# Stage 11 speculation



## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

Did anyone else read Graham Watson's comments on paceline.com? He made the comment that Basso's climbing may suffer because of his focus on the TT discipline. If so then Savoldelli only has to worry about the Lampre guys. Lampre may turn Simoni loose, but will Cunego not allow that? and chase him dragging Savoldelli with him?


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

dagger said:


> Did anyone else read Graham Watson's comments on paceline.com? He made the comment that Basso's climbing may suffer because of his focus on the TT discipline. If so then Savoldelli only has to worry about the Lampre guys. Lampre may turn Simoni loose, but will Cunego not allow that? and chase him dragging Savoldelli with him?


The big thing will be when the Lampre guys attack (and they will) who will be able to follow the wheel and who will be left behind? If Basso, Savoldelli, DiLuca and other contenders are not able to follow, they will try and chase together, and do a good job minimizing their losses. If Savoldelli is left behind all the other contenders, he will be forced to chase by himself, and lose much more time in the process. Don't expect the Lampre boys to chase each other down. Their rivalry has mostly been heated up by the media, and I don't think either will ruin the other's chances.

I've always been amused by the idea of team tactics on a mountain top finish. It more or less comes down to who has the power and who has been able to conserve energy really well the rest of the day. If Savoldelli is out of teammates on the 15k valley into the final climb on a stage, then he may be in trouble. Same goes if he somehow gets the lead, and needs to bring back attackers like Cunego, Simoni, Basso on the second to last climb.

Silas


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*well Lampre is going to be responsible for pace setting*

as challengers all most have to do is sit on and let them do the work. this is where a non favorite's team becomes less needed. You only need the team if you are defending a lead.
Paolo will just have to hang on as long as possible and make time up on the descents. his strategy as will be Basso's is to limit losses that can be made up for in the TT's. 
Unless lampe can put some serious time into these guys they'll be okay. Simoni and Cunego will exchange attacks and try to crack the rest. Garzelli and Di Luca will work together as much as possible and hope Cioni is in the mix as well. They lack the TTing that Basso and Savoldelli can use as backup. unless of course there are no more TT's this Giro.


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## B2 (Mar 12, 2002)

*Clear advantage for Paolo & Basso in the ITT*



atpjunkie said:


> Paolo will just have to hang on as long as possible and make time up on the descents. his strategy as will be Basso's is to limit losses that can be made up for in the TT's.
> Unless lampe can put some serious time into these guys they'll be okay.


 Agreed - I think both of these guys will be willing to take some time losses in the mountains. It could be risky, but a calculated gamble none the less.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*it was funny when people were calling them dead with a 40 second*

gap which they flipped in one TT


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## The Human G-Nome (Aug 26, 2002)

*Agreed. People don't know what the hell they're talking about.*



 atpjunkie said:


> gap which they flipped in one TT



So far, Basso had one, less then spectacular climb on one stage. It's not a comment on his current climbing fitness I don't think. We'll find out over the next couple days whether that's really the case. To speculate that Basso's concentration on the TT will necessarily hinder his climbing ability is just that, pure speculation. Personally, i'm not going to bet against Basso right now. Sometimes it takes riders a day or two to come into form on the climbs, but he will almost certainly come into form IMO.


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## merckxman (Jan 23, 2002)

*Keep an eye on Scarponi*

he is poised for a breakthrough Giro.....


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## QUiTSPiNiNArOuND (Mar 15, 2002)

I see CSC definetely setting pace on the climbs. Then I see cunego or simoni attack, and for sure, they will chase each other down, i think they did it already in one of the climbs earlier. i dont know cunegos form to simoni, just cunego looks stronger in the TT's and sprints, and i would expect, maybe hes lost an edge to Simoni on the altos. I agree that Scarponi will do well. I see Paolo holding on to the Lampre boys until the last kilometer. I have a question mark on Basso though, i want to see if hes climbing well. Basso looked good everywhere except that cat 1 climb, and i think he had a bike change there. Unfortunately i dont think Honchar will be a factor.


