# Stage IV Post-Race Chew and Digest



## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

...the other thread is enormous.

Post race thoughts and observations?


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## Andrea138 (Mar 10, 2008)

Yes- on the Versus live internet feed, after the reporter interviewed Fabian in English, the camera/mic was still on when the next reporter started interviewing him in French, and he made a seamless transition from one to another. It was beautiful.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*who pulled for astana?*

hi - just got out of a mtg. I was able to hear the very end of eurosport broadcast.
how was pulling distributed by astana? specifically, did AC pull as much as LA? Or more?


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

PJay said:


> hi - just got out of a mtg. I was able to hear the very end of eurosport broadcast.
> how was pulling distributed by astana? specifically, did AC pull as much as LA? Or more?


LA pulled a lot more than AC...and looked stronger overall, at least in the TT. Lance probably pulled more than any member on Astana today.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Damn Swiss timing. That's all I have to say.


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## Slow Eddie (Jun 28, 2004)

So, who was first across the line for Astana? I know my pick (Popo) faded near the end...


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Astana can't win? Wrong. Lance can't be in yellow? Well, almost wrong. 

Astana didn't want to get yellow? Definitely wrong.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Klöden was first I think.

In other news, Astana are now 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 on GC for the day at least


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

I still think Cont shot Lance a look as he sprinted by in the last drive home. I may definitely be reading into it, but that sprint looked to be a timed and purposeful "in your face" move on his part. 

Of course, I'm sure Cont isn't all too happy at having to deal with a threat from within his own team. If so, can't blame him for getting a bit pissy.

They'll get it all sorted out, in the meantime the drama is well, silly but entertaining for us mere mortals.

A surprise (amongst many) of the day? Garmin with five guys. Great job Garmin guys.


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## danl1 (Jul 23, 2005)

Andrea138 said:


> Yes- on the Versus live internet feed, after the reporter interviewed Fabian in English, the camera/mic was still on when the next reporter started interviewing him in French, and he made a seamless transition from one to another. It was beautiful.


Being Swiss will do that to ya. Prolly coulda gone down the line a couple more, certainly one.

/Betting the French was quite a bit better than his very respectable English.


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## Argentius (Aug 26, 2004)

*right where they need to be.*

I don't know that they TRIED to ease off a fraction of a hair, but it worked out well. LA doesn't want to defend yellow all the way from here to Paris, and it's too hard to methodically try to give it away in Spain.

But there's no GC riders between him and the top. Perfect.

In other news, TTT's on 3-foot ride roads are fun.

LA looked like pulled way the heck more than Contador, etc. Popo thrashed himself into oblivion for a little while there.


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## steelbikerider (Feb 7, 2005)

Now we get to see what the other teams are made of. Do they sit and ride for 3rd or do they attack. They only way to break the Astana lock on the podium is to go an long attacks.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

AC looked back at the end for Lance right before crossing the line

whether his pulls were brief because he was not having a good day or he was worried about hanging in the group like Ryder on Garmin does not speak well for him. He either didn't want to use his legs much which refers to team cohesion or he didn't have the strength which is hard to believe

Lance congratulated several team8s after the stage but Contador's absence was noted and LA didn't wait

upon taking the stage Lance was the only one who shook hands and held the trophy which is interesting 

it is all up to interpretation but after Contador's remarks yesterday upon feeling he was "flicked" I think it is obvious that it is going to be war between them and Contador was saving his energy/legs today and only hoping to gain time rivals outside his team to allow him more room to do what he wants in the mountains

the mountains will go like this - someone not from Astana will attack, all will follow until someone Lance or Contador makes their move to see if the other can follow OR Levi will pace hard making the selection slim and then it will just be one big attack to see who can climb better but Lance does have 19seconds on him and the ITT puts pressure on both of them

I don't think Lance wants to go into the ITT with less than 2 minutes on Contador so he must have a plan to attack on one of the stages - unless he is waiting on Ventoux which wouldn't be sound tactics


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

CARBON110 said:


> AC looked back at the end for Lance right before crossing the line
> 
> whether his pulls were brief because he was not having a good day or he was worried about hanging in the group like Ryder on Garmin does not speak well for him. He either didn't want to use his legs much which refers to team cohesion or he didn't have the strength which is hard to believe
> 
> ...




Personally I hate all the sensationalism, the conjectures and speculations on infighting...and here I sucked myself into it by posting about it (below). Mia culpa.

It does make for a "Great Tour" by historical definition, but it's got to be hell on the guys.

I see your point about how the mountain stages initially may play out. Very plausible.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Argentius said:


> I don't know that they TRIED to ease off a fraction of a hair, but it worked out well. LA doesn't want to defend yellow all the way from here to Paris, and it's too hard to methodically try to give it away in Spain.
> 
> But there's no GC riders between him and the top. Perfect.
> 
> ...



Popo is easily one of my most favorite racers of all time.


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

I don't see Lance trying to attack Contador unless he sees some weakness. I say he just tries to hold his advantage, gain some time in the time trial and hold on in the Alps. That is if he's in the mix at all when the road turns uphill.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*prediction: ventoux = non-story*

i do not think that climbers can sit around waiting for everyone else to give up on ventoux.

