectively over; it will be Contador's Tour to lose. Lance is going to tell Contador on the team bus before the start to do what he did from 1999 to 2005: namely, on the first mountain stage, stamp your authority and pummel your rivals early so they know it's a race for second place in the stages to come.


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## Jim Nazium (Feb 3, 2004)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> I've been wrong every time so I might as well be wrong again on purpose:
> 
> Pee Wee Herman.


Oh, now you're not even trying. Woman up and give us a real guess.


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## albert owen (Jul 7, 2008)

Cadel Evans to win narrowly over Sastre Lance to take Yellow with Contador gaining 10 seconds on him.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Contador


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## Andrew1 (May 27, 2009)

Alberto Contador


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## Red Sox Junkie (Sep 15, 2005)

Alberto Contador is my pick, but I think a break may win the day.


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## BroughAJ (Jul 19, 2008)

*Carlos Sastre* rides hard and wins in Spain while Lance finishes the day wearing yellow.


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## SlowMo (Apr 18, 2006)

You know there's going to be an early break. My prediction is that Astana will set back a little while, then go on the attack and try to effectively shut this tour down by the end of tomorrow. I don't know what LA has in his tank, but if he has anything (which I truly think he does); I think they'll start pushing extremely hard midway thru; him and AC together. I don't see LA letting AC go without him; nor do i think AC will try to put it to his team mate. Alot of tour to go, so they can work the particulars out later for this whole "team leader saga" to play out; but get one of them in yellow tomorrow. 

No bunch sprint - I don't think the sprinters will be there to sprint. Cavendish got dropped today; so how will he be there tomorrow?


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## BassNBrew (Aug 4, 2008)

Contador


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## bobski (Aug 12, 2005)

I see Sastre going for it. Being defending champ, he knows he's got to take some time back every chance he gets. Plus, being in Spain will be extra incentive.

Astana has the tactical advantage, so they don't have to go on the offensive. They'll use their firepower to mark the GC threats.

LA and AC will finish together putting Lance in yellow.


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## frenchyxc (Jul 30, 2008)

i really really really hope its an euskaltel rider, but i'm gonna go with carlos sastre.


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## RipTide (May 4, 2007)

Menchov


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

I think 1 of 3 things will happen.

1. Contador will demolish everybody ala lance in his prime.
2. Popo (15th overall) will go in an early break to put pressure on other teams to chase, when they catch him, Contador will stomp everyone into the ground since they were working so hard.
3. A break will stick and Contador or Lance will attack, while the other sits back with the rest of the GC, getting a free ride. Like the 2007 tour ala Contador/Levi.

I think Andy Schleck is a better climber than Contador, so he could very well win the stage (but not the overall because of the time trial).

But, alas, I will pick Alberto Contador because he is the most consistant.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Schleck the Jr.


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## jupiterrn (Sep 22, 2006)

JohnHenry said:



> Levi or Pelizotti or Pereiro...i suck


fixed


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## baker921 (Jul 20, 2007)

Alberto Contador


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## oarsman (Nov 6, 2005)

*carlos sastre*

.... though would not be surprised if Evans takes it.


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## Sojourneyman (Jun 22, 2007)

zphogan said:


> Little bit of a flyer, but I'll take Kreuziger.


THAT's a good pick. Liquigas has silently done quite well for themselves


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## Guest (Jul 9, 2009)

oarsman said:


> .... though would not be surprised if Evans takes it.


For that to happen, everyone else would have to have abandoned.


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## somdoosh (Jul 21, 2008)

Astana treats it like an uphill TTT, they break away (or follow the first breakaway that leaves) as a group and ride hard all the way to the finish. They have four podium contenders, all strong climbers, why the hell wouldn't they do it as a show of strength? Lance, Alberto, Levi, Andreas.


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## atimido (Jun 17, 2009)

Contador


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

Luis León Sánchez


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## Nimitz (Jul 8, 2004)

moonmoth said:


> Luis León Sánchez


nice pick...

I'll go with Jens Voigt as a wild card...

Chad


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

moonmoth said:


> Luis León Sánchez


Thats a good pick but I think he is stage 8.


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## hllclmbr (Jul 30, 2006)

SlowMo said:


> No bunch sprint - I don't think the sprinters will be there to sprint. Cavendish got dropped today; so how will he be there tomorrow?


Now that's a bold prediction!


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## barelfly (Nov 7, 2008)

lance to win and take the yellow!


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## hllclmbr (Jul 30, 2006)

RipTide said:


> Menchov


Have you watched any of this years Tour?

