# Tour 2004 Predictions



## Spunout (Aug 12, 2002)

As posted http://www.cyclingnews.com/letters/?id=2004/feb13letters

How will the Tour 2004 unfold?
It was a dark winter night in the Canadian snow-packed Laurentian mountains. From the star-studded sky came a small but clearly visible light beam. It hit the snowdrift in front of my log cabin and began melting it. I was afraid at first, but then I saw that the beam was merely writing something in the snow... Here's what it said.

Predictions for the 2004 Tour de France.

The big news about the TdF 04 happens before the Tour. In early March at the Vuelta à Murcia, Armstrong and Ullrich meet in a heavily media-covered event. Before the start of the first stage they look at each other and decide that sportsmanship should be the order of the day. When the stage finally begins, both decide that it would be unsportsmanlike not to wait for the other guy, so both refuse to turn a pedal before the other. Reports from Spain in early July have both riders still standing at the start line at Murcia, five-month beards on their chins, surrounded by empty musette bags and drink bottles, still giving each other "The Look" and waiting for the other guy to move.

Another story breaks just before the prologue. Jean-Marie Leblanc (in an unprecedented move) decides to ban all Spanish riders that are not riding on a French team or a French bike, finally proving Pascual Llorente's point. Somewhat interestingly, ASO forgets to ban Roberto Heras, thinking that he is still riding for USPS.

The prologue is won by Joseba Beloki, with David Millar close second. Millar has to carry his ride across the last part of the 6 km course after both pedals, his saddle and the handlebars come off. Tyler Hamilton breaks his collarbone after being hit by Millar's left pedal. He will continue the Tour.

The first three stages are decided by mass-sprints and are all won by Sandro Petacchi.

The team time trial is nullified after it is discovered that theoretically an entire team could lose sufficient time for the leader to lose the TdF. After checking the race's history, Leblanc discovers that a lot of Tours were decided by less than a five-minute margin.

Stage 5, 6 and 7 are all won by Petacchi but he crashes after his sixth win while trying to having to raise six fingers to point at the camera and not noticing Graham Watson, who wanted to take one of his famed snapshots at the finish line. Petacchi retires, Watson is okay, his camera is not. Tyler Hamilton breaks his second collarbone after being hit by Watson's camera lens. He will continue the Tour.

Stage 8 is won in the rain by David Millar after a solo break away of 171 km, which starts after the first kilometre of the day. Millar is happy but tells everyone that the course is too dangerous and the race should be stopped.

After the rest day it's time for the sprinters again. O'Grady and Zabel battle it out on the Stage 9 finish line, only to find that they mistook the "flamme rouge" for the finish. Cooke and McEwen sprint to the real line and cross it at the exact same time. The photo finish proves it. They share the podium, the ceremonial handshakes, the flowers, the podium girls... Both fail to go on to stage 10 and open a flower shop in the center of Guéret, which is a nice city for settling.

Stage 10 is won by Axel Merckx. His dad is so proud that he knocks over a couple of spectators on the way to the podium. He also runs into Tyler Hamilton who falls and breaks his left arm. He will continue the Tour.

Stage 11 sees a 20-man breakaway getting caught by the peloton with only 50 meters to go. O'Grady wins the sprint but is later disqualified after it is found that "the bulge" he was packing in his shorts on the podium is actually an aluminum-wrapped cucumber.

Stage 12 is a classic mountaintop finish. Botero wins the stage in front of Heras, who gets the yellow, Virenque is third but gets the King of the Mountain in the process. Virenque fails to start Stage 13 as during the night he develops a rash as a result of sleeping in the polka-dot jersey. He now has permanent polka-dot scars all over his upper body.

Stage 13 is won by Beloki in front of Heras. Beloki breaks down in tears at the finish line. A minute later Tyler Hamilton passes the finish line, not noticing the puddle of tears. His front wheel slips and he crashes, breaking his right arm. He will continue the Tour.

Stage 14 is won by Vinokourov, who takes along his one year old baby in a bike trailer for the stage. He literally "rocks the baby" over the finish line.

Stage 15 is won by Basso in front of Sastre and Bettini. In fact all riders in the front group are Italian. They are all disqualified as a raid by French police allegedly discovers receipts for drugs of a total of over €600 million in their luggage (but no drugs). Six months later French police quietly abandon the case for lack of evidence.

Stage 16 is the long-awaited time trial up Alpe d'Huez. Beloki wins by three seconds over Botero and five seconds over Heras (still in yellow). Leblanc is stunned that no Frenchman has yet won a stage and decides to ban all non-European riders from the rest of the Tour. After protests by the US state department, Leblanc reverses his decision and decides to leave US and Canadian riders in. Tyler Hamilton is so happy that he tries to do a wheelie on his TT bike only to fall and break his neck. He will continue the Tour. 

Stage 17 is won by Floyd Landis after replacing his radio earpiece with headphones and listening to ZZ Top all day. However, Floyd will not continue the Tour as he does not notice the finish line and keeeps on going. Rumors have it that he is now on tour with the little ol' band from Texas.

Stage 18 is won by Beloki - who promptly breaks down and cries again - in front of Heras who remains in yellow. Joseba will however not go on with the Tour as the entire La Boulangère team is stricken with diarrhea after eating some bad brioches for dinner.

Stage 19 is won by David Millar, again in the rain. He is very happy and thanks all his friends during the podium ceremony, including a tribal medicine man from Mozambique who was seen before the stage in the start area performing a rain dance. Heras stays in yellow.

Stage 20 gets underway with a dispute between Manolo Saiz and Johann Bruyneel after Johann tries to hand out champagne to the reporters at the start line. Manolo accuses Johann of "backstabbing" after which Bruneel punches Saiz in the face. Both roll on the floor fighting and screaming. Leblanc sees the scene and fines them both one symbolic Swiss franc before he bans them both from the final stage. 

At the finish line there is a mass-sprint of the peloton which is won by George Hincapie. However George does not believe he won and refuses to go to the podium. Heras rolls in with the main pack, proudly displaying the yellow. At the podium he receives the final yellow jersey of the 2004 TDF with... a USPS logo on it! Some rumors have it that he never left the "blue train", others claim that Bruyneel has offered him a new contract to rejoin the USPS squad. The contract is backdated to January 1 2004.

Epilogue: After reading this message in the snow, I realized that this could only mean that I either had too much eggnog for Xmas or that I have been reading too many Cyclingnews.com reader letters. Either way, I'm waiting for the Tour 2004! Only 135 days left!

Laurent Schoux
Montreal, Canada
Wednesday, February 11, 2003


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## FORZA! (Feb 13, 2004)

*classic!*



Spunout said:


> As posted http://www.cyclingnews.com/letters/?id=2004/feb13letters
> 
> How will the Tour 2004 unfold?
> Predictions for the 2004 Tour de France...


that's good stuff. i hope to be there on the Alpe to catch the mountain TT in person. i can't wait!


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## trek5900cyclist (Jan 22, 2004)

*That was the funniest thing I have ever read*

My favorite parts were with Ty Hamilton. Wheelies on the TT bike was hillarious. I got this funny mental image of him riding on his new BMC bikes in a full body cast.


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## bdx1366 (Jan 29, 2004)

well done.LOL
But you forgot stage 22 Where Jacky Durand goes on a 180 km break-away only to be told by his directeur sportif that the tour ended the day before .


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## CycloPathic (Feb 3, 2004)

*Can I get it on DVD?*

good stuff


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## AJS (Aug 7, 2003)

Tour De France prediction for '04? I'm taking Ullrich or Hamilton. Phuck Lance.