GC contender climbers are gonna have to get some time on the field long before the penultimate day, and as early as possible, with things so chaotic this early in july.

so, i predict: ventoux will be as uneventful as the ride into paris. it will be tough, as each contender tries to at least maintain their position, while waiting to see who blows up. the only changes will be if a contender cannot hang on all the way to the top; it will be whomever's to lose, not anyone's to go win.


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## TedH (Jan 1, 1970)

Very impressed with Garmin going to 5 so early (WTF?) and to be honest with Liquigas for doing a much better job than I would've expected.

Cancellara made a "swiss timing" comment in his French interview, which was pretty funny (to go along with his Swiss accent when he speaks French).


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## RkFast (Dec 11, 2004)

All I know is four days in and this Tour has been unbelievable so far.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*GC = all-around, and capo: who fits the bill so far? AC or LA*

i think that astana may be looking at AC and asking: is he a 'capo'? isn't a GC rider supposed to be all-around, not just a strong climber? why isn't AC pulling us in on this time trial? Is our GC a one-trick pony?


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

PJay said:


> i do not think that climbers can sit around waiting for everyone else to give up on ventoux.
> 
> GC contender climbers are gonna have to get some time on the field long before the penultimate day, and as early as possible, with things so chaotic this early in july.
> 
> so, i predict: ventoux will be as uneventful as the ride into paris. it will be tough, as each contender tries to at least maintain their position, while waiting to see who blows up. the only changes will be if a contender cannot hang on all the way to the top; it will be whomever's to lose, not anyone's to go win.


This is hard to swallow. 

The non-astana contenders need to get time back, now. 

I think there will be attacks on the Ventoux. I say watch for Liquigas (probably dead wrong, but their performance in the TTT belies something else other than just showing up). Otherwise, the race may be a long victory ride into Paris by astana.


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Popo is one of the hardmen of the peloton indeed. He gives a LOT everytime up till he's cooked. A real strong rider and classy teammate as well.

I was disappointed he got dropped because he deserves to be in the final group just to gain time. But of course, he gave his all and was spent. Kudos to him as always.


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## Argentius (Aug 26, 2004)

He's one of those eastern-block "nails" tough guys for sure. I'll bet he's glad to work for the Boss again.


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## Falling Snow (Apr 2, 2008)

It looked to me like Lance was taking longer pulls than Contador. However, I think it's hard to say for sure how the pulls were distributed throughout the team because I would expect the coverage to go back to Astana anytime Lance was pulling and have a tendency to go to other teams still on course when he wasn't. At least, that's how it seemed to me.

I too thought that Liquigas put in a solid performance, and it seemed like Garmin capitalized a little bit after taking it easy yesterday in contrast to Team Columbia.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

TmaxR said:


> I don't see Lance trying to attack Contador unless he sees some weakness. I say he just tries to hold his advantage, gain some time in the time trial and hold on in the Alps. That is if he's in the mix at all when the road turns uphill.


If the first time trial (which was pretty short) is any indication, lance needs to put more time into Contador (and a few in the rest of the field) to win.

Len


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

TedH said:


> Very impressed with Garmin going to 5 so early (WTF?) and to be honest with Liquigas for doing a much better job than I would've expected.
> 
> Cancellara made a "swiss timing" comment in his French interview, which was pretty funny (to go along with his Swiss accent when he speaks French).


Good to see him hold onto yellow for another day. 

Liquigas, yes I was a bit surprised too.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

PJay said:


> i think that astana may be looking at AC and asking: is he a 'capo'? isn't a GC rider supposed to be all-around, not just a strong climber? why isn't AC pulling us in on this time trial? Is our GC a one-trick pony?


Or the team strategy was to protect Contadors legs for teh mountains and sacrifice anyone else (including Lance) who is not seen as a real contendor...

It's all conjecture at this point. Until the first big mountain day, we really don't know who has the legs.

len


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## dodger150 (Feb 15, 2005)

*Lance and Yellow...*

Another way of looking at this is that Lance may have wanted the yellow jersey very badly. Only he knows how strong he really is. In the pre race interviews I saw, he seemed to downplay his chances by acknowledging that age had taken a toll, and the comeback was more difficult that he expected. Was he sandbagging... who knows. If he really does feel that way, this may have been his last realistic chance of wearing yellow.

My personal feeling is that Cont is going to be strongest in the mts and will ultimately pull away. Lance will want stage 20 though! Maybe he will ultimately work for Cont in exchange for a pull up Vonteau!

Regardless, the unexpected (to me) competitiveness of Armstrong is making this very interesting!


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

PJay said:


> i think that astana may be looking at AC and asking: is he a 'capo'? isn't a GC rider supposed to be all-around, not just a strong climber? why isn't AC pulling us in on this time trial? Is our GC a one-trick pony?


The guy wins the Spanish national championship in the TT and finishes second to the current gold medalist in the first TT. I think he's shown his chops in the TT.


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## CARBON110 (Apr 17, 2002)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Personally I hate all the sensationalism, the conjectures and speculations on infighting...and here I sucked myself into it by posting about it (below). Mia culpa.
> 
> It does make for a "Great Tour" by historical definition, but it's got to be hell on the guys.
> 
> I see your point about how the mountain stages initially may play out. Very plausible.


