# Armstrong watch officially begun



## Dwaynebarry (Mar 16, 2004)

Sounds like Saturday he could not follow the pace of some (and we're not talking big names here) in the main group up the final climb, but bounced back with a stage win on Sunday. Although, I'm not sure it sounds like the final stage was not a mountain top finish?

And for my money, Armstrong still looks big, especially in the upper body. Still time, but at this point, I think his rivals may take some heart from Armstrong's performance.
As for Ullrich, he's still AWOL.


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*La*

Like him or not, he is still the man to beat. 

VHP crashing in Belgium was not good news. Pena is an important man for all parts of the tour. Losing him from the tour team would translate into direct time loss in the TTT. But, it looks like he recovered well. 

Azevedo looks to be coming along well and launched LA on that stage win. (I remember his 5th in the Giro a couple of years ago and am a beleiver that he will help the team much more than the inconsistent Heras). He can be a big contributor in the TTT and will be there in the mountains doing the work before Beltran and CheChu.

Beltran and Eki were in a break and Eki did well, but what happened to Beltran? Anyone have in info on that? It's hard to imagine that Beltran was riding for Eki on a hill finish...if Beltran is not riding well this year, then maybe the lose of Heras might have some impact.


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## Asiago (Jan 28, 2004)

*last stage*



Dwaynebarry said:


> Sounds like Saturday he could not follow the pace of some (and we're not talking big names here) in the main group up the final climb, but bounced back with a stage win on Sunday. Although, I'm not sure it sounds like the final stage was not a mountain top finish?


Not sure what was up on Sat. And the speculation could be anything. Maybe he did just not have the legs, maybe saving for Sunday?

Anyway, Sunday was a mountain-top finish by the way. And a steep one at the end as I understand...


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## lanterne rouge (Jun 27, 2002)

As for Ullrich, he's still AWOL.

I heard on the Giro coverage this morning, Ullrich was spotted by OLN doing recon and training work on ADH (Alpe D' Huez). They also stated that they were told to turn off the cameras. As for Armstrong, I would still put my money on him.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Moreau*

was quoted saying he spoke with LA during the last 2 stages and LA was saying he wasn't feeling all that well. Moreau also then commented that for a guy not feeling that well he sure did drop the hammer. He burst away with about 600 meters or so and no one could counter.


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## Old_school_nik (May 21, 2002)

*I also think he looks either too muscular or too fat in upper body....*



Dwaynebarry said:


> Sounds like Saturday he could not follow the pace of some (and we're not talking big names here) in the main group up the final climb, but bounced back with a stage win on Sunday. Although, I'm not sure it sounds like the final stage was not a mountain top finish?
> 
> And for my money, Armstrong still looks big, especially in the upper body. Still time, but at this point, I think his rivals may take some heart from Armstrong's performance.
> As for Ullrich, he's still AWOL.




I think it gets harder to get lean the older you get ven for the elite burning 6000 cals//day if you look at early pics of Lemond in 86 TDF and then in 91 his upper body is just too muscular - if you look at pics of LA now and then compare to his dominant climbing years like 99 or 2000 he looks larger now IMHO...

Can't wait for TDF....


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## campyhag (Feb 4, 2004)

I would bet hes 5-7 pounds over where he will be at the prolouge of the TDF. He also said he may have been peaking too early after he won the Tour of Georgia. I have this weird feeling he will be stronger than ever this tour in the mountains, but will he time trial as well as last year?


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## TypeOne (Dec 28, 2001)

*TOO light?*



campyhag said:


> I would bet hes 5-7 pounds over where he will be at the prolouge of the TDF. He also said he may have been peaking too early after he won the Tour of Georgia. I have this weird feeling he will be stronger than ever this tour in the mountains, but will he time trial as well as last year?


Didn't Lance claim (among several excuses) last year that he came in to the TdF a little too light and his power suffered?


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

TypeOne said:


> Didn't Lance claim (among several excuses) last year that he came in to the TdF a little too light and his power suffered?


