# Lance's TT rides



## steelbikerider (Feb 7, 2005)

Reasons for decline relative to other riders? 

1. age?

2. change in position and not as aero?

3. less power? 

4. sandbagging?

5. more focus on climbing?

other? 

note - not posted in doping forum so PED's not part of this discussion


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## King Arthur (Nov 13, 2009)

*LA and time trial*

Another consideration is the time trial bikes themselves. There have been changes mandated by the UCI, which also make them (rider and machine). I also think LA is experiencing a decline in aerobic capacity (occurs naturally as we age).


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

I'd venture to say a combination of Age, Position and Focus on Climbing....with position being the least impact of the three, and a focus on climbing being the largest impact given that there is only one ITT at the TDF this year.


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## bikerjulio (Jan 19, 2010)

back in the day when I was running running marathons a certain Carlos Lopes won the Olympic marathon at age 37 and maybe plus. It's not age yet for Lance.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Lopes


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## spiffomatic (Jan 28, 2010)

This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.

You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.


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## lemonlime (Sep 24, 2003)

spiffomatic said:



> This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.
> 
> You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.


 
I don't know that I agree with you, but I wouldn't be surprised if you are right.


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## rubbersoul (Mar 1, 2010)

spiffomatic said:


> This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.
> 
> You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.


I agree wholeheartedly. To quote Pantani' "I also have a Ferrari, but mine is parked in my garage."
________
DEPAKOTE LAWYER


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## bikerjulio (Jan 19, 2010)

good point. (comment deleted). It was thought pretty strange at the time (the Lopes thing). Sadly I remember when I didn't used to be this cynical.


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## Opus51569 (Jul 21, 2009)

I hate to say it, because I really do like LA, but I think it's a combination of 1, 3 and one "other" (the TT course itself). I would like to think he was sandbagging or saving himself for something incredible in July, but I think time is just starting to catch up to him, slowing him down that little bit more while many of those around him are peaking. As for the course, though, it wouldn't be the first time he chose not to take risks on a relatively wet TT course, particularly one like this with multiple twists toward the end.


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## tommyrhodes (Aug 19, 2009)

I like lance and I'd love to see him win in july. But I agree, this discussion cannot be had without the 800 pound gorilla.


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## penn_rider (Jul 11, 2009)

Yes, maybe to the other option. But also age, the time off, his hectic schedule due to his rise in celebrity status. His focus could not be as strong and he seems to be pulled in many directions other than to his bike. It happens to a lot of elite athletes that become a celebrity...


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## OldEndicottHiway (Jul 16, 2007)

Who cares?

Spiff's closing comment aside, he's an "old" dude still fit enough to race the freaking TdF and be competitive.

I'll enjoy my couch once again this July.


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## gamara (May 20, 2002)

spiffomatic said:


> This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.
> 
> You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.


Next time please READ the OP (non PED's) first before answering. For an old guy that's not as strong, he didn't do too badly placing 2nd overall in GC. And these will be some of the same guys that he will be racing against in July. Of course you factor in Basso, Nibali, Evans, Menchov, maybe Sastre & of course AC & things look pretty interesting.

The reason for LA's erratic tt is due to a couple of things. Its no secret that LA has long suffered with back problems so as one gets older & less flexible has led to him work on his tt position. 

The other reason has been written about in numerous articles. The drop in explosive power that comes with age. Unfortunately age at some point will affect all athletes & comes a time to bow out gracefully. I love Michael Jordan but it was hard to watch his comeback. As for LA, I think its too soon for any conjecture just yet. Lets wait till after July.


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## InfiniteLoop (Mar 20, 2010)

He's almost 40 years old, took several years off, just went from 7th to 2nd in TdS based on his ITT ride. And we're talking decline... 

800lb gorilla? If not currently and this is how he's performing?

My guess is a bit of age, a bit of sandbagging (certainly wouldn't be the first time for him), a good chunk of not wanting to break his collarbone on a wet corner, and a touch of no focus due to only 1 ITT in TdF.


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## JimT (Jul 18, 2007)

I think it's a combo of almost everything said above but dang, Let's Hear it for the Old Dude!!!

I think he did great and I hope he can get a podium finish at the TDF


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

bikerjulio said:


> back in the day when I was running running marathons a certain Carlos Lopes won the Olympic marathon at age 37 and maybe plus. It's not age yet for Lance.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Lopes


Constantina Tomescu-Dita won the women's Olympic marathon in 2008 at age 38, becoming the oldest winner of an Olympic marathon in history.


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## Wookiebiker (Sep 5, 2005)

tommyrhodes said:


> I like lance and I'd love to see him win in July. But I agree, this discussion cannot be had without the 800 pound gorilla.