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## paa (Jan 27, 2004)

*My not-so-bold predictions*

Podium-Armstrong, Ullrich, Basso
Green-Petacchi
Polkadot-Mayo, Simoni or Virenque
White-Chavanel or Valverde
Most aggressive-Valverde or Chavanel
TT's-Millar and Ullrich
MTT-Armstrong
TTT-USPS
Team Clas.-T-Mobile


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## LSchoux (Apr 1, 2004)

Hey SPUN... Thx for posting my letter


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## soulsurfer104 (Jun 30, 2003)

*04*

this years tour should be very interesting, maybe even more so than last years. i think hamilton will make a good appearance in the mountains, because he rode so strong last year and that was with a broken collarbone. i think lance will win, but this will be his last time. ullrich or vino will take 2nd, and hamilton will take 3rd. should be interesting when Cipo and Petacchi are sprinting together. i'm hoping Cipo schools Petacchi, if only because he's the epitome of the word "cool". i want to see lance and tyler battle it out on the Alp d Huez, and millar and ullrich battle it out in the ITT. 

oh, and i will win the TdF in about 10-12 years.....look for me


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## _andrew_ (Jan 2, 2003)

soulsurfer104 said:


> this years tour should be very interesting, maybe even more so than last years. i think hamilton will make a good appearance in the mountains, because he rode so strong last year and that was with a broken collarbone. i think lance will win, but this will be his last time. ullrich or vino will take 2nd, and hamilton will take 3rd. should be interesting when Cipo and Petacchi are sprinting together. i'm hoping Cipo schools Petacchi, if only because he's the epitome of the word "cool". i want to see lance and tyler battle it out on the Alp d Huez, and millar and ullrich battle it out in the ITT.
> 
> oh, and i will win the TdF in about 10-12 years.....look for me



Firstly Lance will not win the tour this year, also he will be lucky to even make the podium. First reason, the curse on the sixth tour, no other rider has ever won their sixth, there has always been a event to prevent this or their confidence gets in the way. Lance is too fat and has lost the power to weight that has gave him the edge in the mountains and his time trialling is hasn't improved since last season. Finially lance hasn't been racing enough in he is currently more concerned with making media appearances and eating doughnuts with actressses; simply put fame has got to his head and he has lost sight that his racing is what has made him what he is today nothing else and without it he is a nobody. He needs to get back to racing if he wants to stand a chance come July, grand tours are won in march and april. 
My podium picks Hamilton Ullrich Basso
other notiable mentions Vinokourov, Mayo, Moreau, Heras
darkhorse Boogerd\

but its the tour so anything can happen so i think we'll just have to wait till july to find out


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## AJS (Aug 7, 2003)

Don't forget to put Rebellin in there somewhere. He's doing well in the Classics so far.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

I wouldn't forward that e to him, without first asking Ivan Dominguez how crow tastes. If you're buying all that donut, tv hype you are falling into the second best LA ruse since the "I'm blowing up bluff" at Alpe de Huez. First he's close to both Merckx and Indurain, he won't make Miguels mistake of showing up out of form. second he won't (actually too late to do anyhow) take a year off from the Tour from Boredom (Like Merckx)and go win the Giro and set the hour record. Hinault and Anquetil both took too long to win five and their age made it harder. 
Hell HinaBut LA has the best coach, the best technology and is the most meticulous preparer since Eddy. Heras said it best and I paraphrase "remember he still won the Tour this year and he and the team weren't at their best." USPS has shown more early success than ever, is as good or better than they have ever been. Methinks he will want to put a stamp on #6 and will dominate the race far more than last year.
my prediction LA 
Tyler, 
Jan
toss in Basso, Mayo, Jullich or Leipheimer as my wild cards.


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## _andrew_ (Jan 2, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> I wouldn't forward that e to him, without first asking Ivan Dominguez how crow tastes. If you're buying all that donut, tv hype you are falling into the second best LA ruse since the "I'm blowing up bluff" at Alpe de Huez. First he's close to both Merckx and Indurain, he won't make Miguels mistake of showing up out of form. second he won't (actually too late to do anyhow) take a year off from the Tour from Boredom (Like Merckx)and go win the Giro and set the hour record. Hinault and Anquetil both took too long to win five and their age made it harder.
> Hell HinaBut LA has the best coach, the best technology and is the most meticulous preparer since Eddy. Heras said it best and I paraphrase "remember he still won the Tour this year and he and the team weren't at their best." USPS has shown more early success than ever, is as good or better than they have ever been. Methinks he will want to put a stamp on #6 and will dominate the race far more than last year.
> my prediction LA
> Tyler,
> ...


Hate to break it to you buddy but Armstrong isn't in the same league as Merckx and even Indurin
Firstly consider Merckx won 11 grand tours armstrong 5, merckx 4 world championships armstrong 1, Merckx won at absolutely everything he entered where as armstrong only plays to win once per year. Merckx could do everything climb sprint time trial solo break, armstrong can only climb and time trial
Merckx broke to embarass his opponents armstrong is too concerned with showing class or burning out. Merckx wanted to win everything he was the total package the total athlete

MERCKX IS A CYCLING GOD, THE BEST EVER WAS THE BEST THERE EVER WILL BE HANDS DOWN


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## LSchoux (Apr 1, 2004)

_andrew_ said:


> Hate to break it to you buddy but Armstrong isn't in the same league as Merckx and even Indurin
> Firstly consider Merckx won 11 grand tours armstrong 5, merckx 4 world championships armstrong 1, Merckx won at absolutely everything he entered where as armstrong only plays to win once per year. Merckx could do everything climb sprint time trial solo break, armstrong can only climb and time trial
> Merckx broke to embarass his opponents armstrong is too concerned with showing class or burning out. Merckx wanted to win everything he was the total package the total athlete
> 
> MERCKX IS A CYCLING GOD, THE BEST EVER WAS THE BEST THERE EVER WILL BE HANDS DOWN


I agree that Eddy is the greatest... So we should listen to him. In 2000 he predicted that Lance would win 6, 7 or more Tours (in France that is). 

I don't want to get into a discussion here because I feel that nobody can honestly predict the outcome of the Tour de France. We can speculate on who is a favorite and who is not... just to be proven wrong the first mountain stage, the first time trial or even the first stage... see 2003. Hence, look at my original Letter and I think we should all agree to disagree and be on our merry way  

And I know... What do I think ? I think it's going to be Kim Kirchen winning the Tour de France 2004 (I don't even know if he'll be selected...but if he is... He will win). Should I bet 1$ on it I would probably come out wealthy


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*did I ever say LA is better?*