I hear ya buddy

the real question is I don't see Contador waiting for Lance. All Lance has to do is match other GC rivals in the mountains to take yellow - today Contador let Lance waste himself while he gained time on everyone outside the team

question: how bad will it be to attack your team8 when he has the MJ? How bad is it to attack your team8 when he is set to take the MJ?

ask Lemond? =)

neither is going to want to enter the last ITT with less than 2 minutes on the other. If the time gaps are close when Vontoux rolls around it could mean a second chance to whoever is behind especially if someone is having a bad day

my guess is Contador will attack attack attack - he didn't come here to pace Lance just as Lance didn't come to the Tour this year to watch someone else win. 

Lance did a heck of a lot of pre race mountain recon the week before the race. I think that was to prep himself for his own tactics or react to Contador's 

given Contador's TT performance Lance is going to want to be well ahead of him and Vontoux might be a chance to make up any time gaps for either or to simply match the other for the win

either way the ITT and Vontoux will be second chances


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

dodger150 said:


> Regardless, *the unexpected (to me) competitiveness of Armstrong *is making this very interesting!



Unexpected? 

Mwwaaahhaahhaa.  


Surprise!


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

*Who knows with Lance...*



dodger150 said:


> Another way of looking at this is that Lance may have wanted the yellow jersey very badly. Only he knows how strong he really is. In the pre race interviews I saw, he seemed to downplay his chances by acknowledging that age had taken a toll, and the comeback was more difficult that he expected. Was he sandbagging... who knows. If he really does feel that way, this may have been his last realistic chance of wearing yellow.
> 
> My personal feeling is that Cont is going to be strongest in the mts and will ultimately pull away. Lance will want stage 20 though! Maybe he will ultimately work for Cont in exchange for a pull up Vonteau!
> 
> Regardless, the unexpected (to me) competitiveness of Armstrong is making this very interesting!


Interesting point. But you never know with Lance. He got a good poker face and likes ot keep people guessing. And he always really loved the TTT. He always took pride in trying to win it with USPS and then Discovery. And so his desire and effort today may just be that TTT pride again.


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

Len J said:


> If the first time trial (which was pretty short) is any indication, lance needs to put more time into Contador (and a few in the rest of the field) to win.
> 
> Len


Dispite stage one results, if Lance is still in contention when they get to Annecy, I expect him to take time from Contador. The course looks well suited to his TT style.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

TmaxR said:


> Dispite stage one results, if Lance is still in contention when they get to Annecy, I expect him to take time from Contador. The course looks well suited to his TT style.


Sounds like a wish more than an expectation.

Lots of racing left.
.....& I expect the mountains will decide this tour.



len


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## ping771 (Apr 10, 2006)

PJay said:


> i do not think that climbers can sit around waiting for everyone else to give up on ventoux.
> 
> GC contender climbers are gonna have to get some time on the field long before the penultimate day, and as early as possible, with things so chaotic this early in july.
> 
> so, i predict: ventoux will be as uneventful as the ride into paris. it will be tough, as each contender tries to at least maintain their position, while waiting to see who blows up. the only changes will be if a contender cannot hang on all the way to the top; it will be whomever's to lose, not anyone's to go win.


+1 on that. 
For Armstrong to win, he will have to continue to find a way to incrementally increase his lead over Contador, for two reasons. 1) Unlike 1999-2005 Armstrong is probably not as strong as he was in the mountains, and I am sure that Contador will likely beat him in the Pyrennes and Alps, and erase most, if not all of Armstrong's lead over him, 2) As a tactical decision, Armstrong needs to take command now. The longer he continues his lead over Contador, even if it's less than a 1 min lead, the more "legitimate" he will be seen as the tour leader. If Armstrong just waits til the Pyrennes or Alps to make a bold move (which I don't think he physically can do), he will certainly look more like he just wants to beat Contador, rather than be viewed as the unequivocal tour leader, which I think is how he wishes to be seen. My humble guess is that he will build a lead over the course of the race, try maintain a slim lead over Contador throughout the mountains, and win it by the final ITT. 

The interesting thing is what if Lance is about 20 or so seconds behind Contador by the final ITT? Will Bruyneel let both of them duke it out, or will Lance defer to Contador?


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## lousylegs (Jul 15, 2005)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> ...the other thread is enormous.
> 
> Post race thoughts and observations?


So would that make our responses regurgitations?


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

ping771 said:


> +1 on that.
> For Armstrong to win, he will have to continue to find a way to incrementally increase his lead over Contador, for two reasons. 1) Unlike 1999-2005 Armstrong is probably not as strong as he was in the mountains, and I am sure that Contador will likely beat him in the Pyrennes and Alps, and erase most, if not all of Armstrong's lead over him, 2) As a tactical decision, Armstrong needs to take command now. The longer he continues his lead over Contador, even if it's less than a 1 min lead, the more "legitimate" he will be seen as the tour leader. If Armstrong just waits til the Pyrennes or Alps to make a bold move (which I don't think he physically can do), he will certainly look more like he just wants to beat Contador, rather than be viewed as the unequivocal tour leader, which I think is how he wishes to be seen. My humble guess is that he will build a lead over the course of the race, try maintain a slim lead over Contador throughout the mountains, and win it by the final ITT.
> 
> The interesting thing is what if Lance is about 20 or so seconds behind Contador by the final ITT? Will Bruyneel let both of them duke it out, or will Lance defer to Contador?