I suspect he will drop out of the race before the final climb.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Jim Nazium said:


> Oh, now you're not even trying. Woman up and give us a real guess.


Yikes. Very difficult this one simply because so many team dynamics are in play here. I don't think Cont's going to attack big on this one but rather keep people in check. There are still more mountains to come in the next couple of days. 

But I also don't think he wants to "gift" anybody either from his own team, or any other team.

I think he'll win, but not by a minutes. 

I'd like to see LA, Sastre or Levi come away with it, but I'll be happy if those three are there to mark attacks and hang. 

Btw, didn't Pee Wee win?


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

toomanybikes said:


> For that to happen, everyone else would have to have abandoned.



The _only_ pre-Tour prediction I have been correct in (thus far)..."Evans is toast this year, I'm afraid."


He may prove me wrong tomorrow.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

I thought sanchez wasn't in le tour this year. Maybe I am thinking of Sammy sanchez. 

I think it will go to someone nobody expects. But because nobody expects them, I will go with Carlos sastre. I thought cadel might continue his job interview for next year, but I don't know if he can grind it out solo.


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

Contador can't afford to have Lance drop him or even win the stage with him on the wheel. Once LA has yellow on his back, it's going to be significantly harder for Contador to take it from him. (who are we kidding, it's Astana's stage and race to lose).


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## a_avery007 (Jul 1, 2008)

many people will be in the mix
so here goes:
schleck
sastre
AC/LA combo
evans
leip
vande

all within 1 minute of each other...lol


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

Unknown Spanish rider takes an early flyer. LA and AC mark each other until LA hits some difficulty and loses time. Sastre puts in attacks and drops most contendors but AC takes the stage.

Astana burns off all their riders other than LA and AC holding tempo. Astana podium sweep dreams fade into history.


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

No risk pick - Contador - with LA on his wheel


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## DarkSaturn (May 11, 2007)

Alberto Contador


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## biobanker (Jun 11, 2009)

I take Sastre for the stage

Go Lance! Time to go get yourself something in yellow!


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## 88 rex (Mar 18, 2008)

Christian VDV


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## fontarin (Mar 28, 2009)

Sastre for the stage.

I'm thinking Lance will lose some time, but he's pretty sneaky, so we'll see.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Contador will take it for sure. There's no question Astana will be in yellow as the next viable contender outside Astana is Vandevelde at 1'16". So there's nothing holding Astana from having to carry the burden of yellow. Hence, we'll see Contador go all out to assert his authority that he's the boss here; whip his disciples into line to do their respective duty for the rest of the tour.


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## Slow Eddie (Jun 28, 2004)

Contador. Even if doesn't take the stage, he'll be high up enough to score me points.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Hey, I'm just happy to be able to see it live, I worked hard to get the morning free. First time since the prologue I've been able to do that.

I say Astana rides tempo and controls, and on the final climb Contador launches a series of explosive attacks. He either rides away or Armstrong attacks over the top.

Not that I have much confidence in that.


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## SRV (Dec 26, 2006)

Igor Anton. Euskatel will want to make a showing, and I think the contenders will simply mark each other at this stage.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Kreuziger for the stage, Contador in yellow.


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## teleposer (Jul 24, 2006)

Alberto Contador :thumbsup:


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## KMan (Feb 3, 2004)

*Carlos Sastre*

Too early and with major team dynamics in play I don't think any of the serious GC contenders will go for the stage win this early in the race, but will allow someone a bit further down take the stage and follow in just behind to keep any serious time margins from getting out of hand....so I'm going to pick Carlos Sastre.

.....but time will tell


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## Falling Snow (Apr 2, 2008)

Roman Kreuziger


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Good for you folks that get to watch. Enjoy! 

I just don't think I can tell my patients, "Sorry you're having difficulty breathing but I've got to go check on the race be back in a second kay..?" 

It's going to be a rough morning at work.


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## bornin53 (Sep 3, 2005)

*The Guy Who Won the Last 3 GTs He Entered*

i.e., triple crown winner Alberto Contador of Spain.


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## markaz (Sep 21, 2005)

*pick*

Lance.....ac in tow


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## lalahsghost (Aug 27, 2007)

Carlos Sastre

Stage Seven is the radio free-day, no?


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## g29er (Mar 28, 2009)

I am a Lance fan all the way. But after watching Contador these past few years, he looks all kinds of strong and I see him just dropping guys all over the mountains. Tommorrow he will have enormous fan support and that can play a huge role. 

Then again,Lance is never to be underestimated. If Lance wants to win, he's going to have to dig really deep and find that special place. 