Only if you include that 800 pound gorilla for all the other contenders....so take the gorilla away because all his peers have it on their shoulders as well.

This is a discussion about why his results have declined compared to other top level contenders. He used to dominate both the climbs and ITT's, now he's barely in the top 10, or out of it in the ITT's compared to his peers.

Why? That's the discussion....:thumbsup:


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## spiffomatic (Jan 28, 2010)

InfiniteLoop said:


> just went from 7th to 2nd in TdS based on his ITT ride.


Actually, his time wasn't very impressive vs the field. Over a minute back in 11th and behind Levi and Kloden. A more important fact than his podium appearance.

Aside from that, my apologies for stirring the pot. The question seemed akin to watching a ford festiva race the indy 500 and then discussing whether it placed last due to tire selection, wheel toe-in or perhaps too little downforce.

That aside, I will agree that age, interests outside of cycling, and time away from the bike don't help his cause. Under the assumption that the sport has turned a corner of sorts, and being a fan of great cyclists and performances, LA was a hell of a racer before and remains so, when he's on top of his game.


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## 55x11 (Apr 24, 2006)

spiffomatic said:


> This is a hard one to really weigh in on based on the forum you've placed it in. Really sort of ignoring the 800lb gorilla issue that probably answers 95% of your question.
> 
> You could instead ask why Lance didn't find himself on the attack during the TdS in the mountains gapping his rivals to test his legs for the TdF. The reason is he's not as strong. And the reason he's not as strong isn't one of your 1-5 options.


it's pretty much covered by options 1. and 3.


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## jorgy (Oct 21, 2005)

spiffomatic said:


> Actually, his time wasn't very impressive vs the field. Over a minute back in 11th and behind Levi and Kloden. A more important fact than his podium appearance.


Levi & Kloden are both very good TTers.

And if you look at most of the names in the top 10, you see TT specialists: Cancellara, Martin, Zabriskie, Larsson. It's not as if Lance came in 11th against a bunch of pikers.


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## heathb (Nov 1, 2008)

I agree with most of the posters that age is a big factor. Lets wait until Contador is almost 40 and see him fly up the mountains like he is now.

When I turned 34 I felt that I have peaked physically. I'm on my way to 37 pretty soon and I've noticed a considerable drop off in my ability to sustain all out efforts for exteded periods of time and a drop off in my recovery. I can only guess what's coming when I'm in my 40's, but you gotta keep fighting.

Personally I'd to see Lance compete past 40 because too many pros disappear when they start losing their snap.


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## WAZCO (Sep 16, 2004)

steelbikerider said:


> R
> 
> 2. change in position and not as aero?
> 
> I understand you feel the difference when change positions but can you see the difference? When changes happen, it's not over an inch of transitions. With that said, I and most people would not really see the diference. I'm sure on paper he made adjustments but I haven't heard or seen any of those facts? Is this stated somewhere?


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## Gnarly 928 (Nov 19, 2005)

I think his age. Nobody beats The Calendar. He's a remarkable guy but the years count up...The most remarkable old guy will always get beat eventually and as he ages, he will get beat more often by remarkable young guys...

When he is into his 60s and 70s if he is still racing, he will be kicking a** on guys half his age, but at the apex of the sport...4-5 years beyond your peak starts to lose you a couple of % of your speed, and that takes you, more and more frequently, off the podium.

I hope he defies the clock for a few more years..I also hope he doesn't quit cycling competitively just because he gets old...Lots of old guys are racing with unbelievable intensity..so we old masters go a few kph slower than we once did...it's just as hard to win the races..and just as much fun (I would imagine, since I don't recall the last race I won...any more...) Now, back to my rocker in front of the fire..


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## zosocane (Aug 29, 2004)

First of all, the guy just finished 2nd overall in what Liggett called (interestingly, and I don't disagree) the 4th most important stage race on the calendar. Immediately before that, he finished 3rd overall in Luxembourg. Before that, he crashed out in ToC, and except for a fine 27th overall in a little one-day race called Tour of Flanders, he had a pretty unremarkable and even unproductive 2010 season. If Frank Schleck -- who hitherto was not a TT guy -- didn't have the best ITT of his career yesterday, Lance wins the Tour de Suisse, it's a hot news item, and nobody is really focusing on his ITT performance.

Anyway, at the 2005 Dauphine's 46-km ITT -- Lance's last ITT immediately before his last pre-comeback Tour -- he got top 3 and the ITT had a cat 3 climb in the first half, the rest downhill. Probably a harder course than yesterday's ride in Suisse because of it's length but not totally dissimilar in profile.

