# What do you do if you are Contador?



## Len J (Jan 28, 2004)

So let's pretend for a minute.

You are Contador in the 2011 TDF.........when do you expend your effort?

Do you steal a few seconds here and there between now and the last week, or do you wait for a mountain finish like stage 14 to try to get the time back.

You weren't expecting to be almost 1:30 down 4 stages in, but here you are......so how do you plan on winning the tour?

if it's me, I've got to get 10 to 15 seconds or more pn stage 8, and 30+ seconds on stage 12 Luz Ardiden, and then 30+ seconds on the Plata de Belle on stage 14.........If I can do that, then I can win or lose the tour on Stage 18 on Col de Galiber. If i'm still down over a minute coming into Galiber, then I have one chance.....



Len


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## F45 (Nov 25, 2010)

Wait for a mountain stage and win it back there, as well as the time trial.


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## biobanker (Jun 11, 2009)

Have another steak. There's a precedent for Spain turning the other way!


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## cdhbrad (Feb 18, 2003)

I think he had better get all he can in the mountains. Some of the other GC contenders, like Evans and Leipheimer, are very good in the individual TT too. Even so, the Grenoble ITT should be a very interesting stage to watch.


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## mohair_chair (Oct 3, 2002)

If I am Contador, I pray that the CAS will decide in my favor. Otherwise, none of this matters, because all my results for this year will be wiped away.


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## mimason (Oct 7, 2006)

If I were him I'd eat some more Spanish beef.


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## Dan Gerous (Mar 28, 2005)

Looks like he intends to try to get time anywhere he can... Then take bigger chunks in the mountains against the stronger TTers like Cadel and Wiggins (and everybody else) and in the TT against weak TTers like Andy and Basso... Definitly doable.


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## Urb (Jul 19, 2010)

Be a man and denounce my tour victory from last year then get back on the saddle to help my team in any way I could in the current tour.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

> Looks like he intends to try to get time anywhere he can... Then take bigger chunks in the mountains against the stronger TTers like Cadel and Wiggins (and everybody else) and in the TT against weak TTers like Andy and Basso... Definitly doable.


+1, I agree that it's doable for Contador. If he get the gap down to a minute with Schleck for the TT and figuring Evans blows up on at least one day in the mountains, it's very possible. I don't think the rest of the field will be a big problem once the mountain top finishes come around.


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## Frith (Oct 3, 2002)

*To the beef advocates.*

Do you really think you're funny? I'm no fan of Contador but that joke is just so lame and it seems to be repeated in every thread that mentions him. Ignoring the fact that it's trolling to get the thread to devolve into doping chatter and get it sent to the naughty corner it just isn't funny. It's obvious and uncreative. If you're going to make joke use a bit of creativity otherwise lets stick to talking about cycling.

Edit: I may as well weigh in on the actual topic of the thread so as not to spend all my time feeding the trolls. I think the gap is just enough to make this tour very interesting. Contador needs to attack at every opportunity gaining 10 - 20 seconds where ever possible and then hope to make up the rest in the TT. It's unfortunate for him if he ends up losing due to a crash but it sure does set up the rest of the tour for some exciting battles.


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## Lou3000 (Aug 25, 2010)

Contador has to attack in the mountains, maybe on more than one stage, and then kill it in the TT. However, when you are that far behind, it is going to take some luck and poor form from his rivals to be able to take it.

He has a better shot if Cadel blows up because he can easily put time into A Schleck on the TT.


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

he needs to chip away here and there, and then have one explosive mountain stage. but the chipping away is prime now, so the team doesnt destruct.
him trying for the stage today worried me. almost like he is stage hunting. if there were time bonuses that would be a different story.

evans has not gone through a grand tour without having a bad day, and right now he is the main opponent. why not andy? andy has no bite, and lack itt punch. basso is in about the same spot as conti.


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## dougydee (Feb 15, 2005)

Conti needs to make up time over a couple of mountain stages. It might be hard for him to make bike gains in the ITT as he will ride before the other GC contenders who will have all of his time checks and if good enough will be able to limit any loses against the clock.


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## ocean-ro (Nov 23, 2009)

mimason said:


> If I were him I'd eat some more Spanish beef.


Texas had some good steak too,for like 7 years


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## adjtogo (Nov 18, 2006)

If I were Contador, I'd do what he's already been caught doing, blood doping. Personally, I'm not a Canotador fan. He's not a team player. He's egotystical and it's about time he's put in his place. Let's go Schleck's!!