It will be interesting. I can't wait.


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## MSH (Jul 16, 2006)

what i would love to see..
-Levi, VDV, & LA finish 1,2,3

But I'm going with A Schleck and AC fighting it out at the finish with Schleck powering out the stage win

MSH


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

Alberto Contador


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## brentster (Jul 12, 2007)

Alberto Contador


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## Jokull (Aug 13, 2007)

Carlos Sastre

And, since I won't be near a computer over the weekend, can I get my picks for Saturday and Sunday in ahead of time:
Stage 8 - David Moncoutie
Stage 9 - Luis Leon Sanchez


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## jd3 (Oct 8, 2004)

Kloden goes in a break so the other teams have to do the chasing until the hill gets steep. Levi and other Astana riders set killer pace tearing up the field. Lance and AC take off, AC wins, Lance takes yellow.


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## tete de la tour (Oct 26, 2006)

Evans is the stongest guy in the race right now. I think you guys are giving contador too much credit. The giro and the Vuelta are not the tour. these are longer climbs. When he has race on these climbs he does not race like he does on the shorter steep climbs of the other GT's. He got dropped by LL in 07, Cadel at the DL. I think cadel or schlecks are going to surprise the group , also the liguigas boys are for real. I'll see you guys tommorrow. Also heard lances power numbers are up there with AC. I guess we will see. 

Evans wil show his strength. and for those who did not see him attack at the DL. I think you will be surprised


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## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

Alberto Contador s.v.p.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Good for you folks that get to watch. Enjoy!


Yes, it's a nice unemployment 'benefit'


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## FredBlack (Sep 6, 2006)

Cadel Evans


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

it will be 5 men or more finishing together i think..


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## jitters (Jul 8, 2007)

Contador. He's been talking about Andorre for the last few days.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

Carlos Sastre.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

I finally get to say this: I pick Alberto Contador for the win today. 

The who giro he disappointed me


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## waitforme (Jan 20, 2007)

I'll play safe today - Alberto Contador thanks


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## nOOky (Mar 20, 2009)

Probably be a good day for a solo breakaway rider to take the stage win. The main gc guys will mark each other and play a wait and see game, it's still early yet. No one will get away, and attacks will be there but limited. Out of that leading group, LA will take yellow and keep his 19 seconds over AC for now. I can see Andy Schleck attacking today, he's an agressive young rider and isn't afraid to do so. Sastre and Evans won't even try anything, the Astana led pace will be too high for a serious move. LA will simply ride to keep his position, it's too early and not the place he wants to show what he has in his legs.


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## Kram (Jan 28, 2004)

Carlos Sastre. I think he takes off and the other GC guys won't bother to reel him in. Evans, little whiner that he is, will give feeble try and not do anything....


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## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

Kram said:


> Evans, little whiner that he is, will give feeble try and not do anything....


Like he did in the Giro? Do you even watch these races?


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Lance is hanging in there so far. See what happens on the HC climb.


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## WinstonSmith (Apr 25, 2009)

lets hope this stage lives up to the hype. Seems like often they don't.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

So far the stage has been fairly ordinary..


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## WinstonSmith (Apr 25, 2009)

Its putting me to sleep.I want drama, excitement.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

WinstonSmith said:


> Its putting me to sleep.I want drama, excitement.


Wait until the final climb...


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## iliveonnitro (Feb 19, 2006)

Spunout said:


> Like he did in the Giro? Do you even watch these races?


Cadel Evans attack in every race he has a chance at doing well....except the Tour de France.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

WinstonSmith said:


> Its putting me to sleep.I want drama, excitement.




You could always get out on your own bike.


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## WinstonSmith (Apr 25, 2009)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> You could always get out on your own bike.


ha! I will do that later today.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

"my goodness it's a Rabobank rider yet again"

Ligget on latest crash


LOL!


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

Levi down in that crash - trying to catch up


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## brentster (Jul 12, 2007)

tete de la tour said:


> Evans is the stongest gay in the race right now.


Amen brother.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

FC has cracked! Lance might have his next yellow!!!!!


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

Astana is doing a medium pace. I thought they would have ripped it. What is Bruyneel up to??


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## mjdwyer23 (Mar 18, 2009)

Dunno, I hope the break survives.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

they are going to wait until the ITT or Vontoux - its a long race

unless someone else attacks here - Evans/Schleck

best guess anyway


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

BORING no one is attacking.. Conty is a wuss.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

It's so early yet... put Lance in yellow and hold it. Leave the explosive power in reserve..