This makes no sense.

It's unlikely that lance can gain any time on Contador anywhere other than in an ITT or in the mountains. (Unless there is a wreck that Contador gets caught behind), 

A 20 second gap in the mountains will disappear quickly if Lance can't stay with contador or vice versa.

No GS worth their salt would hold someone back in an ITT.

Len


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

ping771 said:


> The interesting thing is what if Lance is about 20 or so seconds behind Contador by the final ITT? Will Bruyneel let both of them duke it out, or will Lance defer to Contador?


Why would anyone "defer" in a ITT?


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

We'll know on Friday. With healthy leads over the other contenders, will Astana ride aggressively on Friday? I doubt it.


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## nenad (May 5, 2004)

For me, the priceless moment was Ben Stiller coming on to podium so bummed out that it won't be Lance he'll be putting the yellow on 

He was like, hey congratulations man...whatever...


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## uzziefly (Jul 15, 2006)

Argentius said:


> He's one of those eastern-block "nails" tough guys for sure. I'll bet he's glad to work for the Boss again.


Dude, who're you quoting buddy??!!


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## cammccarty (Jul 21, 2008)

I can't wait till contador dances away from Lance in the mountains. I'm surprised by how much people are trying to fool themselves. Can't wait till conta gives LA the look and says see ya later, thanks for coming out ol' man. Shoulda stayed home. These first few stages mean NOTHING.


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## llama31 (Jan 13, 2006)

*defer?!?*



ping771 said:


> The interesting thing is what if Lance is about 20 or so seconds behind Contador by the final ITT? Will Bruyneel let both of them duke it out, or will Lance defer to Contador?


You can be certain that neither Lance nor Contador will defer if they're close. I think Lance will ride extremely agressive into Arcalis on Friday. He needs to prove that he's stronger to get the team behind him and I think he gains a lot if he can intimidate Contador a little. It's a long shot at his age, but I wouldn't count it out. 

If contador takes time on Friday, it'll be interesting to see what Lance does after.


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

Len J said:


> Sounds like a wish more than an expectation.


Let's call it a hunch. 



Len J said:


> Lots of racing left.
> .....& I expect the mountains will decide this tour.


They usually do, don't they, but the ITT has been the downfall of many a great climber. You need to excel in both disciplines to win the Tour.


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## Guest (Jul 7, 2009)

PJay said:


> i do not think that climbers can sit around waiting for everyone else to give up on ventoux.
> 
> GC contender climbers are gonna have to get some time on the field long before the penultimate day, and as early as possible, with things so chaotic this early in july.
> 
> so, i predict: ventoux will be as uneventful as the ride into paris. it will be tough, as each contender tries to at least maintain their position, while waiting to see who blows up. the only changes will be if a contender cannot hang on all the way to the top; it will be whomever's to lose, not anyone's to go win.


I disagree with respects to Ventoux. Lance has been very vocal about his Ventoux regrets. No matter what his place in GC is when Ventoux starts I think Lance wants to erase the only low spot on his resume with a win on Ventoux.


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## ping771 (Apr 10, 2006)

Len J said:


> This makes no sense.
> 
> It's unlikely that lance can gain any time on Contador anywhere other than in an ITT or in the mountains. (Unless there is a wreck that Contador gets caught behind),
> 
> ...


I guess what I am saying is that Lance could possibly increase his lead to over a minute by the mountain stages, and hope to stay onto Contador in the mountains, while not winning any mountain stages, but stay within a minute or less of him.


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

cammccarty said:


> Can't wait till conta gives LA the look and says see ya later, thanks for coming out ol' man.


May well happen. More likely than not, I suppose, but this ol' man will believe it when I see it.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

It's pretty obvious that Astana's plan is to destroy everyone and then settle amongst themselves if hasn't sorted itself already. I don't think the dissension really exists as of yet. That will happen much later on in the heat and in the mountains after the other GCs have been all but eliminated from contention.

Who has been pretty much knocked out of contention already? Menchov for sure maybe Sastre, Evans.... and a few others not worth mentioning.


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## dodger150 (Feb 15, 2005)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Unexpected?
> 
> Mwwaaahhaahhaa.
> 
> ...


Yes... too general a statement on my part. I did think LA would be competitive and in top 10 or so, but I did not expect him to compete for the race victory. I still don't, but you never know.... Regardless, you got to hand it to him...the old man is tearing it up


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

ping771 said:


> I guess what I am saying is that Lance could possibly increase his lead to over a minute by the mountain stages, and hope to stay onto Contador in the mountains, while not winning any mountain stages, but stay within a minute or less of him.


How is he going to pick up time on contador prior to the mountains?

