# what are the odds?



## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

So below are the current odds for the overall win. 
(http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/tour-de-france/winner)
Slight differences between various oddmakers but overall they agree that Andy Schleck has a slight edge over Contador, with Evans somewhat distant third.

I think it is fair overall except Kloden and LL Sanchez are grossly undervalued.

Andy Schleck
5/4
Alberto Contador
7/5
Cadel Evans
4
Frank Schleck
20
Ivan Basso
33
Samuel Sanchez
66
Andreas Kloden
125
Peter Velits
80
Robert Gesink
100
Tony Martin
80
Thomas Voeckler
175
Luis Leon Sanchez
175
Damiano Cunego
200
Nicolas Roche
500
Philippe Gilbert
300
Jakob Fuglsang
400
Tom Danielson
300
Christian Vandevelde
600
Levi Leipheimer 300


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

What a difference 1 day makes - Now Contador is downgraded (below Evans). Basso, Frank Schleck, Sanchez improved. Andy Schleck is getting closer to 50/50 for the win.
Chances for Velits, Leipheimer, Kloden dropped to basically zero.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

You do realize that these odds don't reflect who the bookies think will win, rather they reflect what the odds have to be to balance the betting? In other words, these reflect what the betting public thinks....

Just sayin'

Len


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Len J said:


> You do realize that these odds don't reflect who the bookies think will win, rather they reflect what the odds have to be to balance the betting? In other words, these reflect what the betting public thinks....
> 
> Just sayin'
> 
> Len


Are there even still bookies? I assumed that bookies have been replaced by computer programs long time ago.

In any case, these odds do represent some sort of collective wisdom by the betting public. Not much of a betting man myself, I find it fascinating how these markets do get most of the things right - similar to intrade etc.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

55x11 said:


> Are there even still bookies? I assumed that bookies have been replaced by computer programs long time ago.
> 
> In any case, these odds do represent some sort of collective wisdom by the betting public. Not much of a betting man myself, I find it fascinating how these markets do get most of the things right - similar to intrade etc.


Unfortunatly, public betting is a lagging indicator usually. Look at Contadors odds.......they lag his performance since many bettors want him to recover. OTOH, Basso has ridden stronger than his odds as has Cuenego.

Yes there are bookies, they adjust the computer models.

Yes, they are fascinating.

What odds would you personally give the top 6?

Me

Frank 7-1
Evans 7-5
Andy 3-1
Basso 5-1
Cuengo 10-1
Contador 25-1

Lots of racing left though.

len


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Len J said:


> Me
> 
> Frank 7-1
> Evans 7-5
> ...


Making book by laying bets off one another is the best way to manage risk and skim profit. But for setting odds for a single event bet, that is not possible. However, if a person tries to make odds so that s/he would be WILLING to take either side of the bet, that seems to be a good mindset for finding close to true odds. 

So, if you were making book for a single bet, you would stand to pay out $3 if Andy wins for every $1 you stand to gain if Andy loses? I think that sounds like fair odds against the field, I could take either side for a small sum and live with it, so good call there IM risk assessment O. 

But I think your odds overestimate the chance of the "field", those riders not listed. At least that is my guess, without running the numbers.

Here's one way to address the general case. Assume there are 5 riders who have a chance, that's usually the case at the start, or at this point. A real chance, not zero chance, not fractions of a percent chance, but a chance in objective reality. No need to consider actual rider names... yet.

Assume the top rider has the best chance, however you determine best. But the top 2 or 3 chances will total to something like 80% of the wins. If the race were run 100 times in a row, a few riders will win most of them, but others will sneak in on occasion. Stuff happens. 

The next 2 or 3 (the longer shots of the top 5) will soak up the majority of the other 20% so let's say 15%, and let's call the rest of the field the leftover 5%. 

A "fair" bet on a coin flip, in terms of odds, is 1-1. Heads or tails wins 50% of the time. The odds are fair because either side has an objectively similar expected payout. A 2-1 bet is "fair" if the person getting the odds wins roughly 33% of the time. 33 bets pay off at 2, 66ish pay off at 1, close to fair. 3-1 would be a 25% chance of winning as fair. 4-1 a 20% chance. 

So if a betting structure has three people with those TRUE odds of winning (2-1, 3-1, 4-1), that accounts for 78% of all wins paying off fairly. Throw in a couple 9-1 chances for the 4 and 5 positions, and you have a good basic structure that soaks up 88% of all the expected "wins". This structure also overestimates the chance of the field, btw, just like I think yours does. But the math was easy  I would probably shift the odds for the top 5 upwards slightly until they took 95% of the expected wins, but who needs to deal with those fractions or decimal numbers? Not me!