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

Schleck is weak.

no attack ..

schleck = cadel = vdv = WHEELSUCKERS


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## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

Yawwn. There should be six/seven man teams, just like the Badger said.


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

Go Brice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## WinstonSmith (Apr 25, 2009)

shabbasuraj said:


> BORING no one is attacking.. Conty is a wuss.


It's looking like he is Lance's byotch.


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

WinstonSmith said:


> It's looking like he is Lance's byotch.


Conty should have attacked at the 5 km


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## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

shabbasuraj said:


> Schleck is weak.
> 
> no attack ..
> 
> schleck = cadel = vdv = WHEELSUCKERS


You are now proven wrong.


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

OMG cadel attacked.

hell froze over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

wow 1 attaq.

cadel. got reeled in..
can he do it again.?


















(no)


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

The earth is spinning into the sun! Cadel Evans attacks!!!1


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

kbiker3111 said:


> The earth is spinning into the sun! Cadel Evans attacks!!!1


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

conty is gone


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

AC attacked! Lance isn't responding much..


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## mjdwyer23 (Mar 18, 2009)

Lance playing D?


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

la just got gapped


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

Go Brice


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

Conty just laid down the wood


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Lance is going into support mode! Wow


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

la got busted.


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

conty punked all the gc rivals. cadel started it.. again but did not finish what he started.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

AC did an amazing job jumping that split.. So close for the top few!!


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## WinstonSmith (Apr 25, 2009)

Versus's Lance bubble just got popped.


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## brentster (Jul 12, 2007)

Donde esta Sastre?


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

Conty "should" be in yellow. or that other NOCINTINNI sp? guy might have done enough.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

WinstonSmith said:


> Versus's Lance bubble just got popped.


Not really.. We've never been told Lance was the main GC man for Astana. AC took off and Lance held on for support. He certainly didn't crack. I think he's just playing his cards intelligently.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

Contador looked mighty strong.


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## yessl (Nov 1, 2005)

shabbasuraj said:


> Conty "should" be in yellow. or that other NOCINTINNI sp? guy might have done enough.




Standing	Rider	Rider number bib	Team	Time	Gaps
1.	NOCENTINI Rinaldo	87	AG2R-LA MONDIALE	25h 44' 32" 
2.	CONTADOR Alberto	21	ASTANA	25h 44' 38"	+ 00' 06"
3.	ARMSTRONG Lance	22	ASTANA	25h 44' 40"	+ 00' 08"
4.	LEIPHEIMER Levi	24	ASTANA	25h 45' 11"	+ 00' 39"
5.	WIGGINS Bradley	58	GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM	25h 45' 18"	+ 00' 46"


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

la looked like HE COULD NOT ATTACK.


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

I think the story of the day is that CADEL ATTACKED? 










LOL so maybe he does not want the yearly WHEELSUCKER jersey which still belongs to VDV and LEVI.


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## iamnotfilip (Jul 9, 2007)

Contador needed to do this, because otherwise Lance could have ended up in yellow and the team politics could have played a big burden on him with Lance and his ways.

This was just a big FU to Lance, telling him you are not going to be in yellow, I'm better than you.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

shabbasuraj said:


> la looked like HE COULD NOT ATTACK.



More like we could not tell if LA could attack from what we could see.


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## kbiker3111 (Nov 7, 2006)

Next question, can Nocewhati hold the jersey through tomorrow?
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stages/stage-8


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

shabbasuraj said:


> I think the story of the day is that CADEL ATTACKED?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Levi is a support rider.


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## kokothemonkey (Jul 7, 2004)

shabbasuraj said:


> la looked like HE COULD NOT ATTACK.


Dude please. LA's pace this year is the same as Evans/Wiggins/the rest? He was holding back, it's going to come down to ventoux and the time trial.


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## WinstonSmith (Apr 25, 2009)

ZoSoSwiM said:


> Not really.. We've never been told Lance was the main GC man for Astana. AC took off and Lance held on for support. He certainly didn't crack. I think he's just playing his cards intelligently.


Yeah, Lance was very impressive but I could hear the disappointment in Phil and Paul's voices. I even think Phil accidentally called it the Tour de Lance in one exciting moment.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

iamnotfilip said:


> Contador needed to do this, because otherwise Lance could have ended up in yellow and the team politics could have played a big burden on him with Lance and his ways.
> 
> This was just a big FU to Lance, telling him you are not going to be in yellow, I'm better than you.



So by that kind of thinking does it mean that if LA beats AC in the ITT that would be a big FU to Alberto, telling him you are not TDF winning time trialer, I'm better than you?