Results

1 Santiago Botero (Col) Phonak Hearing Systems 1.00.06.55 (46.915 km/h)
2 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 0.01
3 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 0.26
4 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.39
5 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 1.00

So there's no question he's lost some aerobic capacity over the last 5 years. 

But what about his weight? One thing I've noticed from recent photos is that Lance looks leaner (lighter?) now than he did at this point in 2005. I think strategically he's realized if he has any shot at the Tour he has to climb with Contador, the Schlecks, etc. He knows he can't lose the 3/4 minutes he lost last year in the Alps. There is only one long ITT this year at the TdF and that comes on the penultimate stage. Throw out the opening short prologue and the decisive stages are (i) Arenberg -- where he will have an advantage over the GC guys because of his cobbled Classics experience -- he is hoping for 30-second time gaps there and separation of the other GC guys and (ii) the stage in the Alps/Pyrenees, where he could be at the whim of lethal accelerations from Contador and A. Schleck. So i think he has focused on getting his body to handle the climbs, the accelerations, etc. to mitigate the time losses he experience in 2009. There's no question he is climbing more nimbly now than in 2009 -- see Suisse and Luxembourg (even in California he looked sharp on the few climbs he did). Has he gotten a few pounds lighter to climb better knowing he might sacrifice some power for the ITT? I don't know, but besides the obvious age factor (racing age 39 in 2010) I wonder if reduced weight is a factor in his ITT performance.


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## daidaidai (Dec 17, 2008)

I'm with Heathb, speaking from experience (48) every year after thirty five, those same hills I ride every day get a little steeper. Looking at the factors 2 & 3 are probably a product of 1, and to counter 1, you employ 4 & 5. (i.e. use smarts):thumbsup:


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## colombo357 (Jun 19, 2010)

I had a chance to speak to Lance a few hours ago. The conversation went like this:

Me: Hey Lance, why were you so slow in today's ITT? 
Lance: I ate about 3 lbs of chocolate 10 minutes before I left the starting house. I read the starting times wrong and didn't think I was going to start for another hour. 
Me: Oh, shirt. Are you going to with the TDF?
Lance: Yes.
Me: Thanks. 
Lance: No, thank YOU.


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## tidi (Jan 11, 2008)

well Andy Schlek didn't podium at TdS, so LA wouldn't be that far off the pace come July if at all. sure he's getting older but he out of anyone in the world wouldn't go into something like TdF thinking 2nd will do.
also i reckon the sandbagging thing is a very probable option. i tend to think he is keeping his cards very close to his chest this year.


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## tricycletalent (Apr 2, 2005)

Another non-performance-enhancing-drug-reason for Armstrong's results: not peaking form. I don't know if all of you realize that in order to peak form, you have to rest and quit training. If you take a break in mid-June, you lose the most valuable training time before the season's highlight. 

I recall back in 04 (time flies..) when Iban Mayo absolutely demolished Lance in the Mont Ventoux ITT. He was also pipped by Tyler "The Chimera" Hamilton, Sevilla and Mercado. Come July, Lance was once again the best. 

I am extremely impressed with Lance Armstrong. I would not have thought that he could return to form the way he did in 09, and he sort of sneaked into 2nd on the Tour de Suisse standings, which is an awesome result. I am more eagerly awaiting Tour de France than ever, and I am not cheering for Lance, but right now, I can't rule him out of another podium shot, despite his age. 

I can't judge his aerobic capacity by merits alone. You need a power meter for that, as cycling isn't track and field. Furthermore, a decline doesn't necessarily mean that it would be a decline given similar PED use, which likely isn't the case, the game is constantly changing.


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## slegros (Sep 22, 2009)

Just off the top of my head I don't ever recall LA being a dominant time trialer like Hinault or Indurain.. If I had to compare his time trialing to his climbing Id say he's a better climber than time trialer. I certainly think more of his TDF victories were won in the mountains on the strength of his climbing, than in the time trials.... Still early for peak form. Id say he's on course for July.... I for one was impressed by his TDS ride...


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## heathb (Nov 1, 2008)

fornaca68 said:


> So there's no question he's lost some aerobic capacity over the last 5 years.
> 
> But what about his weight? One thing I've noticed from recent photos is that Lance looks leaner (lighter?) now than he did at this point in 2005.


For me Lance looks like he's carrying more muscle then he did in 2005, especially upper body. 

That said it's more important that Lance keep going for the cancer community regardless of his results. It would be interesting seeing him break the age barrier for the grand tours, if I'm not mistaken that would be 41 for completing the TDF.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Not bad for 38. Nice TT by Levi. 

Again, Tony Martin was impressive. One of my new favorites to watch!

