# TdF Discus'n Stage 16 Jul20 SPOILERS Bourg-de-Peage to Gap



## PJay (May 28, 2004)

TdF Discus'n Stage 16 Jul20 SPOILERS Bourg-de-Peage to Gap

This stage should have been slated for Sunday, since it will be such a game-changer, and the viewership on Sat-Sun is higher than weekdays. This will be a game-changer.

Downhills allow riders to bunch back up, while significant climbs spread out the peloton. This stage, while ending in a generous 6-mile downhill, does so after providing 65 miles of gradual uphill a bit more severe than your most detested false flat. This is then followed by a 5-mile Cat 2 climb at Col de Cabre, an equivalently challenging descent followed by 20 more miles of grinding false-flat, followed by a respite of a drop of about 6 miles, only to deliver the survivors to a 2-cat 6-mile climb up the Col de Manse.

There are a couple severe switchbacks on both of the major descents to watch out for. BTW, this route is where, in 2003, Beloki's brake locked up while trying to manage the melted-tar surface, almost bringing a relatively unknown Texan down in the crash - however, being from Texas, this young buck took his descent-speed and bunny hopped the downhill switchback through a field, making the last few meters by foot, and hopping right back onto the course, anti-Jade-Helm style. Beware when Texans draw a line in the sand with a sword, or in a field with a road bike.

By Col de Manse, if the lactic acid has not driven the riders to the desperate point of licking a few tabs of lysergic acid, they are rewarded with a technical 5 mile downhill which almost levels out for a smooth landing in Gap. Probably the smoothest landing of the entire tour - if the Champs did not have those 180-degree bends, it might be as sweet.

Outside of the final mile, if it weren't for the support vehicles and the cameraderie, this would seem like a ride set up by that wheelchair guy in the Saw movie. To make matters worse, as you get to about 9 or 10 miles from the finis, a right turn would bring you to the finish tout de suite, but the sadists mapping the route take you to the hilly circuit of Gap to bring some tourist dollars to Col de Manse.

The long inclines are just enough to keep most of the pack engaged, and hoping the other guy cries "merci" before your team does. Attacks may again be attempted immediately, since riders and teams may want to see who feels good versus who is at the limit.

One thing is certain: along the way guys will be falling off the back, and crying for "Maman." Possibly from KM40 onward.

The inclines, climbs, and technical descents provide opportunities for a serious breakaway to form and hold, or for a serious rear echelon to carry the more sane to the finish line.

I really sense a major contender cracking. Right now, it seems like the fial 3 on the podium will arise from those who are now in the top 8, possibly to 10. but this stage could shake up a lot, with those long rises. Nibali and Contador have both had moments of apparent weakness. Quintana remains in the optimistically anticipating range. Froome has had no moments of weakness, which makes us wonder if his is due. TJ is apparently anticipating the Alps, so maybe he is excited by all of this. If any riders have slept at a Holiday Inn, this stage is good for pressing the issue on a course with a lot of variation.

There certainly are great mountain riders farther down the ranks who might stretch their legs a bit here. This may be the final opportunity for a long-shot dark horse to jump from 20-minutes down up to the top ten.

The final mile is very mild. It is a divided road, and my guess is they will restrict riders to one half of this -otherwise, it could not be more accommodating to the weary randonneur. But this is after the climb then the technical descent with plenty of zigs as well as zags.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*jul 20 profile*

jul 20 profile


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Col de Cabre ascent*

Col de Cabre ascent - from left to right, on D93. Arrow is circa summit point demarcation.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*probably the worst bit of Col de Cabre descent*


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*some early ascent on Col de Manse bottom to top up N85*

some early ascent on Col de Manse bottom to top up N85


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## ibericb (Oct 28, 2014)

Another day for the early attack group to break and go for the sprint, followed by the two climbs along the way. What happens i the GC leaders group will depend on who goes on the attack. The descent off of Col de Manse is legendary, and Conti made a bit of a name for himself in the pst on the descent. Could get exciting tomorrow.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Sagan, being so frustrated for being in a drought, does a one man breakaway early in the stage and the peloton never catches him at the finish line.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

Geez, 130 KM of climbing to the first cat 2 Col - guess this won't be a sprinters stage. Attacks at the near the top of Manse would make sense for Contador and Nibbles (heck, they should work together, but won't). Then they can fly down the decent - no way Froome follows that.

