# Paris-Roubaix Predictions



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

*4/6/12 EDIT:*Startlist is here.

So, last week we saw arguably saw Cancellara impact the way the race ended even after he left the course. That shattered collarbone and early bow will most assuredly factor into the team strategies this week.

While my children will be hunting eggs a mythical rabbit has hidden around the house, i will be trying to watch Boonen battle the rest of the peloton. Cancellara had troubles with being a marked rider in the past, but Boonen has a secret weapon: Chavanel. I am not saying Chavanel will win, but if Boonen is marked and can't get free, I suspect they will put Chavanel out there. Boonen would miss the hat trick, and his fourth Cobble, but it IS a team sport.

Pippo has come under heavy criticism for the way he rode, or didn't ride, the final few kilometers once it was a race of three. I am not sure he will survive the number of sectors here, and P-R is a race of attrition.

Speaking of surviving sectors, will Thor be a factor? A few years back he almost had a win in his back jersey pocket when he joined the Hincapie Over the Bar Cobble Scar Club. and he has been off form most of the season. Of course there is another BMC rider who has shown he might have the mustard...

We also signs of life from an off-form Gilbert. Will he be able to put it together?

Once I get that start list, I will post more. But let's hear what y'all think! Who will rise from the ashes this Easter Sunday and kiss the cobble?


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## T0mi (Mar 2, 2011)

Gilbert will not be at the start of Paris-Roubaix. He is training for the Ardennes classics instead.


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## JackDaniels (Oct 4, 2011)

Pretty sure Taylor Phinney has replaced Gilbert. Would be nice to see TP poke his face at the pointy end once or twice.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Quick step sure is awesome right now...


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

Boonen still looks good. It is my personal hope Thor will come correct for BMC.

I havent seen the start list but Flecha didnt look horrible in Flanders.

If the rains come, it will be whomever can stay at the front of the race.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

JohnHenry said:


> Boonen still looks good. It is my personal hope Thor will come correct for BMC.
> 
> I havent seen the start list but Flecha didnt look horrible in Flanders.
> 
> If the rains come, it will be whomever can stay at the front of the race.


Found the provisional start list:


My longshots Devolder or Rojas


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## cyclusaddictus (Dec 8, 2011)

Peter Sagan is looking very strong, I would have maybe picked him but he's only on the provisional start list. Boonen, of course, can have an off day like at Flanders and still win, plus he's got the experience. Pozzato was in amazing form too, and says his time has come. How about an outsider, maybe Iglinsky for Astana? very strong lately.


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## Rokh On (Oct 30, 2011)

I don't know how much help Benenati will be but I will go out on a limb and say Pozzato


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## moonmoth (Nov 8, 2008)

I'll go with Thor Hushovd but but my long-shot sentimental favorite would be Hincapie.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Rokh On said:


> I don't know how much help Benenati will be but I will go out on a limb and say Pozzato


difficult to bet against Boonen, but I think Sagan win could be very exciting.


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## wtfbbq (Apr 5, 2012)

JohnHenry said:


> Found the provisional start list:
> 
> 
> My longshots Devolder or Rojas


Devolder hasn't done squat since he was backing Boonen. I had hopes for him but I think he's a quality support rider who can get it done if his captain is marked.


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## Fignon's Barber (Mar 2, 2004)

Picking boonen is too obvious.....i'm going with pozzato.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Boonen


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## allison (Apr 19, 2006)

Hard to bet against Boonen. So much going right for him right now. With rain and being marked might be tough. Not sure Sagan has learned enough this season to take it unless it's a bunch sprint and he can get around Boonen, Flecha, etc. 

I'll be going for Boonen, but it could be a random guy left from a breakaway again. Always exciting.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

I'll go with Sagan again. Hope he's starting it.


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## Bianchi67 (Oct 16, 2005)

Ballan looked the strongest last week but has no sprint. He's my pick to solo in velodrome.


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## wtfbbq (Apr 5, 2012)

Boonen. He's got the legs and experience plus a good team to back him up. He's the man to beat but there are other sprinters who fancy they can beat him in the velodrome. Chavanel is strong too and might benefit from a marked Boonen like Devolder did in '08 and '09 Flanders.

BMC has got to be smarting about the (non) success of their dynamic duo. Thor has been there before and has a strong team. They have extra motivation and Ballan is no slouch either.

Garmin also wants a win. Haussler hasn't lived up to his resurgence talk. Farrar has ridden the race respectably in the past. They have 2011 winner Vansummeren. Don't count them out -- though I expect Farrar rather than any of the others.

I think this is Sagan's first P-R? He's a non-factor.

Let's not forget that Rast was 4th last year and has Bennati along for the ride. Don't count him out. Even without Cancellara they are pretty dangerous.

