# Tour Stage 1: 191k



## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

Let's get this party started early. For those of us yanks staring down the 4th of July, I thought I would get the Stage 1 predictions thread up and running a few days early. Nazz44 has an overall predictions thread going for anyone who wants to throw down early. Without further ado, let's start predicting like fools!

It looks like the tour dirctor was as anxious as the fans to get le Tour started and chose to ditch the prologue for a true stage this year. This should help out Andy Schleck, who lost valuable time out of the gate last year. And, if the Tour du Suisse is any indication, he either still doesn't know how to shift or invited his Saxo Bank mechanic to join Team Leopard.

The race will cross the Passage du Gois, which hides under the sea at high tide. Don't worry, the tides are even easier to predict than the rail schedule, so nobody should be left to doggy paddle. The start will primarily be used for photo shoots, as opposed to the last they tried this crossing.

After crossing the straight they will travel 63k South along the coast before hanging a left and heading inland. Twenty-four klicks later the great "one intermediate sprint" experiment begins. The road stays flat until about 65k to go, then things start to get a little bumpy. Nothing to write home about until market 174, when the first hill of the 2011 tour tops out. We get a nice downhill before kicking up for an uphill sprint. Yes, this edition of the turn of France starts with an uphill finish. We usually see some carnage the first few stages of the Tour, but the incline might take that away this year. And after last year's traffic furniture incidents, I think we have enough Tour crash clips in the highlight reel.

I think the recently slimmed-down Cavendish won't factor into this stage, as HTC is trying to figure out the leadout train. Thor is a strong uphill finisher, but Garmin has had trouble getting its ducks in line as well. Plus many think they may have too many sprinters in teh kitchen. Boonen is looking to return, especially after the disaster in the Arenburg this Easter. Gilbert is looking to score his first stage in sporting le Bleu, but the coastal winds could shred the peloton and open it up for a rare break to get away. I doubt any team would allow that to happen so early in the race, however if the 2011 Tour is anything like the 2011 Giro anything can happen. Cancellara? Petacchi? Brutt? Feillu? Boom? Why don't I just name every non-GC rider except the one that will ultimately take the stage. And the first golden fleece.

Cancellara gets bored with waiting for things to happen, opens it up early and breaks the rainbow curse. _(i just realized i am an idiot. well, i have known that for some time, but in this case its very apparent. i completely - and utterly - forgot thor is currently sporting teh rainbow stripes. i guess it slipped my mind because he really hasnt done much in that spiffy white and roygbiv jersey. which is what the curse is all about. that doesnt explain why i forgot evans was the champion last year. now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.) _Heck, he could keep the yellow for two days if they just get behind him in the following day's TTT. Who ya got?

Anyone find a better profile pic?


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Tommy Voekler!


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

How's this?  !!


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## erj549 (Jul 26, 2008)

Vino takes it from 1k out!


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## Opus51569 (Jul 21, 2009)

Awwww yeah... it's not a Tour, til Ed starts posting the stage breakdowns...


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## SRV (Dec 26, 2006)

Uphill finish like that has Gilbert written all over it. A mid level climber type could take it - say a L.L. Sanchez.


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## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

Matty Goss


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

Gilbert. Has the legs and the mental mindset to win it.


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## Cinelli 82220 (Dec 2, 2010)

Cavendish and his teammates might be riding harder this year if they are trying to impress potential employers.

Stage 1 does look like a Gilbert type stage, he could take the yellow and green jerseys in one shot.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

a reasonably long draggy hill, so yeah, Gilbert maybe.


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## BicycleBastard (Mar 5, 2011)

I got Thor Hushovd of course! With a proper lead out this guy is just so powerful in an uphill sprint.


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

I think Thor or Petacchi will take it.

///// thanks for doing this, Ed.


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## harlond (May 30, 2005)

Gilbert says he wants the maillot jeune (sp?), and I can't think of anything he's wanted this year that he didn't get. Otherwise Peter Sagan.


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## Jwiffle (Mar 18, 2005)

harlond said:


> Gilbert says he wants the maillot jeune (sp?), and I can't think of anything he's wanted this year that he didn't get. Otherwise Peter Sagan.


I thought Sagan wasn't in the Tour.

I'm going with Thor.