The assumptions I made pretty much mean that 10-1 or higher means "not a chance", aka for the dumb money. But that can be tweaked if needed.

This basic structure, once it is set up, is to be altered in light of what your GUT tells you, current time gaps, abilities in the mountains and TT, and route remaining. But when you alter one of those chances, you should keep in mind that the other chances must also be altered. Giving more "wins" to one person means taking them away from another. Winning is zero sum, the expected wins must total to "one". 100/100 in my example.

At least that is how I would do it if I was going to come up with a list of odds and be willing to take either side of any of the bets. Too much work, especially because I have no idea what's going to happen!


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Making book by laying bets off one another is the best way to manage risk and skim profit. But for setting odds for a single event bet, that is not possible. However, if a person tries to make odds so that s/he would be WILLING to take either side of the bet, that seems to be a good mindset for finding close to true odds.
> 
> So, if you were making book for a single bet, you would stand to pay out $3 if Andy wins for every $1 you stand to gain if Andy loses? I think that sounds like fair odds against the field, I could take either side for a small sum and live with it, so good call there IM risk assessment O.
> 
> ...


If I were the Book, I'd do it your way...and in fact, that's what they try to do....even the betting on each side so they have no risk.

OTOH, if I'm setting my personl odds, it's the lowest odds I would take to bet that person to win... take contador........I'd need to make 25 to 1 or better on my bet to take the risk to bet on him......in other wortds it's biased by my opinion.

Slightly different.

Len


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Len J said:


> Unfortunatly, public betting is a lagging indicator usually. Look at Contadors odds.......they lag his performance since many bettors want him to recover. OTOH, Basso has ridden stronger than his odds as has Cuenego.
> 
> Yes there are bookies, they adjust the computer models.
> 
> ...


Thanks for explanation! I generally agree with your odds - I think Contador still has a shot, better than Cunego and maybe even Basso. I would also put Andy Schleck at about even with (or slightly ahead of) Evans.
My odds would be something like:
Andy Schleck: 7-5
Evans: 5-2
Basso: 4-1
Contador: 5-1
Frank Schleck 5-1
Cunego: 10-1
Sanchez: 10-1
Rest of the field: 10-1 (Pereiro effect)
I may need to adjust the ratios a bit, and a lot of things are still not certain in my mind.
For example, I still have questions about Andy Schleck, Basso, Contador. Will Cadel falter in the mountains, as he often does? Basso can substantially improve his odds if he does well on Saturday. I think odds will get a little more solidified after Saturday.


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## QuiQuaeQuod (Jan 24, 2003)

Len J said:


> If I were the Book, I'd do it your way...and in fact, that's what they try to do....even the betting on each side so they have no risk.


Oh, if I were to set the book HERE, I would want to make money, and I would try to draw in as much stupid Contador money as possible when I set my odds. After all, seems like there is a lot of stupid Contador money out there given the current line.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

QuiQuaeQuod said:


> Oh, if I were to set the book HERE, I would want to make money, and I would try to draw in as much stupid Contador money as possible when I set my odds. After all, seems like there is a lot of stupid Contador money out there given the current line.


at 25-1, I would probably be one of those people willing to give up "stupid Contador money".
Except in my world it's actually pretty smart money - he still has much better than 5% chance of winning if he recovers from his saddle sores and knee injuries.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

55x11 said:


> For example, I still have questions about Andy Schleck, Basso, Contador. Will Cadel falter in the mountains, as he often does? Basso can substantially improve his odds if he does well on Saturday. I think odds will get a little more solidified after Saturday.


Agree w this 100%. Basso's performance (as well as Contadors) on Sat could change things dramaticially.

Contador hasn't shown me anything this tour that would warrent him being able to come from 3 minuts down.

We'll see.

Len


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Thanks Hoo! I was trying to grasp Len's mentionning about the finer points of betting and bookies but I love me some mathematical models  One day I want to sit down with len and instill a parcel of his knowledge to me!

From what I can see... 

Len is saying bye-bye to Contador (25-1 vs 10-1 for Cunego?!) You are really high on Evans? (7-5? typo?)