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

If it comes down to the ITT and the last mountain and Lance out does contador then so be it.. Lance would never be expected to hold back.. and neither would AC.. As long as the interteam competition doesn't hurt the team over all go all out!


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

kokothemonkey said:


> Dude please. LA's pace this year is the same as Evans/Wiggins/the rest? He was holding back, it's going to come down to ventoux and the time trial.



Yep... they're 2 seconds apart. Stage 15 probably won't be significant as far the GC is concerned.


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## iamnotfilip (Jul 9, 2007)

rocco said:


> So by that kind of thinking does it mean that if LA beats AC in the ITT that would be a big FU to Alberto, telling him you are not TDF winning time trialer, I'm better than you?


In a way yes. It would definitely put a damper on Contador who seems to want to prove that he can out perform Lance in every single way, mind games and all.

But in reality it's the overall lead that would hurt both riders the most. That's why I think Alberto put a big hurt on Lance today.


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## shabbasuraj (May 14, 2005)

rocco said:


> Levi is a support rider.


true,


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## jptaylorsg (Apr 24, 2003)

Seems to me that Astana saw the yellow was up for grabs and that someone up the road might get it, they said whoever can go get it, go. AC went, and no one could hang on. When LA got gapped, he went on the defensive and grabbed onto Cadel. They both looked strong, but AC went like a race car.

Seems like pretty good team riding.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

iamnotfilip said:


> In a way yes. It would definitely put a damper on Contador who seems to want to prove that he can out perform Lance in every single way, mind games and all.
> 
> But in reality it's the overall lead that would hurt both riders the most. That's why I think Alberto put a big hurt on Lance today.


Meh... It was obvious that LA was doing exactly what he should have done in that situation with a teammate up the road... so much for the bad teammate arguments. 

2 seconds make a big hurt not. LA is sitting pretty looking down the road (barring illness or major mishap) and he's coming out smelling like a rose.


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

The biggest surprises for me: Lance staying with the leaders (except Contador) and Bradley Wiggins.


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

fornaca68 said:


> The biggest surprises for me: Lance staying with the leaders (except Contador) and Bradley Wiggins.


Why? I think people forget how GOOD he really sis.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

tete de la tour said:


> Evans is the stongest guy in the race right now. I think you guys are giving contador too much credit. The giro and the Vuelta are not the tour. these are longer climbs. When he has race on these climbs he does not race like he does on the shorter steep climbs of the other GT's. He got dropped by LL in 07, Cadel at the DL. I think cadel or schlecks are going to surprise the group , also the liguigas boys are for real. I'll see you guys tommorrow. Also heard lances power numbers are up there with AC. I guess we will see.
> 
> Evans wil show his strength. and for those who did not see him attack at the DL. I think you will be surprised


No i think we had it pretty much dialed in, not surprised at all.


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

iamnotfilip said:


> That's why I think Alberto put a big hurt on Lance today.


I really wonder if Lance could not keep up with Contador today. Alberto just rode away with ease.


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## ROAD&DIRT (Mar 27, 2009)

Contador then Armstrong


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

> Originally Posted by *tete de la tour*
> Evans is the stongest guy in the race right now


Huh?

Lance and Contador reeled him in with ease. Then Alberto made him eat some dust with little effort. Cadel is done this year. Unless he is playing possum.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

fornaca68 said:


> The biggest surprises for me: Lance staying with the leaders (except Contador) and Bradley Wiggins.



Stage 15 will be a wash with regard to LA and AC. LA will likely put time into AC in the flat 40K ITT by 10s of seconds... maybe a minute and take the yellow. We'll see what happens on Mt. Ventoux.


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## Bolo Grubb (Aug 25, 2004)

This below from someone else on another thread could makes sense.

There is already a rift between Bruyneel and the Astana ownership over the financial issues from earlier in the year. Vino's recent press conference and other comments from the ownership which seemed to back up Vinokourov's comments certainly didn't help. Johan literally saved the team from being run out of the UCI two years ago and the Vino / Astana behavior is pretty thankless.

I think Johan and Lance are already out the door in their own minds. Lance has made it clear that he wants to own a team.

Add it all up and it's a done deal.

The SMART thing for Lance to do would be to accept that he can't beat Contador in the mountains and become his superdomestique. This will solidify the Spaniard's appreciation and loyalty, bringing him into the "Team LiveStrong" fold for next year as their leader since he is definitely the Grand Tour rider for years to come. Astana obviously wants him but Lance could successfully make the case that the Astana ownership can't be trusted based on their behavior this year.