I though it was he fell over during the Dauphine.

No, wait. He was using Nike shoes and didn't like them.

No, wait. His rear brake was dragging for a 100 klicks even though he changed bikes during that time.

No, wait. He lost 15 pounds of fluid in an hour while time trialing.

No, wait. He had personal problems.

No, wait. He had other "mysterious" problems that would all be revealed after the Tour.

No, wait. He came into the Tour too light.

No, wait. He peaked too early.

No, wait. He had back problems.

No, wait. He doesn't handle the heat well but was born and continues to live in Texas.

No, wait...


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## Coolhand (Jul 28, 2002)

Utah CragHopper said:


> I though it was he fell over during the Dauphine.
> 
> No, wait. He was using Nike shoes and didn't like them.
> 
> ...


No, wait-- he won. It's only an excuse _if you lose_. Yeesh. For the 5th time in a row.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*2-Shay*

as Roberto said "he still won and he or the team wasn't 100%"


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## reklar (Mar 15, 2003)

Coolhand said:


> No, wait-- he won. It's only an excuse _if you lose_. Yeesh. For the 5th time in a row.


Yeah, part of me says the other stuff is just mind games with the other riders. I wonder if they even pay attention to comments like that....

The other part says that there are many areas for improvement in a 3 week bike race including dehydration, fitness level/peaking, equipment, etc. Overall it seems like lance has that more well thought out than anyone else. For example, Ullrich's crash on the TT was probably preventable...However, with the races being so competitive I can see LA dwelling/obsessing on what went right/wrong on a given stage. It's what he spends his year preparing for after all...


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*and.....*

I just saw some pix of LA taken in April for a magazine shoot. he didn't look like he had a drop of fat on him, which is contrary to all these beer and donut reports. about that crash in the TT blame Jan's team and DS, Hincapie reported that turn to Johan and Lance so they could expect it. Jan went in blind. Was sad but of no consequence as he wasn't making up any time. jan's been training on Alpe D Huez ( As well as LA nad Tyler), can't wait. so geeked.


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## reklar (Mar 15, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> I just saw some pix of LA taken in April for a magazine shoot. he didn't look like he had a drop of fat on him, which is contrary to all these beer and donut reports. about that crash in the TT blame Jan's team and DS, Hincapie reported that turn to Johan and Lance so they could expect it. Jan went in blind. Was sad but of no consequence as he wasn't making up any time. jan's been training on Alpe D Huez ( As well as LA nad Tyler), can't wait. so geeked.


Reportedly the DS asked Jan whether he wanted to scout it in person and he declined deciding instead to watch video of it. His team probably should have warned him but....Armstrong scouted it in person in addition to Hincapie warning him. Who knows if Lance could have maintained pace the whole way through the TT. As I recall, Lance was less than half way through the TT when Ullrich crashed...Just seems to epitomize the differences between these two. Armstrong is so type A, leaves as little to chance as possible. Jan may actually be the more naturally gifted rider as LA has claimed all along. Interesting contrast....should be a good tour!


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

reklar said:


> Reportedly the DS asked Jan whether he wanted to scout it in person and he declined deciding instead to watch video of it.


Ullrich said that when he woke up and saw it was raining he knew he wouldn't be able to push the envelope enough to win the Tour.


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## mmoose (Apr 2, 2004)

*2003 Final TT*

Was somewhere after the 30K check of 45K total...so somewhere after the two thirds point. The first 30K were the flat straight parts, where JU can really put the hammer down in the big gears and ride hard. He's not as good in corners, and it takes longer to get up to speed. Whereas LA spinning can smooth out the corners and he has more advantage to get back to speed faster...