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## spookyload (Jan 30, 2004)

If I am Contador, I see no option besides chipping away like he did at the Giro. Unfortunately for him, all of the big boys are here at the TDF and don't have the Giro in their legs already. Really unfortunate for him is his team is **** for supporting him in the mountains allowing for an epic win. They are great if you need a bottle of water or need help getting back from a mechanical, but how often do you see AC with two or three team mates at the front helping him make a final selection on a long climb? He is relying on a lot of good luck leaching from other teams there. One flat and Tour is over for AC without team mates on the climbs.


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## Henry Porter (Jul 25, 2006)

Dan Gerous said:


> Looks like he intends to try to get time anywhere he can... Then take bigger chunks in the mountains against the stronger TTers like Cadel and Wiggins (and everybody else) and in the TT against weak TTers like Andy and Basso... Definitly doable.


I agree with Dan.


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## slonoma98 (Jun 22, 2005)

Frith said:


> Do you really think you're funny? I'm no fan of Contador but that joke is just so lame and it seems to be repeated in every thread that mentions him. Ignoring the fact that it's trolling to get the thread to devolve into doping chatter and get it sent to the naughty corner it just isn't funny. It's obvious and uncreative. If you're going to make joke use a bit of creativity otherwise lets stick to talking about cycling.
> .


Well said


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## KenS (Jan 28, 2004)

While I agree with the chipping-away strategy (as in he can't do it on one stage) there is a problem with this approach. Today Contador looked to be riding very hard at the end (judging from his facial expressions). He got time on Andy but not on Evans. There are many riders that are 90+ seconds ahead of Contador and many of them are good on the ITT. He can't fight them all on every stage. 

Andy loses 30 sec on a stage while Contador goes after Evans. The next day Andy is testing Contador while Evans recovers. The next day Evans is testing Contador while Andy recovers. That looks like a recipe for a bad day at some point for Contador. He can't afford to lose another minute or two to any of the other GC riders like Evans.

Contador is in a very tough spot and there is no obvious path to yellow.

On the other hand, from the standpoint of a fan, this looks to be a suspenseful TdF.

And a chapeau to Thor for fighting to keep the yellow jersey.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

KenS said:


> While I agree with the chipping-away strategy (as in he can't do it on one stage) there is a problem with this approach. Today Contador looked to be riding very hard at the end (judging from his facial expressions). He got time on Andy but not on Evans. There are many riders that are 90+ seconds ahead of Contador and many of them are good on the ITT. He can't fight them all on every stage.
> 
> Andy loses 30 sec on a stage while Contador goes after Evans. The next day Andy is testing Contador while Evans recovers. The next day Evans is testing Contador while Andy recovers. That looks like a recipe for a bad day at some point for Contador. He can't afford to lose another minute or two to any of the other GC riders like Evans.
> 
> ...


Sure he can fight them all on the mountain stages. It's not like the other guys will be resting on Alpe D'Huez if he goes on the attack.

This is why I don't buy into the whole thing about burning too many matches. Aren't his rivals doing similar efforts to try and stick with him? Barring Contador trying to go on solo breakaways on flat stages, it's likely that any hard effort he puts in to try and gain back time will be matched by a similar hard effort from his rivals.


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## AdamM (Jul 9, 2008)

> They are great if you need a bottle of water or need help getting back from a mechanical, but how often do you see AC with two or three team mates at the front helping him make a final selection on a long climb? He is relying on a lot of good luck leaching from other teams there


??? - Navarro rode tempo almost to the finish of every significant climb last year in the process usually dropping half the riders folks consider top contenders this year.


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## penn_rider (Jul 11, 2009)

Not sure if chipping away will work as it would expend a great amount of needed energy. He needs to exploit any mistake in the mountains and go big once or twice. I am not a fan of his, so I would rather see him cook his legs than be successful...


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

Len J said:


> So let's pretend for a minute.
> 
> You are Contador in the 2011 TDF.........when do you expend your effort?
> 
> ...


I think your formula for success may be a bit optimistic for Contador. We'll know on stage 12 if he's capable of a comeback. If he's already made a slight cut into his rivals on stages 8 and 9 and is then able to get 30 seconds on Luz Ardiden, he'll be the favorite even if he's still behind. If he's not made up any time on those bumpy stages, and gets 15 seconds or less on Luz Ardiden, we'll be looking at a very exciting tour that's likely to come down to the final TT.