And lastly, there is Sky. They are bringing Sutton, Boasson Hagen, and Flecha. That is a stacked team right there.

Plus others with a chance since anything can happen in a wet P-R. My pick is Boonen.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Logic says Boonen but Pippo should be good too, he's not as good a sprinter but he seemed stronger in De Ronde... I'm going with Pippo!

I'd like Thor to be up there but I doubt he'll podium, Ballan will probably be the top rider for BMC again.

Vansummeren was near the front in De Ronde until he botched that corner... but he wont be gifted the win this year, maybe top 5, best Garmin rider followed by Sep. Farrar in Roubaix? I don't think he has what it takes.

I'm a big fan of Sagan, and I think he has the form, the power, the speed, but winning Paris-Roubaix the first time he races it? Top 10.


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## wtfbbq (Apr 5, 2012)

Dan Gerous said:


> Logic says Boonen but Pippo should be good too, he's not as good a sprinter but he seemed stronger in De Ronde... I'm going with Pippo!


Forgot about Pippo. Dang. What was I thinking. Not sure if he makes it in a nasty race. If there are early splits, I predict he gets isolated in a hurry. He's still a big threat and won't be marked like Boonen.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

wtfbbq said:


> Forgot about Pippo. Dang. What was I thinking. Not sure if he makes it in a nasty race. If there are early splits, I predict he gets isolated in a hurry. He's still a big threat and won't be marked like Boonen.


Well, Pippo can stick to Boonen's wheel like no others, I doubt he will be caught behind in a split.


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## wtfbbq (Apr 5, 2012)

Dan Gerous said:


> Well, Pippo can stick to Boonen's wheel like no others, I doubt he will be caught behind in a split.


I meant left with no help early. Though that might not matter so much since it is often a race of attrition and a little luck. Stay at the front, don't get left behind in the splits, don't have a mechanical or flat at the wrong time.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk


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## Retro Grouch (Apr 30, 2002)

I don't care who wins, I just want lots of mud for a change.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

*There Will Be Mud*



Retro Grouch said:


> I don't care who wins, I just want lots of mud for a change.




My pick is Boonen but I totally hope there will be mud.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

i dont think pippo can beat boonen at p-r. the ronde had those cobbled climbs. they had boonen on the ropes on that last lil climb. i still believe if that climb had been 10 more meters boonen would have been cooked. but p-r doesnt have the same cobbled climbs. they have long, grinding sectors of cobbles through dust or mud. i dont see pippo winning a flat out race over those roads.

now that i said that, he is sure to win. you heard it here, folks.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

I might upgrade Flecha from longshot, if the weather goes straight to hell.


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## cyclusaddictus (Dec 8, 2011)

Let's go to the bookies....Boonen gets 11:8 odds, Pozzato 15:2, Sylvain Chavanel 11:1 (was 10th in Flanders), Ballan 12:1, Hushovd is in there with 18:1, Terpstra 33:1, O'Grady 50:1, my man Iglinskiy and HIncapie at 66:1. You want a real long shot take Phinney's kid at 250:1...


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## Dynastar (Jun 8, 2007)

Quick Step. Chav does flier. Boonen sits in the chase group. Chav caught Boonen flier. Repeat. Whoever is away last wins. Also Boonen marked is not like Fabian marked. TB doesn't need to get away like FC does. He just needs to be in the front group at the end.

Pozz - No. Overly criticized for not being aggressive enough. Will be too aggressive.

Ballan - PLEASE NO. I hate to see guys under suspicion win races. Especially when you know that they are going to get yanked from the results.

Hushovd - Please. Not on form. Everyone talks about the year that he crashed he could have won. But if you really watch it, the reason he crashed is because he was cooked. Yes, he slipped on the cobbles. But if he was fresher he never would have gone down. 

Garmin - Never. They only won because FC was marked and everyone else was d*cking around.

Sagan - I love that kid, but Top 10 only until he gets more experience/better team

Looks like it is going to be a good race barring crashes/broken equip. Without FC it really changes the dynamic (I hate to say it) for the better. Instead of riding for 3rd, a lot of guys think that they have a shot and hopefully the racing will show that.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

cyclusaddictus said:


> Let's go to the bookies....Boonen gets 11:8 odds, Pozzato 15:2, Sylvain Chavanel 11:1 (was 10th in Flanders), Ballan 12:1, Hushovd is in there with 18:1, Terpstra 33:1, O'Grady 50:1, my man Iglinskiy and HIncapie at 66:1. You want a real long shot take Phinney's kid at 250:1...



Phinney sure looked like he was enjoying the team recon ride, not that I'm saying that I think he'll make the podium. 