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*I'm so over this "natural Talent' BS*

now I Like Jan alot but this whole "natural talent' stuff is a load of hogwash. he was dragged out of grammar school by the East German sport machine and raised to do what he does.
he has more years of coaching/training/nutrition and whatever else they pumped into him than any non-Eastern bloc rider in the peloton. Jan is a great rider, his biggest problem is the fact that he was raised this way. he suffere(s)(ed) from Todd Marinovich disease that happens to many young proteges that are pushed too hard too early. burn out. until last year he lacked the love. He's never really rode for himself, why leaving T-Kom was good as it is pretty much a 'National" Team. The guy has always competed for his country and never for himself and the love of cycling. It's why I don't think going back was such a good thing, besides he looked better in Celeste.
claiming Jan has 'more natural talent' than anyone would be to do the same about a number of 80's era East German swimmers.


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## reklar (Mar 15, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> now I Like Jan alot but this whole "natural talent' stuff is a load of hogwash. he was dragged out of grammar school by the East German sport machine and raised to do what he does.
> he has more years of coaching/training/nutrition and whatever else they pumped into him than any non-Eastern bloc rider in the peloton. Jan is a great rider, his biggest problem is the fact that he was raised this way. he suffere(s)(ed) from Todd Marinovich disease that happens to many young proteges that are pushed too hard too early. burn out. until last year he lacked the love. He's never really rode for himself, why leaving T-Kom was good as it is pretty much a 'National" Team. The guy has always competed for his country and never for himself and the love of cycling. It's why I don't think going back was such a good thing, besides he looked better in Celeste.
> claiming Jan has 'more natural talent' than anyone would be to do the same about a number of 80's era East German swimmers.


Whoa, that was a wild rant. The end of it especially. Are you implying that Jan is doping? That's definitely what was up with the East german swimmers, and many were stripped of their medals for it. I'm fairly suspicious of the US track and field program these days. We seem to be the ones doing the doping now (Kelli White, suspicions about Marion Jones, etc.).

What puzzles me about this rant the most is that you seem to be contradicting yourself here. On the one hand you say he is a burned out protege (which of course implies that he has talent) and that's why he isn't winning. On the other hand you say that he doesn't have more natural talent. But he's won the tour once and finished 2nd 5 times. So, which is it? Basically most people see Jan and think, man, if Armstrong had that much talent (i.e., could come to tour overweight, try to ride himself in shape, etc., and still do well), he'd win by 20 minutes or something outrageous. This is simply due to the fact that Armstrong would never come to the tour overweight and out of shape. I believe Armstrong has a lot of talent, but I also think he gets the absolute maximum out of it every year post cancer. I can't say the same thing for Jan, which makes me believe he has more talent than Armstrong but squanders it in a certain sense. Most people would probably be happy winning one tour and getting five 2nd finishes if they felt they gave 100%. Can Jan really say that at the end of the day? He clearly isn't as driven or as type A as Armstrong, and that's fine...his choice after all what he does with his life.


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## James OCLV (Jun 4, 2002)

Coolhand said:


> No, wait-- he won. It's only an excuse _if you lose_. Yeesh. For the 5th time in a row.


My thoughts exactly... How are they excuses if he won?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*not implying he IS doping*

most likely he WAS doped. (probably without his knowledge) most eastern bloc (especially East German) atheletes were given all kinds of crap in their supposed 'vitamin' shots. It's why many of those female swimmers have so many serious health issues now. 
not a contradiction. If Jan was groomed from say 7 or 8 years of age he has had more coaching, training, diet etc... than most other riders in the peloton who get their starts much later. this would negate the fact that he has 'natural' talent. Granted only those showing 'talent' in the first place got shipped off to those 'Academies of Sport'. This constant training IMHO and the national pressure he feels is what causes the burnout.
Are you familiar with Todd Marinovich? His father wanted to live through his son so when he was very small had sports physiologists test him to see what he had the most aptitude for (it turned out to be Football quarterbacking). His entire childhood was spent with coaches, trainers, dieticians etc... and by the time he was in high school he broke every record known. He went to USC on a full ride scholarship, did quite well but away from his father's ever vigilant eye he began to stray. He discovered art, girls and pot among other things. He was drafted into the NFL as the next big thing but his career floundered as he'd rather smoke weed and paint. Would you say his talent was 'natural'? I think not, would you say his career and burnout is similar to Jans? I think so. Jan is a talented rider and I'm not comparing him to Lance or anyone, and he may have more talent than LA as your arguments say (not my issue) he can show up off-form and still compete. I agree I think his problem is mental, which I think stems from his upbringing in 'the machine'. His main problem is his size, at a skinny 170 Jan has to put out considerably more watts to keep up with those riders 20 lbs or so lighter. He has a harder road to haul through the mtns and it puts him at a distinct disadvantage. his added weight only exacerbates this problem.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*so what I'm trying to say is*