I'm hoping for the latter, and it's what I would bet on too. Evans looks really good so far.


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## yurl (Mar 31, 2010)

I think its obvious he's going for the chipping away strategy. if anyone can pull it off it'll be AC but I don't think he'll have it in him after a hard Giro. he'll run out of juice third week. That said I hope he continues this strategy cos its making this TdF awesome to watch.


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## Sylint (Jul 27, 2009)

spookyload said:


> If I am Contador, I see no option besides chipping away like he did at the Giro. Unfortunately for him, all of the big boys are here at the TDF and don't have the Giro in their legs already. Really unfortunate for him is his team is **** for supporting him in the mountains allowing for an epic win. They are great if you need a bottle of water or need help getting back from a mechanical, but how often do you see AC with two or three team mates at the front helping him make a final selection on a long climb? He is relying on a lot of good luck leaching from other teams there. One flat and Tour is over for AC without team mates on the climbs.


 
Navarro is a beast. Chris Anker Sorensen is a pretty good climber as well.


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## teoteoteo (Sep 8, 2002)

A win is doable but it will be the toughest fight he's ever been in. He won't chip away and get ahead of any of these guys before the mountains and if he does maybe 2-3 drop off but not 12. It's a big list and even if the following guys can't last 3 weeks there is enough quantity and quality to overwhelm him in the early weeks. Factor in that chipping away with no real team help will take it's toll. Factor in he's coming off the giro and working BACK to form, not as fresh. Factor that today he had a look on his face I can't recall seeing in a long time if ever. Not once in recent history has there been a chance where so many riders and teams perceive they have a shot. He has to narrow that list on stage 12/13 and the other teams know that. Then there is that whole Stage 14 queen stage to contend with. Can't wait to see it play out.

Evans 
A Schleck 
Horner/Leipheimer/Kloden/Brajokvic 
Gesink 
Van Den Broeck 
Vino 
Basso 
Wiggins 
Cuengo 

I've also left off names that could be argued like Van Garderen, etc


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## weltyed (Feb 6, 2004)

teoteoteo said:


> A win is doable but it will be the toughest fight he's ever been in. He won't chip away and get ahead of any of these guys before the mountains and if he does maybe 2-3 drop off but not 12. It's a big list and even if the following guys can't last 3 weeks their is enough quantity and quality to overwhelm him in the early weeks. Factor in that chipping away with no real team help will take it's toll. Factor in he's coming off the giro and working BACK to form, not as fresh. Factor that today he had a look on his face I can't recall seeing in a long time if ever. Not once in recent history has there been a chance where so many riders and teams perceive they have a shot. Can't wait to see it play out.
> 
> Evans
> A Schleck
> ...


/\this/\
teo is always spot on.


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## Lazy Spinner (Aug 30, 2009)

He seems very desperate and lacking confidence in my opinion. Today's stage only gave him the opportunity to gain a few seconds and he had to burn a few matches to do it. Cadel beats him, he only gets eight seconds on Andy, and he barely beats Thor, a sprinter, to the line. WTF? 

If the winds are blowing tomorrow, a weak support crew coupled with his usual penchant for poor positioning will invite blistering attacks by very well coordinated BMC, Leopard-Trek, and Radio Shack squads. If he gets caught out, it might mean another minute or more lost. Then the other GC men can just mark him on Super-Besse.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

KenS said:


> Andy loses 30 sec on a stage while Contador goes after Evans. The next day Andy is testing Contador while Evans recovers. The next day Evans is testing Contador while Andy recovers. That looks like a recipe for a bad day at some point for Contador. He can't afford to lose another minute or two to any of the other GC riders like Evans.


This would be a likely scenario if Andy and Cadel were riding for the same team. It sounds more like wishful thinking on your part.
Both Schleck and Evans want to destroy each other as much as the want to destroy Contador.


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

Lazy Spinner said:


> He seems very desperate and lacking confidence in my opinion. Today's stage only gave him the opportunity to gain a few seconds and he had to burn a few matches to do it. Cadel beats him, he only gets eight seconds on Andy, and he barely beats Thor, a sprinter, to the line. WTF?
> If the winds are blowing tomorrow, a weak support crew coupled with his usual penchant for poor positioning will invite blistering attacks by very well coordinated BMC, Leopard-Trek, and Radio Shack squads. If he gets caught out, it might mean another minute or more lost. Then the other GC men can just mark him on Super-Besse.