If a CG battle ensues on Manse, I'm afraid Tejay may crack.

Good stage for a break to go FTW.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Sagan in Beast Mode today.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_8m5-sR6I4


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## skinewmexico (Apr 19, 2010)

AJL said:


> If a CG battle ensues on Manse, I'm afraid Tejay may crack.
> 
> 
> > Agree. He's way to comfortable with just making the podium anyway. I'm not sure how all these GC guys think they can wheel suck Froome all the way around and move up in the standings. But BMC is playing not to lose, which never works.


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

PJay said:


> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_8m5-sR6I4


Sagan would have bunny hopped over him with a tail whip, and wheelied down the hill.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Skewer said:


> Sagan would have bunny hopped over him with a tail whip, and wheelied down the hill.


And he's second... Yet again


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

heartbreaker for sagan! i would cut my hair at this point. can't be very aero.

the downhill down manse of the overall leaders is gonna be messy!


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## aclinjury (Sep 12, 2011)

epic descent by Sagan. Unfortunately he's a marked man whenever he's in a breakaway. Tinkoff should at least give him some support. Not sure why Sagan is getting criticized. The guy is all heart, but one man can only do so much if all the other are marking him.


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## Marc (Jan 23, 2005)

Whew, after that crash by Thomas... Word is he's back on his bike


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## Skewer (Sep 13, 2011)

Sagan showed me something today. He wil be the Michael Jordan of road cycling in a year or 2.


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## jetdog9 (Jul 12, 2007)

Marc said:


> Whew, after that crash by Thomas... Word is he's back on his bike


Wow. A few inches over and a less experienced rider, you might have a dead or paralyzed person. Instead, he got up and finished the race! Wonder if they'll put a big pad around that pole or something in future races...


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## jetdog9 (Jul 12, 2007)

aclinjury said:


> epic descent by Sagan. Unfortunately he's a marked man whenever he's in a breakaway. Tinkoff should at least give him some support. Not sure why Sagan is getting criticized. The guy is all heart, but one man can only do so much if all the other are marking him.


I think he's great but the criticism isn't that hard to understand. Green jerseys or not, he's always "1st place loser" and on a lot of these finishes he has nobody but himself to blame. One of these days he's going to have to be the one to just go for it, because nobody is going to help him just to watch him sprint away at the line.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

*Sagan looked great, but Plaza slept at a Holiday Inn.*



jetdog9 said:


> I think he's great but the criticism isn't that hard to understand. Green jerseys or not, he's always "1st place loser" and on a lot of these finishes he has nobody but himself to blame. One of these days he's going to have to be the one to just go for it, because nobody is going to help him just to watch him sprint away at the line.


To Sagan's defense, Plaza played the day perfectly. The group gave just a little bit too much leash.


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## PJay (May 28, 2004)

well, my forecast for today was pretty good, but i thought at least one major contender would blow a gasket; instead, today's fight for MJ looked like video loop of the last two weeks.


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## coldash (May 7, 2012)

The Thomas crash was horrible to watch Barguil has apologized but blamed Tejay for pushing him, although Barguil also nearly took out Mollema 2 corners later.


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## CrankyMinion (May 26, 2014)

Peter Second


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## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

jetdog9 said:


> I think he's great but the criticism isn't that hard to understand. Green jerseys or not, he's always "1st place loser" and on a lot of these finishes he has nobody but himself to blame. One of these days he's going to have to be the one to just go for it, because nobody is going to help him just to watch him sprint away at the line.


Exactly. I also think he's too full of himself and underestimates other people's ability which makes him loose opportunities.


