# 2012 TDF Predictions?



## twain (May 18, 2004)

It's that time of year again. Who do you think will be on the podium? White, Green, and Polka Dot?
This year is unusual in that a lot of folks won't be there; A. Schleck, Contador, Boonen, Thor. There are also a lot of riders who are also preparing for the Olympics, notably Tony Martin and Cavendish. Martin flat out said he isn't going to ride that hard in the tour (lame). Then we have guys like Frank Schleck who "doesn't want to be the team leader".
Team RadioShack, in particular, is a bit of a mess with Horner excluded then called back for the TDF, Frank wimping out, and Johan may get fired before the Tour even starts! Of course, my favorite rider who has the TT and hill climbing ability, Kloden, will likely not be chosen as the GC contender for the Shack-shame.

Here is the 100% accurate configurator to predict the top 16 this year based on my purely scientific analysis (aka, ass-talk).
So it's Cadel, Wiggins, Menchov 1-2-3. White Jersey = Sagan. Polka Dot=Sanchez. Green=Cavendish (Tyler and Griepel aren't as good).
What do you guys think?


Team Rider TT CLIMB Team Desire Score 
1 BMC Cadel Evans 8 9 10 2 7.3
Experience gives the edge
2 Sky Bradley Wiggins 9 8 10 2 7.3 If he doesn't crash..
3 Katusha Denis Menchov 8.5 8.5 8 2 6.8 It's his time
4 RadioShack Andreas Kloden 9 9 7 1 6.5 Will the team support him as GC favorite?
6 Garmin Ryder Hesjedal 8 8 8 2 6.5 Just won the Giro
8 Omega Levi Leipheimer 8 8 8 2 6.5 Can he hang in the climbs?
5 Omega Tony Martin 10 7 8 0 6.3 Preparing for Olympics
7 Garmin Christian Vande Velde 8 8 8 1 6.3 Too old?
9 Euskatel Samuel Sanchez 6 9 8 2 6.3 Polka Dot
10 Omega Sylvain Chavanel 7 8 8 1 6.0 Long shot
12 RadioShack Chris Horner 8 8 7 1 6.0 Long shot
11 Movistar Alejandro Valverde 6 8 8 1 5.8 Long shot
13 Liquigas Vincenzo Nibali 5 9 7 2 5.8 Riders are strong but team may disintegrate
14 Liquigas Ivan Basso 5 9 7 2 5.8 Riders are strong but team may disintegrate
15 Liquigas Peter Sagan 5 9 7 2 5.8 White jersey
16 RadioShack Frank Schleck 4 9 7 1 5.3 doesn't want to be team leader

Green: Mark Cavendish: Boonen and Hushovd won't be there. Maybe Sagan. Can you imagine if he won the Green and White jersey? Awesome!


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## L7ColWinters (Mar 25, 2012)

i would put samuel higher on that list!


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

No way Cav finishes the Tour this year. He's been training with Olympic gold in mind the entire year, and this is the only opportunity he'll ever have to compete on his home turf. No way he slogs it through the high mountains with the Olympics only a week after the end of the Tour. I think he drops out around the first rest day to rest up for Box Hill. He'd be foolish not to. Therefore, Sagan in green is my call, because the guy's just a monster right now.


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## superjesus (Jul 26, 2010)

Sagan = Green
Wiggins = Yellow
Evans, Hesjedal = Podium


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## OhSnap (Jun 21, 2012)

Podium--1. Cadell 2. Levi 3. Gesink Rooting for Voeckler but injury keeps him out.
White--Sagan
Green--Sagan
Poka--Hoogerland barely over Sanchez


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## gusmahler (Apr 7, 2012)

Wiggins for yellow. Goss for Green. Cav for 2 stage wins before he drops out.


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## OnTheRivet (Sep 3, 2004)

Froome in yellow
Sagan in green
Roy in polka dots


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

1. Evans
2. Wiggins
3. Leipheimer
4. Menchov
5. Martin
6. Nibali
7. Kloden
8. Hesjedal 
9. Rolland
10. Gesink
11. Sanchez
12. Danielson
13. Horner
14. Schlong
15. Cancellara
16. Froome
17. Voeckler

Green: Sagan
Polka Dots: Rolland
White: Rolland
Sagan wins three stages, with Cav and Greipel taking two each.
Stage wins for LL Sanchez, Vino, and a second place each for Hincapie and Voigt. 
Most aggressive: Roy


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

*For the Podium:*
1) Evans
2) Wiggens
3) Horner (Just for the fun of it, and I think he wants to prove a point)

*For Green:*

1) Sagan ... I would go with Cav, but he's already said he plans to drop out of the Tour to prep for the Olympics

*For Polka:*

1) Sanchez

*For White:*

1) I don't have any idea who will pull that one out this year


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

1. Evans
2. Wiggins
3. Nibali

Green: Sagan
Polka: Frank Schleck
White: Tom Danielson


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

GC 1. Evans

Points: 1. Sagan by a million miles

Polka: nobody cares except the rider's Mom

White: 1. Sagan by a million miles.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

Dan Gerous said:


> White: Tom Danielson


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## n_schuster (Sep 13, 2004)

Not going to weigh in, but I thought this was effing hilarious

Hahah well put.
N




Creakyknees said:


> Polka: nobody cares except the rider's Mom


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Yellow: Evans
Podium: Wiggins (2nd), Valverde (3rd) 
Green: Sagan
Polka Dot: Pierre Rolland


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I like the polka dot jersey. . 