55x11 is giving Contador a little under top-5 contender odd (16.7% / 1-4 = 20%)

@55x11 : Consider that I know little about betting odds (but some about math), why would a 25-1 (3.8%) on Contador be considered a "decent" bet? Because of his "personal" odd of winning (about 20% if "top-5" - if all riders are considered "equal", which they are not) I would not give conti a 16% odd of winning right now... but probably not len's 4% either.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

ColdRider said:


> Thanks Hoo! I was trying to grasp Len's mentionning about the finer points of betting and bookies but I love me some mathematical models  One day I want to sit down with len and instill a parcel of his knowledge to me!
> 
> From what I can see...
> 
> ...


Your odd calculations are correct. 
I just think that while Contador doesn't look very good to me, if anyone can erase 2 minutes, it is Contador. I wouldn't write him off just yet - Schlecks need to put in more time into Contador, and hopefully they will do it tomorrow.

If Contador is really mostly struggling with a sore knee and saddle sores, what are the chances that he can get better by end of next week, by the stages 18, 19 and 20 into Galibier and L'Alpe d'Huez, and ITT?

I think 16% or so is about fair chance of a Contador recovery/comeback. 4% is way too low. In other words, I don't think of it as whether Contador is on par within other riders in top 5 (he probably is not). It's more binary - if he can recover his Giro-level form for a few mountain stages and ITT (unlikely, but still possible), he can probably win. If he doesn't, he loses for sure.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

The other factor that I don't think anyone has mentioned is that a rider's form can essentially be instantenously transformed. So maybe one can't go from zero to hero these days because of the biopassport, but a rider can probably still signficantly change his fortunes by a little topping off. Especially when you consider that at this point all the top GC guys appear to be more or less on the same level and to greater and lesser degrees there is at least some reason to suspect that all of these guys haven't always done it on bread and water alone.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

What are the odds now? Did Voeckler rocket up the betting lines?

fc


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

francois said:


> What are the odds now? Did Voeckler rocket up the betting lines?
> 
> fc


I don't think the odds changed at all. One less opportunity.

Vocklers odds may have goon from 250 to 1 to 150 to 1. Still little chance. 

Len


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Len J said:


> I don't think the odds changed at all. One less opportunity.
> 
> Vocklers odds may have goon from 250 to 1 to 150 to 1. Still little chance.
> 
> Len


I never thought I would say it, but I think Voeckler has a chance after what we saw today.

Oddmakers put him at 8-1 to 13-1, (roughly in 7%-11% shot), and he is now in 4th place in terms of odds - better chances than Basso or Sanchez, which is significant.

Contador at about 20%, gained some. Schleck lost a bit - now at around 40%, still the favorite though. Evans is at ~30%, Basso at 4%, Schleck at 8% or so.

I must say today's stage didn't live up to the hype, and was a bit disappointing.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

55x11 said:


> I never thought I would say it, but I think Voeckler has a chance after what we saw today.
> 
> Oddmakers put him at 8-1 to 13-1, (roughly in 7%-11% shot), and he is now in 4th place in terms of odds - better chances than Basso or Sanchez, which is significant.
> 
> ...


He rode incredible today.......his odds reflect the betting publics hope.

But the tour is about cumulative effort. He is fighting to hold on, impressively, but once he loses yellow, he'll lose buckets of time, just like last time. I'm actually rooting for him to win, but I'm not expecting it. 

Today was disappointing. 

Len


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## serpico7 (Jul 11, 2006)

55x11 said:


> Schleck lost a bit - now at around 40%, still the favorite though. Evans is at ~30%


Seems to me this should be reversed, with Evans closer to 40%, Andy closer to 30%.

Every day without a Cadel meltdown and without losing time to Andy (in fact, CE is 9s ahead) is a good day for Cadel.

Sure, LT is a better overall team than BMC, but it seems they haven't figured out how best to use all that firepower to their advantage in the GC. All that effort by LT today was wasted.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

serpico7 said:


> Seems to me this should be reversed, with Evans closer to 40%, Andy closer to 30%.
> 
> Every day without a Cadel meltdown and without losing time to Andy (in fact, CE is 9s ahead) is a good day for Cadel.
> 
> Sure, LT is a better overall team than BMC, but it seems they haven't figured out how best to use all that firepower to their advantage in the GC. All that effort by LT today was wasted.


Agreed.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

I still think Andy will put enough time on Cadel but the folks putting money on Voeckler are insane (at those odds).

I hear you guys on the wasted opportunity.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

ColdRider said:


> I still think Andy will put enough time on Cadel but the folks putting money on Voeckler are insane (at those odds).
> 
> I hear you guys on the wasted opportunity.


I also think that Andy is the best climber and will put time into Cadel (he needs to). However, his conservative riding style so far worries me - why is he holding back? The current odds for Cadel make him under-rated. He is at the very least even money with Andy, if not the clear favorite.