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## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

Skewer said:


> Sagan, being so frustrated for being in a drought, does a one man breakaway early in the stage and the peloton never catches him at the finish line.


I'm really not sure if you are joking, a troll, or highly delusional. I understand you wanting Sagan to win a stage but making up fantasies is just that, a fantasy. So far in these threads you believed Sagan could out-sprint the best sprinters in the world, out-climb pure climbers in a category 2 climb, and attack from the gun and win a stage by himself.


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## David Loving (Jun 13, 2008)

Why is Barguil still in the Tour? He should be DQ'd. Don't they DQ dangerous acts like his?


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## paredown (Oct 18, 2006)

The interesting thing about that corner where Thomas went off-roading is that Sagan nearly went off there as well. (Was this the same corner where Biloki and Contador both went off??--it was somewhere on that same descent...)

I didn't see a clip on Barguil by TJ--and Eurosport played it a few times once they knew Thomas was OK--it looked to me like Barguil had a little to much speed, locked it up as he tried to scrub it off and shoulder checked Thomas. Thomas is a lucky guy! 

As far as Sagan, did you see the rest of the break?--no one was going to help chase down Plaza--they know Sagan, they will not work with him and get pipped at the line. I think he played it pretty well--with a lesser rider up the road, Sagan would have caught him.


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

ARGH! My Tivo must have locked up just as the leading riders where nailing it down the Col de Manse. It didn't resume till just after Plaza took the win. I was so pumped up over today's finish. Maddening


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## deviousalex (Aug 18, 2010)

paredown said:


> As far as Sagan, did you see the rest of the break?--no one was going to help chase down Plaza--they know Sagan, they will not work with him and get pipped at the line. I think he played it pretty well--with a lesser rider up the road, Sagan would have caught him.


This is exactly why Sagan should have not gone to Tinkoff. If he had gone more towards a team geared around him and his abilities he would have had help there. But then again he's making $4M a year. I'd not win stages in the tour for that money


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## MMsRepBike (Apr 1, 2014)

AJL said:


> ARGH! My Tivo must have locked up just as the leading riders where nailing it down the Col de Manse. It didn't resume till just after Plaza took the win. I was so pumped up over today's finish. Maddening


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## gofast2wheeler (Oct 13, 2011)

If anybody watched the interview with G man his helmet where his head hit the pole was pushed in. He was very lucky he was not killed especially if he hit face first. Barguil should be removed from tour or at least taken to for him to tone it down. He was going to gain nothing in that move. Peloton will avoid him now on the up and coming descents. Man, he caused the big accident that caused the NASCAR style pile up. Sagan is the man. He descended that mountain like nothing I have ever seen. Like Phil the commentator said it was like he was on a Mototgp bike. He gained over 30 seconds on descent. He has crazy skills Sagan. Unbelievable!!


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## Fireform (Dec 15, 2005)

Sagan's descent was the fastest ever down Manse. Heart stopping, amazing skill level--I could barely watch in places. He put 40 seconds on the guys he came over the top with. 

I don't think there is anything the race organizers can do about Barguil at this point, but he can't be very popular in the peloton. He's been involved in several of the most spectacular crashes this year.


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## robt57 (Jul 23, 2011)

Fireform said:


> Sagan's descent was the fastest ever down Manse. Heart stopping, amazing skill level--I could barely watch in places.


I am about one of the most fearless descenders I know [or used to be anyway].
I cringed often watching that feat of skills. Whew...


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## makeitso (Sep 20, 2008)

gofast2wheeler said:


> Barguil should be removed from tour or at least taken to for him to tone it down. He was going to gain nothing in that move. Peloton will avoid him now on the up and coming descents. Man, he caused the big accident that caused the NASCAR style pile up.


Barguil has to be winning the prize of the rider who's taken out or at least taken down the most riders in the Tour this year. 2 maillot jaune's (admittedly TM took himself out more than Barguil contributed), solely responsible for the 35+ rider pileup in stage 3, falling on his own in stage 10, now slip sliding around taking out G and blaming it on TJ then almost taking out Mollema a few corners later... I can't imagine anyone in the peloton wanting to be around this liability at all in the high speed flats or descents.