I've checked my post over and over as I gaze across my office at my Molteni Orange Merckx that got me here to work and I just can't find it. I was comparing the failures of other 5 time champions which you so 'non-scientifically' blame on a 'curse'. Trust me, my daughter (9 months Old) has a picture of Eddy over her crib (69 breakaway) and I'm accutely aware of his Palmares. Like I stated he would have won 6 but took a key year off, then a wreck and finally a punch by a jealous spectator ruined his chances. Indurain clearly made a training decision error (coming in a tad heavy) expecting to ride off the extra weight in the first "easy-(relative term)" week of the Tour. Bad weather (cold/rain) forced a sluggish pace and extra food intake to keep warm kept those pounds on and that's when Riis attacked in the mtns. I used Miguel and Eddy foremost as they are friends, allies and mentors of Lance. Big Mig taught him his cadence. 
In regards to your other posts:
LA's TTing well lets see, he's won every TT he's done this year except 1 at Crit. Intern, which he came in a close second to Jens Voight who had trained to 'peak' for this event. 
so his TTing hasn't shown much this season?
He's had opportunity even 'off form' to win a early mini-tour but instead after taking the TT works as a Dom for team mate Landis.
His so far 'early season' , fat/rock star lifestyle/ beer drinking/ donut eating self has had more early season victories than any other year. 
The "cuban missle" sends a mild insult his way 'not an issue' in TdG, Lance grabs his wheel and pips him in a SPRINT. check the pix of his lunge. this tells volumes about his 'attitude' and everytime someone detracts him, it motivates him more for the kill. 
In regards as I said I'm not comparing him to any of the other of the 5x winners but if you'd like I will.
On TdF Palmares alone (Days in Yellow, Stage Victories and overall time gaps)
the order would be
1) Merckx (God) none even close
2) Hinault (the last true patron of the Tour) I'll put him here even though I only count 4 of his victories as the fifth was gifted. But knee injury, killed a key section of his TdF career.
3) LA (5 in a row, more days in Yellow, more stages) competes and wins in both TT and Mtn stages ( Mtn. where Indurain and Anquetil were more known for damage control)
so LA gets the 'more all around package' over Mig and Anquetil but under the annibal and the Badger as, as youstated they took sprints as well.
4) Big Mig (gotta give pts for the 5x in a row his overall gentlemanship and absolute domination of the TT)
5) Anquetil (though begrudgingly as his competitiveness spanned a longer timespan than Mig or LA)
6) Lemond, I'm counting him as a 4x winner (taking one back from the Badger). without that stupid hunting accident he may have been the first to win 6.
now this is based on Tour record alone, Mig would jump LA in an overall as he raced and won other GT's. But it's hard to judge honestly across time as different ages require different training, etc....Cycling is far more specific for everyone now so riders don't dominate across disciplines like they used to. Don't forget Eddy kicked tail on a fixie as well.
so now let's all chant and be happy
EDDY! EDDY! EDDY! EDDY! EDDY! EDDY! EDDY!
and yes, we should listen to the words of God as so eloquently put in another post.
I'm just bummed that after Sunday my beloved classics are over and the OLN coverage this year has sucked! Lemond said it best, "I'd trade my world championships for a Paris Roubaix" or Indurain " I'd settle for a year of seconds for victory in the Tour".


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*so my question is*

Coppi or Bartali.equal # of wins , Coppi cut down by constant battle with Malria but Bartali remained competitive for a huge span of years. How many woudl they have won without WW2?


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> 3) LA (5 in a row, more days in Yellow, more stages) competes and wins in both TT and Mtn stages ( Mtn. where Indurain and Anquetil were more known for damage control)
> so LA gets the 'more all around package' over Mig and Anquetil but under the annibal and the Badger as, as youstated they took sprints as well.
> 4) Big Mig (gotta give pts for the 5x in a row his overall gentlemanship and absolute domination of the TT)


Big Mig is ahead of LA right now. Two Tour-Giro doubles outweigh his boring racing style and tilt the scale in his favor over LA's five Tours with no other grand tour attempts--let alone victories.

Big Mig was never a whiner. LA's rediculous excuses last year in preparation for a loss were pathetic. Lemond usually whined after or while something was happening; even he didn't whine before it happened.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*did you skip the line*

based on Tour record alone? I made clear reference to Migs Giro wins afterwards when referring to 'overall' status. But then again we could add WC or overall positions in classics, etc..., that is why I qualified mine as TOUR PALMARES ALONE
regarding attitude, "who gives a ___!" and what does that matter in their rankings?
as far as cycling gentlemanship yes MIg is #1 in Tour 5x winners.
Eddy and Hinault were both slave driving, S>O>B taskmasters, does that matter? I don't care that Lance, or Lemond whined. Hell Poulidor was probably one of the finest, most humble gentleman cycling has seen, and he has a heapful of also rans (and the French publics eternal adoration) to go with it. 
Big Mig was great, the Bjorn Borg of cycling. I'm never going to knock him, I'm not doing a personality test as this is SUBJECTIVE. Some people liked Mac and Jimmy Connors (or Nastase for that matter). some liked Laver and Borg, that is a subjective, personally I liked Borg. as I like Mig. 
Eddy was a tough man to ride with or for, but as for his 'public' personality he just let his legs do the talking. He's always been the man, but the images I think of most are him pinning it on the cobbles and mud as much or more than his legendary breaks in the Tours.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*and last yet*

Anquetil was petty and jealous of Poulidors public popularity. So much so that even when he couldn't win the Tour, he did everything in his power to ruin Raymonds chance. He had this guy beat and that still wasn't enough to allow him to give RP a day in the sun. Is this conduct becoming of a champion? Unfortunately so. Hinault's great quote after winning 5 " as he suffered for me, I will suffer for him" followed by absolute treachery that split La Vie Clare in 2. So in all reality Mig is the anomoly in the group. The rest of them are pretty much a bunch of [email protected]@rds but that's what got them where they are.


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## AJS (Aug 7, 2003)

Good points, junkie.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*thx*

I try to remain objective. Like I've stated I care more for the classics anyhow so I look at Tour prep more as a casual observer. It's funny that there's all this chat about the whole rockstar/donut/beer crap but no one saying anything about Jan having to drop out / retire from races and not make starts of races he's slated to do. If anyone appears to be 'off the program' it's the Kaiser. Mayo and Zubledia seem to be being quite stealthy, Tyler, Levi seem to be coming along. CSC.....doing great but who's gonna lead Basso, Julich? It maks me uderstand Tylers quote more about his transfer. Phonak made him KIng, CSC seems to be falling into what I believe will happen to TMob. Too many leaders not enough workers, they will be one of the top teams overall and in the Tour but I don't think this style in this era produces a tour winner.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*footnote: digression*

To venture further with analysis beyond Tour Palmares, Anquetil would leap frog both LA and Mig as he has more total GT victories, plus his 2 day super, pull an all nighter to get there, 1965 romp (Dauphine/Bordeaux -Paris) which to this day still stands as one of the most amazing feats in cycling, puts him far above them both. plus...and this is important, he did all this without it interfering with his drinking and revelry. He wasn't the 'my body is a temple' like most elite atheletes.
.....then again there is his admission to speed use.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

_andrew_ said:


> Hate to break it to you buddy but Armstrong isn't in the same league as Merckx and even Indurin
> Firstly consider Merckx won 11 grand tours armstrong 5, merckx 4 world championships armstrong 1, Merckx won at absolutely everything he entered where as armstrong only plays to win once per year. Merckx could do everything climb sprint time trial solo break, armstrong can only climb and time trial
> Merckx broke to embarass his opponents armstrong is too concerned with showing class or burning out. Merckx wanted to win everything he was the total package the total athlete
> 
> MERCKX IS A CYCLING GOD, THE BEST EVER WAS THE BEST THERE EVER WILL BE HANDS DOWN


While I don't think it's fair to compare atheltes from different decades, one could argue that Lance is a far better cyclist than Merckx. The reason why Merckx was able to do what he did is because he was head above shoulders with respect to other cyclists of his time. Nowadays cycling is a lot more competitive, and Merckx-like domination is simply not possible.

To give you an example from another sport - running, in 1952 Zatopek was able to win 5K, 10K and marathon IN THE SAME OLYMPICS, setting Olympic records in all three events, and that was his first marathon. He also set 18 world records and won 38 consecutive 10K races. 
In the 1920ies Paavo Nurmi dominated 1500, 5K and 10K distances, winning 9 gold medals in three olympics (including 5 golds in 1924).

So by this standard Zatopek and Nurmi are unsurpassed runners, much better than kenyan and ethiopian runners of today, right? I can safely bet that NOBODY will ever win three distance running gold medals at the same olympics, forget 5 golds. 

The only reason Merckx was able to ride one-day classics, grand tours and dominate all the time with breakaways, sprints and climbing is the same reason Nurmi and Zatopek were able to dominate so many events - they were better than their contemporaries.