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

Maybe Euskatel will do something besides crash for once. Maybe climbing will be their saving grace for the Giro.


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## lallo (Feb 20, 2005)

Don't forget RUJANO. The best climber in this giro!!!


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## torquecal (Nov 9, 2002)

Personally I don't put much weight on G. Watson's comments on tactics or predictions. From reading his articles in Cycle Sport America he just seems off into left field on a lot of performance issues. While I love his photography, I think he should leave analysis to experts...

pending stage 11 - I'm thinking Rasmussen is going to try and salvage a Giro performance with a long break to a stage win


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## magnolialover (Jun 2, 2004)

*The stage...*

It should be an interesting stage 11 no matter what happens. But one thing that is sure NOT to happen is that Simoni and or Cunego will NOT chase each other down. They haven't done it yet, and they won't do it now. I believe we'll see an earlier than expected attack from Simoni, and then Cunego can sit back, and follow and cover whoever tries to go with Simoni. They won't chase each other down as people keep asserting, it just won't happen. It's not good team tactics, and it's just bad form. They're both classy riders, and I don't think they'll do this. It should be a good stage to see develop today though.


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

lallo said:


> Don't forget RUJANO. The best climber in this giro!!!


Yeah, I'm interested in seeing how he goes today. He could still be an a big surprise outside threat for the podium providing he doesn't just go for the climber's jersey. He lost a lot of time in the TT but reportedly had to stop 3 times (!) on the descent for mechanicals, so he may not lose nearly as much time in the final TT.


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

I'll speculate that Gonchar loses a gob of time, and Garzelli and Cioni get dropped by the Cunego/Simoni group.

Forza Julio Perez.


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## Stumpjumper (Dec 24, 2004)

*and I'm pulling an all nighter*

Well I just got back from a wife indusded viewing of the 1st run of Starwars. At local time 1201 we watched, now at 3am I got no time to sleep until the Giro is over. Who says life in the islands is easy?

Cheers,
bill


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

Stumpjumper said:


> Well I just got back from a wife indusded viewing of the 1st run of Starwars. At local time 1201 we watched, now at 3am I got no time to sleep until the Giro is over. Who says life in the islands is easy?
> 
> Cheers,
> bill


Well? Was it any good or a disappointment like the last 2 (3 actually)?


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## Stumpjumper (Dec 24, 2004)

*the rum was the highlight*



Dwayne Barry said:


> Well? Was it any good or a disappointment like the last 2 (3 actually)?


Yea not much to look forward to sorry to say. I am not really into doing this but it fell on a giro day so I figured I could sleep during the movie.

bill


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*I guessed wrong*

Basso is mighty strong today on the climbing.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

*wow!*



dagger said:


> Basso is mighty strong today on the climbing.


Basso is certainly ending any speculation over his climbing abilities. Looks like the battlers for the podium will be Basso, Simoni, Savoldelli, and maybe DiLuca if he really suffers well this next week.

Silas


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*don't count Paolo out either.*

he's obviously showing good form. Hope he has enough support. He could possibly take today with that descent. Funny I was extolling how the "Tour" teams were going to make an impact and folks thought me daft.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Cunego*

looks as if his hopes may be done/ 4:15 plus the TT time loss.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

*Consolidation*

These three guys in the lead right now are really consolidating their position. The first mountain stage is usually a pretty good predictor of the final GC. Of course the big surprise is the favorites like Cunego, Garzelli and Cioni are all but finished.

Silas


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*2 Man race now.*

Savoldelli and Basso. What's interesting is that Savoldelli is on the maybe list for the TDF and these two may be fighting it out again in 6 weeks.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

*Atienza?*

Have you guys heard of Atienza before? The name wasn't even familiar to me. What kind of results has he had before this superb finish today?