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## DZfan14 (Jul 6, 2009)

Gilbert
Thor
Tommy V.


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## 88 rex (Mar 18, 2008)

Gilbert
Thor
Goss


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Gilbert in Yellow, Green, and Dots?.

Maybe not Green, though. He probably won't go for the inter sprint like Thor, Goss, et al.


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## empty_set (Nov 1, 2006)

Gilbert with a breakaway.

If they can keep the group together:
Cavendish
Thor
Farrar


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## robdamanii (Feb 13, 2006)

Gilbert or Voekler.


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## mtrider05 (Aug 8, 2009)

Gilbert.


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## haikalah (Oct 5, 2004)

"Cancellara gets bored with waiting for things to happen, opens it up early and breaks the rainbow curse."

I don't understand that sentence. Can someone explain it to me?

Thx.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

Gilbert. But since many mentioned him already, Vino.


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## empty_set (Nov 1, 2006)

haikalah said:


> "Cancellara gets bored with waiting for things to happen, opens it up early and breaks the rainbow curse."
> 
> I don't understand that sentence. Can someone explain it to me?
> 
> Thx.


Cancellara goes on a breakaway.

The rainbow curse tends to affect the current wearer.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

empty_set said:


> Cancellara goes on a breakaway.
> 
> The rainbow curse tends to affect the current wearer.


/\this/\
and fabian has shown in that past he can get distance when he needs it. a few years back in one of the first 4 stages the pack wasnt revving it up. cancellara just ITTed it to the line. it took everyone by surprise.

plus, with the two lil hills there, i can see him use this as a mini ronde. in the past he has been able to get daylight on the cobbled climbs. i can see leopard trying to nab the yellow on day one, giving the team extra motivation for the TTT.
which spartacus will be doing the lions share of the work.


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## empty_set (Nov 1, 2006)

weltyed said:


> /\this/\
> and fabian has shown in that past he can get distance when he needs it. a few years back in one of the first 4 stages the pack wasnt revving it up. cancellara just ITTed it to the line. it took everyone by surprise.
> 
> plus, with the two lil hills there, i can see him use this as a mini ronde. in the past he has been able to get daylight on the cobbled climbs. i can see leopard trying to nab the yellow on day one, giving the team extra motivation for the TTT.
> which spartacus will be doing the lions share of the work.


I didn't consider Spartacus doing this but can see it now.


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## mtrider05 (Aug 8, 2009)

weltyed said:


> /\this/\
> and fabian has shown in that past he can get distance when he needs it. a few years back in one of the first 4 stages the pack wasnt revving it up. cancellara just ITTed it to the line. it took everyone by surprise.
> 
> plus, with the two lil hills there, i can see him use this as a mini ronde. in the past he has been able to get daylight on the cobbled climbs. i can see leopard trying to nab the yellow on day one, giving the team extra motivation for the TTT.
> which spartacus will be doing the lions share of the work.


I would love to see that, Spartacus always delivers exciting racing.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

mtrider05 said:


> I would love to see that, Spartacus always delivers exciting racing.


problem is i think it was the first stage and he had the jaune after the prologue. i dont know if he would have done it if he werent in yellow, but he CAN do it. and if he races for it here, he could be in yellow the first two days. plus i think leopard would go last in the very short TTT the next day.


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## Creakyknees (Sep 21, 2003)

I have this video favorited in my youtube account:


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

Creakyknees said:


> I have this video favorited in my youtube account:


That was awesome! 

Thanks for sharing!


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## alexb618 (Aug 24, 2006)

vinokourov


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## coop (Jun 8, 2008)

It has a Gilbert vs. Cunego late season classic feel to it. I'll go with Gilbert simply because he wants to be in yellow early, and he's looking for a contract. Plus, Cunego supposedly has GC ambitions and it'll be too early to play his cards.


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## Cyclebot81 (Jun 24, 2011)

Haha....George Hindcapie!


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

empty_set said:


> Cancellara goes on a breakaway.
> 
> The rainbow curse tends to affect the current wearer.


And who'd the current wearer again? :skep:


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## Red Sox Junkie (Sep 15, 2005)

I'm thinking it will come down to a group of 20 sprinting it out. With the yellow jersey on the line I don't see the teams of the sprinters letting a long distance break away get too much breathing room. Maybe a late break with a strong all -rounder type like Gilbert or Cancellara. There are a bunch of guys salivating over the yellow jersey (Vino) who could jump with a km or two to go. Should be a great finish. 