Unfortunately, Nurmi and Zatopek cannot be compared to even B-class african runners of nowadays, and I am willing to bet that if you transported Merckx circa early 1970ies into today's world, there's no way he would be able to dominate the way he did back then.
Cycling is more subtle than running, because the times are not as important, and improvements in times can be blamed on improvements in equipment, but my guess is - 
Merckx of 1970 with today's equipment and training methods would be just another face
in the peloton, not much better than his son Axel. I doubt he would seriously challenge Lance, Ulrich, Hamilton, Vino, etc. The competitiveness of today's sport required specialization, one cannot stay in super-top shape year-around, one cannot be the best climber, the best time trialist and the best sprinter, there are too many people who are too good. 

The team tactics and support are much improved and are more important too, there's no way someone like Lance or Ulrich can be allowed to go in a breakaway, and there' s no way they can contest a classic open-road sprint (I know everything about Lance's stage win at Tour of Georgia, but come on...), because then they need to use their entire team the way Domina Vacanze does.

Every time I hear someone say "Lance is good, but if he won Giro-Tour-Vuelta triple, or perhaps tried to sweep the spring classics like Merckx did...", this just makes me laugh.
It's as if someone asked ethiopian runner Gebrselassie to go for a win in 5K, 10K and marathon in the same Olympics to match Zatopek, or require that ElGuerrouj enters 800, 1500, steeple, 5000 and 10,000 meter races to match Nurmi's feats from 1920ies.

Each sport becomes more and more specialized as it becomes more competitive and more professional. Which makes Lance's 5 TdF wins nowadays more impressive to me than 5 wins by Hinault or Merckx, simply because the field is more even and competitive nowadays than it was 30 years ago.

Ok, enough ranting, I hope I made my point, even if some of you are unaware of Nurmi/Zatopek/Gebrseassie/ElGuerrouj names...


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

To add, I don't see how one can say right now that Lance is bound to lose TdF-04 - the given reasons: it's never been done before, there's a 6-timer curse, Lance is too fat - are a bit ridiculous, especially when in the next sentence the poster claims that Ullrich and/or Hamilton will win instead, since neither Jan or Tyler were impressive so far in this season. Perhaps then Rebellin is hands-down favorite based on spring season? (meant as a joke).

Every year there are plenty of "predictors" who say that this year is the last year of Lance, and some year they will be right, but I haven't seen anything so far this year which would indicate that Lance's preparation is much worse than in previous years. One could argue this about last year, when he had crashed before, was sick going into TdF and had marriage problems. But this year he seems to be right on track. I suspect Jan's troubles are somewhat exaggerated too. (Did anyone notice how Kirsten Gum likes to bring up how fat Jan is - I've seen much fatter Jan who was nonetheless in top shape for TdF later in the year). Even Beloki who has been struggling as well will probably be back. 

No, I think we will see the same familiar faces from the past - Lance and Ullrich battling out for win, with Lance going in as a clear favorite in terms of preparation, ability and past record. Uphill time trial will favor those two as well. Tyler, Vino, Mayo, Beloki and Basso will battle out for third. Mayo and Beloki may not have the best team support, but the new time trial rule will bridge the gap to powerhouses like Team Mobile or US Postal. CSC actually seems to have a very strong team, but I suspect they will aim for stage wins (and they could take TTT win too!), since they have too many strong riders, but only Basso as a serious GC contender.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*while I agree with some of what you said*

Merckx today would be a top contender. Eddy was one of the first that serious scientific fitness tests were run upon. his lactic threshold, recovery, overall HR and lung capacity were as good in his peak (without all the modern training methods etc..) as Big Migs or Lances. IMHO an Elite athelete (some sports...running for example where potential top African/Central/South Americans weren't introduced to it yet.) of any era with all the coaching, training, diet and equipment would be just as competitive in any era. If you need further proof look at Merckx's 1 hr record. On a non-aero, heavy, non hi tech bike this record remains in the top10-15 only to be defeated by riders on crazy bikes (ie Moser), crazy positions (Obree, Boardman) and/or far lighter more high tech machines. The one hour record is one of the best measures as equipment is still a factor but far less of one. with modern coaching, disc wheels and wind tunnel testing I bet Eddy would still be top 5 at least. so I'll agree that it's doubtful Merckx would own cycling (one of his advantages over his contemporaries was his commitment to training whilst most were enjoying the 70's) like he did then, his dedication to training, pure desire to win and absolute fanaticism to bike fit, performance etc.. would put him amongst the best of any era. I would measure the same for all of the 5x winners. They may have not owned the peloton as they did then but I wouldn't bet against them. If not, Merckx's 1972 hour record would not have lasted as long as it did.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*and futher your further*

I agree about LA's prep. he's either right where he's supposed to be or slightly ahead. People tend to forget this guy counts every calorie he consumes. there hasn't been anyone so meticulous about training, diet, bike fit, position etc since...Merckx. I guess it's why they are friends, they have much in common. I'm gonna bet if LA's son goes into cycling he'll fair no better than Axel, kids aren't clones and they don't always inherit the perfect genetics of their parents.
but amongst the top, I'd say LA is the 'most on track', though Tyler is showing some form in Romandie. Agree about CSC, maybe they'll go for Team Trophy again, but don't forget a peaking Basso or Julich could be very competitive. They've both finished top 5 so they have the 'equipment' to ride at that level. I don't think TT up Alped'Huez will suit Jan, climbs that steep haven't been his forte.
don't forget Leipheimer as well. he's got serious potential if he doesn't crash. remeber he beat Heras in the Vuelta.


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## Steve-O (Jan 28, 2004)

*Mayo and Heras*

Reading this thread is getting me pumped up for the grand tours! (Fantasy cycling may play a part in this too!)...

I'd be curious to see what people think about Heras and Mayo's chances are this year at the TdF. Mayo had a good TT at Murcia (19 seconds down to Armstrong) and placed second overall in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. Heras is supposedly working hard on his TT ability too (see thread below). I think both these guys can beat Armstrong on the climbing stages and come close on the TT stages. 

Thoughts?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*well this year is their best shot*

with minimal TT (uphill TTing nullifies true TTers gig) Mayo and Heras (IMHO more Mayo) have decent shots at the podium. Don't forget Zubeldia as well, E.E. has a fine 1-2 punch. 
the one problem to toppling Armstrong is he can climb. He's won or nearly a few Mtn top stages so his climbing ability (even with the help of his team) is still nothing to laugh at. I actually think he'll finish close to or first at A.D.Huez, I feel this stage won't be as good for Jan. There are so many riders in the mix and they will be attacking like crazy. If I was Johan I'd make sure someone like Heras gets an early lead on GC. Have someone else do all the work those first 10-12 days before trying to take over. Saiz is a sucker for this and I'd play into it and have him burn his squad for your advantage. I wouldn't count out the other Americans either, and possibly Basso. Yes, pre tour hype rules, one sad or funny thing is there is not a Frenchman even worthy of comment.


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## LSchoux (Apr 1, 2004)

Steve-O said:


> I think both these guys can beat Armstrong on the climbing stages and come close on the TT stages.
> 
> Thoughts?


You got that right... safe 1 detail: They will not do it on a consistent basis.

See, in the 03 TdF Vino and Ulle were able to beat Lance on some stages... The key word is "some". I doubt that anyone (maybe T-Mobile) have the capability to consistently challenge Big Texin 04. I think besides Lance, Roberto may actually win l' Alpe... Ulle may win the 2nd TT but rest assured, the Texas Tornado will be way ahead in the GC. 

Mayo... 3rd or 4th in Paris.


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## AJS (Aug 7, 2003)

I'll go along with most of the Lance/Mayo/Basso/Heras/Jan picks here, but I'm still a-rootin' for Tyler.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*I'm going on a limb...I'm just having fun*

all US podium, Lance, Tyler, Julich with Levi in the top 10. it's too early to tell, we just have to see how the Kaiser comes along. Personally I think he should have stayed with Bianchi.
I think there are some troubles within DT.