It'll be a side interest to see him in his first major classic, the one that he's most naturally suited to. I'm remembering Boonen's first Paris-Roubaix performance in 2002 on this occasion. If Phinney can make himself some good luck and get in with the right guys he could surprise.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Tommeke*

and he will drop the hammer himself at Arenburg forcing the first big selection

Boonen has been marked for years, he doesn't care

Fabian won't be there to attack him while he's back at the Team car


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

Pozzatto is playing a little harder than in the past and looking to redeem his reputation. He will be a factor.

I too have mixed feelings about a rider under suspicion but Ballan is on form and really hungry to win after a dry spell. It is possible that the race can fall apart on the cobbles enough for him to get away. He could win. 

Thor has been known to have a poor early season and look good at Roubaix. He really wants to win this race and I see BMC playing Ballan and Hushovd in the same manner that QS plays Boonen and Chavanel. Send Ballan up the road to win solo or have Thor ready to Sprint it out against Boonen. He is the one person in the race that I think could be competitive with Boonen in a Sprint right now if he can hang on. 

I like Chavanel and he races very very hard. I wouldn't mind seeing him take it. 

Flecha is always there and could do it if luck smiles on him. If he comes into the velodrome with other favorites though, I don't see him winning. 

Hincapie is my sentimental favorite but a win for him would involve very good luck, which is never on his side in this race. 

Barring inconvenient mechanicals or a missed move, Boonen will win. With Cancellara out, no one else is on his level right now. I would have cheered for Boonen against Cancellara but the race would be better with him in it and would have created a much more fair fight between Boonen and everyone else. It is Boonen's race to lose.


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

I want Tommeke to break all records and become a classics champion living legend


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## foofighter (Dec 19, 2008)

weather.com says rain chances are 10% so much for wet weather playing a factor


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## cyclusaddictus (Dec 8, 2011)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Phinney sure looked like he was enjoying the team recon ride, not that I'm saying that I think he'll make the podium.
> 
> It'll be a side interest to see him in his first major classic, the one that he's most naturally suited to. I'm remembering Boonen's first Paris-Roubaix performance in 2002 on this occasion. If Phinney can make himself some good luck and get in with the right guys he could surprise.


I'm with you, Phinney is impressive and when he gets more experience look out. He already won Paris–Roubaix Espoirs twice, and of course the velodrome ending is right up his alley.


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## JackDaniels (Oct 4, 2011)

atpjunkie said:


> Fabian won't be there to attack him while he's back at the Team car


Not fair Fabian get back here! I have all these guys in my way and stuff... :cryin:


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

dynastar: i see where you are goin with the chav/boonen fliers. but you contradict yourself when you say boonen doesn't need to be away to win, just in the velodrome with the others. i can see them send chavanel up front with a SMALL group. the "big gun" chase that forms behind that should have boonen in there. he doesnt cooperate with the chase and the riders get angry, not wanting to pull him to the finish only to have him roast their already-cooked legs. boonen doesnt get the win, but his teammate does.

heck, with radios now the small group up ahead with chavanel knows boonen is in the chase. chavanel knows, so he sits back and doesnt work hard, either. if the chases bridges, QS has a 1-2 fresh-legged punch. but im directuer sportif. and not everything goes as planned. a lot depends on how the race unfolds.


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## gordy748 (Feb 11, 2007)

Lance. On a Trekalizerello. In the rain.

This reminds me of Cluedo, come to think of it.


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## Superdave3T (May 11, 2009)

weltyed said:


> *4/6/12 EDIT:*Startlist is here.
> 
> So, last week we saw arguably saw Cancellara impact the way the race ended even after he left the course. That shattered collarbone and early bow will most assuredly factor into the team strategies this week.
> 
> ...


Veelers and/or Degenkolb with Chavanel and JVS and/or Sep in a 100k+ break with the other favorites eyeing each other but unwilling to close the gap.

-SD


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## Dynastar (Jun 8, 2007)

weltyed said:


> dynastar: i see where you are goin with the chav/boonen fliers. but you contradict yourself when you say boonen doesn't need to be away to win, just in the velodrome with the others.


Haha. I noticed that too while I typed it, but said screw it and left it in. I figured I could have it both ways 

I think I am now changing my vote to BIG GEORGE! BMC throws him in the break just like Garmin did with Van Summ. Leaders dick around and Georgie finally gets his win!!!!! 

I'm curious as to what George's role will be. Will he pull back breaks, be in a break, babysit Phinney?


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

cyclusaddictus said:


> I'm with you, Phinney is impressive and when he gets more experience look out. He already won Paris–Roubaix Espoirs twice, and of course the velodrome ending is right up his alley.


Phinney is overrated because he is an american. I like him, but come on - look at Sagan. He has been knocking on the door for quite some time, and even then I don't think he is a good bet at P-R.