Silas


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

*Cunego finishes 6:02 back*

Cunego finishes 6:02 back . Guess he will be riding for Simoni for sure.

It looks like it's all Basso now. Seeing how he TT'd better than anyone else in the Top 5 and he has the lead.

I am most surprised by the ride of Savoldelli and Di Luca though. On that second to last climb I didn't think Savoldelli had it (and Di Luca just wouldn't give up.)


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*c'mon folks*

where are the pure climbers? Basso and Savoldelli under Riis and Johann tutelage passing out thumpings and they are the TT guys. oops, guess not. Sorry just reveling in my predictions that Disco and CSC would show up en force.


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## magnolialover (Jun 2, 2004)

*Seriously??*



dagger said:


> Savoldelli and Basso. What's interesting is that Savoldelli is on the maybe list for the TDF and these two may be fighting it out again in 6 weeks.


Nah, there is still a lot of time, and still a lot of hills between the end of this stage and Milan my friends. Basso and Savo looked good today though. Anything can happen, and people can crack spectacularly in the mountains. One good day for these 2 guys and you guys are already calling the race?? I think you had better stay tuned. It's not like it's over tomorrow. There are still 10 stages left, and this was the first day in some of the high mountains. They haven't even hit the really tough stuff yet. So there is a good chance it's still going to get very interesting. Cunego 6 minutes down though, so now, it's all about Simoni on Lampre for certain.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Einstruzende said:


> Cunego finishes 6:02 back . Guess he will be riding for Simoni for sure.
> 
> It looks like it's all Basso now. Seeing how he TT'd better than anyone else in the Top 5 and he has the lead.
> 
> I am most surprised by the ride of Savoldelli and Di Luca though. On that second to last climb I didn't think Savoldelli had it (and Di Luca just wouldn't give up.)



What in the world happened???

Cunego is a lot better than that!! Oh well, stick a fork in him. He'll quit tomorrow.

What in the world??? This Giro just went from great to not-so-great with the instant annihilation of cunego, cioni and garzelli. I want some video!

francois


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*it's just that we've officially entered the Dolomites*

and the guys who were supposed to be 'limiting their losses' to the likes of Cunego and Simoni were passing out lumps. Di Luca suprised me, I thought he'd lose more time today.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

atpjunkie said:


> where are the pure climbers? Basso and Savoldelli under Riis and Johann tutelage passing out thumpings and they are the TT guys. oops, guess not. Sorry just reveling in my predictions that Disco and CSC would show up en force.


ATP, don't get too ahead of yourself. You said disco and CSC would play some great tactical card to split up the peloton ala paris-nice last year or the vuelta. That didn't really happen, as Lampre attacked, and then Basso attacked, splitting up the group. It was not a great team tactic by any stretch of the imagination.

That being said, the pure climbers may yet arrive when we hit some of the steeper climbs like the stelvio and others around 9-10%. The steepest today were in the 7-8 range.

Silas


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

magnolialover said:


> Nah, there is still a lot of time, and still a lot of hills between the end of this stage and Milan my friends. Basso and Savo looked good today though. Anything can happen, and people can crack spectacularly in the mountains. One good day for these 2 guys and you guys are already calling the race?? I think you had better stay tuned. It's not like it's over tomorrow. There are still 10 stages left, and this was the first day in some of the high mountains. They haven't even hit the really tough stuff yet. So there is a good chance it's still going to get very interesting. Cunego 6 minutes down though, so now, it's all about Simoni on Lampre for certain.


I agree, but who will beat Basso and Savoldelli now? Unless they have a bad day they will both gain time on the rest in the TT, and they're already in the lead and they've proved they climb with the best. Of course it's not over, but I would need some amazing odds to bet on anyone else.

Silas


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*What role was Joachim playing?*

Was he burned up and for what gain?