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

Steve-O said:


> I'd be curious to see what people think about Heras and Mayo's chances are this year at the TdF.


I like Heras. He's a classy rider and what Armstrong said about him when he left Postal was despicible but expected from such a jerk. But there is no way Heras will win the Tour. The Alpe is not steep enough him to really shine. The long TT will destroy his chances. 

What is really sad is that Heras will probably spend the rest of his career trying and failing to win the Tour when he would have an excellent chance of winning the Giro. If the Vuelta continues with the crappy stage profiles used last year he'll have a better chance winning the Giro than the Vuelta.

Mayo's chances are unclear. He's still two to three years from reaching peak form for grand tours. Last year he just concentrated on stage wins. Concentrating on GC is very different. He could surprise. But he could just as well come in 10th.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

*all-american podium*



atpjunkie said:


> all US podium, Lance, Tyler, Julich with Levi in the top 10. it's too early to tell, we just have to see how the Kaiser comes along. Personally I think he should have stayed with Bianchi.
> I think there are some troubles within DT.


Last year people were bringing up all-american podium too. It's possible on the paper, but too many big shots have to fail while everything has to go perfect for 3 out of 4 americans to make it happen.

Looking at recent results seems like Phonak team is much stronger than I expected previously. They have some strong TT and climbers. If they all rally around Tyler, I think his chances are very, very good. 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

Levi and Julich are more of dark horses. Even if they are in tip-top shape, and there's some indication to that fact, I wonder about how much team support they are going to get.
Both CSC and Rabobank has a lot (almost too many) people who won't go for GC, but are capable of winning a stage in a breakaway (CSC: Jaksche, Piil, Sastre, Voigt, Bartoli. Rabobank: Boogerd, Dekker, Wauters, Rasmussen).

It's sort of like ONCE curse - too many strong riders, not enough to select a single leader. On top of everything, I suspect CSC will ride with Basso as the primary leader, and Julich as a secondary, in case Basso fails. 

One of the reasons USPS was so successful is that they abandoned sprinters and single-stage winner angle, or in fact any other angle except for Lance. It's a single-minded, focused team with just one objective - win yellow. Compare that to ONCE which had Beloki, Gonzalez-Degaldeano and a bunch of other similarly capable riders, or with Euskaltel, which puts a bunch of strong climbers with no TT support, or Telekom/T-mobile, which this year will go for sprinting (Zabel), as well as two podium contenders (Ulrich and Vino), and I suspect Vino wouldn't sit back and might go on the attack if he sees a possibility of the stage win, like he did last year. 

Ok, so I am rambling, but the point is - Levi and Julich have a shot at the podium IF and ONLY IF their respective teams treat them as team leaders and make getting them on the podium a #1 priority, overriding stage wins by other riders. In case of CSC it's further complicated by Basso being a top favorite for leader spot in my opinion.


A question for TdF history buffs - this year we have two of the previous year's TdF podium riders on the same team (Ulrich and Vinokourov). When was the last time this happened? I don't really know the answer...


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## Utah CragHopper (May 9, 2003)

MaRider said:


> A question for TdF history buffs - this year we have two of the previous year's TdF podium riders on the same team (Ulrich and Vinokourov). When was the last time this happened? I don't really know the answer...


 1997: Riis and Ullrich


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## CLTRD (May 3, 2004)

Armstrong
Hamilton
Ullrich
Basso
Petacchi
Mayo
Beloki?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*team pairs*

yes, Riis-Ullrich
Lemond-Hinault
Hinault-Lemond
as far as US podium like I said I'm just having fun. I did the same last year, without that stage 1 crash...who knows. With all the work Levi did for Dekker and co in the classics, I think Rabobank will return the favor. As long as his form is on. Phonak is built much akin to USPS so Tyler has a shot if he stays upright.


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## _andrew_ (Jan 2, 2003)

atpjunkie said:


> I agree about LA's prep. he's either right where he's supposed to be or slightly ahead. People tend to forget this guy counts every calorie he consumes. there hasn't been anyone so meticulous about training, diet, bike fit, position etc since...Merckx. I guess it's why they are friends, they have much in common. I'm gonna bet if LA's son goes into cycling he'll fair no better than Axel, kids aren't clones and they don't always inherit the perfect genetics of their parents.
> but amongst the top, I'd say LA is the 'most on track', though Tyler is showing some form in Romandie. Agree about CSC, maybe they'll go for Team Trophy again, but don't forget a peaking Basso or Julich could be very competitive. They've both finished top 5 so they have the 'equipment' to ride at that level. I don't think TT up Alped'Huez will suit Jan, climbs that steep haven't been his forte.
> don't forget Leipheimer as well. he's got serious potential if he doesn't crash. remeber he beat Heras in the Vuelta.


For someone to say that the heros of cycling past wouldn't be more than another rider in the peolton is niave and insulting to their fame. There is no difference/ increase in the calibar of riders today, they are the same as they were in the past. Merckx's physical stats were better than any rider ever, his lactic threshold was through the roof. Are you guys too rednecked to admit that there could be a rider with more natural talent than your beloved Lance Armstrong. Dont get me wrong i think he is a cycling superstar, and will be noted among the legends, however Lance has failed to dominate the way Merckx did in his prime. You can argue that Merckx pushed the emvelope in the way athletes are trained however so has armstrong, Merckx just had more natural tallent and a killer instinct. He wanted to win everything, he didn't care if sometimes he got caught on his suicide breaks but he fought to make things work


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*agreed*

read all my points on Merckx. I'm in absolute agreement and the 'science, LT etc..' plus his hour record shows it. Also I was thinking on this 'more specialized' concept. Look at Zabel (in his prime), granted not a GC threat but owned the Green Jersey, plus was usually at the top of the WC. This guy raced from Feb. to Sept. and maintained competitiveness throughout, so to say that a rider 'has to peak' only for certain portions of the season doesn't hold water when applied to Erik. He has won classics (Milan San Remo, etc..) sprint stages in all the Major GT's and been competitive in the Worlds in Sept. so a rider like Merckx is possible in todays era if they have the will. There are more risks, will make it harder to win GT's others are saving themselves for but this again points to Eddy's domination as he won classics, and still maintained enough form to win the Tours. Plus to say he was 'head and shoulders' above the rest is a slag to Poulidor, etc... who battled with him. I think Raymonds record shows his mettle, when compared to more recent 'eternal seconds' (Jan) he is as worthy or more.


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## _andrew_ (Jan 2, 2003)

LSchoux said:


> You got that right... safe 1 detail: They will not do it on a consistent basis.
> 
> See, in the 03 TdF Vino and Ulle were able to beat Lance on some stages... The key word is "some". I doubt that anyone (maybe T-Mobile) have the capability to consistently challenge Big Texin 04. I think besides Lance, Roberto may actually win l' Alpe... Ulle may win the 2nd TT but rest assured, the Texas Tornado will be way ahead in the GC.
> 
> Mayo... 3rd or 4th in Paris.


Lances victory last year was from his team... without the team time trial ulrich would have won, moreover ulrich was racing for a much weaker team last year, yet still managed to keep the race closer than he ever has. If Ulrich was racing for T Mobil last year he would have won the tour, throughout all the mountains he was the only Bianchi rider in the lead pack... With a stronger team, the team time trial will not be a race ruining event for ulrich, and he will be far stronger in the mountains, as he has a powerhouse team to suppport him, factors which i think will be more than enough to destroy armstrong and give ulrich another tour victory


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## _andrew_ (Jan 2, 2003)

*Dude what are you smoking*



CLTRD said:


> Armstrong
> Hamilton
> Ullrich
> Basso
> ...