Don't let the 1.7 km slightly uphill finish fool you. Thor is a classics rider and knows how to handle these small hills. Besides, he was protecting the yellow jersey so he put in that little extra near the end. Come the high mountains he'll fall back.

Today Contador proved that still has that kick after the Giro. I'd be worried if I was Andy or Cadel.


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## pdh777 (Oct 7, 2005)

Chip away strategy is his best bet - that's what he was trying to do today, gain some seconds wherever he could. Pulled back a few from Andy and others. Expect him to use the same tactics next time the road goes vertical.

So far Evans is riding great - this has to concern Conti as well.

I think Andy realizes he has to gain seconds wherever he can due to his TT skills. He will be attacking in the mountains if he has anything, as will Franck. They both realize this is their true option to win.

Also Kloden is riding really strong - he may be a force as well. Horner had misfortune today which took something out of him - most likely he will stabilize and could be strong. Levi could for sure be top ten. 

Wiggo is kind of a question mark, he is also riding well as of late.

Conti has a big feild to contend with this year - will be very interesting - looking forward to this one. My guess is that the yellow may change hands several times amongst the GC contenders before Paris.


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## bigbill (Feb 15, 2005)

His team will have to do too much work in the mountains. If he can't make one knock out punch in the mountains and put minutes on everyone else, he's done.


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## BAi9302010 (Mar 7, 2002)

Remember...a lot of those big names, Evans, Basso, Horner, etc. cut back on their racing schudules in order to be fresh for the Tour. They are all aiming at riding themselves into form during this first 7-10 days. Contador on the other hand won the Giro a month ago and it's hard to see him improving. Add to this that winning the Giro & Tour in the same year is essentially impossible clean. The last guy to do it, 13 years ago, was popped, and you have to go back 18 years, to the dark days of the early 90's, for the previous Giro/Tour double.


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## Tschai (Jun 19, 2003)

Frith said:


> Do you really think you're funny? I'm no fan of Contador but that joke is just so lame and it seems to be repeated in every thread that mentions him. Ignoring the fact that it's trolling to get the thread to devolve into doping chatter and get it sent to the naughty corner it just isn't funny. It's obvious and uncreative. If you're going to make joke use a bit of creativity otherwise lets stick to talking about cycling.
> 
> Edit: I may as well weigh in on the actual topic of the thread so as not to spend all my time feeding the trolls. I think the gap is just enough to make this tour very interesting. Contador needs to attack at every opportunity gaining 10 - 20 seconds where ever possible and then hope to make up the rest in the TT. It's unfortunate for him if he ends up losing due to a crash but it sure does set up the rest of the tour for some exciting battles.


I'd rather read the steak jokes than all the tired comments about how Contador needs to make up time by riding faster than the other riders.


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## Mapei (Feb 3, 2004)

*Hellhound on his trail.*

Seeing the way conti rides the grand tours, I don't believe he's going to bide his time. He doesn't seem to be a patient man. Most of the commentators put it in a bad light, but I put Conti's style in a good light. He rides like he has a hellhound on his trail. Wherever there's an important hill, he'll probably rip it as hard as he can.


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## Ventruck (Mar 9, 2009)

Hard to start making calls on this because we don't totally know his condition or what his Giro performance implies. I thought for stage 4 he kinda went with it, expecting that Schleck was still going to put chase, but progressively found himself in a sprint to start attacking to the finish.

It's obvious that he's going to be crunched with chipping away seconds at every stage possible and executing breakaways on the hills, as well as have a strong TT performance. How will that be done, though?

I have a weird hunch that Sastre will be joining him in some uphill breakaways. Yes, I'm over-extrapolating from this artcle, but I see it happening. Not so much of blatant pulling or rogue actions, but he may just "happen" to be there. Meh, shoot me.


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## moabbiker (Sep 11, 2002)

BAi9302010 said:


> Remember...a lot of those big names, Evans, Basso, Horner, etc. cut back on their racing schudules in order to be fresh for the Tour. They are all aiming at riding themselves into form during this first 7-10 days. Contador on the other hand won the Giro a month ago and it's hard to see him improving. Add to this that winning the Giro & Tour in the same year is essentially impossible clean. The last guy to do it, 13 years ago, was popped, and you have to go back 18 years, to the dark days of the early 90's, for the previous Giro/Tour double.