Len


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## team_sheepshead (Jan 17, 2003)

The guy with a dozen posts is right. I know RBR is filled with fanboys, but even this thread is getting a little silly. If it were anyone else but Lance, face it, he would be given no chance in hell of beating Contador on GC. He's 37, coming off an injury and is competing against the best Grand Tour rider of this generation. 

You idjits, Lance owns part of this team. Why would he purposely try to blow it apart and piss off his best rider? Contador could win another 8 Grand Tours before he is done, and Lance wants him to do it riding for a team owned by Lance.

Lance had the team do three things very successfully today: 1) Save Contador's legs; 2) keep Saxo Bank defending the yellow jersey; 3) keep all the media attention right where he wants it--on him and this supposed rift in the team. This way, Contador can get some rest without dealing with 50 media interviews.

Grow up, people. Watch some bike racing sometime.



cammccarty said:


> I can't wait till contador dances away from Lance in the mountains. I'm surprised by how much people are trying to fool themselves. Can't wait till conta gives LA the look and says see ya later, thanks for coming out ol' man. Shoulda stayed home. These first few stages mean NOTHING.


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## ttug (May 14, 2004)

*hmmmm*



team_sheepshead said:


> The guy with a dozen posts is right. I know RBR is filled with fanboys, but even this thread is getting a little silly. If it were anyone else but Lance, face it, he would be given no chance in hell of beating Contador on GC. He's 37, coming off an injury and is competing against the best Grand Tour rider of this generation.
> 
> You idjits, Lance owns part of this team. Why would he purposely try to blow it apart and piss off his best rider? Contador could win another 8 Grand Tours before he is done, and Lance wants him to do it riding for a team owned by Lance.
> 
> ...


I heart Team_Sheepshead.

Well said


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## Guest (Jul 7, 2009)

Robbie McEwen posted on Twitter that he's sure Lance sat up in the last 50m to keep Cancellara in yellow. Also says LA will win the tour. Can't argue with Robbie...he's a pimp! 

Think about his though. If Johan approaches each member of the team in confidence and asks who they want to support you know for a fact that Levi, Popo, and probably Klodi are with Lance without a doubt. No hesitation. 

I know Lance has a vested interest in the team but don't think for a second that his drive to win isn't clouding that.


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## team_sheepshead (Jan 17, 2003)

gnauss said:


> If Johan approaches each member of the team in confidence and asks who they want to support you know for a fact that Levi, Popo, and probably Klodi are with Lance without a doubt.


Have you ever actually raced on a competitive cycling team? I don't mean this to be disrespectful, but have you? I have. I sucked at it, but I raced for five years. I know dozens of racers. If asked this question, all of us would answer: We support the guy with the best chance of winning the race.

Guys like Levi, Popo and Klodi get their glory (and bonus $$) when their teammate wins the whole shebang. They'll put their money on Contador.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

team_sheepshead said:


> The guy with a dozen posts is right. I know RBR is filled with fanboys, but even this thread is getting a little silly. If it were anyone else but Lance, face it, he would be given no chance in hell of beating Contador on GC. He's 37, coming off an injury and is competing against the best Grand Tour rider of this generation.
> 
> You idjits, Lance owns part of this team. Why would he purposely try to blow it apart and piss off his best rider? Contador could win another 8 Grand Tours before he is done, and Lance wants him to do it riding for a team owned by Lance.
> 
> ...




Wow. You know all that? How did you get into the team bus?


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## team_sheepshead (Jan 17, 2003)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Wow. You know all that? How did you get into the team bus?


I'm actually driving a car in the sponsor caravan. The car is shaped like a giant brain and we throw out common sense to uninformed cycling fans along the roadside. We also throw out little golden shovels to help clear away all the BS left on the roads by the people who don't really understand the business of bike racing.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

OMG!!!!! 4 DAYS IN AND THIS TOUR FREAKIN ROCKS!

i get pulled into a meeting and then lunch and come back to this?

we all like to play like we know what is going on and what will happen. and we all know how media savvy LA is.lets look at what we have heard:
- i am here to raise cancer awareness
- i am here for the team and will do whatever is good for the team
- i am here to compete
- oh yeah, i want to win
- a goal is a stage win
- yeah, i would say i have some unfinished business with ventoux

my take on the day (and the tour):
lance wanted yellow today. he would have gotten the stage, worn yellow, proven the team is the best, and been on teh front page of every freakin newspaper (still being published) in the world. ben stiller giving it to him would have him on TMZ, access hollywood, and all that jazz.

if lance had gotten yellow today, it would have been just like 2004. he takes yellow during the TTT (i was there. it was freakin awesome!), then gives it up to take the heat off. teams wouldnt know who to concentrate on while climbing. this plays into astanas hands. they can rope-a-dope on the climbs all they want. the final ITT would decide the how astana shakes out. if LA and AC are close, the climb up ventoux would see either LA and AC duking it out or working together to get LA over the line first.

the only thing that they didnt get today was yellow.

of course, this is all arm-chair conjecture. and anything can happen with 2+ weeks to go. what will be interesting to see is how other teams will react. will there be inter-team deals to grind astana down? that is the trouble with having so many potential GC threats. you want to keep them together and at the front. who covers the attacks? who pulls them up the hill?