for a rider to have 'natural talent' he needs to come on the scene young, with little formal training and start destroying people. Tyler Hamilton for example didn't start cycling until college. That gives him probably 7-10 years less on a bike than your average euro. This to me is a better example of someone who is a 'natural' (it also might explain his frequent crashes )


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## reklar (Mar 15, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> most likely he WAS doped. (probably without his knowledge) most eastern bloc (especially East German) atheletes were given all kinds of crap in their supposed 'vitamin' shots.


There are reports of this from former US cycling youth team members as well...


atpjunkie said:


> It's why many of those female swimmers have so many serious health issues now.
> not a contradiction. If Jan was groomed from say 7 or 8 years of age he has had more coaching, training, diet etc... than most other riders in the peloton who get their starts much later. this would negate the fact that he has 'natural' talent.


Negate it? How so? 

As an aside it will be interesting to see how long Marion Jones, Carl Lewis, etc., end up living...FloJos death surprised how many? 


atpjunkie said:


> Granted only those showing 'talent' in the first place got shipped off to those 'Academies of Sport'. This constant training IMHO and the national pressure he feels is what causes the burnout.


 You seem to be hung up on the fact that he has had a lot of coaching. But you must realize the chicken and egg here--he was pulled out of school because he had talent, yes?


atpjunkie said:


> Are you familiar with Todd Marinovich? His father wanted to live through his son so when he was very small had sports physiologists test him to see what he had the most aptitude for (it turned out to be Football quarterbacking). His entire childhood was spent with coaches, trainers, dieticians etc... and by the time he was in high school he broke every record known. He went to USC on a full ride scholarship, did quite well but away from his father's ever vigilant eye he began to stray. He discovered art, girls and pot among other things. He was drafted into the NFL as the next big thing but his career floundered as he'd rather smoke weed and paint. Would you say his talent was 'natural'? I think not, would you say his career and burnout is similar to Jans? I think so.


Marinovich did have talent to be a QB--you even said that's the area for which he had the most aptitude! This is getting a bit absurd. It's like saying Kobe Bryant doesn't have natural talent as a basketball player because he's been around the game all his life, his father was a pro and he's been playing since he was 3. Or that Barry Bonds doesn't have talent for similar reasons. These cats have enormous talent. At the pro level of any sport, the greatest athletes all have loads of natural talent *and* developed talent. Are you implying that Jan doesn't have much natural talent? Again, it's absurd to think that! How could he come in to the tour out of shape and still finish so high in the GC? No amount of coaching is helping with that. What other riders could come to the tour out of shape and still do so well?

No, Marinovich and Jan are not that similar. Jan is still a successful cyclist into his late 20s. Yes, he went through a period where there was some turmoil, but it's not like he's flamed out and no longer riding at 24 or whatever.


atpjunkie said:


> Jan is a talented rider and I'm not comparing him to Lance or anyone, and he may have more talent than LA as your arguments say (not my issue) he can show up off-form and still compete. I agree I think his problem is mental, which I think stems from his upbringing in 'the machine'. His main problem is his size, at a skinny 170 Jan has to put out considerably more watts to keep up with those riders 20 lbs or so lighter. He has a harder road to haul through the mtns and it puts him at a distinct disadvantage. his added weight only exacerbates this problem.