None of those riders mentioned can keep up with an attack by Berto on longer climbs even when they were in their prime, to which they no longer are (Basso in his previous life couldve but we know the end to that story). The two Berto needs to watch out for, however, are Gesink and Van den Broeck, both are running unusually strong with superb team support.


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## MattSoutherden (Jun 24, 2009)

Ventruck said:


> I have a weird hunch that Sastre will be joining him in some uphill breakaways. Yes, I'm over-extrapolating from this artcle, but I see it happening. Not so much of blatant pulling or rogue actions, but he may just "happen" to be there. Meh, shoot me.


Err. What's he gonna do, try to join the race unnoticed as the peloton rides past? :confused5: :skep:

As for all those Contador jibes. I agree they're getting a bit over the top. Lots of people seem to have a beef with the guy. But someone needs to put a steak in the ground. :frown2:


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## KenS (Jan 28, 2004)

MG537 said:


> This would be a likely scenario if Andy and Cadel were riding for the same team. It sounds more like wishful thinking on your part.
> Both Schleck and Evans want to destroy each other as much as the want to destroy Contador.


My point was that Schleck and Evans have a common enemy that they want to get rid of first because he is officially the strongest rider in the peloton. As soon as they can get rid of Contador permanently then they will turn on each other.

Contador's problem is that he is down on time and that there are a lot of riders with the common goal of keeping him there.


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## 95zpro (Mar 28, 2010)

Stage 4 was an uphill finish but nothing like switchbacks or a long climb where Contador really shines against his rivals. I expect that in the mountains Contador is going to drop these guys like a bad habit; these stages are relatively flat for now.


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## den bakker (Nov 13, 2004)

KenS said:


> My point was that Schleck and Evans have a common enemy that they want to get rid of first because he is officially the strongest rider in the peloton. As soon as they can get rid of Contador permanently then they will turn on each other.
> 
> Contador's problem is that he is down on time and that there are a lot of riders with the common goal of keeping him there.


The same story every time there's a clear favorite. And usually it does not pan out that way.


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## nate (Jun 20, 2004)

Dan Gerous said:


> Looks like he intends to try to get time anywhere he can... Then take bigger chunks in the mountains against the stronger TTers like Cadel and Wiggins (and everybody else) and in the TT against weak TTers like Andy and Basso... Definitly doable.


This is his modus operandi even when he is winnning. I don't think there is much question that he is one of the more aggressive grand tour riders in recent memory. He often gets criticized for "burning matches" when he doesn't need to, but now that he is in a position where he will need to attack every chance he gets, it will be nothing unusual. Every time he can try to gain a few seconds like at the end of yesterday's stage, he will do it.

Like I said, that doesn't seem any different than his normal riding style so I think he'll be relatively comfortable with the aggressiveness he'll have to display to win the GC. I think he can still win GC, but it will certainly be difficult and amazing if he does. He could risk burning out his team early even if he remains strong.


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## SilasCL (Jun 14, 2004)

den bakker said:


> The same story every time there's a clear favorite. And usually it does not pan out that way.


Exactly.

Kens - go out to your favorite long climb with two riding buddies. Try and have the 2 weaker riders drop the strongest rider, using teamwork. It won't happen.


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## culdeus (May 5, 2005)

I wonder how many of these haters are reformed Lance Fanbois and feel the need to trash the next great thing.


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## serpico7 (Jul 11, 2006)

culdeus said:


> I wonder how many of these haters are reformed Lance Fanbois and feel the need to trash the next great thing.


Probably some are. But plenty of people don't like either Lance or Alberto.


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## eplanajr (May 11, 2009)

ocean-ro said:


> Texas had some good steak too,for like 7 years



Man.. that made me laugh....

1:30.... 5 stages in... 

If I were him.. just chip away here and there and then go nuts on the mountains...


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## MG537 (Jul 25, 2006)

KenS said:


> My point was that Schleck and Evans have a common enemy that they want to get rid of first because he is officially the strongest rider in the peloton. As soon as they can get rid of Contador permanently then they will turn on each other.
> 
> Contador's problem is that he is down on time and that there are a lot of riders with the common goal of keeping him there.


Evans would love to work with Andy and keep Contador down.
But as the saying "it takes two to tango" goes, Andy has absolutely no interest in working with Evans. In fact Andy's number 1 target right now is Evans, all due to that dreaded TT the day before Paris. AS needs at least 1 minute on CE. The way I see it, Andy wants more to work with Alberto to destroy Evans right now. Once that is done then he could either try staying on AC's wheel or try gaining more time on him.


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