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Dynastar said:


> Haha. I noticed that too while I typed it, but said screw it and left it in. I figured I could have it both ways
> 
> I think I am now changing my vote to BIG GEORGE! BMC throws him in the break just like Garmin did with Van Summ. Leaders dick around and Georgie finally gets his win!!!!!
> 
> I'm curious as to what George's role will be. Will he pull back breaks, be in a break, babysit Phinney?


He will crash and be left behind.

And cry. As usual.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

55x11 said:


> Phinney is overrated because he is an american. I like him, but come on - look at Sagan. He has been knocking on the door for quite some time, and even then I don't think he is a good bet at P-R.


Because he's American?

The two are just within six months of the same age with Sagan being the older. Phinney has done some go stuff on the track and is just beginning his ProTour level career. Sagan (coincidentally nicknamed	: Terminator) is phenomenal and has been on a ProTour team since 2010.

Phinney is 21. Boonen also turned pro and did his first Paris-Roubaix at 21. Before he was on the podium would you have said Boonen was overrated just because he's Belgian?

I don't think you really have enough to go on yet to arrive at the conclusion that Phinney is overrated for any reason let alone just because he's an American. 

Hell, if you were going to say he's overrated because _______ then you would have made a tiny bit more sense if you had said just because he's the son of Davis Phinney and Connie Carpenter.

Come on, indeed.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Because he's American?
> 
> The two are just within six months of the same age with Sagan being the older. Phinney has done some go stuff on the track and is just beginning his ProTour level career. Sagan (coincidentally nicknamed	: Terminator) is phenomenal and has been on a ProTour team since 2010.
> 
> ...


I know who Taylor Phinney is, (thank you for genealogical information though!) but there is no comparison with resume of someone like Sagan, sorry. Sagan was a major player in this year's classics, including a breakaway with Cancellara and some solid chasing work etc. He is also an amazingly fast sprinter from a smaller bunch.

The fact that you would even consider them as somewhat equal proves my point.
U23 P-R is not a strong indicator of success in the future on its own, and since he turned pro, I can see TP being a great short-prologue time trial guy, but I have yet to see anything in his resume to indicate he is a strong favorite to win Paris Roubaix tomorrow.

What this over-hyping does, as was the case year after year with Danielson, and then Zabriskie, as well as Leipheimer, Horner and to some extent Hincapie in classics, is setting the bar so high that a good but not great performance looks like a major disappointment, and we hear excuses after excuses.


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## cyclusaddictus (Dec 8, 2011)

Right, there's no way Phinney is a factor this year or maybe even next. My original point was that in time he will be an excellent rider at this level, once he gets more experience. Big potential there I think, but at this point NO comparison to Sagan.:thumbsup:


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

*Easter Saturday*



55x11 said:


> I know who Taylor Phinney is, (thank you for genealogical information though!) but there is no comparison with resume of someone like Sagan, sorry. Sagan was a major player in this year's classics, including a breakaway with Cancellara and some solid chasing work etc. He is also an amazingly fast sprinter from a smaller bunch.
> 
> The fact that you would even consider them as somewhat equal proves my point.
> U23 P-R is not a strong indicator of success in the future on its own, and since he turned pro, I can see TP being a great short-prologue time trial guy, but I have yet to see anything in his resume to indicate he is a strong favorite to win Paris Roubaix tomorrow.
> ...


I wasn't suggesting that you don't know who Tyler Phinney is; however, you are suggesting that I think things that I actually don't. I most certainly don't think nor have I suggested that I think he's going to win Paris Roubaix tomorrow... Or on Sunday.

Have fun arguing with yourself.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

cyclusaddictus said:


> Right, there's no way Phinney is a factor this year or maybe even next. My original point was that in time he will be an excellent rider at this level, once he gets more experience. Big potential there I think, but at this point NO comparison to Sagan.:thumbsup:


Phinney and Sagan will never have the same qualities or strengths. 

Phinney is certainly no comparison to Sagan in terms of threat to win NOW.

To say Phinney is overrated NOW is an unfounded and premature statement. We'll see...


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

*phew!*



Dynastar said:


> Haha. I noticed that too while I typed it, but said screw it and left it in. I figured I could have it both ways
> 
> I think I am now changing my vote to BIG GEORGE! BMC throws him in the break just like Garmin did with Van Summ. Leaders dick around and Georgie finally gets his win!!!!!
> 
> I'm curious as to what George's role will be. Will he pull back breaks, be in a break, babysit Phinney?


phew. after i posted my response i thought it might have come off snippy. then i logged on and saw the terminatrixator threads. wow. i got all worried my post might infuriate someone. i dont think ive seen it get that chippy in pro cycling since before the great doping split.

i dont think george will babysit phinney. i think george will be watching ballan or other contenders on the team. he may be plan b, as noted before me. 