Apparently Vino wants it.


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## twain (May 18, 2004)

*NBC Fantasy Cycling Challenge*

Interesting how the NBC Fantasy game ranks riders. Wonder how they came up with this formula!

Mark Cavendish SKY $103
Cadel Evans BMC $100 
Bradley Wiggins SKY $99 
Frank Schleck RNT $72 
Levi Leipheimer OPQ $70 
Andre Greipel LTB $70 
Andreas Kloden RNT $69 
Robert Gesink RAB $68 
Samuel Sanchez EUS $67 
Vincenzo Nibali LIQ $67 
Tyler Farrar GRM $65 
Jurgen Van Den Broeck LTB $65 
Denis Menchov KAT $63 
Ryder Hesjedal GRM $61 
Peter Sagan LIQ $61 
Jose Joaquin Rojas MOV $57 
Fabian Cancellara RNT $52 
Tony Martin OPQ $51 
Alessandro Petacchi LAM $48 
Matthew Goss OGE $47 
Christian Vande Velde GRM $46 
Thomas Voeckler EUC $45


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Creakyknees said:


> GC 1. Evans
> 
> Points: 1. Sagan by a million miles
> 
> ...


Sagan for white?! Really?


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## twain (May 18, 2004)

*"Schlong"*



thechriswebb said:


> 14. Schlong


LOL I just spent 5 minutes trying to look up who that rider is. 
Frigging how lame is Frank? "I don't want to be team leader". "I can't race without my brother". JEEZ.


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## The Moontrane (Nov 28, 2005)

55x11 said:


> Yellow: Evans
> Podium: Wiggins (2nd), Valverde (3rd)
> Green: Sagan
> Polka Dot: Pierre Rolland


Mesum thinkin' what yousum thinkin'. 

Rolland is a perspicacious pick. :ihih:


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## sir duke (Mar 24, 2006)

gusmahler said:


> Wiggins for yellow. Goss for Green. Cav for 2 stage wins before he drops out.


Definitely Wiggo's best shot for yellow this year, my only concern is that he can stay focused if he has a bad day early on, success has come pretty easy to him this year, and I just wonder if he can keep his head up if bad luck comes his way. Cadel is tough as old boots and knows how to win, I think he has one superlative tour left in him. I take Cuddles to edge it. Cav will settle for a couple of stage wins and then call it quits, though I do recall him saying somewhere that he's here to complete the race. Menchov maybe gets a stage but I don't see him on the podium.


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## Frith (Oct 3, 2002)

Wiggins for yellow


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

Thanks for posting this. I had posted a predictions post for the past few years here, to "close" at starting time. With things beginning in June, it caught me off guard. I am going to hunt through the recent month's Pro Cycling posts, and find all RBR predictionsfor 2012 TdF. Like recent years, I will go back and evaluate how well we did.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

http://forums.roadbikereview.com/pr...12-tdf-post-start-time-jul-2012-a-256484.html

^Here is the 2012 predictions thread I began just as 2011 ended. I was even off regarding month of the start.


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## B05 (Jul 31, 2011)

Looking on how Sagan won today I'm a believer he'll be getting the Green when it's all said and done. The kid was a lone ranger and worked his way through (lol @ Cancellera trying to get him to stay at the front). He knows his way to the finish.

Looks like Cav is just flirting to sprint and I still believe he'll be putting more importance on the Olympics.

btw, what was Greipel doing at the front today? Who were they setting up for the finish? They had a good plan but it was POORLY executed.


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## davidka (Dec 12, 2001)

Sagan could win green, no way he wins white. He'll lose a day in the mountains, most likely on purpose to save his legs for more stage win opportunities. Even without the jersey, he is clearly the best young rider.


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## twain (May 18, 2004)

My favorite, Kloden, is hanging on in 10th place--awesome!
I can't believe how strong Sagan is; what a freaking stud. Maybe he will win Green and White!
Interesting how Cavendish now seems suddenly "older", isn't it?


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

twain said:


> My favorite, Kloden, is hanging on in 10th place--awesome!
> I can't believe how strong Sagan is; what a freaking stud. Maybe he will win Green and White!
> Interesting how Cavendish now seems suddenly "older", isn't it?


Sagan is super-impressive.
But no way he can win white. He will lose 10 minutes per high mountain stage.

Cav is still a king of bunch sprints. Sagan is a strong man sprinter / classics man for the future. Very different skills.
This TdF favors time trialists for yellow and classics/strong men for green. But in other, more sprint-friendly years Cav would still have an edge on Greene, not for long though.

We have to be careful with predictions though. At some point I thought Basso (and then Valverde) would for sure win multiple TdFs. Still waiting for their first one.


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## twain (May 18, 2004)

So here we are on stage 6. 
Some of these predictions relevant, some now way off!

1. Cadel Evans - 6
2. Bradley Wiggins -2 
3. Denis Menchov - 5
4. Andreas Kloden - 9
5. Ryder Hesjedal - 108
6. Levi Leipheimer - 22
7.Tony Martin - 151
8. Christian Vande Velde - 127
9. Samuel Sanchez - 20 
10. Sylvain Chavanel - 3
11. Chris Horner - 24
12. Alejandro Valverde - 34
13. Vincenzo Nibali - 7
14. Ivan Basso - 18
15. Peter Sagan - 8
16. Frank Schleck - 37

Real shame for Ryder


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