Is that your podium????? if so what have you been smoking, petacchi couldn't climb a overpass letalone make it through the mountains... he is a sprinter like cipo there is no way he will have the legs to make it through the mountains. Basso is still to immature, he needs to develop more emotionally to win the tour. Hamilton's team isn't strong enough for him to come second, his heroics last year were suppoted greatly by having the best team in pro cycling this year top 5 would be a success for him. Ulrich may be up on the podium, but having to battle with his teammates for the team leaders position may be his downfall, that goes for Mayo as well. Don't get me started on Armstrong, just read my previous posts and you'll see why i don't think he'll be wearing yellow in Paris. And finially for Beloki, i haven't heard too much about him this season other than he's been having some problems with his knees. I also don't know whether a year is enough time to come back from a broken leg to contest it in a Grand Tour, maybe in 05...


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*aside from the team TT*

Jan didn't need a Team last year. Your team only comes into play if you are
A) defending a lead and controlling tempo
B) reeling in a dangerous break (part of A)
C) bringing you back to the lead group if you get dropped (mechanical, flat, crash, bonk, etc...)
D) send a teammate on a break ahead of group to then wait for GC honch (a la USPS in the 03 Vuelta)
since none of these happened, Jan was always able to hold lead group USPS did 'all the work' pretty much for everybody at the top. In reality every GC honch not defending the lead doesn't need 'climbing lietenants' a la USPS as they all use LA as their tempo man.
In reality this speaks volumes for the USPS Team as they are able to defend a lead for so long without an ONCE esque meltdown. The thing that saddens me is it's the climbers that get all the praise (more TV coverage in this part of race) and not the Roulers of the team. On a mountain stage last year USPS had 4 protected riders (LA, Heras, Beltran and Chechu) so that means George, Cruz, Floyd and co. (5 riders) did all the work to the base of the climb. it's amazing to see Hincapie taking the first big pull on a mountain stage as you know he's been 'pulling the train' up to the start of the 'drama' part of the race.
as I've stated it will be the most interesting tour if anyone else takes GC and then see how their team does defending it. No one ever gives enough props to the doms but USPS's over the years have always had a crack, well disiplined squad.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

_andrew_ said:


> Lances victory last year was from his team... without the team time trial ulrich would have won


Not true.

Lance was 1:01 ahead of Ulrich in final standings.
Binachi was 0:43 behind USPS in TTT.

So without team trial Lance still wins by 18 seconds.

Bianchi wasn't as weak of a TTT team as some people are trying to make it out to be. They took third in TTT behind USPS and ONCE and were well ahead of teams like Telekom or CSC.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*well don't confuse this debate with facts*

well done, and in congress with my points about team usage this should be put to bed. 
Speaking of facts, the only person to break Merckx's 1972 hour record on 'similar' equipment is Chris Boardman (who pretty much was a 1 hr and TT specialist) and he barely nipped Eddy's time. So to say Merckx wouldn't compete nowadays besides being heresy is just plain uninformed.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*Vino*

doesn't fit the 'modern specialist mode' arguemnet either. If so he wouldn't have been able to win Paris-Nice (miniTour), Amstel (Spring Classic), Tour de Swiss (minitour) and podium in the TdF. So it's truly not a 'rule' that a rider has to focus on a limited discipline.


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## rclements16 (May 3, 2004)

Utah CragHopper said:


> Big Mig is ahead of LA right now. Two Tour-Giro doubles outweigh his boring racing style and tilt the scale in his favor over LA's five Tours with no other grand tour attempts--let alone victories.
> 
> Big Mig was never a whiner. LA's rediculous excuses last year in preparation for a loss were pathetic. Lemond usually whined after or while something was happening; even he didn't whine before it happened.


I can't remember ... Did he loose. Oh, yeah, that's right he won .... five times straight.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

atpjunkie said:


> well done, and in congress with my points about team usage this should be put to bed.
> Speaking of facts, the only person to break Merckx's 1972 hour record on 'similar' equipment is Chris Boardman (who pretty much was a 1 hr and TT specialist) and he barely nipped Eddy's time. So to say Merckx wouldn't compete nowadays besides being heresy is just plain uninformed.


Atp,

we are in agreement on almost everything you said so far.

...Except the 1hr record thing. Merckx made it clear that 1hr record was as important to him as the TdF win. When Lance or Ulrich make similar prioritities we can compare them. 

For now all we can do is compare Chris Boardman at sea level at aerodynamic bike vs. Eddy Merckx at old-style "in the drops" gemetry but at Mexico city.

It's not even apples and oranges, more like grapes and watermelons.

Merckx is my hero too, but if you follow the trend from other sports (running, field of track&field, track cycling, swimming, and so on) it's difficult to argue that road cycling is so much different from all of this other sports in terms of specialization and competion.

There are no commonly contested records that last more than 30+ years. 
Havind said that, 1hr track running records are very old (both american - belonging to Bill Rodger and world - belonging to Arturo Barrios - are slower than what americans and world record runners respectively cover in 1 hour during half-marathon record distances. Why? Because 1 hour record is virtually not contested anymore in running, for the past 20 years or so. The same could be true about cycling record, since the best time trialists (Armstrong, Ulrich) don't contest 1Hour records, and performances of those who do (Indurain) are dismissed because of using different equipment.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*and even Eddy agrees*

to using new equipment. he compared it to making modern pole vaulters jump on bamboo. You can dismiss Mexico City but then we're going to have to dismiss a once long held Long Jump WR as well. Merckx wasn't the only one to ride there, Moser as well as others did so as well. Boardman was a TT specialist, he was a top TTer, multiple prologue winner and regardless of altitude he was only able to pip Merckx's speed by .013 kH. Granted he shattered it in the superman on a more aerobike but my point is, this record still remains competitive some 30 years after it was set, even when challenged by one of the greatest TTer in recent times (BigMig). all the modern challengers have had better training, diet, etc... and can barely top it or can't. I'm making this point as someone (I think you) said Eddy would be 'pack fodder' in todays peloton which is a load of nonsense. You keep bringing up track and field but this sport in the last few decades has seen an influx of 'new' talent (Kenyans for example) who didn't begin competing for this until recent times. What I'm saying here is changes in Track and Field has gone on a Logorhythmic Scale while cycling is on an arithmetic curve. Cyclists have/qre improved(ing) in far tinier increments over the last 30-40 years than other sports. If this wasn't the case Lemond wouldn't still hold a Tour TT record, which as we know is readily contested every year (in contrast to the hour mark).
I think the elites of cycling (Indurain, Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Lemond, etc..) in their prime (or before to give time for training) were transported into today and trained using todays methods they'd be battling the best of today (and possibly beating them).
I think a comparison amongst football and/or Soccer players is better. Would Walter Payton, Jim Brown, be a competitve running back today given modern training? Would Pele given the same circumstances make the Brazilian National Team? I think so, as there is far more than just the physical that makes a champ. I'm sure there are heaps of riders today with the physical capacities of LA but lack the mental toughness to get to the top.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

atpjunkie said:


> to using new equipment. he compared it to making modern pole vaulters jump on bamboo. You can dismiss Mexico City but then we're going to have to dismiss a once long held Long Jump WR as well. Merckx wasn't the only one to ride there, Moser as well as others did so as well. Boardman was a TT specialist, he was a top TTer, multiple prologue winner and regardless of altitude he was only able to pip Merckx's speed by .013 kH. Granted he shattered it in the superman on a more aerobike but my point is, this record still remains competitive some 30 years after it was set, even when challenged by one of the greatest TTer in recent times (BigMig). all the modern challengers have had better training, diet, etc... and can barely top it or can't. I'm making this point as someone (I think you) said Eddy would be 'pack fodder' in todays peloton which is a load of nonsense. You keep bringing up track and field but this sport in the last few decades has seen an influx of 'new' talent (Kenyans for example) who didn't begin competing for this until recent times. What I'm saying here is changes in Track and Field has gone on a Logorhythmic Scale while cycling is on an arithmetic curve. Cyclists have/qre improved(ing) in far tinier increments over the last 30-40 years than other sports. If this wasn't the case Lemond wouldn't still hold a Tour TT record, which as we know is readily contested every year (in contrast to the hour mark).
> I think the elites of cycling (Indurain, Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Lemond, etc..) in their prime (or before to give time for training) were transported into today and trained using todays methods they'd be battling the best of today (and possibly beating them).
> I think a comparison amongst football and/or Soccer players is better. Would Walter Payton, Jim Brown, be a competitve running back today given modern training? Would Pele given the same circumstances make the Brazilian National Team? I think so, as there is far more than just the physical that makes a champ. I'm sure there are heaps of riders today with the physical capacities of LA but lack the mental toughness to get to the top.