i am just really excited. gotta get some chimay for that evening. last week i had some delirium. that was goooooood stuff. i cant bring myself to drink the brew during the race, so i usually have a latte or something. tomorrow, to celebrate easter, i will be making eggnog french toast and bacon. yeah, eggnog is for xmas, but they have been tryin to market it for easter the past few years. and i will oblige. if i hadnt picked up the eggnog, i would be makin bacon waffles.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

weltyed said:


> phew. after i posted my response i thought it might have come off snippy. then i logged on and saw the terminatrixator threads. wow. i got all worried my post might infuriate someone. i dont think ive seen it get that chippy in pro cycling since before the great doping split.
> 
> i dont think george will babysit phinney. i think george will be watching ballan or other contenders on the team. he may be plan b, as noted before me.
> 
> i am just really excited. gotta get some chimay for that evening. last week i had some delirium. that was goooooood stuff. i cant bring myself to drink the brew during the race, so i usually have a latte or something. tomorrow, to celebrate easter, i will be making eggnog french toast and bacon. yeah, eggnog is for xmas, but they have been tryin to market it for easter the past few years. and i will oblige. if i hadnt picked up the eggnog, i would be makin bacon waffles.


eeew. Enjoy eating that.


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## cyclusaddictus (Dec 8, 2011)

Weather is shaping up, chilly for the start and only up to maybe 10c in Roubaix, but no rain and sun peaking through. Not likely to be a factor..


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

atpjunkie said:


> Fabian won't be there to attack him while he's back at the Team car


i lol'd


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*of note:*



TerminatorX91 said:


> Phinney and Sagan will never have the same qualities or strengths.
> 
> Phinney is certainly no comparison to Sagan in terms of threat to win NOW.
> 
> To say Phinney is overrated NOW is an unfounded and premature statement. We'll see...


Phinney has won the Espoir version of Roubaix twice


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*I always found it funny*



JohnHenry said:


> i lol'd


that people called Tom 'over the hill' , 'no longer a threat' and failed to notice their new 'classics king' chose to attack while he was back at the car. Bummed me because I wanted a real FC / TB showdown and I found that move less than sporting of a man with his pedigree. 

After their awesome mano a mano duel @ the Ronde, I found this anticlimatic

and for a guy who complains a bit about being the strongest racer and NOT winning because of crap tactics by other riders, he needs a mirror


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

atpjunkie said:


> Phinney has won the Espoir version of Roubaix twice


In 2011 he was 4th overall in the Eneco Tour and 1st in the prologue. He was also 2nd in the prologue during Tour de Romandie. I don't think he finished the ToR.

He hardly raced last year and thus far hardly raced this year so he's basically a Pro level nube and thus largely an unknown quantity.

It's funny that someone is so itching for an argument that they take 'it's going to be interesting seeing Phinney in his first Paris-Roubaix" without any suggestion at all that he's a likely contender to win and turn it into 'he's overrated because he's an American" and because there's currently a 22 year old racing phoneme in Sagan.

I seem to remember at 22 year old phoneme named Damiano Cunego. It seems to me his palmares aren't quite what many would have thought they might be by now looking from the 2004 point of view. He's become a very good classics hunter similar to Paolo Bettini but not what one could have imagined eight years ago.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

atpjunkie said:


> that people called Tom 'over the hill' , 'no longer a threat' and failed to notice their new 'classics king' chose to attack while he was back at the car. Bummed me because I wanted a real FC / TB showdown and I found that move less than sporting of a man with his pedigree.
> 
> After their awesome mano a mano duel @ the Ronde, I found this anticlimatic
> 
> and for a guy who complains a bit about being the strongest racer and NOT winning because of crap tactics by other riders, he needs a mirror


I agree. It's only my opinion. But I think FC would find things a little different in this PR with Tom firing on all cylinders.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

atpjunkie said:


> that people called Tom 'over the hill' , 'no longer a threat' and failed to notice their new 'classics king' chose to attack while he was back at the car. Bummed me because I wanted a real FC / TB showdown and I found that move less than sporting of a man with his pedigree.
> 
> After their awesome mano a mano duel @ the Ronde, I found this anticlimatic
> 
> and for a guy who complains a bit about being the strongest racer and NOT winning because of crap tactics by other riders, he needs a mirror


I never thought he was over the hill but it did seem questionable as to whether he was going to get his head together and do what he needed to rehab that knee and rebuild his form to it's prior glory. 

Like I mentioned before, it seems like him moving back home from Monaco might have helped get back on track.