Lance would also set himself up as the statesman of cycling and solidify his legend even further by being the loyal lieutenant and mentor. May be what he's had in mind all along. We'll see.

Having Contador for the Grand Tours and Tyler Finney for the Classics would make "Team LiveStrong" the super franchise of cycling.

If there is an Astana power struggle, it would be a bad idea because it will polarize fans and tarnish reputations. The more I think about it, the more I think that Lance is savvy enough to take the high road (no pun intended) and become even more of a legend in the process.

A couple of days ago, I was thinking he's trying to win another one. Now I'm beginning to think he's going another way. If so, it would be good business and I think that's ultimately what he's about.


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## north_of_us (May 10, 2006)

Dido on the Ventoux. Lance kind of set up a possible show down for the next 2 summits, saying that there will be only a couple of us left to throw down. He also played the big teammate role by saying I could only catch someones wheel to go after him, true but come on LA, Conti fired past you guys like he was ticked off with fire in his belly, there's no way you climb like that now.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Bolo Grubb said:


> This below from someone else on another thread could makes sense.
> 
> There is already a rift between Bruyneel and the Astana ownership over the financial issues from earlier in the year. Vino's recent press conference and other comments from the ownership which seemed to back up Vinokourov's comments certainly didn't help. Johan literally saved the team from being run out of the UCI two years ago and the Vino / Astana behavior is pretty thankless.
> 
> ...



It's Phinney... not Finney... or Fini... Don't count the chickens yet.


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

Bolo Grubb said:


> This below from someone else on another thread could makes sense.
> 
> There is already a rift between Bruyneel and the Astana ownership over the financial issues from earlier in the year. Vino's recent press conference and other comments from the ownership which seemed to back up Vinokourov's comments certainly didn't help. Johan literally saved the team from being run out of the UCI two years ago and the Vino / Astana behavior is pretty thankless.
> 
> ...


That's would be a smart business move, but I doubt it will happen.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Wow, Lance Armstrong really sucks. He is a washed up, old, has been. Contador just totally embarrassed him and annihilated any GC hopes that he had. He should have stayed retired since he obviously can't keep up with everyone else anymore.....


Lance is in third place, 8 seconds off of the yellow jersey AFTER a high mountains stage. He comfortably hung with the best climbers in the world and rode off almost the entire peloton. His teammate went up the road and he did exactly what he should have done. 

I think some people hate Lance Armstrong so bad that when he gets a flat tire they proclaim it as a sign that he is failing. Other people are so wrapped up in the Armstrong/Contador rivalry that they forget that they are both obliged to the team, and IF a showdown is to occur, it will happen near the end of the tour after Armstrong and Contador have annihilated the rest of the GC and it is certain that a team victory is secured and the yellow jersey is up for grabs only between them. That's how I see it, anyway. 

-Chris-


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## north_of_us (May 10, 2006)

Bolo, I highly doubt Lance will take the high rode, waayyyy too much pride and he can only survive in this world if he thinks hes the alpha male. BUT I do agree with you, I for one would respect him more and I think his reputation as a cyclist and owner/manager would skyrocket.


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## DIRT BOY (Aug 22, 2002)

thechriswebb said:


> Wow, Lance Armstrong really sucks. He is a washed up, old, has been. Contador just totally embarrassed him and annihilated any GC hopes that he had. He should have stayed retired since he obviously can't keep up with everyone else anymore.....
> 
> 
> Lance is in third place, 8 seconds off of the yellow jersey AFTER a high mountains stage. He comfortably hung with the best climbers in the world and rode off almost the entire peloton. His teammate went up the road and he did exactly what he should have done.
> ...


XXXXXXXXXXXXXX


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## Fredke (Dec 10, 2004)

thechriswebb said:


> IF a showdown is to occur, it will happen near the end of the tour after Armstrong and Contador have annihilated the rest of the GC and it is certain that a team victory is secured and the yellow jersey is up for grabs only between them. That's how I see it, anyway.


They won't be in that position. The only way either of them can get a lock on the GC is for the other to make a lot of sacrifices to put him there. No team is strong enough to put two riders in 1 & 2 with enough of a gap for them to ignore the rest of the field and battle it out.


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## ZoSoSwiM (Mar 7, 2008)

Lance knows how the game is played. When/if he gets his own team he'll likely dominate over everyone because he'll draw talent from everywhere. People will WANT to ride for his team.. not just because of the money.