(and what must chris horner be going through right now)

i also need to add this way-out thought: what if LAs goal is really to also have a win in each GT? his orginal goal, pre-collarbone, was the giro. what if he is grinding now with the vuelta a possible goal and the giro his goal next year?


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## Guest (Jul 7, 2009)

team_sheepshead said:


> Have you ever actually raced on a competitive cycling team? I don't mean this to be disrespectful, but have you? I have. I sucked at it, but I raced for five years. I know dozens of racers. If asked this question, all of us would answer: We support the guy with the best chance of winning the race.
> 
> Guys like Levi, Popo and Klodi get their glory (and bonus $$) when their teammate wins the whole shebang. They'll put their money on Contador.


Raced a few times but not on a team so you got me there. I too sucked though. I might be wrong but besides the money they'll get by winning the team classification they usually only get a share of the top GC position. Take that and divide it by 9 and then ask Lance how much he has in his pocket. He may cover Levi on this one. 

Listen, when it comes down to it we're all full of shiite on this one. It fun to sling this stuff around though...


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## ping771 (Apr 10, 2006)

Len J said:


> How is he going to pick up time on contador prior to the mountains?
> 
> Len


By catching another breakaway that Contador fails to capitalize on, or possibly winning another stage.that leaves Contador out of the finishing group. I know that sounds far fetched, but Lance has more tricks up his sleeve. Also I have a feeling that Contador is slowing psyching himself out.


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## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

(warning this post coming from my ass)

I'm assuming the team composition led to this failure today to get yellow. The Kakz rider that Astana forced on the team was worthless (warning: I don't have any idea how he did I'm just assuming he was shelled by the halfway point). With Horner on the squad Lance would have had at least 10 seconds on the saxo team more.


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

team_sheepshead said:


> I'm actually driving a car in the sponsor caravan. The car is shaped like a giant brain and we throw out common sense to uninformed cycling fans along the roadside. We also throw out little golden shovels to help clear away all the BS left on the roads by the people who don't really understand the business of bike racing.




Super! :thumbsup:


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## bobski (Aug 12, 2005)

From LA's Twitter:

"And they might need to repair the pavement on the sections where Alberto was pulling. All in all, great day."

It sounds like AC didn't hold back to save his legs.


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## bauerb (Jan 18, 2006)

we will know very quickly as soon as the race goes up. I still have images in my head of LA getting dropped multiple times at the Giro. I believe that if he is there in the first few mountain days, finishing at least with the other GC contenders, that he will ultimately be the strongest. LA does not tire as the days go by, he gets stronger. a few more days and all will be revealed...


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## team_sheepshead (Jan 17, 2003)

OldEndicottHiway said:


> Super! :thumbsup:


Actually, I should not be such a smarta**. I've am emailing with a guy who is over there in France with the Tour. I don't want to give him away, so let's just say he used to ride for Motorola. He knows what's up.


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

team_sheepshead said:


> You idjits, Lance owns part of this team. Why would he purposely try to blow it apart and piss off his best rider? Contador could win another 8 Grand Tours before he is done, and Lance wants him to do it riding for a team owned by Lance.


I don't believe he owns part of Astana. I think he want's to get Astana's Pro Tour license for a team he will run himself. So you might want to revisit the idjits moniker you are putting on others ...

Otherwise, your point is a good one. Why, indeed, would he want to alienate the best GT prospect available? If I had to make a guess, I'd say "Legacy."

Perhaps Lance sees Contador's talent and is worried about his record of seven Tours. His thinking could be that if he were to defeat Contador now, that he could prove to posterity that he was the best ever.

Perhaps he believes that he can find a better prospect to build his team around?

I'm not sure that I can swallow the gamesmanship angle that most people are putting forth to rationalize this team split.


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## team_sheepshead (Jan 17, 2003)

Gripped said:


> I don't believe he owns part of Astana. I think he want's to get Astana's Pro Tour license for a team he will run himself. So you might want to revisit the idjits moniker you are putting on others ...
> 
> Otherwise, your point is a good one. Why, indeed, would he want to alienate the best GT prospect available? If I had to make a guess, I'd say "Legacy."
> 
> ...


OK, so Lance is willing to blow up his team, pit himself, Levi, Popi, etc. against the best GT rider in the world all for the sake of winning one more Tour de France??

Lance may not officially have equity in the team, but he has stated he is riding this year with no salary as an "investment," and was busting his arse to get sponsors.

From May 7:

<B>Armstrong says sponsors available if Astana team folds</B>

VENICE, Italy (AP) — Lance Armstrong has received "high interest" from sponsors willing to back his cycling team if he takes over control of financially strapped Astana.

Astana receives most of its financial support from Kazakh state holding company Samruk-Kazyna, but the Central Asian nation's economy has been badly hit by the global financial crisis. The team has not paid its employees lately.

"Considering the economy and considering global sports sponsorships ... it's a tough climate for all that stuff. We've had high interest," Armstrong told The Associated Press on Thursday as he prepared for the start of his first Giro d'Italia.

The seven-time Tour de France winner, who has a home in Aspen, Colo., indicated the sponsor would come from a U.S.-based multinational company.