As to Voeckler, 1:10 odds are not that crazy, and people LOVE dark-horse, unusual bets. If I was French, I would put a lot of money on Voeckler now - just so if he wins I could claim I knew it all along.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

I hear you on Cadel. I was wondering what the hell that finish line surge was all about. I can imagine how hard and gassed they must be at the end of the parcours, but wow. The scenario for Andy for me was...

a) He was stronger and wanted to show that he still had strenght. In which case, that was dumb and useless. Use what is left in the tank and put real time between you and others. They had a rest "day" for crying out the following day.

b) He had nothing left and bluffed his strenght. This is scenario that would make the most sense... but again... why? As impressive as that surge was, it was pointless.

One thing about Voeckler that I did not notice at first was the fact that he covered all the attacks like you mentionned... I agree that Andy probably would've gotten away if not for that. After seeing how Andy got away from Contador and Evans is what makes me think he can still put enough time on them come the next mountain stages. What is the "best-case" scenario for time gain/km on a mountain stage, from the moment the guy decides to take off? I usually calculate 1min/10km on a TT run for specialist vs non-specialist (amongst contenders).

One last thing about odds and betting, do the odds "re-correct" itself according to the number of "positive" bets placed? Is that how Voeckler odds shot up despite his "real" chances not being that great? I would've put a 100$ on a 250-1  I would put Voeckler at around 5% right now. Voeckler in front of Basso is insane. Are the payouts calculate at the time of the bet or the end of the "race".


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

ColdRider said:


> One last thing about odds and betting, do the odds "re-correct" itself according to the number of "positive" bets placed? Is that how Voeckler odds shot up despite his "real" chances not being that great? I would've put a 100$ on a 250-1  I would put Voeckler at around 5% right now. Voeckler in front of Basso is insane. Are the payouts calculate at the time of the bet or the end of the "race".


Odds change as money is bet. Bookies are trying to balance the winning bets with the losers to lessen their risk.

Payouts are based on the odds you get when you bet......not odds at end of race.

Len


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## cityeast (Sep 16, 2004)

Time to recalculate I think: 

Evans 15-9
Contador 2-1
Voeckler 4-1
Basso 6-1
Schleck of your choice: 10-1
....


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

cityeast said:


> Time to recalculate I think:
> 
> Evans 15-9
> Contador 2-1
> ...


 
Mine would be

Evans 7.5-5 Yet to show a weakness
Contador 5-1 yet to show he can put time in Cadel
Andy 5-1 One bad day.....too soon to write him off
Sanchez 8-1 dark horse, but keeps riding strong
Frank 10-1 not good enough ITT
Basso 12-1 Too far back and can't follow all the accelerations
Vockler 20-1 too many remaining mountain stages + relativly weak TT'er

IMO

len


Vockler 15-1
Basso


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Len J said:


> Mine would be
> 
> Evans 7.5-5 Yet to show a weakness
> Contador 5-1 yet to show he can put time in Cadel
> ...


I agree with Len. One of the Schlecks (Andy) has much better than 10-1 chance still, even after what happened today.
Voeckler is a bit better than 20-1 at this point though. I would say 8-1 or so.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

55x11 said:


> I agree with Len. One of the Schlecks (Andy) has much better than 10-1 chance still, even after what happened today.
> Voeckler is a bit better than 20-1 at this point though. I would say 8-1 or so.


vockler shoed a crack today........the next 3 days the dam breaks IMO.

I'd love if it didn't, but I'm not seeing it, he has dug too deep for too long.

Len


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

I agree with Len on the top contenders. For Voeckler tho, the odds are stacked against him. Not only must he hold to Evans/Contador/SchleckA/B wheels in the following 2 mountain stages, he then needs to fend off at least Evans in the ITT (+1:45). Slim odds multiplied by even slimmer odds makes for a terrible prognostic.

Apologies for the %, I am a "numbers" guy before I am an "odds" guy  (These are Len's number translated for my own comprehension)

Evans 60%
Contador/Andy 15% Each
Sanchez 12.5%

Evans is sitting very pretty right now. He can let Frank go up the road 3-4 mins before he starts worrying. He can sit on Contador and Andy's and not attack. I'll agree tho that if I were Andy and my "bad" day was today and "only" lost 1min, I think I would be happy.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

55x11 said:


> So below are the current odds for the overall win.
> (http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/tour-de-france/winner)
> Slight differences between various oddmakers but overall they agree that Andy Schleck has a slight edge over Contador, with Evans somewhat distant third.
> 
> ...