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

I hear there is more cocaine and young women avaliable at Monaco than in Flanders.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

atpjunkie said:


> that people called Tom 'over the hill' , 'no longer a threat' and failed to notice their new 'classics king' chose to attack while he was back at the car. Bummed me because I wanted a real FC / TB showdown and I found that move less than sporting of a man with his pedigree.
> 
> After their awesome mano a mano duel @ the Ronde, I found this anticlimatic


Tom made a mistake letting himself get too far from Fabian but FC attacked a DOZEN riders, not one, all of whom except perhaps the last 4 watched him do it. It made no difference where Tom was. If a dozen guys couldn't bring 1 back over that distance then there really isn't a sporting conversation to be had, is there?

That said, Tom is in the driver's seat. Anyone else winning will be considered an upset.


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## F45 (Nov 25, 2010)

weltyed said:


> i am just really excited. gotta get some chimay for that evening. last week i had some delirium. that was goooooood stuff. .


Chimay is delicious. My buddy home brews it and puts in an extra half pound of candy sugar to increase the alcohol content. It has the body and bite of a beer with the flavor and alcohol of a wine. Soooo goooooood.


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## matchmaker (Aug 15, 2009)

weltyed said:


> i am just really excited. gotta get some chimay for that evening. last week i had some delirium. that was goooooood stuff.


Chimay is the best beer ever. Beats everything else I have ever tried. Actually I am not even a beer guy, rather a wine aficionado, but whenever I can I order a Chimay bleue.


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## mudge (May 15, 2010)

Tchmil


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## cyclusaddictus (Dec 8, 2011)

mudge said:


> Tchmil


LOL...no,no - Kelly. Or maybe Moser.


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## pretender (Sep 18, 2007)

davidka said:


> Thpat said, Tom is in the driver's seat. Anyone else winning will be considered an upset.


That is overstating it. Lots of great riders in the field, and anything can happen.

I'd love to see Thor get it. Or Pozatto. But I'm also a huge Boonen fan.

_It's all good._ 8D


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## cyclusaddictus (Dec 8, 2011)

Here's another motivation for Boonen - only one other person has won 4 times (Roger De Vlaeminck-1972, 1974, 1975, 1977). I'm sure he'll be thinking about that.


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

moonmoth said:


> I'll go with Thor Hushovd but but my loooooooooooooong-shot sentimental favorite would be Hincapie.



Agreed; and FIFY  .


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## Tugboat (Jul 17, 2006)

Hayden Roulston - RSNT is my outside bet.


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## Salsa_Lover (Jul 6, 2008)

It is snowing today in Zurich, anybody knows how is the weather like up north ?

EDIT : 8° and Cloudy at Roubaix


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## sbn (Apr 8, 2012)

Bonen looks really good to win. We will have to see soon. My TV is already on the eurosport channel and I am ready to watch :-D


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

atpjunkie said:


> Phinney has won the Espoir version of Roubaix twice


21 year old first timer, Taylor Phinney comes in at 15th place, 4:37 down. 

He totally should have won this race. All the others ahead of him are old men... 27, 28, 29, 30...

Yep... Totally overrated American.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*if you couldn't predict this one*



rpelotoon said:


> Yay. My predictions were right!


you haven't been paying attention


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

Where was Peter Sagan today? ;-?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*nice work kid*



TerminatorX91 said:


> 21 year old first timer, Taylor Phinney comes in at 15th place, 4:37 down.
> 
> He totally should have won this race. All the others ahead of him are old men... 27, 28, 29, 30...
> 
> Yep... Totally overrated American.


Sagan wasn't in top 86, did he finish?

Mini Phinney finished with Thor


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

atpjunkie said:


> Sagan wasn't in top 86, did he finish?
> 
> Mini Phinney finished with Thor


Phinney did his job. 

Peter Sagan's brother Juraj started but finished outside of the time limit. Peter didn't start.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*not true*



davidka said:


> Tom made a mistake letting himself get too far from Fabian but FC attacked a DOZEN riders, not one, all of whom except perhaps the last 4 watched him do it. It made no difference where Tom was. If a dozen guys couldn't bring 1 back over that distance then there really isn't a sporting conversation to be had, is there?
> 
> That said, Tom is in the driver's seat. Anyone else winning will be considered an upset.


you need to clarify

a dozen riders who refused to work because Tom Boonen was with them. 

Tom didn't make a mistake, all riders go back to their cars for food, drink and discussion

it made a huge difference where Tom was. Had Tom been there Fabian would not have gone. In fact Fabian went when Bjarne saw Tom at the car and told him to go. That would fall under 'makes a difference'

Bjarne counted on the in-fighting, had they organized and worked together Bjarne would have radio'd to Fabian to not continue. It's all been discussed by Bjarne himself


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Phinney and Sagan will never have the same qualities or strengths.
> 
> Phinney is certainly no comparison to Sagan in terms of threat to win NOW.
> 
> To say Phinney is overrated NOW is an unfounded and premature statement. We'll see...