"You're not going to find one in a week and say, 'By the way, we need 10 million bucks, please come on.' They don't jump that quick," he said.

Kazakhstan Cycling Federation deputy chief Nikolai Proskurin indicated he is open to Armstrong taking over.

"I am in favor of developing sport, so if Kazakhstan cannot afford to do it, then some other person may take over," Proskurin told the AP.

"We will be discussing this matter with the prime minister in the coming days. The problem is not with us, it is with the sponsors, who have not paid us."

Proskurin declined to specify the sponsors, although Air Astana is known to have withdrawn its support.

"We have done everything possible," he said, adding that he believes $5 million has been paid to the team this year.

The Astana team has direct backing from President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and there is political will to keep it alive.

"After all, we do not have any other similar projects of this size," Proskurin said.

Armstrong is riding for free for Astana this season after 3 1/2 years of retirement. His Livestrong cancer foundation could play a role in recruiting a team sponsor.

"I'm already investing myself. Not taking a salary is sort of some sort of investment," he said. "There's no equity, you can't own anything in cycling. You can say you own a team, but then you don't own anything. When the contract is up and the obligations of the sponsor are up, you're left with nothing. You're left with bikes and cars and buses and trucks."

The International Cycling Union could revoke Astana's ProTour license if the team does not sort out its financial situation soon, perhaps even before the Giro ends on May 31.

"I think if they pull it and they don't have the funding, that's the last race (for Astana)," Armstrong said. "All that UCI business is out of my league. I don't know any of those rules."

Armstrong suggested nobody on the team is currently being paid.

"I would know if I was taking a paycheck because I'd be livid," he said. "I remember back in the day, there were times (payments) were a couple of days late and I'd go crazy."

Still recovering his form after breaking his collarbone in a fall in March, Armstrong will support teammate Levi Leipheimer during the Giro, which begins with a team time trial Saturday.

"At the dinner table, you don't sense any bitterness or nervousness," Armstrong said. "Most of these dudes are really professional and so they're going to do their job either way. I think they're optimistic something will work out either way. Hopefully they'll pay or we'll find someone else."

Armstrong also said he would do everything he could to keep defending Giro winner and 2007 Tour champion Alberto Contador if ownership ends up in his hands.

"If I were the boss of the team or I were partners with (team director) Johan (Bruyneel), I would want him on the team," Armstrong said. "I would not let him go."

Armstrong had his 26th doping control Thursday as part of the routine UCI checks of all 22 squads ahead of the Giro.

"It's more of health check," he said. "It's part of the UCI's biological passport. ... Just blood, no hair."

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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## Guest (Jul 7, 2009)

bobski said:


> From LA's Twitter:
> 
> "And they might need to repair the pavement on the sections where Alberto was pulling. All in all, great day."
> 
> It sounds like AC didn't hold back to save his legs.


Saw that too but it was after a post where he praised Popo and Klodi. This almost seemed forced.

There I go again reading too much into things!


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*"It's unlikely that lance can gain any time on Contador"*

"It's unlikely that lance can gain any time on Contador anywhere other than in an ITT or in the mountains. (Unless there is a wreck that Contador gets caught behind),"

dude, he just did exactly this. he jacked a 20 seconds from contador on an afternoon club ride. the last time lance saw anything that flat was when he was dating an ol son twin.


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

ping771 said:


> By catching another breakaway that Contador fails to capitalize on, or possibly winning another stage.that leaves Contador out of the finishing group. I know that sounds far fetched, but Lance has more tricks up his sleeve. Also I have a feeling that Contador is slowing psyching himself out.


Unlikely at best.

Len


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## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

PJay said:


> "It's unlikely that lance can gain any time on Contador anywhere other than in an ITT or in the mountains. (Unless there is a wreck that Contador gets caught behind),"
> 
> dude, he just did exactly this. he jacked a 20 seconds from contador on an afternoon club ride. the last time lance saw anything that flat was when he was dating an ol son twin.


I've been watching/following the tour since 1973.....about 36 years, and yesterday was the second or third time I've seen that occur involving a contender. Probabilities would say that it's not going to happen twice in one tour.

Len


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## Gripped (Nov 27, 2002)

team_sheepshead said:


> OK, so Lance is willing to blow up his team, pit himself, Levi, Popi, etc. against the best GT rider in the world all for the sake of winning one more Tour de France??


Yeah, it's crazy. But this is a guy who has proved that he will do what it takes to ascend that step to the top. All I'm saying is that the rational brain agrees with you. But an aging man doesn't always follow reason. This might be Lance's comb over or Harley or Corvette.

Or maybe he's a shrewd operator and Contador pulls him up on the podium for a heartfelt embrace after lance launches him to the victory.

Dunno.



> Lance may not officially have equity in the team, but he has stated he is riding this year with no salary as an "investment," and was busting his arse to get sponsors.


Yeah, I know all about that activity to secure sponsors in lieu of Kazakh money. But the fact is that he doesn't own a part of the team -- as you stated. Also, it is my understanding that Kazakhstan wants to keep the team and have Vinokourov ride on the team. Since Vino's Pro Tour (or whatever they call those teams now) suspension is four years, it seems impossible that Astana can keep the license. That would make one available for Lance and Yohan.