Of course, but given that he has to put out more watts than other riders and has still won the tour and finished second five times while often not in peak condition indicates to me that he has tons of talent--part of which is untapped. Do you disagree? Do you think he can say he has given it his all at the end of the day? Or do you believe had he trained harder that he might have been able to beat Armstrong, say, last year?


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## reklar (Mar 15, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> for a rider to have 'natural talent' he needs to come on the scene young, with little formal training and start destroying people. Tyler Hamilton for example didn't start cycling until college. That gives him probably 7-10 years less on a bike than your average euro. This to me is a better example of someone who is a 'natural' (it also might explain his frequent crashes )


Yeah, maybe. It's not like Tyler could come to the tour overweight and still finish on the podium though. And he hasn't had the same type of results as Ullrich. Also, there's a part of me which wonders what's going on with all of the crashes? He doesn't seem to have a talent at keeping the rubber side down, which seems critical. LA seems to have a knack for that one...

Don't get me wrong, I root for Tyler. I think he has quite a bit of natural talent--huge aerobic capacity, great climber, amazing ability to suffer, etc. But he definitely works harder than Jan...imo, he's getting more out of what he's been dealt genetically than Jan.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Like I said*

I don't argue with Jan's talent (which is huge) just the term 'Natural'. like Kobe, Todd, etc.. all these guys have had huge "born talent-genetics' but everyone seems to think Jan rides on talent alone. My point is Jan has had more training than anyone in the peloton, was probably prepped since grade school (in opposition to Tylers late start) which doesn't detract from his talent, just from the term 'natural'. All your aforementioned atheletes had huge 'gifts' genetically but they have all been trained to optimize their gifts. There are plenty of players who may have gifts equal to a Jerry Rice, Michael Jordan, Lance etc... but it's ther lack of dedication and discipline stops them from fulfilling their potential. This in itself is a 'gift' and possibly something that comes 'naturally' and therefore should be added to the equation. Some riders just don't seem mentally built to lead, Nozal being a recent example, Sean Yates being one of the most famous. I personaly think Jan's lack of mental fortitude comes from burnout due to years of training, similar to Marinovich but with less of a 'meltdown'. Once again I'm not comparing and contrasting him with anyone as we'd need data (Lactic Threshold, resting heart rate, etc...) to truly compare their genetic engines. Do I think Jan does less with more? most likely. Do I think better fitness etc.. would have gave him victory? possibly. It's funny how a couple Americans can come to such prominence in a Euro dominated sport and it seems to be attributed to their 'grit and determination'. It says something about the WASP work ethic that drives them and the people in this country. 
as far as US Track and Amateur cycling, I wouldn't doubt it. Like I said I'm sure if Jan was given anything 'bad' it was without his knowledge or consent. RE: Flojo, I have 2 friends both Pole Vaulters, one just about Olympic qualifying (Med School is killing his training) who agree, No one makes that kid of improvements in the 100 without 'help', and this is what most likely killed her. I was friends with Gail Devers brother in college and he was on the same page as well, I think they 'protected her' from tests as she was the media sweetheart. There is all kinds of nastiness worldwide in track and field, far worse than cycling with less of a commitment to change.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Tyler crashing*

and I think he changed to cycling after a career ending ski crash. methinks he just goes fater than he can handle. Still I think he's the best example of a 'natural' high rate of success for a guy with very little (comparitive) experience. now Jan crashing...he's been riding forever, how come his bike handling is bad? I equate Tyler with Kobe as both have done extremely well without the standard years of training which to me points more to 'natural talent'.


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## CFBlue (Jun 28, 1999)

I think Tyler has a very real chance this year to upseat Lance and get good time on him in the mountains. Remember, last year, Tyler was basically riding with one arm and still rode exceptionally. He's healthy this year.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Tyler...*

except he crashed...again. can't count a wreck out for the tour.


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