Phinney is/was overrated ONLY as the pick to win the race overall - he obviously is very young and has plenty of potential for the future, no need to imply anything else. I hope he will win PR one day, and I am rooting for him, but I am tired of the silly hype that often accompanies some riders, and was warning against the hype. Someone needs to have some sort hype/reality-check police on bike forums.

Phinney did great to finish in top 20, but if you build him up as contendor to win overall (which he was clearly NOT!), his finish today will seem like a major disappointment. He is not there yet, so let's all be realistic about riders and their preparation. For him to win today would have been a miracle requiring suspending the rules of reality.

If you enjoy engaging in overhyped, unrealistic discussions, I have a few new topics to offer:

* What happened to Hincapie today? Wasn't he an overwhelming favorite to win it? This was his year!

* Will Danielson win Tour De France this year? He is still very young... If not TdF, maybe he will win Vuelta.

* Horner could have easily won at least a few TdF titles if only he was on the right team and he wasn't crashing all the time. I hope he takes on Schlecks and Evans this year, he is better rider than them.

* Farrar is way faster than Cavendish, the only reason Cavendish keeps winning is that he wheel-sucks the HTC and now SKY train - if Farrar did that, he would be the world champ by now.

* Zabriskie can take Martin and Cancellara in a time trial any day, right?


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

ATP, watch it for yourself. FC counters another rider's attack. Boonen's team car is already gone. Boonen's 1st pull is answered, on the pave, they simply can't help, Boonen is too strong. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEFqL0mbazw

Didn't matter where Boonen was, didn't matter what Bjarne said. FC lit the fuse and nobody could do anything about it. He would have dropped Boonen from his wheel in the pave.


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## TerminatorX91 (Mar 27, 2011)

TerminatorX91 said:


> Phinney sure looked like he was enjoying the team recon ride, not that I'm saying that I think he'll make the podium.
> 
> It'll be a side interest to see him in his first major classic, the one that he's most naturally suited to. I'm remembering Boonen's first Paris-Roubaix performance in 2002 on this occasion. If Phinney can make himself some good luck and get in with the right guys he could surprise.





55x11 said:


> Phinney is/was overrated ONLY as the pick to win the race overall - he obviously is very young and has plenty of potential for the future, no need to imply anything else. I hope he will win PR one day, and I am rooting for him, but I am tired of the silly hype that often accompanies some riders, and was warning against the hype. Someone needs to have some sort hype/reality-check police on bike forums.
> 
> Phinney did great to finish in top 20, but if you build him up as contendor to win overall (which he was clearly NOT!), his finish today will seem like a major disappointment. He is not there yet, so let's all be realistic about riders and their preparation. For him to win today would have been a miracle requiring suspending the rules of reality.
> 
> ...



Please go back, read again and please feel free to point out exactly where I, or anyone else for that matter, ever said Phinney was a real contender to win this year.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*watched it, have seen it loads*



davidka said:


> ATP, watch it for yourself. FC counters another rider's attack. Boonen's team car is already gone. Boonen's 1st pull is answered, on the pave, they simply can't help, Boonen is too strong.
> 
> Fabian Cancellara attack on Paris Roubaix 2010 - YouTube
> 
> Didn't matter where Boonen was, didn't matter what Bjarne said. FC lit the fuse and nobody could do anything about it. He would have dropped Boonen from his wheel in the pave.


Who is the only rider giving chase? When Boonen's solo effort reduces the pack to 4 riders all he had were Remoras (Pozzato being one) I'm surprised Boonen doesn't have shorts that say "Hey Pippo how does my azz taste?"
FCs attack started as a counter, Boonen was eating having just come back from the team car. Boonen rides around the entire group and starts pulling, no one helps.That is not a group chase. 

and just as Boonen couldn't shake his wheelsuckers, there is no way Fabian could have shaken Tom had they gone together. I think Fabian was the stronger man that day, don't get me wrong, just not that much stronger. Did Fabian deserve the win, oh hell yes, it was an awesome display


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*here, in Bjarne's own words*



atpjunkie said:


> Who is the only rider giving chase? When Boonen's solo effort reduces the pack to 4 riders all he had were Remoras (Pozzato being one) I'm surprised Boonen doesn't have shorts that say "Hey Pippo how does my azz taste?"
> FCs attack started as a counter, Boonen was eating having just come back from the team car. Boonen rides around the entire group and starts pulling, no one helps.That is not a group chase.
> 
> and just as Boonen couldn't shake his wheelsuckers, there is no way Fabian could have shaken Tom had they gone together. I think Fabian was the stronger man that day, don't get me wrong, just not that much stronger. Did Fabian deserve the win, oh hell yes, it was an awesome display


from cycling news

Saxo Bank team manager Bjarne Riis doesn't often show his emotions but even he couldn't stop smiling as he watched Fabian Cancellara climb on the podium in the centre of the Roubaix velodrome and lift the winner's cobblestone prize.