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## Gnarly 928 (Nov 19, 2005)

Grow up, people. Watch some bike racing sometime.[/QUOTE]


You mean like that bike racing yesterday? Cavendish had it right..."Race like a Junior and you will have junior results" or something like that...What the f was the so called 'best stage racer in the world" doing back there when the course changed directions? Didn't he figure out that all those guys in yellow and white might be wanting to start their sprint train soon? Sheesh, the whole team was up there in a line..Cancillara even jumped the divider, rather than waiting to go round the end of it just to make that break...All the while ole Contador musta been on siesta...

At least he didn't try to chase em down after the break got away...But it looked like he started to do just that once...saw him flying along up the right side of the pack once...then he musta remembered....

Just a guess but I think LA is really trying to win this Tour..


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Gripped said:


> I don't believe he owns part of Astana. I think he want's to get Astana's Pro Tour license for a team he will run himself. So you might want to revisit the idjits moniker you are putting on others ...
> 
> Otherwise, your point is a good one. Why, indeed, would he want to alienate the best GT prospect available? If I had to make a guess, I'd say "Legacy."
> 
> ...


Per LA quote today, "In my mind there's always been multiple leaders of the team." That seems to be what the other riders are and have been parroting, as well as Bruyneel. 

If taken at face value, it means no more than, "may the best man win." The end.

I'm cool with that.


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## Henry Porter (Jul 25, 2006)

I must admit, I find Armstrong arrogant, not very likeable and think he probably doped/is doping. That said, it sure is fun to watch the old guy make the race interesting.


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## TmaxR (Aug 31, 2008)

Gripped said:


> This might be Lance's comb over or Harley or Corvette.


Oh, come on!! He's not THAT old!!


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

team_sheepshead said:


> OK, so Lance is willing to blow up his team, pit himself, Levi, Popi, etc. against the best GT rider in the world all for the sake of winning one more Tour de France??
> 
> Lance may not officially have equity in the team, but he has stated he is riding this year with no salary as an "investment," and was busting his arse to get sponsors.
> 
> ...


Hey, champ. Don't post entire articles in a thread.


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## BassNBrew (Aug 4, 2008)

JohnHenry said:


> Hey, champ. Don't post entire articles in a thread.


Well at least cut out the "Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed."

other than that, thanks for posting the article


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Henry Porter said:


> I must admit, I find Armstrong arrogant, not very likeable and think he probably doped/is doping. *That said, it sure is fun to watch the old guy make the race interesting*.



Isn't it though. I'm also enjoying the team as a whole...there's some good guys in that group. Levi and Popo are class all the way, it would seem.

Personally, I don't dislike LA at all and rather enjoy his personna as a whole, not to mention his riding style (gorgeous) and tactics. But I wouldn't want to snuggle up to the guy, either. Might walk away missing a leg.


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## loudog (Jul 22, 2008)

a lot of discussion about the physical strength of armstrong v. contador in the the mountains but i think that misses the mark a bit. i dont think LA was always the best physical rider during his tour wins. i believe he won with mental strength, a massive fear of failure and psyching out other riders. from a psychological perspective i think he holds an advantage over conty - LA has nothing to lose and relatively little pressure. conty has to worry about team allegiance, whether team strategy is fully focused on him, and whether he has the balls to beat LA. all it takes is a little doubt to create a downward spriral of anxiety, distraction and weakness.

ps: if LA is the strongest guy on the team the he should be supported.

pss: i imagine that conty doesnt want LA to lay down either. if it appears that LA takes his foot off the pedal so conty can win then it takes from the victory. the best case sceanario for conty is that he and LA are tied or close to it going into the last mountain stage - and that with a super-human effort he drops LA and rides to victory. he doesnt want LA to hold back.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

team_sheepshead said:


> The guy with a dozen posts is right. I know RBR is filled with fanboys, but even this thread is getting a little silly. If it were anyone else but Lance, face it, he would be given no chance in hell of beating Contador on GC. He's 37, coming off an injury and is competing against the best Grand Tour rider of this generation.
> 
> You idjits, Lance owns part of this team. Why would he purposely try to blow it apart and piss off his best rider? Contador could win another 8 Grand Tours before he is done, and Lance wants him to do it riding for a team owned by Lance.
> 
> ...


Meh, it's the procycling forum during the tour. You expect every idiot to show up and tell everyone how the race will play out. Even more people think they know the keys to victory to the superbowl but have never played a down or coached a pop warner team.


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## ping771 (Apr 10, 2006)

loudog said:


> a lot of discussion about the physical strength of armstrong v. contador in the the mountains but i think that misses the mark a bit. i dont think LA was always the best physical rider during his tour wins. i believe he won with mental strength, a massive fear of failure and psyching out other riders. from a psychological perspective i think he holds an advantage over conty - LA has nothing to lose and relatively little pressure. conty has to worry about team allegiance, whether team strategy is fully focused on him, and *whether he has the balls to beat LA*. all it takes is a little doubt to create a downward spriral of anxiety, distraction and weakness.
> 
> ps: if LA is the strongest guy on the team the he should be supported.


Well, Contador does beat Lance in the ball count. Heh heh.


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