It's the beginning of July and Ed's stage previews have started. All is right in the world today!


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Creakyknees said:


> I have this video favorited in my youtube account:


"That serves them completely and utterly right!" A classic call of a classic win.

JSR


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

I'm tired of fabian wearing yellow for the first several stages. If its a Sprint, I'm picking Thor. If a flyer takes it, I'm picking vino.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

thechriswebb said:


> I'm tired of fabian wearing yellow...


BLASPHEMER!
next you will say you are tired of watching jens put an end to the sunday ride and deliver the pain.


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

leotard trek will make the play for yellow.


Jens or O'Grady for laughs


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## thechriswebb (Nov 21, 2008)

weltyed said:


> BLASPHEMER!
> next you will say you are tired of watching jens put an end to the sunday ride and deliver the pain.




Not a fair comparison at all. I love Jens, who rides hard without being a pretentious pr!ck and who doesn't wear a boo boo face and whine and blame/insult everyone around him when he loses. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nqd-Nxk4JoE&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSCAYy9egyY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUSaPRSiQhM


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

JohnHenry said:


> Jens or O'Grady for laughs


Jens, Stuey, Fabian, and Tommy V form the winning break. At the 1K kite Jens detonates Tommy V with an explosion of the quads, just as Fabian goes off the front. Stuey maintains pace as Tomy and Jens form an unholy alliance to bring the three of them back onto Spartacus' wheel at 500m. Everyone is blown off their bikes as they break the sound barrier at 250m.

Robbie McEwen, who's not even in the race, materializes out of the jet vapor coming from Cancellara's bike, crossing the line in front one last time. He hip checks Graham Watson into the barrier.



Or not.

JSR


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## JohnHenry (Aug 9, 2006)

JSR said:


> Jens, Stuey, Fabian, and Tommy V form the winning break. At the 1K kite Jens detonates Tommy V with an explosion of the quads, just as Fabian goes off the front. Stuey maintains pace as Tomy and Jens form an unholy alliance to bring the three of them back onto Spartacus' wheel at 500m. Everyone is blown off their bikes as they break the sound barrier at 250m.
> 
> Robbie McEwen, who's not even in the race, materializes out of the jet vapor coming from Cancellara's bike, crossing the line in front one last time. He hip checks Graham Watson into the barrier.
> 
> ...


You forgot to mention McEwen will be riding a wheelie across the line.


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## 32and3cross (Feb 28, 2005)

Gilbert will win the "horse" race tommrow dispite what any "nay" sayers say.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

JSR said:


> Robbie McEwen, who's not even in the race, materializes out of the jet vapor coming from Cancellara's bike, crossing the line in front one last time. He hip checks Graham Watson into the barrier.


it would be great to hear paul and phil shout "THE SCARLET PIMPERNEL!"


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

What an opening stage! Good pick by a few here as well.

The way they were talking, I thought Contador had got caught in the crash while A. Schleck had not, but now I see it was really just Evans (at first glance when they popped up the results) that picked up time. I don't think that time will be enough but it certainly might put Evans in yellow for part of the Tour.


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## RkFast (Dec 11, 2004)

thechriswebb said:


> Not a fair comparison at all. I love Jens, who rides hard without being a pretentious pr!ck and who doesn't wear a boo boo face and whine and blame/insult everyone around him when he loses.
> 
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nqd-Nxk4JoE&NR=1
> ...


WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER.

Fabian goes into yellow and the eye rolling, the arm waving and the whining every time another rider dares do something King Fabian doesnt agree with begins in earnest. 

Let him stay in pale blue.


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## F45 (Nov 25, 2010)

Vino had a weak attack, and Cancellara was chased down quickly. Great finish!


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## penn_rider (Jul 11, 2009)

what a turn of events....


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## cda 455 (Aug 9, 2010)

What a great last 20km!


When Gilbert got out of the saddle and just rode before his attack, it was just like his previous wins this year. Awesome!


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*no way*



F45 said:


> Vino had a weak attack, and Cancellara was chased down quickly. Great finish!


was Gilbert gonna lose that
was in total control and looking dead calm


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