Riis carefully directed Cancellara during the race from the passenger seat of the Saxo Bank team car. He revealed that he told Cancellara to attack when he did, after noticing that Tom Boonen was too far down the line of riders.

Cancellara trusted his boss, didn't look back and opened up the after-burners, even though there was still 50 kilometres left to race. Before Boonen even realised what had happened and moved out of the line to look up the road, Cancellara had already opened a gap that would have been impossible for him to close.

"I told him to attack on the radio. As soon as I saw that Boonen was not on his wheel, I said: 'Now you go' ," Riis explained.

"A rider like him, when he goes, it's because he goes to win, not for fun. I knew it was the right moment and that he was riding to win the race. Otherwise I'd have stopped him immediately."

Pressed by several Belgian journalists, Riis could not resist having a dig at Tom Boonen.

"Boonen is strong but Cancellara is better. He's great," he said with total admiration.

"Boonen made mistakes during the race. How many? Two can be too many. I think if you want to win this race you have to stay calm, relaxed and not stressed. Then go when you have to go.

"The problem for the others is that Fabian goes fast, even on his own. We know that and it's a bonus to have. We know he can go from far away, too, so we use this as part of our strategy. Not many riders can do that."


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

2010 was a huge year for Fabian and he was the best that year. Boonen was also not at 100% that year and though I still think Fabian would have won that year, I don't think his wins would have been such a slaughter if Boonen hadn't been plagued with injuries. I think the point to be made in Cancellara's attack in 2010 Paris Roubaix is that though he demonstrated that he was the strongest and the worthy winner of the race, he would have pitched a fit if Boonen had beaten him the same way.

Cancellara's victory in 2010 Flanders was a clear demonstration of brute strength and he simply rode Boonen off of his wheel. Cancellara's move in Roubaix was a tactical one where he took advantage of a situation. Anytime Cancellara loses due to the use of any tactics whatsoever, he criticizes it.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

Boonen's Best Year >> Cancellara's Best Year

Boonen's classiness >> Cancellara's classiness

They are both stars, but come on, Boonen is a class above.


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

I predict Boonen's going to ride away and win solo!


Oh, wait a minute..........


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> 2010 was a huge year for Fabian and he was the best that year. Boonen was also not at 100% that year and though I still think Fabian would have won that year, I don't think his wins would have been such a slaughter if Boonen hadn't been plagued with injuries. I think the point to be made in Cancellara's attack in 2010 Paris Roubaix is that though he demonstrated that he was the strongest and the worthy winner of the race, he would have pitched a fit if Boonen had beaten him the same way.
> 
> Cancellara's victory in 2010 Flanders was a clear demonstration of brute strength and he simply rode Boonen off of his wheel. Cancellara's move in Roubaix was a tactical one where he took advantage of a situation. Anytime Cancellara loses due to the use of any tactics whatsoever, he criticizes it.


Well, he didn't complain after MSR this year.


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

foto said:


> Boonen's Best Year >> Cancellara's Best Year
> 
> Boonen's classiness >> Cancellara's classiness
> 
> They are both stars, but come on, *Boonen is a class above.*



Do you think it's because of Boonen's discourse (A little more diplomatic)?


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

cda 455 said:


> Do you think it's because of Boonen's discourse (A little more diplomatic)?


Well, that and his palmares.


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

foto said:


> Well, he didn't complain after MSR this year.


Did he not?


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

foto said:


> Well, that and his palmares.



Ah; Roger that.


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## foto (Feb 7, 2005)

thechriswebb said:


> Did he not?


Did he?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*pretty simple*



foto said:


> Boonen's Best Year >> Cancellara's Best Year
> 
> Boonen's classiness >> Cancellara's classiness
> 
> They are both stars, but come on, Boonen is a class above.


Cancellara's Classics greatness is defined by him beating Boonen

that is all one needs to say


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Fabian*



foto said:


> Did he?


did his best post race comments after MSR this year.
Maybe he's learned
“In general I think everything went the way it should go,” said Fabian Cancellara after the race. “It was a hard race and a fast one too. At the end I was right there and when the attack came I was ready. It was part of our plan that Daniele could continue on without stress in case it came to a group sprint. I had in my mind to make a difference on the Poggio on the downhill and then to the finish line. 

"Gerrans did some pulls and I understood that Nibali had his teammate Peter Sagan behind for the sprint so he didn’t have to work. I saw the riders coming at the end but after 300k it’s not easy to calculate exactly what to do and be right each time. In the end I got a nice second place and second in Sanremo is prestigious of course, but it wasn’t the birthday present I was looking for,” said Cancellara, referring to his 31st birthday on Sunday. “I came to win.”


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