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## Einstruzende (Jun 1, 2004)

SilasCL said:


> ATP, don't get too ahead of yourself. You said disco and CSC would play some great tactical card to split up the peloton ala paris-nice last year or the vuelta. That didn't really happen, as Lampre attacked, and then Basso attacked, splitting up the group. It was not a great team tactic by any stretch of the imagination.
> 
> That being said, the pure climbers may yet arrive when we hit some of the steeper climbs like the stelvio and others around 9-10%. The steepest today were in the 7-8 range.
> 
> Silas


Remember at the TdF last year on the first real mountain stage both Hamilton and Ullrich fell apart. From that point on you just knew Armstrong was going to win.

I get the same feeling about this Stage. Basso is going to end up being too strong for everyone. Savoldelli will be last year's TdF Basso. Just able to hang on, then losing more time in the TT.


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## Scot_Gore (Jan 25, 2002)

dagger said:


> Was he burned up and for what gain?


Sent on the attack in an attempt to compel Lampre to chase. It worked. They did chase, it (perhaps) burnt the legs of their climbers allowing their man to get a few seconds on Simoni and minutes on Cunego.


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

Einstruzende said:


> Remember at the TdF last year on the first real mountain stage both Hamilton and Ullrich fell apart. From that point on you just knew Armstrong was going to win.
> 
> I get the same feeling about this Stage. Basso is going to end up being too strong for everyone. Savoldelli will be last year's TdF Basso. Just able to hang on, then losing more time in the TT.



That is the irony of a grand tour. Thousands of miles on the saddle with endless drama and speculation.

Often, it really comes down to a pivotal 5 mile climb. Last year, Cunego left Simoni on a climb and the Giro was decided.

It looks like this year's Giro is decided as well barring something wild. Obviously, I like the racing so I hope for something wild... changes in the lead jersey. What often happens though is the top dog just adds minutes to the lead from here on.

I just read the cycling news report and the performance by Basso and Salvodelli is staggering! It seemed like Salvodelli was in front the whole time. It also seemed like Basso accelerated.... what about 10 times... to decimate the field.

Great show!!

For my favorite Cunego... I want to know more insight on what happened.... I would suggest abandon now, reggroup and join the Tour day France. This race IS lost.

francois


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## Francis Cebedo (Aug 1, 2001)

SilasCL said:


> I agree, but who will beat Basso and Savoldelli now? Unless they have a bad day they will both gain time on the rest in the TT, and they're already in the lead and they've proved they climb with the best. Of course it's not over, but I would need some amazing odds to bet on anyone else.
> 
> Silas


Exactly!! It's not over obviously but who's going to take my $100 and bet on anyone else but Basso and Salvodelli.

fc


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*besides the team tactics*

I predicted that overall pace of the race would increase and that the tour teams (CSC and Dsico) would up the overall level. They have. All the top contenders from Giro Centric Teams are now in survival mode. They are getting their backsides handed to them by the 'newbies' (I know CSC raced this before and almost won, but this is the first time they've shown up and said we have intentions of winning). Garzelli, Cioni, Cunego, shelled.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

atpjunkie said:


> I predicted that overall pace of the race would increase and that the tour teams (CSC and Dsico) would up the overall level. They have. All the top contenders from Giro Centric Teams are now in survival mode. They are getting their backsides handed to them by the 'newbies' (I know CSC raced this before and almost won, but this is the first time they've shown up and said we have intentions of winning). Garzelli, Cioni, Cunego, shelled.


ATP, you also predicted that Liquigas would do well. Dare I say, make enough predictions and you'll always be right?

Silas


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> and the guys who were supposed to be 'limiting their losses' to the likes of Cunego and Simoni were passing out lumps. Di Luca suprised me, I thought he'd lose more time today.


I think it's far too early to think anyone is going to dominate, just one (2 if you count the TT) day in the books. Maybe if Basso and Savodelli are the best again tomorrow it will start to look like a 2-man race but hopefully that won't happen and it will be a good back and forth battle up until the end.

I wonder what Di Luca could have done if had been riding as a GC hopeful this whole time?