You make some good points, and I somewhat agree on these issues.
Nevertheless I would have liked to see what current top time trialists (mostly Jan and Lance) could do to 1HR record (old machines, new machines, superman positions, altitude, whatever...) if they made it as their top priority, on par with TdF.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*they mat break it*

but not by much. not enough to put Eddy into the 'pack fodder' category. Otherwise as stated Lemonds TT (TdF) record would not be standing for 18 years. Cycling records (like tracks mile marks) are creeping faster quite slowly. (that's an oxymoronic sentence if I've ever wrote one)


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## _andrew_ (Jan 2, 2003)

*Finially Somebody With Some Logic*



atpjunkie said:


> but not by much. not enough to put Eddy into the 'pack fodder' category. Otherwise as stated Lemonds TT (TdF) record would not be standing for 18 years. Cycling records (like tracks mile marks) are creeping faster quite slowly. (that's an oxymoronic sentence if I've ever wrote one)


Its good to hear another voice of reason. Its true that records are slowly getting faster, but so are our understanding of the human body and training it. I think it is a amazing testament to past champions that their records haven't been destroyed like in other sports, ie track. And yet with the best of modern science trying to refine top athletes fitness performances are not improving greatly over the past 20-30years. Another reason why there is improvement is the improvement in bike technology, even though the UCI restricts certian bike designs bikes are getting stiffer and made more efficient than ever before, also with the creation of ceramic computer designed berings/ hubs less power is lost because of the bike, and so naturally records will fall even if everything else is the same the bike can bring about records falling.


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## _andrew_ (Jan 2, 2003)

MaRider said:


> You make some good points, and I somewhat agree on these issues.
> Nevertheless I would have liked to see what current top time trialists (mostly Jan and Lance) could do to 1HR record (old machines, new machines, superman positions, altitude, whatever...) if they made it as their top priority, on par with TdF.


I think your arguement is a bit self contradicting as your saying that we can not compare Ulrich/ Armstrong's time trialling ability to Merckx because they haven't raced the hour. If they were to put it on par with the TDF they feel that they are jepordizing their chances. This wasn't a concern for Merckx, he won everything there was to win, and the hour record was just another stop along the way another record in the book for him, so before you say that ulrich and armstrong need dedicate their season to the hr record think back mreckx didn't so i think it would make a much better competition


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

atpjunkie said:


> but not by much. not enough to put Eddy into the 'pack fodder' category. Otherwise as stated Lemonds TT (TdF) record would not be standing for 18 years. Cycling records (like tracks mile marks) are creeping faster quite slowly. (that's an oxymoronic sentence if I've ever wrote one)


I still think there's a lot of "apples and oranges" and hypotheticals in terms of Merckx's 1HR record vs. what Ullrich or Lance coulda/shoulda done, but suppose I backpedal a bit and agree that Merckx wouldn't be too far behind Lance's or Ullrich's performances. What has changed dramatically though is the depth of the field, and that's the same factor that can be seen in other sports (marathon records improved by ~3 minutes in 20+ years, which is not much in terms of relative change, but now there are dozens if not hundreds of runners under the old record almost every year, and so on).
I think if you compared this to cycling, things might be similar - the top guys may be comparable to Merckx in terms of ability, but there are a lot more of them. 

Bottom line - I will never believe the peloton of today would allow Merckx to be as dominant as he was, to go into solo breakaways, dominate classics, sprints, climbs and time trials, all year-round as he used to do in the 70ies. That type of domination is forever gone, I am afraid. 

I also think that if Lance and Carmichael found a way to win Giro or Vuelta or a couple of classics without sacrificing their Tour chances, they would go for it. But they might understand that with the close rivals such as Ulrich (and many others), it's not practical.

People who expect Lance to win Giro and Vuelta, along with a bunch of spring classics, or to be going for solo breakaways, participate in sprints or polka dot competition are a little, well, naive. That's all I am saying. 

And taking into account competitiveness, specialization and strength of today's field, I would argue that winning 5 straight Tours is considerably more difficult nowadays (and will become more difficult yet in the future), than it was in the early 70ies.

Not to bring drugs into this discussion, but perhaps 1998 Festina scandal contributed a bit to Lance's wins in the following way - a lot of scientists argued that use of drugs actually levelled the playing field (not to justify the use of drugs, but as a factual statement), in other words weaker climbers would benefit more from EPO than talented climbers who have high red blood cell count to begin with. So it's possible that in terms of competitiveness of the peloton, early-to-mid nineties presented more difficulty for 5 straight wins, as compared to the peloton of today (yes, I am assuming drug testing is at least somewhat effective).


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

_andrew_ said:


> I think your arguement is a bit self contradicting as your saying that we can not compare Ulrich/ Armstrong's time trialling ability to Merckx because they haven't raced the hour. If they were to put it on par with the TDF they feel that they are jepordizing their chances. This wasn't a concern for Merckx, he won everything there was to win, and the hour record was just another stop along the way another record in the book for him, so before you say that ulrich and armstrong need dedicate their season to the hr record think back mreckx didn't so i think it would make a much better competition


No, I think you are only underscoring what I am trying to say.
Yes, Ulrich and Armstrong will have to sacrifice their Tour preparation, at least to a degree, in order to prepare for 1hour record. That, and the fact that 1 hour record is not as prestigious nowadays as it used to be. Which is probably why we will never find out how good they (and other guys) can really be. 

Read my other post regarding the competitiveness of the peloton back in those days vs. now. If we agree that the peloton of the 70ies wasn't as competitive as it is today, this would allow somewhat of a margin of error in Merckx's Tour de France preparation, and therefore more tolerance towards successful preparation towards 1hr record.

Merckx was head above shoulders better than riders of his time. Imagine Lance riding without Ullrich, without Beloki and without the next 5 guys. Or Ulrich without Lance and the next 5 guys. Then they would be capable of winning TdF relatively easily, and going to Giro and Vuelta and riding the classics and so on. The biggest advantage of Merckx was the field, not his ability.


"In his first year as a professional (1965) Eddy Merckx was asked the not unusual question for a neo-pro, "What are your principal ambitions as a racing cyclist?" The answer was immediate: "To win the Tour de France and set a new Hour record."
http://www.torelli.com/home.html?http://www.torelli.com/owen/eddyhour.html&1


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*points or counter to both*

Eddy did sacrifice the Tour for the hour. He skipped it 1972 in order to set the record and the Vuelta if memory serves me right. otherwise he would have won 6 in a row. 
to slag Eddy's competition is another thing
Ocana, Van Impe, Thevent, Poulidor amongst others were fine dominant riders (Ocana won the year Eddy skipped, Thevenet defeated him, Van Impe won multiple K.O.M's). so in general we could say on the whole the peloton was weaker but that in effect helps Eddy as he was more Mano a Mano with the competition without the help of a 'Team" to control tempo or breakaways. If you look at his 1969 solo break he dropped all the top riders, would be akin to having Lance do what Tyler did in the TdF except Tyler was partially reeled in by T-Mob which saved Vino's podium spot. Could you imagine a race leader doing what Tyler did and have no one able to respond because he's just that much faster?
we all forget Eddy descended like a stone, he could gain as much time going downhill as he could up and forced a would be victor (Ocana) into crashing trying to kep up.