Lance won't lay down for this tour but he'll do everything he can to do well. He's in no way out of the GC... but backing up AC in the end would net him a lot of respect.


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

very smart move from jb.. obviously its preplanned by him... he wan contador to gain as much time against the rest of the pack... now contador and lance got better time gap over the pack...


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## iamnotfilip (Jul 9, 2007)

thechriswebb said:


> Wow, Lance Armstrong really sucks. He is a washed up, old, has been. Contador just totally embarrassed him and annihilated any GC hopes that he had. He should have stayed retired since he obviously can't keep up with everyone else anymore.....
> 
> -Chris-


I like how the Lance fans like to push the truth totally the other way in order to make some obvious claims that Contador is just plain stronger and younger seem like it's coming out of some hate for Lance.

No it's not that bad. But come on Lance is really trying to win, and he believed he could do it otherwise he would not come out or think last year's tour was a joke. It's Lance.

Will he shoot himself in the foot by allowing Alberto to beat him head to head, as well as outsmart him? Maybe. If Alberto wins as many Tours as Lance, together with all three Grand Tours, Lance will have no claim to being better than him. And this is why he thought he could get one over the kid with his politics, experience and the calculated media machine, in order to always have this tour to stake a claim that he was better than Alberto. But it looks like the kid outsmarted him and (what was to be expected) out performed him.

That's shy I think this will really hurt Lance.

Of course he can still let his legs do the talking. Dropping Contador just once or beating him in a TT would be enough of a statement, even if he can't get the overall.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Bolo Grubb said:


> This below from someone else on another thread could makes sense.
> 
> There is already a rift between Bruyneel and the Astana ownership over the financial issues from earlier in the year. Vino's recent press conference and other comments from the ownership which seemed to back up Vinokourov's comments certainly didn't help. Johan literally saved the team from being run out of the UCI two years ago and the Vino / Astana behavior is pretty thankless.
> 
> ...




It is now conceivable that Lance could do this, as he seems to have matured and is taking a more team-oriented approach to cycling. If Contador decisively distinguishes himself as THE team leader, then I believe that Armstrong would work hard for him. He has been saying things like "I'm sorry" and "it would be wrong to attack because I had a team member up the road" lately. 

I am not convinced, however, that Contador would necessarily appreciate Armstrong's efforts as a super-domestique. In the Vuelta last year, Levi's vicious pacing ripped the field apart in the high mountains and delivered Contador to a 3rd Grand Tour victory. In response, Contador resented Levi's strong showing and accused him of riding too well (tarnishing the greatness of his own lead).


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Fredke said:


> They won't be in that position. The only way either of them can get a lock on the GC is for the other to make a lot of sacrifices to put him there. No team is strong enough to put two riders in 1 & 2 with enough of a gap for them to ignore the rest of the field and battle it out.



Astana won't annihilate the rest before Mt. Ventoux but judging by the top 20 GC standings now and the characteristic of the remaining stages who do you see being still so overwhelming/dangerous that Astana won't be in position where they manage the others and LA and AC can't battle it out for 1 & 2 at the end? Of course assuming no major illnesses or other unforeseeable disasters.

1 Rinaldo Nocentini (Ita) AG2R La Mondiale 25:44:32 
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:00:06 
3 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:00:08 
4 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 0:00:39 
5 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:00:46 
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:00:54 
7 Tony Martin (Ger) Team Columbia - HTC 0:01:00 
8 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin - Slipstream 0:01:24 
9 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:49 
10 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:01:54 
11 Jérôme Pineau (Fra) Quick Step 0:02:10 
12 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Team Columbia - HTC 0:02:21 
13 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:25 
14 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 0:02:40 
15 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:02:52 
16 Johannes Fröhlinger (Ger) Team Milram 0:02:54 
17 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Liquigas 0:03:03 
18 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence - Lotto 0:03:07 
19 Egoi Martinez De Esteban (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0:03:10 
20 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia - HTC 0:03:16


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

rocco said:


> Stage 15 will be a wash with regard to LA and AC. LA will likely put time into AC in the flat 40K ITT by 10s of seconds... maybe a minute and take the yellow. We'll see what happens on Mt. Ventoux.


I'm curious what LA has done since his comeback that makes you think he can put 10's of seconds (up to a minute) into AC in a 40K ITT???????

I'm not seeing that at all.

Len


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## j3fri (Dec 31, 2006)

wiggin is a surprise package today.. he climbed easily and even pulled the pack at the last part....


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## Maximus_XXIV (Nov 10, 2008)

Garmin has a decent shot of getting a rider on the podium or at least top 5. That would be great to see.