Not sure if anyone cares, but I find it absolutely fascinating - a lot of movement in the past few days.

Now Contador is about even with Cadel, or even the (slight) favorite in majority of oddmakers lists. 
They are at about 45% each, Andy Schleck is 3rd with 12-16%. Frank is 5%, Sammy Sanchez 4%, Voeckler 3%, Basso 1%, Danielson 0.1%-0.2%.

Edit: I think Contador is overrated, Andy Schleck is underrated (he is not out). Sammy Sanchez is underrated too.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

55x11 said:


> Now Contador is about even with Cadel, or even the (slight) favorite in majority of oddmakers lists.
> They are at about 45% each, Andy Schleck is 3rd with 12-16%. Frank is 5%, Sammy Sanchez 4%, Voeckler 3%, Basso 1%, Danielson 0.1%-0.2%.
> 
> Edit: I think Contador is overrated, Andy Schleck is underrated (he is not out). Sammy Sanchez is underrated too.


I agree with this!

Len


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Len J said:


> I agree with this!
> 
> Len


and now Contador is dropped to 4%, replaced by Andy Schleck who is about even with Evans at 40-ish %. Frank Schleck is 16% or so, Voeckler is also ~4-6%, slightly better odds than Contador. Basso, Sanchez are <0.5%.

Looks more reasonable to me.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

55x11 said:


> and now Contador is dropped to 4%, replaced by Andy Schleck who is about even with Evans at 40-ish %. Frank Schleck is 16% or so, Voeckler is also ~4-6%, slightly better odds than Contador. Basso, Sanchez are <0.5%.
> 
> Looks more reasonable to me.


55x11, you are not the only one intrigued by this. What a difference a day makes! Contador lost > 30% and andy gained 25%. Voeckler is way overvalued because there is not way he can either a) follow Andy on S19 or b) fend off Cadel and stay within 1min in the ITT. I would have to look deeper on the other guys/gaps because i don't even think voeckler podiums  

I understand this is a zero-sum game so you have to put odds somewhere, but my "personnal" odds for voeckler would be 100-1 (1%)

Andy/evans 42+% (personnal favorite - AS but evans rode too well for me to put favorite)
F schleck 12%
contador 3%
Voeckler 1%

Do we start a podium odd? . And some thanks to you and Len for the " % " instead of odds  saves me a quick calculation although i am starting to get the hang of it


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## Lazyridersuck (Jul 21, 2011)

Schleck had an amazing day. I like Thomas Voeckler but lets all face it, without a horrendous crash and having every one else lead him, he would be nowhere. He did ZERO work today on the hill. Pathetic. Sure hope he gets destroyed in the time trial.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Lazyridersuck said:


> Schleck had an amazing day. I like Thomas Voeckler but lets all face it, without a horrendous crash and having every one else lead him, he would be nowhere. He did ZERO work today on the hill. Pathetic. Sure hope he gets destroyed in the time trial.


it's a bit weird - he should have been as interested as Evans in keeping time gaps small, and he had Rolland. 
By the way, Rolland is fantastic. Who could have predicted that two french riders will drop Contador?


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Lazyridersuck said:


> Schleck had an amazing day. I like Thomas Voeckler but lets all face it, without a horrendous crash and having every one else lead him, he would be nowhere. He did ZERO work today on the hill. Pathetic. Sure hope he gets destroyed in the time trial.


One of my friends favorite quote is "Fortune favors the bold". Voeckler goes into attack after attack after attack. "There goes Voeckler" is probably a linguistic test that commentators have to past in order to get the jobs  In the few races that I watch, he is always there trying to get into a break.

His winning was the maillot jaune was indeed done in horrific conditons (not of his doing) but the way he held onto it is anywhere but pathetic. He *covered* all of Andy's and Frank's attacks in the Pyrénées. Both days.

I wrote him off about 5-6 stages ago, let alone HOLDING it today. About that... How would you do it or rather wanted him to do it? He was clearly gassed and could not go in the front. Europcar decided to let it go today. Cadel wisely decided to close the time gap on Andy so Voeckler had a free ride to the finish line. When he saw that they had a chance to keep the maillot jaune, he sent his teamate to pull.

Go here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0nW9Ms-mXo ; 12:15 is the time stamp you could give a look-see. 7:09 is where Voeckler teamate goes up.


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## ColdRider (Mar 17, 2005)

Knee-jerk feeling

Evans 60%
Andy 39%
Contador/Sanchez 0.5%

Evans is a 3-2 favorite over Andy for me.


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