:thumbsup:


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## JSR (Feb 27, 2006)

Coolhand said:


> Again, Tony Martin was impressive. One of my new favorites to watch!
> 
> :thumbsup:


Agreed! There is a very impressive crop of youngsters emerging, with Martin, TeeJay VG, Jani Brajkovic, Boss Hoag, et al. Plus Minney Phinney, of course.

JSR


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## medimond (Apr 26, 2009)

My impression of Lance is that he plays so much tactical that evaluating his performance may not be a true indication of his fitness level. If his real intent is to do well in the TDF, why take on additional risks in the TDS? IMO the TDS was just a good training for the TDF.


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## Opus51569 (Jul 21, 2009)

medimond said:


> My impression of Lance is that he plays so much tactical that evaluating his performance may not be a true indication of his fitness level. If his real intent is to do well in the TDF, why take on additional risks in the TDS? IMO the TDS was just a good training for the TDF.


A fair point and why I included the course itself as an "other" choice. LA has made no secret that his season is geared toward the TdF. I don't think that means he just phones it in on his other races. On a wet and twisty TT course, though, I can see why he would ease off the gas a bit rather than go for broke and possibly win the TdS, but risk crashing out and miss the TdF. I think if the course was dry and some of those final turns a bit wider, and he still wasn't able to overtake Schleck, then 1 and 3 would be the biggest factors. JMHO


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

fornaca68 said:


> So there's no question he's lost some aerobic capacity over the last 5 years.
> 
> But what about his weight? One thing I've noticed from recent photos is that Lance looks leaner (lighter?) now than he did at this point in 2005. I think strategically he's realized if he has any shot at the Tour he has to climb with Contador, the Schlecks, etc. He knows he can't lose the 3/4 minutes he lost last year in the Alps. There is only one long ITT this year at the TdF and that comes on the penultimate stage. Throw out the opening short prologue and the decisive stages are (i) Arenberg -- where he will have an advantage over the GC guys because of his cobbled Classics experience -- he is hoping for 30-second time gaps there and separation of the other GC guys and (ii) the stage in the Alps/Pyrenees, where he could be at the whim of lethal accelerations from Contador and A. Schleck. So i think he has focused on getting his body to handle the climbs, the accelerations, etc. to mitigate the time losses he experience in 2009. There's no question he is climbing more nimbly now than in 2009 -- see Suisse and Luxembourg (even in California he looked sharp on the few climbs he did). Has he gotten a few pounds lighter to climb better knowing he might sacrifice some power for the ITT? I don't know, but besides the obvious age factor (racing age 39 in 2010) I wonder if reduced weight is a factor in his ITT performance.


The usual trade off is TT power when a rider improves his climbing (often by losing weight - including muscle). So I think that you are correct in your assessment.


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## gh1 (Jun 7, 2008)

bikerjulio said:


> back in the day when I was running running marathons a certain Carlos Lopes won the Olympic marathon at age 37 and maybe plus. It's not age yet for Lance.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Lopes


I am not sure this is a valid argument. Did Lopes get up and run a marathon again the next day? No. What I have noticed with the years increasing is that my ability to recover is declining. In the TDF, you have to get up tomorrow and do it again. Thats going to be a problem for any guy his age in a 3 week race. Some guys do it but they have days that they just dial it in, you cant do that if you are shooting for a podium spot and you are in the Pyrenees.


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

JSR said:


> Agreed! There is a very impressive crop of youngsters emerging, with Martin, TeeJay VG, Jani Brajkovic, Boss Hoag, et al. Plus Minney Phinney, of course.
> 
> JSR


Indeed- some great talent to enjoy watching over the next 10 years.


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## steelbikerider (Feb 7, 2005)

Thanks for reasonable responses. after looking back, his performance isn't that much different from previous year's pre-tour warm-ups except that he usually targeted 1 or 2 days to push himself and announced it beforehand. Flanders might have been that day this year. His day in the Alps looked pretty good, close to the front, closing gaps, etc.I don't think his pedal stroke has the same "souplesse" that it used to, he looks to sit a little higher on his bike and his cadence seemed a little slower. He did beat the GT contenders and if you double the times to reflect a TDF time trial, the gaps are more in line with his usual results except for Schleck. 
I also think TT results at the end of a GT are a little skewed compared to TT's as a stand alone event or the shorter TT's of the shorter stage races. 
I'm not naive about the other issues concerning PED's but it just a part of any pro sports today and sometimes you have to move on. 
I figure Contador is the favorite but I put LA even with Evans, the Schlecks, and ahead of all others. The wild card will be the performance of the Astana team. Could be a very interesting tour.


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## velomoto (Oct 6, 2005)

can't wait....


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