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## Dwayne Barry (Feb 16, 2003)

SilasCL said:


> Have you guys heard of Atienza before? The name wasn't even familiar to me. What kind of results has he had before this superb finish today?
> 
> Silas


He's been around, he rode pretty good at Romandie prior to the Giro. I think the surprise (positive) ride of the day has to be the Belgian Van Huffel?


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## dagger (Jul 22, 2004)

*I only caught the last 45 minutes*



Scot_Gore said:


> Sent on the attack in an attempt to compel Lampre to chase. It worked. They did chase, it (perhaps) burnt the legs of their climbers allowing their man to get a few seconds on Simoni and minutes on Cunego.



So I didn't get to see a chase.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*a smart ploy*

considering their diminished squad. too bad he's such a hack of a DS


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## magnolialover (Jun 2, 2004)

*Good stuff...*



atpjunkie said:


> considering their diminished squad. too bad he's such a hack of a DS


If you guys remember the race from last year you would have seen 5 or 6 Saeco riders drilling it on the climbs. It was a red train going through the mountains. Today, they had to chase, and it left them only Simoni and Cunego. Good tactics indeed.


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## magnolialover (Jun 2, 2004)

*Doesn't happen often...*



magnolialover said:


> Nah, there is still a lot of time, and still a lot of hills between the end of this stage and Milan my friends. Basso and Savo looked good today though. Anything can happen, and people can crack spectacularly in the mountains. One good day for these 2 guys and you guys are already calling the race?? I think you had better stay tuned. It's not like it's over tomorrow. There are still 10 stages left, and this was the first day in some of the high mountains. They haven't even hit the really tough stuff yet. So there is a good chance it's still going to get very interesting. Cunego 6 minutes down though, so now, it's all about Simoni on Lampre for certain.


This doesn't happen often, but I do love it when I'm right. A lot of you guys were calling it a 2 man race when PS and Basso rode away on the first mountain stage. A few days later, things have changed greatly. Basso - OUT! PS, still hanging tough like the New Kids, Simoni coming on strong, DiLuca riding his arse off. So right now kids, it's an entirely new Giro once again. PS still has the Maglia Rosa, but for how long?? If he keeps getting isolated in the high mountains, Lampre is going to give him the old 1-2, that being Simoni and Cunego. They can let Cunego attack the crap out of him once they have him alone, and if he doesn't respond, then it's possible for Cunego to make time, or even just let Simoni attack him, and PS will HAVE to chase, unless he wants to lose. Good racing. 2 man race?? Ha!


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## nwilkes (Jun 21, 2004)

magnolialover said:


> This doesn't happen often, but I do love it when I'm right. A lot of you guys were calling it a 2 man race when PS and Basso rode away on the first mountain stage. A few days later, things have changed greatly. Basso - OUT! PS, still hanging tough like the New Kids, Simoni coming on strong, DiLuca riding his arse off. So right now kids, it's an entirely new Giro once again. PS still has the Maglia Rosa, but for how long?? If he keeps getting isolated in the high mountains, Lampre is going to give him the old 1-2, that being Simoni and Cunego. They can let Cunego attack the crap out of him once they have him alone, and if he doesn't respond, then it's possible for Cunego to make time, or even just let Simoni attack him, and PS will HAVE to chase, unless he wants to lose. Good racing. 2 man race?? Ha!


Excellent racing thus far, I agree with you. di luca is impressing the hell out of me. he looks ot be suffering like a whipped dog, but is pulling great rides out of his butt on a daily basis.

*BUT*, why should PS care if Cunego attacks?

DC is down 8:00 on Il Falco, so let him ride and keep him more or less in sight. PS would do better for himself to mark Simoni and Di Luca and let that young mullethead Cunego distract himself with a stage win or two. The odds of Cunego pulling a Lance are small, but still exist.

Rujano has made huge time jumps in the last couple days though. How dangerous could this guy be?


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