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## MaRider (Mar 21, 2002)

atpjunkie said:


> Eddy did sacrifice the Tour for the hour. He skipped it 1972 in order to set the record and the Vuelta if memory serves me right. otherwise he would have won 6 in a row.
> to slag Eddy's competition is another thing
> Ocana, Van Impe, Thevent, Poulidor amongst others were fine dominant riders (Ocana won the year Eddy skipped, Thevenet defeated him, Van Impe won multiple K.O.M's). so in general we could say on the whole the peloton was weaker but that in effect helps Eddy as he was more Mano a Mano with the competition without the help of a 'Team" to control tempo or breakaways. If you look at his 1969 solo break he dropped all the top riders, would be akin to having Lance do what Tyler did in the TdF except Tyler was partially reeled in by T-Mob which saved Vino's podium spot. Could you imagine a race leader doing what Tyler did and have no one able to respond because he's just that much faster?
> we all forget Eddy descended like a stone, he could gain as much time going downhill as he could up and forced a would be victor (Ocana) into crashing trying to kep up.


Can I come back to my original point?
Some of us tend to measure up Lance according to Merckx's standards, which often results in "well, yeah, but Lance races only once a year" type comments.
But I am not confident Merckx would live up to his own standards, had he tried to race everywhere and everything nowadays. Not many riders attempt to be competitive at even two of the three grand tours. What happened to Simoni after he talked about showing Lance who the real climber is at the Tour last year? Simoni found out the hard way that the Tour is more competitive (or that it's difficult to peak in May and then peak in July). 
You'd think with Lance not riding Vuelta and Giro someone would try to clean up both, but that doesn't happen either. 

Whatever the reasons, the current results are - classics are dominated by classics riders (of Musseuw/Boonen type), Giro is dominated by Italian riders (what have Simoni or Garzelli or Popovych did last year aside from Giro?), Vuelta is full of spaniards (Heras, Nozal, Valverde).
Of the top 10 finishers in Vuelta, Giro and Tour there's only one name that appears in two lists - Mancebo who was 10th in Tour and 5th in Vuelta. So it's not just Lance who is not attempting all three tours (or even two out of three), NOBODY really does either.

The same goes for spring classics. Lance hasn't been doing them, but where were Beloki, Ullrich, Vino? Where was Mayo and Zubeldia? Tyler went for Tour of Romandie, but that's about it for major GC contenders. 

It's very rare to compete in everything nowadays, and as far as grand tours go, Tour is by far the most competitive of the three. Last year's fourth finish at the Tour brought Hamilton much more fame than podium finish at the Giro the year before. Ullrich could arguably win Giro/Vuelta double, yet he chooses to show up at the Tour every year - second there is better than Giro/Vuelta sweep. 

So in the end, I say we use the Tour as the measure of the top tour rider in the world, because that's where everyone shows up to race, it's not just french or italian or spanish race, it's everyone... In that sense Lance has proven that he is the best GC-type rider year after year after year. Just like in his time Merckx has proven that he is #1. And there cannot be anything better than being #1. True, it would be more impressive if Lance won a bunch of other races and tours, but at what price?


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*well Vino*

has been riding most the classics as well as Paris Nice. had he not got caught out the first day he may have podiumed or won again. I don't disagree about much of any of your points, cycling has gotten far more specific. Because of where the Giro falls ( ends about a month before the Tour) and because of Tour prep training the Giro is losing many top riders and their Teams. The Vuelta now has far better turnout in this case so it has usurped the iro in quality. The 'piano' pace of many Giro stages also makes it far easier. It wasn't shown in the TV coverage but most of the early break was aided by Domina Vacanze running a roadblock, keeping the pace slow so Cippo would have something left for the end. This never happens in the Tour and because of it the Maglia Rosa is losing some lustre. So if we all agree on using Tour alone (where I started a week or so ago) eddy still reigns supreme when you count Stage wins, days in Yellow, time gaps, multiple jeseys won, etc.. with the Badger in 2nd and LA is 3rd. Furthermore it had to have been 'harder' then on 23-26 lb bikes with 5 or 6 speed clusters and less help from their Teams. far less gear range/choices, less getting pulled by your squad and far more grit getting over those passes. I agree he may not have dominated now as he did then and may have had to specialize nowadays but if we could get them all in their prime, train them the same it would be a heck of a race and I don't think the modern riders would kill the likes of Merckx, Hinault and Anquetil. My whole point is given modern equipment and training methods, the cream would still rise to the top and not be 'pack fodder'.


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## AJS (Aug 7, 2003)

Merckx just won too much of a variety of races too often, on top of the TdF - on heavier & less efficient bikes, with different nutrition and training science - to _not_ be deemed The Best Ever. Lance just _wishes_ he was as good as The Cannibal.

What gets me about Lance is he's always got some excuse. Why doesn't he quit wimping out every May and go win a Giro for himself, AND the TdF just like Eddy and Hinault and Big Mig did, etc.

It sucks that the Giro is turning the way it seems to be lately. Of all the stage races it's generally been the #2 behind TdF. 

And Cipo ought to get his silly act out of the pro's. At 37, he's going to end up making a mockery of his palmares, (if he already hasn't yet), because he looks like he's just goofing off in the major races he enters now without any intention or real chance to win or even take a stage win. I like him Ok, but I've really gotten tired of his shtick the past coupla years.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*notes*

agreed on all points Eddy. and remember he rode a huge portion of his career after that gnarly crash where he says he never truly recovered 100% and then gets punched going for #6. granted it probably can nor ever weill be done again (Ma rider does have some good points about the changing face of cycling). Cippo crashed today....maybe out of the Giro, you may have got your wish. I didn't see the finish but I wonder (conspiracy theorist in me) if it's a way for him to bow out without having to get bludgeoned any more by Petachhi.


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## AJS (Aug 7, 2003)

I was watching the race this morning and saw the crash. Cipo didn't look like he had enough left for the last 50-100 meters, and so he was backing off when it looked like someone behind clipped him and he went down. Seems like a guy with his experience, especially that close to the line in a heavy and tight bunch sprint would know better than to let off the gas like he did. 

McEwen and Petacchi were just too much for the rest of the bunch today.

But yeah, I guess stranger things have happened and who knows, maybe Cipo was hoping to get out with some "accident"? He was really milking the injury once he got up and headed for the line, pedalling about as slow as he could. But it looked like he didn't have much more than some road rash on his knee/shin area. I'll bet it was nothing like when Museeuw got his leg torn up on the cobbles at Roubaix, which nearly ended his career. We'll have to wait and see...

I won't be surprised tomorrow if Phil, Paul, & Bob are talking about why Cipo's out of the race.


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## atpjunkie (Mar 23, 2002)

*ah Foret d Aarenburg (sp)*

saddest thing is it wasn't the crash that almost ended his career but Shite Euro medical treatment. they didn't properly clean the wound and then wrapped it. hmmmm dirty wound kept in a warm, dark, moist environment.......infection almost ended his career. can you say cellulitus? staph? gangrene? really made me smile when he did the knee point on the victory lap on the P-R Velodrome.
worst part for Cippo was the chainring to the shin, from the guy who hit him. he wants to do the Tour so I figure he's gonna suffer through, I really hope he takes a stage, just one more in each GT and call it a career cause there's a new sheriff in town and he rides a Blue Pinarello.


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## AJS (Aug 7, 2003)

I hope Cipo wins another stage or two as well, but if he doesn't he probably should really consider staying out of the TdF and Vuelta. ie: I hope he doesn't pull a Michael Jordan.


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