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## burgrat (Nov 18, 2005)

That descent by Sagan was insane. That boy has skills. I'm glad Thomas is ok also. He could have been really hurt in that crash. Overall a great stage. 
Bring on the Alps! I really hope Quintana and Valverde can work together tactically to work on Froome and Sky. Contador is out of contention, IMO, but I can see him fighting too. Maybe a stage win for him. Good stuff to come!


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## The Weasel (Jul 20, 2006)

coldash said:


> The Thomas crash was horrible to watch Barguil has apologized but blamed Tejay for pushing him, although Barguil also nearly took out Mollema 2 corners later.


Not to mention him being the reason for the stage 3 pile up. In this instance he tried to pass up TJ at the wrong time on a hard 90 degree bend.
Somebody needs to chop this guy!


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

makeitso said:


> Barguil has to be winning the prize of the rider who's taken out or at least taken down the most riders in the Tour this year. 2 maillot jaune's (admittedly TM took himself out more than Barguil contributed), solely responsible for the 35+ rider pileup in stage 3, falling on his own in stage 10, now slip sliding around taking out G and blaming it on TJ then almost taking out Mollema a few corners later... I can't imagine anyone in the peloton wanting to be around this liability at all in the high speed flats or descents.


1) Sagan's descent was insane. So GD impressive how he makes pros look like club riders on those descents. 
2) Ya ever notice how most riders get in a break and spend the following day(s) off the back? How the hell does Sagan keep competing in breaks day in day out. I've always had more interest in Roulers than pure climbers and Sagan is just frigging ridiculous. Guy is stupid talented, he should rest one day and no one would be able to keep up. (unless a mtn stage)
3) Barguil should be sent home. Causes the huge pile up on stage 3, crashes on his own stage 10 and then today. Stupid pass attempt, over cooked the corner, damn near killed G Thomas and is trying to blame Teejay. Warren, the reason you bumped is because you were trying to wedge into him going into a hairpin corner. Everyone else was holding their line trying to get down in one piece, you were being an idiot trying to gain a handful of seconds and risking numerous top 10 riders lives in the process.
4) If Barguil isn't pulled and I was Team Sky I'd get Stannard to lock elbows with Warren and ride him into a tree, parked car, building, etc...... I know this won't happen but Warren will be a Pariah in the peloton


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## AJL (Jul 9, 2009)

MMsRepBike said:


>



Thanks you!!! :thumbsup:


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## il sogno (Jul 15, 2002)

Barguil gave a totally lame apology. Blames it on Tejay for "shouldering" him. Warren, you shouldn't have been trying to pass there in the first place! And Warren, that's the kind of apology a six year old would make. 

I don't think he should be tossed from the Tour. I do think it would be fun to have Ian Stannard "police" him.


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## MoonHowl (Oct 5, 2008)

Yes, Barguil seemed to take zero responsibility for his actions. Looks like this kid is going to come away from this none the wiser unless the rest of the peloton takes in it on to teach him one way or another.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

well he thought he could close the 2 minute gap to Mollema........


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## BCSaltchucker (Jul 20, 2011)

il sogno said:


> Barguil gave a totally lame apology. Blames it on Tejay for "shouldering" him. Warren, you shouldn't have been trying to pass there in the first place! And Warren, that's the kind of apology a six year old would make.
> 
> I don't think he should be tossed from the Tour. I do think it would be fun to have Ian Stannard "police" him.


agree it was lame

just him being French. Though riders from other places do the same kind of deflection and possess eggshell-ego syndrome .. like a certain rider from Isle of Man, or that Lance guy from mid 90s, even Lemond since birth to today, LOL

Though to be fair, riders have to consider legal consequences for what they say after being involved in a crash. To wit consider the 92 World champs, where Steve Bauer was sued for what was obviously an honest racing mishap.


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