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## ukbloke (Sep 1, 2007)

I won't have computer access this weekend, so I'm going to post my guesses early in this thread. Since these breakaway stages are completely unpredictable and I don't have a brain today I will pick:

Stage 8 - Alberto Contador
Stage 9 - Alberto Contador

and hope to scavenge a few points.


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## shades9323 (Apr 30, 2006)

iamnotfilip said:


> I like how the Lance fans like to push the truth totally the other way in order to make some obvious claims that Contador is just plain stronger and younger seem like it's coming out of some hate for Lance.
> 
> No it's not that bad. But come on Lance is really trying to win, and he believed he could do it otherwise he would not come out or think last year's tour was a joke. It's Lance.
> 
> ...



Contador outperform Lance...yes
Contador outsmarts Lance...not a chance


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Len J said:


> I'm curious what LA has done since his comeback that makes you think he can put 10's of seconds (up to a minute) into AC in a 40K ITT???????
> 
> I'm not seeing that at all.
> 
> Len


He's 3rd on GC in the Tour and only 2 seconds behind AC... not to mention the comparative quality and quantity of pulls he did in the TTT. I think he's better suited for the flat, nontechnical 40K course than AC. 

We'll see... but on the other hand maybe you can't??????


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Maximus_XXIV said:


> Garmin has a decent shot of getting a rider on the podium or at least top 5. That would be great to see.



Yep... it seems like they have a shot at 2nd... but much, much more likely 3rd.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

rocco said:


> He's 3rd on GC in the Tour and only 2 seconds behind AC... not to mention the quality and quantity of pulls he did in the TTT. I think he's better suited for the flat, nontechnical 40K course than AC. We'll see... but on the other hand maybe you can't??????


He's only 2 seconds behind AC because of a once a tour brain fart in a flat stage.

The only evidence at this point is what AC did vs LA in the first TT & the strength AC showed today in the mountains.......combined he lost almost 40 seconds.........based on that, I'm not seeing LA in yellow.

Of course a lot can happen in 2 weeks. 

IMO, based on how AC looked today in the mountains, Lance better take that much time in stage 18 or he has no chance of winning.

Len


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## Fredke (Dec 10, 2004)

iamnotfilip said:


> If Alberto wins as many Tours as Lance, together with all three Grand Tours, Lance will have no claim to being better than him.


In other breaking news, if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bus.

Take a look at tour history: Whether you love Lance or hate him it's almost inconceivable that anyone will win seven tours again.

Lance winning seven did nothing to tarnish the reputations of Merckx. Hinault, Anquetil, or Indurain.

I hope we have seen the end of one man dominating the tour year after year. I hope we can start seeing some real upsets and dark-horse winners. That keeps sport a lot more exciting for me.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

j3fri said:


> wiggin is a surprise package today.. he climbed easily and even pulled the pack at the last part....



Martin has been shining too but yes Wiggins is the revelation, IMO... and the fact that a 37... nearly 38 year old is 3rd and only 2 seconds down on the most obvious pick to win the Tour.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

ukbloke said:


> I won't have computer access this weekend, so I'm going to post my guesses early in this thread. Since these breakaway stages are completely unpredictable and I don't have a brain today I will pick:
> 
> Stage 8 - Alberto Contador
> Stage 9 - Alberto Contador
> ...



Stage wins or 1st on GC? I'd say quite unlikely if you're talking about stage wins.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Fredke said:


> In other breaking news, if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bus.
> 
> Take a look at tour history: Whether you love Lance or hate him it's almost inconceivable that anyone will win seven tours again.
> 
> ...


It's a bit early, but Contador could have 2 tour wins at age 26 if things go well this year. Lance won his first at 27. I wouldn't call the record inconceivable.


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## rocco (Apr 30, 2005)

Len J said:


> He's only 2 seconds behind AC because of a once a tour brain fart in a flat stage.
> 
> The only evidence at this point is what AC did vs LA in the first TT & the strength AC showed today in the mountains.......combined he lost almost 40 seconds.........based on that, I'm not seeing LA in yellow.
> 
> ...



Perhaps... we'll see but you were specifically questioning the match-up in the remaining ITT and you have my answer.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

rocco said:


> Perhaps... we'll see but you were specifically questioning the match-up in the remaining ITT and you have my answer.


So no evidence...just a hunch.  

Fun to speculate.

Len


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## KMan (Feb 3, 2004)

*bad observation...*



shabbasuraj said:


> la looked like HE COULD NOT ATTACK.


imho

Michael


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